00:00:00
Jisung Park: So the reason why the so-called
hidden costs of climate change
00:00:04
are so important are in part
because they're often subtle and
00:00:07
hard to notice. But the
data increasingly suggests that
00:00:11
they're quite pervasive. So
whether that's things like how
00:00:14
temperature affects worker
productivity, or safety and
00:00:17
health on the job, or even
something like cognitive
00:00:19
performance at work or in
school, there's increasingly
00:00:24
evidence to suggest that even a
so-called non-catastrophic
00:00:27
warming scenario, even a little
bit of warming, can adversely
00:00:31
affect the economic machinery of
our day to day lives in
00:00:35
important ways.
00:00:36
Dan Loney: Welcome to the Ripple Effect,
the podcast that takes you on a
00:00:40
journey through the minds of
Wharton faculty. I'm your host,
00:00:43
Dan Loney. And in each episode,
we'll be diving deep into the
00:00:46
inspiration behind the
groundbreaking research that
00:00:49
Wharton professors have
conducted, and exploring how
00:00:52
their findings resonate with the world today.
Dan Loney: Well, the focus on
00:00:56
climate change has many people
looking at the impacts of global
00:00:59
warming. And in many instances,
the costs can be somewhat
00:01:04
hidden, but can be very
important nonetheless. Many of
00:01:07
these are everyday implications.
Pleasure to be joined right now
00:01:12
by Dr. Jisung Park, who is an
Associate Professor in the
00:01:15
School of Social Policy and
Practice here at the University
00:01:18
of Pennsylvania. Jisung is also
author of the book, <i>Slow Burn:</i>
00:01:23
<i>The Hidden Costs of a Warming
World.</i> Jisung, great to have you
00:01:26
with us today. - Dan,
00:01:28
it's great to be here. And I hope
to be associate one day, I'm
00:01:31
still an assistant professor,
but thank you for that vote of
00:01:33
confidence.
00:01:34
- My apologies. I apologize for
that. And I guess it is that
00:01:39
component of everyday cause that
you focus on in the book that is
00:01:44
very important to this overall
kind of viewing of where we are
00:01:48
thinking about
global warming.
00:01:52
- That's right, Dan. And if I
could just take a quick step
00:01:54
back. You know, a primary
motivation behind a lot of my
00:01:58
research, and certainly the book
has been to help decision makers
00:02:02
and the public at large develop,
you know, a better familiarity
00:02:07
with these, what you're calling
everyday costs of climate
00:02:10
change. And I think to
understand why that's important,
00:02:13
it helps to take a step
back, to think about the
00:02:16
historical context, right?
Historically, I think many of
00:02:19
our viewers, your viewers are
used to thinking about climate
00:02:22
change, if they were thinking
about climate change at all, as
00:02:24
sort of a planetary catastrophe
insurance, right? Like, you've
00:02:28
heard terms such as
uninhabitable Earth, extinction,
00:02:32
rebellion, right? It's not
uncommon for us to think about
00:02:36
climate change in terms of the
broader framing, as sort of we
00:02:40
succeed and we prevent, you
know, planetary collapse. Or
00:02:44
we don't, and we're just
completely doomed. And I think,
00:02:48
you know, it's important,
increasingly, as more and more
00:02:51
of the public, and more and more
business leaders and decision
00:02:55
makers grapple with this issue,
as, you know, not just a
00:02:59
tangential issue, but
potentially a core issue to our
00:03:01
decision making, to really
become more familiar with, okay,
00:03:05
what are the -- what does the data
say about the so-called non-
00:03:09
catastrophic consequences of
climate change? And that isn't
00:03:12
because, you know, the framing
of acting on climate change as a
00:03:16
form of catastrophe insurance is
incorrect. I think there's a lot
00:03:19
of evidence to suggest that, to a
first order, that's probably the
00:03:22
right framework to use. But just
from a practical perspective, as
00:03:28
we think about how to sustain
our, you know, engagement with
00:03:32
and political will to move
forward, in terms of
00:03:34
decarbonisation, which, you
know, is -- it's much more of a
00:03:38
dial than a switch than I think
most people tend to talk about
00:03:42
it or think about it as. And as
we think about, you know,
00:03:45
adaptation, right? What kinds of
practical decisions need to be
00:03:48
made, whether you're a mayor or
a principal or a business leader,
00:03:53
to help adapt your
organization's operations to
00:03:57
the effects of climate change
that are already happening. I
00:04:00
think that's sort of the
motivation behind really trying
00:04:02
to focus on the data-driven
implications of the everyday
00:04:05
costs.
00:04:06
- So give us an example of this.
Because from what you just said,
00:04:09
you were saying a mayor or a
principal. And those are
00:04:12
obviously two important jobs,
but in many cases, they're very
00:04:15
different jobs. And so it feels
like there's a kind of a wide
00:04:19
range of areas we can look at
when you're talking about the
00:04:23
impact of these costs associated
with climate change.
00:04:26
- Absolutely, Dan. And I have to
say, you know, as someone who
00:04:30
has been working in this area
for several years, actually over
00:04:34
a decade now, I continue to be
amazed at what the data tells us,
00:04:38
or the scope of ways in which
climate change may already be
00:04:42
affecting us. So I'm thinking
about research that finds -- let's
00:04:47
start at the top. So let's -- you
know, we now know that depending
00:04:51
on the country you live in,
depending on the industry,
00:04:54
extreme temperature and extreme
rainfall can have very
00:04:58
significant consequences
for manufacturing productivity,
00:05:01
construction productivity. We
also know that it can affect
00:05:06
health in a variety of ways.
Mortality responses to extreme
00:05:09
heat are among the biggest
drivers of climate-related
00:05:15
health disruptions. But it's not
just death. You know, it's other
00:05:18
dimensions of suffering.
Hospitalizations go up when the
00:05:21
temperature is hotter. You know,
we know from some of my own
00:05:25
research with co-authors that
workers in certain occupations
00:05:29
and industries, their propensity
to be hurt on the job goes up on
00:05:33
hotter days. Student learning is
incidentally also affected,
00:05:38
albeit in highly varied, and in
many cases, very subtle ways by
00:05:42
the temperature environment in
which learning happens, I mean,
00:05:45
learning is kind of hard enough
as it is. But if you add to the
00:05:48
mix, you know, especially in
settings where you don't have,
00:05:51
you know, complete cooling
infrastructure, or where extreme
00:05:55
heat is very frequent. You know,
we find that there is a subtle
00:05:59
but measurable effect on both
cognitive performance in the
00:06:03
short run and the accumulation
of human capital, right? Which,
00:06:06
as we know, is so important to
economic flourishing, both
00:06:10
individually, and sort of in a
macro sense in the long run. So,
00:06:14
you know, heat can affect
learning. There are also ways in
00:06:18
which, you know, the climate in
which we live, whether it's, you
00:06:23
know, temperature changes, or
air pollution from wildfire
00:06:27
smoke, can affect your mood, you
know? Can affect -- it can
00:06:31
actually affect how much
profanity you see on your
00:06:36
Twitter feed, you know? So there
are all these many sort of
00:06:40
subtle ways in which a changing
climate changes our quality of
00:06:44
life. That's why I say, you
know, a mayor or principal or
00:06:50
leader of a Fortune 500 company.
They're all ways in which your
00:06:54
operations might be affected. I
can't tell you which ways they
00:06:57
are, but I can tell you that
there's a large menu of
00:07:01
studies that document clear
links between changes in
00:07:05
weather patterns, changes in
climate variables, and these
00:07:09
kinds of economically relevant
outcomes.
00:07:12
- So then I would also throw out
the idea that there are probably
00:07:19
events that occur out there in
our society that end up having
00:07:24
a downstream impact on climate.
And I'll just throw one out.
00:07:28
Recently, we saw in Baltimore,
the Francis Scott Key Bridge,
00:07:32
the boat hits the the base
of the structure, knocks the
00:07:37
bridge down. And obviously, it
has forced a large level of
00:07:41
change in that part of the
United States in terms of
00:07:45
traffic, you know, use, the level --
I mean, there are probably --
00:07:50
there are some impacts from
climate because you have -- you
00:07:54
don't have this bridge available
now for the next several
00:07:57
years. - You mean, in terms of the
knock on effects on emissions from that?
00:08:01
- Correct, correct. - Absolutely. I
mean, transportation is a large --
00:08:06
obviously a very large source of
our emissions, and anything that
00:08:10
can affect transportation
patterns in the short or long
00:08:12
run, that'll have effects on
emissions. Where I thought you
00:08:16
were going with that, Dan, is
also that there are hidden
00:08:17
effects from climatological
disasters that can affect things
00:08:21
like bridges, on not only the
infrastructure, but also on, you
00:08:25
know, less visible aspects of
the economy. - Well, and
00:08:29
that too, because I think
there's a larger discussion
00:08:32
going on right now about
infrastructure and making sure
00:08:35
that we have, you know,
structurally sound bridges,
00:08:38
roads, etcetera, as
00:08:40
well. - 100 percent, right. And I'm
not an engineer, but my cursory
00:08:44
read of the engineering reports
is that America's infrastructure
00:08:47
has many -- let's say, the grades
are, you know, great. But that's
00:08:54
in a stable climate. If you add,
you know, a changing climate to
00:08:57
the mix, you know, chances are
that the -- the need, the
00:09:02
urgency of revamping the
infrastructure may be may be
00:09:05
greater, especially given what
we know about, you know, how
00:09:09
climate change will affect
things like the propensity of
00:09:12
extreme rainfall and flooding,
for instance.
00:09:15
- Well, and the other thing is we
talk about these issues a
00:09:19
lot in the scope of here in
the United States, but this is a
00:09:23
larger conversation as well,
where these types of events and
00:09:28
impacts are occurring all around
the world, maybe with different
00:09:33
level of impact, but they're
still happening. - 100 percent,
00:09:36
right. And I have to say, you
know, the US has obviously been
00:09:40
a focus of much of our attention
because that's where we live. And
00:09:43
in some cases, from a researcher
standpoint, we're guilty of, you
00:09:47
know, looking for our keys under
the lamppost, in the sense that
00:09:51
many cases -- to the extent that
sometimes your research is
00:09:55
guided by data availability. You
know, places like the US have
00:10:00
better data than many other
developing countries. But that
00:10:02
shouldn't take away
from the very obvious point
00:10:08
that, you know, these effects
from climate change that are
00:10:12
documented are, of course, not
only happening in developed
00:10:16
economies like the US, but if
anything, you would -- one
00:10:19
might expect the magnitude of
the effects to be larger,
00:10:23
depending on the hazard, of course.
But in developing countries,
00:10:26
just to give you sort of one
heuristic that I like to think
00:10:32
about, is, you know, for a given
level of warming, how many more
00:10:35
potentially damagingly hot
days are we talking about from
00:10:38
climate change? And, you know,
there are parts of the US where,
00:10:42
over the next two to three
decades, we're expected to see,
00:10:45
say, you know, a dozen or two
dozen more days every summer
00:10:49
above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, just
to pick a threshold. That number
00:10:53
in a place like Thailand or
Brazil can be over 100
00:10:58
additional days per year above
90 degrees Fahrenheit, and that's
00:11:01
already on a very warm base, so
to speak. And so yeah,
00:11:05
absolutely, there is a sense in
which we can lose sight of the
00:11:10
international dimension of
climate damages, and also the
00:11:14
potential inequality in damages
across countries, given the
00:11:18
differences in both the amount
of warming and the underlying
00:11:23
sort of infrastructure and
economic composition. - So
00:11:27
you just use the word
inequality. And that is
00:11:29
obviously another area that's
very important. It's very
00:11:32
much a talking point here in the
US on a variety of different
00:11:34
fronts. How much do you see
these impacts having an impact
00:11:41
on the level of inequality that
we see here in the United States
00:11:46
and other cultures around the
globe?
00:11:49
- Yeah, that's a great question,
Dan. I mean, there are many ways
00:11:53
one can think about inequality.
I tend to like to frame it as,
00:11:57
you know, how -- what are the
differences in an individual's
00:12:02
ability to achieve a flourishing --
you know, a flourishing life?
00:12:05
And there are many inputs to
that, but you can imagine that,
00:12:09
you know, some probably
necessary inputs may include
00:12:12
things like health, you know,
the ability to secure a
00:12:16
financial livelihood, you know,
safety of your -- basic safety of
00:12:21
your environment. And to the
extent that, you know, research
00:12:27
now increasingly indicates that
all of those three dimensions
00:12:31
that I just mentioned, again,
which are not exhaustive, are
00:12:35
adversely affected by climate
hazards. You know, and to the
00:12:40
extent that we know, both
internationally and
00:12:45
interpersonally, within
countries, be that developed or
00:12:48
developing, we've seen
increasing wage inequality,
00:12:52
income inequality, and in many
cases, health inequality. That's
00:12:57
the backdrop upon which these
impacts of climate change are
00:13:01
occurring. And so one can
imagine that if things keep
00:13:06
going the way they're going in
the sort of social and policy
00:13:11
systems that we have been living
through, you can imagine that
00:13:17
climate change has a
likelihood of increasing those
00:13:21
inequalities, whether that's in,
you know, livelihoods or health
00:13:25
or what have you.
00:13:26
- What do you think then needs to
be looked at now to improve
00:13:32
things? And I guess one of the
things you've also talked about
00:13:35
is even maybe a path towards
more aggressive cutting, looking,
00:13:40
when you're talking about
emissions.
00:13:42
- Yeah, let me get to the
emissions cutting in a second.
00:13:45
Let me -- I would like to actually
say first that one of the
00:13:50
things that can and should be
done is a shift in the
00:13:53
narrative. I really do believe,
Dan, that, you know, the --
00:13:58
the way we, as individuals and
as a broader public, think about
00:14:02
and talk about climate change
and acting on climate change,
00:14:05
climate policy, is really
important. And getting back to
00:14:08
the earlier point at the outset
about, you know, framing
00:14:12
climate change as less of a
binary, black-white, on-off, and
00:14:16
more of a sort of sliding scale.
I think that will be important
00:14:21
as we move forward in making
collective and individual
00:14:25
decisions about what we should
do about it, how much we should
00:14:29
be investing to do something
about it. Just to give us a
00:14:32
concrete example, again, you
know, I think there's a great
00:14:36
deal of support now for the
inevitability of the transition
00:14:40
away from fossil fuels, right?
You hear about the clean energy
00:14:43
transition, the green transition,
etcetera. But if you look under
00:14:46
the hood, there's less consensus
about how quickly, at what cost,
00:14:51
right? Privileging which
industries over others. And so
00:14:55
those conversations take as
essential factual inputs, among
00:15:01
other things, the damages from
a warmer planet and not just the
00:15:06
binary of, hey, you know, five
degrees of warming and we're all
00:15:10
doomed, versus, you know, pre-
industrial. It's every part
00:15:15
every -- every degree on that
spectrum represents either
00:15:20
damages we avoid, so benefits
from acting, or costs of
00:15:24
acting and right -- and reducing
those emissions. So the more, I
00:15:28
think, as a public, we can
understand that climate change,
00:15:32
as with many policy issues, has
a bunch of gray area that we
00:15:35
need to operate in, and that
increasingly there is the data
00:15:40
to support a more quantitatively
nuanced understanding of the
00:15:43
gray area, I think we can have -- I
think that would allow us to
00:15:47
have a more sustained -- a more
constructive and sustained
00:15:53
debate about how much we should
be reducing emissions, how
00:15:57
aggressively how quickly, etcetera.
Just one data point I
00:16:02
will -- I will note, and I
mention in the book, in terms of
00:16:06
the ideal stringency, or
aggressivity of emissions cuts.
00:16:10
So your listeners may be
familiar with the concept called
00:16:14
the social cost of carbon. If
they are not, the basic idea,
00:16:17
right, is it represents the
discounted present value of the
00:16:23
total damages to society that
are set in motion by us emitting
00:16:31
an additional ton of CO2 today.
That number -- of course, there's
00:16:35
a lot that goes into that
number, both theoretical and
00:16:38
empirical. But that number, in
some sense, represents, right, the
00:16:41
severity of the climate change
problem. That number, at least
00:16:46
according to recent EPA updates
that incorporate a lot of the
00:16:49
studies that I have mentioned,
although not all of them, is
00:16:53
around -- is somewhere in the
ballpark of $190 per ton CO2.
00:16:59
You know, less than a decade
ago, that number was somewhere
00:17:02
in the ballpark of $50 per
ton, five zero, CO2. And so
00:17:06
just to give you a sense of how
potentially serious the costs of
00:17:10
climate change are. Another way
to think about that is with some
00:17:13
assumptions, right? It's as if
we're putting in motion every
00:17:16
year, globally, given the amount
of emissions we emit on an
00:17:21
average basis, as a world, we're
setting in motion many
00:17:25
trillions, several trillions of
dollars worth of, right,
00:17:29
discounted future damages
because of our emissions. So
00:17:32
that should give us a -- at least
some sense of how much we should
00:17:35
as a society be willing to pay
to cut those emissions, if you
00:17:38
believe in benefit cost
analysis, which I do, at least as
00:17:42
one input to decision making. So
that's a long-winded way of
00:17:44
saying, you know, I think we -- I
think we can start with changing
00:17:49
the narrative a little bit on
how we think about climate
00:17:52
action. The other point, briefly,
that I'll mention is that, right,
00:17:56
almost irrespective of how
quickly we're able to reduce
00:17:59
emissions, there's going to be a
lot of adaptation that needs to
00:18:02
happen between now and a stable
climate, whenever that ends up
00:18:06
being. And I think that the more
we can familiarize ourselves
00:18:11
with the everyday cost, the
everyday impacts of a changing
00:18:15
climate, even in a so-called non-
catastrophic scenario, I think
00:18:19
the more nuanced our
interventions can be in helping
00:18:24
our organizations, our societies
adapt to the climate change that's
00:18:28
coming. Sorry for the long
response.
00:18:30
- No, but it's great, because
you've covered all the bases on
00:18:34
this. Jisung, great to have you
with us today. Thanks very much
00:18:37
for your time.
00:18:38
- Thank you, Dan.
00:18:39
It was a pleasure. - You got it. Dr.
Jisung Park, Assistant
00:18:42
Professor in the School of Social
Policy and Practice. - Hopefully not for long.
00:18:47
- Hopefully not for long. At the
University of Pennsylvania. The
00:18:50
book is titled <i>Slow Burn: The
Hidden Costs of a Warming World.</i>
00:18:54
It's available in bookstores and
online right now. - Thank you for
00:18:58
listening to the Ripple Effect.
We hope you found this episode
00:19:01
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00:19:04
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00:19:08
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