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All right, everybody. Chamath is here. I'm here. Freeberg's here. But Saxi
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Pooh, he was up late at the White House. We'll show some pictures later. He couldn't make it today. But let's get
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started. We wanted to get you a show and we wanted to get it to you on time for your weekend. Let's start with Michael Burin short. So, you guys know obviously
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Michael Bur, he's the capital allocator from the big short and uh he just dregistered his firm with the SEC. He
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made a big bet against AI and Palunteer. He disclosed the shorts against Palanteer a couple weeks ago. They
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weren't huge. CNBC apparently reported that the value was like 900 million. Bur
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says CNBC was wrong that it was just 9 million. But he had a really interesting
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accusation and it's related to what we've been talking about here on the show with the buildout of
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can we I'm sorry but can we just talk about the complete and total financial illiteracy of the mainstream media?
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How do you how do you confuse 9 million and 900 million? How do you do that?
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I think maybe it's the cost of the shorts versus the value of the stock
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that the shorts represent. No, it's because there's a 100 shares per option. So they were
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Oh, I see. Yes, because the options have 100. Of course, they applied a multiple and they got it wrong. Got it. It was Yeah.
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So the math the calculator is they got calculator. It's not that they got the calculator
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wrong. It's just that they're so uninvested in assets that they don't know how asset
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markets work, I think, is the more logical explanation. Meaning, if you've ever bought a home, you probably know
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what people are talking about when they're talking about financial elements related to a home. But I guess if you've
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never owned a stock or you've never hedged a position or had an option, you don't really know how any of it works.
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But then the problem isn't the person that wrote it. Then there's no facteing and the whole thing just gets an entire news cycle on its own. Which by the way
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helped his short and it never should have because if you heard that some
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random dude had a $9 million bet against the market, you would think nothing of
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it. But then to manufacture a headline about somebody That's a good point. who had a moment. It was almost 20 years
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ago, but whatever. He had a moment where he was kind of right. is short the market and you get it two orders of
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magnitude wrong. That seems quite wrong. Yeah. And to your point, there is a ramification of it, which is it created
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a headwind against the already AI bubble which was deflating after Brad Gersonner
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popped it. I'll take a walk down conspiracy corner. Maybe the actual person is not
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economically illiterate but the exact opposite and then writes the error on purpose knowing that whoever has to
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review it has absolutely no idea what they're talking about and then they themselves are short. So, I wonder if CNBC should investigate
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whether this person actually had a trade on Oh, there you go. Conspiracy corner. Let's get our Tim File House.
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The individual. You're either a complete [ __ ] and you don't know how the financial markets work, in which case you probably should
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be working at some other media outlet, not CNBC, covering the markets, or you
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know how well they work and you know the people above you have no idea. And so, you yourself shorts the market. You're
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basically copying the Bur trade, but then you rewrite the headline to look
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like it's two orders of magnitude bigger, which actually could have moved the market if you saw a yard short. I
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mean, yeah, like that would have probably gotten my attention had I read it. A billion dollars is, you know, reasonable position to have. He was
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accusing also, he's got the Palenter short, but on the AI side, he was saying, "Hey, Meta and Oracle have been
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cooking the books with 176 billion in hidden depreciation to inflate earnings
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by over 20% in 2028." And so, here's the chart. Basically, we've talked about
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what is the the reasonable life of an H100 of, you know, an Nvidia chip or
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really an Nvidia server if you think of it that way. You know, do do these things have a threeyear lifespan, a
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four, five, six year lifespan? core weave might be putting them at six-year um and that dramatically changes your
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expenses which then of course given the scale of the data buildout uh the data
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center buildout could radically change your earnings uh because dividing the
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cost of a data center that cost 100 billion by six or three is you know 2x so your thoughts free yeah so just to go
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into accounting corner it's our most favorite but least often visited a corner here on the all-in podcast.
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Get your pencils. Yeah. So, in accounting, we need a we need a jingle for accounting corner. Sharpen your pencils. Get your
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calculator. Under GAP standards, these generally accepted accounting principles.
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When you report your operating expenses every quarter as a public company or GAP
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filer, you take your capex, anything that you know you make a big investment in and you depreciate it over some
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lifetime. And there's an accounting process by which you can do an internal review and determine that if your
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depreciation schedule doesn't actually map to reality, you should make an adjustment. And so there's a periodic
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assessment that's done to do that. And just to give you a sense to your point, Jason, on the math, Google in the last
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12 months made $120 billion in operating profit. Okay? And let's assume they're
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making 70 billion in capex this year. That capex does not get deducted from
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their operating profit when they report earnings. You take the 70 billion and you divide it by what's called its
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useful life and you report that every year. So if you do it over three years to your point it's about 24 billion a
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year versus 6 years it's 12 billion a year. So that would impact the operating profit by on the order of call it 10%.
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if it the difference between three and six years. And so what Michael Bur is saying is that all of these hyperscalers
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have extended their depreciation schedule or the useful life of their data centers by roughly 2x which cuts
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the operating costs in half when they report it in earnings and so it's making their in earnings inflate. So he's
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claiming they're cooking the books. But if you go back to the chart that you showed or I can just speak to this,
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Google first made this change in Q1 of 21 where they said the servers are now going from 3 to four years. The chart
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shows the combination of servers and networking equipment. Separately in 2021, Google took networking equipment
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from 3 to 5 years and then in 2023 they took it from 5 to 6 years. And so this is a result of this effort where they
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went in and did an analysis. So what happened? What happened in the data centers is that the data centers
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transitioned from being primarily data storage and data transfer systems where
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you would use hard drives and RAM and memory to store data and then transmit it back out to being data processing
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centers because of the AI boom. So as AI became more important in the data center, more of the dollars that are
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going into data centers were allocated towards chips from data storage which initially was hard drives and you throw
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away the hard drives every 18 or 36 months and then solid state memory. Solid state memory would last 2 years,
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four years, 6 years depending on the type of memory you're using and RAM and RAM had this kind of variable lifetime
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as well. And then suddenly when you put these processors in to process the data to do AI, that's the majority of the
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spend and the majority of the energy is going towards the processors. So if you pull up this clip, this is Google's head
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of AI and infrastructure speaking at a conference here recently. Where are we do you think in the capex
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spend cycle but more importantly what are the signals that you guys use internally right in your thinking? I
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mean you have to plan data centers whatever four five years in advance you have to buy nuclear reactors and
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whatnot. So how do you think about the demand signals as well as your
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technology signals and G2 same thing for you but from the point of view of enterprise and neo clouds etc.
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uh we're early in the cycle is uh what what I would say certainly relative to the demand that we're seeing our
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internal users are uh we've been building TPUs for 10 years uh so we have now seven generations in production for
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internal and external use our seven and 8y old TPUs have 100% utilization
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and I think that's the key part that's been going on I've I I made some calls and I checked around with some other
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friends and everyone says the same thing that these seven and 8year-old TPUs and GPUs that are sitting in the data
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centers are still being used and they're being used at 100% utilization. So that actually justifies and validates the
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depreciation schedule being much longer versus shorter. And I actually think Michael Bur's got this wrong.
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Jimoth, what do you think? You're involved in obviously inference. How long will the Grock inferences be out
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there doing jobs? And it does seem like to Freeberg's point and the gentleman in
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the video that there are other jobs to do, right? Like so as these things move down the life cycle, there'll be
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something for them to do. When would you actually unplug them, I guess, is the question, and stop using them. The business models of these companies
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are just far too good for them to get to the point of having exhausted every
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other operational tactic that then they have to cook the books. These are not the seven companies
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that are going to cook the books. Yeah. The practical thing that's happening that Michael is not technical
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enough to understand is that there are meaningful iterations in how kernels are
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working in how the intention mechanisms of these models are being rewritten in how people are swapping out HBM for
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SRAMM in these designs in how they're building in some cases really huge dies
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in some cases much smaller chiplets all of this creates more and more
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utilization So these things last longer and they also need more. I think that in
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order to make these accusations, you need to have some modeicum of technical grounding that I don't think he has. Here's the thing with shorts in general,
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which I don't like shorting. So let me just say this. There's supposed to be a check on
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financial malfeasants, but it's not that. When you look at these shortselling firms, for every one of
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them that actually uncovers malfeasants, what it really is is them creating chaos and
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innuendo under the guise of their right to free speech. And what they do is they put out
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some screed that tries to move the market. They're positioned against the stock before it comes out and then they
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hope to close the position out and make some money. I think that's a just a pretty sad and terrible way to live
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one's life, but it's legal and so you're allowed to do it. It almost makes no sense for Michael to become technically
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literate because he probably wouldn't have written it. So, and to your point,
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the fear, uncertainty, doubt you can create if you're Michael Bur if you did the big short and you shorted the
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housing crisis correctly. Now, that took two years for him to be correct. So, these things are painful to execute on
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in his defense. We don't make any money. Look, outside of my venture fund, I ran a hedge fund for I don't know 7 years, 8
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years, and here are our longs, okay? We And you can find these clips on the
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internet, you know, Tesla in 2015, Amazon 2016,
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Salesforce 2018, just tagged it. And you know how much money I made on the short side? Because
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we always felt like we had to hedge. And so what we would do is we would bumble around looking for shorts. Never made
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any money. The one short we found was a wireless telecom operator and it was a legitimate fraud. Its company's
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corporate address was a pizza parlor in Barcelona. Diversified revenue streams.
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Otherwise, my point is it's just that shorting is just somebody's ability to
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cry fire in a theater. Quite honestly, it's extremely hard to impossible to commit financial fraud as a public
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company in 2025. I guess the other shirt we should take a look at is the Palunteer one because
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Palunteer is man it's way out there. Alex Karp has been doing some great
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interviews. He's a national treasure. Incredibly entertaining. They obviously have a great business. They're on a $3.5
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billion run rate according to their last quarter. But the valuation is $480
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billion. This puts them at 137 times their sales. It is extraordinary. It's
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way out there. Data dog and snowflake. Microsoft, you know, these are at uh 13
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times their sales. And I guess Cloudflare is out there at
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37 and Crowd Strike at 30. So this is truly an outlier. Freedberg. If you were
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to give Palunteer the same price to sales ratio as some of those highly
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valued ones, probably be a 6070 billion company, $29 a share instead of $170.
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So, what do you think of his Palunteer short Freedberg?
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Based on the statement you just made, you're saying that a company is worth their historical sales numbers. And I
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don't think that that's how shareholders often do or perhaps should think about
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what they're buying, which is an ownership interest in the future of the enterprise that they're buying a piece
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of. When you invest in a startup, you're not saying, "Hey, that startup is worth what the employees did last year before
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they even started the company." You're making a bet on the future potential of the business and what you think the cash
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generation over time will be. Your time horizon may be different than mine. And that's how a market finds a price. Uh as
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a result, I think there's probably a market trying to find a price for Palunteer where folks have a great deal
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of difference in opinion over what the future potential of the business is and
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as a result what the earnings generation will be at different time scales in the future and that's how they're getting to
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the current market price. Who am I to judge? I am the person who would make my own decision of my own time scale and my
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own estimation of the future of that business if I were putting my own capital into the business. I've not studied the business well. I don't have
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a strong point of view or opinion on the value of the business relative to its future earnings potential. That's how I
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would look at it. I would make an investment for the long term if I were to buy the shares, not look at the last year's numbers and say that there's a
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valuation arbitrage opportunity and that's what I'm buying. So, you know, to each their own. Over time, the market
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corrects itself as they say, you know, it um it's a voting matter today and
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it's a weighing matter in the future. That's Warren Buffett's famous quote that the actual earnings generation in
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the future will determine whether someone paid a good price or a bad price depending on the point at which they bought in the past. Meaning at 400
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billion market cap, you could be getting a steal or you could be significantly overpaying.
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That's going to be based on your assessment, your judgment as an investor. And I think people are looking at like 30 to 45% year-over-year growth
00:15:01
Shimath and saying, "Yeah, it's got a lot of to fill in that valuation would just take a lot of growth. Maybe the
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growth accelerates." We saw that with Nvidia, right? They they started to have unprecedented growth. Any thoughts on uh
00:15:13
Palunteer short while we move on to our next subject? Well, I think the Palunteer short is stupid and I think that those people
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will lose money. The thing with all of these other companies, put your chart up
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there. The thing that the people that are shorting this company don't understand is that all of these other
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businesses that you put up there, there is a viable competitor of some kind that
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you can switch to. And so what I would say is the opposite of what they're saying, which is you
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have a low multiple to sales when the churn risk is higher.
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So look at the one with the lowest multiple to sales, MongoDB. There's 90 versions of what MongoDB does. I'm not
00:15:59
going to say whether MongoDB is good or bad. It's actually a good company. It's an extremely well-run business, but it's
00:16:06
not unique. It's just extremely well-run. Snowflake is not unique, but it is
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wellrun. Palunteer is both unique and well-run, and there's no clear
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alternative. So there's no place to turn to. And so I think the reason why it has a premium valuation is because the
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duration and the durability of these cash flows are much longer than what you typically see in any of these other companies. And if people took 1,000th of
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a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion. Lack of competitors would be the reason
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you think it's uh more defensible. By the way, I'm neither long nor short. I was long in the private markets. I I
00:16:43
was an investor in the series B pounder. I'm not long anymore. I wish I was, but I'm not. So it's not like I have a
00:16:48
vested interest in this being right. But it's just so obvious that what they do is completely unique and completely
00:16:53
differentiated. There is no alternative in the market for it. That's why they trade such a huge premium to sales. And if you look in any market for any
00:17:01
product that is unique and is effectively where they are the only competitor for
00:17:07
what they offer, you will see an equivalent market dynamic like this. And there is no competitor to the
00:17:15
greatest holiday party ever happening December 6th in San Francisco. Come with
00:17:20
your besties. God, I'm such a bad mood. I have I've gotten no sleep. I'm so tired. I know. I'm cranky. You're cranky.
00:17:26
Spanky. You're in a bad mood. I couldn't sleep. Sax goes in the back. Sax sleeps. He's like fresh as a daisy.
00:17:32
When we land, by the way, when we landed, the winds in San Francisco, I don't know what's going on. We landed in
00:17:37
Oakland. Holy [ __ ] man. It was like a category 4 hurricane going on in the
00:17:43
West Coast this week. Unbelievable. You were coming in, of course, from the West Coast. You were uh I guess in DC
00:17:50
meeting with uh I don't know. Oh, you had some business meetings there or some uh political meetings. Oh, you can you can Let's play Where's
00:17:57
Waldo? Here, Nick. Post the picture. You can see you see Where's Waldo? Here's the picture. Okay, we got a picture here.
00:18:02
No, no, Nick. Zoom out. Zoom out. Yeah, to the zoom out photo there. Where's Waldo?
00:18:08
Oh, let's see. Okay, here's a bunch of people in the White House. Bill Aman. Bill Aman is right in the back. You can see his hand right beside
00:18:14
Nats. That's Ken Molus, obviously. Steve Schwarzman, me Bergam.
00:18:19
Look at you all the way. Great guys. Will Mcdana. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, one of these guys is not like the other.
00:18:26
Yeah, it was awesome. What happened was we were having dinner and then he said at 9:45 I'm going to go down to the Oval
00:18:32
and sign the bill to reopen the government. He said, "Do you guys want to come?" So, we all came. All was just
00:18:37
when you say you were having dinner, you and Nat were having dinner with the president. No, no, no. He was hosting a dinner for
00:18:42
financial leaders and you were there. We were invited. It was cool. The dinner. Very nice. So, you went to dinner with the president and um Yeah,
00:18:48
that will that looks like almost as amazing and extravaganza as the I got a cologne. You know the cologne
00:18:54
where he sprayed it on? Yeah. He's spraying it on foreign leaders. They come in, he sprays it on them, and uh then they're allowed to
00:19:00
come in the White House. Me and Steve Schwarzman got we got we got a push push on both on both sides of the neck and we
00:19:07
got Trump carrying the cologne with him and spraying people at the dinners. No, after the press conference was done and he reopened government. He's like,
00:19:13
"Hey, you guys want to come back?" I think they should have like a little um gift shop at the White House with all the Trump stuff, the stakes.
00:19:19
I will be honest with you, it smells very good. Oh. So anyway, come to the holiday party. It's going to be a blast. There's
00:19:25
a couple of tickets left, not many. So, we're going to burn it down this year with our bestie Tony Hinch Cliff. Casino
00:19:31
night with poker. We got a celebrity DJ coming. Freedberg's going to be on the ones and twos.
00:19:36
Allin.com/events.allin.com/events. And hey, the tequila has shipped. So, if
00:19:44
you bought tequila, we started shipping the tequila bottles. Thank you to everybody for your patience. We were
00:19:50
getting the bottles, but uh David, it seems like um the bottles have uh started to ship. Yeah, people are
00:19:55
feeling pretty good about it. Yeah, it's exciting. I think very exciting. The world's greatest tequila is going to
00:20:02
be uh surprisingly wellreceived. Okay, from the number one podcast in the world with the world's greatest moderator. All right, listen. There is
00:20:08
an affordability crisis. We talked about it here for the last couple of weeks. Last weekend, the Trump administration
00:20:15
floated a pretty wild idea of a 50year mortgage that would ostensibly cut
00:20:22
payments, monthly payments by 20 30%. And maybe theoretically uh boost home
00:20:28
ownership and we'll we'll discuss this uh in depth here for young people. The idea was slammed by many people in MAG
00:20:36
is saying, "Hey, this is debt slavery and it's going to triple the lifetime interest. you can just be paying through
00:20:41
the nose for your entire life and you'll be an indentured uh servant. Politico said the idea was brought about by FHFA
00:20:50
director Bill Py. Py tweeted that the FHFA was quote actively evaluating
00:20:56
portable mortgages. Now, this is a really good idea. That means you can take your mortgage with you if you go buy another home if you upgrade a home.
00:21:03
That would obviously get people out of homes that maybe they've outgrown or that their kids have left and there's
00:21:10
extra bedrooms and that is not happening because people are afraid to unwind a 2
00:21:15
or 3% mortgage to upgrade it to a six or 7% one. And there's been some data going viral on X. National Association of
00:21:23
Realers released a report last week. The average age of a firsttime home buyer is
00:21:29
now 40 years old. That's up from 28 years old in 1991 when I was in college.
00:21:36
And in the 30 years from 1991 to 2021, it only increased a modest 18% from 28
00:21:43
to 33 years old. So in the last four years, it's jumped from 33 years old to
00:21:49
40 years old for the average firsttime home buyer. Day clip of friend of the
00:21:56
pod Ben Shapiro went viral. Here's a 25 second clip and we'll talk about it after.
00:22:01
If you're a young person and you can't afford to live here, then maybe you should not live here. I mean, that is a real thing. Okay, I know that we've
00:22:08
we've now grown up in a society that says that you deserve to live where you grew up. But the reality is that the
00:22:13
history of America is almost literally the opposite of that. The history of America is you go to a place where there
00:22:19
is opportunity. And if the opportunities are limited here and they're not changing, then you really should try to
00:22:24
think about other places where you have better opportunities. Pretty obvious statement there from Ben
00:22:31
Shapiro. Your thoughts generally on affordability. Chima,
00:22:36
it's a real problem. I think that this is the keystone topic that has to be
00:22:42
navigated correctly for the Republicans to win the midterms. I think there are
00:22:48
three critical issues if I had to sort of put my finger on it. Issue number one
00:22:54
is one of housing. So Ben is right there. Specifically, the problem is that
00:23:02
older folks own all the homes and own multiple homes and younger folks just cannot get into the housing market and
00:23:08
cities and states do not do a good job of creating incentives for new homes to be built. That's one. The second I think
00:23:15
is still around healthcare. The emergent data on the cost of Obamacare is
00:23:22
horrible. Obamacare has been an unmititigated failure. The concept of capping gross
00:23:29
margin, while it seemed good theoretically, has really turned out to be an incredibly stupid thing. So what
00:23:36
that meant, Jason, is in Obamacare, there was this feature that said you can only make a 15% gross margin, right? And
00:23:44
what the folks at the White House at the time thought would happen is that costs
00:23:49
would go down because their gross margin would be limited. Instead, what they did was they just started to raise the gross
00:23:55
prices of everything so that the 15% applied to a much bigger number. And so you saw the president this week trying
00:24:01
to see if he could just take the health incentives and give them directly to people and put it in their HSA accounts
00:24:08
so that it didn't need to flow through the healthcare infrastructure and the insurance companies. So, that needs to
00:24:13
get fixed. And then the third is on the student debt side. I said it last week, I'll say it this week.
00:24:19
I'm sort of copying Peter Teal here, but he's been saying for a while that we
00:24:24
have to be much more sympathetic to the loan forgiveness and I think he's right. So I think if we
00:24:30
get these three issues addressed, something in housing, something in healthcare, and something on the student
00:24:36
loan side, it is a transformational domestic policy agenda that puts
00:24:42
affordability front and center that will impact 50 to 75 million American households. Freeberg, your thoughts? If you pull up
00:24:49
this article from yesterday, yesterday, uh, LA city council held a vote. The
00:24:54
vote was 12 to2. In this vote, they uh limited the amount that a landlord can
00:25:00
increase the rent every year. This is rent stabilization. Yeah, rent control.
00:25:05
So, it limits what a landlord can charge in rent. And basically, they passed the vote 12 to2. And what they voted is that
00:25:13
the landlord cannot increase the rent on an annual basis by more than 90% of CPI.
00:25:21
CPI is the consumer price index which is published by a federal agency every year as we know. It's the inflation index
00:25:27
number that we often talk about on the show with a floor of 1%. So the landlord
00:25:32
regardless of CPI can increase rent by 1% and a cap of 4%. So if CPI spikes for
00:25:39
some reason which I don't think has happened in recent times you can charge four up to 4% increase. So it limits
00:25:45
what a landlord can charge in rent. And fundamentally to think about this as an investor. So, if you're buying a
00:25:51
building or building a new building, you are now going to have your equity capped. Your upside, the amount of cash
00:25:58
flows that you can generate from that asset, meaning the apartment building you're buying is now limited by the
00:26:06
amount that you can increase the rent every year. So, that creates a disincentive for capital for investors
00:26:12
to buy new buildings or put money into upgrading buildings or put money into building new buildings. At the same
00:26:18
time, as we know, the city of Los Angeles, the state of California, and
00:26:23
the federal government of the United States have passed law after law,
00:26:28
regulation after regulation, statute after statute has gone into effect that
00:26:34
makes it more expensive, take more time, and more difficult to build housing. The
00:26:39
increase in regulation combined with the cap in the economic access to free
00:26:45
markets, I think has made it increasingly difficult for there to be a free flow of capital to go and build new
00:26:52
housing and develop units for people uh to live in and for sale. Every time the
00:26:59
government gets involved in a market, it distorts the market. It limits the flow
00:27:04
of liquidity and it limits the market finding lower prices. And I think that's
00:27:10
fundamentally what's gone on. The government is now trying to limit what a
00:27:15
landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it's ripped out all of the incentive for landlords to buy and own
00:27:21
these buildings because they're now only going to be small yielding investments and there's no upside. So there's no
00:27:27
incentive to go and build new housing. And then the government's made it difficult to build new housing for lots and lots of different reasons. Same
00:27:33
thing happened with Prop 13, which we passed in California in 1978, I think,
00:27:38
which creates a huge disincentive for people to sell their homes and reduces liquidity in the market. Now, I'll just
00:27:44
flip to the federal agencies. So, Fanny and Freddy combined have issued or supported about $8 trillion of home
00:27:52
loans. The initial view on that would be, okay, great. They're creating liquidity for a market that doesn't have
00:27:57
liquidity, for people that need access to capital, for banks that don't have assets to lend. And as a result, it's
00:28:03
going to make housing more accessible to more people. That was the fundamental premise of setting up a government
00:28:08
lending agency to support the purchase of housing. But as you fast forward over many years, the fundamental reality in a
00:28:15
very liquid, well-c capitalized marketplace that we have today is that that capital is actually excess
00:28:22
liquidity that can in fact drive prices up. And much like we've seen in many
00:28:28
other markets like education with student loans or like healthare with Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare and so on,
00:28:34
when the government gets involved and provides capital to quote support a market and make it more accessible, the
00:28:41
prices skyrocket. So people will use a Fanny or Freddy Mack loan to buy a first
00:28:46
home and then they can go buy their second home or their third home or they can now afford to buy a more expensive home that they otherwise might not have
00:28:52
bought. And so it over time creates an inflationary effect in the markets. And I think that this is a fundamental
00:28:58
question on like how are we going to get out of this doom cycle because fundamentally we're adding restrictions for building new homes. We're capping
00:29:04
the amount you can make on homes. And we're giving liquidity to markets to drive up the price of homes. All of
00:29:10
which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands. And you know what we say? Please
00:29:15
government do more. And if the government does more, I can tell you one thing for sure. Prices are going to go
00:29:21
up even more. And so I think one of the the challenging and hardest things to do is say, "Hey, government do less." And
00:29:26
figure out a way to kind of back out of this situation. Perfect segue into what I'm seeing on the ground, you know, and I I lived in
00:29:33
New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and as folks know now, I live in Austin, Texas. And if you you Perfect segue
00:29:39
there, David, there's really two different countries here. You have people living in coastal cities where you're not allowed to build units and
00:29:47
rent is incredibly expensive and you make the same amount of money. If you look at when I grew up in Brooklyn and
00:29:54
uh I went to school at night. I took 5 years to get my degree from Florida University. I had 12K in student loan
00:29:59
debt. I was making 40 to 60,000 a year while I was in college doing it. It's a
00:30:05
big salary for back then, but my apartment for in Brooklyn was 500 a month. I lived in an apartment, an
00:30:11
addict apartment. And so if you were to take two people like that in America today, they're
00:30:17
making 60 to 70K. That's the average salary for college educated people who are 27 years old. If you live in Austin,
00:30:25
it is absolutely no problem for you to own a home. Let me explain to you how easy it is for we have so many units in
00:30:34
Austin, Texas. And in Houston, it's even more pronounced. But Nick, pull up the chart there just on rent because you
00:30:39
start as renters. Obviously, Austin rent has gone down 20% in the last 3 years
00:30:46
because we build units. When you build units, when you have supply, prices go
00:30:51
down. And the stupid people in San Francisco with their woke [ __ ] are like, "Oh, you're building luxury
00:30:57
units." Let me tell you what happens, dumb asses, when you build luxury units. The the rich hipsters who are living in
00:31:04
shitty apartments in the mission upgrade to luxury buildings. How do I know this? They're doing it in Austin. If you live
00:31:10
in a crummy apartment in Austin and you see these beautiful apartments being made with luxurious pools and
00:31:16
restaurants, cafes, co-working spaces, you move to one of those and that frees up that unit. In Austin, if you make
00:31:24
$130,000 a year, your 130,000 as a couple, your rent is going to be 10%
00:31:34
15% max of your income. And you're going to be able to to make a down payment of
00:31:40
10% because the homes within 25 miles under 45 minutes of driving to the city
00:31:47
center. Do you know how much they are per square footed where I live? How much?
00:31:52
They are $200 to $300 per square foot. You can buy a threebedroom for three to
00:31:57
300,000 to 500,000. You can buy a brand new one freeird for 500,000. So
00:32:03
Ben Shapiro is absolutely correct. The people who are upset at Ben Shapiro are a bunch of [ __ ] hipsters who went
00:32:10
hundreds of thousand dollars in debt, are paying5 or $6,000 a month in their
00:32:16
rent, can never get out from under their rent payment or their liberal arts
00:32:21
[ __ ] degree. If you're a smart person, go to the University of Texas,
00:32:27
graduate with little to no debt, live in a a modest apartment, put down a down payment, and buy a $500,000 home. This
00:32:34
problem doesn't exist in Texas. It doesn't exist in a lot of markets. Last night at dinner, Jason, the
00:32:41
president asked, "What could we do? What are some ideas around student debt?" And Bill Aman had a great idea, which was we
00:32:48
need to put the university on the hook as the first loss.
00:32:54
Yes. And and his suggestion was 20,000 was what he said. I I don't know if that's the right number or not, but the logic
00:33:01
that he made, which I thought made a lot of sense, was if the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees and
00:33:07
they know that they'll take the first dollar loss up to a certain amount, 20, 30, 40,000, they'll be much more
00:33:12
circumspect about what degrees they force onto people and the amount of money that they're willing to actually
00:33:19
underwrite via these loans. And that will be a telltale sign that a lot of these degrees don't make any sense. And
00:33:24
right now we don't have a market check to tell young people that. And so we push them all into school thinking that
00:33:30
it's the right thing to do and then they're just completely saddled and they'll never get up. You have to do
00:33:36
math people. You have to have agency and you have to be self-reliant. It when I went to school there were some kids and
00:33:42
it's happening now where they think they have to live on campus. They think they have to go for four years. If you have a
00:33:47
job and you take five years to get your degree and you don't live on campus, your debt position when you graduate is
00:33:53
going to be much different. If you have a job that is, you know, in demand in
00:33:59
the world, you'll make 60 70 80k. If you come out with less debt, if you live in an attic apartment, if you do a little
00:34:05
austerity people, and you do a spreadsheet of your finances, which I had to do because my dad was a
00:34:12
bartender, my mom was a nurse. I had to pay for college myself. I had to think it through. The these elite lunatic kids
00:34:20
in New York City or San Francisco think they deserve to live in Manhattan. You don't have a god-given right to live in
00:34:25
Tokyo, France, Hong Kong, or any of the major cities. You need to live in the
00:34:31
suburbs. You need to commute an hour to school. France is a country. Uh in Paris. Thank you.
00:34:37
Okay. In Paris, sorry. If you live in Paris, London, these are not your god-given right. Live an hour outside the city
00:34:43
center and take the tube people. These lunatics think they deserve it. And this is why Mandami and the Legion episodes.
00:34:50
Can we just title this episode grumpy chimoth and soap box JCO? Absolutely.
00:34:57
No, I just Did you bring your own soap box? Did you bring your own soap box to Tokyo or did
00:35:02
you buy one there? Soap box. Soap box. Soap box. Yeah. Japanese. You're going to
00:35:12
You're going to upset so many of the private equity wives that you spend most of your time curing favor from. They're
00:35:18
not even know any private I haven't met any private equity wives. I don't know where they are, but literally these kids
00:35:24
are so They're in the They're in your comments for sure. I don't think they're following me on
00:35:29
that. I'm sure your your bot army pays for some of them to They're not. I'm telling you something. They're not They're definitely not in PA
00:35:36
public equity wise for JCAL. When you run when when you listen, you're such a narcissist. You will
00:35:42
eventually run for some political office and that'll be py forjal.
00:35:48
Absolutely. You'll be the first to donate to my give me a break, bro. You know why I would? Because
00:35:53
you're you're one of my best friends and I love you. So yes, site unseen. You tell me how much you need, I'll give it to you. But it's not because I believe
00:36:00
you're right or you should win. Okay. Coming back to New York after mammi burns it down. Mayorjason.com
00:36:06
bookmark. I am donating to you has no alignment to philosophy, ideology, or your potential chances of winning. It's
00:36:13
purely for There it is. Hey guys, book it now. I'm controlled by big tech and finance interests. I guess related to the angst
00:36:21
about affordability was the flare up of H-1Bs. Again,
00:36:27
Trump went viral after Laura Ingram on Fox
00:36:32
kind of pushed him pretty hard on H1B visas and he stood his ground. President
00:36:39
Trump stood his ground that we need high skilled workers in America. Here's your 25 second clip. We'll be back on the
00:36:45
other side. H-1B visa thing will not be a big priority for your administration because if you want to raise wages for
00:36:52
American workers, you can't flood the country with with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of foreign
00:36:57
workers. You also do have to bring in talent when you don't have talented people. No, you don't. No, you don't. We don't have
00:37:03
talented people. No, you don't have you don't have certain talents and you have to people have to learn. You can't take
00:37:08
people off an unemploy like an unemployment line and say, "I'm going to put you into a factory. We're going to
00:37:14
make missiles or I'm going to put How did we ever do it before? Jamat, your thoughts here? Uh, we've obviously talked to her blew in the face
00:37:20
about the value and the abuse of H-1B visas, but it's coming up again. And I
00:37:25
guess, you know, at a time when Trump's popularity is a little bit low and
00:37:31
people are suffering with the inflation not going down, yada yada. This seems to be like um another point of contention.
00:37:39
I think that we have to overhaul the H-1B program. Last night at dinner actually
00:37:45
Howard Lutnik explained how some of these abuses happen. It's really unfair actually how it works.
00:37:52
What he described is that when the application window opens for what is a very small number of H1Bs a company that
00:38:00
has you know call it 300,000 employees abroad will apply on behalf of all 300,000
00:38:07
because they're all roughly the same kind of employee. Whoever gets it gets to come over. Now, if you're filing
00:38:12
300,000 applications, obviously you have a disproportionately larger chance than Freeberg's company or my company or your
00:38:18
company, Jason, who's filing one, obviously. And so when those kinds of
00:38:23
things happen and you can now use the data to understand it, you have to fix it. So that's one very material and
00:38:30
obvious change we need to make right away, which is we have to allow American companies to find these folks and have
00:38:36
it be very precise. The second thing is that we're introducing
00:38:42
a price that each of these companies can pay for so that then you can signal clearly the disproportionate economic
00:38:50
value that that person can create and the fact that after all the effort possible you can't find that person here
00:38:56
and that's why you're willing to pay $100,000 which is a non-trivial amount of money. So, I think that when both of
00:39:03
those two things, the $100,000 thing is introduced and the visa application abuse is fixed, I think that we will go
00:39:10
a long way to cleaning up the H-1B thing and putting ourselves back in a much better place. But right now, there's
00:39:15
just a lot of abuse. And so, the program itself is not working the way it should have. And and I think this has largely
00:39:20
been solved. I think it's a communication issue for the Trump administration because they did put this $100,000 fee on it that's already in
00:39:27
effect. And I've been saying this here at CNBC this startup for a decade. There's massive abuse on the bottom half
00:39:33
and there's it's necessary on the top half. If you're bringing in IT people for$4 to $80,000, it's not viable to put
00:39:41
a 2030 $40,000 fee on top of that. But if you're Google or Facebook and you're
00:39:46
bringing in a PhD in AI who's going to get paid a million dollar, well that $100,000 fee, 20 $30,000 a year,
00:39:53
whatever it winds up being, is nothing. It's dimminimous. They I take it one step further. Freeberg. I think we
00:39:58
should be auctioning these. Use a more narrow example. Yeah. Let's say Freeberg. It's a startup. He
00:40:05
has capital, but he has to return it. Freeberg, would you pay $100,000 for the right person
00:40:11
that you could not find? And are there jobs where right now you're like, man, I can't find people that are highly
00:40:17
specialized or not yet? I could see that. Yeah. I mean certainly I could see being I mean fortunately I
00:40:22
have there are we can recruit those sorts of people in my industry because we're very special but yeah I
00:40:29
could understand like particularly as it relates to software I could see people definitely doing that.
00:40:35
Yeah and the the the way to really do this and this is Trump's superpower is turning something that's a cost center
00:40:42
into a profit center. I always give him credit when he does something brilliant. And the brilliant thing to do is to take
00:40:47
the hundred,000 and make it an auction. I would auction off half of these to the
00:40:52
highest bidder. And then you would have Google, Facebook, and Meta saying instead of give me, you know, a 100,000
00:40:58
of these at the rack rate, they would be saying, "Hey, I need 10 of these for sure. I'm going to bid a million. I need
00:41:04
another hundred of these. I'm willing to bid 750." And then take that money and just allocate it to vocational training
00:41:10
and retraining. You know, the problem is this administration has two different sides. You have the brilliant people in
00:41:15
this administration who I admire very much like Lutnik and Sachs and the business people. And then you have the
00:41:21
knuckleheads in my mind, the people who are doing the the stuff that ICE agents and the deportations. And the perfect
00:41:27
example of this has come up with the H-1B visas. They took the Hyundai plant
00:41:32
where you needed high-skilled workers and they arrested and they deported a
00:41:37
bunch of South Koreans. they in a very brutal way, very disrespectful way. At
00:41:44
the same time that Lutnik is out there trying to get people to invest in the country and build factories here. You
00:41:50
can't be deporting people with Steven Miller's deranged process of running people down and treating them inhumanely
00:41:56
and then at the same time be saying, "Hey, we want you to invest and build a battery factory." Hyundai has a battery
00:42:03
factory. These lunatics came there and arrested and chained up South Koreans who are our partners, who are helping us
00:42:09
rebuild our navy. This is where the administration has to speak with one voice and it needs to be the
00:42:15
professional smart people. And this is another example of it. They they they already solved this problem and they
00:42:21
can't communicate it properly. Let Bessing go out there and communicate this over and
00:42:27
over and over again. It's a profit center now. And don't arrest the South Koreans who were trying to get to build
00:42:33
factories here. Scratch the next topic. There was a massive three three massive
00:42:40
coronal mass ejections this week. These are giant waves of charged particles,
00:42:46
protons and electrons mostly that shot off from the sun. You can see a graphic. You have to pick better words because
00:42:54
that looks like Uranus right now. Did you have a burrito? Mass ejections shot out.
00:43:00
out right from Uranus. Okay. So, the the sun goes through an
00:43:05
11-year cycle. As you know, the sun is a giant ball of plasma. Plasma is where
00:43:12
the particles are so hot, they're so energetic that the electrons and the
00:43:17
protons and all the particles kind of split apart. And so, you have these
00:43:23
subatomic particles moving around at extremely high energy levels. And when they when the protons smash into each
00:43:30
other, that's what fusion is. And that's what causes the energy that we get from the sun. And because these are charged
00:43:37
particles, protons have a positive charge and electrons have a negative charge. When they're moving around at this high energy in such a dense space,
00:43:44
they actually create very powerful magnetic fields. And those magnetic fields pull and stretch the physics of
00:43:51
the the surface of the sun. And over time there are these cycles where those
00:43:56
magnetic field strengths get so strong that once in a while they snap and shoot
00:44:02
out a chunk of those particles into space. That is the fundamental physics
00:44:07
that drives these coronal mass ejections. These big waves of charged particles that shoot flying through
00:44:13
space at thousands of miles a second is how fast they move. High energy waves of
00:44:18
charged particles. And then when they hit the earth, because they're charged particles and we have a magnetic field
00:44:24
around the earth, they interact with the magnetic field and they disturb it. And the disturbance of the magnetic field on
00:44:30
Earth can actually have dramatic effects on GPS, on communications, and it can
00:44:35
actually create shorts in conducting material on the surface of the planet.
00:44:43
So for years we've always talked about there could be an extinction level event one day if one of these coronal mass
00:44:48
ejections are so large they could actually uh wipe out satellite communication. They could turn off all
00:44:54
computers. They could cause shorts in the electrical grids around the planet. There's all these major risks. So this
00:45:00
is often talked about as like when's this big event going to happen? And this week it was a very big event. There were
00:45:05
three major coronal mass ejections that happened in in a row. Two of them kind of combined and hit the earth at the
00:45:11
same time. and we had the highest level recorded geomagnetic storm which was G5.
00:45:16
So this G5 storm caused massive disruptions in the magnetic field strength of the Earth. Fortunately,
00:45:22
there was not a lot of reported damage, but we did get to enjoy the beautiful aurora as far south as Texas in the
00:45:31
United States because these charged particles with magnetic field, they kind of move towards the north and south pole
00:45:37
and then they combine with molecules in the atmosphere. They release light and
00:45:42
you can see these beautiful waves of orange, yellow, red, green, purple lights that look like they're coming
00:45:49
down from the heavens all over the planet. It was really an amazing and spectacular site. So, it was a scary
00:45:55
week from a solar storm perspective, but it created a beautiful view here on
00:46:00
Earth. So, that was the explanation for what happened with the geomagnetic storm this week. But to be clear,
00:46:07
there were no other adverse effects from the CME. So far, there's some reports of
00:46:13
communications going out in Africa on small networks and things like that. Uh I did not hear about widespread
00:46:19
satellite failures, which is obviously always a big risk with these things because these things can actually short out satellites. I mean, these are clouds
00:46:26
of protons moving very densely at actually, you know what, Nick, can you
00:46:32
pull up this is one chart to look at. So this chart actually shows on a log scale, which means every step up on the
00:46:38
chart is 10 times bigger than the number before it. But you can see that right around midnight London time on November
00:46:45
12th, which by the way was just before I got on the airplane to fly from Japan to San Francisco. So I was actually
00:46:52
considering not getting on my flight around this time. Really? But there was a Yeah, very seriously.
00:46:58
Well, he didn't want to have a mass ejection on his flight. That would have been really bad. Well, you thought like the GPS could go out or
00:47:04
something like that. No, no. So, this has happened in the past and they do have redundancy for the GPS going out, but the radiation level
00:47:10
spikes uh when you're that high up, but only at higher latitude. So, I was looking at the latitude of my flight path, but they
00:47:17
actually turned off all flights going over the North Pole because the radiation gets so high. You can't fly
00:47:22
over the North Pole when you have this much magnetic flux happening,
00:47:27
particularly in the northern latitude. So you can see in this image that red bar is protons
00:47:34
that are moving that have an energy greater than 10 mega electron volts
00:47:40
which is not a super high energy but more scarily is the green one. The green
00:47:45
one is actually 100 mega electron volts. This is a massive amount of energy in a
00:47:50
proton that can cause serious damage on a microscopic level. So it can shred DNA
00:47:56
for example. it can shred circuits and so on. So this is a very powerful set of
00:48:02
positively charged protons and they count how many they're picking up on these satellites where they have these
00:48:07
kind of detectors as they come from the sun how many of them they're hitting and you can see this extraordinary spike
00:48:13
where it spiked up from normally you see call it one
00:48:18
to all the way up to a thousand. So it spiked by a,000x
00:48:23
wow in 5 minutes. And so this is a massive increase in the natural background effect of charged
00:48:30
protons shooting at this extremely high energy through space and hitting Earth. There was that Carrington event which
00:48:36
was the the largest one ever recorded. I'm sure you're aware Friedberg like in the 1800s. What would happen if we had that level
00:48:43
of event today given the infrastructure because back then we had telegrams right? We didn't have a lot of equipment
00:48:49
but some of that equipment got fried during the Carrington event. Yeah. Yeah, I mean that's the sort of
00:48:55
event that can absolutely shortcircuit electronic equipment either in satellites and then they would be
00:49:00
rendered permanently unusable. It can also if it hits the surface of the earth because remember what protects the earth
00:49:06
is the magnetic field we have and the reason we have a magnetic field around the earth is because we have an iron core at the earth and as that iron core
00:49:13
rotates it creates a magnetic field and we're very lucky to have that because that magnetic field actually is like a
00:49:19
shield. It's like a force field around the earth and it shoots charged particles away from the earth and keeps them from hitting the surface of the
00:49:25
earth which would kill all life on earth over time. That's why we can't go live on the surface of the earth
00:49:31
without protection. We're preparing for a Carrington event. Like if it happened you could turn off all the equipment.
00:49:36
No. Like power grids and stuff like that. So what would happen is you could have these voltage spikes that can actually
00:49:43
shortcircuit physically destructure the microchips, the little wire connectors. So this is a very serious risk to
00:49:50
civilization which is why people always talk about these solar storms being those black swan events, those one ina
00:49:55
million year events or those one in aundred year events that could render us back into the stone ages. Some people
00:50:00
say it's unclear the probability of that. But the sun does go through an
00:50:06
11-year cycle. And during that 11-year cycle, there's a minimum and a maximum. We're kind of close to the maximum right
00:50:11
now. So we are seeing these events very predictably every 11 years. But how big
00:50:16
they are is something that's, you know, unknown to us. I mean, we try and study the dynamics of the sun, but it's very
00:50:23
difficult for us to be very predictive about how big these CMEs are going to be when they're going to happen.
00:50:28
So, we have to be on top of like observing as they happen. But then we only have a few hours to say, "Oh my gosh, this thing's coming for us.
00:50:34
Beware, everyone. Watch out. Be careful." But there's not very much we can do to prepare. I will say I have a
00:50:39
belief that I think electronbased computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be
00:50:44
replaced with photonbased computing. And I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and uh
00:50:51
semiconducting material over to photonic material and photonic systems and what will ultimately be quantum meets
00:50:57
photonic systems probably some point this century. When that happens, these risks go away. But for now, while we're
00:51:04
relying on electrons and moving electrons around through copper wire and so on, we run the very strong risk of
00:51:09
these geomagnetic storms having an adverse effect on the planet and on our core infrastructure. Freeberg, I got to see you earlier this
00:51:16
week in Tokyo. We shared a little tempora. Good times. Yeah, good times in Tokyo. Definitely a lot of
00:51:23
expats making their way from the tech industry to Tokyo. It's a booming town,
00:51:28
booming tech scene. There's a lot of people from America who have come to the
00:51:34
conclusion that the great confiscation is upon us. This is what I'm calling it, the great
00:51:40
confiscation. Whether it's California or New York, they're coming for your bags. And so
00:51:46
people are now looking for not one but two escape hatches. A state, a sovereign
00:51:51
state, Freedberg, in the United States, the great state of Texas where I hell from the past few
00:51:57
years. and people are looking for an international. Everybody's getting themselves a
00:52:03
passport or a golden visa. Japan, Riad, and where I've spent the last two weeks,
00:52:09
are amongst the top choices. Do you see this image behind me? This is that forest city in Malaysia.
00:52:16
It's the craziest thing I've ever seen. You went there? I went there last week. They put a
00:52:22
hundred billion dollars into building this island. A whole city. This is the thing that Bology owns. No,
00:52:27
he he rented a hotel. They have a big resort hotel. He rented the whole hotel. That's where he's running his network
00:52:34
school. He's running essentially like an in-person Y Combinator network state.
00:52:39
You pay one fee for your apartment, your food, your gym, and you hang out with other people who want to be part of a
00:52:45
new society with their own rules. Kind of interesting on the margins.
00:52:51
Yeah. But between that and Singapore and Tokyo, I mean, there was like
00:52:57
a really interesting cross-section of people that I would say are kind of on
00:53:03
the frontier of tech that feel like it's not in the United States anymore and
00:53:08
they're looking for what feels like the wild west. Where where can we go? Where can we put down roots? Where can we
00:53:15
establish a new town for a new era? Because a lot of people view the US at
00:53:20
the end of a cycle. And it look it may not be a massive community today, but it's a burgeoning community. It's a
00:53:26
growing community and there is this really I think interesting maybe scary
00:53:32
trend line of folks um you know wanting to kind of see this stuff happen outside
00:53:37
the US and making an effort to put down roots elsewhere. I'm going to start my own little community
00:53:43
for Vikunia Vikunia and Wagyu. Those are the two
00:53:48
litmus tests for entry. Chimamathopouloolis. Apopoulos.
00:53:54
It's gonna be You could only wear Vikuna and you could only eat one. Chimathopolis. All right, everybody. Another amazing
00:54:01
episode. The Allin podcast is in the can. Love you besties.
00:54:06
Let your winners ride. Rainman David.
00:54:13
And it said, "We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. Queen of
00:54:21
your
00:54:26
besties are gone. That is my dog taking a notice in your driveway.
00:54:34
Oh man, my dasher will meet me up. We should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all
00:54:39
just useless. It's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow.
00:54:46
Wet your feet. We need to get murky's back.
00:54:59
I'm going all in.
