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Itay Goldstein: Welcome everyone.
This is the <i>Future of Finance</i>
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podcast, <i>Future of Finance</i> miniseries
here at Wharton Sirius XM.
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I am Itay Goldstein. I am a
Professor at the Finance Department and the Chair of the
Finance Department here at
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Wharton. And today, we are going
to talk about a very exciting topic, the future of fintech.
Throughout the history of
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finance, technology has always
played a central role. We saw many technological advancements,
starting from ATM and going to
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credit cards. And usually we had
the incumbents in the finance industry adopting all these
technological revolutions. But
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what happened in the last ten
years or so has been a little different. And this is why it
got this name, fintech.
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Basically, what we saw was that
the pace of technological advancements has been much
faster than before. But maybe
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even more peculiar and more
exciting is the fact that a lot of the technologies are being
introduced from the outside,
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kind of trying to change the
structure of the industry and challenge the incumbents. And
this is why this fintech wave
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has been so exciting and
generated so much attention. Today, we have two excellent
guests to talk about these
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changes and what is on the
horizon when it comes to fintech. We have Alesia Haas,
who is the CFO of Coinbase.
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Hello, Alesia. Hello. Great to see you. And we have Michelle Lai, who is a Wharton alum and
key player in many of the crypto
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startups and innovations. Among
other things, she is a board member of Electric Coin
Corporation. Hello, Michelle.
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Nice to be here, everyone.
Although I'll say it's the Electric Coin Company.
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Electric Coin Company. Thank you very
much. So great to have you, Alesia and Michelle. And let's
dive right in. So we are all
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thinking about cryptocurrencies,
starting from Bitcoin, and then we had many other
cryptocurrencies, and still have
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them, and they sort of go up and
down. If you're looking at it from the point of view of an
outsider who is just hearing
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about it, seeing some of the
developments, but not fully understanding what's going on,
what can you say about crypto?
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Has crypto now become
mainstream? Is it about to become mainstream? Is it meeting
the expectations given what we
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had in mind when it started?
Alesia, let's start with you. Thank you, and thank you for
having me. So I think it is no
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longer debated whether crypto is
here to stay. That was a conversation we had ten years
ago. Is this niche? Today, it is
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solidified. It is a mainstream
asset class. And I think you can look to examples of this. The
ETF approvals that we had
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starting in January of this year
with the Bitcoin ETF, and then just this summer, with Ethereum ETF,
have now given crypto
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the official stamp of approval
from both regulators and major institutional partners, and
we've seen incredible engagement
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there. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have
become the fastest growing ETFs of all time. There were over $17
billion in net inflows, and we
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are seeing broad adoption. We're
seeing new capital flow into these ETFs. We can also point to
the number of people that own
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crypto, both in the US and
globally. Over 52 million Americans have transaction in
crypto. Four hundred million people
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around the globe. When you look
at the G20 countries, you can see that they are driving
regulation in their markets. You
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can see this with MiCA in the EU.
In the US, we have bipartisan support for crypto regulation,
even though we have not seen the
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approvals that we need here to
have comprehensive regulation here in the US. And then we get
into, like, new products like
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stablecoins. And layer two is
like Base, which is a— stable— I'm sorry, which is a protocol
that we've built on top of
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Ethereum, which enables fast,
cheap transactions. We are seeing huge developer activity
now building new apps on these
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protocols that enable fast,
cheap, easy to use fintech products. And this is what I
think will then become what
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really becomes daily
conversations, daily use cases. How do we use payments that are
fast, cheap, global? And we've
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seen developer activity. We saw
eight times sequential developer activity in Base in the middle
of the year. We saw growth in Q3.
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And so this is where we really
think that the future is going, to build these ubiquitous, fast,
cheap, global payment
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infrastructures. Great. Michelle, what do you
think about it from where you sit in the industry?
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I don't blame some people for
having doubt. We've gone through a lot of market cycles. Many
existential crises, the most
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recent one being, I think, 2022,
and a lot of the centralized crypto players went down. And
that's— that's when Itay and
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I first met, actually. And I
think growing out of that we— we have persisted. And to Alesia's
data points, we have regulators
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coming in. We have governments
wanting to implement CBDCs and a lot of other initiatives that I
see as indicators that the world
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now has moved on from asking if it
will stick around. You know, you have all your large financial
players, like PayPal, BlackRock,
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Franklin Templeton, even UBS, a
couple of days ago, making their mark in the industry. And these
are organizations that don't
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change their minds very often on
the big things. So you both mentioned that this
is here to stay. It's kind of
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now a fact on the ground. It's
big, there are a lot of people paying attention to it, trading
it, investing in it. But I think
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the main question that comes to
mind is, how exactly is it going to change the financial system?
Is this going to make consumers'
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lives easier in any way? Is this
going to reform the way that we are doing payment, the way that
we are consuming and paying for
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things? So what should we expect
going forward from fintech and from cryptocurrency more
specifically?
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This is the first time that
we've seen a new payment rail. So much of the innovation over
the last couple of decades has
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been better user experiences.
Front end technology. But they've been going through
similar back end rails. Now
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we're innovating from the rails
up, and that is what I think is going to transform the next
generation. One of the things
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that we talk about as we've
moved from the internet standpoint, as we were offline,
then we're online, and now we're
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moving on chain. And so this is
really the next generation of the internet, and we're going to
be rebuilding transactions as
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well as a lot of just social
applications on these new rails. So I do think that we are going
to see crypto blockchains
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transform the way we transact.
It's going to bring value and data closer together into
transactions, and that will then
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underpin all of the financial
transactions. My belief is that we are going to see this happen
behind the scenes in many ways,
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and so I think we'll get to a
place where everyone is transacting on crypto rails, and
they don't even know that
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they're doing it. One of the
things that is different about crypto today is we talk about,
"Oh yes, I bridge my asset and
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I'm sending it on chain, and
it's alphanumeric characters." That is for the early crypto
adopters. This is for the
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advanced users. This is too
complex for mass market adoption. But we're seeing a lot
of progress now with, for
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example, Coinbase released Basenames.
Now I can send you crypto on chain just with a simple
name, very like an email
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address. This is where we need
to go with crypto to make it ubiquitous and easy to use for
everybody to be using it. But
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yes, I think payments will
happen on chain, and when you think about it, this rail— like,
you think about credit cards.
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They're expensive. For the
merchant, not for the individual consumer, but for the merchant.
So they are expensive. You think
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about ACH. It is slow. Cheaper,
but slower. It takes two to three days. And then you think
about things like Alipay, which
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are fast and cheap, but they're
not global. They're very much a closed loop system. Crypto
offers you fast, cheap, global
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and that is what is unique about
crypto, which is what's going to
drive a lot of adoption.
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- Michelle, where do you
see the main uses? Yeah, so one thing I love about
Coinbase is how it's been such a
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proponent for consumers. How to
use crypto in their everyday lives, how to make their lives a
lot easier and faster. I think
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the— just one point to add to the
consumer side is recently, Stripe acquired a stablecoin
company for more than a billion
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dollars. This is kind of a
reverse acquisition, because this company was trying to be
the Stripe of crypto. So I think
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you have this very wonderful,
like, from within these companies we're trying to rebuild rails
that have existed pretty well,
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but now are— time for— for a
revamp. The other thing I wanted to contribute is, beyond the
consumer space— you know, a lot
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of people who go to Wharton end up in
the fund management industry and Coinbase has been supporting
many of these large issuers in
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making things like— and correct
me if I'm wrong, Alesia— on the Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETF side,
that's obvious. The part that I
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really like that Coinbase is
helping is with what you call risk-weighted— sorry, real world
assets. Going back to my RW from
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BIS ratios. So, real world
assets. And these are where you can invest your tokens, such that
the underlying issue— or invest
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in money market funds. It's kind
of a reverse crossover, which— which I like. I think also for
the more kind of banking,
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mergers and acquisition
industry, where I'm really excited about is applying crypto
and crypto-adjacent technologies
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to improve the dealmaking
process. So for example, in an M&A deal, there are a lot of
trust assumptions between each
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party. And so far, we've
intermediated that by paying escrow agents, or assuming that
the repeat game set up ensures
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that people will be acting
fairly. But there are very cutting edge, frontier math-
based technologies that can
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obviate some of those trust
assumptions, and I'm super, super excited about that. Also,
one more thing is Singapore just
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announced in the last few days a
framework for commercializing tokenization for funds and fixed
income. So they've involved 40
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organizations over seven
countries— and seven countries in some of these experiments since,
I think, like, a couple years
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ago, or even more than that. So
I'm super excited for how the industry that most Wharton
people graduate into will be
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influenced and upgraded through
crypto and crypto-related technologies. So you both mentioned stablecoins.
And from what I hear
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around this is indeed an area
where people have a lot of hope for— you know, one of the things
about cryptocurrencies, and I
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think the reason that some
people are skeptical about them, is just the huge volatility. You
look at the prices, it's kind of
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like a roller coaster. And this
is exactly what stablecoins are trying to fix, to make it stable.
But the question, of course, is
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how credible it is. We saw
episodes of runs on stablecoins. So I think we all
understand it really depends on
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the model that you're using. So,
Alesia, what do you think about stablecoins? Is this credible
going forward? Are the benefits
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really that big to justify the
attention it's getting? - I think they are. And people are
definitely using stablecoins.
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I think it's really important to
look at stablecoin transaction volume. It's probably the most
telling trend happening in
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crypto right now. So in 2023,
stablecoin transaction volume was about $10 trillion. 2024
is on pace to double that.
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Year to date, we're near $20
trillion. And I think then you need to look to your second
question around, are they
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actually stable? And the answer
of that is yes, when the reserves are backed one for one.
So for example, USDC, which is a
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stablecoin that we offer in
partnership with Circle— we think it's preferred for
payments because it's regulated,
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it's transparent, and it's up
more than 300% year-to-date in its total market cap. And we're
seeing adoption in a variety of
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use cases. For payments, for
looking at it as a stable payer for trading crypto, but also as
savings assets in many countries
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where consumers don't have
access to US dollar bank accounts, but they want to hold
a US dollar asset. And this is
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providing them a unique way to
get that exposure, to hedge their risk from other currency
inflation in their own country.
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So when the reserves are
transparent and held dollar for dollar, we do believe they are
stable. And we've seen evidence
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of that. And then they provide a
reliable store value, and we are seeing that— them being adopted,
because of what I mentioned
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earlier. That they're faster,
cheaper and more effective, 24/7. There's very few things that you
can access 24/7, and instantly
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self custody on your own.
They're very unique in that way. And Michelle, do you share the
same opinion about stablecoins?
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And maybe taking it a step
further, how do you think stable- coins are going to interact,
potentially, with CBDCs? And do
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you think that CBDCs could
potentially replace them? Hmm. Well, spicy second
question. But on the first part,
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so, Alesia's take, I largely
agree with. However, stable- coins— most stablecoins are USD
based. So to the extent you
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believe the USD is stable, then
stablecoins are largely stable. But I know a lot of people who
believe that longer term, they
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are not. And a lot of people
believe that to the extent the issuers are centralized, you
don't really have something that
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is true to the ethos of crypto
when it was first founded. So there are continuing efforts to
create a different kind of
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stablecoin. Vitalik's favorite
one is RAI. It's been around since, I think, 2021. it's eth-
only collateral. There's no peg,
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and they use interest rates to
manage demand and therefore price. And it's so far actually
been relatively stable. It's
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been— it's been roughly around
$2.8 to $3 in the last few years, which is pretty remarkable,
because it's been a volatile
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last few years. So that's one
edge take. In terms of CBDCs, it's unclear right now, I think
where— what the— what the
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prevailing CBDC take will
be. In general, the countries that I'm aware of that are
making serious efforts to do
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this, these projects, they are
focused on quick settlement. And I do think that that use case is
highly valuable. You can see
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with— for example, BRICS Pay was
announced sometime— sometime recently, where to avoid long
settlement times between certain
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currencies that are not your
mainstream currencies, they've had to create an alternative
path. I think CBDCs is an effort
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to do a similar kind of thing.
There are concerns that I and many players in crypto worry
about, such as surveillance, and
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whether that leads us a step
closer— closer to, you know, outcomes that we may not want.
<i>1984</i> type of scenarios. But I
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think if we have sensible
players in governments around the world, we will be able to
avoid such a scenario, because
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there have already been parties
that have expressed concerns. I'd like to add on, if I could, to
Michelle's comments, because I
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agree with much of what she
said. So on the first, I think we should also say that the goal of
stablecoins is to have the coin
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represent the underlying asset.
And so with regards to, is it a US dollar backed stablecoin, the
goal is the stablecoin
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represents a US dollar. A euro
coin represents the underlying euro. I agree with Michelle that
many in crypto believe that the
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reason Bitcoin came was it's
supposed to be the decentralized currency, where you can then own
an asset that isn't controlled
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by a centralized government. That
is up to the user, to decide what their allocation of their
investment portfolio or their
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day to day use case should be.
But the stablecoin's goal is to just represent the underlying
asset, which could be a basket
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of goods, could be an individual
currency, could be Ethereum, could be other things. I just
wanted to share that
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perspective. And then my view on
CBDCs, which I think is worth adding to this conversation, is—
stablecoins, to me, it's like a
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new technology, much like a
credit card, much like an ATM. It's a new way to hold and
access a dollar. That was left to
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fintechs, as you opened up this
conversation, Itay, to really drive innovation. And so how we
distribute dollars, how we can
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transact with dollars, how we
use assets, has really been left to private industry, and I think
that that will continue in the
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US. Because ultimately, when you
think about at least a US dollar backed stablecoin, there's no
change to monetary authority.
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It's still representing a dollar. Those
dollars are still held in traditional financial
institutions. The mechanism of
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transacting on a blockchain is
really just a technology innovation, much like we've seen
in generations before.
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Yeah. And touching on that,
thinking about the government— because the government obviously
plays an important role in CBDC,
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but it also plays an important
role if you think about the regulation of fintech and the
crypto markets and so on. And
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Alesia, you mentioned MiCA as
one piece of legislation and regulation. And I think we all
know that in the US, things are
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a little slower than that. So do
you have any concerns about that going forward? Do you think that
there needs to be a change?
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I do. I think the US is at risk
of losing its leadership position in technology, in
finance, if it doesn't establish
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clear crypto regulation soon.
And as you noted, we have seen countries like the EU with MiCA,
others in Asia, they're really
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setting the standard. And
they're creating environments that are fostering innovation.
They're driving investments. And
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I do believe it's a matter of
our national security to defend the dollar as the world's reserve on
chain currency, just like it has
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been for the past decades. We
think that clear regulations attract entrepreneurs. They
encourage developers to
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innovate, they build businesses.
And right now, I think that we're ceding that pole position
to other regions to build the
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next wave of financial
innovation. But we have— there is hope. There is a lot of hope,
because what we've now seen over
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the past year has been a
recognition of this by many policy makers and regulators.
And there's clear bipartisan
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support in Congress that's
building momentum. And I think that we have optimistic hope
that going into 2025 we're going
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into the most pro-crypto
Congress that we have seen, and that there's real hope that we
can get legislative clarity here
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in the US to really keep driving
this technology. Just to add a data point, I was
looking at a developer report,
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global crypto developers, and
North America and Europe were obviously leading for all of the
history of crypto. But Asia has
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overtaken. Asia is now the
highest— now has the highest number of crypto doves,
according to <i>Electric Capital</i>
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<i>Report</i>, which is really
shocking. It's— I don't think
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it's that we suddenly birthed a
bunch of crypto developers. It's the outward migration that I
think happened.
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Right. But— but I think one
thing, Michelle, that you mentioned before is the
coordination in regulation
00:21:23
across different countries. Do
you think that continues to be a concern? I think right now, a lot of
countries are actually
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converging. They're converging
on their attitude towards compliance. It might take more
time to shake out, but I think a
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couple years ago, it was really
unclear who would go which way. Where— where things are a little
bit clearer is where most
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governments agree on the
underlying technology. So for example, CBDCs as a technology,
or the rails by which
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transactions can be settled. But
in terms of tokens, stablecoins, that I think still has
some gray area.
00:22:07
Yeah. Alesia, how do you see
that, the international arena? Do you think it's getting better in
terms of just communication and
00:22:15
collaboration and coordination
across different regions? I think that many people have
agreed on standards around
00:22:23
know your customer, money
laundering expectations, sanctions. And that is very
consistent on a global basis, at
00:22:32
least in countries where there's
strong financial services and heavy investment levels. So that
feels very consistent. What
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feels inconsistent right now is
whether countries are adopting what I would refer to as open
loop or closed loop systems. And
00:22:46
how they want to control data
and leave it very siloed within their country, or whether
they're willing to let
00:22:53
boundaries be more fluid and
create global centers of technology excellence and allow
their customers or their
00:22:59
citizens, rather, to transact
with those global companies that are offering services in their
countries. And so for crypto,
00:23:04
this looks like, how do we self—
do we allow self custody? Can people take their wallets
anywhere, or do they have to be
00:23:10
custodied in the country? And we
have to know those assets are sitting within geographic
boundaries. And that is
00:23:15
something from a policy effort
that we are working very carefully on, because we really
believe in the people's ability
00:23:22
to self custody and take their
assets with them wherever they may be. That's such a difficult problem.
Like, how do you control where
00:23:30
bits go? Yes. Yeah, I think this is
definitely one of the challenges with fintech. So taking a step
back and thinking about what
00:23:40
this fintech revolution is all
about, I think the role of culture has been very important.
So is the role of trust. In some
00:23:48
sense, what ignited this fintech
wave was the search for better ways to achieve trust, and
culture has been an important
00:23:59
part of it. Where are we on
this? Is that continuing to be an important aspect, and where
are we going from here?
00:24:08
I think the culture— culture has
been maturing. I am significantly older than most
people at crypto conferences, so
00:24:16
I kind of feel— earlier, kind of
felt that gap. But I think now we've gone past the— largely gone
past the kind of memeing and
00:24:28
kind of the memecoin-only kind
of culture. There— there have been several cycles in the last
year or so where you go to a
00:24:39
conference and people talk about,
we have too much infrastructure now. We need applications. We
need rail users. We don't just
00:24:47
need Twitter followers and
Discord users. We need rail transaction volume. So I really
like the way culture is moving,
00:24:55
and I really have to credit
Vitalik for pushing a culture of being really useful
to a lot of people, and
00:25:05
especially to people who may be
in environments where they really, really need stablecoins,
for example, versus just
00:25:14
using it because it's slightly
easier or fun. I'm very hopeful that this culture will help us
move towards more productive use
00:25:25
cases. And a very interesting
recent development is, in the last 72 hours, there are two—
two of the most famous
00:25:34
Ethereum foundation researchers,
they— they gave up some very lucrative advisory positions for
a— kind of a crypto project,
00:25:44
because they decided that, hey,
we really want to dedicate our lives and our research to
building open, fair,
00:25:51
decentralized protocols. We want
no conflicts of interest. So I think culture, at least in the
space I'm active in, which tends
00:25:59
to be more eth-focused, is quite
positive at this moment. I'm happy with it.
00:26:04
And Alesia, you, of course, you
come from a bigger firm, one of the biggest in the industry. So
you probably see it a little
00:26:13
differently than that. I think of feedback loops in
culture. So I think that culture
00:26:20
shapes how we develop
technology. And then I think new technologies also shape culture.
And I think you can look to the
00:26:25
internet. And I think as you saw
people move online, you saw a massive uptick in blending
cultures across the globe. The
00:26:31
world got smaller. The internet
has its own unique culture. You've seen memes as a great example of
this. And as people become
00:26:39
accustomed to easily sharing
information, sharing ideas, quickly accessing information,
people get more accustomed to
00:26:46
expecting that in all parts of
their lives. What they've also seen, though, as we've gone more
online, is that more and more of
00:26:54
their information is controlled
in centralized systems. And so this is part of the feedback
loop. So now we see they want
00:27:01
money to move at the speed of
the Internet, because that's how they're used to sharing data.
They don't understand why money
00:27:06
cannot move at the same rate as
information. But they've also seen like, ooh, I don't love that
centralized system, that
00:27:13
centralized power. And so that
is the feedback loop that I think has then brought forth
crypto. And you can see this
00:27:19
with younger generations who are
more comfortable digitally native. They drive demand for
innovative financial products,
00:27:25
and it reflects their values,
like self custody, like decentralization, like
independence. And I think you
00:27:31
can see that that is giving rise
to the adoption of crypto. And many people who then are sitting
in companies are now watching
00:27:39
this cultural shift, and they're
using that cultural shift to drive their next roadmap. And
that is what I think, leading
00:27:45
also to this wave of adoption of
crypto within fintechs. Great. So we're coming close to
the end of our time here. So let
00:27:55
me just ask each one of you kind
of a concluding question, maybe reflection on what has happened
and what we should expect going
00:28:06
forward. So if you were to
predict whether we are going to live in a very different
financial system a few years
00:28:14
from now, what would you say? Is
it going to look very different from what it is today? And if
so, what is the timeline that
00:28:20
you think we should keep in mind
for that? Alesia. I think we're on the precipice
of moving transactions on chain.
00:28:28
I think that we are moving
towards a world where many people won't see it, because it
will be hidden behind the
00:28:34
technology stacks of companies
in which you already transact. But we're going to move to a
world where we've adopted crypto
00:28:40
technology, where we are moving
towards Bitcoin being an important investment asset in
people's portfolio, where we're
00:28:46
going to see the rise of stable
coins used in cross-border payments. And I do think that
we're also going to see the rise
00:28:53
of the new social media apps on
crypto rails that will enable creator communities to to get
compensated from their
00:29:01
creativity and move away from
these decentral— decentralized intermediaries. So yes, I'm very
optimistic, and I think that we
00:29:07
are just getting there. Because
we now have faster, cheaper technology. We are making it
easier to use, and all of those
00:29:13
key building blocks are getting
to be in place. And what is the timeline? Oh, my goodness, Itay, I'm
not a crystal ball.
00:29:20
But I definitely see
over the next five to ten years that this is
going to be a transformation in
00:29:25
how we transact on on chain. - Okay. Michelle. Yeah. So I think the— one of the
gifts of crypto that— is that it's
00:29:34
shaking up the incumbents. It's
forcing them to change, to update, to get with consumer
preferences. But one quote I
00:29:44
always refer to from Jeff Bezos
is focus not on what changes, but what doesn't change. And I
think what will never change, is
00:29:53
people want as much freedom as
they can have. Financial freedom. They want flexibility
in their lives. They want to
00:30:00
express themselves. So to the
extent crypto allows them to do that, I think in all the good
ways, things will change.
00:30:09
- And you also don't want to
pick the timeline. - Timeline. I think we are in the time of
change. I think there's no
00:30:16
turning back. It's— crypto is a
religion, and there is a lot of and there is a lot
of people praying.
00:30:25
I see. That's a very good note to
end on. Okay, thank you very much, Alesia, Michelle, for a
great conversation on the future
00:30:34
of fintech. Certainly a lot to
watch for and wait to see what happens. Thank you very much.
00:30:42
- Thank you.
- Thank you, Itay.