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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting today with the whole crew. Eric Bradlo is here. Audi Winer here is here. Shane
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Jensen's here. All of us from our home offices. That may be No, no, Audi's at
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work. Audi's at work. He's at work. The rest of us at home offices. We also have
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a guest. We're introducing him in just a minute. We are recording on Tuesday
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afternoon as we typically do a little earlier in the day. It'll go up on Wednesday. We are going to run a regular
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show today. Going to have a guest in the first half hour and open lines in the second half hour. This week, well, we
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have the college football playoff on us. Now, this is playoff week round one week
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and we it's been a little while since we've done this. We want to talk college
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football. Who do we want to talk college football with? Like everybody else, we want to talk it with Bill Connley. Bill
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Connley gracious enough to join us. Bill, welcome in. Good to see you. >> Yeah, absolutely.
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>> Bill, and you've got to be busier than usual this week. You said coming on
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7,000word round one preview. Is that right? That's a lot of words, Bill. >> I think it's going to come in at about
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eight and then I'm going to try to cut it to six, I think, is the goal here.
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Um, all right. It can't all be 8,000 words. Like, sure, some people might want to read that, but I got to get it
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down a little bit. Hey, Bill. Is there more than about 30 or 40 words to say about two of the games?
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>> Yes. Yes. >> That's that's what Bill's that's his
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mission in life is to make us care about somebody other than Georgia and Ohio State.
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>> Actually, the the game that might be the hardest is um nobody not even my OU fan
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friends wanted to see an Alabama Oklahoma rematch. >> Um that was ugly ugly football and it
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will be ugly football again. So, that one was the hardest. Do you think the committee gave any
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consideration to matches? And do you think they should? >> Because they were locked in to this
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absurd process where if there's a team separating Notre Dame and Miami, Miami
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will get in. And if there's not a team separating Notre Dame, or sorry, if there's a team separating Notre Dame and
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Miami, Notre Dame will get in. And if there's not a team separating Notre Dame
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and Miami, Miami will get in. They couldn't move Alabama because that would impact who gets in between Notre Dame
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and Miami. And this was the dumbest process imaginable. It just exposed to every single flaw in the current system.
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So I don't think they could have moved them because if they moved Alabama to
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give them a different matchup, suddenly Notre Dame's in instead of Miami because
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that's what we want out of this. >> Okay. So we we are not going to relitigate the playoff.
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>> I want to reitigate. I want to reitigate it forever. >> Well, you know, there they did tweak
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things uh between year one and two of the 12 team format. Perhaps they'll tweak it again.
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Maybe something about the process. I don't think anybody's ever been as unhappy about it as it's been a long
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time. It's been almost a generation before we've been since we've been this
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unhappy. But let's not for the time being, let's not. Let's go forward.
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Let's go forward looking and talk about actual football. And I've been away from
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the show for a couple of weeks and we've been away from college football the
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whole world has except for, you know, Army Navy and that riveting Washington Boise State game this weekend. What do
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we need to Let's get back into the frame of mind, Bill. We've got some playoff
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football. This is only the second year that we've had, you know, four round one
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games on We have playoff games on home campuses. I mean, let let's get back into that mindset. Tell us tell us what
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you're excited about this weekend. Give us like three big ideas or three things
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you're excited about to get us back in this frame of mind. >> Well, I guess the most me answer I could
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give would be Montana, Montana State for a spot in the FCS finals. That's what
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I'm most excited about. But We here are interested of course in Villanova. That's right. That's right.
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>> Gale played Montana in the second round of that. >> Montana State. Get it right. Montana
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State. >> Montana State. Right. [laughter] >> I I have many opinions about that, but
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uh I I guess I'll focus on the what we're actually supposed to talk about.
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No, I you know, this is you're right. This was you know, last year we got three four bad games. Technically, not
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not any of them were close, but they were still pretty incredible in that they unlocked this new substance for
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college football called playoff home field advantage. Like watching SMU's quarterback have to cover his ears
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because things were so loud, they call a timeout, they come back from the timeout
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and it's louder and he immediately throws a pick six. That was just that that was kind of amazing. You know,
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college football's always kind of known for the the atmospheres and whatnot, and
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we unlocked a whole new thing. Uh, and now we got four new home stadiums to kind of show off here with with Owen
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Field with uh, you know, uh, Cal College Station, Oxford, Norman, and Eugene. Um,
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that's going to be that's going to be cool in and of itself. It's it is a
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spectacle in that regard. So hopefully, you know, if we get one amazing game, that'll be one more than last year. will
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just be continuing to trend upward and and we'll see if we get that one. >> Can I get a quick answer and uh tell me
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what is the point spread differential for a home game currently estimated in college?
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>> So, I've always the thing that's always worked best to me is about two and a
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half points. I've fiddled with less than that at times. I think there have been a
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couple years where maybe it should have been less and of course, you know, 20 and 21 got all weird, but I still use
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two and a half. >> It's a very new dynamic for playoff games. Well, I mean, playoff games
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obviously are a new dynamic themselves, but having the home field, is there a much of a movement towards I know cuz
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the next >> is this the only round that's actually in home stadium then they start moving
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into the Bulls and everything like that. Is there >> much energy towards additional home, you
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know, put it like it would be >> there's extreme energy for it. There's a
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lot of energy for it. Everybody wants quarterfinal home games as well. The problem is the bowls had to be kind of,
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you know, placated to get the system we got. And therefore, you know, I'm personally I wrote about this last year
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and I I still think I'm right. Um, you know, they basically they wanted those
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quarterfinals in major bowl slots because that would, you know, make the major bowls still feel like major bowls
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and whatnot. I don't think that's true. Like if you basically put the quarterfinals in home sites, uh, but
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then took like just basically the top eight teams that didn't make the field,
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stick them in those four major bowls, among other things, we would have gotten a USC Texas Rose Bowl this year on the
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20th anniversary of the US USC Texas Rose Bowl that we all still talk about. That would have been a lot better than
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Indiana versus Oklahoma or something where it's just basically using Pasadena
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as a neutral site quarterfinal. Oh, >> and in fact, you could argue it's
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probably more competitive because the distance between say like 13, 14, 15th best team in the nation,
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you know, and the 20th is much smaller than what we're doing with like, you know, one and
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>> right. Well, Bill, give us a give us a couple words on age and let's work up
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let's work up kind of from the bottom maybe. So, g give us something on J Madison, James Madison versus Oregon.
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Like, what could we learn? Oregon presumably is an actual national title contender, but can we learn anything
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about them from their game against James Madison? >> Well, JMU's defense really is pretty
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solid. You know, it's not going to be Big 10 solid. I'm sure they're a little
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lighter here and there. Um, but they held Louisville like beginning of the year, Louisville was kind of banged up
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all year, but they were about as healthy as they'd been all season. They held
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Louisville to like 285 yards. Um, they're first in my success rate measure. Success rate allowed. JMU is uh
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I think I think Oregon's going to this is going to be kind of your typical mid-
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major upset approach I think from JMU where you know give them whatever they want between the 30s, let them run the
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ball, whatever, and then try to stop them on third downs and and limit the pass and things like that. Oregon hasn't
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always passed very well this year. The receiving core has been all over the place in terms of injuries. Um and I
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think Jam have a chance at least to do the third downs, red zone, no big plays kind of approach and I think they have
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enough talent to do that. Um, where I'm more concerned, I think is JMU's
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offense. Like when they the better defenses they played, it was pretty much big plays or nothing for them. They they
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beat, you know, Washington State had the weirdest year ever. Almost beat two playoff teams in Old Miss and James
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Madison. And JMU got like a 70 yard run late that that basically took that game for them. Had they were struggling
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against Troy and Snow and all this stuff and Wayne Knight rips off another big run and kind of opens things up for
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them. I don't think they're going to pull that off. you're you're going to
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have to get to at least 20 points against Oregon. I'm not sure they can, but I think it can absolutely be a
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competitive game. Problem is, two years ago, we watched Oregon play Liberty in a
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in a major bowl game, that G5 thing again, and they acted like they were offended they even had to share the
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field with Liberty and just absolutely erased them from the opening snap. So, I need to if it's tied after if it's still
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scoreless after like 10 minutes, then I'm confident, Jim, you can put together
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a really good game. But I do still have that memory in the back of my head that they're just going to come out and be up
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21 nothing immediately. >> So Bill, what do you see maybe to uh Cad's point, what do you see that the
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betting market's not seeing? You think you it could be it could be a competitive game, but the line's 21.
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>> Yeah, I mean SP plus NFBI have it around 15, I think. Um, and that's just because
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JMU with the schedule they have faced, which of course only included one power conference team. Um, in against
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Louisville, team that also beat Miami, and it was tied midway through the fourth quarter till a fumble basically.
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Um, you know, they are JMU graded out great on paper. Their defense has been awesome all year. Their offense has been
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awesome the back half of the season. Um, and they're a good team. Like that's
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again, I think Oregon has a gear that only four or five teams have. I would say there are five teams I think that
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could compete for the title and they're they're the only one that doesn't get a
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buy. Um and so yeah, I would expect Oregon to look great and and win, but for the season as a whole, they've only
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apparently been about 15 points better than JMU. >> All right, that's the last game of the
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weekend. That's Saturday night. The game before that is the other G5 game. That's
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Tain going to miss. It's a Southern Southern game. It's also a coaching change coaching change situation. What
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which is very odd for two playoff teams. So give us something that we should keep
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an eye on or why we should be interested in two lane miss. >> Um the the major thing and I'm I'm going
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to lean on this in the in the preview just so I can try to make it sound as interesting as possible. We saw this
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game in September as well and and uh Miss won by 35 which is never great uh heading in. But also, we've had six
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rematches this season, five conference title games, and the whole Oregon State, Washington State playing twice thing.
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And in five of the six, the team that lost the first game won the second, and they were huge, like 27 point swing in
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one game, 24-point swing in another. Uh, Tain played its worst game imaginable early in the season. Jake Rzleaf, their
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quarterback. He showed up on campus in August. He was booted from BYU over the summer. Uh, we're kind of mutually
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whatever that situation ended up being. Weird stuff. look it up. Um, but he shows up in August. He, um, you know,
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first two games of the year, they were able to run well enough that he didn't
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even really have to have chemistry with his receivers. Then suddenly he had to have chemistry because they couldn't run
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all that well. Had no chemistry with his receivers. Had the worst game of his life. The uh, Old Miss, meanwhile, had
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just uh, transitioned to Trinidad Chambles at quarterback. Uh, the F State go D2 the Fair State transfer. Um, and
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he had only started one game at that point. So, Twain thought, "Hey, new guy.
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Let's attack as much as possible. let's blitz and make him uncomfortable. And he
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crushed them. Just absolutely obliterated them because you can't do that to him as other teams have found
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out. So I think basically we're going to get a much better performance from Tain
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here. Both because Rleaf knows his receivers names and because they understand what Chamblas can and can't
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do. That's probably not enough to make up 35 points and miss is the better team. But again, I do think we're going
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to get a we could get a much more entertaining game out of it. aside from all the unknowns of yeah Lane Keifin's
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already gone, John Summer's leaving all that stuff is going to you know that
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that's a a weird thing to itself I guess. >> So Bill, how much does the change in
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coaching that K just brought up affect like the way you're thinking? Like how
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much does does it move the spread in your mind or the win probability? >> So it's different in that John Suml is
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still at two lane. Um, but you can't when when Lane Keifin leaves for one of
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Miss's rivals, you can't let him stay at Old Miss and continue to make everybody feel like he's recruiting
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all Miss's best players to LSU. So, if it impacts anybody, you would think it
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would impact Miss negatively, but it is such a a nebulous thing. I mean, they played so well down the stretch despite
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all the the rumors and the winds blowing about Kein leaving and all that. So they
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are clearly their own team and they still have you Golden the defensive coordinator has now taken over. So
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really it's only one person who's really changed. Um so I don't I don't really
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anticipate any specific change. If there's a change I figure it's negative
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for Old Miss but I'm doubting. >> Well that I'm you could tell a story
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that they're now galvanized and they're pissed at Ke they like they feel like abandoned and
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we're going to show him and it would be one hell of a story if they made a run
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in the playoffs after he left. >> We can pick that up. >> They're they're a strong team. there. I
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you know, we're gonna once we do the first round games before we leave, we'll
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get a little bit of a thought from you on the rest of the bracket. But you already gave away that you think there
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are five real contenders. That means Miss is not one of them. Um which is which is reasonable, but let's come back
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to it. Okay. The Friday night game is the 89 game. That's Alabama going to Oklahoma for a rematch. I believe the
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first game was at Alabama that Oklahoma managed to win somehow. Um so you said this was going to be ugly. Um, neither
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one of these teams is gonna make a long run in the playoffs, right? They're going to run up against Indiana the next
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time, but what what's interesting to you about Alabama? >> Well, I think I mean, you know, there
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were two games. I looked it up. I have my postgame win expectancy number. Um, which basically which I always tweet out
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and and it's reasonably popular on on social where I look at like here are all
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the stats from this given game. Toss them up in the air and it says that team A would have won this game x% of the
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time based on success rates and blah blah blah. U this was the fifth least likely result of the season according to
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postgame win expectancy Alabama almost doubled Oklahoma's yardage almost doubled their success rate um basically
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from the stats the game produced oh you had a 5% chance of winning but they returned a pick 87 yards for a touchdown
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they blocked a field goal at the end of the first half they recovered three I think it was three turnovers for Alabama
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one was a muff punt uh OU scored points on three drives that didn't gain more
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than like 30 yards uh it was just the basically the strategy that the uh Super Bowl champion Eagles are using this
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season as well to win games. I think >> like an extreme version of that. Yes.
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>> Outcome not at all agreeing with the peripherals. >> No, it was um it was a really super ugly
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game. And from that standpoint alone, you figure I mean all all Alabama has to do is play like they did last time and
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not muff a punch or not get a field goal blocked or lose two other turnovers and
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they're fine. Um but they haven't looked like a playoff team since October. Um
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they they they handled Tennessee really well. They finished that four grand stretch where they won four straight
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ranked games. They they had the best resume in the country and then they were out of gas. They they didn't look great
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against South tried to blow it against South Carolina. Didn't look great against LSU. Looked downright bad
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against Auburn and still rose in the playoff rankings after that game and then got crushed by Georgia and somehow
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didn't fall in the playoff rankings. So they're very lucky to be here and you
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know now that they're here and they've heard they spent the last two weeks
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being told they're lucky to be here. So that you know you never know the whole
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galvanizing thing but Ty Simpson's like timing is gone. He's been battling
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without a run game all year and suddenly he just looked horrific against George.
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Didn't look very good against Auburn either. So if that doesn't change it
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doesn't matter. U will still win. But, uh, they can at least take heart in the
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fact that they were on paper they were demonstraably superior the first time around.
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>> I feel like the rhetoric around Oklahoma's defense just got stronger and
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stronger over the course of the year. Maybe because their defense did venibles of course has that reputation. Matier
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the wild card at the end of the season that he seemed at the beginning of the season. I would say overall you sound a
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little bit optimistic about Oklahoma. >> Yeah. I mean basically because of
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Alabama well and and the fact that oh you you know to the extent that identity really matters in these things. They
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know exactly what they have to do to win a football game. Um Alabama's kind of
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lost in the winds right now. They don't know how they're going to move the ball
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or anything like that. But you know we're going to play defense. We're going
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to force turnovers. We're gonna pounce on every single Our offense may stink,
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but we're great in the red zone. So, any chance we get, we're getting seven
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points out of it. Uh, and we're gonna hope to hit one big pass play at some point in the game. Missouri completely
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controlled the first half against Oklahoma, but could only get up like three nothing cuz OU's defense was
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really good and they missed a field goal and then suddenly won I think it was like an 87 yard pass to Isaiah Satenia
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and poof, they were ahead and they went on to win like 176. one big pass play to Satania against LSU
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as well and and that was it. So >> that's their formula and they know it
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really well and and to the extent that that matters like I'd rather just have a
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great overall team that probably would matter more but they are very confident in their formula and that could end up
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mattering here. >> Okay. Well, so can can Simpson get his mojo back? That's an interesting
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question especially against Venable's defense. Can Satena can they continue to
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hit hit this Satena button? you know that and can they get any defensive turnovers? Okay, fine. Okay, the surely
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the most interesting game of week one is Miami at&m. It's the first game on
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Saturday. Um you know Kyle Field is a one of the great places to see football in America and this is going to be a
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playoff game there. Are you kidding me? They should have put this the night game. I can't believe they didn't. But
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11 o'clock still central time. Miami I mean you you've you've you've said
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there's only five contenders of the others. I mean, Miss must have some kind
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of remote chance. And Miami, surely I'm a little short on&m because of Marcel
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Reed, but Miami maybe, maybe. What do you think about this game? >> I This is And I'm This is what I've set
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it up in the preview. If you tell me either one of these teams won by 28 points, I'll believe you immediately. Um
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they are both extremely just up and down and and kind of frantic teams at time especially&m &m you can
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basically guarantee that Marcel Reed's going to look terrible for one quarter
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and great for one and then the other two quarters are going to basically decide the game
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>> and and so that can go in any number of directions. Miami is just man they just
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don't so number one their defense is very good um secondary completely recrafted in in the transfer portal kind
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of underrated almost uh because we talk a lot about Ruben Bane up front and Ake Mezador up front secondary's been
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awesome the whole defense is good not necessarily I mean&m's played other good
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defenses so they're not going to be surprised by that or the athleticism or anything but really good unit Miami's
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offense however is just you know six yards at a and um very efficient. Fewest big plays by far of anybody in this
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field. Um they really are just kind of measured and didn't conduct down the field, which is fine except that means
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you need like 11 plays to score a touchdown. And there have been a couple games where Carson Beck can't go 11
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plays without throwing an interception. So um they looked spectacular at the beginning of the year. They they really
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did look strong late. Once I once they started climbing somehow catching up to Notre Dame in the playoff rankings, they
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started playing well again. Uh in between they were extremely mediocre and um more mediocre than I think&m's been
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at any stretch this season. So that's really Yeah, I I I this is a it's really
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hard to get a read on this game because you could really talk yourself into a huge advantage either way. If it's
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close&M uh because a they're they they they're experienced in that this year. They're
00:19:52
the four and01 score games and Miami just can't escape the Mario Crystal Ball
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allegations when it comes to being too tight, too conservative, uh just too cautious down the stretch. It c it cost
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them twice and almost cost them two more times. >> Okay. Is it fair to characterize&m's a
00:20:09
some defenses and&m seems to be one of these defenses this year is it's really
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kind of an explosive play defense. It's a it's a high havoc defense. They get a
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lot not for losses, but they get these big blowing planes against them. Um, okay. So, I saw that against South
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Carolina big time. Saw it against Texas big time. It seems to be the philosophy.
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Um, how does that match up with how you characterize Miami's six yards in a cloud of dust kind?
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>> Yeah, that's that that's one of the reasons why like if you tell me Miami
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just, you know, number one was remained efficient but also made big plays because&m always gives up big plays,
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then they're set. They're going to they're going to roll. But if they can't
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be efficient because&M renders you inefficient, they they force the longest third downs in the country. They have
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the best third down conversion rate allowed in the country. They have the best pass rush numbers in the country.
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Um if Miami isn't able if if they're in second and eight or third and seven a
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lot that favors&m dramatically. So it is one of those kind of strength versus
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weakness weakness versus strength kind of situations that you can you can really talk yourself into seeing
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anything. >> Eric's going to jump in. >> You Bill, I was just going to ask you
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the length of time between when they last played. Have you have you or others have they ever looked at does it tend to
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favor the stronger team, the weaker team, the offense, the defense? Has there been any studies of this and like
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what should we expect? Because I'm like, you know, the standard I have six days
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to prepare for this other team. I've had four weeks to prepare for this other
00:21:34
team. >> This specific gap is kind of a new one. Um, and that basically everybody's had
00:21:40
two weeks off now, maybe three. Um, and last year, so basically last year was the first time we saw everybody with
00:21:45
this this exact gap of time. And it turned out the favorites rolled in all the games. So maybe that's maybe that's
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the answer, but it is like we're used to bowl breaks where everybody's off for
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like six weeks. This one's right in between. It's it's like two by weeks
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instead of an actual huge gap. And so I don't know. I think we need we need more
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data on this one. But last year it sure seemed to well last year I guess it favored all the favorites in the first
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round and then it favored all the teams that had just played in the first round in the quarterfinals because all those
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other teams have been off a month in the quarterfinals and all the teams that had
00:22:17
buys struggled. >> Well, there's even one more wrinkle. Some of these teams played in conference
00:22:21
championships. Um in fact, well, and some didn't. No, all of them. All of them did. The second round hosts all
00:22:28
played in conference championships. So, it dampens that that time off. But it's
00:22:31
an open question, Eric. And people have been people argue about like, is it an advantage to have the buyer or not?
00:22:36
Because it buys you this extra time, but it also might slow things down. Audi's
00:22:39
been trying to get in as well. >> Odd. >> Nope. >> Your hand is up, buddy. Your hand is up.
00:22:47
I'm trying to >> Oh, that was from before and forgot to take it down. >> All right. My bad. All right, Bill.
00:22:53
Before we go, you've given us a fantastic preview of the first round, but we don't want to neglect the guys
00:22:59
that are waiting on the other side of the first round. We've got Texas Tech in
00:23:02
the fourth seed taking the JMU Oregon winner. We have we have um Georgia in the third seed waiting for yet another
00:23:10
Southern team, Tain or Old Miss. We have Ohio State in the second seed waiting for that winner, that game we we're just
00:23:16
kind of getting excited about in College Station, the the&m Miami game. And then
00:23:21
Indiana, number one seed, Indiana. My god, we could have done the whole episode on them waiting for yet another
00:23:26
red team, Alabama or Oklahoma. What are your thoughts on the second round and and what are your thoughts about those
00:23:31
four teams? Um, how uniform are your are your probabilities over championships across
00:23:37
those four teams? >> Uh, so the the probabilities on the SP plus side right now is basically let's
00:23:43
see 29% Ohio State, 24% Indiana, 21% Texas Tech. My numbers love Texas Tech and they love Texas Tech despite the
00:23:51
fact that >> I mean they're they're that they're much higher on Texas Tech than others and
00:23:54
every single week Tech overachieves against projections by like two touchdowns. So it can't it can't ra
00:24:00
raise that number high enough for to catch Tech. So I think they're pretty fantastic. They're going to obviously
00:24:05
have by far the hardest challenge in the in the quarterfinals if all the favorites win here and they have to play
00:24:10
Oregon because I do think I think Tech is third in SP plus but Oregon is longer, all those kinds of the things
00:24:19
that those matter. Uh so I think that's a really really tough game for them. But
00:24:23
but from a numbers standpoint, those three stand out and then you've got Georgia at 10%. Georgia really
00:24:28
>> surpris I test from afar I wouldn't have put them at like a third of Ohio State and
00:24:35
half of Georgia at Texas Tech, you Well, it depends on if you watched early in the season when they looked like they
00:24:40
were just going playing games unprepared um and just like, "Oh, we'll figure it
00:24:43
out." And then not looking good until the fourth quarter and figuring it out
00:24:46
and winning. Um >> but how relevant is early in the season at this point? >> Yeah. No, that's I mean Georgia has
00:24:53
figured out the the formula here. They basically their second national title year with the four-game playoff, they
00:24:58
basically did the same thing. They looked very just mediocre for stretches at a time, but they always brawled their
00:25:03
way to a win and then looked great at the end. So, >> and Ohio State last year.
00:25:07
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean it's I, you know, I would have them I have them at 10%. I
00:25:11
would have them closer to the pack than that, but from a number standpoint, I get it because SP saw the first half of
00:25:17
the season and doesn't trust them all that much. Also, their offense is like
00:25:20
Miami in that they don't make big plays at all. Um, as the defense really rounded into form late in the year, you
00:25:26
could really start to question that the Georgia offense against Georgia Tech. Uh, terrible Georgia Tech defense. They
00:25:32
really didn't do a single thing against them. Um, Alabama has a good defense,
00:25:35
but they didn't do much against Alabama either. It was just Bama's offense
00:25:39
wasn't doing anything. So, I don't completely trust Georgia, but you just
00:25:43
have to to some degree say that Kirby Smart knows how to win these games and they're just going to brawl their way
00:25:48
in. >> Bill receeding happen in college football. >> I I like I like when brackets take on
00:25:54
their own personality like in the like in March Madness where some years you have a bunch of chalk and other years
00:25:59
the bracket w opens wide open for the eight seat or something like that. like I that's that's what I enjoy. And um so
00:26:05
I I don't think so. I think um you know if we have a situation where you know whatever we're talking about
00:26:12
here, Alabama suddenly becomes Alabama again and rolls through Oklahoma and Indiana um you know their reward should
00:26:17
be an easier semi-final game, not necessarily having to play like Ohio State or something in the semis.
00:26:22
>> Guys, I'm curious your response to the probabilities that Bill gave. He gave S
00:26:27
sp SP plus probabilities and he said 29, 24, 21 and 10 among the top four seeds and then we kind of fudged the 10 back
00:26:35
up because we think George has probably got some non-stationity that's working
00:26:38
in his favor now. So make him 15 maybe take some of that from everybody. But spreading from 27 to 15 the top four
00:26:45
seeds that feels relatively flat to me. You're talking about just right at two
00:26:49
to one between >> and nobody has a one in three chance. So >> yeah. >> Um which is exciting. I mean, you're
00:26:55
saying Texas Tech, a G a G5 team, has a >> Not exactly. Not exactly. >> They're just not an SEC or Big 10 team.
00:27:05
>> Oh, I'm sorry. Not Yeah, of course. Of course. Oh, look what I've done. Look
00:27:08
what I've done to the fans. >> My goodness gracious. I should Oh, hope
00:27:13
my family doesn't listen to that. >> Entitlement superiority comes in quick
00:27:18
as it turns. [laughter] You got a nice natural experiment here. There's lots of ways to summarize the
00:27:24
quote unquote flatness. The first thing that struck me is that the highest team is quote unquote only 29%. That's one
00:27:32
way to look at it. Another is the difference between the first and the fourth, right? That's another way to
00:27:38
look at it kind of being pretty flat. Um, another way is also just looking at the total probability of the top four
00:27:47
versus everyone else. So, Bill, with just roughly, I would have to give you somewhere in the 8 to N to1 odds to take
00:27:52
anybody outside the top four. >> 74. Yeah, it's about 84 85% for the top
00:27:59
four. And last year when they gave buys to the conference champions and we had kind of a weird bracket
00:28:04
>> where Ohio State was the best team in the country and the eight seed. That was
00:28:08
certainly a different situation, which I didn't I didn't mind. I don't mind
00:28:11
weird. I think that should be very obvious. Uh, but it's definitely true this year where the top four teams are
00:28:15
probably unless you want to make a case for Oregon and I think you could. They were the top they were the four best
00:28:21
teams as well and therefore it kind of played out like it should and Oregon if they do handle JMU they're at 7% right
00:28:27
now. Nobody else is above well miss is at four and a half% everybody else is at two or lower. Um,
00:28:33
>> but that's but as soon as you get one and six one and six and you get Oregon
00:28:37
and then the chance that Matier actually plays well Simpson gets his mojo back. Miss is galvanized in the absence of
00:28:44
Lane Keifin or Miami, you know, Beck lifts the offense somehow ultimately like you get one in six chance you get
00:28:51
all those possibilities. Does that appeal to anybody? Aie, you always like the field. You want the field on this
00:28:55
one? >> And just to clarify, they don't >> outside the top four. I don't think I
00:29:00
do. >> Not Not if Bill's numbers are accurate. Not even close. >> I'm told they're not. If that helps you
00:29:06
at all. I'm told a lot on your numbers are accurate. It makes this point moot.
00:29:10
But they don't do receding. No. >> Right in this. >> No, that's what I said. Yeah. No
00:29:14
receding. >> I think one and six is not I think one and six would be fun. It be It'd be fun
00:29:20
card to have, but you're running against four very good teams sitting there at
00:29:23
the top of the bracket. >> What's interesting, Bill? >> No, wait, hold on a minute. Al, are you
00:29:26
asking me whether I would take the field at one and one and six? >> Yeah, that's what of course I am.
00:29:30
>> That's a I I mean, yeah, for sure. >> But why? That's fair odds. It's fair
00:29:37
odds. Why are you so excited now? >> No. No. Oh, I thought you meant the 50/50 mark, right? Usually
00:29:42
>> No, no, no, no. Even at 8515, that's fair odds, Audi, according to FBI.
00:29:48
>> Right. Right. Right. So, I would probably take the field at that. Give if
00:29:51
I if you gave me those odds. >> Okay. All right. Um All right, Bill, we should let you go. Um, what is the
00:29:57
single thing you're most excited about seeing this weekend other than just football again? And you can say Montana
00:30:02
State. That's fine. >> Well, yeah. I mean, I am Brawl of the Wild and and the F the Fair State
00:30:07
Harding D2 title game are both going to be really fun split screen viewing. I got the YouTube multi- view going on and
00:30:14
uh that's going to be really fun to have on there. But no, I I really the one
00:30:17
thing we'll have going for us for sure is that four new stadiums get to light
00:30:22
themselves on fire basically and be as as fun as those stadiums have ever been. I do think we'll get at least one good
00:30:28
game. mods suggests that we we should especially with two games with tight spreads, but it should just be a really
00:30:35
fun kind of spectacle again at the very least. >> Wonderful. All right, thanks for making
00:30:39
time for us. Enjoy it. Good luck with your cutting your 8,000 down to six and we look forward to reading it, Bill.
00:30:44
Thank you. >> Sounds good. >> Bill Connley, you can read him many places. ESPN in particular, founder,
00:30:50
creator of SP Plus, fantastic follow on Twitter and probably Blue Sky, I'm guessing. Billc ESPN. At least that used
00:30:58
to be it. Bill Connley. Long time from the show. That has been the first half of Wharton Moneyball. Come back and join
00:31:04
us after the break. Welcome back. Welcome back to the second half of Wharton Moneyball. Just off the
00:31:12
lines with Bill Connley. Thankful always for time with Bill. We're just going to
00:31:17
open things up here in the second half. But before we do that, on the way out, guys, on the way leave that
00:31:21
conversation, Shane was saying there at the break that it had him fired up about
00:31:26
college football playoff. We got him back from Europe and he had to get back into football mindset, American sport
00:31:30
mindset. And that was a good pep talk for you, Shane. >> It was. It was. I got to say, yeah, I
00:31:35
was over in uh Switzerland for a week and so I wasn't really uh keeping up with kind of I heard the angst about the
00:31:41
college football playoffs, but it's nice to actually dive into the matchups that
00:31:44
are as opposed to the matchups that could have been. >> That's right. That's exactly right. You
00:31:48
skipped the right season. Skipped the angst season. Now you got back for the actual games.
00:31:52
>> I love angst in general. I wish I could have been around. >> There's a time and place to litigate
00:31:57
that, but but now it's time to pay attention to football. Um, we are nearing NFL playoffs. We're not that far
00:32:04
away. We're down to is it four weeks? Four, three weeks. >> Three weeks.
00:32:08
>> Three weeks of games left. That's it. Um, let's do uh what caught your eye,
00:32:12
but I know somebody's got who put this on the board. This is the most remarkable thing I've read in a while.
00:32:18
I'll give it to Shane because Shane's probably made this observation. >> Is this the 15 year? It's that it's been
00:32:23
15 years since the AFC Championship game has not involved either Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. 2010 was the last time
00:32:31
it happened. And Audi, do you remember who uh the AFC Championship game was in 2010? Just for a throwback.
00:32:37
>> It wasn't the Jets. >> It was It was the Jets. >> It was the Jets. It was against the
00:32:42
Jets. >> No kidding. Isn't that amazing? >> I did not blanked that out. That's
00:32:48
>> Yeah, the Jets I mean it's so it's been like over a decade of mediocrity since
00:32:53
then, but the Jets make the AFC Championship two years in a row. >> Yeah, that was Mark Sanchez, right?
00:32:57
>> Yes. Mark that. >> My goodness. Okay. >> It was a humble or two ago. It was it I
00:33:03
mean it was honestly the fact that we have to go back. I mean this is more just about obviously you know kind of
00:33:08
the the dynasty nature of the AFC the last like this millennia I guess. Um, and the fact that Mahomes specifically,
00:33:17
I mean Brady was very consistent obviously in this, but Mahomes just so consistently making I mean before this
00:33:23
year the um the earliest the Chiefs were um eliminated um in the Mahomes era was
00:33:30
the overtime of the AFC Championship game, >> right? [laughter] >> That's unbelievable. Okay. Um, is there
00:33:39
any is there anything close to I mean what would even come close to rivaling that in terms of two players dominance
00:33:45
over half of the sport? I mean there's there's not quarterbacks are kind of a
00:33:50
unique thing and these dynasties are also relatively unique and they've >> I think basketball the dynastic name
00:33:57
basketball I think you'd have to kind of turn to um and I you know it would only be kind
00:34:02
of something like where you know I mean if we' been went right from essentially
00:34:07
be 2,000 acres without anything in between maybe that would be the closest analog.
00:34:12
>> Hold on hold on y'all went different places. Let's let's do one at a time.
00:34:15
Eric said bird and magic. So, how many how many finals in a row had either Bird or Magic in
00:34:21
Well, I do know in the 80s the Lakers won five. Um, the Celtics won three. So, that's eight. The Sixers won one in the
00:34:30
80s. And I think maybe the Houston Rockets may have won one or something. >> There might have been a streak of like
00:34:36
eight or nine there because I know the Sixers one was really early in the 80s. And so,
00:34:40
>> 82 83 >> the Mahomes the Mahomes uh Brady is the is the >> Yeah. But anything
00:34:47
>> anything close anything structurally close to that is what we're kind of
00:34:50
fishing around for. >> Well, the Yankees and the Yankees in the 50s won of course five straight
00:34:55
championships and they would have gone to the World Series. I mean, Yogi Barrow won 11 championships in however many
00:35:01
years he played. >> Matt played 13 seasons. I think he won he went to the World Series in 10. I
00:35:07
mean, we're if we're allowed to go back to when there was like eight teams in
00:35:10
the league also won like 11 championships in a row or something like that in the NBA, right?
00:35:15
>> Thank you, Shane. I was going to go to that like remind me honestly now I need
00:35:19
to be reminded how many teams were there >> when the Yankees were dominating
00:35:29
>> and also you went you went straight from winning the league to playing the World
00:35:32
Series. There was just like you win your pennant, you go to the World Series. Is
00:35:35
that the way it was? Yes, that's right. That's all there was was a World Series.
00:35:39
>> Okay. >> Yeah. Bring up in tennis. >> I was just going to bring up in tennis
00:35:44
now. >> There you go. Yeah. >> Between S and Alcarez. >> Um I know they've won the last I'm going
00:35:50
to say eight or nine. And I mean they haven't been around that long, but it's
00:35:54
probably been three years at least since like the two of at least one of them hasn't been in the final.
00:36:03
>> Okay. Wow. predicting just my own belief unless one of them gets injured which
00:36:08
could obviously happen this could be the greatest twoperson run unless a third person joins him that's the problem is
00:36:16
you guys remember there was a stretch between Nadal Federer and Djokovic where they won something like well they have
00:36:25
66 combined between the three of them they won something like 66 out of 71 or two like Delpatro won one andy Murray
00:36:35
won three. So maybe it's 66 out of 75 cuz Murray won three, Winker won three,
00:36:40
and the um there's another guy that won the US Open. I just forget his name um
00:36:46
that beats Verb in the finals, but like those might be the only people with championships in the last 20 years
00:36:54
except for those three players. >> So Eric, remind me on that again. Um for
00:36:59
it feels like Feteran Nadal got going before Djokovic joined that three. Am I right? Was there a moment where veteran
00:37:05
Nadal kind of dominated? There's a twoperson domination. >> There is there is abs there's absolutely
00:37:10
a period where they dominated and >> and you don't even have to look at ch
00:37:13
like really to kind of make this analogous, you just expand out to like making the semifinals essentially in
00:37:18
tennis, right? Because we're talking about just going to the AFC Championship
00:37:21
game. >> Well, the interesting thing is in football they they have to come out of
00:37:25
the same conference. So, one of those guys was coming out of the same side every time.
00:37:28
>> Yeah. >> Um this but okay, those are good. Those are good analoges. That's interesting.
00:37:33
All right. So, that was Shane's caught his eye as a starting point. >> Let me build on Shane's since it
00:37:38
directly builds on it. So, I'm sitting here thinking, especially given what happened in the NFL this last week where
00:37:46
the Bills made a pretty impressive comeback against a very good New England team, by the way, somehow someway you
00:37:53
say if Josh Allen So, Mahomes is not there now. >> Oh, it's not the Ravens are not making the playoffs
00:38:01
either. >> So, Don't we're not giving up the fight yet. >> But they're likely not making the
00:38:06
playoffs. They could still They could win the division. Absolutely. I I I don't remember what their tiebreaker.
00:38:10
>> No, they're basically I mean the division is their only path I think to
00:38:14
the playoffs at this point, but they >> it's not I mean they're I guess probably
00:38:18
below 50%, but I mean they've still got a game against Pittsburgh, right? So
00:38:22
>> yeah, they win out they'll they'll they'll win they'll go to the playoffs,
00:38:25
I believe. >> Oh, did they win the first game against Pittsburgh? Do they have
00:38:28
>> They just lost it. They just lost it. >> So I don't know whether
00:38:32
Either way, they let's assume they win out, they catch up the game, they win
00:38:35
the tie break. All right. No, then they can absolutely go. Um, this seems to be a year there's even more pressure on
00:38:42
Josh Allen to get it done. And if he doesn't get it done, then you have to start wondering, look, not that he's old
00:38:49
or anything like that, but you have to start wondering, does the Bills window start to shut a little bit? And now you
00:38:56
start think maybe it's the Patriots window, maybe it's the Broncos window,
00:39:00
maybe it's No, I'm just saying there are teams in the that are strong. >> Well, I mean I certainly I think just to
00:39:07
generalize your point, it seems as sex more wide open at least on the AFC side than it ever has or has been in years.
00:39:14
>> But you just went to something bigger than just the season. You talk about the
00:39:18
Bills window closing. How many different windows did Brady get? >> Two. >> Two big windows, right? two distinct big
00:39:26
windows and >> there's at least three there's actually three retoolings like like what we're
00:39:31
really kind of asking what I think Eric's implying is that you know typically for a team a window is only
00:39:36
like four five six years then you got a cop like almost all teams you have to have a down year or two and actually
00:39:42
even the Patriots did have you know that 2010 the one of the you know 2010 2011 the Jets made the championship a couple
00:39:49
times those were the Patriots down years >> look the most amazing thing to me about
00:39:54
all all the great things Tom Brady accomplished. He went 11 years without winning the Super Bowl. But I just want
00:40:02
to say that again. If his career had ended, if his career ends at age 36, 37, which is where many quarterbacks career
00:40:10
ends, Tom Brady, I could argue, is not the GOAT. He's one of the goats, but he
00:40:16
had three Super Bowl wins, right? And then he went on to win four more. That's what's remark. but with an
00:40:24
11-year stretch in between. >> It's funny you said it ambiguously. You
00:40:28
said he went 11 years without winning the Super Bowl. I'm like, well, how many
00:40:30
years did Marino go? [laughter] >> No, but I meant after having won three and four years, then he went 11 years.
00:40:36
>> No, you're you're 100% right. Marino had an interesting case study too of like
00:40:41
you know I mean didn't he play like in his rookies like one of his first couple
00:40:44
seasons he went to the Super Bowl second year >> and I'm sure at the time people were
00:40:48
like well this is going to be a semiannual occurrence and I don't think he ever made it back
00:40:53
>> he never made it back and they got blown out in that Super Bowl and actually I
00:40:57
don't even remember if they played in an AFC Championship game maybe one like he
00:41:01
didn't come close really to winning the to even getting back to the Super Bowl
00:41:05
in the rest of >> Okay, but we we got to get Josh Allen in the Super Bowl. We have to. It's a crime
00:41:09
against humanity if he doesn't get into the Super Bowl. And this is just his
00:41:13
first window. And this is my only point. I think you you probably meant it that way.
00:41:17
>> I meant that's the end the closing of this window. >> This window. This window. Very very
00:41:22
good. Well, I mean, where are you on the AFC having seen that? Like the Ravens could get on a run, the Bills could get
00:41:28
on a run. Neither one of these teams has, you know, done that great so far in the regular
00:41:34
season, but they have these quarterbacks where when they're on, they're really
00:41:37
tough to beat. I mean, you don't want to bet against either one of those teams.
00:41:42
>> I can speak for my Sorry. Go ahead, Shane. I'm >> dreaming of a 1985 Super Bowl rematch.
00:41:49
>> Come on. >> Bears against the Patriots, baby. >> Let's do it.
00:41:54
>> Do you want the outcome? Same outcome, Shane? >> No. No. No. Revenge rev. Revenge
00:41:58
rematch. Revenge rematch. >> That was one of the most lopsided of all time.
00:42:02
>> I can't if you It's Ed a Priori. Is it better to get blown out in the Super
00:42:05
Bowl than not make the Super Bowl? No. Actually, >> I'll tell you which team I think I would
00:42:10
not want to play the most right now in the AFC and that's the Houston Texans.
00:42:15
That team has come off the mat and they look incredibly strong and you know, all
00:42:22
the concerns about Straoud now seem to have gone away. Their defense is certainly one of the top three or four
00:42:29
in the league. I'm just saying that's a tough out. >> You know who else has a great defense
00:42:33
and their quarterback's playing out of his mind right now is Jacksonville. >> Well, that's another op that's like 10
00:42:40
and four. Like look at Lawrence's last few games. He's actually >> that's that was going to be my uh
00:42:45
command. >> Oh, I didn't mean to steal your thunder. It's not much of a thunder, but just as
00:42:50
a little history, Kade likes to bring up that when I built this model for predicting um NFL draft rank based on
00:42:57
high school statistics, Lawrence had the highest number ever. Um so based on his
00:43:03
high school, he was predicted to be and he did go first in the draft after college. Um but he hasn't had that great
00:43:10
a career, but my my algorithm never said anything about that. That that's that
00:43:14
that I didn't check. Um, >> well, you know, it's >> it would be great if, you know, we have
00:43:20
more of these examples of guys who it takes a few years and and they have to overcome lots of doubts. I mean, Stout
00:43:26
has this unbelievable rookie season and oh, imagine this, guys. His second season isn't as good as his first. A
00:43:32
shocking. And so, let's not completely get off the bus. But what most strikes
00:43:37
me about this conversation is that we're talking about all these exciting AFC
00:43:40
teams, and we haven't even gotten to the AFC West yet. I mean, the Broncos are
00:43:45
ridiculous. I still don't believe in them somehow, but they're ridiculous.
00:43:48
And the Chargers, who I want to be great, are actually doing reasonably well. We're talking about six teams that
00:43:55
we think could reasonably represent or maybe seven. >> Yeah, I think it is that I I think
00:44:00
there's uh >> I mean, you know, again, if if uh it depends how it really kind of goes out.
00:44:06
If if Pittsburgh sneaks into the playoffs, I'm going to I'm going to rule
00:44:09
them out of the Super Bowl automatically. that's that's just their usual like 10 and seven magic or
00:44:15
whatever. Um, but other than that, like I do think any one of those teams are legit kind of Super Bowl contenders. I
00:44:21
think the NFC is pretty wide open as well. Uh, certainly not the teams that necessarily expected to be strong on
00:44:27
that side, but you know, there's like five or six teams I could talk into the
00:44:31
Super Bowl, I think, at least on the NFC side as well. >> Not the NFC South winner. I can promise
00:44:36
you that cuz I've seen >> they are not one of the teams unfortunately that I
00:44:40
>> not one of the teams. Whoever makes it from that will uh well they could win
00:44:44
maybe. Let's be generous and say maybe they could win the first round game at
00:44:48
home against maybe against Seattle. Maybe you know if you don't trust Darnold. No, I'm just saying.
00:44:55
>> Yeah. Yeah. Make it I but that's it. They're not beating the Rams. They're
00:44:59
not beating the Eagles. They're not beating the Lions. Whoever else up there. They're not beating any of those
00:45:03
teams. What are you I was just gonna ask like Eric like kind of what your thoughts on like why
00:45:09
they've been I mean I've checked in on them many times during the season
00:45:13
because you know I I follow them but they seem again like um they're a frustrating team almost like the Eagles
00:45:18
where I feel like even though they've had some injuries the talent is is way
00:45:22
greater than the the outcome like I don't know if it's a coaching thing >> I think right now the team is uh the
00:45:28
fans the team everybody the coaching that they're down on the coaching despite the fact that Todd BS has won
00:45:34
the division This could be his fourth straight year winning the division, which is unheard of in the NFC South. Uh
00:45:40
secondly, um the thing that I've been concerned about for the last seven weeks, as I watch every obviously every
00:45:47
snap of all of their games, I I think either he's injured or he's just not
00:45:52
playing well, Baker Mayfield is not playing well. He's missing receivers. I mean, he was I'm pretty sure for the
00:45:59
first half of the season, he was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL and he was completing over 70% of his
00:46:05
>> We were standing MVP at the time. I remember >> correct. He's not been playing well.
00:46:09
He's been overthrowing receivers, missing open receivers, and also, by the way, their three most accomplished
00:46:18
offensive players, by the way, were out for six games. I mean, Mike Evans, Chris
00:46:23
Godwin, and their running back, Bucky Irving. So, let me just say let me to give him some credit. They are still
00:46:29
leading the division for whatever that's worth and for literally they've I mean
00:46:35
he's been throwing to nobody. The rookie Ibuka and a bunch of other guys you've
00:46:39
never heard of for seven or eight games of the season, but no, I don't think
00:46:43
Baker Mayfield is playing well. >> Yeah, I was just kind of looking at the
00:46:47
PFF grades and he's he he does not have a good report there. I have to >> um anything else in the NFC that is
00:46:55
exciting to you? I feel like there's no people teams just keep on not they they
00:46:59
get a chance to really pull ahead. They don't they get knocked down. They they
00:47:02
get up there and they get knocked down again. The Rams are moving again. The Seahawks are moving again. They've both
00:47:06
had bad losses, but they're sitting there at 11 and three. >> I got to ask my my question all over the
00:47:13
I got to ask my question again and again and again. How much is it worth to you?
00:47:17
I'll ask a Starks. He's going to tell me nothing. How much is it worth to you
00:47:20
that the Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champion? A number of players in their team have
00:47:27
been to two Super Bowls. They have a history of success in the playoffs. They got a winning coach, etc., etc. Does
00:47:33
that worth anything to you if the Eagles are playing, I don't know, the Lions,
00:47:39
the Rams, whoever it is in the playoffs, does that move the point spread at all for you, you or it's not worth a thing?
00:47:44
>> Nope. Buddy, if you had to if you had to >> if you had to take a side, one side or
00:47:49
the other you had to. >> Okay. Which is the direction? Um I don't think it hurts. So I would I clearly
00:47:56
would have to take the side of the the experience. >> I don't know. I I don't know if it's
00:48:00
clearly or not. I think you conditional. One second. Conditional. >> No, you asked me clearly. You said if I
00:48:05
had to pick a side. That's not clear in that you said. >> You said clearly that.
00:48:11
>> No, I said that if I had to. No, no, no. The decision is clear. I didn't say that
00:48:15
the effect size is is is >> I agree. I'd disagree with what you said which is that the decision is clear
00:48:21
because >> Okay. You think I think the downside there's downsides to championships as
00:48:26
well. You get complacency and cockiness and maybe a little less fire, all of those things. Now, if you're going to
00:48:33
condition it on having gotten deep into the playoffs, you've obviously overcome
00:48:37
some of those risks. So maybe I don't care at that point. But if you had to just if I had to pick a direction in
00:48:43
general for the success of the team the next year, I would pick the short. I would pick the other side.
00:48:48
>> Not to further complicate the mix, but in this uh hypothetical exercise, we're
00:48:51
supposed to remember that the Eagles have won the Super Bowl twice in the last few years, but are we also supposed
00:48:56
to remember that 2023 collapse that looks a lot like this one? >> Or uh can can we are we can can we
00:49:03
condition on that as well? [laughter] We've got the Eagles have three games to
00:49:07
kind of get things right. um you know if they're going to win the division. It
00:49:12
looks like they're going to win the division. >> Well, you might even be cheering for
00:49:15
this 2023 analogy because if I remember how that ended is they like limped into the playoffs and got annihilated by the
00:49:21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers. >> That is true. >> Do they do they have injuries like they
00:49:27
have in 2023? >> Not as much. Well, I mean, no. No. Here it seems like the story is
00:49:35
>> the weakest part of the team right now, Shane, I think you would agree, is the
00:49:38
offensive line. They're not creating holes for the running back. They're not
00:49:41
protecting Herz that well. The offensive line, Audi, has been banged up for the Eagles this year. But if players, I
00:49:48
think Saquon's played almost every game. I think Jaylen Herz has played every
00:49:51
game. I think >> Devontto Smith has played most games. I think uh AJ Brown maybe was out a game
00:49:58
or two, but nothing lengthy. So, the answer is skilled players know, but the big linemen, I think that's where the
00:50:04
injuries have happened. >> Yeah. And I mean, Go ahead, Kate. Well, I'm I was just No, I was just going to
00:50:10
say that the field seems more open to me at this point than in memory. I mean, I
00:50:17
think than anytime since we've been doing the show, let's put I would claim
00:50:20
that like >> we still had the Mahomes cloud hanging over us this time last year.
00:50:23
>> It opens it up. It opens it really does >> and the fact that the Ravens are down
00:50:29
and the Eagles look you know less >> so many of the top like if you take the
00:50:33
top eight teams say from last year and you look at how or like you know I mean are none of the AFC championship
00:50:40
contenders are going to well I guess the Buffalo could still be in it but like I
00:50:43
mean you know I I I feel like it's going to it's a fresh group of uh kind of
00:50:47
teams that >> which makes it fun >> makes it fun. All right let's change
00:50:52
sports. Odd, you haven't given us a caught your eye yet. We've got a few
00:50:55
minutes left. What What would What do you want to claim here? >> Well, I what had caught my eye was the
00:50:59
performance of Trevor Lawrence in this last game. I think best game is an entire career. Um, but I can move on.
00:51:07
What's catching my eye in baseball is some of the new contracts. Lonzo going
00:51:11
to the Orioles. Um, and uh, and the question that that it was that that I was ruminating on is how do we decide
00:51:20
whether or not someone's getting is being over underpaid in their in their in their free agent contract? There's a
00:51:26
rule of thumb that suggests that you should be paying somewhere around 8 to9 million per war, but nobody knows how to
00:51:37
is comfortable defining what they mean. Is that your past war that you should be
00:51:41
paying or are you paying for your future war? And how do you determine that? >> I mean, my own opinion is it should, I
00:51:48
guess, be some kind of future war, but it shouldn't be war, right? Because war
00:51:52
again is good for comparing all players because it's compared to like a replacement player compared to who they
00:51:58
could kind of bring in for from like out of the league, I guess, or like whatever.
00:52:03
>> I bring that up, but hold on, Shane. I bring it up only because we're trying to
00:52:06
I'm trying to answer a specific question which is determine whether someone's
00:52:09
being over or underpaid. >> Yeah. No, no, no. And I'm I guess I you know I'm I'm I'm all for that exercise.
00:52:14
I just you know you'd have to kind of somehow in my mind I feel like you'd
00:52:18
want to look at you know what you're trying to estimate is kind of future wins above who they had or like wins
00:52:27
above who they could have got. like it's wins above replacement, but it's a
00:52:30
specific kind of when when you're talking about free agency signings. It's
00:52:33
a different replace, you know, the it's still a concept of replacement player
00:52:37
because it's free agent, but but you know, you have to define it very differently. Let me ask you, is there
00:52:41
any reason why that's the I understand wins is sort of the goal, but isn't
00:52:46
winning the World Series the goal? So, what I mean by that is let's imagine I
00:52:50
told you right now the Colorado Rockies, they had the worst record, the White Socks. I just forget which one. It was
00:52:55
the White Socks this last year. So if I told you the White Socks could sign Aaron Judge and you're saying it's based
00:53:02
on Warat 8 or N million. So 90 million a year they're going to pay Aaron Judge
00:53:07
for the next 5 years. They're going to pay him $450 million for 5 years. But we
00:53:12
know there's no chance they're winning the or not no chance very low. >> You you can't use probability winning
00:53:17
the World Series for evaluating a single player transaction because even Aaron Judge on a bad team isn't going to move
00:53:24
the needle. So my my point was is that the value of a player economically should relate to to what team is he
00:53:34
going to? >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That's what I was kind of getting. >> Premium that you that the rich that the
00:53:39
good teams have to pay to get those extra value and they'll pay it because they need it to get over that hump.
00:53:46
Exactly. >> I think 538 back in Neil Payne when he was doing his uh his uh hot uh takedown
00:53:52
show, I don't know if you ever listened to that back then. um they had this metric where they would you'd pay this
00:53:57
extra penalty that you'd have to in dollars in order to secure the players um at the top. Um and it's a it's a it's
00:54:07
well you know you can calibrate it and calculate it and it's it is a bonus. Um
00:54:11
>> by the way when you say um judge if you were to pay jud judge for the next five
00:54:16
years you wouldn't do it at nine war. That might be I wouldn't say he's going
00:54:20
to deliver nine war for five years. I' I'd say five or six would be a good
00:54:25
average for the next five years. As a statistician, as a Yankee fan, of course, it's nine.
00:54:29
>> Yeah. Well, that's getting to the future versus retrospective aspect of
00:54:32
>> Guys, I want to I want to I had a conversation this past week that is is
00:54:37
on point here and I I want and y'all y'all will find it interesting and and
00:54:40
it's also um I'm curious your thoughts on it. So, the Cubs World Series year,
00:54:47
>> remind me of the closer they traded for at the deadline. His name Cubs. Was that when they got Chapman?
00:54:55
>> Yeah. >> Okay. Okay. So, that was an analytically savvy staff. And let's just say that
00:55:04
let's say that they were calculating the change in win probability with that signing and they
00:55:11
had a very specific sense of what that was. What do you think their starting win probability was without that? And we
00:55:18
don't we don't we don't need all the details. They were having a good season,
00:55:21
but they're like trying to take a good season to just a little more likely because because of what Eric says. What
00:55:26
we care about is winning the championship. So, what do you think they're starting? What do you think they
00:55:30
had their internally estimated when the win the World Series probability before and after that signing?
00:55:37
If you just had to guess, just ballpark. There's no like um I'm going to guess
00:55:42
like a 5% difference or something like that in the >> No, it couldn't be that big. Must be
00:55:46
smaller than that. That was an internal measurement. Do you know the answer to this? This is
00:55:51
>> Let's say I know the answer. Let's just assume. >> Let's say he knows the answer. Um I
00:55:55
would say that the increment is probably in the realm of 2% or so. That would be my guess.
00:56:02
>> I would have guessed. I was my intuition would have told me. Let me ask you a
00:56:05
question to calibrate us all. Let's suppose I go back to the late 90s and I tell you I'm going to take Mariano
00:56:13
Rivera off the Yankees >> and I'm going to put in some good but not above average but not exceptional
00:56:20
closure. I would think that would have affected the Yankees winning by at least 5%. I I I agree.
00:56:27
>> Well, no. Chapman for short periods can be as good as Mariano was for 15
00:56:34
consecutive years. >> Somehow for the consistency that's what cost you the money. That's
00:56:40
what gives you that probability that the Ram >> he was that was that was good Chapman
00:56:44
era. Remember he was he >> 5%. >> I mean Audi you guys you guys got the
00:56:49
worst of Chapman. He's actually been a very consistent pitcher over most of his
00:56:52
career. Um >> I'm traumatized by Chapman. >> [laughter] >> He doesn't pitch as well when they know
00:56:58
what's coming, bro. >> Okay, so >> anyway, I could imagine something like
00:57:04
that. >> Come on, give us the answer. Yeah, >> this is an internal question, not the
00:57:07
right answer. It's what they thought. >> Let's say they thought it was 4%. Uh,
00:57:13
and it was from 21 to 25. >> Yeah. >> And I think it's >> You say 20 to 25. And I I think the
00:57:19
analogy here is is the what the Dodgers did this very recently which is basically took a team that already has
00:57:25
probably a pretty high comfort chance to win the World Series as high as it can already be um and added the top closer
00:57:32
in the game which was their team weakness which was their team weakness >> in the PL previous season and the
00:57:39
playoffs. So my actual now I don't remember the season in all its details but I would have suggested the same
00:57:45
percentage change in the win probability 20%. And uh but I had it down at much lower.
00:57:53
I would have guessed that the Cubs lower season at half that. Yeah. >> Well it was a very good team and I I to
00:57:59
me it's it I had I had zero calibration for any of these numbers and it's about
00:58:03
these front office decisions because they make this major trade decision. They already got a strong team. The
00:58:08
question is when you've got a strong team, is that the time to kind of push in your chips a little further to
00:58:12
increase the chance of actually winning the championship? Yes. >> But if you do that, what are you
00:58:16
actually doing? You're only moving at 4%. It's like, wow, that that the big
00:58:19
move to really capitalize on the momentum is to move it from 21 to 25. >> Wow.
00:58:25
>> And that's about right. >> Paid off. In this case, it paid off. All
00:58:27
right. Good fun, guys. Why don't we wrap it there then? We will come back and do
00:58:31
another show next week. Oh, we're moving into the 23rd. Are we going to do a show
00:58:35
on the 23rd? That's an open question. We will revisit that offline and come back.
00:58:39
We'll probably do something next week in some form, but we're nearing the end of
00:58:42
the year, which is stunning. Um, thanks for the whole team here. On behalf of Shane Jensen, on behalf of Audi Wer, on
00:58:49
behalf of Eric Bradlo, many thanks to Dion Simpkins, to Dion Patel, to Marissa Raina, to the whole team who supports
00:58:56
us. We appreciate it. And to you guys for listening, come back and join us next time. Between now and then, enjoy
00:59:01
your sports.