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Welcome everyone to the podcast edition
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of Wharton Moneyball here on the Wharton
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podcast network. This is Eric Bradlau,
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professor of marketing, statistics, and
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data science here at the Wharton School.
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Uh I'm joined every week by some
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combination of my co-host Kate Massie,
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Audi Winer, who should be joining me for
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a part of this show, and Shane Jensen.
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11 plus years we're here on Morton
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Moneyball. if you'd like a statistician
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reads the sports pages and u you know
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I've always said the best part of the
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show and there's Audi Winer joining in
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the best part of the show is that we get
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to uh interview people who have lived in
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the world of sports who are trying to
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make a difference in the world of sports
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and AI today is no exception. Uh we're
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joined by Wharton alum NFL alum founder
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of athletes.org Brandon Copelan who
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prefers to go by COPE. So, Cope, welcome
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to Wharton Moneyball.
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>> Thank you for having me. I appreciate
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you. It's always a a dream come true,
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literally to be um I guess deemed quote
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unquote important enough to speak on a
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Wharton platform because I know when I
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came in, I was like, "Wow." You know, I
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I didn't know what I got myself into and
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I've been blessed.
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>> Oh, Pope, you're a lifetime Wharton
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alum. That never goes away. You get the
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Wharton brand forever.
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>> Amen.
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>> That's spoken from another Wharton alum
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or penal.
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>> That's me. Well, now I'm a Wharton alum
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and a pen too. A pen parent as I cope
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and I spoke about off the air and the
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parent of a D1 athlete as Audi knows.
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You just saw my middle son out in San
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Francisco.
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>> I did and my wife is a Wharton alum as
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well. So, we have a lot of Wharton alums
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and
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>> in the group.
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>> Well, co there's so many things I'd like
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to talk to you about. Let me kind of go
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timewise forward. Um, can you talk about
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your time here? As I'm sure a lot of our
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listeners on Wharton Moneyball would
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just like to know, what was it like to
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be a D1 athlete here at the University
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of Pennsylvania? And, you know, how does
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someone from Penn make it all the way to
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the NFL? Because most of the time, I
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mean, there's some of us, but you know,
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most of the time people don't think
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about it that way. So, what was your
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time like here? And then tell us about
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your transition to the NFL.
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>> Absolutely. Well, when I came to Penn, I
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started there in 2009. July 25th, 2009
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was actually my first day on campus and
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I started in this program called
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Africana um to get out to campus early,
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start taking some classes, start getting
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adjusted, knowing where this building
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was and that building was and all of
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those types of things. And summer in
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Philadelphia is a great great place to
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be even as a a wideeyed freshman who has
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no idea what he's doing, frankly.
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>> Although, if I read correctly, you went
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to Gilman, right?
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>> Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean,
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obviously an extremely I assume that
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means you grew up in the Baltimore area
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somewhere.
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>> Yep. Yeah. So, I grew up in Oinks Mills,
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moved out to Sykesville, which is
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further away from Baltimore, and then my
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mom saw the opportunity we had to go to
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school like Gilman, and we ended up
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commuting every day back into Baltimore.
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But, um, my mother and and grandparents,
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they were, uh, and father were always
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about academics. And literally if if you
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know I tell young athletes this all the
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time if I did not have A's and B's I was
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not able to play right and it wasn't
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something I enjoy school I enjoy
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learning I enjoy growing my brain but it
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also my mom I always say my mama I don't
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play that. So um I I got to give her an
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incredible amount of of um praise for
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sticking to that and prioritizing that
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over everything. My grandfather, he
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played for 11 years in the NFL as well
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too with the Baltimore Colts. Won a
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Super Bowl um lost a Super Bowl to Joe
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Nameoth and the Jets. Won a Super Bowl
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against the Dallas Cowboys. But when
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your hero uh is also a former NFL player
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and he preaches grades and the fact that
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no one can ever take your brain away
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from you and things of that nature, um
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it makes it easy to go all in when it
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comes to learning, frankly. And so um
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again he actually was one of the people
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who made me feel comfortable and
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confident coming to a school like Penn.
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I remember being a junior at Gilman and
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walked into we had college counselors
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and uh I walked into that college
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counselor, Mr. Chris office for the
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first time and he said um hey I cope I
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think you I think you can consider a Ivy
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League school. And I was like Ivy League
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that's that's funny. I just want to play
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football. I want to go to a big-time
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school and play some football and things
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of that nature. And um my grandfather
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once he heard that, he imparted his
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wisdom on me and said, "Hey, listen um
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you're good enough to play in the NFL."
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And he always said this. He's he passed
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away January 6, 2019. But um I always
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remember he said, "You're good enough to
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play in the NFL, and I would never lie
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to you. Lying to you would be like lying
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to myself, and there's no point in ever
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doing that. Don't ever do that because
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you can't face your problems. You're
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good enough to play. Um, there's three
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things that can stop you and derail you
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because I've seen that derail most
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people's careers. Two of them are in
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your control and one of them is out of
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your control. It's women, it's drugs,
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and it's injuries. Okay? You have two of
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those three that you can control
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yourself. Injuries you can't necessarily
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do. But ultimately, he's the one who
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made me feel comfortable and confident
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going to a school like Penn, trying my
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best to become a quote unquote um big
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fish in a small pond, so to speak. And
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um he said, "If you're good enough,
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they'll come find you, and I believe
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you're good enough." And so that's what
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made me take the leap. And also, you
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know, not to get too longwinded here, my
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third to last game of my high school
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season, we played a team called Lyola.
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And for those in the Maryland area, you
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you know you know what that means. Um
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and ultimately a a teammate of mine got
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hurt. I was a captain of the team and
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they put me in on kick return, which I
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hadn't done kick return or special teams
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since seventh grade. Um and that was my
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first time doing it. And the next time I
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ever did it was actually in the NFL to
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fight for a job, oddly enough. But um I
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was in the kick return. I was on the
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wedge. Coach asked me to do it at
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halftime. I'm like, "Of course I'm
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captain. Let's do this." and one of my
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own teammates falls on the back of my
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leg and my ankle and it pops and I'm
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limping around for the rest of the
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season. It was third to last game of the
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season and ultimately um that's when I
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realized that everyone was right with
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that notion of you're one play away from
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having your entire career ripped away
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from you. So that also cemented the
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mindset of like let's go I have an
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opportunity to go to the Wharton School
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of Business. I have an opportunity to go
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to Penn. Let's go do it. And if I'm good
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enough, they'll come find me.
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>> And they did find you.
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>> Yeah, they did. Fortunately,
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>> how did that process work for you coming
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out of pen?
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>> Yeah. So, um, what a process. Um, I I
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I've never had a major injury while in
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college and while training for the pro
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day. Again, you will tell I can remember
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things pretty vividly, but January 21st,
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2013, I'm doing I'm squatting and I'm
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preparing for my pro day, six weeks
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before it, I'm squatting and I'm doing
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five sets of two of I had 545 pounds on
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the bar or 445 pounds on the bar and I'm
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trying to get big and strong, all that
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type of stuff. And literally on my last
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rep, last set, I come up and my knee
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just pops. And I'm at the pen weight
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room, we have mirrors, and my punter was
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spotting me. His name is Scott Leano,
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also my classmate. He ended up trying
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out with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But
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literally, my knee pops and it starts to
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cave in and everything just slows up and
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I'm just like, "Wow." Well, that's the
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end of this story. And I'm thinking this
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whole weight is going to come down on
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me. And then I look up and I see the
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punter spot me out of everybody that
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could have been spotting me. I'm like, I
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got the the skinniest guy.
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Fortunately, Fortunately, I was able to
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get it up, but um I literally had to
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have surgery. I had to have I tore my
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meniscus. That was what that pop was. I
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had to have my first knee surgery on
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February 1st, 2013. It was actually the
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same day of our football banquet. So, I
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had to I was a solo captain that year. I
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had to get up and do a speech. So, that
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morning, I get surgery. Dr. Brian sent
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it. um of the uh University of
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Pennsylvania uh sports medicine
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department uh operates on my knee and
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then later that evening we have the
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banquet. I do a speech and um I just
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remember with my crutches getting up
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there. I literally had six weeks to get
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prepared to have the best interview of
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my life and the fastest I've ever ran.
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Benched the most I've ever benched. And
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you know, technically a meniscus tear is
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a six week long rehab process. I mean,
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you see JJ McCarthy, who's, you know, a
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different caliber of athlete than I was,
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but he tore his meniscus before the
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season started and he sat out the whole
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NFL season. I had to get ready to run a
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fast 40 six weeks later on March 18th.
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Um, took three weeks of just doing upper
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body stuff and rehabbing and trying to
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do upper body crossfit to stay in shape.
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Took three weeks to try to run again and
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learn how to run again with, you know,
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less cushion in between my knees and
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joints and stuff like that. And
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fortunately, I went out there. We went
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to Villanova to do the pro day and um
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went out there and and I had a a good
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interview. I won't say it was the best
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of my life. It was still nervous. A lot
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of the things I was doing for the first
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time um full speed since the injury and
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fortunately scouts that came out there
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thought that I did well enough to
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warrant seeing more tape and more film.
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So, um, from that pro day on March 18th,
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then you go on a circuit of just doing
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workouts for different teams. I worked
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out with the Eagles. I worked out with
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the Ravens. And frankly, what you're
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just trying to do just for, you know,
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the the God's honest truth, for those on
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the outside looking in, you before you
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go into that process, you kind of
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understand where you're projected to go.
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And so if you're a first round draft
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pick projection, your job is don't mess
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this thing up, right? Don't don't run
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slow. Don't throw the ball all over the
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place and ruin your chances. You're
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undrafted projection like me. Your job
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is to, hey, how can I create some buzz
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and demand about myself that makes
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people feel like, again, the draft is
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all marketing. I I I want the Ravens to
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feel like the Browns may pick me one
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pick earlier, and then the the Bengals
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to feel like, well, I want them, too.
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and and so let's pick them in this
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round. And and so that was what we were
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trying to do. And you know, fortunately,
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uh before that draft, we had a lot of
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teams calling us, the Packers, the
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Colts, uh the Chiefs, the Ravens, and
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saying that, you know, they were
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interested, but ultimately on that day,
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no one was interested enough to actually
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pull the trigger and draft me. Um I
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remember having the family at the house.
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I lived at 3928 Sansom Street. Um, and
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you know, we had the family and friends
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at the house watching it and everything
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like that. And, uh, I remember being
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pissed that day, honestly. And I think
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that, frankly, that's that's my nature
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and character. Um, not not that I'm a
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pissed-off individual, but more so chip
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on the shoulder. it it's what fueled me
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to 10 years in the NFL because um
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although I was projected to be undrafted
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and dealt with some adversity, I felt in
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my heart that
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I even with a bum knee at the time
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outperformed some folks at the combine
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that they were drafting in the first,
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second, and third round. And so now that
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put me in a place where the chip was on
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my shoulder of like I am going to prove
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you wrong. I am going to prove you
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wrong.
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>> So Audi, go ahead and then I want to
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move on to his NFL days. I have some
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questions about analytics and his role
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in
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>> Yeah. So, so one of the things that and
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from the analytics perspective, we have
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a very hard time in across sports when
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trying to judge athletic performance
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when there's very strong levels of
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leagues. So in soccer, you have 42
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different leagues. Very hard to figure
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out, you know, who you can get. Um I
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would imagine they're sort of similar
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when you're trying to deal with sort of
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player who's played at Penn. you didn't
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really get to see you at the top level
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of uh performance. So, how does an NFL
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approach a a player coming from the Ivy
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Leagues? What are they doing to decide
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that they can play in the NFL? Is there
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is there measurements or is there I mean
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this is really this is a fascinating
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kind of analytic question. They can do
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combine like stuff but that seems to be
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rather incomplete. How do they how do
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you judge such a thing? Yeah, I think
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it's the toughest thing for those folks
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in those scouting departments because as
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my Dline coach told me before preparing
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for that, he said, "Listen, um, if
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you're a athlete at Bama, at the time
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Bama was killing it, right? Um, if
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you're an athlete at Bama, you and
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there's certain boxes you need to check
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to get into the NFL, right? You need to
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have good film. You need to have uh good
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testing at the combine. Run a good 40.
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Jump a good height. And you also need to
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be a good person off the field, right?
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Like we need to know that you're going
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to be available to play. Those are the
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three boxes. Um if you go to Bama, you
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may have good film and you may have a
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bad 40 and the NFL is more likely to
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say, "Okay, he doesn't have to check
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that box, right?" Or, you know, some
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combination of of of the three. Ivy
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League athlete, you better check every
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single box, right? Like there's no room
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for error. And so from their
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perspective, you know, I I talked to
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some of the scouts. I never really got
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super detailed in the analytics,
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although I did um I did get to see what
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I would like to try to do as many times
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as possible, see the other team scouting
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report of me, which not not isn't really
00:14:02
analytical of like what he does on third
00:14:04
down and this that and this. It's more
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so what you say about me as an athlete
00:14:09
and a player. Um,
00:14:11
but what they always said was, you know,
00:14:13
it was so tough to judge you because you
00:14:17
only played against, I think, two
00:14:20
tackles that made it in the NFL. Two or
00:14:22
three tackles that made it in the NFL.
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And, um, JC Tredder was one. Uh, Ben
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Eelana, who's a second round draft pick
00:14:31
from Villanova, was another. and um Greg
00:14:36
Van Roen who he hadn't panned out until
00:14:39
later on but he's now 12 or 13 years in
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the NFL um you know with I think the
00:14:45
Giants now but anyway that was always
00:14:48
the toughest thing and I think that from
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an analytical perspective you know what
00:14:53
analytics can fail to see at times is
00:14:58
the heart and the mind of an athlete and
00:15:02
for me that was one thing where I knew I
00:15:04
was always going to beat people out and
00:15:07
it it's not just in the pros but also in
00:15:10
college. I used to always tell athletes
00:15:12
like there is always going to be a time
00:15:14
where there's adversity and the cream
00:15:17
will rise to the top. There's some
00:15:18
people who can't deal with it. You get
00:15:20
hurt. Coach isn't playing you. some play
00:15:23
goes the wrong way and some athletes
00:15:25
I've seen time and time again will make
00:15:28
excuses for why they're not playing or
00:15:31
will try to use it as an excuse to oh
00:15:35
I'm not going to work as hard coach
00:15:36
doesn't care so I'm not going to work as
00:15:38
hard and I'm like you're only hurting
00:15:39
yourself and I always told myself year
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after year even in the NFL because it
00:15:44
happens in the NFL there's some athletes
00:15:45
who get there and they've never been
00:15:47
told no they've never been told you're
00:15:49
not good enough they've never had
00:15:51
somebody like hem them up on a bull
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rush. Just got to stay the course. Stay
00:15:55
the course. Stay the course. And I think
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that if analytics, and I'm not saying,
00:15:59
you know, you guys have your own, they
00:16:00
have their own process that clearly
00:16:02
works to build a multi-billion dollar
00:16:04
industry, but I would say how do you
00:16:07
look at how an athlete has dealt with
00:16:09
adversity to determine will they last in
00:16:14
this beast of a game? Because this thing
00:16:16
is literally mental. Like the NFL is a
00:16:18
when they say 90% mental, 10% physical,
00:16:22
that is what it is. I've watched grown
00:16:24
men quit in the middle of not only games
00:16:27
but also a season. You're like, you made
00:16:30
it. You done all the hard work. Why are
00:16:31
you quitting now? But mentally, you can
00:16:35
go insane just dealing with the politics
00:16:37
and the business and the money of of of
00:16:39
the NFL. So that would be my suggestion.
00:16:42
>> So co, before we talk about
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athletes.org, I want to talk about your
00:16:46
time in the NFL since you were there for
00:16:47
10 years since, you know, we can only
00:16:50
hope that analytics plays a role and
00:16:53
continues to play a role within the NFL.
00:16:56
Certainly, it's one of the sports that,
00:16:58
you know, lots of things can be
00:16:59
measured. You know, lots of things have,
00:17:01
you know, AI and lots of others have
00:17:03
worked on things like, you know, now
00:17:04
going for it on fourth down and, you
00:17:06
know, etc. Can you tell us in your
00:17:08
career what you saw the major roles of
00:17:12
analytics within your NFL career?
00:17:14
Whether it was in your own training,
00:17:16
whether it was in onfield decisions,
00:17:18
whether you know h how did you see it
00:17:20
being used?
00:17:21
>> Yeah. For game planning and and
00:17:24
preparation. So every single week we
00:17:26
come in and different teams structured
00:17:29
in different ways, but on Wednesday, you
00:17:31
know, if we come in and I'm on the
00:17:33
Patriots or the Jets or anybody, you
00:17:35
know, we're typically because on
00:17:37
Wednesday we're on P we're in pads,
00:17:38
we're typically going over first, second
00:17:40
down, some of the rundowns and short
00:17:42
yardage we do later in the week, but
00:17:44
we're starting to talk about what their
00:17:45
favorite runs are, right? Um, look,
00:17:49
ultimately you're using those analytics
00:17:51
and those statistics to start to figure
00:17:53
out, hey, on second and short, there's
00:17:55
some teams on second and short that 73%
00:17:58
of the time they're going to try to take
00:18:00
that as a a chance to to throw a deep
00:18:02
ball or to take a shot. There's some
00:18:04
teams on second and short, San Francisco
00:18:06
49ers in certain years, would say, "Hey,
00:18:09
we're just going to go get the first
00:18:10
down." Patriots sometimes we're just
00:18:12
going to go get the first down. Um, but
00:18:15
ultimately you're using those analytics
00:18:17
to help you play faster. You're trying
00:18:19
to figure out the tendencies not only
00:18:22
of, you know, there there's the onetoone
00:18:24
battle of, hey, I'm Brandon Copeland.
00:18:26
I'm the outside linebacker typically on
00:18:28
the left side. So this week I'm going
00:18:30
against Trent Williams or or Laramie
00:18:33
Tonsel and his tendency on third down is
00:18:36
to get out fast, right? there are
00:18:37
certain tendencies that that individual
00:18:39
player may have. But I also want to know
00:18:41
the tendencies that the offensive
00:18:43
coordinator may have. So in third and
00:18:46
short, is he doing play actions? Is he
00:18:48
doing crossing routes? Is he trying to
00:18:50
pick route me? Right? Like if they put
00:18:52
the running back out wide, what is that
00:18:54
running back likely to do? And and Greg
00:18:58
Williams was one of my deep
00:18:59
coordinators, and I love the way he put
00:19:00
it.
00:19:02
He said, "Your job as a football player
00:19:04
is to use your instincts to guess before
00:19:09
the snap whether it's run or pass." And
00:19:12
then once that ball is So I'm using my
00:19:15
instincts. Um, hey, the wide receiver
00:19:17
just did this on their gloves. Every
00:19:20
time Odell Beckham does that, it's a
00:19:22
pass. He doesn't do this to block,
00:19:24
right? or there's certain running backs
00:19:26
who would literally always look around
00:19:28
whenever it was a run trying to throw
00:19:30
you off, but they're really trying to
00:19:31
scan to see where they're going to be
00:19:33
doing certain things, right? So, I'm
00:19:35
using those tendencies to determine
00:19:36
whether it's a run or pass, but then I'm
00:19:38
also using the statistics that we
00:19:40
learned during the week before the
00:19:42
before we say ready break, right? I'm
00:19:45
looking at is third and two. I know
00:19:47
third and two they like crossing routes
00:19:49
and I'm using those statistics to
00:19:50
understand how can I play faster and
00:19:53
assume where the ball is going because
00:19:56
as a I think let me culminate in all
00:19:58
this Greg Williams would say anyone can
00:20:02
learn in statistics I pay you as a
00:20:04
football player to be an athlete and
00:20:06
react but before the snap you shouldn't
00:20:09
be playing both run and pass you should
00:20:11
be playing one so you think it's a run
00:20:14
go play run and then be an NFL player,
00:20:17
elite athlete, and react to pass if
00:20:20
you're wrong. And that's what will make
00:20:22
you special as a player.
00:20:24
>> That's really an interesting philosophy.
00:20:26
And obviously, Greg Williams has earned
00:20:27
his right to uh to have that opinion. So
00:20:30
tell us about your NFL career ends. H
00:20:33
tell us about athletes.org. First, tell
00:20:35
us tell our listeners here on Morton
00:20:37
Moneyball, what is athletes.org? Um how
00:20:40
did you make the transition from the NFL
00:20:42
to a co-founder of it? tell us about its
00:20:45
financial literacy aspects, its player
00:20:47
advocacy aspects. We we'd just love to
00:20:49
hear all about it in your own words.
00:20:51
>> Yeah, so uh first and foremost, what
00:20:53
athletes.org is is it's a players
00:20:56
association for college athletes. And if
00:20:59
you are following anything about the
00:21:02
college athletic space right now, you're
00:21:05
seeing a lot of chaos, what people will
00:21:08
say, or the wild wild west, so to speak.
00:21:10
Um, and what that wild wild west is, and
00:21:12
frankly some of it I think is a little
00:21:14
overblown to a certain extent, but the
00:21:16
wild wild west is because there are no
00:21:20
rules that can be enforced over college
00:21:23
athletes without violating antitrust,
00:21:26
right? So for years, the NCAA in 1959,
00:21:30
they created a term name called student
00:21:33
athlete. 1959 there was a football
00:21:35
player named Ray Dennison who played for
00:21:37
the Fort Lagus Fort Lewis Aggies um who
00:21:41
had a brain injury and he died and he
00:21:44
had a wife and three children. His wife
00:21:46
came to the NCAA trying to get workers
00:21:49
compensation to help cover for at that
00:21:52
time especially the male was the bread
00:21:54
winner of the family the worker of the
00:21:55
family and the NCAA came up with the
00:21:58
term student athlete. Walter Walter
00:22:00
Buyers was their leader then and student
00:22:03
athlete allowed for them to keep and
00:22:06
maintain amateurist an amateur status
00:22:09
for athletes and not workers
00:22:11
compensation like they would for an
00:22:13
employee.
00:22:15
That term which we all use and I use now
00:22:18
we at athletes.org call them college
00:22:20
athletes simply because of what that
00:22:22
term was born through. It's been used
00:22:25
other times to again have the NCAA avoid
00:22:28
doing what's right in my opinion for um
00:22:31
the people who help them generate
00:22:33
billions of dollars. Um but but
00:22:36
ultimately that term is similar to a
00:22:39
term in my opinion like NIL or name,
00:22:42
image, and likeness that has been
00:22:44
created to now finally pay college
00:22:47
athletes money. name image likeness came
00:22:51
about July 1st 2021 but it really came
00:22:54
from a Oannon versus NCAA case back in
00:22:57
2015
00:22:59
2016 is when it was decided I think he
00:23:02
started suit in 2012 to
00:23:04
>> be clear do you separate out you know
00:23:06
Eric Bradlow the booster giving cope
00:23:08
money from the university giving cope
00:23:11
money and how do you perceive like where
00:23:14
the money's coming from and what role
00:23:16
athletes.org or might play in that.
00:23:19
>> Yeah. So, I think what I'm giving you is
00:23:23
some context of how it's gotten here.
00:23:25
And I I'll answer that question, but I
00:23:28
think that basically be because athletes
00:23:31
are generating money now and right now
00:23:34
they're generating NIL money, money off
00:23:36
their name, image, and likeness, which
00:23:38
in every other field is a marketing
00:23:40
deal. Right? The way I tell people,
00:23:42
Patrick Mahomes, let's do Philly. All
00:23:43
right? I'm sorry, not Pat Mahomes.
00:23:45
Jaylen Herz. Okay, Jaylen Herz. We would
00:23:49
look at Jaylen Herz like he was crazy if
00:23:51
he did not make money from the Eagles
00:23:53
for throwing touchdowns to AJ Brown.
00:23:55
Right now, Jaylen Herz can make money
00:23:59
from the Eagles for performing on the
00:24:02
field, but then he can also go make
00:24:04
money from Beats by Dre and from Nike
00:24:06
and from Gatorade. And that's using his
00:24:08
name, image, and likeness to go get
00:24:09
marketing deals. Right now, what schools
00:24:12
have done since July 1st, 2021 is tried
00:24:14
to say, "Hey, athletes are still
00:24:16
amateurs. They're not paying for
00:24:19
performance because they're afraid that
00:24:20
would trigger employment status, but
00:24:22
we're paying them for their name, image,
00:24:24
and likeness. And so, they've been up
00:24:28
until this point recently, they've been
00:24:30
raising money from donors and
00:24:31
collectives to do marketing deals with
00:24:33
athletes, but really it's to play
00:24:34
quarterback and to play tight end and to
00:24:36
play outside linebacker, right? With
00:24:39
that being said,
00:24:41
that has also been a house of cards
00:24:44
because one, when athletes get hurt,
00:24:47
some schools aren't paying them. When
00:24:49
athletes aren't performing well, some
00:24:51
schools aren't paying them.
00:24:53
>> So, just to be clear, if if COPE has a
00:24:56
deal with Nike from his for his name,
00:24:59
image, and likeness, the money is
00:25:01
filtered through the University of
00:25:03
Pennsylvania. At least it has been
00:25:04
historically. Nike pays Penn and Penn
00:25:07
pays COPE,
00:25:09
>> right? That's what it's been since July
00:25:10
1st, 2021.
00:25:12
>> Now, because of the House settlement,
00:25:14
House v NCAA settlement, um, that just
00:25:17
was agreed upon and approved by Judge
00:25:20
Claudia Wilin in July.
00:25:23
Now, for the first time in history,
00:25:24
schools can pay cope directly. They
00:25:27
couldn't do that up until this point,
00:25:29
but now schools will literally
00:25:30
University of Maryland, University of
00:25:32
Pennsylvania, Georgia will be able to
00:25:34
pay an athlete directly for their name,
00:25:37
image, and likeness. Okay? So now the
00:25:39
money that they used to push to
00:25:40
collectives will now be coming through
00:25:44
the school to an athlete up until for
00:25:47
some schools $20.5 million for the year.
00:25:50
So that's like where we are today. What
00:25:53
is athletes.org's role in this right
00:25:55
now? One, there's no protection.
00:25:58
Actually, let me the easier way to say
00:25:59
this or explain it because it's easier
00:26:01
in NFL terms. The NFL negotiates with
00:26:05
the NFL players association and they are
00:26:07
partners in a multi-billion dollar
00:26:10
business. And because the NFL PA
00:26:13
represents all of the NFL players and
00:26:16
negotiates on things like what the
00:26:18
minimum compensation should be and what
00:26:20
the fine schedule is and hey if uh
00:26:23
practice can only be this amount of time
00:26:26
and our offseason has to be this length
00:26:28
and all these different rules and we as
00:26:30
players agree to that in a collectively
00:26:33
bargained agreement. Now you are able to
00:26:37
give the NFL antitrust exemption, so to
00:26:40
speak, right? Where now we're agreeing
00:26:43
to the rules that we play within and
00:26:45
we're agreeing to free agency. Anything
00:26:48
less than that without a CBA, the NFL
00:26:50
will be getting sued like the NCAA has
00:26:52
been because you're limiting my earning
00:26:54
potential by colluding to create some
00:26:57
rules of when I can transfer, when I
00:27:00
can't transfer, how much money I can
00:27:02
take, a salary cap, and things of that
00:27:04
nature. You're
00:27:06
>> This is an equivalent, but for college
00:27:08
players, does it cover
00:27:11
>> all schools, D1 schools, all sports, or
00:27:14
how how does athletes.org or work and
00:27:16
how does it how does who is the
00:27:18
collective? How about that?
00:27:19
>> Yeah. Yeah. So, right now we have 4,831
00:27:22
college athletes, current college
00:27:24
athletes in our organization.
00:27:26
700 of them over 2,700 are P4 men's
00:27:30
basketball, women's basketball, and
00:27:32
football players. Um the let me we're
00:27:35
we're on the Wharton podcast, so let's
00:27:37
talk business and talk money. And some
00:27:38
people don't like this, right? But I'm I
00:27:40
I want to be clear as I say this. I was
00:27:43
a University of Pennsylvania football
00:27:44
player. uh the the issues that I have
00:27:48
and the amount of money I earned pen,
00:27:50
which was probably nothing, uh is
00:27:53
totally different than what an Alabama
00:27:56
football player earns for his university
00:27:58
and the issues that an Alabama football
00:28:00
player has. And although we all deserve
00:28:03
to be treated fair, I'd be lying to you
00:28:06
all if I said that I was equally as
00:28:09
valuable as a University of Georgia,
00:28:11
University of Alabama football player to
00:28:13
their university. there different media
00:28:15
deals, different contracts and things
00:28:17
like that. And what people need to
00:28:18
understand is um the NFL is the most
00:28:21
popular sport in this country. The
00:28:23
second most popular is college football.
00:28:26
It is not the NBA. It is not the MLB. If
00:28:29
you look at the ratings list, the
00:28:30
analytics on the ratings, it's NFL
00:28:32
college football, period.
00:28:35
after that and and and because of that
00:28:39
the NCAA has been able to generate over
00:28:41
13 billion dollars of revenue every
00:28:43
single year and that is largely driven
00:28:46
by football. Okay. So I say all that to
00:28:50
say athletes.org we right now represent
00:28:53
all college athletes. We give them
00:28:55
benefits like pro bono legal services.
00:28:57
We got over 100 lawyers that literally
00:28:59
will review contracts for college
00:29:01
athletes for free right now. free
00:29:03
background checks, free mental wellness
00:29:05
resources, actors,
00:29:07
>> any individual can choose to be part of
00:29:09
your collective. It's not It's literally
00:29:12
individual by individual chooses to be
00:29:14
part of athletes.org.
00:29:16
>> Absolutely. 100%. Right now, it's 100%
00:29:19
free. We understand that as the market
00:29:23
evolves, there are different realities
00:29:25
out there where it may just be football
00:29:28
and men's basketball. Danny White, the
00:29:30
University of Tennessee AD, has a public
00:29:32
proposal out there that's saying that
00:29:34
football and men's basketball should
00:29:36
split split from the universities or or
00:29:40
become employees themselves and do a CBA
00:29:43
by themselves because that's where the
00:29:45
money is and it'll still provide enough
00:29:47
money for the other Olympic sports and
00:29:49
non-revenue generating sports to exist,
00:29:51
right? Athletes.org, Frankly, we have to
00:29:54
serve whomever that top tier athlete is
00:29:59
because they need to have a
00:30:02
representative, a real representative in
00:30:04
the multi-billion dollar negotiations
00:30:06
that exist. But we like to say, if you
00:30:08
don't have a seat at the table, you will
00:30:09
end up on the menu. And athletes ending
00:30:12
up on the menu has been what has caused
00:30:15
lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit
00:30:18
after lawsuit, which is unsustainable
00:30:20
for college athletics. and frankly a
00:30:23
waste of taxpayer dollars. A lot of the
00:30:25
money is going to these billion dollar
00:30:27
settlements for public institutions and
00:30:30
that money is coming from a lot of
00:30:31
federal funding as well too.
00:30:33
>> AI, you wanted to jump in?
00:30:35
>> Uh yeah. So one of my kind of uh pending
00:30:39
questions is really a prediction. So
00:30:42
much of the energy behind college
00:30:45
football is because of people attached
00:30:47
to the colleges, right? So if you think
00:30:49
about you mentioned a few other sports
00:30:52
um I I'll add a a quick correction. Um
00:30:55
one of the reasons why football is so
00:30:57
popular is there's so few games. So on
00:31:00
the on the per game basis football just
00:31:02
dominates. But if you actually add up
00:31:04
the number of people go to a major
00:31:05
league baseball game. It's way more than
00:31:07
go to a a football game just because
00:31:08
it's 162 of them in in a season. But but
00:31:12
take baseball from it. No one cares
00:31:13
about the minors. It's just like
00:31:14
whatever.
00:31:16
I mean, it's it's fun for the people who
00:31:18
go and they're they make money and
00:31:19
they're I don't want to totally belittle
00:31:20
them, but imagine what's a world look
00:31:22
like where college is essentially almost
00:31:25
disconnected and professionalized. Are
00:31:28
people going to care about it as much as
00:31:30
they do now because of the connection to
00:31:32
the the athletes as students? I mean,
00:31:34
somehow there's something that allows us
00:31:36
to relate to the students when they're
00:31:38
students that I wonder whether will be
00:31:40
lost when they are fully professional.
00:31:42
>> Yeah. I think you have to look at the
00:31:45
status quo, right? And and you know,
00:31:48
while my job isn't necessarily to try to
00:31:52
make it so that this is an attractive
00:31:54
product for the future to the fan, I do
00:31:56
believe that there's a win-winwin
00:31:59
in for all parties and and I think the
00:32:02
status quo right now, you have athletes
00:32:04
who are able to transfer every single
00:32:06
year if they want to. Um, you also have
00:32:09
athletes who So, you know, what loyalty
00:32:11
and affinity do they have? You also have
00:32:13
athletes. We just did a a meeting with
00:32:16
24 general managers of P4 schools, some
00:32:19
of the top 10, top 20 teams, and one of
00:32:23
the general managers in the room stated,
00:32:25
you know, he just got a transfer to his
00:32:27
university that's been in college for
00:32:29
three years and has never taken an
00:32:31
in-person class. And at their
00:32:33
university, they're going to make you
00:32:34
take an in-person class. So, I think
00:32:36
that, you know, for so long, you know, I
00:32:40
think the NCAA and schools have used the
00:32:44
whole, well, this is about academics and
00:32:47
education and developing the athlete
00:32:49
mantra as a shield when really I I don't
00:32:54
think at certain levels it's ever really
00:32:56
been about that. And and that is not me,
00:32:59
my opinion. That's like there's a number
00:33:02
of athletes who want to take a certain
00:33:04
major and the school won't let them or
00:33:07
the the team won't let them because it
00:33:08
conflicts with too many games or
00:33:10
classes. There's a number of athletes
00:33:11
who I know personally who wanted to hey
00:33:14
I wanted to be an engineer. I wanted to
00:33:16
take cyber security. I'd love to take
00:33:17
sports management but post made me take
00:33:19
sociology right or communications
00:33:22
because that fit with the schedule. what
00:33:24
value am I actually getting from this
00:33:26
degree I if this is what you're making
00:33:29
me do so that I can be prepared for
00:33:31
March Madness or whatever, right? Um so
00:33:34
that's one thing. Two, I you take as
00:33:37
recent as University of Florida men's
00:33:39
basketball team. Um there was a video
00:33:42
right after they won the national
00:33:43
championship this year and someone went
00:33:46
around the locker room said, "Hey, what
00:33:47
class is it went viral? What what class
00:33:50
do you have on Monday? What class do you
00:33:51
have tomorrow?" Right? or or tomorrow
00:33:53
when you get back to campus and
00:33:54
literally the answers it's kind of
00:33:57
disheartening. I don't know. I haven't
00:33:58
been to class in such and such online. I
00:34:00
I can't remember. Right. And while the
00:34:03
comments and the fans were laughing and
00:34:05
joking, you know, honestly,
00:34:08
>> I think with a true CBA, I think you can
00:34:11
incentivize and create rules and
00:34:15
frameworks that incentivize
00:34:18
high academic performance. And that's
00:34:20
something that we talked about this
00:34:21
weekend with the GMs in the room that
00:34:22
actually still care about that as well
00:34:24
too. I think that, you know, for for the
00:34:28
world out there, some folks believe that
00:34:30
it should be 100% focused on the
00:34:33
academics, but we have to also keep in
00:34:37
mind that for years, again, over 13
00:34:40
billion dollars generated annually. It
00:34:43
it's
00:34:45
your AD can change their life forever.
00:34:47
your coach can change their life
00:34:49
forever. It's okay for an athlete to be
00:34:52
able to financially change their life
00:34:53
forever early. And some people don't
00:34:56
like that. I, you know, I understand,
00:34:59
well, I don't understand why some people
00:35:00
don't like that, but I can understand
00:35:02
that it's new. It's different. But my
00:35:05
thought process has always been,
00:35:08
it's not my job to block your blessing.
00:35:11
You know, if you're very talented at
00:35:12
this, you also understand that
00:35:15
especially a sport like football, I
00:35:17
can't do it forever. I'm 30. I retired
00:35:18
at 32, right? Like, so if I could have
00:35:22
the extra four years of earning power
00:35:24
and potential, let me do it. And final
00:35:26
thing I'll say, and I'll give it back to
00:35:27
you, Audi, is is a lot of these athletes
00:35:30
in college, I mean, I'm on CNBC's Global
00:35:33
Financial Wellness Council. And what
00:35:36
that means is there was a lot of times
00:35:37
where I was doing conversations and
00:35:39
interviews about money and athletes with
00:35:41
their money and so many times people
00:35:43
said, "Hey, how come a lot of athletes
00:35:45
are going broke? How come, you know,
00:35:47
what about being an overnight
00:35:48
millionaire?" Well, if you look at some
00:35:50
of the teams I was on, you know, there's
00:35:53
people who played in bigger stadiums in
00:35:55
college and they do in the pros and they
00:35:57
sold out bigger stadiums in college than
00:35:59
we did. I remember look the Atlanta
00:36:01
Falcons. We never sold out a game, but
00:36:04
if you had that Bama, Georgia game, you
00:36:06
know, and Calvin Ridley is playing wide
00:36:08
receiver, that game is sold out. That
00:36:10
stadium is sold out. And so it is just
00:36:13
because he's in college doesn't mean
00:36:14
he's not able to earn money. That could
00:36:18
be a valuable lesson for them and stuff
00:36:20
like that. So again, I know that that's
00:36:22
not what you're saying, Audi, but that's
00:36:23
just me. Some of the things I hear in
00:36:26
the market sometimes.
00:36:27
>> Well, Cope, we'd like to thank you for
00:36:29
joining us today on Morton Moneyball.
00:36:30
We've been talking to Brandon Copelan,
00:36:33
uh, proud former Wharton School alum,
00:36:36
proud 10-year NFL alum, and maybe the
00:36:39
greatest chapter he's going to play in
00:36:41
his life, uh, which is as co-founder of
00:36:44
athletes.org. So, Brandon Formati and
00:36:46
myself, obviously, we're proud of
00:36:48
everything you've accomplished. Uh, keep
00:36:50
fighting for the college athlete.
00:36:52
They're they're worth it. And the the
00:36:54
way you talked about the impact on
00:36:56
people and their lives and their
00:36:57
communities is really inspiring to all
00:36:59
of us. So, thank you for joining us here
00:37:01
and thank you for the work that you're
00:37:02
doing.
00:37:02
>> Thank you guys so much for having me. I
00:37:04
appreciate you.
00:37:05
>> So, that's been Brandon Copelan. Uh,
00:37:07
please stay with us after the break and
00:37:09
still listen to us here on the Wharton
00:37:11
podcast network and Wharton Moneyball.
00:37:14
Welcome back to the remainder of our
00:37:15
show here on the Wharton podcast
00:37:17
network. This is Eric Bradlo, professor
00:37:19
of marketing, statistics, and data
00:37:20
science. I'm joined today with my
00:37:22
colleague, friend, longtime friend and
00:37:23
collaborator Audi Winer, professor of
00:37:25
statistics and data science. some
00:37:27
combination of the two of us, Shane
00:37:28
Jensen and Cade Massie are here every
00:37:30
week on the podcast edition of Wharton
00:37:32
Moneyball. Obviously, a great
00:37:34
conversation with Brandon Copeland Cop
00:37:36
about his both his pen days, his NFL
00:37:39
days, and athletes.org. Lots to talk to
00:37:41
him about. Um, there's some quick issues
00:37:43
I wanted to raise Audi that I've been
00:37:45
thinking about in the world of analytics
00:37:46
and wanted to get your reaction to them
00:37:48
in the like few minutes we have left of
00:37:50
the show. First, um, today's an
00:37:52
interesting day for the Yankees and I
00:37:54
wanted to get your take on it. So Aaron
00:37:56
Judge is coming off the DL today or IIL
00:37:59
today, 10day ILIL and they're going to
00:38:01
have him play DH. The problem is is that
00:38:04
uh Aaron Boon has already said Stanton's
00:38:06
not playing the outfield. So the problem
00:38:08
is that means Stanton cannot be the DH
00:38:11
and he's been crushing the ball lately.
00:38:13
So my my ask to you is can you tell our
00:38:16
listeners on Moneyball? If you were
00:38:18
purely making an analytics decision,
00:38:21
maybe he does cost you something in the
00:38:23
field, but maybe he gains you a lot more
00:38:25
with his bat. How would you think about
00:38:27
playing them both? Matter of fact, you
00:38:29
can imagine interaction effects with
00:38:31
Judge and Stanton in the lineup. Judge
00:38:33
is better, Stanton is better, and the
00:38:35
whole team is better. So, how would you
00:38:37
even think about it? Forget forget
00:38:39
whether Stanton can play the field. He
00:38:41
can play the field. We know he can play
00:38:44
the field, but how would you even think
00:38:46
about that as a decision from an
00:38:48
analytics perspective? Cuz I think he
00:38:50
should damn play Stanton the way he's
00:38:52
hitting the ball right now.
00:38:54
>> Well, the real issue is, I mean, why is
00:38:56
he not going to put Judge out in the
00:38:59
field? If Judge can't throw, then he
00:39:01
can't be in the field and maybe he's not
00:39:03
ready to come back yet. Um, the the
00:39:06
thing the difficulty with Stan is if
00:39:07
Stan is very streaky, right? So the no
00:39:10
the the the mean value of judge is
00:39:14
substantially higher at bat than the
00:39:16
mean value of Stanton. So
00:39:18
>> no one's saying Judge shouldn't Stanton
00:39:20
should play instead of Judge.
00:39:22
>> Right. Right. The question is you're
00:39:23
saying is should we get him out there
00:39:24
and be in the field and just hobble.
00:39:27
>> Yeah.
00:39:27
>> That the difficulty is that we're not
00:39:29
really sure how costly that is because
00:39:30
we don't put someone out there with legs
00:39:33
as poor as as Stanton out in say left
00:39:35
field, right?
00:39:36
>> Yeah. He'd have to be in left. you have
00:39:37
to be in left and you wonder what that
00:39:39
can cost you. I mean, if if he makes an
00:39:42
out, an extra out a game, that's
00:39:44
terrible in in the field and that
00:39:47
probably doesn't overwhelm what would
00:39:49
replace him at left field and at the
00:39:51
bat. Remember, the Yankees do have a
00:39:53
little bit of depth there. But I do like
00:39:55
your point about interaction. I think
00:39:56
one of the the the the sneakiest and
00:39:59
most overlooked aspect of baseball is
00:40:02
the interaction of players within a
00:40:04
lineup. And we're so used to just adding
00:40:06
a player's value, just the war or the
00:40:08
sum. Everything sums because no other
00:40:10
sport does that, right? You you can't do
00:40:12
that with basketball. You can't do that
00:40:14
with football. Everything is
00:40:15
interactive. And we we've gone so far
00:40:17
the other way that we just add up. You
00:40:19
know, we don't recognize that there's
00:40:20
interaction. And so you can have three
00:40:23
players who have the same kind of value
00:40:25
to a mean team, but in a different
00:40:28
lineup, they have tremendous um
00:40:30
interactions, which can create either
00:40:31
less value or more value. And I think
00:40:34
Stanton adds a lot of a lot to a Yankee
00:40:36
lineup with Judge in it. So I would
00:40:38
actually I think that I'm I'm kind of
00:40:40
agreeing with you. I'd rather see
00:40:42
Stanton out there in left hobbling
00:40:45
rather than or Judge hobbling. I'm not
00:40:46
sure who's worse.
00:40:47
>> Judge will get to the ball. He may not
00:40:49
be able to throw the guy out once he
00:40:50
catches the ball.
00:40:51
>> Right. I mean, I wonder do you know how
00:40:53
how bad his his his throwing arm is?
00:40:55
>> They don't really know. They just said
00:40:56
he's going to start besides hitting
00:40:57
today. He's going to play DH. They're
00:40:59
going to have him play catch in the
00:41:00
outfield. They actually don't know cuz
00:41:01
he hasn't thrown in the last 10 days.
00:41:03
They don't know if he can play the
00:41:05
field.
00:41:06
>> The other thing is is that you do have
00:41:07
Stanton as a pinch hitter which is and
00:41:09
you put him in every game so it's not
00:41:11
quite nothing, right? And that's and
00:41:13
that's the other thing I think that's
00:41:14
been undervalued in baseball as we shift
00:41:17
to this post um analytics world where
00:41:20
you have 13 pitchers and and um
00:41:23
everything is done sort of
00:41:24
programmatically with with these short
00:41:26
stints for the starters and the
00:41:27
relievers. Um, I think that we've missed
00:41:30
the value of having bench players um and
00:41:33
and having potentially Stanton not to
00:41:35
run but to pinch hit in in in a key
00:41:37
situation. So remember, think about that
00:41:39
now. You you're you're trading Stanton's
00:41:41
kind of random atbat for putting Stanton
00:41:44
in when you kind of need him, right?
00:41:46
Potentially that you can do that. And so
00:41:48
that has a little value as well.
00:41:49
>> That's a great point. You could play if
00:41:50
if he needs to bat for the number eight
00:41:52
spot or nine spot because that's where
00:41:54
he's valuable. you put him in and it's a
00:41:56
high leverage situation,
00:41:58
>> right? That could be the sixth inning if
00:41:59
you if you need to be or fifth inning.
00:42:01
>> I know you've spoken many times about no
00:42:04
need to save him for the ninth. If that
00:42:05
high leverage situation's in the sixth,
00:42:07
you bat him in the sixth.
00:42:09
>> But we since we're since it is the two
00:42:10
of us, we can talk about the Yankees
00:42:12
failures and and I I mean pin it
00:42:15
fundamentally on on the relief.
00:42:17
>> It's just terrible. No, it's just it's
00:42:20
just absolutely terrible and it's g, you
00:42:22
know, I'm not sure the Yankees I mean
00:42:24
there's a good story they don't make the
00:42:26
playoffs even as a wild card team.
00:42:27
>> Oh, I think they're they're third. I
00:42:29
think the Red Sox have passed them in
00:42:30
the East.
00:42:30
>> Red Sox have passed them
00:42:32
>> and and the thing is is that you watch
00:42:34
these games and I mean so Neil Payne,
00:42:36
you know, the incredibly versible,
00:42:38
prolific, insightful. He wrote this
00:42:40
beautiful article ranking a major league
00:42:42
baseball players teams based on their
00:42:44
deviation from Pythagoras and the
00:42:46
Yankees were laugh. Just remind people
00:42:48
what that is, which is we compute runs
00:42:50
scored. We compute runs against. You
00:42:53
square them. Runs scored over runs
00:42:57
scored. Runs scored squared divided by
00:43:01
runs scored squared plus runs against
00:43:03
squared. And that's a prediction of your
00:43:06
winning percentage. And so teams that
00:43:09
are neutral, meaning they score the same
00:43:10
as they uh give up, uh that's 50/50. And
00:43:14
then you know so the Yankees what you're
00:43:17
saying is the Yankees have a a plus p a
00:43:20
plus you know let's call it maybe they
00:43:22
score have scored 400 runs they've given
00:43:25
up 350 Pythagorean uh score would say
00:43:28
they should be winning 60% of their
00:43:30
games but they're winning 53%. So it's
00:43:32
that deviation that you're talking about
00:43:35
and typically a lot of that is
00:43:37
attributed to bad closing.
00:43:39
>> That's right or bad luck usually say. So
00:43:42
years ago, I remember that when I was
00:43:43
first teaching my first Moneyball class,
00:43:45
do you remember that season in I think
00:43:46
it was 2015 and by about twothirds of
00:43:49
the season, the Yankees had a a a
00:43:51
comfortable but but not tight le not not
00:43:54
large lead over Toronto and the Yankees
00:43:57
had a were performing exactly as
00:44:00
predicted. Their performance on the
00:44:01
field and winning percentage exactly
00:44:03
matched what would be predicted by their
00:44:05
Pythagorean. But the Blue Jays were way
00:44:08
underperforming in terms of their
00:44:09
winning percentage. And going forward,
00:44:11
it was it was a scary thought because
00:44:14
the Blue Jays were really clearly the
00:44:15
better team and they actually did win
00:44:17
the the division that that that year. So
00:44:19
you're looking at the Yankees and
00:44:20
usually you would say when you're
00:44:21
underperforming your Pythagorean, you
00:44:23
can expect better in the future
00:44:25
progression to the mean. But with the
00:44:26
Yankees, I somehow feel that the fact
00:44:28
that they're losing these close games
00:44:30
time after time after the game is the
00:44:32
hole in their entire organization is
00:44:34
just the the bullpen, the bullpen
00:44:36
management. And and of course, we listen
00:44:38
to Cope for a moment.
00:44:40
>> The the the winning drive. I don't know.
00:44:42
I've never been one to argue that that's
00:44:44
something that matters, right?
00:44:46
>> But watching this team lose lead after
00:44:48
lead,
00:44:49
>> you have to wonder.
00:44:50
>> Yeah. All right. Let me go to another
00:44:51
baseball player. I just Is he a Hall of
00:44:53
Famer? And I'm about to say who I am. Is
00:44:55
Schwarber a Hall of Famer? I mean, this
00:44:58
year now, he's got 40 and 94 right now.
00:45:02
40 home runs, 94 RBI. He has a world
00:45:04
champion. He was on that he was a rookie
00:45:06
on the Cubs team that won the title.
00:45:09
I've got to look I mean, maybe you could
00:45:11
look up his stats while we're talking
00:45:12
here. I mean, he he could easily end up
00:45:15
being a 500 home run guy. No,
00:45:17
>> he's got what 315 right now. Um, how
00:45:20
many has he got exactly? But in the low
00:45:22
threes. How many years does he have
00:45:24
left? I mean that that's the real
00:45:25
question.
00:45:26
>> He's actually he's only 32.
00:45:28
>> He's 32. Um so he's roughly the same age
00:45:31
as Harper Judge.
00:45:33
>> He's a year younger than Judge. He has
00:45:36
324 home runs and 746 RBI's. So it's not
00:45:43
great.
00:45:44
>> So I would say his odds are poor. Um but
00:45:48
not undoable. I mean, if he continues to
00:45:51
perform at a high level for three to
00:45:52
five years like this, hitting 30, 40
00:45:55
home runs, he'll be 500
00:45:57
and then if he hits 500, game in, man.
00:46:00
>> He gets 500 and500 RBI's, he's in the
00:46:02
home field.
00:46:03
>> For sure. Absolutely. I mean, that's 16
00:46:05
years of, you know, solid top of the
00:46:08
league home run.
00:46:09
>> You have to you have to average, you
00:46:10
know, if he you have to basically
00:46:11
average 30 and 100 over a 15ear span.
00:46:14
That's Hall of Fame.
00:46:15
>> I remember Shane wrote that little
00:46:17
research note about having the cut off
00:46:20
and he'd be over that cutoff pretty
00:46:21
easily.
00:46:22
>> Yeah, I think so. So, let me ask you a
00:46:24
sport. I know you don't follow a lot,
00:46:25
but how would you analytically think
00:46:28
about this? So, NovakJokovic we know is
00:46:30
38.
00:46:31
>> He lost to Wimbledon in the semi-finals.
00:46:34
>> The US Open's coming up in a couple
00:46:36
weeks. NovakJokovic is not playing at
00:46:39
all between the two tournaments. And so,
00:46:41
the rest people say, well, that's what
00:46:42
an older guy needs to do. the other
00:46:45
people are saying, you know, he's not
00:46:47
going to have any match readiness coming
00:46:49
into the US Open. Forget whether I mean,
00:46:52
you're not an expert in tennis. I'm not.
00:46:53
I mean, I I pretend to be an expert in
00:46:55
tennis, but how would you even think
00:46:57
about addressing that issue like which
00:47:00
is better, rest or match readiness? I
00:47:04
mean, you could just do a simple
00:47:04
empirical analysis, right, which is you
00:47:07
could measure all kinds of things, but
00:47:09
you know, I I would
00:47:11
>> that would be a that would be a
00:47:13
difficult study. This would be an exact,
00:47:14
you know, some some particular causal
00:47:16
inference type study.
00:47:18
>> That's the problem is that
00:47:19
>> can we do an instrumental variable or
00:47:21
something that predicts
00:47:21
>> not just that, but it's self- selected.
00:47:23
There's a reason he's choosing not to
00:47:25
play. And so the X's are not random and
00:47:28
correlated with some unobservable, which
00:47:30
is the standard problem that we have in
00:47:33
causal inference. And so, you know,
00:47:35
what's causing him to perform worse or
00:47:38
better? Who knows if it is? So, I think
00:47:41
we can only look back at at the macro
00:47:43
level and see the longevity of today's
00:47:46
superstars is monumental compared to
00:47:49
what they were when we were kids. Come
00:47:50
on.
00:47:51
>> I mean, think about Connors playing at
00:47:53
31. He was he was a grandfather in in
00:47:55
the
00:47:56
>> I know, but Connor's Connors Connors
00:47:57
made the semi-finals of the US Open at
00:47:59
age 39. He's the one exception.
00:48:02
>> He's the exception, but most of them
00:48:03
were done.
00:48:04
>> Empress was retired at 31.
00:48:07
Y remember retired at 26. Menroe never
00:48:11
won a major after age 28. I mean guys
00:48:14
were done by their early 30s.
00:48:16
>> Absolutely done. And and I think most
00:48:18
people attribute
00:48:20
the longevity to the rest the stretching
00:48:23
it out and of course nutrition and the
00:48:26
trainers and the the vast amount of
00:48:27
money that they make relative to what
00:48:29
they used to which allows them to skip
00:48:31
tournaments. I mean, they had to they
00:48:33
had to do all those tournaments in years
00:48:34
past just to make the living they needed
00:48:36
to make. Um, so I would I would say that
00:48:39
that if I had to just toss a coin based
00:48:41
on not knowledge, um, the rest is what
00:48:44
he needs and the readiness he can get by
00:48:47
volleying with his coaches and and
00:48:49
>> not just that, maybe the first two or
00:48:50
three matches are his readiness. He
00:48:52
should be able to beat me and you in the
00:48:53
first couple of rounds.
00:48:55
>> He can beat me and you playing doubles
00:48:57
against him.
00:48:58
>> All right. So, one last thing was about
00:48:59
the NBA. So, I didn't put this in a run.
00:49:01
I wanted you to guess. So, OKC obviously
00:49:03
is the defending champs, right, in
00:49:04
basketball.
00:49:05
>> I just recently looked today at their
00:49:07
odds of making the NBA Finals. So, not
00:49:10
winning, but going to the finals in the
00:49:11
Western Conference. Remember, Clippers
00:49:13
are in the Western Conference. The Mavs
00:49:15
are in the Western Conference. The
00:49:17
Nuggets are in the Western Conference.
00:49:18
The Lakers are in the Western
00:49:19
Conference. The Timberwolves are in the
00:49:20
Western Conference. What do you think
00:49:22
the betting odds are right now for OKC
00:49:25
to make the finals? So, just for our
00:49:28
listeners, if Audi thinks it's a third,
00:49:30
he would guess plus 200 roughly. If he
00:49:32
thought it was a quarter, he'd go plus
00:49:33
300. If he thought it was 20%, he would
00:49:35
go plus 400. What do you think the odds
00:49:38
are right now?
00:49:39
>> Them making the finals.
00:49:40
>> Making the finals.
00:49:41
>> Be the Western champion.
00:49:42
>> Western.
00:49:43
>> Um, I'd say plus 300.
00:49:45
>> Yeah. So, you're not that far off. I
00:49:46
would have guessed higher than it's plus
00:49:48
240. Um, how about who do you think is
00:49:51
the favorite in the East?
00:49:54
Uh, oh, by the way, I should say it's
00:49:55
plus 240 because they're giving they're
00:49:57
shorting you the odds. Remember, my odds
00:49:59
are what I would call fair.
00:50:01
>> Yeah. So, yours might actually equate to
00:50:03
a betting of plus 240 cuz they're not
00:50:05
even if the truth is plus 300, they're
00:50:07
not giving you plus 300. They give you
00:50:09
plus 240.
00:50:10
>> 240. So, so I think we're roughly in the
00:50:12
bulk part. So, what was your second
00:50:13
question?
00:50:14
>> Who's the uh Eastern Conference? Who do
00:50:16
you think the favorite is? And what's
00:50:17
their odds?
00:50:18
>> God, is it not the Celtics? Well,
00:50:20
remember Jason Tatum's out for the
00:50:22
season. Tornado.
00:50:23
>> He's out for the season
00:50:24
>> and they traded Porzingis,
00:50:27
>> right? Uh
00:50:28
>> so it's Jaylen Brown and me and you is
00:50:30
on the team right now.
00:50:31
>> Is it Knicks? No, it could be the
00:50:33
Knicks. It's the Knicks. Oh my god.
00:50:36
>> 700.
00:50:37
>> Yes. Yes. Exactly.
00:50:38
>> No. No. Just to show you
00:50:40
>> the Eastern Conference is essentially a
00:50:42
uniform distribution over the Cavs, the
00:50:44
Knicks, the Bucks, maybe the Celtics.
00:50:47
You know, who knows if the Sixers can
00:50:49
get their act together. you know, they
00:50:51
have some talent. Um, I just think it's
00:50:53
going to be I I was just interested by
00:50:55
that contrast. OKC in the stronger
00:50:58
Western Conference plus 240 and the
00:51:01
Knicks plus 700 in the weaker Eastern
00:51:04
Conference. It It seems
00:51:05
>> I love I love looking at betting odds
00:51:07
before the season starts. This is really
00:51:09
pretty far away because it's the season
00:51:10
just ended. Um, we should be talking
00:51:12
about the betting odds in football. I
00:51:14
did see a very interesting there was a
00:51:16
um betting odds on which team is most
00:51:18
likely to get the first round draft pick
00:51:21
and do you want to guess what the team
00:51:23
is?
00:51:25
>> I mean the first pick in the draft.
00:51:27
>> So basically the the
00:51:28
>> Yeah. Yeah. The team with the worst
00:51:30
record.
00:51:30
>> Yeah.
00:51:33
>> I've got to believe Cleveland's up
00:51:34
there.
00:51:36
>> So I don't remember the order but I just
00:51:37
noticed that that it was the Panthers.
00:51:39
So I was surprised at that given had
00:51:41
they had a great they had a great draft.
00:51:43
Um,
00:51:43
>> they had a great draft and they're in a
00:51:45
weakish division. I mean, the Bucks are
00:51:47
fine, the Falcons are fine, the Saints
00:51:50
are fine, but, you know, they're not in
00:51:53
the, you know, they're not playing the
00:51:55
Steelers, the Ravens, the, you know,
00:51:57
they're not in the, you know, I agree
00:51:59
with. And the Steelers, I agree with
00:52:01
that. Well, that's been another show
00:52:03
here on the Wharton podcast network of
00:52:05
Wharton Moneyball. Like to thank my
00:52:07
co-host today, Audi Winer. I'm Eric
00:52:08
Bradlo. Some combination of us, Shane
00:52:11
Jensen and Cade Massie are here every
00:52:12
week. Like to thank our producer,
00:52:14
Marissa Rener, our associate producer
00:52:15
and sound engineer, Dion Simkins.
00:52:18
Between now and next week, enjoy your
00:52:19
sports, enjoy your statistics, and we'll
00:52:21
see you next week here on Morton
00:52:23
Moneyball.
00:52:25
[Music]
