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Welcome everybody to Wharton Moneyball here on the Wharton podcast network. This is Eric Bradlo, professor of
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marketing statistics and data science here at the Wharton School. Today I'm joined by my co-host, longtime friend
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and collaborator Shane Jensen. Uh some combination of the two of us, Kade Massie and Audi Winer are here every
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week on Wharton Moneyball. Um Shane, I've always said the best part of our show, we know it's not the pay we get.
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We know it's not the glory. Although I did show you tell you guys my story that
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I was a at a winery in Oregon and a guy came up to me and said, "You're the
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Wharton Moneyball guy." That was priceless. Let me just tell you, Shane. But the real best part of our show is
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that we get talk to we get to talk to people that are doing sports analytics, the intersection of the two right in the
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field, the people that are living it, breathing it. And today, certainly a longtime guest of the show, uh, someone
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who needs no introduction to our Wharton Moneyball audience, and that's Bill
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Connelly. Bill's going to talk to us today about lots of topics, tennis, college football, etc. But Bill, as
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always, welcome back to Wharton Moneyball. >> Always always fun. I'm just hoping that
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my uh dogs don't bark too much. They're trying to I I can never be too professional here. So, um,
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>> well, we're we're informal here, as you know, on Morton Moneyball. So, Bill,
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just so everybody knows, where what what's your actual title right now? Where can people follow you? Where can
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they see the content? Well, we know content from you is all over the place now, but you if you could just tell our
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listeners your title, where to find your content, etc., that'd be great. >> Uh, I think the title is pretty
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straight. It's just staff writer uh with ESPN.com. But, yeah, obviously obviously
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the intention there was mostly college football and remains mostly college football. But once I was kind of in the
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in the walls, they couldn't get rid of me. And suddenly I'm doing tennis and
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soccer and softball and and a number of other things. So I always like doing that. It's it's like a pallet cleanser
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and I I I get more energy for college football when I'm doing other stuff, too, I think.
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>> Well, let me let's ask you since, you know, I think Kade Massie, our one of
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our our primary hosts, if you'd like, is going to be joining us in a little bit.
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And of course, there's no one that cares more about college football than the two
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of you guys. So, I might hold off on that just for a second. Um, I'm a huge tennis guy, as you know. Um, you know,
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we've just left a big part of the season. We're in a big tournament right
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now in Cincinnati. Obviously, we have the US Open upcoming. I'm thrilled that
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I'm going to the US Open again this year. Um, what what are you thinking about when you're thinking about uh
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tennis right now? Let's start with the men's side. Um, and then we'll get to
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the women's side. Um, it appears that, you know, it's going to be S or Alcarez
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winning the title. I don't know how it's not going to be one of the two of them,
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but how do you view Let's start with men's professional tennis right now.
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>> Yeah, I mean, it's kind of underwhelming, honestly. Like, and I say
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that, you know, center Alcarez matches are phenomenal. Even even at Wimbledon where, you know, it center took control.
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I guess he kind of wobbled for a second early on and then he took control. It kind of seemed like it was going to be
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pretty straightforward for set win. That was still just the the points themselves
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are phenomenal when those two are going. It's just that you know this spring
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there was an opportunity for the men's tour to kind of take well to to to rise
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up a little bit centers out. Alcarez was injured and wobbly and there was a chance for somebody to kind of seize
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control make this kind of a big three sort of thing and just failed miserably. Alexander Zerv had a chance to move to
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number one and got upset at like five straight tournaments. And you know, we've seen Taylor Fritz kind of max
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himself out. There's still hope that somebody like a Jack Draper or or a Ben
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Shelton can have. It sure seems like they have a lot of upside and and maybe they can make
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things interesting. But I wrote it during Wimbledon that like the women's tour right now is more interesting than
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I think I've ever seen it. just the number of different uh personalities and
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and really really high caliber players. Minster, we lost our big three and we thought it was going to be wide open and
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instead it was a big two that uh emerged instead. >> Well, let me ask you before I move away
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from just the big two. I want do want to talk about a few other players. Who do you think has the max
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of the two players? Because I've always had the perception first. You could comment on this too. I always thought on
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their best day, Djokovic was not the best. I never thought that. I just didn't.
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>> But over 15 years, they're not going to have their best day. And he's definitely the
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max men cuz he was great on every day. But if Federer was at the top of his game, if Nadal was the top game, look, I
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saw Stan Roinka blow away Djokovic best Andy Murray blow away Djokovic. Um, I never thought he had the highest peak
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peak peak performance, but over 15 years he's clearly the most accomplished tennis player. How do you feel about You
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could talk about those three andor how do you feel about center and Alvarez? >> Yeah, I mean it is a Celings versus
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Flores thing here. Um, I feel like I make that reference far too much on the college football side, and I'm going to
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when we talk about college football, but um, no, I mean, Djokovic, the his ability to defend and grind and and just
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wear people down, um, gave him the highest floor we've ever seen. Like, we knew his level was going to hit a
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certain mark. Um, but, you know, Nadal and Feder, especially, you know, Federra didn't have a great record. I guess
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their age difference was pretty significant, but um you know, Federer's upside was remarkable. And I do think
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that what we see with Alcarez and center now, like center just playing a neutral
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point, like if he's just hitting the ball with somebody and just uh kind of messing around half focused, every ball
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he's going to hit is going to be within about two feet of the baseline. He get
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he hits everything with just an incredible depth. He he it's kind of like he accidentally hits winners
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sometimes because it's just so easy. Um and and his natural game is just pretty
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remarkable. But Alcarez, what we saw in the French Open final against center where you know center found a certain
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level and didn't really blow a two set lead. Alcarez just came back and took it
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and especially late. It felt like you know center in that last tiebreaker didn't really every point that he lost
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he hit at least one remarkable shot and Alcarez won all those points anyway. So,
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I think that's that is really what we're dealing with is when Alcarez I think
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he's got about the highest ceiling we've ever seen, but center's floor might be,
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you know, peak Djokovic at some point as well. Like he just he defends well. He moves well. He it feels like he has to
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take about a step and a half to reach one uh end of the court and the other and you just can't get anything by him.
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And um it's really incredible to watch. I I I didn't really always enjoy the
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kind of suffer ball matches that Jookovic and Murray played. And it feels like center is kind of a natural
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sufferball guy, but he's just got such natural offense, too, that he he's still
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really entertaining. >> But let's also remember the, you know, how many match points S had at the
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French. S's one point away from holding all four grand slams right now. So, as
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much as we want to say Djokovic's ceiling is higher, and I happen to I mean, uh Alcarazz's ceiling is higher,
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and I happen to agree with you, >> center is one point away from having the
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center slam. >> Yeah, it looked like we were kind of in a situation where it was going to be
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center on hard courts and Alcarez on the natural courts, but then center beat him
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at Wimbledon pretty comfortably. And yeah, like you said, had had match point, had championship point in Paris
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as well. So, his he's pretty ridiculous. And I and I do hope for the sake of the
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men's game. I I I do think Draper and Shelton in particular um >> are are I don't know if they're the most
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likely, but I think that'd be Shelton especially with his personality. That'd
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be a really fun addition if he can find another level, but right now he can beat
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pretty much anybody in the game except Alcarz and Center. Um so he he's kind of
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stuck there. I don't know how he makes up that difference. Yeah, I said this on
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the show a couple weeks ago after SR had won that I think that changed the trajectory of men's tennis for those
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two. And the reason I say that is had Alcarez won, >> he would have been up six majors to
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three. >> Yeah. >> He would have a 9 and4 record >> against at that time he would have had a
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9 and4 record including beating him the last five times had he won that match. So that match really leveled the playing
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field especially given it was at Wimbledon. He was the two-time defending champ. I thought that match was crucial
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in their rivalry going forward. I don't know how you saw it from a let's call it
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historical perspective. >> Yeah. I mean, I was pretty comfortable thinking that center was the better
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overall player, but one of the fun things about this rivalry right now is that the lower ranked t player usually
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wins. Uh center was the, you know, he kind of broke that streak as well at Wimbledon. So, I am hoping that they
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kind of just figure out ways to top each other. That's how the big three really
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became what they did was they had to figure out how to, you know, Nadal was kind of built to beat Federer and then
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Federer had to fill a couple holes in his game. Got what got back on top of Nadal late in their rivalry. That was
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that made it a lot of fun. So hopefully Alcarez can generate whatever he needs to to to make sure that center doesn't
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pull away. But if somebody's going to pull away right now, it's going to be
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center. He's remarkably consistent. >> I agree with that. What's your you had
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mentioned the diversity or the diffusion of talent in the women's game. I think
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you and I both agree on any possibly every given point on any given match Sabalena is the most talented player.
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However, >> you know, I'm not saying only, but she only has three grand slams. Let's not
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make it seem like she's got 10. I mean, Swantech, I think, has six now. I think
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four French, a US Open, and a Wimbledon. And you know, uh, she's clearly the most
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accomplished player. Um, I think if Sabalena plays her best, she beats Swan Techch, I think. I think. I'm not I'm
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not sure of that. Well, look, there's Koko Goff, who's a major champion.
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Madison Keys just recently won a major championship. There's Robbakana who's
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won a championship recently. Bonusa won a championship recently. On the women's
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side, I think there's some streak going on. You may remember this, Bill, something like nine or 10 different
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winners like out of some number of tournaments. It's like there's not even
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been a much of a repeat champion on the women's side. So, how do you see that?
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>> Yeah, I think I mean it's funny anytime you start talking about the women's
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game, you know, it's best of three, so it is a little more random than the men's in the slams. Um, and and really
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you can see whatever you want to see. If you want to say like there's no standout, I know Muratagloo, uh, Osaka's
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coach had a ridiculous line about how I just don't see any elite players right
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now. Like, are you freaking kidding me? Like, right now, we have at least three Hall of Famers at the top of the sport.
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Like, Zabalinka has certainly blown some matches. She gets, but she's there in
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every single what is it like? >> I I didn't I >> It's 10 or 11 straight at least quarter.
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>> 10 of 11 10 of 11 semis in like 11 straight quarters or something like that. She's always there.
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Has until she lost to Zabalinka in the French Open, she was on the rough and a doll pace in terms of French Open titles
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at a certain age. Uh Koko Goff is is has she turned 20? She's not 22 yet. She has
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two slams already. Um and usually two usually two gets you in. So if she quits to tomorrow, she might be a Hall of
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Famer. I I don't think she's going to quit tomorrow. But if you accept that,
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okay, if you're in the Hall of Fame, that probably means you are awesome. Then look at all the players who have
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beaten Zebalinka, Fiontech in golf of late. Like Fiontech still can't ever beat um Elena Oapinko. And Osta Pinko is
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just a one note hit everything as hard as you can player. Um >> who's got a major
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>> who has she does um and and it's really fun. I'm always rooting for her to make
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a run because she's just so fun to watch. But then, you know, Rabbakana has has landed a lot of shots against
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Zabalinka and SPTECH and Goff struggled against um Navaro last year and you just
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you start to tie this all together and you start to realize like there are 20 players like you know we have three Hall
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of Famers at the top and like 20 players in a given tournament could win that tournament just based on well based on
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the randomness of best of three and just the fact >> just won just won and Boo just won the
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Toronto or what I forget if it was Toronto or Montreal Montreal. Montreal. >> Montreal. But and she beat like four top
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20 players. >> Yeah. She was unbelievable in that tournament. And she basically she
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crushes everything she touches and and and beat a couple players who took the first step from her. She just continued
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to land body blow after body blow and they started to break down. I thought, you know, Osaka certainly looked like
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she was in the clear to finally kind of make her big breakthrough after in this last year and a half since she came back
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from maternity leave and then Embucko wore her down physically and then emotionally like the the number of
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players who are really interesting. I just, you know, when when a slam starts, I find myself like having having center
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Alcraz at the end is fun, but I find myself for the first week and a half of a given slam paying far more attention
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to the women's side than the men's because starting in about the second round, you have some wildly impressive
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matchups on the on the women's side. I just I it's a really really fun tour to
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follow. Lots of different personalities, shapes, sizes, ages. You got like three
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different generations that are all producing top five level play right now. And it's just a lot of fun. And I I do
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kind of worry about the men's side. You know, obviously lots of great athletes
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and and fun games on the men's side, too. But you do kind of know who's going
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to win in the end, especially with slams and and right now. >> Well, the challenge also is remember
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this happened with the big three for so long is that you're going to have to
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beat probably Sinner and Alcarez >> to to win a slam. So that's, you know,
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and with the big three, it was at least two of them. And that's the challenge.
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Like, can, you know, can um, you know, can someone beat Alcarz on a given day? Probably more so than Sinner. Yeah. But
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then you have Sinner waiting for you in the final. So that's that's the challenge.
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>> Yeah. And and that's kind of immediately where you look anytime a draw comes out.
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Like if we're going to have any sort of person with any sort of chance like who's not on the side of center Djokovic
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still and Alcarez like whoever is in that other quarter maybe they get lucky. Maybe you know Alcarez gets distracted
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by clouds for too long and accidentally loses or something. But um man yeah it's
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it's great to have that at the end. But I I the the women's tour is is just an
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absolute blast right now. I think our college football person just entered the uh
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>> Yeah. Well, before we move on to college football, one one last question about
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tennis. Um >> how do you think you just made the comment that some people have said
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there's no like greats in the game today on the women's side? Yeah. Um, how do
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you think about because we've talked about this, Shane knows, we've we've
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talked about this comparing eras and sports as someone that writes for ESPN, but someone I think that has not a
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historical knowledge of tennis or you could even think about it for college football like, you know, last year's
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Ohio State team did not play Alabama of 2009. They didn't play, you know, they
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just didn't play each other. How do you think about comparing today's women's players with obviously
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the person's pining whoever this is pining for the Serena Williams days or you know the Martina Na Talova and Chris
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Everett days. Well, all right. But you know Swante isn't playing them. So how
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do you think about comparing different eras in sports? Yeah, I mean I saw Serena lose to a lot of pretty mediocre
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players like the the you know she showed up more often than obviously anybody ever has on the on the women's side and
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and when her best was about as was probably as good as we've ever seen. But I mean she was still vulnerable to
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upsets at times. So, I don't really I it does feel like the whole, you know,
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nostalgia thing and everything was always better in the past really really rears its head with with tennis and
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especially women's tennis. Um, but like Lindsay Davenport, Serena Williams, Venus, all these players were incredible
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and also lost a lot. Uh, because best of three is really hard. So, um, you know,
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that's I I I think the depth of of talent and athleticism and really kind of diversity on the women's tour is is
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as high as I can remember it, at least going back to, you know, maybe in the mid 2000s when you had kind of peak
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Serena or near peak Serena and Venus and Davenport and um, uh, Morzmo and, you know, you still had Henn and Kers like
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maybe that was deeper. Um, but this is at least the best I think we've seen in
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20 years. >> Well, Shane, you wanted to jump in, please. >> Yeah, Bill, I just kind of you're kind
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of talking about sort of like, you know, like his rankings and kind of, you know,
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them over time. Um, Eric, when he asked the question was talk brought up both tennis and also just kind of I think
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we're going to transition to college football. This might be a good kind of way to do that. Um, can you comment
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maybe on like how much like if you said something like an ELO ranking or person like like a a sport where it's a a
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player specific sport like an individual specific sport and how con or or how consistent that kind of player ranking
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or how slowly that evolves over time versus like you know team based rankings and say college football year to year.
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You could probably use some kind of ELO model for that too but it might be a lot
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less consistent or maybe more. I don't know. >> Yeah. I mean, I I I do lean a lot on the
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tennis abstract numbers. Um, >> yep, >> that's an incredible site. And that's
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kind of how at the start of every tournament, especially every slam, I always take a big look at um, you know,
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the the abstract odds. And I was just looking I had already had it pulled up when you were when you started talking.
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So, like of the in in in his uh in Jeff Sackman's ELO rankings there, top 14
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players on the women's tour, five of them have had their best their peak their peak rating in 2025. So, you've
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got a lot of those, but then you got five more who were in 2024. Madison Keys peaked in 2016. Sitelina peaked in 2018.
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It it really is kind of a broad range of players who have been really really solid for a long time and then also
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players who are peaking now. And I don't know, like it's just it's really fun to
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to just look at the list and see, you know, an 18-year-old Embokco really close in the ratings to a third nearly
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31y old Spidilina. Um just a lot of different generations bringing bringing a really high level. And I'm pretty sure
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if I looked at the men's tour right now, it'd be kind of a different be a lot of
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people who peaked in 2025, but their peaks aren't very big right now. >> Well, we' spent a good amount of time on
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tennis. It's good to get your thoughts, Bill, on uh both the previous tournaments and of course the upcoming
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US Open. Uh but even more importantly, our friend, colleague, and primary host, Kade Massia, joined the face of college
00:18:51
football, certainly of Wharton Moneyball, if not broader. So, I'm glad that Kate's here to start our discussion
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of college football. >> Thanks, Eric. Apologies, guys. Uh of all the weeks to have technological issues,
00:19:02
my gosh, this is my favorite week of the year. Little little college football preview. Um, we get Godfrey here in the
00:19:09
next week or two. So, we're going to split the O' Connelly Godfrey uh partnership as our preview, but we we
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get Bill C. I'm always excited to talk to Bill C, but especially this time of
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year. My god. >> Um, Bill, how how are you? How are you feeling? How what what are you excited
00:19:26
about? >> I'm always curious when it's me that I'm ready for the season because usually,
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you know, everybody starts ramping like I've been talking about it for months
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and then everybody starts ramping up in media days. I'm like, man, I'm not
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ready. I just I need a little more time here >> that you know that's that's humbling to
00:19:40
the rest of us because you're writing like conference previews in February. >> Well, I I can't anymore because the
00:19:46
roster is all completely flipping in May. But um you know, no like I I finished my my big conference previews
00:19:53
which because conferences are so big, those previews are now like 10,000 words per conference. Um, but yeah, finish
00:19:59
those in July and then I go through kind of my, you know, I have my my annual pieces like the ifs list and the most
00:20:06
important players and all this that are basically designed to get me ready. People seem to like them, but really I
00:20:11
write them for me just so I can get everything lined up in my head. And I think I'm there. I between between those
00:20:17
pieces and I just finalized my the the last SPS plus rankings to be released I think on Thursday and um laying out a
00:20:26
couple pieces here coming up. I I took my first dive into the small school universe. I know when all the big games
00:20:31
are for like you know D2 and NIA and whatnot. So I think some point either today or yesterday it clicked. I'm I'm
00:20:37
ready. I'm we're we're good to go here. >> Okay. Well, I'm glad to hear it. Um, but I also this
00:20:45
is a different season for you because you've got a big book launching. I I went to get the book and I was mad
00:20:50
because the book's not available until September two, I think. >> I mean, I could send you a PDF just for
00:20:55
the record. Like I think you get special I think you get special priv privileges
00:20:58
here if you want them. >> I'm ready. Send it. I'm ready. >> Want you to xerox it and scan it if you
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could. >> God Godfrey said the same thing. Like if you send me a PDF, I'm just going to go
00:21:08
to Kinko's and print it. It's God. Exact. Um, well, tell us something about the
00:21:17
book. And I've got some questions about the season. Let's do your book real
00:21:20
quick. Tell what is the book? What's the gist of the book? Why the book now? And
00:21:24
I I won't even oo and over the fact that you wrote this book while you do everything else you do. I don't know how
00:21:28
you write all you do, but tell us about the book. September 2 available. What's
00:21:31
it What's it called? >> Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football. Now,
00:21:37
uh, I love the title. Also, it's a whole bunch of me going, I don't know. Um, so
00:21:41
I don't know how definitive it really is, but um, you know, that's just the
00:21:45
odds brain in me. I can never actually say anything with certainty. Um, no, it's basically how do we get here? Where
00:21:51
are we going? But, you know, it's it's half history book, half what ended up
00:21:55
being like a manifesto of where I think she things should go or what the actual worry signs are. Because in college
00:22:01
football especially with every sport really, but in college football especially, anything we don't like, any
00:22:05
change we don't like, we think it's going to kill college football. But you
00:22:09
can't find a single thing right now that suggests that there's any like ratings
00:22:13
are great, attendance is good. Like it seems like things are pretty healthy, but you know the
00:22:19
>> the inequality behind the scenes has me very concerned at the moment because I
00:22:22
think that's only going to get worse. Um, and I just wanted to kind of separate things out like so much has
00:22:29
changed so quickly that we just kind of think of it as a giant monolith of of change. But, you know, I can be I can
00:22:38
tell you that, you know, some of the conference realignment things are bad, but some of the pay players thing is are
00:22:44
very good. And some of the, you know, the the play arguing about like the expansion of the playoff is good, but
00:22:51
this is bad, but this is good. and and I just kind of wanted this, you know, again, I write for myself basically. I
00:22:57
wanted to clear my own head and and I think it uh it worked pretty well. >> Okay. You you some people don't know
00:23:03
this about you, but you you really really are a college football historian in addition to being an analyst and a
00:23:08
writer. Often when we're trying to make sense of current events, it helps to
00:23:12
have that long view, that historical view. >> Often we think that people are
00:23:15
forgetting something about the past that still informs today. But it does feel like maybe college football is
00:23:22
substantively different now. Maybe the past is less relevant now. So my question to you as the historian is
00:23:27
like, you know, can you play that history card now and say, "Well, this is how it used to be. Don't don't
00:23:31
overreact. We've seen this stuff before. You know, it's no big deal." Or or are
00:23:35
you like, "No, no, no. This is so categorically different that it's a break from the past."
00:23:39
>> Well, I mean, the biggest difference is after we we were arguing about, you
00:23:42
know, a playoff for 50 years. We were arguing about this breakaway like the biggest schools getting what they wanted
00:23:47
and breaking away for 50 years. We've been arguing about all these things forever. But yeah, in the 2020s these
00:23:53
things actually happened. So that that alone makes it different. No question about that. Um I did think, you know,
00:23:59
there's always things to learn from history about, you know, how loyalty has
00:24:03
never been a thing. Like Washington leaving Washington State isn't really a surprise because they tried to in the
00:24:08
50s uh and just didn't succeed. Uh but now that geography is officially not a
00:24:13
thing anymore, they were able to actually finally uh break apart. But you know, yeah, I I I think there's
00:24:19
certainly what I also tried to do was was learn from other sports. Um you know, how did NASCAR fall from grace?
00:24:25
What are some of the lessons we can learn there? because I think that one I know a lot of people have made that
00:24:29
great comparison, but I do think it's a pretty legit one when it comes to taking
00:24:34
your base fans for granted in the in the search for casual fans and if there's
00:24:38
any sort of crisis and suddenly the casuals go away, maybe you'll find out the hardcores did too. You know, things
00:24:43
like that that you know, just kind of warning signs to look out for. Um, I'm
00:24:47
always a very competitive, balanced driven person. I like parody or more than I get. Uh, which is crazy that I'm
00:24:54
a college football person. uh in general, but you know, I I I took a you know, I I I talked to somebody who who
00:25:01
talks a lot about Australian rules, who writes about Australian rules football because Australia does parody. Australia
00:25:06
is obsessed with parody. Uh so just kind of I I tried to take from other sports and and learn what we could learn um to
00:25:13
to you know, see what I found. That's that's a really intriguing bill just uh
00:25:18
just because uh I think you know parody is something that I think we agree all is a notion we want for every sport but
00:25:25
I feel like it's a very hard thing to compare kind of across sports you know
00:25:29
you know what what what parody in American football would mean compared to parody in hockey or baseball or or you
00:25:36
know again at the individual player level tennis we were talking about earlier. I don't know if you can kind of
00:25:41
talk about like how hard it is to bridge sports like like how how how much can you learn from one sport struggle with
00:25:47
par or or or you know I guess implementation or attempts at par versus you know for for another sport.
00:25:53
>> Yeah. In Australia this isn't necessarily Australian rules football
00:25:56
but um with rugby and some of the lower level Aussie rules football they they basically they don't have a salary cap.
00:26:01
They have a player player rating system, I think is what it's called, or player
00:26:05
point system where basically like the quality of the player costs more. Like if you want a a former Australian rules
00:26:13
a highlevel pro for your like midlevel like semi-pro Australian rules football team, he's going to cost a lot of
00:26:20
points. You can pay him whatever you want, but you're not going to be able to
00:26:22
to you get that many other good players because they they they're obsessed with
00:26:26
roster balance. And so it was just kind of a fun exercise. I mean, I think we know in the short term where things are
00:26:32
headed and they're not play, you know, even though we have recruiting rankings
00:26:35
and we could try to assign a a you know, you can only assign so many fivestar guys limit. If we wanted to do that, I'm
00:26:41
I'm good with it. I doubt it happens. But at some point, you know, out when the when the SEC and Big 10 are kind of
00:26:48
done with their blood lust here in the short term, we might find that there are some problems emerging and we need to
00:26:53
have some other ideas. So, that was kind of the goal here. Bill, since we're
00:26:57
obviously a statistics show as well, I thought I'd I'll throw in some statistics jargon, but to ask you a
00:27:01
substantive college football question. Um, if you look at the last 15, 20 years, it appears that there's been,
00:27:07
I'll call it, state dependence or runs by conference in the national title. Like we looked at well, the SEC will
00:27:14
never be beat. LSU, Bama, Georgia, Georgia. Well, the last two have been won by Michigan and Ohio State.
00:27:20
>> Yeah. So, do you see a possib first of all, do you believe in conference level
00:27:28
strength and state dependence where conferences kind of go on runs or not really? And B, if the answer to the
00:27:36
first one is yes, do you think we're in a Big 10 run right now and we might see
00:27:40
that for the next couple years? >> No, I really don't. I mean, I think I
00:27:44
what I told SEC people when SEC teams will win a lot of titles is the same thing I'm telling Big 10 people now.
00:27:49
like the best conference is the best conference. We have power ratings. We have a lot of ways to evaluate who has
00:27:54
the best conference, but who won the last game of the season probably isn't the best way to do that. Uh, you know,
00:28:00
Alabama won a lot of those national titles. That didn't have anything to do with Vanderbilt. Like the SEC, they can
00:28:06
they can claim that they, you know, they're part of the best conference or whatever because Alabama won all those
00:28:11
titles. That's not really a great a great thing. But I do think, you know, right now, like in on a year-to-year
00:28:17
basis, the SEC grades out comfortably the best on average, just in terms of average SP plus rating or whatever. Um,
00:28:25
but, you know, heading into this season, especially, that doesn't, you know, the
00:28:29
SEC might be the best overall because it doesn't have as many terrible teams.
00:28:32
That doesn't really mean that Ohio State and Penn State don't have a really good
00:28:35
chance of winning the national title this year. It just means they're going to have a lot of team light heavyweight
00:28:39
and heavyweight teams with a decent chance. Well, also to your point, Bill, just to follow up one last thing, the
00:28:43
new college football playoff system will also help that because now one loss by an Ohio State or Penn State, well,
00:28:51
you're still in the playoffs. You you know the they'll still have an opportunity to win it,
00:28:55
>> right? And and also, you know, it it's a genuine tournament. The 14 playoff was
00:29:00
great. It was an improvement in my eyes, but it still wasn't really it was one
00:29:03
extra game. It wasn't like a complete change. Now, we have a tournament at the
00:29:07
end of the season. And tournaments have a lot of randomness that you can't say
00:29:10
if you know the eight seed makes a run at some point. Um, you know, whoever that might be. Let's say LSU makes a run
00:29:18
and and and wins the title kind of unexpectedly. Well, actually Ohio State, what were they? They were pretty close
00:29:22
to the eight seed last year. They were the eight seed last year. Y um even though they clearly weren't the eighth
00:29:27
best team, but yeah, you have a team that loses three games but sneaks in, makes a run, that doesn't mean their
00:29:32
conference was best. It just means they got hot at the right time. out. >> All right, guys. Let's let's continue
00:29:37
down this line and talk about this season and and we got a little bit of a late start. So, why don't we do do this?
00:29:43
>> I don't know if I'm capable of short answers, but let's go. Let's try.
00:29:45
>> And um well, we're going to challenge you, Bill. I don't know if my colleagues are
00:29:50
capable of short kibbitzing, but we're going to ask them to be brief kibitzers
00:29:53
as well. Um and this is going to give us a chance to talk about a lot of teams and conferences, but I've got eight I've
00:29:58
got eight, just so you know, eight lightning round questions for you. And let's let's try to keep it concise, but
00:30:04
if we need to dive, we can dive. Number one, yesterday AP poll was released. Texas is number one. First time in the
00:30:10
history of the poll, which is shocking to most people. 75 years, Texas never been number one before. Number two is
00:30:16
PSU, but Penn State only like five votes behind or not even vote full votes. I mean, it was really neck and neck. If
00:30:22
you had to bet on one of those two teams, winning the national championship, Texas or Penn State,
00:30:26
>> I think Penn State just because a they have an easier schedule and they're more
00:30:29
likely to get there and b they have more known quantities. Texas like if if Arch
00:30:34
Manning is the best player in the country, Texas is number one. That that's fine. Like I don't really dispute
00:30:37
that. But it kind of takes an assumption that Texas is the that that Arch is the
00:30:42
best player in the country. If Texas is going to be number one, they have two brand new lines. They have a receiving
00:30:47
core I don't really trust. I'm not sure if Texas's coaches do either. Like they
00:30:50
got a lot of questions. And if Arch is anything less than amazing, that that's
00:30:54
there there are some issues there. This this is not a short answer obviously. Um
00:30:59
but just there is a point that I've I've been making a lot that I really find
00:31:02
interesting. We have two kind of known birds in hand here with Penn State and Clemson and then we have a whole bunch
00:31:08
of teams that probably have more upside and a whole bunch of unknowns and that makes it a really really interesting
00:31:13
year to talk about. >> Well, interesting you bring that up because another pairing I want to give
00:31:17
you national championship chances. Who do you got? Clemson or Alabama? >> Alabama. I just don't I don't trust
00:31:26
Clemson as a top five team. We haven't This has been my point all all off season. Like they've a their last four
00:31:33
years they've averaged like an 18.5 ranking in SP plus. Like they have the most returning production in the
00:31:39
country. This is going to be their best team in five years. I just don't trust
00:31:42
that that's a top five team. It might only be like a top 10 team. >> Wow.
00:31:48
Wow. Okay. And and Alabama, you clearly think there's some upside there. That's
00:31:51
kind of a sneaky strong team this year, right? >> Yeah. Great defense last year even uh
00:31:56
aside from basically like 45 minutes against Georgia and Vanderbilt and like the the quarterback marriage just wasn't
00:32:03
a good one. Never was. Defense has figured it out late last season. I don't know if Tai if Tai Simpson is good, not
00:32:08
even like Heisman, just good. That's a really really really good football team.
00:32:12
>> But Bill, let me just ask you quickly about just to follow up Kate's question.
00:32:16
What what do you what concerns you about Clemson that you know they're I'm just
00:32:20
look staring at it right now. They're number four in the AP. They're number
00:32:23
six in the Clemson in the coaches poll. And you've just commented that you're
00:32:27
not sure they're even really top 10. What do you see that might not be included in these votes or these models,
00:32:33
etc.? >> Well, recent history more than anything, they've been, you know, eight, they
00:32:37
haven't been a top 15 team in S+ since 2020. Um, so they're projected to
00:32:43
improve a lot because of the returning production, but that just that only gets you so high. They haven't had an elite
00:32:48
offense in years. They haven't had an elite defense in years. And we're just
00:32:51
kind of to project or to to vote for them in the top five means you just kind of assume all these things are going to
00:32:57
come together at once. And that's that can happen. And and again, like I'm not
00:33:00
rooting against it by any means. I think it'd be pretty interesting if they did
00:33:04
rise back. I I just don't I don't trust it. I don't I don't see it yet.
00:33:08
>> All right. So, I've got eight of these lightning round questions. The first
00:33:11
four are these head-to-head matchups. Who's best for the national championship? We're on number three. And
00:33:15
now I'm going to go to two tried andrue. No question they're capable. Who do you
00:33:21
have between Ohio State and Georgia? Ohio State. >> Who's more likely to win the national
00:33:28
championship? Ohio State. All right. Why is that? >> Well, they have the two best players in
00:33:32
college football. That's a good place to start. Um there's a lot of uncertainty
00:33:36
there. Like two new coordinators, new a very young quarterback. Like I'm I don't
00:33:40
You know, I don't think they're they're going to be number one in SP plus
00:33:44
spoiler, but I don't love that. I don't think they're far and away number one by
00:33:48
any means, but they just have the most upside. Georgia's really funny this year. I think they always have, speaking
00:33:53
of ceilings and floors, they always have a ridiculously high floor. They only lose to awesome teams. And also, what
00:33:59
are they elite at this year? We don't know that they're elite at anything this
00:34:02
year. Their quarterbacks knew their skill core wasn't good enough last year.
00:34:05
Their offensive line wasn't good enough. the defensive line came and went and
00:34:08
then lost everybody. Um, I know people love Kristen Miller, defensive tackle. Like, there's obviously upside there. We
00:34:15
just haven't seen any of it. Like, we don't know that they're going to be
00:34:18
elite in anything. So, give me the team that I know has at least a couple of really, really, really good, good
00:34:22
pieces. >> Okay. Two I wanted to hear you talk about, so I'll just put them against
00:34:25
each other. Oregon and Notre Dame. Oregon and Notre Dame. >> I guess Notre Dame. Oregon lost a lot. I
00:34:31
didn't realize until I wrote the Big 10 preview just how much Oregon lost from
00:34:35
last season. That offense is brand new. Um, Dante Moore is the likely quarterback and his upside. We don't,
00:34:42
all we know is he kind of bombed at UCLA two years ago as a true freshman, which
00:34:46
happens, but I went back and read his scouting reports from when he was recruiting. He was a fivestar recruit
00:34:52
and all the all the scouting reports were basically like doesn't make mistakes, makes the the right decisions.
00:34:57
It doesn't really say anything about his physical upside. And I mean, I guess if
00:35:02
you're succeeding Dylan Gabriel, then maybe that's that's right. You know,
00:35:05
Gabriel didn't have a lot of physical upside, but just was really good quarterback. So, maybe that works out.
00:35:10
Okay. But I I had a lot more questions about Oregon than I realized. Um, and Notre Dame, obviously, they have a new
00:35:15
quarterback, too. So, some of these new quarterbacks are kind of bomb or or not,
00:35:19
you know, at least not be superstars, but I like a lot of what Notre Dame returns otherwise.
00:35:24
>> Okay, let's go to the final four lightning round questions. Away from the
00:35:28
head-to-heads. Will Texas Tech make the Big 12 title game? >> Well, I'm going to say no just because
00:35:34
uh it's like 16 teams and they all have exactly the same chance in that stupid
00:35:37
conference. It's my favorite conference by far because just flip the standings
00:35:41
from year to year. They are going to be good though. Uh they the biggest issue with them is, you know, I think they're
00:35:47
projected to improve as much as just about anybody in SP plus, but they started in the 40s uh because they were
00:35:53
super lucky last season. They should have probably won as many games they didn't. They didn't win a ton of games.
00:35:57
So, um, they got a lot to approve and I don't really trust there are a lot of
00:36:01
good quarterbacks in that conference and Baron Morton. I don't trust him as much
00:36:05
as I trust some others. So, I'm going to I was going to say no to anybody you
00:36:08
said in the Big 12, but I I'm definitely going to say no to Texas Tech. >> Okay. So, you're a little short. They
00:36:14
acquired more talent than anybody and they they paid as much as we've seen anybody pay. What's your position in
00:36:19
general on whether you can build teams that way? Do do it's like are to what
00:36:25
extent is the sum the whole greater than the sum of the parts or less than the sum of the parts? Is it different from
00:36:30
the sum of the parts? >> Well, I tend to root for usurpers. So, I'm not you know, even though I don't
00:36:34
like the impact money plays in a lot of ways, it's there's a lot of old money in
00:36:38
college football that has driven decisions and uh for a very long time. So, anybody trying to upend that, I'm
00:36:43
not going to really complain. I do think it'll be I think it would be very interesting to see how certain powerful
00:36:49
entities responded if Texas Tech really did basically buy a bunch of five stars and suddenly have an elite team and um
00:36:57
you know beat a couple of of blue blood schools. I think that'd be probably in
00:37:01
the end pretty good for the sport, but I don't it'd be interesting. I I don't
00:37:04
think it'll happen, but it'd be interesting. >> Right. Bill, maybe to tie our first
00:37:08
conversation with you about tennis to this. Is the current college football season to you more like men's tennis or
00:37:14
women's tennis? Do we have basically two teams that can win it or do you see 10
00:37:19
to 12 teams? Here's the thing. I we I'll ask you in a different way, but the same
00:37:23
question. Bill Connley gets to pick X teams. I get the rest of the teams and you're going to make it a fair bet. How
00:37:31
many teams is Bill Connley picking? >> Well, that's historically you're looking
00:37:34
at like three or four. Um, you know, we had the Alabama run, we had the Georgia run, uh, right after the Alabama run,
00:37:41
like didn't take much. And I think there it's unquestionable that at the top of
00:37:45
the sport right now, the talent's been a little more spread out. Like, I see
00:37:49
probably at least I think the top six or seven are in a tier by themselves, not six or seven. That's already six or
00:37:56
seven that I can't really decide between. And all of them have pretty big question marks either in terms of
00:38:01
ceiling or floor. Like I realized, you know, somebody asked me, you know, is Texas really number one? Are they
00:38:06
overrated? And I realized I was going to say whoever would was number one was overrated because it feels like we have
00:38:10
a bunch of threes and fours. And that's great. I think that's, you know, that
00:38:14
makes for a really really fun title race. I when I talk about competitive balance that I'm worried about, it's the
00:38:19
it's the power conferences are really the two conferences trying to distance
00:38:23
themselves from everybody else. But there's no question that, you know, if we have a 12 team tournament at the end
00:38:28
of this, like right now, I I would say I would need at least like six to feel comfortable that I have the winner.
00:38:33
>> Let me ask you a related question to that. Do you think there's enough data
00:38:37
>> that when we have you on at the end of the season, so let's say the 12 team
00:38:40
bracket is now set? >> Yeah. >> And I say to you, Bill, >> how many teams can win this? Do you
00:38:46
think the data from the regular season will differentiate them enough because of the number of really high leverage
00:38:52
games each team plays? Or are we going to say, Bill's going to say, didn't I I
00:38:56
tell you guys on August the 12th that there's still a half a dozen teams that
00:38:59
can really win this thing? >> Well, I think wherever we draw that line, six teams, seven, eight teams,
00:39:03
whatever, half of them are going to turn out to have awesome quarterbacks. So, I
00:39:07
do think at the end of the season, we'll know we'll know which ones are awesome
00:39:10
and that'll make uh the decision a little bit easier. That's what has made
00:39:14
talking about this uh season pretty fun is that so many of them have new quarterbacks and they're inevitably high
00:39:20
upside guys. But number one, most of them run around too much and get hit a lot and some of them aren't that's not
00:39:26
going to work out very well. So yeah, by the end of the year we're going to know
00:39:29
who the elite quarterbacks are and that'll make the decision a little easier, I think.
00:39:33
>> But I do think that the short answer to Eric's question is that this is the most
00:39:36
women's tennisish college football seasons we've had in a long time. in a
00:39:40
real long time. And well, I think it's intriguing to think about your second
00:39:45
question to wonder to what extent will it still feel that way at the end of the year, but I bet it does. My money says
00:39:50
that it will. Okay, three final questions. First two are coaches. Who has a better chance of getting their
00:39:55
program back to the glory days, Lincoln Riley or Brent Venable? Um, well, neither is probably the right
00:40:03
answer, but uh I I I guess venables if only because he he did get the defense back on track
00:40:10
last year and this whole gambit where you just kind of transplant uh you know, in this case bringing in Washington
00:40:16
State's offensive coordinator and quarterback, assuming nothing becomes of this gambling thing that just popped up
00:40:20
about John Matier, which we'll see that's in the early stages. Um, you know, maybe you it wouldn't be hard to
00:40:28
envision that offense clicking and then suddenly having a top 10 or 15 team again. Lick Riley is really funny. I in
00:40:33
my Big 10 preview I wrote like if you just kind of look at what he did, he registered a ton of guys last year. He
00:40:38
didn't make a panic buy with a quarterback in the portal this year and and he's signing a great recruiting
00:40:43
class for next year or you know not signing but he has a bunch of really good commitments. kind of feels like
00:40:48
he's building for 2026. I don't know if the marriage there is going to be healthy enough in 2026 for him to
00:40:57
still, you know, it wouldn't surprise me if he kind of left be via kind of mutual
00:41:02
consent after this year if it doesn't if it's another seven and six years. So,
00:41:06
yeah, I I right now I trust Venibles more, but I don't really trust either one.
00:41:11
>> All right, reasonable second coaching question. Seventh out of the eight
00:41:15
lightning round questions. Will Brian Kelly ever win a national championship at LSU?
00:41:19
>> Uh, I mean, sure, possibly, but probably not. No. Um, it really, every year
00:41:25
though, we talk, it's so easy to talk yourself into LSU because inevitably they had a good offense last year and
00:41:30
this year they're going to, you know, Nusmeer's a a solid a very solid quarterback. They're going to have good
00:41:35
receivers and all that. Uh, and the defense always has athletes. He, you know, he has two dynamic linebackers,
00:41:41
both coming off big injuries, so we'll see. And then he went out and got like
00:41:44
every defensive end of the portal. So, um, it could click it. You know, it's
00:41:50
they're not that far away, but at this point, it's kind of up to him to prove
00:41:53
it. He's he's been given the benefit of the doubt a lot. I think >> I'm going to I'm going to make it a
00:41:58
little bit harder and ask what probability because he'll run out of time at some point. LSU is not known for
00:42:02
patience with their head coaches. And as Feldman is always saying, the last three
00:42:06
coaches there won national championships. So, what probability? >> Not great because even if they peak, you
00:42:10
still have to deal with Ohio State. you still have to deal with uh well deal with you have to beat like three out of
00:42:17
Ohio State, a couple whichever elite SEC teams and just a whole bunch like you're
00:42:22
going to have to win three really hard games at the end of the year and I just don't think we're going to say we'll say
00:42:28
12%. >> Okay. Okay. Okay. So, I think I know how you're gonna answer this last question
00:42:36
because you've been giving this statistically wise answer to all these questions. You're forced to bet against
00:42:41
the line on Texas Ohio State week one. The line is two and a half. Ohio State by two and a half.
00:42:47
>> I'm fascinated by this game. I I I'm I can't get a read on either team. Um but
00:42:53
I I think I think SP Plus is going to say what uh Ohio State by like five or so. And I think they have like a two or
00:43:02
three point advantage in that home field as well. Um, I guess I lean in that direction, but I'm I'm not I'm not
00:43:09
betting on this game. Like I I really I love that Ohio State and Texas are playing and I love that Clemson and LSU
00:43:14
are playing in first week because those are four teams that I just need to see before I I trust any impression I have.
00:43:20
>> Do you think there is a learnable pattern in data, Bill, from I don't even
00:43:24
know if this is true. If Ryan Day or Steve Sarkeesian is like, let's imagine
00:43:29
I told you their records over the last 15 years. Is one of them a slow starting team? like do you believe in
00:43:34
non-stationerity during the season and is one of them predictable in some way that might move the odds a little bit?
00:43:41
>> Yeah, it's it's so hard with you know because the seasons are short and
00:43:45
context is heavy and like Ohio State was terrible at the end of 2023 but part of
00:43:49
that was because the stakes you know they they missed the playoff and then their quarterback didn't play against
00:43:54
Missouri in the Cotton Bowl and blah blah blah. Like it's really hard to Brian Kelly always slow started at LSU.
00:44:02
Is that really is there a cause to that or is that just complete randomness because he did it like three times? I I
00:44:07
So I never I never get very far. There might be a signal somewhere in there, but I've never found it. I've never
00:44:13
>> Of those four teams you named, the least proven quarterback is Ohio State. And
00:44:18
that's a that's a red shirt freshman. And you'd expect I mean Arch is just a
00:44:22
red shirt sophomore, right? But >> Nus Byer and Kubnik, they're not going
00:44:27
to change that much over the course of the season. Manning will change some. And then Julian Sam probably going to
00:44:31
change a fair bit over the course of the season. Longhorns are happy to catch Ohio State week one for exactly that.
00:44:37
>> Yeah. And San was almost as highly touted as Arch. Um really really highly
00:44:42
touted quarterback, but yeah, we just haven't seen anything from him. And Arch, we got this Well, first of all,
00:44:47
Arch came out and and had like the best uh small sample performance of all time against UTSA last year with like two
00:44:54
long touchdown passes and a long touchdown run and was unbelievable. and then got baited into mistakes by
00:44:59
Louisiana Monroe the next week. So, you know, I it's I get that people are kind
00:45:06
of assuming that he's gonna carry them and be number one. And it wouldn't
00:45:09
surprise me at all if it happened, but he bars really high. I I went back and looked. I'm going to either write about
00:45:15
this or just stick it in my week one preview, but the only person who's ever
00:45:18
been a betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy with a smaller resume than Arch Manning was Tua after he threw the
00:45:25
touchdown pass to win the national title the year before. Um, and that's it. Like
00:45:29
that's the only he has 900 career passing yards and he's the Heisman favorite. It's it's pretty wild and it's
00:45:34
kind of unfounded territory here. >> Well, it's going to be fun. We'll learn
00:45:37
a lot soon. All right. Give us something that you think the consensus that's it
00:45:41
for the lightning round. not not so lightning round. What is one thing you think consensus
00:45:46
is getting wrong about college football in 2025 >> this season this season? Where's Where
00:45:52
are you contrarian, Bill? >> Well, I mean I'm obviously a Clemson contrarian. Um like I do think that's
00:45:59
something and I I Clemson fans have been on me all off seasonason about it. Like
00:46:03
I don't I I think you guys are the ACC favorite. I think you're going to be
00:46:06
good. I just don't understand how and and it was weird too. We used to have these ball bumps where like Gino Smith
00:46:11
would throw for 500 yards in the in the Orange Bowl and then they'd be like a
00:46:14
top five team the next year because of it. Um Kate Clubick in like they were a two touchdown underdog against Texas in
00:46:22
the in the college football playoff last year. They lost by two touchdowns, but he completed like three long passes in
00:46:29
the process. They're like, "Oh, that's it. That's it. That's they're going to
00:46:31
have a lead offense again next year." And they might. >> But Clemson doesn't It's such a
00:46:37
conservative offense. I need to see him if he throws downfield twice in the first quarter against LSU. I I'm much
00:46:45
closer to being in. I need to see that that Davos is actually going to let him >> wing the ball around like he had to
00:46:51
because they were trailing against Texas as well. So, they had to throw the ball
00:46:55
downfield. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. But I got to ask you one question. Clubnick or Nesus? If you had to pick
00:47:02
take one, who would you want as your QV? >> I'm going clubnick. I I I didn't see it.
00:47:08
I didn't think of it either. >> He might be the better quarterback. I like LSU's offensive structure more like
00:47:13
that that will produce big plays and I don't trust the Clemson. Well, but I guess I guess club
00:47:17
>> of course. Yeah. Yeah. >> All right. Listen, we got to let you go.
00:47:20
That's a long run with you and um we'll talk with you later in the season, but
00:47:25
thanks for the time, Bill. Um wish you the best getting the season off. You said at the top of the show that you
00:47:30
only in the last day or two felt ready for it, so congrats on that and enjoy the last two and a half weeks as we run
00:47:35
into this thing. and we'll talk with you down the road. Bill Connley, creator of SP Plus, writer
00:47:42
at ESPN, uh originally with the Football Outsiders, and author of a new book. He's got other books, and they're
00:47:48
worthy, but there's a brand new one coming out, Forward Progress. Pre-order now. Welcome back to Wharton Moneyball.
00:47:54
Welcome to the second half of this week's show. The first half was more than a half, so the second half's going
00:47:59
to be a little bit less of one, but it's uh our college football preview show of
00:48:04
sorts with some tennis thrown in for uh for good measure. And um we've got other
00:48:10
sports to talk about now. We they are going on. It's not all eclipsed by football. And we'll have a chance to
00:48:16
talk more about football over the next couple of weeks. We've got I think Steven Godfrey coming in. Do more
00:48:20
college football next week. We'll do a pro football preview with Brian Burke in
00:48:24
a couple of weeks. So, it's on our mind and now it's um in increasingly on our
00:48:28
screens. We'll come back to it. In the meantime, gentlemen, uh we got some baseball. Before we get baseball, golf
00:48:36
is winding up their season. They're trying to figure out how to make it more
00:48:39
dramatic. They've got three tournaments here at the end. They whittle the field
00:48:42
from se top 75 play the first tournament, then the top 50, then finally the top 30. And we had a
00:48:49
dramatic fun Justin Rose victory in the first of these three tournaments. What? How old? 43 43 years old.
00:48:56
>> I think he's 45. I know he's 44 or 45. >> All right. >> And yeah, I mean,
00:49:00
>> gota gota pull for that guy always. >> Yeah. I mean, he's been playing
00:49:04
extremely well lately and um you know, I think that's the nice thing about golf.
00:49:10
Will Justin Rose compete and be at the top every week? No. But guys can get locked in at golf for short periods of
00:49:17
time and he looks incredibly fit. He's, you know, it's usually the putter that
00:49:21
lets you down at that age. the guy's putting well and um you know this is a big tournament to win. You know there's
00:49:29
well you guys may remember the the year that Tiger won the last tournament won the FedEx
00:49:36
playoffs actually Justin Rose won the overall playoffs but Tiger won the last event of the season which was the top 30
00:49:45
championship that Kade talks about. So Justin Rose first of all you know he's
00:49:49
going to play well at the RDER Cup. you know that for a fact. So, he's clearly
00:49:54
geared up for the end of the season. I thought it was an exciting win. I I thought the other thing that was
00:49:58
interesting is, you know, all of a sudden this guy that won the US Open, who I had never really heard of, was it
00:50:03
JJ Spawn or whatever, >> he was the one that he beat in the playoff, like this guy's coming in top
00:50:09
five, top 10, like at every tournament right now. And this backs to what Kate has said, the guy's been locked in for
00:50:15
like 10 weeks now. And this can make a career. I'm not saying he's in the Hall
00:50:20
of Fame yet, but the guy's on tour now for the next 10 years. And you know, he's probably won, I don't know, 8 to10
00:50:27
million dollars in the last 10 weeks. And uh it's just and he's now on the
00:50:32
he's clinched the Ryder Cup spot. If I had told you 10 weeks ago, JJ Spawn is
00:50:37
on the US RDER Cup team. You're like, who? >> Yeah, >> he's on the Ryder Cup team.
00:50:41
>> Well, let's hope his his regime shift that he's been riding for the last
00:50:45
couple of months will continue. And the other thing to mention also just quickly
00:50:48
again, >> you know, Tommy Fleetwood second again, and we talked about this a
00:50:56
couple weeks ago. I think this is now I don't know if it's nine or 10 second
00:50:59
place finishes. This guy's never won on the US tour. And we're getting to a
00:51:05
point where, you know, there is some, you have to call it a carryover effect or something that even if he's in that
00:51:14
final group, his odds are much worse than one over n where n is the number of players. It just has to be psychological
00:51:21
at this point. It has to be. >> It would it would be realistic. It'd be
00:51:24
understandable if it is even. By the way, u our friend Rufus Peabody who does a lot of golf an analytics and betting
00:51:32
finds that there is a measurable um uh pressure effect that players are play worse in the league and in general
00:51:41
like the very best of them don't but like that that's the exception. Everybody else generally plays worse
00:51:46
when they're in the lead. Um which is an interesting observation. >> And also just one last golf thing um our
00:51:52
boy Texas Mr. Texas. Scotty Sheffller has not been worse than eighth place in 12 straight tournaments.
00:52:00
>> I mean, we talk about volatility. >> We talk about volatility in golf and
00:52:04
when you see a guy who seems immune to it is and immune to it at the top, you know, it's high mean and low volatility,
00:52:10
it's just really remarkable. Okay, we've only got a few minutes and let me put it
00:52:13
to you this way. I've been away from the show for a couple weeks. I've been away
00:52:17
from civilization for a couple of weeks. I may not have paid as much attention to
00:52:21
baseball as I should. If I need to know just a few things about what's going on
00:52:23
in baseball right now, what do you think those few things are? >> Well, I've got one kind of interesting
00:52:28
observation. I mean, one thing about this season, offense is up. Offense is up, I think, or or at least I have one
00:52:35
anecdotal evidence that the offense is up. We have not yet had no hitter this year.
00:52:40
>> And usually there's like four or we've been averaging four or five of those a
00:52:43
season >> for the last few years. So like there's no Yeah, basically offense is up is one
00:52:50
thing you can kind of take in which you know is exciting and we can you know obviously talk about what's kind of
00:52:55
driving driving that particular uh uh thing but uh and the other kind of part of that is that we talked a few weeks
00:53:03
ago about the fact that there was five players on pace for over 50 home runs this year. They're still all five of
00:53:09
them on pace for over 50 home runs. >> They're still on pace still on pace even
00:53:13
though of injuries. I guess he must be just at 50. >> Yes, Judge is still on p. I mean Jud
00:53:17
Judge Judge is falling off. He's actually I think the one with the the best p the shortest pace now. Actually
00:53:23
Suarez is but like Yeah. I mean actually Judge and Sorber are still on pace for the same number of home runs this year
00:53:29
even with Judge's recent entries. >> And Raleigh is up to 45 or something.
00:53:33
>> 45 at least. As of I didn't see last night but as of the night before he was
00:53:37
at 45. Okay. >> Yeah. When I calculated out a couple days ago he was on pace for like 62 home
00:53:42
runs. >> Oh my goodness. Go rally. Here we go. Okay. Give me What else do I need to
00:53:45
know? What else do I need to know? >> To me, uh, you know, the team that has
00:53:49
surprised me the most is the Brewers. I mean, I put it in the rundown. They're
00:53:53
the only team in baseball, only team above 600. And it's not close. Their record is 74 and 44.
00:54:04
And their preeason was 83 and a half. >> Their expectation preseason. >> Expectation for the preseason. So I mean
00:54:14
that they're probably not it's not guaranteed they're targeting a hundred
00:54:19
easy that's way above the expectation. >> Okay. So so hold on give me give me
00:54:23
let's take it down a level like Pythagorean let's go Bill James. What would their are they outperforming or
00:54:29
they outwinning their run performance? How does do we know anything about that? >> I I hadn't looked at that. I had saw
00:54:35
that the Yankees are the team I did compute the Yankees are the team who has the worst performance on Pythagorean. In
00:54:42
other words, they have the number one run differential, for example, in the American League and the sixth best
00:54:47
record. >> But going back to the Brewers, I think I mean I I'm it is surprising probably
00:54:52
that they're the best team in baseball. It is not that surprising that they're a
00:54:55
good team. I mean I I think I was watching a Brewers game the other night and they mentioned that Christian Yelch,
00:55:00
who's been played there for like eight years now, they've gone to the playoffs
00:55:03
seven out of the eight years. He's been there. >> That's impressive.
00:55:06
>> That's pretty amazing for like any baseball team. I mean, other than maybe
00:55:10
some of the ones that are kind of in there, you know, usually. Uh that's that's amazing for any kind of mid
00:55:16
payroll, like kind of mid-market baseball team, I think. And so I think it really to the extent that like
00:55:22
there's something systematic going on in Milwaukee uh with their especially on
00:55:26
the pitching side. They seem to be able to produce out of their development system both relief and starters like
00:55:32
just ace after ace like you know like elite closer after elite closer. So and they've done it you know over over many
00:55:40
kind of runs now. So, I I I think you know, whoever's in charge of pitching there, um hopefully makes
00:55:46
>> something right. Shane, a couple weeks ago or a few weeks ago now, we were
00:55:49
talking about the Brewers, and you were like, "Yeah, yeah, I'm not going to buy
00:55:52
any Central Division team in either league until I see something else." Is it different for you now? Are they Are
00:55:58
they >> No. Well, no. I I mean, that's one thing. I mean, seven out of seven out of
00:56:03
the eight years that you seven out of last eight years they've made the playoffs, have they have you heard of
00:56:09
them in the World Series? Yeah. No. >> By the way, Kate, I just >> Have you heard of them even the Did they
00:56:13
make the conference? I I mean, they're kind of seven out of the eight. They're
00:56:16
always in the playoffs, but they've been kind of pretty consistently one and
00:56:19
done. >> I'm here to deliver stats for you live, Kade. By the way, the Brewers Pagarian
00:56:24
win percentage >> 0.629. Their actual win percentage 0.627. >> Look at that. Look at that. So, it's not
00:56:32
that they're outperforming their run right there. They're they're matching.
00:56:36
>> That's a mark of a truly elite team that they hit their Pythagorean.
00:56:41
average. Right on. No, I mean that it is interesting because you know it's kind
00:56:44
of like you know I think on paper like you know just in terms of player like like probably the preseason rankings
00:56:49
that do the kind of sum of the war the player you know that try and build up teams from their component parks
00:56:54
probably constantly underestimate the Brewers because there seems to be like you know all these like new guys always
00:56:59
coming out of the system to fill in the losses. They I mean >> let me the other thing that caught my
00:57:03
say one other thing Kate about baseball. The Dodgers right now have the fourth best record in the National League, yet
00:57:10
they're by far still the betting favorite for the National League to go to the World Series. So, that to me is
00:57:17
just interesting. And, you know, you've always talked about how long how much
00:57:20
weight do we put on prior and how much when do we start, you know, when do prior start to have less and less
00:57:25
weight? It has to be prior related because there's nothing right now. Right now, there's still 40 games to go
00:57:31
roughly. There's nothing right now that suggests that they're better than the
00:57:34
Brewers or the Phillies or the Cubs or even possibly the Padres's in their own
00:57:38
division that would suggest that they're they should be plus 250 and these other
00:57:42
teams are plus a thousand. It just there's nothing in the data right now. >> I think that's just name familiarity at
00:57:48
this early part of the proceedings with betting. I don't know how much that's
00:57:52
that's a thing, but like you know probably the Yankees like are still like you know a higher bet than they
00:57:57
otherwise would be >> for sure. Um, >> so one one it is interesting and and I
00:58:02
mean the expectations were so high coming in and so I I guess that to some extent could make sense, but I'd be
00:58:07
curious to push into that deeper to know what the implied weight is and whether there's any rationality to that.
00:58:13
>> Um, okay, last question on baseball. Y'all noted somewhere that in the AL
00:58:19
it's uh Guardians, Yankees, and Red Sox all within a game or two of each other
00:58:23
for two of the three final. So, if you had to pick, which team of those three would not make the two wild card spots,
00:58:31
who do you least believe among those three? Yankees, Guardians, and Red Sox? Of course, I'm talking to a Yankee and a
00:58:38
Red Sox fan, and I'll take the Guardians. I'm always pulling for the Guardians. So, who who's going to be
00:58:42
disappointed here at the end of the year? >> I don't think the I think the Yankees
00:58:46
have not played their best baseball in the last 50 games. I think they'll get
00:58:50
their act together enough to make one of the wild card spots. I don't know enough
00:58:54
about Boston or or the Guardians. If I had to say which one would be out, I'd
00:58:58
say Boston. >> Yeah. I mean, I I I kind of I I I unfortunately I have to agree with my
00:59:03
friend and colleague Eric on this one. I I think the Yankees are the ones most likely to kind of make a run just
00:59:10
because they've been playing so horribly to get into that like wild card business. They were like six, seven
00:59:15
games up on the division not that long ago. So, they're they're kind of, I
00:59:19
guess, due for a little bit of a regression back up to their standard. Um, and that's bad news for the Reds.
00:59:26
That's bad news for some like another division team that has to play them a lot still to come. Okay.
00:59:31
>> And you know, so I think, you know, it's going to be very hard for two out of
00:59:34
those three >> teams to to come out this. It it happened last year that two two Central
00:59:38
teams both made wild ball cards. But >> yeah, but talk about a good parsimmonious answer. So you got to take
00:59:44
one out of the one division and take the team that's not playing the other two.
00:59:47
That's very very good. Shame. Okay guys, why don't we wrap it there, call it a
00:59:52
week. We'll come back and do this again next time. For the whole team here, Eric
00:59:55
Bradlo, my colleague, collaborator, longtime co-host. Shane Jensen, same thing. Audi Wider and Absentia for Dion
01:00:02
Simpkins, the boss man. D Patel running this show for the hire. She's a big executive running things for behind the
01:00:08
scenes. D, we depend on D and Dion. Many thanks to those guys. Many thanks to y'all for listening. Come back and join
01:00:14
us next time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports. [Music]