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I think
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who can look at things a lot of
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different ways and I'm not the most
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adept at it among the forecasters but
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that's definitely my type so I was a
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good fit but I was also driven because
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I'm acutely aware of the trouble the
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world is in and I think the as much as
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they have a dark side us organizations
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like I ARPA and the intelligence
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community in general that need all the
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help they can get we are basically the
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good guys and so so there's plenty of
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you know driving force behind my
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interest
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it's painfully clear that the more the
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wiser and more thoughtful and rational
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you are the better you're going to do
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and so I'm afraid you know that this
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kind of the same people who would do
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better a lot of different things that
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require mental effort are the ones that
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rise to the top and forecasting I think
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what's special about forecasting is that
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if you're a really natural researcher
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that can get you quite far and I just
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completely admire and am grateful to
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those of us who are so good at it and
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who have you know far-flung connections
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to decision centers in the world it's
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i'm sort of a free rider in that way so
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there are two things that are really
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important and so I come from one side of
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that I'm a person who was a natural for
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computer programming for example but not
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a natural for writing or researching
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easy-to-follow tip is do it every day
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and every question that you're
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forecasting have a look every day to see
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if anything has changed you when things
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do change it significantly tends to come
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as a surprise and if you missed that day
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well you blew that forecast for that day
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the my approach is to try to think
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through causal mechanisms and and try to
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think of all the influential factors
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that I can think of and and try to
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visualize scenarios and and balance
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probabilities among scenarios things
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like that this is a little different
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than what I think most of us are led to
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do by the training we've had which is
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it's not that the training doesn't cover
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probability and that's critical but it's
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to look at the categories of the
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questions we're forecasting and try to
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find parallels in the past and look for
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rates of occurrence and try to use those
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rates I I think that's helpful as a
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starting place but it's not going to get
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you a very good score if that's all you
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do and I think the difference between
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you know sort of phoning it in and and
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getting a good score is understanding
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the situation as well as you possibly
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can and and that's the what phil has
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Phil tetlock has called the inside view
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as opposed to the outside view he
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emphasizes the people neglect the
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outside view but i think it's the inside
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view that that really matters to get you
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exceptional forecast that that actually
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could add could give real value
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anyway that's the inside view
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become comfortable with researching
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problems have a great interest in what
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you're forecasting don't hesitate to dig
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right in two you know study something
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new just get into it don't don't neglect
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if you have any bent at all for
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statistics and probability bring it into
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play you know but that's kind of obvious
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anyone who has that choice I guess
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actually that the this might come up in
00:05:29
your last question I didn't forget but
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part of the muscle you want is the
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muscle you want to strengthen
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intuitively is the muscle for balancing
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scenarios against each other and sort of
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averaging out probabilities intuitively
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waiting them properly things like that
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balancing things against each other
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intuitively that are things that are
00:05:56
pointing in opposite directions this is
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this is something to get better at and
00:06:01
feel easier about by practicing
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it's been huge and for first off you get
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exposed to a lot of wonderful people
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whom you tend to maintain some degree of
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contact with I've had a couple of of my
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teammates visit me at my house one who's
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from South Africa the other ones from
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Spain it's true they were on washington
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for other reasons but that's an example
00:06:37
and I I'm glad to stay in touch with a
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lot of the four can factor there have
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been others as well from the DC area
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anyways I'm glad to stay in touch with
00:06:50
these new friends that's that's see
00:06:54
that's a big thing and just as big is
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there's nothing like reality focusing on
00:07:03
reality and how it works out and you
00:07:05
tried to see the future and maybe it
00:07:09
worked and maybe it didn't end you you
00:07:13
sort of mentally record it's there's
00:07:15
feedback going on that's it's extremely
00:07:18
good feedback for turning you into a
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more rational person it's it makes you a
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more balanced person a more rational
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person easier to live with perhaps I
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don't know but it's all good it's been
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very rewarding and this doesn't mean
00:07:40
that the forecaster shouldn't also be
00:07:42
rewarded in other ways but this myself
00:07:45
is rewarding and I'm and I'm sure that
00:07:48
the others feel much much the same
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you
