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I don't know where i saw the
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notice that you guys were putting
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together this program it was on one of
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the standard outlets maybe Wall Street
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Journal maybe Bloomberg but I read an
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article that you were putting together
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this forecasting tournament and that you
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were trying to find out what it is makes
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a good forecaster and I feel like I owe
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the system for so many years I've been
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doing research and I've relied on other
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people to contribute to that research
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and they have selflessly and so I'm a
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chronic volunteer as well when somebody
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says I need your help to do my research
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I volunteer for instance the new york
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blood center contacted me and said
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you're not allowed to give blood but
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we've got this research program and
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blood donation will you come in and
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donate a pint of blood every month so we
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can see what happens so I did that just
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to pay back the system so i'm paying
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back the system by being in the good
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judgment project
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I think that I make connections for
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instance I couldn't figure out why Putin
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was in Syria none of the explanations
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that people gave the talking heads made
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any sense to me Syria does not a join
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Russia the Ukraine does Syria is of no
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strategic importance to Putin why is he
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in Syria there was just no reason all of
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this business about how he couldn't let
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one of his henchmen down or else all the
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other henchmen would feel insecure just
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didn't buy that I wanted to make sense
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of that and all of a sudden I remembered
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something and that is that Putin is
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building up the bread Russian fleet in
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the Mediterranean but they don't have a
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home port in the Mediterranean so they
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have to go all the way back to Russia
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and the Black Sea to get a home port
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well where is Putin landing his troops
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next to the port of Latakia which is a
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major port on the Mediterranean so
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perhaps what Putin wants is a deal with
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Assad for a 50-year lease on the port of
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Latakia now that to me makes sense that
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would explain why Putin is in Syria it
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accomplishes a strategic thing for him
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it gives him a port for his
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Mediterranean fleet so I think that's
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probably part of the reason why I was
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successful I feel uncomfortable saying
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successful because I don't feel
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successful you tell me I was successful
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I don't feel successful it I that's part
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of the modus operandi that I go through
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is I I see disparate things and I try to
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make sense of them for instance another
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thing when the third Kim took over North
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Korea all of a sudden there was a huge
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round of executions including his own
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uncle he blew his uncle up with it
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aircraft anti-aircraft gun things were
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then fairly quiet and then another big
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round of executions I couldn't figure
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out why he was executing all these
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people
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I contacted somebody who was an expert
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in North Korean relations and I said
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while the executions he said well
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they've been more than you know they
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just not publicized have been to big
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rounds I thought what's going on here
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and then I saw something that said Kim
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has not yet traveled outside of North
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Korea not even to Beijing to visit his
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sponsors we don't know when Kim's going
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to travel outside of North Korea all of
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a sudden you put the two together
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perhaps the guys afraid that if he
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leaves the country he won't be able to
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come back that there'll be a coup in his
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absence and he's taking care of
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everybody who might be involved in such
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a coup and in fact he's now due to go to
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Moscow I think in december so again
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trying to make sense out of something
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just looking around at where how things
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might fit together to make things make
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more sense than they would otherwise
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30 years ago a good friend of mine also
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named Barbara Barbara McClintock advised
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me over and over in our conversations
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that I should always questioned my
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fundamental assumptions my underlying
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assumptions and I think that's something
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that's been very important to me was
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Barbara's advice for instance a
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spacecraft just flew past jupiter and
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took a whole bunch of high-resolution
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pictures of Jupiter I'm sorry Pluto and
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took a whole bunch of high-resolution
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pictures of Pluto and son of a gun this
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4.5 billion year old planet is
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geologically active and everybody is
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absolutely floored the solar system is
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4.5 billion years old the planets are
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not supposed to be geologically active
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when they're the size of Pluto why is
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this so everybody's trying to figure out
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why 4.5 billion year old Pluto is by
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geologically active they're talking
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about more missions to Pluto have
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hundred-million-dollar missions
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half-billion-dollar missions I'm certain
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that there are all sorts of young
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planetary scientists who are trying to
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figure out how they can start their
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careers by figuring out and making a
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name for themselves wipe loot Pluto is
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geologically active well what's the
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underlying assumption here the
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underlying assumption is that Pluto's
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4.5 billion years old what happens if
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Pluto isn't 4.5 billion years old what
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happens with Pluto is a good deal
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younger then in fact you expect it to be
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geologically active and there's no
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inconsistency here at all the
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inconsistency is that your fundamental
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assumption that Pluto is 4.5 billion
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years old was incorrect so I'd advise
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those young planetary scientists who are
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thinking about trying to explain how a
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4.5 billion year old celestial body
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could be geologically active to question
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whether or not it's really 4.5 billion
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years old there's another something else
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that gets a lot more attention and
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that's it ran for the last four to five
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years the entire economy of the world
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has
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in an uproar because all of the major
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nations have slapped an embargo on
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dealing with Iran because Iran is trying
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to build a nuclear weapon and they had
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to negotiate long and hard with Iran to
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negotiate I ran away from a posture
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where they could be capable of building
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the nuclear weapon that they were trying
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to build and this brought us a lot
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closer to allies like Saudi Arabia to
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whom we perhaps should not be close and
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it's caused no end to trouble throughout
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the entire world particularly the Middle
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East which is troubled enough well
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what's the underlying assumption here
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that Iran wants to build a nuclear
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weapon they kept saying that they didn't
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want to build a nuclear weapon why
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didn't we believe them well we have x
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y&z reasons why we didn't believe them
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but again it's a fundamental assumption
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the entire foreign policy in the Middle
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East of nearly the entire world was
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dictated by the underlying assumption
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that Iran wanted to build a nuclear
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device I personally wouldn't want to
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build a nuclear device I can't see why
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Iran would want a nuclear device nuclear
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bombs are so 20th century we've moved on
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I happen to think Iran didn't
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particularly want to build a nuclear
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bomb but everybody's fundamental
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assumption was that it did and I would
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go out on a limb and I'd say that even
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in spite of all the acrimony that we've
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had over Iran that it's quite possible
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that in 20 years Iran will be our
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closest ally in the Middle East and the
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reason for that is that Iran is the
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largest Persian nation on earth the
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United States is the second-largest
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Persian nation on earth and Canada is
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the fourth-largest Persian nation on
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earth there's a natural affinity there
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and as soon as that embargo is lifted
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the Persians are not going to start
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doing deals with the British or the
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Chinese or the Russians they're going to
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do business with their Persian American
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friends so I see business between Iran
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Persia and the United States
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particularly the Persian community
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building very quickly I think that could
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lead to good political relations as well
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that would be a major casualty of
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misunderstanding Iran's intentions with
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nuclear weapons
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I recommend that when you come to a new
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field about which you know nothing that
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you browse the literature talk to people
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if you can attend lectures if you can
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and listen for the totem words the words
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which either consciously or
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unconsciously people in the field give
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special meeting and I find that if you
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can figure out what those totem words
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are and then go away and figure out what
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they mean you'll find out at least one
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of the things that's very important to
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people in the field that they don't say
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is important to them necessarily but
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they give it importance by continually
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using these totem words or continually
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emphasizing them for instance last week
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I went to grand rounds at our regional
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hospital and there was a cardiologist
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giving a talk and he was giving a talk
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on the pharmaceutical management of
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cardiac patients who had circulatory
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problems problems with blockages
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problems leakages he would go through a
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series of example patients this patient
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comes in with these symptoms what do you
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do we immediately stent this patient how
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do we drug this patient for the stent
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we're going to use this compound and
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we're going to use this compound but
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we're going to stay away from that
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compound because it can cause bleeding
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and we don't want bleeding now this
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patient has got a partially occluded
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artery and is in a lot of pain we're
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going to give this patient warfarin
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because we need to dissolve that clot
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and prevent it from growing however
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we're not going to give this patient
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these other two drugs because they can
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lead to bleeding even worse than
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warfarin can lead to bleeding we give
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combinations of these drugs because it
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reduces bleeding bleeding this bleeding
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that what I came away from not knowing
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really that very much about how to treat
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cardiac patients was that if we can
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generalize from just this one talk
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what's most important
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is to keep the patient from bleeding no
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matter what you do and so if I was given
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a new drug and asked to predict whether
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or not it was going to be a success the
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first thing I look at is whether it
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causes uncontrolled bleeding or not what
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the likelihood is how it can be combined
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with other things all from a standpoint
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of does it cause bleeding now that
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doesn't give you the answer to how that
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new drug is going to do but it gives you
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a lead into it so that you can then
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begin to understand how things are going
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on so I'd say look for the totem words
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when you're reading an article look for
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the words that the author of the article
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seems to come back to over and over and
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then start by figuring out what those
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words mean
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I've been very insecure all my life for
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a variety of reasons and I never really
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thought very much of my own opinions I
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always figured well is the world crazy
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or is it me in the answer was I must be
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crazy I think the good judgment project
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has shown me that occasionally I'm right
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and other people are wrong which is not
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something that I expected going in I
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expected to be wrong all the time and
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curiously and I've seen this in Phil's
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book and I've heard it from other people
00:12:49
the things about which I was most wrong
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with the things I was supposed to know
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something about namely the medical
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questions so I think the good judgment
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project has given me a little bit of
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confidence in myself that I didn't have
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before I went into it
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you
