US Job Growth Revised Down by 818K!
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Episode Description
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Brief Summary
Job market forecasts are often overestimated and revised down, indicating a lowkey recession.
Key points
- Job Forecasting Trends. Economic data on job numbers is frequently revised downward, indicating a troubling trend.
Episode quotes
Transcript
you know the the range of how many jobs they would take away for a variety of reasons maybe the largest is the birth death model for businesses was going to be somewhere between 350,000 and 1 million it comes in at 88,000 the economic data that comes out keeps getting reforecast down so they put out a provisional number or an estimate and then when they finalize the number 3 months or 6 months later it always seems to go in One Direction we've seen this over and over again with new jobs being reforecast down and we saw this with a q1 GDP we're in a lowkey recession so I think that we're going to probably go through a couple of very difficult revisions of old data the
thing to remember about non-farm payrolls isn't as much what the number is but if you actually look to the number of times it then gets revised the reality is that these things get revised constantly and right now we're in this trend where we are overestimating and revising down
