00:00:00
you know the the range of how many jobs
00:00:02
they would take away for a variety of
00:00:04
reasons maybe the largest is the birth
00:00:06
death model for businesses was going to
00:00:08
be somewhere between 350,000 and 1
00:00:11
million it comes in at
00:00:14
88,000 the economic data that comes out
00:00:17
keeps getting reforecast down so they
00:00:19
put out a provisional number or an
00:00:21
estimate and then when they finalize the
00:00:23
number 3 months or 6 months later it
00:00:25
always seems to go in One Direction
00:00:27
we've seen this over and over again with
00:00:29
new jobs being reforecast down and we
00:00:32
saw this with a q1 GDP we're in a lowkey
00:00:35
recession so I think that we're going to
00:00:38
probably go through a couple of very
00:00:40
difficult revisions of old data the
00:00:43
thing to remember about non-farm
00:00:45
payrolls isn't as much what the number
00:00:47
is but if you actually look to the
00:00:49
number of times it then gets revised the
00:00:51
reality is that these things get revised
00:00:53
constantly and right now we're in this
00:00:55
trend where we are overestimating and
00:00:57
revising down
