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Welcome to Wharton Moneyball. This week's show we'll be discussing all things analytics and sports. Um I'm
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Professor Audi Winer from the Wharton Schools Department of Statistics, Data Science, and I'm joined as usually with
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by Eric Bradlo, professor of marketing and statistics, Shane Jensen, professor of statistics, and hopefully we'll be
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joined by Cade Massie, um who is our regular host, and he's trying to come in
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right now. Um, and our show usually is in two parts. And we're going to begin
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with our interview. And we are delighted to welcome to our show, uh, Jane Levy. >> Levy.
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>> Jane Levy. Am I pronouncing it? >> It's Levy. There we go. I made an error
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at the right off the bat. Um, that's because I I I read your book, so I don't
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get to hear it pronounced properly. Um, so I'll give her a short bio about Jane.
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Jane is definitely um a baseball writer that I am well aware of, having read some of her previous books. I think I
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read three of the four previous ones, including The Big Fellow about Babe Ruth, um The Last Boy about Mickey
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Mantel and The End of America's Childhood, a story um that that's about Mickey Mantel and then Sandy Kofax, A
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Lefty's Legacy. Those are, you know, three amazing baseball players that were
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heroes to me my whole life and I read those three biographies. But most recently, um she has written the book,
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um Make Me Commissioner, I Know What's Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It.
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um which is just relatively recent recently released and I I went and got it almost right away and just devoured
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it um because these are topics that we have thought about greatly on our show Moneyball. We've talked about what's
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ailing baseball and analytics is something that runs um substantially in your as a theme throughout your book
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although not positively. Um, so we're in some sense bringing you into our our our
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layer here to see what you have to say about >> Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,
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wait. I >> I do say somewhere in there, you know, they're here to stay. They're not going
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away. The information is too good, too valuable, too irrefutable to get rid of, you know.
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>> Absolutely. Yes, you do. >> I do say all of that. What I also argue
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is that in ways that I don't think anybody has stopped to consider hereto for um they've
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what's the polite word destroyed the narratives that baseball used to be able
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to tell because they've so reoriented the priorities of the game and how it's
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played. So, you know, and I think that is part of the reason that fans have gone elsewhere for excitement. The fact
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of the matter is baseball's really exciting if you know what to look for. And if it isn't all three true outcomes,
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I couldn't believe I actually agreed with something Alex Rodriguez said when
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he's he said, "Home runs are boring." Yes, they're boring unless somebody
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brings them. the irony of that guy saying that by the way. >> Yeah. A guy who who has more than
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>> the guy who used it to hit a lot of home runs. >> So uh let's talk about this for a
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moment. Um so one of the things that this I think that's a good place to get
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started. I will say that you know all of us are deeply invested in analytics but
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we don't work for baseball teams and I don't think we individually are responsible for that. And in fact I have
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a lot of criticisms of the way analytics is used in baseball um because I think they miss the point in a lot of areas.
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But I just want to separate two aspects of analytics after reading your book. Um
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there's that I think our readers also deserve to understand the distinction.
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There's the techn technology side of analytics which has really changed the game. This is the the technologies all
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the bat path research the high-speed cameras the training programs that have made the pitchers so commonly hitting
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100 miles per hour. Um and that's impacting baseball I think more prominently than maybe any other sport.
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And then there's the analytic side, which is the strategy, the the player placement, the approaches, um, and of
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course the def the LA the big changes in the game, getting rid of bunting, the lowering of stealing, the defensive
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shifts, all these things. And of course, and it's affected, of course, evaluation. That's really what Moneyball
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was all about. How analytics has affected evaluation. So, let's take you through this um and and talk about how
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these things have affected baseball in your in your view. Well, I mean, I think it's killing it. I
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mean, and I don't mean that because I hate all Look, first of all, I can't
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add, multiply, subtract, or divide. Got a 320 on my math GRE when they still used to take it out of, you know, 800
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points. So, for me to have spent this much time trying to understand the math and following people around going, I
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have no idea what they're talking about. If I can't make it clear to readers, you
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know, it's the same issue as the analytics dudes in the baseball ops office trying to talk to players who
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have no idea what they're talking about and can't follow it. So, um I I I this
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is very idiosyncratic of me and and you know, maybe I'm wrong, but um there's a
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chapter a very long chapter in the middle of it um that's uh located at a beautiful maybe the most beautiful
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baseball field in America called Eldridge Park in Cape Cod where there are no seats. You just sit on the on a
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hillside and um volunteers come and bring their grills and make hot dogs, right? Um, it's it's everything that one
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would suppose baseball should be or was once. My kids used to be able to go out on that field between innings and catch
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fireflies and nobody was upset like, "Oh my god, what are they going to do to
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that gazillion dollar turf?" Um, so there is this idyllic portion of what baseball is thought to be, which I
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certainly have witnessed. But even that idol is has been significantly changed not just by analytics but p you know
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largely by analytics. I mean I said to the manager one day I you know MLB had gotten rid of the shift and he's still
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playing the shift. I said Kelly why what you you called what did the shift on? He
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goes yeah I want to win. Okay I get it. Um but what it's done in my view um and I think the most
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destructive part is the pitching. Um you know the the 100 mph um max heave style
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of pitching is not only dangerous for the guys who are doing it a percentage of whom have had double surgeries like
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Otani. I was about to write a piece that said Otani shouldn't pitch for the Los
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Angeles Dodgers. You know how many pictures they used this year? One of you probably knows.
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>> No. >> How many? Oh my god. They probably used over 20, I would guess.
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>> 47. >> 47. Oh my god. >> How many How many pitchers did they use
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in 19 in 1963 World Series? >> Seven. Probably >> four. >> Four.
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>> Areronowski had to come in relief of um Audrey. So um that in a nutshell is the
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difference between now and then. And I would argue that as an entertainment, it was a better game then. And virtually
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every old player thinks so. Um it it has been so con compacted, contracted, whatever, because of the
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three true outcomes, the same things happen over and over and over again. And when you get a guy like Jacob Young, the
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outfielder, um the gymnast for the Nationals, the only good thing any of them did all year, uh where he went to
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City Field and he brought a home run back over from center field and the ball drops out of his glove as he's coming
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back down to earth, right? And so what does he do? He kicks it and he kicks it into his glove and he makes the out and
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then he throws in. Great throat and and it's it's that's what's missing in
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baseball. It's you know Mookie bets with the wheel calling the wheel play because he didn't
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have a card index card in his hat. He was allowed to think use his instincts and his body the way he has been trained
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to use them. >> So Shane you have a you have a question? Well, so I mean I I guess my main kind
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of thought as I'm listening to this is um kind of like what would you kind of
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tang because I mean as you sort of said analytics are here to stay and it's not
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you I agree pitching has the the pitching as a narrative story story pitching has become more dehumanized I
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guess by our kind of conquest or or our our desire for efficiency. We've discovered that it's best to just
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have a whole slob of pitchers pitch two inn two times through the order and throw 100 miles an hour. But aside from
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I mean I I also lament kind of that going downhill but operation like act in terms of actionable recommendations are
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you kind of would you argue for like a rule change by baseball or I mean because teams you know teams aren't
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going to a subset of teams are always going to seek out that efficient uh that kind of efficiency. Um,
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yeah, I think they have to make and it's in pitching changes that that that I
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would make are are in the book, which apparently you haven't read. So, uh, >> I have I think the pitching staff,
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>> this is an opportunity to tell our listeners about it. >> Is I think the pitching staff needs to
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be completely reconfigured. They don't have enough arms. one um you know sitting in in a dugout with u Buck
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Shoalter or even Kevin Cash or you know um or Dusty and then they're trying to
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piece together okay where can I get another you know seven outs from now I can't ask him you know his arm's falling
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off no I can't ask him you know there forget strategy forget matchups it's
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just who can still lift their arm so they need more they need more arms and I could propose an NHL style healthy
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scratch list. Why should your number of pitchers, your 13 as it now is, include yesterday's starting or today's starting
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pitcher? You're not going to use them, right? I mean, >> wouldn't this Sorry, sorry to interrupt,
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but wouldn't this lead to more more like I thought we want, you know, I mean, in
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yesterday, you didn't have very many pitchers and you had to stretch them out
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and have these kind of like, you know, wouldn't that even more pitchers lead
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more starters or less starting >> impatient boys? one, you have three guys or maybe even
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four on this healthy scratch list who are, you know, the guys who are who are literally falling apart plus the plus
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the uh yesterday's starter. At the same time, you're you're a manager is allowed
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to pick only 11 of the his 15 or 16 pitchers, whichever we end up with, um to use on a given day. And he would base
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that on the opposition. He would base it on the health of his own pitchers, you know, and he would base it on analytics.
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Pick pick what which ones, you know, are in shape and which ones get which guys out best and that and nudge the game
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back towards having people go longer. There's a whole bunch of other rules in
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there um including um can't >> So Jay, I'm gonna I'm gonna just uh
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quickly comment. You did report that Theo Epstein in the book had recommended lowering the number of pitchers.
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>> He's for 11 >> to 11. The thinking that I my understanding of that the thinking of
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that is that if you only have 11 pitchers on your roster, >> your pitchers can't overburden their arm
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because they know they have to pitch many more innings. And the problem we have now is pitchers starting pitchers
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are going five innings and they know they're going five. And we know that and
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then or maybe six and that they they they overthrow and as a result you need 13 pitches to to to dominate. So you're
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actually proposing something that's like almost a hybrid where you you only have
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11. >> What I'm saying is look, you know, the relievers drop like flies, right?
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>> Yes. They're just they're not that good actually. >> They're not that good and they can only
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do one thing and and they're they're they're fungeible. One guy is the same
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as the next. And I have to say as a person of literature narrative, you know, the fact that you don't know, you
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know, who the guy is who's being called in, you might as well not have any numbers on their backs because they're
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all the same, right? You know, did was the game better when we had people like Mariano Rivera? I think so. I think it
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was more interesting. So yes, we have to nudge in whatever is the most healthy way starting pitching back to being like
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starting pitching. You may have noticed that Dave Roberts, famous for having hauled Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, and
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Tony Gonelin out of perfect games or no hitters. Um and there's there's another
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guy he pulled out strippling, right? um you know, let two pitchers go a complete
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game and Blake Snell eight innings. Why? Cuz all of his relief pitchers are dead.
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So, you know, the they have to start training them the way that old pitchers were trained. There's a reason that, you
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know, the Atlanta Braves back in the 90s, aside from that they weren't throwing Maxa 100 miles an hour, had the
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same pitchers on opening day roster and the end of the season roster. They didn't they were trained to throw more
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often, less hard. >> In fact, we we've had uh uh John Smoltz on the show telling us exactly that.
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Eric? >> Yeah. So Jane, um, just so you know, I'm a consider myself a baseball historian.
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Just so you know, I go to the Hall of Fame every year for my, uh, for the induction ceremony. So I love the
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history of baseball. >> Masel. >> Yeah. No, I I I it's the greatest gift
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ever given to me as a lifetime membership to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Um, my question to you was, um,
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I'll throw on a slight business school hat here. Um, if what you're saying is
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true, then owners like making money, why doesn't an owner, just takes one to
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say, "Look, we're not going to run the game in its boring way." Now, we're
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going to go back to the days where pitchers pitch longer. We're going to go back to the days where, as I always said
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to my kids, I've never, this is true. I' I've been to a thousand baseball games
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and I've never left one early, Jane, because you never know what you're going
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to see in baseball. Never. ever. But >> but now today you might know more often.
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>> Yeah. So why don't this is my point. Why doesn't somebody break the mold go back
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to the old days if you think by the way by the way that would include by the way
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three-hour games which appears most fans don't want now. Why doesn't do that?
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>> Not necessarily. And I think you're starting to see that happening you know
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out of desperation not out of brilliance. I mean, this postseason, you're seeing pitchers, starting
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pitchers go much longer. And you know, the ESPN guys, the day that I'm going to
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mess this up, Schlitler um went was sent back out to the to the mount at Yankee Stadium and for the eighth inning, there
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was a roar and it wasn't for what he had already done. It was for that he was
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being allowed to do what he could do. And that's the thing. I mean, the the the best story I can tell you, the
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funniest, you all must know Bill the Spaceman, Lee, who's my um new boyfriend. Um and um that's hyperbolic.
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Uh >> I was like, okay, >> I mean, might as well talk, I guess, is what we'd say at that point, right?
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>> But the day that uh that Dave Roberts pulled Kershaw out of his perfect game,
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and it was April 2022, he hadn't pitched much. his arm had been injured the, you
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know, the end of 2021, but he's mowing them down. His pitch count is 85, right?
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And he yanks him out. Spaceman calls me in tears. I I mean, I'm not being Now, I'm not being
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hyperbolic. And I said, "Spaceman, why are you crying?" And he said, "Because
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the guy didn't get a chance to find out how good he could be." And that's what's
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missing now. Too often it's shortcircuited. >> Let me say, Jane, just one thing. The
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way we talk as statisticants on the show, every pitcher has good days and bad days. You'd agree with that? There's
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a and there's also heterogeneity. Some pitchers are just better than others.
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But when you get a guy like Kershaw, who's one of the greatest of all times,
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and he's having a good day, there's no rational reason to take him out. you
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have evidence that you got the good Kershaw on that day and he's pitching well on that day. We talk about that all
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the time that why would you bring in a reliever who is some random person who may be having a bad day when you know
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the pitcher you have out there is happens to be on one of his good days. We talk about this all the time.
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>> I'm I'm just going to follow that up before I turn it to you, Jane, because I
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actually think that the analy analytics are getting it wrong. There are two questions that are analytical in nature
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that they pretend to have an answer to. One is somehow that pulling a pitcher after the sixth inning or the seventh
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inning with a low pitch count is saving them for future injur in injury. There is any data that suggests that works.
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This magic 100 I mean what they did to uh um >> James Andrews and I don't it's not datab based. I mean
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what they did to um the Nationals star pitcher um Straber, right? and they pulled him at after
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in the middle of early September um for some reason >> late late August. But Mike Rizzo did
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that with a a thing this big that I that he lent to me and I ran through it of every pitcher had had Tommy John surgery
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up to that time which was two August 2012 and where they hit the wall in their first season after Tommy John and
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it was at 160 innings almost unanimously 160 innings. >> I'd love to see that study and I don't
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think it is a study. It's a private analysis that Mike Rizzo did. But we one
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of the things that we also point out is that um and this is what Eric was getting at is when you bring in five
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relievers in a game, you're bound to run into one who's having a really bad day.
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And so it's really upsetting to see a starter who's doing having a great day
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be pulled in favor of a likelihood of of one of the five relievers that are coming in just blowing it. And as a
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Yankee fan throughout the season, as Eric will know, how many games did did Boone blow by bringing in five
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relievers? And I'm only gonna I'm only going to counterargue here because, you
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know, again, the the kind of counterfactual that we don't get to observe is what the starter would have
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done if they hadn't been pulled. And a lot of these decisions, and I'm not
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arguing that they I think again I I I I I I I dream of the days when starters go
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longer, but I think a lot of these decisions are based on like a particular like their third time through the order
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and we all know there's analytics on that like you know it's their third time
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through the order or there's a specific matchup coming up and manag I do think
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in our analytic heavy days managers are very quick to pull that starter but usually it's not necessarily just a
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straightup pitch count kind of argument or or or like rationale that's going
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into these decisions. >> How do you know that? >> Well, just based on what they say after
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the game when asked why they pulled the >> say after the game, >> including that it was the manager.
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>> Sure. >> Whose decision is it? >> All those decisions are made pregame by
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baseball ops guys. >> I mean, at certain teams that's certainly the case, but I mean that's
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not I think >> the Yankees. >> Well, yeah, we know. Yeah, the Yankees
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are a case but but but very analyt this style of pitching has so corrupted the arms so destroyed the arms of the
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relievers that they're being forced without realizing that they're doing the
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right thing back towards using you know starters more and you somebody asked the
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question why don't they change um there's a professor of economics who specializes in entertainment and uh
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sports economics particularly baseball really guys at Wisconsin lacrosse and I said I said the same thing to him why
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why don't they do something different and he said well there's something
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called path dependence which is an actual thing in economics which means that if you've gone along and invested
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an incredible amount of money in developing a gasg guzzling uh you know catal AC and Escalot or whatever the
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hell it is. Um, and you know, you're paying people and the the the line the,
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you know, the factory is all set up and it's all, you know, and the Japanese
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come along and produce small cars with lots of um better gas mileage for one year. Like what is it 79? Is that when
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that happened? And you know, you sit and you look at yourself and you go, "Oh, do
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I throw it all out? It's been working for how many decades, right? Do I throw
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it all out based on one year or even two years of evidence? How do I know it's
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not going to come back to where I am? And baseball was acted like the car manufacturers in the United States. And
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and that's and the same thing is true of um the copycat owners and general managers. Somebody is going to do
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exactly what you're saying. Somebody is going to say last year Jim Cot, Paul Molader, Rod
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Karu went to the twins um spring training. You always have, you know, these special adviserss show up and hang
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out at spring training and they were literally put in quarantine. they were not allowed to talk to um any of the
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current players and uh Korea who you know blessedly went back to Houston said within earshot of Jim Cot you know what
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do those have to tell me well let me just say they might have a thing or two to say and this is bigger than baseball
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this is what we're facing in the United States of America today. You know, the
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the lack of respect for experience that is or intelligence that is a kind of intelligence not verified by big data,
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right? The idea that that seeing games over 50 years might have taught you something that you know you can't find
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in a computer. I mean, it's really amazing to me that the only science in this country that is
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not under duress and having everybody fired is data science. I mean, how can you how can you base how
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can you say, you know, oh, you know, Dusty Baker's in uniform for nearly a thousand games, but that doesn't matter.
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>> So, I mean, so we definitely have heard a lot about the analytic side, but one
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of the things that the title of your book is Make Me Commissioner. I would like to hear some of the other
00:24:10
suggestions you have to potentially change baseball and make it more return to more of its past. Not not going to
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see that because I think one of the things that that that I didn't really get from your book which which is the
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the rise of the other sports particularly football and their eventdriven interest where there's one game a week
00:24:28
for just 16 weeks maybe some playoffs. It's a completely different phenomenon
00:24:33
based on a different time and a different way of engaging. We're never going to get football to go away and let
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baseball go back. So, how do we get baseball to be to capitalize on its strengths and fill the void that's
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created because you have these event games and I think there's a lot to do. What would you suggest?
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>> Um, I'm going to say something I'm not supposed to say, but I'm going to say it
00:24:53
because I'm really pissed off today at my publisher. The only industry I know
00:24:58
that is as badly run, managed, publicized, and marketed as baseball is publishing. They don't know who their
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audience is. >> They have no idea how to start to build back a base of of fans. Um, they're just
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stuck where they were. They don't know what to do. So they just keep doing the
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same thing over. >> Yes. >> Shame. >> Just I I mean I >> that baseball has been pretty proactive
00:25:34
at least in the last five or six years about actually trying to change the game, speeding up speed of play.
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>> H 23 24 25. Okay. Three years. Thank you. >> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. uh over the last few
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years, baseball has been kind of proactive. I I mean, just in terms of like it, you know, it's been inducing
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more rule changes, >> maybe out of desperation or need uh than most other sports I see around. Do you
00:26:02
kind of feel like those aren't particularly impactful or, you know, just a drop in the bucket? They're not
00:26:09
anywhere near the what's needed? >> Well, I don't think it's going to be
00:26:12
football. I don't think being a 12 billion dollar industry is a terrible thing. But having the difference between
00:26:20
now and then is all that inventory as you know economists like to talk about both in the number of games and in the
00:26:28
number of seats is a really bad look. If you went to a game in 19 33 and half the seats were empty at
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Yankee Stadium. You knew that, but you didn't see it. Right? Every game when
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you when they pan the stands and there's nobody there is a really big problem
00:26:46
because it says nobody else is going. Why should you? Right. Um they have made some serious gains based on improving
00:26:55
the pace of the game and the length of the game. Um, but you know, here's that
00:27:02
that question about the other day where they had the the why why is it okay to let a postseason game go as long as it's
00:27:08
supposed to without a stupid ghostrunner, but it's not okay in the regular season.
00:27:13
>> Yeah, I hate the ghost runner. So, like, >> you know, >> yeah,
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>> and it's analytics has worked to the benefit of football and basketball.
00:27:24
>> It had. Yes, it had. Your >> sport was a better game because of analytics. Yeah, they're they're younger
00:27:29
sports, right? And they are able to be uh responsive, you know, dextrous um in a way that baseball historically has
00:27:39
not. Baseball has its feet stuck in wherever, you know, sand, quicksand, whatever it is. They don't respond
00:27:46
quickly. They didn't respond in the 70s and 80s to the arrival of of the NFL.
00:27:52
And I didn't look and go, maybe we need a Pete Rosel. Oh, no. Let's stick with
00:27:57
Buoie Cune, rightwing Bible belt. >> Let me So, um, one thing, you know, it's
00:28:04
clear that that analytics has changed baseball for the worse and the other sports are the better, but I will
00:28:09
>> more exciting. >> The other sports have not because they don't have history, but you I'll just
00:28:14
take a quick story and get your reaction to it. Um about three years ago, I reconnected with an old friend, one of
00:28:20
my very best friends from forever. And we used to go to baseball games together as as middle school and early high
00:28:26
school. And um we decided to meet at Yankee Stadium and like old times, we were going to go get there early and
00:28:32
watch batting practice. So we show up and guess what? They're not letting anybody in.
00:28:37
>> There's gates gates closed and they didn't let us in until after all of that
00:28:42
was over. And I mean, it seems like the most foolish thing on earth that the student that to not and here we're we're
00:28:48
old folks trying to relive our childhood, but we got drawn into baseball because of interactions with
00:28:53
players on the field pregame. And they've taken that from us. And that has nothing to do with analytics.
00:29:00
>> I agree. And you notice that's one of my fixes, right? >> Um is to bring batting practice back.
00:29:06
>> Yes. I guess you didn't read it that carefully. No, I I wasn't sure you you
00:29:10
So, one of the things is that they'll say, and I went and talked to some of my
00:29:12
to my, you know, former students who work for teams is that the players like to go and work out in the cages
00:29:19
underneath. They don't like to come up >> who's paying the salary. I mean, there's
00:29:24
got to be rules that say you cannot go downstairs and be on the traject machine every day
00:29:31
>> because among other things, you know what? Trac machines don't make mistakes,
00:29:36
right? How are you going to adjust to that in the real time, right? What what got Otani to remember how to hit? He
00:29:44
went outside and took batting practice on the field from live batting practice. That was the what changed his trajectory
00:29:52
this last um you know uh series. Um Dave Roberts is the one who said to me, you know, they flipped the order of batting
00:30:04
practice. So now if you're if you're if you're once the gates are open, the per
00:30:09
the people taking batting practice to the extent they do it on the field at all are the visiting team.
00:30:14
>> Mhm. >> You can't you can't see your guys, right? Um and and there's no
00:30:21
requirement, no recognition by the union or any of the players that there is an obligation that it's an entertainment
00:30:29
business. You know that this is part of your job, guys. and that's out the window. And you know, somebody's got to,
00:30:39
you know, smack them upside the head. Um, you know, >> is that a union issue or is that just an
00:30:45
owner can demand it at some point? >> Well, they they'd have to put it in the
00:30:49
CBA. You know, um, you know, a lot of the things that I've suggested are so simple. Flip the batting practice, let
00:30:56
people in earlier, open the gates earlier. That's how I became a Mickey Manel fan because my grandmother lived
00:31:03
two blocks away and I would go down and you know walk around in the ballpark and wait to
00:31:10
see him hit. And that's you have to let people gain purchase on the game in a
00:31:17
way that is different from the handsoff. You know, everything's separate. There's
00:31:23
gates. There's there's fences. There's locks. There's, you know, all the places
00:31:29
you can't go as a place as opposed to where you can go. You know what? There
00:31:33
are people who can't go to baseball games because they can't afford baseball
00:31:36
food. You used to be able to bring a sandwich. Okay, they're not going to do that
00:31:43
because they're rich, greedy bastards. But, okay, why don't you >> And in Yankee Stadium, I will say you
00:31:48
can bring your own You can bring your sandwich to Yankee Stadium. >> Same in Phillies. Um, you can still
00:31:52
bring sound [ __ ] ballpark, >> but why not have, you know, they all created picnic areas. Why can't that be
00:31:58
designated as a place that if you want to bring food from home, bring it. Go ahead, advertise it.
00:32:05
It's ridiculous. An $18 beer. I mean, unbelievable. Um, I think, okay, I think
00:32:13
they should let all kids under the age of 10 in free with accompanied by a soap or adult. Um, imagine the public
00:32:21
relations heist, right? Um, when Rob Manford or myself, my predecessor or me gets up and says, "You know what? We've
00:32:30
thought about this a lot. We've done a lot of research. We've talked to a lot
00:32:34
of people and we really do want more people in ballparks and we recognize that it's very expensive to come, you
00:32:43
know, and to come more than once with a family of four is prohibitive. We get it." Okay. So, here's a list of the
00:32:50
things we're going to do to make baseball more available to you. And starting with grandma, grandpa, whoever
00:32:58
takes a 10-year-old kid to the ballpark, the kid gets in free >> for free because baseball has inventory.
00:33:05
That is the thing that it has above any other. We have lots and lots and lots of
00:33:08
games. >> That's the problem. Inventory was okay when >> back in the day though, you know, Yankee
00:33:14
Stadium wasn't full for Joe. What's attendance records are are modern though. The the biggest I mean Dodgers
00:33:21
and the Yankees and Red Sox, they're they're hitting attendance records.
00:33:25
That's way beyond what they used to in back in the day when the games were in
00:33:28
the daytime and and uh people couldn't get out as easily. Um so it's not I mean
00:33:33
I don't think the problem is is big. >> Can I can I whoever asked what you know
00:33:38
what's going to change it between baseball and football. Um, I've done a lot of work in a
00:33:44
previous iteration on CTE. Um, when they can diagnose CTE in a 14-year-old, and God knows they have it already because
00:33:55
they've been banging their heads against each other since they were seven without
00:33:59
the musculature to support, you know, the head and the neck. Um, people are going to start rethinking putting their
00:34:07
kids in um in tackle football. And the NFL knows it. And you know how you how they know, you know, they know it
00:34:14
because they're the ones supporting and building up flag football. They know
00:34:20
it's coming. Ball doesn't seem to know it's coming. And you know, the the
00:34:27
tagline, you know, come back to baseball, the game your kid might remember. I mean, get get a little tough. Stop
00:34:37
being such [ __ ] I mean, they're just unbelievable. They're >> MLB just definitely has his issues as we
00:34:44
we've talked about on our show. So, I think it's time for us to end our our
00:34:48
conversation as we have our first show. Oh, no. We go I we'd love to talk for
00:34:52
hours. I personally I know Eric and and Shane and Kade we haven't heard from,
00:34:56
but um it we we these are these are issues that are very dear to our heart. We are guys who've been watching
00:35:02
baseball for a very very long time. And frankly, I do I'll finish with a comment. Um for someone who has attended
00:35:08
basketball and football and hockey um uh and baseball games are the only ones regularly attended by families. Um and
00:35:14
you don't see that in football and the other sports um because there are fewer
00:35:18
games and and they're expensive, but baseball is something that families go to and and they it's and they enjoy as
00:35:24
as a family. They need to capitalize on that to uh to bring back the interest. You know what I'd like to know from you
00:35:30
guys? It'd be very helpful to me. >> Where do you think analytics has served
00:35:35
baseball badly? >> Do we have time for one round quick round? You want to go around Kade? We
00:35:41
haven't heard from you. Kade, you want to tell us? >> Audi's just getting me back for all the
00:35:46
years when I miss his hand. >> Yeah. Um my position is that analytics analytics is nothing more than
00:35:57
optimization. >> It's like advancing. It's facilitating optimization.
00:36:02
>> Yeah. Efficiency. >> So if you don't if you don't I didn't
00:36:04
say efficiency. Optimization. So whatever you're trying to optimize, maximize this, minimize that, you're
00:36:10
going to get more of it if you understand the inputs and outputs better. So if you don't like what's
00:36:17
happening, don't blame analytics. Change the rules. Which I was what I admire
00:36:20
about your book. You're like, make me commissioner. I'll change the rules. But
00:36:23
I think this whole grrowsing about analytics is wildly off base because mostly that's just optimizing subject to
00:36:30
the rules. And it turns out that some games have rules that are more robust to quick intense optimization. And other
00:36:40
games need to adjust the rules. So that is slightly defensive, but >> I agree with you and like I said, I I
00:36:48
understand that the analytics that that third time through the order is harder for a pitcher. I get it. You see a guy
00:36:56
more when the leagues were smaller and you pitched a guy a guy you faced a guy more often. All that stuff is it's
00:37:03
obviously irrefutable. But I said to my friend Pekco Pasoy, who is the head of the MIT um analytics lab,
00:37:13
you know, okay, you guys wrecked baseball, you know, shouldn't you fix it? And so we came up with a handheld
00:37:21
game that can be played on mom's phone if the kid doesn't have one at a ballpark where you can interact with
00:37:29
with the players on the field. There was some talk by the bananas that they were
00:37:34
going to put um QR codes on jerseys um so that you could scan in the previous atbat, you could scan in highlights, you
00:37:44
could send the guy a question, whatever. They have to speak to kids and a younger
00:37:49
generation in the language that those kids speak and it ain't ours. That's for
00:37:54
sure. what you're talking about, Jane, you're talking about changing the fan
00:37:56
experience, which I think is really important and the batting practice flipping and the opening the gates
00:38:01
early. That's that's one way to do that. What Kate is referring to is changing
00:38:04
the way the game is actually played. >> I understand that. >> And so, but I do think for example,
00:38:08
making the roster 11 starting pitch starting pitches will will change the parameters and therefore you'll have to
00:38:14
change the way pitching occurs. Another potential change would be you can't pull
00:38:18
a starter unless you have a real reason to do so after a certain number of >> That's in the book. I saw that those are
00:38:23
things in your book, right? And yeah, and these are ways to change the parameters of the game, but you can't
00:38:28
change the way the batter is swinging, but I do think the an analytics have made some errors. Um, and those errors
00:38:34
will eventually straighten out. Um, and one of the things is they haven't really
00:38:37
understood the interaction of players. They tend to add up everybody's contribution in what we call linear
00:38:43
functional, an additive linear functional. But baseball actually has a lot of interaction. And I think they
00:38:47
sort of missed that. And so what happens now is you'll have a player who hits 35
00:38:51
40 home runs with 70 RBI's. Why? Because there's nobody on base when they hit
00:38:55
them. And that requires a mixture which they don't think they have quite gotten
00:38:58
right. I think it it's telling that you tell us you we learned from you how the
00:39:03
decisions that that the Yankees make come from the front office. They can't win a playoff series and something's
00:39:08
going wrong there with their analytic staff and and they haven't diagnosed it.
00:39:13
Um so there's an enormous amount we can talk about. I think Kad's uh reaction is
00:39:17
actually good and and you actually catch that in your book because you did speak
00:39:20
to Sam Andre Cohen who is one of my close friends and former students who told me and many times I've spoken to
00:39:25
him is is just that you know you can't make us we're we're going to optimize
00:39:29
and you can't stop us and don't expect that to happen. If you want things to be
00:39:33
different you got to change the parameters. >> Sam said that to me exactly. I mean I
00:39:37
think the rule that you can't take a a pitcher out until or unless he's given
00:39:42
up a run in an inning. >> Mhm. Yeah, how about that? You know, you can put in extreme measures, you know,
00:39:50
now and um that people are going to go, >> you know, and and moderate later. That's
00:39:56
the problem with baseball is they haven't been willing to get off what they've done forever and and change it.
00:40:03
So, they just, you know, the said to me, uh probably not supposed to repeat it, you know, the qu there was no
00:40:08
leadership. It was less a fair. It wasn't that the game wasn't changing.
00:40:13
was changing all the time to the to the game, you know, we saw up till 2021 when
00:40:18
there was 3 minutes and 52 seconds between balls put in play, right? Um it was just not
00:40:27
change that was guided. There were no tugboats helping steer that boat. And that's a big boat to steer, you know. It
00:40:34
was it was going to go somewhere. It was going to do something. It had to. You know, these guys are bigger and
00:40:39
stronger. Are they better baseball players? A lot of them are. Not all of them. A lot of them are just bigger and
00:40:45
stronger. >> Um but it's that they got caught in path dependence. I think Michael's exactly
00:40:53
right about that. And um I have a whole ton of suggestions in there. I I suggested and somebody was Petco was
00:41:01
going to do this for me. What if you put up a plexiglass wall um like what surrounds a hockey rink in the outfield
00:41:13
so that you didn't so sheep home runs didn't go for cheap >> so like a green monster a little higher
00:41:20
everywhere so you didn't get >> but it but it would be uh but it would
00:41:23
be see-through so imagine sitting behind that when you know Aaron Judge goes plowing into it right so it would force
00:41:31
there to be a outfielders who can actually field and throw. And it would would create more doubles and triples,
00:41:39
which is what fans say they want and which are more exciting than just watching some another behemoth hit the
00:41:46
ball over the, you know, two rows into the, you know, >> even non-behemoths hit the ball. Anyway,
00:41:51
I'd love to I thank you so much for joining us. >> I'm Moneyball. We have a second half of
00:41:56
our show to do. So, um, it's been a pleasure to bring you on to our show, Jane, and for our readers,
00:42:01
>> the guys make them buy the book. >> Absolutely, Kade. >> That you win the Blue Award of our 11
00:42:12
years on the show. And that's an accomplishment. That's fun. Actually, if
00:42:16
you don't, you might get beeped out. Actually, back in the day, you wouldn't
00:42:19
have gotten beeped out, but Dion may have beeped. You're gonna have more beeps than anybody's ever had on this
00:42:23
show, which we enjoyed. >> We do. I don't like the thing but uh as academics we like to use
00:42:28
>> writer >> know how I got answers in locker rooms by speaking the way they speak
00:42:34
>> of course uh anyway we enjoyed having you and we look forward to uh discussing
00:42:39
I I'd be delighted to talk the all the other books as well which I've read with
00:42:43
great uh with great joy. So thank you once again Jane. >> So that concludes our
00:42:48
>> All right welcome back to the second half of Wharton Moneyball which won't be
00:42:52
a half. We had an amazing interview with Jane Levy uh Levy. I mispronounced her name once. I don't want to do it again.
00:42:59
Um author of the new book Make Me Commissioner, I Know What's Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It. She
00:43:04
certainly has lots of ideas. Um so uh we enjoyed uh listening to them and I'm
00:43:10
sure we'll be taking some of them apart uh going forward. Um in fact, maybe we
00:43:13
can start by asking any of you guys to have any obvious reactions to some of those suggestions um that she brought
00:43:19
about. I'm not a huge fan of one of the things we didn't talk about was the
00:43:24
conservative nature of baseball which makes its history really so interesting to us goes back to the 1880s and it's
00:43:30
still more or less the same game. You really change it you don't have that. I
00:43:34
know that's something that I can think about. What do you guys think? I think I
00:43:37
think baseball just quickly I think baseball should um experiment with stuff and just like we know they're you know
00:43:45
Shane has been a big fan I think Shane right of the uh electronic umpires you know but that they tested in the minor
00:43:51
leagues and they're then they're going to bring it up and um I think that's
00:43:55
what we should do but I completely agree with everything that Cade said is that data science allows for optimization and
00:44:03
teams you know people have it's also a principle agent problem. You could say,
00:44:07
"Boy, it'd be great if the fans enjoyed themselves." Great. And I'll be out of a
00:44:10
job because my I'm not my team's not winning games and I'm not utilizing my
00:44:16
pitchers in a way that's optimizing what the rules say I should optimize. And so
00:44:21
I liked your thoughts. Look, the question I would have asked her about was, you know, you know, Audi, the thing
00:44:27
I care about the most is the comparability of baseball. And that to me is what's
00:44:33
been damaged the most. You can't tell me that a statline from 2025 can be directly compared to someone from 1955.
00:44:41
And we all want to do that and it's hard to do. >> But but hold on. But but that's that's a
00:44:46
challenge we have in all sports. And in fact, part of our trade is knowing how to do that. Well, right. It's surprising
00:44:52
to me that you want one sport to be different or that you would >> Well, I think baseball more than most
00:44:57
holds on to its history and it has like twice the history probably. We don't do
00:45:01
that with basketball and football and hockey because we don't we recognize it's not doable.
00:45:05
>> We era we era adjust and all those >> we do it but we don't do it. We don't
00:45:10
have the we don't have the the traditional I the straightforward counting stats that are comparable in
00:45:17
>> like nobody would nobody would try and compare Patrick Mahomes's career to
00:45:20
Terry Bradshaw like oh look number people do exactly that. That's ex That's
00:45:25
exactly an enterprise that some people take. >> Well, I I guess you'd have to use You could not use raw
00:45:32
numbers to do that comparison. >> K. Do you know what the the most number of touchdowns thrown by a quarterback in
00:45:37
a season is? >> Well, I don't I could >> I do. Of course you do.
00:45:41
>> But that's No, no, no. That's my point. You know, you know the maximum number of
00:45:46
home runs hit in a season. You do. >> I think we probably even know, you know,
00:45:50
when the last time someone hit 400 in baseball. I think we know each row has the most number of hits in a season at
00:45:56
two. >> I've got a great to say it maybe. >> Okay. Well, this is this is actually an
00:46:02
interesting philosophical question. How we prize that >> for in a big one for B.
00:46:09
>> No, I I was just saying even even baseball has ones like for example, here's one that just recently happened
00:46:16
like you know yesterday. George Springer that that I I think is is a total but is
00:46:21
not really comparable over baseball history. George Springer is now tied for third all time in terms of postseason
00:46:28
home runs. >> I mean players for many years and it was good, >> right? And and the playoffs have
00:46:34
expanded. Could you like Here's a here's a fun little like exercise. The other
00:46:39
five top postseason home run hitters. They're almost all recent dudes because
00:46:44
playoffs have expanded. playoffs have expanded and that makes it comparable. I'm going to throw out one thing about
00:46:48
baseball that makes really it's not uh but but baseball is unique among professional sports that it is both a
00:46:56
team sport and an individual sport. You cannot really genuinely say that about the other sports that there's a genuine
00:47:02
individual sport component to it. when a pitcher >> typical quarterbacks in football.
00:47:07
>> Um, yeah, when when a pitcher faces a batter, that's a one-on-one and it's uh
00:47:12
and and over the course of the season, you get statistics that are highly individual. You don't have to worry
00:47:17
about offensive linemen and and defensive coordination and schemes and that and both basketball and football
00:47:24
and hockey that drive those those lack of comparisons because you don't know
00:47:28
the millu and it matters so much. So I think also partly maybe it is to Jane's
00:47:32
point also because there are so many baseball games >> like to make the sport I'll call it
00:47:39
maybe more interesting we have to be able to look backwards look forward compare this person to that person I
00:47:46
mean I I think I actually think more during baseball games in other words of thinking about the historical relevance
00:47:52
or the rarity of what I'm seeing because it dramatically is required for me for
00:47:59
the entertainment So that's amazing. This is this is exactly what I'm curious about is that
00:48:04
this is a philosophical question like what do you value in the sport? I would have thought I'm not saying it's wrong.
00:48:10
It's just like this is eye opening to me. You'd have thought it was like the
00:48:14
quality of play in front of you in the game, the the an arc of a season and a particular team that accomplishes the
00:48:20
the Red Sox finally winning the world championship or whatever. And Erica said, "No, no, we value the ability to
00:48:26
compare across errors. We value the ability to think in these about these individual accomplishments in objective
00:48:34
term like absolute terms. Absolute terms. That's interesting. I think that's is unique about baseball. I mean
00:48:39
I wouldn't have known that's true but that's that could be true. >> I think second chain it is funny that
00:48:47
Eric is basically saying baseball there's so much baseball it gets boring. I need to think about these other things
00:48:53
in order. No, it discreet nature means that these kind of tabulation events, there's always some kind of unique
00:48:59
numerical kind of thing happening. I do love that about baseball, but kind of I do think we can all agree that this the
00:49:06
actual kind of onfield game, you know, we would like to kind of get it to a little bit I I think it's maybe improved
00:49:14
in the last couple years, but we'd like to get it to away from just as far as
00:49:17
the fan experience goes away from this three true outcome. Let me ask you about that launch angle. Let me ask let me ask
00:49:23
about that in a way that connects to an event uh which is last night's game seven that we're recording on Tuesday.
00:49:28
Game seven in the AL was last night and I I turned it on early. I'm on the East
00:49:34
Coast. I don't stay up that late to watch baseball. So I went to bed and missed most of the action. But if I'm
00:49:38
not mistaken, at least the last few run events, like maybe all the Mariners and then obviously the big one for the Jays,
00:49:46
they were all home runs. So everything was home. Well, that was a multi multi run. There's a lot there was a lot of on
00:49:52
bait. There was a lot of other stuff happening in the game. >> Right. So that's I mean Right. It's like
00:49:56
those home runs and those moments that's not that's not boring, right? I mean
00:50:00
those were all massive moments. >> No, no, it's it's it's more that I think
00:50:06
you know like again like a team that can do both home runs and kind of generate offense in other ways. I think it's more
00:50:12
adaptable for playoffs and we've kind of already discussed that with the Yankees
00:50:15
on the other side of the the equation. I think just again for a fan experience, home runs are very fun, but like it's
00:50:21
also like, you know, again that home run or nothing kind of, you know, like where
00:50:26
there's not even balls in play happening. You know, I I think you kind of want, as far as action goes, you want
00:50:32
people on base. You don't like a bunch of solo home runs is >> controlling for the same amount of
00:50:38
offensive output less interesting than other ways of >> What do we see? What's the What's the
00:50:42
most interesting moment that's happened in the playoffs? my claim other than
00:50:46
Otani setting aside Otani's best game in the history of baseball setting aside
00:50:50
which is an individual performance grand slam >> the diamond that would that eventual
00:50:54
performance was makes it so interesting because they walked away with that game easily. It wasn't it wasn't like a tight
00:50:59
game. It wasn't a wasn't a Springer home run or an Aaron Judge home run. It was a
00:51:03
it was wasn't a moment. It was a it was a display of of athletic prowess that of
00:51:07
the likes we probably have never seen of in baseball. Like I think that's a point8 war for Otani for that game.
00:51:14
>> Well, that's that that's that's assuming that adds that way. That's not possible.
00:51:18
>> I mean, I don't think I don't think there's any model base. I think that's
00:51:20
just sort of what they could do the whole show on Otani and game four. That that could happen. But
00:51:27
but I'm asking like the how did the Phillies get knocked out? The play the last play of the Phillies season.
00:51:32
Look, that was an era. It was there's no there's like a very far from home run, very far from the
00:51:39
three- tree outcomes. A lot of interesting things happening to get to that point.
00:51:43
But that was a mess. That was a that was there was a walk issued earlier in the game leading to a run that was a very
00:51:52
bad call. And people point to that and go, "How did he blow that?" >> Kade Kate brings up a very interesting
00:51:57
point. I agree with you. despite obviously I was rooting for the Phillies. That was a beautiful mess.
00:52:02
>> A beautiful mess. >> You know what I do love that innings you'll never forget and and um
00:52:09
>> more base runners play more bang bang kind of events where stuff like that can
00:52:14
happen is more compelling baseball. I totally agree with you guys. So maybe you know what Kate also pointed
00:52:22
out to Jane Levy which I think was appropriate was you know it's clear that the right answer if there is a right
00:52:29
answer is what people struggle with today when they you know program AI engines and AI and Shane know this well
00:52:36
>> what is the objective function you you're trying to optimize against and
00:52:40
it's clear that going back to 1920 baseball that's not that's not happening
00:52:46
it's not optimal in any way. 25 baseball is not optimal. So the question is what
00:52:52
else do you bring in to what you're trying to bring to the game? And then of
00:52:56
course the other question is how much weight do you put on that? And that's the question.
00:52:59
>> But but you called it a principal agent problem which in a way it is because the
00:53:03
teams are going to optimize winning period. And people who want to see more entertainment that's not the team's
00:53:08
enterprise. The league is the one who cares about entertainment. But the problem with that and that Jane was
00:53:12
abundantly clear is that the league has basically laid down on the job. And it wasn't until they hired Theo Epstein
00:53:19
three years ago that they made any substantive change at all, which was the only moment in its in MLB's history that
00:53:25
they made that change. Listen, we are data analysts. And one of the things that that the NFL has done beautifully
00:53:30
is bring data to the world. And basketball is now doing that. And baseball is so behind in fan engagement
00:53:38
um in so many areas. And the and one of the things you talked about was just making the game more accessible to
00:53:43
people and but that involves leadership. I mean without that it's not going to
00:53:48
happen. >> Yeah. And I I just want to kind of like I I did feel like the conversation with
00:53:52
her uh was a little I when we talk about fan experience it was entirely at the ballpark fan experience she was talking
00:53:59
about, >> right? >> You know like oh like the different hoarder for like you know pregame and oh
00:54:03
the the beers are too expensive blah blah blah blah type of thing. But like I mean you know most of like I
00:54:10
mean that's I don't I don't think basketball and NFL have grown because of
00:54:14
like at the like I mean I think even smaller proportion people actually >> it's not peach baskets. It's not peach
00:54:20
baskets. We're not going back to peach baskets. That's not why basketball's
00:54:22
good. It's like come on. >> Yeah. No it's it's sort of like it's got
00:54:26
to be something about the actual product and viewing product from like a screen because so you know like so much of the
00:54:32
growth of any sport these days is how we consume it behind a screen. And so I think it's kind of like I think the pace
00:54:39
of play changes were really productive in that regard. I I wonder kind of what other sort of like quote unquote fan
00:54:45
experience changes I mean you can tell me because you read the book more closely like she talked about that
00:54:50
weren't just about at the ballpark. Well, she did talk about she started to talk about that. She she worked with
00:54:54
this uh or she had some impact and she wrote about um this uh an app that her students uh that discuss this this
00:55:02
professor Pico she mentions Hanoi I think her name is um who runs a basically a sports tech lab at MIT um
00:55:09
and uh and does a lot of I she called it sports analytics but but it's more sports tech. They built an app which um
00:55:15
allows you to for kids to kind of predict what's going to happen next. it called it's called beat the bot but it
00:55:22
sounded like they were essentially turning the kids into gamblers with not for money but for prizes. Um it's right
00:55:28
on the spot >> or just trainers for future algorithms how we do these >> days much more oriented in watching but
00:55:34
I will say that and this is why I don't think she's wrong about the fan experience. So much of my interest in
00:55:40
baseball was being brought as a child to a game and engaging with the players on
00:55:45
the field before the game. not only in batting practice, but I'll never forget
00:55:48
getting a signed autograph from a player in the stands of my was brought there to
00:55:54
sign autographs for the players for sign my scorecard and that player was was um
00:55:59
Bobby Bonds, father of Barry >> just to give you a sense. >> Yeah, I did want to sort of I I I don't
00:56:06
We got a little maybe it was just at the end, but I do think having Aaron Judge like crash into like a plexiglass
00:56:14
>> like uh like like in hockey that would definitely change the fan experience.
00:56:18
We'd have a lot of shattered >> she was talking about like what what Fenway has with its green monster is a
00:56:23
really interesting fly balls to the outfield. >> Do you as baseball purists I I most
00:56:28
Yankee fans I know hate the Green Monster specific not just because of the history whatever but because it's like
00:56:34
too whackadoo. It's like, you know, like it change like I mean it really changes
00:56:38
like the geography of a game in Boston. But is that like like would we want to kind of create like are we going to I I
00:56:45
would worry we kind of create like sort of like too many kind of weird like >> isn't that what the didn't Astros put a
00:56:50
flag in center field back in the day? >> Like you know you >> and Monument Park used to be on the
00:56:56
field >> and was on the field had that weird slope up. I don't know if they still
00:57:01
have that slope up in center. Well, they have changed the dimensions to make it easier to hit home runs and that is
00:57:07
definitely something that they've done which is working against some some in
00:57:10
some level against um itself. We should be um promoting the league should be promoting singles and doubles and
00:57:16
triples rather than making home runs even easier. Um listen guys, we can talk about this forever. We didn't talk about
00:57:22
any other sports this week. Our our time has come to an end unfortunately. Um and
00:57:27
we all have places to go. So, I want to um conclude our show by thanking our our
00:57:31
our actually our guest sound engineer Aaron Tran was in today. Dion is out. Um and of course uh Marissa Rena, our
00:57:39
producer, our guest Jane Levy, and of course our my colleagues here at Wharton Moneyball. Have a great week everyone.
00:57:45
Enjoy your statistics, enjoy your sports, and we'll see you at next week. [Music]