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Welcome to Wharton Moneyball.
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This week's show we'll be discussing all
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things analytics and sports. Um I'm
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Professor Audi Winer from the Wharton
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Schools Department of Statistics, Data
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Science, and I'm joined as usually with
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by Eric Bradlo, professor of marketing
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and statistics, Shane Jensen, professor
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of statistics, and hopefully we'll be
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joined by Cade Massie, um who is our
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regular host, and he's trying to come in
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right now. Um, and our show usually is
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in two parts. And we're going to begin
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with our interview. And we are delighted
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to welcome to our show, uh, Jane Levy.
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>> Levy.
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>> Jane Levy. Am I pronouncing it?
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>> It's Levy. There we go. I made an error
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at the right off the bat. Um, that's
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because I I I read your book, so I don't
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get to hear it pronounced properly. Um,
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so I'll give her a short bio about Jane.
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Jane is definitely um a baseball writer
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that I am well aware of, having read
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some of her previous books. I think I
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read three of the four previous ones,
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including The Big Fellow about Babe
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Ruth, um The Last Boy about Mickey
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Mantel and The End of America's
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Childhood, a story um that that's about
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Mickey Mantel and then Sandy Kofax, A
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Lefty's Legacy. Those are, you know,
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three amazing baseball players that were
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heroes to me my whole life and I read
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those three biographies. But most
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recently, um she has written the book,
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um Make Me Commissioner, I Know What's
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Wrong with Baseball and How to Fix It.
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um which is just relatively recent
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recently released and I I went and got
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it almost right away and just devoured
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it um because these are topics that we
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have thought about greatly on our show
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Moneyball. We've talked about what's
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ailing baseball and analytics is
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something that runs um substantially in
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your as a theme throughout your book
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although not positively. Um, so we're in
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some sense bringing you into our our our
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layer here to see what you have to say
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about
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>> Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,
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wait. I
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>> I do say somewhere in there, you know,
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they're here to stay. They're not going
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away. The information is too good, too
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valuable, too irrefutable to get rid of,
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you know.
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>> Absolutely. Yes, you do.
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>> I do say all of that. What I also argue
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is that in ways that I don't think
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anybody has stopped to consider hereto
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for um they've
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what's the polite word destroyed the
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narratives that baseball used to be able
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to tell because they've so reoriented
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the priorities of the game and how it's
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played. So, you know, and I think that
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is part of the reason that fans have
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gone elsewhere for excitement. The fact
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of the matter is baseball's really
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exciting if you know what to look for.
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And if it isn't all three true outcomes,
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I couldn't believe I actually agreed
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with something Alex Rodriguez said when
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he's he said, "Home runs are boring."
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Yes, they're boring unless somebody
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brings them. the irony of that guy
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saying that by the way.
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>> Yeah. A guy who who has more than
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>> the guy who used it to hit a lot of home
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runs.
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>> So uh let's talk about this for a
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moment. Um so one of the things that
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this I think that's a good place to get
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started. I will say that you know all of
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us are deeply invested in analytics but
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we don't work for baseball teams and I
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don't think we individually are
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responsible for that. And in fact I have
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a lot of criticisms of the way analytics
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is used in baseball um because I think
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they miss the point in a lot of areas.
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But I just want to separate two aspects
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of analytics after reading your book. Um
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there's that I think our readers also
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deserve to understand the distinction.
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There's the techn technology side of
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analytics which has really changed the
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game. This is the the technologies all
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the bat path research the high-speed
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cameras the training programs that have
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made the pitchers so commonly hitting
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100 miles per hour. Um and that's
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impacting baseball I think more
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prominently than maybe any other sport.
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And then there's the analytic side,
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which is the strategy, the the player
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placement, the approaches, um, and of
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course the def the LA the big changes in
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the game, getting rid of bunting, the
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lowering of stealing, the defensive
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shifts, all these things. And of course,
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and it's affected, of course,
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evaluation. That's really what Moneyball
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was all about. How analytics has
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affected evaluation. So, let's take you
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through this um and and talk about how
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these things have affected baseball in
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your in your view.
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Well, I mean, I think it's killing it. I
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mean, and I don't mean that because I
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hate all Look, first of all, I can't
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add, multiply, subtract, or divide. Got
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a 320 on my math GRE when they still
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used to take it out of, you know, 800
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points. So, for me to have spent this
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much time trying to understand the math
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and following people around going, I
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have no idea what they're talking about.
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If I can't make it clear to readers, you
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know, it's the same issue as the
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analytics dudes in the baseball ops
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office trying to talk to players who
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have no idea what they're talking about
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and can't follow it. So, um I I I this
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is very idiosyncratic of me and and you
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know, maybe I'm wrong, but um there's a
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chapter a very long chapter in the
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middle of it um that's uh located at a
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beautiful maybe the most beautiful
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baseball field in America called
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Eldridge Park in Cape Cod where there
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are no seats. You just sit on the on a
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hillside and um volunteers come and
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bring their grills and make hot dogs,
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right? Um, it's it's everything that one
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would suppose baseball should be or was
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once. My kids used to be able to go out
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on that field between innings and catch
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fireflies and nobody was upset like, "Oh
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my god, what are they going to do to
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that gazillion dollar turf?" Um,
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so there is this idyllic portion of what
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baseball is thought to be, which I
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certainly have witnessed. But even that
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idol is has been significantly changed
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not just by analytics but p you know
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largely by analytics. I mean I said to
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the manager one day I you know MLB had
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gotten rid of the shift and he's still
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playing the shift. I said Kelly why what
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you you called what did the shift on? He
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goes yeah I want to win.
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Okay I get it. Um but what it's done in
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my view um and I think the most
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destructive part is the pitching. Um you
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know the the 100 mph um max heave style
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of pitching is not only dangerous for
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the guys who are doing it a percentage
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of whom have had double surgeries like
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Otani. I was about to write a piece that
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said Otani shouldn't pitch for the Los
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Angeles Dodgers. You know how many
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pictures they used this year? One of you
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probably knows.
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>> No.
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>> How many? Oh my god. They probably used
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over 20, I would guess.
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>> 47.
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>> 47. Oh my god.
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>> How many How many pitchers did they use
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in 19 in 1963 World Series?
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>> Seven. Probably
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>> four.
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>> Four.
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>> Areronowski had to come in relief of um
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Audrey. So um that in a nutshell is the
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difference between now and then. And I
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would argue that as an entertainment,
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it was a better game then. And virtually
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every old player thinks so. Um
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it it has been so con compacted,
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contracted, whatever, because of the
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three true outcomes, the same things
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happen over and over and over again. And
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when you get a guy like Jacob Young, the
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outfielder, um the gymnast for the
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Nationals, the only good thing any of
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them did all year, uh where he went to
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City Field and he brought a home run
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back over from center field and the ball
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drops out of his glove as he's coming
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back down to earth, right? And so what
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does he do? He kicks it and he kicks it
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into his glove and he makes the out and
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then he throws in. Great throat and and
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it's it's that's what's missing in
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baseball.
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It's you know Mookie bets with the wheel
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calling the wheel play because he didn't
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have a card index card in his hat. He
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was allowed to think use his instincts
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and his body the way he has been trained
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to use them.
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>> So Shane you have a you have a question?
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Well, so I mean I I guess my main kind
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of thought as I'm listening to this is
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um kind of like what would you kind of
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tang because I mean as you sort of said
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analytics are here to stay and it's not
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you I agree pitching has the the
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pitching as a narrative story story
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pitching has become more dehumanized I
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guess by our kind of conquest or or our
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our desire for efficiency.
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We've discovered that it's best to just
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have a whole slob of pitchers pitch two
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inn two times through the order and
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throw 100 miles an hour. But aside from
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I mean I I also lament kind of that
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going downhill but operation like act in
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terms of actionable recommendations are
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you kind of would you argue for like a
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rule change by baseball or I mean
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because teams you know teams aren't
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going to a subset of teams are always
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going to seek out that efficient uh that
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kind of efficiency. Um,
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yeah, I think they have to make and it's
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in pitching changes that that that I
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would make are are in the book, which
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apparently you haven't read. So, uh,
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>> I have I think the pitching staff,
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>> this is an opportunity to tell our
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listeners about it.
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>> Is I think the pitching staff needs to
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be completely reconfigured. They don't
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have enough arms. one um you know
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sitting in in a dugout with u Buck
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Shoalter or even Kevin Cash or you know
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um or Dusty and then they're trying to
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piece together okay where can I get
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another you know seven outs from now I
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can't ask him you know his arm's falling
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off no I can't ask him you know there
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forget strategy forget matchups it's
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just who can still lift their arm so
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they need more they need more arms and I
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could propose an NHL style healthy
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scratch list. Why should your number of
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pitchers, your 13 as it now is, include
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yesterday's starting or today's starting
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pitcher? You're not going to use them,
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right? I mean,
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>> wouldn't this Sorry, sorry to interrupt,
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but wouldn't this lead to more more like
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I thought we want, you know, I mean, in
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yesterday, you didn't have very many
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pitchers and you had to stretch them out
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and have these kind of like, you know,
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wouldn't that even more pitchers lead
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more starters or less starting
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>> impatient boys?
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one, you have three guys or maybe even
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four on this healthy scratch list who
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are, you know, the guys who are who are
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literally falling apart plus the plus
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the uh yesterday's starter. At the same
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time, you're you're a manager is allowed
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to pick only 11 of the his 15 or 16
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pitchers, whichever we end up with, um
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to use on a given day. And he would base
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that on the opposition. He would base it
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on the health of his own pitchers, you
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know, and he would base it on analytics.
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Pick pick what which ones, you know, are
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in shape and which ones get which guys
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out best and that and nudge the game
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back towards having people go longer.
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There's a whole bunch of other rules in
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there um including um
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can't
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>> So Jay, I'm gonna I'm gonna just uh
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quickly comment. You did report that
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Theo Epstein in the book had recommended
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lowering the number of pitchers.
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>> He's for 11
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>> to 11. The thinking that I my
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understanding of that the thinking of
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that is that if you only have 11
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pitchers on your roster,
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>> your pitchers can't overburden their arm
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because they know they have to pitch
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many more innings. And the problem we
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have now is pitchers starting pitchers
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are going five innings and they know
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they're going five. And we know that and
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then or maybe six and that they they
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they overthrow and as a result you need
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13 pitches to to to dominate. So you're
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actually proposing something that's like
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almost a hybrid where you you only have
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11.
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>> What I'm saying is look, you know, the
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relievers drop like flies, right?
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>> Yes. They're just they're not that good
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actually.
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>> They're not that good and they can only
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do one thing and and they're they're
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they're fungeible. One guy is the same
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as the next. And I have to say as a
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person of literature narrative, you
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know, the fact that you don't know, you
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know, who the guy is who's being called
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in, you might as well not have any
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numbers on their backs because they're
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all the same, right? You know, did was
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the game better when we had people like
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Mariano Rivera? I think so. I think it
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was more interesting. So yes, we have to
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nudge in whatever is the most healthy
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way starting pitching back to being like
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starting pitching. You may have noticed
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that Dave Roberts, famous for having
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hauled Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, and
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Tony Gonelin out of perfect games or no
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hitters. Um and there's there's another
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guy he pulled out strippling, right? um
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you know, let two pitchers go a complete
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game and Blake Snell eight innings. Why?
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Cuz all of his relief pitchers are dead.
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So, you know, the they have to start
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training them the way that old pitchers
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were trained. There's a reason that, you
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know, the Atlanta Braves back in the
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90s, aside from that they weren't
00:14:00
throwing Maxa 100 miles an hour, had the
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same pitchers on opening day roster and
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the end of the season roster. They
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didn't they were trained to throw more
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often,
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less hard.
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>> In fact, we we've had uh uh John Smoltz
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on the show telling us exactly that.
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Eric?
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>> Yeah. So Jane, um, just so you know, I'm
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a consider myself a baseball historian.
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Just so you know, I go to the Hall of
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Fame every year for my, uh, for the
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induction ceremony. So I love the
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history of baseball.
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>> Masel.
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>> Yeah. No, I I I it's the greatest gift
00:14:37
ever given to me as a lifetime
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membership to the National Baseball Hall
00:14:40
of Fame. Um, my question to you was, um,
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I'll throw on a slight business school
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hat here. Um, if what you're saying is
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true, then owners like making money,
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why doesn't an owner, just takes one to
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say, "Look, we're not going to run the
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game in its boring way." Now, we're
00:15:01
going to go back to the days where
00:15:03
pitchers pitch longer. We're going to go
00:15:04
back to the days where, as I always said
00:15:06
to my kids, I've never, this is true. I'
00:15:08
I've been to a thousand baseball games
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and I've never left one early, Jane,
00:15:11
because you never know what you're going
00:15:12
to see in baseball. Never. ever. But
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>> but now today you might know more often.
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>> Yeah. So why don't this is my point. Why
00:15:21
doesn't somebody break the mold go back
00:15:24
to the old days if you think by the way
00:15:26
by the way that would include by the way
00:15:28
three-hour games which appears most fans
00:15:31
don't want now. Why doesn't do that?
00:15:34
>> Not necessarily. And I think you're
00:15:35
starting to see that happening you know
00:15:38
out of desperation not out of
00:15:40
brilliance. I mean, this postseason,
00:15:42
you're seeing pitchers, starting
00:15:44
pitchers go much longer. And you know,
00:15:47
the ESPN guys, the day that I'm going to
00:15:50
mess this up, Schlitler um went was sent
00:15:54
back out to the to the mount at Yankee
00:15:57
Stadium and for the eighth inning, there
00:15:59
was a roar and it wasn't for what he had
00:16:02
already done. It was for that he was
00:16:04
being allowed to do what he could do.
00:16:07
And that's the thing. I mean, the the
00:16:10
the best story I can tell you, the
00:16:12
funniest, you all must know Bill the
00:16:14
Spaceman, Lee, who's my um new
00:16:17
boyfriend. Um and um that's hyperbolic.
00:16:21
Uh
00:16:22
>> I was like, okay,
00:16:23
>> I mean, might as well talk, I guess, is
00:16:24
what we'd say at that point, right?
00:16:26
>> But the day that uh that Dave Roberts
00:16:29
pulled Kershaw out of his perfect game,
00:16:32
and it was April 2022, he hadn't pitched
00:16:36
much. his arm had been injured the, you
00:16:38
know, the end of 2021, but he's mowing
00:16:42
them down. His pitch count is 85, right?
00:16:46
And he yanks him out.
00:16:49
Spaceman calls me in tears. I I mean,
00:16:51
I'm not being Now, I'm not being
00:16:53
hyperbolic. And I said, "Spaceman, why
00:16:56
are you crying?" And he said, "Because
00:16:58
the guy didn't get a chance to find out
00:17:00
how good he could be." And that's what's
00:17:05
missing now. Too often it's
00:17:07
shortcircuited.
00:17:09
>> Let me say, Jane, just one thing. The
00:17:10
way we talk as statisticants on the
00:17:12
show, every pitcher has good days and
00:17:15
bad days. You'd agree with that? There's
00:17:17
a and there's also heterogeneity. Some
00:17:19
pitchers are just better than others.
00:17:20
But when you get a guy like Kershaw,
00:17:22
who's one of the greatest of all times,
00:17:24
and he's having a good day, there's no
00:17:27
rational reason to take him out. you
00:17:29
have evidence that you got the good
00:17:31
Kershaw on that day and he's pitching
00:17:34
well on that day. We talk about that all
00:17:36
the time that why would you bring in a
00:17:38
reliever who is some random person who
00:17:42
may be having a bad day when you know
00:17:44
the pitcher you have out there is
00:17:45
happens to be on one of his good days.
00:17:47
We talk about this all the time.
00:17:48
>> I'm I'm just going to follow that up
00:17:49
before I turn it to you, Jane, because I
00:17:51
actually think that the analy analytics
00:17:54
are getting it wrong. There are two
00:17:56
questions that are analytical in nature
00:17:58
that they pretend to have an answer to.
00:18:00
One is somehow that pulling a pitcher
00:18:02
after the sixth inning or the seventh
00:18:04
inning with a low pitch count is saving
00:18:06
them for future injur in injury. There
00:18:08
is any data that suggests that works.
00:18:11
This magic 100 I mean what they did to
00:18:13
uh um
00:18:14
>> James Andrews
00:18:16
and I don't it's not datab based. I mean
00:18:18
what they did to um the Nationals star
00:18:20
pitcher um Straber, right? and they
00:18:22
pulled him at after
00:18:25
in the middle of early September um for
00:18:27
some reason
00:18:28
>> late late August. But Mike Rizzo did
00:18:31
that with a a thing this big that I that
00:18:34
he lent to me and I ran through it of
00:18:36
every pitcher had had Tommy John surgery
00:18:38
up to that time which was two August
00:18:41
2012 and where they hit the wall in
00:18:44
their first season after Tommy John and
00:18:47
it was at 160 innings
00:18:50
almost unanimously 160 innings.
00:18:53
>> I'd love to see that study and I don't
00:18:55
think it is a study. It's a private
00:18:57
analysis that Mike Rizzo did. But we one
00:18:59
of the things that we also point out is
00:19:00
that um and this is what Eric was
00:19:02
getting at is when you bring in five
00:19:04
relievers in a game, you're bound to run
00:19:06
into one who's having a really bad day.
00:19:08
And so it's really upsetting to see a
00:19:10
starter who's doing having a great day
00:19:11
be pulled in favor of a likelihood of of
00:19:15
one of the five relievers that are
00:19:16
coming in just blowing it. And as a
00:19:18
Yankee fan throughout the season, as
00:19:19
Eric will know, how many games did did
00:19:22
Boone blow by bringing in five
00:19:24
relievers? And I'm only gonna I'm only
00:19:26
going to counterargue here because, you
00:19:28
know, again, the the kind of
00:19:29
counterfactual that we don't get to
00:19:31
observe is what the starter would have
00:19:32
done if they hadn't been pulled. And a
00:19:36
lot of these decisions, and I'm not
00:19:38
arguing that they I think again I I I I
00:19:40
I I I dream of the days when starters go
00:19:44
longer, but I think a lot of these
00:19:45
decisions are based on like a particular
00:19:48
like their third time through the order
00:19:50
and we all know there's analytics on
00:19:52
that like you know it's their third time
00:19:53
through the order or there's a specific
00:19:55
matchup coming up and manag I do think
00:19:57
in our analytic heavy days managers are
00:20:00
very quick to pull that starter but
00:20:02
usually it's not necessarily just a
00:20:04
straightup pitch count kind of argument
00:20:06
or or or like rationale that's going
00:20:09
into these decisions.
00:20:10
>> How do you know that?
00:20:12
>> Well, just based on what they say after
00:20:14
the game when asked why they pulled the
00:20:16
>> say after the game,
00:20:18
>> including that it was the manager.
00:20:21
>> Sure.
00:20:22
>> Whose decision is it?
00:20:24
>> All those decisions are made pregame by
00:20:26
baseball ops guys.
00:20:27
>> I mean, at certain teams that's
00:20:29
certainly the case, but I mean that's
00:20:30
not I think
00:20:31
>> the Yankees.
00:20:32
>> Well, yeah, we know. Yeah, the Yankees
00:20:34
are a case but but but very analyt
00:20:41
this style of pitching has so corrupted
00:20:45
the arms so destroyed the arms of the
00:20:48
relievers that they're being forced
00:20:51
without realizing that they're doing the
00:20:53
right thing back towards using you know
00:20:56
starters more and you somebody asked the
00:20:59
question why don't they change um
00:21:01
there's a professor of economics who
00:21:04
specializes in entertainment and uh
00:21:06
sports economics particularly baseball
00:21:09
really guys at Wisconsin lacrosse and I
00:21:13
said I said the same thing to him why
00:21:15
why don't they do something different
00:21:17
and he said well there's something
00:21:18
called path dependence which is an
00:21:20
actual thing in economics which means
00:21:23
that if you've gone along and invested
00:21:25
an incredible amount of money in
00:21:27
developing a gasg guzzling uh you know
00:21:32
catal AC and Escalot or whatever the
00:21:34
hell it is. Um, and you know, you're
00:21:37
paying people and the the the line the,
00:21:39
you know, the factory is all set up and
00:21:41
it's all, you know, and the Japanese
00:21:43
come along and produce small cars with
00:21:46
lots of um better gas mileage for one
00:21:50
year. Like what is it 79? Is that when
00:21:51
that happened? And you know, you sit and
00:21:53
you look at yourself and you go, "Oh, do
00:21:56
I throw it all out? It's been working
00:21:58
for how many decades, right? Do I throw
00:22:02
it all out based on one year or even two
00:22:05
years of evidence? How do I know it's
00:22:07
not going to come back to where I am?
00:22:10
And baseball was acted like the car
00:22:14
manufacturers in the United States. And
00:22:16
and that's and the same thing is true of
00:22:20
um the copycat owners and general
00:22:22
managers. Somebody is going to do
00:22:25
exactly what you're saying. Somebody is
00:22:27
going to say
00:22:30
last year Jim Cot, Paul Molader, Rod
00:22:34
Karu went to the twins um spring
00:22:38
training. You always have, you know,
00:22:40
these special adviserss show up and hang
00:22:42
out at spring training and they were
00:22:45
literally put in quarantine. they were
00:22:48
not allowed to talk to um any of the
00:22:52
current players and uh Korea who you
00:22:56
know blessedly went back to Houston said
00:22:59
within earshot of Jim Cot you know what
00:23:02
do those have to tell me well let me
00:23:06
just say they might have a thing or two
00:23:08
to say and this is bigger than baseball
00:23:13
this is what we're facing in the United
00:23:15
States of America today. You know, the
00:23:18
the lack of respect for experience that
00:23:22
is or intelligence that is a kind of
00:23:24
intelligence not verified by big data,
00:23:28
right? The idea that that seeing games
00:23:31
over 50 years might have taught you
00:23:34
something that you know you can't find
00:23:36
in a computer.
00:23:39
I mean, it's really amazing to me that
00:23:41
the only science in this country that is
00:23:43
not under duress and having everybody
00:23:46
fired is data science.
00:23:49
I mean, how can you how can you base how
00:23:53
can you say, you know, oh, you know,
00:23:56
Dusty Baker's in uniform for nearly a
00:23:58
thousand games, but that doesn't matter.
00:24:01
>> So, I mean, so we definitely have heard
00:24:03
a lot about the analytic side, but one
00:24:05
of the things that the title of your
00:24:06
book is Make Me Commissioner.
00:24:08
I would like to hear some of the other
00:24:10
suggestions you have to potentially
00:24:12
change baseball and make it more return
00:24:15
to more of its past. Not not going to
00:24:17
see that because I think one of the
00:24:18
things that that that I didn't really
00:24:20
get from your book which which is the
00:24:21
the rise of the other sports
00:24:23
particularly football and their
00:24:25
eventdriven
00:24:27
interest where there's one game a week
00:24:28
for just 16 weeks maybe some playoffs.
00:24:31
It's a completely different phenomenon
00:24:33
based on a different time and a
00:24:34
different way of engaging. We're never
00:24:36
going to get football to go away and let
00:24:38
baseball go back. So, how do we get
00:24:40
baseball to be to capitalize on its
00:24:43
strengths and fill the void that's
00:24:44
created because you have these event
00:24:46
games and I think there's a lot to do.
00:24:47
What would you suggest?
00:24:48
>> Um, I'm going to say something I'm not
00:24:51
supposed to say, but I'm going to say it
00:24:53
because I'm really pissed off today at
00:24:55
my publisher. The only industry I know
00:24:58
that is as badly run, managed,
00:25:01
publicized, and marketed as baseball
00:25:05
is publishing. They don't know who their
00:25:07
audience is.
00:25:09
>> They have no idea how to start to build
00:25:13
back a base of of fans. Um, they're just
00:25:19
stuck where they were. They don't know
00:25:22
what to do. So they just keep doing the
00:25:24
same thing over.
00:25:26
>> Yes.
00:25:28
>> Shame.
00:25:28
>> Just I I mean I
00:25:32
>> that baseball has been pretty proactive
00:25:34
at least in the last five or six years
00:25:36
about actually trying to change the
00:25:38
game, speeding up speed of play.
00:25:42
>> H
00:25:44
23 24 25. Okay. Three years. Thank you.
00:25:48
>> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. uh over the last few
00:25:50
years, baseball has been kind of
00:25:52
proactive. I I mean, just in terms of
00:25:54
like it, you know, it's been inducing
00:25:56
more rule changes,
00:25:58
>> maybe out of desperation or need uh than
00:26:00
most other sports I see around. Do you
00:26:02
kind of feel like those aren't
00:26:04
particularly impactful or, you know,
00:26:07
just a drop in the bucket? They're not
00:26:09
anywhere near the what's needed?
00:26:10
>> Well, I don't think it's going to be
00:26:12
football. I don't think being a 12
00:26:14
billion dollar industry is a terrible
00:26:16
thing. But having the difference between
00:26:20
now and then is all that inventory as
00:26:23
you know economists like to talk about
00:26:25
both in the number of games and in the
00:26:28
number of seats is a really bad look. If
00:26:31
you went to a game in 19
00:26:33
33 and half the seats were empty at
00:26:36
Yankee Stadium. You knew that, but you
00:26:38
didn't see it. Right? Every game when
00:26:40
you when they pan the stands and there's
00:26:43
nobody there is a really big problem
00:26:46
because it says nobody else is going.
00:26:48
Why should you? Right. Um they have made
00:26:52
some serious gains based on improving
00:26:55
the pace of the game and the length of
00:26:58
the game. Um, but you know, here's that
00:27:02
that question about the other day where
00:27:03
they had the the why why is it okay to
00:27:06
let a postseason game go as long as it's
00:27:08
supposed to without a stupid
00:27:10
ghostrunner, but it's not okay in the
00:27:12
regular season.
00:27:13
>> Yeah, I hate the ghost runner. So, like,
00:27:16
>> you know,
00:27:17
>> yeah,
00:27:18
>> and it's analytics has worked to the
00:27:21
benefit of football and basketball.
00:27:24
>> It had. Yes, it had. Your
00:27:25
>> sport was a better game because of
00:27:27
analytics. Yeah, they're they're younger
00:27:29
sports, right? And they are able to be
00:27:33
uh responsive, you know, dextrous um in
00:27:37
a way that baseball historically has
00:27:39
not. Baseball has its feet stuck in
00:27:41
wherever, you know, sand, quicksand,
00:27:44
whatever it is. They don't respond
00:27:46
quickly. They didn't respond in the 70s
00:27:49
and 80s to the arrival of of the NFL.
00:27:52
And I didn't look and go, maybe we need
00:27:54
a Pete Rosel. Oh, no. Let's stick with
00:27:57
Buoie Cune, rightwing Bible belt.
00:28:02
>> Let me So, um, one thing, you know, it's
00:28:04
clear that that analytics has changed
00:28:06
baseball for the worse and the other
00:28:07
sports are the better, but I will
00:28:09
>> more exciting.
00:28:10
>> The other sports have not because they
00:28:12
don't have history, but you I'll just
00:28:14
take a quick story and get your reaction
00:28:16
to it. Um about three years ago, I
00:28:18
reconnected with an old friend, one of
00:28:20
my very best friends from forever. And
00:28:22
we used to go to baseball games together
00:28:24
as as middle school and early high
00:28:26
school. And um we decided to meet at
00:28:29
Yankee Stadium and like old times, we
00:28:31
were going to go get there early and
00:28:32
watch batting practice. So we show up
00:28:34
and guess what? They're not letting
00:28:36
anybody in.
00:28:37
>> There's gates gates closed and they
00:28:39
didn't let us in until after all of that
00:28:42
was over. And I mean, it seems like the
00:28:44
most foolish thing on earth that the
00:28:46
student that to not and here we're we're
00:28:48
old folks trying to relive our
00:28:49
childhood, but we got drawn into
00:28:51
baseball because of interactions with
00:28:53
players on the field pregame. And
00:28:56
they've taken that from us. And that has
00:28:58
nothing to do with analytics.
00:29:00
>> I agree. And you notice that's one of my
00:29:02
fixes, right?
00:29:03
>> Um is to bring batting practice back.
00:29:06
>> Yes. I guess you didn't read it that
00:29:08
carefully. No, I I wasn't sure you you
00:29:10
So, one of the things is that they'll
00:29:11
say, and I went and talked to some of my
00:29:12
to my, you know, former students who
00:29:15
work for teams is that the players like
00:29:17
to go and work out in the cages
00:29:19
underneath. They don't like to come up
00:29:21
>> who's paying the salary. I mean, there's
00:29:24
got to be rules that say you cannot go
00:29:26
downstairs and be on the traject machine
00:29:29
every day
00:29:31
>> because among other things, you know
00:29:32
what? Trac machines don't make mistakes,
00:29:36
right? How are you going to adjust to
00:29:38
that in the real time, right? What what
00:29:41
got Otani to remember how to hit? He
00:29:44
went outside and took batting practice
00:29:46
on the field from live batting practice.
00:29:49
That was the what changed his trajectory
00:29:52
this last um you know uh series. Um Dave
00:29:58
Roberts is the one who said to me, you
00:30:00
know, they flipped the order of batting
00:30:04
practice. So now if you're if you're if
00:30:06
you're once the gates are open, the per
00:30:09
the people taking batting practice to
00:30:10
the extent they do it on the field at
00:30:12
all are the visiting team.
00:30:14
>> Mhm.
00:30:15
>> You can't you can't see your guys,
00:30:17
right? Um and and there's no
00:30:21
requirement, no recognition by the union
00:30:24
or any of the players that there is an
00:30:27
obligation that it's an entertainment
00:30:29
business. You know that this is part of
00:30:32
your job, guys. and that's out the
00:30:35
window. And you know, somebody's got to,
00:30:39
you know, smack them upside the head.
00:30:42
Um, you know,
00:30:43
>> is that a union issue or is that just an
00:30:45
owner can demand it at some point?
00:30:48
>> Well, they they'd have to put it in the
00:30:49
CBA.
00:30:51
You know, um, you know, a lot of the
00:30:53
things that I've suggested are so
00:30:55
simple. Flip the batting practice, let
00:30:56
people in earlier, open the gates
00:30:58
earlier. That's how I became a Mickey
00:31:00
Manel fan because my grandmother lived
00:31:03
two blocks away and I would go down and
00:31:05
you know
00:31:07
walk around in the ballpark and wait to
00:31:10
see him hit. And that's you have to let
00:31:13
people gain purchase on the game in a
00:31:17
way that is different from the handsoff.
00:31:22
You know, everything's separate. There's
00:31:23
gates. There's there's fences. There's
00:31:26
locks. There's, you know, all the places
00:31:29
you can't go as a place as opposed to
00:31:31
where you can go. You know what? There
00:31:33
are people who can't go to baseball
00:31:35
games because they can't afford baseball
00:31:36
food.
00:31:38
You used to be able to bring a sandwich.
00:31:41
Okay, they're not going to do that
00:31:43
because they're rich, greedy bastards.
00:31:45
But, okay, why don't you
00:31:46
>> And in Yankee Stadium, I will say you
00:31:48
can bring your own You can bring your
00:31:49
sandwich to Yankee Stadium.
00:31:50
>> Same in Phillies. Um, you can still
00:31:52
bring sound [ __ ] ballpark,
00:31:54
>> but why not have, you know, they all
00:31:55
created picnic areas. Why can't that be
00:31:58
designated as a place that if you want
00:32:00
to bring food from home, bring it. Go
00:32:03
ahead, advertise it.
00:32:05
It's ridiculous. An $18 beer. I mean,
00:32:09
unbelievable. Um, I think, okay, I think
00:32:13
they should let all kids under the age
00:32:14
of 10 in free with accompanied by a soap
00:32:18
or adult. Um, imagine the public
00:32:21
relations heist, right? Um, when Rob
00:32:25
Manford or myself, my predecessor or me
00:32:28
gets up and says, "You know what? We've
00:32:30
thought about this a lot. We've done a
00:32:32
lot of research. We've talked to a lot
00:32:34
of people and we really do want more
00:32:37
people in ballparks and we recognize
00:32:40
that it's very expensive to come, you
00:32:43
know, and to come more than once with a
00:32:46
family of four is prohibitive. We get
00:32:48
it." Okay. So, here's a list of the
00:32:50
things we're going to do to make
00:32:52
baseball more available to you. And
00:32:54
starting with grandma, grandpa, whoever
00:32:58
takes a 10-year-old kid to the ballpark,
00:33:01
the kid gets in free
00:33:03
>> for free because baseball has inventory.
00:33:05
That is the thing that it has above any
00:33:06
other. We have lots and lots and lots of
00:33:08
games.
00:33:08
>> That's the problem. Inventory was okay
00:33:11
when
00:33:12
>> back in the day though, you know, Yankee
00:33:14
Stadium wasn't full for Joe. What's
00:33:17
attendance records are are modern
00:33:19
though. The the biggest I mean Dodgers
00:33:21
and the Yankees and Red Sox, they're
00:33:23
they're hitting attendance records.
00:33:25
That's way beyond what they used to in
00:33:26
back in the day when the games were in
00:33:28
the daytime and and uh people couldn't
00:33:30
get out as easily. Um so it's not I mean
00:33:33
I don't think the problem is is big.
00:33:35
>> Can I can I whoever asked what you know
00:33:38
what's going to change it between
00:33:39
baseball and football.
00:33:42
Um, I've done a lot of work in a
00:33:44
previous iteration on CTE. Um, when they
00:33:49
can diagnose CTE in a 14-year-old, and
00:33:53
God knows they have it already because
00:33:55
they've been banging their heads against
00:33:57
each other since they were seven without
00:33:59
the musculature to support, you know,
00:34:02
the head and the neck. Um, people are
00:34:05
going to start rethinking putting their
00:34:07
kids in um in tackle football. And the
00:34:10
NFL knows it. And you know how you how
00:34:13
they know, you know, they know it
00:34:14
because they're the ones supporting and
00:34:17
building up flag football. They know
00:34:20
it's coming. Ball doesn't seem to know
00:34:24
it's coming. And you know, the the
00:34:27
tagline, you know, come back to
00:34:29
baseball, the game your kid might
00:34:31
remember.
00:34:33
I mean, get get a little tough. Stop
00:34:37
being such [ __ ] I mean, they're just
00:34:39
unbelievable. They're
00:34:42
>> MLB just definitely has his issues as we
00:34:44
we've talked about on our show. So, I
00:34:46
think it's time for us to end our our
00:34:48
conversation as we have our first show.
00:34:50
Oh, no. We go I we'd love to talk for
00:34:52
hours. I personally I know Eric and and
00:34:54
Shane and Kade we haven't heard from,
00:34:56
but um it we we these are these are
00:34:59
issues that are very dear to our heart.
00:35:00
We are guys who've been watching
00:35:02
baseball for a very very long time. And
00:35:04
frankly, I do I'll finish with a
00:35:06
comment. Um for someone who has attended
00:35:08
basketball and football and hockey um uh
00:35:10
and baseball games are the only ones
00:35:12
regularly attended by families. Um and
00:35:14
you don't see that in football and the
00:35:16
other sports um because there are fewer
00:35:18
games and and they're expensive, but
00:35:20
baseball is something that families go
00:35:21
to and and they it's and they enjoy as
00:35:24
as a family. They need to capitalize on
00:35:26
that to uh to bring back the interest.
00:35:28
You know what I'd like to know from you
00:35:30
guys? It'd be very helpful to me.
00:35:32
>> Where do you think analytics has served
00:35:35
baseball badly?
00:35:39
>> Do we have time for one round quick
00:35:40
round? You want to go around Kade? We
00:35:41
haven't heard from you. Kade, you want
00:35:42
to tell us?
00:35:44
>> Audi's just getting me back for all the
00:35:46
years when I miss his hand.
00:35:48
>> Yeah. Um my position is that analytics
00:35:53
analytics is nothing more than
00:35:57
optimization.
00:35:58
>> It's like advancing. It's facilitating
00:36:01
optimization.
00:36:02
>> Yeah. Efficiency.
00:36:02
>> So if you don't if you don't I didn't
00:36:04
say efficiency. Optimization. So
00:36:06
whatever you're trying to optimize,
00:36:08
maximize this, minimize that, you're
00:36:10
going to get more of it if you
00:36:12
understand the inputs and outputs
00:36:14
better. So if you don't like what's
00:36:17
happening, don't blame analytics. Change
00:36:19
the rules. Which I was what I admire
00:36:20
about your book. You're like, make me
00:36:22
commissioner. I'll change the rules. But
00:36:23
I think this whole grrowsing about
00:36:25
analytics is wildly off base because
00:36:27
mostly that's just optimizing subject to
00:36:30
the rules. And it turns out that some
00:36:33
games have rules that are more robust to
00:36:36
quick intense optimization. And other
00:36:40
games need to adjust the rules. So that
00:36:43
is slightly defensive, but
00:36:46
>> I agree with you and like I said, I I
00:36:48
understand that the analytics that that
00:36:52
third time through the order is harder
00:36:54
for a pitcher. I get it. You see a guy
00:36:56
more when the leagues were smaller and
00:36:58
you pitched a guy a guy you faced a guy
00:37:00
more often. All that stuff is it's
00:37:03
obviously irrefutable.
00:37:06
But I said to my friend Pekco Pasoy, who
00:37:09
is the head of the MIT um analytics lab,
00:37:13
you know, okay, you guys wrecked
00:37:15
baseball, you know, shouldn't you fix
00:37:17
it? And so we came up with a handheld
00:37:21
game that can be played on mom's phone
00:37:24
if the kid doesn't have one at a
00:37:26
ballpark where you can interact with
00:37:29
with the players on the field. There was
00:37:32
some talk by the bananas that they were
00:37:34
going to put um QR codes on jerseys um
00:37:38
so that you could scan in the previous
00:37:41
atbat, you could scan in highlights, you
00:37:44
could send the guy a question, whatever.
00:37:46
They have to speak to kids and a younger
00:37:49
generation in the language that those
00:37:51
kids speak and it ain't ours. That's for
00:37:54
sure. what you're talking about, Jane,
00:37:55
you're talking about changing the fan
00:37:56
experience, which I think is really
00:37:58
important and the batting practice
00:37:59
flipping and the opening the gates
00:38:01
early. That's that's one way to do that.
00:38:02
What Kate is referring to is changing
00:38:04
the way the game is actually played.
00:38:05
>> I understand that.
00:38:06
>> And so, but I do think for example,
00:38:08
making the roster 11 starting pitch
00:38:11
starting pitches will will change the
00:38:13
parameters and therefore you'll have to
00:38:14
change the way pitching occurs. Another
00:38:16
potential change would be you can't pull
00:38:18
a starter unless you have a real reason
00:38:20
to do so after a certain number of
00:38:21
>> That's in the book. I saw that those are
00:38:23
things in your book, right? And yeah,
00:38:24
and these are ways to change the
00:38:26
parameters of the game, but you can't
00:38:28
change the way the batter is swinging,
00:38:30
but I do think the an analytics have
00:38:32
made some errors. Um, and those errors
00:38:34
will eventually straighten out. Um, and
00:38:36
one of the things is they haven't really
00:38:37
understood the interaction of players.
00:38:39
They tend to add up everybody's
00:38:41
contribution in what we call linear
00:38:43
functional, an additive linear
00:38:44
functional. But baseball actually has a
00:38:46
lot of interaction. And I think they
00:38:47
sort of missed that. And so what happens
00:38:49
now is you'll have a player who hits 35
00:38:51
40 home runs with 70 RBI's. Why? Because
00:38:53
there's nobody on base when they hit
00:38:55
them. And that requires a mixture which
00:38:57
they don't think they have quite gotten
00:38:58
right. I think it it's telling that you
00:39:01
tell us you we learned from you how the
00:39:03
decisions that that the Yankees make
00:39:04
come from the front office. They can't
00:39:06
win a playoff series and something's
00:39:08
going wrong there with their analytic
00:39:10
staff and and they haven't diagnosed it.
00:39:13
Um so there's an enormous amount we can
00:39:15
talk about. I think Kad's uh reaction is
00:39:17
actually good and and you actually catch
00:39:18
that in your book because you did speak
00:39:20
to Sam Andre Cohen who is one of my
00:39:22
close friends and former students who
00:39:24
told me and many times I've spoken to
00:39:25
him is is just that you know you can't
00:39:27
make us we're we're going to optimize
00:39:29
and you can't stop us and don't expect
00:39:31
that to happen. If you want things to be
00:39:33
different you got to change the
00:39:35
parameters.
00:39:36
>> Sam said that to me exactly. I mean I
00:39:37
think the rule that you can't take a a
00:39:39
pitcher out until or unless he's given
00:39:42
up a run in an inning.
00:39:44
>> Mhm. Yeah, how about that? You know, you
00:39:47
can put in extreme measures, you know,
00:39:50
now and um that people are going to go,
00:39:53
>> you know, and and moderate later. That's
00:39:56
the problem with baseball is they
00:39:57
haven't been willing to get off what
00:40:00
they've done forever and and change it.
00:40:03
So, they just, you know, the said to me,
00:40:05
uh probably not supposed to repeat it,
00:40:07
you know, the qu there was no
00:40:08
leadership. It was less a fair. It
00:40:11
wasn't that the game wasn't changing.
00:40:13
was changing all the time to the to the
00:40:15
game, you know, we saw up till 2021 when
00:40:18
there was 3 minutes and 52 seconds
00:40:21
between balls put in play, right? Um it
00:40:24
was just not
00:40:27
change that was guided. There were no
00:40:29
tugboats helping steer that boat. And
00:40:32
that's a big boat to steer, you know. It
00:40:34
was it was going to go somewhere. It was
00:40:36
going to do something. It had to. You
00:40:38
know, these guys are bigger and
00:40:39
stronger. Are they better baseball
00:40:41
players? A lot of them are. Not all of
00:40:44
them. A lot of them are just bigger and
00:40:45
stronger.
00:40:46
>> Um but it's that they got caught in path
00:40:51
dependence. I think Michael's exactly
00:40:53
right about that. And um I have a whole
00:40:56
ton of suggestions in there. I I
00:40:59
suggested and somebody was Petco was
00:41:01
going to do this for me. What if you put
00:41:05
up a plexiglass wall um like what
00:41:09
surrounds a hockey rink in the outfield
00:41:13
so that you didn't so sheep home runs
00:41:15
didn't go for cheap
00:41:17
>> so like a green monster a little higher
00:41:20
everywhere so you didn't get
00:41:21
>> but it but it would be uh but it would
00:41:23
be see-through so imagine sitting behind
00:41:26
that when you know Aaron Judge goes
00:41:28
plowing into it right so it would force
00:41:31
there to be a outfielders who can
00:41:33
actually field and throw. And it would
00:41:37
would create more doubles and triples,
00:41:39
which is what fans say they want and
00:41:41
which are more exciting than just
00:41:43
watching some another behemoth hit the
00:41:46
ball over the, you know, two rows into
00:41:49
the, you know,
00:41:49
>> even non-behemoths hit the ball. Anyway,
00:41:51
I'd love to I thank you so much for
00:41:53
joining us.
00:41:54
>> I'm Moneyball. We have a second half of
00:41:56
our show to do. So, um, it's been a
00:41:59
pleasure to bring you on to our show,
00:42:00
Jane, and for our readers,
00:42:01
>> the guys
00:42:03
make them buy the book.
00:42:06
>> Absolutely, Kade.
00:42:09
>> That you win the Blue Award of our 11
00:42:12
years on the show. And that's an
00:42:14
accomplishment. That's fun. Actually, if
00:42:16
you don't, you might get beeped out.
00:42:17
Actually, back in the day, you wouldn't
00:42:19
have gotten beeped out, but Dion may
00:42:20
have beeped. You're gonna have more
00:42:21
beeps than anybody's ever had on this
00:42:23
show, which we enjoyed.
00:42:24
>> We do. I don't like the thing but uh as
00:42:27
academics we like to use
00:42:28
>> writer
00:42:29
>> know how I got answers in locker rooms
00:42:32
by speaking the way they speak
00:42:34
>> of course uh anyway we enjoyed having
00:42:37
you and we look forward to uh discussing
00:42:39
I I'd be delighted to talk the all the
00:42:41
other books as well which I've read with
00:42:43
great uh with great joy. So thank you
00:42:45
once again Jane.
00:42:46
>> So that concludes our
00:42:48
>> All right welcome back to the second
00:42:50
half of Wharton Moneyball which won't be
00:42:52
a half. We had an amazing interview with
00:42:54
Jane Levy uh Levy. I mispronounced her
00:42:57
name once. I don't want to do it again.
00:42:59
Um author of the new book Make Me
00:43:01
Commissioner, I Know What's Wrong with
00:43:03
Baseball and How to Fix It. She
00:43:04
certainly has lots of ideas. Um so uh we
00:43:08
enjoyed uh listening to them and I'm
00:43:10
sure we'll be taking some of them apart
00:43:12
uh going forward. Um in fact, maybe we
00:43:13
can start by asking any of you guys to
00:43:15
have any obvious reactions to some of
00:43:17
those suggestions um that she brought
00:43:19
about. I'm not a huge fan of one of the
00:43:22
things we didn't talk about was the
00:43:24
conservative nature of baseball which
00:43:25
makes its history really so interesting
00:43:28
to us goes back to the 1880s and it's
00:43:30
still more or less the same game. You
00:43:32
really change it you don't have that. I
00:43:34
know that's something that I can think
00:43:35
about. What do you guys think? I think I
00:43:37
think baseball just quickly I think
00:43:39
baseball should um experiment with stuff
00:43:43
and just like we know they're you know
00:43:45
Shane has been a big fan I think Shane
00:43:46
right of the uh electronic umpires you
00:43:49
know but that they tested in the minor
00:43:51
leagues and they're then they're going
00:43:52
to bring it up and um I think that's
00:43:55
what we should do but I completely agree
00:43:58
with everything that Cade said is that
00:44:00
data science allows for optimization and
00:44:03
teams you know people have it's also a
00:44:06
principle agent problem. You could say,
00:44:07
"Boy, it'd be great if the fans enjoyed
00:44:09
themselves." Great. And I'll be out of a
00:44:10
job because my I'm not my team's not
00:44:13
winning games and I'm not utilizing my
00:44:16
pitchers in a way that's optimizing what
00:44:18
the rules say I should optimize. And so
00:44:21
I liked your thoughts. Look, the
00:44:23
question I would have asked her about
00:44:25
was, you know, you know, Audi, the thing
00:44:27
I care about the most is the
00:44:28
comparability
00:44:30
of baseball. And that to me is what's
00:44:33
been damaged the most. You can't tell me
00:44:35
that a statline from 2025 can be
00:44:38
directly compared to someone from 1955.
00:44:41
And we all want to do that and it's hard
00:44:44
to do.
00:44:44
>> But but hold on. But but that's that's a
00:44:46
challenge we have in all sports. And in
00:44:48
fact, part of our trade is knowing how
00:44:50
to do that. Well, right. It's surprising
00:44:52
to me that you want one sport to be
00:44:54
different or that you would
00:44:55
>> Well, I think baseball more than most
00:44:57
holds on to its history and it has like
00:44:59
twice the history probably. We don't do
00:45:01
that with basketball and football and
00:45:02
hockey because we don't we recognize
00:45:04
it's not doable.
00:45:05
>> We era we era adjust and all those
00:45:08
>> we do it but we don't do it. We don't
00:45:10
have the we don't have the the
00:45:12
traditional I the straightforward
00:45:14
counting stats that are comparable in
00:45:17
>> like nobody would nobody would try and
00:45:18
compare Patrick Mahomes's career to
00:45:20
Terry Bradshaw like oh look number
00:45:23
people do exactly that. That's ex That's
00:45:25
exactly an enterprise that some people
00:45:27
take.
00:45:27
>> Well, I I guess
00:45:30
you'd have to use You could not use raw
00:45:32
numbers to do that comparison.
00:45:33
>> K. Do you know what the the most number
00:45:35
of touchdowns thrown by a quarterback in
00:45:37
a season is?
00:45:38
>> Well, I don't I could
00:45:39
>> I do. Of course you do.
00:45:41
>> But that's No, no, no. That's my point.
00:45:44
You know, you know the maximum number of
00:45:46
home runs hit in a season. You do.
00:45:48
>> I think we probably even know, you know,
00:45:50
when the last time someone hit 400 in
00:45:52
baseball. I think we know each row has
00:45:54
the most number of hits in a season at
00:45:56
two.
00:45:57
>> I've got a great
00:45:59
to say it maybe.
00:46:01
>> Okay. Well, this is this is actually an
00:46:02
interesting philosophical question. How
00:46:04
we prize that
00:46:05
>> for in
00:46:07
a big one for B.
00:46:09
>> No, I I was just saying even even
00:46:12
baseball has ones like for example,
00:46:14
here's one that just recently happened
00:46:16
like you know yesterday. George Springer
00:46:19
that that I I think is is a total but is
00:46:21
not really comparable over baseball
00:46:23
history. George Springer is now tied for
00:46:26
third all time in terms of postseason
00:46:28
home runs.
00:46:30
>> I mean players for many years and it was
00:46:32
good,
00:46:33
>> right? And and the playoffs have
00:46:34
expanded. Could you like Here's a here's
00:46:37
a fun little like exercise. The other
00:46:39
five top postseason home run hitters.
00:46:42
They're almost all recent dudes because
00:46:44
playoffs have expanded. playoffs have
00:46:46
expanded and that makes it comparable.
00:46:47
I'm going to throw out one thing about
00:46:48
baseball that makes really it's not uh
00:46:51
but but baseball is unique among
00:46:54
professional sports that it is both a
00:46:56
team sport and an individual sport. You
00:46:58
cannot really genuinely say that about
00:47:00
the other sports that there's a genuine
00:47:02
individual sport component to it. when a
00:47:05
pitcher
00:47:05
>> typical quarterbacks in football.
00:47:07
>> Um, yeah, when when a pitcher faces a
00:47:10
batter, that's a one-on-one and it's uh
00:47:12
and and over the course of the season,
00:47:14
you get statistics that are highly
00:47:16
individual. You don't have to worry
00:47:17
about offensive linemen and and
00:47:19
defensive coordination and schemes and
00:47:22
that and both basketball and football
00:47:24
and hockey that drive those those lack
00:47:26
of comparisons because you don't know
00:47:28
the millu and it matters so much. So I
00:47:30
think also partly maybe it is to Jane's
00:47:32
point also because there are so many
00:47:35
baseball games
00:47:37
>> like to make the sport I'll call it
00:47:39
maybe more interesting we have to be
00:47:42
able to look backwards look forward
00:47:44
compare this person to that person I
00:47:46
mean I I think I actually think more
00:47:48
during baseball games in other words of
00:47:51
thinking about the historical relevance
00:47:52
or the rarity of what I'm seeing because
00:47:55
it dramatically is required for me for
00:47:59
the entertainment
00:48:01
So that's amazing. This is this is
00:48:03
exactly what I'm curious about is that
00:48:04
this is a philosophical question like
00:48:06
what do you value in the sport? I would
00:48:08
have thought I'm not saying it's wrong.
00:48:10
It's just like this is eye opening to
00:48:12
me. You'd have thought it was like the
00:48:14
quality of play in front of you in the
00:48:16
game, the the an arc of a season and a
00:48:18
particular team that accomplishes the
00:48:20
the Red Sox finally winning the world
00:48:21
championship or whatever. And Erica
00:48:23
said, "No, no, we value the ability to
00:48:26
compare across errors. We value the
00:48:28
ability to think in these about these
00:48:31
individual accomplishments in objective
00:48:34
term like absolute terms. Absolute
00:48:35
terms. That's interesting. I think
00:48:37
that's is unique about baseball. I mean
00:48:39
I wouldn't have known that's true but
00:48:41
that's that could be true.
00:48:44
>> I think second chain it is funny that
00:48:47
Eric is basically saying baseball
00:48:49
there's so much baseball it gets boring.
00:48:51
I need to think about these other things
00:48:53
in order. No, it discreet nature means
00:48:56
that these kind of tabulation events,
00:48:58
there's always some kind of unique
00:48:59
numerical kind of thing happening. I do
00:49:01
love that about baseball, but kind of I
00:49:03
do think we can all agree that this the
00:49:06
actual kind of onfield game, you know,
00:49:09
we would like to kind of get it to a
00:49:12
little bit I I think it's maybe improved
00:49:14
in the last couple years, but we'd like
00:49:15
to get it to away from just as far as
00:49:17
the fan experience goes away from this
00:49:19
three true outcome. Let me ask you about
00:49:21
that launch angle. Let me ask let me ask
00:49:23
about that in a way that connects to an
00:49:25
event uh which is last night's game
00:49:27
seven that we're recording on Tuesday.
00:49:28
Game seven in the AL was last night and
00:49:31
I I turned it on early. I'm on the East
00:49:34
Coast. I don't stay up that late to
00:49:35
watch baseball. So I went to bed and
00:49:37
missed most of the action. But if I'm
00:49:38
not mistaken, at least the last few run
00:49:42
events, like maybe all the Mariners and
00:49:44
then obviously the big one for the Jays,
00:49:46
they were all home runs. So everything
00:49:48
was home. Well, that was a multi multi
00:49:50
run. There's a lot there was a lot of on
00:49:52
bait. There was a lot of other stuff
00:49:54
happening in the game.
00:49:54
>> Right. So that's I mean Right. It's like
00:49:56
those home runs and those moments that's
00:49:58
not that's not boring, right? I mean
00:50:00
those were all massive moments.
00:50:03
>> No, no, it's it's it's more that I think
00:50:06
you know like again like a team that can
00:50:09
do both home runs and kind of generate
00:50:11
offense in other ways. I think it's more
00:50:12
adaptable for playoffs and we've kind of
00:50:14
already discussed that with the Yankees
00:50:15
on the other side of the the equation. I
00:50:17
think just again for a fan experience,
00:50:19
home runs are very fun, but like it's
00:50:21
also like, you know, again that home run
00:50:23
or nothing kind of, you know, like where
00:50:26
there's not even balls in play
00:50:28
happening. You know, I I think you kind
00:50:29
of want, as far as action goes, you want
00:50:32
people on base. You don't like a bunch
00:50:34
of solo home runs is
00:50:36
>> controlling for the same amount of
00:50:38
offensive output less interesting than
00:50:40
other ways of
00:50:41
>> What do we see? What's the What's the
00:50:42
most interesting moment that's happened
00:50:44
in the playoffs? my claim other than
00:50:46
Otani setting aside Otani's best game in
00:50:48
the history of baseball setting aside
00:50:50
which is an individual performance grand
00:50:52
slam
00:50:52
>> the diamond that would that eventual
00:50:54
performance was makes it so interesting
00:50:56
because they walked away with that game
00:50:57
easily. It wasn't it wasn't like a tight
00:50:59
game. It wasn't a wasn't a Springer home
00:51:00
run or an Aaron Judge home run. It was a
00:51:03
it was wasn't a moment. It was a it was
00:51:04
a display of of athletic prowess that of
00:51:07
the likes we probably have never seen of
00:51:09
in baseball. Like I think that's a
00:51:12
point8 war for Otani for that game.
00:51:14
>> Well, that's that that's that's assuming
00:51:16
that adds that way. That's not possible.
00:51:18
>> I mean, I don't think I don't think
00:51:19
there's any model base. I think that's
00:51:20
just sort of what they
00:51:22
could do the whole show on Otani and
00:51:25
game four. That that could happen. But
00:51:27
but I'm asking like the how did the
00:51:28
Phillies get knocked out? The play the
00:51:30
last play of the Phillies season.
00:51:32
Look, that was an era.
00:51:35
It was there's no there's like a very
00:51:38
far from home run, very far from the
00:51:39
three- tree outcomes. A lot of
00:51:40
interesting things happening to get to
00:51:41
that point.
00:51:43
But that was a mess. That was a that was
00:51:47
there was a walk issued earlier in the
00:51:49
game leading to a run that was a very
00:51:52
bad call. And people point to that and
00:51:54
go, "How did he blow that?"
00:51:55
>> Kade Kate brings up a very interesting
00:51:57
point. I agree with you. despite
00:51:59
obviously I was rooting for the
00:52:00
Phillies. That was a beautiful mess.
00:52:02
>> A beautiful mess.
00:52:03
>> You know what I do love that innings
00:52:05
you'll never forget and and um
00:52:09
>> more base runners play more bang bang
00:52:12
kind of events where stuff like that can
00:52:14
happen is more compelling baseball. I
00:52:16
totally agree with you guys.
00:52:18
So maybe you know what Kate also pointed
00:52:22
out to Jane Levy which I think was
00:52:23
appropriate was you know it's clear that
00:52:27
the right answer if there is a right
00:52:29
answer is what people struggle with
00:52:31
today when they you know program AI
00:52:33
engines and AI and Shane know this well
00:52:36
>> what is the objective function you
00:52:38
you're trying to optimize against and
00:52:40
it's clear that going back to 1920
00:52:43
baseball that's not that's not happening
00:52:46
it's not optimal in any way. 25 baseball
00:52:50
is not optimal. So the question is what
00:52:52
else do you bring in to what you're
00:52:54
trying to bring to the game? And then of
00:52:56
course the other question is how much
00:52:57
weight do you put on that? And that's
00:52:59
the question.
00:52:59
>> But but you called it a principal agent
00:53:02
problem which in a way it is because the
00:53:03
teams are going to optimize winning
00:53:05
period. And people who want to see more
00:53:06
entertainment that's not the team's
00:53:08
enterprise. The league is the one who
00:53:10
cares about entertainment. But the
00:53:11
problem with that and that Jane was
00:53:12
abundantly clear is that the league has
00:53:15
basically laid down on the job. And it
00:53:17
wasn't until they hired Theo Epstein
00:53:19
three years ago that they made any
00:53:20
substantive change at all, which was the
00:53:22
only moment in its in MLB's history that
00:53:25
they made that change. Listen, we are
00:53:26
data analysts. And one of the things
00:53:28
that that the NFL has done beautifully
00:53:30
is bring data to the world. And
00:53:33
basketball is now doing that. And
00:53:35
baseball is so behind in fan engagement
00:53:38
um in so many areas. And the and one of
00:53:39
the things you talked about was just
00:53:41
making the game more accessible to
00:53:43
people and but that involves leadership.
00:53:46
I mean without that it's not going to
00:53:48
happen.
00:53:49
>> Yeah. And I I just want to kind of like
00:53:50
I I did feel like the conversation with
00:53:52
her uh was a little I when we talk about
00:53:54
fan experience it was entirely at the
00:53:56
ballpark fan experience she was talking
00:53:59
about,
00:53:59
>> right?
00:54:00
>> You know like oh like the different
00:54:01
hoarder for like you know pregame and oh
00:54:03
the the beers are too expensive blah
00:54:05
blah blah blah type of thing.
00:54:08
But like I mean you know most of like I
00:54:10
mean that's I don't I don't think
00:54:12
basketball and NFL have grown because of
00:54:14
like at the like I mean I think even
00:54:17
smaller proportion people actually
00:54:18
>> it's not peach baskets. It's not peach
00:54:20
baskets. We're not going back to peach
00:54:21
baskets. That's not why basketball's
00:54:22
good. It's like come on.
00:54:23
>> Yeah. No it's it's sort of like it's got
00:54:26
to be something about the actual product
00:54:27
and viewing product from like a screen
00:54:30
because so you know like so much of the
00:54:32
growth of any sport these days is how we
00:54:34
consume it behind a screen. And so I
00:54:36
think it's kind of like I think the pace
00:54:39
of play changes were really productive
00:54:40
in that regard. I I wonder kind of what
00:54:42
other sort of like quote unquote fan
00:54:45
experience changes I mean you can tell
00:54:47
me because you read the book more
00:54:48
closely like she talked about that
00:54:50
weren't just about at the ballpark.
00:54:51
Well, she did talk about she started to
00:54:53
talk about that. She she worked with
00:54:54
this uh or she had some impact and she
00:54:57
wrote about um this uh an app that her
00:55:00
students uh that discuss this this
00:55:02
professor Pico she mentions Hanoi I
00:55:04
think her name is um who runs a
00:55:06
basically a sports tech lab at MIT um
00:55:09
and uh and does a lot of I she called it
00:55:11
sports analytics but but it's more
00:55:12
sports tech. They built an app which um
00:55:15
allows you to for kids to kind of
00:55:18
predict what's going to happen next. it
00:55:20
called it's called beat the bot but it
00:55:22
sounded like they were essentially
00:55:23
turning the kids into gamblers with not
00:55:26
for money but for prizes. Um it's right
00:55:28
on the spot
00:55:28
>> or just trainers for future algorithms
00:55:31
how we do these
00:55:32
>> days much more oriented in watching but
00:55:34
I will say that and this is why I don't
00:55:36
think she's wrong about the fan
00:55:38
experience. So much of my interest in
00:55:40
baseball was being brought as a child to
00:55:42
a game and engaging with the players on
00:55:45
the field before the game. not only in
00:55:46
batting practice, but I'll never forget
00:55:48
getting a signed autograph from a player
00:55:51
in the stands of my was brought there to
00:55:54
sign autographs for the players for sign
00:55:56
my scorecard and that player was was um
00:55:59
Bobby Bonds, father of Barry
00:56:03
>> just to give you a sense.
00:56:04
>> Yeah, I did want to sort of I I I don't
00:56:06
We got a little maybe it was just at the
00:56:08
end, but I do think having Aaron Judge
00:56:11
like crash into like a plexiglass
00:56:14
>> like uh like like in hockey that would
00:56:16
definitely change the fan experience.
00:56:18
We'd have a lot of shattered
00:56:19
>> she was talking about like what what
00:56:21
Fenway has with its green monster is a
00:56:23
really interesting fly balls to the
00:56:25
outfield.
00:56:25
>> Do you as baseball purists I I most
00:56:28
Yankee fans I know hate the Green
00:56:30
Monster specific not just because of the
00:56:32
history whatever but because it's like
00:56:34
too whackadoo. It's like, you know, like
00:56:36
it change like I mean it really changes
00:56:38
like the geography of a game in Boston.
00:56:40
But is that like like would we want to
00:56:42
kind of create like are we going to I I
00:56:45
would worry we kind of create like sort
00:56:46
of like too many kind of weird like
00:56:49
>> isn't that what the didn't Astros put a
00:56:50
flag in center field back in the day?
00:56:53
>> Like you know you
00:56:54
>> and Monument Park used to be on the
00:56:56
field
00:56:56
>> and was on the field had that weird
00:57:00
slope up. I don't know if they still
00:57:01
have that slope up in center. Well, they
00:57:03
have changed the dimensions to make it
00:57:04
easier to hit home runs and that is
00:57:07
definitely something that they've done
00:57:08
which is working against some some in
00:57:10
some level against um itself. We should
00:57:12
be um promoting the league should be
00:57:14
promoting singles and doubles and
00:57:16
triples rather than making home runs
00:57:18
even easier. Um listen guys, we can talk
00:57:20
about this forever. We didn't talk about
00:57:22
any other sports this week. Our our time
00:57:24
has come to an end unfortunately. Um and
00:57:27
we all have places to go. So, I want to
00:57:29
um conclude our show by thanking our our
00:57:31
our actually our guest sound engineer
00:57:34
Aaron Tran was in today. Dion is out. Um
00:57:37
and of course uh Marissa Rena, our
00:57:39
producer, our guest Jane Levy, and of
00:57:42
course our my colleagues here at Wharton
00:57:44
Moneyball. Have a great week everyone.
00:57:45
Enjoy your statistics, enjoy your
00:57:47
sports, and we'll see you at next week.
00:57:51
[Music]
