00:00:00
Welcome everyone to the podcast edition of Wharton Moneyball here on the Wharton
00:00:04
podcast network. This is Eric Bradlau, professor of marketing, statistics, and data science here at the Wharton School.
00:00:10
Uh I'm joined every week by some combination of my co-host Kate Massie, Audi Winer, who should be joining me for
00:00:16
a part of this show, and Shane Jensen. 11 plus years we're here on Morton Moneyball. if you'd like a statistician
00:00:23
reads the sports pages and u you know I've always said the best part of the show and there's Audi Winer joining in
00:00:30
the best part of the show is that we get to uh interview people who have lived in
00:00:35
the world of sports who are trying to make a difference in the world of sports and AI today is no exception. Uh we're
00:00:41
joined by Wharton alum NFL alum founder of athletes.org Brandon Copelan who prefers to go by COPE. So, Cope, welcome
00:00:52
to Wharton Moneyball. >> Thank you for having me. I appreciate you. It's always a a dream come true,
00:00:58
literally to be um I guess deemed quote unquote important enough to speak on a Wharton platform because I know when I
00:01:05
came in, I was like, "Wow." You know, I I didn't know what I got myself into and
00:01:10
I've been blessed. >> Oh, Pope, you're a lifetime Wharton alum. That never goes away. You get the
00:01:14
Wharton brand forever. >> Amen. >> That's spoken from another Wharton alum
00:01:18
or penal. >> That's me. Well, now I'm a Wharton alum and a pen too. A pen parent as I cope
00:01:24
and I spoke about off the air and the parent of a D1 athlete as Audi knows. You just saw my middle son out in San
00:01:30
Francisco. >> I did and my wife is a Wharton alum as well. So, we have a lot of Wharton alums
00:01:34
and >> in the group. >> Well, co there's so many things I'd like
00:01:38
to talk to you about. Let me kind of go timewise forward. Um, can you talk about
00:01:43
your time here? As I'm sure a lot of our listeners on Wharton Moneyball would
00:01:47
just like to know, what was it like to be a D1 athlete here at the University of Pennsylvania? And, you know, how does
00:01:54
someone from Penn make it all the way to the NFL? Because most of the time, I mean, there's some of us, but you know,
00:02:00
most of the time people don't think about it that way. So, what was your time like here? And then tell us about
00:02:04
your transition to the NFL. >> Absolutely. Well, when I came to Penn, I started there in 2009. July 25th, 2009
00:02:13
was actually my first day on campus and I started in this program called Africana um to get out to campus early,
00:02:20
start taking some classes, start getting adjusted, knowing where this building was and that building was and all of
00:02:26
those types of things. And summer in Philadelphia is a great great place to be even as a a wideeyed freshman who has
00:02:33
no idea what he's doing, frankly. >> Although, if I read correctly, you went
00:02:37
to Gilman, right? >> Yes. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, obviously an extremely I assume that
00:02:42
means you grew up in the Baltimore area somewhere. >> Yep. Yeah. So, I grew up in Oinks Mills,
00:02:48
moved out to Sykesville, which is further away from Baltimore, and then my mom saw the opportunity we had to go to
00:02:54
school like Gilman, and we ended up commuting every day back into Baltimore. But, um, my mother and and grandparents,
00:03:00
they were, uh, and father were always about academics. And literally if if you know I tell young athletes this all the
00:03:09
time if I did not have A's and B's I was not able to play right and it wasn't
00:03:14
something I enjoy school I enjoy learning I enjoy growing my brain but it also my mom I always say my mama I don't
00:03:20
play that. So um I I got to give her an incredible amount of of um praise for sticking to that and prioritizing that
00:03:31
over everything. My grandfather, he played for 11 years in the NFL as well too with the Baltimore Colts. Won a
00:03:37
Super Bowl um lost a Super Bowl to Joe Nameoth and the Jets. Won a Super Bowl against the Dallas Cowboys. But when
00:03:43
your hero uh is also a former NFL player and he preaches grades and the fact that
00:03:51
no one can ever take your brain away from you and things of that nature, um it makes it easy to go all in when it
00:03:58
comes to learning, frankly. And so um again he actually was one of the people who made me feel comfortable and
00:04:05
confident coming to a school like Penn. I remember being a junior at Gilman and walked into we had college counselors
00:04:12
and uh I walked into that college counselor, Mr. Chris office for the first time and he said um hey I cope I
00:04:19
think you I think you can consider a Ivy League school. And I was like Ivy League
00:04:24
that's that's funny. I just want to play football. I want to go to a big-time
00:04:28
school and play some football and things of that nature. And um my grandfather once he heard that, he imparted his
00:04:36
wisdom on me and said, "Hey, listen um you're good enough to play in the NFL."
00:04:42
And he always said this. He's he passed away January 6, 2019. But um I always
00:04:47
remember he said, "You're good enough to play in the NFL, and I would never lie
00:04:51
to you. Lying to you would be like lying to myself, and there's no point in ever
00:04:55
doing that. Don't ever do that because you can't face your problems. You're
00:04:58
good enough to play. Um, there's three things that can stop you and derail you
00:05:02
because I've seen that derail most people's careers. Two of them are in your control and one of them is out of
00:05:06
your control. It's women, it's drugs, and it's injuries. Okay? You have two of
00:05:12
those three that you can control yourself. Injuries you can't necessarily do. But ultimately, he's the one who
00:05:18
made me feel comfortable and confident going to a school like Penn, trying my best to become a quote unquote um big
00:05:25
fish in a small pond, so to speak. And um he said, "If you're good enough,
00:05:31
they'll come find you, and I believe you're good enough." And so that's what
00:05:33
made me take the leap. And also, you know, not to get too longwinded here, my third to last game of my high school
00:05:39
season, we played a team called Lyola. And for those in the Maryland area, you you know you know what that means. Um
00:05:47
and ultimately a a teammate of mine got hurt. I was a captain of the team and they put me in on kick return, which I
00:05:55
hadn't done kick return or special teams since seventh grade. Um and that was my
00:05:59
first time doing it. And the next time I ever did it was actually in the NFL to fight for a job, oddly enough. But um I
00:06:06
was in the kick return. I was on the wedge. Coach asked me to do it at halftime. I'm like, "Of course I'm
00:06:10
captain. Let's do this." and one of my own teammates falls on the back of my
00:06:13
leg and my ankle and it pops and I'm limping around for the rest of the season. It was third to last game of the
00:06:20
season and ultimately um that's when I realized that everyone was right with
00:06:27
that notion of you're one play away from having your entire career ripped away
00:06:32
from you. So that also cemented the mindset of like let's go I have an opportunity to go to the Wharton School
00:06:40
of Business. I have an opportunity to go to Penn. Let's go do it. And if I'm good
00:06:44
enough, they'll come find me. >> And they did find you. >> Yeah, they did. Fortunately,
00:06:51
>> how did that process work for you coming out of pen? >> Yeah. So, um, what a process. Um, I I
00:06:59
I've never had a major injury while in college and while training for the pro
00:07:05
day. Again, you will tell I can remember things pretty vividly, but January 21st,
00:07:11
2013, I'm doing I'm squatting and I'm preparing for my pro day, six weeks
00:07:16
before it, I'm squatting and I'm doing five sets of two of I had 545 pounds on
00:07:25
the bar or 445 pounds on the bar and I'm trying to get big and strong, all that
00:07:29
type of stuff. And literally on my last rep, last set, I come up and my knee just pops. And I'm at the pen weight
00:07:37
room, we have mirrors, and my punter was spotting me. His name is Scott Leano, also my classmate. He ended up trying
00:07:44
out with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But literally, my knee pops and it starts to cave in and everything just slows up and
00:07:51
I'm just like, "Wow." Well, that's the end of this story. And I'm thinking this
00:07:55
whole weight is going to come down on me. And then I look up and I see the punter spot me out of everybody that
00:08:00
could have been spotting me. I'm like, I got the the skinniest guy. Fortunately, Fortunately, I was able to
00:08:08
get it up, but um I literally had to have surgery. I had to have I tore my meniscus. That was what that pop was. I
00:08:14
had to have my first knee surgery on February 1st, 2013. It was actually the same day of our football banquet. So, I
00:08:19
had to I was a solo captain that year. I had to get up and do a speech. So, that
00:08:23
morning, I get surgery. Dr. Brian sent it. um of the uh University of Pennsylvania uh sports medicine
00:08:31
department uh operates on my knee and then later that evening we have the banquet. I do a speech and um I just
00:08:37
remember with my crutches getting up there. I literally had six weeks to get prepared to have the best interview of
00:08:44
my life and the fastest I've ever ran. Benched the most I've ever benched. And
00:08:50
you know, technically a meniscus tear is a six week long rehab process. I mean, you see JJ McCarthy, who's, you know, a
00:08:59
different caliber of athlete than I was, but he tore his meniscus before the season started and he sat out the whole
00:09:05
NFL season. I had to get ready to run a fast 40 six weeks later on March 18th. Um, took three weeks of just doing upper
00:09:13
body stuff and rehabbing and trying to do upper body crossfit to stay in shape. Took three weeks to try to run again and
00:09:20
learn how to run again with, you know, less cushion in between my knees and joints and stuff like that. And
00:09:26
fortunately, I went out there. We went to Villanova to do the pro day and um went out there and and I had a a good
00:09:32
interview. I won't say it was the best of my life. It was still nervous. A lot
00:09:36
of the things I was doing for the first time um full speed since the injury and fortunately scouts that came out there
00:09:45
thought that I did well enough to warrant seeing more tape and more film. So, um, from that pro day on March 18th,
00:09:54
then you go on a circuit of just doing workouts for different teams. I worked out with the Eagles. I worked out with
00:10:00
the Ravens. And frankly, what you're just trying to do just for, you know, the the God's honest truth, for those on
00:10:08
the outside looking in, you before you go into that process, you kind of understand where you're projected to go.
00:10:15
And so if you're a first round draft pick projection, your job is don't mess
00:10:19
this thing up, right? Don't don't run slow. Don't throw the ball all over the
00:10:25
place and ruin your chances. You're undrafted projection like me. Your job is to, hey, how can I create some buzz
00:10:32
and demand about myself that makes people feel like, again, the draft is all marketing. I I I want the Ravens to
00:10:39
feel like the Browns may pick me one pick earlier, and then the the Bengals to feel like, well, I want them, too.
00:10:44
and and so let's pick them in this round. And and so that was what we were trying to do. And you know, fortunately,
00:10:50
uh before that draft, we had a lot of teams calling us, the Packers, the Colts, uh the Chiefs, the Ravens, and
00:10:57
saying that, you know, they were interested, but ultimately on that day, no one was interested enough to actually
00:11:03
pull the trigger and draft me. Um I remember having the family at the house. I lived at 3928 Sansom Street. Um, and
00:11:12
you know, we had the family and friends at the house watching it and everything like that. And, uh, I remember being
00:11:18
pissed that day, honestly. And I think that, frankly, that's that's my nature
00:11:23
and character. Um, not not that I'm a pissed-off individual, but more so chip
00:11:28
on the shoulder. it it's what fueled me to 10 years in the NFL because um although I was projected to be undrafted
00:11:37
and dealt with some adversity, I felt in my heart that I even with a bum knee at the time
00:11:47
outperformed some folks at the combine that they were drafting in the first, second, and third round. And so now that
00:11:53
put me in a place where the chip was on my shoulder of like I am going to prove you wrong. I am going to prove you
00:11:59
wrong. >> So Audi, go ahead and then I want to move on to his NFL days. I have some
00:12:03
questions about analytics and his role in >> Yeah. So, so one of the things that and
00:12:07
from the analytics perspective, we have a very hard time in across sports when trying to judge athletic performance
00:12:13
when there's very strong levels of leagues. So in soccer, you have 42 different leagues. Very hard to figure
00:12:19
out, you know, who you can get. Um I would imagine they're sort of similar when you're trying to deal with sort of
00:12:24
player who's played at Penn. you didn't really get to see you at the top level
00:12:30
of uh performance. So, how does an NFL approach a a player coming from the Ivy Leagues? What are they doing to decide
00:12:37
that they can play in the NFL? Is there is there measurements or is there I mean
00:12:41
this is really this is a fascinating kind of analytic question. They can do combine like stuff but that seems to be
00:12:47
rather incomplete. How do they how do you judge such a thing? Yeah, I think it's the toughest thing for those folks
00:12:53
in those scouting departments because as my Dline coach told me before preparing
00:12:57
for that, he said, "Listen, um, if you're a athlete at Bama, at the time
00:13:02
Bama was killing it, right? Um, if you're an athlete at Bama, you and there's certain boxes you need to check
00:13:09
to get into the NFL, right? You need to have good film. You need to have uh good
00:13:14
testing at the combine. Run a good 40. Jump a good height. And you also need to be a good person off the field, right?
00:13:20
Like we need to know that you're going to be available to play. Those are the
00:13:23
three boxes. Um if you go to Bama, you may have good film and you may have a bad 40 and the NFL is more likely to
00:13:32
say, "Okay, he doesn't have to check that box, right?" Or, you know, some
00:13:37
combination of of of the three. Ivy League athlete, you better check every single box, right? Like there's no room
00:13:45
for error. And so from their perspective, you know, I I talked to some of the scouts. I never really got
00:13:50
super detailed in the analytics, although I did um I did get to see what I would like to try to do as many times
00:13:57
as possible, see the other team scouting report of me, which not not isn't really
00:14:02
analytical of like what he does on third down and this that and this. It's more
00:14:06
so what you say about me as an athlete and a player. Um, but what they always said was, you know,
00:14:13
it was so tough to judge you because you only played against, I think, two tackles that made it in the NFL. Two or
00:14:22
three tackles that made it in the NFL. And, um, JC Tredder was one. Uh, Ben Eelana, who's a second round draft pick
00:14:31
from Villanova, was another. and um Greg Van Roen who he hadn't panned out until
00:14:39
later on but he's now 12 or 13 years in the NFL um you know with I think the
00:14:45
Giants now but anyway that was always the toughest thing and I think that from an analytical perspective you know what
00:14:53
analytics can fail to see at times is the heart and the mind of an athlete and for me that was one thing where I knew I
00:15:04
was always going to beat people out and it it's not just in the pros but also in
00:15:10
college. I used to always tell athletes like there is always going to be a time where there's adversity and the cream
00:15:17
will rise to the top. There's some people who can't deal with it. You get
00:15:20
hurt. Coach isn't playing you. some play goes the wrong way and some athletes
00:15:25
I've seen time and time again will make excuses for why they're not playing or
00:15:31
will try to use it as an excuse to oh I'm not going to work as hard coach doesn't care so I'm not going to work as
00:15:38
hard and I'm like you're only hurting yourself and I always told myself year
00:15:42
after year even in the NFL because it happens in the NFL there's some athletes
00:15:45
who get there and they've never been told no they've never been told you're
00:15:49
not good enough they've never had somebody like hem them up on a bull rush. Just got to stay the course. Stay
00:15:55
the course. Stay the course. And I think that if analytics, and I'm not saying,
00:15:59
you know, you guys have your own, they have their own process that clearly works to build a multi-billion dollar
00:16:04
industry, but I would say how do you look at how an athlete has dealt with adversity to determine will they last in
00:16:14
this beast of a game? Because this thing is literally mental. Like the NFL is a when they say 90% mental, 10% physical,
00:16:22
that is what it is. I've watched grown men quit in the middle of not only games
00:16:27
but also a season. You're like, you made it. You done all the hard work. Why are
00:16:31
you quitting now? But mentally, you can go insane just dealing with the politics
00:16:37
and the business and the money of of of the NFL. So that would be my suggestion.
00:16:42
>> So co, before we talk about athletes.org, I want to talk about your time in the NFL since you were there for
00:16:47
10 years since, you know, we can only hope that analytics plays a role and continues to play a role within the NFL.
00:16:56
Certainly, it's one of the sports that, you know, lots of things can be measured. You know, lots of things have,
00:17:01
you know, AI and lots of others have worked on things like, you know, now going for it on fourth down and, you
00:17:06
know, etc. Can you tell us in your career what you saw the major roles of analytics within your NFL career?
00:17:14
Whether it was in your own training, whether it was in onfield decisions, whether you know h how did you see it
00:17:20
being used? >> Yeah. For game planning and and preparation. So every single week we
00:17:26
come in and different teams structured in different ways, but on Wednesday, you know, if we come in and I'm on the
00:17:33
Patriots or the Jets or anybody, you know, we're typically because on Wednesday we're on P we're in pads,
00:17:38
we're typically going over first, second down, some of the rundowns and short
00:17:42
yardage we do later in the week, but we're starting to talk about what their
00:17:45
favorite runs are, right? Um, look, ultimately you're using those analytics and those statistics to start to figure
00:17:53
out, hey, on second and short, there's some teams on second and short that 73%
00:17:58
of the time they're going to try to take that as a a chance to to throw a deep
00:18:02
ball or to take a shot. There's some teams on second and short, San Francisco
00:18:06
49ers in certain years, would say, "Hey, we're just going to go get the first
00:18:10
down." Patriots sometimes we're just going to go get the first down. Um, but
00:18:15
ultimately you're using those analytics to help you play faster. You're trying
00:18:19
to figure out the tendencies not only of, you know, there there's the onetoone
00:18:24
battle of, hey, I'm Brandon Copeland. I'm the outside linebacker typically on
00:18:28
the left side. So this week I'm going against Trent Williams or or Laramie Tonsel and his tendency on third down is
00:18:36
to get out fast, right? there are certain tendencies that that individual player may have. But I also want to know
00:18:41
the tendencies that the offensive coordinator may have. So in third and short, is he doing play actions? Is he
00:18:48
doing crossing routes? Is he trying to pick route me? Right? Like if they put the running back out wide, what is that
00:18:54
running back likely to do? And and Greg Williams was one of my deep coordinators, and I love the way he put
00:19:00
it. He said, "Your job as a football player is to use your instincts to guess before
00:19:09
the snap whether it's run or pass." And then once that ball is So I'm using my
00:19:15
instincts. Um, hey, the wide receiver just did this on their gloves. Every time Odell Beckham does that, it's a
00:19:22
pass. He doesn't do this to block, right? or there's certain running backs
00:19:26
who would literally always look around whenever it was a run trying to throw you off, but they're really trying to
00:19:31
scan to see where they're going to be doing certain things, right? So, I'm
00:19:35
using those tendencies to determine whether it's a run or pass, but then I'm
00:19:38
also using the statistics that we learned during the week before the before we say ready break, right? I'm
00:19:45
looking at is third and two. I know third and two they like crossing routes and I'm using those statistics to
00:19:50
understand how can I play faster and assume where the ball is going because as a I think let me culminate in all
00:19:58
this Greg Williams would say anyone can learn in statistics I pay you as a football player to be an athlete and
00:20:06
react but before the snap you shouldn't be playing both run and pass you should
00:20:11
be playing one so you think it's a run go play run and then be an NFL player,
00:20:17
elite athlete, and react to pass if you're wrong. And that's what will make
00:20:22
you special as a player. >> That's really an interesting philosophy. And obviously, Greg Williams has earned
00:20:27
his right to uh to have that opinion. So tell us about your NFL career ends. H tell us about athletes.org. First, tell
00:20:35
us tell our listeners here on Morton Moneyball, what is athletes.org? Um how did you make the transition from the NFL
00:20:42
to a co-founder of it? tell us about its financial literacy aspects, its player advocacy aspects. We we'd just love to
00:20:49
hear all about it in your own words. >> Yeah, so uh first and foremost, what
00:20:53
athletes.org is is it's a players association for college athletes. And if you are following anything about the
00:21:02
college athletic space right now, you're seeing a lot of chaos, what people will
00:21:08
say, or the wild wild west, so to speak. Um, and what that wild wild west is, and
00:21:12
frankly some of it I think is a little overblown to a certain extent, but the wild wild west is because there are no
00:21:20
rules that can be enforced over college athletes without violating antitrust, right? So for years, the NCAA in 1959,
00:21:30
they created a term name called student athlete. 1959 there was a football player named Ray Dennison who played for
00:21:37
the Fort Lagus Fort Lewis Aggies um who had a brain injury and he died and he had a wife and three children. His wife
00:21:46
came to the NCAA trying to get workers compensation to help cover for at that time especially the male was the bread
00:21:54
winner of the family the worker of the family and the NCAA came up with the term student athlete. Walter Walter
00:22:00
Buyers was their leader then and student athlete allowed for them to keep and maintain amateurist an amateur status
00:22:09
for athletes and not workers compensation like they would for an employee. That term which we all use and I use now
00:22:18
we at athletes.org call them college athletes simply because of what that term was born through. It's been used
00:22:25
other times to again have the NCAA avoid doing what's right in my opinion for um
00:22:31
the people who help them generate billions of dollars. Um but but ultimately that term is similar to a
00:22:39
term in my opinion like NIL or name, image, and likeness that has been created to now finally pay college
00:22:47
athletes money. name image likeness came about July 1st 2021 but it really came from a Oannon versus NCAA case back in
00:22:57
2015 2016 is when it was decided I think he started suit in 2012 to >> be clear do you separate out you know
00:23:06
Eric Bradlow the booster giving cope money from the university giving cope money and how do you perceive like where
00:23:14
the money's coming from and what role athletes.org or might play in that. >> Yeah. So, I think what I'm giving you is
00:23:23
some context of how it's gotten here. And I I'll answer that question, but I
00:23:28
think that basically be because athletes are generating money now and right now they're generating NIL money, money off
00:23:36
their name, image, and likeness, which in every other field is a marketing deal. Right? The way I tell people,
00:23:42
Patrick Mahomes, let's do Philly. All right? I'm sorry, not Pat Mahomes.
00:23:45
Jaylen Herz. Okay, Jaylen Herz. We would look at Jaylen Herz like he was crazy if
00:23:51
he did not make money from the Eagles for throwing touchdowns to AJ Brown. Right now, Jaylen Herz can make money
00:23:59
from the Eagles for performing on the field, but then he can also go make money from Beats by Dre and from Nike
00:24:06
and from Gatorade. And that's using his name, image, and likeness to go get marketing deals. Right now, what schools
00:24:12
have done since July 1st, 2021 is tried to say, "Hey, athletes are still amateurs. They're not paying for
00:24:19
performance because they're afraid that would trigger employment status, but
00:24:22
we're paying them for their name, image, and likeness. And so, they've been up
00:24:28
until this point recently, they've been raising money from donors and collectives to do marketing deals with
00:24:33
athletes, but really it's to play quarterback and to play tight end and to play outside linebacker, right? With
00:24:39
that being said, that has also been a house of cards because one, when athletes get hurt,
00:24:47
some schools aren't paying them. When athletes aren't performing well, some
00:24:51
schools aren't paying them. >> So, just to be clear, if if COPE has a deal with Nike from his for his name,
00:24:59
image, and likeness, the money is filtered through the University of Pennsylvania. At least it has been
00:25:04
historically. Nike pays Penn and Penn pays COPE, >> right? That's what it's been since July
00:25:10
1st, 2021. >> Now, because of the House settlement, House v NCAA settlement, um, that just
00:25:17
was agreed upon and approved by Judge Claudia Wilin in July. Now, for the first time in history,
00:25:24
schools can pay cope directly. They couldn't do that up until this point, but now schools will literally
00:25:30
University of Maryland, University of Pennsylvania, Georgia will be able to pay an athlete directly for their name,
00:25:37
image, and likeness. Okay? So now the money that they used to push to collectives will now be coming through
00:25:44
the school to an athlete up until for some schools $20.5 million for the year. So that's like where we are today. What
00:25:53
is athletes.org's role in this right now? One, there's no protection. Actually, let me the easier way to say
00:25:59
this or explain it because it's easier in NFL terms. The NFL negotiates with
00:26:05
the NFL players association and they are partners in a multi-billion dollar business. And because the NFL PA
00:26:13
represents all of the NFL players and negotiates on things like what the minimum compensation should be and what
00:26:20
the fine schedule is and hey if uh practice can only be this amount of time and our offseason has to be this length
00:26:28
and all these different rules and we as players agree to that in a collectively bargained agreement. Now you are able to
00:26:37
give the NFL antitrust exemption, so to speak, right? Where now we're agreeing
00:26:43
to the rules that we play within and we're agreeing to free agency. Anything
00:26:48
less than that without a CBA, the NFL will be getting sued like the NCAA has been because you're limiting my earning
00:26:54
potential by colluding to create some rules of when I can transfer, when I can't transfer, how much money I can
00:27:02
take, a salary cap, and things of that nature. You're >> This is an equivalent, but for college
00:27:08
players, does it cover >> all schools, D1 schools, all sports, or how how does athletes.org or work and
00:27:16
how does it how does who is the collective? How about that? >> Yeah. Yeah. So, right now we have 4,831
00:27:22
college athletes, current college athletes in our organization. 700 of them over 2,700 are P4 men's
00:27:30
basketball, women's basketball, and football players. Um the let me we're
00:27:35
we're on the Wharton podcast, so let's talk business and talk money. And some
00:27:38
people don't like this, right? But I'm I I want to be clear as I say this. I was
00:27:43
a University of Pennsylvania football player. uh the the issues that I have and the amount of money I earned pen,
00:27:50
which was probably nothing, uh is totally different than what an Alabama football player earns for his university
00:27:58
and the issues that an Alabama football player has. And although we all deserve to be treated fair, I'd be lying to you
00:28:06
all if I said that I was equally as valuable as a University of Georgia, University of Alabama football player to
00:28:13
their university. there different media deals, different contracts and things like that. And what people need to
00:28:18
understand is um the NFL is the most popular sport in this country. The second most popular is college football.
00:28:26
It is not the NBA. It is not the MLB. If you look at the ratings list, the analytics on the ratings, it's NFL
00:28:32
college football, period. after that and and and because of that the NCAA has been able to generate over
00:28:41
13 billion dollars of revenue every single year and that is largely driven by football. Okay. So I say all that to
00:28:50
say athletes.org we right now represent all college athletes. We give them benefits like pro bono legal services.
00:28:57
We got over 100 lawyers that literally will review contracts for college athletes for free right now. free
00:29:03
background checks, free mental wellness resources, actors, >> any individual can choose to be part of
00:29:09
your collective. It's not It's literally individual by individual chooses to be
00:29:14
part of athletes.org. >> Absolutely. 100%. Right now, it's 100% free. We understand that as the market
00:29:23
evolves, there are different realities out there where it may just be football and men's basketball. Danny White, the
00:29:30
University of Tennessee AD, has a public proposal out there that's saying that
00:29:34
football and men's basketball should split split from the universities or or
00:29:40
become employees themselves and do a CBA by themselves because that's where the
00:29:45
money is and it'll still provide enough money for the other Olympic sports and
00:29:49
non-revenue generating sports to exist, right? Athletes.org, Frankly, we have to
00:29:54
serve whomever that top tier athlete is because they need to have a representative, a real representative in
00:30:04
the multi-billion dollar negotiations that exist. But we like to say, if you don't have a seat at the table, you will
00:30:09
end up on the menu. And athletes ending up on the menu has been what has caused lawsuit after lawsuit after lawsuit
00:30:18
after lawsuit, which is unsustainable for college athletics. and frankly a waste of taxpayer dollars. A lot of the
00:30:25
money is going to these billion dollar settlements for public institutions and that money is coming from a lot of
00:30:31
federal funding as well too. >> AI, you wanted to jump in? >> Uh yeah. So one of my kind of uh pending
00:30:39
questions is really a prediction. So much of the energy behind college football is because of people attached
00:30:47
to the colleges, right? So if you think about you mentioned a few other sports um I I'll add a a quick correction. Um
00:30:55
one of the reasons why football is so popular is there's so few games. So on
00:31:00
the on the per game basis football just dominates. But if you actually add up the number of people go to a major
00:31:05
league baseball game. It's way more than go to a a football game just because
00:31:08
it's 162 of them in in a season. But but take baseball from it. No one cares
00:31:13
about the minors. It's just like whatever. I mean, it's it's fun for the people who
00:31:18
go and they're they make money and they're I don't want to totally belittle
00:31:20
them, but imagine what's a world look like where college is essentially almost
00:31:25
disconnected and professionalized. Are people going to care about it as much as they do now because of the connection to
00:31:32
the the athletes as students? I mean, somehow there's something that allows us
00:31:36
to relate to the students when they're students that I wonder whether will be
00:31:40
lost when they are fully professional. >> Yeah. I think you have to look at the
00:31:45
status quo, right? And and you know, while my job isn't necessarily to try to
00:31:52
make it so that this is an attractive product for the future to the fan, I do believe that there's a win-winwin
00:31:59
in for all parties and and I think the status quo right now, you have athletes who are able to transfer every single
00:32:06
year if they want to. Um, you also have athletes who So, you know, what loyalty and affinity do they have? You also have
00:32:13
athletes. We just did a a meeting with 24 general managers of P4 schools, some of the top 10, top 20 teams, and one of
00:32:23
the general managers in the room stated, you know, he just got a transfer to his
00:32:27
university that's been in college for three years and has never taken an in-person class. And at their
00:32:33
university, they're going to make you take an in-person class. So, I think that, you know, for so long, you know, I
00:32:40
think the NCAA and schools have used the whole, well, this is about academics and
00:32:47
education and developing the athlete mantra as a shield when really I I don't
00:32:54
think at certain levels it's ever really been about that. And and that is not me,
00:32:59
my opinion. That's like there's a number of athletes who want to take a certain
00:33:04
major and the school won't let them or the the team won't let them because it
00:33:08
conflicts with too many games or classes. There's a number of athletes who I know personally who wanted to hey
00:33:14
I wanted to be an engineer. I wanted to take cyber security. I'd love to take
00:33:17
sports management but post made me take sociology right or communications because that fit with the schedule. what
00:33:24
value am I actually getting from this degree I if this is what you're making
00:33:29
me do so that I can be prepared for March Madness or whatever, right? Um so that's one thing. Two, I you take as
00:33:37
recent as University of Florida men's basketball team. Um there was a video right after they won the national
00:33:43
championship this year and someone went around the locker room said, "Hey, what
00:33:47
class is it went viral? What what class do you have on Monday? What class do you
00:33:51
have tomorrow?" Right? or or tomorrow when you get back to campus and literally the answers it's kind of
00:33:57
disheartening. I don't know. I haven't been to class in such and such online. I
00:34:00
I can't remember. Right. And while the comments and the fans were laughing and
00:34:05
joking, you know, honestly, >> I think with a true CBA, I think you can incentivize and create rules and
00:34:15
frameworks that incentivize high academic performance. And that's something that we talked about this
00:34:21
weekend with the GMs in the room that actually still care about that as well too. I think that, you know, for for the
00:34:28
world out there, some folks believe that it should be 100% focused on the academics, but we have to also keep in
00:34:37
mind that for years, again, over 13 billion dollars generated annually. It it's
00:34:45
your AD can change their life forever. your coach can change their life forever. It's okay for an athlete to be
00:34:52
able to financially change their life forever early. And some people don't like that. I, you know, I understand,
00:34:59
well, I don't understand why some people don't like that, but I can understand
00:35:02
that it's new. It's different. But my thought process has always been, it's not my job to block your blessing.
00:35:11
You know, if you're very talented at this, you also understand that especially a sport like football, I
00:35:17
can't do it forever. I'm 30. I retired at 32, right? Like, so if I could have
00:35:22
the extra four years of earning power and potential, let me do it. And final thing I'll say, and I'll give it back to
00:35:27
you, Audi, is is a lot of these athletes in college, I mean, I'm on CNBC's Global
00:35:33
Financial Wellness Council. And what that means is there was a lot of times where I was doing conversations and
00:35:39
interviews about money and athletes with their money and so many times people said, "Hey, how come a lot of athletes
00:35:45
are going broke? How come, you know, what about being an overnight millionaire?" Well, if you look at some
00:35:50
of the teams I was on, you know, there's people who played in bigger stadiums in
00:35:55
college and they do in the pros and they sold out bigger stadiums in college than
00:35:59
we did. I remember look the Atlanta Falcons. We never sold out a game, but if you had that Bama, Georgia game, you
00:36:06
know, and Calvin Ridley is playing wide receiver, that game is sold out. That stadium is sold out. And so it is just
00:36:13
because he's in college doesn't mean he's not able to earn money. That could
00:36:18
be a valuable lesson for them and stuff like that. So again, I know that that's
00:36:22
not what you're saying, Audi, but that's just me. Some of the things I hear in
00:36:26
the market sometimes. >> Well, Cope, we'd like to thank you for joining us today on Morton Moneyball.
00:36:30
We've been talking to Brandon Copelan, uh, proud former Wharton School alum,
00:36:36
proud 10-year NFL alum, and maybe the greatest chapter he's going to play in
00:36:41
his life, uh, which is as co-founder of athletes.org. So, Brandon Formati and myself, obviously, we're proud of
00:36:48
everything you've accomplished. Uh, keep fighting for the college athlete. They're they're worth it. And the the
00:36:54
way you talked about the impact on people and their lives and their communities is really inspiring to all
00:36:59
of us. So, thank you for joining us here and thank you for the work that you're
00:37:02
doing. >> Thank you guys so much for having me. I appreciate you. >> So, that's been Brandon Copelan. Uh,
00:37:07
please stay with us after the break and still listen to us here on the Wharton podcast network and Wharton Moneyball.
00:37:14
Welcome back to the remainder of our show here on the Wharton podcast network. This is Eric Bradlo, professor
00:37:19
of marketing, statistics, and data science. I'm joined today with my colleague, friend, longtime friend and
00:37:23
collaborator Audi Winer, professor of statistics and data science. some combination of the two of us, Shane
00:37:28
Jensen and Cade Massie are here every week on the podcast edition of Wharton Moneyball. Obviously, a great
00:37:34
conversation with Brandon Copeland Cop about his both his pen days, his NFL days, and athletes.org. Lots to talk to
00:37:41
him about. Um, there's some quick issues I wanted to raise Audi that I've been
00:37:45
thinking about in the world of analytics and wanted to get your reaction to them
00:37:48
in the like few minutes we have left of the show. First, um, today's an interesting day for the Yankees and I
00:37:54
wanted to get your take on it. So Aaron Judge is coming off the DL today or IIL today, 10day ILIL and they're going to
00:38:01
have him play DH. The problem is is that uh Aaron Boon has already said Stanton's
00:38:06
not playing the outfield. So the problem is that means Stanton cannot be the DH and he's been crushing the ball lately.
00:38:13
So my my ask to you is can you tell our listeners on Moneyball? If you were purely making an analytics decision,
00:38:21
maybe he does cost you something in the field, but maybe he gains you a lot more
00:38:25
with his bat. How would you think about playing them both? Matter of fact, you can imagine interaction effects with
00:38:31
Judge and Stanton in the lineup. Judge is better, Stanton is better, and the whole team is better. So, how would you
00:38:37
even think about it? Forget forget whether Stanton can play the field. He can play the field. We know he can play
00:38:44
the field, but how would you even think about that as a decision from an analytics perspective? Cuz I think he
00:38:50
should damn play Stanton the way he's hitting the ball right now. >> Well, the real issue is, I mean, why is
00:38:56
he not going to put Judge out in the field? If Judge can't throw, then he can't be in the field and maybe he's not
00:39:03
ready to come back yet. Um, the the thing the difficulty with Stan is if Stan is very streaky, right? So the no
00:39:10
the the the mean value of judge is substantially higher at bat than the mean value of Stanton. So
00:39:18
>> no one's saying Judge shouldn't Stanton should play instead of Judge.
00:39:22
>> Right. Right. The question is you're saying is should we get him out there
00:39:24
and be in the field and just hobble. >> Yeah. >> That the difficulty is that we're not
00:39:29
really sure how costly that is because we don't put someone out there with legs
00:39:33
as poor as as Stanton out in say left field, right? >> Yeah. He'd have to be in left. you have
00:39:37
to be in left and you wonder what that can cost you. I mean, if if he makes an out, an extra out a game, that's
00:39:44
terrible in in the field and that probably doesn't overwhelm what would replace him at left field and at the
00:39:51
bat. Remember, the Yankees do have a little bit of depth there. But I do like your point about interaction. I think
00:39:56
one of the the the the sneakiest and most overlooked aspect of baseball is the interaction of players within a
00:40:04
lineup. And we're so used to just adding a player's value, just the war or the
00:40:08
sum. Everything sums because no other sport does that, right? You you can't do
00:40:12
that with basketball. You can't do that with football. Everything is interactive. And we we've gone so far
00:40:17
the other way that we just add up. You know, we don't recognize that there's
00:40:20
interaction. And so you can have three players who have the same kind of value to a mean team, but in a different
00:40:28
lineup, they have tremendous um interactions, which can create either less value or more value. And I think
00:40:34
Stanton adds a lot of a lot to a Yankee lineup with Judge in it. So I would actually I think that I'm I'm kind of
00:40:40
agreeing with you. I'd rather see Stanton out there in left hobbling rather than or Judge hobbling. I'm not
00:40:46
sure who's worse. >> Judge will get to the ball. He may not be able to throw the guy out once he
00:40:50
catches the ball. >> Right. I mean, I wonder do you know how how bad his his his throwing arm is?
00:40:55
>> They don't really know. They just said he's going to start besides hitting
00:40:57
today. He's going to play DH. They're going to have him play catch in the
00:41:00
outfield. They actually don't know cuz he hasn't thrown in the last 10 days.
00:41:03
They don't know if he can play the field. >> The other thing is is that you do have
00:41:07
Stanton as a pinch hitter which is and you put him in every game so it's not
00:41:11
quite nothing, right? And that's and that's the other thing I think that's
00:41:14
been undervalued in baseball as we shift to this post um analytics world where you have 13 pitchers and and um
00:41:23
everything is done sort of programmatically with with these short stints for the starters and the
00:41:27
relievers. Um, I think that we've missed the value of having bench players um and
00:41:33
and having potentially Stanton not to run but to pinch hit in in in a key situation. So remember, think about that
00:41:39
now. You you're you're trading Stanton's kind of random atbat for putting Stanton
00:41:44
in when you kind of need him, right? Potentially that you can do that. And so that has a little value as well.
00:41:49
>> That's a great point. You could play if if he needs to bat for the number eight
00:41:52
spot or nine spot because that's where he's valuable. you put him in and it's a
00:41:56
high leverage situation, >> right? That could be the sixth inning if you if you need to be or fifth inning.
00:42:01
>> I know you've spoken many times about no need to save him for the ninth. If that
00:42:05
high leverage situation's in the sixth, you bat him in the sixth. >> But we since we're since it is the two
00:42:10
of us, we can talk about the Yankees failures and and I I mean pin it fundamentally on on the relief.
00:42:17
>> It's just terrible. No, it's just it's just absolutely terrible and it's g, you
00:42:22
know, I'm not sure the Yankees I mean there's a good story they don't make the
00:42:26
playoffs even as a wild card team. >> Oh, I think they're they're third. I
00:42:29
think the Red Sox have passed them in the East. >> Red Sox have passed them
00:42:32
>> and and the thing is is that you watch these games and I mean so Neil Payne,
00:42:36
you know, the incredibly versible, prolific, insightful. He wrote this beautiful article ranking a major league
00:42:42
baseball players teams based on their deviation from Pythagoras and the Yankees were laugh. Just remind people
00:42:48
what that is, which is we compute runs scored. We compute runs against. You square them. Runs scored over runs
00:42:57
scored. Runs scored squared divided by runs scored squared plus runs against squared. And that's a prediction of your
00:43:06
winning percentage. And so teams that are neutral, meaning they score the same as they uh give up, uh that's 50/50. And
00:43:14
then you know so the Yankees what you're saying is the Yankees have a a plus p a
00:43:20
plus you know let's call it maybe they score have scored 400 runs they've given
00:43:25
up 350 Pythagorean uh score would say they should be winning 60% of their games but they're winning 53%. So it's
00:43:32
that deviation that you're talking about and typically a lot of that is attributed to bad closing.
00:43:39
>> That's right or bad luck usually say. So years ago, I remember that when I was
00:43:43
first teaching my first Moneyball class, do you remember that season in I think it was 2015 and by about twothirds of
00:43:49
the season, the Yankees had a a a comfortable but but not tight le not not large lead over Toronto and the Yankees
00:43:57
had a were performing exactly as predicted. Their performance on the field and winning percentage exactly
00:44:03
matched what would be predicted by their Pythagorean. But the Blue Jays were way
00:44:08
underperforming in terms of their winning percentage. And going forward, it was it was a scary thought because
00:44:14
the Blue Jays were really clearly the better team and they actually did win the the division that that that year. So
00:44:19
you're looking at the Yankees and usually you would say when you're underperforming your Pythagorean, you
00:44:23
can expect better in the future progression to the mean. But with the Yankees, I somehow feel that the fact
00:44:28
that they're losing these close games time after time after the game is the hole in their entire organization is
00:44:34
just the the bullpen, the bullpen management. And and of course, we listen to Cope for a moment.
00:44:40
>> The the the winning drive. I don't know. I've never been one to argue that that's
00:44:44
something that matters, right? >> But watching this team lose lead after lead,
00:44:49
>> you have to wonder. >> Yeah. All right. Let me go to another baseball player. I just Is he a Hall of
00:44:53
Famer? And I'm about to say who I am. Is Schwarber a Hall of Famer? I mean, this
00:44:58
year now, he's got 40 and 94 right now. 40 home runs, 94 RBI. He has a world
00:45:04
champion. He was on that he was a rookie on the Cubs team that won the title. I've got to look I mean, maybe you could
00:45:11
look up his stats while we're talking here. I mean, he he could easily end up
00:45:15
being a 500 home run guy. No, >> he's got what 315 right now. Um, how many has he got exactly? But in the low
00:45:22
threes. How many years does he have left? I mean that that's the real question.
00:45:26
>> He's actually he's only 32. >> He's 32. Um so he's roughly the same age
00:45:31
as Harper Judge. >> He's a year younger than Judge. He has 324 home runs and 746 RBI's. So it's not
00:45:43
great. >> So I would say his odds are poor. Um but not undoable. I mean, if he continues to
00:45:51
perform at a high level for three to five years like this, hitting 30, 40 home runs, he'll be 500
00:45:57
and then if he hits 500, game in, man. >> He gets 500 and500 RBI's, he's in the
00:46:02
home field. >> For sure. Absolutely. I mean, that's 16 years of, you know, solid top of the
00:46:08
league home run. >> You have to you have to average, you know, if he you have to basically
00:46:11
average 30 and 100 over a 15ear span. That's Hall of Fame. >> I remember Shane wrote that little
00:46:17
research note about having the cut off and he'd be over that cutoff pretty easily.
00:46:22
>> Yeah, I think so. So, let me ask you a sport. I know you don't follow a lot,
00:46:25
but how would you analytically think about this? So, NovakJokovic we know is 38.
00:46:31
>> He lost to Wimbledon in the semi-finals. >> The US Open's coming up in a couple
00:46:36
weeks. NovakJokovic is not playing at all between the two tournaments. And so, the rest people say, well, that's what
00:46:42
an older guy needs to do. the other people are saying, you know, he's not going to have any match readiness coming
00:46:49
into the US Open. Forget whether I mean, you're not an expert in tennis. I'm not.
00:46:53
I mean, I I pretend to be an expert in tennis, but how would you even think about addressing that issue like which
00:47:00
is better, rest or match readiness? I mean, you could just do a simple empirical analysis, right, which is you
00:47:07
could measure all kinds of things, but you know, I I would >> that would be a that would be a
00:47:13
difficult study. This would be an exact, you know, some some particular causal inference type study.
00:47:18
>> That's the problem is that >> can we do an instrumental variable or
00:47:21
something that predicts >> not just that, but it's self- selected. There's a reason he's choosing not to
00:47:25
play. And so the X's are not random and correlated with some unobservable, which
00:47:30
is the standard problem that we have in causal inference. And so, you know, what's causing him to perform worse or
00:47:38
better? Who knows if it is? So, I think we can only look back at at the macro level and see the longevity of today's
00:47:46
superstars is monumental compared to what they were when we were kids. Come on. >> I mean, think about Connors playing at
00:47:53
31. He was he was a grandfather in in the >> I know, but Connor's Connors Connors
00:47:57
made the semi-finals of the US Open at age 39. He's the one exception. >> He's the exception, but most of them
00:48:03
were done. >> Empress was retired at 31. Y remember retired at 26. Menroe never
00:48:11
won a major after age 28. I mean guys were done by their early 30s. >> Absolutely done. And and I think most
00:48:18
people attribute the longevity to the rest the stretching it out and of course nutrition and the
00:48:26
trainers and the the vast amount of money that they make relative to what they used to which allows them to skip
00:48:31
tournaments. I mean, they had to they had to do all those tournaments in years past just to make the living they needed
00:48:36
to make. Um, so I would I would say that that if I had to just toss a coin based
00:48:41
on not knowledge, um, the rest is what he needs and the readiness he can get by volleying with his coaches and and
00:48:49
>> not just that, maybe the first two or three matches are his readiness. He
00:48:52
should be able to beat me and you in the first couple of rounds. >> He can beat me and you playing doubles
00:48:57
against him. >> All right. So, one last thing was about the NBA. So, I didn't put this in a run.
00:49:01
I wanted you to guess. So, OKC obviously is the defending champs, right, in basketball.
00:49:05
>> I just recently looked today at their odds of making the NBA Finals. So, not
00:49:10
winning, but going to the finals in the Western Conference. Remember, Clippers are in the Western Conference. The Mavs
00:49:15
are in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are in the Western Conference. The Lakers are in the Western
00:49:19
Conference. The Timberwolves are in the Western Conference. What do you think the betting odds are right now for OKC
00:49:25
to make the finals? So, just for our listeners, if Audi thinks it's a third,
00:49:30
he would guess plus 200 roughly. If he thought it was a quarter, he'd go plus
00:49:33
300. If he thought it was 20%, he would go plus 400. What do you think the odds are right now?
00:49:39
>> Them making the finals. >> Making the finals. >> Be the Western champion.
00:49:42
>> Western. >> Um, I'd say plus 300. >> Yeah. So, you're not that far off. I
00:49:46
would have guessed higher than it's plus 240. Um, how about who do you think is
00:49:51
the favorite in the East? Uh, oh, by the way, I should say it's plus 240 because they're giving they're
00:49:57
shorting you the odds. Remember, my odds are what I would call fair. >> Yeah. So, yours might actually equate to
00:50:03
a betting of plus 240 cuz they're not even if the truth is plus 300, they're
00:50:07
not giving you plus 300. They give you plus 240. >> 240. So, so I think we're roughly in the
00:50:12
bulk part. So, what was your second question? >> Who's the uh Eastern Conference? Who do
00:50:16
you think the favorite is? And what's their odds? >> God, is it not the Celtics? Well,
00:50:20
remember Jason Tatum's out for the season. Tornado. >> He's out for the season
00:50:24
>> and they traded Porzingis, >> right? Uh >> so it's Jaylen Brown and me and you is
00:50:30
on the team right now. >> Is it Knicks? No, it could be the Knicks. It's the Knicks. Oh my god.
00:50:36
>> 700. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly. >> No. No. Just to show you >> the Eastern Conference is essentially a
00:50:42
uniform distribution over the Cavs, the Knicks, the Bucks, maybe the Celtics. You know, who knows if the Sixers can
00:50:49
get their act together. you know, they have some talent. Um, I just think it's
00:50:53
going to be I I was just interested by that contrast. OKC in the stronger Western Conference plus 240 and the
00:51:01
Knicks plus 700 in the weaker Eastern Conference. It It seems >> I love I love looking at betting odds
00:51:07
before the season starts. This is really pretty far away because it's the season
00:51:10
just ended. Um, we should be talking about the betting odds in football. I did see a very interesting there was a
00:51:16
um betting odds on which team is most likely to get the first round draft pick and do you want to guess what the team
00:51:23
is? >> I mean the first pick in the draft. >> So basically the the >> Yeah. Yeah. The team with the worst
00:51:30
record. >> Yeah. >> I've got to believe Cleveland's up there.
00:51:36
>> So I don't remember the order but I just noticed that that it was the Panthers.
00:51:39
So I was surprised at that given had they had a great they had a great draft. Um,
00:51:43
>> they had a great draft and they're in a weakish division. I mean, the Bucks are
00:51:47
fine, the Falcons are fine, the Saints are fine, but, you know, they're not in
00:51:53
the, you know, they're not playing the Steelers, the Ravens, the, you know, they're not in the, you know, I agree
00:51:59
with. And the Steelers, I agree with that. Well, that's been another show here on the Wharton podcast network of
00:52:05
Wharton Moneyball. Like to thank my co-host today, Audi Winer. I'm Eric Bradlo. Some combination of us, Shane
00:52:11
Jensen and Cade Massie are here every week. Like to thank our producer, Marissa Rener, our associate producer
00:52:15
and sound engineer, Dion Simkins. Between now and next week, enjoy your sports, enjoy your statistics, and we'll
00:52:21
see you next week here on Morton Moneyball. [Music]