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If I told you uh sincerely that Hillary Clinton ran a child pornography web out of a pizza parlor in Virginia
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and had dozens of kids chained to the wall, you would either find it amusing cuz you know it's false or you would
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find it terrifying because you know there are people who would believe it. Welcome to the Ripple Effect, the
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podcast that takes you on a journey through the minds of Wharton faculty. I'm your host, Dan Looney, and in each
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episode, we'll be diving deep into the inspiration [music] behind the groundbreaking research that
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Wharton professors have conducted and exploring how their findings resonate with the world today. Well, there is
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really no doubt that we have seen social media platforms [music] have to deal with growing levels of disinformation in
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recent years and on a wide range of topics. The reasons why this is occurring can obviously be political,
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can be profit centered and there are so many other reasons. But how can these issues of diff disinformation be dealt
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with? Pleasure to be joined by Eric Clemens who's professor of operations, information, and decisions here at the
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Wharton School and he was part on new research on this topic earlier this year. Eric, always great to chat. How
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are you, sir? >> Uh, I'm okay. I'm missing a front tooth so I hope I don't look too goofy for
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your audience. >> You're good. You're good, Eric. >> I'll try to avoid smiling. This is
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obviously such an important topic right now, but let me start with something that is noted right at the top of the
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research and you talk about the component of campaigns and how much the the the concept of a campaign is really
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involved in much of these issues around disinformation. >> Yeah. Uh one of the things that's
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interesting is how effective it is. uh disinformation about climate change is easy. You tell a bunch of coal miners
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that it's a Chinese plot to uh the American coal industry, increase the cost of American production, and
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increase uh Chinese welfare, Chinese well-being. You tell someone who lives in a uh coastal community that uh just
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because somebody missed seven foul shots, uh you don't trade them, >> right?
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>> Uh bad bad stuff happens and a couple of bad hurricanes in a row doesn't mean you
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should sell the house or get rid of your SUV. That's easy to say. The explanation
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for climate change is so complicated. Uh we all know how a microwave works. The radiation in a microwave makes water
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vibrate, which is the definition of heat. Radiation from the earth makes carbon dioxide vibrate, which is the
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definition of heat. Why we don't melt. Uh it's called black body radiation.
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Eventually, you reach a new equilibrium. I gave my class uh an experiment which was I told them a couple of climate
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change lies which were easy to repeat and I told them some climate change truth which is hedged and incredibly
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complicated and none of them could repeat it. I was stuck on an airplane and the poor
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passenger stuck between me and the aisle had just bought a house uh off the Outer
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Banks. And at the end of two hours, he said, "Let me see if I understand. If
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I'm very lucky and every bit of data we have on carbon dioxide is false, and if
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cloud cover cools the Earth, I'm fine. Otherwise, my house is going to be underwater in 10 years." And I said,
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"Yeah, it could be okay." But he said, "I'm selling. Why doesn't every American
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in in why doesn't every American know this?" And I said, "You were stuck for
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two hours with nothing to do but listen to me." >> Right? >> I don't have that opportunity, and I
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don't have the time to talk to 20 million voters. But the lie is easy and effective. The truth is long, slow, and
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complicated. Makes it a very effective way to change opinions. And so when you put it in a campaign form, it becomes
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that much more effective. >> It it it does. Now, a lot of uh the things that are banned in uh
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disinformation campaign are sort of banned in old marketing law. But this is so complicated. It's moved so quickly.
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uh platforms have so many exemptions and the profit motive to be paid to facilitate a campaign is so high that
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it's really been almost impossible to control. >> And so one of the other things you
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mention is that uh social media content this disinformation in many cases is quote unquote highly processed similar
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to many of the foods that we eat. Correct. >> I love the analogy. We are finally
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understanding that highly processed food isn't the same as as a balanced diet and
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highly processed news isn't the same as an informed uh electorate. Uh that's
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it's exactly right and I I should explain a little bit what highly processed means in the context of of
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news. The first part is I know what you're inclined to believe. I know what you know. The amount of information
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available on every social media users is incredible. Recent studies have shown that social media models can predict the
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behavior of a user more accurately than their spouse. I mean it's it's we we
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know enough and if we share that information with a highly motivated liar, let's call it leave us out of it
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and call it a North Korean troll factory, they can write stories that will appeal very closely to individual
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segments of the market without actually needing to violate any individual's privacy.
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So I now know enough to have highly processed lying, very effective targeted lying. If I send that to everybody, if I
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told you u sincerely that Hillary Clinton ran a child pornography web out of a pizza parlor in Virginia
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and had dozens of kids chained to the wall, >> you would either find it amusing because
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you know it's false or you would find it terrifying because you know there are
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people who would believe it. Highly processed news also goes to the people who want to believe it.
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>> So then how different then is news that people see on a social media platform
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from what we see on a network newscast or if we read it in a newspaper >> changing a little bit since the Bush
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administration basically got rid of the FCC's fairness requirement. But but still if the New York Times runs
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a story, it has to be plausible to all of its readers. If readers find it preposterous,
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it loses its credibility, which destroys its value as a brand. Uh with the in the
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case of social media, uh the social media's brand is entertainment. And as long as I show stuff that people
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find entertaining, I'm protecting and enhancing the brand. I'm not weakening it. So there's no
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penalty uh to Facebook or no penalty to Twitter for highly focused, highly targeted
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lying, whereas this would destroy the brand of the New York Times or for that matter NPR.
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So most broadcast uh channels attempt to have at least some element of universal plausibility.
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Even Fox News, which is about as biased as a network can be, even Fox News on their news programs, news segments,
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attempts a certain amount of uh reliability. Their editorials are a different story. When I wanted to get
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unprocessed news about the Middle East, I actually got it from Al Jazer because Al Al Jazer is so vulnerable to claims
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of being false that their news is is as reliable as the uh as the Financial Times. Their editorials are a different
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story. I don't spend a lot of time with uh Alazer editorials, but their news has
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to be accurate or they they have no credit. they they lose whatever credibility they have.
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>> You make a distinction in the in the paper that you wrote about this topic
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between misinformation and disinformation. Please take a moment to explain the difference.
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>> Sure. If I actually believed that um oh that the election was stolen and I
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repeat that or I actually believe that uh vaccines cause autism uh or that um uh Joe Biden was fully competent even
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going into the debate. If I truly believe that and I repeat that, I post that, I repost
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that, that's misinformation. >> Mhm. >> If I tell stuff that I I believe for the
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purpose of sharing my view of truth, again, that's misinformation. But if I know something to be false, I'm
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actually working in a troll factory or I'm working for a political campaign and
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I design really effective arguments to spread falsehood. That's disinformation.
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Misinformation is protected by the first amendment. Disinformation is not. So why then is
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disinformation so hard to control? >> A variety of reasons. One is uh one man's um disinformation is
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another man's uh political campaign. Right. Uh we I've got to assume that
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most people in the Trump White House know that he lost the previous election and yet they went after um companies for
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v voting machine companies for fraud. Uh they're fighting to block um mail-in
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voting, >> right? Be >> because it's effective. So there are there are times you do stuff I've I've
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said this before. This is not a Democrat or a Republican issue. It's a liberal or
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conservative issue. Liberals by definition consider almost everything discussible. I don't mean inifat. I
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don't mean u radical anarchists. By definition, a political liberal in the definition from the late 1700s
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believes everything is discussable. Uh for the truly committed, you're doing
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God's work. >> Right? >> So if you're doing go the guy who said,
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"I will I disagree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." He wasn't part of the
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Inquisition. >> Right. >> Right. I mean, he he wasn't doing God's
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work. Well, and as you bring up, the First Amendment obviously plays a very important role in this process of
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bringing a lot of this information to the forefront to begin with. >> It it does and the first amendment is a
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very good thing. The first amendment is based on the idea that truth wins in the
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free market for ideas, >> right? >> Similarly, trial by jury isn't perfect.
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The idea is both parties do their best. They hire the best attorneys. They they don't lie, but they manipulate
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perception as best they can. And the idea is in the end, the best idea wins. Uh it doesn't work when technology
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allows highly processed news. It doesn't work when I can craft a story specifically for you to believe and then
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make sure you're the only one who sees it. are are traditional news outlets that we have known for decades,
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are they impacted negatively because of what I think is the mindset around bringing information forward, news
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information forward on social media in this day and age. I mean, this is something that is really geared for
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where we are right now. The countries that have the strictest rules on the use of information, uh,
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nations in the EU would be the nations that you would expect to be least affected by highly processed news. And
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four or five years ago, I met with the head of strategy for a traditional Danish broadcaster
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and she showed that her market share in almost all areas had been reduced by about 75%.
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And she said her stories have to be true. They have to be the same for everyone. As soon as she starts varying
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what you see based on what you want to believe, she loses her license to broadcast.
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And she pointed out that social media is is much more entertaining. There's been
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some research that shows that when we watch TV, we want to be entertained, >> right? And we view social media as
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entertainment. Uh there's a work by um uh two famous Nobel laurate behavioral
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uh economists conne uh conneeded out that we have type one and type two thinking right
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>> fast and slow fast is something's wrong I have to get out of here slow is
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complex and analytical he said we we watch the the fake news researcher said we watch fake news with fast thinking.
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Is it entertaining? We don't say is it correct? It's one of the reasons why
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labeling demonstrably false news as false and originating in Russia, China, or North Korea has very little impact on
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people's reposting it because it's fun. >> Yeah. >> So fun fun Trump's real media. I don't
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want to use the word Trump in that context. fun beats traditional media on on reposting. It beats traditional media
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on market share. It's just compelling. It wins. But then is there I think a lot
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of people would also say that um you have to look at the importance of what social media has become and that it's in
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our culture and knowing that it's going to be around our culture. But how do you
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deal with the level of disinformation that we have there but still allow social media platforms to be fun for
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people who would like them to be fun? you know, to kind of take the the negative and the angst out of social
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media. >> I have an example of a social media website that is so trivial that it was
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able to police itself until it was bought by Anheiser Bush. And it was a craft beer rating site.
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>> Okay. >> And I could say, "Who's got the profile most like mine?" And it turned out to be
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a guy named Ratman. Uh, and I would say, "What did Ratman think of this beer?" And he would say,
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"Even for me, too bitter." Well, all right. I would, if he didn't like it,
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it's certainly too much of an IPA for me. [snorts] There was one beer introduced by a brewery
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and they obviously told their employees to love it and suddenly there were thousands of positive reviews for a
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beer, all coming from the same location, the location of the brewery. >> Right. I I had it pulled because we
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could we could police it. It really didn't it didn't matter. Um how do you
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police social media? Well, the first thing you do uh is you prohibit the social media from sharing aggregate
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statistics. This is one of the reasons why Tik Tok's claim to be safe is patently false. Tik Tok doesn't have to
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move any data on any individual out of the US. It simply needs to categorize individuals into buckets of what they
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believe. And that data doesn't have to leave the states. Uh China can craft stories and
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send them to Tik Tok. Tik Tok can post them and direct them to the people who want to read them. And none of this
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violates privacy law. >> Right? So if you want to um limit the effectiveness of highly processed fake
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news, you take away the processing factory. You don't let Facebook share data, even aggregate data on people's
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beliefs. You don't let Facebook uh post stories to individuals who are responsive to them.
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That's hard to do because aggregate data doesn't violate privacy law, right? And
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Facebook has successfully argued in front of the EU that sending you a story that you love is part of their
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commitment to be a good entertainment company. So it's it's not easy to do
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this, but if you take away the raw material, you shut down the processing factory, then social media becomes just
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a just a blackboard. So then realistically, as we're moving forward, you know, further down the road
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here, the concept of disinformation is something that we will probably see stay around for the foreseeable future.
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If you remember 1984, which was >> the book or the year? >> The book.
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>> Okay. >> If I said there's this old joke, do you remember 1968? And the answer is if you
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were there, you don't remember it. >> Right. Right. Right. >> But but uh the book was originally
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titled 1948 and the expectation was technology would enable this degree of societal manipulation very quickly.
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>> Right? >> It didn't. But it we're we're we're getting there. So, social media will be
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around forever. Lying has been a tool of statecraft and a tool of Warcraft uh forever. Absolutely forever. The
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difference is between traditional oneoff lying which is highly effective only when a society is falling apart
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and highly targeted lying which works most of the time. >> Right? >> So we've we've got a society where there
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is a strong motivation to win. There are people who truly believe they're doing
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God's work >> and they have the tools to manipulate. What we have to do if if we want to
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limit it without limiting free speech is deprive the the tools of the data needed
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to process, create, and direct the news. >> Eric, great conversation. Thanks very
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much for your time and obviously continued success with your work. All the best. Thanks so much,
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>> Eric Clemens, professor of operations, information, [music] and decisions here
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at the Wharton School. Thank you for listening to The Ripple Effect. We hope you found this episode informative and
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engaging. Don't forget to subscribe and [music] leave us a review so that we can
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continue to bring you the best insight from the Wharton School.