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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball.
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Welcome to a full hour of sports
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analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting
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with three quarters of the co-hosts
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here. Two of my three co-hosts. Shane
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Jensen is in here and Eric Bradlo is
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also Shane from home and Eric from a
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couple floors above me. Eric and I are
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both in the office at the moment. Audi
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Winer is out doing Audi things which I
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believe are classroom related right now.
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He's down doing his job teaching Wharton
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students. He'll be back. Some
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combination of us are here almost every
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week of the year. Have been for more
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than 11 years now. Delighted to be here.
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We're recording on a Tuesday afternoon
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as we usually do. I believe we're right
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in that kind of narrow window of what
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Matty Dats used to call the sports
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equinox. All sports. Was it last night?
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Was it tonight? There's some day here
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where all four major North American
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sports are playing and there's only like
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one or two days where this is true. So,
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>> plus two baseball games for the price of
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one.
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>> Exactly. Well, for those of us who
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decided to spend our evening watching it
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perhaps, but we're going to leave a
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little baseball to the second half. God
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knows we can spend the whole half or
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even the whole show talking baseball
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with all that's going on with the
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Dodgers and Otani and that world. In the
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first half, we're going to do our usual
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thing, which is bring a guest in here.
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And it's been a little while. It's been
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a couple weeks anyway since we've talked
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football on the show. Um, so we grabbed
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one of our favorites to talk football
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with. We're going to talk college
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football this half hour with Bill
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Connley. Bill C is with us in the house
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from Columbia, Missouri. Bill Connley,
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good to see you. Thank you, man.
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>> Absolutely. We're uh what 2/ird of the
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way or so uh through the regular season
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here, but you know, there's still
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another six-month playoff after that.
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>> Well, happily, it's not six months, but
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it is a little bit of a stretch. And
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it'll go fast in the beginning, then
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kind of get slow at the end. But yeah,
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right. Four regular season games left
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for most teams, and that just seems
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absurd. I mean, that's that's really
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surprising. Um and we want to get caught
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up. I I have to admit a couple things.
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Um, I've had my head deeply into
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teaching the last few weeks, which has
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corresponded nicely with a particular
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team from Austin, Texas, not performing
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especially well. So, between the two,
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I'm less out of touch than I usually am
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on football. But, I got some questions
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for you, Bill. I want to start though
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with some praise. I' I've come to praise
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you, not to question you to to begin
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with. Bill, we've talked about this on
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the show. I think we should talk about
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it like every week. when when you're in
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our business, you understand that
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uncertainty is really important and it's
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hard to communicate and moreover, people
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don't want to hear about it. And so the
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whole question of how do you communicate
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the importance of uncertainty, the the
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the the impact of uncertainty, the
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underappreciated consequences of
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uncertainty.
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I think you're just trying to be a
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clever writer, but you've come up with
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this method this year, which I think is
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absolutely inspired. You in your preview
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columns every week. So, Bill C, y'all
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know this, Bill Connley writes for ESPN.
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He's got a brand new book out, we should
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say, Forward Progress come out this this
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fall on the future of college football.
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Bill's um we know a college football
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historian, but he's also apparently a
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college football futurist. He's going to
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merge these things and tell us where
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we're going. College Football: Forward
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Progress. Bill's a author of multiple
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books. Anyway, weekly columns previewing
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college football. In this column, he
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does this thing. I think he calls them
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chaos superfectas. Chaos superfect.
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Bill, if you haven't made t-shirts yet,
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please do and send me one. I want a Bill
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Connley Chaos superfecta t-shirt. This
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is the concept, guys. This is the
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concept. Get this. Every week,
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>> is it different than the concept that
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I've been talking about and dreaming, as
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you know, for 11 and a half years in
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college football? Like if only Boise
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State could win out and then there'd be
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a conf between [laughter] this is not
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the chaos super effective you're talking
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about.
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>> Each each Saturday has its specific
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chaos super.
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>> So Bill, I should shut up and tell us
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about your chaos super effective.
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>> This is actually so this is the second
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year I've been doing it and I should
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have quit after last year because it
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killed last year. But um the idea is
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basically
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you know take four games and mash them
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into what like four games where the
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spread is you know probably 7 10 14
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points um and win probabilities
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generally end up being between about 72
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and 95 with my SP plus ratings. Uh mash
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them together and basically say hey
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there's only like a 43% chance that all
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four of these teams win. Um that way
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just I I I enjoyed it. I I basically
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replaced the picks section in my column
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each Friday with this which is so much
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better. Um, you know, I was agonizing
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over late late in the week uh spreads.
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All the good ones were gone. I was
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spending way too much time just to try
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to hit like 52% and the world didn't
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need a 9 millionth best bets section or
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column. So, I did something that was way
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that was very me instead. And yeah,
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basically said this I think this coming
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week is going to be Georgia Tech against
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Maryland, Texas Tech against Kansas
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State, Louisville against Virginia Tech,
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and Pit against Stanford. there's only a
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43% chance that all four of those teams
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win, which basically means we're getting
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an upset somewhere. Uh, somebody on is
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going to lose on the road and it's going
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to be fun. And that's my little way of
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reminding everybody that we're never
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that far away. We never completely know
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what's going on and we're never that far
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away from something chaotic happening.
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>> Exactly. He's reminding everybody that
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we don't know that even though each one
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of these by themselves, here's the
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thing. Each one of these feel by
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themselves like a more or less locked.
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In this case, it doesn't quite feel that
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way, but there these things are designed
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so that each one feels kind of like a
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lock, but people have a hard time
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understanding, but it's technically 75%.
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It's not a lock. It's 75 or it's 85% on
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the if you only give them one, it's hard
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for them to understand. But if you give
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them a portfolio and say, "Okay, guys,
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fine. Each one of them feels like a
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lock." But I'm telling you, there's a
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50-50 chance, and this is how Bill does
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it every week. Roughly 5050 chance that
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one of these favorites is going to go
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down because we put together a bundle of
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four. Now we can start understanding
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uncertainty better. So I just think it's
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freaking brilliant.
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>> Well, and last year I I overachieved big
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time. It got like 60 70% of the weeks
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where I hit at least one.
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>> Hold on. No, you're not supposed to do
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that. No, no, now you you that's not
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what you want. You want 50. You want
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exactly on the number or whatever.
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>> We're we're regressing to the mean this
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year. We started three and one this
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year, too. I'm like, "Oh my god, I am a
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genius." And now we've lost four out of
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five. So now we're at four and five for
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the season, which is basically where we
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should be.
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>> Right. Right. All right. So, does
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anybody else love this as much as we do?
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This is such a Wharton Munville concept.
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I mean, we I'm telling you, I want a
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t-shirt badly. But have you received any
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accolades or any appreciation for this
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thing at all?
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>> I I have definitely noticed that like
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two people asked where the pics went.
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Nobody's That's it in in a year and a
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half. Nobody's saying, "I really miss
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your pics." But they enjoy the chaos
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idea.
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>> Bill, I have a comment on this and then
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a question. The comment is I think
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people don't understand
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um you know I'll call it the probability
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of a and b and c and d is the product of
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those probabilities. So even if it was
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75 75 to the 4th is about a quarter
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right. So that means the probability
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that all of those favorites are going to
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win is that um people don't understand
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what I call the probability of at least
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one upset is one minus the probability
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of no upsets. And so you do that math
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and you end up with typically not a very
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small number. There's a high probability
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of at least one upset. You know, the
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kind of what I call a group set
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probabilities. That was my comment, but
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then I was going to ask you a question.
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I always have a belief, but you're going
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to tell me I'm nuts. Like you listed
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four games. Let's assume they're not all
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being played at the same time.
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How nuts am I to think that upsets like
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this are independent are not
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independent? of each other. Like for all
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right, so Kate says I'm nuts. I always
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say that, you know what, I'll make it
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up. I'm the nine o'clock at 10:00 p.m.
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West Coast game, which is 7:00. I've se
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I'll make it up. I've seen someone beat
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Georgia Tech. This team beats this. Why
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aren't we next? Is there any evidence
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that there's not independence? Cade's
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saying no. Good. I I just have to ask
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push. My general push back would be that
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the game days are so hilariously
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involved.
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You know, we're on the bus at this time.
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Like, I mean, guys are going to have
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their phones here and there or whatever.
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Um, if if like there's a huge upset in
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the noon game and you're playing at
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9:30, you probably know about the noon
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upset.
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>> Is that worth anything, Bill? Well, I
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think the very specific instance where I
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could see it maybe being where something
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would be like in a conference title race
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situation where um you need so and so to
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win at noon um for you to have a chance
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at 3:30 and now you know they're they
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were ahead when you went in there and
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maybe there's a little extra juice going
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on like okay we've got the chance in
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like in a specific scenario like that.
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Yes. But if it's like Georgia
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>> Technos let's listen to Bill here. Let's
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keep going. He's being he's being kind
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>> in a situation where it's like Georgia
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Tech lost at noon so we're playing Texas
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Tech at 7. We have a chance like that
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probably isn't the case but specific one
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result we need this to happen. I could
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see
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>> it's it is it is endlessly entertaining
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how our rigorous basian AI vice dean
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somehow periodically channels his inner
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I don't know 14year-old and decides that
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uh things like that
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>> we're all 14y olds.
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>> Well, we've got different varieties on
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that. That's true. Okay, Bill, let's
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talk one more question before we get to
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actual football. The coaching carousel
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is alive and well and as interesting as
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ever, if not more so, and I'm curious of
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of the many um open seats going around
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in this carousel or the various issues
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or connections or whatever, what most
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interests you, right?
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I I I was uh posting about this on
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social earlier um on Blue Sky actually
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like I think the most interesting thing
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to me is
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well to use my hometown team as an
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example like right now Eli Drinkitz is
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making he has a top 10 or 15 salary here
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at Missouri. He's rumored like he's
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going to be on Florida's list. He's
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going to be on LSU's list if Texas comes
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open. If so and so comes open like this
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could be an absolute nuts. He was on
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Penn State's list supposedly at first.
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He's on all these lists. he's going to
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get a huge raise this year. But if
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you're Missouri
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and your options are well, if you're
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you're going to try to keep him, you'll
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offer him a pretty healthy raise and
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suddenly you'll be paying like a top
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five, six, seven salary probably if he
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accepts it. But as a from a programmatic
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perspective, it's going to be really
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interesting with all these coaching
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hires. Some are going to go after the
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splash and and part of that is just, you
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know, that that athletic directors uh
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have to, you know, impress the big dumb
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money boosters by making a big dumb
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move. Like that's how you know you got
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to speak otherwise you'll get fired and
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you don't want to get fired. So, you're
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going to try to impress them uh by
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making a splash uh and paying a lot for
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a coach. Others are going to
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the idea is like would it be better for
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Missou's program if like if Drinkwis
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just if you if you're gonna have to pay
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him like $12 million a year to keep him
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is it better to pay him $12 million a
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year when you're not you know Texas or
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Ohio State or would it be basically say
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like man thanks for thanks for having do
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for the job you did go enjoy yourself at
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Florida we're going to hire an upand
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cominging offensive coordinator we're
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going to pay him $4 million a year we're
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going to plug that extra $12 million a
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year into uh NIL money for better
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recruits and better transfers and we're
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going to you can probably get six eight
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10 really solid transfers for $8
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million. Does that help your team more
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than the bird inhand good coach that you
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already have? And so that's going to be,
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you know, again, like every athletic
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director is going to try to keep their
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expensive coach, but you, you know, from
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from what we've seen, the teams that are
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at at the top of college football right
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now, most of them weren't hired as great
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successes elsewhere for a lot of money.
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Like, you know, maybe whether it's
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something you would aim to do or not,
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maybe it's better for a program to only
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pay $4 million a year and plug extra
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money into talent since you have to pay
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for talent now.
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>> Well, that's interesting. That's a it's
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a calculus that they haven't had in the
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past. So, it's it's kind of a new world
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in that respect. Bill, um absurd
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question, but kind of a fun way to think
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about it. If you had to go work as the
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head coach of either LSU, Florida, or
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Penn State,
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um setting aside where you want to live,
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but considering but considering all all
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factors, which is like you've got the
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recruiting hot beds, but you've also got
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maybe some crazy fan bases. Um which
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would you which situation would you
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rather walk into?
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Yeah, I immediately like food-wise LSU,
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[laughter]
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but
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>> of course you're going to choose food.
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>> Well, I do think um
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what what one of the things J that kind
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of blessed James Franklin ended up
00:12:56
cursing him, but you know, being Big
00:12:58
10's a more topheavy conference. Um, and
00:13:01
you know, we're seeing that this year,
00:13:03
especially with Florida with Penn State
00:13:04
kind of falling apart. Like Ohio State's
00:13:06
going to get all the way to the end of
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the season without having played like a
00:13:10
top 10 or 15 level team.
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>> Just note it's a 20point line this
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weekend. This was one of the biggest
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games of the year we look forward to.
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This was a top five on anybody's list
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game of the year, Ohio State, Penn
00:13:20
State, and now it's a 20-point line.
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>> Yeah. and and obviously Indiana's better
00:13:24
than expected in individual teams within
00:13:26
the Big 10 are better than expected. But
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overall, like the even with the SEC not
00:13:31
having any of I think the top four teams
00:13:32
in my SP plus ratings, it's still like
00:13:35
on average four points better than any
00:13:36
other conference because it has all the
00:13:38
depth. You just have more possible
00:13:39
losses in the SEC. And we might find out
00:13:41
that, you know, once a couple nine and
00:13:43
three SEC teams get in, maybe um we
00:13:46
think about this a little different, but
00:13:48
the one year of the 12 team playoff, we
00:13:50
know that the teams with the better
00:13:51
records got in. Uh, and just on that
00:13:53
alone, you would think that maybe Penn
00:13:54
State, considering they're going to pay
00:13:56
as much as anybody,
00:13:58
you might have to travel further in your
00:14:00
and add a little more travel into your
00:14:02
recruiting budget, but I don't think,
00:14:03
you know, James Franklin never really
00:14:05
struggled to sign fourstar recruits.
00:14:07
Feels like maybe that's the place to be.
00:14:09
You're just more likely to have an extra
00:14:11
win on the schedule and and get in. And
00:14:13
of course, like I said, that ended up
00:14:14
cursing James Franklin because he won
00:14:15
all those games, but could never beat
00:14:16
Ohio State. And the moment he started
00:14:18
losing to to mortal teams, he was out
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the door.
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>> Well, you're naming another dynamic
00:14:23
that's just new in college football.
00:14:25
That is the between transfers, NIL, and
00:14:28
realignment. The SEC is just an entirely
00:14:31
different animal to navigate from an
00:14:32
expected losses perspective. And the you
00:14:35
said topheavy
00:14:37
and you said, you know, and then the SK
00:14:39
the scheduling vagaries means you've
00:14:41
only got a couple teams you'd worry
00:14:42
about and you likely won't have to play
00:14:45
all of them. you some years won't have
00:14:46
to play any of them. And the thing is if
00:14:48
you miss those guys, the rest of your
00:14:50
schedule looks like the ACC that that
00:14:52
they literally if you look at the way
00:14:54
anybody who ensembles power rankings,
00:14:56
you've got three or four, maybe just
00:15:00
three Big 10 teams that up there
00:15:02
competing maybe even higher than the
00:15:03
SEC, but then it's a vast Gulf and a
00:15:06
bunch of those folks look they like the
00:15:07
ACC. Okay, so you're going you're going
00:15:10
to co to to um state college. Fine.
00:15:13
Okay, now let's talk a little bit of
00:15:15
football. Last weekend you had a big
00:15:17
game. You had Vandy U Missouri and so
00:15:19
you saw Vandy kind of up close in a way
00:15:23
and they this week go to Texas. Texas
00:15:27
has looked more or less wretched like
00:15:29
they could they could just end up in the
00:15:31
ditch any minute. They've been in the
00:15:32
ditch and somehow miraculously come out
00:15:34
of it a couple weeks in a row. They are
00:15:36
one and a half point favorites. Eric,
00:15:38
their fivestar supposed number one draft
00:15:41
pick quarterback is in concussion
00:15:43
protocol. Vandy's coming to town. They
00:15:46
just knocked off Missouri and Longhorns
00:15:48
are one and a half point favorites.
00:15:50
Please explain this to me.
00:15:52
>> Um, well, number one, Texas defense is
00:15:54
awesome. Uh, that's the reason game last
00:15:57
weekend against Mississippi State and
00:15:59
the 400 something yards that they gave
00:16:01
up on. Did you see that? I also I also
00:16:04
saw the game before that when the
00:16:07
Kentucky didn't score and Oklahoma
00:16:09
didn't score and you know the Ohio State
00:16:12
scored 14. Those those it all they're
00:16:14
still what seventh nationally in points
00:16:17
per drive. Um which granted isn't quite
00:16:19
as good as I would have expected since
00:16:20
they've only played really one like top
00:16:22
30 offense, but still good. The defense
00:16:24
is good. I'm really curious about
00:16:25
Vanny's offense. Um, you know, my buddy
00:16:29
uh Bud Elliot and I used to talk a lot
00:16:30
about co-variance within teams where
00:16:32
like
00:16:33
>> what huh? Are you flirting with us? Are
00:16:34
you flirting with us, Bill?
00:16:36
>> I knew this would be a good
00:16:38
>> woke up. Are you kidding? Audi's going
00:16:39
to be jealous. He missed the show.
00:16:41
Covarian
00:16:42
>> where basically some teams you have a
00:16:44
Utah for example where they're going to
00:16:46
crush teams with that have less talent
00:16:49
than them. They just know like they're
00:16:51
built their style is built around just
00:16:54
absolutely devouring teams being more
00:16:56
physical than them but they're less
00:16:58
likely to you know they're they might
00:16:59
underachieve against top five or 10
00:17:02
teams against projections whereas other
00:17:04
teams are the exact opposite and can
00:17:06
craft a game plan and you know play
00:17:08
great South Carolina almost beats
00:17:10
Alabama um but then you know stinks
00:17:13
against lesser teams. So, you know, with
00:17:17
Vanderbilt, I kind of get the inklings
00:17:19
of a design to destroy bad defenses
00:17:24
offense. And um you know, basically like
00:17:27
they they they did well against LSU's
00:17:29
defense, although LSU's defense went
00:17:30
from elite to like has been
00:17:32
significantly worse over these last few
00:17:34
weeks. They scored 14 points on Alabama.
00:17:36
Uh they scored 17 on Missouri and and
00:17:39
seven of that came from a short field at
00:17:40
the end. and they gained like 250 yards
00:17:43
for the game, 260, something like that.
00:17:45
Um, and Texas, like Texas and Missouri
00:17:48
have pretty similar defenses, I think,
00:17:50
but Texas has four and five star
00:17:51
athletes everywhere you look and and
00:17:53
Vanderbilt's not going to be able to
00:17:54
really move them. So, I do kind of
00:17:56
wonder about that aspect of things.
00:17:58
Another thing is doesn't really matter
00:18:00
if you play your backup quarterback if
00:18:01
your first stringer stinks and you're
00:18:03
not going to be punished much for that.
00:18:06
I do think I think the line opened at
00:18:07
three and a half. So maybe it came down
00:18:09
a couple points to account for Arch
00:18:10
Manning, but it is uh some amazing major
00:18:13
Apple White uh potential situation here
00:18:15
where the the the you know, Sims gets
00:18:18
hurt and Apple White comes in and is
00:18:19
great. Uh Matthew Caldwell has the world
00:18:22
just at his disposal right now.
00:18:24
>> Well, that's going to be fun. For those
00:18:25
who don't know, Caldwell was like a
00:18:27
fourthyear transfer brought in just to
00:18:29
have somebody who wasn't fresh out of
00:18:31
high school as a backup. His latest stop
00:18:34
was Troy, I think. The small the other
00:18:37
stops were smaller than that. You he
00:18:39
comes in last week and throws a
00:18:40
game-winning touchdown in overtime.
00:18:42
Beautiful and audible into it at that.
00:18:44
So, you know, good good start. Maybe
00:18:46
it's the other, you know, we'll take the
00:18:48
he doesn't have to be a complete progyny
00:18:50
that Manning is. We'll take someone who,
00:18:52
you know, can execute a few simple
00:18:54
throws. Okay, fine. Eric's got his hand
00:18:56
up there.
00:18:57
>> So, I was going to talk about it since
00:18:58
we're already on Vandy UT. I can make
00:19:01
the same comment here as I would on the
00:19:03
Ohio State Penn State game which you
00:19:05
just talked about beforehand.
00:19:07
You're someone, Bill, that cares as we
00:19:08
all do about uncertainty.
00:19:10
>> Is there any sim you think at the
00:19:13
beginning of the season that would have
00:19:15
had Ohio State as a 20point favorite on
00:19:18
Penn State? Do you think there's any sim
00:19:20
at the beginning of the season that
00:19:21
would have had Vandy favored against
00:19:23
Texas? I'm just trying to use this as a
00:19:26
general comment. Do we even massively
00:19:30
underestimate uncertainty? Both these
00:19:32
games make me think there's no sim where
00:19:34
this would have been in in the
00:19:36
distribution. It has been funny. I've
00:19:38
been working with my buddy Justin Moore.
00:19:40
He he runs a lot of the simulation stuff
00:19:42
with me and um he like he'll he plugs so
00:19:46
much uncertainty into when he's running
00:19:49
like you conference title race, college
00:19:51
football playoff forecast type of stuff.
00:19:53
And so at the beginning of the year, I
00:19:55
like I barely had any team in any
00:19:57
conference with like a greater than 20%
00:19:59
chance of winning the conference. And at
00:20:01
first glance, I'm like, "Oh boy, I don't
00:20:03
know about that." Um, and but the way
00:20:05
things have played out, it's it's really
00:20:08
I, you know, it it did a great job, I
00:20:10
think, of of forecasting that
00:20:12
uncertainty. And we're still in a period
00:20:13
where there are only a couple
00:20:14
conferences with even like 50% uh title
00:20:17
odds, I think. Um, yeah. I mean, I think
00:20:20
that's absolutely the Penn State
00:20:22
situation. I mean, they've only fallen
00:20:24
to like tw 18th or something in SP plus.
00:20:28
And honestly, like everybody's making
00:20:30
fun of that at the moment on social, but
00:20:32
the last game uh it they played was
00:20:35
against a really solid Iowa team. Uh,
00:20:37
and the projection was like 24 1.5 to
00:20:40
24.3 and the game was 2524 Iowa. Like,
00:20:44
so of course they didn't fall after that
00:20:45
game. They had a a blocked field goal
00:20:48
return in there which helped. But I mean
00:20:50
I think they're still a top 20 or 30
00:20:52
team and uh you know if you're if you're
00:20:55
I think you can account for that like if
00:20:56
you're projected whatever Penn State was
00:20:58
top three or so you've got to plug and
00:21:01
they wouldn't have had as much
00:21:02
uncertainty as other teams because they
00:21:04
didn't hit the transfer portal as much.
00:21:05
That was one of the ways we tried to
00:21:07
bake it in like if you have 60 new guys
00:21:09
then we're going to make up the huge
00:21:11
error bar for you. Um, but they still I
00:21:14
think you you you should be able to do
00:21:15
that. We just ended up with some pretty
00:21:17
wild outlier uh with between Clemson and
00:21:20
Penn State especially. We had some
00:21:21
pretty big outliers at the top.
00:21:23
>> So Eric, it's such a good question,
00:21:24
Eric. This just it emphasizes how your
00:21:26
sim has to have enough uncertainty into
00:21:28
it. And I think the world's slowly
00:21:30
catching up to this. Early on when
00:21:31
people were running sims, they'd get
00:21:33
their power rankings in the top of the
00:21:35
season. and they say Penn State's a 22
00:21:37
and Florida State's an 18 and that's the
00:21:39
number and all their sins would be based
00:21:40
on that number and everything else is
00:21:42
just a coin flip on who you know but
00:21:44
that's just crazy. I I feel like the
00:21:46
Texas Vandy outcome is utterly within
00:21:50
the realm of normal Sims Penn State is I
00:21:54
mean I'm hearing Bill give a little pep
00:21:56
talk here which is great but I mean
00:21:57
that's a pretty big structural change to
00:21:59
see those three losses. It would. Yeah,
00:22:01
it ought to be in there because we've
00:22:03
got 130 something teams and so you
00:22:05
should see some extreme crops, but um it
00:22:08
is extreme. Bill, another onfield
00:22:11
question that I just continue to get a
00:22:12
kick out of. I'm honestly curious. You
00:22:14
watch more than me. You've been watching
00:22:15
it more longer than I have, but I still
00:22:17
can't get used to like the USC Nebraska
00:22:19
mid-season games. Like USC going to
00:22:20
Lincoln. One of my favorite football
00:22:22
watching moments of this season so far
00:22:24
was like a random afternoon I came in
00:22:26
and popped down and watched USA in
00:22:28
Urbana Champagne. It was a great game,
00:22:30
but it was just I got such a kick out
00:22:32
of, you know, it's like a small stadium
00:22:33
and here's USC playing in the middle of
00:22:35
the Big 10. I I'm just not used to it.
00:22:38
>> Yeah. At least with this one, we had the
00:22:39
team of the 90s versus the team of the
00:22:40
2000s.
00:22:42
>> It's a helmet game. It's a major helmet
00:22:43
game in the middle of November,
00:22:44
>> right?
00:22:45
>> Um yeah, this is one of the ones I guess
00:22:47
they sold when uh when they were
00:22:48
convincing NBC to pay absurd amounts of
00:22:51
money to air like Michigan State versus
00:22:53
Purdue and prime time. Like they have a
00:22:55
couple like it's been a pretty bad year
00:22:56
for them. But um I I'm not there is a
00:23:00
novelty to a lot of it. I I remember for
00:23:03
for my book I talked to my friend Nam.
00:23:05
He's a C a Cal fan. Uh and of course Cal
00:23:07
fans went nuts on the internet last year
00:23:09
and a bunch of them traveled to Florida
00:23:11
State and you know all the places across
00:23:14
the country and Cal did pretty well for
00:23:15
a while and they kind of tried to
00:23:17
embrace the absolute absurdity of their
00:23:19
schedule. Um and I think he went to
00:23:21
Boston for Boston College this year.
00:23:23
bunch of Florida State fans were go
00:23:25
we're were going out to to Cal like it's
00:23:27
all novelty stuff right now.
00:23:28
>> Yeah. Right.
00:23:30
>> But in 10 years
00:23:32
when like h I'm not going back out to
00:23:34
Berkeley. I'm not going to this game.
00:23:36
Like I I feel like the novelty is going
00:23:37
to wear off and there's just not going
00:23:39
to be unless you just play a ton of
00:23:41
ridiculous close wild games against each
00:23:43
other. That's kind of that's bonded
00:23:44
Missouri and South Carolina to a certain
00:23:46
degree. They played a bunch of nutty
00:23:47
games and therefore they're kind of
00:23:49
rivals even though they're 15 hours
00:23:50
apart. Uh but even 15 hours isn't like
00:23:54
30 or whatever it would take to drive
00:23:56
from uh you know the Midwest to to USC.
00:24:00
So I just I hate that aspect. It's just
00:24:02
it's a lot more fun when there are some
00:24:03
road fans in the in and that aspect is
00:24:05
going to get is going to hurt I think
00:24:07
moving forward even if you know at least
00:24:09
we get a helmet game out of this.
00:24:10
>> Yeah. Right, Eric.
00:24:11
>> So but I want to ask a question. If we
00:24:13
looked at the pre-season rankings or
00:24:16
let's say FPI and now we're sitting here
00:24:19
after whatever
00:24:20
>> SP plus SP plus
00:24:22
>> SP plus sorry SP plus and we're sitting
00:24:24
there we're looking at SP plus at the
00:24:26
beginning of the season and now or
00:24:27
whatever 8 n whatever number of games in
00:24:30
okay are there if if I had to ask you at
00:24:33
the beginning of the season how many
00:24:35
teams would it take for Bill Connley to
00:24:39
cover
00:24:41
80% 90% % of the probability
00:24:44
of winning the national title. Are there
00:24:47
more teams or less teams in your set
00:24:50
right now?
00:24:53
>> Um,
00:24:54
>> I'm ask It's okay. I'm just to make sure
00:24:56
my question again for our listener.
00:24:57
Let's say at the beginning of the
00:24:58
season, Bill thought there were 10 teams
00:25:00
needed to cover 90% of the probability
00:25:02
to win the national title. Is that
00:25:04
number bigger or smaller than 10 right
00:25:07
now? Has, in other words, has the season
00:25:09
gone so anominously compared to the
00:25:12
priors that it might actually, you might
00:25:14
say, well, of course, the posterior has
00:25:16
to be smaller because we've learned so
00:25:19
much. But we might learn that we didn't
00:25:21
actually know very much in our prior. So
00:25:23
that's why I'm asking, is it more teams
00:25:24
or less teams?
00:25:26
>> My my initial instinct was to say less
00:25:28
just because I think Ohio State's just
00:25:30
been cruising in second gear and they're
00:25:31
going to hit the gas in the playoffs and
00:25:33
destroy everybody. Um, and that'll get
00:25:35
me most of the way to 90% right there.
00:25:37
Um, but that aside, if I'm looking at
00:25:39
the list, uh, just the current SB Plus
00:25:41
rankings, like Georgia's 12th, and I
00:25:44
could see them finding another gear. Uh,
00:25:47
Texas is 13th. I could I I don't think I
00:25:49
can see them finding another gear, but
00:25:51
they have talent levels that could at
00:25:52
least make it. So, I, you know,
00:25:56
man, I don't know. Like, it it might
00:25:58
actually My initial reflex was less, but
00:26:01
it might be a couple more now. um
00:26:03
>> you know I think just because
00:26:04
>> I think it I think it might have gone
00:26:06
down for a while right like the
00:26:07
certainty might have gone down in the
00:26:09
first month of the season for sure
00:26:11
>> right [clears throat] I don't know if
00:26:12
it's it's rebounded all the way but
00:26:13
>> either way I think if that's true by
00:26:15
even if it's the same or or a little
00:26:17
more I I don't know why I'm on a kick
00:26:19
lately about studying I it's not really
00:26:22
formally this in the statistical sense
00:26:24
but most people would say you have a
00:26:25
prior of course this is true you have a
00:26:27
prior you collect data let's call that
00:26:29
the likelihood the regular season and
00:26:31
then by the end you have a posterior and
00:26:33
most people think information reduces
00:26:35
the posterior variance. So, we should
00:26:37
have more certainty potentially on a
00:26:40
smaller number of teams. And I'm looking
00:26:43
I'm actually studying problems like this
00:26:45
in my home field of marketing now where
00:26:46
actually information comes in and you're
00:26:48
less certain, not more certain. And if
00:26:51
this is true, I think this is great for
00:26:53
sports. I don't think it's bad. I think
00:26:54
it's good.
00:26:55
>> Eric, the property you need is that the
00:26:57
information coming in is disagreeing
00:26:59
with the prior.
00:27:00
>> That is correct. That is exactly
00:27:02
correct. Well, speaking of priors, Bill,
00:27:04
I I hadn't thought about this, but I had
00:27:06
thought about it since I've talked with
00:27:07
you last. You are you getting sufficient
00:27:10
victory laps on the season? And on what
00:27:12
topics do you deserve victory laps? So,
00:27:14
for example, I know you get them on
00:27:15
Clemson. A lot of people lauded you
00:27:17
early on as they burned they crashed and
00:27:20
burned early. So, that's number one
00:27:22
probably on the Bill Connelly victory
00:27:23
lap for 2025 season. I think you should
00:27:25
get one for Texas. You called out the
00:27:27
uncertainty around both QB and offensive
00:27:30
line. offensive line is the real issue,
00:27:31
by the way.
00:27:32
>> Yeah.
00:27:32
>> Um and I and you were ear you were
00:27:35
skeptical. You were longhorn skeptical
00:27:36
based on exactly those issues which have
00:27:38
proven true. So I'm giving you victory
00:27:40
props for those. And and look, we get
00:27:42
things wrong all the time preseason. So
00:27:44
we should at least note when we get them
00:27:46
right. What else? What else is on the
00:27:48
t-shirt? I'm making a t-shirt for you
00:27:49
now. What's on the t-shirt for the 2025
00:27:51
victory lap for Connley?
00:27:54
>> Well, I'm pretty sure having Ohio State
00:27:56
projected number one is going to turn
00:27:57
out pretty well, too. Um,
00:27:58
>> I hope you're ahead of yourself.
00:28:00
>> I I hope I am too. Like I want a I want
00:28:02
a fun play out this year. Um, yeah,
00:28:05
those are It is funny. One thing I've
00:28:06
definitely learned this season is um,
00:28:08
you know, as far as what you get credit
00:28:10
for, it's all about closest to the pen
00:28:11
because I still had Clemson projected
00:28:14
tenth. [laughter] I was just lower than
00:28:15
everybody else. Therefore, I was closest
00:28:18
to being therefore I I get a lot of
00:28:21
credit for being skeptical. And and
00:28:23
you're right. I mean, with Texas, um, my
00:28:25
whole line in the offseason was if Arch
00:28:28
is anything but the best player in the
00:28:30
country, massive uncertainty on the O
00:28:32
line and receiver and core sure could
00:28:34
matter. And that it's mattered a massive
00:28:36
amount,
00:28:36
>> but uh, but I still had them projected
00:28:38
fifth rank in the team now.
00:28:41
>> So, um, th those were the big ones. Uh,
00:28:43
just kind of looking through a lot of
00:28:44
the top rankings. I mean, Michigan is
00:28:47
was a whiff, I think, to a certain
00:28:48
degree. They weren't I didn't think they
00:28:50
were going to be top 10, so I disagreed
00:28:51
with SP plus and I had Notre Dame pretty
00:28:54
high, which I think is still going to
00:28:55
pay off pretty well. Um, you know, Penn
00:28:57
State was a whiff obviously as well, but
00:29:00
no, I think Ohio State, Texas, and
00:29:01
Clemson are the ones that um that that
00:29:03
make them that that I I feel pretty good
00:29:05
about still.
00:29:06
>> Brad, let's jump in here.
00:29:07
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I I was just going to
00:29:09
ask you um do you think that um I I
00:29:14
always like to ask these questions. So,
00:29:16
you all you think Ohio State's obviously
00:29:17
a very good team. maybe one maybe the
00:29:19
best team and you let's say you have
00:29:21
some SP plus predicted championship win
00:29:24
probability and now I say oh wait I
00:29:26
forgot to tell you Ryan Duke finally got
00:29:29
off the schneide and won the title last
00:29:31
year is that worth anything to you
00:29:34
>> um yeah I think so really um
00:29:37
>> guys know I ask this question every time
00:29:41
it's not going to call momentum I'm just
00:29:43
going to call it I've I've got this
00:29:45
additional piece of information that
00:29:47
maybe you haven't factored into your
00:29:49
model and I'm just asking you is that
00:29:51
worth anything?
00:29:52
>> Well, so in my head it's worth
00:29:54
something. To a to my model it's not.
00:29:56
Let's put it that way. Well, I mean
00:29:58
>> it's baked in through their performance,
00:30:00
>> right? It's it's baked in through the
00:30:02
fact that they played a bunch of good
00:30:03
teams and beat them soundly at the end
00:30:05
of the year. Therefore, they ranked
00:30:06
higher and therefore it carries forward.
00:30:08
But as far as just knowing that they
00:30:10
won, in my head it means I can trust
00:30:12
Ryan Day a little bit more. clear there
00:30:14
is no co-variant in your model that has
00:30:17
has the coach won a national
00:30:18
championship has the coach won a
00:30:20
national championship recently there
00:30:22
could be and one could assess whether
00:30:24
that's worth anything but at the moment
00:30:26
there is no factor like that in the
00:30:28
model
00:30:29
>> right just pure pure mental model but
00:30:31
not not S+ formula model
00:30:33
>> but Bill's always been good um for years
00:30:36
at at running his model sharing his
00:30:38
model results and then saying but I
00:30:40
would judge it this way or that way like
00:30:42
he recognizes that his if his if he was
00:30:44
going to write down his actual
00:30:45
predictions, it would be based on the
00:30:47
model, but it would be permuted in some
00:30:48
way. All right, Bill, we got to cut.
00:30:50
>> Starts with the numbers and then
00:30:52
>> Yeah, goes from there. Yeah,
00:30:53
>> we got to cut you out here, but I want
00:30:54
to ask you um to help us uh look beyond
00:30:57
the obvious two conferences and maybe
00:30:59
even beyond Well, let's beyond the
00:31:01
obvious two conferences. Give us one of
00:31:04
your favorite storylines, hopefully one
00:31:05
that's ongoing so we can still enjoy it
00:31:08
from outside of the SEC and Big 10. and
00:31:10
let me constrain you from not going all
00:31:12
the way off the edge into FCS. I know
00:31:14
you'd like to go into FCS, but let me
00:31:15
constrain you to FBS for the time being
00:31:18
and just give us give us an additional
00:31:19
story line.
00:31:21
>> I I did have an answer ready to go about
00:31:23
Harvard there, but um [laughter] I my my
00:31:26
model has been like third in the country
00:31:27
right now.
00:31:29
>> I I I realize I'm not telling that to
00:31:31
the right audience, but um no, honestly,
00:31:34
one of the most interesting stories both
00:31:35
for the present and the future of the
00:31:37
sport is Texas Tech, I think. Um, you
00:31:40
know, they made a big deal. Cody
00:31:42
Campbell, Mr. Oil billionaire booster,
00:31:45
um, you know, went out and got the best
00:31:47
softball pitcher in the country and they
00:31:48
immediately went to the national title
00:31:50
game last year. Can't remember who they
00:31:52
lost to in that national title game.
00:31:54
>> I think it might have been one of my
00:31:55
favorite Longhorn sports watching
00:31:57
moments of all time.
00:31:59
>> Um, but but they still went from nothing
00:32:01
to national runner up. Then they went
00:32:03
out and got a few more players this
00:32:05
year. They're going to be dynamite this
00:32:06
year. But um he's basically trying to
00:32:08
kind of openly break the model of the
00:32:11
sport right now um by just throwing
00:32:14
millions of dollars of players. They
00:32:15
have tons of like fivestar commits
00:32:16
moving forward.
00:32:17
>> And facilities facilities, have you seen
00:32:19
the hype video around those facilities?
00:32:20
It's incredible.
00:32:23
>> We're I'm I'm happy we haven't lost that
00:32:24
just because we have to pay players.
00:32:26
We're still going to make facilities
00:32:27
that are 38 times too good uh for what
00:32:29
they're needed.
00:32:31
But they went out and he they made a big
00:32:33
deal about getting the most expensive
00:32:35
transfer class in the country. I wasn't
00:32:36
completely sure how much it was going to
00:32:38
fix their defense. Their defense is
00:32:40
phenomenal.
00:32:41
And basically, if they can keep their
00:32:43
quarterback healthy, which they haven't
00:32:44
been able to do, their backups hurt now,
00:32:46
but I think their starters back to being
00:32:47
able to play.
00:32:50
They're fourth in SP plus uh despite
00:32:52
having missed their uh their starting
00:32:54
quarterback the last two weeks. Like
00:32:55
they have really really clicked. And I
00:32:58
think if you know I am very much worried
00:33:00
about the way the SEC and Big 10 have
00:33:02
basically arranged to hoard all the
00:33:03
money from the future of the sport uh
00:33:05
and the playoff and all that and Texas
00:33:08
Tech coming in here and just trying to
00:33:09
break things and make people react is I
00:33:12
I can't guarantee that'll produce a good
00:33:13
reaction or if it's something I like but
00:33:16
I I like that they're trying it. I think
00:33:18
and and they're really really really
00:33:19
good and fast this year.
00:33:20
>> Good good fun. They have a big game this
00:33:22
weekend. Kate, one of the early um
00:33:24
preseason Big 12 favorites or
00:33:26
>> they're smoking hot too. So, I said all
00:33:28
this and now they're going to lose to
00:33:29
Kate State.
00:33:29
>> Exactly. Bill I Bill said in this week's
00:33:32
review that Kate was really on the come
00:33:34
after having really had a early season
00:33:37
bumps, but they they have a good program
00:33:39
and it should be an interesting game
00:33:40
this weekend. Bill, we've kept you
00:33:41
longer than we meant to. Always
00:33:43
enjoyable to talk to you, Bill Connley.
00:33:45
Y'all chasing down ESPN um ESPN Bill C
00:33:48
on Twitter. It's probably looking pretty
00:33:50
similar on Blue Sky, I'm guessing. But
00:33:52
you can see Bill lots of places and buy
00:33:54
his book, Forward Progress: The Future
00:33:56
of College Football just out this fall.
00:33:59
>> Absolutely.
00:34:00
>> Thank you, Bill.
00:34:00
>> Take care, guys.
00:34:01
>> That's been the first half of Wharton
00:34:03
Moneyball. Come back and join us after
00:34:04
the break.
00:34:06
>> Welcome back. Welcome back to the
00:34:07
Wharton podcast network and Wharton
00:34:09
Moneyball. This is Eric Bradlo,
00:34:11
professor of marketing, statistics, and
00:34:12
data science. and I'm here with my
00:34:14
co-host, longtime friend, co-graduate
00:34:16
school classmate, although years apart,
00:34:19
professor of statistics and data
00:34:20
science, Shane Jensen. Uh this is the
00:34:22
second half of the show. Uh we just had
00:34:25
Kade Massie leading us with Bill Connley
00:34:27
of ESPN and SP Plus talking about
00:34:30
college football and what surprised him.
00:34:33
But now, uh Shane, we have to move on to
00:34:35
the open, if you'd like, line segment of
00:34:38
the show. Of course, one of the topics I
00:34:39
know we want to talk about is baseball.
00:34:41
But before we get to what caught your
00:34:43
eye in last night's game or baseball
00:34:44
more generally, um I had turned off the
00:34:47
game in the seventh inning. I was sound
00:34:49
asleep and then my two West Coast sons,
00:34:52
the phone rings at 1:00 in the morning.
00:34:54
Of course, I'm panicking like, "What is
00:34:55
it? What is it?" Goes, "Dad, you're
00:34:56
never going to believe it." In the 13th
00:34:57
inning, you got to put on the game and
00:34:59
watch the rest of it.
00:35:00
>> So, I did watch innings 13 through 18,
00:35:03
by the way, uh thanks to Ethan and Zack
00:35:05
Bradlo. But, um what caught your eye in
00:35:08
the game? There's lots of things, but
00:35:10
I'd love to hear or just more broadly
00:35:12
about what's happening in baseball.
00:35:14
>> Well, what a couple things that caught
00:35:16
my eye specifically about that game, and
00:35:18
this is one thing for the game in
00:35:19
general. It's pretty cool. Like there
00:35:21
the in 2018, the World Series game three
00:35:24
also went 18 innings. They're the two
00:35:27
longest games in World Series history.
00:35:29
The one in 2018 took 7 hours and 20
00:35:32
minutes. The one last night was 6 hours
00:35:35
and 40 minutes, basically. So the pitch
00:35:37
cl we we've got kind of a a nice little
00:35:40
like control experiment for the
00:35:41
>> Let me ask a question. I know just to
00:35:43
really control. Do you happen to know
00:35:45
what was the score in that game? Like
00:35:46
was there more scoring, less scoring?
00:35:48
Was
00:35:49
>> I don't I don't I'm not sure I have in
00:35:50
front of it, but the No. Uh well the
00:35:52
this game actually the one last night
00:35:54
had 600 Here's here's one kind of proxy.
00:35:57
The one last night had 609 pitches
00:35:59
versus only 561 pitches in the one in
00:36:02
2018. So the one last night actually had
00:36:04
more pitches.
00:36:04
>> All right. So now I love that because
00:36:06
actually to me that might be an even
00:36:08
greater proxy. Although I do agree
00:36:10
number of pitches, hard to imagine more
00:36:12
pitchers than last night's game because
00:36:14
I think you know I was about to go in
00:36:15
and pitch. My son was about to drive
00:36:17
down who lives in LA was about to drive
00:36:18
down to Dodger Stadium and see if they
00:36:20
needed an arm. But
00:36:21
>> well you I don't know and the one of the
00:36:23
other things that I noticed about the
00:36:24
game last night before we get to show is
00:36:26
Yamamoto has pitched two complete games
00:36:30
in this playoffs and was was warming up
00:36:32
in the bullpen last night. two days
00:36:35
after pitch. Let me ask your opinion
00:36:37
about that. As you know, if Yamamoto uh
00:36:40
he had pitched two days ago.
00:36:42
>> Yeah. A complete game,
00:36:44
>> right? He would he would normally do
00:36:46
some throwing today anyway. So, do you
00:36:49
see it that different than let's imagine
00:36:51
his throwing day is 40 50 pitches,
00:36:54
whatever it is. So, why don't you just
00:36:56
why can't he just come into the game and
00:36:57
throw 40 or 50 pitches?
00:36:59
>> I mean, you I mean, I guess I'm not a
00:37:01
I'm not a pitcher, so I don't know. I
00:37:03
would assume that whatever kind of
00:37:05
bullpen regime he has,
00:37:07
>> he's not throwing high 90s to let it
00:37:09
rip.
00:37:10
>> Not in the kind of intense environment
00:37:12
where he's still facing like Guerrero
00:37:15
Jr. and stuff like that. So, no, I I I
00:37:17
don't think I I don't think it would be
00:37:19
an analogous simulated game. I mean, I
00:37:21
think it's certainly the other the other
00:37:24
situation is like, you know, he's got to
00:37:26
if he comes in, he's got to get through
00:37:28
three batters, right? It's not like you
00:37:30
can kindly suddenly like, you know,
00:37:32
>> let me ask you a question about that.
00:37:34
Let me ask you a question. So, this is
00:37:37
an interesting trade-off. Let's suppose
00:37:40
that Yamamoto did have to come in. Okay?
00:37:44
And let's imagine we believe he's a good
00:37:45
pitcher. Not a bad thing to assume,
00:37:47
right? Let's imagine it increases their
00:37:51
win probability in this game by some
00:37:53
number, but it for some reason it also
00:37:55
decreases their win probability in game
00:37:58
five, let's say, which is which is what
00:38:00
he would have pitched. How do you think
00:38:03
about that mathematics? Like in other
00:38:05
words, while you gain, you might also,
00:38:08
we have no, by the way, we have no
00:38:09
evidence that it would lower the
00:38:11
probability for game five, but we could
00:38:13
hypothesize it might. How would you
00:38:15
think about that? I I don't know how I
00:38:16
would
00:38:17
>> as a manager. I think I'd go
00:38:19
>> immediate benefit at all, you know, type
00:38:22
of thing. Like I think you kind of have
00:38:23
to go. I mean, because the hypothetical
00:38:25
like game five or six, the world could
00:38:28
change between now and then.
00:38:29
>> It might never happen.
00:38:31
>> Yeah. It might never happen. You may
00:38:32
not, you know, you never may get to
00:38:34
realize that game six or seven benefit.
00:38:37
No. And I And I think he it would be
00:38:38
like game six or seven he'd be lined up.
00:38:40
He would
00:38:40
>> It's also a discreet outcome, as you're
00:38:42
pointing out, which is they're now up
00:38:45
two to one. I mean, that's a big
00:38:48
difference than being down two to one. I
00:38:50
mean, it's a big difference.
00:38:51
>> Yeah. No, it was I mean, especially like
00:38:53
after that. I mean, we'll see what
00:38:55
happens tonight with Shi on the mound
00:38:58
after
00:38:59
going nine for like getting on base nine
00:39:03
times last night. Well, let me ask you a
00:39:06
question about that record, by the way.
00:39:07
>> Yeah, I know. Tied a record. Yep. Tied a
00:39:09
record.
00:39:09
>> Well, I mean, record in the postseason.
00:39:12
>> No, I think it tied a record. I saw
00:39:14
Antonio I mean the previous on the
00:39:16
screen
00:39:16
>> the previous times it's ever happened in
00:39:18
a baseball game all in like the pre9 in
00:39:21
the 1940s or earlier
00:39:24
>> the previous like I think it the
00:39:26
postseason record is eight I think the
00:39:29
>> oh I thought it was nine I thought he
00:39:31
had match
00:39:31
>> and the uh World Series record prior to
00:39:34
last night was six.
00:39:35
>> Okay, but let me ask you another
00:39:36
question.
00:39:37
>> Crazy. Is there any way in your mind
00:39:40
that this 18 ining game yesterday
00:39:45
affects his pitching ability?
00:39:47
>> Yeah. No, I mean I I you'd think it
00:39:49
would, right? I mean, I don't know. I
00:39:51
mean, maybe he's again, he continues to
00:39:53
exhibit superhuman powers. So, I I I I I
00:39:57
can only project what me as a human
00:40:00
would experience, but I feel like yes,
00:40:02
having to play an 18 inning game and
00:40:04
then go out and pitch the next day would
00:40:07
definitely I feel like affect your
00:40:08
performance.
00:40:10
So, I mean, I think that that's an extra
00:40:12
element of of course.
00:40:15
I mean, they couldn't take him out
00:40:16
because he was an automatic on base. I I
00:40:18
mean like you can't I can't you can't
00:40:20
pull him out of the lineup when he's
00:40:21
getting on base every time he goes up
00:40:24
but you know they must have been I I yes
00:40:28
I I think it does it could have a
00:40:29
dramatic effect today that said he
00:40:32
continues to defy expectations so
00:40:35
question so now he's had I mean this
00:40:37
game obviously extraordinary memorable
00:40:39
nine times on base he obviously had the
00:40:41
what was it three homer game three homer
00:40:44
and 10 strikeout game
00:40:45
>> right three homer and 10 strikeout game.
00:40:48
How much does
00:40:51
his level of, let's call it, three
00:40:54
sigma, four sigma performances, I mean,
00:40:56
these are some of the greatest
00:40:57
performances in any baseball game ever.
00:41:00
How much does it
00:41:03
change your view of him like where he
00:41:08
ranks in kind of all time now?
00:41:10
>> I actually do. I I think he might be the
00:41:12
greatest baseball player of all time,
00:41:14
which is kind of a crazy thing to say.
00:41:16
Now, just to be clear,
00:41:18
>> do not believe I think I agree. I think
00:41:20
you're going to agree with what I'm
00:41:20
about to say.
00:41:22
>> We can have a debate. Let's take tennis
00:41:24
just for one second or football for one
00:41:26
second. We can debate maybe maybe
00:41:29
whether NovakJokovic is the greatest
00:41:32
tennis player of all time, but he's
00:41:34
certainly the most accomplished tennis
00:41:35
player of all time. Somebody might want
00:41:37
to debate whether there was some tiny
00:41:39
stretch of their time that was um
00:41:44
somebody was better than Tom Brady, but
00:41:46
certainly Tom Brady by far is the most
00:41:49
accomplished football player of all
00:41:51
time. You're not saying that you think
00:41:53
Show is the most accomplished baseball
00:41:56
player of all time. You just I mean
00:42:00
>> Yeah. Like I mean like you know on like
00:42:02
some cumulative weather measure of
00:42:04
overall performance. I mean, somebody
00:42:06
like B, I I think it's got to still be
00:42:08
Dave Ruth. I I just I think, you know,
00:42:11
show is doing something that nobody in
00:42:13
the sport has ever done before. And it's
00:42:17
kind of reim I I mean, you sort of said
00:42:20
it to me, it's kind of it is inspiring.
00:42:22
It's reimagining the sport to me like
00:42:24
like like he is he really like an
00:42:29
absolute unicorn? we'll never see it
00:42:30
again. Or or or are we looking at like a
00:42:32
situation where like a generation from
00:42:34
now there's multiple like there's there
00:42:37
there's two-way players like often on
00:42:40
the field or something like that. What
00:42:42
if he what if this is like you know he
00:42:44
he he could actually end up inspiring
00:42:46
like a change in the sport or maybe he's
00:42:49
just that he's like six sigma or
00:42:51
whatever it is off the chain and and uh
00:42:54
we'll never see something like it again.
00:42:56
But it's it is kind of um let me ask a
00:42:58
question. I think kind of uniqueness is
00:43:00
the kind of proxy or or or construct on
00:43:03
which I think he's the greatest of all
00:43:05
time. Cumulative achievement obviously.
00:43:08
>> In other words, there's a
00:43:09
multi-dimensional you're now taking two
00:43:11
dimensions by which you could make an
00:43:14
argument. Well, let me ask you a
00:43:15
question before I make my statement. I
00:43:19
think you would agree, but tell me if
00:43:20
I'm wrong, that he's farther in the tail
00:43:23
as a hitter than he is as a pitcher. or
00:43:27
you wouldn't agree to that?
00:43:28
>> Yes. Yes, that's right. I mean, if you
00:43:30
if you kind of kind of consider them two
00:43:32
separate people. I mean, yeah, that's
00:43:33
right.
00:43:34
>> If you consider them two separate He's
00:43:36
like uh he's like a top five hitter in
00:43:38
baseball or maybe like a top 10 or 15
00:43:41
pitcher in baseball.
00:43:42
>> Yeah, that's what I was That's what I
00:43:44
was asking or at least certainly how
00:43:45
he's pitched the last year.
00:43:47
>> Yeah. So am I to get to look and the
00:43:50
other stat I saw which I know you saw in
00:43:52
his last seven at bats remember walks
00:43:54
don't count as official at bats he has
00:43:56
five home runs and two doubles.
00:44:01
I mean I've never seen I've never se I
00:44:04
mean look he has to go down look as you
00:44:06
know obviously everyone on the show
00:44:08
knows I'm a Yankee fan. He has to be Mr.
00:44:10
October.
00:44:11
>> Yeah. Yeah. And I I mean it's kind of
00:44:14
crazy. It's like, you know, it's and and
00:44:16
then in the midst of all that, you
00:44:19
somehow forget about what Freddy
00:44:20
Freeman's doing.
00:44:21
>> I was going to ask you, I was like also
00:44:23
like just like clutch home run after
00:44:25
clutch.
00:44:25
>> I don't know if you I actually went in
00:44:27
this World Series cheering for the Blue
00:44:28
Jays if you believe it.
00:44:30
>> And I I was rooting for the Blue Jays
00:44:31
while you're Canadian at some I
00:44:34
understand you're not from Toronto. I
00:44:35
got it that you know that might as well
00:44:37
be the other part of the world for where
00:44:39
you
00:44:39
>> Yeah. I mean, normally in the AL East,
00:44:40
I'm not I don't find myself cheering for
00:44:42
him during the course of the season all
00:44:44
that often. Anyway, fun story, but like
00:44:46
I mean, you know what the Dodgers doing
00:44:49
and and again, it's hard not to kind of
00:44:50
just get wrapped up in the drama of um
00:44:53
Freeman. Anyway, I think I interrupted
00:44:55
you with about Freddy.
00:44:56
>> No, no, no, no, no. What I was going to
00:44:57
say was I just saw I I'm sure you saw
00:45:00
this stat about Freddy Freeman. I
00:45:01
actually I was surprised by this. He's
00:45:03
the only player in Major League Baseball
00:45:06
history with two walk-off home runs in
00:45:09
the World Series.
00:45:11
>> Yeah, that's interesting.
00:45:12
>> I'd never seen that. I mean, obviously
00:45:14
>> I I'd heard I think like if you expand
00:45:16
that to postseason, I like
00:45:19
>> four or five like I then you've got like
00:45:21
Ortiz and Pooh Holes and I think maybe
00:45:23
Jeter, too. I'm not sure. like there's a
00:45:24
few others that have done it over the
00:45:26
opposition.
00:45:28
It is you give some weird cuts of the
00:45:30
data when you restrict yourself
00:45:31
specifically the World Series. But you
00:45:33
you'd think even like in you know all
00:45:35
those decades where the Yankees were
00:45:38
destroying you know balls that that
00:45:39
would have happened before as well.
00:45:43
>> Yeah. Can you remind our listeners on
00:45:45
here on uh Wharton Moneyball uh the
00:45:48
Jensen stats for the Hall of Fame and
00:45:51
how as cuz we're talking about Freddy
00:45:53
Freeman. I just wanted to know remind me
00:45:55
like roughly if you remember how many
00:45:58
hits, how many home runs kind of what
00:45:59
gets you into the Hall of Fame. You
00:46:01
remember to keep things as the same
00:46:03
basic fraction of players as it is now.
00:46:05
>> Yeah, I believe it's 350 home runs or
00:46:08
2500 hits I believe.
00:46:09
>> Okay. Well, just to be clear,
00:46:11
>> I'll check that as we're talking. knew
00:46:12
it was 2500 hits. It could have been 350
00:46:15
home runs. So, you agree with me?
00:46:18
>> He's a Hall of Famer now. And by the
00:46:20
way, there's an outside chance
00:46:23
he could join the Elite 500 home run,
00:46:27
30,000 hit club. He has 2400 and
00:46:30
something hits, 369 home runs. He's 36.
00:46:35
He plays four more seasons, which yeah,
00:46:37
looks pretty good to me. I just I'm not
00:46:39
saying he's going to.
00:46:40
>> Yeah, that's right.
00:46:42
Look, I think it's less likely he's
00:46:44
going to get the 500 home runs, but he
00:46:46
may damn well get the 3,000 hits. I
00:46:48
mean, he may go down in terms you go
00:46:51
back to and he's got a 300 lifetime
00:46:54
batting average
00:46:56
and these days 3,000 hits.
00:46:59
>> Yeah. I mean,
00:47:00
>> in a year, 500 home runs. And I think I
00:47:02
think just to give it perspective, I
00:47:05
mean um I think kind of you know
00:47:07
marginal hall of famers start kicking in
00:47:10
around like a war of 50 or so. A
00:47:12
cumulative career war 50. He's at
00:47:14
already at like 65
00:47:15
>> really.
00:47:16
>> Yeah. Yeah. He's already he's like at 65
00:47:18
war. I mean, you know, and so I I think
00:47:20
he's I I think I'm and I haven't checked
00:47:22
out like Jaffy's kind of specific hall
00:47:24
of fame kind of predictions, but I I
00:47:26
have to think he's a shoe it. I mean I
00:47:29
think whether he's like a first out Hall
00:47:30
of Famer will
00:47:33
when he goes up and who else is there,
00:47:35
right? I mean, I think he's not, you
00:47:36
know, he's
00:47:37
>> he's not like an automatic first ballot
00:47:39
kind of guy, I think, but like he's
00:47:41
definitely a Hall of Famer and I mean,
00:47:43
the postseason heroics, I mean, what if
00:47:44
what if this is only the beginning?
00:47:47
It's crazy. It could very well be. So,
00:47:50
let me ask you um one last you put
00:47:52
somewhere I think it was you probably
00:47:53
you that put in the rundown.
00:47:55
How is Max Scherzer? He's been on six
00:47:58
different postseason teams. Yes.
00:48:01
>> Isn't that worth something?
00:48:03
>> Yeah. No. No. I mean, I think so. I
00:48:05
mean, and again, you I mean, he I think
00:48:06
he pitched great last, you know, I mean,
00:48:08
he he he gave a gutsy performance last
00:48:10
night as well. No, I mean, I think
00:48:12
that's that that is incredible, but
00:48:13
yeah, he's a basically I mean, he's he's
00:48:15
been on a several kind of like, you
00:48:17
know, heroic trajectories like I mean,
00:48:19
back on the nationals and, you know,
00:48:21
>> did he win was he on the nationals team
00:48:22
that won?
00:48:23
>> Yes, he was.
00:48:24
>> Was that his only World Series title?
00:48:26
Uh, I'm trying to think if he was on the
00:48:29
Dodgers in 2020 or not. I Let me Let me
00:48:33
pull him up again here like just as
00:48:35
we're talking, but I I I I think he it
00:48:38
might be Oh, and the Rangers. Was he on
00:48:40
the Rangers when they won?
00:48:42
>> Because I think that might have been
00:48:43
that might have been also a a World
00:48:46
>> He's a two-time World Series champion.
00:48:48
2023.
00:48:50
>> Yep. Nationals and Rangers. So, yeah.
00:48:52
Yeah.
00:48:52
>> Wow.
00:48:53
>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, but it's three times
00:48:55
Sai Young award winner. I mean, well, we
00:48:58
we know Max Sh is a Hall of Famer. Yeah.
00:49:00
Know that that that his first ballot
00:49:01
unless there's something really wrong
00:49:03
with with what's what's going on at the
00:49:05
time.
00:49:05
>> Let me ask a question. Why do you think
00:49:09
I wouldn't have thought this about
00:49:10
baseball? So,
00:49:13
it's been
00:49:15
since 2000, I believe, where we've had a
00:49:18
repeat champion in baseball.
00:49:20
>> Yes. Okay. Remind me when's the last
00:49:24
time it happened in the NFL? The Chiefs
00:49:26
just recently, right? Yeah. The Chiefs.
00:49:28
>> Yeah.
00:49:29
>> Yeah. The Chiefs were two-time champs.
00:49:30
The Eagles just beat them. They would
00:49:31
have been three times.
00:49:32
>> Yeah. Well, I mean that that they they
00:49:33
they ended a streak that had been for
00:49:35
like
00:49:36
>> the NBA we've definitely had repeat
00:49:39
champions. I mean, the Heat were repeat
00:49:40
champions. The Warriors were repeat
00:49:42
champions. All of that kind of stuff.
00:49:43
>> We're in the middle of going in hockey.
00:49:45
>> In hockey, maybe we've had that
00:49:46
recently. I'm joking. Of course, we have
00:49:48
time repeat champion. the the the
00:49:51
Panthers right now. Why do you think in
00:49:54
baseball?
00:49:56
I wouldn't have if you would asked me to
00:49:58
guess which sport would be the hardest.
00:50:00
Well, I don't want to say of the four
00:50:02
major sports, forget what you know about
00:50:04
the data, which sport and why would you
00:50:07
have guessed that being a repeat
00:50:08
champion is the hardest? Like on what is
00:50:11
there a statistical basis of thinking
00:50:13
about it? Could be based on randomness.
00:50:14
It could be based on the coin flip
00:50:16
model. I'm just
00:50:17
>> Yeah. I mean, I guess the coin I I mean,
00:50:19
you know, I I I feel like baseball has
00:50:21
always seemed the most kind of coin
00:50:23
flippy in the I I think the structure of
00:50:25
baseball is such that the playoffs
00:50:27
selects heavily for good teams and which
00:50:30
makes you know the the the like you know
00:50:32
the the differences between the playoff
00:50:34
teams you know minimizes their disparity
00:50:36
and therefore is closest to the coin
00:50:38
flip model and so under the coin flip
00:50:40
model you should not coin flip model
00:50:41
plus expanded playoffs. That's another
00:50:44
factor right? So, one thing that has
00:50:46
happened in baseball structurally over
00:50:48
the last couple decades is they have
00:50:50
continued to expand or increase the
00:50:52
randomness of the the more coin
00:50:54
flippiness of the playoffs basically by
00:50:56
just expanding the number of rounds. And
00:50:58
so,
00:50:59
um with with short series, uh so I I I
00:51:02
think that's really what kind of leads
00:51:04
to it in baseball. I mean, I think it's
00:51:06
it's since you know the Yankees of 2000
00:51:09
some that there's been a repeat
00:51:11
champion. I think it's been since ' 09
00:51:12
that there's this is even like a team's
00:51:14
gone back to the World Series. The
00:51:16
Dodgers are the first time to go back to
00:51:17
the World Series. I think even
00:51:19
>> was the Phillies, right? The Phillies
00:51:20
were the back. Wow.
00:51:23
>> Yeah, that's remarkable. Yeah. I I I
00:51:26
guess it has to be. Let me ask a
00:51:27
question. Is is it is the reason you
00:51:29
think it's because of the Dodgers? It it
00:51:31
has to be their pitching, right? I
00:51:32
understand how great show is as a
00:51:34
hitter, but I mean they've got Yamamoto,
00:51:38
Otani, Blake Snell, and I don't even
00:51:41
know I apologize who their fourth
00:51:43
pitcher is.
00:51:43
>> Gas now is the one that pitched last
00:51:45
yesterday.
00:51:46
>> All right. Well, I mean Yeah. Yeah. No,
00:51:47
I that's right. And I I mean, Suzaki,
00:51:49
who is their big offseason signing, is
00:51:51
suddenly like this crazy good closer. I
00:51:53
do think outside, you know, outside of
00:51:55
Suzaki, their bullpen is to the extent
00:51:57
that they have a weakness, their
00:51:59
weakness. And so I think they're kind of
00:52:01
they are very much leaning successfully
00:52:04
on incredible starting pitcher. Again, I
00:52:06
mean Yamamoto has made their bullpen
00:52:08
moot that this last couple two two
00:52:10
complete game like victories. I mean
00:52:12
that's like that's like I is he he's
00:52:15
doing stuff that like we haven't seen
00:52:16
since like Madison Bumgardner or
00:52:17
something.
00:52:18
>> Before we move to the NFL, by the way,
00:52:19
just one point. I know you know this. Um
00:52:23
the total number of runs in the series,
00:52:25
the Blue Jays have more runs and more
00:52:26
hits by the way at this point in the
00:52:28
series. So, let's not seem like, by the
00:52:29
way, that the Blue Jays are getting
00:52:31
overwhelmed here. The Blue Jays are not
00:52:33
getting overwhelmed. And by the way,
00:52:34
>> I mean, Freddy Freeman doesn't hit that
00:52:36
home run. Guerrero hits it instead. We
00:52:37
We're probably talking I mean, we're
00:52:39
still talking
00:52:41
Guerrero.
00:52:42
>> No, a totally totally different
00:52:44
narrative. I agree with that. It'll be
00:52:45
exciting. Look, if somehow someway the
00:52:49
Blue Jays win tonight's game,
00:52:52
>> 22.
00:52:53
>> Yeah. No, I'm still I'm still full for I
00:52:56
mean, obviously, I'm kind of a Otani
00:52:58
fanboy, so I'd love to see him, you
00:52:59
know, be special again tonight. But, uh,
00:53:02
I'm still cheering for the Blue Jays in
00:53:04
this series. I hope they make it a long
00:53:05
one, and I hope it's, uh,
00:53:07
>> yeah, I I I I I hope I mean, it's been
00:53:09
magical already, so I mean, I just hope
00:53:11
we
00:53:13
>> So, let's let's spend the last five
00:53:14
minutes or so talking about the NFL.
00:53:16
>> What's caught your eye in the NFL?
00:53:19
>> Well, am I am I allowed to talk about
00:53:21
the Patriots and the fact that there's
00:53:22
>> talk about the Patriots? Let me ask you
00:53:23
a question. They I want to talk about
00:53:25
the Patriots specifically in the context
00:53:27
of FBI. I think I put in the rundown.
00:53:31
>> You know, I've been kind of looking at
00:53:32
it and I mean, we don't have to focus on
00:53:34
FBI specifically, but I have noticed
00:53:36
that, you know, the ranking system
00:53:38
certainly
00:53:40
FBI specifically have the Patriots like
00:53:42
like in the still in the bottom half or
00:53:44
near halfway point of the teams.
00:53:46
>> As you pointed out, I'm looking at it
00:53:47
right now. They have a lower FBI than
00:53:50
the Giants.
00:53:51
>> It's crazy. The only thing I can think
00:53:53
of is is scroll across and this is
00:53:56
certainly true and this is the mark
00:53:57
against the Patriots that prevents me
00:53:59
from getting too too excited is they
00:54:01
have the most cream puff schedule that
00:54:03
I've ever
00:54:05
like I mean
00:54:06
>> it's the easiest 32 and you know what
00:54:07
the remaining strength of schedule is
00:54:09
29.
00:54:10
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean they I mean
00:54:12
it it helps that they were one of the
00:54:13
worst teams in the NFL last year, right?
00:54:15
So I guess um and so the Giants for
00:54:18
example though also a bad schedule last
00:54:20
team last year have one of the hardest
00:54:22
schedules at least so far. So that's the
00:54:24
only thing that kind of would argue but
00:54:26
I mean I personally think I I I'd like
00:54:28
to hear your take. I mean I I get
00:54:31
waiting down waiting them because they
00:54:33
have had kind of a cream puff schedule.
00:54:35
Do you still feel like they like how
00:54:38
would you describe the Patriots playoff
00:54:40
team? Actual contending team
00:54:44
>> what do you think? Good question. So,
00:54:46
let me just focus, okay, on Oh, sorry.
00:54:49
Let me focus on here. Let me just focus
00:54:51
on uh their schedule and who they've
00:54:54
played. Okay. So, hold on a second here.
00:54:56
>> Yeah.
00:54:56
>> Bringing this up here. All right. So,
00:55:00
well, there's some good and some bad
00:55:02
here.
00:55:02
>> Well, I mean,
00:55:04
in terms of who they played, it's
00:55:05
basically the Bills and
00:55:07
>> No. Well, they lost to the Raiders to
00:55:09
start the season. Not good.
00:55:10
>> Yeah.
00:55:11
>> They beat the Dolphins. Probably not
00:55:12
worth much. They lost to the Steelers in
00:55:15
a close game. That's on a horrible loss.
00:55:17
Now, they beat the Panthers. Panthers
00:55:19
lost last week, but that's not a
00:55:21
horrible win. Obviously, winning at
00:55:23
Buffalo is worth a lot. They lost. They
00:55:26
beat the Saints. They stink. They beat
00:55:28
the Titans. They stink. And they beat
00:55:30
the Browns. They stink. Well, the Browns
00:55:32
defense doesn't stink, but whatever. No,
00:55:35
I mean I mean it's true that again, the
00:55:37
schedule has been and will continue. I
00:55:39
mean, again, they they they they do play
00:55:41
the Bills again and uh they play the
00:55:44
Ravens and the Ravens may have
00:55:46
>> and they play together.
00:55:47
>> Obviously, I may go to I'm still
00:55:49
deciding. They're at Buccaneers.
00:55:51
>> Yeah.
00:55:51
>> In two weeks.
00:55:52
>> Yeah. Know that that So, those are going
00:55:54
to be a few there's going to be a few
00:55:56
losses coming up the schedule, but I
00:55:58
feel like already at six and two,
00:56:00
they're
00:56:01
>> they'd have to really tank to not make
00:56:02
the playoffs at this. Look, they if they
00:56:05
in quotes, they should beat the Jets.
00:56:07
That's seven. They these are all home
00:56:09
games. They should be the Giants, that's
00:56:10
eight. They should beat the Jets again,
00:56:13
that's nine. They should beat the
00:56:14
Dolphins, that's 10. Then they're in the
00:56:15
playoffs. So they're a So here's my
00:56:17
view. They're a playoff team.
00:56:20
I think come the playoffs.
00:56:23
I do not think they can beat the Chiefs.
00:56:27
I do not think they can beat the Bills.
00:56:30
Other than that, nobody else in the AFC
00:56:33
impresses me that much that
00:56:36
>> you know who we haven't been talking
00:56:37
about at all. The Colts are the number
00:56:40
one team. You're
00:56:41
>> right. That's the other one I kind of
00:56:43
want to get your beat on is that I you
00:56:45
know it's it's kind of like the Colts
00:56:46
right now are I mean they're they're
00:56:48
shooting the moon. They're looking
00:56:49
great.
00:56:50
>> Do you remember that Steelers team that
00:56:52
went like 10 and0 a couple a few years
00:56:54
ago? Like absolutely
00:56:56
>> you know it it was over from there type
00:56:58
of thing. I I I feel like I can't that
00:57:01
the Indianapolis Colts have turned it
00:57:03
around too quickly and in kind of an
00:57:06
improbable way that like I can't buy
00:57:08
into them yet. And I I I I wonder
00:57:10
whether you have at all bought into them
00:57:12
yet. I mean, the Pats I haven't
00:57:13
incentive to buy into. That's a
00:57:14
different story.
00:57:15
>> You know, I can't believe yet.
00:57:18
>> Just to be just so I'm reminding myself,
00:57:20
Danny Dimes is their quarterback, right?
00:57:22
>> Well, we call him Indiana Jones now.
00:57:24
>> Sorry. Indiana Jones. Sorry. It was
00:57:26
Danny Dimes. Um, no. I still find it
00:57:29
hard to believe that a team led by
00:57:32
Daniel Jones is going to beat a team led
00:57:34
by Josh Allen or beat a team led by uh
00:57:37
Patrick Mahomes. No. I don't I But but
00:57:40
if you're asking me, are the Colts going
00:57:43
to be a tough out? Yes. Are the Patriots
00:57:47
going to be potentially a tough out?
00:57:49
Yes. Cuz here's what you know also about
00:57:51
the Patriots. Vable's teams, they're not
00:57:53
beating themselves. They may be worse
00:57:55
than the Chiefs. They may be worse than
00:57:56
the Colts. They may be worse than the
00:57:58
the the Chiefs Colts Bills. They're not
00:58:01
going to like turn the ball over four or
00:58:03
five times. Drake May is not going to
00:58:04
implode during the playoffs. None of
00:58:07
that stuff is actually going to happen.
00:58:09
So I No, I think the Patriots are a
00:58:11
playoff team. And no, I don't think this
00:58:13
is their year yet.
00:58:15
>> Yeah.
00:58:15
>> But it's amazing we're talking in this
00:58:18
way, though, because it was I mean, it
00:58:20
was a dark couple seasons, but it was
00:58:22
only a dark couple seasons.
00:58:24
>> No, no, no. I agree. Well, this has been
00:58:27
an hour here on the Wharton Podcast
00:58:29
Network. This has been an hour here on
00:58:31
Wharton Moneyball. On behalf of myself,
00:58:33
Eric Bradley, I'd like to thank my
00:58:34
co-host, Shane Jensen, who's been here
00:58:36
for the entire hour. I'd like to thank
00:58:37
Cade Massie, who was here, uh, and our
00:58:39
guest, uh, Bill Connley. Like to thank
00:58:41
our producer, Marissa Rena, I'd like to
00:58:42
thank our associate producer, sound
00:58:44
engineer, Dion Simkins. Between now and
00:58:47
next week, enjoy your sports, enjoy your
00:58:49
statistics. We'll see you next week here
00:58:51
on Wharton Moneyball.
