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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball.
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Welcome to a full hour of sports
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analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting
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this week with my two two of my three
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co-host, Audi Winer and Eric Bradlo.
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Shane Jensen is in the classroom. I
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believe we're going to be juggling
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recording between Audi and Shane classes
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for the next few weeks. Eric on his off
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days from recording with us is doing
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like 14 sections of NBAs as he always
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does this
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>> all mornings. But I 8:30 to noon,
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>> but he bills around the show. That's
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real commitment right there, Eric
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Bradlo. Um, so I'm the only schmuck here
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not teaching. I'm I'm reing in that
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right now. This is a month without
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teaching. Good for I don't know,
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watching football and thinking about
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sports analytics. Let's do some of that.
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We're at the very end of the football
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season. We're going to we're recording
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on Tuesday afternoon as we usually do.
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The show will go up on Wednesday. Last
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night was the national championship game
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for the end of the college football
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season. And we're going to have a friend
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of the show, an an oldtime guest, an
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in-person guest, one of the few repeat
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in-person guests we had back in the day.
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Ty Hildenbrandt, co-host of the Solid
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Verbal, wildly popular College Football
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podcast, Solid Verbal. Ty is joining us
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at the top of the hour, which is about a
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half an hour from now. We're going to
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talk college football then, so we'll
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hold off a little bit, though. I am
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curious whether my guys here watched any
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of the game. Hey you baseball people,
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you watched any college football last
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night?
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>> I did.
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>> Both of them saying
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>> shockingly that I did by the way cuz I'm
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not a you know you know I'm not a
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college football but I watched the
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championship.
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>> Well, we're bringing you around when we
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first started doing the show 14 years
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ago. You weren't that much of a pro
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football guy and we brought you deep
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into that and so college is just around
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the corner from that.
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>> You know fun game.
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>> It's uh there's a lot of great research
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questions in football. Yes. Right.
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>> It really does cross over what I
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consider like the big four pillars of of
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analytics and football really can tackle
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all of them.
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>> Give us the four pillars of analytics.
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>> Well, um the four I call the four
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pillars. So historical evaluation. So
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why people won and who, what, where,
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why, and what's happened in the past. Um
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and then future evaluation. So who will
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win and and what drives what predicts
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future winning. That's kind of the big
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innovation of analytics is to get away
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from the history and move to prediction.
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But I do think they've overstepped.
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They've gone too far away to forecasting
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and not enough kind of contemplation of
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the past. I think that's just as equally
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interesting.
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>> That that fits your baseball
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conservatism. That fits you very well.
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Contemplate the past. Contemplate the
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past, people.
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>> Indeed. And and then of course um uh
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decision game analytics and football is
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just abundant in that just why the why
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you make the decisions you make and
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which are the right ones. Um and there's
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more analytics. It's hard. What's the
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last one? Uh the last one is training
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analytics. How do you get players to
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become better?
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>> I was going to say it's hard to do three
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or four without two.
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>> Uh yeah. Well, you know, true. True is
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sort two is sort of the big one, right?
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The future, but is the predictive two is
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the predictive predictive. But decision
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analytics are fascinating. And I think
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spaceball is is is much more meager on
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that score. um in terms of like in-game
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decision- making. Not not that there's
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nothing. There's plenty of like stolen
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bases and um sort of strategic things in
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key situations, but football's got that
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in spades over really any other.
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>> Can you say more about that because I
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I'm I honestly get a little tired of
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fourth down and two-point discussions
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because that that's what people obsess
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about.
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>> Sure. Because that that I think there's
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been a huge huge uh improvement and and
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noticeable on the field. In fact,
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yesterday's final game was essentially
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decided by a
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>> Oh, Aie, you blanked out there for a
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second. It was decided by the what?
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>> The game yesterday, wasn't it decided on
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a fourth and five conversion?
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>> I mean, that was one of the crucial
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plays in the game. You could argue
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Parson Beck's
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>> interception was decided
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>> by wide open if he throws it seven yards
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farther could have also decided the
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game. But do you think for a moment if
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it hadn't been for analytics they would
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have ever have contemplated a fourth and
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five conversion?
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>> That's an interesting question. I mean
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it's not like signetti is this major
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analytics guy but it may maybe that
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whole discussion has just has has
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lowered the threshold for going for it
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on fourth down and he clearly debated
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it. He was he had the field goal team on
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there for a moment.
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>> Um phenomenal phenomenal. You know,
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there was this there is this an aspect
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of that decision that that wasn't talked
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about on the broadcast I was watching
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anyway, but is we've talked about it a
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few years ago. People raised this. If he
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had kicked a field goal, they've been up
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six and so they a touchdown would have
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lost. If if they didn't get it and they
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were just three, the other team might
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have settled for a field goal. There's
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this idea that when a team's down by
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more than three, they play more
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aggressively and it actually can hurt
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the team that's leading because the
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aggressive play leads them to score more
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and six is kind of a precarious position
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to sit in if that's true.
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>> Well, that's strategic right there. And
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you were talking about other ones.
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There's of course there's two-point
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conversions. It's not fourth down
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conversion. That's also a big one. But
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the mixture of play calling, I mean,
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isn't that the most important and most
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fascinating?
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>> I I was hoping you were going to go
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there because I don't think there's been
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enough on that. And um it's but it's
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really really hard and you know fans are
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basically just fans want them to call
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the touchdown play. And so if it only
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goes for one yard they didn't call the
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touchdown play. They did the wrong
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thing. Fans don't reason about this in a
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very sophisticated way and it's hard to
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reason about it in a sophisticated way
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because it's super game game theoretic.
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Right.
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>> Right. And even so I'll mention some uh
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um a paper written by our our our
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friends and colleagues out in CMU. They
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they analyze using big datable the
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entropy of the count to of the
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quarterback, right? So they count in
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until they decide to to to snap the
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ball. And they had that data and they
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they argued, I think, fairly
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persuasively that the more entropy,
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meaning the more unpredictable your your
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snap, the much more
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>> the cadence, you're talking about the
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quarterback's cadence, as he calls the
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snap. Right. Right. This was this year's
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research.
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>> What was the outcome of that? It leads
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to more what? I assume better outcomes.
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better outcomes, more unpredictable play
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calling and and um there's just a
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fundamental game theory of it is um in
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football is so rich and I think probably
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thing that that's an obstacle is that we
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don't really have the the data per
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perhaps and um and and no one really
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runs experiments. Experiments would
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would help us really start to solve some
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of these questions, but it's impossible
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to get
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>> Well, it's a little bit like Audi or are
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there is there anybody I think would you
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would you agree that in baseball is this
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true? Is this true in baseball that the
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pitcher couldn't could probably not do
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better? Could they do better than just
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truly randomizing their pitch selection?
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>> They probably do randomizing. I mean,
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you have to be careful with that because
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certain combinations are really really
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overwhelming in one direction, right?
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So, you can't just so conditional on a
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>> okay on a distribution like you this
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this hitter needs to see the slider
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because he's really weak against the
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slider and hits fast balls more. But
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given that absolute randomization, full
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randomization is is is much better than
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anything.
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>> And and with tennis, same thing like on
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down the down the middle line versus the
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outside, whatever the right terminology
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for those things is. Aren't they haven't
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studies been done that showed that
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high-end tennis players more or less do
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randomize that? I mean, they're really
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good at that, right?
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>> Actually was reading an article on this
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very recently. I don't know how it came
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across my desk that that showed that the
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top players are excellent at this and
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the best college players are also good
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at they're just as good.
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>> Well, Audi, what they're it's not just
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randomization. The hardest shot to hit
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in tennis is what's called the redirect.
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So, for example, Cade hits his we're
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both right-handed. Kades hits his
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forehand crosscourt to my forehand. And
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then for me to redirect that ball
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straight down the line, whether it's on
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the forehand or backhand side, that's
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always been the winning shot in tennis.
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And whoever can redirect the ball down
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the line first, that's the winning shot
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in tennis. And that's what you need to
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do. But unfortunately, it's really hard
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to do. And also, this the the sides of
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the net are higher than the B than the
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center of the net. The net goes like
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this. And so it's also harder to hit the
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ball over the sides of the net.
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>> Okay. So hold on. So you're saying now
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forget but forget about the serve. When
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you're playing baseline just returning
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shots with the other side, you have to
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decide whether to stay across court or
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take it down the line. And that that is
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a randomization choice as well.
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Interesting. Super. Okay. So this was a
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bit of a digression, but let's let's
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stop it there. This AI gave us Audi's
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four pillars of sports analytics. If you
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missed it, it was descriptive,
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predictive, in-game decision-making, and
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training. So, we often talk about the
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first two in one bin, and they're kind
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of being we often talk about there being
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three. Audi has parsed that first one
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because descriptive merits its own land.
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Audi thinks we should contemplate the
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past more. We'll leave it there for now.
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Odd. Um, okay. Let's talk about NFL. So,
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the the divisional round was this
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weekend. We had some a couple of
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phenomenal games and a couple of less
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phenomenal games. Any responses? We got
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the championship lineup here. The Pats
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made it through against the Broncos who
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were quarterbackless or not completely
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quarterbackless, but practically. And
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the Rams made it through against
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Seattle. I've seen Well, before we talk
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about those games, anything from the
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weekend, what stood out to you from the
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weekend other than Caleb Friaking
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Williams at the end of regulation, which
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is one of the most dramatic moments I
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can remember in football?
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>> Well, just a couple quick things on
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that. So, first, um, at least according
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to, uh, you know, I I don't know if I'm
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going to make this a segment for me, but
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what the heck, um, I'm going to ask Chat
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GPT every week to give me the top five
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most improbable things that happened in
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sports this week. I'm going to ask it
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for that. What the hell? Maybe it's
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interesting, maybe it's not interesting.
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>> You think it's going to be good at
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finding those?
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>> No, not that great. Um, but it did, but
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the third one it did list was the they
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called it the past of the century.
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Someone must have called it that. And
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that was the Caleb Williams uh 51 yard
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completion, running backwards, all kinds
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of things. Yeah, that was just an
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incredible.
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>> So, just let's note hilariously, as the
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commenter said on at real time, it went
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down as a 14 yard completion even though
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it traveled 50 yards in the air.
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>> Yeah. Just just so everyone knows, I
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mean, I I was talking about it with a
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bunch of people afterwards. I think
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there's probably only three
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quarterbacks, maybe four in the NFL that
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could have even made that play. Forget
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whether, you know, I think Josh Allen
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could make that play, could like run
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around enough and then throw it. I think
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>> you're saying that the two qualities are
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he has to have some escapability and a
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huge arm.
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>> Correct. I think Josh Allen could make
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that play. I think Lamar Jackson could
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make that play. Um I'm not convinced of
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anybody else in the NFL. Rogers has the
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arm and earlier in his career
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>> earlier in his career I would have and
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matter of fact he made plays similar to
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that I would have put him in that bin
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but that's a that's about it but the
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thing you know a couple things one is um
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did they consider going for two
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cuz remember they scored that touchdown
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with 18 seconds left that put them down
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one they kicked the extra point to go
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into overtime and I actually liked um
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Ben Johnson, the Bears coach answer, and
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I agreed with him in this case. So,
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you'll find I think you'll like his
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answer, too. I don't know if you know,
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but they were horrific on fourth down in
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that game. Like, I'm pretty sure they
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were stopped every single time. Maybe
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they made it once, maybe. And his
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comment was, "We weren't doing that well
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on short yardage plays. What makes me
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think that all of a sudden with the game
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on the line, we're going to be able to
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get two yards when we've tried it a
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bunch of times in this game and didn't
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get it?
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>> I mean,
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>> what what's the motivation in general?
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Because in you like that you like that
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decision if your team is disadvantaged
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in some way, like marketkedly
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disadvantaged, I guess, is when you
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would plan to do that. But Chicago one,
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they're the home team. Yes, they were
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the underdog, but they're the home team.
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And they'd played LA relatively
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comparably to that point, have they not?
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It wasn't obvious to me that they needed
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to, you know, strike when they had the
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opportunity or or go out swing it. That
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just the the the commenter suggested it
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on the show and I was I was surprised by
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it. So, give me your thinking.
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>> Aren't the baseline probabilities
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roughly a wash?
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>> The conversion probability is roughly
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50%.
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>> And then the overtime probability is
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roughly 50%, and the the three the
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obviously the conver the one the extra
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point is nearly it's 97%.
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>> It's close. this close to work.
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>> So, so I in situations like this when
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you're on the edge of a of a knife, this
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is when you're supposed to say we
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haven't been doing it at fourth down
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that matters.
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>> So, this but so Audi but Audi's
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importing Brill Winer wisdom here that
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says
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>> when I was listening to him I was
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thinking Audi would agree with that.
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Audi would agree with this kind of I'll
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call it localized information. Maybe
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localized and current information.
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>> Okay. I want I want to say this is a I
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mean this is what I loved about that
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paper is that this is basically humility
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for modelers. It's like recognize that
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so it's easy for us to say oh here comes
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the coach talking about the wind you
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know it's like overriding the model
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because of the wind or whatever but
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that's not what's going on here. The
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model is so knife edge as odd says that
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you have to consider contextual stuff.
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So sometimes that all that context which
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some people get buried in to get kind of
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swamped by isn't appropriate and
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sometimes it is and it depends on how
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definitive the model is. That's really
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>> by design it also makes it to go for the
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extra point. Let me say why. It used to
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be as you guys remember it used to be in
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pro football that in overtime if you got
00:14:00
the ball first and scored a touchdown
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the game was over. But that's no longer
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true. you score a touchdown and the
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other team still gets the ball. As a
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matter of fact, you should always defer
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because always because now you know what
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you need to do. Matter of fact, if they
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get six and one, you could decide to go
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for six and two. If they get three, you
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know, you need at least three. So the
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the overtime rules have changed to make
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it even more favorable to even if you're
00:14:28
the unlucky coin toss loser. Like
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they've made it so that there's it's
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more equitable in overtime is all I'm
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saying. Cuz otherwise if you didn't get
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the coin toss, you might as well forget
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about overtime. You typically lost game.
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>> Well, in seasons of in Bills just got
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knocked out for the sixth year in a row
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and one of their being knocked out was
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because of those early. In fact, the
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reason they changed the rules is because
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they were knocked out without having a
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chance to even touch the ball in
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overtime. Let's talk about the Bills.
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They lost again and again in
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heartbreaking fashion, controversial
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fashion in overtime with a a hard to
00:15:05
fathom interception decision and then
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probably equally hard to fathom pass
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interference call. Um they go down uh
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the Broncos in the process lose their
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quarterback Boon next in the next last
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play which is unbelievable and then the
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Bills fired their coach and this was a
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coach there's some stats that came up in
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the in the days after this game even
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before they fired the coach. The Bills
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have the most points scored in the NFL
00:15:29
over the last six years and the least
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points allowed in the NFL over the last
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six years. They have by far the greatest
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point differential in the NFL. They've
00:15:38
been to
00:15:38
>> playoff wins maybe
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>> most playoff wins surely. They've been
00:15:41
to the divisional round every year, the
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championship round a couple of years in
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that run and they fired their coach. Um,
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so that's the main thing that I'm stuck
00:15:49
with coming out of this other than just
00:15:51
the heartbreak. I should read out one of
00:15:53
the texts on from one of these Buffalo
00:15:55
text threads. I I I'll I'll dig this up,
00:15:57
but the pain and anguish is just so so
00:16:00
bad. Eric, what were your thoughts on
00:16:02
the Bills? Well,
00:16:05
I hate to say it because I love him as a
00:16:07
player. Josh Allen cost them that game.
00:16:10
>> He did. Well, he might have. I mean, who
00:16:12
knows what they would have done without
00:16:13
him, but no, his his mistakes. I mean,
00:16:15
that
00:16:16
>> his mistakes his his fumble at the end
00:16:18
of the first half, giving up three
00:16:19
points is inexcusable. Um,
00:16:22
>> did Eric, did anybody talk to him about
00:16:23
why he was running the ball? Any He
00:16:25
can't run in that situation. They didn't
00:16:27
have timeouts. They didn't have you
00:16:28
can't break the line of scrimmage. So,
00:16:30
what the heck was he doing? Right. And
00:16:32
forget the fact they tried to l it or
00:16:34
whatever he did there. Just what is he
00:16:36
doing? And that three points made a huge
00:16:39
difference in the game. The other thing
00:16:40
was that I know you saw this Cade. I
00:16:43
don't I don't I don't want to put up I'd
00:16:45
have to watch it again cuz I've only
00:16:46
seen it like twice or three times, but
00:16:49
he missed a wideopen receiver for a
00:16:52
touchdown with 15 seconds left in the
00:16:54
game. That ends the game. I mean, the
00:16:56
game's over and the guy it it has to be.
00:17:00
I don't say it has to be, but it sort of
00:17:01
if you're Josh Allen and you're
00:17:03
supposedly the MVP and the best
00:17:05
quarterback in the NFL, you must make
00:17:07
that throw.
00:17:08
>> And he missed him. Look, it reminded me
00:17:11
of Baker Mayfield the entire season.
00:17:14
That throw was Baker Mayfield cuz I
00:17:16
watched every Bucks game the entire
00:17:18
season. Guys are open deep and he's
00:17:21
overthrowing them.
00:17:22
>> Okay, but there's a I there there's a
00:17:25
difference here and this is something
00:17:26
Brian Burke worked on when motion
00:17:27
trucking first came out. Brian worked on
00:17:29
this. I don't know what's come of it,
00:17:30
but I'm sure some cool stuff has come of
00:17:32
it where you can begin to evaluate did
00:17:34
the quarterback go to the highest value
00:17:37
added place. And that's going to be some
00:17:40
combination of the probability of
00:17:41
completing the pass and then the value
00:17:43
of the play if you do complete the pass.
00:17:45
And so for the first time, we're
00:17:46
beginning to be, you know, kind of
00:17:48
backseat drivers on did the quarterback
00:17:51
go in the right place. I don't know what
00:17:52
the baseline base rate for that is,
00:17:55
Eric. I the base rate is not 100%. the
00:17:57
best quarterbacks in the history of the
00:17:59
game.
00:17:59
>> I didn't say I I know, but this is what
00:18:01
my reservation about that critique is.
00:18:03
It's inevitable that sometimes the QB is
00:18:06
going to miss the obvious guy and and if
00:18:08
it happens in a
00:18:10
>> key moment. Well, you know, who's to
00:18:12
know why that happened? It could the guy
00:18:14
can't see everything on the field, but
00:18:15
I'm curious. I don't know the answer. It
00:18:18
seems to me that the base rate, I don't
00:18:19
know, among the very top quarterbacks is
00:18:21
probably quite high, but substantially
00:18:24
short of one. Like I would guess
00:18:25
threequarters of the time.
00:18:27
>> Yeah.
00:18:27
>> Or the very best quarterbacks.
00:18:29
>> Okay. But here's the question. I mean
00:18:30
here and this is this is a when I'm
00:18:32
teaching this is one of my favorite
00:18:33
examples. It's what I call the
00:18:35
uncontrolled comparison.
00:18:37
>> In other words, you make a statement
00:18:38
that sounds very plausible. He should
00:18:41
have missed. He's a great quarterback.
00:18:42
He should not miss an open receiver. The
00:18:44
implication is we know that the the that
00:18:48
this is usually done three quarters, but
00:18:50
I'm not sure we do. And I think it would
00:18:52
be quite surprising to me if it's that
00:18:54
high. uh being a quarterback is and what
00:18:55
I'm really actually intrigued
00:18:56
>> I said I said among the very best
00:18:58
>> yes and what I'd be curious to know is
00:19:00
how compact it is from you know the 90th
00:19:03
percentile to the 10th percentile what's
00:19:05
the difference in and I'm curious and
00:19:07
this is I guess what Brian's metric
00:19:08
might help us figure out and that would
00:19:10
be great how often
00:19:11
>> this was I he presented this at a preMIT
00:19:14
conference when Google used to host that
00:19:15
preMIT conference for for a few years my
00:19:18
memory is a Brian that's probably been
00:19:19
five six years now but somebody's got
00:19:22
the answer to this someone has those
00:19:23
models someone has some sense of the
00:19:25
base rate and the compactness of that.
00:19:27
>> Yeah.
00:19:27
>> Um it's a terrific question.
00:19:28
>> Let me just say why also I I I I sort of
00:19:31
support firing McDermott, but for a it's
00:19:34
just I guess you could call it a
00:19:36
strategy type reason, which is
00:19:39
given the talent of Josh Allen, maybe
00:19:43
the strategy of the team to put so much
00:19:46
on him to give him as much flexibility
00:19:49
as you've given him is not a winning
00:19:51
strategy. Like for example, you know, uh
00:19:54
he turned the ball over four times in
00:19:56
the game. Now, that's not exactly the
00:19:59
coach's fault, but maybe the structure
00:20:01
to have Josh Allen more freewheeling,
00:20:03
maybe to allow him more chances to throw
00:20:05
the ball down the field, maybe running
00:20:07
the ball less. I mean, I'm saying by
00:20:09
construction, he may have the thought of
00:20:14
we're going to get great Josh Allen and
00:20:16
we're going to get sometimes not as
00:20:17
great Josh Allen, but that tradeoff is
00:20:19
worth it. And maybe that structure is
00:20:21
just wrong in the NFL. Maybe
00:20:22
empirically, you know, can't win playoff
00:20:26
games. I have I'll say it the following
00:20:28
way. Let's say you have to win four
00:20:30
playoff games to win the Super Bowl.
00:20:33
Generally, it's four, three or four.
00:20:36
Eventually, Josh Allen's going to have a
00:20:38
Josh Allen game under the Shawn
00:20:40
McDermott structure. And therefore,
00:20:42
that's why
00:20:43
>> hypothesis
00:20:45
question. That's all it is. It's a
00:20:46
hypothesis.
00:20:47
>> That's it's interesting. Um,
00:20:50
we're we're gonna roll off of this in
00:20:52
just a few minutes. So, what else on the
00:20:54
NFL? What's prominent to you guys on the
00:20:56
NFL right now? Either from the
00:20:58
divisional round or the upcoming
00:21:00
conference championship round. I'll give
00:21:01
you one thing. I believe this is I think
00:21:03
this is an Aaron Shots number. He looked
00:21:05
at DVOA of the conference finalists
00:21:10
and this year's matchup in the NFC
00:21:12
between the Rams and the Seahawks is not
00:21:15
only the highest in the history of the
00:21:16
DVOA, but like by a long shot the
00:21:19
highest. So the
00:21:20
>> these these two teams are at the top of
00:21:22
most people's power rankings and not by
00:21:24
a little bit and they happen to be
00:21:26
playing in the in the NFC champ. I had
00:21:28
Aaron on, as you guys remember, a couple
00:21:30
weeks ago and he was mentioning that in
00:21:32
the last like 10 years based on DVOA, uh
00:21:36
Seattle and the Rams were the two best
00:21:38
teams like in the last 10 years or in
00:21:40
the top five of the last 10 years.
00:21:42
>> Remind me guys, what's the D stand for?
00:21:44
It's value of of average. Is it? What's
00:21:46
the D?
00:21:48
>> That's a good question that I don't know
00:21:49
the answer to right off the end.
00:21:52
Let's keep going though, Eric. So on the
00:21:56
other side though, you've got New
00:21:57
England against a completely hamstrung
00:22:00
Denver Broncos. And so it's it's really
00:22:03
unfortunate that we don't get to see the
00:22:05
Bon Knicks version of the Broncos make
00:22:07
this kind of four strong teams. Drake
00:22:09
May and the and the Pats continue to
00:22:11
kind of surprise I suppose. Um and it
00:22:15
looks like in all odds unless STDM can
00:22:19
do something that Nick Fos has done
00:22:21
before. So you've evaluated this I know
00:22:23
in Massie Peab buddy. Is it surprising
00:22:25
to you that the quarterback is worth
00:22:28
seven points?
00:22:30
>> Top quarterbacks I believe we've kind of
00:22:33
you know back back of the envelope
00:22:35
estimated around their top.
00:22:36
>> That is right. Okay. So that doesn't
00:22:38
surprise you then because I
00:22:39
>> Is Boone a top quarterback? I don't I
00:22:41
don't know. I mean that's a lot of
00:22:43
value. Seven points is 20.
00:22:44
>> It's a lot of it's a lot of value%.
00:22:46
>> I would not have thought Bon Knicks was
00:22:48
worth seven
00:22:48
>> but
00:22:49
>> that's what it is. I mean, that's what
00:22:50
the betting lines are saying because I
00:22:51
think Denver would have been favored by
00:22:53
one and a half and now they're underdog
00:22:55
by five and a half.
00:22:57
>> It's a big move.
00:22:59
It's a big move. It depends on the It
00:23:01
depends on the backup quarterback, of
00:23:03
course. I mean, STDM has like three
00:23:04
starts in his life, three professional
00:23:07
starts.
00:23:10
So, super disappointing on that front.
00:23:14
We are going to shift gears now because
00:23:17
we've got our guest for the second half
00:23:19
of the show rolling in. We're talking
00:23:21
football, but we've been talking pro
00:23:22
football. We want to shift gears and
00:23:24
talk a little bit of college football
00:23:25
here in the second half of the show.
00:23:28
Guest this half and it's been a while
00:23:30
since we've seen Ty, but Ty Hildenbrand
00:23:32
is joining us. Ty is the co-host of
00:23:34
Solid Verbal. We think we've been around
00:23:36
a while. We're hitting our 12th
00:23:38
anniversary this year. hitting their,
00:23:42
you know, 18th sometime this year.
00:23:44
They've been around since ' 08. He and
00:23:46
Dan Rubenstein do a terrific show on
00:23:48
college football. Independent. They're
00:23:50
independent of everybody else and they
00:23:51
probably got the largest audience out
00:23:53
there. Ty is from around the corner here
00:23:55
in Pennsylvania. I say here even though
00:23:58
I'm not in the moment, Pennsylvania
00:23:59
around the corner from Penn. He's up in
00:24:01
Allentown. Ty has been with us in studio
00:24:05
multiple times. It's a pleasure always
00:24:07
to get time with you, Ty. Welcome to the
00:24:09
show.
00:24:10
Okay, gentlemen, it is a pleasure as
00:24:12
always. Thank you for the invite.
00:24:14
>> Yes, glad to have you. We've missed your
00:24:16
your dulit tones, your this gorgeous
00:24:19
radio voice that Ty Hillbrandt brings.
00:24:21
We we should have him on every quarter
00:24:22
or so just to like improve the sound
00:24:24
quality of our show. Give us some more,
00:24:27
Ty. What are you doing this morning? How
00:24:28
you feeling after last night?
00:24:29
>> I will take that as a compliment. Thank
00:24:30
you.
00:24:32
>> How tell us what's on your mind. You you
00:24:33
you had a big the you know, your season
00:24:36
culminated last night. Um, y'all did a a
00:24:38
a a real time show and then you did your
00:24:42
usual recap afterwards. So, I know you
00:24:43
did a lot of talking. I'm curious as you
00:24:45
woke up this morning and thought about
00:24:46
that game, what what aspects of the game
00:24:49
stood out to you? Like, what's on your
00:24:51
mind about that game? Was
00:24:55
>> Well, I mean, I think a couple things. I
00:24:58
mean, first off, as you know, I'm sure
00:25:02
Indiana came in uh a touchdown touchdown
00:25:05
and a half, eight, eight and a half
00:25:06
point favorite, depending on where you
00:25:07
looked. And so, there was an expectation
00:25:10
that they were going to win the game. I
00:25:13
think what stood out to me just sort of
00:25:16
in the flow of things is even though
00:25:18
there were plenty of instances
00:25:20
throughout the course of that one where
00:25:22
Miami could have wilted and maybe could
00:25:25
have gone the way of say Oregon or
00:25:28
Alabama as we saw earlier in the
00:25:29
playoff. Miami adjusted and that's not
00:25:32
something that they get a lot of credit
00:25:33
for. Often we're making jokes about
00:25:35
Crystal Ball and how he goes into a
00:25:37
shell and plays very conservatively but
00:25:39
we didn't really see that in the second
00:25:40
half. We saw Miami answer in a really
00:25:42
meaningful way. They damn nearly won the
00:25:44
game. So I think to their credit, they
00:25:47
acquitted themselves really, really
00:25:48
well. And on the Indiana side of things,
00:25:51
I mean, it really was just moments. I
00:25:54
saw our friend Bill Connelly from
00:25:55
ESPN.com posted his postgame win
00:25:58
expectancy was at 14.1%
00:26:01
in favor of Miami. Like overwhelmingly
00:26:04
in favor of Miami given the way that the
00:26:06
game and the stats all shaked out. But
00:26:08
the fact that Indiana will still able to
00:26:10
win that game is I think a testament to
00:26:12
the process that Curt Signetti has in
00:26:15
place and really just this mindset of
00:26:17
winning moments. You don't have to be
00:26:19
perfect, but just winning on the margins
00:26:21
largely is what we saw them do on Monday
00:26:23
night. And uh as such, they get their
00:26:25
first national championship and the
00:26:27
sport's first ever 16-0
00:26:30
uh record. So congratulations to the
00:26:32
Hooers.
00:26:32
>> No doubt.
00:26:33
>> Yale in 1894 went 16 and0. Are you
00:26:36
selling us short here?
00:26:38
Yeah. Come on, Ty. Let's say modern era.
00:26:42
Okay. Modern era.
00:26:44
>> Audi, leave it to Audi. We were just
00:26:45
talking about where, you know, focus
00:26:47
focus on the past. Dwell focus.
00:26:50
>> Ty, just to name some of the moments, I
00:26:52
I the block punt kind of doesn't count.
00:26:54
Block punt is a separate thing, but like
00:26:55
those two fourth down conversions on the
00:26:58
touchdown that there wasn't quite there.
00:27:00
Was it? Yeah, it was their last. It was
00:27:01
their last touchdown. And then later
00:27:03
when they're trying to burn clock that
00:27:05
third down conversion, this vital third
00:27:07
down conversion like another another
00:27:09
back shoulder fade. Um those are the
00:27:11
moments that I think of. Is that what
00:27:12
you're thinking about when you say the
00:27:13
key moments those offensive conversions?
00:27:17
>> Yeah. Offensive conversions. I mean even
00:27:20
if you want to boil it down to the more
00:27:22
fundamental stuff like for the most part
00:27:25
tackling Malachi Tony when they try to
00:27:28
get him in space on a quick throw or
00:27:30
something of that nature. I mean that
00:27:31
that was very much how Miami made hay
00:27:34
this year. Wasn't the most explosive
00:27:36
team in college football, but they had a
00:27:38
bunch of guys who were just really good
00:27:39
in space and they were ultimately pretty
00:27:41
good at finding ways to get them the
00:27:42
ball and let them do what they do. We
00:27:44
have seen that work to some effect here
00:27:46
throughout the course of the playoffs.
00:27:48
Even though Miami has tended to play a
00:27:50
little bit more of a slugfest variety of
00:27:51
football, but clearly the game against
00:27:53
Old Miss went a little bit of a
00:27:54
different direction. Nonetheless, we
00:27:57
they've done that a lot this year. And
00:27:58
so for me coming into this one it was at
00:28:01
can Indiana tackle can Indiana tackle
00:28:03
these guys who are just raw athletes in
00:28:06
space and uh they did a pretty good job
00:28:07
of it. They weren't perfect again but um
00:28:10
just moments like that finding a way to
00:28:13
get a guy on the ground being very
00:28:15
disciplined. The zone coverage scheme
00:28:17
that they play is one that requires a
00:28:19
lot of discipline and really good
00:28:20
communication. So, it's not necessarily
00:28:23
a team comprised of first round talent,
00:28:25
though there will be some first round
00:28:27
players on that roster, but probably not
00:28:30
to the same extent as Miami. They're
00:28:31
just really good as a team together. And
00:28:34
so, when you've got that type of
00:28:35
synergy, when you've got that culture,
00:28:37
that shared sort of philosophy for how
00:28:39
to play defensive football and offensive
00:28:41
football to an extent, um you you tend
00:28:44
to see your team excel in some of those
00:28:46
margin moments. and uh we saw it on
00:28:49
display last night.
00:28:50
>> Eric,
00:28:51
>> yeah, I was just wondering, it's really
00:28:53
a two-part question, but it's the same
00:28:54
question. If if yesterday's game were
00:28:58
the only game you saw are Fernando
00:29:01
Mendoza,
00:29:02
would you say he's the number one pick
00:29:04
in the draft? And number two, is it
00:29:07
obvious to you if we project out three
00:29:09
or four years
00:29:11
who's going to be the better pro
00:29:13
quarterback, Carson Beck or Mendoza?
00:29:16
It's so I have some thoughts, but I'd
00:29:19
love to hear your thoughts on that.
00:29:21
>> All right, part one. The answer is no.
00:29:24
Based on what we saw from Mendoza last
00:29:26
night, I I would not be inclined to say
00:29:28
he looks like he is going to be a slam
00:29:30
dunk in the NFL. Now, if that again to
00:29:32
your point, if that's only the only game
00:29:34
I saw, I I'm not going to go on a limb
00:29:36
and say that uh he projects as the
00:29:39
surefire number one overall pick given
00:29:41
the course of the season and what we saw
00:29:44
from him over the course of the year and
00:29:46
what I think we know about him as both a
00:29:48
student of the game, as somebody who
00:29:49
studies this stuff and has an innate
00:29:51
working knowledge of pre-nap, postnap
00:29:54
processing, that type of thing. I I
00:29:56
think all of that is far and away very
00:29:59
appealing to somebody that you're
00:30:00
thinking about picking at the next level
00:30:01
in the NFL. So, I I think he'll be fine
00:30:04
at the next level, but that was not the
00:30:05
best game of his that we saw last night.
00:30:07
He had moments again, but certainly not
00:30:09
the best version of Fernando Mendoza
00:30:12
that we saw. And it's no coincidence
00:30:13
that it probably was against one of the
00:30:15
best, if not the best defensive lines
00:30:16
that he saw here.
00:30:17
>> That was my point. and that you may see
00:30:19
a lot more of that in the NFL and
00:30:21
therefore
00:30:23
>> but also he'll have a better offensive
00:30:24
line in the NFL too.
00:30:26
>> That's right. That's right.
00:30:27
>> What about him versus Carson Beck only
00:30:29
in the sense of if you look Well, I I
00:30:32
think I I haven't seen any stats on it.
00:30:34
Maybe you have. I think we could argue
00:30:35
Carson Beck just who's got the stronger
00:30:37
arm. Beck probably has the stronger arm.
00:30:41
That doesn't mean he's going to be a
00:30:42
better NFL quarterback at all. I'm just
00:30:45
asking you,
00:30:47
you know, how much uncertain, put a I
00:30:49
don't want to say this. Why not? We're a
00:30:50
stats show. If you had to put a
00:30:52
probability
00:30:54
that Mendoza is going to be a better NFL
00:30:56
quarterback than Beck, what probability
00:30:59
would you give on that?
00:31:00
>> That's good, good question, Audi, we
00:31:02
want your answer as well.
00:31:03
>> I'd say I' I'd say about 70%. Um, and
00:31:09
you know, one of one of the biggest
00:31:13
issues I think you see in guys going
00:31:15
from college to pro ball and uh, you
00:31:18
know, I know you guys again care a lot
00:31:20
about the stats, how these things change
00:31:23
over time. I know it's something that
00:31:24
you all study probably a lot closer than
00:31:26
I do, but you know, the game has changed
00:31:28
and that processing step going from
00:31:31
college to pro. It's like a completely
00:31:35
different stratosphere with the types of
00:31:36
things that they're doing at the pro
00:31:38
game. And even though we didn't see it
00:31:40
so much last night from Carson Beck, I
00:31:43
think his most recent track record,
00:31:44
let's just say over the last two seasons
00:31:46
of college football,
00:31:48
when they had to lean on him a little
00:31:50
bit more at Georgia,
00:31:53
when they didn't have the ground game
00:31:54
that we're accustomed to seeing in
00:31:56
Athens from Kirby Smart.
00:31:57
>> Yeah.
00:31:58
>> Carson Beck wasn't as good.
00:31:59
>> Yep.
00:32:00
>> And I think we saw it again at moments
00:32:02
this year. He had a pretty good cast
00:32:03
around him. He did have a running game.
00:32:05
They weren't asking him to go out there
00:32:06
and throw for 350 yards per game. But
00:32:09
again, we saw it moments this season,
00:32:12
notably in that Louisville game earlier
00:32:13
in the year where you can confuse them.
00:32:15
He threw four interceptions. It could
00:32:16
have been more in that game. So, I just
00:32:18
think the ability to confuse Beck is is
00:32:22
a very real thing that needs to be taken
00:32:25
into account when we have this
00:32:26
conversation. And not to say he can't
00:32:28
confuse any quarterback, but I just
00:32:29
think Mendoza is a little bit quicker
00:32:31
when it comes to processing post snaps.
00:32:33
So, I'm I tend to come down on the
00:32:34
Mendoza side of this one a lot more
00:32:36
definitively.
00:32:38
>> The 70 is a strong number. And I love
00:32:40
what he did there, Eric. He said, "I see
00:32:41
your stronger arm." Like, we can argue
00:32:43
it, but let's just grant back the
00:32:44
stronger arm, and I'm going to give you
00:32:46
better processing speed. And this is
00:32:47
something I think the NFL has learned.
00:32:49
They have a hard time with it every time
00:32:50
because every year because you fall in
00:32:52
love with arms, but I think they've
00:32:53
learned that processing speed matters
00:32:55
more than AR.
00:32:56
>> Can I ask if there's any data on have we
00:32:59
looked maybe even just narratives? Have
00:33:02
we looked at the the every year lots of
00:33:04
quarterbacks get their opportunities
00:33:06
coming out of college. Is there any
00:33:08
consistent story that people tell about
00:33:10
why those who don't make it don't make
00:33:12
it? And if it has to do with processing
00:33:16
>> there processing
00:33:18
go ahead.
00:33:21
>> Yeah. I I mean I I was just going to say
00:33:22
I think processing is one of the things
00:33:24
that they they try to get a handle on.
00:33:26
Uh they'll look at stats like time to
00:33:28
throw versus completion percentage
00:33:30
versus just some of the stuff that you
00:33:32
could find if you go on some of the
00:33:33
advanced analytical sites. Um you know,
00:33:36
as as you know, this is a big business,
00:33:37
so they'll go all the way down to hand
00:33:39
size and things of that nature. Um my my
00:33:41
hunch is just knowing, you know, h how
00:33:44
these things tend to go, they they tend
00:33:45
to factor in as much as they can and
00:33:48
then tell whatever story makes the most
00:33:50
sense. To your point, Cade, given that
00:33:52
the Raiders are drafting first, that to
00:33:55
me is interesting because even though it
00:33:57
seems like Mendoza will be the overall
00:33:58
surefire pick,
00:34:01
the Raiders are a franchise throughout
00:34:03
their storyried past that tend to get
00:34:06
really romantic over a guy who's quick
00:34:09
or a guy who can throw the ball a
00:34:10
country mile. They're not always focused
00:34:12
on the full package. Um, which I to a
00:34:15
large extent Mendoza has. I don't think
00:34:17
he's a perfect prospect, but I'm I'm
00:34:19
curious to see nonetheless, though I
00:34:21
think he will be the number one pick,
00:34:23
what they surround him with and how they
00:34:25
try to bring him along with a new coach
00:34:26
because um there's not a great recent
00:34:29
track record right now for uh them
00:34:31
turning, you know, uh college prospects
00:34:35
into all pros.
00:34:36
>> Well, of course, Tom Brady is advising
00:34:38
them and so that should be interesting,
00:34:40
right? Um but I just want to ask you
00:34:42
another question about to's point. I
00:34:44
think Cade mentioned earlier on the
00:34:45
show, which was I would imagine one
00:34:49
thing you could do, like I was lamenting
00:34:51
Josh Allen, but not so the four
00:34:53
turnovers, yes, but more so him missing
00:34:56
the tight end. But at least I'll go I
00:34:58
want to talk about what Cade said there.
00:35:01
At least he went to the right guy. He
00:35:03
didn't complete it. Like there's two
00:35:04
sources of error. One is I went to the
00:35:07
wrong receiver in the sense of expected
00:35:10
points or expected yards or I missed
00:35:13
that receiver. Those are two different
00:35:14
errors. Couldn't that be measured?
00:35:17
Couldn't we look at whether Carson Beck
00:35:20
goes to the given where everybody is on
00:35:22
the field and the situation? Couldn't we
00:35:26
look at the correctness of choice for
00:35:28
quarterbacks and score people that way
00:35:31
and then separate that out from the
00:35:33
error? I miss that person.
00:35:36
>> Well, so two points on that, right? The
00:35:38
the first thing is I don't know if I've
00:35:40
found a way yet to to quantify that. At
00:35:42
least that's in some sort of public
00:35:44
arena that I can digest it. But my hunch
00:35:47
is that that type of thing is already
00:35:48
going on when they're scouting in
00:35:50
advance of making these picks. Um
00:35:52
there's a ton of tape on all these guys.
00:35:54
I'm sure that there are people going
00:35:55
through that with a fine tooth comb. But
00:35:57
then there are other things, and I think
00:35:58
this is something that flies a little
00:36:00
bit more in the face of somebody like
00:36:01
Beck. Um, PFF is an example of some
00:36:04
place that tracks turnover worthy throws
00:36:07
and things of that nature. So, it's not
00:36:10
necessarily saying that he's going to
00:36:12
the right place, but it is some sort of
00:36:14
gauge over the accuracy of the throw. Is
00:36:17
he throwing into traffic? Is he taking
00:36:19
risks that don't need to be there? Those
00:36:21
types of stats. And I don't have that
00:36:23
one in front of me, unfortunately, but I
00:36:24
could get it. I know that's something
00:36:26
that Beck has struggled with here over
00:36:28
the last two seasons of college ball.
00:36:31
It's making sure not only he's going to
00:36:33
the right spot, but that it's an
00:36:34
accurate throw. And so that I think is
00:36:37
one area where my hunch is if we looked
00:36:40
at the numbers comparing Mendoza to back
00:36:42
in that capacity, that's an area where
00:36:44
it would be a clear advantage for
00:36:45
Mendoza.
00:36:46
>> Of course, I'm sitting here just one
00:36:47
last thing on this exact point. I'm just
00:36:49
wondering which one's more teachable.
00:36:51
Can you which one would you rather like
00:36:53
if I told you you could have someone
00:36:55
with great making great choices but
00:36:58
weaker accuracy or someone with greater
00:37:00
accuracy but weaker choices which would
00:37:03
you which do you think is more
00:37:04
coachable? I want both but if it and
00:37:08
yeah that's my question. I have no idea
00:37:10
but it's an interesting question because
00:37:12
that has implications for who you draft.
00:37:15
I I want the more coachable guy. I want
00:37:18
the more coachable guy who wants to be a
00:37:20
student of the game and you know can can
00:37:22
understand. I mean look I nobody
00:37:24
Fernando Mendoza is a deceptively good
00:37:27
athlete and we have seen him use his
00:37:29
legs. We have seen him have a real
00:37:32
innate sense of the pocket around him.
00:37:34
He is clearly a good athlete. He is not
00:37:36
a statue back there. You're not going to
00:37:38
confuse him with Lamar Jackson. That is
00:37:41
just not his game. He also doesn't have
00:37:43
the strongest arm in the world. It's not
00:37:45
a bad arm. he's going to be the first
00:37:46
overall pick, but let's not act like
00:37:48
he's Brett Favre. The fact that the fact
00:37:51
of the matter is his processing and his
00:37:54
ability to digest tape and recognize
00:37:58
before the snap and after the snap what
00:38:00
is what's going on that has propelled
00:38:02
him now to new heights to win the
00:38:04
Heisman Trophy and to be in this
00:38:06
conversation for the number one overall
00:38:08
pick. I would almost always rather
00:38:10
provided we're not talking about like a
00:38:11
full-on pop gun arm. I would always
00:38:14
rather the guy who knows where to go
00:38:15
with the ball, can digest what's
00:38:16
happening around him, but can play
00:38:18
quick. So, I would probably go Mendoza
00:38:20
in that in that.
00:38:22
>> All right, Ty, I want to ask you one
00:38:23
other Indiana question, then we want to
00:38:24
move to some more general college
00:38:26
football topics. The other Indiana
00:38:27
question I have for you sounds absurd,
00:38:28
but I think this is actually what I what
00:38:30
I'm curious about. Signetti, overrated
00:38:33
or underrated? And it's absurd because
00:38:35
he's been praised to the moon lately.
00:38:37
They praise Indiana so much over the
00:38:38
last month that I started pulling from
00:38:40
Miami just to get over it. It's just
00:38:42
ridiculous how much praise. But in the
00:38:44
end, I wonder in the end I wonder
00:38:46
whether we're undervaluing what Signiti
00:38:50
did here and we're talking about the
00:38:52
Portal and Indiana and James Madison
00:38:54
transfers and all that stuff. And I
00:38:56
mean, so maybe it's replicable because
00:38:57
other schools do, but maybe he's just
00:38:59
this unicorn of a coach that you're
00:39:02
never going to replicate because we had
00:39:03
Sabin in front of us for all those years
00:39:05
and nobody could replicate Sabin. So
00:39:07
Signetti, overrated or underrated?
00:39:12
I think he's underrated. And it's it's
00:39:16
>> it's crazy to even say it, but
00:39:19
consider the context here for Indiana.
00:39:23
This is a program with 715 losses in its
00:39:27
program history. I believe that is the
00:39:30
most in the 156 years or the last 156
00:39:34
years of college football. So, it's not
00:39:36
like he was hitting the ground running
00:39:39
at a place like a Georgia or even a
00:39:42
place like a Texas Tech where there was
00:39:44
something of a football tradition.
00:39:45
>> They had three Big 10 wins in the
00:39:47
previous three seasons before you got
00:39:49
there. Three in conference wins in
00:39:52
years.
00:39:54
>> Exactly. So, not all situations are
00:39:57
created equal. And
00:40:00
also, as you know, college football has
00:40:02
changed very quickly. Everybody is
00:40:04
taking a boatload of transfers at this
00:40:06
point. Not everyone's taking 40, but
00:40:09
most are taking anywhere between 5 to 10
00:40:11
to plug some holes depending on what you
00:40:13
need. So, everybody is doing the same
00:40:15
thing in the transfer portal. Everybody
00:40:17
is going out there. Everyone's trying to
00:40:18
boost their roster in whichever way they
00:40:20
see fit. And Signetti was able to take a
00:40:23
program that was dead,
00:40:25
completely boot it up from scratch,
00:40:28
basically install a new operating
00:40:30
system, and get this thing running at
00:40:32
optimum efficiency
00:40:34
in 26 months.
00:40:37
He's got 27 wins in 26 months, and now a
00:40:40
national championship. So for him to
00:40:42
turn this around as quickly as he did
00:40:45
and get them playing at this level with
00:40:49
guys in both seasons that were cobbled
00:40:51
together from other programs, whether
00:40:53
they were castoffs or just guys he
00:40:55
wanted to bring with him from his
00:40:56
previous stop. Whatever the case, for
00:40:58
him to do this as quickly as he has done
00:41:01
it, to me that indicates you can't
00:41:04
handwave this thing and just say, "Oh,
00:41:05
it's the it's the transfer portal." He
00:41:07
got lucky with his guys. He won 11 games
00:41:10
in year one. He obviously went 16 and0
00:41:12
this year. Whatever he is doing,
00:41:14
whatever his process looks like, and
00:41:17
there's been much written about, they
00:41:18
practice a little bit less. They're a
00:41:20
little bit more focused on communication
00:41:22
and discipline, and it's a little bit of
00:41:24
a different setup, but it's very process
00:41:26
driven. Whatever that is is clearly
00:41:30
working to a degree that nobody saw
00:41:32
coming. So, I just I don't know how you
00:41:34
can look at what he's done over the last
00:41:36
two years and feel like he's he's
00:41:38
overrated at this point. I mean, maybe
00:41:40
he's not underrated, but he's certainly
00:41:42
not overrated given what we have seen
00:41:44
now over the last two seasons.
00:41:47
>> Yeah, I was just wondering, so I
00:41:48
actually just looked quickly. It's easy
00:41:49
to find. I just looked at their record
00:41:51
this year. I don't know if this is worth
00:41:52
anything to evaluate coaching, but I did
00:41:55
just look at their record against the
00:41:57
spread.
00:41:59
And so they're about the 30th team in
00:42:02
the in the college football this year
00:42:03
against the spread. Now maybe it's
00:42:05
because him as a coach is already built
00:42:08
into the line. So that could be one
00:42:10
explanation for it. Or it could be, you
00:42:13
know, he has really good talent. He's
00:42:16
performing well compared to that talent,
00:42:19
but not extraordinarily well. Is that
00:42:21
worth anything to you? I mean, I'm not
00:42:23
saying that's the right way to measure
00:42:24
it. I'm just asking your question. They
00:42:25
were 10 and six this year against the
00:42:27
spread.
00:42:30
Yeah, I mean, and there was a crazy stat
00:42:33
before and I'm going to blank on it a
00:42:35
little bit now before the game where his
00:42:37
record when he is a touchdown or more
00:42:39
favorite is just off the charts. And I I
00:42:44
think what has
00:42:45
>> in a good way in a good way
00:42:48
>> and what I think has very much defined
00:42:50
his early tenure now as Indiana coach is
00:42:54
something we can't really quantify and
00:42:56
maybe this is as close as we'll get to
00:42:58
it but killer instinct. Killer instinct.
00:43:01
It's the thing that Mario Crystalall has
00:43:03
been criticized for not having at times
00:43:06
but signetti goes for the throat. He
00:43:09
will try to take you out. He put up 63
00:43:11
points at Illinois, right? He obviously
00:43:15
destroyed both Alabama and Oregon. The
00:43:17
guy knows how to keep playing and keep
00:43:19
his foot on the gas when his teams get
00:43:21
up.
00:43:22
>> So, we can talk a lot about him winning
00:43:24
on the margins.
00:43:25
>> Go ahead.
00:43:26
>> I just want to add one element to that
00:43:28
because I I think you're raising
00:43:29
something interesting and true, but it
00:43:31
may be underappreciated yet. It's not
00:43:32
just it's not just keeping your foot in
00:43:34
the grass, even though it is that. And
00:43:35
there are plenty of coaches, we've all
00:43:37
had coaches of our teams who got too
00:43:39
conservative with the lead because
00:43:41
there's a little risk. The the key to
00:43:43
making that interesting is that there's
00:43:45
risk involved. It's like his going for
00:43:47
the touchdown last night on fourth and
00:43:49
five instead of the field goal. He's
00:43:51
like, I'm going for the kill. And it's
00:43:53
only interesting because there's
00:43:54
downside risk to this choice. And it
00:43:57
made me as a Texas fan, it made me think
00:43:59
immediately of Kirby Smart's onside kick
00:44:02
after they went up whatever they went up
00:44:05
10 or something um over Texas in the
00:44:08
regular season game this past year and
00:44:09
then shocking everybody onside kicked
00:44:12
recovered and scored the game that put
00:44:14
scored the there's risk there. It's not
00:44:16
it's not interesting to just say it's
00:44:18
not as interesting to say killer
00:44:19
instinct. I kick them when I'm down.
00:44:21
It's like no I take extra risk to put
00:44:23
them away. I'm willing to do that
00:44:25
because most coaches get conservative in
00:44:27
those situations opposed to even dialing
00:44:29
up the risk in order to get it done.
00:44:32
>> Yeah. And the the other thing that I was
00:44:34
going to add to the question about
00:44:36
Indiana versus the spread, you're right,
00:44:39
30th in their win percentage versus the
00:44:42
spread. They were first in terms of
00:44:43
their covering points per game, right?
00:44:45
So, they were covering by a larger
00:44:47
margin when they covered than almost
00:44:49
every other team than than in fact every
00:44:51
other team in college football. So, you
00:44:54
know, that that sort of underscores the
00:44:55
point of Signetti, as you said, K just
00:44:59
doing whatever he can to put teams away.
00:45:01
It might be worth the risk. If it works
00:45:04
out for you, great. You're going to get
00:45:06
a win. You're going to put the game on
00:45:07
ice. If not, then that's a conversation.
00:45:09
But, um, he he has just had a really
00:45:11
innate sense for when to push a little
00:45:14
bit harder, when to roll the dice. We
00:45:16
saw it on fourth and five in the
00:45:18
national championship game on that
00:45:19
quarterback draw for Fernando Mendoza.
00:45:21
just they have a really good sense right
00:45:23
now when they've got the wind at their
00:45:25
back for when they should push a little
00:45:28
bit harder and take those chances. I
00:45:30
just love that call cuz as Kate brought
00:45:32
up earlier, there's so many things about
00:45:34
that situation. You're up three, you
00:45:37
could go up six up six, you know, oh,
00:45:41
you don't get it. Oh, then the other
00:45:42
team is not as aggressive because they
00:45:44
try to kick the field. There's so much
00:45:46
about that that that will be talked
00:45:48
about from an analytics but even a
00:45:50
psychology perspective and a you know go
00:45:53
for the kill perspective for years
00:45:55
that's almost was like the perfect storm
00:45:57
of even if the quote unquote as Audi
00:46:00
said earlier too the analytics had it
00:46:02
even you know there's so much other
00:46:06
stuff that suggests going for it there
00:46:09
and the the only other point that I
00:46:11
would add on that play all the things
00:46:14
that we're talking about here with
00:46:15
Signetti. I mean, what it amounts to is
00:46:17
the right players in the right scheme in
00:46:21
the right process at the right time.
00:46:23
That play was, I think, something that
00:46:28
signifies what the entire Curt Signetti
00:46:30
experience has been about so far. You've
00:46:32
got this quarterback in Fernando Mendoza
00:46:35
who's a good enough athlete, but knows
00:46:37
how to process. You've got the
00:46:40
preparation, which is what told them
00:46:42
that's why they called the timeout. and
00:46:43
the preparation is what told them what
00:46:45
type of defense to expect. Fernando
00:46:48
Mendoza and his ability to process is
00:46:51
what told him at the line of scrimmage
00:46:52
that Miami was in fact not in that
00:46:54
defense that they were in something of a
00:46:56
hybrid coverage and he made the call on
00:46:59
his own after they snapped the ball. It
00:47:02
was if it was man coverage, they were
00:47:04
throwing it. If it was zone coverage, he
00:47:06
was supposed to run it. They played half
00:47:07
man, half zone. He decides to run it. He
00:47:10
trusts in his own process. He puts a
00:47:12
move on a guy, kind of sidesteps him and
00:47:14
ends up takes a shot, but ends up diving
00:47:17
into the end zone to give them that
00:47:19
10-point cushion. So, that play in and
00:47:21
of itself, I think, was a really
00:47:22
interesting microcosm for the Signetti
00:47:24
experience so far, and how it really is
00:47:27
just the right process, the right
00:47:29
players, knowing what to do, doing the
00:47:31
the little things on the margin a little
00:47:33
bit better than the opponent.
00:47:34
>> Do we get to do I get to ask Tai Cade
00:47:36
what would be a successful season for
00:47:37
Indiana next year? So, what does So,
00:47:40
what now? So, they went to 11 wins.
00:47:42
Obviously, a great season. I just don't
00:47:43
remember. Did they make the playoffs
00:47:45
last season?
00:47:45
>> Yes. And they got smoked.
00:47:47
>> They did. They They made the playoffs
00:47:49
with 11 wins. Um, lost to Notre Dame in
00:47:52
the playoff, but uh that was sort of
00:47:54
Kurt Signetti's coming out party. It It
00:47:57
was a very big deal.
00:47:58
>> What's the expectation now? Like, is it
00:48:01
Let me think about it. Let's They're
00:48:02
thinking about expanding to 16 teams,
00:48:04
but let's pretend they stay at 12 for
00:48:06
now. Um, is it like anything worse than
00:48:09
I'll call it final four a bad season?
00:48:11
Now,
00:48:13
>> I think you got to get back to the
00:48:15
playoff.
00:48:16
I think I think if you lose in the
00:48:18
playoff, um, you know, that's that's
00:48:21
understandable. You're not going to be
00:48:23
able to replicate this every year. Most
00:48:25
most recent fans understand that. But
00:48:27
there is a there is an element here of
00:48:29
like once you fly in first class once or
00:48:32
fly on the private jet that's just sort
00:48:34
of who you want to be, you know, and uh
00:48:37
I I'm Indiana's a very big institution
00:48:41
as I'm sure sure you gentlemen know.
00:48:43
It's got a huge alumni base, the largest
00:48:46
living alumni base in the country. This
00:48:48
is a program that uh is going to want to
00:48:51
reinvest in this football program and
00:48:52
they're going to want to try and
00:48:53
replicate the success as much as they
00:48:55
can. So, I we were looking at their
00:48:57
schedule a little bit last night. I
00:48:59
mean, they've got a really strong portal
00:49:00
class again coming in next year. It's
00:49:02
going to be much of the same
00:49:03
conversation, even though there'll be
00:49:05
some new faces. Um, I I would expect 10
00:49:08
wins. I I think it the expectation
00:49:10
starts at 10 wins. Of course, you get an
00:49:12
injury. I mean, a lot can happen over
00:49:13
the course of a year, but uh if I'm an
00:49:15
Indiana fan, knowing that they've got
00:49:17
this train rolling now with Signetti and
00:49:19
that talent is is seemingly a little bit
00:49:22
more apt to go there, uh you
00:49:25
If I were a fan, I would expect I would
00:49:27
want 10 wins to get into the playoff and
00:49:29
give themselves another shot.
00:49:32
>> All right. Um, Mendoza's little brother,
00:49:34
who was a backup quarterback this year,
00:49:35
announced for the portal this morning.
00:49:37
So, that's because they've pulled in uh
00:49:40
Josh Hoover from TCU.
00:49:42
Unless you're a real football college
00:49:44
football guy, you may not know Hoover
00:49:46
TCU quarterback. One of the highest
00:49:47
regarded prospects in the in the college
00:49:50
football right now. So, he's got his
00:49:52
supposed Mendoza lined up. Ty, talking
00:49:56
about the portal, I one of the things I
00:49:58
want to talk about with you a little bit
00:49:59
here, and I want the guys to get at
00:50:00
least a little bit of this before they
00:50:02
have to roll off is the portal itself.
00:50:05
And I think of you as being in touch as
00:50:08
in touch with college football fandom as
00:50:10
anybody out there. I can't think of
00:50:11
anybody better than you and Dan asked
00:50:13
this question to. like what is the
00:50:15
current vibe on the portal and and
00:50:18
therefore
00:50:19
what do you think the consequences are
00:50:21
going to be of the portal world we live
00:50:23
in now and of course it may change but
00:50:26
where and on our current trajectory what
00:50:28
are the consequences pro and con of the
00:50:30
portal and I want to say one thing about
00:50:32
it before I give it to you last year
00:50:35
which is the first full year of the
00:50:36
portal being a fan of a big school you
00:50:39
and Dan are fan of fans of big schools
00:50:41
so Ty went to Penn State he was raised
00:50:43
in a nerd family. Those are his schools.
00:50:45
Dan Rubenstein, his partner, Oregon guy.
00:50:48
So, we we're kind of the alpha schools.
00:50:50
I'm a UT guy. So, it's like, yes, the
00:50:52
portal. Give me all your players. You
00:50:54
know, that's kind of the initial vibe.
00:50:56
And then 2025 rolls around and all of a
00:50:58
sudden tide turns and other programs
00:51:02
start stealing all our young players.
00:51:04
And you realize it doesn't it's not it's
00:51:06
not a one-way street here that the that
00:51:08
the Blueb Bloods just can't sit on top
00:51:10
of it and be fed. they're actually going
00:51:12
to get robbed as well. So, it's more of
00:51:15
an equilibrium than we thought and it's
00:51:17
a new experience for some of us. And I
00:51:19
could use a little therapy about it. But
00:51:21
more generally, I'm just curious. It's a
00:51:23
no 3,000 4,000 something like that
00:51:26
players change teams. I think 4,000 went
00:51:28
in maybe 3,000 changed teams. I It's
00:51:30
unbelievable.
00:51:32
I'm curious you, Ty, from your
00:51:34
perspective, what's the vibe? What are
00:51:37
the consequences?
00:51:41
Uh fans are exhausted
00:51:44
from the transfer portal. Um college
00:51:46
football, if it weren't enough that
00:51:49
college football changes the rules like
00:51:50
every two years and they make people
00:51:53
relearn the playoff system, the
00:51:56
conferences,
00:51:58
whether guys can get money. I mean,
00:52:00
think of all the things that have
00:52:01
changed just in the last 5 years. The
00:52:04
portal is only accelerating. It is
00:52:07
basically non-stop free agency. If you
00:52:10
root for pro sports, you know how
00:52:11
dizzying free agency can be. Whether
00:52:14
you're a baseball, a basketball,
00:52:15
football fan, I mean, it's it's a lot.
00:52:18
So, the fact that this is always going
00:52:20
on all the time, I think has left fans,
00:52:23
at least people that write into us,
00:52:26
tired of it, exhausted by it. Now, that
00:52:29
being said, a we make content, so from
00:52:33
our standpoint, it's a lot to talk
00:52:34
about, and it's interesting. It's
00:52:36
interesting to have guys kind of find
00:52:38
themselves in new situations. Josh
00:52:39
Hoover who wanted to go to to Indiana
00:52:42
initially ends up at TCU now he's going
00:52:44
back to India. Like you get these really
00:52:45
odd pairings that you wouldn't have
00:52:47
thought otherwise. And there's a little
00:52:49
bit of like mystique to it now with how
00:52:51
much is so and so getting paid. Is he
00:52:53
really worth all that much? You have
00:52:54
that whole component to it which I think
00:52:56
is is an interesting conversation.
00:52:59
But the pros and cons side of this is
00:53:02
very intriguing. The pros, I think, from
00:53:05
a fan standpoint is stories like we saw
00:53:08
with Indiana are now possible. This was
00:53:10
a gigantic proof of concept that a team
00:53:13
that started from the bottom is now
00:53:16
here.
00:53:18
>> Give me a break. That doesn't happen.
00:53:20
That wouldn't have happened 10 years
00:53:21
ago. Not in a million years.
00:53:22
>> Well, can it happen? Could it have
00:53:25
happened just over a very long period of
00:53:27
time as opposed to you know it's a
00:53:30
two-year turnaround from I don't know
00:53:31
how many you guys probably know what
00:53:33
they win three games the year before
00:53:35
Signetti got there. So they went from 3
00:53:36
to 11 to the 16 and0 national champion.
00:53:41
Yeah. Yeah, I mean it I'm not sure I
00:53:43
don't even have the number in front of
00:53:44
me what he was the year what they were
00:53:45
the year before he got there, but like
00:53:48
yeah, I I suspect and and we've seen
00:53:51
this, right? I mean, there there have
00:53:52
been some of those moments throughout
00:53:55
the course of college football history
00:53:56
where a team out of nowhere has sort of
00:53:58
bubbled up, right? TCU is a fairly
00:54:00
recent example of a team a couple years
00:54:03
back played against Georgia, got
00:54:04
creamed, but they got there. They got
00:54:06
there. And among the TCU people I talked
00:54:09
to in that moment, they were just sort
00:54:11
of happy. They were happy to be there.
00:54:12
They felt like they were playing with
00:54:13
house money. There was no expectation
00:54:15
that that would carry on, that they
00:54:17
could replicate that anytime soon. But I
00:54:19
think that part of it has changed on the
00:54:22
fan side of things. To the earlier point
00:54:24
about what's a realistic expectation for
00:54:26
Indiana, they did it once, now there's
00:54:28
no reason to think in this climate where
00:54:30
people want to go to Indiana that they
00:54:33
can't do it again. So, I think just this
00:54:35
fact that some of the talent has now
00:54:37
been spread around college football,
00:54:39
it's really tough to hoard talent the
00:54:41
way that the SEC was doing five, six,
00:54:43
seven years ago. That makes it, I think,
00:54:45
a better fan experience. And I also
00:54:47
think from the player side of things,
00:54:49
it's good that they have some agency
00:54:51
that they can move around if they want
00:54:53
to, much like coaches can. That's all
00:54:55
good stuff. What's bad is that none of
00:54:59
this is sustainable right now, right?
00:55:01
So, we're all in a bit of a sugar rush.
00:55:04
At least the players and some of the
00:55:05
teams are that are heavily involved in
00:55:07
the transfer portal. But on some level,
00:55:10
there has to be guard rails put up to
00:55:13
kind of rein this thing in to enforce
00:55:15
contracts to make sure that we don't
00:55:18
have just just constant revolving door.
00:55:21
Um, on on some level, there will be a
00:55:24
question of return on investment. If
00:55:26
you're putting millions upon millions of
00:55:28
dollars into your chosen college
00:55:30
football team,
00:55:32
how is that worth it for you? Uh will
00:55:35
guys stop investing if suddenly the
00:55:38
bottom falls out one year and there are
00:55:40
a bunch of injuries and it it goes
00:55:41
south. So that whole side of it, the
00:55:44
financial component and just the
00:55:46
constant instability of things, I think
00:55:49
is a is a really like that is a blinking
00:55:52
red light that I know a lot of people
00:55:54
know about. I don't know what solves it.
00:55:57
Maybe it's making players officially
00:55:59
employees and giving them more binding
00:56:01
agreements once they're once they're at
00:56:03
a given institution. But um you know,
00:56:05
it's it's a really interesting push pull
00:56:07
right now between wanting to give the
00:56:08
players more power, which is how this
00:56:10
all started, but at the same time not
00:56:12
wanting to put college football in a
00:56:14
position where it's even more unstable
00:56:15
than it's been in the past.
00:56:17
>> Ty, you began that last part by saying
00:56:20
it's unsustainable. And I think that's a
00:56:22
word that many of us feel, but it could
00:56:26
be unsustainable for any number of
00:56:28
reasons. And if you had to put your
00:56:31
chips on what breaks, like what will
00:56:35
break that causes reform because
00:56:37
something has to break or come close to
00:56:39
breaking. So flashing red lights are not
00:56:41
enough. Someone has to like go through
00:56:42
the intersection and get hit before
00:56:44
something gets done about this thing.
00:56:45
What's going to break that's going to
00:56:47
lead to some kind of change? Well, we're
00:56:49
we're having a really interesting
00:56:51
example of that right now because amid
00:56:55
this national championship run or
00:56:57
playoff run, I guess I should say, for
00:56:59
Miami, uh Miami came to the realization
00:57:01
that they weren't going to get any of
00:57:03
the other portal quarterbacks and they
00:57:04
needed somebody for next year because
00:57:06
they want to keep this going too. And so
00:57:08
they turned their sights on Darien
00:57:11
Mensah, the quarterback from Duke, who
00:57:13
just resigned an agreement with Duke and
00:57:17
is now trying to throw his name in the
00:57:18
portal and take his talents to South
00:57:20
Beach. So, we're going to find out here
00:57:23
in relatively short order what happens
00:57:26
to that agreement. Duke has announced as
00:57:28
of earlier today that they're going to
00:57:30
sue Mensah. They're going to try and
00:57:31
enforce that agreement. And it'll be
00:57:34
really interesting to see what the
00:57:36
result of that suit ends up being.
00:57:39
That's the type of thing that could have
00:57:41
far-reaching ramifications in terms of
00:57:43
NIL and the transfer portal and just in
00:57:45
general, I would say player movement. If
00:57:47
in fact a court or whoever finds that
00:57:49
these contracts are enforcable and he
00:57:52
can't leave because they won't let him
00:57:53
and he signs something, then I I think
00:57:56
guys will be a little bit more
00:57:57
apprehensive about putting themselves in
00:57:59
a bad situation. Right now there is this
00:58:01
culture of well if I go somewhere and
00:58:03
sign an agreement I don't got to worry
00:58:04
about I don't got to worry about it I
00:58:06
can just go somewhere else next year.
00:58:08
But certainly when we're talking about
00:58:09
this higher price talent where we're
00:58:12
talking about multi-year agreements and
00:58:13
things of that nature, um I it's not
00:58:16
often that I'm rooting against the
00:58:18
players, I would say, in general, but I
00:58:20
think this is one area that they could
00:58:23
definitely have a positive impact uh if
00:58:26
Duke were to win this case and find that
00:58:29
these contracts are enforcable and guys
00:58:31
can't just pick up and leave
00:58:32
willy-nilly. So that that's a really
00:58:34
obvious one that I think we're going to
00:58:35
play out here in relatively short order.
00:58:38
The other thing that I would throw out,
00:58:39
Kade, is, you know, the college football
00:58:42
calendar is still kind of screwed up. Uh
00:58:44
it maybe was a little bit better this
00:58:45
year. They did away with two transfer
00:58:47
portal windows. Previously, there was
00:58:49
one in the winter, one in the spring.
00:58:50
Now they combined them both, but it
00:58:52
opened during the playoffs, which is
00:58:54
still weird, even though teams in the
00:58:56
playoffs got a little bit more of a
00:58:57
grace period. So, I I feel like that
00:59:01
puts college football in a really
00:59:02
uncomfortable bind sometimes depending
00:59:04
on where guys want to go and when they
00:59:07
want to do it. And so, I think some
00:59:09
combination of the lawsuits with maybe
00:59:11
trying to make the calendar a little bit
00:59:13
better if that's at all possible. That's
00:59:15
a start. But there the the whole money
00:59:17
side of this is like its own podcast
00:59:19
episode completely. That's that's going
00:59:21
to be a longer conversation.
00:59:22
>> Yeah, it's a podcast series probably
00:59:25
more than anything. Well, I like I I
00:59:26
like your answer a lot actually. It's
00:59:28
very practical. It says probably going
00:59:30
to be a contractual thing, probably
00:59:31
going to be court as opposed to the fans
00:59:34
who retired or the coaches who are
00:59:36
retired. That's a real issue for
00:59:38
long-term sustainability. But that's
00:59:40
that that could wither away for a long
00:59:42
time before it was enough of a crash for
00:59:45
them to do something about. But how
00:59:47
these contracts get enforced or don't
00:59:49
get enforced is a big one. And then, you
00:59:51
know, depending on how that goes, you
00:59:52
get schools learning that the portal
00:59:54
isn't the answer to every need. And so,
00:59:57
you end up in seasons without a
00:59:59
quarterback. You know, it's so funny,
01:00:01
Ty, though, like it's such a change.
01:00:02
When we were growing up, teams of course
01:00:05
went through cycles where you're
01:00:06
starting a sophomore, you're starting a
01:00:08
freshman or whatever. That's just what
01:00:09
happens. You're sometimes you don't have
01:00:10
a good middle linebacker, but now the
01:00:12
expectation is you have to fill every
01:00:15
hole on your roster in full and by God,
01:00:18
you can do it because there's a portal.
01:00:19
It still seems unrealistic.
01:00:22
>> It It is. And look, I mean, uh, not to
01:00:25
go too far down the path of of the money
01:00:28
conversation, but there there were
01:00:29
already talks um, just this week about
01:00:33
right now there's a cap on how much of
01:00:35
the revenue schools can share with their
01:00:38
athletes. There there's a talk about
01:00:40
wanting to get rid of that cap
01:00:41
altogether, wanting to give schools the
01:00:43
right to pay guys as much as they want.
01:00:45
So, you know, it college football has
01:00:48
always been
01:00:49
>> this battle of David versus Goliath.
01:00:51
It's part of what makes it such a charm
01:00:53
sport and what gets people fired up to
01:00:55
watch every Saturday is that constant
01:00:57
thrill of a potential upset. Um, we are
01:01:01
what's going on right now though it I
01:01:03
think has allowed a little bit more
01:01:05
parody at the power conference level and
01:01:07
has definitely spread talent out a
01:01:09
little bit more. We're seeing a lot of
01:01:12
this halves versus have nots thing on
01:01:14
the financial side. And so longer term,
01:01:18
this mindset of we have to fill every
01:01:20
hole in the roster with high price
01:01:21
talent with the best guys that are
01:01:23
available to us, the best guys money can
01:01:25
buy. Uh eventually eventually I think
01:01:28
that prices a lot of the smaller schools
01:01:31
out of the competitive market and that's
01:01:33
a problem. I I don't personally want to
01:01:35
see that even though, you know, we're
01:01:37
sort of used to the blueb bloodoods
01:01:39
driving the sport. Um I I would prefer a
01:01:41
sport that is not that lopsided in terms
01:01:43
of resources. So, we'll see. I you know,
01:01:46
we're we're still at the tip of the
01:01:47
iceberg with this whole thing.
01:01:49
>> Okay. Helpful helpful reports from uh
01:01:52
from your perspective, your your rich
01:01:54
perspective. Um, one one more report
01:01:56
from you, Ty, before we go and we just
01:01:58
we'll try to wrap up quick because we're
01:01:59
kept you overtime already. But, um, Penn
01:02:02
State has, you know, if not for all the
01:02:04
craziness of the intervening two months,
01:02:06
it's even been longer since they fired
01:02:08
their coach. Penn State was the story
01:02:11
early in the season. I mean, Penn State
01:02:12
and my team Texas, these were one and
01:02:14
two in the year coming in and both fell
01:02:16
pretty hard, but Franklin lost the job
01:02:18
as a process. Didn't sign anybody. Then
01:02:22
they [ __ ] around through most of the
01:02:24
coaching carousel before landing on what
01:02:26
at some years has been the hottest coach
01:02:29
available. But Matt Campbell, Iowa
01:02:31
State, he brings a lot of his players,
01:02:33
including his quarterback at, you know,
01:02:35
Penn State. It's like it's our that's
01:02:37
our state institution. It's the local
01:02:38
big college program.
01:02:41
You're you went there. What what's the
01:02:43
what's the sense right now now that
01:02:46
they've come through all that craziness?
01:02:47
Is there optimism? Is there hope? How do
01:02:49
you think they're going to do right off
01:02:50
the bat? like what what's your take?
01:02:52
>> I think there's a lot of optimism to be
01:02:54
honest with you and it it's kind of like
01:02:57
a natural segue to go from talking about
01:02:59
the transfer portal to talking about
01:03:01
Penn State
01:03:02
>> because
01:03:03
>> for as much of the conversation right
01:03:05
now is about who can we get to move from
01:03:07
program A to program B,
01:03:09
>> there is a much bigger conversation that
01:03:12
takes place when coaches move.
01:03:15
And addendum to those co coach
01:03:16
conversations is now how many of your
01:03:18
other guys can you bring with you? not
01:03:20
just your assistants, but how many of
01:03:21
your players can you bring with you? And
01:03:23
uh to the point, Matt Campbell has very
01:03:26
much been a name in demand. He's not
01:03:28
done a great job of advertising what
01:03:30
he's done at Iowa State, even though
01:03:31
he's done a remarkable job. And he has
01:03:34
been in the running for some really big
01:03:36
jobs, but he has waited. He has been
01:03:38
picky. Penn State totally botched the
01:03:41
process to try and hire a new coach. I
01:03:43
think that's been well documented at
01:03:44
this point. But the fact that Matt
01:03:46
Campbell fell off the back of a truck
01:03:48
and into their waiting arms with all of
01:03:51
these guys from an otherwise pretty good
01:03:53
Iowa State team, it doesn't need to be
01:03:56
pretty, it just needs to work. And in
01:03:58
that sense, I I think it worked. So much
01:04:01
of what he has done in the early going
01:04:03
in State College has, I think, been very
01:04:06
very exciting. He did bring a lot of
01:04:08
guys with him from Iowa State, including
01:04:11
his quarterback, Rock Obeck, who will
01:04:13
probably already be the best quarterback
01:04:15
Penn State's had in the last 10 years.
01:04:17
Um I I think he has done a really good
01:04:19
job piecing this thing together kind of
01:04:22
on the fly and very very quickly, not
01:04:24
just with his own guys, but uh we're
01:04:27
also now seeing like some guys who were
01:04:29
interested in Penn State previously in
01:04:31
the high school recruiting game throw
01:04:33
their name back in the in the ring,
01:04:36
maybe be interested in Penn State again.
01:04:37
It seems like they're able to ratchet
01:04:39
that up a little bit more. So, I think
01:04:42
the combination of the talent that he's
01:04:43
going to have on hand, which for all
01:04:45
intents and purposes is a hybrid of the
01:04:48
best of Penn State and the best of Iowa
01:04:50
State, combined with what their schedule
01:04:52
looks like next year, which to my eye
01:04:55
looks very advantageous. I'm not saying
01:04:57
they're making the playoff, I don't want
01:04:59
to go that far, but I think this is a
01:05:02
team that's going to be competitive
01:05:03
right away. And given the way this all
01:05:05
went down after those losses this
01:05:08
season, if you're a Penn Stater, you got
01:05:10
to take that and and be pretty damn
01:05:12
happy with it, right? You you will take
01:05:13
that a million times over. It's a
01:05:16
different mentality. It's a different
01:05:17
philosophy. It's obviously a different
01:05:19
coach altogether. Um, but the thing with
01:05:22
James Franklin had definitely run its
01:05:24
course.
01:05:25
Not crazy about the way he was fired,
01:05:27
but I think it was time to move on and
01:05:29
and kind of change the landscape a
01:05:30
little bit. And uh I'm excited to see
01:05:32
what Matt Campbell can do.
01:05:34
>> To an outsider, it feels like it must
01:05:36
feel very different to think about
01:05:38
football under somebody other than
01:05:40
Franklin, other than James Franklin. It
01:05:41
felt like over the years couldn't get
01:05:43
over the hump. Lots of It's like almost
01:05:44
RC Slokum from a previous era with the
01:05:46
Ais 10 and two, 10 and 10 and two. It's
01:05:48
like they can't beat the the two teams
01:05:50
they need to beat. And it just got a
01:05:51
heavier heavier heavier cloud. And it
01:05:53
sounds like even inside the program, it
01:05:55
just got so weighty. Y'all must feel
01:05:57
like a whole new day. like Meadows and
01:05:59
Flowers and here's Matt Campbell and a
01:06:01
new coach and it just it h I'm just
01:06:03
guessing it feels very different.
01:06:05
>> It well it it does and I mean we're
01:06:07
talking about two guys that have been
01:06:09
successful in their own right with very
01:06:10
different philosophies and you know even
01:06:12
if we want to bring it back to the
01:06:14
transfer portal and bring it back to
01:06:15
compensation and things of that nature.
01:06:18
very different philosophies between
01:06:19
James Franklin who basically paid
01:06:21
everybody the same amount and how most
01:06:24
other places are doing it where you're
01:06:26
paid a little bit more based on your
01:06:28
production and that I think was a
01:06:30
sticking point in some of the leaked
01:06:32
audio that came out from Pat Craft. It
01:06:33
appears as if that very much was an
01:06:36
issue that he had with the way that
01:06:38
Franklin ran things. I think that's
01:06:40
going to change now. I I think Matt
01:06:41
Campbell just has a fundamentally
01:06:43
different philosophy. He's never been in
01:06:45
a place like this that has these kinds
01:06:47
of resources to throw at football,
01:06:49
right?
01:06:49
>> And so that in and of itself, I think,
01:06:51
makes this a really exciting
01:06:52
opportunity. Taking a guy like that who
01:06:55
was he built his career on making more
01:06:58
out of less to now give a guy like that
01:07:00
more doesn't mean he's going to make the
01:07:02
playoff, win a conference championship,
01:07:04
even win a playoff game. But I I like
01:07:07
your chances of putting a guy like that
01:07:08
in a situation like this.
01:07:10
>> It's fun for college football, I think.
01:07:11
I mean, you're right. It's no guarantee,
01:07:13
but it's a good experiment to run. Let's
01:07:14
see this guy who's been the darling of
01:07:16
kind of the underresourced program tier
01:07:18
and see how he does with Let's play that
01:07:20
game like a It's like a It's like a
01:07:22
freaking uh
01:07:24
TV show that making like let's put the
01:07:26
small town guy in the big on the big
01:07:28
city. Um, okay. Last question that it
01:07:31
seems relevant to me. Can is do we feel
01:07:33
bad? Should we feel hypocritical about
01:07:36
kind of implicitly praising Campbell for
01:07:39
bringing all his players with him while
01:07:41
having probably just railed on Lane
01:07:43
Keifin for trying to get his guys to
01:07:46
come from Miss to LSU?
01:07:49
Kein created a dog and pony show though,
01:07:52
you know, and that's that's been the rub
01:07:54
on Kein. He's a good coach. He's
01:07:57
obviously been very successful. He knows
01:07:59
how to work the transfer portal. We're
01:08:00
already seeing that they've got the top
01:08:02
portal class given this most recent
01:08:04
cycle. But um you know this constant
01:08:09
will he won't he leave some of what I
01:08:12
think we heard about them sort of either
01:08:16
overtly or under the radar recruiting
01:08:21
Old Miss players to kind of jump in the
01:08:23
portal as Old Miss was getting set to
01:08:25
play in its playoff game. Um the college
01:08:28
football is a shady business. There's no
01:08:30
denying that across the board. But Lane
01:08:33
Keifin definitely
01:08:35
engaged in his fair share of shadiness
01:08:38
with the way things went down at Old
01:08:39
Miss, both with leaving with his
01:08:41
coaching staff and uh with the players
01:08:44
that he may have wanted to come with
01:08:45
him. We didn't really see that from
01:08:47
Campbell. I mean, first and foremost,
01:08:49
it's not like Iowa State was in the
01:08:51
playoff. Iowa State,
01:08:52
>> that's a big difference.
01:08:53
>> Was not in the playoff. It was it was a
01:08:55
much cleaner break. He also wasn't out
01:08:58
there in the media tweeting about it and
01:09:00
making a big deal about it. I mean, uh,
01:09:03
we didn't find out until very late in
01:09:05
the game that Campbell was even a
01:09:06
possibility. He never spoke about it
01:09:08
until the ink had dried. So, it I I
01:09:11
think ultimately we're talking about two
01:09:13
guys with very very different
01:09:14
personalities, which is is the biggest
01:09:17
difference. But, um, you know, I to me
01:09:21
it doesn't feel quite as underhanded
01:09:23
given the timing of when Campbell left
01:09:25
to go to Penn State and certainly the
01:09:28
situation that Iowa State was in, uh,
01:09:31
the one that he left behind in Ames.
01:09:33
>> Okay. All right. Well, listen, uh, thank
01:09:35
you for the time, Ty. This is our last
01:09:38
official college football podcast of the
01:09:40
season. You were a perfect person to
01:09:42
wrap it up with. Wish you the best with
01:09:44
all you have going on over at the Solid
01:09:46
Verbal. encourage our listeners to pick
01:09:48
up Tai and Dan wherever you can. Solid
01:09:50
verbal really the college football OG of
01:09:53
podcast for sure been around since ' 08
01:09:56
and we're delighted to have Ty with us
01:09:58
periodically. Ty H and Brett,
01:10:00
>> thank you.
01:10:01
>> Many thanks to um Eric Bradlo and Audi
01:10:04
Winer who were here for most of the show
01:10:07
before having to roll off to other
01:10:08
responsibilities here this afternoon.
01:10:10
for Shane Jensen in Absentia in the
01:10:12
classroom as well. For Dion Simpkins,
01:10:15
always here doing the real work for the
01:10:17
whole team. Thank you, Dion. Marissa
01:10:18
Raina, our producer, D Patel, the boss
01:10:20
lady. Many thanks to the whole crew and
01:10:22
thanks to you guys for listening. Come
01:10:24
back and join us next time. Between now
01:10:25
and then, enjoy your sports.
