00:00:00
Our favorite stat from the original
00:00:02
paper was one we called the better than
00:00:05
the next guy stat, which is take any two
00:00:09
players who play the same position, who
00:00:12
are drafted one after the other. So, the
00:00:15
third running back compared to the
00:00:17
fourth. And we say, "What's the
00:00:19
probability that the earlier player is
00:00:22
better than the next one?"
00:00:24
And in the original paper, the answer to
00:00:26
that question was
00:00:28
52%.
00:00:29
Now, if they're perfect, it's 100.
00:00:32
If they're random, it's 50. It's a
00:00:34
little higher in the first round. And
00:00:37
so, that was the first question is,
00:00:39
"Well, now we've got stats and the
00:00:42
combine and AI and who knows? Maybe
00:00:47
they've gotten a lot better at this."
00:00:49
And the answer is they haven't.
00:00:52
That number's now 53%.
00:00:55
First round, 58%.
00:00:58
So, they've not all of a sudden mastered
00:01:01
the art
00:01:03
of predicting who's going to be good.
