00:00:08
well in my work on security a big part
00:00:12
of the question is whose security might
00:00:16
be in danger in the coming years so
00:00:19
secure this field of security studies
00:00:21
inherently is about forecasting making
00:00:24
predictions about how actors might be
00:00:26
vulnerable what strategies might help
00:00:28
them and so forth so I got interested in
00:00:31
the good judgment project because I
00:00:32
wanted to build these skills
00:00:37
well I think there were a couple of
00:00:39
factors one was that I am in the middle
00:00:42
of my career now and I've spent a lot of
00:00:43
time studying exactly the kind of issues
00:00:46
that the good judgment project was
00:00:47
focusing on and so I was familiar with
00:00:51
trade issues I was familiar with
00:00:54
national security issues the rise and
00:00:57
fall of governments that kind of thing
00:00:59
so it really was right in my issue area
00:01:01
also I I use a theory that can be well
00:01:07
applied in this kind of situation it's
00:01:09
called structural realist theory and it
00:01:12
gives a sense of big recurring outcomes
00:01:17
and international relations the rise and
00:01:19
fall of great powers the tendency for
00:01:22
military conflict to occur competition
00:01:26
and trade and so forth and so I had a
00:01:28
kind of broad understanding of
00:01:30
International Affairs that I could apply
00:01:33
to particular situations and the beauty
00:01:35
of this theory was that it was it's
00:01:37
really pretty open states have a lot of
00:01:39
choices about how they act and so I
00:01:44
wasn't falling into the trap of thinking
00:01:46
that something was inevitable but
00:01:48
instead was investigating which things
00:01:51
were more likely which things were less
00:01:52
likely so this theory was really
00:01:55
conducive to probabilistic forecasting
00:01:57
and my background knowledge was really
00:02:00
helpful in having a big set of
00:02:02
information to draw from and also
00:02:05
knowledge about where to find things
00:02:07
where to find information that would be
00:02:09
helpful
00:02:13
well the first thing was to really
00:02:16
explore my biases to realize that I
00:02:20
often would have a first impulse about a
00:02:22
question and I didn't want to just go
00:02:25
with that sometimes it was right but I
00:02:27
didn't want to just go on impulse and
00:02:30
secondly I really learned to think about
00:02:35
what my strengths were to focus on
00:02:37
questions that I thought were in my area
00:02:39
of strength and in particular to focus
00:02:42
on questions that I thought were were
00:02:45
being answered wrong or you know where
00:02:47
the the general consensus was different
00:02:50
from what I thought it was because there
00:02:53
I could make the most difference in
00:02:55
shifting opinion or contributing
00:02:57
knowledge that might sway the crowd and
00:02:59
make the group as a whole more accurate
00:03:01
so I think those things are really
00:03:04
important
00:03:08
well every year in the tournament I kept
00:03:11
a running list of what questions I'd
00:03:13
answered when i first answered them how
00:03:16
i first answered them and it was really
00:03:18
helpful to see how my opinion changed
00:03:21
his new information came along so I was
00:03:23
all kind of keeping myself honest about
00:03:25
what was my original opinion and what
00:03:27
was making me change my mind and I think
00:03:30
that was really helpful because I
00:03:32
learned a lot about what kind of pits I
00:03:34
might fall into you know if I get over
00:03:37
optimistic about suddenly there's a lot
00:03:38
of news on a certain issue I might have
00:03:41
a tendency to think that something was
00:03:42
more likely to happen whereas maybe
00:03:44
wasn't really more likely to happen so
00:03:47
keeping track of my predictions was very
00:03:50
helpful I thought it was really
00:03:51
important that i was at forecasting
00:03:54
anonymously at first it made it more i
00:03:58
made me more confident about making
00:04:01
predictions without worrying about their
00:04:03
effect on my reputation and after all
00:04:05
you know i was in this to get better
00:04:08
about forecasting so i wanted to have
00:04:10
the ability to take to make bets or you
00:04:14
know answer questions in a way that i
00:04:15
thought was correct without worrying
00:04:17
about how that might be seen somewhere
00:04:19
else and that really built up my
00:04:21
confidence and actually through being
00:04:23
right then frequently to it built up my
00:04:27
confidence to the point that i was
00:04:29
willing to reveal who i was and then got
00:04:31
to experience the whole other dynamic of
00:04:34
people knowing I was an expert wondering
00:04:37
what I thought about things and then
00:04:38
having to be cautious about not relying
00:04:40
too much on my expert knowledge but
00:04:42
still thinking about the wisdom of the
00:04:44
crowd so I think the anonymity is really
00:04:46
important and also realizing that the
00:04:49
magic of this whole study is in
00:04:52
revealing that everybody has important
00:04:55
information and at different times
00:04:57
different people's information will be
00:04:59
really valid and especially important
00:05:02
and finding that right balance between
00:05:04
being confident in your own views and
00:05:06
and being open to the views of others
00:05:12
so in my work this experience has been
00:05:17
extremely important I am now working on
00:05:20
an article about the rise of China that
00:05:23
I would not have written if it had not
00:05:26
been from my experience in the good
00:05:27
judgment project by having to constantly
00:05:30
update my knowledge about China's
00:05:33
economic capabilities and its military
00:05:34
capabilities in order to do well in this
00:05:36
game I kept up at a much finer green
00:05:40
level with things that were happening in
00:05:43
China and that have changed my forecast
00:05:48
about how international relations will
00:05:50
work over the next couple of decades so
00:05:52
I'm an international relations scholar
00:05:53
one of the most important things in the
00:05:55
international relations field right now
00:05:58
is this question of of does the United
00:06:00
States have peer competitors is China
00:06:03
one yet and this experience helped me
00:06:06
see that it is so it's really
00:06:08
dramatically changed my career and the
00:06:10
process of going through the confidence
00:06:14
building process of you know learning
00:06:17
how to articulate forecasts learning how
00:06:20
to be how to express them in
00:06:24
probabilistic terms how to be confident
00:06:26
even if I'm not completely sure has made
00:06:29
me willing to take the risk of going out
00:06:31
on this really controversial subject
00:06:52
you
