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Why Are Birth Rates Declining?

July 16, 2024 / 21:07

This episode features a discussion on family planning trends, work-life balance, and societal shifts with Stew Friedman, author of Baby Bust: New Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family.

Dan Loney hosts the conversation, focusing on the decline in birth rates and the changing attitudes towards parenthood among younger generations. Friedman highlights findings from a longitudinal study comparing responses from Wharton graduates of 1990 and 2012, revealing a significant drop in the intention to have children.

Friedman explains that women are increasingly prioritizing career and social connections over motherhood, while men express concerns about financial stability and work-family conflict. He notes the impact of the pandemic on work-life dynamics and the need for better support systems.

The episode also addresses policy implications, emphasizing the importance of childcare and family leave. Friedman advocates for local and state-level innovations to support families, contrasting them with the lack of national progress.

Listeners gain insights into the evolving roles of men and women in family planning and the broader societal implications of declining birth rates.

TLDR

Stew Friedman discusses declining birth rates and changing family planning attitudes in modern society.

Episode

21:07
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Friedman: So once we saw that there was this huge gap that was the same for men and women in terms of their plans for whether or not
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they were going to have children we looked into, why is this? And how is it different, if it is, for men and women? And indeed, for
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women the drivers had more to do with their increased interest in providing help to other people through their careers.
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And also in their networks of friendships. That these were in some ways playing a more important role
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in their identities. Loney: And welcome to a special edition of <i>The Ripple</i>
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<i>Effect: Meet the Authors</i>. I'm your host, Dan Loney. In each
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episode this month, the podcast will feature Wharton faculty authors in lively, fast-moving conversations about their latest
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books and research. We're going to be covering a diverse range of topics, bringing you the latest insights and knowledge
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that you can apply to your life and to work. Well. The decision to start a family has been one that's become more challenging
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in the last decade or so, as younger generations are considering what is best for their lives at the moment. And
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with the birth rate on the decline, what are the discussions going on around the potential impacts of these
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decisions? Pleasure to be joined here in studio as part of our summer author series by Stew Friedman, who is Founding
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Director of the Work/Life Integration Project here at the Wharton School. He is also author of the book <i>Baby Bust:</i>
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<i>New Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family</i>. It's been too
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long since we've had a chance to chat. Stew, great to talk to you again. Friedman: Dan, thanks so much for having me.
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Really appreciate being here. And so this book is a 10th anniversary edition. And so
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let's start there, with obviously the importance of doing the first edition. But why you think it's so important to
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bring it back now? Well, the first edition, 2012-2013, was based on the findings of a study we did here at the Wharton School, the
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Wharton Work/Life Integration Project, which I founded in 1991. One of the things we did with that project was to start
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to survey Wharton students and alumni in depth as to their values, beliefs, hopes, and aspirations for their careers
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and for the rest of their lives. And we had the opportunity in 2012 to compare the responses of people from the class of
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1990, Gen Xers, with the Millennials, the class of 2012. So we had a true longitudinal comparison of 22-
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year-olds, both graduating from the same place, as opposed to a lot of the other studies that compare generations that ask
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22-year-olds a set of questions, and then they ask 42-year-olds a set of questions, when what you're getting there has a lot
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to do with the difference between being 22 and being 42. Here, we had a true cross- generational study, which was
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unique. And what was so startling about my initial take on what we saw in our data— this is hundreds and hundreds of
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people from both classes, men and women— was the response to the question, do you plan to have or adopt children? "Yes",
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"probably", "not sure", "probably not", and "no", were the response
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alternatives. And in 1992, it was 78-79% "probably" or "yes", for
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men and women. And in 2012, it was 42%. - Significant difference. - Well, staggering.
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And I just thought, "No, that can't be right." But it was. - Yeah.
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So— so that became the central focus of this cross-generational study. Why is this? And so that's what we were exploring in
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the initial— the initial monograph for the book about— the different generations and why men— and the different
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reasons for why men and women were less likely to plan to have or adopt kids. Well, ten years later, the Wharton Press
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thought, "Well, let's look at this again, because this issue has just gotten bigger, right?" With respect to how people think
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about working the rest of their lives, and particularly about the care and— creation and care of the next generation. So much
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had happened in the intervening decade, including and especially the pandemic. But also huge economic shifts, changes in
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attitudes particularly about religion. And so we produced a new version that had an update, that has an update, with
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respect to how— how things have changed, with a special focus on how the the means by which work and life fit together is now
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radically different. Not only because of people working from home more often as a result of the humongous jolt that the
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pandemic brought, but also the digital revolution and the tools we have now to be able to communicate anywhere, anytime,
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and how that has changed how people experience the relationship between work and family life. - Yeah, and
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obviously, part of this also plays into the work that you've done around just thinking about work/life balance, and how
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people try and do this in what has become an ever-increasing level of stuff that we have in our lives. And the challenges of
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trying to balance that, you know, and not fall off the deep end into the deep end of the pool here.
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Yeah, it's really— it's really tough now. And it's gotten tougher. There are signs of hope that I observe just thinking
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about the last decade, but also in the 2012-2013 version. The main one being that young men and women are more alike now
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than they were when we started this study 30 years ago, in terms of their thinking about what a modern working parent
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partnership looks like. - Right. - They're— they're more similar in their attitudes. They've become closer in how they think about
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what they would expect of their partners. So that's a good thing. And it creates, you know, within a family, or a parenting
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partnership, the ground for smarter choices, fairer choices. But there's still so much— so much that needs to be done to
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create change. And people are struggling for lots of different reasons that have to do with social policy, organizational
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practice, the capacities that individuals have to be able to figure these very complex puzzles out. And, you know, on
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all fronts, there are things that are happening that are intended to make it easier for people who choose to become
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parents to— to enable them to do that. To empower them to do that. But there's also a lot of resistance on all fronts. So
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it's an ongoing— it's an ongoing issue. And one that I think there's just more and more expressed pain about. And so
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it's become more of a national point of focus for both men and women, and for grandparents too. I am now one. That's another thing
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that's happened since. - Congratulations. - Thank you. Since— since the first publication in 2012-2013, I've become a
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grandparent. And so I have a new perspective personally on what these issues mean. - And
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so part of this I guess also is, as you said, with the pandemic, obviously how people are dealing with their work, but
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also how work is dealing with them, in being able to maybe work with them a little bit better to understand some of these issues
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that people are going through, so that they have more flexibility to be able to work from home. And that's a dynamic
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that you go back to 1992, we really didn't have a lot of that in the mix. No. But between '92 and 2012, we— we saw some shifts, as you know,
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particularly as the digital revolution was— was upon us. And people were figuring out how they could work more flexibly
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because of that. For other reasons as well, as companies were responding to an increasing demand by men and women to have
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more flexibility. That voice was being expressed more. But the pandemic just changed everything. As we started living
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Zoom life and started to actually see on the screen, you know, people and animals behind you as you're speaking, and
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recognizing that the boundary between your work identity and role and the other parts of your life, particularly in your home
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life, was something that needed to be much more consciously managed. But it also brought, as you say, Dan, the greater
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recognition that, "Wow, there is this person's life, and I can see it. So perhaps we as a company ought to be taking greater
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account for that other part of life and to invest in employees' capability and being able to manage the different dynamics,
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intentions and boundaries so that they can be more fully present when they are, you know, engaged in work— in work tasks.
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And that's— and that's been happening. And that's a positive trend. - What has this meant
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then from a policy perspective, and how entities beyond the corporate boardroom are thinking about
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these components of— of social policy? - Well, in the— in the concluding chapter of the book, I write about the
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changes that I'm advancing based not only on my own views and work as a policy advocate, and as an organizational consultant
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practitioner and as a psychologist, and at the policy level, what I was advocating for then and continue to is greater
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investment in childcare, and in family leave. So those remain issues that at the national level, we are stymied. But where
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we're seeing real innovation and progress is at the state and especially at the municipal level throughout the country, as
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more and more municipalities and states are changing their policies to provide greater support for family and medical
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leave, as well as for childcare support of various kinds. But we as a country remain woefully behind our peers and in the
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international economy. And that is a source of, I think, shame, really, as you think about what what makes for good society.
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Well, it's one that cares for its most— its most needy, and especially the next generation. And we're just not doing that
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nearly enough. - So for countries that are ahead of where our curve is right now,
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how have they been able to advance it? And— and is it— has it become— and I've wondered whether or not this is another one of
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those areas where there's a component of public-private partnership that may have to come together in order to be
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able to break down that wall that seemingly has been there for many decades. Yeah. In fact, in 2000, when I was on leave from Wharton
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serving as Head of Leadership Development for Ford Motor Company, one of the things that we were able to organize here at
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Wharton was a national conference on public-private partnerships in providing for childcare. That's almost 25
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years ago. And we're still— we're still not as nearly as far as we need to be. But that is surely part of the solution. And
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as I was saying earlier, many of the companies, the more progressive companies, the ones that are tuned into the— these—
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these aspects of the demands of a changing labor market, they're innovating. So there's a lot of innovation happening at
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the— at the organizational level, especially in the wake of the pandemic, as— as, you know, experiments were just, you know,
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flourishing everywhere in terms of new models for how you invest in people's whole lives. But at the national level, I don't— I
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don't see much hope for progress, frankly. And— and we've got to look to, you know, to smaller units at state and
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local levels, as well as in support of what private sector companies, through tax advantages and other
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investments, allow them to— to provide the kinds of support that— that people need. So one of the reasons people are less
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likely to want to have— to plan to have children now— and that decline, by the way that we observed in 2012, from 1992 to
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2012, has only gotten worse. - Right. - Since. Now, we haven't done another follow up study. Maybe 2032, if I'm still around, we'll
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do one. But— but you can look at lots of other data to see that the fertility rate in the United States is declining still
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further. - Right. - So, you know, money is a big part of that, economics is a big part of that. But support for what families
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need. And that has much to do with childcare, education, investing more in education as a society, which is something that
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we see in some of, you know, our partners in other parts of the world. That— that we're just not investing enough. And so those
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are some of the things that— that are on the horizon, we hope. And then there is obviously
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the downstream impact of having that lower birth rate, fertility rate, of what it's going to mean for
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the numbers of people in the population, of course, 20, 30 years down the road, and what that economic impact—
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- Yeah. - That is going to be not only for our economy, but for businesses as well.
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Well, that's why companies that have a long-term vision are concerned about this. But you know, most of the motivation for
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businesses is near term, how do we attract the best and the brightest? Well, we try to have policies and practices in
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culture, that— that truly values the whole person. But yeah, you know, economists have been studying birth rates for a long
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time because you need people to replenish your economic engine. And that's why it is such a such a pressing issue as you look,
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you know, the strategic view of where our society is going. One of the things that you talk about in the book is the
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reasoning behind the idea of opting out of parenthood, and the fact that in many instances, the reasons why it may differ
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between what men think and what women think, right? - That's right. That's right. So, once we saw that there was this huge gap,
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that was the same for men and women in terms of their plans for whether or not they were going to have children. I
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looked into why is this, and how is it different, if it is, for men and women. Indeed, for women, the drivers had more to do with
00:15:34
their increased interest in providing help to other people through their careers, and also in their networks of
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friendships. That these were in some ways playing a more important role in their identities than was becoming a
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mother. So— so that was an important shift. There was also the reduced interest in religion. So the people who
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identified as atheist or agnostic— women. This is for women, not for men— the more likely they were— they were
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likely to, they were going to say "No, that's not something that I have to do, to become a mother." Because they were less
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bound by traditional expectations for a woman's role in society. For men, on the other hand, it had more to do
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with money. Especially if you were a man, as a student, and you have loans that you had to pay back. Now you were less
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likely to think about having or planning to have children. But they also anticipated greater conflict between their work and
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family roles than the prior generation. Because as I said earlier, they had— they were more likely to have views of
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family life that were egalitarian in the sense that both men and women were going to be playing equal partner roles
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in making both their careers and their domestic organization work. So they anticipated greater conflict. And when I
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started to have discussions with students and alumni about these results ten years ago, one of the things that I heard quite a
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bit about was young men being afraid to become fathers, because they thought that they might fail in the role. And they
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were concerned about that, that that was another inhibitor that we were hearing in discussions, because of their expectation of
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greater conflict. - Right. - At the same time, we had people— there was a student in one of my undergraduate classes, where I
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began the class by asking people what their aspirations were for their careers. And one of them, as we're going around, first day
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of class said, "Well, my— my career aspiration is to be a full-time dad." And of course, I nearly fell off my chair when I
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heard that. This is about ten years ago. But you— you definitely would not have heard that in 1992. - No. - So, you know,
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that's just a little outcropping of how men are thinking differently. They're not— you know, their father's father, in
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terms of they don't think of themselves as necessarily the ideal worker who is 100% available anytime, anywhere.
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They want to have a greater impact in their families. But because of that higher expectation for the domestic
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role, less of them are choosing to invest in it. - Yeah. For people that read the book, and obviously, knowing what we know
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now, what is it that you hope that they take away from having a chance to read <i>Baby Bust</i>?
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Well, I think you'll get a— sort of an interior view, how people think and feel about their lives and careers, that you don't get
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from economic or sociological studies. Because this is not just about employment. Am I going to work? Am I not going to
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work? Am I going to have kids, am I not going to have kids? This is the— you know, it digs deep into why people are thinking this
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way. And what we can do to help people think about and find creative ways to— to live the lives they truly want to live.
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That's another note of optimism that I took from this study and I still am holding on to. And that is that there's
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greater freedom now for women and men to choose the roles they want to play in life. - Yeah. - And so how we invest in that, so—
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is an important part of the back part of the book, which is implications for policy. Which we just touched on a bit. But
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also, organizational practice. What can you do as a manager, as an executive, as a CEO, to organize your company and to
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promote certain values and practices that enable people to live the lives they truly want to live? Whether that's becoming
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parents or not. And there's also material there on what you as an individual or as a family can do to— to become more
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conscious of the choices that you've got available to you and how to get support for taking those choices and making them
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real, to craft the life that— that you want to live. And so I hope that people will take both a better understanding of this
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phenomenon, why it's important for our country, for our businesses, but also to get some practical insights about what
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they can do to try to promote positive change at the social level, at the organizational level, and perhaps most
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importantly, in their own lives and families. Great to see you again. Thanks for coming in.
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Well, thanks for having me, Dan. Absolutely. Stew Friedman. The book is titled <i>Baby Bust: New</i>
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<i>Choices for Men and Women in Work and Family</i>. - Thank you for listening to <i>The Ripple Effect</i>.
00:20:54
We hope you found this episode informative and engaging. Don't forget to subscribe and leave us
00:20:59
a review so that we can continue to bring you the best insight from the Wharton School.

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Episode Highlights

  • The Decline of Birth Rates
    Friedman reveals a staggering drop in the percentage of people planning to have children.
    “In 1992, it was 78-79% 'probably' or 'yes'; in 2012, it was 42%.”
    @ 03m 39s
    July 16, 2024
  • Changing Perspectives on Parenthood
    Friedman discusses how young men are increasingly interested in being full-time dads.
    “One student said, 'My career aspiration is to be a full-time dad.'”
    @ 17m 54s
    July 16, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • The decision to start a family has become more challenging.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
  • Young men and women are more alike now than they were 30 years ago.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?
  • There's greater freedom now for women and men to choose their roles.
    Why Are Birth Rates Declining?

Key Moments

  • Family Planning Challenges01:05
  • Generational Comparisons02:31
  • Evolving Gender Roles06:15
  • Policy Perspectives10:01
  • Future Implications13:59

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