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What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner

October 24, 2023 / 22:10

This episode covers the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, its role in price stability and employment, and its relationship with Congress and regional banks. Guest Christina Skinner, an assistant professor at the Wharton School, discusses the Fed's responsibilities, particularly in light of recent inflation trends and economic shocks.

Skinner explains that the Federal Reserve's main job is to maintain economic stability and manage inflation, emphasizing that it does not directly interact with individuals but operates through the banking system. She highlights the impact of the Fed's interest rate decisions on everyday life, particularly regarding mortgages and loans.

The conversation touches on the Fed's response to inflation, including the challenges faced due to the term "transitory" and the need for human judgment in policy-making. Skinner also discusses the Fed's supervisory role over large financial institutions and how recent banking issues, like those involving Silicon Valley Bank, illustrate the conflict between its mandates.

Skinner further elaborates on the Fed's unique structure, which includes regional banks that operate under a public-private model, and the ongoing debates surrounding cryptocurrency regulation and the potential for a central bank digital currency.

Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the Federal Reserve's functions and its increasing scrutiny in today's economic climate.

TLDR

Christina Skinner explains the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and its impact on inflation and employment in today's economy.

Episode

22:10
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the FED has a dual mandate as part of its price stability so it has responsibility as Congress has drafted
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the Federal Reserve Act both for Price stability and maximum employment and that's interesting because most other
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central banks don't have this two-legged mandate where they have to look out for
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both price stability and unemployment welcome to the ripple effect the podcast that takes you on a
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journey through the minds of work and faculty I'm your host Dan Looney and in
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each episode we'll be diving deep into the inspiration behind the groundbreaking research that whon
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professors have conducted and exploring how their findings resonate with the world today well one of the things to
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look at as we continue with our series the economy and you is to get a better understanding of the Federal Reserve
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Bank the role that it's playing now but also what the central bank's role is
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supposed to be in general great to be joined by Christina Skinner who's an assistant professor of legal studies and
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business ethics here at the Wharton School hi Christina how are you today hi I'm doing great thanks so much for
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having me on the show I'm really looking forward to our conversation you know
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it's interesting because we talk about the FED it seems like almost on a daily
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basis right now because of everything that's going on with the economy and and
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the role that the FED is taking but for those that really don't follow it as
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closely what does the FED do basically on a daily basis I think this is such a great and important question you know in
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my own research I really strive toward the goal of having everyday people understand what is a central bank and
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what it does especially at this particular moment in time when we've had a surge of inflation and people sort of
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generally know that the FED has grown a larger footprint in the financial markets people are starting to pay
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attention and really get interested from a sort of you know everyday lay perspective what is the Fed doing and
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before I really answer your question directly I did want to just take a step back and make two things a little bit
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clear for our listeners and viewers which is I think so essential to having this big picture context about what is
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the Fed doing what does it mean for your everyday life so the first point is that
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the FED actually shouldn't be doing that much at all on an everyday basis really
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the fed's main job is to keep the economy and the financial system on an even Keel right so the Central Bank
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shouldn't be trying to micromanage the economy but the second Point here is also notable that the Fed doesn't have a
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direct relationship with people really at all so it doesn't lend directly to
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households ordinarily it doesn't have bank accounts for them the FED is really
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working through the banking system and the financial markets now with all that being said as you greatly suggest fed
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policy does of course ultimately touch people's everyday lives in some pretty
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profound ways and since we're just starting I'm just going to give you the
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two sort of most significant or big picture ways that fed policy touches our everyday lives now the first thing is
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that Congress gave the fed the job of pursuing price stability so that means minding watching out for inflation
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inflation is generally very bad for economies very bad for societies because it's reducing the purchasing power of
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money so it's undermining our wealth it's making people's real wages lower so
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that it's harder for them to pay for goods and services right because those wages aren't keeping up with an
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inflationary surge it's hard for businesses to plan so this really drags the economy down and this is the fed's
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main job so this means that when we see a surge of inflation above the fed's 2%
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Target it's going to do things like in the first instance raise interest rates
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to try and cool the economy down and of course when the Central Bank raises interest rates that really profoundly
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impacts people's lives and their cost of crit for things like mortgages and cars
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and credit cards the second thing to note in terms of how fed policy affects people's everyday lives is that the FED
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really takes its job seriously of stepping in during economic shocks to provide liquidity for the financial
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system however this really matters for everyday people because if the financial system freezes up this severely impacts
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the rest of the economy trickles down to households businesses so for example lots of companies use a form of
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short-term debt called commercial paper to finance their operational needs like payroll so if you've got money market
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funds that stop buying commercial paper because they're in distress well this
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means they're effectively ceasing to lend to those small medium large businesses and the FED doesn't want that
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to happen it doesn't want Banks to stop lending to people and businesses so it
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really focuses on making sure that credit can remain the lifeblood of the economy so in a nutshell fed doesn't do
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things directly for people but it works through banks and the financial system to try and keep price levels stable keep
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the financial system stable and that's how it helps us on an everyday basis but
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it it it sounds like though from what we've been going through the last few years that to degree it's also not
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exactly an exact science as well uh because the term transitory was used when inflation was first coming up uh a
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couple of years ago and as we've seen it really hasn't been transitory in fact
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it's been quite the challenge for the FED to try and bring uh inflation down
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over the last year and a half absolutely it would be nice if it were a science but like so much of public policy
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combating inflation thinking about inflation targeting it involves a healthy dose of human judgment and
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sometimes it requires just a lot of plain old common sense now interestingly transitory became almost a dirty word in
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the past few months because it was really the rationale that slowed the FED down in responding to inflation so the
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idea was that inflation would pass Us by would quickly dissipate because most of
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the inflationary surge that we were having was due to coid specific related things like supply chain bottlenecks
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spikes and energy pricing so on the basis of that rationale the fed and I will say all the other leading central
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banks as well the FED wasn't out here on a limb waited what is now consensus view
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too long to start raising interest rates and or slowing down the pace at which they were buying Bonds in their program
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of quantitative easing so because the Fed was used a set of macroeconomic models and forecasting that said
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inflation would basically go away on its own the FED waited too long but we now know that there are some demand side
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aspects to the inflation that we're seeing as well that largely have to do with a very rapid and significant
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increase in the money supply that came from fiscal stimulus in Congress and the FED tools can be used to do something
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about that demand side component of inflation so that component of monetary policy is really it is truly one of the
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key components that the FED really has to focus on uh on a day-to-day basis absolutely so you know I think when
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people tend to think about central banks they do generally think about monetary policy and they think about inflation
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now to dig in a little bit deeper give you a little bit more uh context and Nuance here the FED has a dual mandate
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as part of its price stability so it has responsibility as Congress has drafted the Federal Reserve Act both for Price
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stability and maximum employment and that's interesting because most other central banks don't have this two-legged
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mandate where they have to look out for both price stability and unemployment however the sort of course of history
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has taught us that we really can't have maximum employment if we don't have
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price stability so the FED tends to sort of think first about how it can keep inflation steady at that 2% Target and
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then sort of other ways that it can address the employment side of its mandate and So within this sort of
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umbrella of monetary policy the FED has a couple different tools I mentioned some of them already it thinks about
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setting interest rates right not just to deal with inflation but in the ordinary
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course of things the fed the Federal Open Market Committee more specifically will meet and decide what interest rate
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should be uh important to note here that sort of going back to my earlier remarks
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the FED isn't directly setting Market interest rates that people see when they're applying for a Mor a mortgage or
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a car loan but the FED does set the interest that it pays on Bank Reserves which then sort of influences the market
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rates and and tends to mirror that rate pretty closely the FED also does things like buy Bond it buys government
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securities treasuries in the open market and it usually does this now in the context of what I referred to earlier is
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quantitative easing so it buys a bunch of bonds to try and stimulate the economy if it needs to and lower an
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interest rates is no longer sufficient to juice the economy and it also does some other sort of more complicated and
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nuanced things so for example it will lend to Banks through the discount window in normal times it will lend to
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Banks and other kinds of financial institutions or companies in sort of an emergency context and now through
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something called the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility that's a
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mouthful right it will also effectively lend to other kinds of Institutions like
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money market funds in a way that mirrors lending to the discount l so this is pretty much all the stuff that the FED
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does under its monetary policy umbrella and it's really all geared toward that
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monetary policy mandate which is price stability which the FED has defined as inflation at an average of 2% and
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maximum employment but part of it at least what we have been talking about in recent months in regards to fed and the
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banking sector also I guess ties back into what we've seen uh with some of the
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issues within the banking sector with silic Valley Bank uh and the like in recent months as well absolutely so
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after the 2010 dodf Frank act this was a piece of post crisis legislation so in the in the
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dodf Frank Act Congress was essentially responding to the global financial crisis the FED gained much more
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supervisory and Regulatory authority over systemically important financial institutions so these are Financial
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holding companies than City group and also non-banks that the financial stability oversight Council might
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designate as systemically important so the point here is that the FED is now also a regulator and a supervisor for
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really large Financial holding companies it's a supervisor it's a bank regulator
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so this is a completely separate function that it has from its monetary policy mandate so the case of Silicon
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Valley Bank was really interesting and challenging for the FED because there in that incident in that ter well you saw
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the fed's two mandates its monetary policy mandate for Price stability conflicting with its responsibility to
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be a supervisor of the banking system and sort of maintain and procure Financial stability why is that well the
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rise in inflation required that the FED raise interest rates quite rapidly and quite quite steeply which is what in
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fact it had been doing for the past 18 months at the same time when you raise interest rates there's a famous saying
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you know when the FED raises rates someone's always going to you know when you see them on the break someone's
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going to go through the windshield we just don't know who and that's basically
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sort of referring to the fact that something's going to break in the financial system causing Financial
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instability so in initial you know raising interest rates was part of the reason why this interest rate risk
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materialized for Silicon Valley Bank in a way that they had improperly managed causing that bank's failure and some
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bumps in the rest of the banking system so you saw this clash between the FED wanting to maintain Financial stability
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and it really needing to ensure price stability so that's something new that
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the FED has to wrestle with since this 2010 piece of legislation that had basically said to the fed you know
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you're responsible for financial stability for making sure that the banking sector is stable but also we
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still need you to make sure we don't have inflation what about the relationship between the Federal Reserve
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and Congress in general that's a great question so you know central banks are
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supposed to be independent right we learned this lesson a couple of decades ago so Independence is really a nuanced
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thing when you're talking about a central bank because Independence doesn't mean not accountable so the FED
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has a tricky sometimes relationship between its boss which is Congress on the one hand and the executive branch so
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when we tend to refer to the central bank we say well it's independent from the executive branch it's not supposed
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to take instructions or pressure from the from the executive from the president who has short-term political
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goals and is that really supposed to take in political instruction from Congress ideally but at the same time
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Congress created the Federal Reserve and the FED is an agent of Congress and so the FED has to be accountable to
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Congress you know Congress exercises oversight over the FED but just like we don't want the executive branch giving
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the FED sort of political jobs to do sort of you know Finance the transition to a green economy Finance uh you know
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War uh you know wall on the border those are sort of partisan issues that we prefer to keep the Central Bank out of
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as a technocratic Economic Policy maker uh so his relationship with Congress is kind of a dance right has to answer to
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Congress and Congress could technically ask it to do any range of things but historically right Congress has sort of
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said okay these are your responsibilities price stability and employment and you know we talked about
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the do Frank Financial stability and so the FED has to sort of stay in that lane
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that Congress has set for it while trying to navigate inevitably the political issues that get put on its
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plate from time to time then let me also ask you then that you also have the relationship between Congress and the
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Federal Reserve Bank but what about the the the relationship between the Federal
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Reserve Bank and the regional federal reserves as well because there are a dozen of them located in different spots
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around the country we have one here in Philadelphia how does that relationship kind of parse out uh in terms of dealing
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with a lot of these issues that's a really great question and I think it's
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an aspect of our Central Bank that a lot of people Overlook and yet it's incredibly distinctive so as you say our
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Central Bank has this Federalist structure which really sort of mirrors the Federalist structure of our country
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where we've got the board in Washington which was always intended to be a more
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uh politically responsive organization right so the FED board is a government agency it sets policy it's the you know
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J Powell the chair of the FED board is one testifying before Congress and then there are these 12 Regional reserve
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banks that have this sort of interesting public Private Structure so the reserve
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banks as you say are located in in regions all across the country and they themselves have a board of directors
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which is appointed by their private member banks so the banks in the region of the Reserve Bank are members of that
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reserving they appoint the board of directors so in that sense it has a a private element at the same time it's
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carrying out these public policy goals right so it is supposed to be responsive to the Board of Governors the Board of
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Governors you know the way to think about it the Board of Governors is set in the policy but those reserve banks
00:15:47
are operationalizing policy so you've got the New York fed doing open market
00:15:51
operations pursuant to instructions from the Board of Governors and you have the
00:15:57
regional Reserve Bank actually on the ground supervising banks in their District on a day-to-day basis even
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though the Board of Governors is setting the overarching supervisory policy but this sort of Quirk of history that the
00:16:11
reserve banks are public policy organizations but have this private sort of Board of Governors comes up from time
00:16:19
to time and people wonder whether we should revisit that structure I'm actually not one of those people but
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it's worth noting that the debate is out there because we are one of the only
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central banks that has this unique public private element and for example it became sort of live issue again in
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the context of Silicon Valley Bank when people start asking questions about you know what was the Regional Federal
00:16:42
Reserve Bank in San Francisco doing and not pushing harder on SVP to deal with some of its unrealized losses some of
00:16:50
its unhedged interest rate risks so an interesting Quirk of our Central Bank which you know I tend to think makes it
00:16:56
stronger because you have this diverse set of viewpoints coming in from all over the country feeding into the Board
00:17:02
of Governors but it's it's certainly a a unique characteristic I guess the last
00:17:06
point I should mention about our structure is that the Federal Open Market Committee which is the organ of
00:17:12
the FED that is setting interest rate policy draws on the expertise and the knowledge of the regional Reserve Bank
00:17:20
presidents and several of the Reserve Bank presidents will sit on the fomc on a rotating
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basis so fed also has to adjust to uh the changes that go on within the structure of our economy uh our
00:17:35
currencies Etc uh one of which I guess is unique element that's going on right
00:17:40
now in and around cryptocurrency and how our economy our culture is going to kind
00:17:47
of bring that into the mix as we move longer term it has already but it's an
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element that the FED probably has to consider as well absolutely so like so many Hot Topics in our economy right now
00:18:00
the FED hasn't escaped this one either and it's sort of you know fret and
00:18:04
Center in the in the cryptocurrency I'll call it debate because it really is a
00:18:07
debate right now both in terms of how to regulate and construct a legal framework
00:18:12
around various forms of cryptocurrencies and crypto assets and also specifically
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what the Central Bank should do in its corner of the regulatory universe and I will say in the crypto World there are
00:18:24
two issues in particular that are live issues for the fed the first is what to do about stable coins and I don't mean
00:18:32
whether to classify them as a security or a commodity that's a separate debate
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the debate that's relevant for the central bank is whether it should provide access to Accounts at those
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regional federal reserve banks for stable coin issuers and the reason why this matters is because from a payments
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system perspective no payment is final until it's settled in Central Bank Reserves and central bank money so
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settlement has to happen on The Ledger of the central bank before any payment transaction is final so if you aren't a
00:19:04
bank or another financial institution that has an account at the Federal Reserve then you can't sort of engage in
00:19:12
payment settlement finality yourself you have to go through another intermediary
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so that's necessarily an inefficiency for a stable coin issuer so there's a
00:19:20
live debate right now about whether the FED should open up access to these stable coin issuers bring them into the
00:19:26
fold alongside the banks let them engag in in in payments work and the question is which the FED is I think still trying
00:19:33
to figure out is doing so going to be net beneficial for the economy is it going to increase Financial stability
00:19:41
risk or not is it going to increase payments efficiency or not and how to weigh those costs and benefits setting
00:19:48
stable coin to one side the other sort of crypto issue that's lied for the FED
00:19:52
right now is one that's relevant for all almost all central banks around the
00:19:56
world right now which is is whether the FED should create something called a central bank digital currency referred
00:20:02
to as a cbdc now a cbdc would be essentially similar to a stab coin except it would be a sovereign form of
00:20:12
money you can think of it in very simplified terms like digital cash although for reasons that are probably
00:20:18
too nuanced to get into right now it's not completely similar to digital cast
00:20:22
but the idea is you know should the state the government create something that is a digital dollar and that's not
00:20:30
the fed's decision to make that's congress's decision to make but the FED
00:20:34
of course can't avoid thinking about the issue having an opinion on the issue you
00:20:40
know being aware of the fact that other central banks around the world are pretty actively advanced in developing a
00:20:44
central bank digital currency so that'll certainly be a issue and a debate to
00:20:49
look out for in the coming years you know it is interesting because we are at a time and I want to thank you for
00:20:55
coming on and talking today it seems like the Federal Reserve gets more attention now than ever before maybe
00:21:01
it's a byproduct of the media World we're we're living in right now but it
00:21:04
seemingly every move that the FED makes these days is scrutinized even more so than maybe it has been ever
00:21:12
before I think that's you know absolutely the case for a number of factors as you suggest right it's the
00:21:18
fact that we're having inflation for the first time since the 70s it's the fact
00:21:22
that the FED is an incredibly effective and Powerful institution so people will naturally look to it to do things that
00:21:29
they want governments to do whether or not that is necessarily within the fed's
00:21:34
statutory mandate and because our financial system is really large and complex and the FED has become a
00:21:40
counterparty to so many institutions so again thank you for the opportunity to to speak to the audience a little bit
00:21:46
more about what the the FED does and I hope we can do a part two sometime soon absolutely Christina schinner assistant
00:21:53
professor of legal studies and business ethics here at the Wharton School thank you for listening to the ripple effect
00:21:59
we hope you found this episode informative and engaging don't forget to subscribe and leave us a review so that
00:22:04
we can continue to bring you the best Insight from the warten school

Episode Highlights

  • Understanding the Federal Reserve
    The FED has a dual mandate for price stability and maximum employment, unlike most central banks.
    “Most other central banks don't have this two-legged mandate.”
    @ 00m 14s
    October 24, 2023
  • The Impact of Inflation
    Inflation reduces purchasing power and complicates economic planning, affecting everyday lives.
    “Inflation is generally very bad for economies.”
    @ 03m 13s
    October 24, 2023
  • The FED's Role in Financial Stability
    The FED steps in during economic shocks to maintain liquidity in the financial system.
    “If the financial system freezes up, it severely impacts the economy.”
    @ 04m 07s
    October 24, 2023
  • The FED's Regulatory Authority
    Post-2010, the FED gained more supervisory authority over significant financial institutions.
    “The FED is now also a regulator and a supervisor for large financial holding companies.”
    @ 10m 17s
    October 24, 2023
  • The FED and Cryptocurrency
    The FED faces challenges in regulating cryptocurrencies and stable coins in the current economy.
    “The FED hasn't escaped the cryptocurrency debate.”
    @ 18m 00s
    October 24, 2023
  • The Debate on Digital Currency
    Should the FED create a central bank digital currency? This question is at the forefront of financial discussions.
    “Should the government create something that is a digital dollar?”
    @ 20m 26s
    October 24, 2023
  • Increased Scrutiny of the FED
    The FED's actions are under more scrutiny than ever, especially during inflationary times.
    “The Federal Reserve gets more attention now than ever before.”
    @ 20m 58s
    October 24, 2023

Episode Quotes

  • The FED's main job is to keep the economy on an even keel.
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner
  • Inflation is generally very bad for economies and societies.
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner
  • Combating inflation involves a healthy dose of human judgment.
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner
  • Transitory became almost a dirty word in the past few months.
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner
  • Should the government create something that is a digital dollar?
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner
  • The Federal Reserve gets more attention now than ever before.
    What Role Should the Federal Reserve Play in the Economy? with Wharton's Christina Parajon Skinner

Key Moments

  • Dual Mandate00:14
  • Inflation Impact03:13
  • Financial Stability04:07
  • Regulatory Authority10:17
  • Cryptocurrency Debate18:00
  • Digital Dollar Debate20:26
  • Increased FED Scrutiny20:58

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