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How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series

November 10, 2023 / 27:59

This episode of the AI at Wharton podcast features Ethan Mik, an expert in AI, education, and workforce dynamics. Key topics include the impact of AI on education, prompt engineering, and AI's role in the workforce.

Ethan discusses how AI is disrupting traditional homework assignments, emphasizing that well-prompted AI can solve most tasks. He explains the differences between various AI models, including OpenAI's GPT-4 and Google's Bard, and their implications for education.

The conversation also covers the democratization of education through AI, particularly through Wharton Interactive's use of AI in simulations and teaching. Ethan highlights the importance of prompt engineering and how educators can adapt to AI's capabilities.

Additionally, Ethan shares insights from his research on AI's impact on workforce productivity, detailing an experiment with BCG that showed significant performance improvements when using AI tools.

Finally, the episode touches on the future of AI, including potential regulatory measures and the ongoing evolution of AI capabilities.

TLDR

Ethan Mik discusses AI's impact on education and workforce productivity, emphasizing prompt engineering and the need for adaptation in teaching methods.

Episode

27:59
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welcome welcome to this edition of the AI at Wharton and analytics at Wharton podcast series on artificial
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intelligence today's episode will actually have a dual role while it says Ai and education here our guest actually
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has lots of expertise in Ai and education and the workforce and a lot more General topics as well I'm joined
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by my faculty colleague uh Ethan mik Ethan is the Ralph J Roberts distinguished faculty scholar he's an
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associate professor in our Management Department he's also the academic director of Wharton interactive so Ethan
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Welcome to our podcast series I'm thrilled to be here thank you well I don't even know where to start because
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I'll just say and I this is my first question to you most of what I've learned on AI and education will start
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there is by watching the five-part series that you and your wife created um so could you tell our listeners here on
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our Ai and education and Workforce uh episode what was in those five episodes like what do all of us as professors
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need to know about Ai and education well I mean there's at least three different
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things that matter right the first thing that matters is disruption uh homework is over right there's not a homework
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assignment basically anywhere that a well- prompted AI can solve at this point so that's a big deal and just to
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be clear let me take them one at a time there are explain to our listeners there
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are multiple versions of even let's even say chat GPT which is just one of the
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open AI sources like some versions can ingest documents some versions cannot some have just a text prompt so which
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version or versions are you referring to when you say kind of home homework as we
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know it is over okay so when you think about AI you want to think about um sort of all the what's called Foundation
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models which are llama and Chachi all these kind of different models but you also want to think about what are called
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Frontier models not to create more confusing vocabulary but there's really only three Frontier models right now
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which are open AI chat gp4 uh which is the paid version but you can also get it for free through Microsoft Bing in
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creative mode which turns out to be really important for education for reasons we'll talk about which is the
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way I do right now and it's a little Limited in some ways it's weird it's has
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a personality we can talk about that then there is um Google's Bard which right now is powered by a underpowered
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model called pal 2 but all the rumors are that it will be upgraded to a model that probably will be the first model to
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beat gp4 in the next couple of months and then finally there's a company called anthropic that has a product
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called Claude 2 so when we talk when I talk about AI can do something I'm almost always talking about the frontier
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models so gp4 um currently has like a separate mode for vision and pictures that's all
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being united there's already been they're already rolling that out so they'll be able to take in documents
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take in images read PDFs it already can it just does it a little bit uh jenily right now well let me ask you a few
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things um well all of this right now there are paid and unpaid versions what's your vision since you also teach
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Innovation you teach entrepreneurship are all these things going to stay free if they are what's
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their revenue model is it adverti like how do you see this playing out from just a from our point of view and from
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the company point of view so right now open aai is has announced that they're
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on a run rate of $1.2 billion in revenue for after less than a year after releasing chat GPT most of that money
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probably comes through their use of their API which is their their um businessto Business Solution right uh
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less of it is the $20 a month we pay right if you pay for gbd plus which by the way if you can you should um there's
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is almost the difference between gbd4 and gbt 3.5 the paid version and the free version is so large as it may not
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appear that way at first but it's big enough that it is 100% worth it um Microsoft releases a bunch of gp4
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products through Bing and they're planning on doing it free as far as I know for the near future Google bard is
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also releasing theirs for free both because it's part of the search engine fight going on so we are the benefits
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but it also means that people in 169 countries around the world have access to gp4 and will probably have barred
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access as well which means the same model that you get access to if you go to Goldman Sachs or you go to you know
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McKenzie or you go to Nike it's no better than the model that every kid in ug Gand and Sri Lanka has access to
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which I think is really exciting and interesting also really a big deal for Education well you've brought me five
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questions but let me go one at a time so I'm getting excited here um obviously
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you spent time thinking about Wharton interactive so this idea of democratizing Education through
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something like this has to be really thrilling and exciting to you as an educator and a scholar because I know
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that was part of your mission and still is with Wharton interactive yeah so for those who don't know Wharton interactive
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is our attempt to build games and simulations to teach entrepreneurship at scale and Wharton's been incredibly
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supportive we have you've been incredibly supportive we had we've have built these very large games we have a
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team of people we have writers and coders and you know interactive fiction experts and you know once gbd4 came out
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we just tried the little experiment we tried saying like what if we just write a paragraph create a simulation of a
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negotiation give me grading on it make it realistic and 80% of the way there with a paragraph like gbd4 just runs a
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simulation so we have pivoted now all of our simulations are basically AIS powering every we have ai watching ing
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Ai and AIS that are instructors and AIS that are mentors all interacting with each other that are actually doing
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teaching right so so is it writing the code doesn't it doesn't even need to
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write the code like it is writing the code but that turns out to be secondary it's writing the code it's creating the
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images it's doing all that stuff but what it really is is also the brain's
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the operation if we do good prompting we can tell it here's your goal make sure
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that you're keeping students engaged change Tone If you need to here's your
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overall and it just does it all I'm just in shock because wow so let me ask you a
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question how does one become I know this is part of your video series how does one be I don't know if called an expert
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but how does one become sophisticated is a good word in prompt engineering like could I do this be do I need subject
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matter expertise to create specific enough prompts or is it just by as you and your wife talked about in the video
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series you'll just learn by doing yeah so it's a really good question and sort
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of all of the above so a few things one is for those who don't know prompt engineering right is the idea of writing
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really good prompts to AI it is going to go away uh there's not a I talk to open
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AI regularly talk to Microsoft talk to Google nobody who's insiders thinks this
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going to last because the AI is really good at intent if you say I want to write a novel fairly soon it'll just be
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able to say like okay here's let's go through the steps together it already
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kind of does that right so it's you can get 80% of the way there by just interacting with the AI now there is an
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exception if you want to encode your expertise as a subject maner expert you want this to do a really good you know
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marketing analysis it will do a perfectly fine job but if you en code your expertise into it by saying here's
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the angle you should take here's the approach do a little bit of prompt engineering you could give that prompt
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to anyone and they'll get the benefits almost of your experience or wisdom so
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there is some value in doing that uh it's pretty straightforward most of it's
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using it 10 hours of the frontier model is my minimum rule of thumb but then beyond that piece there's a couple
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simple tricks so one is you tell the AI who it is you give it context so the more context the better you are an
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expert marketer and weirdly by the way there is a research now suggesting that when you tell the AI is an expert under
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some circumstances it works better um again it's there's a lot of strange
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stuff about prompting the second thing you want to do is provide a lot it's called fuse shot you want to provide a
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lot of examples so when you're sending that you want to say here's some examples of the kind of report that
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you'll produce and the third thing you want to do is have it do step-by-step
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thinking so you want to say first do this then do that then do this because it kind of only knows what it writes so
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you want to write stuff out and then go back to it and then build a plan from there those three things will make you a
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better prompt engineer but it's not going to be that important in the long term all right so let's go back to the
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focus of AI and education so let's talk about the roles that we have as Educators you already said the
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traditional way of doing homework let's start with homework is in Jeopardy so
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given that what can we do or in my view I've already I'm teaching next semester
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I'm like use chat GPT as a matter of fact if you know how to do this to solve
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the problems I'm asking you to do that's a skill set or should I be thinking
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about this differently then I want to go to standing in the classroom then I want
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to go to other forms of assessment and things that we do yeah well so the problem is what I feel is everybody's
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rushing to do a chat GPD class right and then the answer is like yes chat can do
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that I mean there are very few things that um at a sort of medium level that chat like at the 80th percentile that
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chat doesn't do reasonably well right now so the question is do we want all of
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our classes to be can you use chat CP to solve this problem I think we still want
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to teach the subjects that are really good at teaching we still think people need to learn these things which means
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we have to adjust right uh you can't use by the way everybody should know do not
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use any kind of um AI detector they do not work they're biased against people
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use English and second language they all whole five you know that that ship is sailed we cannot detect AI okay so just
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to be clear just like when we we have canvas at the University of Pennsylvania there's a turn it in which is so
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whatever version of that for AI you might as well just forget it no it doesn't mean but well this isn't look I
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think you can see where my next question is going let's say Eric bradow and Ethan
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mik are both in a class and they both use chat GPT for to solve some problem and let's say by chance they happen to
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both put in the same prompt will they get the same exact text back and if the answer is no if both of those were
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turned in could canvases turn it in not say it was AI generated but would it say
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hey wait a second there's cheating going on there because their responses are so
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similar so really good question a few things first of all they wouldn't get the same answer because there's
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Randomness built into this a temperature right so there's a r there's a random
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seed initially and then the words are a little bit randomly different which IES over time you're saying large language
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models are prob I'm a statistician are are they're probabilistic models which
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means even if we put in the exact same prompt we're going to get out things because there's a probability of the
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next word or the next phrase and they're autoaggressive so once they head into
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one direction or another they sort of spin off in that direction further very interesting so that's the first thing
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right the second so the the second thing is I have had an assignment even before
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chat GPD came out using gpt3 where I had my students cheat in class so I had them
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write the best essay they could part part of the assignment is you have to prompt it at least five times by the
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time youve prompted AI two or three or four times there's no way that they seem
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similar anymore right if you give it so yes if people just pasted in the question right they're not going to be
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the same answer but they might have some similarities if they do any work like make this more Vivid or here's my
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writing style that's all they need to make it very different turn in will not
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detect those things and by the way I really think it's unethical to use turn
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in right now you should be turning it off right like it is it is it it will falsely has a high f accusation rate and
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also by the way even worse is to ask GPD 4 or chat GPD free the 3.5 free version
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whether cly was created by AI um new studies showed GPD 4 has a 95% rate of just telling you that something's made
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by AI if you paste it in and ask if it's made by Ai and GPD 3.5 has like a 5%
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rate of telling you they just randomly say this is made by AI or not they have no way of telling so what kind of things
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can be you know what when you presented to the Wharton faculty which was one of the best most informative presentations
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I've seen the a long time when you presented to the Wharton faculty I was like okay maybe at the time this was
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true like all right so maybe it's not text data but maybe I'll give exam
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questions that have video or maybe I'll give stuff that has voice because you
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know what chat GPT can't possibly do as well with that am I off base or well let
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me just say I might be correct but it's better than you think no it's it's
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better at voice than humans are right now so whisper which is the free uh G built in the chat GPT app uh probably
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illegally trained not illegally I don't I don't know who's watching but trained
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on uh on YouTube videos probably as far as we can tell has better than human hearing so like accents um you know
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mixes of languages I use it all the time when actually my students pitch to it um
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I have real venture capitalist and then I have the AI playing a VC the VCS think
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that the AI does a better job than they do in giving feedback um so yes it can listen um they and now can see things so
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any visual problem you just upload and it will address a video or anything so video still has a little bit of trouble
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with so that you can just pull off video right now um but give it give it give it
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a few days no I mean a couple months probably well you actually wrote up another topic and we'll we've been
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talking about Ai and education again I'm joined by my friend and colleague Ethan
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mik he's the Ralph J Roberts distinguished faculty scholar a professor in our Management Department
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also the academic director of Wharton interactive and clearly I think it's fair to say one of the leading Scholars
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on artificial intelligence both in education and the workforce um could you talk to us about the work that you've
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done on AI and the workforce cuz I know you're extremely proud of the work you're doing and I just want to see
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because a lot of our you know uh experts have talked about it's can't be AI or
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humans it's got to be Ai and humans I'm just interested in the angle in which
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you've studied AI in the workforce yeah s okay so um one example we have a I
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have a paper with um a whole bunch of great people at Harvard including kareim Lani uh frbo dequa um and people at MIT
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Kate Kate Kellogg a whole bunch of people on this project but what we did was we went to BCG right one of the
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three big Elite Consulting companies um and a lot of our Boston Consulting Group
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a lot of our students want of work there a lot of alumni work there and we did an
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experiment we uh created 20 tasks they were all realistic tasks with BCG they're actual tasks they use uh and we
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gave some eight we used 8% of the global Workforce which is a lot and Al So when
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you say an experiment you mean an actual experiment I mean an actual experiment 8% of their Global Workforce and some of
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them got the help of gbt 4 and some did not and there were a bunch of other conditions the people who were given GPT
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40 use in business house had a 40% Improvement in quality no training no specialization in the mod just the same
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chat GPT all of us have access to 40% increase in quality across 108 regressions how was quality measured
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every way we could so we did okay analytical tasks and marketing task and persuasion T and all of them were graded
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by human phds human NBAs and then we also used gp4 which by the way grades just as well as humans do it just is a
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little nicer on the scores but the relative scores were exactly the same and then they completed tasks 26% faster
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got 12 point Sorry 26% more tasks done 12.5% faster no training nothing training like we only had like 5 minutes
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of training for sub conditions others for none just to put that in context when steam power was put into a factory
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in the early 1800s and improved performance by 18 to 22% we've never seen a 40% Improvement this is not tuned
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this is not train this is the chat interface that you're used to using um so huge huge performance impacts on on
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from just a little experiment all right so usually in academic papers we have some thesis hypothesis and in your case
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you have an experiment in results what did the back end of that paper look like so let's imagine you're now Consulting
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for a company BCG or you're Consulting to our students undergrads mbas like this should be how you think about your
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training what did the back end of the paper like what conclusions did you come to as a result of this well we barely
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there's so much else we could talk about here too that are you know interesting
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caveats on creativity and who who uses what answers but let let's and and also
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how people people work with AI right that's another thing I've been doing a
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lot of work on uh effectively but um I mean the back end of the paper is really the idea that like look this is a big
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enough impact that this should be a red alert everywhere in every organization right you don't see these kind of
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performance improvements a lot of people are taking their time on AI they're
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assisting that they do something like you know integrate their own data with the AI system we didn't have to do that
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here like the AI the p and GPT stands for pre-trained it knows a lot of stuff already it's not clear that you should
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be waiting to build a large data integration use r and all these other techniques when you should just probably
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be using this and it should be a red alert to figure out how to use this because you know as much as we say oh
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it's people using AI but also I mean another side of this paper was there's
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appendix C to the paper that I don't always talk about because it's I don't
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quite know what to do with it but it measures uh what's called retainment how
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much of gp4 is answer that you just use as your answer and there's almost a direct correlation between how much of
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the answer you use and how successful your results are I mean there's a direct
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correlation it's almost perfect correlation so basically the only way to mess up was to changed chat gpt's answer
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H and not only that the performance boost was at the largest for everyone in the bottom half of performance so we
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measured prior and after performance 42% boost and improvement from the bottom half 18% for the top half performance it
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leveled everybody up to like the 8th percentile of BCG Consultants like I don't even know what to do with that
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that's such a big number so given as you said this is more impactful than the
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steam engine what what did BCG now do with this like what's their planned I mean is there any let me just say Do
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they have any doubt that what you found is generalizable like maybe here's an
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argument I'll be a statistician for a moment maybe this wasn't Al you said 8%
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of the workforce maybe this wasn't a massive sample size maybe it works for these 20 tasks but not for these tasks
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or maybe there's some sort of you know maybe it helps in the short run but you
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know what we can also train humans so maybe the effectiveness is going to decrease over time I'm just playing a
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like if I were a reviewer on a paper I'm just playing The Devil's Advocate what
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would be the respon to all of this so a few things there we did manage to create
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one task the AI couldn't do and right so one of the things to know about our
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listeners here how want to hear what that is so well it was hard right it was a task where we had to hide data in
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interviews and some was in spreadsheets and this was before Ada the Advanced Data analysis module came out but we
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managed to find something right um and it took some work and then on that task you what happened was people who used AI
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did worse because they were mistaken because they took in what they was do so there so part of what people are saying
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is like well what's the border of what AI does and doesn't we call that the
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jagged Frontier like for example if you ask gbd4 to write a 25-word paragraph it'll have trouble doing that because it
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doesn't see words it sees tokens but if you ask it to write a sonnet it'll do an
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amazing job of that sonnets are harder for humans than 25 words you have to learn the frontiers of AI going back to
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the point we mentioned earlier if you use it a lot that's how you start to understand it's going to be good at this
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task bad another task so to go back to the overall kind of question right about what do you do with this right is it
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generalizable this is just one piece of result there's another study out MIT
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that got published in science that shows similar size improvements in business writing tasks in a completely different
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sample there's a study um out of GitHub showing the same kind of improvement for
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programmers like the 30 to 70% number just keeps coming up over and over again in different samples and different
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there's a piece on Creative work there's another paper U out of Harvard looking
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at um at you know business implications uh sorry business um proposal writing there's our own colleague Christian turt
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Carl erck and and their colleagues work showing Innovation so this is not like a
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onetime thing you know this is a pretty broad-based set of findings so where do you think the I I like the word Jagged
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Edge yeah where is Jagged Frontier where is the jagged Frontier here I mean do you even I mean you probably know more
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than let's say you're in the one 1000 upper percentile of people in knowledge
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about GPT or AI in general right now where do you think that Jagged Frontier is so it's hard to explain right which
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is part of why this is as much doesn't it always move out that is that's the
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main thing is the frer is moving out like I guarantee in the next month the frontier is going to move out right like
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some for some reasons I know I can't talk about some reasons that are already
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public elsewhere but like this is not stopping there's no indication to me that the jagged Frontier is not going to
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keep moving forward in the next few months right next year or two and I think ultimately the big question is how
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far how fast and when does it stop and I will tell you the people training the AI
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models I don't think have an answer to that question so let's start with a few
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things um how much I I saw I think it was yesterday President Biden sign signed a bill or something an executive
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order on artificial intelligence and some sort of safety security protection could you tell our listeners what is
00:19:37
that about like what is what is the policy trying to do so there there's a few things in the policy right what I I
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I I have not spent a huge amount of time in the executive order but what it does
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that I like about is there's there's sort of two stages of threats from AI
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that people are worried about one is you may have hear if you read the press a lot you may hear about Extinction risk
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right what if we make AGI artificial intelligence smarter than a human and what does it do to us does it save us
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does it kill us what happens if we build a machine God and by the way that's like
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the stated goal of open a AI is to build AGI right that's their plan by the way
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just so I know I I just want to be sure since I'm a big movie guy I don't know
00:20:10
how much you watch movies like wasn't that some part of Terminator like in other words these robots became so smart
00:20:17
that in some sense they ended up launching Wars and I mean the schwarzeneger movie ter that is it's not
00:20:23
unrelated right no that that is one example of AGI right um the people who are in favor of AGI think that this will
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save us all and you know and redeem humanity and give us all eternal life the people who uh don't like it think
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it'll murder us all so I think it's worth worrying about like it's something
00:20:38
that enough serious people in computer science are worried about that we should I'm glad that we're addressing that but
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I think the bigger policy implications in the near term for me as somebody at the Wharton School is look we've got
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something that's doing high-end creative work high-end managerial work it's going
00:20:52
to get better at this like we're improvising a chat interface and using that to do Consulting work like that's
00:20:57
pretty crazy so that means there's going to be widespread implications for work
00:21:00
widespread implications for Education as we've were talking about and also one of
00:21:04
the things that really is important like the part of the reason we catch criminals and like Bad actors so easily
00:21:09
especially when they're not connected to like a state intelligence agency is most
00:21:11
of them aren't that great right now what happens if the AI makes brings everybody
00:21:15
up to 80th percentile in biological engineering 80th percentile in building chemical weapons that's also a concern
00:21:22
and then there's privacy concerns deep fakes are perfect from this thing right
00:21:24
like so can you define what a deep fake is like what does that term mean sure I mean AI um content is basically
00:21:31
undetectable I have made videos of my fake me talking I I my presentations I always have one real picture everything
00:21:36
else I generate on my own no one could tell what the real picture is right so you cannot tell if I can create an actor
00:21:42
with their voice I can do this right now for $150 with software that anyone can use it's not even like dark web software
00:21:47
it's a company that's VC backed uh and I can use 11 labs in did and create a fake
00:21:52
video of you talking right now and you know it'd be pretty realistic so we have
00:21:56
this issue with this kind of deep fake email it's also perfect fishing engine
00:22:01
like you shouldn't trust anything you see online anymore and that's not a joke
00:22:03
like there literally is no way to know like I've already talked to Banks who've
00:22:06
gotten calls uh in from the voice of people who weren't actually calling them
00:22:09
demanding money from ransoms like stuff is going crazy already that is ship is already staled so part of the Biden
00:22:15
agenda is like how do we Watermark these things not going to be possible like it's just that's that's not going to
00:22:20
happen really because even though these Frontier models are based in the US there's a whole bunch of Open Source
00:22:24
models worldwide models that are not going to have this kind of protection so the the the attempt of this executive
00:22:30
order for the way I see it is both to do worrying about this sort of future Ai and training it but also trying to think
00:22:35
about how do we restore privacy how do we restore you know and I don't know how
00:22:39
much of that's possible but the regulation is probably needed so a lot of our listeners are probably sitting
00:22:44
here saying I need to get started like I I I haven't even started but now clearly
00:22:49
if I'm listening to Professor mik I've got to start now where do you suggest
00:22:53
that someone starts like you mentioned 10 hours let's say that's good what what
00:22:58
should they spend their 10 hours doing like where should they go you know we're
00:23:02
at Wharton so we're fortunate we have the video series you sent around but I
00:23:06
mean whether it's you have materials others have materials can you go I'm
00:23:09
making it up can you go to KH Academy I I don't know where did where does someone go to get started so a few
00:23:14
things those videos are on YouTube anyone can see them if you search the name of ethol you'll find it I also have
00:23:19
a substack with a whole bunch of getting started guides called one useful thing all which I just which I just started
00:23:24
following today excellent hopefully you'll enjoy that but I mean I think the
00:23:27
B BS of this are my my principles of AI my first principle of using AI is just invited to everything you morally and
00:23:33
legally can use it for everything use it for your job like literally you want to
00:23:36
send an email see how good the AI is writing the email you have to do ideation you know have it do ideation
00:23:41
you going into a meeting bring it to the meeting have it record the meeting and give you advice and feedback on what you
00:23:45
should do better next time just use it for everything that's the only way to
00:23:48
figure out what the jagged Frontier is in your field there nobody knows anything right now right like as I said
00:23:53
I talk to all of the major AI companies on a regular basis and like no one has an instruction manual for this thing no
00:23:58
one knows whether it's going to be good or bad in your subfield whoever you're
00:24:01
listening at right now so you can be the world expert by just using it and seeing
00:24:05
what that is so just try it for your work and then there's a bunch of techniques you'll start to learn but the
00:24:09
first thing is to try it it's really important though to use a Frontier Model
00:24:12
to use the most advanced model available to you right now now you mentioned something else about you think that I
00:24:17
think let me see if I got this right that I think it was Google you I think you use the term like they're coming out
00:24:23
with something new that might be better than chat GPT what would better mean in like when you use the word better I was
00:24:31
just intrigued by that what does it mean to be better than one you know uh large
00:24:36
language model Etc being better than another okay so there's a lot of interesting angles to that right now all
00:24:41
the major front the two major Frontier models which are open ai's model which
00:24:45
sort of Microsoft Powers it as well and Google's model both are have added a
00:24:50
whole bunch of capabilities that if you're not paying attention you may have
00:24:52
missed so they're all fully multimodal you can ask them to create pictures they
00:24:56
they also can see the world right so like not doing an image search but like you literally could show a picture and
00:25:00
say how does this dress fit and it will give you reasonable feedback on that or how do you know what how do I undo this
00:25:05
lock or what's this passcode whatever you want to do um so they're all multimodal they all are going to be
00:25:10
doing voice back and forth they all connect to other do can read documents connect to other materials so that's
00:25:15
kind of the basics all of that is connected to the large language model itself which you can kind of think of as
00:25:19
the brain and so large language models basically get smarter over time so if we think about uh GPT 3.5 the free version
00:25:25
you're using maybe High School sophomore I would say GPD 4 at its best moments is
00:25:30
is a first year grad student so part of the question yeah so part of the question is what is two or four times
00:25:35
better than that look like we don't know yet so we could just do raw test scores
00:25:38
right we go from scoring at the you know at the 5ifth perc of the bar exam beating 5% of humans for free chat GPD
00:25:45
to beating 95% of humans for GPD 4 what happens with the next one we we don't
00:25:50
really know but so smarts are sort of the smarts of the brains behind the whole thing so this is the question I've
00:25:55
asked everyone in this series uh to kind of end the episode if we're sitting here
00:26:00
10 years from now and we'll make a date I'm going to interview this I hope
00:26:03
interview the same group of people 10 years from now what are we talking about do you think that has happened over the
00:26:09
previous 10 years I can only think it's scenarios at this point right I mean
00:26:13
because the the only question that kind of matters for this is how fast will these models improve and when will they
00:26:20
hit their limits right and nobody knows the answer to those questions right so it's not going to be static if you think
00:26:25
you have time to wait you don't because these model are advancing very rapidly
00:26:29
the question is do they stop at the 95th percentile of the best humans in one area like so everybody's got something
00:26:34
they're really good at that they definitely beat the AI in 99th percentile better than human we don't
00:26:39
know right and so to me that's the only relevant question right and so nobody
00:26:44
has the answer to that so we have to prepare for a scenario where okay we're
00:26:48
getting close to the top I don't I haven't seen evidence of this but it's
00:26:50
entirely possible that it starts to slow down then we still have at least 10 or 15 years of absorbing what gbd4 can do
00:26:56
because it's barely connected to anything anything in the world right we've got 10 years of disruption ahead
00:27:00
of us that's going to roll ahead anyway if they keep getting better then we start to think seriously about if not
00:27:05
AGI what does it mean that it beats every human at you know writing marketing copy like what do we do with
00:27:10
that right do we you know and so there's a lot of open questions so I don't have
00:27:14
the easy answers but I think that there is I think we're you're more likely to
00:27:17
see a transformed World in 10 years than in five even if the technology stops because it takes a while for systems to
00:27:22
absorb change right the the the futurist rule is that everyone overestimates short-term change it underestimates
00:27:28
long-term change I think 10 years we're going to see a transformed World in a
00:27:31
lot of ways that are some are good some are bad well I'd like to thank uh Professor Ethan mik for joining me today
00:27:37
on the podcast series on AI in education and the workforce uh Ethan's an associate professor of management he's
00:27:42
also an academic director of whorton interactive and as he said you can go to your favorite engine and type in Ethan
00:27:47
mik and you can see about his substack and about his videos on YouTube Ethan thank you for joining me thank you for
00:27:52
having me

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Episode Highlights

  • AI Disruption in Education
    AI is transforming traditional homework, making it nearly obsolete.
    “Homework is over!”
    @ 01m 03s
    November 10, 2023
  • Democratizing Education with AI
    Ethan discusses how AI can make education more accessible globally.
    “AI can democratize education!”
    @ 04m 16s
    November 10, 2023
  • AI's Impact on Workforce Productivity
    A study shows a 40% improvement in task quality with AI assistance.
    “40% improvement in quality!”
    @ 13m 31s
    November 10, 2023
  • AI's Impact on Performance
    A 42% performance boost was observed in the bottom half of participants.
    “The performance boost was at the largest for everyone in the bottom half.”
    @ 16m 02s
    November 10, 2023
  • The Jagged Frontier of AI
    The discussion revolves around the evolving capabilities of AI and its implications.
    “Where is the jagged Frontier?”
    @ 18m 35s
    November 10, 2023
  • Biden's Executive Order on AI
    President Biden signed an executive order addressing AI safety and security concerns.
    “What is the policy trying to do?”
    @ 19m 37s
    November 10, 2023
  • The Rise of Deep Fakes
    Deep fakes are becoming increasingly realistic, posing serious privacy concerns.
    “You shouldn't trust anything you see online anymore.”
    @ 22m 01s
    November 10, 2023
  • Future of AI and Work
    The conversation highlights the potential transformations in work due to AI advancements.
    “We're going to see a transformed World in a lot of ways.”
    @ 27m 30s
    November 10, 2023

Episode Quotes

  • Homework is over!
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series
  • AI can democratize education!
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series
  • It's better at voice than humans!
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series
  • This is more impactful than the steam engine.
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series
  • You shouldn't trust anything you see online anymore.
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series
  • We have 10 years of disruption ahead of us.
    How Does AI Impact Education? – Wharton Professor Ethan Mollick | AI in Focus Series

Key Moments

  • AI Disruption01:03
  • Democratizing Education04:16
  • AI in Workforce12:46
  • Performance Boost13:31
  • Red Alert for Organizations15:09
  • Jagged Frontier18:35
  • Executive Order19:37
  • Future of Work27:30

Tension Over Time

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown