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with all of the tariffs the one thing that we haven't sufficiently talked about is there is a tremendous amount of
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corporate debt that supports these businesses today And you would say well if long-term rates go down there's no
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real risk But the tariff picture actually impacts revenues And the problem with that is that there's a lot
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of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and IBIDA And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of
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January which is the one risk that is uncontrollable is what happens to corporate debt and could we see a wave
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of defaults and a wave of action Best performing asset Everybody loves this one What do you got I would be long CDS
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I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next
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year I hope it doesn't happen I hope that this trade loses money but if it hits it will be the best performing
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asset of 2025 It has hit For every billion dollars of risk you would have put on would have cost you about a
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million And that million would have made you about $7 million in about 3 months Why is this important The CDS actually
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represents the structural risk in the United States corporate economy So when you see these spreads blowing out this
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is actually a very important warning sign This is what was the canary in the coal mine for the great financial crisis
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The tariff picture and the recession picture will get played out in this chart And I think it's something that
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folks can and should probably pay tremendous attention