E86: Macro outlook: jobs, housing, inflation + Dutch farmers protests & EU climate missteps
- Jul 7, 2022
- 1:23:33
- Full Episode
0:00 Bestie open: Sacks' shopping spree 2:15 Macro outlook: jobs, consumer sentiment, housing, inflation, finding a bottom 39:21 Turkish government finds ~694 million mt of rare earth reserves & EU reclassifies nuclear & natural gas as "green" 48:58 Dutch farmers protests: root causes, how to move forward with smarter legislation 1:09:39 Biden's decline, Bezos responds to Biden's tweet on bringing gas prices down
Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/jolts-job-openings-may-2022-.html https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/hire-seps-rates.htm https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-job-openings-dip-to-11-3-million-but-labor-market-still-historically-strong-11657122659 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/fed-sees-more-restrictive-rates-possible-if-inflation-persists https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cb-consumer-confidence-48 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-conference-board-june-2022-143536146.html https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/existing-home-sales#chart-existing-home-sales-vs-30yr-rate https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-drops-to-record-low-as-inflation-worries-grip-u-s-11656079725 https://www.forbes.com/sites/darreonnadavis/2022/07/05/88-of-americans-say-us-is-on-wrong-track/ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3525909-56-percent-in-new-poll-believe-us-is-in-recession/ https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1544057786065092609 https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101881567/Turkey-Discovers-694-million-mt-of-Rare-Earth-Element-Reserves-with-Infrastructure-Construction-Starting-This-Year/ https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1544380486654590983 https://mobile.twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1544573867804348416 https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/eu-parliament-vote-green-gas-nuclear-rules-2022-07-06/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-01/jpmorgan-sees-stratospheric-380-oil-on-worst-case-russian-cut https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/explainer-dutch-farmers-protesting-emissions-85848026 https://www.amazon.com/The-Alchemy-of-Air-Thomas-Hager-audiobook/dp/B0046Y0BP0/ref=sr_1_1 https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-22/eurizon-fund-holds-unloved-assets-to-beat-peers-in-esg-market https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/07/uk-boris-johnson-resignation/ https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1543263229006254080 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1543409762867494912 https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1525309091970699265 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1544370315379109888
Brief Summary
The episode discusses job openings, inflation, housing trends, and Biden's economic policies, highlighting disconnects in the current economic landscape.
Key points
- Job Openings vs. Unemployment. There are currently two job openings for every unemployed person in the U.S.
- San Francisco's Office Vacancy Crisis. By the end of the year, San Francisco could see 40% office vacancy due to remote work trends.
- Consumer Spending Trends. Despite economic concerns, consumer spending remains strong as people seek normalcy post-lockdown.
- Housing Market Concerns. The housing market shows signs of weakness as mortgage rates rise, impacting home sales.
- Job Loss Predictions. The potential for significant job losses looms, which could deepen the recession's impact.
- Musk and Bezos Sell Holdings. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have sold over $11 billion in holdings this year, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies.
Episode highlights
- Job Openings vs. UnemploymentThere are currently two job openings for every unemployed person in the U.S.“This is absolutely stunning!”3:00Jul 7, 2022
- San Francisco's Office Vacancy CrisisBy the end of the year, San Francisco could see 40% office vacancy due to remote work trends.“I've never heard of such a thing!”13:01Jul 7, 2022
- Consumer Spending TrendsDespite economic concerns, consumer spending remains strong as people seek normalcy post-lockdown.“People are really spending money.”19:18Jul 7, 2022
- Housing Market ConcernsThe housing market shows signs of weakness as mortgage rates rise, impacting home sales.“Home sales have started to show weakness.”26:46Jul 7, 2022
- Job Loss PredictionsThe potential for significant job losses looms, which could deepen the recession's impact.“What sort of job losses do we see?”28:30Jul 7, 2022
- Musk and Bezos Sell HoldingsElon Musk and Jeff Bezos have sold over $11 billion in holdings this year, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies.“You're either much smarter than them or you're being really really reckless.”36:47Jul 7, 2022
- Dutch Farmers RevoltDutch farmers protest against proposed emissions cuts that threaten their livelihoods, leading to significant unrest.“This is the first time we've seen government action of this scale.”50:54Jul 7, 2022
- Climate Change Action in EuropeThe EU is taking aggressive climate action, impacting farmers' livelihoods.“They're starting to take this sort of climate change action.”54:41Jul 7, 2022





