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I'm politically very interested in
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what's happening and I used to read the
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fivethirtyeight blog that was done by
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nate silver he advertised for the good
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judgment project
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I was very steady I I answered as many
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questions as I could I was consistent I
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updated I didn't let anything get
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forgotten and I approached it like I was
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taking a test at school come in and
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maybe I didn't even study so but hey
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it's it's it's not an essay test so the
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choices are very clear its its its
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numbers and and dumb I would read the
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question carefully and analyze whether
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whether this would hinge on it on a
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single factor or many factors if it was
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something that I had a clear gut feeling
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right off the bat then I would decide
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how much to back off from that extreme
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and if it was something where I was
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really undecided at the 50 50 mark I
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would force myself to a choice because
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50 50 is is it is never quite the right
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answer one of my hobbies is oil painting
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so and I and also when I've been taking
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the test they tell me I'm visuospatial
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so I I think that may have made a
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difference getting the big picture and
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knowing when to zoom in to the details
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backing off and then zooming in and not
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getting distracted by the wrong details
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so I've learned in painting that you
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have a big canvas you know you bake
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broad strokes but somehow sometimes just
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the tiny nuance here are there changes
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the way the whole painting looks and I
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think that's true in world events too
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and why you need a lot of different
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perspectives so that I love my news
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sources I have my favorite ones but when
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you get a variety and when you hear
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feedback from other forecasters it
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really helps
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I think that maybe the big thing is just
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to be aware of what you know what you
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can be certain of and what you're not
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sure of to know the difference between
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subjective and objective knowledge what
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things can be measured and what things
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are a matter of opinion look at history
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look at patterns look at base rates and
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then figure out whether your
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circumstance is similar or different I
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mean what's what was interesting for me
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is that most of the things I was
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forecasting on I knew nothing about
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going in finance questions for instance
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I I never pay attention to finance but
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when you're forecasting on world
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currencies you can always find graphs
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historical charts and I look at them and
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I see the patterns and I say why is it
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different now you know are we operating
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between the same extremes or will it be
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new and usually I've gone with stay with
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that stay with the trends so I didn't
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let myself get intimidated by any
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questions and I tried everything and his
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bill mentioned some of the things where
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I well actually was most hesitant on
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topics that I might have knowledge on
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say on Ebola because suddenly I do know
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i'm actually more self-conscious about
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things where I might miss something that
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I should know
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I think the tournament was great you
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need to practice so you need to have a
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lot of questions you need to have
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feedback you need to know where you're
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good and where you're messing up if you
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have a team if you have other people
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that you're in tournament either in
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competition or in collaboration either
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way you listen to them you get feedback
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and you will you will improve
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I use different words when I talk to
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myself now I've always been very
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analytic but now I I start talking those
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percentages to myself and and that's
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different
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I thought of the tournament like the
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there's a scene in the movie princess
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bride where the man in black is facing
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off against the the hyper confident
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vizzini and they propose a deadly
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drinking game and the line is you know
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that we shall see who is right and who
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is dead when we do forecasting
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tournaments the timelines are always
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very precise and many times in a season
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well you will be right or you will be
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dead so I kind of enjoy that analogy
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there were two big Ebola questions this
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year one was on whether a single case of
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Ebola would make it to the European
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Union and another question about whether
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the World Health Organization would
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declare Ebola contained within the
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countries that were most stricken that
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being Guinea Sierra Leone and Liberia
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those questions were entirely different
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even though they both dealt with Ebola
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what mattered was different for for
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transmission outside Africa and into the
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EU you were looking at healthcare
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workers and and plane routes how many
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people were going in and out and you
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need just a single case to set it up
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you
