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my professional life has involved 4k have what I do or have done to help other people make better decisions
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hopefully but several years ago I attended a pen engaging minds event in New York City and Phil tetlock and Bob
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meddlers were speaking about the good judgment project which was very intriguing to me and so I inquired about
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joining as a forecaster and several months later when positions opened up I became a forecaster
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that and in a very humbling way that I knew a lot less about the world than I thought I knew and so that to begin with
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spurred by thirst for knowledge and information it also gave me a perspective about risk-taking because in
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my first year I was not a super forecaster I had to earn that status and I was involved in in a marketplace which
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involved essentially trading and I learned a lot about risk-taking and how much I was either risk-averse or overly
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overly risky learning about things from a perspective of other information has been very important but once i became a
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super forecaster in particular what was helpful to me was a perspective of others the sharing of information and
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the ability to test your own beliefs and hypotheses for bias by taking into account what others have said or
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analyzed as well as information that contradicts your own has been very valuable to me
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the process evolved over time for me and one of the things that is important to me is to use historical information but
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not to be over Alliant on it if there is the ability to compare against similar situations in the past I'm very
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cognizant of using that information but only to the extent that it is truly relevant to the current circumstances
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beyond that frequently adjusting my own forecast based upon new information and new perspectives of others is extremely
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valuable it's very easy to take a position and sit back and say that's it
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however the real world is a very active one and often things change and forecasts should change based upon the
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events and the happenings of the world and I found it's extremely useful to pay
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a lot of attention to those events and frequently re-examine my own forecasts and see if they need to be updated
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I think that one of the things that would be extremely useful would be to participate in good judgments open
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forecasting competition because you can test your own abilities and learn about the things that that both limit your
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ability to forecast and make you a better forecaster and through that process become somebody who is more
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adept at forecasting the good judgement incorporated itself has put together various training methods which have been
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very useful to me as a super forecaster and I'm sure to others but as an individual just forecasting and and
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using that forecasting experience can be a very valuable thing to learn about yourself and the process of forecasting
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what and and what you do well in what you do less well and then to seek ways of improving upon those weaknesses
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my wife and I have two different philosophies of investment she has been involved over the years as a partner and
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an investment firm that does alternative investments which are allegedly less risky but by my lights carry a risk that
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is sometimes more than what I like I on the other hand and much more risk averse
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and although less risk-averse then i was when i first started participating a good judgment project my professional
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career has been oriented towards reducing the risk that decision makers have and perhaps i've taken that point
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of view in my own approach to investing which my wife feels is overly conservative i think that that the
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forecast thing as part of the good judgment project has given me a window into my own risk taking perspective and
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move me at least somewhat closer to my wife's point of view and and i think that that's a very useful thing in real
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life as well as you know from the standpoint of participating as a super forecasting
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you