00:00:08
I've always had the interest and when I first I started a bunch of things I was one of
00:00:15
these constantly changing your majors people and I changed between applied physics is where I started and then I
00:00:21
went to international studies but then somehow transitioned to anthropology and archeology but I always kept the
00:00:28
interest up in international studies so kind of went from wanting to study current cultures Mo's going on to
00:00:33
studying past cultures and what was going on there and that the constant you know urge to learn more about all
00:00:42
societies kept me interested in forecasting in what was going on in different countries and as I said by
00:00:49
switching all the time i went to quite a few different universities in quite a few different countries i was at school
00:00:55
in the stars beginning utah followed by vermont and then norway then back to utah and i finished my doctorate in
00:01:03
Scotland where I was there for seven years and then I went to Ireland for 10 years so you know constantly moving in
00:01:10
different cultures dimmer societies different political systems it was always something of great interest to me
00:01:18
in what I do for my day job in maritime archaeology it's a very similar thing we
00:01:24
take the outside view we have very disparate information we have maybe a few artifacts maybe not even maybe some
00:01:31
historical sources maybe someone stumbled upon something and just have rumors historical studies ethnographic
00:01:38
studies and we have to take all this information and try to piece it together to come up with a solution to or
00:01:44
explanation of what we're finding and it's very similar in forecasting I kind
00:01:49
of approach it the same way where I'll take very disparate information um I won't take the big huge pictures that
00:01:57
are thrust in your face I'll take outside of use and use some of the same tools that I use at work I'm a huge
00:02:02
proponent of using GIS mapping of different issues to try to get like say it's a question that has a geographical
00:02:09
perspective I'll make my own GIS program and basically you know put the model
00:02:16
together that has all the contributory information from different press sources different mapping where different roads
00:02:22
are communication routes transportation routes and it's the same kind of thing I
00:02:26
would do in archaeology I just apply it to the future and forecasting as opposed
00:02:30
to applying it to the past the first one was there there's almost no but I'm I'd say there's no nothing is
00:02:41
certain that's not entirely sure there's I'm sure there's certain things that are
00:02:45
sir but for the most part nothing is certain the other thing was don't trust
00:02:51
one source of information but then don't discard all sources just because you
00:02:55
think it's not valid when you're whenever you're reading a source of
00:02:59
information if you have just one single source and is the only one saying it I didn't sometimes I wouldn't dismiss it
00:03:07
but I would not trust it I'd look for something that would you know contribute
00:03:11
to it or just help verify it and that can even be one of these sources where you know you see it on the intern you
00:03:17
think wow that's really dubious these guys are you know pretty crazy but somewhere in there if you read through
00:03:22
the whole thing there might be one sentence which collaborates what's going on in that other source that was a
00:03:27
single source and I was like okay now I've got two independent sources so and
00:03:31
you can start to build on that um so one of the things that would have says don't
00:03:35
rely on the one don't discard sources just because you may think they're a bit
00:03:39
out there and there are quite a few sources that are out there trust yours self but doubt yourself as well and
00:03:50
always be prepared to be devil's advocate to yourself if you're working within a team that's even better because
00:03:58
most forecasters do not have a problem being devil's advocate or we call red
00:04:02
teaming and keep an open mind don't go into something thinking you know exactly
00:04:08
what's going on it never seems to work out that way just when you think you know exactly what's going on it changes
00:04:15
it'll be the main thing is just you know be open to change in dr. tetlock spoke
00:04:21
he mentions that were in perpetual beta that is a great way of thinking of it is
00:04:25
always be willing to change and learn and just you know go with it a lot of people get really kind of stuck in the
00:04:31
mud on certain ideas and that's that's the quickest way to get it wrong like I said I go back and forth between
00:04:41
the different you know venues of inquiry in archaeology and in forecasting so there has been times were one of the
00:04:48
things that forecasting told me is it's great if you have a model but all there
00:04:52
can always be a better model always be a better model you might have one that's
00:04:55
showing you exactly what you want but you know if you tweak it a little bit or you say you find a new data set can
00:05:01
always be that little bit better and I've started to apply that to some shipwreck hunts that I've been doing
00:05:06
where we have a model on how to locate shipwrecks in areas of high probability but it can always be better so I've
00:05:13
actually started tweaking some of the models that I use at work to add additional data sets maybe pulling
00:05:18
things from multidisciplinary studies from geomorphology marine geomorphology riverbed hydrological processes going
00:05:27
into shipwreck site formation and just basically in a constantly tweaking the models um there's something the other
00:05:33
thing that I've tried to do as much as I can as I have two young sons who I'm
00:05:38
trying to teach them how to approach different issues you know not not so much to get him in trouble at school for
00:05:44
questioning the teacher all the time which is very possible but when they answer a question say well is that it I
00:05:50
spoke to my son about a tree growing in a field and so how much do you think that tree is going to grow next year and
00:05:56
you just said oh well this I said why'd you say that he's like well because just
00:05:59
looks like well did you think about how much is it gonna rain next year how much
00:06:03
fertilizer is the farm are going to put in that field without trees in the middle how often is he going to plow it
00:06:07
but you know there's so many issues that surround one issue that when you hear
00:06:12
one question there's usually you know 20 30 however many more questions that can
00:06:16
help you answer that question so I've been trying to push it on them to kind
00:06:21
of think that way you