00:00:00
Welcome everybody to Wharton Moneyball
00:00:02
here on the Wharton podcast network.
00:00:04
This is Eric Bradlo, professor of
00:00:06
marketing statistics and data science
00:00:07
here at the Wharton School. Today I'm
00:00:09
joined by my co-host, longtime friend
00:00:10
and collaborator Shane Jensen. Uh some
00:00:13
combination of the two of us, Kade
00:00:14
Massie and Audi Winer are here every
00:00:16
week on Wharton Moneyball. Um Shane,
00:00:19
I've always said the best part of our
00:00:21
show, we know it's not the pay we get.
00:00:24
We know it's not the glory. Although I
00:00:28
did show you tell you guys my story that
00:00:30
I was a at a winery in Oregon and a guy
00:00:33
came up to me and said, "You're the
00:00:35
Wharton Moneyball guy." That was
00:00:37
priceless. Let me just tell you, Shane.
00:00:39
But the real best part of our show is
00:00:42
that we get talk to we get to talk to
00:00:44
people that are doing sports analytics,
00:00:46
the intersection of the two right in the
00:00:49
field, the people that are living it,
00:00:50
breathing it. And today, certainly a
00:00:53
longtime guest of the show, uh, someone
00:00:55
who needs no introduction to our Wharton
00:00:57
Moneyball audience, and that's Bill
00:00:58
Connelly. Bill's going to talk to us
00:01:01
today about lots of topics, tennis,
00:01:02
college football, etc. But Bill, as
00:01:05
always, welcome back to Wharton
00:01:06
Moneyball.
00:01:07
>> Always always fun. I'm just hoping that
00:01:09
my uh dogs don't bark too much. They're
00:01:11
trying to I I can never be too
00:01:12
professional here. So, um,
00:01:14
>> well, we're we're informal here, as you
00:01:16
know, on Morton Moneyball. So, Bill,
00:01:18
just so everybody knows, where what
00:01:20
what's your actual title right now?
00:01:22
Where can people follow you? Where can
00:01:24
they see the content? Well, we know
00:01:26
content from you is all over the place
00:01:28
now, but you if you could just tell our
00:01:29
listeners your title, where to find your
00:01:32
content, etc., that'd be great.
00:01:34
>> Uh, I think the title is pretty
00:01:35
straight. It's just staff writer uh with
00:01:37
ESPN.com. But, yeah, obviously obviously
00:01:41
the intention there was mostly college
00:01:43
football and remains mostly college
00:01:45
football. But once I was kind of in the
00:01:47
in the walls, they couldn't get rid of
00:01:49
me. And suddenly I'm doing tennis and
00:01:50
soccer and softball and and a number of
00:01:53
other things. So I always like doing
00:01:55
that. It's it's like a pallet cleanser
00:01:56
and I I I get more energy for college
00:01:59
football when I'm doing other stuff,
00:02:00
too, I think.
00:02:02
>> Well, let me let's ask you since, you
00:02:03
know, I think Kade Massie, our one of
00:02:05
our our primary hosts, if you'd like, is
00:02:07
going to be joining us in a little bit.
00:02:08
And of course, there's no one that cares
00:02:11
more about college football than the two
00:02:12
of you guys. So, I might hold off on
00:02:14
that just for a second. Um, I'm a huge
00:02:17
tennis guy, as you know. Um, you know,
00:02:20
we've just left a big part of the
00:02:22
season. We're in a big tournament right
00:02:24
now in Cincinnati. Obviously, we have
00:02:26
the US Open upcoming. I'm thrilled that
00:02:27
I'm going to the US Open again this
00:02:29
year. Um, what what are you thinking
00:02:32
about when you're thinking about uh
00:02:34
tennis right now? Let's start with the
00:02:36
men's side. Um, and then we'll get to
00:02:38
the women's side. Um, it appears that,
00:02:40
you know, it's going to be S or Alcarez
00:02:43
winning the title. I don't know how it's
00:02:45
not going to be one of the two of them,
00:02:46
but how do you view Let's start with
00:02:48
men's professional tennis right now.
00:02:50
>> Yeah, I mean, it's kind of
00:02:51
underwhelming, honestly. Like, and I say
00:02:53
that, you know, center Alcarez matches
00:02:55
are phenomenal. Even even at Wimbledon
00:02:57
where, you know, it center took control.
00:03:00
I guess he kind of wobbled for a second
00:03:02
early on and then he took control. It
00:03:03
kind of seemed like it was going to be
00:03:04
pretty straightforward for set win. That
00:03:06
was still just the the points themselves
00:03:08
are phenomenal when those two are going.
00:03:10
It's just that you know this spring
00:03:12
there was an opportunity for the men's
00:03:13
tour to kind of take well to to to rise
00:03:16
up a little bit centers out. Alcarez was
00:03:19
injured and wobbly and there was a
00:03:21
chance for somebody to kind of seize
00:03:22
control make this kind of a big three
00:03:24
sort of thing and just failed miserably.
00:03:27
Alexander Zerv had a chance to move to
00:03:29
number one and got upset at like five
00:03:31
straight tournaments. And you know,
00:03:34
we've seen Taylor Fritz kind of max
00:03:35
himself out. There's still hope that
00:03:37
somebody like a Jack Draper or or a Ben
00:03:41
Shelton can
00:03:43
have. It sure seems like they have a lot
00:03:45
of upside and and maybe they can make
00:03:47
things interesting. But I wrote it
00:03:49
during Wimbledon that like the women's
00:03:51
tour right now is more interesting than
00:03:53
I think I've ever seen it. just the
00:03:55
number of different uh personalities and
00:03:58
and really really high caliber players.
00:04:00
Minster, we lost our big three and we
00:04:03
thought it was going to be wide open and
00:04:04
instead it was a big two that uh emerged
00:04:06
instead.
00:04:07
>> Well, let me ask you before I move away
00:04:09
from just the big two. I want do want to
00:04:11
talk about a few other players. Who do
00:04:13
you think has the max
00:04:16
of the two players? Because I've always
00:04:18
had the perception first. You could
00:04:20
comment on this too. I always thought on
00:04:22
their best day, Djokovic was not the
00:04:25
best. I never thought that. I just
00:04:26
didn't.
00:04:27
>> But
00:04:29
over 15 years, they're not going to have
00:04:33
their best day. And he's definitely the
00:04:35
max men cuz he was great on every day.
00:04:38
But if Federer was at the top of his
00:04:40
game, if Nadal was the top game, look, I
00:04:42
saw Stan Roinka blow away Djokovic best
00:04:45
Andy Murray blow away Djokovic. Um, I
00:04:48
never thought he had the highest peak
00:04:50
peak peak performance, but over 15 years
00:04:54
he's clearly the most accomplished
00:04:56
tennis player. How do you feel about You
00:04:58
could talk about those three andor how
00:05:00
do you feel about center and Alvarez?
00:05:01
>> Yeah, I mean it is a Celings versus
00:05:03
Flores thing here. Um, I feel like I
00:05:05
make that reference far too much on the
00:05:07
college football side, and I'm going to
00:05:08
when we talk about college football, but
00:05:11
um, no, I mean, Djokovic, the his
00:05:13
ability to defend and grind and and just
00:05:16
wear people down, um, gave him the
00:05:18
highest floor we've ever seen. Like, we
00:05:20
knew his level was going to hit a
00:05:22
certain mark. Um, but, you know, Nadal
00:05:25
and Feder, especially, you know, Federra
00:05:28
didn't have a great record. I guess
00:05:29
their age difference was pretty
00:05:30
significant, but um you know, Federer's
00:05:33
upside was remarkable. And I do think
00:05:35
that what we see with Alcarez and center
00:05:37
now, like center just playing a neutral
00:05:39
point, like if he's just hitting the
00:05:41
ball with somebody and just uh kind of
00:05:42
messing around half focused, every ball
00:05:45
he's going to hit is going to be within
00:05:46
about two feet of the baseline. He get
00:05:48
he hits everything with just an
00:05:50
incredible depth. He he it's kind of
00:05:53
like he accidentally hits winners
00:05:54
sometimes because it's just so easy. Um
00:05:57
and and his natural game is just pretty
00:05:59
remarkable. But Alcarez, what we saw in
00:06:02
the French Open final against center
00:06:04
where you know center found a certain
00:06:06
level and didn't really blow a two set
00:06:09
lead. Alcarez just came back and took it
00:06:11
and especially late. It felt like you
00:06:14
know center in that last tiebreaker
00:06:16
didn't really every point that he lost
00:06:18
he hit at least one remarkable shot and
00:06:20
Alcarez won all those points anyway. So,
00:06:22
I think that's that is really what we're
00:06:24
dealing with is when Alcarez I think
00:06:26
he's got about the highest ceiling we've
00:06:28
ever seen, but center's floor might be,
00:06:32
you know, peak Djokovic at some point as
00:06:34
well. Like he just he defends well. He
00:06:36
moves well. He it feels like he has to
00:06:38
take about a step and a half to reach
00:06:40
one uh end of the court and the other
00:06:42
and you just can't get anything by him.
00:06:44
And um it's really incredible to watch.
00:06:47
I I I didn't really always enjoy the
00:06:49
kind of suffer ball matches that
00:06:51
Jookovic and Murray played. And it feels
00:06:53
like center is kind of a natural
00:06:54
sufferball guy, but he's just got such
00:06:56
natural offense, too, that he he's still
00:06:59
really entertaining.
00:07:00
>> But let's also remember the, you know,
00:07:03
how many match points S had at the
00:07:05
French. S's one point away from holding
00:07:08
all four grand slams right now. So, as
00:07:11
much as we want to say Djokovic's
00:07:13
ceiling is higher, and I happen to I
00:07:15
mean, uh Alcarazz's ceiling is higher,
00:07:17
and I happen to agree with you,
00:07:18
>> center is one point away from having the
00:07:21
center slam.
00:07:22
>> Yeah, it looked like we were kind of in
00:07:24
a situation where it was going to be
00:07:25
center on hard courts and Alcarez on the
00:07:27
natural courts, but then center beat him
00:07:30
at Wimbledon pretty comfortably. And
00:07:32
yeah, like you said, had had match
00:07:34
point, had championship point in Paris
00:07:35
as well. So, his he's pretty ridiculous.
00:07:38
And I and I do hope for the sake of the
00:07:40
men's game. I I I do think Draper and
00:07:42
Shelton in particular um
00:07:44
>> are are I don't know if they're the most
00:07:46
likely, but I think that'd be Shelton
00:07:50
especially with his personality. That'd
00:07:51
be a really fun addition if he can find
00:07:54
another level, but right now he can beat
00:07:56
pretty much anybody in the game except
00:07:57
Alcarz and Center. Um so he he's kind of
00:08:00
stuck there. I don't know how he makes
00:08:01
up that difference. Yeah, I said this on
00:08:04
the show a couple weeks ago after SR had
00:08:06
won that I think that changed the
00:08:08
trajectory of men's tennis for those
00:08:10
two. And the reason I say that is had
00:08:11
Alcarez won,
00:08:13
>> he would have been up six majors to
00:08:15
three.
00:08:15
>> Yeah.
00:08:16
>> He would have a 9 and4 record
00:08:19
>> against at that time he would have had a
00:08:21
9 and4 record including beating him the
00:08:23
last five times had he won that match.
00:08:26
So that match really leveled the playing
00:08:29
field especially given it was at
00:08:30
Wimbledon. He was the two-time defending
00:08:32
champ. I thought that match was crucial
00:08:35
in their rivalry going forward. I don't
00:08:37
know how you saw it from a let's call it
00:08:38
historical perspective.
00:08:40
>> Yeah. I mean, I was pretty comfortable
00:08:41
thinking that center was the better
00:08:42
overall player, but one of the fun
00:08:44
things about this rivalry right now is
00:08:45
that the lower ranked t player usually
00:08:47
wins. Uh center was the, you know, he
00:08:49
kind of broke that streak as well at
00:08:52
Wimbledon. So, I am hoping that they
00:08:54
kind of just figure out ways to top each
00:08:55
other. That's how the big three really
00:08:57
became what they did was they had to
00:08:59
figure out how to, you know, Nadal was
00:09:01
kind of built to beat Federer and then
00:09:03
Federer had to fill a couple holes in
00:09:04
his game. Got what got back on top of
00:09:06
Nadal late in their rivalry. That was
00:09:08
that made it a lot of fun. So hopefully
00:09:10
Alcarez can generate whatever he needs
00:09:13
to to to make sure that center doesn't
00:09:15
pull away. But if somebody's going to
00:09:16
pull away right now, it's going to be
00:09:17
center. He's remarkably consistent.
00:09:19
>> I agree with that. What's your you had
00:09:21
mentioned the diversity or the diffusion
00:09:24
of talent in the women's game. I think
00:09:26
you and I both agree on any possibly
00:09:28
every given point on any given match
00:09:30
Sabalena is the most talented player.
00:09:33
However,
00:09:35
>> you know, I'm not saying only, but she
00:09:38
only has three grand slams. Let's not
00:09:40
make it seem like she's got 10. I mean,
00:09:42
Swantech, I think, has six now. I think
00:09:45
four French, a US Open, and a Wimbledon.
00:09:48
And you know, uh, she's clearly the most
00:09:51
accomplished player. Um, I think if
00:09:53
Sabalena plays her best, she beats Swan
00:09:56
Techch, I think. I think. I'm not I'm
00:09:58
not sure of that. Well, look, there's
00:10:00
Koko Goff, who's a major champion.
00:10:02
Madison Keys just recently won a major
00:10:04
championship. There's Robbakana who's
00:10:06
won a championship recently. Bonusa won
00:10:08
a championship recently. On the women's
00:10:10
side, I think there's some streak going
00:10:12
on. You may remember this, Bill,
00:10:13
something like nine or 10 different
00:10:15
winners like out of some number of
00:10:17
tournaments. It's like there's not even
00:10:19
been a much of a repeat champion on the
00:10:21
women's side. So, how do you see that?
00:10:23
>> Yeah, I think I mean it's funny anytime
00:10:25
you start talking about the women's
00:10:26
game, you know, it's best of three, so
00:10:28
it is a little more random than the
00:10:29
men's in the slams. Um, and and really
00:10:32
you can see whatever you want to see. If
00:10:33
you want to say like there's no
00:10:35
standout, I know Muratagloo, uh, Osaka's
00:10:38
coach had a ridiculous line about how I
00:10:41
just don't see any elite players right
00:10:42
now. Like, are you freaking kidding me?
00:10:44
Like, right now, we have at least three
00:10:46
Hall of Famers at the top of the sport.
00:10:48
Like, Zabalinka has certainly blown some
00:10:50
matches. She gets, but she's there in
00:10:52
every single what is it like?
00:10:54
>> I I didn't I
00:10:55
>> It's 10 or 11 straight at least quarter.
00:10:58
>> 10 of 11 10 of 11 semis in like 11
00:11:00
straight quarters or something like
00:11:01
that. She's always there.
00:11:05
Has until she lost to Zabalinka in the
00:11:07
French Open, she was on the rough and a
00:11:08
doll pace in terms of French Open titles
00:11:10
at a certain age. Uh Koko Goff is is has
00:11:14
she turned 20? She's not 22 yet. She has
00:11:16
two slams already. Um and usually two
00:11:19
usually two gets you in. So if she quits
00:11:22
to tomorrow, she might be a Hall of
00:11:23
Famer. I I don't think she's going to
00:11:25
quit tomorrow. But if you accept that,
00:11:27
okay, if you're in the Hall of Fame,
00:11:28
that probably means you are awesome.
00:11:31
Then look at all the players who have
00:11:32
beaten Zebalinka, Fiontech in golf of
00:11:34
late. Like Fiontech still can't ever
00:11:36
beat um Elena Oapinko. And Osta Pinko is
00:11:39
just a one note hit everything as hard
00:11:41
as you can player. Um
00:11:43
>> who's got a major
00:11:44
>> who has she does um and and it's really
00:11:47
fun. I'm always rooting for her to make
00:11:49
a run because she's just so fun to
00:11:50
watch. But then, you know, Rabbakana has
00:11:53
has landed a lot of shots against
00:11:54
Zabalinka and SPTECH and Goff struggled
00:11:57
against um Navaro last year and you just
00:12:00
you start to tie this all together and
00:12:02
you start to realize like there are 20
00:12:04
players like you know we have three Hall
00:12:06
of Famers at the top and like 20 players
00:12:08
in a given tournament could win that
00:12:10
tournament just based on well based on
00:12:12
the randomness of best of three and just
00:12:14
the fact
00:12:14
>> just won just won and Boo just won the
00:12:18
Toronto or what I forget if it was
00:12:20
Toronto or Montreal Montreal. Montreal.
00:12:21
>> Montreal. But and she beat like four top
00:12:24
20 players.
00:12:25
>> Yeah. She was unbelievable in that
00:12:27
tournament. And she basically she
00:12:29
crushes everything she touches and and
00:12:31
and beat a couple players who took the
00:12:33
first step from her. She just continued
00:12:35
to land body blow after body blow and
00:12:37
they started to break down. I thought,
00:12:39
you know, Osaka certainly looked like
00:12:40
she was in the clear to finally kind of
00:12:42
make her big breakthrough after in this
00:12:45
last year and a half since she came back
00:12:46
from maternity leave and then Embucko
00:12:49
wore her down physically and then
00:12:51
emotionally like the the number of
00:12:53
players who are really interesting. I
00:12:55
just, you know, when when a slam starts,
00:12:57
I find myself like having having center
00:13:00
Alcraz at the end is fun, but I find
00:13:01
myself for the first week and a half of
00:13:03
a given slam paying far more attention
00:13:05
to the women's side than the men's
00:13:07
because starting in about the second
00:13:08
round, you have some wildly impressive
00:13:11
matchups on the on the women's side. I
00:13:12
just I it's a really really fun tour to
00:13:15
follow. Lots of different personalities,
00:13:17
shapes, sizes, ages. You got like three
00:13:19
different generations that are all
00:13:20
producing top five level play right now.
00:13:23
And it's just a lot of fun. And I I do
00:13:26
kind of worry about the men's side. You
00:13:28
know, obviously lots of great athletes
00:13:30
and and fun games on the men's side,
00:13:32
too. But you do kind of know who's going
00:13:35
to win in the end, especially with slams
00:13:38
and and right now.
00:13:38
>> Well, the challenge also is remember
00:13:40
this happened with the big three for so
00:13:42
long is that you're going to have to
00:13:44
beat probably Sinner and Alcarez
00:13:47
>> to to win a slam. So that's, you know,
00:13:50
and with the big three, it was at least
00:13:51
two of them. And that's the challenge.
00:13:53
Like, can, you know, can um, you know,
00:13:55
can someone beat Alcarz on a given day?
00:13:58
Probably more so than Sinner. Yeah. But
00:14:00
then you have Sinner waiting for you in
00:14:02
the final. So that's that's the
00:14:03
challenge.
00:14:04
>> Yeah. And and that's kind of immediately
00:14:05
where you look anytime a draw comes out.
00:14:07
Like if we're going to have any sort of
00:14:08
person with any sort of chance like
00:14:11
who's not on the side of center Djokovic
00:14:14
still and Alcarez like whoever is in
00:14:17
that other quarter maybe they get lucky.
00:14:18
Maybe you know Alcarez gets distracted
00:14:20
by clouds for too long and accidentally
00:14:22
loses or something. But um man yeah it's
00:14:25
it's great to have that at the end. But
00:14:27
I I the the women's tour is is just an
00:14:30
absolute blast right now. I think our
00:14:32
college football person just entered the
00:14:34
uh
00:14:34
>> Yeah. Well, before we move on to college
00:14:35
football, one one last question about
00:14:37
tennis. Um
00:14:39
>> how do you think you just made the
00:14:41
comment that some people have said
00:14:42
there's no like greats in the game today
00:14:46
on the women's side? Yeah. Um, how do
00:14:48
you think about because we've talked
00:14:49
about this, Shane knows, we've we've
00:14:51
talked about this comparing eras and
00:14:52
sports as someone that writes for ESPN,
00:14:55
but someone I think that has not a
00:14:57
historical knowledge of tennis or you
00:14:58
could even think about it for college
00:15:00
football like, you know, last year's
00:15:02
Ohio State team did not play Alabama of
00:15:05
2009. They didn't play, you know, they
00:15:08
just didn't play each other. How do you
00:15:10
think about comparing
00:15:12
today's women's players with obviously
00:15:14
the person's pining whoever this is
00:15:16
pining for the Serena Williams days or
00:15:19
you know the Martina Na Talova and Chris
00:15:22
Everett days. Well, all right. But you
00:15:23
know Swante isn't playing them. So how
00:15:26
do you think about comparing different
00:15:28
eras in sports? Yeah, I mean I saw
00:15:30
Serena lose to a lot of pretty mediocre
00:15:32
players like the the you know she showed
00:15:34
up more often than obviously anybody
00:15:36
ever has on the on the women's side and
00:15:38
and when her best was about as was
00:15:41
probably as good as we've ever seen. But
00:15:43
I mean she was still vulnerable to
00:15:44
upsets at times. So, I don't really I it
00:15:47
does feel like the whole, you know,
00:15:52
nostalgia thing and everything was
00:15:54
always better in the past really really
00:15:56
rears its head with with tennis and
00:15:58
especially women's tennis. Um, but like
00:16:00
Lindsay Davenport, Serena Williams,
00:16:02
Venus, all these players were incredible
00:16:04
and also lost a lot. Uh, because best of
00:16:06
three is really hard. So, um, you know,
00:16:09
that's I I I think the depth of of
00:16:12
talent and athleticism and really kind
00:16:15
of diversity on the women's tour is is
00:16:17
as high as I can remember it, at least
00:16:19
going back to, you know, maybe in the
00:16:20
mid 2000s when you had kind of peak
00:16:24
Serena or near peak Serena and Venus and
00:16:27
Davenport and um, uh, Morzmo and, you
00:16:33
know, you still had Henn and Kers like
00:16:35
maybe that was deeper. Um, but this is
00:16:38
at least the best I think we've seen in
00:16:40
20 years.
00:16:41
>> Well, Shane, you wanted to jump in,
00:16:42
please.
00:16:42
>> Yeah, Bill, I just kind of you're kind
00:16:44
of talking about sort of like, you know,
00:16:46
like his rankings and kind of, you know,
00:16:48
them over time. Um, Eric, when he asked
00:16:52
the question was talk brought up both
00:16:53
tennis and also just kind of I think
00:16:55
we're going to transition to college
00:16:56
football. This might be a good kind of
00:16:58
way to do that. Um, can you comment
00:17:00
maybe on like how much like if you said
00:17:02
something like an ELO ranking or person
00:17:04
like like a a sport where it's a a
00:17:07
player specific sport like an individual
00:17:09
specific sport and how con or or how
00:17:13
consistent that kind of player ranking
00:17:14
or how slowly that evolves over time
00:17:16
versus like you know team based rankings
00:17:19
and say college football year to year.
00:17:21
You could probably use some kind of ELO
00:17:23
model for that too but it might be a lot
00:17:25
less consistent or maybe more. I don't
00:17:26
know.
00:17:27
>> Yeah. I mean, I I I do lean a lot on the
00:17:29
tennis abstract numbers. Um,
00:17:31
>> yep,
00:17:31
>> that's an incredible site. And that's
00:17:34
kind of how at the start of every
00:17:35
tournament, especially every slam, I
00:17:37
always take a big look at um, you know,
00:17:39
the the abstract odds. And I was just
00:17:41
looking I had already had it pulled up
00:17:43
when you were when you started talking.
00:17:44
So, like of the in in in his uh in Jeff
00:17:48
Sackman's ELO rankings there, top 14
00:17:51
players on the women's tour, five of
00:17:53
them have had their best their peak
00:17:55
their peak rating in 2025. So, you've
00:17:58
got a lot of those, but then you got
00:18:00
five more who were in 2024. Madison Keys
00:18:02
peaked in 2016. Sitelina peaked in 2018.
00:18:06
It it really is kind of a broad range of
00:18:09
players who have been really really
00:18:11
solid for a long time and then also
00:18:12
players who are peaking now. And I don't
00:18:14
know, like it's just it's really fun to
00:18:16
to just look at the list and see, you
00:18:18
know, an 18-year-old Embokco really
00:18:21
close in the ratings to a third nearly
00:18:22
31y old Spidilina. Um just a lot of
00:18:26
different generations bringing bringing
00:18:28
a really high level. And I'm pretty sure
00:18:29
if I looked at the men's tour right now,
00:18:31
it'd be kind of a different be a lot of
00:18:32
people who peaked in 2025, but their
00:18:34
peaks aren't very big right now.
00:18:36
>> Well, we' spent a good amount of time on
00:18:38
tennis. It's good to get your thoughts,
00:18:40
Bill, on uh both the previous
00:18:42
tournaments and of course the upcoming
00:18:43
US Open. Uh but even more importantly,
00:18:46
our friend, colleague, and primary host,
00:18:48
Kade Massia, joined the face of college
00:18:51
football, certainly of Wharton
00:18:52
Moneyball, if not broader. So, I'm glad
00:18:54
that Kate's here to start our discussion
00:18:56
of college football.
00:18:57
>> Thanks, Eric. Apologies, guys. Uh of all
00:19:00
the weeks to have technological issues,
00:19:02
my gosh, this is my favorite week of the
00:19:04
year. Little little college football
00:19:06
preview. Um, we get Godfrey here in the
00:19:09
next week or two. So, we're going to
00:19:10
split the O' Connelly Godfrey uh
00:19:13
partnership as our preview, but we we
00:19:15
get Bill C. I'm always excited to talk
00:19:17
to Bill C, but especially this time of
00:19:19
year. My god.
00:19:21
>> Um, Bill, how how are you? How are you
00:19:24
feeling? How what what are you excited
00:19:26
about?
00:19:27
>> I'm always curious when it's me that I'm
00:19:29
ready for the season because usually,
00:19:31
you know, everybody starts ramping like
00:19:32
I've been talking about it for months
00:19:33
and then everybody starts ramping up in
00:19:35
media days. I'm like, man, I'm not
00:19:36
ready. I just I need a little more time
00:19:38
here
00:19:38
>> that you know that's that's humbling to
00:19:40
the rest of us because you're writing
00:19:41
like conference previews in February.
00:19:44
>> Well, I I can't anymore because the
00:19:46
roster is all completely flipping in
00:19:47
May. But um you know, no like I I
00:19:50
finished my my big conference previews
00:19:53
which because conferences are so big,
00:19:54
those previews are now like 10,000 words
00:19:56
per conference. Um, but yeah, finish
00:19:59
those in July and then I go through kind
00:20:02
of my, you know, I have my my annual
00:20:04
pieces like the ifs list and the most
00:20:06
important players and all this that are
00:20:07
basically designed to get me ready.
00:20:09
People seem to like them, but really I
00:20:11
write them for me just so I can get
00:20:12
everything lined up in my head. And I
00:20:14
think I'm there. I between between those
00:20:17
pieces and I just finalized my the the
00:20:20
last SPS plus rankings to be released I
00:20:22
think on Thursday and um laying out a
00:20:26
couple pieces here coming up. I I took
00:20:28
my first dive into the small school
00:20:29
universe. I know when all the big games
00:20:31
are for like you know D2 and NIA and
00:20:33
whatnot. So I think some point either
00:20:35
today or yesterday it clicked. I'm I'm
00:20:37
ready. I'm we're we're good to go here.
00:20:40
>> Okay. Well,
00:20:42
I'm glad to hear it. Um, but I also this
00:20:45
is a different season for you because
00:20:47
you've got a big book launching. I I
00:20:48
went to get the book and I was mad
00:20:50
because the book's not available until
00:20:52
September two, I think.
00:20:53
>> I mean, I could send you a PDF just for
00:20:55
the record. Like I think you get special
00:20:56
I think you get special priv privileges
00:20:58
here if you want them.
00:21:00
>> I'm ready. Send it. I'm ready.
00:21:02
>> Want you to xerox it and scan it if you
00:21:05
could.
00:21:05
>> God Godfrey said the same thing. Like if
00:21:07
you send me a PDF, I'm just going to go
00:21:08
to Kinko's and print it. It's God.
00:21:13
Exact.
00:21:15
Um, well, tell us something about the
00:21:17
book. And I've got some questions about
00:21:19
the season. Let's do your book real
00:21:20
quick. Tell what is the book? What's the
00:21:22
gist of the book? Why the book now? And
00:21:24
I I won't even oo and over the fact that
00:21:26
you wrote this book while you do
00:21:27
everything else you do. I don't know how
00:21:28
you write all you do, but tell us about
00:21:30
the book. September 2 available. What's
00:21:31
it What's it called?
00:21:33
>> Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide
00:21:35
to the Future of College Football. Now,
00:21:37
uh, I love the title. Also, it's a whole
00:21:39
bunch of me going, I don't know. Um, so
00:21:41
I don't know how definitive it really
00:21:42
is, but um, you know, that's just the
00:21:45
odds brain in me. I can never actually
00:21:47
say anything with certainty. Um, no,
00:21:49
it's basically how do we get here? Where
00:21:51
are we going? But, you know, it's it's
00:21:52
half history book, half what ended up
00:21:55
being like a manifesto of where I think
00:21:57
she things should go or what the actual
00:21:59
worry signs are. Because in college
00:22:01
football especially with every sport
00:22:02
really, but in college football
00:22:03
especially, anything we don't like, any
00:22:05
change we don't like, we think it's
00:22:06
going to kill college football. But you
00:22:09
can't find a single thing right now that
00:22:11
suggests that there's any like ratings
00:22:13
are great, attendance is good. Like it
00:22:16
seems like things are pretty healthy,
00:22:17
but you know the
00:22:19
>> the inequality behind the scenes has me
00:22:20
very concerned at the moment because I
00:22:22
think that's only going to get worse.
00:22:24
Um, and I just wanted to kind of
00:22:27
separate things out like so much has
00:22:29
changed so quickly that we just kind of
00:22:33
think of it as a giant monolith of of
00:22:35
change. But, you know, I can be I can
00:22:38
tell you that, you know, some of the
00:22:40
conference realignment things are bad,
00:22:41
but some of the pay players thing is are
00:22:44
very good. And some of the, you know,
00:22:47
the the play arguing about like the
00:22:50
expansion of the playoff is good, but
00:22:51
this is bad, but this is good. and and I
00:22:53
just kind of wanted this, you know,
00:22:55
again, I write for myself basically. I
00:22:57
wanted to clear my own head and and I
00:22:58
think it uh it worked pretty well.
00:23:01
>> Okay. You you some people don't know
00:23:03
this about you, but you you really
00:23:04
really are a college football historian
00:23:06
in addition to being an analyst and a
00:23:08
writer. Often when we're trying to make
00:23:10
sense of current events, it helps to
00:23:12
have that long view, that historical
00:23:13
view.
00:23:14
>> Often we think that people are
00:23:15
forgetting something about the past that
00:23:17
still informs today. But it does feel
00:23:19
like maybe college football is
00:23:22
substantively different now. Maybe the
00:23:24
past is less relevant now. So my
00:23:25
question to you as the historian is
00:23:27
like, you know, can you play that
00:23:28
history card now and say, "Well, this is
00:23:30
how it used to be. Don't don't
00:23:31
overreact. We've seen this stuff before.
00:23:33
You know, it's no big deal." Or or are
00:23:35
you like, "No, no, no. This is so
00:23:36
categorically different that it's a
00:23:38
break from the past."
00:23:39
>> Well, I mean, the biggest difference is
00:23:40
after we we were arguing about, you
00:23:42
know, a playoff for 50 years. We were
00:23:44
arguing about this breakaway like the
00:23:46
biggest schools getting what they wanted
00:23:47
and breaking away for 50 years. We've
00:23:50
been arguing about all these things
00:23:51
forever. But yeah, in the 2020s these
00:23:53
things actually happened. So that that
00:23:55
alone makes it different. No question
00:23:56
about that. Um I did think, you know,
00:23:59
there's always things to learn from
00:24:01
history about, you know, how loyalty has
00:24:03
never been a thing. Like Washington
00:24:04
leaving Washington State isn't really a
00:24:06
surprise because they tried to in the
00:24:08
50s uh and just didn't succeed. Uh but
00:24:11
now that geography is officially not a
00:24:13
thing anymore, they were able to
00:24:15
actually finally uh break apart. But you
00:24:18
know, yeah, I I I think there's
00:24:19
certainly what I also tried to do was
00:24:21
was learn from other sports. Um you
00:24:23
know, how did NASCAR fall from grace?
00:24:25
What are some of the lessons we can
00:24:26
learn there? because I think that one I
00:24:28
know a lot of people have made that
00:24:29
great comparison, but I do think it's a
00:24:31
pretty legit one when it comes to taking
00:24:34
your base fans for granted in the in the
00:24:36
search for casual fans and if there's
00:24:38
any sort of crisis and suddenly the
00:24:40
casuals go away, maybe you'll find out
00:24:41
the hardcores did too. You know, things
00:24:43
like that that you know, just kind of
00:24:45
warning signs to look out for. Um, I'm
00:24:47
always a very competitive, balanced
00:24:50
driven person. I like parody or more
00:24:52
than I get. Uh, which is crazy that I'm
00:24:54
a college football person. uh in
00:24:56
general, but you know, I I I took a you
00:24:59
know, I I I talked to somebody who who
00:25:01
talks a lot about Australian rules, who
00:25:02
writes about Australian rules football
00:25:04
because Australia does parody. Australia
00:25:06
is obsessed with parody. Uh so just kind
00:25:08
of I I tried to take from other sports
00:25:10
and and learn what we could learn um to
00:25:13
to you know, see what I found. That's
00:25:16
that's a really intriguing bill just uh
00:25:18
just because uh I think you know parody
00:25:20
is something that I think we agree all
00:25:22
is a notion we want for every sport but
00:25:25
I feel like it's a very hard thing to
00:25:27
compare kind of across sports you know
00:25:29
you know what what what parody in
00:25:32
American football would mean compared to
00:25:33
parody in hockey or baseball or or you
00:25:36
know again at the individual player
00:25:37
level tennis we were talking about
00:25:39
earlier. I don't know if you can kind of
00:25:41
talk about like how hard it is to bridge
00:25:43
sports like like how how how much can
00:25:45
you learn from one sport struggle with
00:25:47
par or or or you know I guess
00:25:48
implementation or attempts at par versus
00:25:51
you know for for another sport.
00:25:53
>> Yeah. In Australia this isn't
00:25:54
necessarily Australian rules football
00:25:56
but um with rugby and some of the lower
00:25:58
level Aussie rules football they they
00:26:00
basically they don't have a salary cap.
00:26:01
They have a player player rating system,
00:26:04
I think is what it's called, or player
00:26:05
point system where basically like the
00:26:07
quality of the player costs more. Like
00:26:10
if you want a a former Australian rules
00:26:13
a highlevel pro for your like midlevel
00:26:16
like semi-pro Australian rules football
00:26:18
team, he's going to cost a lot of
00:26:20
points. You can pay him whatever you
00:26:21
want, but you're not going to be able to
00:26:22
to you get that many other good players
00:26:25
because they they they're obsessed with
00:26:26
roster balance. And so it was just kind
00:26:29
of a fun exercise. I mean, I think we
00:26:30
know in the short term where things are
00:26:32
headed and they're not play, you know,
00:26:33
even though we have recruiting rankings
00:26:35
and we could try to assign a a you know,
00:26:38
you can only assign so many fivestar
00:26:39
guys limit. If we wanted to do that, I'm
00:26:41
I'm good with it. I doubt it happens.
00:26:43
But at some point, you know, out when
00:26:46
the when the SEC and Big 10 are kind of
00:26:48
done with their blood lust here in the
00:26:49
short term, we might find that there are
00:26:52
some problems emerging and we need to
00:26:53
have some other ideas. So, that was kind
00:26:55
of the goal here. Bill, since we're
00:26:57
obviously a statistics show as well, I
00:26:59
thought I'd I'll throw in some
00:27:00
statistics jargon, but to ask you a
00:27:01
substantive college football question.
00:27:03
Um, if you look at the last 15, 20
00:27:06
years, it appears that there's been,
00:27:07
I'll call it, state dependence or runs
00:27:10
by conference in the national title.
00:27:12
Like we looked at well, the SEC will
00:27:14
never be beat. LSU, Bama, Georgia,
00:27:17
Georgia. Well, the last two have been
00:27:19
won by Michigan and Ohio State.
00:27:20
>> Yeah. So, do you see a possib first of
00:27:23
all, do you believe in conference level
00:27:28
strength and state dependence where
00:27:30
conferences kind of go on runs or not
00:27:34
really? And B, if the answer to the
00:27:36
first one is yes, do you think we're in
00:27:37
a Big 10 run right now and we might see
00:27:40
that for the next couple years?
00:27:42
>> No, I really don't. I mean, I think I
00:27:44
what I told SEC people when SEC teams
00:27:47
will win a lot of titles is the same
00:27:48
thing I'm telling Big 10 people now.
00:27:49
like the best conference is the best
00:27:51
conference. We have power ratings. We
00:27:53
have a lot of ways to evaluate who has
00:27:54
the best conference, but who won the
00:27:56
last game of the season probably isn't
00:27:58
the best way to do that. Uh, you know,
00:28:00
Alabama won a lot of those national
00:28:02
titles. That didn't have anything to do
00:28:03
with Vanderbilt. Like the SEC, they can
00:28:06
they can claim that they, you know,
00:28:07
they're part of the best conference or
00:28:09
whatever because Alabama won all those
00:28:11
titles. That's not really a great a
00:28:13
great thing. But I do think, you know,
00:28:15
right now, like in on a year-to-year
00:28:17
basis, the SEC grades out comfortably
00:28:20
the best on average, just in terms of
00:28:22
average SP plus rating or whatever. Um,
00:28:25
but, you know, heading into this season,
00:28:27
especially, that doesn't, you know, the
00:28:29
SEC might be the best overall because it
00:28:30
doesn't have as many terrible teams.
00:28:32
That doesn't really mean that Ohio State
00:28:34
and Penn State don't have a really good
00:28:35
chance of winning the national title
00:28:36
this year. It just means they're going
00:28:38
to have a lot of team light heavyweight
00:28:39
and heavyweight teams with a decent
00:28:40
chance. Well, also to your point, Bill,
00:28:42
just to follow up one last thing, the
00:28:43
new college football playoff system will
00:28:46
also help that because now one loss by
00:28:49
an Ohio State or Penn State, well,
00:28:51
you're still in the playoffs. You you
00:28:52
know the they'll still have an
00:28:54
opportunity to win it,
00:28:55
>> right? And and also, you know, it it's a
00:28:58
genuine tournament. The 14 playoff was
00:29:00
great. It was an improvement in my eyes,
00:29:02
but it still wasn't really it was one
00:29:03
extra game. It wasn't like a complete
00:29:05
change. Now, we have a tournament at the
00:29:07
end of the season. And tournaments have
00:29:08
a lot of randomness that you can't say
00:29:10
if you know the eight seed makes a run
00:29:12
at some point. Um, you know, whoever
00:29:15
that might be. Let's say LSU makes a run
00:29:18
and and and wins the title kind of
00:29:19
unexpectedly. Well, actually Ohio State,
00:29:21
what were they? They were pretty close
00:29:22
to the eight seed last year. They were
00:29:24
the eight seed last year. Y um even
00:29:26
though they clearly weren't the eighth
00:29:27
best team, but yeah, you have a team
00:29:29
that loses three games but sneaks in,
00:29:31
makes a run, that doesn't mean their
00:29:32
conference was best. It just means they
00:29:33
got hot at the right time. out.
00:29:35
>> All right, guys. Let's let's continue
00:29:37
down this line and talk about this
00:29:38
season and and we got a little bit of a
00:29:40
late start. So, why don't we do do this?
00:29:43
>> I don't know if I'm capable of short
00:29:44
answers, but let's go. Let's try.
00:29:45
>> And um
00:29:47
well, we're going to challenge you,
00:29:48
Bill. I don't know if my colleagues are
00:29:50
capable of short kibbitzing, but we're
00:29:51
going to ask them to be brief kibitzers
00:29:53
as well. Um and this is going to give us
00:29:55
a chance to talk about a lot of teams
00:29:56
and conferences, but I've got eight I've
00:29:58
got eight, just so you know, eight
00:30:00
lightning round questions for you. And
00:30:02
let's let's try to keep it concise, but
00:30:04
if we need to dive, we can dive. Number
00:30:06
one, yesterday AP poll was released.
00:30:09
Texas is number one. First time in the
00:30:10
history of the poll, which is shocking
00:30:12
to most people. 75 years, Texas never
00:30:14
been number one before. Number two is
00:30:16
PSU, but Penn State only like five votes
00:30:18
behind or not even vote full votes. I
00:30:20
mean, it was really neck and neck. If
00:30:22
you had to bet on one of those two
00:30:23
teams, winning the national
00:30:24
championship, Texas or Penn State,
00:30:26
>> I think Penn State just because a they
00:30:27
have an easier schedule and they're more
00:30:29
likely to get there and b they have more
00:30:31
known quantities. Texas like if if Arch
00:30:34
Manning is the best player in the
00:30:34
country, Texas is number one. That
00:30:36
that's fine. Like I don't really dispute
00:30:37
that. But it kind of takes an assumption
00:30:40
that Texas is the that that Arch is the
00:30:42
best player in the country. If Texas is
00:30:43
going to be number one, they have two
00:30:45
brand new lines. They have a receiving
00:30:47
core I don't really trust. I'm not sure
00:30:48
if Texas's coaches do either. Like they
00:30:50
got a lot of questions. And if Arch is
00:30:52
anything less than amazing, that that's
00:30:54
there there are some issues there. This
00:30:56
this is not a short answer obviously. Um
00:30:59
but just there is a point that I've I've
00:31:01
been making a lot that I really find
00:31:02
interesting. We have two kind of known
00:31:04
birds in hand here with Penn State and
00:31:06
Clemson and then we have a whole bunch
00:31:08
of teams that probably have more upside
00:31:10
and a whole bunch of unknowns and that
00:31:12
makes it a really really interesting
00:31:13
year to talk about.
00:31:14
>> Well, interesting you bring that up
00:31:16
because another pairing I want to give
00:31:17
you national championship chances. Who
00:31:19
do you got? Clemson or Alabama?
00:31:23
>> Alabama. I just don't I don't trust
00:31:26
Clemson as a top five team. We haven't
00:31:28
This has been my point all all off
00:31:31
season. Like they've a their last four
00:31:33
years they've averaged like an 18.5
00:31:35
ranking in SP plus. Like they have the
00:31:37
most returning production in the
00:31:39
country. This is going to be their best
00:31:40
team in five years. I just don't trust
00:31:42
that that's a top five team. It might
00:31:44
only be like a top 10 team.
00:31:46
>> Wow.
00:31:48
Wow. Okay. And and Alabama, you clearly
00:31:50
think there's some upside there. That's
00:31:51
kind of a sneaky strong team this year,
00:31:53
right?
00:31:54
>> Yeah. Great defense last year even uh
00:31:56
aside from basically like 45 minutes
00:31:58
against Georgia and Vanderbilt and like
00:32:01
the the quarterback marriage just wasn't
00:32:03
a good one. Never was. Defense has
00:32:04
figured it out late last season. I don't
00:32:06
know if Tai if Tai Simpson is good, not
00:32:08
even like Heisman, just good. That's a
00:32:10
really really really good football team.
00:32:12
>> But Bill, let me just ask you quickly
00:32:13
about just to follow up Kate's question.
00:32:16
What what do you what concerns you about
00:32:18
Clemson that you know they're I'm just
00:32:20
look staring at it right now. They're
00:32:21
number four in the AP. They're number
00:32:23
six in the Clemson in the coaches poll.
00:32:25
And you've just commented that you're
00:32:27
not sure they're even really top 10.
00:32:29
What do you see that might not be
00:32:30
included in these votes or these models,
00:32:33
etc.?
00:32:33
>> Well, recent history more than anything,
00:32:35
they've been, you know, eight, they
00:32:37
haven't been a top 15 team in S+ since
00:32:40
2020. Um, so they're projected to
00:32:43
improve a lot because of the returning
00:32:44
production, but that just that only gets
00:32:46
you so high. They haven't had an elite
00:32:48
offense in years. They haven't had an
00:32:49
elite defense in years. And we're just
00:32:51
kind of to project or to to vote for
00:32:53
them in the top five means you just kind
00:32:55
of assume all these things are going to
00:32:57
come together at once. And that's that
00:32:58
can happen. And and again, like I'm not
00:33:00
rooting against it by any means. I think
00:33:02
it'd be pretty interesting if they did
00:33:04
rise back. I I just don't I don't trust
00:33:06
it. I don't I don't see it yet.
00:33:08
>> All right. So, I've got eight of these
00:33:10
lightning round questions. The first
00:33:11
four are these head-to-head matchups.
00:33:13
Who's best for the national
00:33:14
championship? We're on number three. And
00:33:15
now I'm going to go to two tried andrue.
00:33:18
No question they're capable. Who do you
00:33:21
have between Ohio State and Georgia?
00:33:25
Ohio State.
00:33:26
>> Who's more likely to win the national
00:33:28
championship? Ohio State. All right. Why
00:33:29
is that?
00:33:31
>> Well, they have the two best players in
00:33:32
college football. That's a good place to
00:33:34
start. Um there's a lot of uncertainty
00:33:36
there. Like two new coordinators, new a
00:33:38
very young quarterback. Like I'm I don't
00:33:40
You know, I don't think they're they're
00:33:42
going to be number one in SP plus
00:33:44
spoiler, but I don't love that. I don't
00:33:46
think they're far and away number one by
00:33:48
any means, but they just have the most
00:33:49
upside. Georgia's really funny this
00:33:51
year. I think they always have, speaking
00:33:53
of ceilings and floors, they always have
00:33:55
a ridiculously high floor. They only
00:33:56
lose to awesome teams. And also, what
00:33:59
are they elite at this year? We don't
00:34:01
know that they're elite at anything this
00:34:02
year. Their quarterbacks knew their
00:34:03
skill core wasn't good enough last year.
00:34:05
Their offensive line wasn't good enough.
00:34:07
the defensive line came and went and
00:34:08
then lost everybody. Um, I know people
00:34:11
love Kristen Miller, defensive tackle.
00:34:13
Like, there's obviously upside there. We
00:34:15
just haven't seen any of it. Like, we
00:34:17
don't know that they're going to be
00:34:18
elite in anything. So, give me the team
00:34:19
that I know has at least a couple of
00:34:20
really, really, really good, good
00:34:22
pieces.
00:34:23
>> Okay. Two I wanted to hear you talk
00:34:24
about, so I'll just put them against
00:34:25
each other. Oregon and Notre Dame.
00:34:27
Oregon and Notre Dame.
00:34:28
>> I guess Notre Dame. Oregon lost a lot. I
00:34:31
didn't realize until I wrote the Big 10
00:34:33
preview just how much Oregon lost from
00:34:35
last season. That offense is brand new.
00:34:37
Um, Dante Moore is the likely
00:34:40
quarterback and his upside. We don't,
00:34:42
all we know is he kind of bombed at UCLA
00:34:44
two years ago as a true freshman, which
00:34:46
happens, but I went back and read his
00:34:48
scouting reports from when he was
00:34:50
recruiting. He was a fivestar recruit
00:34:52
and all the all the scouting reports
00:34:53
were basically like doesn't make
00:34:55
mistakes, makes the the right decisions.
00:34:57
It doesn't really say anything about his
00:34:58
physical upside. And I mean, I guess if
00:35:02
you're succeeding Dylan Gabriel, then
00:35:04
maybe that's that's right. You know,
00:35:05
Gabriel didn't have a lot of physical
00:35:06
upside, but just was really good
00:35:08
quarterback. So, maybe that works out.
00:35:10
Okay. But I I had a lot more questions
00:35:11
about Oregon than I realized. Um, and
00:35:13
Notre Dame, obviously, they have a new
00:35:15
quarterback, too. So, some of these new
00:35:17
quarterbacks are kind of bomb or or not,
00:35:19
you know, at least not be superstars,
00:35:21
but I like a lot of what Notre Dame
00:35:23
returns otherwise.
00:35:24
>> Okay, let's go to the final four
00:35:26
lightning round questions. Away from the
00:35:28
head-to-heads. Will Texas Tech make the
00:35:30
Big 12 title game?
00:35:32
>> Well, I'm going to say no just because
00:35:34
uh it's like 16 teams and they all have
00:35:36
exactly the same chance in that stupid
00:35:37
conference. It's my favorite conference
00:35:39
by far because just flip the standings
00:35:41
from year to year. They are going to be
00:35:43
good though. Uh they the biggest issue
00:35:46
with them is, you know, I think they're
00:35:47
projected to improve as much as just
00:35:49
about anybody in SP plus, but they
00:35:50
started in the 40s uh because they were
00:35:53
super lucky last season. They should
00:35:54
have probably won as many games they
00:35:56
didn't. They didn't win a ton of games.
00:35:57
So, um, they got a lot to approve and I
00:36:00
don't really trust there are a lot of
00:36:01
good quarterbacks in that conference and
00:36:03
Baron Morton. I don't trust him as much
00:36:05
as I trust some others. So, I'm going to
00:36:07
I was going to say no to anybody you
00:36:08
said in the Big 12, but I I'm definitely
00:36:10
going to say no to Texas Tech.
00:36:12
>> Okay. So, you're a little short. They
00:36:14
acquired more talent than anybody and
00:36:16
they they paid as much as we've seen
00:36:18
anybody pay. What's your position in
00:36:19
general on whether you can build teams
00:36:22
that way? Do do it's like are to what
00:36:25
extent is the sum the whole greater than
00:36:27
the sum of the parts or less than the
00:36:29
sum of the parts? Is it different from
00:36:30
the sum of the parts?
00:36:31
>> Well, I tend to root for usurpers. So,
00:36:33
I'm not you know, even though I don't
00:36:34
like the impact money plays in a lot of
00:36:36
ways, it's there's a lot of old money in
00:36:38
college football that has driven
00:36:39
decisions and uh for a very long time.
00:36:42
So, anybody trying to upend that, I'm
00:36:43
not going to really complain. I do think
00:36:45
it'll be I think it would be very
00:36:47
interesting to see how certain powerful
00:36:49
entities responded if Texas Tech really
00:36:52
did basically buy a bunch of five stars
00:36:54
and suddenly have an elite team and um
00:36:57
you know beat a couple of of blue blood
00:36:59
schools. I think that'd be probably in
00:37:01
the end pretty good for the sport, but I
00:37:03
don't it'd be interesting. I I don't
00:37:04
think it'll happen, but it'd be
00:37:05
interesting.
00:37:06
>> Right. Bill, maybe to tie our first
00:37:08
conversation with you about tennis to
00:37:09
this. Is the current college football
00:37:12
season to you more like men's tennis or
00:37:14
women's tennis? Do we have basically two
00:37:17
teams that can win it or do you see 10
00:37:19
to 12 teams? Here's the thing. I we I'll
00:37:22
ask you in a different way, but the same
00:37:23
question. Bill Connley gets to pick X
00:37:26
teams. I get the rest of the teams and
00:37:29
you're going to make it a fair bet. How
00:37:31
many teams is Bill Connley picking?
00:37:32
>> Well, that's historically you're looking
00:37:34
at like three or four. Um, you know, we
00:37:36
had the Alabama run, we had the Georgia
00:37:38
run, uh, right after the Alabama run,
00:37:41
like didn't take much. And I think there
00:37:43
it's unquestionable that at the top of
00:37:45
the sport right now, the talent's been a
00:37:47
little more spread out. Like, I see
00:37:49
probably at least I think the top six or
00:37:51
seven are in a tier by themselves,
00:37:54
not six or seven. That's already six or
00:37:56
seven that I can't really decide
00:37:57
between. And all of them have pretty big
00:37:59
question marks either in terms of
00:38:01
ceiling or floor. Like I realized, you
00:38:03
know, somebody asked me, you know, is
00:38:04
Texas really number one? Are they
00:38:06
overrated? And I realized I was going to
00:38:07
say whoever would was number one was
00:38:08
overrated because it feels like we have
00:38:10
a bunch of threes and fours. And that's
00:38:12
great. I think that's, you know, that
00:38:14
makes for a really really fun title
00:38:16
race. I when I talk about competitive
00:38:17
balance that I'm worried about, it's the
00:38:19
it's the power conferences are really
00:38:21
the two conferences trying to distance
00:38:23
themselves from everybody else. But
00:38:25
there's no question that, you know, if
00:38:26
we have a 12 team tournament at the end
00:38:28
of this, like right now, I I would say I
00:38:30
would need at least like six to feel
00:38:32
comfortable that I have the winner.
00:38:33
>> Let me ask you a related question to
00:38:34
that. Do you think there's enough data
00:38:37
>> that when we have you on at the end of
00:38:39
the season, so let's say the 12 team
00:38:40
bracket is now set?
00:38:41
>> Yeah.
00:38:42
>> And I say to you, Bill,
00:38:44
>> how many teams can win this? Do you
00:38:46
think the data from the regular season
00:38:48
will differentiate them enough because
00:38:50
of the number of really high leverage
00:38:52
games each team plays? Or are we going
00:38:54
to say, Bill's going to say, didn't I I
00:38:56
tell you guys on August the 12th that
00:38:58
there's still a half a dozen teams that
00:38:59
can really win this thing?
00:39:00
>> Well, I think wherever we draw that
00:39:02
line, six teams, seven, eight teams,
00:39:03
whatever, half of them are going to turn
00:39:05
out to have awesome quarterbacks. So, I
00:39:07
do think at the end of the season, we'll
00:39:08
know we'll know which ones are awesome
00:39:10
and that'll make uh the decision a
00:39:12
little bit easier. That's what has made
00:39:14
talking about this uh season pretty fun
00:39:17
is that so many of them have new
00:39:18
quarterbacks and they're inevitably high
00:39:20
upside guys. But number one, most of
00:39:23
them run around too much and get hit a
00:39:25
lot and some of them aren't that's not
00:39:26
going to work out very well. So yeah, by
00:39:28
the end of the year we're going to know
00:39:29
who the elite quarterbacks are and
00:39:30
that'll make the decision a little
00:39:31
easier, I think.
00:39:33
>> But I do think that the short answer to
00:39:34
Eric's question is that this is the most
00:39:36
women's tennisish college football
00:39:38
seasons we've had in a long time. in a
00:39:40
real long time. And well, I think it's
00:39:44
intriguing to think about your second
00:39:45
question to wonder to what extent will
00:39:47
it still feel that way at the end of the
00:39:48
year, but I bet it does. My money says
00:39:50
that it will. Okay, three final
00:39:52
questions. First two are coaches. Who
00:39:54
has a better chance of getting their
00:39:55
program back to the glory days, Lincoln
00:39:58
Riley or Brent Venable? Um,
00:40:02
well, neither is probably the right
00:40:03
answer, but uh I I I guess venables if
00:40:06
only because
00:40:08
he he did get the defense back on track
00:40:10
last year and this whole gambit where
00:40:12
you just kind of transplant uh you know,
00:40:14
in this case bringing in Washington
00:40:16
State's offensive coordinator and
00:40:17
quarterback, assuming nothing becomes of
00:40:19
this gambling thing that just popped up
00:40:20
about John Matier, which we'll see
00:40:22
that's in the early stages. Um, you
00:40:25
know, maybe you it wouldn't be hard to
00:40:28
envision that offense clicking and then
00:40:29
suddenly having a top 10 or 15 team
00:40:31
again. Lick Riley is really funny. I in
00:40:33
my Big 10 preview I wrote like if you
00:40:35
just kind of look at what he did, he
00:40:36
registered a ton of guys last year. He
00:40:38
didn't make a panic buy with a
00:40:40
quarterback in the portal this year and
00:40:42
and he's signing a great recruiting
00:40:43
class for next year or you know not
00:40:45
signing but he has a bunch of really
00:40:47
good commitments. kind of feels like
00:40:48
he's building for 2026. I don't know if
00:40:51
the marriage there is going to
00:40:54
be healthy enough in 2026 for him to
00:40:57
still, you know, it wouldn't surprise me
00:40:59
if he kind of left be via kind of mutual
00:41:02
consent after this year if it doesn't if
00:41:03
it's another seven and six years. So,
00:41:06
yeah, I I right now I trust Venibles
00:41:07
more, but I don't really trust either
00:41:09
one.
00:41:11
>> All right, reasonable second coaching
00:41:14
question. Seventh out of the eight
00:41:15
lightning round questions. Will Brian
00:41:17
Kelly ever win a national championship
00:41:19
at LSU?
00:41:19
>> Uh, I mean, sure, possibly, but probably
00:41:22
not. No. Um, it really, every year
00:41:25
though, we talk, it's so easy to talk
00:41:27
yourself into LSU because inevitably
00:41:28
they had a good offense last year and
00:41:30
this year they're going to, you know,
00:41:31
Nusmeer's a a solid a very solid
00:41:33
quarterback. They're going to have good
00:41:35
receivers and all that. Uh, and the
00:41:36
defense always has athletes. He, you
00:41:38
know, he has two dynamic linebackers,
00:41:41
both coming off big injuries, so we'll
00:41:43
see. And then he went out and got like
00:41:44
every defensive end of the portal. So,
00:41:47
um,
00:41:48
it could click it. You know, it's
00:41:50
they're not that far away, but at this
00:41:52
point, it's kind of up to him to prove
00:41:53
it. He's he's been given the benefit of
00:41:55
the doubt a lot. I think
00:41:57
>> I'm going to I'm going to make it a
00:41:58
little bit harder and ask what
00:41:59
probability because he'll run out of
00:42:00
time at some point. LSU is not known for
00:42:02
patience with their head coaches. And as
00:42:04
Feldman is always saying, the last three
00:42:06
coaches there won national
00:42:07
championships. So, what probability?
00:42:09
>> Not great because even if they peak, you
00:42:10
still have to deal with Ohio State. you
00:42:12
still have to deal with uh well deal
00:42:15
with you have to beat like three out of
00:42:17
Ohio State, a couple whichever elite SEC
00:42:20
teams and just a whole bunch like you're
00:42:22
going to have to win three really hard
00:42:24
games at the end of the year and I just
00:42:26
don't think we're going to say we'll say
00:42:28
12%.
00:42:32
>> Okay. Okay. Okay. So, I think I know how
00:42:35
you're gonna answer this last question
00:42:36
because you've been giving this
00:42:37
statistically wise answer to all these
00:42:39
questions. You're forced to bet against
00:42:41
the line on Texas Ohio State week one.
00:42:44
The line is two and a half. Ohio State
00:42:46
by two and a half.
00:42:47
>> I'm fascinated by this game. I I I'm I
00:42:50
can't get a read on either team. Um but
00:42:53
I I think I think SP Plus is going to
00:42:55
say what uh Ohio State by like five or
00:42:59
so. And I think they have like a two or
00:43:02
three point advantage in that home field
00:43:04
as well. Um, I guess I lean in that
00:43:07
direction, but I'm I'm not I'm not
00:43:09
betting on this game. Like I I really I
00:43:11
love that Ohio State and Texas are
00:43:13
playing and I love that Clemson and LSU
00:43:14
are playing in first week because those
00:43:16
are four teams that I just need to see
00:43:18
before I I trust any impression I have.
00:43:20
>> Do you think there is a learnable
00:43:22
pattern in data, Bill, from I don't even
00:43:24
know if this is true. If Ryan Day or
00:43:26
Steve Sarkeesian is like, let's imagine
00:43:29
I told you their records over the last
00:43:30
15 years. Is one of them a slow starting
00:43:33
team? like do you believe in
00:43:34
non-stationerity during the season and
00:43:36
is one of them predictable in some way
00:43:39
that might move the odds a little bit?
00:43:41
>> Yeah, it's it's so hard with you know
00:43:43
because the seasons are short and
00:43:45
context is heavy and like Ohio State was
00:43:47
terrible at the end of 2023 but part of
00:43:49
that was because the stakes you know
00:43:51
they they missed the playoff and then
00:43:53
their quarterback didn't play against
00:43:54
Missouri in the Cotton Bowl and blah
00:43:56
blah blah. Like it's really hard to
00:44:00
Brian Kelly always slow started at LSU.
00:44:02
Is that really is there a cause to that
00:44:03
or is that just complete randomness
00:44:05
because he did it like three times? I I
00:44:07
So I never I never get very far. There
00:44:09
might be a signal somewhere in there,
00:44:11
but I've never found it. I've never
00:44:13
>> Of those four teams you named, the least
00:44:16
proven quarterback is Ohio State. And
00:44:18
that's a that's a red shirt freshman.
00:44:20
And you'd expect I mean Arch is just a
00:44:22
red shirt sophomore, right? But
00:44:24
>> Nus Byer and Kubnik, they're not going
00:44:27
to change that much over the course of
00:44:28
the season. Manning will change some.
00:44:29
And then Julian Sam probably going to
00:44:31
change a fair bit over the course of the
00:44:32
season. Longhorns are happy to catch
00:44:34
Ohio State week one for exactly that.
00:44:37
>> Yeah. And San was almost as highly
00:44:39
touted as Arch. Um really really highly
00:44:42
touted quarterback, but yeah, we just
00:44:44
haven't seen anything from him. And
00:44:46
Arch, we got this Well, first of all,
00:44:47
Arch came out and and had like the best
00:44:49
uh small sample performance of all time
00:44:52
against UTSA last year with like two
00:44:54
long touchdown passes and a long
00:44:55
touchdown run and was unbelievable. and
00:44:58
then got baited into mistakes by
00:44:59
Louisiana Monroe the next week. So, you
00:45:02
know, I it's I get that people are kind
00:45:06
of assuming that he's gonna carry them
00:45:08
and be number one. And it wouldn't
00:45:09
surprise me at all if it happened, but
00:45:11
he bars really high. I I went back and
00:45:13
looked. I'm going to either write about
00:45:15
this or just stick it in my week one
00:45:16
preview, but the only person who's ever
00:45:18
been a betting favorite for the Heisman
00:45:20
Trophy with a smaller resume than Arch
00:45:23
Manning was Tua after he threw the
00:45:25
touchdown pass to win the national title
00:45:27
the year before. Um, and that's it. Like
00:45:29
that's the only he has 900 career
00:45:31
passing yards and he's the Heisman
00:45:32
favorite. It's it's pretty wild and it's
00:45:34
kind of unfounded territory here.
00:45:36
>> Well, it's going to be fun. We'll learn
00:45:37
a lot soon. All right. Give us something
00:45:39
that you think the consensus that's it
00:45:41
for the lightning round. not not so
00:45:43
lightning round. What is one thing you
00:45:44
think consensus
00:45:46
is getting wrong about college football
00:45:48
in 2025
00:45:50
>> this season this season? Where's Where
00:45:52
are you contrarian, Bill?
00:45:54
>> Well, I mean I'm obviously a Clemson
00:45:56
contrarian. Um like I do think that's
00:45:59
something and I I Clemson fans have been
00:46:01
on me all off seasonason about it. Like
00:46:03
I don't I I think you guys are the ACC
00:46:05
favorite. I think you're going to be
00:46:06
good. I just don't understand how and
00:46:08
and it was weird too. We used to have
00:46:10
these ball bumps where like Gino Smith
00:46:11
would throw for 500 yards in the in the
00:46:13
Orange Bowl and then they'd be like a
00:46:14
top five team the next year because of
00:46:16
it. Um Kate Clubick in like they were a
00:46:20
two touchdown underdog against Texas in
00:46:22
the in the college football playoff last
00:46:25
year. They lost by two touchdowns, but
00:46:27
he completed like three long passes in
00:46:29
the process. They're like, "Oh, that's
00:46:30
it. That's it. That's they're going to
00:46:31
have a lead offense again next year."
00:46:33
And they might.
00:46:34
>> But Clemson doesn't It's such a
00:46:37
conservative offense. I need to see him
00:46:39
if he throws downfield twice in the
00:46:41
first quarter against LSU. I I'm much
00:46:45
closer to being in. I need to see that
00:46:47
that Davos is actually going to let him
00:46:50
>> wing the ball around like he had to
00:46:51
because they were trailing against Texas
00:46:53
as well. So, they had to throw the ball
00:46:55
downfield.
00:46:56
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
00:46:58
Okay. But I got to ask you one question.
00:47:00
Clubnick or Nesus? If you had to pick
00:47:02
take one, who would you want as your QV?
00:47:06
>> I'm going clubnick. I I I didn't see it.
00:47:08
I didn't think of it either.
00:47:09
>> He might be the better quarterback. I
00:47:10
like LSU's offensive structure more like
00:47:13
that that will produce big plays and I
00:47:15
don't trust the Clemson. Well, but I
00:47:16
guess I guess club
00:47:17
>> of course. Yeah. Yeah.
00:47:19
>> All right. Listen, we got to let you go.
00:47:20
That's a long run with you and um we'll
00:47:23
talk with you later in the season, but
00:47:25
thanks for the time, Bill. Um wish you
00:47:26
the best getting the season off. You
00:47:28
said at the top of the show that you
00:47:30
only in the last day or two felt ready
00:47:32
for it, so congrats on that and enjoy
00:47:34
the last two and a half weeks as we run
00:47:35
into this thing. and we'll talk with you
00:47:37
down the road.
00:47:39
Bill Connley, creator of SP Plus, writer
00:47:42
at ESPN, uh originally with the Football
00:47:45
Outsiders, and author of a new book.
00:47:46
He's got other books, and they're
00:47:48
worthy, but there's a brand new one
00:47:49
coming out, Forward Progress. Pre-order
00:47:52
now. Welcome back to Wharton Moneyball.
00:47:54
Welcome to the second half of this
00:47:55
week's show. The first half was more
00:47:58
than a half, so the second half's going
00:47:59
to be a little bit less of one, but it's
00:48:02
uh our college football preview show of
00:48:04
sorts with some tennis thrown in for uh
00:48:08
for good measure. And um we've got other
00:48:10
sports to talk about now. We they are
00:48:12
going on. It's not all eclipsed by
00:48:14
football. And we'll have a chance to
00:48:16
talk more about football over the next
00:48:17
couple of weeks. We've got I think
00:48:18
Steven Godfrey coming in. Do more
00:48:20
college football next week. We'll do a
00:48:22
pro football preview with Brian Burke in
00:48:24
a couple of weeks. So, it's on our mind
00:48:26
and now it's um in increasingly on our
00:48:28
screens. We'll come back to it. In the
00:48:30
meantime, gentlemen, uh we got some
00:48:34
baseball. Before we get baseball, golf
00:48:36
is winding up their season. They're
00:48:38
trying to figure out how to make it more
00:48:39
dramatic. They've got three tournaments
00:48:41
here at the end. They whittle the field
00:48:42
from se top 75 play the first
00:48:44
tournament, then the top 50, then
00:48:45
finally the top 30. And we had a
00:48:49
dramatic fun Justin Rose victory in the
00:48:52
first of these three tournaments. What?
00:48:54
How old? 43 43 years old.
00:48:56
>> I think he's 45. I know he's 44 or 45.
00:48:59
>> All right.
00:48:59
>> And yeah, I mean,
00:49:00
>> gota gota pull for that guy always.
00:49:03
>> Yeah. I mean, he's been playing
00:49:04
extremely well lately and um you know, I
00:49:08
think that's the nice thing about golf.
00:49:10
Will Justin Rose compete and be at the
00:49:12
top every week? No. But guys can get
00:49:15
locked in at golf for short periods of
00:49:17
time and he looks incredibly fit. He's,
00:49:20
you know, it's usually the putter that
00:49:21
lets you down at that age. the guy's
00:49:23
putting well and um you know this is a
00:49:27
big tournament to win. You know there's
00:49:29
well you guys may remember
00:49:31
the the year that Tiger
00:49:34
won the last tournament won the FedEx
00:49:36
playoffs actually Justin Rose won the
00:49:39
overall playoffs but Tiger won the last
00:49:42
event of the season which was the top 30
00:49:45
championship that Kade talks about. So
00:49:46
Justin Rose first of all you know he's
00:49:49
going to play well at the RDER Cup. you
00:49:51
know that for a fact. So, he's clearly
00:49:54
geared up for the end of the season. I
00:49:56
thought it was an exciting win. I I
00:49:57
thought the other thing that was
00:49:58
interesting is, you know, all of a
00:50:00
sudden this guy that won the US Open,
00:50:01
who I had never really heard of, was it
00:50:03
JJ Spawn or whatever,
00:50:05
>> he was the one that he beat in the
00:50:06
playoff, like this guy's coming in top
00:50:09
five, top 10, like at every tournament
00:50:11
right now. And this backs to what Kate
00:50:13
has said, the guy's been locked in for
00:50:15
like 10 weeks now. And this can make a
00:50:18
career. I'm not saying he's in the Hall
00:50:20
of Fame yet, but the guy's on tour now
00:50:22
for the next 10 years. And you know,
00:50:25
he's probably won, I don't know, 8 to10
00:50:27
million dollars in the last 10 weeks.
00:50:30
And uh it's just and he's now on the
00:50:32
he's clinched the Ryder Cup spot. If I
00:50:34
had told you 10 weeks ago, JJ Spawn is
00:50:37
on the US RDER Cup team. You're like,
00:50:38
who?
00:50:39
>> Yeah,
00:50:40
>> he's on the Ryder Cup team.
00:50:41
>> Well, let's hope his his regime shift
00:50:43
that he's been riding for the last
00:50:45
couple of months will continue. And the
00:50:46
other thing to mention also just quickly
00:50:48
again,
00:50:49
>> you know, Tommy Fleetwood
00:50:53
second again, and we talked about this a
00:50:56
couple weeks ago. I think this is now I
00:50:58
don't know if it's nine or 10 second
00:50:59
place finishes. This guy's never won on
00:51:02
the US tour. And we're getting to a
00:51:05
point where, you know, there is some,
00:51:08
you have to call it a carryover effect
00:51:11
or something that even if he's in that
00:51:14
final group, his odds are much worse
00:51:17
than one over n where n is the number of
00:51:19
players. It just has to be psychological
00:51:21
at this point. It has to be.
00:51:22
>> It would it would be realistic. It'd be
00:51:24
understandable if it is even. By the
00:51:27
way, u our friend Rufus Peabody who does
00:51:29
a lot of golf an analytics and betting
00:51:32
finds that there is a measurable
00:51:35
um uh pressure effect that players are
00:51:39
play worse in the league and in general
00:51:41
like the very best of them don't but
00:51:43
like that that's the exception.
00:51:45
Everybody else generally plays worse
00:51:46
when they're in the lead. Um which is an
00:51:49
interesting observation.
00:51:50
>> And also just one last golf thing um our
00:51:52
boy Texas Mr. Texas. Scotty Sheffller
00:51:56
has not been worse than eighth place in
00:51:59
12 straight tournaments.
00:52:00
>> I mean, we talk about volatility.
00:52:03
>> We talk about volatility in golf and
00:52:04
when you see a guy who seems immune to
00:52:06
it is and immune to it at the top, you
00:52:08
know, it's high mean and low volatility,
00:52:10
it's just really remarkable. Okay, we've
00:52:12
only got a few minutes and let me put it
00:52:13
to you this way. I've been away from the
00:52:15
show for a couple weeks. I've been away
00:52:17
from civilization for a couple of weeks.
00:52:19
I may not have paid as much attention to
00:52:21
baseball as I should. If I need to know
00:52:22
just a few things about what's going on
00:52:23
in baseball right now, what do you think
00:52:25
those few things are?
00:52:26
>> Well, I've got one kind of interesting
00:52:28
observation. I mean, one thing about
00:52:30
this season, offense is up. Offense is
00:52:32
up, I think, or or at least I have one
00:52:35
anecdotal evidence that the offense is
00:52:37
up. We have not yet had no hitter this
00:52:39
year.
00:52:40
>> And usually there's like four or we've
00:52:41
been averaging four or five of those a
00:52:43
season
00:52:45
>> for the last few years. So like there's
00:52:47
no Yeah, basically offense is up is one
00:52:50
thing you can kind of take in which you
00:52:52
know is exciting and we can you know
00:52:53
obviously talk about what's kind of
00:52:55
driving driving that particular uh uh
00:52:58
thing but uh and the other kind of part
00:53:00
of that is that we talked a few weeks
00:53:03
ago about the fact that there was five
00:53:05
players on pace for over 50 home runs
00:53:08
this year. They're still all five of
00:53:09
them on pace for over 50 home runs.
00:53:10
>> They're still on pace still on pace even
00:53:13
though of injuries. I guess he must be
00:53:15
just at 50.
00:53:15
>> Yes, Judge is still on p. I mean Jud
00:53:17
Judge Judge is falling off. He's
00:53:19
actually I think the one with the the
00:53:21
best p the shortest pace now. Actually
00:53:23
Suarez is but like Yeah. I mean actually
00:53:26
Judge and Sorber are still on pace for
00:53:27
the same number of home runs this year
00:53:29
even with Judge's recent entries.
00:53:31
>> And Raleigh is up to 45 or something.
00:53:33
>> 45 at least. As of I didn't see last
00:53:36
night but as of the night before he was
00:53:37
at 45. Okay.
00:53:38
>> Yeah. When I calculated out a couple
00:53:40
days ago he was on pace for like 62 home
00:53:42
runs.
00:53:42
>> Oh my goodness. Go rally. Here we go.
00:53:44
Okay. Give me What else do I need to
00:53:45
know? What else do I need to know?
00:53:47
>> To me, uh, you know, the team that has
00:53:49
surprised me the most is the Brewers. I
00:53:51
mean, I put it in the rundown. They're
00:53:53
the only team in baseball, only team
00:53:56
above 600. And it's not close. Their
00:53:59
record is 74 and 44.
00:54:04
And their preeason
00:54:07
was 83 and a half.
00:54:09
>> Their expectation preseason.
00:54:10
>> Expectation for the preseason. So I mean
00:54:14
that they're probably not it's not
00:54:17
guaranteed they're targeting a hundred
00:54:19
easy that's way above the expectation.
00:54:22
>> Okay. So so hold on give me give me
00:54:23
let's take it down a level like
00:54:24
Pythagorean let's go Bill James. What
00:54:26
would their are they outperforming or
00:54:29
they outwinning their run performance?
00:54:31
How does do we know anything about that?
00:54:33
>> I I hadn't looked at that. I had saw
00:54:35
that the Yankees are the team I did
00:54:37
compute the Yankees are the team who has
00:54:39
the worst performance on Pythagorean. In
00:54:42
other words, they have the number one
00:54:43
run differential, for example, in the
00:54:45
American League and the sixth best
00:54:47
record.
00:54:48
>> But going back to the Brewers, I think I
00:54:50
mean I I'm it is surprising probably
00:54:52
that they're the best team in baseball.
00:54:53
It is not that surprising that they're a
00:54:55
good team. I mean I I think I was
00:54:57
watching a Brewers game the other night
00:54:58
and they mentioned that Christian Yelch,
00:55:00
who's been played there for like eight
00:55:01
years now, they've gone to the playoffs
00:55:03
seven out of the eight years. He's been
00:55:05
there.
00:55:05
>> That's impressive.
00:55:06
>> That's pretty amazing for like any
00:55:08
baseball team. I mean, other than maybe
00:55:10
some of the ones that are kind of in
00:55:12
there, you know, usually. Uh that's
00:55:14
that's amazing for any kind of mid
00:55:16
payroll, like kind of mid-market
00:55:18
baseball team, I think. And so I think
00:55:20
it really to the extent that like
00:55:22
there's something systematic going on in
00:55:24
Milwaukee uh with their especially on
00:55:26
the pitching side. They seem to be able
00:55:28
to produce out of their development
00:55:30
system both relief and starters like
00:55:32
just ace after ace like you know like
00:55:36
elite closer after elite closer. So and
00:55:38
they've done it you know over over many
00:55:40
kind of runs now. So, I I I think you
00:55:42
know, whoever's in charge of pitching
00:55:44
there, um hopefully makes
00:55:46
>> something right. Shane, a couple weeks
00:55:48
ago or a few weeks ago now, we were
00:55:49
talking about the Brewers, and you were
00:55:51
like, "Yeah, yeah, I'm not going to buy
00:55:52
any Central Division team in either
00:55:54
league until I see something else." Is
00:55:57
it different for you now? Are they Are
00:55:58
they
00:55:58
>> No. Well, no. I I mean, that's one
00:56:01
thing. I mean, seven out of seven out of
00:56:03
the eight years that you seven out of
00:56:06
last eight years they've made the
00:56:07
playoffs, have they have you heard of
00:56:09
them in the World Series? Yeah. No.
00:56:11
>> By the way, Kate, I just
00:56:12
>> Have you heard of them even the Did they
00:56:13
make the conference? I I mean, they're
00:56:15
kind of seven out of the eight. They're
00:56:16
always in the playoffs, but they've been
00:56:18
kind of pretty consistently one and
00:56:19
done.
00:56:20
>> I'm here to deliver stats for you live,
00:56:21
Kade. By the way, the Brewers Pagarian
00:56:24
win percentage
00:56:25
>> 0.629.
00:56:27
Their actual win percentage 0.627.
00:56:30
>> Look at that. Look at that. So, it's not
00:56:32
that they're outperforming their run
00:56:35
right there. They're they're matching.
00:56:36
>> That's a mark of a truly elite team that
00:56:38
they hit their Pythagorean.
00:56:41
average. Right on. No, I mean that it is
00:56:43
interesting because you know it's kind
00:56:44
of like you know I think on paper like
00:56:46
you know just in terms of player like
00:56:48
like probably the preseason rankings
00:56:49
that do the kind of sum of the war the
00:56:51
player you know that try and build up
00:56:52
teams from their component parks
00:56:54
probably constantly underestimate the
00:56:56
Brewers because there seems to be like
00:56:58
you know all these like new guys always
00:56:59
coming out of the system to fill in the
00:57:00
losses. They I mean
00:57:02
>> let me the other thing that caught my
00:57:03
say one other thing Kate about baseball.
00:57:06
The Dodgers right now have the fourth
00:57:08
best record in the National League, yet
00:57:10
they're by far still the betting
00:57:12
favorite for the National League to go
00:57:15
to the World Series. So, that to me is
00:57:17
just interesting. And, you know, you've
00:57:18
always talked about how long how much
00:57:20
weight do we put on prior and how much
00:57:22
when do we start, you know, when do
00:57:24
prior start to have less and less
00:57:25
weight? It has to be prior related
00:57:27
because there's nothing right now. Right
00:57:29
now, there's still 40 games to go
00:57:31
roughly. There's nothing right now that
00:57:32
suggests that they're better than the
00:57:34
Brewers or the Phillies or the Cubs or
00:57:36
even possibly the Padres's in their own
00:57:38
division that would suggest that they're
00:57:40
they should be plus 250 and these other
00:57:42
teams are plus a thousand. It just
00:57:44
there's nothing in the data right now.
00:57:46
>> I think that's just name familiarity at
00:57:48
this early part of the proceedings with
00:57:50
betting. I don't know how much that's
00:57:52
that's a thing, but like you know
00:57:53
probably the Yankees like are still like
00:57:56
you know a higher bet than they
00:57:57
otherwise would be
00:57:58
>> for sure. Um,
00:57:59
>> so one one it is interesting and and I
00:58:02
mean the expectations were so high
00:58:04
coming in and so I I guess that to some
00:58:06
extent could make sense, but I'd be
00:58:07
curious to push into that deeper to know
00:58:09
what the implied weight is and whether
00:58:11
there's any rationality to that.
00:58:13
>> Um, okay, last question on baseball.
00:58:15
Y'all noted somewhere that in the AL
00:58:19
it's uh Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox
00:58:22
all within a game or two of each other
00:58:23
for two of the three final. So, if you
00:58:27
had to pick, which team of those three
00:58:29
would not make the two wild card spots,
00:58:31
who do you least believe among those
00:58:34
three? Yankees, Guardians, and Red Sox?
00:58:37
Of course, I'm talking to a Yankee and a
00:58:38
Red Sox fan, and I'll take the
00:58:40
Guardians. I'm always pulling for the
00:58:41
Guardians. So, who who's going to be
00:58:42
disappointed here at the end of the
00:58:44
year?
00:58:44
>> I don't think the I think the Yankees
00:58:46
have not played their best baseball in
00:58:48
the last 50 games. I think they'll get
00:58:50
their act together enough to make one of
00:58:52
the wild card spots. I don't know enough
00:58:54
about Boston or or the Guardians. If I
00:58:56
had to say which one would be out, I'd
00:58:58
say Boston.
00:58:59
>> Yeah. I mean, I I I kind of I I I
00:59:01
unfortunately I have to agree with my
00:59:03
friend and colleague Eric on this one. I
00:59:05
I think the Yankees are the ones most
00:59:08
likely to kind of make a run just
00:59:10
because they've been playing so horribly
00:59:12
to get into that like wild card
00:59:13
business. They were like six, seven
00:59:15
games up on the division not that long
00:59:17
ago. So, they're they're kind of, I
00:59:19
guess, due for a little bit of a
00:59:20
regression back up to their standard.
00:59:23
Um, and that's bad news for the Reds.
00:59:26
That's bad news for some like another
00:59:28
division team that has to play them a
00:59:29
lot still to come. Okay.
00:59:31
>> And you know, so I think, you know, it's
00:59:32
going to be very hard for two out of
00:59:34
those three
00:59:35
>> teams to to come out this. It it
00:59:37
happened last year that two two Central
00:59:38
teams both made wild ball cards. But
00:59:40
>> yeah, but talk about a good
00:59:41
parsimmonious answer. So you got to take
00:59:44
one out of the one division and take the
00:59:46
team that's not playing the other two.
00:59:47
That's very very good. Shame. Okay guys,
00:59:50
why don't we wrap it there, call it a
00:59:52
week. We'll come back and do this again
00:59:53
next time. For the whole team here, Eric
00:59:55
Bradlo, my colleague, collaborator,
00:59:57
longtime co-host. Shane Jensen, same
00:59:59
thing. Audi Wider and Absentia for Dion
01:00:02
Simpkins, the boss man. D Patel running
01:00:04
this show for the hire. She's a big
01:00:06
executive running things for behind the
01:00:08
scenes. D, we depend on D and Dion. Many
01:00:11
thanks to those guys. Many thanks to
01:00:12
y'all for listening. Come back and join
01:00:14
us next time. Between now and then,
01:00:17
enjoy your sports.
01:00:19
[Music]
