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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting this week's show with the full crew. Audi Winer is here. Shane Jensen is
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here. Eric Bradlo is here. We're recording on Tuesday afternoon as we typically do these days. The show will
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go up on Wednesday. We are going to do a standard format. We're going to have a
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guest in the first half hour, then roll into open lines in the second sometime in the second half hour, we'll roll into
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open lines. Lots of things to talk about, but in particular, this Super Bowl week, or rather Super Bowl two
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weeks, the conference championships for this past weekend, we know who is on, and that means it's a big betting
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weekend. We've got a friend in the sports betting space, former guest, frequent guest in
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our early years in particular, Rufus Peabody, sports better extraordinaire, quant
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of some fame. Rufus, thanks for making time for us. Appreciate you coming on the show.
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>> Well, Kade, you taught me everything I know. So, it's >> I taught you everything you knew when
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you were like 20. You're like 40 now. So, I think I I think I can't claim that
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anymore. >> I'm a man. I'm 40. [laughter] >> You're almost You're almost a man.
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You're almost No, you are 40. You are 40. That's right. >> I know. It's It's crazy. I don't know
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where all the time went. >> Well, you spin it well. You've done very well. Rufus has been He went straight
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from his undergrad into Las Vegas. Spent about a year working for LBSC back in the day and then rolled into his own
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betting group really from one year out of school. Been doing that full-time since then. Rufus is coming to us from
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Las Vegas, one of the places he spends a fair bit of time. In previous years, especially early on, this would have
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been a manic week for Rufus. He's kind of famous for his prop bets, Super Bowl
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prop bets, but he's um he's his portfolio looks a little different these
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days, and he assured me he had capacity to do the show this week despite that. Rufus, we want to catch up with you in
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general. The whole crew enjoys time with you. Lots of things we could ask you about, but the thing we're most
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interested in hearing from you on is what's going on in the sports betting world with these prediction markets.
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People have been talking about it, especially over the last year. Khi Poly Market, the two big leaders burst into
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this space, kind of wrangle their way around regulations, state regulations that don't legalize sports betting in
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like California and Texas. They've blown up. They're being valued at billions of
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dollars themselves. Of course, sports betting is massive. FanDuel and DraftKings, these companies are cap
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market caps are like 15 billion, $30 billion in the case of FanDuel. So, massive market. We need to understand a
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little bit from you about what's going on here. So, you know, why is prediction
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markets advantageous from a better perspective in particular? Let me just say one last thing. Rufus has been an
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evangelist on the side of the better for years. his guy his cause is you know better markets better rules better
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access fair play in some sense for sports betterers and I think that's one of the reasons he likes prediction
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markets but let's hear from you Rufus first off Jade um they're it's predicting it's it's sports
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predicting not sports betting I think we should get that straight >> okay >> very very different
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>> very so different >> um but as you as you alluded to I I do think um one really good thing about
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prediction markets is that they are markets. There is a counterparty um [snorts] in the case of Kshi, it's
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anonymous that you know you nobody can sit the counterparty can't see that they're trading against you [snorts] and
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there's no cap to how much you can get down. Um well the cap is the market liquidity and so with sports books like
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FanDuel and DraftKings limiting sharper people uh it it becomes very difficult to be able to get down. So um so so
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that's a big advantage. The other thing is the you're going to in some cases
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have tighter margins especially if you're making markets rather than taking the fee structure the the fee structure
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at Khi right now is actually set up in a way that isn't super advantageous for
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taking. Um you're basically paying at a 50 cent a line at 50 cents you're paying
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like 1.44%. Um, but on top of the bid ass spread. So if something was trading like 50 51, you
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take it at 51, that's 52.44%. That's a little worse than minus one or sorry, you take it at 51. Yeah, it's a
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little bit worse than minus 110 there. But um but it's it it's so so in general, it's not super price
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advantageous for a recreational better. Um and especially on call she with the a
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lot of people uh are able to bet through um Robin Hood. They have a distribution
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through Robin Hood and other brokers and I believe Robin Hood also takes a fee. So that makes it really
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>> coffee. Really? Wow. Okay. Interesting. >> But overall I would say for for somebody
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like me who like let's say there's a game I make it 52%. I'm never going to
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be betting that in a sports book. But if I can sort of make a price at 50 cents or 49 cents, um, you know, I I I
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suddenly have opened up a door to a lot more games I can bet on. >> Does somebody see since Ruf I don't use
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that site. Does somebody see the size of the, you know, let's call it ask that
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you're putting out there because one could imagine that if a sharp is putting
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a million dollars out there, I'll just use some big massive number. um then someone might say hm more or less less
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likely to take that bet. So h how how do you think about that from a how you structure your play on prediction sites
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like this? >> That that is a great point and a great question Eric and and it is something
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that that everybody can see. So you you can you can't see you know you can see that there's three
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million shares bid at 51 cents on some game. You can't see that it's one person
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to bid 3 million for example. But so if if like something like the Super Bowl money line um I don't think
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you have to worry about that at all. It's going to be one cent wide and with
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massive volume on either side. The problem there is just getting your offer taken because you're going to be so far
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back in the queue. Um, but it is definitely a concern and we ran into this at some point, especially with um
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with some of these other sweep stakes sites we were doing predictions on. Um, like for example, Novig um that's a a
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prediction market as well. And >> say more about what a sweep a sweep stakes site.
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>> Uh sweep stakes technically you're not betting money. you are you're depositing
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money and you get like draft or not draft kings you get like no vig bucks or something like that
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I don't know what it's called but but but you're betting those things which
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can be redeemable one to one for dollars at the end so the way around >> their scheme actually
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>> yeah yeah it's it's yeah a lot of states are closing this sweep stake sweep
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stakes loophole uh though now >> okay >> but there there was a market there might be
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a market trading at um you know maybe minus 110 on each side or something like that with $500 and if you put up $10,000
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um the first time you know it it works out okay but then afterwards it's it people or or I shouldn't say the first
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time but I think for a little while people were able to get good fills that way. Um, let's say, you know, maybe I
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want I'll take the minus 110. I'll offer a plus 110 um to somebody else, right?
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And they can go arb that with FanDuel or DraftKings maybe. Um, but if you put up
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a big enough order, someone's like, "Oh, this is clearly somebody sharp and and
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you're going to blow up the market." >> Mhm. >> People are right. It's, you know, I
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might get a little bit of fill, but but I'm not going to get enough fill to justify blowing up the market like that.
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Mhm. >> But >> I will say prediction markets like why I'm one reason I'm enjoying them so much
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is because it is a different game and you do need to like like the game isn't
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just clicking a bet in. It's it is there are market dynamics. It's understanding
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the order book. Um it's trying to put a position you think is going to get filled without um without tipping people
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off. Like iceberg orders, right? Like we have things that'll auto like automatically re-trigger a new order if
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you will have an order. So so like you know but then which which is what you need in more
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illlquid markets. >> Mhm. >> But you also don't want to go so small
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that other people join you and then suddenly you you lose Q priority and can't down as much. So yeah there
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there's I mean I can talk about this for hours. So, but this this is the kind of
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thing that you used to never I mean you you were a price maker essentially. You were you were a model builder for years
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and this is more like the trading aspect of it. And there are some people like your uh your good buddy whose name
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escapes me at the moment who just makes a living like a very good living just doing technical trading stuff in the
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traditional sports betting markets and those are very different approaches but with the prediction markets it feels
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like you're moving a little bit more towards being intrigued by the technical
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aspects the trading aspects of the prediction market. >> Oh I'm I'm very intrigued by it. It's
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it's so fun like you know you can just explore these markets and learn something new every single day. like you
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know the I I've spent a lot of time trying to create a flowchart to understand the logic of some of these
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bots I'm up against and be like I can you know if I can predict exactly what
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they're going to do you know you can generally kind of figure out uh push up
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buttons and figure out like a weakness because every every bot has a weakness who's the most famous well not most
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famous but the most successful sports better in or not sport the most successful better in general I think in
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the history of the world. Um he says that the best trader will always will always be better than the best bot.
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I mean the goal is to every bot has a weakness >> and >> because they're too rigid because
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they're too predictable because it is algorithmic. >> There's logic. I mean they're trying to
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be human. You're trying to program in all the in all your intuition understanding markets perfectly and
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inevitably there's cases that come up that you haven't encountered before and
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a bot is going to behave in a very predictable manner. I think the best bots actually have some random should
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have some rand there's like a TTO bot right you know some of the time it's
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going to jump the order when it should you know some of the time it's going to
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join um >> you would think so right >> you put up 500 shares and it gets filled
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does it replenish right like maybe it does 95% of the time when it you know when you normally would right but you
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don't want to you you don't want to be too predictable and honestly it's the
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same thing for a sports book I think most sports book like sportsbook auto movers are too predictable.
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>> If if I bet into this line, I know they're going to move two points off of
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me. Um that that's really good information to have, but it also allows but knowing that allows me to manipulate
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uh uh or not manipulate, but like >> to to um to to move a line a little bit
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if I want to. >> Sure. Sure. Sure. Rufus, tell us something about your sense of the
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dynamics with the prediction markets coming in. How what percentage of your business do you send to prediction
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markets now versus traditional outlets? And what's your sense of other sharp
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better say like all the sharp money moved? What fraction of the sharp money? It's an absurd question, but what's your
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sense >> have? I think it's it's still a small percentage for most people. I would say
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relatively. I mean to I guess to give you some perspective we've done in the
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last 4 months or so I think something like 165 170 million contracts on KHI but the other thing with KI is it's less
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predictable so each contract has to win a dollar um it it's less predictable though so
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there's some games where we will get very big fills on things and others we won't and so uh something like the
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conference championship games, you know, I I end up with positions across a like
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a wide range of of outcomes like al alternate spreads, totals, um some some prop stuff, too. And I can't predict
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exactly exactly what it's going to come in on. And I I have to have, you know,
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well, I should say we cuz it's me and my team. We have our system set in place to
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have some some positional limits. But it gets kind of difficult too when you when
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you have all these sort of correlated things. You know, if if I get filled a lot on um Seattle minus4 and a half,
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getting the Rams minus 14 and a half doesn't is that's not a that doesn't
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really offset it that that much, right? Um but so so there's all these Yeah. So
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So there's I'm not answering your question here, though. I I would say >> No, no. One thing you're saying is that
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it's it's less than I would I might have thought. The way you talk about the
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benefits and the value, you might think that you put all your business there, but you're saying there's still limits
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to what you can do. >> Yeah. I mean, it's if we want to fill $50,000 on a college basketball side,
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like we're still not generally doing that on a prediction market. It's, you know, we don't have the
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certainty we're going to get down that much. Like it's there's certain markets
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for example like the conference championship games NFL games where you can get tremendous
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amounts of volume down very easily but others where you can't. You know most of
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these college basketball games like there's some that trade like $800 pregame total like across all like
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spread total money line you know if it's like Drexel against Lyola or something.
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>> Yeah. Yeah. Okay, Rufus, what have been the sports books response to this? I
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know that DraftKings and FanDuel now are starting doing prediction markets of some kind, but you know that they have
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been the subject of withering criticism from people like yourselves. Are they learning? Are they adapting in any way
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or are they just going to play the same game and keep on doing their typical stuff on the sportsbook side?
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>> Well, I I I think that they see they see this as a risk, an existential risk, and
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probably rightfully so. And they do have their own sports prediction markets, I guess, of some sort. Like I know DRA
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DraftKings bets started and we looked into that. To be honest, I'm not convinced that DRA I'm I'm not convinced
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that it's actually a legit prediction market. I feel like it may just be DraftKings calling it that. Like part of
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me, the cynic in me says, right, because I I don't think it's an open I don't
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think it's like it's certainly not an open API and I don't think people can
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make on it. Um, you know, the cynic in me says DraftKings is just doing this to try to like bring down prediction
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markets so that they in general so that they go back to having their uh little little monopoly. But
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>> interesting. Okay. What does the industry think's going to happen with prediction markets?
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I know that it's turning in there's a regulatory question across states and
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even now federal government but there's also it kind of becomes a political question. Do people have senses of which
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way it's going to go? Well, I I think the consensus among the the sort of sharp betting community is that the next
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three years are probably going like prediction markets are a fairly safe bet especially given the amount of venture
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capital that's flowed into this and given the fact that uh Trump Junior's on
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the board of both Kali and Poly market. It seems it seems more than likely that unless the Supreme Court takes this up
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that that during the Trump administration prediction markets are probably pretty safe. um after that kind
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of all bets are off. So I think a lot of people were kind of focused on on that that sort of time frame.
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>> All right. Well, let me let Yeah, Audi, jump in, please. Oh, I'm sorry. Eric, I
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saw that there. Let me just Audi first. >> Audi, I've already asked a question.
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Aie, go and then I'll go after you. >> No, I'm just trying to get a lay of the
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land here. So, you're moving uh heavily into the prediction market. Um you never
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really bet in the FanDuel area in like because they limit you. Do you do sports bettings um more still in Vegas? Is that
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is that where things are shaking out for big bettors? >> We we sports bet out at anywhere and
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everywhere kind of it it's like um it it's this whole ecosystem Audi where
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there are people that there's like people that are movers that have operations that get accounts and can you
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know in essence get get like glorified middlemen, right? But but um like brokers if you will that exist. Um, we
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have we have our own accounts at at various places. There's the exchanges. We have people in Europe. Um, you know,
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we wish we had more connections in Asia to be honest because that's if you like
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China, that's where you really want to be if you can if you want to bet a lot
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of money. But, [snorts] um, it it's it's honestly it's a big logistical mess.
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Like I don't know how else to >> But that's no different than it has
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been. I mean, my sense of you, you used to be in a group of four four people and
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two of you guys were kind of the the number guys and two of the guys were more or less getting money down. Is that
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was that the right way to think about it? And that was kind of in traditional sports betting world. So, it's a a lot
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of the work has always been getting money down and it's just getting more and more complicated. It's
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extraordinary. >> Yeah. And it's it's it's very decentralized. We we use a lot of
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different people to help get us accounts to get to get down basically. >> Brad Loop.
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>> Yeah. So, let me ask you. So, just building off something you said earlier.
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So, since I'm Wharton's vice of AI and analytics, I might as well ask you an AI
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question. If I build an epsilon greedy reinforcement learning algorithm and ingest a lot of this data, am I going to
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start making some well, I'm going to choose an algorithm that um understands that if I make a bet
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today, there's some immediate payoff, but if I make a bet today, it's also
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potentially going to change the state of the world. If I, for example, could move
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the line, it could move people's perceptions of me. And so that's the way
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reinforcement learning algorithms work. Meaning there's an immediate payoff that
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I win this bet or not. Then there's it puts me it changes the future state of
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the world. And the epsilon greedy is what you said before which is I don't always necessarily choose the one that
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maximizes things. Sometimes I want to play a little randomness in there because randomness can have some
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benefits. So, have you seen in your world are people applying? Because now it's all the rage. If I was going to
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serve serve Rufus Peabuddy a display ad or if I was going to show you a price and I was a big tech firm, I would
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probably ingest a huge amount of data and optimize this using a standard computer science reinforcement learning
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algorithm. So I'm just wondering has that made its way as far as you know and
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the answer could be you don't know into the betting worlds >> in in in what sense
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in terms of modeling or in terms of bet like executing bets >> well someone trading off of that more on
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the quant side like it's telling you it's making some AI based recommendation
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of bets based on maximizing this objective function which is some blend of making money today and putting you in
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a better place tomorrow. I'm just wondering cuz this sounds to me like a very standard reinforcement learning
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problem, but I'm just wondering if like there's a ton of computer scientists
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just applying this stuff to data that they can scrape off these sites. >> Um, so in terms of like modeling actual
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events, like you know, I I think at some point like well I I'm not sure how much the future would
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be affected by how you model the event today. Um, I I think that I mean I think there's a lot of really smart computer
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science people looking at this stuff in general and especially um especially the
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the trading dynamics. I think that's where this is most interesting cuz how how you actually go about like trading
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like because you you have counterparties and let's say some counterparty has a
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weakness. If you exploit them like for everything right now, they're gonna wise
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up to it probably. But if you if you don't, you just take little bitty pieces and somebody else
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realizes this and then figures out the same weakness and then goes after them big, then you're like, well, I just left
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a bunch of money on the table. So I mean I personally I am not smart enough to to
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understand how how um how all the this this AI stuff works that you're talking
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about um the reinforcement learning stuff but um it's I mean it's such a
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like everything is changing so quickly and it's the kind of thing that I think is inherently very difficult to
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predict cuz you don't know I mean the market participants are changing right
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like you can build something and then this new company you know Jane Street launches um you know market making on on
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Khi or something and maybe it changes things right or or I mean look things are I I think we think of changes as
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happening more kind of smoothly but in my sports betting career I've realized
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that things kind of happen sometimes very suddenly like I thought I had this great bottle to to win betting second
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halves in college football in the NFL and I did for 5 years and then one year like I suddenly wasn't winning and and
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basically was just break even and I wasn't finding much value anymore. It's
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like the market had suddenly got more efficient. And it turns out that the guy setting the opening price at Bet Chris
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um who the the previous 5 years had retired um or or been told to step down and somebody new had come on who
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actually looked at the live lines before he posted the second half F line and and
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there were a lot of people out there that were holding that the weak openers that they had posted in place so that
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other books copied and then like people could get down and there was an opportunity But suddenly sharper openers
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had just happened just like that. Suddenly the opportunity was gone and I I kind of had no idea it was such a
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precarious like it was such like my edges were so fragile in that way. >> Right. Right. AI uh I got I guess I ask
00:23:20
a question of a comment. I'll start with a comment because I like what you just
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said. I do with my sports and gaming analytics class an example. I look at old NFL lines going back like 65 years
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and I show that in every decade betting heavily on a big home [laughter] dog is a very profitable bet and then it and
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then all of a sudden it's not just and I get them all to bet on whether they should continue that everyone's
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like oh my god yeah it's great how we're not doing this and it just disappears
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one day and and I have no idea why. You might actually be able to tell me why but it just is gone. Um so that's my
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comment. My question is guess sort of related to what Eric had to say. um when you're looking for edges, I can imagine
00:24:00
there's two directions. One is to just build better models and have better prices and know the probabilities better
00:24:07
and find mismatches and buy them. Um, the other would be to kind of look at just in general at the behaviors of the
00:24:14
markets and find out there's anything in the betting the the the the demand structure the way and this is kind of
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what Eric was talking about where you can find bets not by knowing not by studying say football or baseball but by
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studying the market and figuring out if there's advantages because I think that
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the question is Eric has is about that and you're like how is reinforcement going to learn about football you know
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and which it's not by the there's no end effort to do that something else and I
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imagine I don't know these markets well there's probably opportunities in both
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areas but but I but how about in the in the way this the bets are structured I I
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mean I think that's the whole I mean that like like so we're building automated market making stuff and this
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is what I've spent the last like four or five months like primarily doing um aside from my normal you know I still
00:25:05
have to run my golf model every week run the Massie Pbody ratings etc. But but the whole idea of understanding the
00:25:13
market dynamics, understanding like um how the market moves and I mean I I trying to trade and get two-way action.
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And what I've learned is that a lot of there's a lot of bots out there and by
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bots I mean automated market makers that other people are, you know, have created
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um that don't know anything about the mark like the the the sports betting market as a whole and are just trading
00:25:42
based on on the trades of other or the orders put up by other market participants.
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And I've found some that are very weak at this because they have nothing to anchor to. um you know in some wider
00:25:56
markets they can be uh pushed to a to give you a really good price. Um you know there there's bots that literally
00:26:06
in illlquid markets you know let's say something is trading um maybe it's like
00:26:11
a no touchdown market. It's it's trading like 82 cent bid 97 ask. Um you know if
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I put up 85 they'll put up 86. So I put up 87 they'll pull up 88. if I put up,
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you know, 93, they'll put up 94, right? I mean, there's there's there's some
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bots that are just like infuriating in in certain ways. And so the ones that are infuriating, you kind of want to
00:26:36
teach them a lesson so they stop so so they, you know, but I I I guess just to kind of comment on this, I feel like I
00:26:44
maybe brought up that like there's this like there's really two dimensions here.
00:26:47
There's the predictability of an event and then there's the irrationality of
00:26:52
behavior around that event. You know what I'm saying? And and and I kind of feel like I guess yeah, Audi was talking
00:26:59
about like you can build better and better models for finding out which events are truly like unpredictable
00:27:04
versus not or getting an edge, but it's like again without without even a comment on how predictable the actual
00:27:10
event is, are there certain behaviors? Yeah. like either bots or people exhibit that kind of like are are you know
00:27:18
arbitrageable or whatever like it's kind of an irrationality of betting behavior
00:27:21
whether it even automated or >> okay no no like no it was more of a >> but what I think one of the things
00:27:34
>> for me at least it increased my instinct to kind of have it on these two
00:27:36
different dimensions >> I will say you're right like so as Kade said like I've spent most of my career
00:27:41
building predictive models and and being less focused on the actual trading and and I've had partners doing that, but
00:27:47
that's more logistics than anything else. It's it's not like, you know, we
00:27:51
understand market dynamics, but the market like in general is going to move towards our price and we want to get
00:27:56
down as early as we can where we can still get enough money down, right? And and prediction markets are very
00:28:03
different. Um there is this whole it's a whole another game you're playing. Um
00:28:08
not trying to tip your hand. um you know like let's say I want to bet um and and actually putting up orders at
00:28:18
prices that you don't even think are good because if you know you can get two-way fill um you can effectively get
00:28:26
a better price that way. So, let's say the most I want on a particular event is
00:28:31
200,000 contracts. Um, and let's say I price this event at 60%. 60 cents. You
00:28:39
know, I could get let, you know, I could get 200,000 contracts at 55 cents and that's a great bet. But what if I could
00:28:48
get a million at 55 cents and then sell 800,000 at 57? That's way better, right?
00:28:55
And so a lot of it is like predicting where the order flow is going to come from. And like I made up this word fill
00:29:02
velocity where I you're kind of like it's my idea of like trying to figure
00:29:07
out um and I haven't actually built a model to do this but but it's fascinating to me because I don't it's
00:29:13
very I I don't think one can do this without AI by the way but basically given how how quickly something's been
00:29:20
filling what the top uh you know how how deep the queue is how many contracts are
00:29:27
at the sort of top ask price. So, um, and like trying to figure out what the likelihood I get filled in, you know, a
00:29:35
certain amount of time is. Um, but then, you know, you can have this and then something changes. the market move as a
00:29:42
whole moves and and so it's you know the way Kali is set up with 1 cent tick
00:29:49
sizes um is m makes it a very different game because it is so Q position uh or Q
00:29:58
priority is such is so important. So you really have to sort of like think ahead
00:30:05
um and and try to like like if I want to get filled on both sides of something and you know where one side might not be
00:30:16
posit isn't positive EV for me but overall I think I can get a better price that way like I have to put that order
00:30:22
up before I even get filled for the first you know the side I actually want right and so I mean there's some games
00:30:28
but but you know there's nothing more satis satisfying to me than some game where I was able to like,
00:30:34
>> you know, take one side at 85 cents and the other side at like 12 cents. It's
00:30:40
just even even though it's not the most it's not those aren't the biggest EV
00:30:45
trades I'll make, um there's something satisfying about getting filled both
00:30:50
ways and especially if I have something up and I literally see the action coming
00:30:54
in on both sides, I'm kind of like, you know, it's it's basically what a sports
00:30:57
book is, you know, trying to do. Are are you saying they're happy to get arbitragees, but they're not that
00:31:03
they're not they're not really that much profitable because the the gap is tiny,
00:31:07
>> right? I mean, well, I'm I mean, they can be quite profitable and the gaps,
00:31:11
you know, aren't the gaps are, you know, you won't see a market sitting there
00:31:16
with like a, you know, 90% over round or something like that most of the time. But, um, normally it's going to add up
00:31:24
to like 98 or 99 cents. Um, >> Rufus, one of the things I think I'm hearing from you is that you you and I
00:31:32
think maybe I've heard from you this other places is that the combination of
00:31:36
understanding fundamental value and understanding market mechanisms and market dynamics.
00:31:43
That combination is especially powerful. I think that combination is what sets us
00:31:48
apart because I think a lot of just market makers don't have something to anchor to or they're anchoring to the
00:31:54
market the sports betting market as a whole but the sports betting market as a whole is
00:32:01
also often times like well there are large moves sometimes and and it there's
00:32:07
times when it's more fragile than others and so um you know somebody can be like
00:32:13
oh the market's minus 2 and a half like I'm very happy to just take collect, you
00:32:18
know, to to give people big bets, you know, if I'm if if if I'm getting 47
00:32:24
cents on the dollar, basically if I'm getting the plus 110 or plus 112. Um, but that market might, you know, not
00:32:32
actually be the most efficient thing at the moment, especially if there's more
00:32:37
volume on Koshi. I think that's the bigger thing. There's there's we I've
00:32:41
seen this multiple occasions where um I'll get hit and then after that somebody will hit the sports books that
00:32:50
uh the on-screen sports books and basically the the sports betting market, DraftKings, FanDuel, Pinnacle, all those
00:32:58
books will move afterwards because normally you think like the thing is most market makers are sort of using
00:33:05
this the market the sports betting market as a whole as this sort a sense of truth but or
00:33:12
yeah that is that's their sort of golden or their northern north star I guess
00:33:19
but I mean it's I I it's it's interesting to see if how it'll keep
00:33:25
changing because I think a lot of you know what makes something efficient right price discovery
00:33:30
where is there more price discovery being done you know in some cases it's on koshi
00:33:36
>> right for sure okay Eric has a question But Eric, we need to wind this down
00:33:40
pretty quickly. So, what do you got? >> I was just going to ask one last question. Like, how complicated can bets
00:33:45
be in the sense of is it ever like the way we're going to make money on this,
00:33:50
let's call it event is to make 17 different bets, like three of them on FanDuel, four of them contracts on Khi,
00:34:00
six of them through this or that's just over complicating things. It's never I
00:34:05
mean I'm not saying you couldn't do that but is that just not ever done?
00:34:09
>> I mean I it sounds over like it's over complicating a little bit but I think it
00:34:13
all depends on price. If you can get the best price on FanDuel you know then take
00:34:17
the FanDuel. If you can get the best price on KI take the >> KHI. This is a a lesson you hear from
00:34:22
Sharps again and again and again. It's like price shop. Find you you need information go to the places where the
00:34:28
prices are best. That's going to be the quickest way to get yourself in an advantageous position. Mhm.
00:34:33
>> Um, Rufus, thanks for all of that phenomenal, very dynamic moment in that
00:34:39
whole world. Before you go though, this thing I've said about you for years is
00:34:42
fun to say. I say you're the world's best golf better. And I and it's fun
00:34:46
because it's a ridiculous thing to say, but it also might be true. And um, so
00:34:50
before you go, give us something on golf. Scotty Sheffller wins his 20th PGA title this weekend. First, I think the
00:34:57
second event of the year or whatever. Scotty Sheffer. Can >> it was his first event of the year, but
00:35:01
not Yeah. >> Not the overall. Okay. Give us something on golf. Eric probably has some question
00:35:06
about golf. Can you I know sometimes you're like, I'm not even paying attention to Scotty Sheffer. I'm just
00:35:10
running my model and betting, you know, the 79th most likely guy because he the numbers are right. Do you have anything
00:35:15
to say about Scotty Sheffler? I mean I think if you look at his last what two three years I mean it's right up there
00:35:24
with it is close to peak Tiger. It really is. I mean Tiger Tiger sustained it for a decade. Um but but he really is
00:35:36
on another level. I think it's kind of surprising because like Tiger looked so
00:35:40
athletic and and his swing looks so perfect and and Sheffller looks like he's about to fall down half the time
00:35:46
and and he he he doesn't really look like the athlete Tiger does but and it's
00:35:53
not classically beautiful but it's you know he is you know what is it what do they say
00:36:00
face to path impact or path path to face impact I don't know I mean he he's able
00:36:05
to consistently do it and and his distance control is just on another level. Um, and I think
00:36:12
that's something that is I think has separated him uh more than anything else
00:36:17
is his distance control with his irons is so much better than any other player on tour.
00:36:23
>> Give us a sense in your golf modeling like what's the cutting edge for you
00:36:26
right now? Like what are you trying to do in your golf model right now to make it better? What give us a sense of what
00:36:30
the frontier is? Well, well, the frontier is doing things that other people aren't doing, Kade, and other
00:36:36
people haven't even thought about doing. And and so if I actually talk about it,
00:36:40
then it it becomes not as valuable. [laughter] >> Give us something you did a year ago
00:36:46
that was that was on the frontier and now is no longer on the frontier. What's
00:36:50
an example of something you did you thought maybe [snorts] nobody else was doing even five years ago?
00:36:57
Well, I mean, there's so many interesting things I want to talk about here and I would if this was private and
00:37:05
but I would say look, I think it's just it's just asking interesting questions and
00:37:11
trying to quantify more nuanced elements of skill. >> Okay. Okay. Well, that's that's actually
00:37:17
informative that you're you're talking about going pretty obscure places to
00:37:21
find edges essentially because all the basics are baked in. Does it have to be baked on top of an already very sound
00:37:27
structural that's got the structure that's going to capture most of the fundamentals or can you come in kind of
00:37:31
new if you if you've got a new thing and it's the only thing you got is there
00:37:35
edge there or does it have to be on top of a foundation? For me, it's on top of
00:37:39
a foundation. But I guess it depends on if you're like if you could come in and
00:37:43
say, "Okay, the market is broadly efficient, but I think I found that this certain thing is undervalued or
00:37:49
overvalued or I I don't think the market is fully capturing this." Um, you know,
00:37:53
that that's certainly one one way you could could do it. >> But I'm not using the I mean, I'm
00:38:01
basically making the market. >> You use the market as your foundation basically. All right.
00:38:07
You got your model. Yeah, your model's just getting sounder and sounder. Okay.
00:38:11
Um, Rufus, we'll let you go. Thank you for the time. I do want to say that Rufus is the co-host of a longunning
00:38:18
sports betting podcast. It must be the best established sports betting podcast out there, Bet the Process. Bet the
00:38:23
Process with Jeff Ma. Rufus and Jeff have been doing that for a long time. They, you know, they knocked around for
00:38:29
a couple years and they got real serious about it. It's a pretty serious show.
00:38:32
It's a fantastic show. Strong recommend. Bet the process. You can catch Rufus and
00:38:36
Jeff there most weeks. Rufus Peabody, track him down. Catch him anytime you can. Always entertaining. Rufus, thanks
00:38:43
for the time. Love seeing you. >> Hey, thanks so so much for for putting up with me and and all my digressions on
00:38:49
predition markets. >> We barely got any digressions by Rufus standards. That was a linear
00:38:54
conversation. That was real tight. Thank you, Rufus. That is the first half of Wharton Moneyball. We will have a second
00:39:00
half. Come back and join us after the break. Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton
00:39:06
Moneyball. Welcome to the second half, second part of the show. We ran a little along with our guest, Rufus Peabody.
00:39:13
Longtime friend of the show, my collaborator on Massie Peabody for many years now. Rufus graduated almost 20
00:39:19
years ago. We're coming up on I think this is 18 would be 18. Been in the industry for a long time. Informative
00:39:26
discussion with him about prediction markets in particular. Fellas, Super Bowl 60 got set on Sunday.
00:39:34
Unsurprisingly, the Patriots made it past a quarterback list Denver Broncos in the Blizzard
00:39:41
and they're going to be in their 47th Super Bowl. Did you all know the Patriots have been in 47 out of the 60
00:39:46
Super Bowls? It's really [laughter] high number. >> They are playing, who are they playing
00:39:52
against? The Seahawks. The Seahawks beat the Rams. the a the NFC champion NFC West division championship that produced
00:39:59
the Super Bowl champion here. The Seahawks are favored early lines holding tied at four and a half I think. Um this
00:40:06
game is in San Jose, sometimes referred to as San Francisco. Um Shane, God almighty, I mean what's it like to be
00:40:14
from New England these [laughter] days? No, I mean to I I mean I'm not I'm not
00:40:19
actually from New England, but to have arrived there on the scene in like, you know, 1999, it was very
00:40:25
>> timing timing was good, Shane. >> Timing was good. >> Yeah. No. And uh this this is probably
00:40:31
the most unexpected of all of them. I I I think thus far this run, um I think it's been a I think they're an
00:40:38
intriguing team because I think we could still I don't know what you guys feel,
00:40:42
but you can convince yourself they're not actually even that good. [laughter]
00:40:45
wanted to uh but they're in the Super Bowl so I don't I don't know. Um and I
00:40:51
think that you know if if anything I think if I was setting the line I mean sharper minds than I do set those lines
00:40:56
but I if I was setting the line it would be even even more substantial. I mean just based on how good Seattle looked um
00:41:04
against the 49ers. I think they're really kind I mean the only hope I guess the Patriots have is that time Donald
00:41:09
sees Ghost again or whatever. >> Yeah. >> Well, what other reactions from the
00:41:14
weekend? Um the the the Ram Seahawks game was tight as as as would be expected. Fun could have
00:41:21
gone either way. The Denver New England top game was a lot tighter than a lot of
00:41:25
people would have thought and that snow added wonderful flavor to it. Um Payton forewent that field goal opportunity
00:41:32
early. That sure did feel painful pretty quickly when nobody else could score. Um
00:41:37
any other observations coming out of the championship round? >> How do you guys feel actually about that
00:41:43
decision? Like let's let's assume full information like Sean you're Shawn
00:41:48
Payeyton and you have the weather report. Maybe you don't know it's going
00:41:52
to go quite that dramatically like like like go to unplayable levels but you know the it's going to get worse. I feel
00:42:00
like that maybe kind of I feel like the analytics probably suggest that you shouldn't you should go for you know on
00:42:06
fourth and one you should go for it there. Does you know if you can incorporate that kind of you know future
00:42:13
weather does that move the needle enough? >> Weather was part of it but also just you
00:42:18
know what are you forecasting about your offense's ability and stood them and I
00:42:22
what I I think the most interesting bit is that they had they drove down the first
00:42:27
um drive and possession and then the second they go down again. So they've got they've had the ball twice. They've
00:42:32
moved the ball really well twice and he probably wasn't thinking I'm going to
00:42:36
get 35 more yards for the rest of the game. you know, that's that's the part
00:42:39
that really fell out of sync with the first part of the experience. So, I'm sympathetic to him in that way.
00:42:44
>> Yeah. I mean, the reaction I had at that play wasn't so much I like the way Shane
00:42:48
framed it. If I knew the weather report was going to be bad, I might have changed. But also,
00:42:54
I I'll go look, I'll go to my deathbed by saying I don't understand that play
00:42:59
call. And let me say why I stayed out. >> Oh, really? Oh, wow. Well, maybe you're
00:43:03
going to catch them off guard, but again, you're trusting a crucial point in the game to a quarterback that has
00:43:10
not played in over two years. Why are you throwing the football? >> Oh, the play call. You mean the play
00:43:18
call? I don't going for it. Okay, that makes more sense. >> Not that call. That's what I don't And
00:43:24
that's how Shawn Payton and that's why what I put in the rundown. Did Shawn
00:43:29
Payeyton maybe, and I love the way you said it, Cade, because of the first two series, actually it was the third series
00:43:35
because the first series they were three and out, but the first the second and third series, maybe he saw Stidum doing
00:43:41
so well, he said, you know what, I'm going to trust this guy on this crucial
00:43:45
play to throw the football. And to me, it was the right call to go for it, but not that play. No. And also to me, I've
00:43:54
got, look, I've said this about the previous Seattle Patriots Super Bowl, too. You say something to your team when
00:44:03
you don't think you can run the ball one yard on fourth down. You don't think you can
00:44:10
do cuz if you thought you could, you would do it. And this idea that I'm going to out trick them. It reminded me,
00:44:16
it did. reminded me of Pete Carol having Russell Wilson throw the football when you got beast mode running the goddamn
00:44:24
ball and I think even on the Patriot game, maybe you can correct me, that wasn't even fourth down. That might have
00:44:28
been first or second down. >> I mean, it was it was it was in fact second down though. I will note the
00:44:34
first down was them handing it to beast mode and him not getting into the end zone.
00:44:38
>> I understand that. That's all I'm commenting on where they >> tried to do exactly. It reminded me of
00:44:44
>> You don't have to rehash that history. It just reminded me of the coach trying
00:44:47
to almost be too smart there. I liked going for it. I didn't like the play call.
00:44:51
>> And I and I you you're you're kind of echoing. My general frustration with
00:44:55
fourth down decisions is after the fact we analyze them. And so far so so often we're we're convolving the decision to
00:45:04
go for it or not with like a really suboptimal play call. Like I mean my my bugaboo is always like you know some
00:45:10
kind of fourth and three and they're in shotgun or something like that. fourth
00:45:13
and one and they're in shotgun. You know, the these types of kind of, you know, I wish we could also observe the
00:45:19
be what what happens in the alternate universe where they kind of did the optimal thing at least conditional on
00:45:24
that. >> But let's also let's talk about something Shane said earlier did a
00:45:28
better thing. >> Suppose I told you that let's imagine they had kicked a field goal there,
00:45:33
okay? And let's say they have 10 points. As a matter of fact, let's even imagine
00:45:36
that was all they scored in the first half cuz people are talking about the Patriots defense and it is a good
00:45:41
defense. But let's not make it seem great. Let's just remember >> Jared Stum who hadn't thrown a pass in
00:45:47
over two years. Let's imagine he put up 10 points in the first half against the
00:45:52
Patriots. That's not the 85 Bears performance. That's my point is that like nothing. So right now, if I had to
00:46:02
update any of the >> Patriots didn't score 10 points in that Super Bowl, [laughter]
00:46:06
>> right? Well, no, no, but but also if you had me update any part of like after
00:46:12
watching the two games, if you had me update anything, here would be my update. If I think about the four sides
00:46:18
of the ball, I was disappointed in the Patriot offense. I think the Patriot offense is worse than I thought going
00:46:26
into the game. And I think Seattle's offense is better than I thought going into
00:46:32
>> in I can't disagree generally, but in evaluating your in your evaluation of
00:46:38
the Patriots offense, are you building in that they have faced three of the top five defenses now in their playoff run
00:46:46
in the NFL? because they have the Denver. Denver, Houston, and San Diego all have I mean
00:46:54
San Diego's five, but or sorry, LA Chargers are number five, but like yeah, those are three of the top five defenses
00:47:01
and as well as snow conditions. And again, I'm not I'm I'm playing devil's
00:47:04
advocate because I'm actually on your side on this one. It also I I I also came away underwhelmed with the uh
00:47:11
Patriots offensive performance. But this is kind of, you know, the counterargument that people are making
00:47:15
right now is they have faced some very legitimate, you know, kind of, you know, maybe not 85 Bears level, but strong
00:47:23
defenses in this run and have done barely enough to win and been lucky while they've been doing that. But,
00:47:30
>> you know, this is this is why it's fun. This is why we're going to play the
00:47:32
game. >> I will say Seattle is another great defense. So, it's not like if you get to
00:47:37
be better or anything like that. >> My our friend and colleague Joe Simmons
00:47:41
uh wrote uh over the weekend about comparing the media's reaction to Drake May versus Sam Darnold. And
00:47:50
>> the media versus who >> on on May versus Darnold. And you know, Darnold like anytime something goes
00:47:57
well, you know, it's probably the receiver or the offense or the offense. But with anything goes wrong, it's like
00:48:03
Darnold because he's a flawed guy. And then May is like this darling. And is
00:48:08
their performance really that different? I mean, can we really make these kinds of And do people Here's the thing.
00:48:12
Here's the premise, I guess, is that guys get these reputations early and that they color for years. They color
00:48:19
people's impressions. And I feel like I mean, look, I'm not I don't pay enough
00:48:22
attention to know in detail, and some people pay a lot of attention. >> But I love that Darnell is doing as well
00:48:27
as he is, and I feel like he's just born through bad early experiences in a way
00:48:32
that most don't. But I don't doubt that that negative early experience is still
00:48:36
coloring people's perceptions of him. >> No. And I I mean I think it's amazing.
00:48:40
Such a wonderful career arc for him. Uh I mean if they weren't playing the Patriots, I'd be probably cheering
00:48:45
pretty hard for him honestly in the Super Bowl. But uh but yeah, question Shane, who would you rather have as your
00:48:50
quarterback for the Super Bowl right now, Drake May or Sam Darnold? >> Great question.
00:48:57
>> Great question. >> Drake May. Drake May has never seen >> Sam Darnold can be had. We've seen Sam
00:49:03
Darnold be had. He has not been had in this run. He has not been had this season, but as recently as last season's
00:49:11
playoffs, he can be had. I'm not saying they necessarily will get him, right?
00:49:15
But >> I'm going to take the guy that's won, including the playoffs, I'm going to
00:49:18
take the guy that's won 31 games the last two seasons or whatever the number
00:49:22
is. But the only guy besides Tom Brady, >> you would have taken Kurt Warner going
00:49:26
into that super first Super Bowl, too, right? Come on. >> Yeah, I would have.
00:49:31
>> Oh, for sure. But it's an interesting question. I like this with Eric. I'm
00:49:35
going I'm going Darnold as well, but I realize it's an interesting question and
00:49:39
I am I am worried about, you know, next next level stakes, >> how things how things go for him. Um,
00:49:46
all right. What else do we have around the world of sports? Why don't we give
00:49:50
Eric a little time on the Australian Open? the first major of the eight majors we'll see in golf and tennis. The
00:49:55
first major is being played right now down in Australia. >> Yeah. So, I mean, let's ignore last
00:50:02
night for just one second or the the matches that would happen. Something I put in the rundown. So, in the final
00:50:08
eight here were the men's seeds left. 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 and 25. in the women's 1 2 3
00:50:22
4 5 6 12 and 29. >> Now that's remarkable. >> Yeah. >> The amount of top seeds that are still
00:50:32
in. Now I will say last night um 29 got eliminated badly by one. Sabalanka uh beat um I forget the woman's name. The
00:50:44
American woman that uh I forget her name, but she got dusted off pretty quickly.
00:50:48
>> 29th, >> what' it say? >> She was 29th ranked. >> 29th ranked. Um 12vidilina
00:50:56
destroyed Koko Goff yesterday actually. So 12 is in the semi-finals. Matter of fact, 12 is playing one. Sidilena is
00:51:03
playing Sabalanka in one semi-final on the women's side. on the men's side.
00:51:09
Wow. I mean, Alcarez played brilliantly. I mean, he played the number six in the
00:51:15
world, beat him 75, should have been 63 in the first set. 62 61. And the guy's
00:51:21
Australian, so playing on his home court. um Alex Demenor who had I think he was 15-1 in his last 16 matches and
00:51:32
>> got pedestrianed if you'd like by um by Alcarz. The interesting part will be you
00:51:40
know Jookovic. So here's the here's the question. He got defaulted into the
00:51:44
quarterfinals. So he has only played three matches not four. What does it mean got defaulted into
00:51:50
>> the guy he was going to play in the quarter in the sorry in the round of 16
00:51:53
defaulted before the match. >> He was going to play the number 16 seat who had beaten him the last time they
00:51:58
played by the way Jacob >> Mensik. >> Okay. >> He didn't have to play him. So he's had
00:52:02
four days rest now. >> His first three matches the top ranked player he played was number 85 in the
00:52:08
world. He's played two wild cards in an 85. He beat them all in straight sets.
00:52:13
So, he's in the quarterfinals and he's played nine sets of tennis so far.
00:52:19
>> He's got to be fully rested. >> Now, he's playing the number six or five
00:52:23
in the world, Musetti, who I think he's not. I know he's nine and one against.
00:52:28
Now, here comes the major question. What's going to happen in the next round
00:52:34
potentially when he plays S? That's the magic question. Can he on S side of the
00:52:39
draw, so he'd have to get past center to get to the finals. But this I my question coming into this conversation
00:52:45
was to explain to me center right now. So there was this match sometime this past week where if not for the heat
00:52:51
regulations >> I can tell you a personal story. >> So but so the question though that I
00:52:56
want you to land on is what's your assessment of center's condition right
00:53:00
now and why is it any different than the top level it has been? >> Yeah. So just so you know it was like
00:53:05
105 degrees out. The reason I know that match well is because the person he was playing against is the twin brother of a
00:53:12
guy who was on Zack who's on the pen squash team. >> So Nick Spazeri was number one and two
00:53:18
for about the last five years on pen squash team. His twin brother is Elliot Spazeri who's the one that S plays. So I
00:53:25
was watching the match. >> Um yeah, S would have lost that match if they didn't close the roof and they
00:53:33
didn't have a 10-minute break after the third set. He was cramping severely.
00:53:37
This is something that has happened. The thing now is is that they're now down to
00:53:41
so few players. They're going to be playing all the matches in Rod Labor Arena with a shut roof cuz it's 110°
00:53:48
out. So, it's going to be 70° inside. So, um the no there's nobody on this
00:53:53
planet more upset that they shut that roof in the middle of that match than NovakJokovic because he saw center going
00:53:59
out. Now, his path to the finals is clear. And just to be clear, last year, last year, not five years ago,
00:54:07
>> he beat Alcarez in the Australian Open in the quarterfinals. So he was thinking
00:54:13
he's one inch away from potentially steamrolling into the finals against a guy he beat.
00:54:19
>> Okay. >> On the on on this surface. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> But no, I don't think there's any
00:54:24
lasting uh Center looked great in his last match. >> Um I believe, by the way, Center has a
00:54:31
very intriguing match. It'll be at like 3:00 or 4 in the morning. I'm pretty
00:54:35
sure he's playing Ben Shelton. Now, that's no gimme a match. I mean, that's
00:54:41
a very interesting match. >> Tell us more about Ben Shelton. >> Well, Ben Shelton's been rising up uh
00:54:47
quickly. He was a collegiate squash play uh tennis player. Um he's got about 140
00:54:53
mph serve and so when he wants to, if he gets it in, he'll just blow you off the
00:54:58
court. extremely athletic, great serving volier, allcourt tennis guy. Um, a lot of people believe if there is a third
00:55:06
player that will be joining the big two of SR and Alcarz, it will be uh Ben Shelton.
00:55:12
>> And so, um, do I think he's going to beat S, the two-time defending champion
00:55:17
at the Australian Open? No. Do I think he's going to beat the guy who I don't
00:55:21
think he's lost in maybe 30 consecutive matches on hard courts? No, I do not
00:55:25
think he's going to. But it's not a trivial match. And so look, it's all
00:55:31
it's going to come down to it's it's a fascinating f And by the way, do not
00:55:36
assume that Alcarez is making the finals. Alcarz is playing Zarev in the other semiinal. And by the way, their
00:55:43
career record against each other, six and six. >> So this this idea that it's a feta
00:55:49
comple like bet the house that it's center versus Algarz. I ain't betting
00:55:53
the house on that. that ain't I mean there's no I mean look Al Perez is six and six against Verv so
00:56:01
there's no guarantee he'll be the favorite but not that heavy a favorite
00:56:04
and center still has to get past Ben Shelton and probably Novak Djokovic I'm
00:56:08
not saying he doesn't have a 60 or 70 or 80% chance to beat them both but it's
00:56:14
not for sure it's a fascinating both the men's and the women's side is
00:56:19
extraordinarily exciting this year >> well strong draw everyone's still in a
00:56:24
lot of LA fun last few days here as we roll into the finals on on Sunday. Um why
00:56:30
don't we wrap it there? We just lost Audi and we've run about our full time
00:56:35
now. So we'll wrap it there. We will come back next time of course. Until then, thanks for Audi Winer and Absentia
00:56:43
on behalf of Eric Bradlo and Shane Jensen, Kate Massie. Many thanks to Dion Simpkins who makes the whole thing
00:56:49
happen. Marissa Raina, our producer and booker, very helpful. the big boss lady D Patel. Many thanks to D and to you
00:56:58
guys for listening. Come back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports.