Search Captions & Ask AI

Why Are Birth Rates Declining?

July 16, 2024 / 21:07

This episode features Stew Friedman, author of Baby Bust: New Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family, discussing the changing dynamics of family planning and work-life integration.

Friedman highlights findings from a longitudinal study comparing generational attitudes towards parenthood, revealing a significant decline in the desire to have children from 1992 to 2012, with only 42% of young adults planning to have children.

The conversation addresses the impact of the pandemic on work-life balance, emphasizing how remote work has altered perceptions of family and career roles.

Friedman also discusses the need for policy changes to support childcare and family leave, noting that while some progress is being made at local levels, the U.S. still lags behind other countries.

Listeners are encouraged to consider how these societal shifts affect personal choices and the importance of creating supportive environments for families.

TL;DR

Stew Friedman discusses declining birth rates and evolving family planning choices in relation to work-life integration and societal changes.

Episode

21:07
00:00:00
Friedman: So once we saw that there was this huge gap that was the same
00:00:05
for men and women in terms of their plans for whether or not
00:00:09
they were going to have children we looked into, why is this? And
00:00:14
how is it different, if it is, for men and women? And indeed, for
00:00:17
women the drivers had more to do with their increased interest
00:00:26
in providing help to other people through their careers.
00:00:31
And also in their networks of friendships. That these were in
00:00:35
some ways playing a more important role
00:00:39
in their identities.
00:00:42
Loney: And welcome to a special edition of <i>The Ripple</i>
00:00:44
<i>Effect: Meet the Authors</i>. I'm your host, Dan Loney. In each
00:00:48
episode this month, the podcast will feature Wharton faculty
00:00:51
authors in lively, fast-moving conversations about their latest
00:00:55
books and research. We're going to be covering a diverse range
00:00:58
of topics, bringing you the latest insights and knowledge
00:01:02
that you can apply to your life and to work.
00:01:05
Well. The decision
00:01:06
to start a family has been one that's become more challenging
00:01:09
in the last decade or so, as younger generations are
00:01:12
considering what is best for their lives at the moment. And
00:01:15
with the birth rate on the decline, what are the
00:01:18
discussions going on around the potential impacts of these
00:01:22
decisions? Pleasure to be joined here in studio as part of our
00:01:25
summer author series by Stew Friedman, who is Founding
00:01:28
Director of the Work/Life Integration Project here at the
00:01:31
Wharton School. He is also author of the book <i>Baby Bust:</i>
00:01:34
<i>New Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family</i>. It's been too
00:01:39
long since we've had a chance to chat.
00:01:41
Stew, great to talk to you again.
00:01:42
Friedman: Dan, thanks so much for having me.
00:01:43
Really appreciate being here.
00:01:44
And so this book is a 10th anniversary edition. And so
00:01:48
let's start there, with obviously the importance of
00:01:51
doing the first edition. But why you think it's so important to
00:01:54
bring it back now?
00:01:56
Well, the first edition, 2012-2013, was based on the
00:02:02
findings of a study we did here at the Wharton School, the
00:02:06
Wharton Work/Life Integration Project, which I founded in
00:02:08
1991. One of the things we did with that project was to start
00:02:12
to survey Wharton students and alumni in depth as to their
00:02:18
values, beliefs, hopes, and aspirations for their careers
00:02:22
and for the rest of their lives. And we had the opportunity in
00:02:25
2012 to compare the responses of people from the class of
00:02:31
1990, Gen Xers, with the Millennials, the class of
00:02:37
2012. So we had a true longitudinal comparison of 22-
00:02:42
year-olds, both graduating from the same place, as opposed to a
00:02:47
lot of the other studies that compare generations that ask
00:02:51
22-year-olds a set of questions, and then they ask 42-year-olds
00:02:54
a set of questions, when what you're getting there has a lot
00:02:57
to do with the difference between being 22 and being 42.
00:03:00
Here, we had a true cross- generational study, which was
00:03:04
unique. And what was so startling about my initial take
00:03:10
on what we saw in our data— this is hundreds and hundreds of
00:03:14
people from both classes, men and women— was the response to
00:03:19
the question, do you plan to have or adopt children? "Yes",
00:03:23
"probably", "not sure", "probably not", and "no", were the response
00:03:26
alternatives. And in 1992, it was 78-79% "probably" or "yes", for
00:03:32
men and women. And in 2012, it was 42%.
00:03:39
- Significant difference. - Well, staggering.
00:03:42
And I just thought, "No, that can't be right." But it was. - Yeah.
00:03:46
So— so that became the central focus of this cross-generational
00:03:50
study. Why is this? And so that's what we were exploring in
00:03:56
the initial— the initial monograph for the book about—
00:04:01
the different generations and why men— and the different
00:04:04
reasons for why men and women were less likely to plan to have
00:04:08
or adopt kids. Well, ten years later, the Wharton Press
00:04:15
thought, "Well, let's look at this again, because this issue
00:04:18
has just gotten bigger, right?" With respect to how people think
00:04:23
about working the rest of their lives, and particularly about
00:04:26
the care and— creation and care of the next generation. So much
00:04:33
had happened in the intervening decade, including and especially
00:04:38
the pandemic. But also huge economic shifts, changes in
00:04:44
attitudes particularly about religion. And so we produced
00:04:52
a new version that had an update, that has an update, with
00:04:56
respect to how— how things have changed, with a special focus on
00:05:01
how the the means by which work and life fit together is now
00:05:08
radically different. Not only because of people working from
00:05:11
home more often as a result of the humongous jolt that the
00:05:17
pandemic brought, but also the digital revolution and the
00:05:19
tools we have now to be able to communicate anywhere, anytime,
00:05:22
and how that has changed how people experience the
00:05:27
relationship between work and family life. - Yeah, and
00:05:30
obviously, part of this also plays into the work that you've
00:05:33
done around just thinking about work/life balance, and how
00:05:37
people try and do this in what has become an ever-increasing
00:05:44
level of stuff that we have in our lives. And the challenges of
00:05:49
trying to balance that, you know, and not fall off the
00:05:54
deep end into the deep end of the pool here.
00:05:57
Yeah, it's really— it's really tough now. And it's gotten
00:06:00
tougher. There are signs of hope that I observe just thinking
00:06:05
about the last decade, but also in the 2012-2013 version. The
00:06:11
main one being that young men and women are more alike now
00:06:15
than they were when we started this study 30 years ago, in
00:06:19
terms of their thinking about what a modern working parent
00:06:25
partnership looks like. - Right. - They're— they're more similar in
00:06:28
their attitudes. They've become closer in how they think about
00:06:34
what they would expect of their partners. So that's a good
00:06:41
thing. And it creates, you know, within a family, or a parenting
00:06:47
partnership, the ground for smarter choices, fairer choices.
00:06:53
But there's still so much— so much that needs to be done to
00:06:56
create change. And people are struggling for lots of different
00:07:01
reasons that have to do with social policy, organizational
00:07:05
practice, the capacities that individuals have to be able to
00:07:09
figure these very complex puzzles out. And, you know, on
00:07:15
all fronts, there are things that are happening that are
00:07:19
intended to make it easier for people who choose to become
00:07:23
parents to— to enable them to do that. To empower them to do
00:07:25
that. But there's also a lot of resistance on all fronts. So
00:07:31
it's an ongoing— it's an ongoing issue. And one that I think
00:07:36
there's just more and more expressed pain about. And so
00:07:40
it's become more of a national point of focus for both men and
00:07:45
women, and for grandparents too. I am now one. That's another thing
00:07:49
that's happened since. - Congratulations. - Thank you. Since—
00:07:52
since the first publication in 2012-2013, I've become a
00:07:56
grandparent. And so I have a new perspective personally on what
00:08:00
these issues mean. - And
00:08:02
so part of this I guess also is, as you said, with the
00:08:05
pandemic, obviously how people are dealing with their work, but
00:08:09
also how work is dealing with them, in being able to maybe work
00:08:14
with them a little bit better to understand some of these issues
00:08:17
that people are going through, so that they have more
00:08:19
flexibility to be able to work from home. And that's a dynamic
00:08:23
that you go back to 1992, we really didn't have a lot of that
00:08:27
in the mix.
00:08:28
No. But between '92 and 2012, we— we saw some shifts, as you know,
00:08:34
particularly as the digital revolution was— was upon us. And
00:08:39
people were figuring out how they could work more flexibly
00:08:42
because of that. For other reasons as well, as companies
00:08:45
were responding to an increasing demand by men and women to have
00:08:48
more flexibility. That voice was being expressed more. But the
00:08:51
pandemic just changed everything. As we started living
00:08:55
Zoom life and started to actually see on the screen, you
00:09:00
know, people and animals behind you as you're speaking, and
00:09:05
recognizing that the boundary between your work identity and
00:09:11
role and the other parts of your life, particularly in your home
00:09:13
life, was something that needed to be much more consciously
00:09:17
managed. But it also brought, as you say, Dan, the greater
00:09:20
recognition that, "Wow, there is this person's life, and I can see
00:09:25
it. So perhaps we as a company ought to be taking greater
00:09:29
account for that other part of life and to invest in employees'
00:09:34
capability and being able to manage the different dynamics,
00:09:38
intentions and boundaries so that they can be more fully
00:09:41
present when they are, you know, engaged in work— in work tasks.
00:09:45
And that's— and that's been happening. And that's a positive
00:09:47
trend. - What has this meant
00:09:49
then from a policy perspective, and how
00:09:52
entities beyond the corporate boardroom are thinking about
00:09:57
these components of— of social policy? - Well,
00:10:01
in the— in the concluding chapter of the book, I write about the
00:10:06
changes that I'm advancing based not only on my own views and
00:10:11
work as a policy advocate, and as an organizational consultant
00:10:14
practitioner and as a psychologist, and at the policy
00:10:18
level, what I was advocating for then and continue to is greater
00:10:26
investment in childcare, and in family leave. So those remain
00:10:32
issues that at the national level, we are stymied. But where
00:10:37
we're seeing real innovation and progress is at the state and
00:10:41
especially at the municipal level throughout the country, as
00:10:45
more and more municipalities and states are changing their
00:10:49
policies to provide greater support for family and medical
00:10:53
leave, as well as for childcare support of various kinds. But we
00:10:58
as a country remain woefully behind our peers and in the
00:11:04
international economy. And that is a source of, I think, shame,
00:11:08
really, as you think about what what makes for good society.
00:11:14
Well, it's one that cares for its most— its most needy, and
00:11:18
especially the next generation. And we're just not doing that
00:11:21
nearly enough. - So for countries
00:11:23
that are ahead of where our curve is right now,
00:11:27
how have they been able to advance it? And— and is it— has it
00:11:31
become— and I've wondered whether or not this is another one of
00:11:33
those areas where there's a component of public-private
00:11:37
partnership that may have to come together in order to be
00:11:41
able to break down that wall that seemingly has been there
00:11:44
for many decades.
00:11:45
Yeah. In fact, in 2000, when I was on leave from Wharton
00:11:50
serving as Head of Leadership Development for Ford Motor
00:11:52
Company, one of the things that we were able to organize here at
00:11:56
Wharton was a national conference on public-private
00:12:00
partnerships in providing for childcare. That's almost 25
00:12:04
years ago. And we're still— we're still not as nearly as far
00:12:10
as we need to be. But that is surely part of the solution. And
00:12:13
as I was saying earlier, many of the companies, the more
00:12:16
progressive companies, the ones that are tuned into the— these—
00:12:19
these aspects of the demands of a changing labor market,
00:12:23
they're innovating. So there's a lot of innovation happening at
00:12:26
the— at the organizational level, especially in the wake of the
00:12:29
pandemic, as— as, you know, experiments were just, you know,
00:12:34
flourishing everywhere in terms of new models for how you invest
00:12:39
in people's whole lives. But at the national level, I don't— I
00:12:43
don't see much hope for progress, frankly. And— and
00:12:46
we've got to look to, you know, to smaller units at state and
00:12:50
local levels, as well as in support of what private sector
00:12:56
companies, through tax advantages and other
00:12:59
investments, allow them to— to provide the kinds of support
00:13:03
that— that people need. So one of the reasons people are less
00:13:07
likely to want to have— to plan to have children now— and that
00:13:11
decline, by the way that we observed in 2012, from 1992 to
00:13:14
2012, has only gotten worse. - Right. - Since. Now, we haven't done
00:13:18
another follow up study. Maybe 2032, if I'm still around, we'll
00:13:22
do one. But— but you can look at lots of other data to see that
00:13:28
the fertility rate in the United States is declining still
00:13:31
further. - Right. - So, you know, money is a big part of that,
00:13:34
economics is a big part of that. But support for what families
00:13:39
need. And that has much to do with childcare, education,
00:13:43
investing more in education as a society, which is something that
00:13:46
we see in some of, you know, our partners in other parts of the
00:13:50
world. That— that we're just not investing enough. And so those
00:13:53
are some of the things that— that are on the horizon, we hope.
00:13:57
And then there is obviously
00:13:59
the downstream impact of having that
00:14:02
lower birth rate, fertility rate, of what it's going to mean for
00:14:06
the numbers of people in the population, of course, 20, 30
00:14:08
years down the road, and what that economic impact—
00:14:11
- Yeah. - That is going to be not only for our
00:14:13
economy, but for businesses as well.
00:14:16
Well, that's why companies that have a long-term vision are
00:14:19
concerned about this. But you know, most of the motivation for
00:14:25
businesses is near term, how do we attract the best and the
00:14:28
brightest? Well, we try to have policies and practices in
00:14:31
culture, that— that truly values the whole person. But yeah, you
00:14:36
know, economists have been studying birth rates for a long
00:14:39
time because you need people to replenish your economic engine.
00:14:45
And that's why it is such a such a pressing issue as you look,
00:14:49
you know, the strategic view of where our society is going.
00:14:53
One of the things that you talk about in the book is the
00:14:56
reasoning behind the idea of opting out of parenthood, and
00:15:00
the fact that in many instances, the reasons why it may differ
00:15:04
between what men think and what women think, right? - That's
00:15:08
right. That's right. So, once we saw that there was this huge gap,
00:15:14
that was the same for men and women in terms of their plans
00:15:19
for whether or not they were going to have children. I
00:15:21
looked into why is this, and how is it different, if it is, for men
00:15:26
and women. Indeed, for women, the drivers had more to do with
00:15:34
their increased interest in providing help to other people
00:15:39
through their careers, and also in their networks of
00:15:43
friendships. That these were in some ways playing a more
00:15:49
important role in their identities than was becoming a
00:15:55
mother. So— so that was an important shift. There was also
00:16:00
the reduced interest in religion. So the people who
00:16:07
identified as atheist or agnostic— women. This is for
00:16:12
women, not for men— the more likely they were— they were
00:16:17
likely to, they were going to say "No, that's not something
00:16:20
that I have to do, to become a mother." Because they were less
00:16:22
bound by traditional expectations for a woman's role
00:16:26
in society. For men, on the other hand, it had more to do
00:16:30
with money. Especially if you were a man, as a student, and
00:16:36
you have loans that you had to pay back. Now you were less
00:16:41
likely to think about having or planning to have children. But
00:16:47
they also anticipated greater conflict between their work and
00:16:51
family roles than the prior generation. Because as I said
00:16:54
earlier, they had— they were more likely to have views of
00:16:58
family life that were egalitarian in the sense that
00:17:01
both men and women were going to be playing equal partner roles
00:17:06
in making both their careers and their domestic organization
00:17:10
work. So they anticipated greater conflict. And when I
00:17:14
started to have discussions with students and alumni about these
00:17:19
results ten years ago, one of the things that I heard quite a
00:17:23
bit about was young men being afraid to become fathers,
00:17:28
because they thought that they might fail in the role. And they
00:17:30
were concerned about that, that that was another inhibitor that
00:17:33
we were hearing in discussions, because of their expectation of
00:17:37
greater conflict. - Right. - At the same time, we had people— there
00:17:42
was a student in one of my undergraduate classes, where I
00:17:46
began the class by asking people what their aspirations were for
00:17:50
their careers. And one of them, as we're going around, first day
00:17:54
of class said, "Well, my— my career aspiration is to be a
00:17:57
full-time dad." And of course, I nearly fell off my chair when I
00:18:02
heard that. This is about ten years ago. But you— you
00:18:05
definitely would not have heard that in 1992. - No. - So, you know,
00:18:09
that's just a little outcropping of how men are thinking
00:18:13
differently. They're not— you know, their father's father, in
00:18:16
terms of they don't think of themselves as necessarily the
00:18:19
ideal worker who is 100% available anytime, anywhere.
00:18:23
They want to have a greater impact in their families. But
00:18:28
because of that higher expectation for the domestic
00:18:31
role, less of them are choosing to invest in it. - Yeah. For
00:18:37
people that read the book, and obviously, knowing what we know
00:18:40
now, what is it that you hope that they take away from having
00:18:44
a chance to read <i>Baby Bust</i>?
00:18:47
Well, I think you'll get a— sort of an interior view, how people
00:18:52
think and feel about their lives and careers, that you don't get
00:18:56
from economic or sociological studies. Because this is not
00:18:59
just about employment. Am I going to work? Am I not going to
00:19:02
work? Am I going to have kids, am I not going to have kids? This
00:19:04
is the— you know, it digs deep into why people are thinking this
00:19:09
way. And what we can do to help people think about and find
00:19:13
creative ways to— to live the lives they truly want to live.
00:19:18
That's another note of optimism that I took from this
00:19:21
study and I still am holding on to. And that is that there's
00:19:25
greater freedom now for women and men to choose the roles they
00:19:30
want to play in life. - Yeah. - And so how we invest in that, so—
00:19:34
is an important part of the back part of the book, which is
00:19:38
implications for policy. Which we just touched on a bit. But
00:19:42
also, organizational practice. What can you do as a manager, as
00:19:45
an executive, as a CEO, to organize your company and to
00:19:50
promote certain values and practices that enable people to
00:19:54
live the lives they truly want to live? Whether that's becoming
00:19:57
parents or not. And there's also material there on what you as
00:20:03
an individual or as a family can do to— to become more
00:20:09
conscious of the choices that you've got available to you and
00:20:13
how to get support for taking those choices and making them
00:20:18
real, to craft the life that— that you want to live. And so I
00:20:23
hope that people will take both a better understanding of this
00:20:26
phenomenon, why it's important for our country, for our
00:20:29
businesses, but also to get some practical insights about what
00:20:32
they can do to try to promote positive change at the social
00:20:36
level, at the organizational level, and perhaps most
00:20:39
importantly, in their own lives and families.
00:20:41
Great to see you again.
00:20:43
Thanks for coming in.
00:20:43
Well, thanks for having me, Dan.
00:20:45
Absolutely. Stew Friedman. The book is titled <i>Baby Bust: New</i>
00:20:48
<i>Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family</i>.
00:20:52
- Thank you for listening to <i>The Ripple Effect</i>.
00:20:54
We hope you found this episode
00:20:55
informative and engaging. Don't forget to subscribe and leave us
00:20:59
a review so that we can continue to bring you the best insight
00:21:02
from the Wharton School.

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 60
    Most shocking
  • 60
    Best concept / idea

Episode Highlights

  • The Decline of Birth Rates
    Birth rates have significantly declined, with only 42% planning to have children in 2012.
    “In 1992, it was 78-79% 'probably' or 'yes'.”
    @ 03m 39s
    July 16, 2024
  • Changing Perspectives on Parenthood
    Men and women are increasingly aligned in their views on parenting roles.
    “Young men and women are more alike now than they were 30 years ago.”
    @ 06m 15s
    July 16, 2024
  • Policy and Support for Families
    Advocating for greater investment in childcare and family leave at the national level.
    “We're just not doing that nearly enough.”
    @ 11m 21s
    July 16, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • The decision to start a family has become more challenging.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
  • Young men and women are more alike now than they were 30 years ago.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
  • There's greater freedom now for women and men to choose their roles in life.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?

Key Moments

  • Family Planning Challenges01:05
  • Changing Attitudes06:15
  • Policy Advocacy11:21

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Related Episodes

Why Are Millennials Not Having Kids? with Stew Friedman, Author of Baby Bust
March 12, 2024
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
26:38
Why Are Millennials Not Having Kids? with Stew Friedman, Author of Baby Bust
New Work and Family Choices for Men and Women
October 31, 2013
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
24:03
New Work and Family Choices for Men and Women
Why Women Still Can’t “Have It All” — The Data on Work, Family, and Housework
October 13, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
17:47
Why Women Still Can’t “Have It All” — The Data on Work, Family, and Housework
Why Supporting Employees Holistically Boosts Productivity
May 27, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
15:41
Why Supporting Employees Holistically Boosts Productivity
Women & Work: Does Your Biological Clock Have a Price? | Corinne Low – Ripple Effect Podcast
March 07, 2023
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
21:34
Women & Work: Does Your Biological Clock Have a Price? | Corinne Low – Ripple Effect Podcast
Redefining Retirement: Building a Meaningful Life Beyond Your Career
April 29, 2025
Captions not detected. You can watch the video, but not search it. If you think this is an error, contact support.
15:38
Redefining Retirement: Building a Meaningful Life Beyond Your Career