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Welcome, welcome to Wharton Moneyball. Welcome to a full hour of sports analytics here on the Wharton podcast
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network. This is Kade Massie hosting with three quarters of the co-hosts here. Two of my three co-hosts. Shane
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Jensen is in here and Eric Bradlo is also Shane from home and Eric from a couple floors above me. Eric and I are
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both in the office at the moment. Audi Winer is out doing Audi things which I believe are classroom related right now.
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He's down doing his job teaching Wharton students. He'll be back. Some combination of us are here almost every
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week of the year. Have been for more than 11 years now. Delighted to be here. We're recording on a Tuesday afternoon
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as we usually do. I believe we're right in that kind of narrow window of what
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Matty Dats used to call the sports equinox. All sports. Was it last night? Was it tonight? There's some day here
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where all four major North American sports are playing and there's only like
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one or two days where this is true. So, >> plus two baseball games for the price of
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one. >> Exactly. Well, for those of us who decided to spend our evening watching it
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perhaps, but we're going to leave a little baseball to the second half. God knows we can spend the whole half or
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even the whole show talking baseball with all that's going on with the Dodgers and Otani and that world. In the
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first half, we're going to do our usual thing, which is bring a guest in here.
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And it's been a little while. It's been a couple weeks anyway since we've talked
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football on the show. Um, so we grabbed one of our favorites to talk football with. We're going to talk college
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football this half hour with Bill Connley. Bill C is with us in the house from Columbia, Missouri. Bill Connley,
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good to see you. Thank you, man. >> Absolutely. We're uh what 2/ird of the
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way or so uh through the regular season here, but you know, there's still another six-month playoff after that.
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>> Well, happily, it's not six months, but it is a little bit of a stretch. And
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it'll go fast in the beginning, then kind of get slow at the end. But yeah, right. Four regular season games left
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for most teams, and that just seems absurd. I mean, that's that's really
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surprising. Um and we want to get caught up. I I have to admit a couple things. Um, I've had my head deeply into
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teaching the last few weeks, which has corresponded nicely with a particular team from Austin, Texas, not performing
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especially well. So, between the two, I'm less out of touch than I usually am
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on football. But, I got some questions for you, Bill. I want to start though with some praise. I' I've come to praise
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you, not to question you to to begin with. Bill, we've talked about this on the show. I think we should talk about
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it like every week. when when you're in our business, you understand that uncertainty is really important and it's
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hard to communicate and moreover, people don't want to hear about it. And so the
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whole question of how do you communicate the importance of uncertainty, the the the the impact of uncertainty, the
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underappreciated consequences of uncertainty. I think you're just trying to be a
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clever writer, but you've come up with this method this year, which I think is
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absolutely inspired. You in your preview columns every week. So, Bill C, y'all
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know this, Bill Connley writes for ESPN. He's got a brand new book out, we should
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say, Forward Progress come out this this fall on the future of college football.
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Bill's um we know a college football historian, but he's also apparently a
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college football futurist. He's going to merge these things and tell us where
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we're going. College Football: Forward Progress. Bill's a author of multiple
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books. Anyway, weekly columns previewing college football. In this column, he does this thing. I think he calls them
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chaos superfectas. Chaos superfect. Bill, if you haven't made t-shirts yet, please do and send me one. I want a Bill
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Connley Chaos superfecta t-shirt. This is the concept, guys. This is the concept. Get this. Every week,
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>> is it different than the concept that I've been talking about and dreaming, as
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you know, for 11 and a half years in college football? Like if only Boise State could win out and then there'd be
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a conf between [laughter] this is not the chaos super effective you're talking
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about. >> Each each Saturday has its specific chaos super. >> So Bill, I should shut up and tell us
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about your chaos super effective. >> This is actually so this is the second
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year I've been doing it and I should have quit after last year because it killed last year. But um the idea is
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basically you know take four games and mash them into what like four games where the
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spread is you know probably 7 10 14 points um and win probabilities generally end up being between about 72
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and 95 with my SP plus ratings. Uh mash them together and basically say hey there's only like a 43% chance that all
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four of these teams win. Um that way just I I I enjoyed it. I I basically replaced the picks section in my column
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each Friday with this which is so much better. Um, you know, I was agonizing over late late in the week uh spreads.
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All the good ones were gone. I was spending way too much time just to try to hit like 52% and the world didn't
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need a 9 millionth best bets section or column. So, I did something that was way
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that was very me instead. And yeah, basically said this I think this coming week is going to be Georgia Tech against
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Maryland, Texas Tech against Kansas State, Louisville against Virginia Tech, and Pit against Stanford. there's only a
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43% chance that all four of those teams win, which basically means we're getting
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an upset somewhere. Uh, somebody on is going to lose on the road and it's going
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to be fun. And that's my little way of reminding everybody that we're never
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that far away. We never completely know what's going on and we're never that far
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away from something chaotic happening. >> Exactly. He's reminding everybody that
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we don't know that even though each one of these by themselves, here's the
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thing. Each one of these feel by themselves like a more or less locked. In this case, it doesn't quite feel that
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way, but there these things are designed so that each one feels kind of like a lock, but people have a hard time
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understanding, but it's technically 75%. It's not a lock. It's 75 or it's 85% on
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the if you only give them one, it's hard for them to understand. But if you give
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them a portfolio and say, "Okay, guys, fine. Each one of them feels like a lock." But I'm telling you, there's a
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50-50 chance, and this is how Bill does it every week. Roughly 5050 chance that one of these favorites is going to go
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down because we put together a bundle of four. Now we can start understanding uncertainty better. So I just think it's
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freaking brilliant. >> Well, and last year I I overachieved big time. It got like 60 70% of the weeks
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where I hit at least one. >> Hold on. No, you're not supposed to do that. No, no, now you you that's not
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what you want. You want 50. You want exactly on the number or whatever. >> We're we're regressing to the mean this
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year. We started three and one this year, too. I'm like, "Oh my god, I am a
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genius." And now we've lost four out of five. So now we're at four and five for
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the season, which is basically where we should be. >> Right. Right. All right. So, does
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anybody else love this as much as we do? This is such a Wharton Munville concept.
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I mean, we I'm telling you, I want a t-shirt badly. But have you received any
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accolades or any appreciation for this thing at all? >> I I have definitely noticed that like
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two people asked where the pics went. Nobody's That's it in in a year and a
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half. Nobody's saying, "I really miss your pics." But they enjoy the chaos
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idea. >> Bill, I have a comment on this and then a question. The comment is I think
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people don't understand um you know I'll call it the probability of a and b and c and d is the product of
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those probabilities. So even if it was 75 75 to the 4th is about a quarter right. So that means the probability
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that all of those favorites are going to win is that um people don't understand
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what I call the probability of at least one upset is one minus the probability of no upsets. And so you do that math
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and you end up with typically not a very small number. There's a high probability
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of at least one upset. You know, the kind of what I call a group set probabilities. That was my comment, but
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then I was going to ask you a question. I always have a belief, but you're going
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to tell me I'm nuts. Like you listed four games. Let's assume they're not all
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being played at the same time. How nuts am I to think that upsets like this are independent are not
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independent? of each other. Like for all right, so Kate says I'm nuts. I always
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say that, you know what, I'll make it up. I'm the nine o'clock at 10:00 p.m.
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West Coast game, which is 7:00. I've se I'll make it up. I've seen someone beat
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Georgia Tech. This team beats this. Why aren't we next? Is there any evidence
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that there's not independence? Cade's saying no. Good. I I just have to ask
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push. My general push back would be that the game days are so hilariously involved.
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You know, we're on the bus at this time. Like, I mean, guys are going to have
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their phones here and there or whatever. Um, if if like there's a huge upset in
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the noon game and you're playing at 9:30, you probably know about the noon upset.
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>> Is that worth anything, Bill? Well, I think the very specific instance where I
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could see it maybe being where something would be like in a conference title race
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situation where um you need so and so to win at noon um for you to have a chance
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at 3:30 and now you know they're they were ahead when you went in there and maybe there's a little extra juice going
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on like okay we've got the chance in like in a specific scenario like that. Yes. But if it's like Georgia
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>> Technos let's listen to Bill here. Let's keep going. He's being he's being kind
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>> in a situation where it's like Georgia Tech lost at noon so we're playing Texas
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Tech at 7. We have a chance like that probably isn't the case but specific one
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result we need this to happen. I could see >> it's it is it is endlessly entertaining
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how our rigorous basian AI vice dean somehow periodically channels his inner I don't know 14year-old and decides that
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uh things like that >> we're all 14y olds. >> Well, we've got different varieties on
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that. That's true. Okay, Bill, let's talk one more question before we get to
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actual football. The coaching carousel is alive and well and as interesting as ever, if not more so, and I'm curious of
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of the many um open seats going around in this carousel or the various issues or connections or whatever, what most
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interests you, right? I I I was uh posting about this on social earlier um on Blue Sky actually
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like I think the most interesting thing to me is well to use my hometown team as an
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example like right now Eli Drinkitz is making he has a top 10 or 15 salary here at Missouri. He's rumored like he's
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going to be on Florida's list. He's going to be on LSU's list if Texas comes
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open. If so and so comes open like this could be an absolute nuts. He was on Penn State's list supposedly at first.
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He's on all these lists. he's going to get a huge raise this year. But if
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you're Missouri and your options are well, if you're you're going to try to keep him, you'll
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offer him a pretty healthy raise and suddenly you'll be paying like a top five, six, seven salary probably if he
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accepts it. But as a from a programmatic perspective, it's going to be really
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interesting with all these coaching hires. Some are going to go after the splash and and part of that is just, you
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know, that that athletic directors uh have to, you know, impress the big dumb money boosters by making a big dumb
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move. Like that's how you know you got to speak otherwise you'll get fired and
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you don't want to get fired. So, you're going to try to impress them uh by
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making a splash uh and paying a lot for a coach. Others are going to the idea is like would it be better for
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Missou's program if like if Drinkwis just if you if you're gonna have to pay
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him like $12 million a year to keep him is it better to pay him $12 million a year when you're not you know Texas or
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Ohio State or would it be basically say like man thanks for thanks for having do
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for the job you did go enjoy yourself at Florida we're going to hire an upand
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cominging offensive coordinator we're going to pay him $4 million a year we're
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going to plug that extra $12 million a year into uh NIL money for better recruits and better transfers and we're
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going to you can probably get six eight 10 really solid transfers for $8 million. Does that help your team more
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than the bird inhand good coach that you already have? And so that's going to be,
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you know, again, like every athletic director is going to try to keep their expensive coach, but you, you know, from
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from what we've seen, the teams that are at at the top of college football right
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now, most of them weren't hired as great successes elsewhere for a lot of money.
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Like, you know, maybe whether it's something you would aim to do or not, maybe it's better for a program to only
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pay $4 million a year and plug extra money into talent since you have to pay for talent now.
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>> Well, that's interesting. That's a it's a calculus that they haven't had in the
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past. So, it's it's kind of a new world in that respect. Bill, um absurd
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question, but kind of a fun way to think about it. If you had to go work as the head coach of either LSU, Florida, or
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Penn State, um setting aside where you want to live, but considering but considering all all
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factors, which is like you've got the recruiting hot beds, but you've also got
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maybe some crazy fan bases. Um which would you which situation would you rather walk into?
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Yeah, I immediately like food-wise LSU, [laughter] but >> of course you're going to choose food.
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>> Well, I do think um what what one of the things J that kind of blessed James Franklin ended up
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cursing him, but you know, being Big 10's a more topheavy conference. Um, and
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you know, we're seeing that this year, especially with Florida with Penn State
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kind of falling apart. Like Ohio State's going to get all the way to the end of
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the season without having played like a top 10 or 15 level team. >> Just note it's a 20point line this
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weekend. This was one of the biggest games of the year we look forward to. This was a top five on anybody's list
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game of the year, Ohio State, Penn State, and now it's a 20-point line. >> Yeah. and and obviously Indiana's better
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than expected in individual teams within the Big 10 are better than expected. But
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overall, like the even with the SEC not having any of I think the top four teams
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in my SP plus ratings, it's still like on average four points better than any
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other conference because it has all the depth. You just have more possible losses in the SEC. And we might find out
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that, you know, once a couple nine and three SEC teams get in, maybe um we think about this a little different, but
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the one year of the 12 team playoff, we know that the teams with the better records got in. Uh, and just on that
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alone, you would think that maybe Penn State, considering they're going to pay
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as much as anybody, you might have to travel further in your and add a little more travel into your
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recruiting budget, but I don't think, you know, James Franklin never really struggled to sign fourstar recruits.
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Feels like maybe that's the place to be. You're just more likely to have an extra
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win on the schedule and and get in. And of course, like I said, that ended up cursing James Franklin because he won
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all those games, but could never beat Ohio State. And the moment he started losing to to mortal teams, he was out
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the door. >> Well, you're naming another dynamic that's just new in college football.
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That is the between transfers, NIL, and realignment. The SEC is just an entirely
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different animal to navigate from an expected losses perspective. And the you said topheavy
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and you said, you know, and then the SK the scheduling vagaries means you've
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only got a couple teams you'd worry about and you likely won't have to play
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all of them. you some years won't have to play any of them. And the thing is if
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you miss those guys, the rest of your schedule looks like the ACC that that they literally if you look at the way
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anybody who ensembles power rankings, you've got three or four, maybe just three Big 10 teams that up there
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competing maybe even higher than the SEC, but then it's a vast Gulf and a bunch of those folks look they like the
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ACC. Okay, so you're going you're going to co to to um state college. Fine.
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Okay, now let's talk a little bit of football. Last weekend you had a big game. You had Vandy U Missouri and so
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you saw Vandy kind of up close in a way and they this week go to Texas. Texas has looked more or less wretched like
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they could they could just end up in the ditch any minute. They've been in the
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ditch and somehow miraculously come out of it a couple weeks in a row. They are one and a half point favorites. Eric,
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their fivestar supposed number one draft pick quarterback is in concussion protocol. Vandy's coming to town. They
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just knocked off Missouri and Longhorns are one and a half point favorites. Please explain this to me.
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>> Um, well, number one, Texas defense is awesome. Uh, that's the reason game last
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weekend against Mississippi State and the 400 something yards that they gave up on. Did you see that? I also I also
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saw the game before that when the Kentucky didn't score and Oklahoma didn't score and you know the Ohio State
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scored 14. Those those it all they're still what seventh nationally in points
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per drive. Um which granted isn't quite as good as I would have expected since
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they've only played really one like top 30 offense, but still good. The defense
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is good. I'm really curious about Vanny's offense. Um, you know, my buddy
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uh Bud Elliot and I used to talk a lot about co-variance within teams where like
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>> what huh? Are you flirting with us? Are you flirting with us, Bill? >> I knew this would be a good
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>> woke up. Are you kidding? Audi's going to be jealous. He missed the show.
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Covarian >> where basically some teams you have a Utah for example where they're going to
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crush teams with that have less talent than them. They just know like they're
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built their style is built around just absolutely devouring teams being more physical than them but they're less
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likely to you know they're they might underachieve against top five or 10 teams against projections whereas other
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teams are the exact opposite and can craft a game plan and you know play great South Carolina almost beats
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Alabama um but then you know stinks against lesser teams. So, you know, with Vanderbilt, I kind of get the inklings
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of a design to destroy bad defenses offense. And um you know, basically like they they they did well against LSU's
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defense, although LSU's defense went from elite to like has been significantly worse over these last few
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weeks. They scored 14 points on Alabama. Uh they scored 17 on Missouri and and seven of that came from a short field at
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the end. and they gained like 250 yards for the game, 260, something like that. Um, and Texas, like Texas and Missouri
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have pretty similar defenses, I think, but Texas has four and five star athletes everywhere you look and and
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Vanderbilt's not going to be able to really move them. So, I do kind of wonder about that aspect of things.
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Another thing is doesn't really matter if you play your backup quarterback if
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your first stringer stinks and you're not going to be punished much for that.
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I do think I think the line opened at three and a half. So maybe it came down a couple points to account for Arch
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Manning, but it is uh some amazing major Apple White uh potential situation here
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where the the the you know, Sims gets hurt and Apple White comes in and is great. Uh Matthew Caldwell has the world
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just at his disposal right now. >> Well, that's going to be fun. For those
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who don't know, Caldwell was like a fourthyear transfer brought in just to have somebody who wasn't fresh out of
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high school as a backup. His latest stop was Troy, I think. The small the other stops were smaller than that. You he
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comes in last week and throws a game-winning touchdown in overtime. Beautiful and audible into it at that.
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So, you know, good good start. Maybe it's the other, you know, we'll take the
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he doesn't have to be a complete progyny that Manning is. We'll take someone who,
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you know, can execute a few simple throws. Okay, fine. Eric's got his hand up there.
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>> So, I was going to talk about it since we're already on Vandy UT. I can make
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the same comment here as I would on the Ohio State Penn State game which you just talked about beforehand.
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You're someone, Bill, that cares as we all do about uncertainty. >> Is there any sim you think at the
00:19:13
beginning of the season that would have had Ohio State as a 20point favorite on Penn State? Do you think there's any sim
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at the beginning of the season that would have had Vandy favored against Texas? I'm just trying to use this as a
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general comment. Do we even massively underestimate uncertainty? Both these games make me think there's no sim where
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this would have been in in the distribution. It has been funny. I've been working with my buddy Justin Moore.
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He he runs a lot of the simulation stuff with me and um he like he'll he plugs so
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much uncertainty into when he's running like you conference title race, college
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football playoff forecast type of stuff. And so at the beginning of the year, I like I barely had any team in any
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conference with like a greater than 20% chance of winning the conference. And at
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first glance, I'm like, "Oh boy, I don't know about that." Um, and but the way
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things have played out, it's it's really I, you know, it it did a great job, I
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think, of of forecasting that uncertainty. And we're still in a period where there are only a couple
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conferences with even like 50% uh title odds, I think. Um, yeah. I mean, I think
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that's absolutely the Penn State situation. I mean, they've only fallen to like tw 18th or something in SP plus.
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And honestly, like everybody's making fun of that at the moment on social, but
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the last game uh it they played was against a really solid Iowa team. Uh, and the projection was like 24 1.5 to
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24.3 and the game was 2524 Iowa. Like, so of course they didn't fall after that
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game. They had a a blocked field goal return in there which helped. But I mean I think they're still a top 20 or 30
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team and uh you know if you're if you're I think you can account for that like if
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you're projected whatever Penn State was top three or so you've got to plug and
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they wouldn't have had as much uncertainty as other teams because they didn't hit the transfer portal as much.
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That was one of the ways we tried to bake it in like if you have 60 new guys then we're going to make up the huge
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error bar for you. Um, but they still I think you you you should be able to do that. We just ended up with some pretty
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wild outlier uh with between Clemson and Penn State especially. We had some pretty big outliers at the top.
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>> So Eric, it's such a good question, Eric. This just it emphasizes how your
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sim has to have enough uncertainty into it. And I think the world's slowly catching up to this. Early on when
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people were running sims, they'd get their power rankings in the top of the season. and they say Penn State's a 22
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and Florida State's an 18 and that's the number and all their sins would be based
00:21:40
on that number and everything else is just a coin flip on who you know but that's just crazy. I I feel like the
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Texas Vandy outcome is utterly within the realm of normal Sims Penn State is I mean I'm hearing Bill give a little pep
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talk here which is great but I mean that's a pretty big structural change to
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see those three losses. It would. Yeah, it ought to be in there because we've
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got 130 something teams and so you should see some extreme crops, but um it is extreme. Bill, another onfield
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question that I just continue to get a kick out of. I'm honestly curious. You
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watch more than me. You've been watching it more longer than I have, but I still
00:22:17
can't get used to like the USC Nebraska mid-season games. Like USC going to Lincoln. One of my favorite football
00:22:22
watching moments of this season so far was like a random afternoon I came in and popped down and watched USA in
00:22:28
Urbana Champagne. It was a great game, but it was just I got such a kick out of, you know, it's like a small stadium
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and here's USC playing in the middle of the Big 10. I I'm just not used to it.
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>> Yeah. At least with this one, we had the team of the 90s versus the team of the
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2000s. >> It's a helmet game. It's a major helmet game in the middle of November,
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>> right? >> Um yeah, this is one of the ones I guess they sold when uh when they were
00:22:48
convincing NBC to pay absurd amounts of money to air like Michigan State versus Purdue and prime time. Like they have a
00:22:55
couple like it's been a pretty bad year for them. But um I I'm not there is a
00:23:00
novelty to a lot of it. I I remember for for my book I talked to my friend Nam. He's a C a Cal fan. Uh and of course Cal
00:23:07
fans went nuts on the internet last year and a bunch of them traveled to Florida
00:23:11
State and you know all the places across the country and Cal did pretty well for
00:23:15
a while and they kind of tried to embrace the absolute absurdity of their schedule. Um and I think he went to
00:23:21
Boston for Boston College this year. bunch of Florida State fans were go we're were going out to to Cal like it's
00:23:27
all novelty stuff right now. >> Yeah. Right. >> But in 10 years when like h I'm not going back out to
00:23:34
Berkeley. I'm not going to this game. Like I I feel like the novelty is going
00:23:37
to wear off and there's just not going to be unless you just play a ton of ridiculous close wild games against each
00:23:43
other. That's kind of that's bonded Missouri and South Carolina to a certain
00:23:46
degree. They played a bunch of nutty games and therefore they're kind of rivals even though they're 15 hours
00:23:50
apart. Uh but even 15 hours isn't like 30 or whatever it would take to drive
00:23:56
from uh you know the Midwest to to USC. So I just I hate that aspect. It's just
00:24:02
it's a lot more fun when there are some road fans in the in and that aspect is
00:24:05
going to get is going to hurt I think moving forward even if you know at least we get a helmet game out of this.
00:24:10
>> Yeah. Right, Eric. >> So but I want to ask a question. If we looked at the pre-season rankings or
00:24:16
let's say FPI and now we're sitting here after whatever >> SP plus SP plus
00:24:22
>> SP plus sorry SP plus and we're sitting there we're looking at SP plus at the
00:24:26
beginning of the season and now or whatever 8 n whatever number of games in okay are there if if I had to ask you at
00:24:33
the beginning of the season how many teams would it take for Bill Connley to cover
00:24:41
80% 90% % of the probability of winning the national title. Are there more teams or less teams in your set
00:24:50
right now? >> Um, >> I'm ask It's okay. I'm just to make sure
00:24:56
my question again for our listener. Let's say at the beginning of the season, Bill thought there were 10 teams
00:25:00
needed to cover 90% of the probability to win the national title. Is that number bigger or smaller than 10 right
00:25:07
now? Has, in other words, has the season gone so anominously compared to the priors that it might actually, you might
00:25:14
say, well, of course, the posterior has to be smaller because we've learned so
00:25:19
much. But we might learn that we didn't actually know very much in our prior. So
00:25:23
that's why I'm asking, is it more teams or less teams? >> My my initial instinct was to say less
00:25:28
just because I think Ohio State's just been cruising in second gear and they're
00:25:31
going to hit the gas in the playoffs and destroy everybody. Um, and that'll get
00:25:35
me most of the way to 90% right there. Um, but that aside, if I'm looking at
00:25:39
the list, uh, just the current SB Plus rankings, like Georgia's 12th, and I could see them finding another gear. Uh,
00:25:47
Texas is 13th. I could I I don't think I can see them finding another gear, but
00:25:51
they have talent levels that could at least make it. So, I, you know, man, I don't know. Like, it it might
00:25:58
actually My initial reflex was less, but it might be a couple more now. um >> you know I think just because
00:26:04
>> I think it I think it might have gone down for a while right like the certainty might have gone down in the
00:26:09
first month of the season for sure >> right [clears throat] I don't know if
00:26:12
it's it's rebounded all the way but >> either way I think if that's true by
00:26:15
even if it's the same or or a little more I I don't know why I'm on a kick
00:26:19
lately about studying I it's not really formally this in the statistical sense
00:26:24
but most people would say you have a prior of course this is true you have a prior you collect data let's call that
00:26:29
the likelihood the regular season and then by the end you have a posterior and most people think information reduces
00:26:35
the posterior variance. So, we should have more certainty potentially on a smaller number of teams. And I'm looking
00:26:43
I'm actually studying problems like this in my home field of marketing now where
00:26:46
actually information comes in and you're less certain, not more certain. And if
00:26:51
this is true, I think this is great for sports. I don't think it's bad. I think
00:26:54
it's good. >> Eric, the property you need is that the information coming in is disagreeing
00:26:59
with the prior. >> That is correct. That is exactly correct. Well, speaking of priors, Bill,
00:27:04
I I hadn't thought about this, but I had thought about it since I've talked with
00:27:07
you last. You are you getting sufficient victory laps on the season? And on what
00:27:12
topics do you deserve victory laps? So, for example, I know you get them on Clemson. A lot of people lauded you
00:27:17
early on as they burned they crashed and burned early. So, that's number one
00:27:22
probably on the Bill Connelly victory lap for 2025 season. I think you should get one for Texas. You called out the
00:27:27
uncertainty around both QB and offensive line. offensive line is the real issue,
00:27:31
by the way. >> Yeah. >> Um and I and you were ear you were skeptical. You were longhorn skeptical
00:27:36
based on exactly those issues which have proven true. So I'm giving you victory
00:27:40
props for those. And and look, we get things wrong all the time preseason. So we should at least note when we get them
00:27:46
right. What else? What else is on the t-shirt? I'm making a t-shirt for you now. What's on the t-shirt for the 2025
00:27:51
victory lap for Connley? >> Well, I'm pretty sure having Ohio State projected number one is going to turn
00:27:57
out pretty well, too. Um, >> I hope you're ahead of yourself. >> I I hope I am too. Like I want a I want
00:28:02
a fun play out this year. Um, yeah, those are It is funny. One thing I've definitely learned this season is um,
00:28:08
you know, as far as what you get credit for, it's all about closest to the pen
00:28:11
because I still had Clemson projected tenth. [laughter] I was just lower than everybody else. Therefore, I was closest
00:28:18
to being therefore I I get a lot of credit for being skeptical. And and you're right. I mean, with Texas, um, my
00:28:25
whole line in the offseason was if Arch is anything but the best player in the country, massive uncertainty on the O
00:28:32
line and receiver and core sure could matter. And that it's mattered a massive
00:28:36
amount, >> but uh, but I still had them projected fifth rank in the team now.
00:28:41
>> So, um, th those were the big ones. Uh, just kind of looking through a lot of
00:28:44
the top rankings. I mean, Michigan is was a whiff, I think, to a certain degree. They weren't I didn't think they
00:28:50
were going to be top 10, so I disagreed with SP plus and I had Notre Dame pretty
00:28:54
high, which I think is still going to pay off pretty well. Um, you know, Penn State was a whiff obviously as well, but
00:29:00
no, I think Ohio State, Texas, and Clemson are the ones that um that that make them that that I I feel pretty good
00:29:05
about still. >> Brad, let's jump in here. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I I was just going to
00:29:09
ask you um do you think that um I I always like to ask these questions. So, you all you think Ohio State's obviously
00:29:17
a very good team. maybe one maybe the best team and you let's say you have some SP plus predicted championship win
00:29:24
probability and now I say oh wait I forgot to tell you Ryan Duke finally got off the schneide and won the title last
00:29:31
year is that worth anything to you >> um yeah I think so really um >> guys know I ask this question every time
00:29:41
it's not going to call momentum I'm just going to call it I've I've got this
00:29:45
additional piece of information that maybe you haven't factored into your model and I'm just asking you is that
00:29:51
worth anything? >> Well, so in my head it's worth something. To a to my model it's not.
00:29:56
Let's put it that way. Well, I mean >> it's baked in through their performance,
00:30:00
>> right? It's it's baked in through the fact that they played a bunch of good
00:30:03
teams and beat them soundly at the end of the year. Therefore, they ranked higher and therefore it carries forward.
00:30:08
But as far as just knowing that they won, in my head it means I can trust Ryan Day a little bit more. clear there
00:30:14
is no co-variant in your model that has has the coach won a national championship has the coach won a
00:30:20
national championship recently there could be and one could assess whether that's worth anything but at the moment
00:30:26
there is no factor like that in the model >> right just pure pure mental model but
00:30:31
not not S+ formula model >> but Bill's always been good um for years at at running his model sharing his
00:30:38
model results and then saying but I would judge it this way or that way like he recognizes that his if his if he was
00:30:44
going to write down his actual predictions, it would be based on the model, but it would be permuted in some
00:30:48
way. All right, Bill, we got to cut. >> Starts with the numbers and then >> Yeah, goes from there. Yeah,
00:30:53
>> we got to cut you out here, but I want to ask you um to help us uh look beyond
00:30:57
the obvious two conferences and maybe even beyond Well, let's beyond the obvious two conferences. Give us one of
00:31:04
your favorite storylines, hopefully one that's ongoing so we can still enjoy it
00:31:08
from outside of the SEC and Big 10. and let me constrain you from not going all the way off the edge into FCS. I know
00:31:14
you'd like to go into FCS, but let me constrain you to FBS for the time being
00:31:18
and just give us give us an additional story line. >> I I did have an answer ready to go about
00:31:23
Harvard there, but um [laughter] I my my model has been like third in the country
00:31:27
right now. >> I I I realize I'm not telling that to the right audience, but um no, honestly,
00:31:34
one of the most interesting stories both for the present and the future of the sport is Texas Tech, I think. Um, you
00:31:40
know, they made a big deal. Cody Campbell, Mr. Oil billionaire booster, um, you know, went out and got the best
00:31:47
softball pitcher in the country and they immediately went to the national title game last year. Can't remember who they
00:31:52
lost to in that national title game. >> I think it might have been one of my
00:31:55
favorite Longhorn sports watching moments of all time. >> Um, but but they still went from nothing
00:32:01
to national runner up. Then they went out and got a few more players this year. They're going to be dynamite this
00:32:06
year. But um he's basically trying to kind of openly break the model of the sport right now um by just throwing
00:32:14
millions of dollars of players. They have tons of like fivestar commits moving forward.
00:32:17
>> And facilities facilities, have you seen the hype video around those facilities?
00:32:20
It's incredible. >> We're I'm I'm happy we haven't lost that
00:32:24
just because we have to pay players. We're still going to make facilities that are 38 times too good uh for what
00:32:29
they're needed. But they went out and he they made a big deal about getting the most expensive
00:32:35
transfer class in the country. I wasn't completely sure how much it was going to
00:32:38
fix their defense. Their defense is phenomenal. And basically, if they can keep their
00:32:43
quarterback healthy, which they haven't been able to do, their backups hurt now,
00:32:46
but I think their starters back to being able to play. They're fourth in SP plus uh despite
00:32:52
having missed their uh their starting quarterback the last two weeks. Like they have really really clicked. And I
00:32:58
think if you know I am very much worried about the way the SEC and Big 10 have basically arranged to hoard all the
00:33:03
money from the future of the sport uh and the playoff and all that and Texas Tech coming in here and just trying to
00:33:09
break things and make people react is I I can't guarantee that'll produce a good
00:33:13
reaction or if it's something I like but I I like that they're trying it. I think
00:33:18
and and they're really really really good and fast this year. >> Good good fun. They have a big game this
00:33:22
weekend. Kate, one of the early um preseason Big 12 favorites or >> they're smoking hot too. So, I said all
00:33:28
this and now they're going to lose to Kate State. >> Exactly. Bill I Bill said in this week's
00:33:32
review that Kate was really on the come after having really had a early season bumps, but they they have a good program
00:33:39
and it should be an interesting game this weekend. Bill, we've kept you longer than we meant to. Always
00:33:43
enjoyable to talk to you, Bill Connley. Y'all chasing down ESPN um ESPN Bill C
00:33:48
on Twitter. It's probably looking pretty similar on Blue Sky, I'm guessing. But
00:33:52
you can see Bill lots of places and buy his book, Forward Progress: The Future of College Football just out this fall.
00:33:59
>> Absolutely. >> Thank you, Bill. >> Take care, guys. >> That's been the first half of Wharton
00:34:03
Moneyball. Come back and join us after the break. >> Welcome back. Welcome back to the
00:34:07
Wharton podcast network and Wharton Moneyball. This is Eric Bradlo, professor of marketing, statistics, and
00:34:12
data science. and I'm here with my co-host, longtime friend, co-graduate school classmate, although years apart,
00:34:19
professor of statistics and data science, Shane Jensen. Uh this is the second half of the show. Uh we just had
00:34:25
Kade Massie leading us with Bill Connley of ESPN and SP Plus talking about college football and what surprised him.
00:34:33
But now, uh Shane, we have to move on to the open, if you'd like, line segment of
00:34:38
the show. Of course, one of the topics I know we want to talk about is baseball.
00:34:41
But before we get to what caught your eye in last night's game or baseball more generally, um I had turned off the
00:34:47
game in the seventh inning. I was sound asleep and then my two West Coast sons, the phone rings at 1:00 in the morning.
00:34:54
Of course, I'm panicking like, "What is it? What is it?" Goes, "Dad, you're
00:34:56
never going to believe it." In the 13th inning, you got to put on the game and
00:34:59
watch the rest of it. >> So, I did watch innings 13 through 18, by the way, uh thanks to Ethan and Zack
00:35:05
Bradlo. But, um what caught your eye in the game? There's lots of things, but
00:35:10
I'd love to hear or just more broadly about what's happening in baseball.
00:35:14
>> Well, what a couple things that caught my eye specifically about that game, and
00:35:18
this is one thing for the game in general. It's pretty cool. Like there the in 2018, the World Series game three
00:35:24
also went 18 innings. They're the two longest games in World Series history.
00:35:29
The one in 2018 took 7 hours and 20 minutes. The one last night was 6 hours and 40 minutes, basically. So the pitch
00:35:37
cl we we've got kind of a a nice little like control experiment for the >> Let me ask a question. I know just to
00:35:43
really control. Do you happen to know what was the score in that game? Like was there more scoring, less scoring?
00:35:48
Was >> I don't I don't I'm not sure I have in front of it, but the No. Uh well the
00:35:52
this game actually the one last night had 600 Here's here's one kind of proxy.
00:35:57
The one last night had 609 pitches versus only 561 pitches in the one in 2018. So the one last night actually had
00:36:04
more pitches. >> All right. So now I love that because actually to me that might be an even
00:36:08
greater proxy. Although I do agree number of pitches, hard to imagine more pitchers than last night's game because
00:36:14
I think you know I was about to go in and pitch. My son was about to drive down who lives in LA was about to drive
00:36:18
down to Dodger Stadium and see if they needed an arm. But >> well you I don't know and the one of the
00:36:23
other things that I noticed about the game last night before we get to show is Yamamoto has pitched two complete games
00:36:30
in this playoffs and was was warming up in the bullpen last night. two days after pitch. Let me ask your opinion
00:36:37
about that. As you know, if Yamamoto uh he had pitched two days ago. >> Yeah. A complete game,
00:36:44
>> right? He would he would normally do some throwing today anyway. So, do you
00:36:49
see it that different than let's imagine his throwing day is 40 50 pitches, whatever it is. So, why don't you just
00:36:56
why can't he just come into the game and throw 40 or 50 pitches? >> I mean, you I mean, I guess I'm not a
00:37:01
I'm not a pitcher, so I don't know. I would assume that whatever kind of
00:37:05
bullpen regime he has, >> he's not throwing high 90s to let it rip. >> Not in the kind of intense environment
00:37:12
where he's still facing like Guerrero Jr. and stuff like that. So, no, I I I
00:37:17
don't think I I don't think it would be an analogous simulated game. I mean, I
00:37:21
think it's certainly the other the other situation is like, you know, he's got to
00:37:26
if he comes in, he's got to get through three batters, right? It's not like you
00:37:30
can kindly suddenly like, you know, >> let me ask you a question about that.
00:37:34
Let me ask you a question. So, this is an interesting trade-off. Let's suppose
00:37:40
that Yamamoto did have to come in. Okay? And let's imagine we believe he's a good
00:37:45
pitcher. Not a bad thing to assume, right? Let's imagine it increases their win probability in this game by some
00:37:53
number, but it for some reason it also decreases their win probability in game five, let's say, which is which is what
00:38:00
he would have pitched. How do you think about that mathematics? Like in other words, while you gain, you might also,
00:38:08
we have no, by the way, we have no evidence that it would lower the probability for game five, but we could
00:38:13
hypothesize it might. How would you think about that? I I don't know how I would
00:38:17
>> as a manager. I think I'd go >> immediate benefit at all, you know, type
00:38:22
of thing. Like I think you kind of have to go. I mean, because the hypothetical like game five or six, the world could
00:38:28
change between now and then. >> It might never happen. >> Yeah. It might never happen. You may
00:38:32
not, you know, you never may get to realize that game six or seven benefit. No. And I And I think he it would be
00:38:38
like game six or seven he'd be lined up. He would >> It's also a discreet outcome, as you're
00:38:42
pointing out, which is they're now up two to one. I mean, that's a big difference than being down two to one. I
00:38:50
mean, it's a big difference. >> Yeah. No, it was I mean, especially like
00:38:53
after that. I mean, we'll see what happens tonight with Shi on the mound after
00:38:59
going nine for like getting on base nine times last night. Well, let me ask you a
00:39:06
question about that record, by the way. >> Yeah, I know. Tied a record. Yep. Tied a
00:39:09
record. >> Well, I mean, record in the postseason. >> No, I think it tied a record. I saw
00:39:14
Antonio I mean the previous on the screen >> the previous times it's ever happened in
00:39:18
a baseball game all in like the pre9 in the 1940s or earlier >> the previous like I think it the
00:39:26
postseason record is eight I think the >> oh I thought it was nine I thought he
00:39:31
had match >> and the uh World Series record prior to last night was six. >> Okay, but let me ask you another
00:39:36
question. >> Crazy. Is there any way in your mind that this 18 ining game yesterday
00:39:45
affects his pitching ability? >> Yeah. No, I mean I I you'd think it would, right? I mean, I don't know. I
00:39:51
mean, maybe he's again, he continues to exhibit superhuman powers. So, I I I I I
00:39:57
can only project what me as a human would experience, but I feel like yes, having to play an 18 inning game and
00:40:04
then go out and pitch the next day would definitely I feel like affect your performance.
00:40:10
So, I mean, I think that that's an extra element of of course. I mean, they couldn't take him out
00:40:16
because he was an automatic on base. I I mean like you can't I can't you can't
00:40:20
pull him out of the lineup when he's getting on base every time he goes up but you know they must have been I I yes
00:40:28
I I think it does it could have a dramatic effect today that said he continues to defy expectations so
00:40:35
question so now he's had I mean this game obviously extraordinary memorable nine times on base he obviously had the
00:40:41
what was it three homer game three homer and 10 strikeout game >> right three homer and 10 strikeout game.
00:40:48
How much does his level of, let's call it, three sigma, four sigma performances, I mean,
00:40:56
these are some of the greatest performances in any baseball game ever. How much does it
00:41:03
change your view of him like where he ranks in kind of all time now? >> I actually do. I I think he might be the
00:41:12
greatest baseball player of all time, which is kind of a crazy thing to say. Now, just to be clear,
00:41:18
>> do not believe I think I agree. I think you're going to agree with what I'm
00:41:20
about to say. >> We can have a debate. Let's take tennis just for one second or football for one
00:41:26
second. We can debate maybe maybe whether NovakJokovic is the greatest tennis player of all time, but he's
00:41:34
certainly the most accomplished tennis player of all time. Somebody might want to debate whether there was some tiny
00:41:39
stretch of their time that was um somebody was better than Tom Brady, but certainly Tom Brady by far is the most
00:41:49
accomplished football player of all time. You're not saying that you think Show is the most accomplished baseball
00:41:56
player of all time. You just I mean >> Yeah. Like I mean like you know on like
00:42:02
some cumulative weather measure of overall performance. I mean, somebody like B, I I think it's got to still be
00:42:08
Dave Ruth. I I just I think, you know, show is doing something that nobody in the sport has ever done before. And it's
00:42:17
kind of reim I I mean, you sort of said it to me, it's kind of it is inspiring.
00:42:22
It's reimagining the sport to me like like like he is he really like an absolute unicorn? we'll never see it
00:42:30
again. Or or or are we looking at like a situation where like a generation from now there's multiple like there's there
00:42:37
there's two-way players like often on the field or something like that. What
00:42:42
if he what if this is like you know he he he could actually end up inspiring like a change in the sport or maybe he's
00:42:49
just that he's like six sigma or whatever it is off the chain and and uh we'll never see something like it again.
00:42:56
But it's it is kind of um let me ask a question. I think kind of uniqueness is
00:43:00
the kind of proxy or or or construct on which I think he's the greatest of all
00:43:05
time. Cumulative achievement obviously. >> In other words, there's a multi-dimensional you're now taking two
00:43:11
dimensions by which you could make an argument. Well, let me ask you a question before I make my statement. I
00:43:19
think you would agree, but tell me if I'm wrong, that he's farther in the tail
00:43:23
as a hitter than he is as a pitcher. or you wouldn't agree to that? >> Yes. Yes, that's right. I mean, if you
00:43:30
if you kind of kind of consider them two separate people. I mean, yeah, that's
00:43:33
right. >> If you consider them two separate He's like uh he's like a top five hitter in
00:43:38
baseball or maybe like a top 10 or 15 pitcher in baseball. >> Yeah, that's what I was That's what I
00:43:44
was asking or at least certainly how he's pitched the last year. >> Yeah. So am I to get to look and the
00:43:50
other stat I saw which I know you saw in his last seven at bats remember walks don't count as official at bats he has
00:43:56
five home runs and two doubles. I mean I've never seen I've never se I mean look he has to go down look as you
00:44:06
know obviously everyone on the show knows I'm a Yankee fan. He has to be Mr.
00:44:10
October. >> Yeah. Yeah. And I I mean it's kind of crazy. It's like, you know, it's and and
00:44:16
then in the midst of all that, you somehow forget about what Freddy Freeman's doing.
00:44:21
>> I was going to ask you, I was like also like just like clutch home run after
00:44:25
clutch. >> I don't know if you I actually went in this World Series cheering for the Blue
00:44:28
Jays if you believe it. >> And I I was rooting for the Blue Jays while you're Canadian at some I
00:44:34
understand you're not from Toronto. I got it that you know that might as well
00:44:37
be the other part of the world for where you >> Yeah. I mean, normally in the AL East,
00:44:40
I'm not I don't find myself cheering for him during the course of the season all
00:44:44
that often. Anyway, fun story, but like I mean, you know what the Dodgers doing and and again, it's hard not to kind of
00:44:50
just get wrapped up in the drama of um Freeman. Anyway, I think I interrupted you with about Freddy.
00:44:56
>> No, no, no, no, no. What I was going to say was I just saw I I'm sure you saw
00:45:00
this stat about Freddy Freeman. I actually I was surprised by this. He's the only player in Major League Baseball
00:45:06
history with two walk-off home runs in the World Series. >> Yeah, that's interesting.
00:45:12
>> I'd never seen that. I mean, obviously >> I I'd heard I think like if you expand
00:45:16
that to postseason, I like >> four or five like I then you've got like
00:45:21
Ortiz and Pooh Holes and I think maybe Jeter, too. I'm not sure. like there's a
00:45:24
few others that have done it over the opposition. It is you give some weird cuts of the
00:45:30
data when you restrict yourself specifically the World Series. But you you'd think even like in you know all
00:45:35
those decades where the Yankees were destroying you know balls that that would have happened before as well.
00:45:43
>> Yeah. Can you remind our listeners on here on uh Wharton Moneyball uh the
00:45:48
Jensen stats for the Hall of Fame and how as cuz we're talking about Freddy Freeman. I just wanted to know remind me
00:45:55
like roughly if you remember how many hits, how many home runs kind of what gets you into the Hall of Fame. You
00:46:01
remember to keep things as the same basic fraction of players as it is now. >> Yeah, I believe it's 350 home runs or
00:46:08
2500 hits I believe. >> Okay. Well, just to be clear, >> I'll check that as we're talking. knew
00:46:12
it was 2500 hits. It could have been 350 home runs. So, you agree with me? >> He's a Hall of Famer now. And by the
00:46:20
way, there's an outside chance he could join the Elite 500 home run, 30,000 hit club. He has 2400 and
00:46:30
something hits, 369 home runs. He's 36. He plays four more seasons, which yeah,
00:46:37
looks pretty good to me. I just I'm not saying he's going to. >> Yeah, that's right.
00:46:42
Look, I think it's less likely he's going to get the 500 home runs, but he
00:46:46
may damn well get the 3,000 hits. I mean, he may go down in terms you go back to and he's got a 300 lifetime
00:46:54
batting average and these days 3,000 hits. >> Yeah. I mean, >> in a year, 500 home runs. And I think I
00:47:02
think just to give it perspective, I mean um I think kind of you know marginal hall of famers start kicking in
00:47:10
around like a war of 50 or so. A cumulative career war 50. He's at already at like 65
00:47:15
>> really. >> Yeah. Yeah. He's already he's like at 65 war. I mean, you know, and so I I think
00:47:20
he's I I think I'm and I haven't checked out like Jaffy's kind of specific hall
00:47:24
of fame kind of predictions, but I I have to think he's a shoe it. I mean I think whether he's like a first out Hall
00:47:30
of Famer will when he goes up and who else is there, right? I mean, I think he's not, you
00:47:36
know, he's >> he's not like an automatic first ballot kind of guy, I think, but like he's
00:47:41
definitely a Hall of Famer and I mean, the postseason heroics, I mean, what if what if this is only the beginning?
00:47:47
It's crazy. It could very well be. So, let me ask you um one last you put somewhere I think it was you probably
00:47:53
you that put in the rundown. How is Max Scherzer? He's been on six different postseason teams. Yes.
00:48:01
>> Isn't that worth something? >> Yeah. No. No. I mean, I think so. I
00:48:05
mean, and again, you I mean, he I think he pitched great last, you know, I mean,
00:48:08
he he he gave a gutsy performance last night as well. No, I mean, I think that's that that is incredible, but
00:48:13
yeah, he's a basically I mean, he's he's been on a several kind of like, you
00:48:17
know, heroic trajectories like I mean, back on the nationals and, you know, >> did he win was he on the nationals team
00:48:22
that won? >> Yes, he was. >> Was that his only World Series title? Uh, I'm trying to think if he was on the
00:48:29
Dodgers in 2020 or not. I Let me Let me pull him up again here like just as we're talking, but I I I I think he it
00:48:38
might be Oh, and the Rangers. Was he on the Rangers when they won? >> Because I think that might have been
00:48:43
that might have been also a a World >> He's a two-time World Series champion.
00:48:48
2023. >> Yep. Nationals and Rangers. So, yeah. Yeah. >> Wow. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, but it's three times
00:48:55
Sai Young award winner. I mean, well, we we know Max Sh is a Hall of Famer. Yeah.
00:49:00
Know that that that his first ballot unless there's something really wrong with with what's what's going on at the
00:49:05
time. >> Let me ask a question. Why do you think I wouldn't have thought this about
00:49:10
baseball? So, it's been since 2000, I believe, where we've had a repeat champion in baseball.
00:49:20
>> Yes. Okay. Remind me when's the last time it happened in the NFL? The Chiefs
00:49:26
just recently, right? Yeah. The Chiefs. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. The Chiefs were two-time champs.
00:49:30
The Eagles just beat them. They would have been three times. >> Yeah. Well, I mean that that they they
00:49:33
they ended a streak that had been for like >> the NBA we've definitely had repeat
00:49:39
champions. I mean, the Heat were repeat champions. The Warriors were repeat champions. All of that kind of stuff.
00:49:43
>> We're in the middle of going in hockey. >> In hockey, maybe we've had that
00:49:46
recently. I'm joking. Of course, we have time repeat champion. the the the Panthers right now. Why do you think in
00:49:54
baseball? I wouldn't have if you would asked me to guess which sport would be the hardest.
00:50:00
Well, I don't want to say of the four major sports, forget what you know about
00:50:04
the data, which sport and why would you have guessed that being a repeat champion is the hardest? Like on what is
00:50:11
there a statistical basis of thinking about it? Could be based on randomness. It could be based on the coin flip
00:50:16
model. I'm just >> Yeah. I mean, I guess the coin I I mean, you know, I I I feel like baseball has
00:50:21
always seemed the most kind of coin flippy in the I I think the structure of baseball is such that the playoffs
00:50:27
selects heavily for good teams and which makes you know the the the like you know
00:50:32
the the differences between the playoff teams you know minimizes their disparity
00:50:36
and therefore is closest to the coin flip model and so under the coin flip model you should not coin flip model
00:50:41
plus expanded playoffs. That's another factor right? So, one thing that has happened in baseball structurally over
00:50:48
the last couple decades is they have continued to expand or increase the randomness of the the more coin
00:50:54
flippiness of the playoffs basically by just expanding the number of rounds. And
00:50:58
so, um with with short series, uh so I I I think that's really what kind of leads
00:51:04
to it in baseball. I mean, I think it's it's since you know the Yankees of 2000
00:51:09
some that there's been a repeat champion. I think it's been since ' 09
00:51:12
that there's this is even like a team's gone back to the World Series. The
00:51:16
Dodgers are the first time to go back to the World Series. I think even >> was the Phillies, right? The Phillies
00:51:20
were the back. Wow. >> Yeah, that's remarkable. Yeah. I I I guess it has to be. Let me ask a
00:51:27
question. Is is it is the reason you think it's because of the Dodgers? It it
00:51:31
has to be their pitching, right? I understand how great show is as a hitter, but I mean they've got Yamamoto,
00:51:38
Otani, Blake Snell, and I don't even know I apologize who their fourth pitcher is.
00:51:43
>> Gas now is the one that pitched last yesterday. >> All right. Well, I mean Yeah. Yeah. No,
00:51:47
I that's right. And I I mean, Suzaki, who is their big offseason signing, is
00:51:51
suddenly like this crazy good closer. I do think outside, you know, outside of Suzaki, their bullpen is to the extent
00:51:57
that they have a weakness, their weakness. And so I think they're kind of they are very much leaning successfully
00:52:04
on incredible starting pitcher. Again, I mean Yamamoto has made their bullpen moot that this last couple two two
00:52:10
complete game like victories. I mean that's like that's like I is he he's
00:52:15
doing stuff that like we haven't seen since like Madison Bumgardner or something.
00:52:18
>> Before we move to the NFL, by the way, just one point. I know you know this. Um
00:52:23
the total number of runs in the series, the Blue Jays have more runs and more hits by the way at this point in the
00:52:28
series. So, let's not seem like, by the way, that the Blue Jays are getting overwhelmed here. The Blue Jays are not
00:52:33
getting overwhelmed. And by the way, >> I mean, Freddy Freeman doesn't hit that
00:52:36
home run. Guerrero hits it instead. We We're probably talking I mean, we're
00:52:39
still talking Guerrero. >> No, a totally totally different narrative. I agree with that. It'll be
00:52:45
exciting. Look, if somehow someway the Blue Jays win tonight's game, >> 22.
00:52:53
>> Yeah. No, I'm still I'm still full for I mean, obviously, I'm kind of a Otani
00:52:58
fanboy, so I'd love to see him, you know, be special again tonight. But, uh,
00:53:02
I'm still cheering for the Blue Jays in this series. I hope they make it a long
00:53:05
one, and I hope it's, uh, >> yeah, I I I I I hope I mean, it's been
00:53:09
magical already, so I mean, I just hope we >> So, let's let's spend the last five
00:53:14
minutes or so talking about the NFL. >> What's caught your eye in the NFL?
00:53:19
>> Well, am I am I allowed to talk about the Patriots and the fact that there's
00:53:22
>> talk about the Patriots? Let me ask you a question. They I want to talk about
00:53:25
the Patriots specifically in the context of FBI. I think I put in the rundown. >> You know, I've been kind of looking at
00:53:32
it and I mean, we don't have to focus on FBI specifically, but I have noticed
00:53:36
that, you know, the ranking system certainly FBI specifically have the Patriots like
00:53:42
like in the still in the bottom half or near halfway point of the teams. >> As you pointed out, I'm looking at it
00:53:47
right now. They have a lower FBI than the Giants. >> It's crazy. The only thing I can think
00:53:53
of is is scroll across and this is certainly true and this is the mark against the Patriots that prevents me
00:53:59
from getting too too excited is they have the most cream puff schedule that I've ever
00:54:05
like I mean >> it's the easiest 32 and you know what the remaining strength of schedule is
00:54:09
29. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean they I mean it it helps that they were one of the
00:54:13
worst teams in the NFL last year, right? So I guess um and so the Giants for example though also a bad schedule last
00:54:20
team last year have one of the hardest schedules at least so far. So that's the
00:54:24
only thing that kind of would argue but I mean I personally think I I I'd like
00:54:28
to hear your take. I mean I I get waiting down waiting them because they have had kind of a cream puff schedule.
00:54:35
Do you still feel like they like how would you describe the Patriots playoff team? Actual contending team
00:54:44
>> what do you think? Good question. So, let me just focus, okay, on Oh, sorry.
00:54:49
Let me focus on here. Let me just focus on uh their schedule and who they've
00:54:54
played. Okay. So, hold on a second here. >> Yeah. >> Bringing this up here. All right. So,
00:55:00
well, there's some good and some bad here. >> Well, I mean, in terms of who they played, it's
00:55:05
basically the Bills and >> No. Well, they lost to the Raiders to start the season. Not good.
00:55:10
>> Yeah. >> They beat the Dolphins. Probably not worth much. They lost to the Steelers in
00:55:15
a close game. That's on a horrible loss. Now, they beat the Panthers. Panthers
00:55:19
lost last week, but that's not a horrible win. Obviously, winning at Buffalo is worth a lot. They lost. They
00:55:26
beat the Saints. They stink. They beat the Titans. They stink. And they beat the Browns. They stink. Well, the Browns
00:55:32
defense doesn't stink, but whatever. No, I mean I mean it's true that again, the
00:55:37
schedule has been and will continue. I mean, again, they they they they do play the Bills again and uh they play the
00:55:44
Ravens and the Ravens may have >> and they play together. >> Obviously, I may go to I'm still
00:55:49
deciding. They're at Buccaneers. >> Yeah. >> In two weeks. >> Yeah. Know that that So, those are going
00:55:54
to be a few there's going to be a few losses coming up the schedule, but I feel like already at six and two,
00:56:00
they're >> they'd have to really tank to not make the playoffs at this. Look, they if they
00:56:05
in quotes, they should beat the Jets. That's seven. They these are all home games. They should be the Giants, that's
00:56:10
eight. They should beat the Jets again, that's nine. They should beat the Dolphins, that's 10. Then they're in the
00:56:15
playoffs. So they're a So here's my view. They're a playoff team. I think come the playoffs.
00:56:23
I do not think they can beat the Chiefs. I do not think they can beat the Bills.
00:56:30
Other than that, nobody else in the AFC impresses me that much that >> you know who we haven't been talking
00:56:37
about at all. The Colts are the number one team. You're >> right. That's the other one I kind of
00:56:43
want to get your beat on is that I you know it's it's kind of like the Colts
00:56:46
right now are I mean they're they're shooting the moon. They're looking
00:56:49
great. >> Do you remember that Steelers team that went like 10 and0 a couple a few years
00:56:54
ago? Like absolutely >> you know it it was over from there type of thing. I I I feel like I can't that
00:57:01
the Indianapolis Colts have turned it around too quickly and in kind of an improbable way that like I can't buy
00:57:08
into them yet. And I I I I wonder whether you have at all bought into them yet. I mean, the Pats I haven't
00:57:13
incentive to buy into. That's a different story. >> You know, I can't believe yet.
00:57:18
>> Just to be just so I'm reminding myself, Danny Dimes is their quarterback, right?
00:57:22
>> Well, we call him Indiana Jones now. >> Sorry. Indiana Jones. Sorry. It was
00:57:26
Danny Dimes. Um, no. I still find it hard to believe that a team led by Daniel Jones is going to beat a team led
00:57:34
by Josh Allen or beat a team led by uh Patrick Mahomes. No. I don't I But but
00:57:40
if you're asking me, are the Colts going to be a tough out? Yes. Are the Patriots
00:57:47
going to be potentially a tough out? Yes. Cuz here's what you know also about
00:57:51
the Patriots. Vable's teams, they're not beating themselves. They may be worse
00:57:55
than the Chiefs. They may be worse than the Colts. They may be worse than the the the Chiefs Colts Bills. They're not
00:58:01
going to like turn the ball over four or five times. Drake May is not going to implode during the playoffs. None of
00:58:07
that stuff is actually going to happen. So I No, I think the Patriots are a playoff team. And no, I don't think this
00:58:13
is their year yet. >> Yeah. >> But it's amazing we're talking in this
00:58:18
way, though, because it was I mean, it was a dark couple seasons, but it was only a dark couple seasons.
00:58:24
>> No, no, no. I agree. Well, this has been an hour here on the Wharton Podcast
00:58:29
Network. This has been an hour here on Wharton Moneyball. On behalf of myself, Eric Bradley, I'd like to thank my
00:58:34
co-host, Shane Jensen, who's been here for the entire hour. I'd like to thank
00:58:37
Cade Massie, who was here, uh, and our guest, uh, Bill Connley. Like to thank our producer, Marissa Rena, I'd like to
00:58:42
thank our associate producer, sound engineer, Dion Simkins. Between now and next week, enjoy your sports, enjoy your
00:58:49
statistics. We'll see you next week here on Wharton Moneyball.