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I've always had the interest and when I
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first
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I started a bunch of things I was one of
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these constantly changing your majors
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people and I changed between applied
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physics is where I started and then I
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went to international studies but then
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somehow transitioned to anthropology and
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archeology but I always kept the
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interest up in international studies so
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kind of went from wanting to study
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current cultures Mo's going on to
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studying past cultures and what was
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going on there and that the constant you
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know urge to learn more about all
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societies kept me interested in
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forecasting in what was going on in
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different countries and as I said by
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switching all the time i went to quite a
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few different universities in quite a
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few different countries i was at school
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in the stars beginning utah followed by
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vermont and then norway then back to
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utah and i finished my doctorate in
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Scotland where I was there for seven
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years and then I went to Ireland for 10
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years so you know constantly moving in
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different cultures dimmer societies
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different political systems it was
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always something of great interest to me
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in what I do for my day job in maritime
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archaeology it's a very similar thing we
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take the outside view we have very
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disparate information we have maybe a
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few artifacts maybe not even maybe some
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historical sources maybe someone
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stumbled upon something and just have
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rumors historical studies ethnographic
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studies and we have to take all this
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information and try to piece it together
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to come up with a solution to or
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explanation of what we're finding and
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it's very similar in forecasting I kind
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of approach it the same way where I'll
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take very disparate information um I
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won't take the big huge pictures that
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are thrust in your face I'll take
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outside of use and use some of the same
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tools that I use at work I'm a huge
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proponent of using GIS mapping of
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different issues to try to get like say
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it's a question that has a geographical
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perspective I'll make my own GIS program
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and basically you know put the model
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together that has all the contributory
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information from different press sources
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different mapping where different roads
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are communication routes transportation
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routes and it's the same kind of thing I
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would do in archaeology I just apply it
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to the future and forecasting as opposed
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to applying it to the past
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the first one was there there's almost
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no but I'm I'd say there's no nothing is
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certain that's not entirely sure there's
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I'm sure there's certain things that are
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sir but for the most part nothing is
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certain the other thing was don't trust
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one source of information but then don't
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discard all sources just because you
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think it's not valid when you're
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whenever you're reading a source of
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information if you have just one single
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source and is the only one saying it I
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didn't sometimes I wouldn't dismiss it
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but I would not trust it I'd look for
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something that would you know contribute
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to it or just help verify it and that
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can even be one of these sources where
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you know you see it on the intern you
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think wow that's really dubious these
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guys are you know pretty crazy but
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somewhere in there if you read through
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the whole thing there might be one
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sentence which collaborates what's going
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on in that other source that was a
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single source and I was like okay now
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I've got two independent sources so and
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you can start to build on that um so one
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of the things that would have says don't
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rely on the one don't discard sources
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just because you may think they're a bit
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out there and there are quite a few
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sources that are out there
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trust yours
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self but doubt yourself as well and
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always be prepared to be devil's
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advocate to yourself if you're working
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within a team that's even better because
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most forecasters do not have a problem
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being devil's advocate or we call red
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teaming and keep an open mind don't go
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into something thinking you know exactly
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what's going on it never seems to work
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out that way just when you think you
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know exactly what's going on it changes
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it'll be the main thing is just you know
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be open to change in dr. tetlock spoke
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he mentions that were in perpetual beta
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that is a great way of thinking of it is
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always be willing to change and learn
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and just you know go with it a lot of
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people get really kind of stuck in the
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mud on certain ideas and that's that's
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the quickest way to get it wrong
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like I said I go back and forth between
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the different you know venues of inquiry
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in archaeology and in forecasting so
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there has been times were one of the
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things that forecasting told me is it's
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great if you have a model but all there
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can always be a better model always be a
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better model you might have one that's
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showing you exactly what you want but
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you know if you tweak it a little bit or
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you say you find a new data set can
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always be that little bit better and
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I've started to apply that to some
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shipwreck hunts that I've been doing
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where we have a model on how to locate
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shipwrecks in areas of high probability
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but it can always be better so I've
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actually started tweaking some of the
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models that I use at work to add
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additional data sets maybe pulling
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things from multidisciplinary studies
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from geomorphology marine geomorphology
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riverbed hydrological processes going
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into shipwreck site formation and just
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basically in a constantly tweaking the
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models um there's something the other
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thing that I've tried to do as much as I
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can as I have two young sons who I'm
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trying to teach them how to approach
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different issues you know not not so
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much to get him in trouble at school for
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questioning the teacher all the time
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which is very possible but when they
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answer a question say well is that it I
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spoke to my son about a tree growing in
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a field and so how much do you think
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that tree is going to grow next year and
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you just said oh well this I said why'd
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you say that he's like well because just
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looks like well did you think about how
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much is it gonna rain next year how much
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fertilizer is the farm are going to put
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in that field without trees in the
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middle how often is he going to plow it
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but you know there's so many issues that
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surround one issue that when you hear
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one question there's usually you know 20
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30 however many more questions that can
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help you answer that question so I've
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been trying to push it on them to kind
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of think that way
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you
