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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting this week with my two two of my three co-host, Audi Winer and Eric Bradlo.
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Shane Jensen is in the classroom. I believe we're going to be juggling recording between Audi and Shane classes
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for the next few weeks. Eric on his off days from recording with us is doing like 14 sections of NBAs as he always
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does this >> all mornings. But I 8:30 to noon, >> but he bills around the show. That's
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real commitment right there, Eric Bradlo. Um, so I'm the only schmuck here not teaching. I'm I'm reing in that
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right now. This is a month without teaching. Good for I don't know, watching football and thinking about
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sports analytics. Let's do some of that. We're at the very end of the football
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season. We're going to we're recording on Tuesday afternoon as we usually do.
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The show will go up on Wednesday. Last night was the national championship game for the end of the college football
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season. And we're going to have a friend of the show, an an oldtime guest, an
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in-person guest, one of the few repeat in-person guests we had back in the day. Ty Hildenbrandt, co-host of the Solid
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Verbal, wildly popular College Football podcast, Solid Verbal. Ty is joining us at the top of the hour, which is about a
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half an hour from now. We're going to talk college football then, so we'll
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hold off a little bit, though. I am curious whether my guys here watched any of the game. Hey you baseball people,
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you watched any college football last night? >> I did. >> Both of them saying
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>> shockingly that I did by the way cuz I'm not a you know you know I'm not a
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college football but I watched the championship. >> Well, we're bringing you around when we
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first started doing the show 14 years ago. You weren't that much of a pro football guy and we brought you deep
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into that and so college is just around the corner from that. >> You know fun game.
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>> It's uh there's a lot of great research questions in football. Yes. Right.
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>> It really does cross over what I consider like the big four pillars of of
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analytics and football really can tackle all of them. >> Give us the four pillars of analytics.
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>> Well, um the four I call the four pillars. So historical evaluation. So
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why people won and who, what, where, why, and what's happened in the past. Um
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and then future evaluation. So who will win and and what drives what predicts future winning. That's kind of the big
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innovation of analytics is to get away from the history and move to prediction. But I do think they've overstepped.
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They've gone too far away to forecasting and not enough kind of contemplation of
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the past. I think that's just as equally interesting. >> That that fits your baseball
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conservatism. That fits you very well. Contemplate the past. Contemplate the past, people.
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>> Indeed. And and then of course um uh decision game analytics and football is
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just abundant in that just why the why you make the decisions you make and which are the right ones. Um and there's
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more analytics. It's hard. What's the last one? Uh the last one is training
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analytics. How do you get players to become better? >> I was going to say it's hard to do three
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or four without two. >> Uh yeah. Well, you know, true. True is sort two is sort of the big one, right?
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The future, but is the predictive two is the predictive predictive. But decision
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analytics are fascinating. And I think spaceball is is is much more meager on that score. um in terms of like in-game
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decision- making. Not not that there's nothing. There's plenty of like stolen
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bases and um sort of strategic things in key situations, but football's got that
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in spades over really any other. >> Can you say more about that because I I'm I honestly get a little tired of
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fourth down and two-point discussions because that that's what people obsess
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about. >> Sure. Because that that I think there's been a huge huge uh improvement and and
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noticeable on the field. In fact, yesterday's final game was essentially decided by a
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>> Oh, Aie, you blanked out there for a second. It was decided by the what?
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>> The game yesterday, wasn't it decided on a fourth and five conversion?
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>> I mean, that was one of the crucial plays in the game. You could argue Parson Beck's
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>> interception was decided >> by wide open if he throws it seven yards
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farther could have also decided the game. But do you think for a moment if it hadn't been for analytics they would
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have ever have contemplated a fourth and five conversion? >> That's an interesting question. I mean
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it's not like signetti is this major analytics guy but it may maybe that whole discussion has just has has
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lowered the threshold for going for it on fourth down and he clearly debated it. He was he had the field goal team on
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there for a moment. >> Um phenomenal phenomenal. You know, there was this there is this an aspect
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of that decision that that wasn't talked about on the broadcast I was watching
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anyway, but is we've talked about it a few years ago. People raised this. If he
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had kicked a field goal, they've been up six and so they a touchdown would have
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lost. If if they didn't get it and they were just three, the other team might
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have settled for a field goal. There's this idea that when a team's down by
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more than three, they play more aggressively and it actually can hurt the team that's leading because the
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aggressive play leads them to score more and six is kind of a precarious position
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to sit in if that's true. >> Well, that's strategic right there. And
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you were talking about other ones. There's of course there's two-point conversions. It's not fourth down
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conversion. That's also a big one. But the mixture of play calling, I mean, isn't that the most important and most
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fascinating? >> I I was hoping you were going to go there because I don't think there's been
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enough on that. And um it's but it's really really hard and you know fans are
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basically just fans want them to call the touchdown play. And so if it only goes for one yard they didn't call the
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touchdown play. They did the wrong thing. Fans don't reason about this in a very sophisticated way and it's hard to
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reason about it in a sophisticated way because it's super game game theoretic.
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Right. >> Right. And even so I'll mention some uh um a paper written by our our our
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friends and colleagues out in CMU. They they analyze using big datable the entropy of the count to of the
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quarterback, right? So they count in until they decide to to to snap the ball. And they had that data and they
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they argued, I think, fairly persuasively that the more entropy, meaning the more unpredictable your your
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snap, the much more >> the cadence, you're talking about the quarterback's cadence, as he calls the
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snap. Right. Right. This was this year's research. >> What was the outcome of that? It leads
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to more what? I assume better outcomes. better outcomes, more unpredictable play
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calling and and um there's just a fundamental game theory of it is um in football is so rich and I think probably
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thing that that's an obstacle is that we don't really have the the data per
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perhaps and um and and no one really runs experiments. Experiments would would help us really start to solve some
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of these questions, but it's impossible to get >> Well, it's a little bit like Audi or are
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there is there anybody I think would you would you agree that in baseball is this
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true? Is this true in baseball that the pitcher couldn't could probably not do
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better? Could they do better than just truly randomizing their pitch selection? >> They probably do randomizing. I mean,
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you have to be careful with that because certain combinations are really really overwhelming in one direction, right?
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So, you can't just so conditional on a >> okay on a distribution like you this
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this hitter needs to see the slider because he's really weak against the slider and hits fast balls more. But
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given that absolute randomization, full randomization is is is much better than anything.
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>> And and with tennis, same thing like on down the down the middle line versus the
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outside, whatever the right terminology for those things is. Aren't they haven't
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studies been done that showed that high-end tennis players more or less do randomize that? I mean, they're really
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good at that, right? >> Actually was reading an article on this very recently. I don't know how it came
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across my desk that that showed that the top players are excellent at this and the best college players are also good
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at they're just as good. >> Well, Audi, what they're it's not just
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randomization. The hardest shot to hit in tennis is what's called the redirect.
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So, for example, Cade hits his we're both right-handed. Kades hits his forehand crosscourt to my forehand. And
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then for me to redirect that ball straight down the line, whether it's on the forehand or backhand side, that's
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always been the winning shot in tennis. And whoever can redirect the ball down the line first, that's the winning shot
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in tennis. And that's what you need to do. But unfortunately, it's really hard
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to do. And also, this the the sides of the net are higher than the B than the center of the net. The net goes like
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this. And so it's also harder to hit the ball over the sides of the net. >> Okay. So hold on. So you're saying now
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forget but forget about the serve. When you're playing baseline just returning
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shots with the other side, you have to decide whether to stay across court or take it down the line. And that that is
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a randomization choice as well. Interesting. Super. Okay. So this was a bit of a digression, but let's let's
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stop it there. This AI gave us Audi's four pillars of sports analytics. If you
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missed it, it was descriptive, predictive, in-game decision-making, and training. So, we often talk about the
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first two in one bin, and they're kind of being we often talk about there being
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three. Audi has parsed that first one because descriptive merits its own land. Audi thinks we should contemplate the
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past more. We'll leave it there for now. Odd. Um, okay. Let's talk about NFL. So,
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the the divisional round was this weekend. We had some a couple of phenomenal games and a couple of less
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phenomenal games. Any responses? We got the championship lineup here. The Pats made it through against the Broncos who
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were quarterbackless or not completely quarterbackless, but practically. And the Rams made it through against
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Seattle. I've seen Well, before we talk about those games, anything from the
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weekend, what stood out to you from the weekend other than Caleb Friaking Williams at the end of regulation, which
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is one of the most dramatic moments I can remember in football? >> Well, just a couple quick things on
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that. So, first, um, at least according to, uh, you know, I I don't know if I'm
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going to make this a segment for me, but what the heck, um, I'm going to ask Chat
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GPT every week to give me the top five most improbable things that happened in sports this week. I'm going to ask it
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for that. What the hell? Maybe it's interesting, maybe it's not interesting.
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>> You think it's going to be good at finding those? >> No, not that great. Um, but it did, but
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the third one it did list was the they called it the past of the century. Someone must have called it that. And
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that was the Caleb Williams uh 51 yard completion, running backwards, all kinds of things. Yeah, that was just an
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incredible. >> So, just let's note hilariously, as the commenter said on at real time, it went
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down as a 14 yard completion even though it traveled 50 yards in the air. >> Yeah. Just just so everyone knows, I
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mean, I I was talking about it with a bunch of people afterwards. I think there's probably only three
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quarterbacks, maybe four in the NFL that could have even made that play. Forget whether, you know, I think Josh Allen
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could make that play, could like run around enough and then throw it. I think >> you're saying that the two qualities are
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he has to have some escapability and a huge arm. >> Correct. I think Josh Allen could make
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that play. I think Lamar Jackson could make that play. Um I'm not convinced of
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anybody else in the NFL. Rogers has the arm and earlier in his career >> earlier in his career I would have and
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matter of fact he made plays similar to that I would have put him in that bin but that's a that's about it but the
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thing you know a couple things one is um did they consider going for two cuz remember they scored that touchdown
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with 18 seconds left that put them down one they kicked the extra point to go into overtime and I actually liked um
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Ben Johnson, the Bears coach answer, and I agreed with him in this case. So, you'll find I think you'll like his
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answer, too. I don't know if you know, but they were horrific on fourth down in
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that game. Like, I'm pretty sure they were stopped every single time. Maybe they made it once, maybe. And his
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comment was, "We weren't doing that well on short yardage plays. What makes me
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think that all of a sudden with the game on the line, we're going to be able to
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get two yards when we've tried it a bunch of times in this game and didn't
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get it? >> I mean, >> what what's the motivation in general? Because in you like that you like that
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decision if your team is disadvantaged in some way, like marketkedly disadvantaged, I guess, is when you
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would plan to do that. But Chicago one, they're the home team. Yes, they were
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the underdog, but they're the home team. And they'd played LA relatively
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comparably to that point, have they not? It wasn't obvious to me that they needed
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to, you know, strike when they had the opportunity or or go out swing it. That just the the the commenter suggested it
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on the show and I was I was surprised by it. So, give me your thinking. >> Aren't the baseline probabilities
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roughly a wash? >> The conversion probability is roughly 50%. >> And then the overtime probability is
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roughly 50%, and the the three the obviously the conver the one the extra point is nearly it's 97%.
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>> It's close. this close to work. >> So, so I in situations like this when
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you're on the edge of a of a knife, this is when you're supposed to say we
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haven't been doing it at fourth down that matters. >> So, this but so Audi but Audi's
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importing Brill Winer wisdom here that says >> when I was listening to him I was
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thinking Audi would agree with that. Audi would agree with this kind of I'll
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call it localized information. Maybe localized and current information. >> Okay. I want I want to say this is a I
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mean this is what I loved about that paper is that this is basically humility for modelers. It's like recognize that
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so it's easy for us to say oh here comes the coach talking about the wind you
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know it's like overriding the model because of the wind or whatever but that's not what's going on here. The
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model is so knife edge as odd says that you have to consider contextual stuff. So sometimes that all that context which
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some people get buried in to get kind of swamped by isn't appropriate and sometimes it is and it depends on how
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definitive the model is. That's really >> by design it also makes it to go for the
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extra point. Let me say why. It used to be as you guys remember it used to be in
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pro football that in overtime if you got the ball first and scored a touchdown the game was over. But that's no longer
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true. you score a touchdown and the other team still gets the ball. As a matter of fact, you should always defer
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because always because now you know what you need to do. Matter of fact, if they
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get six and one, you could decide to go for six and two. If they get three, you know, you need at least three. So the
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the overtime rules have changed to make it even more favorable to even if you're
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the unlucky coin toss loser. Like they've made it so that there's it's
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more equitable in overtime is all I'm saying. Cuz otherwise if you didn't get
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the coin toss, you might as well forget about overtime. You typically lost game.
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>> Well, in seasons of in Bills just got knocked out for the sixth year in a row
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and one of their being knocked out was because of those early. In fact, the reason they changed the rules is because
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they were knocked out without having a chance to even touch the ball in overtime. Let's talk about the Bills.
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They lost again and again in heartbreaking fashion, controversial fashion in overtime with a a hard to
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fathom interception decision and then probably equally hard to fathom pass interference call. Um they go down uh
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the Broncos in the process lose their quarterback Boon next in the next last play which is unbelievable and then the
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Bills fired their coach and this was a coach there's some stats that came up in
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the in the days after this game even before they fired the coach. The Bills have the most points scored in the NFL
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over the last six years and the least points allowed in the NFL over the last six years. They have by far the greatest
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point differential in the NFL. They've been to >> playoff wins maybe >> most playoff wins surely. They've been
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to the divisional round every year, the championship round a couple of years in that run and they fired their coach. Um,
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so that's the main thing that I'm stuck with coming out of this other than just
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the heartbreak. I should read out one of the texts on from one of these Buffalo text threads. I I I'll I'll dig this up,
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but the pain and anguish is just so so bad. Eric, what were your thoughts on the Bills? Well,
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I hate to say it because I love him as a player. Josh Allen cost them that game.
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>> He did. Well, he might have. I mean, who knows what they would have done without
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him, but no, his his mistakes. I mean, that >> his mistakes his his fumble at the end
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of the first half, giving up three points is inexcusable. Um, >> did Eric, did anybody talk to him about
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why he was running the ball? Any He can't run in that situation. They didn't
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have timeouts. They didn't have you can't break the line of scrimmage. So,
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what the heck was he doing? Right. And forget the fact they tried to l it or whatever he did there. Just what is he
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doing? And that three points made a huge difference in the game. The other thing
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was that I know you saw this Cade. I don't I don't I don't want to put up I'd
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have to watch it again cuz I've only seen it like twice or three times, but he missed a wideopen receiver for a
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touchdown with 15 seconds left in the game. That ends the game. I mean, the game's over and the guy it it has to be.
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I don't say it has to be, but it sort of if you're Josh Allen and you're
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supposedly the MVP and the best quarterback in the NFL, you must make that throw.
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>> And he missed him. Look, it reminded me of Baker Mayfield the entire season.
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That throw was Baker Mayfield cuz I watched every Bucks game the entire season. Guys are open deep and he's
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overthrowing them. >> Okay, but there's a I there there's a difference here and this is something
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Brian Burke worked on when motion trucking first came out. Brian worked on this. I don't know what's come of it,
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but I'm sure some cool stuff has come of it where you can begin to evaluate did
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the quarterback go to the highest value added place. And that's going to be some
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combination of the probability of completing the pass and then the value of the play if you do complete the pass.
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And so for the first time, we're beginning to be, you know, kind of backseat drivers on did the quarterback
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go in the right place. I don't know what the baseline base rate for that is,
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Eric. I the base rate is not 100%. the best quarterbacks in the history of the game.
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>> I didn't say I I know, but this is what my reservation about that critique is.
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It's inevitable that sometimes the QB is going to miss the obvious guy and and if
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it happens in a >> key moment. Well, you know, who's to know why that happened? It could the guy
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can't see everything on the field, but I'm curious. I don't know the answer. It
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seems to me that the base rate, I don't know, among the very top quarterbacks is
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probably quite high, but substantially short of one. Like I would guess threequarters of the time.
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>> Yeah. >> Or the very best quarterbacks. >> Okay. But here's the question. I mean
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here and this is this is a when I'm teaching this is one of my favorite examples. It's what I call the
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uncontrolled comparison. >> In other words, you make a statement that sounds very plausible. He should
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have missed. He's a great quarterback. He should not miss an open receiver. The
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implication is we know that the the that this is usually done three quarters, but
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I'm not sure we do. And I think it would be quite surprising to me if it's that
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high. uh being a quarterback is and what I'm really actually intrigued >> I said I said among the very best
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>> yes and what I'd be curious to know is how compact it is from you know the 90th
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percentile to the 10th percentile what's the difference in and I'm curious and
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this is I guess what Brian's metric might help us figure out and that would be great how often
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>> this was I he presented this at a preMIT conference when Google used to host that
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preMIT conference for for a few years my memory is a Brian that's probably been
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five six years now but somebody's got the answer to this someone has those models someone has some sense of the
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base rate and the compactness of that. >> Yeah. >> Um it's a terrific question.
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>> Let me just say why also I I I I sort of support firing McDermott, but for a it's
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just I guess you could call it a strategy type reason, which is given the talent of Josh Allen, maybe
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the strategy of the team to put so much on him to give him as much flexibility as you've given him is not a winning
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strategy. Like for example, you know, uh he turned the ball over four times in the game. Now, that's not exactly the
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coach's fault, but maybe the structure to have Josh Allen more freewheeling,
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maybe to allow him more chances to throw the ball down the field, maybe running the ball less. I mean, I'm saying by
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construction, he may have the thought of we're going to get great Josh Allen and
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we're going to get sometimes not as great Josh Allen, but that tradeoff is worth it. And maybe that structure is
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just wrong in the NFL. Maybe empirically, you know, can't win playoff games. I have I'll say it the following
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way. Let's say you have to win four playoff games to win the Super Bowl. Generally, it's four, three or four.
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Eventually, Josh Allen's going to have a Josh Allen game under the Shawn McDermott structure. And therefore,
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that's why >> hypothesis question. That's all it is. It's a hypothesis.
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>> That's it's interesting. Um, we're we're gonna roll off of this in
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just a few minutes. So, what else on the NFL? What's prominent to you guys on the
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NFL right now? Either from the divisional round or the upcoming conference championship round. I'll give
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you one thing. I believe this is I think this is an Aaron Shots number. He looked
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at DVOA of the conference finalists and this year's matchup in the NFC between the Rams and the Seahawks is not
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only the highest in the history of the DVOA, but like by a long shot the highest. So the
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>> these these two teams are at the top of most people's power rankings and not by
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a little bit and they happen to be playing in the in the NFC champ. I had Aaron on, as you guys remember, a couple
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weeks ago and he was mentioning that in the last like 10 years based on DVOA, uh
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Seattle and the Rams were the two best teams like in the last 10 years or in the top five of the last 10 years.
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>> Remind me guys, what's the D stand for? It's value of of average. Is it? What's
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the D? >> That's a good question that I don't know the answer to right off the end.
00:21:52
Let's keep going though, Eric. So on the other side though, you've got New
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England against a completely hamstrung Denver Broncos. And so it's it's really
00:22:03
unfortunate that we don't get to see the Bon Knicks version of the Broncos make
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this kind of four strong teams. Drake May and the and the Pats continue to kind of surprise I suppose. Um and it
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looks like in all odds unless STDM can do something that Nick Fos has done before. So you've evaluated this I know
00:22:23
in Massie Peab buddy. Is it surprising to you that the quarterback is worth seven points?
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>> Top quarterbacks I believe we've kind of you know back back of the envelope
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estimated around their top. >> That is right. Okay. So that doesn't surprise you then because I
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>> Is Boone a top quarterback? I don't I don't know. I mean that's a lot of
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value. Seven points is 20. >> It's a lot of it's a lot of value%. >> I would not have thought Bon Knicks was
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worth seven >> but >> that's what it is. I mean, that's what
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the betting lines are saying because I think Denver would have been favored by one and a half and now they're underdog
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by five and a half. >> It's a big move. It's a big move. It depends on the It
00:23:01
depends on the backup quarterback, of course. I mean, STDM has like three starts in his life, three professional
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starts. So, super disappointing on that front. We are going to shift gears now because
00:23:17
we've got our guest for the second half of the show rolling in. We're talking
00:23:21
football, but we've been talking pro football. We want to shift gears and talk a little bit of college football
00:23:25
here in the second half of the show. Guest this half and it's been a while since we've seen Ty, but Ty Hildenbrand
00:23:32
is joining us. Ty is the co-host of Solid Verbal. We think we've been around
00:23:36
a while. We're hitting our 12th anniversary this year. hitting their, you know, 18th sometime this year.
00:23:44
They've been around since ' 08. He and Dan Rubenstein do a terrific show on
00:23:48
college football. Independent. They're independent of everybody else and they
00:23:51
probably got the largest audience out there. Ty is from around the corner here in Pennsylvania. I say here even though
00:23:58
I'm not in the moment, Pennsylvania around the corner from Penn. He's up in
00:24:01
Allentown. Ty has been with us in studio multiple times. It's a pleasure always
00:24:07
to get time with you, Ty. Welcome to the show. Okay, gentlemen, it is a pleasure as
00:24:12
always. Thank you for the invite. >> Yes, glad to have you. We've missed your
00:24:16
your dulit tones, your this gorgeous radio voice that Ty Hillbrandt brings. We we should have him on every quarter
00:24:22
or so just to like improve the sound quality of our show. Give us some more, Ty. What are you doing this morning? How
00:24:28
you feeling after last night? >> I will take that as a compliment. Thank you.
00:24:32
>> How tell us what's on your mind. You you you had a big the you know, your season
00:24:36
culminated last night. Um, y'all did a a a a real time show and then you did your
00:24:42
usual recap afterwards. So, I know you did a lot of talking. I'm curious as you
00:24:45
woke up this morning and thought about that game, what what aspects of the game stood out to you? Like, what's on your
00:24:51
mind about that game? Was >> Well, I mean, I think a couple things. I mean, first off, as you know, I'm sure
00:25:02
Indiana came in uh a touchdown touchdown and a half, eight, eight and a half point favorite, depending on where you
00:25:07
looked. And so, there was an expectation that they were going to win the game. I
00:25:13
think what stood out to me just sort of in the flow of things is even though there were plenty of instances
00:25:20
throughout the course of that one where Miami could have wilted and maybe could have gone the way of say Oregon or
00:25:28
Alabama as we saw earlier in the playoff. Miami adjusted and that's not something that they get a lot of credit
00:25:33
for. Often we're making jokes about Crystal Ball and how he goes into a shell and plays very conservatively but
00:25:39
we didn't really see that in the second half. We saw Miami answer in a really
00:25:42
meaningful way. They damn nearly won the game. So I think to their credit, they acquitted themselves really, really
00:25:48
well. And on the Indiana side of things, I mean, it really was just moments. I saw our friend Bill Connelly from
00:25:55
ESPN.com posted his postgame win expectancy was at 14.1% in favor of Miami. Like overwhelmingly
00:26:04
in favor of Miami given the way that the game and the stats all shaked out. But the fact that Indiana will still able to
00:26:10
win that game is I think a testament to the process that Curt Signetti has in place and really just this mindset of
00:26:17
winning moments. You don't have to be perfect, but just winning on the margins
00:26:21
largely is what we saw them do on Monday night. And uh as such, they get their first national championship and the
00:26:27
sport's first ever 16-0 uh record. So congratulations to the Hooers. >> No doubt.
00:26:33
>> Yale in 1894 went 16 and0. Are you selling us short here? Yeah. Come on, Ty. Let's say modern era.
00:26:42
Okay. Modern era. >> Audi, leave it to Audi. We were just talking about where, you know, focus
00:26:47
focus on the past. Dwell focus. >> Ty, just to name some of the moments, I
00:26:52
I the block punt kind of doesn't count. Block punt is a separate thing, but like
00:26:55
those two fourth down conversions on the touchdown that there wasn't quite there.
00:27:00
Was it? Yeah, it was their last. It was their last touchdown. And then later when they're trying to burn clock that
00:27:05
third down conversion, this vital third down conversion like another another back shoulder fade. Um those are the
00:27:11
moments that I think of. Is that what you're thinking about when you say the
00:27:13
key moments those offensive conversions? >> Yeah. Offensive conversions. I mean even
00:27:20
if you want to boil it down to the more fundamental stuff like for the most part
00:27:25
tackling Malachi Tony when they try to get him in space on a quick throw or something of that nature. I mean that
00:27:31
that was very much how Miami made hay this year. Wasn't the most explosive team in college football, but they had a
00:27:38
bunch of guys who were just really good in space and they were ultimately pretty
00:27:41
good at finding ways to get them the ball and let them do what they do. We have seen that work to some effect here
00:27:46
throughout the course of the playoffs. Even though Miami has tended to play a little bit more of a slugfest variety of
00:27:51
football, but clearly the game against Old Miss went a little bit of a different direction. Nonetheless, we
00:27:57
they've done that a lot this year. And so for me coming into this one it was at
00:28:01
can Indiana tackle can Indiana tackle these guys who are just raw athletes in space and uh they did a pretty good job
00:28:07
of it. They weren't perfect again but um just moments like that finding a way to
00:28:13
get a guy on the ground being very disciplined. The zone coverage scheme that they play is one that requires a
00:28:19
lot of discipline and really good communication. So, it's not necessarily a team comprised of first round talent,
00:28:25
though there will be some first round players on that roster, but probably not to the same extent as Miami. They're
00:28:31
just really good as a team together. And so, when you've got that type of synergy, when you've got that culture,
00:28:37
that shared sort of philosophy for how to play defensive football and offensive football to an extent, um you you tend
00:28:44
to see your team excel in some of those margin moments. and uh we saw it on display last night.
00:28:50
>> Eric, >> yeah, I was just wondering, it's really a two-part question, but it's the same
00:28:54
question. If if yesterday's game were the only game you saw are Fernando Mendoza,
00:29:02
would you say he's the number one pick in the draft? And number two, is it obvious to you if we project out three
00:29:09
or four years who's going to be the better pro quarterback, Carson Beck or Mendoza?
00:29:16
It's so I have some thoughts, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on that.
00:29:21
>> All right, part one. The answer is no. Based on what we saw from Mendoza last
00:29:26
night, I I would not be inclined to say he looks like he is going to be a slam dunk in the NFL. Now, if that again to
00:29:32
your point, if that's only the only game I saw, I I'm not going to go on a limb
00:29:36
and say that uh he projects as the surefire number one overall pick given the course of the season and what we saw
00:29:44
from him over the course of the year and what I think we know about him as both a
00:29:48
student of the game, as somebody who studies this stuff and has an innate working knowledge of pre-nap, postnap
00:29:54
processing, that type of thing. I I think all of that is far and away very appealing to somebody that you're
00:30:00
thinking about picking at the next level in the NFL. So, I I think he'll be fine
00:30:04
at the next level, but that was not the best game of his that we saw last night.
00:30:07
He had moments again, but certainly not the best version of Fernando Mendoza that we saw. And it's no coincidence
00:30:13
that it probably was against one of the best, if not the best defensive lines that he saw here.
00:30:17
>> That was my point. and that you may see a lot more of that in the NFL and
00:30:21
therefore >> but also he'll have a better offensive line in the NFL too.
00:30:26
>> That's right. That's right. >> What about him versus Carson Beck only
00:30:29
in the sense of if you look Well, I I think I I haven't seen any stats on it.
00:30:34
Maybe you have. I think we could argue Carson Beck just who's got the stronger
00:30:37
arm. Beck probably has the stronger arm. That doesn't mean he's going to be a
00:30:42
better NFL quarterback at all. I'm just asking you, you know, how much uncertain, put a I
00:30:49
don't want to say this. Why not? We're a stats show. If you had to put a
00:30:52
probability that Mendoza is going to be a better NFL quarterback than Beck, what probability
00:30:59
would you give on that? >> That's good, good question, Audi, we want your answer as well.
00:31:03
>> I'd say I' I'd say about 70%. Um, and you know, one of one of the biggest
00:31:13
issues I think you see in guys going from college to pro ball and uh, you know, I know you guys again care a lot
00:31:20
about the stats, how these things change over time. I know it's something that
00:31:24
you all study probably a lot closer than I do, but you know, the game has changed
00:31:28
and that processing step going from college to pro. It's like a completely different stratosphere with the types of
00:31:36
things that they're doing at the pro game. And even though we didn't see it
00:31:40
so much last night from Carson Beck, I think his most recent track record, let's just say over the last two seasons
00:31:46
of college football, when they had to lean on him a little bit more at Georgia, when they didn't have the ground game
00:31:54
that we're accustomed to seeing in Athens from Kirby Smart. >> Yeah. >> Carson Beck wasn't as good.
00:31:59
>> Yep. >> And I think we saw it again at moments this year. He had a pretty good cast
00:32:03
around him. He did have a running game. They weren't asking him to go out there
00:32:06
and throw for 350 yards per game. But again, we saw it moments this season, notably in that Louisville game earlier
00:32:13
in the year where you can confuse them. He threw four interceptions. It could have been more in that game. So, I just
00:32:18
think the ability to confuse Beck is is a very real thing that needs to be taken
00:32:25
into account when we have this conversation. And not to say he can't confuse any quarterback, but I just
00:32:29
think Mendoza is a little bit quicker when it comes to processing post snaps. So, I'm I tend to come down on the
00:32:34
Mendoza side of this one a lot more definitively. >> The 70 is a strong number. And I love
00:32:40
what he did there, Eric. He said, "I see your stronger arm." Like, we can argue
00:32:43
it, but let's just grant back the stronger arm, and I'm going to give you
00:32:46
better processing speed. And this is something I think the NFL has learned. They have a hard time with it every time
00:32:50
because every year because you fall in love with arms, but I think they've learned that processing speed matters
00:32:55
more than AR. >> Can I ask if there's any data on have we looked maybe even just narratives? Have
00:33:02
we looked at the the every year lots of quarterbacks get their opportunities coming out of college. Is there any
00:33:08
consistent story that people tell about why those who don't make it don't make
00:33:12
it? And if it has to do with processing >> there processing go ahead. >> Yeah. I I mean I I was just going to say
00:33:22
I think processing is one of the things that they they try to get a handle on. Uh they'll look at stats like time to
00:33:28
throw versus completion percentage versus just some of the stuff that you could find if you go on some of the
00:33:33
advanced analytical sites. Um you know, as as you know, this is a big business, so they'll go all the way down to hand
00:33:39
size and things of that nature. Um my my hunch is just knowing, you know, h how these things tend to go, they they tend
00:33:45
to factor in as much as they can and then tell whatever story makes the most sense. To your point, Cade, given that
00:33:52
the Raiders are drafting first, that to me is interesting because even though it
00:33:57
seems like Mendoza will be the overall surefire pick, the Raiders are a franchise throughout
00:34:03
their storyried past that tend to get really romantic over a guy who's quick
00:34:09
or a guy who can throw the ball a country mile. They're not always focused on the full package. Um, which I to a
00:34:15
large extent Mendoza has. I don't think he's a perfect prospect, but I'm I'm
00:34:19
curious to see nonetheless, though I think he will be the number one pick, what they surround him with and how they
00:34:25
try to bring him along with a new coach because um there's not a great recent
00:34:29
track record right now for uh them turning, you know, uh college prospects into all pros.
00:34:36
>> Well, of course, Tom Brady is advising them and so that should be interesting,
00:34:40
right? Um but I just want to ask you another question about to's point. I think Cade mentioned earlier on the
00:34:45
show, which was I would imagine one thing you could do, like I was lamenting Josh Allen, but not so the four
00:34:53
turnovers, yes, but more so him missing the tight end. But at least I'll go I
00:34:58
want to talk about what Cade said there. At least he went to the right guy. He didn't complete it. Like there's two
00:35:04
sources of error. One is I went to the wrong receiver in the sense of expected points or expected yards or I missed
00:35:13
that receiver. Those are two different errors. Couldn't that be measured? Couldn't we look at whether Carson Beck
00:35:20
goes to the given where everybody is on the field and the situation? Couldn't we
00:35:26
look at the correctness of choice for quarterbacks and score people that way and then separate that out from the
00:35:33
error? I miss that person. >> Well, so two points on that, right? The the first thing is I don't know if I've
00:35:40
found a way yet to to quantify that. At least that's in some sort of public arena that I can digest it. But my hunch
00:35:47
is that that type of thing is already going on when they're scouting in advance of making these picks. Um
00:35:52
there's a ton of tape on all these guys. I'm sure that there are people going
00:35:55
through that with a fine tooth comb. But then there are other things, and I think
00:35:58
this is something that flies a little bit more in the face of somebody like Beck. Um, PFF is an example of some
00:36:04
place that tracks turnover worthy throws and things of that nature. So, it's not
00:36:10
necessarily saying that he's going to the right place, but it is some sort of
00:36:14
gauge over the accuracy of the throw. Is he throwing into traffic? Is he taking risks that don't need to be there? Those
00:36:21
types of stats. And I don't have that one in front of me, unfortunately, but I
00:36:24
could get it. I know that's something that Beck has struggled with here over
00:36:28
the last two seasons of college ball. It's making sure not only he's going to
00:36:33
the right spot, but that it's an accurate throw. And so that I think is one area where my hunch is if we looked
00:36:40
at the numbers comparing Mendoza to back in that capacity, that's an area where
00:36:44
it would be a clear advantage for Mendoza. >> Of course, I'm sitting here just one
00:36:47
last thing on this exact point. I'm just wondering which one's more teachable.
00:36:51
Can you which one would you rather like if I told you you could have someone with great making great choices but
00:36:58
weaker accuracy or someone with greater accuracy but weaker choices which would you which do you think is more
00:37:04
coachable? I want both but if it and yeah that's my question. I have no idea
00:37:10
but it's an interesting question because that has implications for who you draft.
00:37:15
I I want the more coachable guy. I want the more coachable guy who wants to be a
00:37:20
student of the game and you know can can understand. I mean look I nobody Fernando Mendoza is a deceptively good
00:37:27
athlete and we have seen him use his legs. We have seen him have a real innate sense of the pocket around him.
00:37:34
He is clearly a good athlete. He is not a statue back there. You're not going to
00:37:38
confuse him with Lamar Jackson. That is just not his game. He also doesn't have
00:37:43
the strongest arm in the world. It's not a bad arm. he's going to be the first
00:37:46
overall pick, but let's not act like he's Brett Favre. The fact that the fact
00:37:51
of the matter is his processing and his ability to digest tape and recognize before the snap and after the snap what
00:38:00
is what's going on that has propelled him now to new heights to win the Heisman Trophy and to be in this
00:38:06
conversation for the number one overall pick. I would almost always rather provided we're not talking about like a
00:38:11
full-on pop gun arm. I would always rather the guy who knows where to go with the ball, can digest what's
00:38:16
happening around him, but can play quick. So, I would probably go Mendoza in that in that.
00:38:22
>> All right, Ty, I want to ask you one other Indiana question, then we want to
00:38:24
move to some more general college football topics. The other Indiana question I have for you sounds absurd,
00:38:28
but I think this is actually what I what I'm curious about. Signetti, overrated
00:38:33
or underrated? And it's absurd because he's been praised to the moon lately.
00:38:37
They praise Indiana so much over the last month that I started pulling from Miami just to get over it. It's just
00:38:42
ridiculous how much praise. But in the end, I wonder in the end I wonder whether we're undervaluing what Signiti
00:38:50
did here and we're talking about the Portal and Indiana and James Madison transfers and all that stuff. And I
00:38:56
mean, so maybe it's replicable because other schools do, but maybe he's just
00:38:59
this unicorn of a coach that you're never going to replicate because we had Sabin in front of us for all those years
00:39:05
and nobody could replicate Sabin. So Signetti, overrated or underrated? I think he's underrated. And it's it's
00:39:16
>> it's crazy to even say it, but consider the context here for Indiana.
00:39:23
This is a program with 715 losses in its program history. I believe that is the most in the 156 years or the last 156
00:39:34
years of college football. So, it's not like he was hitting the ground running
00:39:39
at a place like a Georgia or even a place like a Texas Tech where there was something of a football tradition.
00:39:45
>> They had three Big 10 wins in the previous three seasons before you got
00:39:49
there. Three in conference wins in years. >> Exactly. So, not all situations are
00:39:57
created equal. And also, as you know, college football has changed very quickly. Everybody is
00:40:04
taking a boatload of transfers at this point. Not everyone's taking 40, but most are taking anywhere between 5 to 10
00:40:11
to plug some holes depending on what you need. So, everybody is doing the same thing in the transfer portal. Everybody
00:40:17
is going out there. Everyone's trying to boost their roster in whichever way they
00:40:20
see fit. And Signetti was able to take a program that was dead, completely boot it up from scratch,
00:40:28
basically install a new operating system, and get this thing running at optimum efficiency
00:40:34
in 26 months. He's got 27 wins in 26 months, and now a national championship. So for him to
00:40:42
turn this around as quickly as he did and get them playing at this level with guys in both seasons that were cobbled
00:40:51
together from other programs, whether they were castoffs or just guys he wanted to bring with him from his
00:40:56
previous stop. Whatever the case, for him to do this as quickly as he has done it, to me that indicates you can't
00:41:04
handwave this thing and just say, "Oh, it's the it's the transfer portal." He
00:41:07
got lucky with his guys. He won 11 games in year one. He obviously went 16 and0 this year. Whatever he is doing,
00:41:14
whatever his process looks like, and there's been much written about, they practice a little bit less. They're a
00:41:20
little bit more focused on communication and discipline, and it's a little bit of
00:41:24
a different setup, but it's very process driven. Whatever that is is clearly
00:41:30
working to a degree that nobody saw coming. So, I just I don't know how you can look at what he's done over the last
00:41:36
two years and feel like he's he's overrated at this point. I mean, maybe
00:41:40
he's not underrated, but he's certainly not overrated given what we have seen
00:41:44
now over the last two seasons. >> Yeah, I was just wondering, so I actually just looked quickly. It's easy
00:41:49
to find. I just looked at their record this year. I don't know if this is worth
00:41:52
anything to evaluate coaching, but I did just look at their record against the spread.
00:41:59
And so they're about the 30th team in the in the college football this year against the spread. Now maybe it's
00:42:05
because him as a coach is already built into the line. So that could be one explanation for it. Or it could be, you
00:42:13
know, he has really good talent. He's performing well compared to that talent,
00:42:19
but not extraordinarily well. Is that worth anything to you? I mean, I'm not
00:42:23
saying that's the right way to measure it. I'm just asking your question. They
00:42:25
were 10 and six this year against the spread. Yeah, I mean, and there was a crazy stat
00:42:33
before and I'm going to blank on it a little bit now before the game where his
00:42:37
record when he is a touchdown or more favorite is just off the charts. And I I think what has
00:42:45
>> in a good way in a good way >> and what I think has very much defined
00:42:50
his early tenure now as Indiana coach is something we can't really quantify and
00:42:56
maybe this is as close as we'll get to it but killer instinct. Killer instinct.
00:43:01
It's the thing that Mario Crystalall has been criticized for not having at times
00:43:06
but signetti goes for the throat. He will try to take you out. He put up 63 points at Illinois, right? He obviously
00:43:15
destroyed both Alabama and Oregon. The guy knows how to keep playing and keep his foot on the gas when his teams get
00:43:21
up. >> So, we can talk a lot about him winning on the margins. >> Go ahead.
00:43:26
>> I just want to add one element to that because I I think you're raising
00:43:29
something interesting and true, but it may be underappreciated yet. It's not
00:43:32
just it's not just keeping your foot in the grass, even though it is that. And
00:43:35
there are plenty of coaches, we've all had coaches of our teams who got too conservative with the lead because
00:43:41
there's a little risk. The the key to making that interesting is that there's
00:43:45
risk involved. It's like his going for the touchdown last night on fourth and
00:43:49
five instead of the field goal. He's like, I'm going for the kill. And it's
00:43:53
only interesting because there's downside risk to this choice. And it made me as a Texas fan, it made me think
00:43:59
immediately of Kirby Smart's onside kick after they went up whatever they went up
00:44:05
10 or something um over Texas in the regular season game this past year and then shocking everybody onside kicked
00:44:12
recovered and scored the game that put scored the there's risk there. It's not
00:44:16
it's not interesting to just say it's not as interesting to say killer instinct. I kick them when I'm down.
00:44:21
It's like no I take extra risk to put them away. I'm willing to do that because most coaches get conservative in
00:44:27
those situations opposed to even dialing up the risk in order to get it done. >> Yeah. And the the other thing that I was
00:44:34
going to add to the question about Indiana versus the spread, you're right, 30th in their win percentage versus the
00:44:42
spread. They were first in terms of their covering points per game, right? So, they were covering by a larger
00:44:47
margin when they covered than almost every other team than than in fact every other team in college football. So, you
00:44:54
know, that that sort of underscores the point of Signetti, as you said, K just doing whatever he can to put teams away.
00:45:01
It might be worth the risk. If it works out for you, great. You're going to get
00:45:06
a win. You're going to put the game on ice. If not, then that's a conversation.
00:45:09
But, um, he he has just had a really innate sense for when to push a little bit harder, when to roll the dice. We
00:45:16
saw it on fourth and five in the national championship game on that quarterback draw for Fernando Mendoza.
00:45:21
just they have a really good sense right now when they've got the wind at their
00:45:25
back for when they should push a little bit harder and take those chances. I just love that call cuz as Kate brought
00:45:32
up earlier, there's so many things about that situation. You're up three, you
00:45:37
could go up six up six, you know, oh, you don't get it. Oh, then the other team is not as aggressive because they
00:45:44
try to kick the field. There's so much about that that that will be talked about from an analytics but even a
00:45:50
psychology perspective and a you know go for the kill perspective for years that's almost was like the perfect storm
00:45:57
of even if the quote unquote as Audi said earlier too the analytics had it even you know there's so much other
00:46:06
stuff that suggests going for it there and the the only other point that I would add on that play all the things
00:46:14
that we're talking about here with Signetti. I mean, what it amounts to is the right players in the right scheme in
00:46:21
the right process at the right time. That play was, I think, something that signifies what the entire Curt Signetti
00:46:30
experience has been about so far. You've got this quarterback in Fernando Mendoza
00:46:35
who's a good enough athlete, but knows how to process. You've got the preparation, which is what told them
00:46:42
that's why they called the timeout. and the preparation is what told them what
00:46:45
type of defense to expect. Fernando Mendoza and his ability to process is what told him at the line of scrimmage
00:46:52
that Miami was in fact not in that defense that they were in something of a hybrid coverage and he made the call on
00:46:59
his own after they snapped the ball. It was if it was man coverage, they were throwing it. If it was zone coverage, he
00:47:06
was supposed to run it. They played half man, half zone. He decides to run it. He
00:47:10
trusts in his own process. He puts a move on a guy, kind of sidesteps him and ends up takes a shot, but ends up diving
00:47:17
into the end zone to give them that 10-point cushion. So, that play in and of itself, I think, was a really
00:47:22
interesting microcosm for the Signetti experience so far, and how it really is just the right process, the right
00:47:29
players, knowing what to do, doing the the little things on the margin a little bit better than the opponent.
00:47:34
>> Do we get to do I get to ask Tai Cade what would be a successful season for
00:47:37
Indiana next year? So, what does So, what now? So, they went to 11 wins. Obviously, a great season. I just don't
00:47:43
remember. Did they make the playoffs last season? >> Yes. And they got smoked.
00:47:47
>> They did. They They made the playoffs with 11 wins. Um, lost to Notre Dame in
00:47:52
the playoff, but uh that was sort of Kurt Signetti's coming out party. It It
00:47:57
was a very big deal. >> What's the expectation now? Like, is it Let me think about it. Let's They're
00:48:02
thinking about expanding to 16 teams, but let's pretend they stay at 12 for now. Um, is it like anything worse than
00:48:09
I'll call it final four a bad season? Now, >> I think you got to get back to the
00:48:15
playoff. I think I think if you lose in the playoff, um, you know, that's that's
00:48:21
understandable. You're not going to be able to replicate this every year. Most
00:48:25
most recent fans understand that. But there is a there is an element here of like once you fly in first class once or
00:48:32
fly on the private jet that's just sort of who you want to be, you know, and uh
00:48:37
I I'm Indiana's a very big institution as I'm sure sure you gentlemen know.
00:48:43
It's got a huge alumni base, the largest living alumni base in the country. This
00:48:48
is a program that uh is going to want to reinvest in this football program and they're going to want to try and
00:48:53
replicate the success as much as they can. So, I we were looking at their schedule a little bit last night. I
00:48:59
mean, they've got a really strong portal class again coming in next year. It's
00:49:02
going to be much of the same conversation, even though there'll be some new faces. Um, I I would expect 10
00:49:08
wins. I I think it the expectation starts at 10 wins. Of course, you get an injury. I mean, a lot can happen over
00:49:13
the course of a year, but uh if I'm an Indiana fan, knowing that they've got
00:49:17
this train rolling now with Signetti and that talent is is seemingly a little bit
00:49:22
more apt to go there, uh you If I were a fan, I would expect I would want 10 wins to get into the playoff and
00:49:29
give themselves another shot. >> All right. Um, Mendoza's little brother,
00:49:34
who was a backup quarterback this year, announced for the portal this morning. So, that's because they've pulled in uh
00:49:40
Josh Hoover from TCU. Unless you're a real football college football guy, you may not know Hoover
00:49:46
TCU quarterback. One of the highest regarded prospects in the in the college football right now. So, he's got his
00:49:52
supposed Mendoza lined up. Ty, talking about the portal, I one of the things I want to talk about with you a little bit
00:49:59
here, and I want the guys to get at least a little bit of this before they have to roll off is the portal itself.
00:50:05
And I think of you as being in touch as in touch with college football fandom as
00:50:10
anybody out there. I can't think of anybody better than you and Dan asked this question to. like what is the
00:50:15
current vibe on the portal and and therefore what do you think the consequences are
00:50:21
going to be of the portal world we live in now and of course it may change but where and on our current trajectory what
00:50:28
are the consequences pro and con of the portal and I want to say one thing about
00:50:32
it before I give it to you last year which is the first full year of the portal being a fan of a big school you
00:50:39
and Dan are fan of fans of big schools so Ty went to Penn State he was raised in a nerd family. Those are his schools.
00:50:45
Dan Rubenstein, his partner, Oregon guy. So, we we're kind of the alpha schools.
00:50:50
I'm a UT guy. So, it's like, yes, the portal. Give me all your players. You
00:50:54
know, that's kind of the initial vibe. And then 2025 rolls around and all of a
00:50:58
sudden tide turns and other programs start stealing all our young players. And you realize it doesn't it's not it's
00:51:06
not a one-way street here that the that the Blueb Bloods just can't sit on top
00:51:10
of it and be fed. they're actually going to get robbed as well. So, it's more of
00:51:15
an equilibrium than we thought and it's a new experience for some of us. And I
00:51:19
could use a little therapy about it. But more generally, I'm just curious. It's a
00:51:23
no 3,000 4,000 something like that players change teams. I think 4,000 went in maybe 3,000 changed teams. I It's
00:51:30
unbelievable. I'm curious you, Ty, from your perspective, what's the vibe? What are
00:51:37
the consequences? Uh fans are exhausted from the transfer portal. Um college football, if it weren't enough that
00:51:49
college football changes the rules like every two years and they make people relearn the playoff system, the
00:51:56
conferences, whether guys can get money. I mean, think of all the things that have
00:52:01
changed just in the last 5 years. The portal is only accelerating. It is basically non-stop free agency. If you
00:52:10
root for pro sports, you know how dizzying free agency can be. Whether you're a baseball, a basketball,
00:52:15
football fan, I mean, it's it's a lot. So, the fact that this is always going
00:52:20
on all the time, I think has left fans, at least people that write into us, tired of it, exhausted by it. Now, that
00:52:29
being said, a we make content, so from our standpoint, it's a lot to talk about, and it's interesting. It's
00:52:36
interesting to have guys kind of find themselves in new situations. Josh Hoover who wanted to go to to Indiana
00:52:42
initially ends up at TCU now he's going back to India. Like you get these really
00:52:45
odd pairings that you wouldn't have thought otherwise. And there's a little
00:52:49
bit of like mystique to it now with how much is so and so getting paid. Is he really worth all that much? You have
00:52:54
that whole component to it which I think is is an interesting conversation. But the pros and cons side of this is
00:53:02
very intriguing. The pros, I think, from a fan standpoint is stories like we saw
00:53:08
with Indiana are now possible. This was a gigantic proof of concept that a team that started from the bottom is now
00:53:16
here. >> Give me a break. That doesn't happen. That wouldn't have happened 10 years
00:53:21
ago. Not in a million years. >> Well, can it happen? Could it have happened just over a very long period of
00:53:27
time as opposed to you know it's a two-year turnaround from I don't know
00:53:31
how many you guys probably know what they win three games the year before Signetti got there. So they went from 3
00:53:36
to 11 to the 16 and0 national champion. Yeah. Yeah, I mean it I'm not sure I
00:53:43
don't even have the number in front of me what he was the year what they were
00:53:45
the year before he got there, but like yeah, I I suspect and and we've seen this, right? I mean, there there have
00:53:52
been some of those moments throughout the course of college football history where a team out of nowhere has sort of
00:53:58
bubbled up, right? TCU is a fairly recent example of a team a couple years back played against Georgia, got
00:54:04
creamed, but they got there. They got there. And among the TCU people I talked to in that moment, they were just sort
00:54:11
of happy. They were happy to be there. They felt like they were playing with house money. There was no expectation
00:54:15
that that would carry on, that they could replicate that anytime soon. But I think that part of it has changed on the
00:54:22
fan side of things. To the earlier point about what's a realistic expectation for
00:54:26
Indiana, they did it once, now there's no reason to think in this climate where
00:54:30
people want to go to Indiana that they can't do it again. So, I think just this
00:54:35
fact that some of the talent has now been spread around college football, it's really tough to hoard talent the
00:54:41
way that the SEC was doing five, six, seven years ago. That makes it, I think, a better fan experience. And I also
00:54:47
think from the player side of things, it's good that they have some agency that they can move around if they want
00:54:53
to, much like coaches can. That's all good stuff. What's bad is that none of
00:54:59
this is sustainable right now, right? So, we're all in a bit of a sugar rush.
00:55:04
At least the players and some of the teams are that are heavily involved in the transfer portal. But on some level,
00:55:10
there has to be guard rails put up to kind of rein this thing in to enforce contracts to make sure that we don't
00:55:18
have just just constant revolving door. Um, on on some level, there will be a question of return on investment. If
00:55:26
you're putting millions upon millions of dollars into your chosen college football team,
00:55:32
how is that worth it for you? Uh will guys stop investing if suddenly the bottom falls out one year and there are
00:55:40
a bunch of injuries and it it goes south. So that whole side of it, the financial component and just the
00:55:46
constant instability of things, I think is a is a really like that is a blinking
00:55:52
red light that I know a lot of people know about. I don't know what solves it.
00:55:57
Maybe it's making players officially employees and giving them more binding agreements once they're once they're at
00:56:03
a given institution. But um you know, it's it's a really interesting push pull
00:56:07
right now between wanting to give the players more power, which is how this all started, but at the same time not
00:56:12
wanting to put college football in a position where it's even more unstable than it's been in the past.
00:56:17
>> Ty, you began that last part by saying it's unsustainable. And I think that's a
00:56:22
word that many of us feel, but it could be unsustainable for any number of reasons. And if you had to put your
00:56:31
chips on what breaks, like what will break that causes reform because something has to break or come close to
00:56:39
breaking. So flashing red lights are not enough. Someone has to like go through the intersection and get hit before
00:56:44
something gets done about this thing. What's going to break that's going to
00:56:47
lead to some kind of change? Well, we're we're having a really interesting
00:56:51
example of that right now because amid this national championship run or playoff run, I guess I should say, for
00:56:59
Miami, uh Miami came to the realization that they weren't going to get any of
00:57:03
the other portal quarterbacks and they needed somebody for next year because they want to keep this going too. And so
00:57:08
they turned their sights on Darien Mensah, the quarterback from Duke, who just resigned an agreement with Duke and
00:57:17
is now trying to throw his name in the portal and take his talents to South Beach. So, we're going to find out here
00:57:23
in relatively short order what happens to that agreement. Duke has announced as of earlier today that they're going to
00:57:30
sue Mensah. They're going to try and enforce that agreement. And it'll be
00:57:34
really interesting to see what the result of that suit ends up being. That's the type of thing that could have
00:57:41
far-reaching ramifications in terms of NIL and the transfer portal and just in general, I would say player movement. If
00:57:47
in fact a court or whoever finds that these contracts are enforcable and he can't leave because they won't let him
00:57:53
and he signs something, then I I think guys will be a little bit more apprehensive about putting themselves in
00:57:59
a bad situation. Right now there is this culture of well if I go somewhere and sign an agreement I don't got to worry
00:58:04
about I don't got to worry about it I can just go somewhere else next year. But certainly when we're talking about
00:58:09
this higher price talent where we're talking about multi-year agreements and
00:58:13
things of that nature, um I it's not often that I'm rooting against the players, I would say, in general, but I
00:58:20
think this is one area that they could definitely have a positive impact uh if Duke were to win this case and find that
00:58:29
these contracts are enforcable and guys can't just pick up and leave willy-nilly. So that that's a really
00:58:34
obvious one that I think we're going to play out here in relatively short order.
00:58:38
The other thing that I would throw out, Kade, is, you know, the college football
00:58:42
calendar is still kind of screwed up. Uh it maybe was a little bit better this year. They did away with two transfer
00:58:47
portal windows. Previously, there was one in the winter, one in the spring. Now they combined them both, but it
00:58:52
opened during the playoffs, which is still weird, even though teams in the playoffs got a little bit more of a
00:58:57
grace period. So, I I feel like that puts college football in a really uncomfortable bind sometimes depending
00:59:04
on where guys want to go and when they want to do it. And so, I think some combination of the lawsuits with maybe
00:59:11
trying to make the calendar a little bit better if that's at all possible. That's
00:59:15
a start. But there the the whole money side of this is like its own podcast episode completely. That's that's going
00:59:21
to be a longer conversation. >> Yeah, it's a podcast series probably more than anything. Well, I like I I
00:59:26
like your answer a lot actually. It's very practical. It says probably going
00:59:30
to be a contractual thing, probably going to be court as opposed to the fans who retired or the coaches who are
00:59:36
retired. That's a real issue for long-term sustainability. But that's that that could wither away for a long
00:59:42
time before it was enough of a crash for them to do something about. But how these contracts get enforced or don't
00:59:49
get enforced is a big one. And then, you know, depending on how that goes, you get schools learning that the portal
00:59:54
isn't the answer to every need. And so, you end up in seasons without a quarterback. You know, it's so funny,
01:00:01
Ty, though, like it's such a change. When we were growing up, teams of course
01:00:05
went through cycles where you're starting a sophomore, you're starting a
01:00:08
freshman or whatever. That's just what happens. You're sometimes you don't have
01:00:10
a good middle linebacker, but now the expectation is you have to fill every hole on your roster in full and by God,
01:00:18
you can do it because there's a portal. It still seems unrealistic. >> It It is. And look, I mean, uh, not to
01:00:25
go too far down the path of of the money conversation, but there there were already talks um, just this week about
01:00:33
right now there's a cap on how much of the revenue schools can share with their
01:00:38
athletes. There there's a talk about wanting to get rid of that cap altogether, wanting to give schools the
01:00:43
right to pay guys as much as they want. So, you know, it college football has always been
01:00:49
>> this battle of David versus Goliath. It's part of what makes it such a charm
01:00:53
sport and what gets people fired up to watch every Saturday is that constant thrill of a potential upset. Um, we are
01:01:01
what's going on right now though it I think has allowed a little bit more parody at the power conference level and
01:01:07
has definitely spread talent out a little bit more. We're seeing a lot of this halves versus have nots thing on
01:01:14
the financial side. And so longer term, this mindset of we have to fill every hole in the roster with high price
01:01:21
talent with the best guys that are available to us, the best guys money can buy. Uh eventually eventually I think
01:01:28
that prices a lot of the smaller schools out of the competitive market and that's
01:01:33
a problem. I I don't personally want to see that even though, you know, we're
01:01:37
sort of used to the blueb bloodoods driving the sport. Um I I would prefer a sport that is not that lopsided in terms
01:01:43
of resources. So, we'll see. I you know, we're we're still at the tip of the
01:01:47
iceberg with this whole thing. >> Okay. Helpful helpful reports from uh from your perspective, your your rich
01:01:54
perspective. Um, one one more report from you, Ty, before we go and we just we'll try to wrap up quick because we're
01:01:59
kept you overtime already. But, um, Penn State has, you know, if not for all the
01:02:04
craziness of the intervening two months, it's even been longer since they fired
01:02:08
their coach. Penn State was the story early in the season. I mean, Penn State and my team Texas, these were one and
01:02:14
two in the year coming in and both fell pretty hard, but Franklin lost the job as a process. Didn't sign anybody. Then
01:02:22
they [ __ ] around through most of the coaching carousel before landing on what at some years has been the hottest coach
01:02:29
available. But Matt Campbell, Iowa State, he brings a lot of his players, including his quarterback at, you know,
01:02:35
Penn State. It's like it's our that's our state institution. It's the local
01:02:38
big college program. You're you went there. What what's the what's the sense right now now that
01:02:46
they've come through all that craziness? Is there optimism? Is there hope? How do
01:02:49
you think they're going to do right off the bat? like what what's your take?
01:02:52
>> I think there's a lot of optimism to be honest with you and it it's kind of like
01:02:57
a natural segue to go from talking about the transfer portal to talking about Penn State
01:03:02
>> because >> for as much of the conversation right now is about who can we get to move from
01:03:07
program A to program B, >> there is a much bigger conversation that takes place when coaches move.
01:03:15
And addendum to those co coach conversations is now how many of your other guys can you bring with you? not
01:03:20
just your assistants, but how many of your players can you bring with you? And uh to the point, Matt Campbell has very
01:03:26
much been a name in demand. He's not done a great job of advertising what he's done at Iowa State, even though
01:03:31
he's done a remarkable job. And he has been in the running for some really big
01:03:36
jobs, but he has waited. He has been picky. Penn State totally botched the process to try and hire a new coach. I
01:03:43
think that's been well documented at this point. But the fact that Matt Campbell fell off the back of a truck
01:03:48
and into their waiting arms with all of these guys from an otherwise pretty good
01:03:53
Iowa State team, it doesn't need to be pretty, it just needs to work. And in
01:03:58
that sense, I I think it worked. So much of what he has done in the early going in State College has, I think, been very
01:04:06
very exciting. He did bring a lot of guys with him from Iowa State, including his quarterback, Rock Obeck, who will
01:04:13
probably already be the best quarterback Penn State's had in the last 10 years.
01:04:17
Um I I think he has done a really good job piecing this thing together kind of on the fly and very very quickly, not
01:04:24
just with his own guys, but uh we're also now seeing like some guys who were
01:04:29
interested in Penn State previously in the high school recruiting game throw their name back in the in the ring,
01:04:36
maybe be interested in Penn State again. It seems like they're able to ratchet
01:04:39
that up a little bit more. So, I think the combination of the talent that he's
01:04:43
going to have on hand, which for all intents and purposes is a hybrid of the best of Penn State and the best of Iowa
01:04:50
State, combined with what their schedule looks like next year, which to my eye looks very advantageous. I'm not saying
01:04:57
they're making the playoff, I don't want to go that far, but I think this is a
01:05:02
team that's going to be competitive right away. And given the way this all went down after those losses this
01:05:08
season, if you're a Penn Stater, you got to take that and and be pretty damn
01:05:12
happy with it, right? You you will take that a million times over. It's a different mentality. It's a different
01:05:17
philosophy. It's obviously a different coach altogether. Um, but the thing with
01:05:22
James Franklin had definitely run its course. Not crazy about the way he was fired,
01:05:27
but I think it was time to move on and and kind of change the landscape a little bit. And uh I'm excited to see
01:05:32
what Matt Campbell can do. >> To an outsider, it feels like it must feel very different to think about
01:05:38
football under somebody other than Franklin, other than James Franklin. It felt like over the years couldn't get
01:05:43
over the hump. Lots of It's like almost RC Slokum from a previous era with the
01:05:46
Ais 10 and two, 10 and 10 and two. It's like they can't beat the the two teams
01:05:50
they need to beat. And it just got a heavier heavier heavier cloud. And it sounds like even inside the program, it
01:05:55
just got so weighty. Y'all must feel like a whole new day. like Meadows and Flowers and here's Matt Campbell and a
01:06:01
new coach and it just it h I'm just guessing it feels very different. >> It well it it does and I mean we're
01:06:07
talking about two guys that have been successful in their own right with very different philosophies and you know even
01:06:12
if we want to bring it back to the transfer portal and bring it back to compensation and things of that nature.
01:06:18
very different philosophies between James Franklin who basically paid everybody the same amount and how most
01:06:24
other places are doing it where you're paid a little bit more based on your production and that I think was a
01:06:30
sticking point in some of the leaked audio that came out from Pat Craft. It appears as if that very much was an
01:06:36
issue that he had with the way that Franklin ran things. I think that's going to change now. I I think Matt
01:06:41
Campbell just has a fundamentally different philosophy. He's never been in a place like this that has these kinds
01:06:47
of resources to throw at football, right? >> And so that in and of itself, I think,
01:06:51
makes this a really exciting opportunity. Taking a guy like that who was he built his career on making more
01:06:58
out of less to now give a guy like that more doesn't mean he's going to make the
01:07:02
playoff, win a conference championship, even win a playoff game. But I I like your chances of putting a guy like that
01:07:08
in a situation like this. >> It's fun for college football, I think. I mean, you're right. It's no guarantee,
01:07:13
but it's a good experiment to run. Let's see this guy who's been the darling of
01:07:16
kind of the underresourced program tier and see how he does with Let's play that
01:07:20
game like a It's like a It's like a freaking uh TV show that making like let's put the
01:07:26
small town guy in the big on the big city. Um, okay. Last question that it seems relevant to me. Can is do we feel
01:07:33
bad? Should we feel hypocritical about kind of implicitly praising Campbell for bringing all his players with him while
01:07:41
having probably just railed on Lane Keifin for trying to get his guys to come from Miss to LSU?
01:07:49
Kein created a dog and pony show though, you know, and that's that's been the rub
01:07:54
on Kein. He's a good coach. He's obviously been very successful. He knows
01:07:59
how to work the transfer portal. We're already seeing that they've got the top
01:08:02
portal class given this most recent cycle. But um you know this constant will he won't he leave some of what I
01:08:12
think we heard about them sort of either overtly or under the radar recruiting Old Miss players to kind of jump in the
01:08:23
portal as Old Miss was getting set to play in its playoff game. Um the college football is a shady business. There's no
01:08:30
denying that across the board. But Lane Keifin definitely engaged in his fair share of shadiness
01:08:38
with the way things went down at Old Miss, both with leaving with his coaching staff and uh with the players
01:08:44
that he may have wanted to come with him. We didn't really see that from Campbell. I mean, first and foremost,
01:08:49
it's not like Iowa State was in the playoff. Iowa State, >> that's a big difference.
01:08:53
>> Was not in the playoff. It was it was a much cleaner break. He also wasn't out
01:08:58
there in the media tweeting about it and making a big deal about it. I mean, uh,
01:09:03
we didn't find out until very late in the game that Campbell was even a possibility. He never spoke about it
01:09:08
until the ink had dried. So, it I I think ultimately we're talking about two
01:09:13
guys with very very different personalities, which is is the biggest difference. But, um, you know, I to me
01:09:21
it doesn't feel quite as underhanded given the timing of when Campbell left to go to Penn State and certainly the
01:09:28
situation that Iowa State was in, uh, the one that he left behind in Ames. >> Okay. All right. Well, listen, uh, thank
01:09:35
you for the time, Ty. This is our last official college football podcast of the season. You were a perfect person to
01:09:42
wrap it up with. Wish you the best with all you have going on over at the Solid Verbal. encourage our listeners to pick
01:09:48
up Tai and Dan wherever you can. Solid verbal really the college football OG of podcast for sure been around since ' 08
01:09:56
and we're delighted to have Ty with us periodically. Ty H and Brett, >> thank you.
01:10:01
>> Many thanks to um Eric Bradlo and Audi Winer who were here for most of the show
01:10:07
before having to roll off to other responsibilities here this afternoon. for Shane Jensen in Absentia in the
01:10:12
classroom as well. For Dion Simpkins, always here doing the real work for the whole team. Thank you, Dion. Marissa
01:10:18
Raina, our producer, D Patel, the boss lady. Many thanks to the whole crew and thanks to you guys for listening. Come
01:10:24
back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports.