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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to another full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kate Massie hosting this week with my longtime friend, colleague, co-host, collaborator Shane
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Jensen. We too will be here for the whole hour. Our two other co-hosts, Eric Bradlo, Shane Jensen, they're off doing
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Eric and Shane, not Shane, Eric and Audi. Eric and Audi are not here with us. Eric and Audi are off doing Eric and
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Audi things. They will be back. Some combination, as you guys know, some combination of us are here almost every
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week of the year. We're talking 48, 49, sometimes 50 weeks of the year. Coming
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up on 12 years in just two short months from now, good to see you. Good to be back.
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>> How are things going? >> Good, good, good, good. I'm down here in
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um toasty warm. You know, you'd think it was South Florida. It's central Texas.
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You guys have had some proper winter up there in the Northeast. I feel like I've
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been away from the show. I've probably hit, I don't know, two shows in the last
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five weeks or some crazy thing between travel, holidays, teaching, craziness. Glad to be back. Going to slip in here
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to a regular routine. Catching the end of the football season and we'll transition and start paying attention to
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some other sports. You know, we've got the NFL bracket filled out. Tragically,
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as of Sunday night, tragically, the last slot got filled. So be it. It's set.
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These games will start being played. Meanwhile, college slate semiis coming up this week, bizarrely, Thursday,
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Friday night. We'll take we'll pick up that in the second half of the show.
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We've got Stephen Godfrey to come here and talk college football second half of
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the show. Truth is, we couldn't decide what we want to talk about this week.
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There's football, two flavors, peak season, got to cover them both. So, we're going to do college in the second
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half. First half, Seth Walder. Longtime friend of the show, Seth Walder, national football analyst for ESPN. I
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think of him as the gobetween between geeky quants like me and Shane and the rest of the world. He can speak quant,
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he can speak vibes, he translates between the two. He is a vital cog in the ESPN role. He writes there. He shows
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up in the studio productions. He's got some new gigs that we're going to hear
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about a little bit. Seth, always a pleasure. Thanks for making time for us. >> Thanks for having me. You know, you got
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to give yourself more credit. I've I've spoken to you off air. You're a normal
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person. You can talk. You can you can talk, you know, >> on good days. On good days.
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>> The most of us, Kate, though. So, you represent the upper bound on our connection,
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>> right? Well, I'm I'm also probably the lowest lower bound on the stats capabilities on
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this show. So, um I used to be kind of mid-range stats and the world just keeps on, you know, getting fancier, keeps on
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evolving, hanging on with both hands at this point. Um Seth, let's just tackle
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first the bracket. I I feel like Kate was launching into sort of talking about how the college slate was pretty wide
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open. I feel like the NFL seems the most wide open I've at least per personally
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anecdotally experienced at some time. Maybe that's just because Kansas City Chiefs aren't in it, but I don't know if
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you could kind of speak to sort of whether you sort of see it as wide open and like you know what the most kind of
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uh interesting kind of matchups you see are. >> I I do. We do and our numbers show that
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as well. So, it's not just a feeling, but our >> our projections do indicate that. I am
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disappointed because I thought for sure this was going to be the year that we had as the where the Super Bowl favorite
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who we have as the Seahawks would have the lowest chance to win the playoff or win the win the Super Bowl going into
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the year. But I'm pretty sure um you know what I take it back. I take it back because I was looking Yeah. So So I
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think we do have we have the Seahawks at 20% to win the Super Bowl. And I do believe that is the
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highest or lowest. I guess I have to go back. What I'm realizing I've done live on air
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here is that I looked at week eight through week 18 weeks and that that doesn't work the whole time.
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20% is a really low number for a favorite to win the Super Bowl, which is what we have Seattle at. And I do think
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it speaks to this year where it really hasn't been a team, there hasn't been a
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single team that I think has jumped out and been a complete team the whole way. And then you have teams like Seattle and
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Denver who are great teams, but you can imagine their flaws being the the by-week teams. I think if if Los
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Angeles, if the Rams had been the by-week team, we certainly would have seen that number be higher. But
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>> yeah, I think with the Ram the Rams kind of recent like loss of Falcons I think
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kind of threw it all like they they were looking at as more kind of a contention
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sort of number one and I do think it's sort of like I I see the top teams just
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in terms of standings this year and there's a complete mismatch between them
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and sort of our pri I think our prior expectations which part of why there's a
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lot of uncertainty going on right now. Um do you kind of I mean Seattle you already mentioned as one really
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surprising team. Do you kind of feel like they're the sort of most surprising
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team's performance this year or I mean I'm a Pats fan so that I I've been kind
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of floored by what they've done. I mean it's it's it's been I guess predictable
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week to week but certainly not something a ceiling that I did not anticipate coming into this season.
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>> I do think Seattle is the most surprising team. They've been their defense has just been so unbelievable.
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It's hard to win that way. It's hard to week in week out have a defense that is
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that uh effective because we just know the stability on defense is just is just less week to week year to year.
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>> I think for New England at least our met metrics FBI is not as high on the
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Patriots. Uh it's for the obvious reasons train uh has been really has been really weak. And I'll tell you
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what's remarkable, and I didn't even notice this until right this moment, but
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another reason why it's sort of wide open. If you look at the top teams in FBI by pure quality, so just team
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rating, and I'm curious if Massie Peabody has it this way, too. Our f top five teams are all NFC teams. And our
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sixth team is the Ravens, who's not who weren't in the playoff. >> That's crazy.
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>> I mean, the Ravens honestly have made an art of like looking great on paper and
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then, you know, not not somehow like doing it on the grass field, but uh um that is that is interesting.
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>> Tragically, that's that's very college footballes that the best teams aren't in
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the playoffs. >> Little little little Longhorn Baltimore bitterness. Um but we have Buffalo
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Higher. Buffalo and Jacksonville, we have four and five. Um, so yeah, and then Green Bay down at seven. You
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probably got Green Bay higher. San Francisco down around 10 or something. >> Yes. Top five is all three of the West
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teams, I guess, in the NFC plus. >> Well, actually, no, we don't have San
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Francisco. We have San Francisco ninth. Uh, no, we have the Eagles third. >> Um, same.
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>> Uh, and it's really close. When I say, you know, I mean, we're talking a tenth
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of a point between Baltimore and Buffalo. Um, right. So, it's that. But, so, you know, if we're right, um, you
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know, I'll take credit and then if if we're wrong, uh, and Buffalo just blows
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up everybody and wins the Super Bowl, just blame Brian Burke. And, >> well, that that'd be so much fun. I
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mean, as far as I'm concerned, I mean, the uh the uh as open as it is, as the
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as different as the team names are this year, I mean, our numbers, we've had
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Seattle tops for weeks now, and we've got them a good, you know, point and a
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half stronger than LA, who's a point and a half, two and a half points stronger
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than Philly. So, there's a fair bit of separation at the top. I mean, back in
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the Pat's Chiefs heyday, that would be kind of typical separation, but it hasn't felt that way lately.
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I mean, when when we run our sim in the end, Seth, we have Seattle with like 31%
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or something. >> Wow. So, you're much much stronger than us on Seattle. And in fact, I remember
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that you the Massie P body had moved on Seattle earlier, which proved correct, but uh had they were you had them really
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high earlier in the season than than we did. It took us longer to catch up. I'll
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tell you what concerns me about Seattle. that's having worked on that game last
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week. I mean, the way they were Well, let's just say this. Going into that game
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since the Rams the first Rams game, week 11, uh, so that's yeah, week 11 on, Sam
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Darnold's been one of the worst quarterbacks in terms of UBR. And and and sometimes sometimes like I think
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it's very easy to fall into these like splits traps, right? We look at splits
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and we say, "Okay, but that's not an arbitrary end point." That's I think
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when teams started adapting to saying, "Hey, Seattle's run game isn't as
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effective as we thought. We can play more too high coverage. We can play lighter boxes. We don't have to match
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their we don't have to match their heavy personnel with base personnel." And
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Darnold has been worse from that moment forward. And in watching that game against the 49ers,
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for most of that game, it seemed like Seattle was trying to hide Darnold. They had a lot of third downs. They felt
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like, you know, that were sort of making easy throws, screen passes, things that
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where he didn't have to really rip it. Now, in the end, he did. He, you know,
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he made a he made an an absolutely killer play sort of on the move and avoided a sack and that that really won
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them the game. So, it's in there. But, man, a team who seems a little bit skittish about their own quarterback,
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that does worry me as good as their defense has been. >> Yeah. I mean, what happened with
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Minnesota last year would give you the same pause, right? And I I don't actually remember, maybe you guys do,
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kind of what his trajectory looked like going into that to the playoffs last year, but I feel like it
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was perhaps a similar thing where he was I do remember he came out gang busters at the start of last season and
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obviously he again won 14 games or something like that, but then it >> his last game prior to the playoffs was
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a disaster in Minnesota. Yeah, he actually lasted much longer playing better, but then he really fell. But
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then he had a horrible game going into the playoffs and then obviously horrible game in the playoffs.
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>> Seth, can you can you flip to the other side of the ball and give us any
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explanation, any any deeper insight into Seattle's defense? So, Mike McDonald has
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done with that defense, essentially what he did with the Ravens defense over their couple years, taking them to best
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in the league, more or less. I I thought for a moment there that the that the rest of the league, you know, he he was
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right at the it sounded like he was at the cutting edge when he first came on board. Then people start, you know,
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typically catching on. People start, you know, copying and so you don't typically
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maintain that kind of advantage for multiple years. You don't often get an entire second, you know, turn with it,
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but he seems to have gotten that. What What do you think the heart of McDonald's advantage is? He's a head
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coach obviously, but as a defensive guy. So when he was in Baltimore, he really effectively used simulated blitzes and
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and what we mean by that is sort of bringing maybe just bringing four players, but you don't know which four
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it's going to be. So that maybe maybe there's six or seven guys at the line
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and it's not just the four down players who come. It's four com four players and
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then you end up with one-on- ones even if they have six men blocking, but they now you still have seven seven back. And
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I think he still does some of that. And I I'm going to steal some analysis from
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uh some of my co-workers when we were I was working on the on that game where they mentioned two things. One, they
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felt like when he does blitz though, it's it's not just to blitz. It's like
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it is a it's like purely with design and so it's just he felt like more tactical.
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And then the other thing was just that the way that they in the run game felt like Leonard Williams has been so
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effective that they're able to essentially know that if the run goes to Leonard Williams, they have an advantage
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and if you if it goes away from Leonard Williams, you can send players in that direction in advance and and that
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Seattle is able to take advantage of that. Uh and so that's those are non quantity answers. The the sim the sim
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pressure stuff we certainly have seen um or or in the past have se or McDonald have success with. I think those are
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some of the reasons. I also think, and this is not like a great answer here, but I think it's important to like
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recognize that when we talk about schematic advantages in football, I think we have
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a long way to go in terms of quantifying them, which is the way that I understand
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football, and I I think to some some degree you you guys do, but I think that there's a lot more there that doesn't
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show up yet. We'll get there, not yet. You know, I had one conversation with an
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analyst who knew something about McDonald's system a couple years ago, and he he talked about the the
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communication, the internal communication around the schemes and the play calls and how much of advantage he
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had just because he made it easier to remember what the play was being that was being called as a family of other
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plays. And I think once you've simplified communication, you can then in some sense use more elaborate
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communication. you can you can call on more a wider range of plays if you can communicate them more simply. And that
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sounds like a bizarre thing to have an advantage with, but I do think that was something he deployed early on that may
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still probably still does, but gave him an advantage early on. Um, okay. Why don't we shift gears then? You Well,
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before we before we leave the playoffs all together, let's some team you like
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in the AFC or give us something not obvious that we've been talking about the kind of heavy favorites in the NFC.
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What's interesting on the AFC side? >> On the AFC side, I think I I kind of
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think I've been st staring at this all day trying to figure out I got to do some predictions and figure out who's
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underrated. The more I look at it, the more I think Denver might be underrated. And I I say this as a Boon Knicks
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someone who's been a Bon Knick skeptic for a long >> I was about to ask you, convince me on
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Bo Knicks. Well, he's played a lot better honestly, I think, over the last last few weeks.
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And I try not to, you know, hyperfixate on just a few games, but it is true. I do think he I do think he's played
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reasonably well in the second half here. But at the same time, it's like we know
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the recipe for winning without a great quarterback. You have to have great pieces elsewhere. And they really do
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have it. They have an excellent offensive line. They have, we've talked a lot about Seattle's defense, but
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Denver is can be right there as well. And then come back to what I said at the beginning of the show where I feel like
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the AFC is just weaker. They have an easier path than you might otherwise expect for a one se I mean like there's
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a world where they're playing Pittsburgh at home in round two. That's like not
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even a hard world to fathom and like that's all like where that's all they
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have to do to get to the AFC Championship game. >> Okay, hold on. Is there any is there
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anything to the narrative the the the the Steelers narrative that they were selling on Sunday night that Rogers and
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his receivers needed more time that they're beginning to understand each other better. They communicate better.
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They see the same things. They're coordinated better. Medaf will come off a suspension. Hell, they just beat the
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Ravens without Medaf. Is there anything to that story that there's a trajectory
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here at the end for this Steeler? And this is spoken as one of the diehard Steelers haters in the country.
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>> I highly doubt it. I mean, I don't like I don't think that we've seen that
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we have seen moments from Rogers, but I don't think that we're looking at I
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would think we're still looking at an average Shabbo average starter. I think
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that DK Metaf has been important for them, but he's not like a huge part of their offense. Like, I agree with the
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general narrative that they miss him and it gives him, you know, that that hurts.
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It's not like they were throwing down field a ton to Mechaf all season long. I
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think anyone who's had DK Mechaf in fantasy is like wait a second hang on we're talking about this and they're
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going like I think what if Pittsburgh is going to get through I think it's because they throw the ball they throw
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the ball really quickly and that is going to mitigate Houston's edge rushing
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advantage that they that they certainly have and so maybe that's one way where
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they're well suited against I don't think it's like he needs more time to mesh with his receivers I
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Okay. What about Josh Allen just picking up and carrying the Bills? What about the best quarterback left in the
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>> absolutely could happen? I mean, why why not? He's he's like the best remaining
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player. If we're talking about predict one player to be incredible, he's that
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now they like they have they have weaknesses. Could they be receiver? Yeah. I mean, yeah, but sometimes Allen
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can just especially if it's playoffs, he's willing to shoulder as much of the
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load on his legs as as he wants. Yeah, I think could could the Bills make a run 100%.
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>> Okay, so tell us about these these broadcasts that you've been involved
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with so far. You're doing something different for ESPN. >> Yeah, I'm I'm really excited about this.
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So, we have this thing called the Playbook broadcast. It's an alternate broadcast, right? So, we have the the
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main broadcast, sometimes there's a Manning cast, and then we have this playbook broadcast, which we started in
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week 16. The broadcast is is I would I think it's cool. I think it's cool if
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you like football. It's got an all 22 view. So for a lot of people, no matter
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what your interest is otherwise, that is a great view and it's not the full zoomed out like coach's view cam. It's
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22 players on the field but a little closer, which to me is kind of like the ideal view.
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>> Okay, >> we have some we're working with a company called Adrenaline, which is uh
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Shawn Sha Lee is a big player there. Shaun Lee the Cowboys linebacker if you remember. Um, and they're an analytics
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company. They've got real- time data coming in from NFL NextGen Stats. And what they use it for is to predict the
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probability of blitzes, uh, run pass and target probability, and it's dynamically
00:18:49
updating. So, when a linebacker starts to creep forward, you'll see that blitz
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probability pop. I I found that to be really cool, especially if you look sort of just trends over game. We did the San
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Francisco game a few weeks ago, not this last week, but a few weeks ago. And in the first half, everything was
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singledigit blitz probability. They were just, you know, 8 9% blitzing. And I don't know if they blitzed at all in the
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first half. And then suddenly in the second half, you made they it was 40% or 45% or 50% and they they were blitzing
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more. And to me, that was that was cool as someone that >> had to see that. just I I I just need
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the numbers sometimes to highlight this predictive. It was clearly showing a shift in mentality that they had from
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early in the game to later win. So we >> real quickly being being an academic we
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believe in attributions and this is unnecessary but might as well call out s do we want to give Sam Schwarzman credit
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I think of the Amazon alt broadcast maybe two years ago being the kind of real time moment where these blitz
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probability started. >> Yeah. They have the sort of like identif the the >> yeah
00:19:55
that's right it wasn't quantified but it was like this guy's more likely to come
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and it was they were discovering it they were discovering it real time which was
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just ridiculous and great fun. >> So that's been that's been great and
00:20:05
then we we've had a sort of rotating analysts uh and and they've been and
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it's been ex players and then been incredible at breaking out x's nos's.
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we've been more focused on letting them try to sort of tell us about what's happening schematically
00:20:19
over the course of the game. And then the last thing is that either Brian Burke or myself have been on the
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broadcast as decision analysts. So, kind of like the ref analyst when there's a
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>> right. It's it's it is it's like instead of Mike Pereira coming in to say like,
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"Yeah, the ch this challenge is going to be over is going to be upheld." Uh they
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bring on Brian or me to talk about fourth downs, two points, timeouts, any sort of game management or we were
00:20:48
showing a lot more advanced metrics on this broadcast, too, so we can answer questions about that. And it's been it's
00:20:54
been it's really fun. So, I did my first one last week in the Seattle 49ers game
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and I'll be on the broadcast on Monday on uh Texans Steelers. >> Great fun. Great fun. What's an example
00:21:05
of a situation that you were called in to count to talk about? >> So, there were sort of like three
00:21:10
moments that I thought were really or a bunch that were really exciting in the first in the game I did. So, in that
00:21:17
game, Seattle went for it on at the four yard line. They went for it on fourth down. And I think this is kind of old
00:21:26
hat to anyone listening to more money Moneyball, but like we talk about how the advantage here is you're trying to
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score a touchdown, but if you fail, you're putting the other team at the four. And it just, you know, they did
00:21:38
fail and it ended up paying off so so well. And it doesn't always work this way, but then uh the 49ers get a three
00:21:46
three and out and they had to punt and then they committed a penalty on the punt. So the Seattle started with a plus
00:21:51
35 their next drive and we got to come back and say hey see like wasn't so bad
00:21:56
uh going for it. We had a great you know I think kind of a a clear the 49ers made
00:22:01
a clear misstep misstep by not calling timeouts at the end. And then my favorite part was there was this wrinkle
00:22:07
in this game where Seattle if it was a tie Seattle effectively won. It was equally equivalent to a win for
00:22:16
Seattle. Uh it was not perfectly equivalent to a loss for 49ers. So it wasn't even a quite zero sum game which
00:22:21
I also found quite fun. >> So obviously if it had gone to overtime that would have been re really impactful
00:22:29
in terms of >> how you strategy. >> Yeah, for sure. >> But uh there was also wrinkles going
00:22:36
into the into like in the fourth quarter where we were talking about this sort of
00:22:41
down four strategy, right? uh if you're down if you're you're down four, go for
00:22:45
two. For San Francisco, they were driving. This almost happened and I think everyone was in agreement. This
00:22:52
wasn't just me, that they ought to go for two earlier with this was like 12 minutes left in the game because
00:22:59
overtime was a just a much worse proposition for them, right, >> as usual,
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>> right? Can I can I survey you guys for two two seconds real quick? Sure.
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This was a question I asked analytics people in the league going into this. If the Seahawks had had a down eight
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scenario, like a So, the Seahawks have been down eight and there were I don't
00:23:21
know six minutes left in the game. Would they have gone should they have gone for
00:23:27
two knowing that a tie is as good as a win for them? I want to know what your thoughts are and then I'll tell you what
00:23:34
folks in the league said. I mean, I'm always skeptical when the intuitive answer seems so obvious,
00:23:41
right? Because it sure does seem like the answer is yes since the tie is beneficial. Um,
00:23:48
>> such a low probability. I think though the tie is still working it's still
00:23:52
working out as a tie at that point, right? I think I I think so my intuition would be kind of just that the the the
00:23:59
tie would almost be irrelevant to the calculation. You'd still be going for the
00:24:04
>> Yeah. Sorry. Do you agree? You agree? Um, >> yeah, I am persuaded by Shane. Yes,
00:24:10
absolutely. >> Yeah. So, I talked to punks in the league. They were they were mixed. I
00:24:13
said some people who felt like you shouldn't u and then some people who felt like you should. When I did out the
00:24:20
math, I came to the same conclusion that Shane did, which is like it all hinges on how how like given a tie, given
00:24:27
overtime, how likely do you think a tie is, which is not necessarily an answerable question because we also have
00:24:33
this unique state where Seattle is more motivated for a tie than >> Yeah, we haven't we haven't seen a
00:24:39
setting like that, right? We we don't we don't know. It's the team's gonna are
00:24:43
going to play differently. Super interesting. So, >> I if I if we use 20% if we say there's a
00:24:50
20% chance of a tie, which feels like sort of reasonable going in uh going into overtime, I don't think you could
00:24:56
justify I think you still go for two down here. >> Okay. Okay. >> Um but close call.
00:25:01
>> This is fun that they have you guys pulled in. Um it'll be it I need to
00:25:04
watch this. It sounds like it's interesting to watch anyway, but to have you and Brian on the podcast on the
00:25:08
actual broadcast, I mean, come on. This is good fun. Um, listen, Seth, a busy time of year for you. Appreciate you
00:25:15
making time for us. Great to hear from you. Thanks for helping us understand the NFL playoffs better and good luck
00:25:20
with the show. So, we could dial in and watch you on Monday. The text. >> Yes, I'll be on Monday. Brian will be
00:25:25
back for the divisional round. >> Cool. Cool. All right. Have fun. All right. That's Seth Walder, national
00:25:30
analyst for NFL on the ESPN network. We've had him on many times over the years. Always a pleasure, Seth. Take
00:25:37
care. >> Thank you. That's the first half of Wharton Moneyball. We still have a half to go.
00:25:42
Come back and join us after the break. Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to the second half of
00:25:50
this week's show. A full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
00:25:55
network. Kade Massie hosting this week with my buddy Shane Jensen. This is Tuesday afternoon show will go up on
00:26:01
Wednesday just off the line with Seth Walder talking NFL playoffs, new broadcast platforms. Good fun with Seth
00:26:10
always. This was a week where we legit couldn't decide which way to go with our
00:26:15
guest because we've got rich football at both the pro and college levels. So, we
00:26:20
decided we didn't have to decide. We can go both ways. This half of the show,
00:26:23
college football, bringing in Stephen Godfrey, longtime friend of the show, been with us for years now. Always a
00:26:28
delight to get time with Stephen. Stephen writes for Yahoo and the Washington Post. He has his own
00:26:36
production company. Has a podcast with Ryan Annie. Phantom Island podcast covers a wide range of football and even
00:26:43
broader issues. And he is talent appearing three times a week with Andy Staples and Ross Dinger on Yahoo's
00:26:50
College Football Inquirer podcast, which is one of the best ways to dive deep into college football out there.
00:26:56
Stephen, always a pleasure. Thanks for making time. >> How are you guys? I thought of you
00:27:00
recently. I think since the last time I've been on the show, I have an 8-year-old now who is two things.
00:27:06
Obsessed with sports stats and wants to go to Texas. >> Hey, this is our person. Send him our
00:27:13
way. Absolut Is this what you said? >> Yeah. Yeah, him. Yeah. Uh 8-year-old
00:27:17
son. I have my I have three kids, the two the two eldest boys. Um >> Okay.
00:27:22
>> He got into Texas. He still has not visited the state of Texas, but Bejan
00:27:26
Robinson got him in cuz we're all Falcons fans in our house. >> Absolutely.
00:27:30
>> And so he all things bej. But he has taken this pretty far. He has he has
00:27:34
Texas apparel. Uh he got Texas he has like Texas uh like all the burnt orange which doesn't really go with anything or
00:27:42
it goes with everything depending on your mantra. Um >> that's right. >> And he is starting to track stats. He's
00:27:47
starting to I'm teaching him how to chart games. Um, and he's he's got like
00:27:52
a he's like got like a 99 or 100 in math right now in the third grade. So I'm not
00:27:57
sure he's my kid. Um, so because I failed business calculus twice in college. I failed a lot of classes in
00:28:03
college, but calculus especially. So, uh, it's kind of amazing. It's kind, you
00:28:07
know, >> it's important no matter what show you're on to encourage I I encourage my
00:28:13
kids like my wife and I are graduates of Old Miss, but you know, because I work in the media, I maintain an objectivity
00:28:20
and I'm not from Mississippi and we told our kids as they started to take interest in what I do, pick your teams.
00:28:26
So, I've got a Georgia fan and a Texas fan now and and they're front running. I
00:28:32
feel fine with this. like it's probably guaranteed more joy. I gave them Atlanta
00:28:37
sports which is a little bit like having some sort of terminal disease. So like heavy I saw your hat and I thought about
00:28:44
it and I was like, man, yeah, I have so much Texas paraphernalia in my house right now.
00:28:48
>> Well, listen, that makes me kind of proud. You know, maybe Bill Connley has
00:28:53
influenced him early on. Maybe he the podcast ain't played nobody got in there
00:28:57
early on. But look, we we'll we take the kids pretty early. We have summer camps
00:29:01
for them. As soon as he hits like, I don't know, late junior high, he can come up to Philadelphia and do Wharton
00:29:06
Moneyball stuff. We are here for his >> You're not kidding, right? >> Not kidding. No, we have we have high
00:29:12
school kids from all over the world who come for weeks during the summertime to do sports. Great program.
00:29:17
>> Oh my god. He would love that. He would love that. Now, anything sports stats
00:29:20
has been how he got into sports. Yeah. Or how sorry, how he got into math, you know. Well, that's that's that's Audi
00:29:26
Winer, our co-host, is the big driver behind those programs. And his his motivation is not to talk sports with
00:29:32
kids. His motivation is to pull them into stats via something that they're going to engage with.
00:29:37
>> But also, Austin's a good town, Stephen, and so you can bring him around Austin
00:29:40
anytime, and we'll set him up for some UT stuff. >> The plan is Oh, he would love that. The
00:29:46
plan is right now he wants to go to Red River. So, >> even better. I mean, you can't beat
00:29:50
that. I mean, tell me, look, here's you're as legit a person to ask this as
00:29:54
anybody. What is a better sporting environment in North America than Texas? I'm sure they exist, but it's really,
00:30:01
really, really tough to beat Texas. I >> I don't have a full breadth of
00:30:06
experience in sporting events, but I can tell you in terms of American football,
00:30:09
I've pretty much done it all. I've done multiple Super Bowls. I've done multiple
00:30:12
NFL playoff games, that kind of thing. I've been pretty much everywhere in college. And Red River, like it gets a
00:30:17
little semantic when you start ranking the top five, but it is 110% a top five experience because you know what's so
00:30:24
funny? The the decrepitness of the cotton ball works in its favor on television. It's such a forced it's a
00:30:31
forced visual. It's like a it's like a special effect because it's crowded.
00:30:36
>> There's nowhere to go. There's nothing to distract you. You're basically in a
00:30:39
cement sort of like enclave and then they jam it with one color and another color and they split it and on
00:30:46
television it has such a beautiful aesthetic. I had a blast the year that I went. Also, the favorite always loses.
00:30:52
It defies math. >> It's fun that way. I think the neutrality of the the site makes a
00:30:57
probably the the biggest factor there. Um but it's so much fun. One last thing
00:31:01
on on Bjan and Atlanta. I was pulling for Atlanta because I was pulling for the Panthers because of Eric Eager who
00:31:09
is a PFF and number three now with Carolina. So, >> it's a very complicated calculus.
00:31:13
>> It's a very complicated thing. So, because of eager loyalty, I had to pull
00:31:16
for the Falcons. But but but I love excuses to watch them because Bjon is so ridiculous. I mean, it's just just the
00:31:23
average fiveyard run is like a pleasure that you don't get from other >> it has a a sort of indescribable it's
00:31:30
it's hard to quantify, but it has a Bo Jackson like Barry Sanders element to it
00:31:37
in in my as a parent now to remember what it was like to see exceptional talent isolated at the NFL level, right?
00:31:45
because we have such even competition in the NFL. It's very rare and I think
00:31:49
that's what actually makes a star. You know, I think the first couple times Mahomes defied logic, you know, in his
00:31:55
first or second season as a starter and, you know, maybe not so much the Saints game last weekend, but that Monday night
00:32:00
game against the Rams recently where, you know, they were burning off the clock before I think they got the ball
00:32:06
back with like under a minute left and he ripped a 95 yard uh run. It was it was the longest of his career, including
00:32:11
college is what they said on the broadcast. that kind of stuff. That's how kids find
00:32:16
superheroes in athletes and I think that's what's been so cool about this
00:32:20
season. >> Yeah, definitely. >> It reminds me as my childhood Monday
00:32:23
Night long run by a University of Texas running back was Earl Campbell. He ripped about a 80 80 plus yard against
00:32:30
the Dolphins up the sidelines on Monday Night Football as probably a rookie. That's one of the great memories as a I
00:32:37
don't know 11 year old kid. Stephen, you are of the South, I think, in so many ways. And I'd even forgotten
00:32:44
that you were miss alum. And I thought about this particular Final Four. You live in Nashville. You talk about your
00:32:48
Louisiana family all the time. One of the most influential articles you wrote early in your career was the Bagman
00:32:53
article, which I believe was miss. And so had to talk. Old Miss is in the final four. I know
00:32:59
>> they've got this ridiculous ridiculous morass of issues around them between
00:33:04
quarterback eligibility next year between the coach having gone now recruiting players and restricting
00:33:10
coaches. It's just absurd the craziness. H how does it feel? What's the sense
00:33:15
from the miss people about what's going on with that team right now? >> Well, I just don't think Sanity is is
00:33:21
not possible in Mississippi. Okay. Mississippi by nature tells a good story, but they don't necessarily end in
00:33:28
a great place. Um, so it it the irony is not lost on me that they ascend to this
00:33:34
point that they've never really seen in the modern game. They claim three national titles. One of those might be
00:33:40
semi-legit as we all know that the uh the na the title claiming pre what 1970 is dubious at best. You often have six
00:33:49
or seven in one season. >> Oh, absolutely. This is completely uncharted for them.
00:33:54
Obviously, if you follow college football at all, you should be completely shocked to see Old Miss up
00:33:58
there. Um, >> they are on It's house money. It's house money. that
00:34:05
that that's the trope I'm gonna go with here because I think the even the most
00:34:10
passionate Old Miss fan >> knows that >> Georgia had them dead to rights a couple
00:34:15
times in that game and more than likely they shouldn't be here but because of
00:34:20
some astronomical athletic play from their quarterback Trinidad Chamblas and some let's say suspicious decision-m on
00:34:27
the play called on that that next to last drive for Georgia. They left some time on the clock. It allowed Old Miss
00:34:32
to pull off those those big passes and get down in field goal range. Here we are. So, um it's, you know, I said all
00:34:40
that without even mentioning the fact that their head coach is 2 and 0 in his career and those two games are in the
00:34:45
playoff. Uh and there's this giant sort of unstoppable distraction in Baton Rouge in the form of Lane Keifin. The
00:34:53
latest in that saga right now is that it uh it does not seem Look, this is early
00:34:59
in the transfer portal window. I should clarify what I'm saying, but so far Miss
00:35:03
has still continued to land really big names in the transfer portal. Uh LSU has gotten off to a quieter start and so um
00:35:11
I'm not saying there's any buyer remorse yet with Lane Kein at LSU, but um every
00:35:16
day is a new chapter in the saga. Uh I got a text from an official at Old Miss I don't know half hour after the game
00:35:25
ended uh the Sugar Bowl and they I you know we're just kind of talking casually
00:35:30
and the big fear was well today was all about Old Miss and since this whole thing with Lane has
00:35:39
started any like like it's always about Lane and so there was this feeling after
00:35:44
the game what's Lane going to do next and then sure enough now he's calling
00:35:48
assistants back to Baton Rouge and it looks like the running back's coach Kevin Smith won't return to go coach in
00:35:54
the Fiesta Bowl. And you can always kind of count on Lane to pick the pace of the
00:35:58
story up, so to speak. Like, you know, he's like he's like the reality star on
00:36:02
those Bravo shows where they're like, "Hey, can you go pick a fight with
00:36:04
somebody just to make like that's that's Lane's essence, if you will."
00:36:09
>> Okay. >> He's an accelerant. >> Extremely. Yes. Well, game.
00:36:18
That game reminded me of a theory that I've been rooting over for a few years now. I
00:36:23
enjoyed that game more than any Texas game I watched all year. I think I enjoy football games more when Texas is not
00:36:29
involved. I so 100% thoroughly enjoyed. Now, I wanted Miss to win. So, I had a interest of kind some kind, but it
00:36:35
wasn't strong. It was just an enjoyable football. It was a perfect football game
00:36:39
if you for anybody, but especially if you were pulling for Miss. But it's just
00:36:44
easier to watch those games where you don't care. You care, but not that much,
00:36:48
you know? >> Well, I would I wholeheartedly endorse people to go experience sporting events
00:36:52
where they don't have a dog, you know, a dog in the race. I like that's the trick
00:36:56
of sports writing. I have a blast when I'm an objective party. When it's your
00:37:01
team and your emotional investment and your stakes, it's terrible. I don't even like going to see my teams
00:37:07
in games I think they could lose. You know, I I love I love finding that one game on the schedule where you're like,
00:37:13
"This is going to be comfort." Whatever the sport is, just hey, this is going to
00:37:16
be a comfortable margin. It's going to be fine. Like I used to tell parents of
00:37:19
young kids all the time, if you want the experience and you take the photos and all that stuff of, "Hey, we're at the
00:37:24
stadium. We're first dude preseason. Pre-season preseason tickets are easy to get. Kid
00:37:31
wants to leave in the second quarter. Nobody cares because there's some third
00:37:34
stringer out there." Um, no. I comp I'm 100% with you. objective viewing of
00:37:40
great sports. Unless your team wins a championship, it's pretty hard to beat.
00:37:45
>> Yeah. Yeah, that's right. And so unless you unless you're pulling you haven't
00:37:48
been a Pats fan back at Pete Brady or Chiefs fan for the last five years. It's
00:37:53
really tough in football. Okay, one last thing on Miss though, Chamblas, can can
00:37:59
he do that again? Is it possible? You've watched him all year. You've watched him
00:38:03
more than I have. Um, and does he need to to get past >> I think his touchdown interception ratio
00:38:10
right now is 21-3 or 24-3, something like that. He has not been put in a situation where he's made a lot of
00:38:17
decision errors. Just flat out misreading of coverage or forced into bad decisions. He does not tend to make
00:38:27
bad decisions while mobile. and there's a very small list of quarterbacks that
00:38:31
you could say that about at the college level, even the pro level where you run the risk if you're Miami,
00:38:39
is that it presents a very different looking pocket than the teams that you've beaten
00:38:46
so far. Marcel Reed and Texas A&M and then Julian Sean and Ohio State. And I
00:38:53
think it's going to be Look, I I I I like Miami in the game because of the way their defense is playing. However, I
00:39:00
think Charlie Weiss Jr. excels that that's the offensive coordinator at Old Miss in
00:39:05
creating that annoyance. It's it's it's almost like being a defensive co
00:39:09
coordinator in the fact that I think a lot of their schemes and routes are predicated on chaos and they're they're
00:39:16
very sequence reliant and then you could have someone like Chamblas who can freelance if something breaks down. All
00:39:22
this is to say Miami is very athletic, but there's a danger in over pursuit against a quarterback like this. And
00:39:30
some of the stuff that I saw them bottle up Ohio State with some of the stuff that I saw that worked so well in that
00:39:35
really lowscoring&m game, I don't think it's going to apply here. Um, so I think
00:39:40
they've got to find a way. And maybe honestly, maybe it's something more
00:39:44
similar to, you know, when mobile quarterback kind of came back as a concept in the as like Michael Vic for
00:39:51
instance, there was this idea that you could solve it with cover two or Tampa 2 and you
00:39:58
could box, you know, apply pressure, try and get home with four or five and then
00:40:03
really start dropping and start creating problems there. that's anothetical to
00:40:07
the way Miami's played this year, but no one's really made Chamblas get into a
00:40:11
situation with multiple turnovers. Um, and what's funny is on the other side of
00:40:15
the ball, you can say the same thing about Carson Beck has play has had a clean sheet for a while now, which is
00:40:21
was the big knock on him going to Miami and the price tag associated with him. So, um, you know, it's probably cliche
00:40:27
to say this, but I think the game is going to rely on turnovers from the quarterback position specifically. Um
00:40:33
because these are I think in Miami you have so much raw talent and then in Miss I think really they're kind of the most
00:40:39
creative team left in the in the final four. >> Yeah. He just hasn't given some of the
00:40:45
concern that you get like you said decision making on the move. I mean there's plenty of mobile quarterbacks
00:40:50
who you can't quite trust when they start making the decision out there. He hasn't given us that evidence yet. All
00:40:54
right let's let's shift to the other game. Um, and what ought to be and will
00:40:59
be if they win the whole thing, one of the great stories in sports really. I mean, really, it's I think it's it's
00:41:05
hard to oversell what Signetti has done at Indiana. If they get this done, it's
00:41:09
just remarkable. Somehow all the drama at Miss is staying level with Indiana so far.
00:41:15
>> But talk a little bit about Indiana. Can you help us understand how this has
00:41:20
happened in the two-year window? What is sign even where does for as lot many people don't know where signetti came
00:41:26
from but to come as far as quickly as he has and this program the losingest program in the history of college
00:41:32
football to come as far as quickly as I have how do you explain this deep there it's
00:41:42
I often invoke a lot of sort of math vocabulary when I talk casually about this which is I talk about data sets and
00:41:48
I talk about bias sampling I think that we so we're forced into referendum all the time in my industry,
00:41:56
right? We want to know why something's happening, what the blueprint is, how is
00:42:00
this going to change. The reality is this. We have about four and a half years worth of data on the portal. We
00:42:06
have two years of data on a 12 team playoff. Okay, we have a couple years of ninegame conference structure in the Big
00:42:15
10. And then it's really hard to I think it's really hard to create any data from
00:42:19
the selection committee because um I I shouldn't swear on this show but I have
00:42:23
thoughts on the uh on the lack of consistency amongst the selection committee and just how foolish they are.
00:42:29
>> So with all these mitigating factors in mind where we don't have 10 or 15 years
00:42:34
worth of data to look at. I I think what stands out in a short period of time is
00:42:40
that yes a lot of teams are hitting the portal. Okay, we know that and a lot of teams that are hitting the portal
00:42:47
effectively have made it thus far. Like the athletic I think I don't and I don't
00:42:52
know how they built the stat, but they compiled starts at every position by a transfer or by a science scholarship
00:43:00
player out of high school. >> Miss had the highest percentage, Indiana had the second
00:43:04
>> of transfer starts, >> transfer starts in the 2025 season. So any position start where they transfer
00:43:10
where they, you know, native or whatever you want to call them. So miss and Indiana led the pack. Oregon
00:43:16
was close. Um on the this this is just the playoff teams by the way. Um and then on the lower end you had Georgia
00:43:24
and it it it roughly sused out to what you thought, right? So it's the teams
00:43:28
that look like they don't belong here historically. So Texas Tech, Old Miss,
00:43:33
Indiana, Oregon is trends a little bit more towards transfers, although no one really seems surprised by that. And then
00:43:39
your stalwart high school recruiting, Tiffany Brands, Ohio State, Georgia, etc. They skewed lower. So, everybody's
00:43:48
used the portal. And I swear I bet I was on here talking about how Florida State
00:43:52
was doing it well two or three years ago. I probably was. >> Sure. >> But
00:43:57
>> you had good company. >> Yeah. Well, I mean, we were we were all kind of trying this out for the first
00:44:02
time. and we didn't really know what the methodology was, you know, and in the
00:44:06
short amount of time, I keep trying to want to like add context to this or like put a giant asterisk around what I'm
00:44:11
saying. The consistency that Indiana has had has been because they have almost a
00:44:16
professional level, like NFL level of talent on evaluation. So, a lot of the key players and key contributors right
00:44:23
now, standout guys, are James Madison transfers. And that's where, in case y'all don't,
00:44:29
in case people listening don't know, that's where uh Signetti came from is
00:44:33
James Madison. And so what that tells us is we've seen this trend now of coaches coming in,
00:44:39
they'll take nine or 10 guys from their previous job and portal portal them in,
00:44:43
but they usually they either wash out at the higher level or they're just not as
00:44:48
effective. What I'm seeing from Indiana is something that shouldn't make sense,
00:44:53
which is it is a portal-driven development culture. So that sentence should not make sense,
00:44:59
>> right? >> But in a short amount of time, what I'm seeing is just as much consistency from
00:45:06
guys they they transferred in from the smaller schools who were maybe two stars coming out of high school or less or not
00:45:13
ranked at all who developed up and then continue to meet the expectation of playing a full Big 10 slate instead of a
00:45:20
full Sunb Belt slate. while you're also seeing, you know, uh oh my god, my the
00:45:26
name escapes me. He was on the podium at the Rose Bowl, the center, uh that transferred from Notre Dame, right?
00:45:33
>> Okay. >> So, they're keen in their evaluation. They're sharp with it and they don't
00:45:40
miss. So, how do I explain Indiana who's the best team left in this tournament
00:45:44
and I think the odds on national title favorites. Very strange to say versus Florida State from a couple years ago
00:45:50
where they hit on Jared Verse, they hit on Keon Coleman, right? These are NFL players now. And I think I'm talking
00:45:57
about the year 2022 because the next two or three years, they had those same the
00:46:02
methodology was in place, but two things happened. In a state like Florida, you have to you have to underpin everything
00:46:10
with high school recruiting because I'll talk about Miami in a second. And then
00:46:13
you have to continue to sort of hit 21, right? Everybody's hit blackjack if they
00:46:19
sit at the table long enough, but it's not that's not a consistent money-making
00:46:22
method. That's why the casinos are so nice. They took our money and built really nice buildings. And there was
00:46:27
this casino-like logic early on with some of these premier programs that wanted to live topheavy with the portal
00:46:33
without also doing the all of the unsexy stuff and the traditional scouting and high school methodology.
00:46:41
Now, we have a theory on the Yahoo show. Andy Staples and I have talked about this.
00:46:47
If we're right about this, it should start to move Indiana's pendulum a little bit towards high school as well.
00:46:56
that percentage. I think it was like 64% of starts or something like that. Let's
00:47:00
say it's somewhere in the 60s. I think you could see it closer to 45 one day. But if it lived in the 50s,
00:47:07
that that would be the sign of a healthy program. Now, here's what's interesting.
00:47:13
>> It is a lot. But here's what's interesting. Like you grew up on Texas,
00:47:16
right? Florida State has the state of Florida. University of Georgia should never really be they should never really
00:47:24
be flourishing in the portal because they have the state of Georgia at their back
00:47:27
>> where they are. Right. Right. >> Indiana not so much. >> Yeah. Right.
00:47:31
>> Miss under like high high amount of talent but still an underpop populated
00:47:35
state. So I'm curious how long you can sustain with a portal dominant strategy. And
00:47:43
unfortunately the answer is we don't know because we only have about four years worth of real data here. What I
00:47:48
can tell you emphatically and like is that you can go far with a portal team. You can go very far with a portal team
00:47:54
for sure. >> I asked a question that even less status based on just because I've been hearing
00:47:59
with Signetti and and what he's done there and the fact that Moses is probably going to be the number one
00:48:04
pick. >> Yeah. Would the Raiders would there be any intrigue or or or thought that like
00:48:09
well let's keep this very successful kind of combo together. Would they ever consider him for a
00:48:17
coaching position? >> I based again on the assumption that they are taking Mendoza with the number
00:48:22
one pick is >> all indications tell me that Signetti doesn't want to go to the pros that he's
00:48:27
happy where he is. Um I think Signetti is mindful enough that he's found a situation where they're going to build
00:48:34
him a statue regardless. Um, he's now top five compensation, I think, currently. If you could just go
00:48:42
by average annual value, like it's a hockey contract, like AAV, I think with
00:48:46
bonuses and everything else, he's he's in the top five. I don't see him moving off of that
00:48:53
position anytime soon. And if I'm an NFL GM, I would question the recency of it
00:49:00
all. Like, I would need I would want to see more more information. The only person that agents talk to me about as
00:49:07
the sort of uh how would I describe this? The only candidate right now on the co on the
00:49:14
college side that agents have said would be a no-brainer on the NFL side is still
00:49:18
Marcus Freeman. But he has taken his name out of this cycle and I think it'll
00:49:22
be an annual thing from here on out where Freeman will probably have to speak on whether or not he's interested
00:49:28
each cycle as long as they keep winning. So, um, Signetti, I feel like would probably stay in the college game. Um,
00:49:36
and then, you know, I I could see maybe a Dan Lanning one day, but not anytime soon.
00:49:42
>> Don't you wish Bobby Knight was still around so he could go rebel in the old
00:49:45
schoolness of Kurt Signetti at his university? >> I think those two would get along great,
00:49:50
>> wouldn't they, though? So, I I wasn't paying attention when they hired him.
00:49:53
Can do you can you try to somehow get objectively back to that moment and talk about the cons consensus when it
00:50:01
happened? I mean college football coaches I think that's one of the toughest hiring decisions possible. The
00:50:05
different things they have to be good at. It's just absurd. It's it's it's
00:50:09
really tough to get this right. How was that hire evaluated at the time? >> Forgive me for my Pennsylvania
00:50:16
geography. Where is IUP at? IUP. Um, I don't even know. Indiana versus Pennsylvania. Shane, do you have
00:50:25
any idea? I don't know. >> Not in the Philadelphia area. Not Not Not Eastern P.
00:50:31
>> Yes. >> All right. I'm now looking it up because it is Oh, sorry. It's in Indiana,
00:50:36
Pennsylvania. >> I couldn't tell you where that is. >> All right. I'm still Oh, okay.
00:50:41
>> Indiana, I would think. Right. >> We're on the west side. I just I just
00:50:44
found it. We're on the We're We're on the west side. We're We're much closer
00:50:46
to Pittsburgh. Okay. We're in um yeah, that's the middle of nowhere. I know
00:50:52
that. Um because as a sports writer going to Penn State for many years, I I was I've always people have described uh
00:50:58
Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh on one side, Philadelphia on the other, and Arkansas in the middle. Um which is a Southerner.
00:51:04
I can tell that joke. IUP is where he started his head coaching career. >> Okay.
00:51:10
>> He was on the Sabbin, he was on the initial Sabin Alabama staff. Uh I want to say just for one season.
00:51:17
Okay. >> So, it was Yeah, he's Sabin Tree, but I really wouldn't call him that.
00:51:23
>> Yeah. >> Um, he doesn't have a lot in common structurally with with like, you know,
00:51:30
he's daer. He makes, you know, he he sort of stares down media in a similar way. Um,
00:51:37
structurally, he doesn't have a ton in common with Sabin, honestly. So I I I
00:51:40
would be I I I would feel hesitant to call him a saving tree. But in 2011, he starts his head coaching career at IUP,
00:51:47
which is why I asked that. Builds a a winner there, goes to Elon, which is a a CIA team in South Carolina,
00:51:55
and then jumps up and gets the James Madison job as the transition head coach, meaning that James Madison was
00:52:01
going from FCS to FBS. That is an First off, let me say this. Almost every coach I've ever known who
00:52:09
was the sitting head coach of an FCS team when they move up knows that they are a dead man walking. It's incredibly
00:52:16
hard to lead a transition and program. And we can get into it another time. He not only led it, but succeeded more so
00:52:23
at JMU in the two years that they were a Sunbelt member at the FBS level. Of course, in 23 he goes 11 and one. They
00:52:29
start to make kind of noise nationally. James Madison also to Sig's credit and I guess this is very similar to
00:52:38
Sabin he's very mindful of where he jumps and resource he's not he has not
00:52:45
chased helmets in the sense of looking for the just looking for a bigger job because James Madison saved for years
00:52:54
and fundraised for years and almost became too big for the FCS. You ever gone down I 81 in Virginia and seen that
00:53:01
football stadium from the interstate? It doesn't look like you're in the FCS.
00:53:05
>> Okay. >> They were from a facilities fundraising, from an enrollment, from all the things
00:53:09
standpoint, you know, a lot of teams move up to the FBS and kind of mortgage it. They kind of like kind of just like
00:53:15
like lend it out and figure out how to pay for it later. This this was a program that was so ready that they
00:53:22
dominated right away. And Signetti was again talent evaluating and recruiting inside the margins of the DMV zone in
00:53:31
the Carolinas where you're you're not the first pig to that trough if you're
00:53:35
at James Madison, but consistently evaluating at a high level. And so his last three years he's 12 wins and then
00:53:42
eight wins on the transition, 11 wins. >> Absurd. It's absurd transition.
00:53:47
>> Here's the deal though. So you're Indiana and you are historically awful.
00:53:52
Morbent, right? just awful losing at one point the lossiest program in FBS history.
00:53:58
What appealed to Indiana about Signetti was the development culture and the consistency.
00:54:04
>> That's interesting. >> What appealed to Signetti about Indiana
00:54:08
was that he saw it in the room. I know like I'm sure you guys get tired of hearing about like Michael Lewis
00:54:14
references, but it was very much that he >> We're here for we're here for the
00:54:18
Michael Lewis reference. >> Okay. He saw the market. He's I mean it is a little bit like the
00:54:24
first act of the big short where he saw where the market was going and you know that the big short's not a great comp
00:54:30
because that's more about betting against the market. He didn't bet against the market. He actually he
00:54:34
actually got to the market so much faster than some of the Big 10 and SEC peers that he's now beating. That's a
00:54:42
huge component of it. But there was an immediate >> saying what you're saying is the market
00:54:46
is the portal the new world that we're living in. >> But also the ability to pay for it.
00:54:50
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> So, there's this beautiful moment that happens where someone has correctly
00:54:55
identified a coming trend and then they go and they find the they find the the right partnered
00:55:01
undervalued asset that's going to be differently valued if it's >> Yeah.
00:55:06
>> And what's and what's historically known about IU? Okay. Bad football. They have
00:55:10
a great business school and they're chaka block with alumni looking to spend
00:55:14
money. All right. >> Why is that? That part I didn't know. That's and I've heard that they're big
00:55:18
spenders in the NIO world. But I wouldn't have known that even with the good business school. I wouldn't have kn
00:55:22
I think first honestly basketball then I think music in business school probably
00:55:26
third. >> My my co-host on Yahoo Ross Dinger he's reported this out before but basically
00:55:31
the estimation of TV and TV's God to college is that basketball is worth something like 10 or 15% of your TV
00:55:39
value. And so to go back to that that moment that great moment of kismet when signetti meet met Indiana's leadership
00:55:47
had become increasingly aware of we're never going to be done with realignment
00:55:50
we're going to find a super league one day and Indiana right now is a historic
00:55:56
basketball power emphasis on the historic right what else did they offer and what where else is there is there
00:56:04
value in the current market so there was this flood of emphasis to go into football
00:56:10
from the university, from the donors who wrote the checks, from the athletic department, and then from a coach who
00:56:16
said, "Hey, not only, keep in mind, guys, there were a lot of coaches that were protesting this concept." Dabau
00:56:22
Sweeney, remember that? >> Yeah. >> How's Dabo doing? >> So, there were a lot of coaches that
00:56:27
said, "I don't want any part of this." And what he said was, "If you can fund
00:56:32
this at the highest level, I can work this system." Then they had the beautiful benefit of being a Trojan
00:56:39
horse last year. And so that kind of takes us now to the season. You know, we talked about this
00:56:45
on the show the other day. I don't think anybody took this team seriously until they
00:56:52
probably until they beat Oregon the first time this year. Even last year, the way the the way in which they lost
00:56:57
to a really hot, really talented Notre Dame team, everyone thought, >> "Yep,
00:57:03
>> BS light schedule. Big 10 doesn't know what it's doing. They barfed up this
00:57:08
undefeated team because they don't have enough quality middle class programs.
00:57:13
There's one thing I'd actually like to talk to you guys about. And I don't know how you figure out how
00:57:18
to do this with a number, but I would love to because Indiana is representing a change here, but I think the Big 10 is
00:57:24
on the cusp of changing this entire overall narrative. And I think and I mean I'm changing the subject here a
00:57:32
little bit, but I think Indiana if if Indiana's hoisting the national championship in two weeks, we're going
00:57:38
to reverse engineer this season. And I think what we're going to see is we have
00:57:43
terminally in our bias as a southern driven sport for 20 years given the benefit of the
00:57:50
doubt to programs who no longer deserve it. And we're going to have to like admit this publicly and then work it
00:57:55
back. And that's going to be really hard for some people in the media. So, what
00:57:58
I'm talking about is the total dismantling of Alabama. All right. When selection
00:58:05
>> That's a moment. That's a moment. >> When Selection Sunday came around,
00:58:09
every pundant, even my guy, even my co-hosts who know a ton about the sport, and I just said, why? And I'm not trying
00:58:15
to make myself out like I knew, but I just said, why do we have to we h we have to assume that the two teams that
00:58:21
make the SEC championship must be included in the 12 team format. And everyone said, well, you can't punish
00:58:26
them for going to Atlanta and losing. And I said, "Well, what if they suck?
00:58:29
What if this is just another opportunity to show that their resume is weak?" And
00:58:34
so Alabama gets the benefit of the doubt. They go in, they kind of squeak past an Oklahoma team that didn't look
00:58:38
that great either. And then Indiana shows that they are a full world away from actual title contender. And what's
00:58:46
interesting to me now is to look at this Final Four game and to look at the team
00:58:50
that brought both of these two schools to their knees, which was Iowa. And that Iowa team was probably one win away.
00:58:58
Now, they didn't get it. They didn't beat USC, but had that Iowa team been a
00:59:02
true nine- win contender going into selection Sunday, I don't think that they could have beaten out an Alabama.
00:59:08
We already know that Alabama beat out a Notre Dame team that they're not as good
00:59:12
as. This SEC bias thing, and I'm talking to you from inside the Death Star, okay?
00:59:19
uh this this SEC bias thing. I think some serious work needs to be done analytically in the in the numbers world
00:59:27
in the in the world of the quantitives to somehow sus out and explain why I think it's baked into the preseason
00:59:34
rankings. I think television plays a role in this and I think by the time we start with the selection committee in
00:59:40
early November, we've already kind of kind of calcified our perception of some
00:59:45
of these schools. And I think it's incorrect. And I like I think Illinois hurts for this. I think Iowa hurts for
00:59:51
this. I think the Big 10 hurts. >> I I said it's a it's a worthy topic and
00:59:57
and and we should take it up. We should take it up sometime over the next 12 months. Um I I push back on one
01:00:06
particular dimension and that is the depth of the SEC versus the depth of the Big 10. And so whenever you start
01:00:12
bringing Illinois into the conversation, I start >> start wanting to jump in because
01:00:18
>> what's true is that the numbers this year, Stephen, and this is actually
01:00:21
something you you were talking a minute ago about how people weren't buying Indiana until they beat Oregon this year
01:00:27
because of the experience last year, the numbers were saying Indiana. And I was having the hardest time believing like
01:00:33
Indiana was at the top from like mid-season on. It's like the number one team in college Indiana. And I was like,
01:00:39
really, really, really? It's like that's it was one of these places where
01:00:43
analytics, one of the good analytics show you things a few weeks before the rest of the world sees them. And power
01:00:50
rankings were showing this. But let me just finish real quickly. Indiana and Ohio State have been top above the top
01:00:57
of the SEC all season long, more or less, but then like the next eight teams are SEC teams and just the variance on
01:01:04
the Big 10 is so much broader. And that means that making it through that nineame schedule, it's only been eight
01:01:09
game, but it's about to be nine game in the SEC is going to be a loss generating
01:01:14
proposition. And so I'm sympathetic. >> Oh, I like that terminology. >> I'm I'm an insider now being a long run
01:01:20
person, but like I I I'm going to be sympathetic to the to the three loss SEC
01:01:25
teams because of the rigor of the schedule that they >> Well, I I think it's it's a couple
01:01:28
things. One, I just want to I was going to mention this. Anytime Connelly when he's putting the numbers together and it
01:01:35
spits him back out and he's getting these weird when he's getting these results that the public won't accept
01:01:39
yet. I always love it when Connor and I talking to him about it because you just
01:01:42
get this exhausted sigh because he knows, you know, people still think quantitative that they think that like
01:01:49
Bill sat up and made this. >> Yeah. >> You know, like he's like, I you know
01:01:52
what, I'm putting Indiana number one this week. screw every and he'll have
01:01:56
those weeks where he gets the numbers back and he's just like, "Oh god,
01:01:59
>> I got to explain these numbers to the world." >> Um, which is why he's kind of started
01:02:03
othering the ranking and like sort of turning the ranking sentient and just saying like the I don't agree with the
01:02:09
rank, but this is what SP told me this week. Um, I had a really interesting conversation for an offseason piece I
01:02:14
was doing a year ago with a recruiting analyst named Steve uh Wilfong. He works for Onree. He's been doing it for a
01:02:20
really long time. And I think uh recruiting analyst is a dubious term. You know, it's got a kind of like a
01:02:26
Vegas sheen about it. And I don't mean, you know, like it's just um >> it's really just a sports writing beat
01:02:34
at this point, right? I mean, more >> No kidding. No kidding. Gosh. But I digress. Uh but but Steve is a really
01:02:40
wellrespected guy. He's been doing it for a long time. And one of the sort of
01:02:43
big futures bets in college football is that the Illinois, Ias, etc., and Indiana, which is just sort of way above
01:02:49
schedule, way past schedule, ahead of schedule is what I should say. Um, are going to establish a more respectable
01:02:57
Big 10 middle class. And so to see the Alabama results and to see some of the things that like,
01:03:06
you know, to see last year's data set where it just felt like the SEC was going to lose their
01:03:12
mind because SMU got in, but then South Carolina loses a bowl and Alabama loses a bowl. And I know everybody says, well,
01:03:18
it's because of the optouts or whatever. We are we are continuing to see an SEC
01:03:22
product that yes has the robust middle and week after week it's like the uh Bruce Feldman body blow theory right is
01:03:31
like you know if you play that week after week after week you're going to start to sort of wear down or you know
01:03:35
the cream rises but I don't know if they're ever like I I I don't know what's exceptional
01:03:41
anymore in the SEC because I'm going to tell you this as an alumni of the one
01:03:45
team left is that the best team in the SEC See >> right >> like >> right well I mean when Chand when he
01:03:54
plays like he did last weekend I mean >> quite possibly >> Texas is going to be a great case study
01:03:59
next year specifically it's funny to go back to my 8-year-old the worst thing is
01:04:04
he's really math strong he's a Texas fan so he's incredibly literal and so it
01:04:09
does not make sense to him everything is black and white and he goes wait Texas has a ton of money you told me that I
01:04:14
was like oh yeah Texas yeah but Texas got a lot of alumni they spend a lot of money he goes Well, then they should be
01:04:19
in the playoffs. And I go, "Hey, man." I said, "Welcome to the quandry that is
01:04:22
Texas athletic sometimes." I was like, it it doesn't always sus out that way
01:04:26
or&m would have 10 national titles. Texas is going to be a fascinating case study next year because we can now start
01:04:32
to build a referendum on, all right, I know why the TV revenue side of this made sense for y'all in Austin. I get
01:04:38
that, right? You're going to make a ton of money on TV, but think about all those years Oklahoma kind of got to like
01:04:45
moonwalk into the 14 playoffs. 100% 100%. >> So, is this going to be a sustainable
01:04:51
product if you jam these conferences filled with contenders and they eat each other alive?
01:04:55
>> God knows it's going to I mean, we can argue this all night and then they're
01:04:58
going to change it again in a couple of years. But what's what's true is that
01:05:02
they felt like it was a necessary move because SEC was truly separating from the rest of the world and you were
01:05:08
losing talent. If you look at what Texas A&M's recruiting rankings did in like
01:05:13
the 10 years before they joined the SEC and then the 10 years after, it's just
01:05:17
extraordinary. And Texas was at a disadvantage because players wanted to play in the SEC. But that was before NIL
01:05:23
and Portal. And now it's really just leveled the playing field. people are willing to go to love or um
01:05:30
>> I would love to combine >> like to to write a p to write a some like a dissertation or something on this
01:05:35
that's half analytical and half social science because I think that Katrina in
01:05:41
Texas >> backdoored an SEC expansion in the most miserable of human experiences obviously
01:05:48
but the volume of relocation and the anecdotal evidence I have of the 10 years after Katrina
01:05:54
>> of kids families that were from Louisiana and the Gulf Coast who migrated into Texas and then it allowed
01:06:02
those brands to go into Texas and recruit with a little bit more familiarity. It almost made it mandatory
01:06:08
like you're saying when the decision came for the Red River Schools that the
01:06:12
world was moving east. It's very fascinating to me. Now financially you can't argue it but you know by the way
01:06:19
as I say this and maybe the next time I'm on the show this will be settled. I
01:06:23
think according to Ross it will be this playoff will expand. The next time we play this playoff there will be at least
01:06:29
14 teams. And if I'm betting right now, I'm saying that it's probably going to
01:06:33
be 16. >> I don't love that either. >> Yeah, that's a that's a that's another
01:06:40
whole frontier here that's moving. Um all right, let's save it for the next
01:06:44
time, Steve. Yes, sir. >> Um greatly appreciate you. >> Got it. Got the deep dive we're hoping
01:06:50
for on college football and come away. thinking about it a little bit differently. Greatly appreciate it. I
01:06:55
hope for I have to tell you the two stories we've talked about. I mean, Miss
01:06:58
and Indiana, it will be glorious if that's the matchup because as far as I'm
01:07:02
concerned, like there's just either one of them is one of the most remarkable
01:07:05
stories in decades. And so, we'll see. We'll probably end up with Miami or so
01:07:11
depressing. >> I I would love for people to embrace parody. Like I I was at the FCS national
01:07:17
title game last night here in Nashville, Montana State, Illinois State. It was an
01:07:20
amazing game. There was no North Dakota State. There was no 62 to nothing win like we've seen for the last 15 years at
01:07:26
that level. >> Okay. >> The portal has created so much parody at every level of the sport that I think
01:07:30
parody is like the NFL tells us, right? We we what what do we >> right? >> We like parody. We like it. So, I'm
01:07:37
hoping college football learns to embrace it. >> I I I I think they will. I think this is
01:07:42
this this final four alone is a great case for it. All right, guys. You can catch Stephen Godfrey many places. Um he
01:07:49
is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the Washington Post. You can catch his production company's podcast, Phantom
01:07:56
Island. You can catch him on the College Football Inquirer podcast with Staples and Dinger. One of the great writers on
01:08:02
college football. Thanks for the time, Stephen. Always good to visit with you. >> Thank you guys so much.
01:08:06
>> Absolutely. Take care for the whole team here. We've lost Shane Jensen there at
01:08:11
the very end for Eric Bradlo and Audi Winer and Absentia for Dion Simpkins making this thing happen. Marissa,
01:08:17
Raina, D Patel, the whole team. And for you guys, the listeners, thanks for being here. Come back and join us next
01:08:22
time. Between now and then, enjoy your sports.