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my professional life has involved 4k
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have what I do or have done to help
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other people make better decisions
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hopefully but several years ago I
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attended a pen engaging minds event in
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New York City and Phil tetlock and Bob
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meddlers were speaking about the good
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judgment project which was very
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intriguing to me and so I inquired about
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joining as a forecaster and several
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months later when positions opened up I
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became a forecaster
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that and in a very humbling way that I
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knew a lot less about the world than I
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thought I knew and so that to begin with
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spurred by thirst for knowledge and
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information it also gave me a
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perspective about risk-taking because in
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my first year I was not a super
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forecaster I had to earn that status and
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I was involved in in a marketplace which
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involved essentially trading and I
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learned a lot about risk-taking and how
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much I was either risk-averse or overly
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overly risky learning about things from
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a perspective of other information has
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been very important but once i became a
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super forecaster in particular what was
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helpful to me was a perspective of
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others the sharing of information and
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the ability to test your own beliefs and
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hypotheses for bias by taking into
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account what others have said or
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analyzed as well as information that
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contradicts your own has been very
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valuable to me
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the process evolved over time for me and
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one of the things that is important to
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me is to use historical information but
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not to be over Alliant on it if there is
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the ability to compare against similar
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situations in the past I'm very
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cognizant of using that information but
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only to the extent that it is truly
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relevant to the current circumstances
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beyond that frequently adjusting my own
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forecast based upon new information and
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new perspectives of others is extremely
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valuable it's very easy to take a
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position and sit back and say that's it
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however the real world is a very active
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one and often things change and
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forecasts should change based upon the
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events and the happenings of the world
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and I found it's extremely useful to pay
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a lot of attention to those events and
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frequently re-examine my own forecasts
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and see if they need to be updated
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I think that one of the things that
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would be extremely useful would be to
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participate in good judgments open
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forecasting competition because you can
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test your own abilities and learn about
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the things that that both limit your
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ability to forecast and make you a
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better forecaster and through that
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process become somebody who is more
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adept at forecasting the good judgement
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incorporated itself has put together
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various training methods which have been
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very useful to me as a super forecaster
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and I'm sure to others but as an
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individual just forecasting and and
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using that forecasting experience can be
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a very valuable thing to learn about
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yourself and the process of forecasting
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what and and what you do well in what
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you do less well and then to seek ways
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of improving upon those weaknesses
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my wife and I have two different
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philosophies of investment she has been
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involved over the years as a partner and
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an investment firm that does alternative
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investments which are allegedly less
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risky but by my lights carry a risk that
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is sometimes more than what I like I on
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the other hand and much more risk averse
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and although less risk-averse then i was
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when i first started participating a
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good judgment project my professional
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career has been oriented towards
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reducing the risk that decision makers
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have and perhaps i've taken that point
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of view in my own approach to investing
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which my wife feels is overly
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conservative i think that that the
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forecast thing as part of the good
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judgment project has given me a window
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into my own risk taking perspective and
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move me at least somewhat closer to my
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wife's point of view and and i think
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that that's a very useful thing in real
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life as well as you know from the
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standpoint of participating as a super
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forecasting
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you
