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all right everybody welcome to your favorite podcast in the world's number one podcast the all-in podcast it's
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episode 1,790 oh wait that's just how it feels welcome to episode 179 with me today of course is your
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Sultan of science I don't know if that's a movie background or it's just his favorite vegetables what's going on
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there what's the crop that's AI generated it's AI generated crop okay great I'm trying AI backgrounds I'm
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going to try it out for a while with different props your fans are going to be crushed that you're not doing deep
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movie polls with us of course man about town DC new products being launched David
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saaks the Rainman yeah how you doing buddy good good yeah good week lots going on yeah yeah definitely a good
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week shth poopaa chairman dictator he puts the chairman in dictator I would like to take this
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opportunity to wish my child a happy birthday I absolutely love you well now the rest of us look like yeah great I've
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never done that before sax in your desk in your desk is a piece of paper with your children's names and their
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birthdays you want to pull it out I got three birthdays a year and I've never done
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one let your winners [Music] ride and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
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love [Music] you no no no but I'm saying it rarely lands on the same day today is the day
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today is the day today the day today is the day con congratulations child oh congratulations yeah how old Jam no
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gender name or any other specifications folks we can't we can't tip anybody off no pronouns no pronouns uh yes Abol so
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how are they them experiencing their birthday this child has experienced a wonderful and this child is an
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incredible person for whom I have tremendous admiration and love and compassion and
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hope for the future all right and did you order them some chicken fingers I cannot comment on who this
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person is chicken fingers are you talking of course about Phil helmuth your child Phil helm can we
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please talk about last weekend's festivities in what a disaster he is oh my God guys just so you guys know so we
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missed you last weekend we missed so much fun to we miss you on Saturday night Saturday night was really fun I
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had such a lovely time coming home to be totally honest with you we had a cabana
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set up on Saturday played blackjack I miss you guys too I had a fomo saw the videos it was so fun well you don't have
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to have too much fomo because Phil sent the entire group chat to pokernews.com they did an article twice the flop. org
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poker Dash update he leaked every single person who's there and the TW he's like look here's me and Elon
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Elon came by for my dinner no it was worse than that no it's worse than that he said I got to hang out with our guy
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Elon for 10 minutes and 14 seconds wait what he di he intercepted him at the valet wait
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what how many minutes God 10 minutes and 14 seconds he had the exact time down to
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the second oh my God I want to wish helmouth a happy birthday CU I did miss his 60th party yeah it's coming up bir
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good news is it wasn't actually his birthday it was Bill Gurley so he just hijacked Bill gurley's birthday I also
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got to enjoy for my first time ever uh the experience of bakarat which I've decided is the most d dgen game on earth
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it's literally the most you just flip a coins coins it's flipping coins well C you you make betting decisions all you
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do in bakarat is you say bank or player and then you freak yourself out about how you flip the cards and the smartest
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people I know on Earth are all sitting around this table at 2 3 in the morning saying turn this corner this way no no
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no no no turn it this way turn it this way there's two dots and they're debating the right way to flip
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a people on Earth no the Bak sweat is the most incredible performative act in the casino Weir yeah you're right
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everyone's got their own little technique about how they bend the cards the cards are all destroyed by the end
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of the deck they don't they get I go like this and I try to see curling your mustache like an evil
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vill and then you call out oh my God no spotter if you see a no spotter or two across so great and then you get to
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decide whether the bank turns over their cards and it what when they turn over then you lose a small house and then
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you're like oh let's try again yeah you're convincing yourself that you have all this control and ways to change the
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outcome literally flipping a carard well it's that's all it is high card it's even worse than that you're basically
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sitting down at the casino's table and then they tell you whether You've Won or lost and in order to convince yourself
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that that's not what's going on you have to play with the card but really they just tell you you either win or lose and
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I'm watching the smartest guys we know staring at the window at the little machine that tells you whether bank or
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player one and they're studying it rubbing their chin doing an analysis it's been black H is like I'm calling it now
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Bank bank player player player and all the guys like let's do it then everyone so helth asked us to play in
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the high stakes poker game on poker go so it was me helmuth Stanley Sammy house and then Jen Tilly and Nick airball and
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Robel so most of the guys from the hus G Plus gen Tilly and Nick airball Jennifer
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til is amazing what a great human listen to this well listen to this hand literally the second hand of the actual
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poker game GTI is in the big blind no sorry she's under the gun she raises Howen buold
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three bets it comes all the way around to me on the button I look and I have pocket kings oh I ship the whole
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cheeseburger comes back to Tilly she ships house ships listen to these hands Gentilly has Aces Jeff housenbold has
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Kings I have Kings oh my God never seen a cooler hand like this in my life and the second in the second hand of the
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game anyways wow don't worry guys I came back and I won G tripl up she triples up and then into
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lockdown mode the first time I ever play with her then I stacked her right I anyways well I don't want to reveal the
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game but it was it was wonderful it was fun I show up at a mutual friend of ours
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game and there's a like beautiful Porsche or something in the driveways a really notable car and the I I noticed
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on the license plate it says Deen but it's spelled with a J and I'm like oh degenerate what a great license plate I
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wonder who that is I go it's Jennifer she is so cool she's very Charming cool very Charming great
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actress movie she was in that's what it was yeah you don't have to ask me twice yeah exactly tour
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what a great gangster film yeah with uh Gina gersin I mean Gina gchen that's who
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that film that film oh my god well let's not get canceled here okay yeah um it is
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quite a film all right speaking of uh action big week the AI industrial complex is dominating our docket here
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apologies to Biden Ukraine and Nikki Hy but we got to go AI right now open AI launch chat GPT 40
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4.0 Monday three days after Sam wise came on Allin as a programming note and we'll go to freeberg about this we
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probably made a bit of a strategical or tactical error in not postponing his app
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appearance In fairness uh freeberg Samwise did tell us originally he was coming on to talk about those things but
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then it got pushed back anything you want to add to that as a programming note because people are wondering what
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happened I've been talking with Sam for a while a year about coming on the show and every time I see him I'm we're like
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hey you should come on the show he's like I want to come on the show okay let's find a date we never got a date
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that worked I saw him in March and he said hey I want to come on the show I said okay well come on let me know when
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works and a couple weeks later he's like what about this date in May and I'm like
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yeah that's that's fine we can make that work he's like well I've got a big announcement we're going to be doing and
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I was like Perfect come on the show that that that sounds great and then the um the night before he asked me he told me
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he texted me he's like hey we're actually not gonna have this announcement happen tomorrow it's going
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to be delayed he didn't tell me how long and I'm like well is it CH is it GPT 5 he's like no it's not gp5
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and I was like okay well you know come on the show anyway because he didn't tell me when he's doing the announcement
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or when it's being pushed to so it didn't seem like that big a deal and I thought we were just going to be able to
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have a good chat anyway so it's really unfortunate I think the fact that the announcement happened two days after and
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he had to stay quiet about it during our interview but um that's the story I think in the future if someone says
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they've got a big announcement to do we should probably push them uh if they if they have to something don't be but I
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don't think we're going to be doing a lot of these interviews anyway I think people clearly don't love them and it's
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better for us to just kind of out and talk I think I think if we had just gotten Sam on the day after the launch
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of GT4 Omni as opposed to what was it three days before yeah he could have talked much more freely about it and it
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would have been interesting yeah it was supposed to happen same day so it's unfortunate this all worked out this way
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the other little trick is to say you can tell us under embargo but my understanding is they were still doing
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the videos o over the weekend so I think those videos and stuff they were still figuring them out and so yeah's learned
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in terms of the interviews on the show just a recap for people we've done a dozen half of them have been
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presidential candidates sometimes they break out sometimes they don't we follow our interest and our passion here on the
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Pod it's got to be interesting for us too so if we think this person's going to be interesting we do it and yeah we
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understand you miss a news subject but yeah it is what it is and to your point a lot of the people that come on and
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increasingly a lot of people ask to come on because they know we're not journalists and so for all of those
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folks that expect us to be journalists that's not what we are we're for entrepreneurs we're four
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business people we're four friends we're four technologists we're four curious people we're four poker players but
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we're not four journalists and so we're going to ask whatever we feel like asking sometimes those things will touch
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a cord because it's what you wanted to have asked and sometimes we won't go to a place whether we didn't have time to
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or whether we forgot or whether we chose not to and I think it's important to have that disclaimer like we have day
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jobs and this is what we do to Coal us a bunch of information in the way that we're thinking about the
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world so we are not journalists so please don't have that I think what that means is that if the guest doesn't want
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to talk about something we're not going to start peppering him with gotcha questions and things like that I
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appeared at a conference a couple of days ago uh to promote glue which we'll get to and the first half of the
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conversation was like a normal conversation about what we were launching and then the second half was
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basically the reporter peppering me with fastball questions which is fine I knew
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what I was signing up for it's a totally different style it's a totally different
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style than coming on the Pod just having a normal conversation but it's not really our job to make somebody open up
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if they don't want to talk what was the spiciest question sax that what was the fast ball anything come close to your
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head she no I mean it's not worth really getting into you can watch it on yeah I
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was just curious like look I I kind of like sometimes when reporters pitch me fast balls because yeah you can strike
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out or you can hit out of the park when they do that that's an important part here I I think you know as a former
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editor and chief journalist myself I sometimes like to ask I would say a challenging question in a respectful way
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I did that for example vake you know just clarifying his thoughts on trans and gay rights wasn't disrespectful was
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thoughtful would you consider it spicy or hardcore I don't think it was Hardcore he likes to talk about because
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no but that's because you asked it from a position of curiosity you weren't trying to catch the guy no see the
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difference I'm actually interested in his opinion that's this is my point that's why it comes out differently and
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that's why I think people enjoy these conversations and sometimes we don't get to the other kind of answer because I'm
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not interested in trying to got you somebody that's working hard I always have the same conditions when I do
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interviews which is I don't clear questions and I don't let people edit it but you know everybody's got a different
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view on how to do interviews and feel differ if you like it you like it if you like Lex Freedman version or Tim Ferris
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version or you prefer you know fox or CNN go go watch those interviews there you can have a whole range of different
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interviews and interview Styles available to you in the media landscape we are but one Sam Weiss mentioned on
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the Pod last week that the next big model might not be called GPT 5 so on Monday they launched GPT 4 o uh the O
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stands for Omni it's everything you love about tech it's faster it's cheaper it's
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better but uh from my perspective the the the real show was the massive amount of progress they made on the the
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uiux the O stands for Omni as in omnivore it takes in audio text images even your desktop and video from your
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camera to inform what it's doing you can consider it like 360 degree AI producer
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Nick will show a couple of videos while I describe them here before we go to the
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besties for their reaction to the announcement first they made great progress in solving the CB problem we
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mentioned last week that's where like when you use Siri or any of these tools you say you know hey J GPT what's 2 plus
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two over and you have to wait and then if you talk over each other it breaks they now have that working much smoother
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they did an example of counting where they said speed up slow down they did a translator that worked really well I
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would like you to function as a translator I have a friend here who only speaks Italian and I only speak English
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and uh every time you hear English I want you to translate it to Italian and if you hear Italian I want you to
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translate it back to English is that good perfecto Mike she wonders if whales could talk
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what would they tell us um they might ask uh how do we solve linear equations certainly yes great looks like
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works I think dingo stock took a hit during that most impressive to me at least and also I had Su MRA on my other
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podcast and we talked about it was their desktop and IOS app what this app does is fascinating it watches your desktop
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on your Macintosh or on your iPad or iPhone and it does things like adaptive learning
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here's a clip of s KH from KH Academy and his son basically uh using a drawing app to do some arithmetic or or geometry
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and it does adaptive learning and basically makes a personal coach because the app is watching his son try to solve
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a problem I'm here with my son and I'd love you to tutor him on this math problem but don't give him the answer
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you can ask questions and nudge him in the right direction but I really want to make sure he understands it himself and
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he's here in the room so you can talk to him directly can you first identify which sides of the triangle are
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the opposite adjacent and hypotenuse relative to angle Alpha all right so I'm pretty sure this is the angle Alpha
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right here right correct now looking at the triangle which side do you think is the
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hypotenuse um remember the hypoten I'm not totally sure I think I think it might be this
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one but I really am not sure this side AC you're close actually side AC is called
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the adjacent side to the angle Alpha the hypotenuse is the longest side of a right triangle and is directly opposite
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the right angle can you find which one is the hypotenuse oh okay I see so um I think the hypotenuse is this really long
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side from A to B would that be correct exactly well done it can also participate in Zoom calls explain charts
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all that great stuff and so it's going to be your guide on the side it's it's going to be a present you know
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personality while you're using your apps it's really impressive I have to say so
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I guess let's start freeberg with your takeaways on all of these innovations that we saw I think it's become quite
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apparent that there's an evolution underway in model architecture we've and I think you may
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remember we talked about this briefly with Sam last week but we're moving away from these very
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big bulky models that are released every couple of months or quarters and cost a
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lot of money to rebuild every time they get re-released towards uh a system of models so this multimodal system
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basically leverages several models at once that work together or that are linked together uh to respond to the
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inputs and to provide some generative output and that those individual models themselves can be continuously tuned and
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or continuously updated so rather than have you know hey there's this big new release that just happened this new
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model just got trained cost $10 million to train it it's been pushed these models can be upgraded um with tuning
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with upgrade features and then link together with other new smaller models that are perhaps specialized for
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specific tasks like doing mathematics or rendering an image or rendering a movie
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and so I think what we're going to see is soon more of an obfuscation of the individual
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models and more of this general service type approach where the updates are happening in in in a more continuous
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fashion I think this is the first step of open AI taking that architectural approach with uh GPT 40 and what's
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behind the curtains we don't know we don't know how many models are there we don't know how frequently they're being
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changed whether they're being changed through actually upgrading the parameters or whether they're being
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fine-tuned and so this seems to be pretty obvious if you look at this link one of the criticisms that initially
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came out when they released GPT 40 was that there was some performance degradation and Stanford actually runs
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this massive multitask language understanding assessment and they publish it I think
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daily or pretty frequently on how all the models perform and you can see the scorecard here that GPT 40 actually
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outperforms GPT 4 and so this goes counter to some of the narrative that in order to get some of the performance
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improvements and speed improvements they got in 40 that they actually made the model worse and it seems actually the
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opposite is true that the model's gotten slightly better it still underperforms Cloud 3 Opus which uh you can see here
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ranks top of these charts but there's lots of different charts all the companies publish their own charts they
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all claim that they're better than everyone else but I like Stanford because it's independent sh any thoughts
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uh after seeing it and in combination with our interview do you think chat GPT is running away with the consumer
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experience or do you think this is like neck and neck with some of the other players not to tell Tales out of school
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but somebody that we all know in our group chat hosted something about the fact that the consumer growth had
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stalled I don't know how they knew that that they maybe they got some data or maybe they're an investor you you guys
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know what I'm talking about and and they said that they're trying to reinvigorate
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growth into the consumer app into at open AI I mean any insights as to why it might be plateauing in your
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perspective I wrote this in my annual letter but there are these phases growth and when you look at like social
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networks as a perfect example frster was magical when it was first created right
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and then you had Myspace that just ran circles around them because frer didn't really invest the money and the quality
00:20:44
that it took to to create a Moe and then Myspace really wasn't able to compete so we were you know Facebook
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we were the eighth or ninth when we showed up on the scene and we ran circles around
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everybody I think what it means is that there are these phases of product development
00:21:01
which exist in many markets this Market I think is going through the same thing and right now we're in the first what I
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would call primordial ooze phase which is everybody's kind of like running around like a chicken with their heads
00:21:13
cut off there's all these core basic capabilities that are still so magical when you see them but we all know that
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five and 10 years from now these things will be table sticks right and what freeberg just showed is a
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table of many companies and many trillions of market cap all effectively running to the same destination so I
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think where we are is probably within two years of where the basic building blocks are
00:21:39
standardized and then I think the real businesses get built so I will maintain my perspective here which is the quote
00:21:46
unquote Facebook of AI has yet to be created okay and here it is chat BT web visits as you can see have plateaued
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this data is similar web I would agree with you jamath it seems like the use cases and the lookie L who were just
00:22:04
trying this software because they heard about it they've gone away and then we have to find actual use cases Sachs I'm
00:22:10
wondering but our friend Jason just to kind of complete the thought said something about the premium conversion
00:22:15
right that's what he said I don't know how he knew that paid paid version to be clear paid versus free and then what Sam
00:22:21
said on the podcast last week was it seems like whenever they come out with something new the old stuff becomes free
00:22:27
in my talk with Sunny this week he mentioned that these new models are so much more efficient that you actually
00:22:34
can throw the old model in the garbage garbage because it's so inefficient and these are now becoming about 90% cheaper
00:22:42
every year which means every two years these things are going be 99% cheaper and better y yep and it might open AI
00:22:50
sacks on a strategic level is going to make all this free or close to free and maybe just charge for multiplayer
00:22:58
version that seems to be where it's heading you don't have to log in to use 3.5 you
00:23:02
don't have to log in to use uh Google Ser no you do have to log in still on Google services but I think these are
00:23:08
going to just be free so on a product basis what are your thoughts and then maybe could talk about free to pay do
00:23:13
you think everybody in the world is going to pay 20 30 40 bucks 500 a year 200 a year to have one of these or are
00:23:19
they just going to all be free well I think you're assuming there that the long-term business model of open AI is
00:23:25
in you to see subscriptions and I think that's probably the least attractive business model they have available to
00:23:31
them it's sort of the first one and the most obvious one because they put out chat GPT and then it's pretty easy just
00:23:37
to roll out a premium version but in my experience BTC subscriptions it's just not a very attractive business model
00:23:44
because consumers just aren't willing to pay a lot and they have high churn rates
00:23:48
and there's no possibility of expansion really so I suspect they're going to move in more of a B2B Direction over
00:23:54
time because that's where the real money is and probably the way they do that is
00:23:58
is by uh monetizing all the apps that are built on top of it and I think that in that sense GPT
00:24:05
40 is a really important innovation by the way the the O stands for Omni which I think stands for Omni
00:24:13
Channel I think you may have said omnivore kind yes it's Omni yeah which means all the different media types
00:24:20
current currently coming in right like there that's the difference it's not like you just give it an image or give
00:24:25
it a video it's absorbing all those at the same time in par I believe that's right so there's three big Innovations
00:24:31
with this model right so one is Omni Channel which means text audio video and images second it's more conversational
00:24:40
like it understands the tone of people talking it understands sort of sentiment in a way it didn't before and then the
00:24:47
third thing which is really important is that it's just much faster more performant than the previous version gp4
00:24:53
turbo in the speed test they say it's twice as fast we've played with it at glue we can talk about that in a minute
00:24:58
and it feels 10 times as fast it is much faster but it's the combination of all three of these things that really makes
00:25:05
some magical experience is possible because when you increase the speed of processing you can now actually have
00:25:12
conversations with it in a much more natural way before it was the the models were just too slow so there'd be a long
00:25:18
delay after every prompt yeah so now like you showed it can do things like you point the camera at a a Blackboard
00:25:26
or something with math equations on it it and it can walk you through how to solve that problem or two people can be
00:25:33
talking and it does real-time translation you know there's that old saying that every Star Trek technology
00:25:39
eventually becomes true they've just basically invented the whole natural language real time yes Universal
00:25:44
translator yeah it's so anyway so those are some interesting use cases but I just think they're going to be able to
00:25:50
unleash a whole lot of new applications and if they're metering the usage of the
00:25:57
models and providing the best Dev tools I think there is a business model there this thing is moving so FAS they in like
00:26:02
Leonardo DiCaprio mode every two years they throw the old model away okay let's uh keep thank you sax a
00:26:10
b is this thing did you write that ahead of time or in the moment that good just just one one point
00:26:18
on that is there are a whole bunch of of startups out there that were creating virtual customer support agents and they
00:26:28
been spending the last couple of years working on trying to make those agents more conversational quicker more
00:26:35
responsive I think their product road maps just became obsolete now that's not to say there isn't more work for them to
00:26:41
do in workflow in terms of integrating the AI with customer support tools and doing that last mile of customizing the
00:26:51
model for the vertical specific problems of customer support but my guess is that
00:26:57
hundreds of Millions dollars of R&D just went out the window and probably this is
00:27:03
the best time to be creating a customer support agent company if you're doing it
00:27:06
two years ago five years ago your work has just like been well that is the thing of this pace like you know you
00:27:12
used to have to throw away client server stuff or you know whatever you had a web
00:27:16
based thing you you get an app out you throw away some of the old code but this is like every 18 months your work has
00:27:21
been replaced if you're an app developer the key thing to understand is where does model Innovation end and your
00:27:28
Innovation begin because if you get that wrong you'll end up doing a bunch of stuff that the model will just obsolete
00:27:35
in a few mons think you're totally right I think that's such a really important observation that's why I think the
00:27:40
incentive for these folks is going to be to push this stuff into the open source
00:27:44
because if you if you solve a problem that's operationally necessary for your business but it isn't the core part of
00:27:51
your business what incentive do you have to really keep investing in this for the
00:27:55
next 5 and 10 years to improve it you're much better off like Clara for example right we talked about the in The Amazing
00:28:02
Improvement and savings that Clara had by improving customer support release it in the open source guys let the rest of
00:28:09
the community take it over so that it's available to everybody else otherwise you're going to be stuck supporting it
00:28:14
and then if and when you ever wanted to switch out a model you know GPT 40 for to 40 to Claude to llama it's going to
00:28:23
be near impossible and it's going to be costly so I I also think SX the incentive to just push towards open
00:28:29
source in this market if you will is so much more meaningful than any other Market yeah I mean listen you you were
00:28:37
there when I I think you were there at Facebook when they did the open compute project and they just were
00:28:42
like talk about talk about torching an entire Market explain what it is so there was this moment where when you
00:28:50
were trying to build data centers you'd have these like oneu rack mounted kind of like machines that that you used and
00:28:57
what Facebook obs OB ered was there was only a handful of companies that provided it and so it was unnecessarily
00:29:02
expensive and so Facebook just designed their own and then release the specs online just kind of said here it is and
00:29:08
they went to these Taiwanese manufacturers and other folks and said please make these for your Cost Plus a
00:29:14
few bucks and it was revolutionary in that market because it allowed this open platform to sort of embrace this very
00:29:22
critical element that everybody needs and and I think there's going to be a lot of these examples
00:29:28
inside of AI because the costs are so extreme so much more than just building a data center for a traditional web app
00:29:35
that the incentives to do it are just so so meaningful yeah and I just showed it on
00:29:40
the screen sax you've actually been dancing along this line last night I was using your new slack killer or coexist
00:29:47
I'm not sure it feels like a slack killer to me because I'm moving my company to it on over the weekend we're
00:29:51
moving to glue and you and I were doing some very I think I may need to wet my beak on this one we want you to W your
00:29:59
beak it feels like aund bagger to me uh I'm in killer that's the way we're thinking about it killer ask because Jal
00:30:07
jcal can you do that again in Christopher Walkin voice please I get to wet my beak it's like a 100x sliding 500
00:30:16
wow saxs tell me about product decisions where does the AI Ed and your product begin yeah well it's a good point I mean
00:30:27
I I think where the AI ends we want to use the most powerful AI models possible and we want to focus on Enterprise chat
00:30:35
so you could think of us as for sure a slack killer or slack competitor it say that slack wasn't built for the AI era
00:30:42
glue is AI native what does that mean no channels you know I showed this to jth the first thing you said is you add me
00:30:48
at no channels right people are so sick of channels you have to keep up with all
00:30:52
these hundreds and hundreds of channels and the real problem with channels is there's one thread in a channel that you
00:30:57
want to see in order to see it you have to join the whole channnel and now you're getting all this noise people
00:31:02
just want the threads so if you look at what's the chat model inside of chat GPT
00:31:06
it's just threads right you create a topic based thread in chat GPT the AI comes up with a name for it puts it in
00:31:14
the sidebar and then if you want to talk about something else you create a new chat that's exactly the way that glue
00:31:19
works it's just multiplayer you just put the groups and individuals you want on the thread let me just show you real
00:31:25
quick here's my uh glue here and you can see that in the sidebar I've got all the
00:31:29
threads that I've been involved in and like I said you can address them to multiple people or groups and then
00:31:34
you've got the chat here now we've also fully integrated Ai and so Nick who's our producer just in this thread said at
00:31:42
glue AI what countries to saaks talk about most in episodes episodes is a group we created to be the repository of
00:31:49
all of the transcripts of our episodes and so glue did a search and it said David Sachs frequently discusses
00:31:57
Ukraine why the most yeah really so then so then Nick said be more specific about
00:32:02
Sach stance on Ukraine Russia War oh boy and it's gonna overload the server well
00:32:08
here it said here David sax has articulated a nuance and critical perspective on the Ukraine Russia War
00:32:12
across various episodes of the all and pod here are some key points encapsulating his stance and it like
00:32:18
nailed it it's talked about prevention through diplomacy opposition to Nato expansion humanitarian concerns
00:32:24
skepticism military intervention peace de proposal you know I'll I'll copy and paste this onto Twitter X later today
00:32:31
but the point is it like nailed it across all these different episodes and then this a feature of glue it provided
00:32:38
sources so it CES where it got all the information from so imagine you know we're we're doing this for the all-in
00:32:45
Pod but you could imagine that instead of it being transcripts of a podcast it could be your work documents you now
00:32:52
have in your main chat the ability just to ask hey act glue AI remind me where we left that project or tell me who the
00:33:00
expert is on this subject matter or who's contributed the most to this project I've actually figured out using
00:33:05
glue AI who's contributed the most deal flow at craft is pretty amazing now let me show you like some the answer what's
00:33:12
the answer I'm not gonna say here I think it's Brian Brian's my guy those two my guy I want if I got go Daniel and
00:33:22
Brian boom bo that's how I get sacks on the line okay you take Daniel I'll hire Brian
00:33:28
reconstitute craft we'll call itft all right look let me let me show you a cple SX I just looked at the um chat jp4
00:33:39
Omni server and when you did that query it actually rolled its eyes keep going okay hell so so we talked about how chbt
00:33:48
40 understands sentiment in conversations and I think this is a really good example so Evan who's my
00:33:54
co-founder at glue was just testing this for us and he asked what is each besties
00:33:59
personality type based on conversations and episodes and first of all it figured
00:34:03
out who the besties are like we didn't program that it just figured it out on its own which is pretty impressive and
00:34:09
here's what I said about each bestie's personality so it says Jason calanis role the moderator and Entertainer
00:34:16
personality traits charismatic humorous Lively and the glue of the group often praise often pra for his ability to make
00:34:22
the podcast entertaining and keep the conversation flowing Jason's energy and ability to bring humor and disc discusss
00:34:27
or key elements that Define his role in the podcast comments he's acknowledged for his role in bringing the group
00:34:31
together jamaath ptia the Visionary and Hustler personality TR traits insightful
00:34:36
driven persistent Chamas Relentless drive and ability to hustle admire by your peers Mak him a core part of the
00:34:41
podcast intellectual discussions I'll skip me but does freeberg the pragmatic scientist and realist pragmatic
00:34:47
methodical and a bit reserved oh freeberg is often the voice of reason bringing a scientific and realistic
00:34:52
perspective the discussion he focuses on analysis logical reasoning and then it CES where it got this from
00:34:59
and it says here overall the dynamic between the four besties creates a well-rounded and engaging podcast with
00:35:04
each member bringing their unique strengths and personality traits at the table I think that's pretty incredible
00:35:08
how woke is this have you uh have you put any rails on or is this just pure chat GPT 40 combined with the data yeah
00:35:18
yeah so what we're doing here is we're wrapping chat GPT 40 with glue features that we've implemented to get the most
00:35:26
out of the conversation there's things we have to do to scope the The Prompt and then we're using a retrieval
00:35:33
augmented generation service called raggi which does rag as a service that basically slurps in our transcripts and
00:35:41
makes them accessible to the AI so um that's basically the stack that we're using but as the models get better and
00:35:47
better glue just gets better and better again can I can I just make a comment on
00:35:50
this it's just so clean jcal was the key for me in abandoning slack he told me two or three years ago he called me and
00:36:01
he said I have you can tell me the exact channels I eliminated some channels at work
00:36:06
random there was like two or three channels at your your slack instance wasn't allowed to have and I was like
00:36:13
this is genius and I went in and I was like all of our companies should just eliminate these channels and we could
00:36:18
only get like 20% or 30% compliance but it really started to turn me off slack because I would get caught in these
00:36:24
threads that were just so totally useless and I thought why aren't people working and this is really great because
00:36:32
you cannot BL on about nonsense in glue which I find really useful well this is what happens when slack we used it at
00:36:38
8090 just so you know so we were the we got into the early get into slack too much people start to think slack is the
00:36:45
job and replying to slacks and having conversations is the job when there's actually a job to be done there's a job
00:36:50
to be done yeah and so it's important and what I liked about this implementation saxs was it's like the
00:36:56
ability to make a feed or a data source inside of your communication platform so
00:37:03
the fact that you imported all of the episodes and their transcripts is great but what I want is like our HubSpot or
00:37:09
our cell CRM I want our zenes I want our LinkedIn jobs and our LinkedIn job applications I want our notion I want
00:37:18
our Koda to each have the ability and when I was using it last night what you do is you use the at symbol to evoke and
00:37:26
to summon in a way it's like summoning Beetle Juice So you summon your AI but then you tell it what data set you want
00:37:33
to go after so you say you know at AI let's talk about I don't know how do you manage your deal flow at craft do you
00:37:42
use software like CRM software to manage deals Brian we just do it all glue but we do it all in glue so it's already
00:37:48
right there but you're right so so the the first thing that glue AI has access to is all of your chat history which is
00:37:54
amazing because you get like you know then can look at all your attachments and we've got I think six Integrations
00:38:01
at launch and there'll be more so yeah like all of your Enterprise data will be there in the short term you're right you
00:38:05
have to summon the repository by app mentioning because the AI needs a little bit of help of where to look but in the
00:38:11
future it's going to figure it out on its own so it's just GNA become more and more seamless but it'll insert itself so
00:38:16
we have a discussion about sales and then you might have a sales bot that says hey by the way nobody's called this
00:38:22
client in three months well that's where I want to go with it is I call that prompt lless which is want the AI just
00:38:28
to chime in when it determines that it has relevant information and can help the team even if it hasn't been summoned
00:38:34
yet but we need some model Improvement for that frankly I mean we'll be able to get there by GPT 5 but that's totally
00:38:40
where this is headed I'll show you just one more fun example if I could let me just show you this so I asked it to to
00:38:47
write a letter to Lena KH to be a guest at the all-in summit and I told it mention positive things we've said about
00:38:56
Lena KH in episodes of the all-in Pod and so it wrote this letter dear chair con we hope
00:39:04
this message finds you well on behalf the host the all in pod we excited an invitation for you to speak at the
00:39:08
upcoming all in Summit and then it says in our conversations we have frequently highlighted your impressive credentials
00:39:14
and the impactful work you've undertaken for example in episode 36 we acknowledge
00:39:19
your trailblazing role and so the letter was able to quote episodes of the all-in Pod just without
00:39:26
anyone having to go do that research and figure out like what would be the best because I told it only say positive
00:39:31
things don't say anything negative and then and then it said warmer guards and it said who the four besties were again
00:39:36
we never told it who the besties are we just said write us a letter so it's pretty incredible now this is just an
00:39:43
example with the all-in Pod think about any work context where the AI has access
00:39:48
to your previous work documents it's pretty amazing what it can do well I mean it is kind of in the name like this
00:39:55
is glue put you together and slack is where you slack up makes total sense the brands give you a little bit of a tip we
00:40:01
should have seen it coming with slack totally we have a breaking news story it's a breaking news story it's an Allin
00:40:11
exclusive today on the program I got breaking news coming in fredberg your life's work saxs did his uh product
00:40:19
review now it's your turn freeberg we got breaking news coming in I did promise you that when ohal decides to
00:40:26
come out of St he and explains what we've done and what we're doing I would do it here on the all-in Pod first
00:40:34
before the in exclusive all in exclusive so basically by the time this pod airs we're gonna be
00:40:43
announcing what ohal has been developing for the past five years and has had an incredible breakthrough in which is
00:40:49
basically a new technology in agriculture and we call it boosted breeding I'm going to take a couple
00:40:55
minutes just to talk through what we discovered or invented at ohal and why it's
00:41:02
important and the kind of significant implications for it but basically five years ago we had this theory that we
00:41:10
could change how plants reproduce and in doing so we would be able to allow plants to pass 100% of their genes to
00:41:21
their offspring rather than just half their genes to their offspring and if we could do that then all the genes from
00:41:27
the mother and all the genes from the father would combine in The Offspring rather than just half the genes from the
00:41:32
mother and half the genes from the father and this would radically transform crop yield and improve the
00:41:39
health and the size of the plants which could have a huge impact on agriculture because yield the size of the plants
00:41:45
ultimately drives productivity per acre revenue for Farmers cost of Food calorie
00:41:50
production sustainability Etc so this image just shows generally how reproduction Works you've got two
00:41:56
parents you get a random selection of half of the DNA from the mother and a random
00:42:03
selection of half the DNA from the father so you never know which half you're going to get from the mother or
00:42:06
which half you're going to get from the father that's why when people have kids every kid looks different and then those
00:42:12
two halves come together and they form The Offspring so every time a new child is born every time a plant has Offspring
00:42:19
you end up with different genetics and this is the problem with plant breeding let's say that you have a bunch of gen
00:42:26
in one plant that are disease resistant a bunch of genes in the other plant that
00:42:29
are drought resistant and you want to try and get them together today the way we do that in agriculture is we spend
00:42:35
decades trying to do plant breeding where we try and rind all these different crosses find the ones that
00:42:40
have the good genes find the other ones that have the good genes and try and keep combining them and it can take
00:42:44
forever and it may never happen that you can get all the good genes together in one plant to make it both disease
00:42:50
resistant and Dr resistant so what we did is we came up with this theory that we could actually change the genetics of
00:42:57
the parent plants we would apply some proteins to the plants and those proteins would switch off the
00:43:04
reproductive circuits that cause the plants to split its genes and as a result the parent plants give 100% of
00:43:12
their DNA to their offspring so The Offspring Have double the DNA of either parent you get all the genes from the
00:43:19
mother all the genes from the father and finally after years of toiling away at trying to get this thing to work and all
00:43:25
these experiments and all these approaches is we finally got it to work and we started collecting data on it and
00:43:31
the data is ridiculous like the Y on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100% or more just to give you a sense
00:43:39
like in the the corn seed industry breeders that are breeding corn or spending $3 billion doar a year on
00:43:45
breeding and they're getting maybe one and a half% yield gain per year with our system we we are seeing 50 to 100% jump
00:43:52
in the size of these plants it's pretty incredible here's an example this is a little weed that we that you do exper
00:43:57
with in agriculture called a rabid dosis so it's really easy to work with and you
00:44:01
can see that what we have on the top are those two parents A and B and then we applied our boosted technology to them
00:44:08
and combined them and we ended up with that Offspring called boosted ABS you can see that that plant on the right is
00:44:12
much bigger it's got bigger leaves it's healthier looking Etc fre ask you a question does that mean that the boosted
00:44:17
one has twice the number of chromosomes As A and B exactly right so is that like
00:44:23
a new species then yeah so um it's with twice the chromosomes yeah it's it's called poly so we actually see this
00:44:31
happen from time to time in nature for example humans have two sets of chromosomes right so does corn so do
00:44:38
many other species somewhere along the evolutionary history wheat doubled and then doubled again and
00:44:46
you end up actually in wheat having six sets of chromosomes wheat is what's called a hexaploid potatoes are a tetrol
00:44:53
they have four sets of chromosomes and strawberries are an octoploid they have eight and some plants have as many as 24
00:44:59
sets of chromosomes so certain plant species have this really weird thing that might happen from time to time in
00:45:05
evolution where they double their their DNA naturally and so what we've effectively done is just kind of Applied
00:45:11
a protein to to make it happen and bring the correct two plants together when we
00:45:15
make it happen and so this this could only happen for a plant right this could never happen with an animal it wouldn't
00:45:20
it wouldn't work in animals it works in Plants okay and one way you can think about plant genetics is all the genes
00:45:27
are sort of like tools in a toolbox the more tools you give the plant the more it is it has available to it to survive
00:45:33
in any given second to deal with drought or hot weather or cold weather Etc and so every given second the more tools or
00:45:41
the more genes the plant has that are beneficial the more likely it is to keep growing and keep growing and that plays
00:45:46
out over the lifetime of the plant with bigger bigger leaves and bigger you know
00:45:50
grows taller but more importantly if you look at the bottom the seeds get bigger
00:45:53
and in most crops what we're harvesting is the seed that's true and you know corn and many other crops and so seeing
00:46:00
over a 40% increase in seed in this little weed was a really big deal but then we did it in potato and potato is a
00:46:06
crazy result potato is the third largest source of calories on Earth and so we took two potatoes that you see here in
00:46:12
the middle a and CD we applied our boosted technology to it to each of them and put them together and you end up
00:46:18
with this potato ABCD that's the boosted potato and as you can see these were all
00:46:22
planted on the same date and the boosted potato is much bigger than all the other
00:46:27
potatoes here including a market variety that we show on the far right that's what's typically grown in the field now
00:46:32
here's what's most important when you look under the ground and you harvest the potatoes you can see that that AB
00:46:37
potato only had 33 grams CD had n grams so each parent had 33 and9 grams potato but the boosted Offspring had 682 grams
00:46:48
of potato the yield gain was insane and so you could see this being obviously hugely beneficial for Humanity potatoes
00:46:57
being the third largest source of calories Indian potato farmers are growing one acre of potato in India they
00:47:03
eat potato two meals a day in Africa potato is a food staple so around the world we've had a really tough time
00:47:10
breeding potatoes and improving the yield with our system we've seen incredible yield gains in potato almost
00:47:15
overnight and the other big are those potatoes those are normaliz potatoes that you see there those are like you
00:47:21
know table potatoes basically that looks like a rusted potato right there that's
00:47:25
like a normal siiz rust it started like a little creamer potato basically and you blew it up into a
00:47:31
rusted potato is that yeah so the genetics on AB you can see they're like little purple tiny little purple
00:47:38
potatoes the genetics on CD are like these little white you know tiny little ball potatoes but when you put those two
00:47:43
together with boosted and you combine all the DNA from Ab and all the DNA from CD you get this crazy high yielding
00:47:49
potato ABCD which by the way is higher yielding than the market variety that's usually grown in the field on the far
00:47:55
right so why not just grow russet potatoes then we are and so we're working on doing this with russet we're
00:48:00
working on doing this with every major potato line sorry um the the the the Improvement you'll see is actually in
00:48:05
yield so it's not the size of the potato it's the number of potatoes that are being made um and so you'll see he acre
00:48:11
or something like that like the exactly you know projects in the 60s and 70s sh you know how you can tell freeberg is
00:48:17
onto something here he got David saaks to pay attention during it this is a this gonna be a deck oford
00:48:23
if saak is awake saak is like how do I wet my be s is interrogating the potato lines I've never what's going on I think
00:48:30
J is interesting but so have you tried these potatoes do they taste different oh no they're awesome yeah they're
00:48:36
they're potatoes and we do a lot of analysis sprouted any horns yet or anything like that
00:48:41
no I mean again one of the other advantages of the system that we've developed let me go back here and I just
00:48:48
want to take two seconds on this one of the other things this unlocks is creating actual seed that you can put in
00:48:55
the ground in CRS that you can't do that in today so potatoes the third largest source of calories but the way we grow
00:49:01
potatoes you guys remember the movie The Maran you chop up potatoes and you put them back in the ground because the seed
00:49:07
that comes out of a potato which grows on the top in the flow every one of those seed is genetically different
00:49:12
because of what I just showed on this chart right you get half the DNA from the mother half the DNA from the father
00:49:16
so every seed has different genetics so there's no potato seed industry today and potato is like a hundred billion
00:49:22
Doll Market with our system not only can we make potatoes higher yield and make them disease resistant what we also make
00:49:30
is perfect seed so farmers can now plant seed in the ground which saves them about 20% of Revenue takes out all the
00:49:36
disease risk and makes things much more affordable and easier to manage for Farmers so it creates entirely new seed
00:49:42
Industries so we're going to be applying this boosted technology that we've discovered across nearly every major
00:49:47
crop worldwide it'll both increase yield but it will also have a massive impact on the ability to actually deliver seed
00:49:56
and help farmers and make food prices lower and improve sustainability no it's it's actually
00:50:02
cheaper so higher Yi lower cost do you need more water less water less land less energy do you need more
00:50:11
fertilizer fertilizer usually scales with biomass but these sorts of systems should be more efficient so fertilizer
00:50:17
use per pound produced should go down significantly as we get to to commercial trials with all this stuff and we're
00:50:24
doing this across many crops so there's a lot of work to do in terms of like how
00:50:28
do you scale the field tell us about the the patents and how important patents play a role in this because
00:50:37
isn't it like like one of monsanto's big things like they just go and Sue everybody into the ground or whatever
00:50:42
like I'm an answer you one second I'm just goingon to switch my headset it just died wow we went from sachs's Bots
00:50:47
to free BG's crops epode I'm glad we're doing him second cuz all of a sudden like group
00:50:53
chat doesn't seem very important yeah wow he just he just solved the whole Ukraine crisis
00:50:59
here we're going to be able to grow wheat in the desert and in the rainforest he solved the world food
00:51:05
problem yeah saaks what if you what did you do for the last six months yeah we made Enterprise chat a little better but
00:51:10
we added AI to Enterprise chat we cleaned up your slack so yeah when you invest we've invested a ton of money
00:51:16
this was stealth for five years we put a ton of money into this business so when
00:51:20
you invest that um I mean north of 50 North North of 50 yeah 50 million five years and you don't have a product in
00:51:28
market yet wow that's some we actually have some product yeah so I haven't talked about the way we've been making
00:51:32
money in some of the business we've been doing okay let me just make sure this is
00:51:36
like clear so that last photo you showed with the different types of potatoes you had created the super huge
00:51:43
ones but you're saying that the the yield benefit here is just you create a much bigger hardier plant that's capable
00:51:49
of producing many potatoes but the size of the potatoes doesn't change you can control for that when you breed so the
00:51:56
selection of what plants you put together in the boosted system allows you to decide do you want small medium
00:52:00
large that's all part of the the design of which plants do you want to combine okay because your goal is not to turn
00:52:06
like a rusted potato into like a watermelon or something like that no no the goal is to make more russed potato
00:52:11
per acre so that we use less water we use less land farmers can make more money people pay less for food that's
00:52:17
the goal and so it's all about yield it's not about changing the characteristics there are some crops
00:52:22
where you want to change the characteristics like you might want to make bigger corn kernels and bigger cobs
00:52:27
on the corn which is another thing that we've done and that's actually been published in our patent and the Reason
00:52:32
by the way I'm talking about all this is some of our patents started to get published last week and so when that
00:52:37
came out the word started to get out and that's why we decided to get public with
00:52:40
what we've done because it's now coming out in the open you mentioned something briefly there about where different
00:52:48
crops can be planted you know we had these big talks about wheat and corn they're only available in very specific
00:52:56
s you know north of the equator the camp jungles camp in obviously polar or desert extremes so if you're successful
00:53:03
what would this do for on a global basis where these crops are made because remember this whole discussion about
00:53:12
Ukraine question totally the Wheat Belly of uh Europe the Cradle of wheat yeah it's a great question I'm so glad you
00:53:18
asked it because that's one of the key drivers for the business is that we can now make crops adapted to all sorts of
00:53:24
new environments that you otherwise food today there's close to somewhere between
00:53:29
800 million and a billion people that are malnourished that means they living on less than 1200 calories a day for
00:53:34
more than a year but on average we're producing 3500 calories per person worldwide in our a systems the problem
00:53:42
is we just can't grow crops where we need them and so by being able to do this sort of system where we can take
00:53:48
crops that are very drought resistant or can grow in sandy soil or very hot weather and adapt cooler climate crops
00:53:54
to those regions but through the system we can actually move significantly where
00:53:59
things are grown and um and improve food access in regions of me how freeberg when you look at a potato how do you
00:54:05
figure out what part of their DNA is the drought resistant part yeah and then how
00:54:11
do you make sure that that's turned on so even if you inherit that chromosome it's is is there some potential
00:54:16
interaction with the generally if we can so these are what are called markers genetic markers and so there are known
00:54:22
markers associated with known phenotypes a phenotype is a physical trait of a plant and so we know lots of markers for
00:54:29
every crop that we grow markers for disease resistance drought resistance markers for big plants short plants Etc
00:54:37
and so what we do is we look at the genetics of different plants that we might want to combine into the boosted
00:54:42
system and we say these ones have these markers these ones have these markers let's put them together and then that
00:54:47
that'll drive the results one of the other interesting things we're seeing which I didn't get too much into in the
00:54:53
slides it's not just about combining traits but it turns out when you add more genes together biology figures out
00:55:02
a way to create Gene networks these are all these genes that interact with each other in ways that are not super well
00:55:09
understood but it makes the the organism healthier and bigger and live longer this is like when you bring like why
00:55:15
muts are healthier and live longer than purebred dogs because they have more genetic diversity so there's a lot of
00:55:21
work now in what's called quantitative genomics where you actually look at the statistics acoss all the Gen you use a
00:55:28
model and the model predicts which two crosses you want to make out of hundreds of thousands or millions of potential
00:55:34
crosses that the AI predicts here's the two best ones to to cross because you'll
00:55:39
get this growth or this healthiness how do you want to make money freeberg are you going to sell the
00:55:44
seeds are you going to become the direct farmer are you going to become food as a
00:55:49
service like how do you make the most money from this we're not going to farm farmers are our customers and so they're
00:55:56
different ways to partner with people in the industry who already have seed businesses or already have genetics and
00:56:02
help them improve the quality of their business and then there's other Industries like in potato where we're
00:56:08
building our own business of making potato seed for example so every crop and every region is actually quite
00:56:14
different so it becomes a pretty complicated business to scale we're in the earlier days we're already Revenue
00:56:19
generating I would like a sweeter blueberry no comment no comment yeah I get tilted by the quality of the
00:56:27
driscolls blueberries let me tell you something about the driscolls blueberries also the Driscoll I've I've
00:56:32
had only one batch of a Driscoll strawberry that was just off the charts and every 19,8 47 other batches I bought
00:56:40
have been total yeah now you want the European small ones or the Japanese ones from H CU they're rich and sweet and
00:56:47
they're not these like monstrosity of giant flavor of strawberries seedless could you do a seedless
00:56:55
mango yeah you cut it cut it oh my God how great would that be amount of work per bite on a mango is like the worst
00:57:03
ratio yeah oh my god well somehow we made it about us yeah no no look I think that's it is all about you guys tell us
00:57:10
about the blueberries sorry every year driscolls puts out a special labeled package called sweetest batch and they
00:57:19
just had the sweetest batch of strawberry and blueberri I don't know if they're still in the stores but they
00:57:23
only last for like a week or two and that's the best genetics only grown on a small number of Aces really inred going
00:57:30
as soon as this is done see if they have it still I got it a few weeks ago it's quite delicious anyway we know let's
00:57:36
just say we know the berry Market very well my co-founder CTO Jud Ward who's whose brilliant idea boosted breeding
00:57:43
was many years ago who I met because they had a New Yorker article on Jud I cold called him and said hey will you
00:57:48
come in and give us a tech talk we started talking and Jud came up with this idea for boosted breeding and so we
00:57:54
started the business with Jud and Jud ran molecular breeding at Driscoll so we have a lot of Driscoll people that work
00:57:59
at ohal we know the market really well can you go back to the patent stuff like are
00:58:03
youed person so we spent we spent 50 million bucks on you know plus on this business to date so we have filed for IP
00:58:12
protection that people can't just rip us off but I would say I think that the real Advantage for the business arises
00:58:19
from what we call Trade Secrets which is not just about taking patents and going
00:58:23
out and suing people that's not a great business the business is how do you build a moat and then how do you extend
00:58:28
that moat the great thing about plant breeding and genetics is that once you make an amazing variety the next year
00:58:35
the variety gets better and the next year the variety gets better and so it's hard for anyone to catch up that's why
00:58:39
seed companies generally get monopolies in the markets because farmers will keep
00:58:44
buying that seed every year provided it delivers the best genetics and so our business model is really predicated on
00:58:50
how do we build advantages and Moes and then keep extending them rather than try
00:58:54
to leverage IP so I I'm big fan of like building business model advantages this is going to be incredible Sachs if you
00:58:59
think about you know geopolitically what's going on in Somalia Sudan Yemen Afghanistan those places have tens of
00:59:07
millions of people I think hundreds of millions collectively who are at risk for starvation if you could actually
00:59:12
make crops that could be farmed there freedberg you would change humanity and then all these people buying up Farmland
00:59:18
in America that could devalue that Farmland if that wasn't as limited of a resource you freeberg like no I think um
00:59:26
so first of all like Farmland in America is mostly familyowned it's about 60% rented actually so a lot of families own
00:59:33
it and then they rent it out because they sto farming it but the great thing that we've seen in agriculture
00:59:40
historically is that the more calories we produce the more food we produce the more there seems to be a
00:59:45
market it's like any other economic what about system wheat and rice yeah so those are calorie sources one and two
00:59:53
and there's certainly opportunity for us to apply our boosted systems there the big breakthrough with potato is we can
00:59:59
make potato seed using our boosted system in addition to making better potatoes McDonald's is the largest buyer
01:00:05
of potatoes yeah so in the US 60% of the potatoes go to french fries and potato chips McDonald's buys most of the fries
01:00:12
PepsiCo under fro buys most of the potato chip potatoes 40% are table potatoes in India 95% of the potatoes
01:00:20
are table potatoes they're eaten at home and the Indian potato Market's three to
01:00:24
four times as big as the potato Market in Brazil it's 90% table potato so all around the world potato different the US
01:00:31
is you know unusually large consumers of french fries and potato chips I speak on
01:00:37
behalf of J celvin I said we will gladly invest the million at a 10 cap in both of your businesses absolutely yes we
01:00:45
will grift our way into this J J Cal and I will do the deal wire the money we wire the money a little million to each
01:00:51
of you guys at a 10 cap thank you absolutely you're it may not be cap though but yes breing news jam and jcal
01:00:59
have secured the bag so breaking news jam and jcal have secured the bag from the bes actually doing work yeah well I
01:01:07
appreciate you guys letting me talk about it exced to both of you I love it it's been yeah for yeah building stuff
01:01:14
is hard there's always risk it's a lot of work and a lot of setbacks but man when you get stuff working it's great
01:01:21
we're each doing the things we do best freeberg is solving the world's hunger problem and I'm making I'm cleaning up
01:01:28
your slack making your Enterprise chat a little better all progress C all right Stanley dren Miller has got
01:01:38
a new boyfriend dren Miller's got a boyfriend and his name is Javier and they alop to Argentina dck Miller
01:01:47
professed his love like Tom Cruz on Oprah couch in a CNBC interview this week the only free market quote leader
01:01:55
in the world right now bizarrely is in Argentina of all places he cut Social Security 35% after he came to office
01:02:02
they've gone from a primary deficit of like four or five% to a 3% Surplus they've taken a massive hit in GDP
01:02:08
basically a depression for a quarter and his approval rating has not gone down truck and Miller has explained how he
01:02:16
invested in Argentina after seeing mala's speech at Davos which we covered here's a 30 second clip play the clip
01:02:23
Nick by the way do you want to hear how I invest in our artina it's a funny story I wasn't at Davos but I saw the
01:02:30
speech in Davos and it was about 1:00 in the afternoon in my office I dialed up perplexity and I said give me the five
01:02:38
most liquid adrs in Argentina Argentina it gave me enough of a description that I follow the old Soros rule invest and
01:02:46
then investigate I bought all of them we did some work on them I increased my positions so far it's been great but
01:02:53
we'll see yeah that's quite interesting he um quick note you hear Dr Miller mentioned adrs for those of you who
01:03:00
don't know and I was one of them they stand for American depository receipts basically a global stock offered on a US
01:03:06
exchange to simplify things for investors yeah I mean he didn't sign a prenup here he just went all in and he
01:03:14
bought the stock chamath and then he's going to figure it out later tell us your thoughts on this love affair this
01:03:20
Bromance there's a great clip of mle he goes on this talk show in Argentina and the talk show host she's just so excited
01:03:29
and greets him and then they start making out have you guys seen this what they're just out of control full on
01:03:37
French kissing each other it's hilarious yeah I mean like Soros has been very famous for this invest and
01:03:43
investigate thing it's a it's like a smart strategy for very very liquid Public Market investors that have the
01:03:52
Curiosity that he does I mean I don't have much of a reaction to that I think that
01:03:56
the the thing with Argentina that's worth taking away is when you've spent decades casting about and misallocating
01:04:04
capital and running your economy into the ground the formula for fixing it is exactly the
01:04:11
same you cut entitlements and you reinvigorate the economy and so the thing we need to take away is if we
01:04:19
don't get our together that's probably what we're going to have to do Sachs the influence of mle on American
01:04:26
politics Will there be any it seems like he has paralleled what Elon did at Twitter Facebook uh and and zucked it at
01:04:35
Facebook do you think that this you know experiment he's doing down there of just
01:04:40
cutting staff cutting departments will ever make its way into American politics probably not I mean not until
01:04:48
we're forced to but what mle did he comes in and they've got a huge budget deficit and they've got runaway
01:04:54
inflation and they're deba ing their currency and just practically overnight he just slashes government spending to
01:05:00
the point where he has a government surplus and then as soon as he gets credibility with the markets that allows
01:05:05
them to reduce interest rates inflation goes away and people start investing in the country magic It's Magic there is a
01:05:12
path it's obvious listen I mean you can't run deficits forever you can't accumulate debt forever it's just like a
01:05:21
household if your spending exceeds your income eventually you got to pay it back or you
01:05:27
go broke and the only reason we haven't gotten broke or experienced hyperinflation is because we're the
01:05:32
world's Reserve currency so there's just a lot of room for debasement and there's
01:05:37
not a ready alternative yet I mean everyone's trying to figure out what the alternative will be so we've been able
01:05:42
to accumulate more and more debt but it's it's reaching a point where it's unsustainable and what we've already
01:05:46
seen is that the feds had to jack up interest rates from very low practically nothing to 5 a half% and that has a real
01:05:54
cost on people wellbeing because now your cost of getting a mortgage goes way up I mean mortgage rates are over what 7
01:06:02
and a half% now yeah six s% depending on how much net worth and your credit rting
01:06:08
yeah right and so it's much harder to get a mortgage now it's harder to make a car payment if you need to borrow to buy
01:06:14
a car and if you have personal debt the interest rat is going to be higher the inflation rate actually doesn't take
01:06:19
into account any of those things remember Larry Summers did that study where he said the real inflation rate
01:06:24
would be 18 % or would have peaked at 18% if you included a cost of borrowing that's why people don't feel as well off
01:06:32
as the unemployment rate would normally suggest so people are hit really hard when interest rates go up in terms of
01:06:41
big purchases they need to make with debt and then of course it's really bad for the investment environment
01:06:47
because when interest rates are really high that creates a higher hurdle rate and people don't want to invest in Risk
01:06:55
assets and So eventually the pace of innovation will go down and Dr Miller made this point in his next set of
01:07:01
comments he said that treasury is still acting like we're in a depression it's interesting because I've
01:07:06
studied the depression you had a private sector crippled with debt basically with
01:07:10
no new ideas so interventionist policies were called for and were effective he said the private sector could not be
01:07:16
more different today than it was in the Great Depression the balance sheets are fine they're healthy and have you ever
01:07:21
seen more innovation ideas that the private sector could take advantage of like blockchain like AI he says all the
01:07:28
government needs to do is get out of the way and let them innovate inste theyve spend and spend and spent and my new
01:07:32
fear now is that spending and the resulting interest rates on the debt that's been created are going to crowd
01:07:39
out some of the Innovation that otherwise would have taken place I completely endorse duck Miller's view of
01:07:44
bionomics and actually I mean this is what I said way back in 2021 Victory lap here we go Little David saaks Victory
01:07:53
lap we need a little graphic for that Dr used the word biomics and said I give these guys an F because they're they're
01:07:59
still printing money and spending money like we're in a depression even though we're in a riping economy and when they
01:08:04
started doing this back in 2021 you know I tweeted bionomics equals pumping trillions of dollars of stimulus into a
01:08:10
roran economy I'm not going to pretend like I know what's going to happen next but never tried this before what
01:08:14
happened next was a lot of inflation and that jacked up interest rates according
01:08:18
to even Keynesian economics the reason why you have deficit spending is because you're in a recession or depression and
01:08:24
so use the government to stimulate and balance things out you don't you don't do deficit spending when
01:08:30
the econom is already doing well so this spending there's no reason for it yeah it's like showing up to like a party
01:08:36
that's going crazy and being like putting gasoline on the fire yeah I mean more importantly it should limit the
01:08:43
approval or action of certain programs that you might otherwise want to do in a normal environment but in an
01:08:51
inflationary environment you don't have the flexibility to do them student loan forgiveness is a really good example is
01:08:58
now the time of course not to do student loan forgiveness or do we wait for inflation to temper a bit is now the
01:09:04
time you know so so there's just a lot of these examples that actually the opposite should be true yeah but none of
01:09:10
all of those things get you votes before we move on from this look what we have coming out of Washington here is a
01:09:15
contradictory and therefore self-defeating policy you've got the FED jacking up rates to control inflation
01:09:21
you move across town and you've got Capitol Hill in the White House spending like there's no tomorrow which is
01:09:26
inflationary why would you do both those things choose what your policy is going
01:09:30
to be it's like driving with your foot on the break and the gas at the same time it's not a great idea for the car
01:09:35
let me just make one comment J Cal before we move on about the dren Miller investment statement of course and I I
01:09:40
just wanted to say like I think what it highlights about dren Miller and call it
01:09:45
a rift in investing philosophy or skill is the difference between precision and accuracy what I mean by that is
01:09:52
precision really references that you do a lot of detail analysis to try and make
01:09:56
sure you understand every specific thing that is going right or could go wrong but the problem and so that means you
01:10:04
for example might do a ton of diligence on a company and make sure you understand every dollar every point of
01:10:08
margin all the specifics of the maturation of that business and where they are in their cycle but you could be
01:10:15
very precise but be very inaccurate for example if you miss an entire Trend someone could invest in Macy's back when
01:10:23
Amazon was taking off and have done a lot of precise analysis on Macy's margin structure and performance and said this
01:10:29
is a great business but they missed the bigger Trend which is that e-commerce was going to sweep away Macy's and
01:10:35
consumers were simply that's not possible in the analysis that they were doing let's be honest freeberg nobody
01:10:41
could make that stupid of a trade to say Macy's versus Amazon over the next 10 years well yeah and so like and um J you
01:10:49
want to show that who no no no no do not poke the tiger let's not get into with other podcasters the worst spread trade
01:10:56
in history yeah let me just finish the statement yeah but the other one is being accurate and accurate means you
01:11:01
get the yeah the right bet the right sentiment yes the right Trend the problem with being accurate you could
01:11:07
have said in the year 2000 hey the internet's going to take off and you could have put a bunch of money in but
01:11:14
the problem was you were right you just had to have the necessary patience and so accuracy generally yields better
01:11:22
returns but it requires more patience because you can't necessarily time how long it will take for you to be right so
01:11:29
a guy like drunen Miller is making an accurate bet he bets correctly on the trend on where things are headed he
01:11:36
doesn't necessarily need to be precise but he has the capital and his capital structure that allows him to be patient
01:11:42
to make sure that he eventually gets the return and to build on your thoughts having watched this movie a couple of
01:11:46
times and you know I overthought the Twitter investment as but one example I had the opportunity to invest in Twitter
01:11:52
when it was like a singled digit Millions company I just thought you know what this thing is only like the
01:11:59
headline and I told like it's the headline it's not like the entire blog post it's be a cacophony of idiots this
01:12:05
thing is going to be chaos and I was right but I was wrong right great bet but my wrong analysis right and so you
01:12:11
can add Precision to other aspects like when you sell your shares or when you double down but you have to get the
01:12:18
trend right which is Evan Williams great entrepreneur Jack great entrepreneur Twitter taking off like a weed just make
01:12:23
the BET right you knew too much about journalism you knew too much about the space they were trying to disrupt and
01:12:30
that can be a mistake correct we did yeah PayPal none of us knew anything about payments that was one of the
01:12:35
reasons we were successful all the payments experts told us it couldn't be done right absolutely so that happens a
01:12:40
lot I had never even know I didn't even know what a Facebook was when I joined Facebook it's an American college
01:12:45
phenomenon no serious you don't have that in Canada but you knew Zuck and you you saw some growth charts and you saw
01:12:51
some Precision in his ability to build product and I mean the great thing about the great
01:12:56
thing about Network effect businesses is there's a trend line that sustains because it builds if if it's an
01:13:01
appropriate Network effect so you can be accurate about buying into the right Network effect business you don't need
01:13:08
to use all of this diligence to be perfectly sound around the maturation of the revenue and the margin structure and
01:13:16
all that stuff as long as the trend line is right and you're willing to be patient to hold your investment I think
01:13:20
dren Miller's point is incredible he took a look he very quickly made a macro assessment from a macro perspective what
01:13:26
mle is doing is significantly different than what we're seeing in any other Emerging Market let alone mature Market
01:13:32
with respect to fiscal austerity and appropriateness in this sort of inflationary Global inflationary
01:13:37
environment and he said you know what I don't see any other leader doing this this is a no-brainer bet let me make the
01:13:43
BET and as long as he's willing to hold this thing for long enough eventually the markets will get there and call it a
01:13:49
spread trade against anything he'll be proven right well and so not to but speaking of bets J you told me this week
01:13:57
that you just made your largest investment ever tell us about that yeah so I've gotten very lucky now because a
01:14:03
lot of my Founders from the first couple of cohorts of investing I did when I was a
01:14:08
sequoia Scout have come back and created second and third companies and so you know that happened with TK Uber and then
01:14:14
Cloud kitchens it happened with Raul from report of then superum and then it happened recently just in the past year
01:14:22
my friend Jonathan who's the co-founder of thumbtack asked me to come to dinner he said hey you know you were the first
01:14:27
investor in Thumbtack will you be the first investor in our next company Athena and I said sure what do you do
01:14:32
and he explained it to me and and we put a seven figureure b in which is rare for
01:14:35
us as a seed fund right normally our bet sizes are 100K 250 you know it's a $50 million fund why did you do it yeah it's
01:14:43
very simple it's the fastest growing company I've ever seen and I'm including Uber in that it has been growing at uh
01:14:50
you know a rate that I'll just say is faster than Uber and Robin Hood when when we
01:14:56
were investing in them tens of millions of dollars it's a very simple concept when
01:15:00
Thumbtack was building their market place they used researchers in places like Manila Etc in the Philippines
01:15:09
knowledge workers and what they realized was the 0.1% of those knowledge workers
01:15:14
were as good or better than say Americans at doing certain jobs and so they've created this virtual EA service
01:15:21
you can go see it at Athena wow.com and we now have two of them inside of our company it turns out Americans don't
01:15:28
want to do the operations rle so it's kind of like AWS you just give them $336,000 a year they give you
01:15:34
essentially an operations or an EA and they have ones that are kind of chief of staish and this company is growing like
01:15:43
a weed so I am working with them on the product design as well so imagine having
01:15:48
you know two or three of these incredibly hardworking people who are trained with MBA class level curriculum
01:15:58
they spend months training these people up they pay them two or three times what
01:16:03
they would make at any other company and then they pair them with Executives here
01:16:06
and it's kind of been an underground Secret in Silicon Valley because it's only By Invitation right now because
01:16:12
they can only train so many people but if you've tried to hire an executive assistant I don't know if anybody's
01:16:17
tried to do that recently you hooked me up so I will be Guinea picking this service yes soon and I have two of them
01:16:24
and so it is just the greatest that you can have an operations are these people powered by AI tools as well yeah so
01:16:31
that's the kind of Secret Sauce here is they're training them and they watch you
01:16:35
work and then they will learn how you do your job and then how quickly you can delegate and get stuff off your plate is
01:16:42
the name of the game so we have an investment team with researchers and analysts in it we have a due diligence
01:16:47
team and then you have like executive functions in our fund they have now started shadowing you know you know
01:16:54
highly paid Americans in an investment firm ours and then train them up and now our due diligence our first level
01:17:02
screening you know and our tracking of companies is being done by these assistants for what I'll say is a third
01:17:08
to a fourth of the price I was paying previously so what that does in an organization is we're just delegating
01:17:14
away and then moving our investment team to doing in-person meetings and doing higher level stuff and so yeah you're
01:17:21
you're 8090 the so at 8090 we have this funny thing where we've made it a verb whenever you see somebody doing high
01:17:28
quality work at a quarter to a tenth of the cost we say oh you just 89 it correct so you're you're 8090 in the
01:17:35
investment team I'm 8090 in the investment team and you know what it was scary as hell for them because they're
01:17:39
like am I GNA lose my job it's like no you now get to instead of doing a check and call once a month you can do a check
01:17:45
and call every other week or every week or instead of doing 15 first round interviews a week you can do 25 because
01:17:51
you have this assistant with you way doing all the repetitive work the way that companies will work in five and 10
01:17:57
years I don't think guys any of us are going to recognize what it's going to look like yeah so I go I mean like
01:18:03
watching Sax's demo earlier how much progress and how seamless that product works with the features it has enabled
01:18:11
by the underlying models you just get to thinking how all of these vertical software applications become completely
01:18:21
personalized and quickly rebuilt around AI you know it's so obvious can you imagine how long
01:18:27
it would have taken John to write a letter to Lena KH to invite like if we said John invite Lena KH But be sure to
01:18:33
reference all the nice things we said about her on episodes of the Pod oh it be 10 hours of work got find find all
01:18:39
those you got to listen to them and figure out what the best quotes are you got and you got it done in five seconds
01:18:43
it's incredible totally and then imagine building that same sort of capability into a very specific vertical
01:18:49
application that's specific to some business function and you can probably spend a couple or an hour building that
01:18:55
function and then it saves you hours a day in peret you know I think I think that's why these tools companies or the
01:19:03
tools products that Google Microsoft Amazon and a few others are building are actually incredible
01:19:11
businesses because so many Enterprises and so many vertical application Builders are going to be able to
01:19:16
leverage them to rewrite their entire business functions I got myself and my co-founders at 8090 we get this stream
01:19:23
of emails of companies that are like like or people that are like we have this product idea or we have this small
01:19:29
product one of the emails I got this was crazy was from a guy that's like oh we've 8090 Photoshop so like we have
01:19:37
like a much much cheaper version of Photoshop and the guy was doing like a few million bucks of of AR and growing
01:19:42
really nicely but then it turned out that somebody saw that and then 809 it so then there was version of that thing
01:19:51
and so to your point freeberg none of these big companies a chance yeah yeah it's everything cheap faster not because
01:19:59
they're not because the products aren't good but like J's going to go off and experiment with this sack's going to go
01:20:04
off and build a product you know as every time that you're at a boundary condition we're all going to explore
01:20:10
well maybe we could do this with AI maybe we shouldn't hire a person not because we're trying to be mean about it
01:20:16
but it's because the normal natural thing to do and the Opex of companies is just going to go down which means the
01:20:22
size of companies are going to shrink which amount of M is going to and that's just going to create the ability for
01:20:29
these compan to sell those products cheaper so M it's a massive deflationary tail we had the same thing happen with
01:20:36
compute and now it's happening inside of organizations I I wrote a blog post about this on my substack called add
01:20:42
this is the framework I came up with I told my entire team look at what you got done every week and I want you to ask
01:20:48
three questions how can I automate this how can I deprecate this how can I delegate it and you know the automate
01:20:55
part is AI and what you're doing David the delegate part is atheno wow.com and then the deprecate is hey just be
01:21:02
thoughtful what are you doing that you don't need to do and that's 8090 and something like there are things inside
01:21:07
these products that you don't actually need what's the core functionality of the product you know make it as
01:21:13
affordable as possible and then what's going to happen for people who think this is bad for society you've got to
01:21:18
completely wrong we're g to have more people be able to create more products and solve more problems the unemployment
01:21:25
rate is going to stay very low we're just going to have more companies so the idea like there was somebody who was
01:21:31
working on very small like software I want to I get pitched on very Niche ideas I want to create something where
01:21:37
people can find people to play pickle ball with right like a pickle ball marketplace now that didn't wouldn't
01:21:43
typically work because you would need $5 million a year to build that product but
01:21:47
if you can build it for $500,000 a year well now you've only got to clear that number to be profitable so a lot more
01:21:52
smaller businesses a lot more all these little niche ideas will be a to be built and a VC who says I'm not
01:21:59
giving you $5 million to build that app will be like but I will give you 500k and that's what I'm seeing on the ground
01:22:05
in startups the same startups that had a request of $3 million in funding five years ago are now requesting 500 to a
01:22:13
million it's deflationary all the way down did you incredible did you see the Google thing did you guys see the Google
01:22:20
AI Gemini stuff chat GPT Omni launched at the same time or perhaps strategically right before Google
01:22:27
dropped its latest AI announcements at IO the biggest announcement is that they are going to change search this is the
01:22:36
piece of the puzzle in the Kingdom that they have been very concerned with and they're going for it the new product and
01:22:42
they have like 20 different products you can see them at labs. gooogle where they
01:22:46
put all their different products but this is the most important one they call it AI overviews basically it's
01:22:51
perplexity for most users by the end of the year they're going to have this here's how it works and you can see it
01:22:56
on your screen if you're watching us go to YouTube here they gave an example how
01:23:00
do you clean a fabric sofa this normally would have given you 10 Blue Links here
01:23:04
it gives you step-by-step guide with citations and links so they're preempting you know the issue of people
01:23:10
getting upset and as I predicted they're going to have targeted ads here's the things you need in order to clean your
01:23:19
couch you can only use this if you're using your Gmail account if you use like a domain name on Google it won't work
01:23:25
there so go to labs. gooogle but they're doing citations and I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here those
01:23:33
people who are in those boxes are going to look at the answer here and realize maybe they don't get the click through
01:23:37
and that this answer was built on that and now we're going to have to have a new framework there's going to need to
01:23:41
be sax a new company that clears this content so that Google can do answers like this the workflow stuff in Gmail
01:23:50
also kicked ass the demo that they showed was you get a bunch of receipts and the person giving the demo she said
01:23:57
something the effect of well wouldn't it be great if like you know the AI assistant were able to find all the
01:24:02
receipts and then aggregated them and it put them in a folder and then also actually generated an expense report or
01:24:09
like a a spreadsheet on the fly it it's crazy yeah I gotta say I think that it's
01:24:15
free to change your mind and so it's good to do that oh and I think that jamath in a rare moment of reflection
01:24:24
might do a are we gonna have a re underwriting is this a re underwriting I change my mind all the time I just I
01:24:29
mean you know because I'm gentlemen breaking news is rewriting his Google trick sorry I don't to blow your ears
01:24:38
out I think the Google thing is pretty special between last week's announcement of isomorphic labs which let's be honest
01:24:45
that's a that's just a multi hundred billion dollar company so you're saying there might be many think about it this
01:24:53
way right m opportun sitting there dormant inside of Google that AI unlocks look at a company like royalty Pharma so
01:24:59
if royalty Pharma with a pretty it's a phenomenal business run by a phenomenal entrepreneur Pablo laretta but what is
01:25:06
that business that's buying two and three% royalties of drugs that work and you can see how much value that those
01:25:13
guys have created which is essentially 90% eitaa margin business it's outrageous because they're in the
01:25:19
business of analyzing and then buying small slivers I think something like is morphic ends up being of that magnitude
01:25:26
of margin scale but at an order of magnitude or two orders of magnitude higher Revenue so if you if you fold
01:25:32
that back into a Google if you think about what they're doing now on the search side these guys
01:25:38
may be really kicking some ass here so I I I think that the the reports of their
01:25:44
death were premature and exaggerated absolutely and the report of their death freeberg was based upon people don't
01:25:50
need to click on the ads but as I said on this very Bas my belief is that this is going to result in more searches and
01:25:58
more knowledge engagement because once you get how to cook your steak and get the the right uh temperature right for
01:26:04
medium rare it's going to anticipate your next three questions better so now it's going to say hey what wine pairing
01:26:10
would you want with that steak hey do you need steak knives and it's just going to read your mind that you need
01:26:14
steak knives and chamath likes to buy steak knives but maybe you like to buy mock meets whatever it is it's going to
01:26:20
drive more research and more clicks so while the monetization per search may go down we might see many many more
01:26:27
searches what do you think freeberg you work there and um when we look at the the the future of the company and the
01:26:34
stock price Nick will pull it up man if you had held your stock yeah I don't know did you hold I think I bought some
01:26:43
um original stock during the stu oh no I sold all my stock back when I started climate because I was a startup
01:26:51
entrepreneur and needed to live so which you know I I Rec I did the math on it it was pretty it'd be worth
01:27:00
it' be worth a lot it would be worth billions or tens of billions no no would it have been a billion or okay no no
01:27:07
okay you know I was not like a I was not a senior exact or anything I I think what you said is is probably true so
01:27:15
that's a creative I think the other thing that's probably true is a big measure at Google on the search page in
01:27:22
terms of search engine perform performance was the bounceback rate meaning someone does a search they go
01:27:27
off to another site and then they come back because they didn't get the answer they wanted and then the one box
01:27:32
launched which shows a short answer on the top which basically keeps people from having a bad search experience
01:27:38
because they get the result right away so a key metric is they're going to start to discover which vertical
01:27:44
searches uh meaning like hey cooking recipes that kind of stuff like you're referencing travel there's lots and lots
01:27:51
of these different types of searches that will a snippet or a one box that's powered by Gemini that will provide the
01:27:58
user a better experience than them jumping off to a third party page to get that same content and then they'll be
01:28:04
able to monetize that content that they otherwise were not participating in the monetization of so I think the real
01:28:10
victim in all this is that long tale of content on the internet yeah that probably gets cannibalized by the
01:28:16
snippet one box experience within the search function and then I do think that the revenue per search query in some of
01:28:23
those categories actually has the potential to go up not down explain explain give me an example you keep
01:28:28
people on the page so you get more more search volume there you get more searches
01:28:33
because of the examples you gave and then when people do stay you now have the ability to better monetize that
01:28:39
particular search query because you otherwise would have lost it to the third party content page so for example
01:28:45
selling the steak knives is another you know it's kind of a good example or booking the travel directly and so on so
01:28:51
by keeping more of the experience integrated they can monetize the search per query higher and they're going to
01:28:59
have more queries and then they're going to have the quality of the queries go up
01:29:02
so I think it's all in there's a case to be made I haven't done a spreadsheet analysis on this but I guarantee you
01:29:09
going back to our earlier point about precision versus accuracy my guess is there's a lot of hedge fund type folks
01:29:14
doing a lot of this Precision type analysis trying to break apart search queries by vertical and try to figure
01:29:21
out what the net effect will be of having better AI driven box and Snippets and my guess is that's why there's a lot
01:29:26
of buying activity happening in the stock right now and I think they're probably all missing to's point a lot of
01:29:32
these call options like isomorphic Labs I can tell you meta and Amazon meta and Amazon do not have an isomorphic lab and
01:29:40
wh sitting inside their business that suddenly Pops to a couple hundred billion of market cap and Google does
01:29:46
have a few of those so so other bats could actually pay off these there there may be look I mean there's Calico no one
01:29:51
talks about calico I don't know what's going on over there exension yeah let me get saaks involved in this discussion
01:29:55
saxs when we show that example it's obvious Google is telling you where they got these citations from and how they
01:30:02
built they how to clean your couch how to make your steak those they were in a very delicate balance with content
01:30:08
creators over the past two decades which is hey we're going to use a little bit of your content but we're going to send
01:30:14
you traffic this is going to take away the need to send traffic to these places they're going to benefit from it to me
01:30:21
this is the mother of all class action lawsuits because is they're putting it right up there hey we're using your
01:30:27
content to make this answer here's the citations we didn't get your permission to do this but we're doing it anyway
01:30:32
what do you think is the resolution here does all these content go away because there's no model does Google try to make
01:30:39
peace with the content creators and cut them in or license their data what's going to happen to content creation when
01:30:45
somebody like Google is just going to take wire cutter or these other sources that are not behind a pay wall and just
01:30:51
give you the goddamn answer well look this is the same conversation we've had two or three
01:30:55
times where we're going to need the courts to figure out what fair use is and depending on what they come up with
01:31:00
it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by licensing by doing licensing deals we don't know the answer
01:31:06
to that yet uh by the way I do know a Founder who is already skating to where the puck is going and creating a rights
01:31:13
Marketplace so that content owners can license their AI rights to whoever wants to use them I think that could be SM I
01:31:20
was I had a call with him yesterday and you and I will be on that table together
01:31:24
once again and I yeah yeah so I don't want to say who it is because going to let him announce his own round but um
01:31:29
I'm going be participating in the seed round look stepping back here it's interesting if you go back to the very
01:31:34
beginning of Google the OG Google search bar had two buttons on it right search and I feel lucky I feel lucky was just
01:31:42
tell me the answer just take me to the best result and no one ever did that because it kind of sucked then they
01:31:48
started inching towards with one box but it wasn't you didn't get the one box very often it's very clear now that
01:31:54
powered one box is the future of Google search people just want the answer I think that this feature is going to eat
01:32:01
the rest of Google Search now it's a little bit unclear what the financial impact of that will be I think like you
01:32:09
guys were saying there'll be probably be more searches because search gets more useful there's fewer Blue Links to click
01:32:14
on but maybe they'll get you know compensated through those like relevant ads hard to say you're probably right
01:32:20
that Google ultimately benefits here but let's not pretend this was a deliberate
01:32:26
strategy on their point they got drag Kicking and Screaming into this by innovation of perplexity and other
01:32:31
companies yep they had no idea they got caught completely flat-footed and they've now I guess caught up by copying
01:32:39
perplexity and sucks for perplexity I think they're kind of screwed now unless they get it's over an acquisition deal
01:32:45
but perplexity came up with the idea of having citations in your having a comprehensive
01:32:52
search result yeah which was something search result with citations and related questions and right they did it
01:32:59
extremely well and quite frankly all Google had to do was copy them now they've done that and I think it does
01:33:04
look like a killer and by the way this was all something that I saw 15 years ago when I did Mahalo which was my human
01:33:10
power search engine and which I had copied or been inspired by neor and D in Korea they were the first ones to do
01:33:16
this you know it shamama because there were only three or four markets where Google couldn't displace the number one
01:33:22
Korea Russia Japan Russia had um what was the Russian search engine God I can't remember now
01:33:30
Japan had Yahoo Japan uh which masi yoshian had carved out it was never part of it and they were loyal to that and
01:33:36
very nationalistic Koreans and very Innovative Folks at D and neor just made search that was so amazing you do a
01:33:45
search and be like here's music Here's images here's answers here's Q&A it was awesome but you know it just shows you
01:33:52
like you need to have a lot a wherewith all and timing is everything as an entrepreneur my timing was 10 years too
01:33:57
early and the wrong technology I used humans not AI because AI didn't work 15 years ago one thing I would say about
01:34:03
big companies like a Google or Microsoft is that the power of your Monopoly determines how many mistakes you get to
01:34:10
make so think about Microsoft completely missed iPhone remember and they like they screwed up the whole smartphone
01:34:17
mobile phone era and it didn't matter didn't matter SAA comes in blows this thing up to A3 trillion doll public
01:34:23
public company same thing here with Google they completely screwed up AI they invented the Transformer completely
01:34:29
missed llms then they had that Fiasco where you know they have black George Washington black George Washington
01:34:35
doesn't matter they can make 10 mistakes but their Monopoly is so strong that they can finally get it right by copying
01:34:41
the innovator and they're probably going to become A5 billion doll company now sorry five trillion dollar company it
01:34:46
reminds me you know the greatest product creation company in history I think we all know who that was and take a a look
01:34:54
down memory lane here are the 20 biggest felt Apple products of all time the appal Lisa Macintosh portable we all
01:35:02
remember the Newton which was their PDA the 20th anniversary Macintosh super sexy people don't remember they had
01:35:09
their own video game I I was at a conference a couple years ago that Jeff spoke at I think he's given this talk in
01:35:18
a couple other places you could probably find it on the internet yeah but he talks about Amazon's Legacy of failure
01:35:24
and how they had the fire phone and the fire this and the fire that and he's like our job is to fail swings we have
01:35:30
to make these blunders but what makes us successful is that we learn from the failures and you know we make the right
01:35:36
next decision yeah yeah but I say if you're a startup and you make big failures you usually just go out of
01:35:41
business one and done but this is how you this is how you but this is how you stay competitive if you're a big founder
01:35:48
Le tech company the only way you're going to have a shot at staying relevant is to take big shots that you're going
01:35:55
to fail at I just you have you have to do things you're to fail right remember this boom
01:36:01
box is one of the huge difference between startups and big companies is that big companies can afford to have a
01:36:06
portfolio of products they have a portfolio of bets some of them will work and that keeps the company going startup
01:36:11
really has to go all in on their best idea totally I always tell Founders just go all in on your best idea they're
01:36:16
always ask me for permission to Pivot and I always tell them do go for the best idea don't don't hedge don't try do
01:36:23
five things at once just go all in on your best idea yeah yeah and if it doesn't work out you reboot and start
01:36:29
with a new c table you're going to go all in so to speak another amazing episode is in the Ken the boys are in a
01:36:36
good mood you got your great episode no guests this week just all bestie all the
01:36:42
time and very important the march to a million continues halfway there you got us there fans we hit 500,000 subbies on
01:36:52
YouTube which means y all earned a live Q&A with your besties coming at you in the next couple of weeks we're going to
01:36:58
do it live on YouTube so if you're not one of the first 500 get in there now so you get the alert we're going to take
01:37:04
your questions live it's going to be dangerous any questions no questions uh are dangerous who knows what could
01:37:10
happen on a live show and by the way I just want to let you know that Phil helmouth breaking news Phil helmouth and
01:37:16
Draymond Green just resigned from open AI we didn't get into that but the open a resignations continue Phil H has
01:37:22
tweeted he is no longer with open AI you guys like my baby cashmir pink sweater it's pretty great we gonna get
01:37:31
Summer chamat soon are the buttons coming down are you gonna go linen the when does linen chamat show up the
01:37:36
unbuttoning is about to happen in the next two or three weeks great unbuttoning this is how you know it's
01:37:41
kind of like Groundhog Day you know that Summer's here when we lat's buttons almost it's Memorial Day when after
01:37:49
Memorial Day the button can come down yeah we're going to go three buttons down be wearing my black tea Sachs will
01:37:56
still be blue blaze or blue shirt red tie and freeberg in Fields of Gold look at freeberg in Fields of Gold taking us
01:38:04
out Sting Fields of Gold coming at you two for Tuesday see you all in the next all in pod for the Sultan of
01:38:11
science raain Man David saxs and chairman dictator I am your Z100 Morning Zoo DJ we'll see you next time love you
01:38:19
boys byebye byebye will let your winners ride Rainman David and in said we open source it to
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the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen [Music] of Besties my dog taking your
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driveway man oh man my habiter will meet me we should all just get a room and just
01:38:55
have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release
01:39:00
[Music] somehow we need to get [Music] mer I'm going and now the plugs the all-in
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