RETURN TO CHANNEL

Search Captions & Ask AI

Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics

December 18, 2025 / 59:12

This episode of Wharton Moneyball covers college football playoffs, featuring guest Bill Connley. Topics include playoff matchups, team analyses, and betting insights.

Host Kade Massie and co-hosts Eric Bradlo, Audi Winer, and Shane Jensen discuss the upcoming college football playoff games, emphasizing the significance of home-field advantage and playoff dynamics. They introduce guest Bill Connley, who shares his extensive preview of the first round of playoffs.

Bill Connley discusses the intricacies of the playoff selection process, highlighting flaws in the current system and the impact of home-field advantage on game outcomes. He also provides insights into specific matchups, including Alabama vs. Oklahoma and Oregon vs. James Madison.

The conversation shifts to the betting lines and potential surprises in the playoff games. Connley analyzes team strengths and weaknesses, particularly focusing on the performance of quarterbacks and defenses in critical matchups.

In the second half, the hosts open the lines for discussion, reflecting on the excitement of the playoffs and the unpredictability of college football, while also touching on NFL developments.

TL;DR

Bill Connley discusses college football playoffs, analyzing matchups, betting lines, and team dynamics with hosts Kade Massie and crew.

Episode

59:12

00:00:00

Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball.

00:00:02

Welcome to a full hour of sports

00:00:04

analytics here on the Wharton podcast

00:00:06

network. This is Kade Massie hosting

00:00:09

today with the whole crew. Eric Bradlo

00:00:11

is here. Audi Winer here is here. Shane

00:00:13

Jensen's here. All of us from our home

00:00:16

offices. That may be No, no, Audi's at

00:00:19

work. Audi's at work. He's at work. The

00:00:21

rest of us at home offices. We also have

00:00:24

a guest. We're introducing him in just a

00:00:26

minute. We are recording on Tuesday

00:00:27

afternoon as we typically do a little

00:00:29

earlier in the day. It'll go up on

00:00:31

Wednesday. We are going to run a regular

00:00:34

show today. Going to have a guest in the

00:00:36

first half hour and open lines in the

00:00:38

second half hour. This week, well, we

00:00:40

have the college football playoff on us.

00:00:42

Now, this is playoff week round one week

00:00:46

and we it's been a little while since

00:00:48

we've done this. We want to talk college

00:00:49

football. Who do we want to talk college

00:00:50

football with? Like everybody else, we

00:00:52

want to talk it with Bill Connley. Bill

00:00:54

Connley gracious enough to join us.

00:00:56

Bill, welcome in. Good to see you.

00:00:58

>> Yeah, absolutely.

00:01:01

>> Bill, and you've got to be busier than

00:01:03

usual this week. You said coming on

00:01:05

7,000word

00:01:06

round one preview. Is that right? That's

00:01:08

a lot of words, Bill.

00:01:09

>> I think it's going to come in at about

00:01:10

eight and then I'm going to try to cut

00:01:11

it to six, I think, is the goal here.

00:01:14

Um, all right. It can't all be 8,000

00:01:16

words. Like, sure, some people might

00:01:18

want to read that, but I got to get it

00:01:19

down a little bit. Hey, Bill. Is there

00:01:21

more than about 30 or 40 words to say

00:01:23

about two of the games?

00:01:25

>> Yes. Yes.

00:01:26

>> That's that's what Bill's that's his

00:01:28

mission in life is to make us care about

00:01:30

somebody other than Georgia and Ohio

00:01:32

State.

00:01:33

>> Actually, the the game that might be the

00:01:34

hardest is um nobody not even my OU fan

00:01:37

friends wanted to see an Alabama

00:01:39

Oklahoma rematch.

00:01:40

>> Um that was ugly ugly football and it

00:01:44

will be ugly football again. So, that

00:01:45

one was the hardest.

00:01:48

Do you think the committee gave any

00:01:49

consideration to matches? And do you

00:01:51

think they should?

00:01:53

>> Because they were locked in to this

00:01:56

absurd process where if there's a team

00:01:59

separating Notre Dame and Miami, Miami

00:02:01

will get in. And if there's not a team

00:02:03

separating Notre Dame, or sorry, if

00:02:04

there's a team separating Notre Dame and

00:02:06

Miami, Notre Dame will get in. And if

00:02:07

there's not a team separating Notre Dame

00:02:09

and Miami, Miami will get in. They

00:02:11

couldn't move Alabama because that would

00:02:12

impact who gets in between Notre Dame

00:02:14

and Miami. And this was the dumbest

00:02:16

process imaginable. It just exposed to

00:02:18

every single flaw in the current system.

00:02:20

So I don't think they could have moved

00:02:22

them because if they moved Alabama to

00:02:24

give them a different matchup, suddenly

00:02:25

Notre Dame's in instead of Miami because

00:02:26

that's what we want out of this.

00:02:29

>> Okay. So we we are not going to

00:02:30

relitigate the playoff.

00:02:32

>> I want to reitigate. I want to reitigate

00:02:33

it forever.

00:02:36

>> Well, you know, there they did tweak

00:02:39

things uh between year one and two of

00:02:42

the 12 team format. Perhaps they'll

00:02:44

tweak it again.

00:02:46

Maybe something about the process. I

00:02:47

don't think anybody's ever been as

00:02:49

unhappy about it as it's been a long

00:02:50

time. It's been almost a generation

00:02:52

before we've been since we've been this

00:02:54

unhappy. But let's not for the time

00:02:56

being, let's not. Let's go forward.

00:02:57

Let's go forward looking and talk about

00:02:59

actual football. And I've been away from

00:03:01

the show for a couple of weeks and we've

00:03:03

been away from college football the

00:03:04

whole world has except for, you know,

00:03:06

Army Navy and that riveting Washington

00:03:08

Boise State game this weekend. What do

00:03:10

we need to Let's get back into the frame

00:03:12

of mind, Bill. We've got some playoff

00:03:14

football. This is only the second year

00:03:16

that we've had, you know, four round one

00:03:18

games on We have playoff games on home

00:03:21

campuses. I mean, let let's get back

00:03:23

into that mindset. Tell us tell us what

00:03:26

you're excited about this weekend. Give

00:03:27

us like three big ideas or three things

00:03:29

you're excited about to get us back in

00:03:30

this frame of mind.

00:03:31

>> Well, I guess the most me answer I could

00:03:33

give would be Montana, Montana State for

00:03:35

a spot in the FCS finals. That's what

00:03:37

I'm most excited about. But We here are

00:03:40

interested of course in Villanova.

00:03:43

That's right. That's right.

00:03:44

>> Gale played Montana in the second round

00:03:47

of that.

00:03:47

>> Montana State. Get it right. Montana

00:03:49

State.

00:03:50

>> Montana State. Right. [laughter]

00:03:52

>> I I have many opinions about that, but

00:03:54

uh I I guess I'll focus on the what

00:03:56

we're actually supposed to talk about.

00:03:58

No, I you know, this is you're right.

00:04:00

This was you know, last year we got

00:04:01

three four bad games. Technically, not

00:04:03

not any of them were close, but they

00:04:05

were still pretty incredible in that

00:04:06

they unlocked this new substance for

00:04:08

college football called playoff home

00:04:10

field advantage. Like watching SMU's

00:04:13

quarterback have to cover his ears

00:04:15

because things were so loud, they call a

00:04:17

timeout, they come back from the timeout

00:04:18

and it's louder and he immediately

00:04:20

throws a pick six. That was just that

00:04:22

that was kind of amazing. You know,

00:04:23

college football's always kind of known

00:04:25

for the the atmospheres and whatnot, and

00:04:27

we unlocked a whole new thing. Uh, and

00:04:29

now we got four new home stadiums to

00:04:32

kind of show off here with with Owen

00:04:34

Field with uh, you know, uh, Cal College

00:04:37

Station, Oxford, Norman, and Eugene. Um,

00:04:40

that's going to be that's going to be

00:04:42

cool in and of itself. It's it is a

00:04:44

spectacle in that regard. So hopefully,

00:04:46

you know, if we get one amazing game,

00:04:48

that'll be one more than last year. will

00:04:50

just be continuing to trend upward and

00:04:52

and we'll see if we get that one.

00:04:54

>> Can I get a quick answer and uh tell me

00:04:56

what is the point spread differential

00:04:59

for a home game currently estimated in

00:05:01

college?

00:05:02

>> So, I've always the thing that's always

00:05:04

worked best to me is about two and a

00:05:05

half points. I've fiddled with less than

00:05:07

that at times. I think there have been a

00:05:09

couple years where maybe it should have

00:05:10

been less and of course, you know, 20

00:05:11

and 21 got all weird, but I still use

00:05:14

two and a half.

00:05:17

>> It's a very new dynamic for playoff

00:05:18

games. Well, I mean, playoff games

00:05:20

obviously are a new dynamic themselves,

00:05:21

but having the home field, is there a

00:05:23

much of a movement towards I know cuz

00:05:25

the next

00:05:26

>> is this the only round that's actually

00:05:29

in home stadium then they start moving

00:05:31

into the Bulls and everything like that.

00:05:33

Is there

00:05:34

>> much energy towards additional home, you

00:05:37

know, put it like it would be

00:05:38

>> there's extreme energy for it. There's a

00:05:40

lot of energy for it. Everybody wants

00:05:42

quarterfinal home games as well. The

00:05:44

problem is the bowls had to be kind of,

00:05:46

you know, placated to get the system we

00:05:49

got. And therefore, you know, I'm

00:05:51

personally I wrote about this last year

00:05:52

and I I still think I'm right. Um, you

00:05:55

know, they basically they wanted those

00:05:56

quarterfinals in major bowl slots

00:05:58

because that would, you know, make the

00:05:59

major bowls still feel like major bowls

00:06:01

and whatnot. I don't think that's true.

00:06:03

Like if you basically put the

00:06:04

quarterfinals in home sites, uh, but

00:06:07

then took like just basically the top

00:06:09

eight teams that didn't make the field,

00:06:11

stick them in those four major bowls,

00:06:13

among other things, we would have gotten

00:06:14

a USC Texas Rose Bowl this year on the

00:06:16

20th anniversary of the US USC Texas

00:06:19

Rose Bowl that we all still talk about.

00:06:21

That would have been a lot better than

00:06:22

Indiana versus Oklahoma or something

00:06:24

where it's just basically using Pasadena

00:06:27

as a neutral site quarterfinal. Oh,

00:06:29

>> and in fact, you could argue it's

00:06:31

probably more competitive because the

00:06:32

distance between say like 13, 14, 15th

00:06:35

best team in the nation,

00:06:38

you know, and the 20th is much smaller

00:06:40

than what we're doing with like, you

00:06:41

know, one and

00:06:43

>> right. Well, Bill, give us a give us a

00:06:46

couple words on age and let's work up

00:06:47

let's work up kind of from the bottom

00:06:49

maybe. So, g give us something on J

00:06:51

Madison, James Madison versus Oregon.

00:06:52

Like, what could we learn? Oregon

00:06:54

presumably is an actual national title

00:06:56

contender, but can we learn anything

00:06:58

about them from their game against James

00:06:59

Madison?

00:07:00

>> Well, JMU's defense really is pretty

00:07:03

solid. You know, it's not going to be

00:07:04

Big 10 solid. I'm sure they're a little

00:07:06

lighter here and there. Um, but they

00:07:08

held Louisville like beginning of the

00:07:09

year, Louisville was kind of banged up

00:07:11

all year, but they were about as healthy

00:07:12

as they'd been all season. They held

00:07:13

Louisville to like 285 yards. Um,

00:07:16

they're first in my success rate

00:07:18

measure. Success rate allowed. JMU is uh

00:07:20

I think I think Oregon's going to this

00:07:23

is going to be kind of your typical mid-

00:07:24

major upset approach I think from JMU

00:07:26

where you know give them whatever they

00:07:28

want between the 30s, let them run the

00:07:29

ball, whatever, and then try to stop

00:07:30

them on third downs and and limit the

00:07:32

pass and things like that. Oregon hasn't

00:07:34

always passed very well this year. The

00:07:36

receiving core has been all over the

00:07:37

place in terms of injuries. Um and I

00:07:40

think Jam have a chance at least to do

00:07:43

the third downs, red zone, no big plays

00:07:46

kind of approach and I think they have

00:07:47

enough talent to do that. Um, where I'm

00:07:50

more concerned, I think is JMU's

00:07:51

offense. Like when they the better

00:07:53

defenses they played, it was pretty much

00:07:55

big plays or nothing for them. They they

00:07:57

beat, you know, Washington State had the

00:07:59

weirdest year ever. Almost beat two

00:08:00

playoff teams in Old Miss and James

00:08:02

Madison. And JMU got like a 70 yard run

00:08:05

late that that basically took that game

00:08:07

for them. Had they were struggling

00:08:09

against Troy and Snow and all this stuff

00:08:11

and Wayne Knight rips off another big

00:08:12

run and kind of opens things up for

00:08:14

them. I don't think they're going to

00:08:15

pull that off. you're you're going to

00:08:16

have to get to at least 20 points

00:08:17

against Oregon. I'm not sure they can,

00:08:20

but I think it can absolutely be a

00:08:21

competitive game. Problem is, two years

00:08:24

ago, we watched Oregon play Liberty in a

00:08:27

in a major bowl game, that G5 thing

00:08:29

again, and they acted like they were

00:08:30

offended they even had to share the

00:08:32

field with Liberty and just absolutely

00:08:34

erased them from the opening snap. So, I

00:08:36

need to if it's tied after if it's still

00:08:38

scoreless after like 10 minutes, then

00:08:40

I'm confident, Jim, you can put together

00:08:42

a really good game. But I do still have

00:08:44

that memory in the back of my head that

00:08:45

they're just going to come out and be up

00:08:46

21 nothing immediately.

00:08:47

>> So Bill, what do you see maybe to uh

00:08:50

Cad's point, what do you see that the

00:08:52

betting market's not seeing? You think

00:08:53

you it could be it could be a

00:08:55

competitive game, but the line's 21.

00:08:57

>> Yeah, I mean SP plus NFBI have it around

00:09:00

15, I think. Um, and that's just because

00:09:03

JMU with the schedule they have faced,

00:09:06

which of course only included one power

00:09:08

conference team. Um, in against

00:09:10

Louisville, team that also beat Miami,

00:09:12

and it was tied midway through the

00:09:13

fourth quarter till a fumble basically.

00:09:16

Um, you know, they are JMU graded out

00:09:18

great on paper. Their defense has been

00:09:20

awesome all year. Their offense has been

00:09:21

awesome the back half of the season. Um,

00:09:24

and they're a good team. Like that's

00:09:27

again, I think Oregon has a gear that

00:09:28

only four or five teams have. I would

00:09:30

say there are five teams I think that

00:09:32

could compete for the title and they're

00:09:33

they're the only one that doesn't get a

00:09:34

buy. Um and so yeah, I would expect

00:09:38

Oregon to look great and and win, but

00:09:40

for the season as a whole, they've only

00:09:42

apparently been about 15 points better

00:09:44

than JMU.

00:09:45

>> All right, that's the last game of the

00:09:47

weekend. That's Saturday night. The game

00:09:48

before that is the other G5 game. That's

00:09:50

Tain going to miss. It's a Southern

00:09:53

Southern game. It's also a coaching

00:09:56

change coaching change situation. What

00:09:58

which is very odd for two playoff teams.

00:10:00

So give us something that we should keep

00:10:02

an eye on or why we should be interested

00:10:04

in two lane miss.

00:10:05

>> Um the the major thing and I'm I'm going

00:10:07

to lean on this in the in the preview

00:10:10

just so I can try to make it sound as

00:10:11

interesting as possible. We saw this

00:10:12

game in September as well and and uh

00:10:15

Miss won by 35 which is never great uh

00:10:18

heading in. But also, we've had six

00:10:20

rematches this season, five conference

00:10:22

title games, and the whole Oregon State,

00:10:24

Washington State playing twice thing.

00:10:26

And in five of the six, the team that

00:10:28

lost the first game won the second, and

00:10:29

they were huge, like 27 point swing in

00:10:31

one game, 24-point swing in another. Uh,

00:10:34

Tain played its worst game imaginable

00:10:36

early in the season. Jake Rzleaf, their

00:10:38

quarterback. He showed up on campus in

00:10:40

August. He was booted from BYU over the

00:10:42

summer. Uh, we're kind of mutually

00:10:45

whatever that situation ended up being.

00:10:47

Weird stuff. look it up. Um, but he

00:10:49

shows up in August. He, um, you know,

00:10:53

first two games of the year, they were

00:10:54

able to run well enough that he didn't

00:10:55

even really have to have chemistry with

00:10:57

his receivers. Then suddenly he had to

00:10:58

have chemistry because they couldn't run

00:10:59

all that well. Had no chemistry with his

00:11:01

receivers. Had the worst game of his

00:11:03

life. The uh, Old Miss, meanwhile, had

00:11:05

just uh, transitioned to Trinidad

00:11:07

Chambles at quarterback. Uh, the F State

00:11:10

go D2 the Fair State transfer. Um, and

00:11:13

he had only started one game at that

00:11:14

point. So, Twain thought, "Hey, new guy.

00:11:16

Let's attack as much as possible. let's

00:11:17

blitz and make him uncomfortable. And he

00:11:19

crushed them. Just absolutely

00:11:21

obliterated them because you can't do

00:11:23

that to him as other teams have found

00:11:24

out. So I think basically we're going to

00:11:27

get a much better performance from Tain

00:11:29

here. Both because Rleaf knows his

00:11:31

receivers names and because they

00:11:33

understand what Chamblas can and can't

00:11:35

do. That's probably not enough to make

00:11:36

up 35 points and miss is the better

00:11:38

team. But again, I do think we're going

00:11:40

to get a we could get a much more

00:11:42

entertaining game out of it. aside from

00:11:44

all the unknowns of yeah Lane Keifin's

00:11:47

already gone, John Summer's leaving all

00:11:49

that stuff is going to you know that

00:11:50

that's a a weird thing to itself I

00:11:52

guess.

00:11:52

>> So Bill, how much does the change in

00:11:54

coaching that K just brought up affect

00:11:57

like the way you're thinking? Like how

00:11:59

much does does it move the spread in

00:12:01

your mind or the win probability?

00:12:04

>> So it's different in that John Suml is

00:12:06

still at two lane. Um, but you can't

00:12:08

when when Lane Keifin leaves for one of

00:12:10

Miss's rivals, you can't let him stay at

00:12:13

Old Miss and continue to

00:12:16

make everybody feel like he's recruiting

00:12:17

all Miss's best players to LSU. So, if

00:12:21

it impacts anybody, you would think it

00:12:22

would impact Miss negatively, but it is

00:12:26

such a a nebulous thing. I mean, they

00:12:28

played so well down the stretch despite

00:12:30

all the the rumors and the winds blowing

00:12:32

about Kein leaving and all that. So they

00:12:35

are clearly their own team and they

00:12:36

still have you Golden the defensive

00:12:38

coordinator has now taken over. So

00:12:39

really it's only one person who's really

00:12:41

changed. Um so I don't I don't really

00:12:44

anticipate any specific change. If

00:12:46

there's a change I figure it's negative

00:12:47

for Old Miss but I'm doubting.

00:12:49

>> Well that I'm you could tell a story

00:12:51

that they're now galvanized and they're

00:12:52

pissed at Ke

00:12:55

they like they feel like abandoned and

00:12:56

we're going to show him and it would be

00:12:58

one hell of a story if they made a run

00:12:59

in the playoffs after he left.

00:13:01

>> We can pick that up.

00:13:02

>> They're they're a strong team. there. I

00:13:05

you know, we're gonna once we do the

00:13:06

first round games before we leave, we'll

00:13:08

get a little bit of a thought from you

00:13:09

on the rest of the bracket. But you

00:13:10

already gave away that you think there

00:13:12

are five real contenders. That means

00:13:13

Miss is not one of them. Um which is

00:13:15

which is reasonable, but let's come back

00:13:17

to it. Okay. The Friday night game is

00:13:19

the 89 game. That's Alabama going to

00:13:22

Oklahoma for a rematch. I believe the

00:13:23

first game was at Alabama that Oklahoma

00:13:25

managed to win somehow. Um so you said

00:13:30

this was going to be ugly. Um, neither

00:13:33

one of these teams is gonna make a long

00:13:35

run in the playoffs, right? They're

00:13:36

going to run up against Indiana the next

00:13:38

time, but what what's interesting to you

00:13:40

about Alabama?

00:13:42

>> Well, I think I mean, you know, there

00:13:43

were two games. I looked it up. I have

00:13:45

my postgame win expectancy number. Um,

00:13:47

which basically which I always tweet out

00:13:49

and and it's reasonably popular on on

00:13:52

social where I look at like here are all

00:13:54

the stats from this given game. Toss

00:13:55

them up in the air and it says that team

00:13:56

A would have won this game x% of the

00:13:58

time based on success rates and blah

00:14:00

blah blah. U this was the fifth least

00:14:03

likely result of the season according to

00:14:05

postgame win expectancy Alabama almost

00:14:07

doubled Oklahoma's yardage almost

00:14:09

doubled their success rate um basically

00:14:12

from the stats the game produced oh you

00:14:14

had a 5% chance of winning but they

00:14:15

returned a pick 87 yards for a touchdown

00:14:18

they blocked a field goal at the end of

00:14:19

the first half they recovered three I

00:14:21

think it was three turnovers for Alabama

00:14:23

one was a muff punt uh OU scored points

00:14:26

on three drives that didn't gain more

00:14:27

than like 30 yards uh it was just the

00:14:30

basically the strategy that the uh Super

00:14:33

Bowl champion Eagles are using this

00:14:34

season as well to win games. I think

00:14:36

>> like an extreme version of that. Yes.

00:14:38

>> Outcome not at all agreeing with the

00:14:40

peripherals.

00:14:41

>> No, it was um it was a really super ugly

00:14:43

game. And from that standpoint alone,

00:14:44

you figure I mean all all Alabama has to

00:14:46

do is play like they did last time and

00:14:48

not muff a punch or not get a field goal

00:14:50

blocked or lose two other turnovers and

00:14:52

they're fine. Um but they haven't looked

00:14:55

like a playoff team since October. Um

00:14:59

they they they handled Tennessee really

00:15:01

well. They finished that four grand

00:15:03

stretch where they won four straight

00:15:04

ranked games. They they had the best

00:15:06

resume in the country and then they were

00:15:08

out of gas. They they didn't look great

00:15:11

against South tried to blow it against

00:15:12

South Carolina. Didn't look great

00:15:14

against LSU. Looked downright bad

00:15:17

against Auburn and still rose in the

00:15:19

playoff rankings after that game and

00:15:22

then got crushed by Georgia and somehow

00:15:23

didn't fall in the playoff rankings. So

00:15:25

they're very lucky to be here and you

00:15:28

know now that they're here and they've

00:15:30

heard they spent the last two weeks

00:15:32

being told they're lucky to be here. So

00:15:33

that you know you never know the whole

00:15:34

galvanizing thing but Ty Simpson's like

00:15:37

timing is gone. He's been battling

00:15:39

without a run game all year and suddenly

00:15:42

he just looked horrific against George.

00:15:43

Didn't look very good against Auburn

00:15:45

either. So if that doesn't change it

00:15:47

doesn't matter. U will still win. But,

00:15:49

uh, they can at least take heart in the

00:15:51

fact that they were on paper they were

00:15:53

demonstraably superior the first time

00:15:54

around.

00:15:56

>> I feel like the rhetoric around

00:15:57

Oklahoma's defense just got stronger and

00:15:58

stronger over the course of the year.

00:16:00

Maybe because their defense did venibles

00:16:01

of course has that reputation. Matier

00:16:04

the wild card at the end of the season

00:16:05

that he seemed at the beginning of the

00:16:06

season. I would say overall you sound a

00:16:09

little bit optimistic about Oklahoma.

00:16:11

>> Yeah. I mean basically because of

00:16:12

Alabama well and and the fact that oh

00:16:15

you you know to the extent that identity

00:16:17

really matters in these things. They

00:16:18

know exactly what they have to do to win

00:16:20

a football game. Um Alabama's kind of

00:16:22

lost in the winds right now. They don't

00:16:23

know how they're going to move the ball

00:16:24

or anything like that. But you know

00:16:27

we're going to play defense. We're going

00:16:28

to force turnovers. We're gonna pounce

00:16:30

on every single Our offense may stink,

00:16:31

but we're great in the red zone. So, any

00:16:33

chance we get, we're getting seven

00:16:34

points out of it. Uh, and we're gonna

00:16:36

hope to hit one big pass play at some

00:16:39

point in the game. Missouri completely

00:16:40

controlled the first half against

00:16:41

Oklahoma, but could only get up like

00:16:43

three nothing cuz OU's defense was

00:16:45

really good and they missed a field goal

00:16:47

and then suddenly won I think it was

00:16:48

like an 87 yard pass to Isaiah Satenia

00:16:51

and poof, they were ahead and they went

00:16:53

on to win like 176.

00:16:55

one big pass play to Satania against LSU

00:16:58

as well and and that was it. So

00:17:00

>> that's their formula and they know it

00:17:02

really well and and to the extent that

00:17:04

that matters like I'd rather just have a

00:17:06

great overall team that probably would

00:17:08

matter more but they are very confident

00:17:10

in their formula and that could end up

00:17:11

mattering here.

00:17:12

>> Okay. Well, so can can Simpson get his

00:17:15

mojo back? That's an interesting

00:17:16

question especially against Venable's

00:17:18

defense. Can Satena can they continue to

00:17:21

hit hit this Satena button? you know

00:17:23

that and can they get any defensive

00:17:25

turnovers? Okay, fine. Okay, the surely

00:17:28

the most interesting game of week one is

00:17:30

Miami at&m. It's the first game on

00:17:33

Saturday. Um you know Kyle Field is a

00:17:36

one of the great places to see football

00:17:38

in America and this is going to be a

00:17:40

playoff game there. Are you kidding me?

00:17:42

They should have put this the night

00:17:43

game. I can't believe they didn't. But

00:17:44

11 o'clock still central time. Miami I

00:17:47

mean you you've you've you've said

00:17:49

there's only five contenders of the

00:17:50

others. I mean, Miss must have some kind

00:17:53

of remote chance. And Miami, surely I'm

00:17:55

a little short on&m because of Marcel

00:17:57

Reed, but Miami maybe, maybe. What do

00:17:59

you think about this game?

00:18:02

>> I This is And I'm This is what I've set

00:18:04

it up in the preview. If you tell me

00:18:05

either one of these teams won by 28

00:18:07

points, I'll believe you immediately. Um

00:18:10

they are both extremely just

00:18:14

up and down and and kind of frantic

00:18:17

teams at time especially&m &m you can

00:18:19

basically guarantee that Marcel Reed's

00:18:20

going to look terrible for one quarter

00:18:22

and great for one and then the other two

00:18:23

quarters are going to basically decide

00:18:25

the game

00:18:27

>> and and so that can go in any number of

00:18:29

directions. Miami is just man they just

00:18:32

don't so number one their defense is

00:18:34

very good um secondary completely

00:18:37

recrafted in in the transfer portal kind

00:18:40

of underrated almost uh because we talk

00:18:42

a lot about Ruben Bane up front and Ake

00:18:44

Mezador up front secondary's been

00:18:46

awesome the whole defense is good not

00:18:49

necessarily I mean&m's played other good

00:18:51

defenses so they're not going to be

00:18:52

surprised by that or the athleticism or

00:18:54

anything but really good unit Miami's

00:18:56

offense however is just you know six

00:18:59

yards at a and um very efficient. Fewest

00:19:02

big plays by far of anybody in this

00:19:04

field. Um they really are just kind of

00:19:07

measured and didn't conduct down the

00:19:09

field, which is fine except that means

00:19:10

you need like 11 plays to score a

00:19:12

touchdown. And there have been a couple

00:19:14

games where Carson Beck can't go 11

00:19:16

plays without throwing an interception.

00:19:18

So um they looked spectacular at the

00:19:21

beginning of the year. They they really

00:19:22

did look strong late. Once I once they

00:19:24

started climbing somehow catching up to

00:19:26

Notre Dame in the playoff rankings, they

00:19:28

started playing well again. Uh in

00:19:30

between they were extremely mediocre and

00:19:33

um more mediocre than I think&m's been

00:19:35

at any stretch this season. So that's

00:19:37

really Yeah, I I I this is a it's really

00:19:41

hard to get a read on this game because

00:19:43

you could really talk yourself into a

00:19:44

huge advantage either way. If it's

00:19:46

close&M

00:19:48

uh because a they're they they they're

00:19:51

experienced in that this year. They're

00:19:52

the four and01 score games and Miami

00:19:54

just can't escape the Mario Crystal Ball

00:19:57

allegations when it comes to being too

00:19:59

tight, too conservative, uh just too

00:20:02

cautious down the stretch. It c it cost

00:20:04

them twice and almost cost them two more

00:20:05

times.

00:20:06

>> Okay. Is it fair to characterize&m's a

00:20:09

some defenses and&m seems to be one of

00:20:11

these defenses this year is it's really

00:20:13

kind of an explosive play defense. It's

00:20:15

a it's a high havoc defense. They get a

00:20:17

lot not for losses, but they get these

00:20:19

big blowing planes against them. Um,

00:20:22

okay. So, I saw that against South

00:20:23

Carolina big time. Saw it against Texas

00:20:24

big time. It seems to be the philosophy.

00:20:27

Um, how does that match up with how you

00:20:29

characterize Miami's six yards in a

00:20:31

cloud of dust kind?

00:20:32

>> Yeah, that's that that's one of the

00:20:33

reasons why like if you tell me Miami

00:20:35

just, you know, number one was remained

00:20:37

efficient but also made big plays

00:20:38

because&m always gives up big plays,

00:20:40

then they're set. They're going to

00:20:42

they're going to roll. But if they can't

00:20:44

be efficient because&M renders you

00:20:46

inefficient, they they force the longest

00:20:48

third downs in the country. They have

00:20:49

the best third down conversion rate

00:20:51

allowed in the country. They have the

00:20:52

best pass rush numbers in the country.

00:20:54

Um if Miami isn't able if if they're in

00:20:57

second and eight or third and seven a

00:20:59

lot that favors&m dramatically. So it is

00:21:02

one of those kind of strength versus

00:21:04

weakness weakness versus strength kind

00:21:06

of situations that you can you can

00:21:08

really talk yourself into seeing

00:21:09

anything.

00:21:11

>> Eric's going to jump in.

00:21:11

>> You Bill, I was just going to ask you

00:21:12

the length of time between when they

00:21:15

last played. Have you have you or others

00:21:18

have they ever looked at does it tend to

00:21:19

favor the stronger team, the weaker

00:21:21

team, the offense, the defense? Has

00:21:23

there been any studies of this and like

00:21:26

what should we expect? Because I'm like,

00:21:28

you know, the standard I have six days

00:21:29

to prepare for this other team. I've had

00:21:32

four weeks to prepare for this other

00:21:34

team.

00:21:34

>> This specific gap is kind of a new one.

00:21:38

Um, and that basically everybody's had

00:21:40

two weeks off now, maybe three. Um, and

00:21:42

last year, so basically last year was

00:21:44

the first time we saw everybody with

00:21:45

this this exact gap of time. And it

00:21:47

turned out the favorites rolled in all

00:21:49

the games. So maybe that's maybe that's

00:21:51

the answer, but it is like we're used to

00:21:52

bowl breaks where everybody's off for

00:21:54

like six weeks. This one's right in

00:21:56

between. It's it's like two by weeks

00:21:58

instead of an actual huge gap. And so I

00:22:00

don't know. I think we need we need more

00:22:02

data on this one. But last year it sure

00:22:04

seemed to well last year I guess it

00:22:06

favored all the favorites in the first

00:22:08

round and then it favored all the teams

00:22:09

that had just played in the first round

00:22:11

in the quarterfinals because all those

00:22:13

other teams have been off a month in the

00:22:14

quarterfinals and all the teams that had

00:22:17

buys struggled.

00:22:18

>> Well, there's even one more wrinkle.

00:22:20

Some of these teams played in conference

00:22:21

championships. Um in fact, well, and

00:22:24

some didn't. No, all of them. All of

00:22:25

them did. The second round hosts all

00:22:28

played in conference championships. So,

00:22:29

it dampens that that time off. But it's

00:22:31

an open question, Eric. And people have

00:22:33

been people argue about like, is it an

00:22:35

advantage to have the buyer or not?

00:22:36

Because it buys you this extra time, but

00:22:38

it also might slow things down. Audi's

00:22:39

been trying to get in as well.

00:22:44

>> Odd.

00:22:45

>> Nope.

00:22:46

>> Your hand is up, buddy. Your hand is up.

00:22:47

I'm trying to

00:22:48

>> Oh, that was from before and forgot to

00:22:50

take it down.

00:22:51

>> All right. My bad. All right, Bill.

00:22:53

Before we go, you've given us a

00:22:55

fantastic preview of the first round,

00:22:57

but we don't want to neglect the guys

00:22:59

that are waiting on the other side of

00:23:00

the first round. We've got Texas Tech in

00:23:02

the fourth seed taking the JMU Oregon

00:23:05

winner. We have we have um Georgia in

00:23:08

the third seed waiting for yet another

00:23:10

Southern team, Tain or Old Miss. We have

00:23:13

Ohio State in the second seed waiting

00:23:14

for that winner, that game we we're just

00:23:16

kind of getting excited about in College

00:23:17

Station, the the&m Miami game. And then

00:23:21

Indiana, number one seed, Indiana. My

00:23:23

god, we could have done the whole

00:23:24

episode on them waiting for yet another

00:23:26

red team, Alabama or Oklahoma. What are

00:23:29

your thoughts on the second round and

00:23:30

and what are your thoughts about those

00:23:31

four teams? Um,

00:23:34

how uniform are your are your

00:23:36

probabilities over championships across

00:23:37

those four teams?

00:23:39

>> Uh, so the the probabilities on the SP

00:23:41

plus side right now is basically let's

00:23:43

see 29% Ohio State, 24% Indiana, 21%

00:23:47

Texas Tech. My numbers love Texas Tech

00:23:49

and they love Texas Tech despite the

00:23:51

fact that

00:23:52

>> I mean they're they're that they're much

00:23:53

higher on Texas Tech than others and

00:23:54

every single week Tech overachieves

00:23:56

against projections by like two

00:23:57

touchdowns. So it can't it can't ra

00:24:00

raise that number high enough for to

00:24:02

catch Tech. So I think they're pretty

00:24:04

fantastic. They're going to obviously

00:24:05

have by far the hardest challenge in the

00:24:07

in the quarterfinals if all the

00:24:09

favorites win here and they have to play

00:24:10

Oregon because I do think I think Tech

00:24:12

is third in SP plus but Oregon

00:24:18

is longer, all those kinds of the things

00:24:19

that those matter. Uh so I think that's

00:24:21

a really really tough game for them. But

00:24:23

but from a numbers standpoint, those

00:24:24

three stand out and then you've got

00:24:26

Georgia at 10%. Georgia really

00:24:28

>> surpris

00:24:30

I test from afar I wouldn't have put

00:24:32

them at like a third of Ohio State and

00:24:35

half of Georgia at Texas Tech, you Well,

00:24:37

it depends on if you watched early in

00:24:38

the season when they looked like they

00:24:40

were just going playing games unprepared

00:24:42

um and just like, "Oh, we'll figure it

00:24:43

out." And then not looking good until

00:24:45

the fourth quarter and figuring it out

00:24:46

and winning. Um

00:24:47

>> but how relevant is early in the season

00:24:50

at this point?

00:24:51

>> Yeah. No, that's I mean Georgia has

00:24:53

figured out the the formula here. They

00:24:56

basically their second national title

00:24:57

year with the four-game playoff, they

00:24:58

basically did the same thing. They

00:24:59

looked very just mediocre for stretches

00:25:02

at a time, but they always brawled their

00:25:03

way to a win and then looked great at

00:25:05

the end. So,

00:25:06

>> and Ohio State last year.

00:25:07

>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean it's I, you know,

00:25:09

I would have them I have them at 10%. I

00:25:11

would have them closer to the pack than

00:25:13

that, but from a number standpoint, I

00:25:14

get it because SP saw the first half of

00:25:17

the season and doesn't trust them all

00:25:18

that much. Also, their offense is like

00:25:20

Miami in that they don't make big plays

00:25:22

at all. Um, as the defense really

00:25:24

rounded into form late in the year, you

00:25:26

could really start to question that the

00:25:28

Georgia offense against Georgia Tech.

00:25:30

Uh, terrible Georgia Tech defense. They

00:25:32

really didn't do a single thing against

00:25:33

them. Um, Alabama has a good defense,

00:25:35

but they didn't do much against Alabama

00:25:37

either. It was just Bama's offense

00:25:39

wasn't doing anything. So, I don't

00:25:41

completely trust Georgia, but you just

00:25:43

have to to some degree say that Kirby

00:25:45

Smart knows how to win these games and

00:25:47

they're just going to brawl their way

00:25:48

in.

00:25:48

>> Bill receeding happen in college

00:25:50

football.

00:25:51

>> I I like I like when brackets take on

00:25:54

their own personality like in the like

00:25:56

in March Madness where some years you

00:25:57

have a bunch of chalk and other years

00:25:59

the bracket w opens wide open for the

00:26:01

eight seat or something like that. like

00:26:02

I that's that's what I enjoy. And um so

00:26:05

I I don't think so. I think um you know

00:26:08

if we have a situation where

00:26:10

you know whatever we're talking about

00:26:12

here, Alabama suddenly becomes Alabama

00:26:13

again and rolls through Oklahoma and

00:26:15

Indiana um you know their reward should

00:26:17

be an easier semi-final game, not

00:26:19

necessarily having to play like Ohio

00:26:20

State or something in the semis.

00:26:22

>> Guys, I'm curious your response to the

00:26:25

probabilities that Bill gave. He gave S

00:26:27

sp SP plus probabilities and he said 29,

00:26:30

24, 21 and 10 among the top four seeds

00:26:33

and then we kind of fudged the 10 back

00:26:35

up because we think George has probably

00:26:36

got some non-stationity that's working

00:26:38

in his favor now. So make him 15 maybe

00:26:41

take some of that from everybody. But

00:26:43

spreading from 27 to 15 the top four

00:26:45

seeds that feels relatively flat to me.

00:26:48

You're talking about just right at two

00:26:49

to one between

00:26:50

>> and nobody has a one in three chance. So

00:26:52

>> yeah.

00:26:53

>> Um which is exciting. I mean, you're

00:26:55

saying Texas Tech, a G a G5 team, has a

00:26:59

>> Not exactly. Not exactly.

00:27:01

>> They're just not an SEC or Big 10 team.

00:27:05

>> Oh, I'm sorry. Not Yeah, of course. Of

00:27:07

course. Oh, look what I've done. Look

00:27:08

what I've done to the fans.

00:27:11

>> My goodness gracious. I should Oh, hope

00:27:13

my family doesn't listen to that.

00:27:16

>> Entitlement superiority comes in quick

00:27:18

as it turns. [laughter]

00:27:19

You got a nice natural experiment here.

00:27:22

There's lots of ways to summarize the

00:27:24

quote unquote flatness. The first thing

00:27:26

that struck me is that the highest team

00:27:29

is quote unquote only 29%. That's one

00:27:32

way to look at it. Another is the

00:27:35

difference between the first and the

00:27:36

fourth, right? That's another way to

00:27:38

look at it kind of being pretty flat.

00:27:40

Um, another way is also just looking at

00:27:43

the total probability of the top four

00:27:47

versus everyone else. So, Bill, with

00:27:48

just roughly, I would have to give you

00:27:50

somewhere in the 8 to N to1 odds to take

00:27:52

anybody outside the top four.

00:27:56

>> 74. Yeah, it's about 84 85% for the top

00:27:59

four. And last year when they gave buys

00:28:01

to the conference champions and we had

00:28:02

kind of a weird bracket

00:28:04

>> where Ohio State was the best team in

00:28:06

the country and the eight seed. That was

00:28:08

certainly a different situation, which I

00:28:09

didn't I didn't mind. I don't mind

00:28:11

weird. I think that should be very

00:28:12

obvious. Uh, but it's definitely true

00:28:14

this year where the top four teams are

00:28:15

probably unless you want to make a case

00:28:17

for Oregon and I think you could. They

00:28:19

were the top they were the four best

00:28:21

teams as well and therefore it kind of

00:28:23

played out like it should and Oregon if

00:28:24

they do handle JMU they're at 7% right

00:28:27

now. Nobody else is above well miss is

00:28:29

at four and a half% everybody else is at

00:28:31

two or lower. Um,

00:28:33

>> but that's but as soon as you get one

00:28:34

and six one and six and you get Oregon

00:28:37

and then the chance that Matier actually

00:28:39

plays well Simpson gets his mojo back.

00:28:42

Miss is galvanized in the absence of

00:28:44

Lane Keifin or Miami, you know, Beck

00:28:47

lifts the offense somehow ultimately

00:28:49

like you get one in six chance you get

00:28:51

all those possibilities. Does that

00:28:52

appeal to anybody? Aie, you always like

00:28:54

the field. You want the field on this

00:28:55

one?

00:28:56

>> And just to clarify, they don't

00:28:58

>> outside the top four. I don't think I

00:29:00

do.

00:29:02

>> Not Not if Bill's numbers are accurate.

00:29:03

Not even close.

00:29:04

>> I'm told they're not. If that helps you

00:29:06

at all. I'm told a lot on your numbers

00:29:08

are accurate. It makes this point moot.

00:29:10

But they don't do receding. No.

00:29:12

>> Right in this.

00:29:13

>> No, that's what I said. Yeah. No

00:29:14

receding.

00:29:16

>> I think one and six is not I think one

00:29:18

and six would be fun. It be It'd be fun

00:29:20

card to have, but you're running against

00:29:22

four very good teams sitting there at

00:29:23

the top of the bracket.

00:29:24

>> What's interesting, Bill?

00:29:25

>> No, wait, hold on a minute. Al, are you

00:29:26

asking me whether I would take the field

00:29:28

at one and one and six?

00:29:29

>> Yeah, that's what of course I am.

00:29:30

>> That's a I I mean, yeah, for sure.

00:29:34

>> But why? That's fair odds. It's fair

00:29:37

odds. Why are you so excited now?

00:29:40

>> No. No. Oh, I thought you meant the

00:29:41

50/50 mark, right? Usually

00:29:42

>> No, no, no, no. Even at 8515, that's

00:29:45

fair odds, Audi, according to FBI.

00:29:48

>> Right. Right. Right. So, I would

00:29:49

probably take the field at that. Give if

00:29:51

I if you gave me those odds.

00:29:52

>> Okay. All right. Um All right, Bill, we

00:29:55

should let you go. Um, what is the

00:29:57

single thing you're most excited about

00:29:58

seeing this weekend other than just

00:30:00

football again? And you can say Montana

00:30:02

State. That's fine.

00:30:02

>> Well, yeah. I mean, I am Brawl of the

00:30:04

Wild and and the F the Fair State

00:30:07

Harding D2 title game are both going to

00:30:09

be really fun split screen viewing. I

00:30:10

got the YouTube multi- view going on and

00:30:14

uh that's going to be really fun to have

00:30:15

on there. But no, I I really the one

00:30:17

thing we'll have going for us for sure

00:30:19

is that four new stadiums get to light

00:30:22

themselves on fire basically and be as

00:30:24

as fun as those stadiums have ever been.

00:30:27

I do think we'll get at least one good

00:30:28

game. mods suggests that we we should

00:30:31

especially with two games with tight

00:30:32

spreads, but it should just be a really

00:30:35

fun kind of spectacle again at the very

00:30:36

least.

00:30:38

>> Wonderful. All right, thanks for making

00:30:39

time for us. Enjoy it. Good luck with

00:30:41

your cutting your 8,000 down to six and

00:30:43

we look forward to reading it, Bill.

00:30:44

Thank you.

00:30:45

>> Sounds good.

00:30:46

>> Bill Connley, you can read him many

00:30:47

places. ESPN in particular, founder,

00:30:50

creator of SP Plus, fantastic follow on

00:30:53

Twitter and probably Blue Sky, I'm

00:30:55

guessing. Billc ESPN. At least that used

00:30:58

to be it. Bill Connley. Long time from

00:31:00

the show. That has been the first half

00:31:02

of Wharton Moneyball. Come back and join

00:31:04

us after the break.

00:31:07

Welcome back. Welcome back to the second

00:31:09

half of Wharton Moneyball. Just off the

00:31:12

lines with Bill Connley. Thankful always

00:31:15

for time with Bill. We're just going to

00:31:17

open things up here in the second half.

00:31:18

But before we do that, on the way out,

00:31:20

guys, on the way leave that

00:31:21

conversation, Shane was saying there at

00:31:24

the break that it had him fired up about

00:31:26

college football playoff. We got him

00:31:27

back from Europe and he had to get back

00:31:28

into football mindset, American sport

00:31:30

mindset. And that was a good pep talk

00:31:33

for you, Shane.

00:31:34

>> It was. It was. I got to say, yeah, I

00:31:35

was over in uh Switzerland for a week

00:31:37

and so I wasn't really uh keeping up

00:31:39

with kind of I heard the angst about the

00:31:41

college football playoffs, but it's nice

00:31:43

to actually dive into the matchups that

00:31:44

are as opposed to the matchups that

00:31:46

could have been.

00:31:46

>> That's right. That's exactly right. You

00:31:48

skipped the right season. Skipped the

00:31:50

angst season. Now you got back for the

00:31:51

actual games.

00:31:52

>> I love angst in general. I wish I could

00:31:54

have been around.

00:31:55

>> There's a time and place to litigate

00:31:57

that, but but now it's time to pay

00:31:58

attention to football. Um, we are

00:32:01

nearing NFL playoffs. We're not that far

00:32:04

away. We're down to is it four weeks?

00:32:06

Four, three weeks.

00:32:07

>> Three weeks.

00:32:08

>> Three weeks of games left. That's it.

00:32:10

Um, let's do uh what caught your eye,

00:32:12

but I know somebody's got who put this

00:32:14

on the board. This is the most

00:32:16

remarkable thing I've read in a while.

00:32:18

I'll give it to Shane because Shane's

00:32:19

probably made this observation.

00:32:21

>> Is this the 15 year? It's that it's been

00:32:23

15 years since the AFC Championship game

00:32:26

has not involved either Tom Brady or

00:32:28

Patrick Mahomes. 2010 was the last time

00:32:31

it happened. And Audi, do you remember

00:32:33

who uh the AFC Championship game was in

00:32:36

2010? Just for a throwback.

00:32:37

>> It wasn't the Jets.

00:32:39

>> It was It was the Jets.

00:32:40

>> It was the Jets. It was against the

00:32:42

Jets.

00:32:43

>> No kidding. Isn't that amazing?

00:32:46

>> I did not blanked that out. That's

00:32:48

>> Yeah, the Jets I mean it's so it's been

00:32:50

like over a decade of mediocrity since

00:32:53

then, but the Jets make the AFC

00:32:54

Championship two years in a row.

00:32:55

>> Yeah, that was Mark Sanchez, right?

00:32:57

>> Yes. Mark that.

00:32:59

>> My goodness. Okay.

00:33:01

>> It was a humble or two ago. It was it I

00:33:03

mean it was honestly the fact that we

00:33:04

have to go back. I mean this is more

00:33:06

just about obviously you know kind of

00:33:08

the the dynasty nature of the AFC the

00:33:11

last like this millennia I guess. Um,

00:33:14

and the fact that Mahomes specifically,

00:33:17

I mean Brady was very consistent

00:33:18

obviously in this, but Mahomes just so

00:33:20

consistently making I mean before this

00:33:23

year the um the earliest the Chiefs were

00:33:27

um eliminated um in the Mahomes era was

00:33:30

the overtime of the AFC Championship

00:33:33

game,

00:33:33

>> right?

00:33:35

[laughter]

00:33:35

>> That's unbelievable. Okay. Um, is there

00:33:39

any is there anything close to I mean

00:33:41

what would even come close to rivaling

00:33:43

that in terms of two players dominance

00:33:45

over half of the sport? I mean there's

00:33:49

there's not quarterbacks are kind of a

00:33:50

unique thing and these dynasties are

00:33:53

also relatively unique and they've

00:33:55

>> I think basketball the dynastic name

00:33:57

basketball I think you'd have to kind of

00:33:58

turn to

00:34:00

um and I you know it would only be kind

00:34:02

of something like where you know I mean

00:34:04

if we' been went right from essentially

00:34:07

be 2,000 acres without anything in

00:34:10

between maybe that would be the closest

00:34:12

analog.

00:34:12

>> Hold on hold on y'all went different

00:34:13

places. Let's let's do one at a time.

00:34:15

Eric said bird and magic. So, how many

00:34:17

how many finals in a row had either Bird

00:34:19

or Magic in

00:34:21

Well, I do know in the 80s the Lakers

00:34:23

won five. Um, the Celtics won three. So,

00:34:28

that's eight. The Sixers won one in the

00:34:30

80s. And I think maybe the Houston

00:34:33

Rockets may have won one or something.

00:34:35

>> There might have been a streak of like

00:34:36

eight or nine there because I know the

00:34:37

Sixers one was really early in the 80s.

00:34:39

And so,

00:34:40

>> 82 83

00:34:41

>> the Mahomes the Mahomes uh Brady is the

00:34:44

is the

00:34:44

>> Yeah. But anything

00:34:47

>> anything close anything structurally

00:34:48

close to that is what we're kind of

00:34:50

fishing around for.

00:34:51

>> Well, the Yankees and the Yankees in the

00:34:53

50s won of course five straight

00:34:55

championships and they would have gone

00:34:57

to the World Series. I mean, Yogi Barrow

00:34:59

won 11 championships in however many

00:35:01

years he played.

00:35:02

>> Matt played 13 seasons. I think he won

00:35:06

he went to the World Series in 10. I

00:35:07

mean, we're if we're allowed to go back

00:35:08

to when there was like eight teams in

00:35:10

the league also won like 11

00:35:12

championships in a row or something like

00:35:14

that in the NBA, right?

00:35:15

>> Thank you, Shane. I was going to go to

00:35:17

that like remind me honestly now I need

00:35:19

to be reminded how many teams were there

00:35:22

>> when the Yankees were dominating

00:35:29

>> and also you went you went straight from

00:35:31

winning the league to playing the World

00:35:32

Series. There was just like you win your

00:35:34

pennant, you go to the World Series. Is

00:35:35

that the way it was? Yes, that's right.

00:35:37

That's all there was was a World Series.

00:35:39

>> Okay.

00:35:40

>> Yeah. Bring up in tennis.

00:35:42

>> I was just going to bring up in tennis

00:35:44

now.

00:35:44

>> There you go. Yeah.

00:35:45

>> Between S and Alcarez.

00:35:47

>> Um I know they've won the last I'm going

00:35:50

to say eight or nine. And I mean they

00:35:52

haven't been around that long, but it's

00:35:54

probably been three years at least since

00:35:58

like the two of at least one of them

00:36:01

hasn't been in the final.

00:36:03

>> Okay. Wow. predicting just my own belief

00:36:07

unless one of them gets injured which

00:36:08

could obviously happen this could be the

00:36:11

greatest twoperson run unless a third

00:36:14

person joins him that's the problem is

00:36:16

you guys remember there was a stretch

00:36:19

between Nadal Federer and Djokovic where

00:36:22

they won something like well they have

00:36:25

66 combined between the three of them

00:36:28

they won something like 66 out of 71 or

00:36:32

two like Delpatro won one andy Murray

00:36:35

won three. So maybe it's 66 out of 75

00:36:38

cuz Murray won three, Winker won three,

00:36:40

and the um there's another guy that won

00:36:43

the US Open. I just forget his name um

00:36:46

that beats Verb in the finals, but like

00:36:48

those might be the only people with

00:36:51

championships in the last 20 years

00:36:54

except for those three players.

00:36:56

>> So Eric, remind me on that again. Um for

00:36:59

it feels like Feteran Nadal got going

00:37:01

before Djokovic joined that three. Am I

00:37:03

right? Was there a moment where veteran

00:37:05

Nadal kind of dominated? There's a

00:37:06

twoperson domination.

00:37:07

>> There is there is abs there's absolutely

00:37:10

a period where they dominated and

00:37:12

>> and you don't even have to look at ch

00:37:13

like really to kind of make this

00:37:14

analogous, you just expand out to like

00:37:16

making the semifinals essentially in

00:37:18

tennis, right? Because we're talking

00:37:19

about just going to the AFC Championship

00:37:21

game.

00:37:22

>> Well, the interesting thing is in

00:37:23

football they they have to come out of

00:37:25

the same conference. So, one of those

00:37:26

guys was coming out of the same side

00:37:27

every time.

00:37:28

>> Yeah.

00:37:29

>> Um this but okay, those are good. Those

00:37:32

are good analoges. That's interesting.

00:37:33

All right. So, that was Shane's caught

00:37:35

his eye as a starting point.

00:37:36

>> Let me build on Shane's since it

00:37:38

directly builds on it. So, I'm sitting

00:37:41

here thinking, especially given what

00:37:44

happened in the NFL this last week where

00:37:46

the Bills made a pretty impressive

00:37:48

comeback against a very good New England

00:37:50

team, by the way, somehow someway you

00:37:53

say if Josh Allen So, Mahomes is not

00:37:56

there now.

00:37:56

>> Oh, it's not

00:37:59

the Ravens are not making the playoffs

00:38:01

either.

00:38:01

>> So, Don't we're not giving up the fight

00:38:04

yet.

00:38:04

>> But they're likely not making the

00:38:06

playoffs. They could still They could

00:38:07

win the division. Absolutely. I I I

00:38:09

don't remember what their tiebreaker.

00:38:10

>> No, they're basically I mean the

00:38:12

division is their only path I think to

00:38:14

the playoffs at this point, but they

00:38:16

>> it's not I mean they're I guess probably

00:38:18

below 50%, but I mean they've still got

00:38:20

a game against Pittsburgh, right? So

00:38:22

>> yeah, they win out they'll they'll

00:38:23

they'll win they'll go to the playoffs,

00:38:25

I believe.

00:38:25

>> Oh, did they win the first game against

00:38:27

Pittsburgh? Do they have

00:38:28

>> They just lost it. They just lost it.

00:38:30

>> So I don't know whether

00:38:32

Either way, they let's assume they win

00:38:33

out, they catch up the game, they win

00:38:35

the tie break. All right. No, then they

00:38:36

can absolutely go. Um, this seems to be

00:38:39

a year there's even more pressure on

00:38:42

Josh Allen to get it done. And if he

00:38:45

doesn't get it done, then you have to

00:38:48

start wondering, look, not that he's old

00:38:49

or anything like that, but you have to

00:38:51

start wondering, does the Bills window

00:38:54

start to shut a little bit? And now you

00:38:56

start think maybe it's the Patriots

00:38:58

window, maybe it's the Broncos window,

00:39:00

maybe it's No, I'm just saying there are

00:39:02

teams in the that are strong.

00:39:05

>> Well, I mean I certainly I think just to

00:39:07

generalize your point, it seems as sex

00:39:08

more wide open at least on the AFC side

00:39:10

than it ever has or has been in years.

00:39:14

>> But you just went to something bigger

00:39:16

than just the season. You talk about the

00:39:18

Bills window closing. How many different

00:39:20

windows did Brady get?

00:39:22

>> Two.

00:39:23

>> Two big windows, right? two distinct big

00:39:26

windows and

00:39:27

>> there's at least three there's actually

00:39:29

three retoolings like like what we're

00:39:31

really kind of asking what I think

00:39:32

Eric's implying is that you know

00:39:34

typically for a team a window is only

00:39:36

like four five six years then you got a

00:39:37

cop like almost all teams you have to

00:39:40

have a down year or two and actually

00:39:42

even the Patriots did have you know that

00:39:44

2010 the one of the you know 2010 2011

00:39:47

the Jets made the championship a couple

00:39:49

times those were the Patriots down years

00:39:52

>> look the most amazing thing to me about

00:39:54

all all the great things Tom Brady

00:39:56

accomplished. He went 11 years without

00:40:00

winning the Super Bowl. But I just want

00:40:02

to say that again. If his career had

00:40:04

ended, if his career ends at age 36, 37,

00:40:08

which is where many quarterbacks career

00:40:10

ends, Tom Brady, I could argue, is not

00:40:14

the GOAT. He's one of the goats, but he

00:40:16

had three Super Bowl wins, right? And

00:40:18

then he went on to win four more.

00:40:22

That's what's remark. but with an

00:40:24

11-year stretch in between.

00:40:26

>> It's funny you said it ambiguously. You

00:40:28

said he went 11 years without winning

00:40:29

the Super Bowl. I'm like, well, how many

00:40:30

years did Marino go? [laughter]

00:40:32

>> No, but I meant after having won three

00:40:34

and four years, then he went 11 years.

00:40:36

>> No, you're you're 100% right. Marino had

00:40:39

an interesting case study too of like

00:40:41

you know I mean didn't he play like in

00:40:42

his rookies like one of his first couple

00:40:44

seasons he went to the Super Bowl second

00:40:46

year

00:40:47

>> and I'm sure at the time people were

00:40:48

like well this is going to be a

00:40:50

semiannual occurrence and I don't think

00:40:51

he ever made it back

00:40:53

>> he never made it back and they got blown

00:40:55

out in that Super Bowl and actually I

00:40:57

don't even remember if they played in an

00:40:59

AFC Championship game maybe one like he

00:41:01

didn't come close really to winning the

00:41:04

to even getting back to the Super Bowl

00:41:05

in the rest of

00:41:06

>> Okay, but we we got to get Josh Allen in

00:41:08

the Super Bowl. We have to. It's a crime

00:41:09

against humanity if he doesn't get into

00:41:11

the Super Bowl. And this is just his

00:41:13

first window. And this is my only point.

00:41:15

I think you you probably meant it that

00:41:16

way.

00:41:17

>> I meant that's the end the closing of

00:41:19

this window.

00:41:20

>> This window. This window. Very very

00:41:22

good. Well, I mean, where are you on the

00:41:24

AFC having seen that? Like the Ravens

00:41:27

could get on a run, the Bills could get

00:41:28

on a run. Neither one of these teams

00:41:30

has, you know,

00:41:32

done that great so far in the regular

00:41:34

season, but they have these quarterbacks

00:41:35

where when they're on, they're really

00:41:37

tough to beat. I mean, you don't want to

00:41:38

bet against either one of those teams.

00:41:42

>> I can speak for my Sorry. Go ahead,

00:41:43

Shane. I'm

00:41:44

>> dreaming of a 1985 Super Bowl rematch.

00:41:49

>> Come on.

00:41:50

>> Bears against the Patriots, baby.

00:41:52

>> Let's do it.

00:41:54

>> Do you want the outcome? Same outcome,

00:41:56

Shane?

00:41:56

>> No. No. No. Revenge rev. Revenge

00:41:58

rematch. Revenge rematch.

00:42:00

>> That was one of the most lopsided of all

00:42:02

time.

00:42:02

>> I can't if you It's Ed a Priori. Is it

00:42:04

better to get blown out in the Super

00:42:05

Bowl than not make the Super Bowl? No.

00:42:07

Actually,

00:42:08

>> I'll tell you which team I think I would

00:42:10

not want to play the most right now in

00:42:12

the AFC and that's the Houston Texans.

00:42:15

That team has come off the mat and they

00:42:19

look incredibly strong and you know, all

00:42:22

the concerns about Straoud now seem to

00:42:25

have gone away. Their defense is

00:42:28

certainly one of the top three or four

00:42:29

in the league. I'm just saying that's a

00:42:31

tough out.

00:42:32

>> You know who else has a great defense

00:42:33

and their quarterback's playing out of

00:42:35

his mind right now is Jacksonville.

00:42:37

>> Well, that's another op that's like 10

00:42:40

and four. Like look at Lawrence's last

00:42:42

few games. He's actually

00:42:44

>> that's that was going to be my uh

00:42:45

command.

00:42:46

>> Oh, I didn't mean to steal your thunder.

00:42:48

It's not much of a thunder, but just as

00:42:50

a little history, Kade likes to bring up

00:42:52

that when I built this model for

00:42:53

predicting um NFL draft rank based on

00:42:57

high school statistics, Lawrence had the

00:43:00

highest number ever. Um so based on his

00:43:03

high school, he was predicted to be and

00:43:05

he did go first in the draft after

00:43:08

college. Um but he hasn't had that great

00:43:10

a career, but my my algorithm never said

00:43:12

anything about that. That that's that

00:43:14

that I didn't check. Um,

00:43:16

>> well, you know, it's

00:43:18

>> it would be great if, you know, we have

00:43:20

more of these examples of guys who it

00:43:22

takes a few years and and they have to

00:43:24

overcome lots of doubts. I mean, Stout

00:43:26

has this unbelievable rookie season and

00:43:29

oh, imagine this, guys. His second

00:43:31

season isn't as good as his first. A

00:43:32

shocking. And so, let's not completely

00:43:35

get off the bus. But what most strikes

00:43:37

me about this conversation is that we're

00:43:38

talking about all these exciting AFC

00:43:40

teams, and we haven't even gotten to the

00:43:42

AFC West yet. I mean, the Broncos are

00:43:45

ridiculous. I still don't believe in

00:43:47

them somehow, but they're ridiculous.

00:43:48

And the Chargers, who I want to be

00:43:49

great, are actually doing reasonably

00:43:51

well. We're talking about six teams that

00:43:55

we think could reasonably represent or

00:43:57

maybe seven.

00:43:59

>> Yeah, I think it is that I I think

00:44:00

there's uh

00:44:02

>> I mean, you know, again, if if uh it

00:44:04

depends how it really kind of goes out.

00:44:06

If if Pittsburgh sneaks into the

00:44:08

playoffs, I'm going to I'm going to rule

00:44:09

them out of the Super Bowl

00:44:11

automatically. that's that's just their

00:44:13

usual like 10 and seven magic or

00:44:15

whatever. Um, but other than that, like

00:44:18

I do think any one of those teams are

00:44:20

legit kind of Super Bowl contenders. I

00:44:21

think the NFC is pretty wide open as

00:44:23

well. Uh, certainly not the teams that

00:44:25

necessarily expected to be strong on

00:44:27

that side, but you know, there's like

00:44:29

five or six teams I could talk into the

00:44:31

Super Bowl, I think, at least on the NFC

00:44:34

side as well.

00:44:34

>> Not the NFC South winner. I can promise

00:44:36

you that cuz I've seen

00:44:37

>> they are not one of the teams

00:44:39

unfortunately that I

00:44:40

>> not one of the teams. Whoever makes it

00:44:42

from that will uh well they could win

00:44:44

maybe. Let's be generous and say maybe

00:44:47

they could win the first round game at

00:44:48

home against maybe against Seattle.

00:44:52

Maybe you know if you don't trust

00:44:54

Darnold. No, I'm just saying.

00:44:55

>> Yeah. Yeah. Make it I but that's it.

00:44:57

They're not beating the Rams. They're

00:44:59

not beating the Eagles. They're not

00:45:00

beating the Lions. Whoever else up

00:45:02

there. They're not beating any of those

00:45:03

teams. What are you

00:45:06

I was just gonna ask like Eric like kind

00:45:08

of what your thoughts on like why

00:45:09

they've been I mean I've checked in on

00:45:11

them many times during the season

00:45:13

because you know I I follow them but

00:45:15

they seem again like um they're a

00:45:17

frustrating team almost like the Eagles

00:45:18

where I feel like even though they've

00:45:20

had some injuries the talent is is way

00:45:22

greater than the the outcome like I

00:45:24

don't know if it's a coaching thing

00:45:26

>> I think right now the team is uh the

00:45:28

fans the team everybody the coaching

00:45:31

that they're down on the coaching

00:45:32

despite the fact that Todd BS has won

00:45:34

the division This could be his fourth

00:45:36

straight year winning the division,

00:45:37

which is unheard of in the NFC South. Uh

00:45:40

secondly, um the thing that I've been

00:45:43

concerned about for the last seven

00:45:45

weeks, as I watch every obviously every

00:45:47

snap of all of their games, I I think

00:45:50

either he's injured or he's just not

00:45:52

playing well, Baker Mayfield is not

00:45:54

playing well. He's missing receivers. I

00:45:57

mean, he was I'm pretty sure for the

00:45:59

first half of the season, he was the

00:46:00

most accurate quarterback in the NFL and

00:46:03

he was completing over 70% of his

00:46:05

>> We were standing MVP at the time. I

00:46:07

remember

00:46:07

>> correct. He's not been playing well.

00:46:09

He's been overthrowing receivers,

00:46:11

missing open receivers, and also, by the

00:46:14

way, their three most accomplished

00:46:18

offensive players, by the way, were out

00:46:20

for six games. I mean, Mike Evans, Chris

00:46:23

Godwin, and their running back, Bucky

00:46:25

Irving. So, let me just say let me to

00:46:27

give him some credit. They are still

00:46:29

leading the division for whatever that's

00:46:31

worth and for literally they've I mean

00:46:35

he's been throwing to nobody. The rookie

00:46:37

Ibuka and a bunch of other guys you've

00:46:39

never heard of for seven or eight games

00:46:41

of the season, but no, I don't think

00:46:43

Baker Mayfield is playing well.

00:46:46

>> Yeah, I was just kind of looking at the

00:46:47

PFF grades and he's he he does not have

00:46:49

a good report there. I have to

00:46:53

>> um anything else in the NFC that is

00:46:55

exciting to you? I feel like there's no

00:46:57

people teams just keep on not they they

00:46:59

get a chance to really pull ahead. They

00:47:00

don't they get knocked down. They they

00:47:02

get up there and they get knocked down

00:47:03

again. The Rams are moving again. The

00:47:05

Seahawks are moving again. They've both

00:47:06

had bad losses, but they're sitting

00:47:08

there at 11 and three.

00:47:10

>> I got to ask my my question all over the

00:47:13

I got to ask my question again and again

00:47:14

and again. How much is it worth to you?

00:47:17

I'll ask a Starks. He's going to tell me

00:47:19

nothing. How much is it worth to you

00:47:20

that the Eagles are the defending Super

00:47:23

Bowl champion?

00:47:25

A number of players in their team have

00:47:27

been to two Super Bowls. They have a

00:47:28

history of success in the playoffs. They

00:47:30

got a winning coach, etc., etc. Does

00:47:33

that worth anything to you if the Eagles

00:47:37

are playing, I don't know, the Lions,

00:47:39

the Rams, whoever it is in the playoffs,

00:47:41

does that move the point spread at all

00:47:42

for you, you or it's not worth a thing?

00:47:44

>> Nope. Buddy, if you had to if you had to

00:47:47

>> if you had to take a side, one side or

00:47:49

the other you had to.

00:47:51

>> Okay. Which is the direction? Um I don't

00:47:54

think it hurts. So I would I clearly

00:47:56

would have to take the side of the the

00:47:58

experience.

00:47:58

>> I don't know. I I don't know if it's

00:48:00

clearly or not. I think you conditional.

00:48:02

One second. Conditional.

00:48:03

>> No, you asked me clearly. You said if I

00:48:05

had to pick a side. That's not clear in

00:48:08

that you said.

00:48:10

>> You said clearly that.

00:48:11

>> No, I said that if I had to. No, no, no.

00:48:13

The decision is clear. I didn't say that

00:48:15

the effect size is is is

00:48:17

>> I agree. I'd disagree with what you said

00:48:20

which is that the decision is clear

00:48:21

because

00:48:21

>> Okay. You think I think the downside

00:48:24

there's downsides to championships as

00:48:26

well. You get complacency and cockiness

00:48:29

and maybe a little less fire, all of

00:48:32

those things. Now, if you're going to

00:48:33

condition it on having gotten deep into

00:48:36

the playoffs, you've obviously overcome

00:48:37

some of those risks. So maybe I don't

00:48:39

care at that point. But if you had to

00:48:40

just if I had to pick a direction in

00:48:43

general for the success of the team the

00:48:44

next year, I would pick the short. I

00:48:46

would pick the other side.

00:48:48

>> Not to further complicate the mix, but

00:48:49

in this uh hypothetical exercise, we're

00:48:51

supposed to remember that the Eagles

00:48:52

have won the Super Bowl twice in the

00:48:54

last few years, but are we also supposed

00:48:56

to remember that 2023 collapse that

00:48:58

looks a lot like this one?

00:49:00

>> Or uh can can we are we can can we

00:49:03

condition on that as well? [laughter]

00:49:05

We've got the Eagles have three games to

00:49:07

kind of get things right. um you know if

00:49:11

they're going to win the division. It

00:49:12

looks like they're going to win the

00:49:13

division.

00:49:13

>> Well, you might even be cheering for

00:49:15

this 2023 analogy because if I remember

00:49:17

how that ended is they like limped into

00:49:19

the playoffs and got annihilated by the

00:49:21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

00:49:24

>> That is true.

00:49:26

>> Do they do they have injuries like they

00:49:27

have in 2023?

00:49:30

>> Not as much. Well, I mean, no. No. Here

00:49:32

it seems like the story is

00:49:35

>> the weakest part of the team right now,

00:49:36

Shane, I think you would agree, is the

00:49:38

offensive line. They're not creating

00:49:39

holes for the running back. They're not

00:49:41

protecting Herz that well. The offensive

00:49:43

line, Audi, has been banged up for the

00:49:44

Eagles this year. But if players, I

00:49:48

think Saquon's played almost every game.

00:49:50

I think Jaylen Herz has played every

00:49:51

game. I think

00:49:53

>> Devontto Smith has played most games. I

00:49:55

think uh AJ Brown maybe was out a game

00:49:58

or two, but nothing lengthy. So, the

00:50:00

answer is skilled players know, but the

00:50:02

big linemen, I think that's where the

00:50:04

injuries have happened.

00:50:06

>> Yeah. And I mean, Go ahead, Kate. Well,

00:50:08

I'm I was just No, I was just going to

00:50:10

say that the field seems more open to me

00:50:13

at this point than in memory. I mean, I

00:50:17

think than anytime since we've been

00:50:18

doing the show, let's put I would claim

00:50:20

that like

00:50:20

>> we still had the Mahomes cloud hanging

00:50:22

over us this time last year.

00:50:23

>> It opens it up. It opens it really does

00:50:27

>> and the fact that the Ravens are down

00:50:29

and the Eagles look you know less

00:50:31

>> so many of the top like if you take the

00:50:33

top eight teams say from last year and

00:50:36

you look at how or like you know I mean

00:50:37

are none of the AFC championship

00:50:40

contenders are going to well I guess the

00:50:42

Buffalo could still be in it but like I

00:50:43

mean you know I I I feel like it's going

00:50:45

to it's a fresh group of uh kind of

00:50:47

teams that

00:50:48

>> which makes it fun

00:50:50

>> makes it fun. All right let's change

00:50:52

sports. Odd, you haven't given us a

00:50:53

caught your eye yet. We've got a few

00:50:55

minutes left. What What would What do

00:50:56

you want to claim here?

00:50:57

>> Well, I what had caught my eye was the

00:50:59

performance of Trevor Lawrence in this

00:51:01

last game. I think best game is an

00:51:04

entire career. Um, but I can move on.

00:51:07

What's catching my eye in baseball is

00:51:09

some of the new contracts. Lonzo going

00:51:11

to the Orioles. Um, and uh, and the

00:51:15

question that that it was that that I

00:51:17

was ruminating on is how do we decide

00:51:20

whether or not someone's getting is

00:51:22

being over underpaid in their in their

00:51:24

in their free agent contract? There's a

00:51:26

rule of thumb that suggests that you

00:51:29

should be paying somewhere around 8 to9

00:51:33

million per war, but nobody knows how to

00:51:37

is comfortable defining what they mean.

00:51:39

Is that your past war that you should be

00:51:41

paying or are you paying for your future

00:51:43

war? And how do you determine that?

00:51:46

>> I mean, my own opinion is it should, I

00:51:48

guess, be some kind of future war, but

00:51:50

it shouldn't be war, right? Because war

00:51:52

again is good for comparing all players

00:51:55

because it's compared to like a

00:51:56

replacement player compared to who they

00:51:58

could kind of bring in for from like out

00:52:00

of the league, I guess, or like

00:52:02

whatever.

00:52:03

>> I bring that up, but hold on, Shane. I

00:52:05

bring it up only because we're trying to

00:52:06

I'm trying to answer a specific question

00:52:08

which is determine whether someone's

00:52:09

being over or underpaid.

00:52:10

>> Yeah. No, no, no. And I'm I guess I you

00:52:12

know I'm I'm I'm all for that exercise.

00:52:14

I just you know you'd have to kind of

00:52:16

somehow in my mind I feel like you'd

00:52:18

want to look at you know what you're

00:52:20

trying to estimate is kind of future

00:52:23

wins above who they had or like wins

00:52:27

above who they could have got. like it's

00:52:28

wins above replacement, but it's a

00:52:30

specific kind of when when you're

00:52:31

talking about free agency signings. It's

00:52:33

a different replace, you know, the it's

00:52:35

still a concept of replacement player

00:52:37

because it's free agent, but but you

00:52:38

know, you have to define it very

00:52:40

differently. Let me ask you, is there

00:52:41

any reason why that's the I understand

00:52:44

wins is sort of the goal, but isn't

00:52:46

winning the World Series the goal? So,

00:52:48

what I mean by that is let's imagine I

00:52:50

told you right now the Colorado Rockies,

00:52:53

they had the worst record, the White

00:52:54

Socks. I just forget which one. It was

00:52:55

the White Socks this last year. So if I

00:52:59

told you the White Socks could sign

00:53:00

Aaron Judge and you're saying it's based

00:53:02

on Warat 8 or N million. So 90 million a

00:53:05

year they're going to pay Aaron Judge

00:53:07

for the next 5 years. They're going to

00:53:09

pay him $450 million for 5 years. But we

00:53:12

know there's no chance they're winning

00:53:13

the or not no chance very low.

00:53:16

>> You you can't use probability winning

00:53:17

the World Series for evaluating a single

00:53:20

player transaction because even Aaron

00:53:21

Judge on a bad team isn't going to move

00:53:24

the needle. So my my point was is that

00:53:27

the value of a player economically

00:53:31

should relate to to what team is he

00:53:34

going to?

00:53:35

>> Yeah. Yeah.

00:53:35

>> That's what I was kind of getting.

00:53:36

>> Premium that you that the rich that the

00:53:39

good teams have to pay to get those

00:53:41

extra value and they'll pay it because

00:53:44

they need it to get over that hump.

00:53:46

Exactly.

00:53:46

>> I think 538 back in Neil Payne when he

00:53:49

was doing his uh his uh hot uh takedown

00:53:52

show, I don't know if you ever listened

00:53:53

to that back then. um they had this

00:53:55

metric where they would you'd pay this

00:53:57

extra penalty that you'd have to in

00:53:59

dollars in order to secure the players

00:54:04

um at the top. Um and it's a it's a it's

00:54:07

well you know you can calibrate it and

00:54:08

calculate it and it's it is a bonus. Um

00:54:11

>> by the way when you say um judge if you

00:54:14

were to pay jud judge for the next five

00:54:16

years you wouldn't do it at nine war.

00:54:19

That might be I wouldn't say he's going

00:54:20

to deliver nine war for five years. I'

00:54:23

I'd say five or six would be a good

00:54:25

average for the next five years. As a

00:54:27

statistician, as a Yankee fan, of

00:54:28

course, it's nine.

00:54:29

>> Yeah. Well, that's getting to the future

00:54:31

versus retrospective aspect of

00:54:32

>> Guys, I want to I want to I had a

00:54:34

conversation this past week that is is

00:54:37

on point here and I I want and y'all

00:54:39

y'all will find it interesting and and

00:54:40

it's also um

00:54:43

I'm curious your thoughts on it. So, the

00:54:45

Cubs World Series year,

00:54:47

>> remind me of the closer they traded for

00:54:50

at the deadline. His name

00:54:53

Cubs. Was that when they got Chapman?

00:54:55

>> Yeah.

00:54:56

>> Okay. Okay. So, that was an analytically

00:55:00

savvy staff. And let's just say that

00:55:04

let's say that

00:55:06

they were calculating the change in win

00:55:08

probability with that signing and they

00:55:11

had a very specific sense of what that

00:55:13

was. What do you think their starting

00:55:15

win probability was without that? And we

00:55:18

don't we don't we don't need all the

00:55:19

details. They were having a good season,

00:55:21

but they're like trying to take a good

00:55:22

season to just a little more likely

00:55:25

because because of what Eric says. What

00:55:26

we care about is winning the

00:55:27

championship. So, what do you think

00:55:29

they're starting? What do you think they

00:55:30

had their internally estimated when the

00:55:32

win the World Series probability before

00:55:34

and after that signing?

00:55:37

If you just had to guess, just ballpark.

00:55:38

There's no like um I'm going to guess

00:55:42

like a 5% difference or something like

00:55:45

that in the

00:55:45

>> No, it couldn't be that big. Must be

00:55:46

smaller than that. That was an internal

00:55:48

measurement. Do you know the answer to

00:55:49

this? This is

00:55:51

>> Let's say I know the answer. Let's just

00:55:52

assume.

00:55:53

>> Let's say he knows the answer. Um I

00:55:55

would say that the increment

00:55:58

is probably in the realm of 2% or so.

00:56:01

That would be my guess.

00:56:02

>> I would have guessed. I was my intuition

00:56:04

would have told me. Let me ask you a

00:56:05

question to calibrate us all. Let's

00:56:07

suppose I go back to the late 90s and I

00:56:11

tell you I'm going to take Mariano

00:56:13

Rivera off the Yankees

00:56:15

>> and I'm going to put in some good but

00:56:18

not above average but not exceptional

00:56:20

closure. I would think that would have

00:56:22

affected the Yankees winning by at least

00:56:24

5%. I I I agree.

00:56:27

>> Well, no. Chapman for short periods can

00:56:31

be as good as Mariano was for 15

00:56:34

consecutive years.

00:56:36

>> Somehow for the consistency

00:56:38

that's what cost you the money. That's

00:56:40

what gives you that probability that the

00:56:41

Ram

00:56:42

>> he was that was that was good Chapman

00:56:44

era. Remember he was he

00:56:46

>> 5%.

00:56:46

>> I mean Audi you guys you guys got the

00:56:49

worst of Chapman. He's actually been a

00:56:50

very consistent pitcher over most of his

00:56:52

career. Um

00:56:53

>> I'm traumatized by Chapman.

00:56:55

>> [laughter]

00:56:56

>> He doesn't pitch as well when they know

00:56:58

what's coming, bro.

00:56:59

>> Okay, so

00:57:02

>> anyway, I could imagine something like

00:57:04

that.

00:57:04

>> Come on, give us the answer. Yeah,

00:57:06

>> this is an internal question, not the

00:57:07

right answer. It's what they thought.

00:57:10

>> Let's say they thought it was 4%. Uh,

00:57:13

and it was from 21 to 25.

00:57:15

>> Yeah.

00:57:16

>> And I think it's

00:57:17

>> You say 20 to 25. And I I think the

00:57:19

analogy here is is the what the Dodgers

00:57:21

did this very recently which is

00:57:23

basically took a team that already has

00:57:25

probably a pretty high comfort chance to

00:57:28

win the World Series as high as it can

00:57:29

already be um and added the top closer

00:57:32

in the game which was their team

00:57:34

weakness which was their team weakness

00:57:37

>> in the PL previous season and the

00:57:39

playoffs. So my actual now I don't

00:57:41

remember the season in all its details

00:57:43

but I would have suggested the same

00:57:45

percentage change in the win probability

00:57:48

20%.

00:57:51

And uh but I had it down at much lower.

00:57:53

I would have guessed that the Cubs lower

00:57:55

season at half that. Yeah.

00:57:57

>> Well it was a very good team and I I to

00:57:59

me it's it I had I had zero calibration

00:58:02

for any of these numbers and it's about

00:58:03

these front office decisions because

00:58:05

they make this major trade decision.

00:58:07

They already got a strong team. The

00:58:08

question is when you've got a strong

00:58:09

team, is that the time to kind of push

00:58:11

in your chips a little further to

00:58:12

increase the chance of actually winning

00:58:13

the championship? Yes.

00:58:14

>> But if you do that, what are you

00:58:16

actually doing? You're only moving at

00:58:17

4%. It's like, wow, that that the big

00:58:19

move to really capitalize on the

00:58:21

momentum is to move it from 21 to 25.

00:58:23

>> Wow.

00:58:25

>> And that's about right.

00:58:26

>> Paid off. In this case, it paid off. All

00:58:27

right. Good fun, guys. Why don't we wrap

00:58:29

it there then? We will come back and do

00:58:31

another show next week. Oh, we're moving

00:58:34

into the 23rd. Are we going to do a show

00:58:35

on the 23rd? That's an open question. We

00:58:37

will revisit that offline and come back.

00:58:39

We'll probably do something next week in

00:58:41

some form, but we're nearing the end of

00:58:42

the year, which is stunning. Um, thanks

00:58:45

for the whole team here. On behalf of

00:58:47

Shane Jensen, on behalf of Audi Wer, on

00:58:49

behalf of Eric Bradlo, many thanks to

00:58:51

Dion Simpkins, to Dion Patel, to Marissa

00:58:55

Raina, to the whole team who supports

00:58:56

us. We appreciate it. And to you guys

00:58:58

for listening, come back and join us

00:58:59

next time. Between now and then, enjoy

00:59:01

your sports.

Episode Highlights

The Absurd Process of the Playoff
Bill discusses the flaws in the current college football playoff selection process.
“This was the dumbest process imaginable.”
@ 02m 16s
December 18, 2025
JMU vs. Oregon Preview
Bill analyzes the matchup between James Madison University and Oregon, highlighting key points.
“If it’s scoreless after like 10 minutes, then I’m confident.”
@ 08m 38s
December 18, 2025
Miami vs A&M: A Must-Watch Showdown
The Miami at A&M game is touted as the most interesting of week one, with playoff implications.
“Miami at A&M is the most interesting game of week one!”
@ 17m 28s
December 18, 2025
Unpredictable Matchup: Miami and A&M
Both teams could win by a large margin, showcasing their volatility.
“If you tell me either team won by 28 points, I’ll believe you immediately.”
@ 18m 04s
December 18, 2025
Georgia's Winning Formula
Georgia has figured out how to win games effectively, showcasing their resilience.
“Georgia has figured out the formula to win these games.”
@ 24m 53s
December 18, 2025
AFC Championship Game Streak
It's been 15 years since the AFC Championship game didn't feature Brady or Mahomes.
“Isn't that amazing?”
@ 32m 46s
December 18, 2025
Josh Allen's Pressure
With Mahomes out, Josh Allen faces increased pressure to secure a playoff spot.
“It's a crime against humanity if he doesn't get into the Super Bowl.”
@ 41m 11s
December 18, 2025
Texans' Resurgence
The Houston Texans have shown incredible strength and resilience this season.
“That team has come off the mat and they look incredibly strong.”
@ 42m 15s
December 18, 2025
Eagles' 2023 Collapse
The Eagles' current season resembles their 2023 collapse, raising concerns about their performance.
“Looks a lot like this one?”
@ 48m 58s
December 18, 2025
Trevor Lawrence's Best Game
Trevor Lawrence delivered the best performance of his career in the last game.
“Best game is an entire career.”
@ 51m 04s
December 18, 2025
Cubs World Series Decision
The Cubs made a significant trade for a closer during their World Series year, affecting their championship odds.
“What do you think their starting win probability was without that?”
@ 55m 00s
December 18, 2025

Episode Quotes

I want to reitigate. I want to reitigate it forever.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
They know exactly what they have to do to win a football game.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
Georgia has figured out the formula to win these games.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
It's unbelievable.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
That team has come off the mat and they look incredibly strong.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics
It opens it up. It opens it really does.
Breaking Down the College Football Playoff With Advanced Metrics

Key Moments

Playoff Week00:40
Guest Introduction00:54
JMU vs. Oregon08:38
Optimistic Outlook16:09
Miami vs A&M17:28
Georgia's Resilience24:53
AFC Championship Streak32:26
Cubs Trade54:55

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown

Inside College Football’s Data-Driven Evolution and Decision-Making

January 22, 2026

01:10:36

Inside College Football’s Data-Driven Evolution and Decision-Making

Bill Connelly on College Football Chaos, Coaching Carousel, and Predicting the Future of the Game

October 31, 2025

59:01

Bill Connelly on College Football Chaos, Coaching Carousel, and Predicting the Future of the Game

When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs

January 15, 2026

01:10:28

When Analytics Meet Chaos in Football Playoffs

NFL Week 3 Analytics Insights and MLB Home Run Chase & Playoff Outlook

September 18, 2025

01:01:26

NFL Week 3 Analytics Insights and MLB Home Run Chase & Playoff Outlook

How Analytics Are Changing the Game in College Football

September 16, 2025

01:00:12

How Analytics Are Changing the Game in College Football

From Masters Victory to Motion Data: Golf’s Analytical Evolution

April 16, 2026

01:01:58

From Masters Victory to Motion Data: Golf’s Analytical Evolution

College Football Preview, Sinner vs Alcaraz, and a Competitive Women’s Tennis Field

August 15, 2025

01:00:26

College Football Preview, Sinner vs Alcaraz, and a Competitive Women’s Tennis Field

Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power

January 12, 2026

01:08:34

Data-Driven NFL Playoffs and College Football’s Shifting Power

NBA Playoff Analytics, Victor Wembanyama, and the Hot Hand Debate

May 20, 2026

01:03:03

NBA Playoff Analytics, Victor Wembanyama, and the Hot Hand Debate

Baseball Analytics, NFL Parity, and College Football Playoff Odds

November 16, 2025

01:01:01

Baseball Analytics, NFL Parity, and College Football Playoff Odds

NFL Analytics Preview, QB Forecasts, and Team Rankings for 2025

August 05, 2025

01:05:14

NFL Analytics Preview, QB Forecasts, and Team Rankings for 2025

Breaking Barriers in Sports Performance: Technology, Analytics, and the Race for a Sub-4-Minute Mile

October 06, 2025

01:30:53

Breaking Barriers in Sports Performance: Technology, Analytics, and the Race for a Sub-4-Minute Mile