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our guests today are Christian tursh a professor of operations and information management at Wharton and Carl rrick the
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vice dean of innovation at Wharton and we're going to talk to them about massive open online courses or muks as
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they're better called and how they will impact Business Schools uh Christian and
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Carl thanks very much for joining us today thanks for having us thanks for having us uh Christian perhaps you could
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start us off by describing the main findings or takeaway from your research now let me let me preface what we're
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going to discuss about business school by saying that Carl and I have been in the business school world for many many
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years we love this institution uh and we really want to make sure that we find a
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sustainable path forward for the business schools but Business Schools in the world of these massive online
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courses are somewhat threatened and a lot of that has to do with our cost structure we are very expensive
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organizations and there there are really two main reasons for that is one we do two things we teach and we do research
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but only the teaching part comes with revenues and so all of the research work that we do all this great research that
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is funded for is funded for by our students and the second thing like honestly like most nonprofits we don't
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always have an eye on efficiency if you and I would run an airline together and we would fly our planes half empty very
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quickly bad things start to happen yet that culture of efficiency of productivity is something that we
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haven't had in the business schools and as these moves are coming along and things that we about to talk about these
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moves are coming along the cost pressure on our institutions are going to change
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because suddenly there's some very serious alternative for coming to a two-year degree to Warden right car
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anything to add to what Christian just said the the other thing I would say is a key finding of our analysis is really
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to look at what the benefits are that MBA students derive from their full-time MBA experience and we point out that
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teaching and learning the more traditional academic topics are probably only a quarter or a fifth of the reason
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that students come and get an MBA program and that's the piece that we think is most susceptible to change from
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this emerging new technology but that probably doesn't impact the other elements of the of the MBA program right
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so one of the things I found interesting in your research paper uh is that you you talk about the fact that in a Muk
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what is relevant to the business school is not the moo per se but the technology
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the video based technology that is embedded in the moo uh and and this kind of struck me because I remember 20 years
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ago uh uh there was a lot of hype around uh the fact that video lectures were available on on videotapes or later that
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they were available on uh CD ROMs and and each time there was a lot of uh you know expectation about what this would
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do to Business Schools but neither of these affected or or of disrupted the business
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school model in any fundamental way do you think a Muk is fundamentally more disruptive and I would like to know from
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each of you if that is the case why that may be so so let's start with the technology as you say we find it's very
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helpful to separate the moo from the technology that enables the moo that technology is a combination of short
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videos smart testing with potentially automated grading uh social networking on communities all these things wrapped
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together as we've seen with courses at edex in particular with corsera uh is
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creating a technology that is applied now to the moo given away for free as we've kind of seen it over the courses
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that we've taught here at warten but that moo and that technology are two separate pieces the moo is just one
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application and we can imagine many other ways in which these new technologies we we call this a superx
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that superx the videos the Adaptive testing so social networking there are many other ways which we can deploy that
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technology and in those other applications we believe is a much bigger threat to institutions like ours
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compared to taking these courses teach them to 100,000 students at once and giving that away for free we we don't
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feel threatened by the moo we do feel threatened by the super text I I'd make
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a few other observations about video video's been around it's been available
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to Consumers for 30 years but there's something fundamentally different about
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the availability today of video and I think that's evident if you look at the
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behavior of consumers online they're watching KH Academy they're watching TED
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Talks they're spending a lot of time on YouTube when I watch my teenagers do
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their math homework they do it with their laptop their smartphone so they can text their friends and then and then
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they watch a YouTube video to explain how to do the math problem so video is is fast and it's available everywhere
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with just a click and the big Insight I think in the first move was that by chunking the video by making it just a
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few minutes long and making it semisynchronous that is available on demand during a week of the course you
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get a much greater adoption and viewing of that video as opposed to for instance
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having to take a a video cassette out of a library check it out of a library take
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it home plug it in scan you know fast forward to the right section that that friction substantially diminished the
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usefulness of video when it was first introduced right now so so I I get the fact that uh because the video is so
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easily and readily available that that the adoption rates are much higher uh but one of the things you mentioned in
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your paper is that of the three Pathways that you describe in your research uh the first one is that uh B schools will
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be able to serve more students better and more efficiently uh as a result of this technology now since each of you
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teaches a course on corsera I wonder if you could draw on your own teaching experience and show how do you teach
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better and more efficiently via the Muk platform than you might do in a classroom I I teach product design at
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pen I've taught it for 20 years and I've recently taught a moo in which maybe
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100,000 students over four offerings of the course have participated in that subject and I have I made 65 videos
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short videos that explain some of the key Concepts in product design I found myself when teaching product design two
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years ago I found myself in class opening up my web browser going to my cors era course and showing my students
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a video because says oh I have this great example let me show it to you and then I realized how silly that was and
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that what I really should be doing is having those students watch the videos without me before they got to class and
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so in the last year when I teach product design I've posed to myself the challenge what can we do in the class
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room that can only be done when 60 people are together sharing the same time and location and I have them watch
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the video offline and then when we get together we do a simulation or an exercise or presentations or group work
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things that can only be done in that location when we're all together so that's the flipped classroom mod that's
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the so-called flipped classroom are you using the same model through well I'm
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Carl his his videos are actually funny and so I I am in a somewhat more constrained environment but but I think
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the question that you're posing is an important one that we think about our brick and mortar classroom offerings
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here I teach the core course in operations management among other things it's 12 time 80 minutes that every
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student at the Wharton School has to take 12 time 80 minutes uh 960 minutes in total my online course on corsera is
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about 40 45 video segments of about 6 to 7 minutes right so you see that there's
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almost a compression of 50% as you go from the traditional classroom to the online medium so now
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the question is of course what happens to the other minutes right and I think it's helpful to break those up into a
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couple of buckets uh the first bucket is just there are certain things that we do
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in the classroom we unfortunately cannot replicate on the Mooks these are case discussions game exercises those are
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moments that Carl describes those are things that only can happen when we're
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together but I also have to point out that there is a fair bit of waste in what we do in the classroom and that has
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to do just do with the fact that different students learn at different rates when a student struggles on the
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move they can just rewind or they can just read something and then catch up again whereas in the classroom you're
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constrained by a common pace for everyone and so you really do gain efficiency you gain productivity as you
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take the same group of students and have them moved over to a hybrid model and I
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think Carl has been on the Forefront on this in the core again we uh I don't
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think we're quite as far but the direction is certainly clear we have to benefit from that new technology now
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despite the you know evident uh advantages of muks one of the challenges that all muks face is that the
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completion rate typically tend to be uh pretty low uh and I wonder both as teachers and as researchers what you
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have learned through your experience that might be relevant to the B schools well the the completion rate statistic
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really is a red herring I mean people like to to trot it out but it it it doesn't seem terribly relevant to me if
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you think about what the barrier is to registering for a moo it's literally one
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click in the Corsair environment so many people enroll to to check it out to watch a few videos to see what it's all
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about my moo requires hundreds of hours of effort uh to complete a substantial design project very very few people are
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willing to put in hundreds of hours but but many people are interested in learning a bit about customer needs or
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Aesthetics in design or prototyping so they watch a few videos so we really think pretty carefully and mukes about
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three categories of Learners those who are just browsing those who want to view the material but won't do the work and
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then those who will do all of the work and I I think the so as I say that that that narrow completion statistic I don't
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think is terribly meaningful in terms of evaluating the success of the muks yeah
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it's a classic example of what often times people do when an innovation comes
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out they take a performance metric that is designed to evaluate the old technology which is kind of brick and
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Mortal learning and they take that old metric you know completion rates is an important thing if you pay uh you know
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$120,000 for your mbba degree or or even more dollars when you send your kids to
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college their completion rate is a really really important number to track uh and we are anchoring this on the kind
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of the 95 plus% completion rate that we have in that world taking that number and comparing it to the 5% in the moo
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just absolutely makes no sense as K describes most of these people since they don't have to pay anything they
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just click and register in an effort that you would maybe browse through a store when you retail kind of in a
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retail experience you check out an item and you wonder like oh do I want that well this is not in some sense
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purchasing it's just looking at something and the it's just the nature of the web that every looking instance
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is actually recording as you enrolling so I think that that statistic is in that sense not telling anything and we
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should focus much more on the participation that once of the students is in and again we see the segmentation
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that some of the students really just want to do some videos they just want to watch this stuff and then there are
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those students who really do the work those that drop out at the beginning because they really find that this was
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maybe not what they were looking for I really couldn't care less so so let let's push a little further on that
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$120,000 number you mentioned that MBA students pay to attend uh an MBA program uh and as you correctly said joining a
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moo costs nothing at all mean given the fact that to produce content for a Muk uh is expensive in terms of time and
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money how do you think muks can be made financially sustainable it it's actually not very
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expensive so if you look at what it costs to develop a moo it's it's in in
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in a sustainable mode in the long run it' be about $70,000 but but we reach with a Muk
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several hundred thousand students so we really look at it if you look at it on a
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on a per viewer basis it runs to about 50 cents per person and at 50 cents per person that's cheaper than almost any
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other form of Outreach that we do at the Warton school and 50 cents for that kind
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of Engagement very very inexpensive so I'd like to object to the idea that they're expensive they're just not very
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expensive well a little bit further math might might might help here right so we
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as Elite universities Elite business schools are in the business of creating reputation reputation is important it
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will drive our demand it will drive how our graduates are viewed in the market so reputation is key how do you create
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reputation the traditional vehicle of reputation building was research so if you do some numbers on how much it costs
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us when Carl and I sit down and we write a scholarly article that makes a cut into the best academic journals we found
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in our report that it takes us somewhere around 3 $400,000 of research Investments to just
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get one scholarly article out for that money for one single paper we can basically create somewhere around three
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four five muks with the enrollment that we just talked about the other reference
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point that we might use is just the University of Pennsylvania's operating budget
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multibillion the Wharton schools operating budgets hundreds of millions and what we're spending on Ms we're
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spending about 0.1% and if not a little less of our budget on muks that apparently we all
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believe is z key technology for the future so this notion that we're overspending I don't buy other forms of
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disruptions other forms of concerns we need to discuss but the notion that this is expensive and we're stealing money
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from our kind of traditional customers and giving that content away for free that threat I think is not real yeah
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that that was not the point I was trying to drive at I mean clearly there is a huge value to to the knowledge that is
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disseminated through the muks uh the the question of course is that different schools are trying to monetize them in
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different ways uh at places like Harvard for example they have introduced a paid
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pre-mba program if you were to look at some of the different economic models that are being wrapped around muks uh
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could you of give me your thoughts on where do you think this is going and which model is are likely to be most
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sustainable well the the first thing I I think we should do is distinguish between muks and other forms of online
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education because I think muks are fundamentally about Outreach and social Mission and that's and they're not very
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expensive and so I think we can easily justify them based just on this this the social value that's created now that's
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not to say that there aren't some nice economic opportunities for online education and I would say at at Wharton
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there are two that that we think could be important one is Executive Education if you look at how expensive it is to
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send someone physically to Philadelphia to spend a week in Executive Education it's a it's a maybe A5 or $10,000 cost
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and we may be able to deliver some of the benefits of that experience much less expensively using technology so
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that's one the other is that we think that a place like pen and Wharton can be
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the originator of content that's used in instruction by other institutions and
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that like with textbooks there's a way to charge P per use or per per user for
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that material and so that could be a potential Revenue Source yeah there's a
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lot of value on the table uh especially I mean going back to C's Executive Education example uh there are lots of
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people in corporate settings that come to warten and that's great but uh you
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know we're talking about tuitions of $ 7 $8,000 for a week these people traveling
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and these people being away from work and so by Design This is only some privilege that you get if you're working
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in in in top management there is a large number of other people in executive positions at the Eon below that that we
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are right now not reaching but that we could be reaching through technology they would love the learning we can
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certainly deliver through the technology at Cost Points Way South of maybe $1,000
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if not $500 for that onee learning experience online so we bring those two things together and we're going to
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generate a lot of value and there's no reason to believe that especially with a
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strong brand like we have at warten we wouldn't be able to also then capture
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some of the value for ourselves sure so I mean in other words the uh you you can
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spread the Ripple effects of Executive Education much further you know to to the lower tiers of an organization if
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you like by combining uh Executive Education and muks that's a great Point absolutely right uh well the other very
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interesting point in your research paper is that uh you said that uh you can teach existing students with fewer
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faculty members now uh given the fact that most things tend to happen in Academia when they get enough faculty
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byy in uh do you think that um uh unless there is significant faculty by in two muks uh uh are faculty members likely to
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really support something that threatens to cut down the their numbers in the future well this one is a scary thought
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but let's put this in context uh what we do in the paper is we articulate three
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scenarios that we believe can play out in the world of the super TX as as I said earlier on I I'm not too wild about
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the term of moo because we're really talking about the technology here um there are three scenarios and the reason
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why we work with scenarios history Academia is full of bad forecast and predictions so we didn't want to join
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that club we know that social systems are so complex that if you and I with car sit here and make predictions about
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the future in 10 years we're going to be wrong and so what we did is we articulate three scenarios the first
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scenario is we're going to have this new technology that makes us more productive
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we have the same faculty the same business school stay in place and so now that they are more productive they can
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reach more students for example that goes back to the Executive Education online the second scenario is the one
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that you are pointing to is that scenario where we have a constant student population because really the
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demand for top MBA programs almost by definition is Not Without Limits and so if we have fixed demand but a much more
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productive production technology but by definition they're going to be fewer of
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us and then the third scenario that we can talk about in a moment the third scenario is so disruptive that the
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business school is fall into pieces so that second scenario that we're talking
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about we call that the clowns and the movie theaters the effect of the clowns and the movie theaters is that in the
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you know 18 18 19th 20th century if you wanted entertainment you would show up to the local Village Square you would
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watch a clown they would do some funny things in front of you and you would have a laugh while now you watch a movie
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and unfortunately most clowns have lost their jobs and so the question that we're debating is to what extent Carl
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and I here are going to be the clowns of the 21st century The Other M you asked about whether faculty would resist the
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change clearly they would under that scenario but I think we already have pretty good
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evidence that in the face of cost pressure there will be a reduction in faculty I mean just look if you look at
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higher education more generally over the last 10 to 20 years the number of student credit hours taught by tenur and
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tenure track faculty has been steadily declining and there's been an increase
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in the use of adjunct in part-time faculty that is a trend driven by cost pressure yes we all didn't like it but
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it didn't mean it didn't happen and so we cannot like it but in the face of a
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competing technology that may be better and that's definitely cheaper it's very
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hard to argue that that we can completely resist it let's talk a little bit about the third scenario before
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coming back to all three of them is if when you talk about the complete un unbundling of the business school or the
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emergence of other alternatives to Business Schools uh what do you think might play out in that sort of the third
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option well I think the first thing to recognize is that the primary reason that an MBA student matriculates at the
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Wharton School or at any other top business school is because they think it's going to advance their career and
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that to some extent they want to learn some specific skills and knowledge but there really is an other there are other
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benefits that they look to to achieve and to obtain and they are access to careers uh and the development of a
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social network that will benefit them throughout their their lives and and to some extent a credentialing or a
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stamping of appr approval that distinguishes them from other people in the in the in the labor force if those
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functions of credentialing of social network and of um and of access to employers are now provided by others
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outside of Business Schools then I think our role is quite threatened and right now they're they're bundled together and
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they include this academic learning piece but if they ever become unbundled and are started to be provided by other
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institutions then I think Business Schools are threatened yeah the metaphor that Carl and I use in
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our report is the the idea of a Swiss army knife right when you purchase a Swiss army knife you don't know yet when
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are you going to use it and you don't know which part of the knife you're
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going to use for going to use first that's very similar to our MBA students they come here they get all this
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knowledge that one day in their life and sometimes 10 15 20 years into their career they might have to access but
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they don't know when and they also don't know what part and so that back the
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question is there another way of delivering that knowledge very much on demand when you want it instead of
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buying this library of videos have much more of an iTunes or Netflix model where
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you say like well I want to watch that movie today well just click on it and get it when you need it so you face a
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situation at work you're doing some m&a work well why don't you take the m&a
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course right now when you need it of the three scenarios that you outline in your
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research uh which ones do you think are most like for business schools and why well the nature of scenarios is that
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they are all somewhat unlikely otherwise we wouldn't have created them uh let
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let's add to that that these scenarios to some extent are scenarios like we would roll the dice and it's going to be
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1 2 3 4 5 six right it's it's exogenous it's a shock it's Randomness and it's
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just hard to predict but to some extent these scenarios are also active choices there are strategies especially at the
00:23:28
top schools especially in the leadership of the school we can make some choices that will influence the future and that
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will basically you know fall into these three buckets uh personally I feel that we are well under the way of playing
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scenario one we have done the moo for outreach we're experimenting with Executive Education we need to do more
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but we're clearly on the way on scenario one I would love us to play a little bit
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with scenario 3 that's the furthest out scenario two I think right now we're in
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this privileged situation here at Wharton at least that the cost pressure has not been quite as big and the
00:24:05
implementation feasibility the kind of the reluctance obviously from us as a faculty to embrace this that's not going
00:24:12
to be the first point where we start so I would put my money as somebody making a strategy on a combination of one and
00:24:18
yeah I I would I think there scenario two I think is pretty likely there's going to be some decline in faculty size
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that the cost pressure is unavoidable I don't think it'll be a catastrophic
00:24:30
decline in faculty I think it'll be my prediction would be a modest decline in
00:24:34
faculty um I think actually to build on Christian's point we need to aggressively pursue scenario one pathway
00:24:43
one in order to mitigate pathway 3 and so in particular I think we have an opportunity at Wharton and at the other
00:24:51
Elite Business Schools to create an unrivaled educational experience for students but one in which they learn a
00:24:57
lot of the RO subjects the more mechanical subjects online and without the use of expensive faculty resource
00:25:04
then when they're here together we challenge ourselves to give them an experience that they couldn't get
00:25:09
anywhere else and by doing so we reinforce the value of them participating in the Wharton experience
00:25:15
and that helps us mitigate against the unbundling that could happen in pathway 3 what surprised you most about this
00:25:21
research that you've done what was your biggest surprise I have to say you know
00:25:27
our our analysis is just arithmetic it's just adding and subtracting a little bit
00:25:31
division but we were quite surprised at what scholarship costs just how expensive it is and how expensive it is
00:25:37
relative to the the educational activities of the school that surprised me yeah for me the biggest surprise has
00:25:44
been how seriously threatened our institution and the Business School Community is asess I said at the
00:25:51
beginning this is the institution we've been employed for over 20 years with
00:25:56
kind of with graduate school this has made our careers that has been at least for me I I think I can speak for Carl on
00:26:02
this front this has been the perfect job that we love uh the institution that we
00:26:07
love and nevertheless you when you run those numbers you feel how threatened that ecosystem is there is no guarantee
00:26:16
that in 20 years from now we're going to have the same business model going as it
00:26:20
is right now well do your research focuses primarily on Business Schools in the MBA program uh what do you think uh
00:26:27
in your research could apply more broadly to U higher education as a whole higher education sees the same
00:26:36
pressures and the same threats and opportunities in fact to some extent the other parts of the University have felt
00:26:42
them before Business Schools my wife's a professor in in the English Department
00:26:47
at Penn and they've already seen tremendous cost pressures and they've seen that that impact on that they've
00:26:54
seen that impact the faculty ranks the way they do and the way they do instruction
00:26:58
so I don't really think Business Schools are terribly unique they are somewhat
00:27:03
unique I think in well I would say professional schools are somewhat unique in that the primary purpose of paying
00:27:10
the tuition dollars is to advance yourself in your career and that's unique to professional schools as
00:27:15
opposed to say an undergraduate experience which I think is much less threatened because an undergraduate
00:27:21
experience is much more about going away finding your identity having enabling experiences building a commun social
00:27:28
network those things I think are much harder to substitute at least for the elite universities the IVs and so forth
00:27:36
yeah so I think certainly we as business schools are particularly threatened because
00:27:41
again I think we're used to this very high tuition very high salary type of Lifestyle we could afford ourselves that
00:27:48
luxury of not looking at efficiency something that in many of the second and third year schools in many of the other
00:27:54
fields outside Business Schools those things these guys have been under that cost pressure so many years ahead of us
00:28:02
that I think they are better prepared I think the small liberal arts colleges they don't have this Dual Purpose that
00:28:08
we talked about earlier on the research and the teaching for them it's all about
00:28:12
the education of the student and so as long as they do that that well as long as they serve their customers the
00:28:18
student well people will be willing to pay for it I think we are threaten in particular about that scenario of
00:28:25
unbundling the teaching and the research that is something that is pretty unique
00:28:29
to law schools and Business Schools I have an appointment at the medical school where the tradition is much more
00:28:35
like if you want to bring research if you want to spend time doing research have somebody pay for it bring in the
00:28:41
research dollars this cross subsidy is actually something that is not that broadly applicable other than the the
00:28:48
kind of the social sciences and I think that's the one where I would feel we're
00:28:53
going to see some big pressure mounting and if we can can have just one last question what what future topics for
00:29:00
research uh do you think are sort of thrown up as a result of what you've studied so far I would love to see more
00:29:07
insights into the scenario 3 into this unbundling we make it sound so nasty in many ways it's unbundling the business
00:29:16
school falls into pieces I think it's actually not that bad and in many ways
00:29:21
quite exciting right because what you do is right now when we do research there's
00:29:26
really other than the perer evaluation there's there's there's no measurement
00:29:29
of quality there's no feedback whether what we research actually one day that
00:29:33
new knowledge is is is used anywhere in practice if you think about scenario three where the students learn on demand
00:29:40
what they need in practice that would actually create an enormous pull from the market that would direct us where we
00:29:48
develop new content where we develop research and I think would be actually a very interesting development in terms of
00:29:55
guiding our research where it is mattering the most in practice so I would love to see more of research
00:30:03
understanding scenario 3 understanding exactly that business model and how that activity system is falling into
00:30:09
different pieces but then these pieces are potentially managed by different organizations uh that is something where
00:30:15
I would love to spend more time on and I certainly will i' I'd very much my
00:30:20
Personal Agenda I'd very much like to see a quarter to a third of the content
00:30:25
of our MBA program U move to more self-directed asynchronous learning online and I think one of the real
00:30:32
challenges there is how you assess competence and how you assess and and I think it's actually an opportunity
00:30:38
because right now we don't assess competence in business education we simply assess did you complete the
00:30:44
degree per did you complete these courses get a passing grade in the courses so I think there's actually an
00:30:49
opportunity to improve what we do by developing some methods of assessing how good you are when you graduate from the
00:30:56
Wharton School and if we can do that we can both improve the quality of the education a student gets and we can
00:31:03
possibly make it better by moving some of the the the instruction online great uh Christian Carl thank you so much for
00:31:11
joining us today hey thanks for having us here thank you [Music]