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Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power

January 12, 2026 / 01:08:34

This episode of Wharton Moneyball features discussions on NFL playoffs, college football, and new broadcasting formats. Guests include Seth Walder, national football analyst for ESPN, and Stephen Godfrey, sports writer for Yahoo and the Washington Post.

In the first half, Seth Walder shares insights on the NFL playoffs, highlighting the unpredictability of the season and discussing the Seattle Seahawks' surprising performance. He notes the lack of a clear Super Bowl favorite and emphasizes the importance of quarterback performance in playoff success.

In the second half, Stephen Godfrey discusses the college football landscape, focusing on the rise of Indiana and Ole Miss. He explains how Indiana's success is tied to effective use of the transfer portal and the challenges faced by teams in the SEC.

Both guests provide analysis on the dynamics of college football and the impact of analytics on team performance. The episode concludes with reflections on the evolving nature of sports broadcasting and the significance of statistical analysis in understanding game strategies.

Listeners gain valuable perspectives on the current state of both NFL and college football, along with insights into the future of sports analytics.

TL;DR

Seth Walder and Stephen Godfrey discuss NFL playoffs, college football dynamics, and the impact of analytics on team performance.

Episode

1:08:34

00:00:00

Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball.

00:00:03

Welcome to another full hour of sports

00:00:05

analytics here on the Wharton podcast

00:00:08

network. This is Kate Massie hosting

00:00:10

this week with my longtime friend,

00:00:12

colleague, co-host, collaborator Shane

00:00:15

Jensen. We too will be here for the

00:00:18

whole hour. Our two other co-hosts, Eric

00:00:20

Bradlo, Shane Jensen, they're off doing

00:00:21

Eric and Shane, not Shane, Eric and

00:00:24

Audi. Eric and Audi are not here with

00:00:26

us. Eric and Audi are off doing Eric and

00:00:27

Audi things. They will be back. Some

00:00:29

combination, as you guys know, some

00:00:31

combination of us are here almost every

00:00:33

week of the year. We're talking 48, 49,

00:00:35

sometimes 50 weeks of the year. Coming

00:00:37

up on 12 years in just two short months

00:00:41

from now,

00:00:43

good to see you. Good to be back.

00:00:46

>> How are things going?

00:00:48

>> Good, good, good, good. I'm down here in

00:00:50

um toasty warm. You know, you'd think it

00:00:52

was South Florida. It's central Texas.

00:00:55

You guys have had some proper winter up

00:00:56

there in the Northeast. I feel like I've

00:00:58

been away from the show. I've probably

00:00:59

hit, I don't know, two shows in the last

00:01:02

five weeks or some crazy thing between

00:01:04

travel, holidays, teaching, craziness.

00:01:07

Glad to be back. Going to slip in here

00:01:09

to a regular routine. Catching the end

00:01:11

of the football season and we'll

00:01:13

transition and start paying attention to

00:01:15

some other sports. You know, we've got

00:01:18

the NFL bracket filled out. Tragically,

00:01:21

as of Sunday night, tragically, the last

00:01:23

slot got filled. So be it. It's set.

00:01:27

These games will start being played.

00:01:28

Meanwhile, college slate semiis coming

00:01:32

up this week, bizarrely, Thursday,

00:01:34

Friday night. We'll take we'll pick up

00:01:35

that in the second half of the show.

00:01:36

We've got Stephen Godfrey to come here

00:01:37

and talk college football second half of

00:01:39

the show. Truth is, we couldn't decide

00:01:42

what we want to talk about this week.

00:01:43

There's football, two flavors, peak

00:01:47

season, got to cover them both. So,

00:01:49

we're going to do college in the second

00:01:50

half. First half, Seth Walder. Longtime

00:01:53

friend of the show, Seth Walder,

00:01:55

national football analyst for ESPN. I

00:01:58

think of him as the gobetween between

00:02:01

geeky quants like me and Shane and the

00:02:04

rest of the world. He can speak quant,

00:02:07

he can speak vibes, he translates

00:02:10

between the two. He is a vital cog in

00:02:15

the ESPN role. He writes there. He shows

00:02:18

up in the studio productions. He's got

00:02:20

some new gigs that we're going to hear

00:02:22

about a little bit. Seth, always a

00:02:24

pleasure. Thanks for making time for us.

00:02:25

>> Thanks for having me. You know, you got

00:02:27

to give yourself more credit. I've I've

00:02:28

spoken to you off air. You're a normal

00:02:31

person. You can talk. You can you can

00:02:32

talk, you know,

00:02:34

>> on good days. On good days.

00:02:36

>> The most of us, Kate, though. So, you

00:02:38

represent the upper bound on our

00:02:40

connection,

00:02:40

>> right?

00:02:43

Well, I'm I'm also probably the lowest

00:02:45

lower bound on the stats capabilities on

00:02:48

this show. So, um I used to be kind of

00:02:51

mid-range stats and the world just keeps

00:02:53

on, you know, getting fancier, keeps on

00:02:55

evolving, hanging on with both hands at

00:02:57

this point. Um Seth, let's just tackle

00:03:01

first the bracket. I I feel like Kate

00:03:04

was launching into sort of talking about

00:03:05

how the college slate was pretty wide

00:03:07

open. I feel like the NFL seems the most

00:03:10

wide open I've at least per personally

00:03:12

anecdotally experienced at some time.

00:03:14

Maybe that's just because Kansas City

00:03:15

Chiefs aren't in it, but I don't know if

00:03:17

you could kind of speak to sort of

00:03:18

whether you sort of see it as wide open

00:03:20

and like you know what the most kind of

00:03:23

uh interesting kind of matchups you see

00:03:25

are.

00:03:25

>> I I do. We do and our numbers show that

00:03:28

as well. So, it's not just a feeling,

00:03:30

but our

00:03:31

>> our projections do indicate that. I am

00:03:34

disappointed because I thought for sure

00:03:36

this was going to be the year that we

00:03:38

had as the where the Super Bowl favorite

00:03:41

who we have as the Seahawks would have

00:03:42

the lowest chance to win the playoff or

00:03:46

win the win the Super Bowl going into

00:03:48

the year. But I'm pretty sure

00:03:50

um

00:03:52

you know what I take it back. I take it

00:03:53

back because I was looking Yeah. So So I

00:03:58

think we do have we have the Seahawks at

00:04:00

20% to win the Super Bowl.

00:04:03

And I do believe that is the

00:04:07

highest

00:04:08

or lowest. I guess I have to go back.

00:04:10

What I'm realizing I've done live on air

00:04:13

here is that I looked at week eight

00:04:14

through week 18 weeks and that that

00:04:17

doesn't work the whole time.

00:04:19

20% is a really low number for a

00:04:22

favorite to win the Super Bowl, which is

00:04:23

what we have Seattle at. And I do think

00:04:25

it speaks to this year where it really

00:04:27

hasn't been a team, there hasn't been a

00:04:29

single team that I think has jumped out

00:04:30

and been a complete team the whole way.

00:04:33

And then you have teams like Seattle and

00:04:36

Denver who are great teams, but you can

00:04:37

imagine their flaws being the the

00:04:39

by-week teams. I think if if Los

00:04:42

Angeles, if the Rams had been the

00:04:43

by-week team, we certainly would have

00:04:45

seen that number be higher. But

00:04:47

>> yeah, I think with the Ram the Rams kind

00:04:49

of recent like loss of Falcons I think

00:04:50

kind of threw it all like they they were

00:04:52

looking at as more kind of a contention

00:04:54

sort of number one and I do think it's

00:04:56

sort of like I I see the top teams just

00:04:59

in terms of standings this year and

00:05:01

there's a complete mismatch between them

00:05:02

and sort of our pri I think our prior

00:05:04

expectations which part of why there's a

00:05:08

lot of uncertainty going on right now.

00:05:10

Um do you kind of I mean Seattle you

00:05:13

already mentioned as one really

00:05:14

surprising team. Do you kind of feel

00:05:16

like they're the sort of most surprising

00:05:18

team's performance this year or I mean

00:05:21

I'm a Pats fan so that I I've been kind

00:05:23

of floored by what they've done. I mean

00:05:25

it's it's it's been I guess predictable

00:05:27

week to week but certainly not something

00:05:28

a ceiling that I did not anticipate

00:05:30

coming into this season.

00:05:31

>> I do think Seattle is the most

00:05:33

surprising team. They've been their

00:05:34

defense has just been so unbelievable.

00:05:36

It's hard to win that way. It's hard to

00:05:38

week in week out have a defense that is

00:05:39

that uh effective because we just know

00:05:42

the stability on defense is just is just

00:05:44

less week to week year to year.

00:05:46

>> I think for New England at least our met

00:05:50

metrics FBI is not as high on the

00:05:52

Patriots. Uh it's for the obvious

00:05:55

reasons train uh has been really has

00:05:58

been really weak. And I'll tell you

00:06:00

what's remarkable, and I didn't even

00:06:02

notice this until right this moment, but

00:06:05

another reason why it's sort of wide

00:06:07

open. If you look at the top teams in

00:06:12

FBI by pure quality, so just team

00:06:15

rating, and I'm curious if Massie

00:06:18

Peabody has it this way, too. Our f top

00:06:21

five teams are all NFC teams. And our

00:06:24

sixth team is the Ravens, who's not who

00:06:26

weren't in the playoff.

00:06:29

>> That's crazy.

00:06:31

>> I mean, the Ravens honestly have made an

00:06:33

art of like looking great on paper and

00:06:35

then, you know, not not somehow like

00:06:37

doing it on the grass field, but uh um

00:06:40

that is that is interesting.

00:06:41

>> Tragically, that's that's very college

00:06:43

footballes that the best teams aren't in

00:06:45

the playoffs.

00:06:47

>> Little little little Longhorn Baltimore

00:06:49

bitterness. Um but we have Buffalo

00:06:52

Higher. Buffalo and Jacksonville, we

00:06:54

have four and five. Um, so yeah, and

00:06:56

then Green Bay down at seven. You

00:06:58

probably got Green Bay higher. San

00:07:00

Francisco down around 10 or something.

00:07:02

>> Yes. Top five is all three of the West

00:07:05

teams, I guess, in the NFC plus.

00:07:09

>> Well, actually, no, we don't have San

00:07:11

Francisco. We have San Francisco ninth.

00:07:13

Uh, no, we have the Eagles third.

00:07:15

>> Um, same.

00:07:16

>> Uh, and it's really close. When I say,

00:07:19

you know, I mean, we're talking a tenth

00:07:20

of a point between Baltimore and

00:07:22

Buffalo. Um, right. So, it's that. But,

00:07:25

so, you know, if we're right, um, you

00:07:27

know, I'll take credit and then if if

00:07:29

we're wrong, uh, and Buffalo just blows

00:07:32

up everybody and wins the Super Bowl,

00:07:33

just blame Brian Burke. And,

00:07:36

>> well, that that'd be so much fun. I

00:07:37

mean, as far as I'm concerned, I mean,

00:07:39

the uh the uh as open as it is, as the

00:07:43

as different as the team names are this

00:07:46

year, I mean, our numbers, we've had

00:07:48

Seattle tops for weeks now, and we've

00:07:50

got them a good, you know, point and a

00:07:52

half stronger than LA, who's a point and

00:07:54

a half, two and a half points stronger

00:07:56

than Philly. So, there's a fair bit of

00:07:58

separation at the top. I mean, back in

00:08:00

the Pat's Chiefs heyday, that would be

00:08:03

kind of typical separation, but it

00:08:05

hasn't felt that way lately.

00:08:07

I mean, when when we run our sim in the

00:08:09

end, Seth, we have Seattle with like 31%

00:08:12

or something.

00:08:13

>> Wow. So, you're much much stronger than

00:08:15

us on Seattle. And in fact, I remember

00:08:18

that you the Massie P body had moved on

00:08:21

Seattle earlier, which proved correct,

00:08:24

but uh had they were you had them really

00:08:27

high earlier in the season than than we

00:08:29

did. It took us longer to catch up. I'll

00:08:31

tell you what concerns me about Seattle.

00:08:33

that's having worked on that game last

00:08:35

week.

00:08:37

I mean, the way they were Well, let's

00:08:39

just say this. Going into that game

00:08:41

since the Rams the first Rams game, week

00:08:44

11,

00:08:45

uh, so that's yeah, week 11 on, Sam

00:08:49

Darnold's been one of the worst

00:08:50

quarterbacks in terms of UBR. And and

00:08:54

and sometimes sometimes like I think

00:08:57

it's very easy to fall into these like

00:08:59

splits traps, right? We look at splits

00:09:01

and we say, "Okay, but that's not an

00:09:04

arbitrary end point." That's I think

00:09:06

when teams started adapting to saying,

00:09:09

"Hey, Seattle's run game isn't as

00:09:10

effective as we thought. We can play

00:09:12

more too high coverage. We can play

00:09:14

lighter boxes. We don't have to match

00:09:16

their we don't have to match their heavy

00:09:17

personnel with base personnel." And

00:09:20

Darnold has been worse from that moment

00:09:23

forward. And in watching that game

00:09:26

against the 49ers,

00:09:28

for most of that game, it seemed like

00:09:31

Seattle was trying to hide Darnold. They

00:09:33

had a lot of third downs. They felt

00:09:34

like, you know, that were sort of making

00:09:36

easy throws, screen passes, things that

00:09:39

where he didn't have to really rip it.

00:09:42

Now, in the end, he did. He, you know,

00:09:43

he made a he made an an absolutely

00:09:45

killer play sort of on the move and

00:09:48

avoided a sack and that that really won

00:09:50

them the game. So, it's in there. But,

00:09:53

man, a team who seems a little bit

00:09:57

skittish about their own quarterback,

00:09:59

that does worry me as good as their

00:10:01

defense has been.

00:10:02

>> Yeah. I mean, what happened with

00:10:03

Minnesota last year would give you the

00:10:06

same pause, right? And I I don't

00:10:07

actually remember, maybe you guys do,

00:10:09

kind of what his trajectory

00:10:11

looked like going into that to the

00:10:13

playoffs last year, but I feel like it

00:10:15

was perhaps a similar thing where he was

00:10:18

I do remember he came out gang busters

00:10:20

at the start of last season and

00:10:21

obviously he again won 14 games or

00:10:23

something like that, but then it

00:10:26

>> his last game prior to the playoffs was

00:10:28

a disaster in Minnesota. Yeah, he

00:10:31

actually lasted much longer playing

00:10:33

better, but then he really fell. But

00:10:36

then he had a horrible game going into

00:10:38

the playoffs and then obviously horrible

00:10:40

game in the playoffs.

00:10:41

>> Seth, can you can you flip to the other

00:10:43

side of the ball and give us any

00:10:45

explanation, any any deeper insight into

00:10:47

Seattle's defense? So, Mike McDonald has

00:10:50

done with that defense, essentially what

00:10:52

he did with the Ravens defense over

00:10:54

their couple years, taking them to best

00:10:56

in the league, more or less. I I thought

00:10:58

for a moment there that the that the

00:11:00

rest of the league, you know, he he was

00:11:02

right at the it sounded like he was at

00:11:03

the cutting edge when he first came on

00:11:05

board. Then people start, you know,

00:11:07

typically catching on. People start, you

00:11:10

know, copying and so you don't typically

00:11:12

maintain that kind of advantage for

00:11:14

multiple years. You don't often get an

00:11:16

entire second, you know, turn with it,

00:11:18

but he seems to have gotten that. What

00:11:20

What do you think the heart of

00:11:21

McDonald's advantage is? He's a head

00:11:23

coach obviously, but as a defensive guy.

00:11:26

So when he was in Baltimore, he really

00:11:28

effectively used simulated blitzes and

00:11:31

and what we mean by that is sort of

00:11:33

bringing maybe just bringing four

00:11:35

players, but you don't know which four

00:11:36

it's going to be. So that maybe maybe

00:11:38

there's six or seven guys at the line

00:11:40

and it's not just the four down players

00:11:43

who come. It's four com four players and

00:11:45

then you end up with one-on- ones even

00:11:48

if they have six men blocking, but they

00:11:50

now you still have seven seven back. And

00:11:52

I think he still does some of that. And

00:11:54

I I'm going to steal some analysis from

00:11:57

uh some of my co-workers when we were I

00:11:59

was working on the on that game where

00:12:01

they mentioned two things. One, they

00:12:03

felt like when he does blitz though,

00:12:06

it's it's not just to blitz. It's like

00:12:09

it is a it's like purely with design and

00:12:13

so it's just he felt like more tactical.

00:12:15

And then the other thing was just that

00:12:17

the way that they in the run game

00:12:21

felt like Leonard Williams has been so

00:12:24

effective that they're able to

00:12:27

essentially know that if the run goes to

00:12:30

Leonard Williams, they have an advantage

00:12:32

and if you if it goes away from Leonard

00:12:33

Williams, you can send players in that

00:12:36

direction in advance and and that

00:12:38

Seattle is able to take advantage of

00:12:40

that. Uh and so that's those are non

00:12:44

quantity answers. The the sim the sim

00:12:47

pressure stuff we certainly have seen um

00:12:51

or or in the past have se or McDonald

00:12:53

have success with. I think those are

00:12:55

some of the reasons. I also think, and

00:12:58

this is not like a great answer here,

00:13:00

but I think it's important to like

00:13:01

recognize that when we talk about

00:13:03

schematic

00:13:04

advantages in football, I think we have

00:13:06

a long way to go in terms of quantifying

00:13:08

them, which is the way that I understand

00:13:09

football, and I I think to some some

00:13:11

degree you you guys do, but I think that

00:13:13

there's a lot more there that doesn't

00:13:17

show up yet. We'll get there, not yet.

00:13:21

You know, I had one conversation with an

00:13:23

analyst who knew something about

00:13:25

McDonald's system a couple years ago,

00:13:27

and he he talked about the the

00:13:29

communication, the internal

00:13:30

communication around the schemes and the

00:13:31

play calls and how much of advantage he

00:13:34

had just because he made it easier to

00:13:37

remember what the play was being that

00:13:40

was being called as a family of other

00:13:42

plays. And I think once you've

00:13:44

simplified communication, you can then

00:13:47

in some sense use more elaborate

00:13:49

communication. you can you can call on

00:13:50

more a wider range of plays if you can

00:13:53

communicate them more simply. And that

00:13:55

sounds like a bizarre thing to have an

00:13:58

advantage with, but I do think that was

00:14:00

something he deployed early on that may

00:14:02

still probably still does, but gave him

00:14:04

an advantage early on. Um, okay. Why

00:14:07

don't we shift gears then? You Well,

00:14:09

before we before we leave the playoffs

00:14:10

all together, let's some team you like

00:14:12

in the AFC or give us something not

00:14:14

obvious that we've been talking about

00:14:16

the kind of heavy favorites in the NFC.

00:14:18

What's interesting on the AFC side?

00:14:21

>> On the AFC side, I think I I kind of

00:14:24

think I've been st staring at this all

00:14:26

day trying to figure out I got to do

00:14:28

some predictions and figure out who's

00:14:31

underrated. The more I look at it, the

00:14:33

more I think Denver might be underrated.

00:14:35

And I I say this as a Boon Knicks

00:14:37

someone who's been a Bon Knick skeptic

00:14:39

for a long

00:14:40

>> I was about to ask you, convince me on

00:14:41

Bo Knicks.

00:14:43

Well, he's played a lot better honestly,

00:14:46

I think, over the last last few weeks.

00:14:49

And I try not to, you know, hyperfixate

00:14:52

on just a few games, but it is true. I

00:14:54

do think he I do think he's played

00:14:56

reasonably well in the second half here.

00:14:59

But at the same time, it's like we know

00:15:02

the recipe for winning without a great

00:15:04

quarterback. You have to have great

00:15:06

pieces elsewhere. And they really do

00:15:08

have it. They have an excellent

00:15:09

offensive line. They have, we've talked

00:15:11

a lot about Seattle's defense, but

00:15:13

Denver is can be right there as well.

00:15:16

And

00:15:18

then come back to what I said at the

00:15:19

beginning of the show where I feel like

00:15:21

the AFC is just weaker. They have an

00:15:23

easier path than you might otherwise

00:15:25

expect for a one se I mean like there's

00:15:27

a world where they're playing Pittsburgh

00:15:28

at home in round two. That's like not

00:15:31

even a hard world to fathom and like

00:15:34

that's all like where that's all they

00:15:35

have to do to get to the AFC

00:15:36

Championship game.

00:15:38

>> Okay, hold on. Is there any is there

00:15:39

anything to the narrative the the the

00:15:41

the Steelers narrative that they were

00:15:44

selling on Sunday night that Rogers and

00:15:47

his receivers needed more time that

00:15:49

they're beginning to understand each

00:15:51

other better. They communicate better.

00:15:52

They see the same things. They're

00:15:53

coordinated better. Medaf will come off

00:15:55

a suspension. Hell, they just beat the

00:15:56

Ravens without Medaf. Is there anything

00:15:58

to that story that there's a trajectory

00:16:00

here at the end for this Steeler? And

00:16:02

this is spoken as one of the diehard

00:16:04

Steelers haters in the country.

00:16:06

>> I highly doubt it. I mean, I don't

00:16:12

like I don't think that we've seen that

00:16:15

we have seen moments from Rogers, but I

00:16:17

don't think that we're looking at I

00:16:19

would think we're still looking at an

00:16:20

average Shabbo average starter. I think

00:16:22

that DK Metaf has been important for

00:16:25

them, but he's not like a huge part of

00:16:27

their offense. Like, I agree with the

00:16:29

general narrative that they miss him and

00:16:33

it gives him, you know, that that hurts.

00:16:35

It's not like they were throwing down

00:16:37

field a ton to Mechaf all season long. I

00:16:40

think anyone who's had DK Mechaf in

00:16:42

fantasy is like wait a second hang on

00:16:44

we're talking about this and they're

00:16:46

going like I think what if Pittsburgh is

00:16:49

going to get through I think it's

00:16:50

because they throw the ball they throw

00:16:52

the ball really quickly and that is

00:16:54

going to mitigate Houston's edge rushing

00:16:57

advantage that they that they certainly

00:16:59

have and so maybe that's one way where

00:17:02

they're well suited against

00:17:05

I don't think it's like he needs more

00:17:07

time to mesh with his receivers I

00:17:10

Okay. What about Josh Allen just picking

00:17:12

up and carrying the Bills? What about

00:17:13

the best quarterback left in the

00:17:15

>> absolutely could happen? I mean, why why

00:17:17

not? He's he's like the best remaining

00:17:20

player. If we're talking about predict

00:17:22

one player to be incredible, he's that

00:17:24

now they like they have they have

00:17:26

weaknesses. Could they be receiver?

00:17:28

Yeah. I mean, yeah, but sometimes Allen

00:17:30

can just especially if it's playoffs,

00:17:33

he's willing to shoulder as much of the

00:17:35

load on his legs as as he wants.

00:17:39

Yeah, I think could could the Bills make

00:17:41

a run 100%.

00:17:43

>> Okay, so tell us about these these

00:17:45

broadcasts that you've been involved

00:17:46

with so far. You're doing something

00:17:47

different for ESPN.

00:17:49

>> Yeah, I'm I'm really excited about this.

00:17:51

So, we have this thing called the

00:17:53

Playbook broadcast. It's an alternate

00:17:55

broadcast, right? So, we have the the

00:17:56

main broadcast, sometimes there's a

00:17:58

Manning cast, and then we have this

00:17:59

playbook broadcast, which we started in

00:18:02

week 16. The broadcast is is I would I

00:18:07

think it's cool. I think it's cool if

00:18:08

you like football. It's got an all 22

00:18:10

view. So for a lot of people, no matter

00:18:13

what your interest is otherwise, that is

00:18:15

a great view and it's not the full

00:18:17

zoomed out like coach's view cam. It's

00:18:19

22 players on the field but a little

00:18:21

closer, which to me is kind of like the

00:18:22

ideal view.

00:18:24

>> Okay,

00:18:24

>> we have some we're working with a

00:18:27

company called Adrenaline, which is uh

00:18:29

Shawn Sha Lee is a big player there.

00:18:32

Shaun Lee the Cowboys linebacker if you

00:18:34

remember. Um, and they're an analytics

00:18:37

company. They've got real- time data

00:18:39

coming in from NFL NextGen Stats. And

00:18:41

what they use it for is to predict the

00:18:43

probability of blitzes, uh, run pass and

00:18:48

target probability, and it's dynamically

00:18:49

updating. So, when a linebacker starts

00:18:52

to creep forward, you'll see that blitz

00:18:54

probability pop. I I found that to be

00:18:56

really cool, especially if you look sort

00:18:57

of just trends over game. We did the San

00:18:59

Francisco game a few weeks ago, not this

00:19:01

last week, but a few weeks ago. And in

00:19:03

the first half, everything was

00:19:05

singledigit blitz probability. They were

00:19:07

just, you know, 8 9% blitzing. And I

00:19:09

don't know if they blitzed at all in the

00:19:11

first half. And then suddenly in the

00:19:13

second half, you made they it was 40% or

00:19:17

45% or 50% and they they were blitzing

00:19:20

more. And to me, that was that was cool

00:19:22

as someone that

00:19:23

>> had to see that. just I I I just need

00:19:25

the numbers sometimes to highlight this

00:19:28

predictive. It was clearly showing a

00:19:30

shift in mentality that they had from

00:19:32

early in the game to later win. So we

00:19:34

>> real quickly being being an academic we

00:19:36

believe in attributions and this is

00:19:38

unnecessary but might as well call out s

00:19:40

do we want to give Sam Schwarzman credit

00:19:42

I think of the Amazon alt broadcast

00:19:44

maybe two years ago being the kind of

00:19:47

real time moment where these blitz

00:19:49

probability

00:19:50

started.

00:19:51

>> Yeah. They have the sort of like identif

00:19:53

the the

00:19:53

>> yeah

00:19:55

that's right it wasn't quantified but it

00:19:57

was like this guy's more likely to come

00:19:58

and it was they were discovering it they

00:20:00

were discovering it real time which was

00:20:03

just ridiculous and great fun.

00:20:04

>> So that's been that's been great and

00:20:05

then we we've had a sort of rotating

00:20:07

analysts uh and and they've been and

00:20:09

it's been ex players and then been

00:20:11

incredible at breaking out x's nos's.

00:20:12

we've been more focused on

00:20:15

letting them try to sort of tell us

00:20:17

about what's happening schematically

00:20:19

over the course of the game. And then

00:20:22

the last thing is that either Brian

00:20:24

Burke or myself have been on the

00:20:26

broadcast as decision analysts. So, kind

00:20:30

of like the ref analyst when there's a

00:20:34

>> right. It's it's it is it's like instead

00:20:36

of Mike Pereira coming in to say like,

00:20:37

"Yeah, the ch this challenge is going to

00:20:39

be over is going to be upheld." Uh they

00:20:42

bring on Brian or me to talk about

00:20:44

fourth downs, two points, timeouts, any

00:20:47

sort of game management or we were

00:20:48

showing a lot more advanced metrics on

00:20:50

this broadcast, too, so we can answer

00:20:52

questions about that. And it's been it's

00:20:54

been it's really fun. So, I did my first

00:20:56

one last week in the Seattle 49ers game

00:20:59

and I'll be on the broadcast on Monday

00:21:01

on uh Texans Steelers.

00:21:03

>> Great fun. Great fun. What's an example

00:21:05

of a situation that you were called in

00:21:06

to count to talk about?

00:21:08

>> So, there were sort of like three

00:21:10

moments that I thought were really or a

00:21:13

bunch that were really exciting in the

00:21:14

first in the game I did. So, in that

00:21:17

game, Seattle went for it on at the four

00:21:21

yard line. They went for it on fourth

00:21:22

down. And I think this is kind of old

00:21:26

hat to anyone listening to more money

00:21:28

Moneyball, but like we talk about how

00:21:31

the advantage here is you're trying to

00:21:32

score a touchdown, but if you fail,

00:21:35

you're putting the other team at the

00:21:36

four. And it just, you know, they did

00:21:38

fail and it ended up paying off so so

00:21:41

well. And it doesn't always work this

00:21:43

way, but then uh the 49ers get a three

00:21:46

three and out and they had to punt and

00:21:48

then they committed a penalty on the

00:21:49

punt. So the Seattle started with a plus

00:21:51

35 their next drive and we got to come

00:21:53

back and say hey see like wasn't so bad

00:21:56

uh going for it. We had a great you know

00:21:58

I think kind of a a clear the 49ers made

00:22:01

a clear misstep misstep by not calling

00:22:03

timeouts at the end. And then my

00:22:05

favorite part was there was this wrinkle

00:22:07

in this game where Seattle

00:22:11

if it was a tie Seattle effectively won.

00:22:14

It was equally equivalent to a win for

00:22:16

Seattle. Uh it was not perfectly

00:22:17

equivalent to a loss for 49ers. So it

00:22:19

wasn't even a quite zero sum game which

00:22:21

I also found quite fun.

00:22:23

>> So obviously if it had gone to overtime

00:22:26

that would have been re really impactful

00:22:29

in terms of

00:22:30

>> how you strategy.

00:22:31

>> Yeah, for sure.

00:22:32

>> But uh there was also wrinkles going

00:22:36

into the into like in the fourth quarter

00:22:38

where we were talking about this sort of

00:22:41

down four strategy, right? uh if you're

00:22:43

down if you're you're down four, go for

00:22:45

two. For San Francisco, they were

00:22:48

driving. This almost happened and I

00:22:50

think everyone was in agreement. This

00:22:52

wasn't just me, that they ought to go

00:22:53

for two earlier with this was like 12

00:22:56

minutes left in the game because

00:22:59

overtime was a just a much worse

00:23:01

proposition for them, right,

00:23:02

>> as usual,

00:23:03

>> right? Can I can I survey you guys for

00:23:05

two two seconds real quick? Sure.

00:23:08

This was a question I asked analytics

00:23:10

people in the league going into this. If

00:23:13

the Seahawks had had a down eight

00:23:16

scenario, like a So, the Seahawks have

00:23:18

been down eight and there were I don't

00:23:21

know six minutes left in the game. Would

00:23:24

they have gone should they have gone for

00:23:27

two knowing that a tie is as good as a

00:23:30

win for them? I want to know what your

00:23:33

thoughts are and then I'll tell you what

00:23:34

folks in the league said.

00:23:37

I mean, I'm always skeptical when the

00:23:38

intuitive answer seems so obvious,

00:23:41

right? Because it sure does seem like

00:23:43

the answer is yes since the tie is

00:23:45

beneficial. Um,

00:23:48

>> such a low probability. I think though

00:23:49

the tie is still working it's still

00:23:52

working out as a tie at that point,

00:23:54

right? I think I I think so my intuition

00:23:56

would be kind of just that the the the

00:23:59

tie would almost be irrelevant to the

00:24:00

calculation. You'd still be going for

00:24:02

the

00:24:04

>> Yeah. Sorry. Do you agree? You agree?

00:24:06

Um,

00:24:08

>> yeah, I am persuaded by Shane. Yes,

00:24:10

absolutely.

00:24:10

>> Yeah. So, I talked to punks in the

00:24:12

league. They were they were mixed. I

00:24:13

said some people who felt like you

00:24:15

shouldn't u and then some people who

00:24:18

felt like you should. When I did out the

00:24:20

math, I came to the same conclusion that

00:24:22

Shane did, which is like it all hinges

00:24:24

on how how like given a tie, given

00:24:27

overtime, how likely do you think a tie

00:24:29

is, which is not necessarily an

00:24:31

answerable question because we also have

00:24:33

this unique state where Seattle is more

00:24:36

motivated for a tie than

00:24:38

>> Yeah, we haven't we haven't seen a

00:24:39

setting like that, right? We we don't we

00:24:41

don't know. It's the team's gonna are

00:24:43

going to play differently. Super

00:24:44

interesting. So,

00:24:46

>> I if I if we use 20% if we say there's a

00:24:50

20% chance of a tie, which feels like

00:24:52

sort of reasonable going in uh going

00:24:54

into overtime, I don't think you could

00:24:56

justify I think you still go for two

00:24:58

down here.

00:24:58

>> Okay. Okay.

00:24:59

>> Um but close call.

00:25:01

>> This is fun that they have you guys

00:25:02

pulled in. Um it'll be it I need to

00:25:04

watch this. It sounds like it's

00:25:05

interesting to watch anyway, but to have

00:25:07

you and Brian on the podcast on the

00:25:08

actual broadcast, I mean, come on. This

00:25:10

is good fun. Um, listen, Seth, a busy

00:25:13

time of year for you. Appreciate you

00:25:15

making time for us. Great to hear from

00:25:17

you. Thanks for helping us understand

00:25:18

the NFL playoffs better and good luck

00:25:20

with the show. So, we could dial in and

00:25:22

watch you on Monday. The text.

00:25:23

>> Yes, I'll be on Monday. Brian will be

00:25:25

back for the divisional round.

00:25:26

>> Cool. Cool. All right. Have fun. All

00:25:28

right. That's Seth Walder, national

00:25:30

analyst for NFL on the ESPN network.

00:25:34

We've had him on many times over the

00:25:35

years. Always a pleasure, Seth. Take

00:25:37

care.

00:25:38

>> Thank you.

00:25:39

That's the first half of Wharton

00:25:41

Moneyball. We still have a half to go.

00:25:42

Come back and join us after the break.

00:25:45

Welcome back. Welcome back to Wharton

00:25:48

Moneyball. Welcome to the second half of

00:25:50

this week's show. A full hour of sports

00:25:53

analytics here on the Wharton podcast

00:25:55

network. Kade Massie hosting this week

00:25:57

with my buddy Shane Jensen. This is

00:26:00

Tuesday afternoon show will go up on

00:26:01

Wednesday just off the line with Seth

00:26:04

Walder talking NFL playoffs, new

00:26:07

broadcast platforms. Good fun with Seth

00:26:10

always. This was a week where we legit

00:26:13

couldn't decide which way to go with our

00:26:15

guest because we've got rich football at

00:26:17

both the pro and college levels. So, we

00:26:20

decided we didn't have to decide. We can

00:26:21

go both ways. This half of the show,

00:26:23

college football, bringing in Stephen

00:26:25

Godfrey, longtime friend of the show,

00:26:27

been with us for years now. Always a

00:26:28

delight to get time with Stephen.

00:26:31

Stephen writes for Yahoo and the

00:26:34

Washington Post. He has his own

00:26:36

production company. Has a podcast with

00:26:38

Ryan Annie. Phantom Island podcast

00:26:41

covers a wide range of football and even

00:26:43

broader issues. And he is talent

00:26:46

appearing three times a week with Andy

00:26:48

Staples and Ross Dinger on Yahoo's

00:26:50

College Football Inquirer podcast, which

00:26:52

is one of the best ways to dive deep

00:26:55

into college football out there.

00:26:56

Stephen, always a pleasure. Thanks for

00:26:58

making time.

00:26:59

>> How are you guys? I thought of you

00:27:00

recently. I think since the last time

00:27:02

I've been on the show, I have an

00:27:04

8-year-old now who is two things.

00:27:06

Obsessed with sports stats and wants to

00:27:09

go to Texas.

00:27:10

>> Hey, this is our person. Send him our

00:27:13

way. Absolut Is this what you said?

00:27:16

>> Yeah. Yeah, him. Yeah. Uh 8-year-old

00:27:17

son. I have my I have three kids, the

00:27:19

two the two eldest boys. Um

00:27:21

>> Okay.

00:27:22

>> He got into Texas. He still has not

00:27:24

visited the state of Texas, but Bejan

00:27:26

Robinson got him in cuz we're all

00:27:28

Falcons fans in our house.

00:27:29

>> Absolutely.

00:27:30

>> And so he all things bej. But he has

00:27:32

taken this pretty far. He has he has

00:27:34

Texas apparel. Uh he got Texas he has

00:27:37

like Texas uh like all the burnt orange

00:27:40

which doesn't really go with anything or

00:27:42

it goes with everything depending on

00:27:43

your mantra. Um

00:27:44

>> that's right.

00:27:45

>> And he is starting to track stats. He's

00:27:47

starting to I'm teaching him how to

00:27:48

chart games. Um, and he's he's got like

00:27:52

a he's like got like a 99 or 100 in math

00:27:55

right now in the third grade. So I'm not

00:27:57

sure he's my kid. Um, so because I

00:28:00

failed business calculus twice in

00:28:02

college. I failed a lot of classes in

00:28:03

college, but calculus especially. So,

00:28:05

uh, it's kind of amazing. It's kind, you

00:28:07

know,

00:28:09

>> it's important no matter what show

00:28:10

you're on to encourage I I encourage my

00:28:13

kids like my wife and I are graduates of

00:28:15

Old Miss, but you know, because I work

00:28:17

in the media, I maintain an objectivity

00:28:20

and I'm not from Mississippi and we told

00:28:22

our kids as they started to take

00:28:24

interest in what I do, pick your teams.

00:28:26

So, I've got a Georgia fan and a Texas

00:28:28

fan now and and they're front running. I

00:28:32

feel fine with this. like it's probably

00:28:35

guaranteed more joy. I gave them Atlanta

00:28:37

sports which is a little bit like having

00:28:39

some sort of terminal disease. So like

00:28:41

heavy I saw your hat and I thought about

00:28:44

it and I was like, man, yeah, I have so

00:28:45

much Texas paraphernalia in my house

00:28:47

right now.

00:28:48

>> Well, listen, that makes me kind of

00:28:49

proud. You know, maybe Bill Connley has

00:28:53

influenced him early on. Maybe he the

00:28:55

podcast ain't played nobody got in there

00:28:57

early on. But look, we we'll we take the

00:28:59

kids pretty early. We have summer camps

00:29:01

for them. As soon as he hits like, I

00:29:03

don't know, late junior high, he can

00:29:05

come up to Philadelphia and do Wharton

00:29:06

Moneyball stuff. We are here for his

00:29:09

>> You're not kidding, right?

00:29:11

>> Not kidding. No, we have we have high

00:29:12

school kids from all over the world who

00:29:13

come for weeks during the summertime to

00:29:15

do sports. Great program.

00:29:17

>> Oh my god. He would love that. He would

00:29:18

love that. Now, anything sports stats

00:29:20

has been how he got into sports. Yeah.

00:29:22

Or how sorry, how he got into math, you

00:29:24

know. Well, that's that's that's Audi

00:29:26

Winer, our co-host, is the big driver

00:29:28

behind those programs. And his his

00:29:30

motivation is not to talk sports with

00:29:32

kids. His motivation is to pull them

00:29:33

into stats via something that they're

00:29:35

going to engage with.

00:29:37

>> But also, Austin's a good town, Stephen,

00:29:39

and so you can bring him around Austin

00:29:40

anytime, and we'll set him up for some

00:29:42

UT stuff.

00:29:44

>> The plan is Oh, he would love that. The

00:29:46

plan is right now he wants to go to Red

00:29:47

River. So,

00:29:49

>> even better. I mean, you can't beat

00:29:50

that. I mean, tell me, look, here's

00:29:52

you're as legit a person to ask this as

00:29:54

anybody. What is a better sporting

00:29:56

environment in North America than Texas?

00:30:00

I'm sure they exist, but it's really,

00:30:01

really, really tough to beat Texas. I

00:30:03

>> I don't have a full breadth of

00:30:06

experience in sporting events, but I can

00:30:07

tell you in terms of American football,

00:30:09

I've pretty much done it all. I've done

00:30:10

multiple Super Bowls. I've done multiple

00:30:12

NFL playoff games, that kind of thing.

00:30:14

I've been pretty much everywhere in

00:30:15

college. And Red River, like it gets a

00:30:17

little semantic when you start ranking

00:30:18

the top five, but it is 110% a top five

00:30:23

experience because you know what's so

00:30:24

funny? The the decrepitness of the

00:30:26

cotton ball works in its favor on

00:30:28

television. It's such a forced it's a

00:30:31

forced visual. It's like a it's like a

00:30:33

special effect because it's crowded.

00:30:36

>> There's nowhere to go. There's nothing

00:30:37

to distract you. You're basically in a

00:30:39

cement sort of like enclave and then

00:30:42

they jam it with one color and another

00:30:44

color and they split it and on

00:30:46

television it has such a beautiful

00:30:47

aesthetic. I had a blast the year that I

00:30:49

went. Also, the favorite always loses.

00:30:52

It defies math.

00:30:53

>> It's fun that way. I think the

00:30:55

neutrality of the the site makes a

00:30:57

probably the the biggest factor there.

00:30:59

Um but it's so much fun. One last thing

00:31:01

on on Bjan and Atlanta. I was pulling

00:31:05

for Atlanta because I was pulling for

00:31:07

the Panthers because of Eric Eager who

00:31:09

is a PFF and number three now with

00:31:11

Carolina. So,

00:31:12

>> it's a very complicated calculus.

00:31:13

>> It's a very complicated thing. So,

00:31:15

because of eager loyalty, I had to pull

00:31:16

for the Falcons. But but but I love

00:31:18

excuses to watch them because Bjon is so

00:31:21

ridiculous. I mean, it's just just the

00:31:23

average fiveyard run is like a pleasure

00:31:25

that you don't get from other

00:31:26

>> it has a a sort of indescribable it's

00:31:30

it's hard to quantify, but it has a Bo

00:31:33

Jackson like Barry Sanders element to it

00:31:37

in in my as a parent now to remember

00:31:40

what it was like to see exceptional

00:31:42

talent isolated at the NFL level, right?

00:31:45

because we have such even competition in

00:31:48

the NFL. It's very rare and I think

00:31:49

that's what actually makes a star. You

00:31:51

know, I think the first couple times

00:31:53

Mahomes defied logic, you know, in his

00:31:55

first or second season as a starter and,

00:31:58

you know, maybe not so much the Saints

00:31:59

game last weekend, but that Monday night

00:32:00

game against the Rams recently where,

00:32:03

you know, they were burning off the

00:32:04

clock before I think they got the ball

00:32:06

back with like under a minute left and

00:32:07

he ripped a 95 yard uh run. It was it

00:32:10

was the longest of his career, including

00:32:11

college is what they said on the

00:32:13

broadcast.

00:32:14

that kind of stuff. That's how kids find

00:32:16

superheroes in athletes and I think

00:32:18

that's what's been so cool about this

00:32:20

season.

00:32:20

>> Yeah, definitely.

00:32:21

>> It reminds me as my childhood Monday

00:32:23

Night long run by a University of Texas

00:32:26

running back was Earl Campbell. He

00:32:27

ripped about a 80 80 plus yard against

00:32:30

the Dolphins up the sidelines on Monday

00:32:32

Night Football as probably a rookie.

00:32:35

That's one of the great memories as a I

00:32:37

don't know 11 year old kid.

00:32:40

Stephen, you are of the South, I think,

00:32:42

in so many ways. And I'd even forgotten

00:32:44

that you were miss alum. And I thought

00:32:45

about this particular Final Four. You

00:32:47

live in Nashville. You talk about your

00:32:48

Louisiana family all the time. One of

00:32:50

the most influential articles you wrote

00:32:51

early in your career was the Bagman

00:32:53

article, which I believe was miss. And

00:32:55

so had to talk. Old Miss is in the final

00:32:58

four. I know

00:32:59

>> they've got this ridiculous ridiculous

00:33:02

morass of issues around them between

00:33:04

quarterback eligibility next year

00:33:05

between the coach having gone now

00:33:08

recruiting players and restricting

00:33:10

coaches. It's just absurd the craziness.

00:33:13

H how does it feel? What's the sense

00:33:15

from the miss people about what's going

00:33:17

on with that team right now?

00:33:18

>> Well, I just don't think Sanity is is

00:33:21

not possible in Mississippi. Okay.

00:33:24

Mississippi by nature tells a good

00:33:26

story, but they don't necessarily end in

00:33:28

a great place. Um, so it it the irony is

00:33:31

not lost on me that they ascend to this

00:33:34

point that they've never really seen in

00:33:36

the modern game. They claim three

00:33:37

national titles. One of those might be

00:33:40

semi-legit as we all know that the uh

00:33:43

the na the title claiming pre what 1970

00:33:47

is dubious at best. You often have six

00:33:49

or seven in one season.

00:33:50

>> Oh, absolutely.

00:33:52

This is completely uncharted for them.

00:33:54

Obviously, if you follow college

00:33:56

football at all, you should be

00:33:57

completely shocked to see Old Miss up

00:33:58

there. Um,

00:34:00

>> they are on

00:34:03

It's house money. It's house money. that

00:34:05

that that's the trope I'm gonna go with

00:34:07

here because I think the even the most

00:34:10

passionate Old Miss fan

00:34:12

>> knows that

00:34:13

>> Georgia had them dead to rights a couple

00:34:15

times in that game and more than likely

00:34:18

they shouldn't be here but because of

00:34:20

some astronomical athletic play from

00:34:22

their quarterback Trinidad Chamblas and

00:34:24

some let's say suspicious decision-m on

00:34:27

the play called on that that next to

00:34:29

last drive for Georgia. They left some

00:34:31

time on the clock. It allowed Old Miss

00:34:32

to pull off those those big passes and

00:34:34

get down in field goal range. Here we

00:34:37

are. So, um it's, you know, I said all

00:34:40

that without even mentioning the fact

00:34:41

that their head coach is 2 and 0 in his

00:34:43

career and those two games are in the

00:34:45

playoff. Uh and there's this giant sort

00:34:47

of unstoppable distraction in Baton

00:34:50

Rouge in the form of Lane Keifin. The

00:34:53

latest in that saga right now is that it

00:34:56

uh it does not seem Look, this is early

00:34:59

in the transfer portal window. I should

00:35:01

clarify what I'm saying, but so far Miss

00:35:03

has still continued to land really big

00:35:06

names in the transfer portal. Uh LSU has

00:35:08

gotten off to a quieter start and so um

00:35:11

I'm not saying there's any buyer remorse

00:35:13

yet with Lane Kein at LSU, but um every

00:35:16

day is a new chapter in the saga. Uh I

00:35:20

got a text from an official at Old Miss

00:35:23

I don't know half hour after the game

00:35:25

ended uh the Sugar Bowl and they I you

00:35:28

know we're just kind of talking casually

00:35:30

and the big fear was

00:35:34

well today was all about Old Miss and

00:35:38

since this whole thing with Lane has

00:35:39

started any like like it's always about

00:35:42

Lane and so there was this feeling after

00:35:44

the game what's Lane going to do next

00:35:46

and then sure enough now he's calling

00:35:48

assistants back to Baton Rouge and it

00:35:50

looks like the running back's coach

00:35:51

Kevin Smith won't return to go coach in

00:35:54

the Fiesta Bowl. And you can always kind

00:35:56

of count on Lane to pick the pace of the

00:35:58

story up, so to speak. Like, you know,

00:36:00

he's like he's like the reality star on

00:36:02

those Bravo shows where they're like,

00:36:03

"Hey, can you go pick a fight with

00:36:04

somebody just to make like that's that's

00:36:07

Lane's essence, if you will."

00:36:09

>> Okay.

00:36:09

>> He's an accelerant.

00:36:11

>> Extremely. Yes.

00:36:15

Well, game.

00:36:18

That game reminded me of a theory that

00:36:19

I've been

00:36:22

rooting over for a few years now. I

00:36:23

enjoyed that game more than any Texas

00:36:25

game I watched all year. I think I enjoy

00:36:27

football games more when Texas is not

00:36:29

involved. I so 100% thoroughly enjoyed.

00:36:31

Now, I wanted Miss to win. So, I had a

00:36:33

interest of kind some kind, but it

00:36:35

wasn't strong. It was just an enjoyable

00:36:38

football. It was a perfect football game

00:36:39

if you for anybody, but especially if

00:36:41

you were pulling for Miss. But it's just

00:36:44

easier to watch those games where you

00:36:45

don't care. You care, but not that much,

00:36:48

you know?

00:36:48

>> Well, I would I wholeheartedly endorse

00:36:50

people to go experience sporting events

00:36:52

where they don't have a dog, you know, a

00:36:54

dog in the race. I like that's the trick

00:36:56

of sports writing. I have a blast when

00:36:58

I'm an objective party. When it's your

00:37:01

team and your emotional investment and

00:37:03

your stakes, it's terrible.

00:37:05

I don't even like going to see my teams

00:37:07

in games I think they could lose. You

00:37:10

know, I I love I love finding that one

00:37:12

game on the schedule where you're like,

00:37:13

"This is going to be comfort." Whatever

00:37:14

the sport is, just hey, this is going to

00:37:16

be a comfortable margin. It's going to

00:37:17

be fine. Like I used to tell parents of

00:37:19

young kids all the time, if you want the

00:37:21

experience and you take the photos and

00:37:23

all that stuff of, "Hey, we're at the

00:37:24

stadium. We're first dude preseason.

00:37:26

Pre-season

00:37:28

preseason tickets are easy to get. Kid

00:37:31

wants to leave in the second quarter.

00:37:32

Nobody cares because there's some third

00:37:34

stringer out there." Um, no. I comp I'm

00:37:36

100% with you. objective viewing of

00:37:40

great sports.

00:37:42

Unless your team wins a championship,

00:37:43

it's pretty hard to beat.

00:37:45

>> Yeah. Yeah, that's right. And so unless

00:37:47

you unless you're pulling you haven't

00:37:48

been a Pats fan back at Pete Brady or

00:37:52

Chiefs fan for the last five years. It's

00:37:53

really tough in football. Okay, one last

00:37:55

thing on Miss though, Chamblas, can can

00:37:59

he do that again? Is it possible? You've

00:38:02

watched him all year. You've watched him

00:38:03

more than I have. Um, and does he need

00:38:05

to to get past

00:38:08

>> I think his touchdown interception ratio

00:38:10

right now is 21-3 or 24-3, something

00:38:13

like that. He has not been put in a

00:38:15

situation where he's made a lot of

00:38:17

decision errors. Just flat out

00:38:21

misreading of coverage or forced into

00:38:24

bad decisions. He does not tend to make

00:38:27

bad decisions while mobile. and there's

00:38:30

a very small list of quarterbacks that

00:38:31

you could say that about at the college

00:38:33

level, even the pro level where you run

00:38:36

the risk if you're Miami,

00:38:39

is that

00:38:41

it presents a very different looking

00:38:43

pocket than the teams that you've beaten

00:38:46

so far. Marcel Reed and Texas A&M and

00:38:48

then Julian Sean and Ohio State. And I

00:38:53

think it's going to be Look, I I I I

00:38:56

like Miami in the game because of the

00:38:57

way their defense is playing. However, I

00:39:00

think Charlie Weiss Jr. excels that

00:39:01

that's the offensive coordinator at Old

00:39:03

Miss in

00:39:05

creating that annoyance. It's it's it's

00:39:07

almost like being a defensive co

00:39:09

coordinator in the fact that I think a

00:39:11

lot of their schemes and routes are

00:39:13

predicated on chaos and they're they're

00:39:16

very sequence reliant and then you could

00:39:18

have someone like Chamblas who can

00:39:19

freelance if something breaks down. All

00:39:22

this is to say Miami is very athletic,

00:39:25

but there's a danger in over pursuit

00:39:27

against a quarterback like this. And

00:39:30

some of the stuff that I saw them bottle

00:39:31

up Ohio State with some of the stuff

00:39:33

that I saw that worked so well in that

00:39:35

really lowscoring&m game, I don't think

00:39:37

it's going to apply here. Um, so I think

00:39:40

they've got to find a way. And maybe

00:39:42

honestly, maybe it's something more

00:39:44

similar to, you know, when mobile

00:39:47

quarterback kind of came back as a

00:39:49

concept in the as like Michael Vic for

00:39:51

instance,

00:39:53

there was this idea that you could solve

00:39:55

it with cover two or Tampa 2 and you

00:39:58

could box, you know, apply pressure, try

00:40:02

and get home with four or five and then

00:40:03

really start dropping and start creating

00:40:05

problems there. that's anothetical to

00:40:07

the way Miami's played this year, but no

00:40:09

one's really made Chamblas get into a

00:40:11

situation with multiple turnovers. Um,

00:40:14

and what's funny is on the other side of

00:40:15

the ball, you can say the same thing

00:40:16

about Carson Beck has play has had a

00:40:18

clean sheet for a while now, which is

00:40:21

was the big knock on him going to Miami

00:40:23

and the price tag associated with him.

00:40:25

So, um, you know, it's probably cliche

00:40:27

to say this, but I think the game is

00:40:28

going to rely on turnovers from the

00:40:31

quarterback position specifically. Um

00:40:33

because these are I think in Miami you

00:40:36

have so much raw talent and then in Miss

00:40:38

I think really they're kind of the most

00:40:39

creative team left in the in the final

00:40:41

four.

00:40:43

>> Yeah. He just hasn't given some of the

00:40:45

concern that you get like you said

00:40:46

decision making on the move. I mean

00:40:48

there's plenty of mobile quarterbacks

00:40:50

who you can't quite trust when they

00:40:51

start making the decision out there. He

00:40:53

hasn't given us that evidence yet. All

00:40:54

right let's let's shift to the other

00:40:56

game. Um, and what ought to be and will

00:40:59

be if they win the whole thing, one of

00:41:01

the great stories in sports really. I

00:41:03

mean, really, it's I think it's it's

00:41:05

hard to oversell what Signetti has done

00:41:08

at Indiana. If they get this done, it's

00:41:09

just remarkable. Somehow all the drama

00:41:11

at Miss is staying level with Indiana so

00:41:14

far.

00:41:15

>> But talk a little bit about Indiana. Can

00:41:17

you help us understand how this has

00:41:20

happened in the two-year window? What is

00:41:22

sign even where does for as lot many

00:41:24

people don't know where signetti came

00:41:26

from but to come as far as quickly as he

00:41:29

has and this program the losingest

00:41:31

program in the history of college

00:41:32

football to come as far as quickly as I

00:41:35

have how do you explain this deep

00:41:39

there it's

00:41:42

I often invoke a lot of sort of math

00:41:44

vocabulary when I talk casually about

00:41:46

this which is I talk about data sets and

00:41:48

I talk about bias sampling

00:41:51

I think that we so we're forced into

00:41:54

referendum all the time in my industry,

00:41:56

right? We want to know why something's

00:41:58

happening, what the blueprint is, how is

00:42:00

this going to change. The reality is

00:42:03

this. We have about four and a half

00:42:04

years worth of data on the portal. We

00:42:06

have two years of data on a 12 team

00:42:08

playoff. Okay, we have a couple years of

00:42:13

ninegame conference structure in the Big

00:42:15

10.

00:42:16

And then it's really hard to I think

00:42:18

it's really hard to create any data from

00:42:19

the selection committee because um I I

00:42:22

shouldn't swear on this show but I have

00:42:23

thoughts on the uh on the lack of

00:42:25

consistency amongst the selection

00:42:27

committee and just how foolish they are.

00:42:29

>> So with all these mitigating factors in

00:42:31

mind where we don't have 10 or 15 years

00:42:34

worth of data to look at. I I think what

00:42:37

stands out in a short period of time is

00:42:40

that yes a lot of teams are hitting the

00:42:43

portal. Okay, we know that and a lot of

00:42:45

teams that are hitting the portal

00:42:47

effectively have made it thus far. Like

00:42:50

the athletic I think I don't and I don't

00:42:52

know how they built the stat, but they

00:42:55

compiled starts at every position by a

00:42:58

transfer or by a science scholarship

00:43:00

player out of high school.

00:43:01

>> Miss had the highest percentage, Indiana

00:43:03

had the second

00:43:04

>> of transfer starts,

00:43:06

>> transfer starts in the 2025 season. So

00:43:08

any position start where they transfer

00:43:10

where they, you know, native or whatever

00:43:12

you want to call them.

00:43:13

So miss and Indiana led the pack. Oregon

00:43:16

was close. Um on the this this is just

00:43:19

the playoff teams by the way. Um and

00:43:21

then on the lower end you had Georgia

00:43:24

and it it it roughly sused out to what

00:43:26

you thought, right? So it's the teams

00:43:28

that look like they don't belong here

00:43:31

historically. So Texas Tech, Old Miss,

00:43:33

Indiana, Oregon is trends a little bit

00:43:36

more towards transfers, although no one

00:43:37

really seems surprised by that. And then

00:43:39

your stalwart high school recruiting,

00:43:41

Tiffany Brands, Ohio State, Georgia,

00:43:44

etc. They skewed lower. So, everybody's

00:43:48

used the portal. And I swear I bet I was

00:43:50

on here talking about how Florida State

00:43:52

was doing it well two or three years

00:43:54

ago. I probably was.

00:43:55

>> Sure.

00:43:56

>> But

00:43:57

>> you had good company.

00:43:59

>> Yeah. Well, I mean, we were we were all

00:44:00

kind of trying this out for the first

00:44:02

time. and we didn't really know what the

00:44:03

methodology was, you know, and in the

00:44:06

short amount of time, I keep trying to

00:44:08

want to like add context to this or like

00:44:09

put a giant asterisk around what I'm

00:44:11

saying. The consistency that Indiana has

00:44:14

had has been because they have almost a

00:44:16

professional level, like NFL level of

00:44:19

talent on evaluation. So, a lot of the

00:44:22

key players and key contributors right

00:44:23

now, standout guys, are James Madison

00:44:26

transfers.

00:44:28

And that's where, in case y'all don't,

00:44:29

in case people listening don't know,

00:44:31

that's where uh Signetti came from is

00:44:33

James Madison.

00:44:35

And so what that tells us is we've seen

00:44:38

this trend now of coaches coming in,

00:44:39

they'll take nine or 10 guys from their

00:44:41

previous job and portal portal them in,

00:44:43

but they usually they either wash out at

00:44:46

the higher level or they're just not as

00:44:48

effective. What I'm seeing from Indiana

00:44:52

is something that shouldn't make sense,

00:44:53

which is it is a portal-driven

00:44:55

development culture. So that sentence

00:44:58

should not make sense,

00:44:59

>> right?

00:45:00

>> But in a short amount of time, what I'm

00:45:03

seeing is just as much consistency from

00:45:06

guys they they transferred in from the

00:45:07

smaller schools who were maybe two stars

00:45:11

coming out of high school or less or not

00:45:13

ranked at all who developed up and then

00:45:16

continue to meet the expectation of

00:45:18

playing a full Big 10 slate instead of a

00:45:20

full Sunb Belt slate. while you're also

00:45:23

seeing, you know, uh oh my god, my the

00:45:26

name escapes me. He was on the podium at

00:45:28

the Rose Bowl, the center, uh that

00:45:31

transferred from Notre Dame, right?

00:45:33

>> Okay.

00:45:34

>> So, they're keen in their evaluation.

00:45:37

They're sharp with it and they don't

00:45:40

miss. So, how do I explain Indiana who's

00:45:42

the best team left in this tournament

00:45:44

and I think the odds on national title

00:45:45

favorites. Very strange to say versus

00:45:48

Florida State from a couple years ago

00:45:50

where they hit on Jared Verse, they hit

00:45:52

on Keon Coleman, right? These are NFL

00:45:55

players now. And I think I'm talking

00:45:57

about the year 2022 because the next two

00:45:59

or three years, they had those same the

00:46:02

methodology was in place, but two things

00:46:05

happened. In a state like Florida, you

00:46:08

have to you have to underpin everything

00:46:10

with high school recruiting because I'll

00:46:11

talk about Miami in a second. And then

00:46:13

you have to continue to sort of hit 21,

00:46:16

right? Everybody's hit blackjack if they

00:46:19

sit at the table long enough, but it's

00:46:21

not that's not a consistent money-making

00:46:22

method. That's why the casinos are so

00:46:24

nice. They took our money and built

00:46:25

really nice buildings. And there was

00:46:27

this casino-like logic early on with

00:46:29

some of these premier programs that

00:46:30

wanted to live topheavy with the portal

00:46:33

without also doing the all of the unsexy

00:46:36

stuff and the traditional scouting and

00:46:38

high school methodology.

00:46:41

Now, we have a theory on the Yahoo show.

00:46:43

Andy Staples and I have talked about

00:46:44

this.

00:46:47

If we're right about this, it should

00:46:50

start to move Indiana's pendulum a

00:46:53

little bit towards high school as well.

00:46:56

that percentage. I think it was like 64%

00:46:58

of starts or something like that. Let's

00:47:00

say it's somewhere in the 60s.

00:47:03

I think you could see it closer to 45

00:47:05

one day. But if it lived in the 50s,

00:47:07

that that would be the sign of a healthy

00:47:09

program. Now,

00:47:11

here's what's interesting.

00:47:13

>> It is a lot. But here's what's

00:47:14

interesting. Like you grew up on Texas,

00:47:16

right? Florida State has the state of

00:47:19

Florida. University of Georgia should

00:47:21

never really be they should never really

00:47:24

be flourishing in the portal because

00:47:25

they have the state of Georgia at their

00:47:26

back

00:47:27

>> where they are. Right. Right.

00:47:28

>> Indiana not so much.

00:47:30

>> Yeah. Right.

00:47:31

>> Miss under like high high amount of

00:47:33

talent but still an underpop populated

00:47:35

state.

00:47:36

So

00:47:38

I'm curious how long you can sustain

00:47:40

with a portal dominant strategy. And

00:47:43

unfortunately the answer is we don't

00:47:44

know because we only have about four

00:47:46

years worth of real data here. What I

00:47:48

can tell you emphatically and like is

00:47:50

that you can go far with a portal team.

00:47:52

You can go very far with a portal team

00:47:54

for sure.

00:47:56

>> I asked a question that even less status

00:47:58

based on just because I've been hearing

00:47:59

with Signetti and and what he's done

00:48:01

there and the fact that Moses is

00:48:03

probably going to be the number one

00:48:04

pick.

00:48:04

>> Yeah. Would the Raiders would there be

00:48:07

any intrigue or or or thought that like

00:48:09

well let's keep this very successful

00:48:11

kind of combo together.

00:48:14

Would they ever consider him for a

00:48:17

coaching position?

00:48:18

>> I based again on the assumption that

00:48:20

they are taking Mendoza with the number

00:48:22

one pick is

00:48:22

>> all indications tell me that Signetti

00:48:24

doesn't want to go to the pros that he's

00:48:27

happy where he is. Um I think Signetti

00:48:31

is mindful enough that he's found a

00:48:33

situation where they're going to build

00:48:34

him a statue regardless.

00:48:36

Um, he's now top five compensation, I

00:48:41

think, currently. If you could just go

00:48:42

by average annual value, like it's a

00:48:44

hockey contract, like AAV, I think with

00:48:46

bonuses and everything else, he's he's

00:48:48

in the top five.

00:48:51

I don't see him moving off of that

00:48:53

position anytime soon. And if I'm an NFL

00:48:56

GM, I would question the recency of it

00:49:00

all. Like, I would need I would want to

00:49:01

see more more information. The only

00:49:04

person that agents talk to me about as

00:49:07

the sort of uh

00:49:11

how would I describe this? The only

00:49:12

candidate right now on the co on the

00:49:14

college side that agents have said would

00:49:15

be a no-brainer on the NFL side is still

00:49:18

Marcus Freeman. But he has taken his

00:49:20

name out of this cycle and I think it'll

00:49:22

be an annual thing from here on out

00:49:24

where Freeman will probably have to

00:49:26

speak on whether or not he's interested

00:49:28

each cycle as long as they keep winning.

00:49:30

So, um, Signetti, I feel like would

00:49:33

probably stay in the college game. Um,

00:49:36

and then, you know, I I could see maybe

00:49:38

a Dan Lanning one day, but not anytime

00:49:40

soon.

00:49:42

>> Don't you wish Bobby Knight was still

00:49:43

around so he could go rebel in the old

00:49:45

schoolness of Kurt Signetti at his

00:49:47

university?

00:49:48

>> I think those two would get along great,

00:49:50

>> wouldn't they, though? So, I I wasn't

00:49:52

paying attention when they hired him.

00:49:53

Can do you can you try to somehow get

00:49:55

objectively back to that moment and talk

00:49:58

about the cons consensus when it

00:50:01

happened? I mean college football

00:50:02

coaches I think that's one of the

00:50:03

toughest hiring decisions possible. The

00:50:05

different things they have to be good

00:50:06

at. It's just absurd. It's it's it's

00:50:09

really tough to get this right. How was

00:50:11

that hire evaluated at the time?

00:50:14

>> Forgive me for my Pennsylvania

00:50:16

geography.

00:50:17

Where is IUP at?

00:50:20

IUP. Um, I don't even know. Indiana

00:50:23

versus Pennsylvania. Shane, do you have

00:50:25

any idea? I don't know.

00:50:26

>> Not in the Philadelphia area. Not Not

00:50:30

Not Eastern P.

00:50:31

>> Yes.

00:50:32

>> All right. I'm now looking it up because

00:50:34

it is Oh, sorry. It's in Indiana,

00:50:36

Pennsylvania.

00:50:37

>> I couldn't tell you where that is.

00:50:39

>> All right. I'm still Oh, okay.

00:50:41

>> Indiana, I would think. Right.

00:50:42

>> We're on the west side. I just I just

00:50:44

found it. We're on the We're We're on

00:50:45

the west side. We're We're much closer

00:50:46

to Pittsburgh. Okay. We're in um yeah,

00:50:50

that's the middle of nowhere. I know

00:50:52

that. Um because as a sports writer

00:50:54

going to Penn State for many years, I I

00:50:56

was I've always people have described uh

00:50:58

Pennsylvania as Pittsburgh on one side,

00:51:01

Philadelphia on the other, and Arkansas

00:51:02

in the middle. Um which is a Southerner.

00:51:04

I can tell that joke.

00:51:06

IUP is where he started his head

00:51:08

coaching career.

00:51:09

>> Okay.

00:51:10

>> He was on the Sabbin, he was on the

00:51:12

initial Sabin Alabama staff.

00:51:14

Uh I want to say just for one season.

00:51:17

Okay.

00:51:18

>> So, it was Yeah, he's Sabin Tree, but I

00:51:22

really wouldn't call him that.

00:51:23

>> Yeah.

00:51:24

>> Um,

00:51:26

he doesn't have a lot in common

00:51:28

structurally with with like, you know,

00:51:30

he's daer.

00:51:32

He makes, you know, he he sort of stares

00:51:34

down media in a similar way. Um,

00:51:37

structurally, he doesn't have a ton in

00:51:39

common with Sabin, honestly. So I I I

00:51:40

would be I I I would feel hesitant to

00:51:42

call him a saving tree. But in 2011, he

00:51:45

starts his head coaching career at IUP,

00:51:47

which is why I asked that. Builds a a

00:51:50

winner there, goes to Elon, which is a a

00:51:52

CIA team in South Carolina,

00:51:55

and then jumps up and gets the James

00:51:57

Madison job as the transition head

00:51:59

coach, meaning that James Madison was

00:52:01

going from FCS to FBS. That is an First

00:52:05

off, let me say this.

00:52:07

Almost every coach I've ever known who

00:52:09

was the sitting head coach of an FCS

00:52:11

team when they move up knows that they

00:52:13

are a dead man walking. It's incredibly

00:52:16

hard to lead a transition and program.

00:52:18

And we can get into it another time. He

00:52:20

not only led it, but succeeded more so

00:52:23

at JMU in the two years that they were a

00:52:25

Sunbelt member at the FBS level. Of

00:52:27

course, in 23 he goes 11 and one. They

00:52:29

start to make kind of noise nationally.

00:52:31

James Madison also to Sig's credit

00:52:36

and I guess this is very similar to

00:52:38

Sabin he's very mindful of where he

00:52:41

jumps and resource he's not he has not

00:52:45

chased helmets in the sense of looking

00:52:46

for the just looking for a bigger job

00:52:50

because James Madison saved for years

00:52:54

and fundraised for years and almost

00:52:56

became too big for the FCS. You ever

00:52:59

gone down I 81 in Virginia and seen that

00:53:01

football stadium from the interstate? It

00:53:03

doesn't look like you're in the FCS.

00:53:05

>> Okay.

00:53:05

>> They were from a facilities fundraising,

00:53:07

from an enrollment, from all the things

00:53:09

standpoint, you know, a lot of teams

00:53:11

move up to the FBS and kind of mortgage

00:53:13

it. They kind of like kind of just like

00:53:15

like lend it out and figure out how to

00:53:17

pay for it later. This this was a

00:53:19

program that was so ready that they

00:53:22

dominated right away. And Signetti was

00:53:26

again talent evaluating and recruiting

00:53:28

inside the margins of the DMV zone in

00:53:31

the Carolinas where you're you're not

00:53:33

the first pig to that trough if you're

00:53:35

at James Madison, but consistently

00:53:37

evaluating at a high level. And so his

00:53:40

last three years he's 12 wins and then

00:53:42

eight wins on the transition, 11 wins.

00:53:45

>> Absurd. It's absurd transition.

00:53:47

>> Here's the deal though. So you're

00:53:49

Indiana and you are historically awful.

00:53:52

Morbent, right? just awful losing at one

00:53:54

point the lossiest program in FBS

00:53:56

history.

00:53:58

What appealed to Indiana about Signetti

00:54:01

was the development culture and the

00:54:03

consistency.

00:54:04

>> That's interesting.

00:54:05

>> What appealed to Signetti about Indiana

00:54:08

was that he saw it in the room. I know

00:54:12

like I'm sure you guys get tired of

00:54:13

hearing about like Michael Lewis

00:54:14

references, but it was very much that he

00:54:17

>> We're here for we're here for the

00:54:18

Michael Lewis reference.

00:54:18

>> Okay. He saw the market.

00:54:22

He's I mean it is a little bit like the

00:54:24

first act of the big short where he saw

00:54:25

where the market was going and you know

00:54:28

that the big short's not a great comp

00:54:30

because that's more about betting

00:54:31

against the market. He didn't bet

00:54:32

against the market. He actually he

00:54:34

actually got to the market so much

00:54:37

faster than some of the Big 10 and SEC

00:54:40

peers that he's now beating. That's a

00:54:42

huge component of it. But there was an

00:54:44

immediate

00:54:45

>> saying what you're saying is the market

00:54:46

is the portal the new world that we're

00:54:48

living in.

00:54:49

>> But also the ability to pay for it.

00:54:50

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

00:54:52

>> So, there's this beautiful moment that

00:54:54

happens where someone has correctly

00:54:55

identified a coming trend and then they

00:54:57

go and they find the they find the the

00:54:59

right partnered

00:55:01

undervalued asset that's going to be

00:55:03

differently valued if it's

00:55:05

>> Yeah.

00:55:06

>> And what's and what's historically known

00:55:08

about IU? Okay. Bad football. They have

00:55:10

a great business school and they're

00:55:12

chaka block with alumni looking to spend

00:55:14

money. All right.

00:55:15

>> Why is that? That part I didn't know.

00:55:16

That's and I've heard that they're big

00:55:18

spenders in the NIO world. But I

00:55:19

wouldn't have known that even with the

00:55:21

good business school. I wouldn't have kn

00:55:22

I think first honestly basketball then I

00:55:23

think music in business school probably

00:55:26

third.

00:55:27

>> My my co-host on Yahoo Ross Dinger he's

00:55:29

reported this out before but basically

00:55:31

the estimation of TV and TV's God to

00:55:34

college is that basketball is worth

00:55:37

something like 10 or 15% of your TV

00:55:39

value. And so to go back to that that

00:55:42

moment that great moment of kismet when

00:55:44

signetti meet met Indiana's leadership

00:55:47

had become increasingly aware of we're

00:55:49

never going to be done with realignment

00:55:50

we're going to find a super league one

00:55:52

day and Indiana right now is a historic

00:55:56

basketball power emphasis on the

00:55:58

historic right what else did they offer

00:56:01

and what where else is there is there

00:56:04

value in the current market so there was

00:56:06

this flood of emphasis to go into

00:56:08

football

00:56:10

from the university, from the donors who

00:56:12

wrote the checks, from the athletic

00:56:14

department, and then from a coach who

00:56:16

said, "Hey, not only, keep in mind,

00:56:18

guys, there were a lot of coaches that

00:56:20

were protesting this concept." Dabau

00:56:22

Sweeney, remember that?

00:56:24

>> Yeah.

00:56:24

>> How's Dabo doing?

00:56:26

>> So, there were a lot of coaches that

00:56:27

said, "I don't want any part of this."

00:56:29

And what he said was, "If you can fund

00:56:32

this at the highest level,

00:56:35

I can work this system." Then they had

00:56:38

the beautiful benefit of being a Trojan

00:56:39

horse last year.

00:56:42

And so that kind of takes us now to the

00:56:43

season. You know, we talked about this

00:56:45

on the show the other day.

00:56:48

I don't think anybody took this team

00:56:49

seriously until they

00:56:52

probably until they beat Oregon the

00:56:53

first time this year. Even last year,

00:56:55

the way the the way in which they lost

00:56:57

to a really hot, really talented Notre

00:56:59

Dame team, everyone thought,

00:57:02

>> "Yep,

00:57:03

>> BS light schedule. Big 10 doesn't know

00:57:06

what it's doing. They barfed up this

00:57:08

undefeated team because they don't have

00:57:10

enough quality middle class programs.

00:57:13

There's one thing I'd actually like to

00:57:14

talk to you guys about.

00:57:17

And I don't know how you figure out how

00:57:18

to do this with a number, but I would

00:57:20

love to because Indiana is representing

00:57:23

a change here, but I think the Big 10 is

00:57:24

on the cusp of changing this entire

00:57:27

overall narrative. And I think and I

00:57:30

mean I'm changing the subject here a

00:57:32

little bit, but I think Indiana if if

00:57:33

Indiana's hoisting the national

00:57:35

championship in two weeks, we're going

00:57:38

to reverse engineer this season. And I

00:57:40

think what we're going to see is we have

00:57:43

terminally

00:57:45

in our bias as a southern driven sport

00:57:47

for 20 years given the benefit of the

00:57:50

doubt to programs who no longer deserve

00:57:52

it. And we're going to have to like

00:57:54

admit this publicly and then work it

00:57:55

back. And that's going to be really hard

00:57:56

for some people in the media. So, what

00:57:58

I'm talking about is

00:58:00

the total dismantling of Alabama. All

00:58:03

right. When selection

00:58:05

>> That's a moment. That's a moment.

00:58:06

>> When Selection Sunday came around,

00:58:09

every pundant, even my guy, even my

00:58:11

co-hosts who know a ton about the sport,

00:58:13

and I just said, why? And I'm not trying

00:58:15

to make myself out like I knew, but I

00:58:16

just said, why do we have to we h we

00:58:19

have to assume that the two teams that

00:58:21

make the SEC championship must be

00:58:22

included in the 12 team format. And

00:58:24

everyone said, well, you can't punish

00:58:26

them for going to Atlanta and losing.

00:58:27

And I said, "Well, what if they suck?

00:58:29

What if this is just another opportunity

00:58:30

to show that their resume is weak?" And

00:58:34

so Alabama gets the benefit of the

00:58:35

doubt. They go in, they kind of squeak

00:58:37

past an Oklahoma team that didn't look

00:58:38

that great either. And then Indiana

00:58:40

shows that they are a full world away

00:58:43

from actual title contender. And what's

00:58:46

interesting to me now is to look at this

00:58:47

Final Four game and to look at the team

00:58:50

that brought both of these two schools

00:58:52

to their knees, which was Iowa. And that

00:58:55

Iowa team was probably one win away.

00:58:58

Now, they didn't get it. They didn't

00:58:59

beat USC, but had that Iowa team been a

00:59:02

true nine- win contender going into

00:59:05

selection Sunday, I don't think that

00:59:06

they could have beaten out an Alabama.

00:59:08

We already know that Alabama beat out a

00:59:10

Notre Dame team that they're not as good

00:59:12

as. This SEC bias thing, and I'm talking

00:59:16

to you from inside the Death Star, okay?

00:59:19

uh this this SEC bias thing. I think

00:59:22

some serious work needs to be done

00:59:25

analytically in the in the numbers world

00:59:27

in the in the world of the quantitives

00:59:29

to somehow sus out and explain why I

00:59:32

think it's baked into the preseason

00:59:34

rankings. I think television plays a

00:59:36

role in this and I think by the time we

00:59:38

start with the selection committee in

00:59:40

early November, we've already kind of

00:59:42

kind of calcified our perception of some

00:59:45

of these schools. And I think it's

00:59:46

incorrect. And I like I think Illinois

00:59:49

hurts for this. I think Iowa hurts for

00:59:51

this. I think the Big 10 hurts.

00:59:54

>> I I said it's a it's a worthy topic and

00:59:57

and and we should take it up. We should

00:59:59

take it up sometime over the next 12

01:00:01

months. Um I I push back on one

01:00:06

particular dimension and that is the

01:00:08

depth of the SEC versus the depth of the

01:00:10

Big 10. And so whenever you start

01:00:12

bringing Illinois into the conversation,

01:00:14

I start

01:00:14

>> start wanting to jump in because

01:00:18

>> what's true is that the numbers this

01:00:20

year, Stephen, and this is actually

01:00:21

something you you were talking a minute

01:00:22

ago about how people weren't buying

01:00:25

Indiana until they beat Oregon this year

01:00:27

because of the experience last year, the

01:00:29

numbers were saying Indiana. And I was

01:00:31

having the hardest time believing like

01:00:33

Indiana was at the top from like

01:00:35

mid-season on. It's like the number one

01:00:37

team in college Indiana. And I was like,

01:00:39

really, really, really? It's like that's

01:00:42

it was one of these places where

01:00:43

analytics, one of the good analytics

01:00:46

show you things a few weeks before the

01:00:48

rest of the world sees them. And power

01:00:50

rankings were showing this. But let me

01:00:51

just finish real quickly. Indiana and

01:00:53

Ohio State have been top above the top

01:00:57

of the SEC all season long, more or

01:00:59

less, but then like the next eight teams

01:01:01

are SEC teams and just the variance on

01:01:04

the Big 10 is so much broader. And that

01:01:06

means that making it through that

01:01:08

nineame schedule, it's only been eight

01:01:09

game, but it's about to be nine game in

01:01:11

the SEC is going to be a loss generating

01:01:14

proposition. And so I'm sympathetic.

01:01:16

>> Oh, I like that terminology.

01:01:18

>> I'm I'm an insider now being a long run

01:01:20

person, but like I I I'm going to be

01:01:22

sympathetic to the to the three loss SEC

01:01:25

teams because of the rigor of the

01:01:26

schedule that they

01:01:27

>> Well, I I think it's it's a couple

01:01:28

things. One, I just want to I was going

01:01:30

to mention this. Anytime Connelly when

01:01:33

he's putting the numbers together and it

01:01:35

spits him back out and he's getting

01:01:36

these weird when he's getting these

01:01:38

results that the public won't accept

01:01:39

yet. I always love it when Connor and I

01:01:41

talking to him about it because you just

01:01:42

get this exhausted sigh because he

01:01:44

knows,

01:01:46

you know, people still think

01:01:47

quantitative that they think that like

01:01:49

Bill sat up and made this.

01:01:50

>> Yeah.

01:01:51

>> You know, like he's like, I you know

01:01:52

what, I'm putting Indiana number one

01:01:54

this week. screw every and he'll have

01:01:56

those weeks where he gets the numbers

01:01:57

back and he's just like, "Oh god,

01:01:59

>> I got to explain these numbers to the

01:02:01

world."

01:02:01

>> Um, which is why he's kind of started

01:02:03

othering the ranking and like sort of

01:02:05

turning the ranking sentient and just

01:02:07

saying like the I don't agree with the

01:02:09

rank, but this is what SP told me this

01:02:11

week. Um, I had a really interesting

01:02:13

conversation for an offseason piece I

01:02:14

was doing a year ago with a recruiting

01:02:16

analyst named Steve uh Wilfong. He works

01:02:19

for Onree. He's been doing it for a

01:02:20

really long time. And I think uh

01:02:22

recruiting analyst is a dubious term.

01:02:25

You know, it's got a kind of like a

01:02:26

Vegas sheen about it. And I don't mean,

01:02:28

you know, like it's just

01:02:31

um

01:02:33

>> it's really just a sports writing beat

01:02:34

at this point, right? I mean, more

01:02:36

>> No kidding. No kidding. Gosh. But I

01:02:38

digress. Uh but but Steve is a really

01:02:40

wellrespected guy. He's been doing it

01:02:41

for a long time. And one of the sort of

01:02:43

big futures bets in college football is

01:02:45

that the Illinois, Ias, etc., and

01:02:47

Indiana, which is just sort of way above

01:02:49

schedule, way past schedule, ahead of

01:02:51

schedule is what I should say. Um, are

01:02:54

going to establish a more respectable

01:02:57

Big 10 middle class. And so

01:03:01

to see the Alabama results

01:03:04

and to see some of the things that like,

01:03:06

you know, to see

01:03:08

last year's data set where it just felt

01:03:11

like the SEC was going to lose their

01:03:12

mind because SMU got in, but then South

01:03:16

Carolina loses a bowl and Alabama loses

01:03:17

a bowl. And I know everybody says, well,

01:03:18

it's because of the optouts or whatever.

01:03:20

We are we are continuing to see an SEC

01:03:22

product that yes has the robust middle

01:03:26

and week after week it's like the uh

01:03:28

Bruce Feldman body blow theory right is

01:03:31

like you know if you play that week

01:03:32

after week after week you're going to

01:03:33

start to sort of wear down or you know

01:03:35

the cream rises

01:03:37

but I don't know if they're ever like I

01:03:39

I I don't know what's exceptional

01:03:41

anymore in the SEC because I'm going to

01:03:43

tell you this as an alumni of the one

01:03:45

team left is that the best team in the

01:03:48

SEC See

01:03:49

>> right

01:03:51

>> like

01:03:51

>> right well I mean when Chand when he

01:03:54

plays like he did last weekend I mean

01:03:56

>> quite possibly

01:03:57

>> Texas is going to be a great case study

01:03:59

next year specifically it's funny to go

01:04:02

back to my 8-year-old the worst thing is

01:04:04

he's really math strong he's a Texas fan

01:04:06

so he's incredibly literal and so it

01:04:09

does not make sense to him everything is

01:04:11

black and white and he goes wait Texas

01:04:13

has a ton of money you told me that I

01:04:14

was like oh yeah Texas yeah but Texas

01:04:16

got a lot of alumni they spend a lot of

01:04:17

money he goes Well, then they should be

01:04:19

in the playoffs. And I go, "Hey, man." I

01:04:20

said, "Welcome to the quandry that is

01:04:22

Texas athletic sometimes." I was like,

01:04:24

it it doesn't always sus out that way

01:04:26

or&m would have 10 national titles.

01:04:29

Texas is going to be a fascinating case

01:04:30

study next year because we can now start

01:04:32

to build a referendum on, all right, I

01:04:34

know why the TV revenue side of this

01:04:36

made sense for y'all in Austin. I get

01:04:38

that, right? You're going to make a ton

01:04:40

of money on TV, but think about all

01:04:43

those years Oklahoma kind of got to like

01:04:45

moonwalk into the 14 playoffs. 100%

01:04:48

100%.

01:04:48

>> So, is this going to be a sustainable

01:04:51

product if you jam these conferences

01:04:53

filled with contenders and they eat each

01:04:54

other alive?

01:04:55

>> God knows it's going to I mean, we can

01:04:57

argue this all night and then they're

01:04:58

going to change it again in a couple of

01:05:00

years. But what's what's true is that

01:05:02

they felt like it was a necessary move

01:05:04

because SEC was truly separating from

01:05:07

the rest of the world and you were

01:05:08

losing talent. If you look at what Texas

01:05:10

A&M's recruiting rankings did in like

01:05:13

the 10 years before they joined the SEC

01:05:15

and then the 10 years after, it's just

01:05:17

extraordinary. And Texas was at a

01:05:19

disadvantage because players wanted to

01:05:21

play in the SEC. But that was before NIL

01:05:23

and Portal. And now it's really just

01:05:25

leveled the playing field. people are

01:05:27

willing to go to love or um

01:05:30

>> I would love to combine

01:05:32

>> like to to write a p to write a some

01:05:34

like a dissertation or something on this

01:05:35

that's half analytical and half social

01:05:38

science because I think that Katrina in

01:05:41

Texas

01:05:43

>> backdoored an SEC expansion in the most

01:05:45

miserable of human experiences obviously

01:05:48

but the volume of relocation and the

01:05:50

anecdotal evidence I have of the 10

01:05:52

years after Katrina

01:05:54

>> of kids families that were from

01:05:57

Louisiana and the Gulf Coast who

01:05:59

migrated into Texas and then it allowed

01:06:02

those brands to go into Texas and

01:06:04

recruit with a little bit more

01:06:05

familiarity. It almost made it mandatory

01:06:08

like you're saying when the decision

01:06:10

came for the Red River Schools that the

01:06:12

world was moving east. It's very

01:06:14

fascinating to me. Now financially you

01:06:16

can't argue it but you know by the way

01:06:19

as I say this and maybe the next time

01:06:20

I'm on the show this will be settled. I

01:06:23

think according to Ross it will be this

01:06:26

playoff will expand. The next time we

01:06:27

play this playoff there will be at least

01:06:29

14 teams. And if I'm betting right now,

01:06:32

I'm saying that it's probably going to

01:06:33

be 16.

01:06:35

>> I don't love that either.

01:06:37

>> Yeah, that's a that's a that's another

01:06:40

whole frontier here that's moving. Um

01:06:42

all right, let's save it for the next

01:06:44

time, Steve. Yes, sir.

01:06:45

>> Um greatly appreciate you.

01:06:48

>> Got it. Got the deep dive we're hoping

01:06:50

for on college football and come away.

01:06:52

thinking about it a little bit

01:06:53

differently. Greatly appreciate it. I

01:06:55

hope for I have to tell you the two

01:06:56

stories we've talked about. I mean, Miss

01:06:58

and Indiana, it will be glorious if

01:07:00

that's the matchup because as far as I'm

01:07:02

concerned, like there's just either one

01:07:04

of them is one of the most remarkable

01:07:05

stories in decades. And so, we'll see.

01:07:08

We'll probably end up with Miami or so

01:07:11

depressing.

01:07:12

>> I I would love for people to embrace

01:07:14

parody. Like I I was at the FCS national

01:07:17

title game last night here in Nashville,

01:07:19

Montana State, Illinois State. It was an

01:07:20

amazing game. There was no North Dakota

01:07:22

State. There was no 62 to nothing win

01:07:24

like we've seen for the last 15 years at

01:07:26

that level.

01:07:26

>> Okay.

01:07:27

>> The portal has created so much parody at

01:07:29

every level of the sport that I think

01:07:30

parody is like the NFL tells us, right?

01:07:33

We we what what do we

01:07:34

>> right?

01:07:35

>> We like parody. We like it. So, I'm

01:07:37

hoping college football learns to

01:07:39

embrace it.

01:07:40

>> I I I I think they will. I think this is

01:07:42

this this final four alone is a great

01:07:44

case for it. All right, guys. You can

01:07:46

catch Stephen Godfrey many places. Um he

01:07:49

is a writer for Yahoo Sports and the

01:07:52

Washington Post. You can catch his

01:07:54

production company's podcast, Phantom

01:07:56

Island. You can catch him on the College

01:07:58

Football Inquirer podcast with Staples

01:08:00

and Dinger. One of the great writers on

01:08:02

college football. Thanks for the time,

01:08:03

Stephen. Always good to visit with you.

01:08:05

>> Thank you guys so much.

01:08:06

>> Absolutely. Take care for the whole team

01:08:09

here. We've lost Shane Jensen there at

01:08:11

the very end for Eric Bradlo and Audi

01:08:12

Winer and Absentia for Dion Simpkins

01:08:15

making this thing happen. Marissa,

01:08:17

Raina, D Patel, the whole team. And for

01:08:19

you guys, the listeners, thanks for

01:08:21

being here. Come back and join us next

01:08:22

time. Between now and then, enjoy your

01:08:25

sports.

Episode Highlights

NFL Playoff Predictions
The hosts analyze the unpredictable playoff landscape and potential matchups.
“The NFL seems the most wide open I've personally experienced.”
@ 03m 10s
January 12, 2026
Seattle's Surprising Performance
Seth Walder discusses the unexpected success of the Seattle Seahawks this season.
“Seattle is the most surprising team.”
@ 05m 33s
January 12, 2026
Predictive Analytics in Football
Exploring how real-time data predicts blitz probabilities and game strategies.
“I found that to be really cool.”
@ 18m 56s
January 12, 2026
The Excitement of Game Management
Seth Walder discusses his role as a decision analyst during NFL broadcasts.
“It’s been great fun.”
@ 20m 05s
January 12, 2026
The Atmosphere at Red River
A discussion on the unique experience of attending the Red River rivalry game.
“It’s such a forced visual because it’s crowded.”
@ 30m 31s
January 12, 2026
Lane's Reality Star Essence
Lane is compared to a reality star, known for stirring up drama.
“Lane's essence, if you will.”
@ 36m 07s
January 12, 2026
Enjoying Football Without Stakes
The joy of watching games without emotional investment is discussed.
“It's easier to watch those games where you don't care.”
@ 36m 41s
January 12, 2026
Turnovers Will Decide the Game
The importance of quarterback decisions and turnovers is emphasized for the upcoming game.
“I think the game is going to rely on turnovers from the quarterback position.”
@ 40m 28s
January 12, 2026
Success with Portal Teams
The effectiveness of teams using transfer portals is highlighted.
“You can go far with a portal team.”
@ 47m 52s
January 12, 2026
Michael Lewis Reference
The discussion turns to Michael Lewis and market insights in sports.
“We're here for the Michael Lewis reference.”
@ 54m 17s
January 12, 2026
Funding the System
A coach believes that with the right funding, success can be achieved.
“If you can fund this at the highest level, I can work this system.”
@ 56m 32s
January 12, 2026
Texas Athletics Quandary
The complexities of Texas athletics are highlighted in a humorous exchange.
“Welcome to the quandary that is Texas athletics sometimes.”
@ 01h 04m 22s
January 12, 2026

Episode Quotes

Seattle is the most surprising team.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
I found that to be really cool.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
This was like a special effect because it’s crowded.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
I think the game is going to rely on turnovers from the quarterback position.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
It's absurd transition.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power
Welcome to the quandary that is Texas athletics sometimes.
Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power

Key Moments

Back to Routine01:07
Game Management20:05
Red River Rivalry30:31
Exceptional Talent31:26
Lane's Drama36:07
Enjoyable Football36:22
Quarterback Decisions40:28
Texas Quandary1:04:22

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

NFL Analytics Preview, QB Forecasts, and Team Rankings for 2025

August 05, 2025

01:05:14

NFL Analytics Preview, QB Forecasts, and Team Rankings for 2025

Bill Connelly on College Football Chaos, Coaching Carousel, and Predicting the Future of the Game

October 31, 2025

59:01

Bill Connelly on College Football Chaos, Coaching Carousel, and Predicting the Future of the Game

When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs

January 15, 2026

01:10:28

When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs

NFL Week 1 Review: Fourth Down Decisions, Super Bowl Odds, and Kickoff Returns

September 19, 2025

01:03:57

NFL Week 1 Review: Fourth Down Decisions, Super Bowl Odds, and Kickoff Returns

Baseball Analytics, NFL Parity, and College Football Playoff Odds

November 16, 2025

01:01:01

Baseball Analytics, NFL Parity, and College Football Playoff Odds

Inside College Football’s Data-Driven Evolution and Decision-Making

January 22, 2026

01:10:36

Inside College Football’s Data-Driven Evolution and Decision-Making

NFL Week 3 Analytics Insights and MLB Home Run Chase & Playoff Outlook

September 18, 2025

01:01:26

NFL Week 3 Analytics Insights and MLB Home Run Chase & Playoff Outlook

From Masters Victory to Motion Data: Golf’s Analytical Evolution

April 16, 2026

01:01:58

From Masters Victory to Motion Data: Golf’s Analytical Evolution

Baseball’s Hall of Fame Debate Is Changing

May 27, 2026

59:35

Baseball’s Hall of Fame Debate Is Changing

Rethinking Tennis Strategy Through Data and Coachability

February 12, 2026

01:07:36

Rethinking Tennis Strategy Through Data and Coachability

The Math Behind Sports Rankings and Golf Analytics

May 07, 2026

01:08:01

The Math Behind Sports Rankings and Golf Analytics

How Analytics Are Changing the Game in College Football

September 16, 2025

01:00:12

How Analytics Are Changing the Game in College Football