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one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world he is known as one of the world's
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leading experts on economic development one of the most famous political scientists in
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history we're talking about moral and political principles here I would suggest that all four Wars could be
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ended quickly great power politics is now back on the table if we are anything as a world Community we have to
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implement what we've [Music] [Applause] said I'm excited for this panel we're going to talk about foreign policy uh we
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have I think two of the most interesting imminent renowned thinkers about foreign
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policy uh professor John mimer from University of Chicago and Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia so great to
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have you guys here today it's uh it's a it's a big world and there's a lot of things happening so
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let's just jump into it um the big news over the past week was that Dick Cheney endorsed kamla Harris for president I
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think for people who see the world in partisan political terms this might have been surprising but I don't think that
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you guys were that surprised by that do you see an underlying logic to this um Jeff why don't I start with you
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I think it's obvious there's basically one deep State party uh and that is the party of Cheney uh Harris Biden uh
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Victoria newand my colleague at Columbia University now uh and uh newand is kind
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of the face of all of this because she has been in every Administration for the last 30 years she was in the Clinton
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Administration wrecking our policies towards Russia in the 1990s she was uh in the Bush Administration Jor uh with
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Cheney uh wrecking our policies towards NATO enlargement uh she was in uh then the Obama Administration as Hillary's uh
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spokesperson first and then making a coup in Ukraine in February 2014 not a great move started a war then she was uh
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Biden's uh uh under Secretary of State now that's both parties uh it's a a colossal mess and um she's been Cheney's
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uh adviser she's been Biden's advisor she she uh and uh makes perfect sense this is the reality uh we're trying to
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find out if there's another party that's the big question and John what's what's
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your thought on that do you see any difference between uh Republicans and Democrats no I like to refer to the
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Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedle D and Tweedle du there's hardly any difference I actually
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think the one exception is that uh former president Trump when he became president in 2017 was bent on beating
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back to deep State and becoming a different kind of leader on the foreign policy front but he basically failed and
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he is vowed that if he gets elected this time uh it will be different and he will
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beat back the Deep State he will pursue a foreign policy that's fundamentally different uh than Republicans and
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Democrats have pursued up to now and the big question on the table is whether or
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not you think Trump can beat the Deep State and these two established parties uh and i' bet against Trump John um and
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Jeff but let's start with John can you actually Define for us for me I don't understand when people say deep State
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what it is I almost viewed the term comically we have one of our friends in our group chat who we called Deep state
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who is he's deep State he's really in the Deep state but we say it as a joke but for maybe the uninitiated what does
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it actually mean what are their incentives who are they Jeff maybe you want to start or
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John you want to start yeah I'll say a few words about it when we talk about the Deep State we're talking really
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about the administrative State it's very important to understand that starting in
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the late 19th early 20th century uh given developments uh in the American economy it was imperative that we
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develop and this was true of all Western countries a very powerful Central State
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that could run the country and over time that state has grown in power and since
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World War II the United States as you all know has been involved in every nook and cranny of the world fighting Wars
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Here There and Everywhere and to do that you need a very powerful administrative
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State uh that can help manage foreign policy but in the process what happens is you get all of these highlevel
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bureaucrats middle level and lowlevel bureaucrats who become established in positions in the Pentagon the state
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department the intelligence Community you name it and they end up having a vested interest in pursuing a particular
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foreign policy and the particular foreign policy that they like to pursue is the one that the Democrats and the
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Republicans are pushing and that's why we talk about Tweedle D and Tweedle Dum with regard to the two parties you could
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throw in uh the Deep State as being on the same page as those other two uh institutions yeah there there's a very
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interesting interview of Putin uh in figuro in 2017 and he says uh I've dealt with
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three presidents now they come into office with some ideas even but then uh the men in the dark suits and the blue
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ties and then he said I I wear red ties but they wear blue ties they come in and
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explain the way the world really is and there go the ideas and I think that's Putin's experience that's our experience
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that's my experience which is that there's a deeply entrained foreign policy it has been in place in my
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interpretation for many decades but arguably a variant of it has been in place since
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1992 I got to watch some of it early on because I was an adviser to gorb and I was an adviser to yelson and so I saw
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early makings of this though I didn't fully understand it except in retrospect but that policy has been mostly in place
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pretty consistently for 30 years and it didn't really matter whether it was Bush
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senior whether it was Clinton whether it was Bush Jr whether it was Obama whether
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it was Trump after all who did Trump hire he hired John Bolton well the uh pretty deep State uh that was the end of
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they told you know he explained this is the way it is and by the way Bolton explained also in his Memoirs when when
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Trump didn't agree we figured out ways to trick him basically so well and what what are their incentives is it war is
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it self-enrichment is it power is it all three is it some or is it yeah is it is
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it just is there a philosophical entrenchment or is it just this inertial issue that like once a policy begins
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it's hard to change and the system's just working with 10,000 people working towards it
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you know if I were lucky to sit next to the world's greatest political philosopher which I am um he'd give you
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a good answer which is that the right answer which is if you want to interpret American foreign policy it is to
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maximize power uh and uh he gives a John gives a an explanation of that we have uh some differences but I think it's a
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very good description of American uh foreign policy which is is that it's trying to maximize Global power
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essentially to be Global hegemon I I think it could get us all killed this is because it's a little bit delusional in
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my mind but uh not not the I not not his interpretation of their idea but the fact that they hold that idea is a
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little weird to me but in any event that's the idea and every time a decision comes inside that I've seen I'm
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an economist so I don't see security decisions the same way but every decision that I've seen always leans in
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the same direction for the last 30 years which is power as the central objective
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so Clinton faced an internal cabinate really debate should NATO be enlarged is this this is a post Cold War
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phenomenon that it's well I'll I'll let John take that just two very quick points first of all I do believe that
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the people people who uh are in favor of this foreign policy uh do believe in it
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it's not cynical they really believe that we're doing the right thing I've met them yeah no yeah the second point I
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would make to you and this sort of adds on to what Jeff said Jeff said power has
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a lot to do with this and is a good realist I of course believe that but it's also very important to understand
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that the United States is a fundamentally liberal country and we believe that we have a right we have a
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responsibility and we have the power to run around the world and remake the world in America's image most people in
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the foreign policy establishment the Republican Party the Democratic party they believe that and that is what has
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motivated our foreign policy in large part since the Cold War ended because remember when the cold war ends we have
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no rival great power left so what are we going to do with all this power that we
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have what we decide to do is go out and remake the world in our own image so that's a that's a values point of view
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though right that there are values that they hold dear that that many do hold dear that
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liberalism democracy does ultimately I believe I've heard this reduce conflict worldwide that there's an importance
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that we've never seen two democratic nations since World War II go to war and that there's a reason why we want to see
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liberalism kind of breed throughout the world and it's our responsib ability for
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world for Global Peace to make that a mandate let me step in for one moment okay sure very quickly and by the way
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I'm I'm I'm I'm I'm uh what do you call it where you pull the spirits of the the
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voice of others but I'm I'm just trying to channeling channeling that's the word
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I want to be very clear I am forever thankful that I was born in a liberal democracy and I love liberalism but the
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question here is do you think that we can run around the world imposing liberal democracy on other countries and
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some cases shoving it down their throat doing it at the end of a rifle barrel and my argument is that's almost
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impossible to do it almost always backfires think Iraq Afghanistan so forth and so on and secondly you begin
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to erode liberalism in the United States because you build a deep state right and
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you want to understand that a lot of the complaints here about cracking down on freedom of speech and so forth and so on
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are related to the fact that we have this ambitious foreign policy those two things go together in very important
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ways what an let me let me disagree just a bit uh because we agree actually on the behavior and I've learned I'd say
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most of that from you that it's power seeking truly John in my work 40 years uh overseas I don't think the US
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government gives a damn about these other places I I don't think they really care if it's a liberal democracy if it's
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a dictatorship they want the right of ways they want the military bases they want uh the state to be in support of
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the United States they want NATO enlargement I don't I know You' you've written and there are some who believe
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in stateb building God if they do they are so incompetent it's unbelievable but Professor s know I I'll give you an
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example if I put just one one example I'm I'm a friend with one of the only PhD Afghani Economist senior person in
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the US um Academia over the last 30 years you would think that the state department if they were interested in
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State Building would ask him one day one moment something about Afghanistan never
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happened never happened not even one question never happened he asked me can you get me a a meeting with the
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department they were completely uninterested this is this is about power you're too idealistic
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John they don't care about the other places they may feel we should be whatever we want free and so forth but
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Freedom I've been I've seen my with my own eyes the coups the overthrows the presidents democratic presidents LED
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away they don't care at all this is Washington be a realist come on Professor mimer
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I when we talk about power um there are other people in the world who are trying
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to accumulate power we live in a multi-polar world right now and they have in some cases very nefarious or bad
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intent um and they do not have democracy so it's one thing to you know tell uh people in Afghanistan you need to evolve
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you know to be a perfect democracy like the one we have here I think we all agree that's unrealistic and insane um
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and not practical but what about the free countries of the world uniting together to stop dictators from invading
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other free countries is that Noble is that a good use of power and a good framework for America to evolve too no I
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don't think so uh I think that what the United States should do is worry about its own National interest uh in some
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cases that's going to involve aligning ourselves with a dictator uh if we're fighting World War II all over again
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it's December 8th 1941 you surely would be in favor of allying with adol not with Adolf Hitler
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with Joseph Stalin and the Soviet Union against uh Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany
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sometimes you have to make those kind of compromises uh as I said before I love liberal democracy I have no problem
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align with liberal democracy but when you begin to think in the terms that you're thinking you end up uh with an
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Impulse to do social engineering around the world and that gets you in all sorts
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of problems well what I'm proposing is when dictatorships invade other countries then we take action it depends
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maybe def defend them so it depends yeah of course I mean when Russia invades Ukraine basically what you're saying is
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you want to go to war on behalf of Ukraine against Russia are you in favor of that no I would say diplomacy would
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obviously be what we'd want to exhaust but if they do roll into other fre countries I think there's an argument
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for the free countries of the world to get together and say two dictators we're not going to allow
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this could I come in here could I clarify a few things look uh first of all um almost all the time that we intervene
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it's because uh we view this as a power situation for the us so whether it's Ukraine or Syria or Libya or other
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places even if we Define it as defending something believe me it's not about defending something it's about a
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perception of us power and US interest and it's in objectives of us Global hegemony and if we analyze the Ukraine
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conflict uh just even a little bit below the surface this is not a a conflict about Putin invading Ukraine this is
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something a lot different that has to do with American power projection into the
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former Soviet Union so it's completely different second if we decide were the police which we
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do you can't imagine how cynical we use to justify our actions we used the cynical B that
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we're defending the people of Benghazi to bomb the hell out of Libya to kill moamar Gaddafi why did we do that well
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I'm kind of an expert on that region and I can tell you maybe because sarosi didn't like Gaddafi there's no much
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deeper reason except Hillary liked every bombing she could get her hands on and Obama was kind of convinced my secretary
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of state says go with it so why don't we go with the NATO Expedition it had nothing to do with Libya it un it
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Unleashed 15 years of chaos cheated the UN Security Council because like everything else we've done it was on
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false pretenses we did the same with trying to overthrow Syria we did the same with conspiring to overthrow Victor
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yanukovich in Ukraine in February 2014 so the problem with this argument is we're not nice guys we're not trying to
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save the world we're not trying to make democracies we had a committee by the way of all the
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luminaries you could mention but they're The neocon Crazies but they're luminaries the committee for the people
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of Cheta are you kidding do you think they even knew where chn is or cared about
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Chia but it was an opportunity to get at Russia to weaken Russia to support a jihadist movement inside Russia to do
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this is a game but it's the game that John has described better than any one in the world it's a game of power it's
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not that we're defending real things if you want to defend real things go to the
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UN Security Council and convince others because the other countries are not crazy and they don't want Mayhem in the
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world but we play game so they say that's a game Iraq which was obviously a game before we went in it was a
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obviously Co and Powell could not move his lips without lying that day obviously and so they said no but if
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we're real about our interests then you go to the UN Security Council and then it's not just on us it's actually then a
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collective security issue uh Professor M if we were to take Jeffrey's position here um that we are exerting power for
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the sake of you know our reputation and in fact to weaken dictatorships if I'm if I'm summarizing correctly here um is
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that not a good strategy to weaken dictators around the world who might like to invade other countries is there
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is there a frame Fring in which you could see that being um for you know a world where democracy and people living
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freely has gone down in our lifetimes is that not knowable is there not a justification somebody could make for
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I'm not saying I have that but I'm just trying to steal me on the other side of this is weakening dictators and despots
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a good strategy it depends uh well let's talk about the the two that we have you
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know uh Xi Jinping I think you wanted to get to eventually and then Ukraine and Putin are these people worth trying to
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you know uh contain or even weaken well in in terms of China I'm fully in favor of containing China okay so containment
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check it's containment I'm not interested in regime change I'm not interested in trying to turn China into
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a democracy not going to happen yeah not going to happen we tried it actually and
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I thought it was foolish to even pursue a policy of Engagement toward China with
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regard to Russia I don't think Russia is a serious threat to the United States and indeed I think the United States
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should have good relations with Putin it's a remarkably foolish policy to push him into the arms of the Chinese there
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are three great powers in the system the United States China and Russia China is
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a peer competitor to the United States it's the most serious threat to the United States Russia is the weakest of
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those three great powers and it's not a serious threat to us if you are playing balance and power politics and you're
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interested as the United States in containing China you want Russia on your side of the Ledger but what we have done
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in effect is we have pushed Russia into the arms of the Chinese this is a remarkably foolish policy and
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furthermore by getting bogged down in Ukraine and now bogged down in the Middle East it's become very difficult
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for us to Pivot to Asia to deal with China which is the principal threat that we face
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[Applause] can I think David could I just say uh 2/3 right perfect so you gave him a b or B plus a
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minus I always give him an A minus inflation I just wanted to add a footnote which is that China's also not
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a threat it's just not a threat I mean we're going to get to it ch ch China China's a market it's uh got great food
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great culture uh wonderful people a civilization 10 times older than ours it's not a threat well as an economist
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can you talk about the impact of a cold or hot conflict with China from an economic perspective given the trade
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relationship yeah it would wreck California for one thing it would destroy the economy that you guys are
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making completely this economy has been the biggest beneficiary of China's rise probably in the whole world so it's
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crazy maybe if you're worried if you're really worried about about whether uh a worker in Ohio has a particular job on a
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particular assembly line then uh you can be anti-china if you're worried about the tech industry about California about
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peace and the future you should be pro-china that's all so why is it become so Universal to assume that we are
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already in a state of conflict with China on not just party lines but like almost any Spectrum you could kind of
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like consider said it exact right and he predicted it better than anyone in the whole world in 2001 he said when China
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becomes large we're going to have conflict because that's John's Theory and it's right as a description of
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American foreign policy that we are for power they are big therefore they're an enemy they're an enemy of our aspiration
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to Global City tra City let let's let John jump in here do you want you want me to is it okay if I talk about this
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yeah yeah I mean I think um I think that um what's interesting I mean you and Jeff I think arrive at similar
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conclusions about Ukraine uh but different ones on China right because Jeff is an economist and I think sees
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the world in fundamentally positive some ways based on the potential for trade economics basically whereas you see the
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world as more of a zero sum game based on the balance of power why don't you just explain that difference I okay uh
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it is very important to emphasize David was saying that Jeff and I agree on all sorts of issues including Ukraine and
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Israel Palestine but we disagree fundamentally as he just made clear on China and let me explain to you why I
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think that's the case and then Jeff can tell you why he thinks I'm wrong uh it has to do with security whether
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you privilege security or survival or whether you privilege prosperity and economists and I would imagine most of
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you in the audience really care greatly about maximizing prosperity for someone like me who's a realist what I care
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about is maximizing the state's prospects of survival and when you live in an Antarctic system and in IR speak
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that means there's no higher authority there's no night Watchmen that can come down and rescue you if you get into
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trouble and this is the International System there's no higher authority in that anarchic world the best way to
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survive is to be really powerful as we used to say when I was a kid on New York City playgrounds you want to be the
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biggest and baddest dude on the Block and that's simply because it's the best way to survive if you're really powerful
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nobody fools around with you the United States is a regional hedgemon it's the only Regional hedgemon on the planet we
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dominate the Western Hemisphere and what China has begun to do as it's got increasingly powerful economically is
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translate that economic might into military might and it is trying to dominate Asia it wants to push us out
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beyond the first island chain it wants to push us out beyond the second island chain it wants to be like we are in the
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Western Hemisphere and I don't blame the Chinese one bit if I was the National Security advisor in Beijing that's what
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I'd be telling XI ping we should be trying to do but of course from an American point of view this is
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unacceptable and we do not tolerate peer competitors we do not want another Regional hedgemon on the planet in the
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20th century there were four countries that threatened to become Regional hegemons like us Imperial Germany
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Imperial Japan Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union the United States played a key role in putting all four of those
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countries on the scrap peap of History we want to remain the only Regional hedgemon in the world we are a ruthless
00:26:23
great power never want to lose sight of that fact and the end result of this is you get an intense security competition
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between China and the United States and it revolves around the concept of security not
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Prosperity what you just very quickly so what you see beginning to happen is that
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it's in all domains where the competition takes place especially high-tech we do not want them defeating
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this defeating Us in the Hightech War we are competing with them econom ically we
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are competing with them militarily and this is because the best way to survive is for us the United States of America
00:27:06
to be the only Regional hedgemon on the planet so Jeff let me let me set it up for for Jeff here so Jeff I you and John
00:27:18
I think agree that the the game on on the board is power seeking I think what John is saying is there are smart ways
00:27:26
and dumb ways to pursue power that containing China is a smart way what we're doing in Ukraine is a dumb
00:27:33
way whereas it seems like you're saying that all power seeking behavior is bad that's not the game we should be playing
00:27:39
we should somehow opt out of that is that is that kind of where you're going it's a it's not a bad way to say it but
00:27:45
I would I would put it in in another way I read a very good book uh John's um and and
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John described I'm going to quote him but he can quote himself afterwards he he he said that
00:28:04
the regional hegemons uh don't threaten each other actually why because we have big ocean
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in between I deeply believe that China is not a threat to the United States and I deeply
00:28:21
believe the only threat to the United States period in the world given the oceans given our size and given the
00:28:30
military is nuclear war I deeply believe we're close to nuclear war because we have a mindset
00:28:42
that leads us in that direction we have a mindset that everything is a challenge
00:28:47
for survival and that escalation is therefore always the right approach my view is a little bit of prudence could
00:28:56
save the whole planet so why I don't like Ukraine is that I don't see any reason in the world that
00:29:05
NATO has to be on Russia's border with Ukraine I was as I said gorbachov's adviser and yelton's adviser and they
00:29:14
wanted peace and they wanted cooperation but whatever they wanted they did not want the US military on their border so
00:29:23
if we continued to push as we did we would get to war John explained that better than anybody we're now at War and
00:29:32
even this morning there is further escalation blinkin has said well if the Iranians give these missiles then we
00:29:40
will give missiles to hit deep into Russia this is a recipe and then we had Bill Burns the CIA director say last
00:29:48
week an absurdity that he knows but Cia directors never tell the truth if they do they lose their job but he said don't
00:29:56
worry about nuclear war don't worry about saber rattling my advice to you is worry a lot about nuclear war and so be
00:30:06
prudent you don't have to put the US military on Russia's border okay and my advice to Russia and to Mexico when I'm
00:30:16
going to Mexico tomorrow I'll give them a piece of advice don't let China or Russia build a military base on the r
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Grant not a good idea for Mexico not a good good idea for Ukraine not a good idea for Russia not a good idea for
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China not a good idea for the United States we need to stay a little bit away from each other so that we don't have a
00:30:39
nuclear war by the way I do recommend another good book and that is Annie Jacobson's nuclear war a scenario it
00:30:47
takes two hours to read the world ends in two hours in the book uh and uh it's a very
00:30:54
persuasive guide that one nuke can ruin your whole day as they say Jeffrey can um uh my my strong advice on this
00:31:05
therefore is recognize China first of all is not a threat to the United States security big oceans big nuclear
00:31:16
deterrent and so forth second we don't have to be in China's face what do I mean by that we don't have to provoke
00:31:24
World War III Over Taiwan that's a long complicated issue but this would be the stupidest thing for my grandchildren to
00:31:31
die for imaginable and I resent it every day when we play that game we have three
00:31:39
agreements with China that say we're going to stay out of that and we should and then China would have no reason for
00:31:46
war either China and then on the economic side let me just reiterate because I was asked
00:31:55
yesterday and there was some surprise was it good to let China into the the WTO I said of course it enriched all of
00:32:03
you by the way it enriched me it enriched this country it enriched the world including enriching China that's
00:32:11
normal economics is not a zero sum game we all agree on that I believe that security doesn't have to be a zero sum
00:32:19
game either we can stay a little bit away from each other and China does not spend its time beon in America being a
00:32:29
western hemisphere hegemon they don't that's not their greatest interest to bring down American uh Power in the
00:32:38
Western Hemisphere Jee what about the energy hold on let's let John respond to this just very quickly most of you have
00:32:45
probably never asked yourself the question why is the United States roaming all over the planet interfering
00:32:52
in every country's business it's in part because it's so powerful but it's also because it's a hegemon which means we
00:32:59
have no threats in the Western Hemisphere so we are free to roam the great danger Jeff if China becomes a
00:33:08
regional hedgemon and doesn't have to worry about security conc then they behave like us yeah then they behave
00:33:13
like us exact but my point to you Jeff is let's prevent that from happening by preventing them from becoming a regional
00:33:22
hedgemon we don't want them to have freedom to roam you were talking about them putting military bases in Mexico
00:33:30
that's our great fear it's not my great fear they have no interest in doing so because they don't want to get blown up
00:33:36
either so they do seem to have a big interest Jeff in Africa India Russia and they
00:33:43
are China has a major um military bases there oh well they're building nuclear power plants in
00:33:50
trade and they're building de difference in favor of that let's go compete that way I'm all in favor of that but Jeff
00:33:56
that's cuz they're not a Regal hegemon yet yeah if you try to prevent them from being a regional hegemon we're going to
00:34:04
end up in World War I because as you say yourself that this can absolutely spill
00:34:10
over into war I don't want it to spill over into war on the theory that maybe someday they behave differently that's
00:34:18
not a good theory for me so so so that part so John can we contain China prevent them from becoming a regional
00:34:25
haimon without Direct ly defending Taiwan I mean isn't that where the rubber meets the road no it's not just
00:34:32
Taiwan I mean one could argue there's sort of three flash points in East Asia that you folks should keep your eye on
00:34:38
one is obviously Taiwan two is the South China Sea and three is the East China Sea and I think David that the place
00:34:46
where a conflict is most likely today is not over Taiwan I could explain why I think Taiwan is not a serious problem at
00:34:53
the moment or for the foreseeable future the South China Sea is a very dangerous
00:34:57
place we could end up in a war for sure even if we did not defend Taiwan uh so Taiwan you don't want to
00:35:07
overemphasize I agree with I agree with Jeff that we definitely don't want a war
00:35:14
and we certainly don't want a nuclear war and he is absolutely correct that there's a risk of a nuclear war if a war
00:35:20
breaks out of any sort between China and the United States many of us in the audience remember the Cold War and this
00:35:27
was an everpresent danger in the Cold War but my argument is that this is inevitable because in a world where you
00:35:34
don't have a higher authority and you care about your survival you have a deep-seated interest as any state in the
00:35:41
system to be as powerful as possible and that means dominating your world um there is one uh player on this chess
00:35:50
board that hasn't come up yet and then maybe we could skate to where the puck is going you know when you talk about
00:35:55
the South China Sea okay sure South Korea Japan Jaan Australia all those major players there they're just a
00:36:00
couple hundred million people but then China is in population decline she apparently is self-destructing in terms
00:36:06
of trade seems like uh containment is working pretty well there because of the all the self-inflicted wounds but the
00:36:12
fastest growing country fastest growing economy the quickest to develop is India
00:36:17
and they seem to have a very pragmatic approach hey they'll buy cheap oil from Putin and they are their own sovereign
00:36:23
country with their own point of view Would we not be really well advised over the next 10 to 20 years to make that our
00:36:30
priority and India's role in this how do you look at them well we definitely view
00:36:34
India as an ally right it's part of the Quad which is this uh this rubbe Goldberg type Alliance structure that we
00:36:43
put together in East Asia that includes Australia Japan the United States and India and India is smartly maintaining
00:36:52
its good relations with Russia the Indians understand like Jeff and I do that the Russians are no great threat
00:36:59
but from India's point of view the real threat is China right right and there are two places where India cares about
00:37:05
China One is on the India China border up in the Himalayas where they've actually had conflicts right and there's
00:37:13
a real danger of War breaking out the second place which is maybe even more dangerous not at the moment but will be
00:37:20
over time is the Indian Ocean because the Chinese are imitating the United States they not not only want to be a
00:37:28
regional hedgemon they want to develop power projection capability so the Chinese are building a Bluewater Navy
00:37:35
that can come out of East Asia through the Straits of Mala through the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf and once you
00:37:44
start talking about going through the Indian Ocean the Indians get spooked and that's when the Americans in the Indians
00:37:51
come together okay let's think of this from an engineering point of view if we could um
00:37:58
why are the Chinese developing the Navy because for 40 years I've read essays on
00:38:07
all of the choke points uh in the South China Sea the East China Sea the Indian Ocean against China that's our policy
00:38:17
choke points look at the malaka Straits look what we can do here first island chain this is American strategy can we
00:38:25
keep the Chinese submarine out of the Pacific Ocean First China first island chain and so forth so of course they
00:38:34
react they're rich they're going to build a Navy so that they can get their oil on which their economy runs can we
00:38:40
be a little bit sensible with them and decide how we're not going to have choke points and then we don't have to have a
00:38:47
nuclear war which is really going to ruin our day that's the point we can think a little bit we can understand it
00:38:54
from their perspective we can understand it from our perspec perspective deconfliction by the way I don't believe
00:39:03
India is an ally India is a superpower India is going to have its own very distinctive interests thank you
00:39:13
it's not going to be an ally of the United States I happen to like India enormously and and admire their policies
00:39:20
but the idea that India is going to Ally with the United States against China in somebody's dream uh in
00:39:29
Washington because it's another delusion in Washington because they should get a
00:39:33
passport and go see the world and and and understand something but Jeffrey if they these are
00:39:43
my fa students in Washington right now cuz they didn't listen to their Professor Jeffrey we're we're making our
00:39:49
iPhones in India now is that not significantly important say again we're moving iPhone production maybe Cooper
00:39:58
you're into economics here and that impact you you got Apple moving out of China you've got Japan funding people
00:40:05
leaving China to Vietnam and to India is that not the solution here as we decouple from China it seems like they
00:40:10
come back to the table we had XI jingping kick all the Venture capitalists all investment out of China
00:40:16
he got rid of all the education startups and then whatever two or three years later he's in San Francisco asking all
00:40:22
of us to invest more money and saying where'd you go okay first of all uh invite me back 10 years and we'll see
00:40:29
how smart all these decisions are because uh Shing it's incred no I'm talking about yes we've moved to India
00:40:36
that's our great Ally and then then we're going to have other other issues okay you I think you said that XI
00:40:43
jinping's trade policy is uh implo self- imploding or something it seems like there's a lot of self-inflicted wounds
00:40:50
when you it's not let me explain what the wounds are okay the wounds are the United States deliberate policy to stop
00:40:58
you from selling things to China and to stop China buying things from you that's
00:41:03
not self-inflicted this a clear wait minute just to say let me say please because it's very important for the
00:41:10
economy of the people in this room this is a decision that was taken around 2014 to contain China and it's been
00:41:21
systematically applied since then and it's not a surprise that Biden kept all the things that Trump did and
00:41:30
added more and now Trump says I'm going to do all the things that Biden has kept
00:41:35
in place and I'm going to do more this is not a self-inflicted wound the United States has closed the market to China
00:41:43
okay is that smart no it's not smart is it leading to uh is it by the way recuperating American manufacturing jobs
00:41:55
zero it may shift them a bit it make may make things less efficient it may may make all of you lose a bit more money or
00:42:04
not make as much money but is it going to solve any single economic problem in the United States no way let
00:42:14
me John let let John spicy I I just want to ask Jeff a question on this uh my argument is that this is the
00:42:24
way the world Works yes I know and it is and it is but if I'm describing how the
00:42:30
world really works how do you beat me the the reason is you've described a world you've described I think better
00:42:39
than any person I ever read or know how American foreign policy works I think it's likely to get us all blown up you
00:42:49
you not and you title not not because of John but because he made an accurate description of a profoundly misguided
00:42:59
approach which is power seeking even if you're safe as a regional hegemon you're never safe if
00:43:08
another Regional hegemon does what you do no you can't allow that to happen so you have to metal every single place in
00:43:14
the world this now all I'm saying wait let me just finish because it's important that it is important to
00:43:22
say try this in the nuclear age you don't get a second chance so this to me is the most definitive
00:43:31
fact of Our Lives which is we are now in a war direct War direct War not proxy war direct war with Russia which has
00:43:42
6,000 nuclear warheads I can't think of anything more imbecilic than that aside from the fact that I know step by step
00:43:51
because I saw it with my own eyes how we got into that mess because we thought we
00:43:56
had to medal up to including putting NATO into Georgia in the caucuses of all places and Ukraine so we made that
00:44:06
because we have to medal because we couldn't let good enough uh stand if we do the same with China there will be a
00:44:16
war but it's not like reading about the Crimean War or World War One or World War II that's my difference this is a
00:44:25
fine theory that explains a lot of things but damn if you can make chat GPT or you can make Optimus or you can make
00:44:35
all the rest we can avoid nuclear war so just do a little bit better than saying
00:44:41
it's inevitable all right so we only have a minute left so I want to give it to John I just want to ask he
00:44:49
had a question I know but we only have a minute left and it's we got to add five
00:44:52
minutes this is the best panel I've ever been on in my life can we just add 10 minutes minutes we got to add 5 or 10
00:44:58
minutes the best panel is this the best panel ever I feel like calling a respond
00:45:02
wa wa before okay we got 5 minutes so before before we leave this topic John your book is called the tragedy of great
00:45:10
power politics you clearly understand the tragic aspect of how great power rivalry great power competition can lead
00:45:17
to disaster what Jeff is saying is we're now in the nuclear age and it's going to
00:45:22
lead to nuclear war so do we have to be on this path or is there way off of it two points in my heart I'm with Jeff in
00:45:32
my head I'm not with Jeff I wish he were right but I don't believe he's right to
00:45:38
answer your question head-on I believe that there is no way out we are in an iron cage this is just the way
00:45:46
International politics works and it's because you're in an anarchic system where you can never be sure that a
00:45:52
really powerful state in the system won't come after you and inflict A Century of national humiliation on you
00:45:58
so you go to Great Lengths to avoid that by trying to gain power at the expense of another power and that leads to all
00:46:07
sorts of trouble can War be avoided I like to distinguish between security competition which I think is inevitable
00:46:15
and War which is where security competition evolves into war I think War can be avoided and we were thankfully
00:46:22
successful in that regard during the Cold War and hopefully that will be the case uh in the US China competition
00:46:29
moving forward can I guarantee that no uh does this disturb me greatly yes but again this is just a tragic aspect of
00:46:41
the world let me just ask one because we're a little bit I know we were going to try and talk about Middle East for a
00:46:47
good chunk of this so I just want a scenario uh uh propose or kind of give you guys a scenario get your reaction
00:46:54
because it is kind of what feels to be the most imminent uh theater of conflict uh the West Bank um the the Israelis are
00:47:03
buttressing the settlements there's a lot of checkpoints things are getting very tense they're running raids and
00:47:09
it's becoming a very difficult place to live for Palestinians and there's a real
00:47:11
concern that the West Bank collapses and Israelis and Israelis but there's a real
00:47:16
risk that the West Bank collapses and turns into a real conflict Zone if that happens the jordanians are sitting right
00:47:24
there and they're not going to let Palestinians get slaughtered they're going to have to do something and
00:47:27
they're such a strong Ally of the United States does that trigger a theater of response where what is Saudi
00:47:36
going to do are others going to be drawn to the region does the collapse of the West Bank or the the the conflict that
00:47:41
seems to be brewing in the West Bank become this kind of Tinder Box for everyone showing up and getting involved
00:47:48
and um uh and create some sort of regional issue that we get drawn into in a bigger way can I start and have John
00:47:57
have the last word uh you know I I work uh each day at the UN um and discuss this issue with ambassadors from all
00:48:05
over the world there is over the last 50 years a a an agreement on what would make for
00:48:14
peace and the agreement is uh two states uh maybe with a big wall between them on
00:48:22
the 4th of June 1967 borders with a state of Palestine being the 194th UN member state and its
00:48:30
capital in East Jerusalem and control over the Islamic holy sites and that is international law the international
00:48:39
court of justice just reaffirmed that the Israeli settlements in the West Bank are illegal uh the uh international
00:48:47
criminal court uh uh is likely to find or icj is likely to find that Israel is in violation of the 1948 genocide
00:48:56
convention which I very much believe it to be in violation so my own solution to this is
00:49:04
Implement International law two states build the wall as high as you need to build but uh you give Palestinian rights
00:49:12
you establish a state of Palestine you stop the Israeli Slaughter of Palestinians you stop the Israeli
00:49:19
apartheid state and uh you have uh two states living side by side Israel is dead set against that uh the entire
00:49:29
Israeli political uh governance now is dead set against that hundreds of thousands of illegal settlers in the
00:49:38
West Bank are dead set against that smotrich benir Galant Netanyahu are dead set against that so my view is it has
00:49:47
nothing to do with what Israel wants it has to do with enforcement of international law so I want to see this
00:49:53
imposed not because Israel agrees to it but because it is imposed and there is one country that stands in the way of
00:50:02
imposing this not Iran not the Saudis not Egypt not Russia not China not any country in the European Union one
00:50:11
country and one country alone and that is because of the United States of America and the is Israel Lobby somebody
00:50:19
wrote a very good book about that too that I know uh the best book ever written about it by John uh uh and um
00:50:27
that's what stops the solution that could bring peace and I believe we should bring peace because not only
00:50:35
would that bring peace to the Palestinians and peace to the Israelis but it would avoid potentially another
00:50:41
flasho that could easily end up in World War II let me answer your question about
00:50:48
escalation potential the jordanians coming in uh Israel faces three big problems aside from problems with
00:50:56
centrifical forces inside the society one is the Palestinian problem which is both in Gaza and in the West Bank it's
00:51:04
one two is Hezbollah and three is Iran I think there is virtually no chance of what you described happening
00:51:14
which is if the Israelis were to go on a rampage in the West Bank similar what they've done in Gaza that the jordanians
00:51:21
would come in or the Egyptians or the Saudis they simply don't have the military capability this is a scenario
00:51:28
where the Israelis completely dominate so in terms of escalation with regard to the Israel Palestine problem I don't
00:51:36
think there's much potential Hezbollah is a different issue uh but mainly because it's linked with Iran right and
00:51:45
Iran is the really dangerous flasho because as you know the Russians are now closely allied with the Iranians the
00:51:52
Chinese are moving in that direction as well and if Israel gets involved in a war with
00:52:00
Iran we're going to come in in all likelihood remember when the Israelis attacked the uh the Iranian Embassy in
00:52:12
Damascus on April 1st on April 14th the Iranians retaliated reciprocal response yeah but but we were involved
00:52:22
we were we were forewarned weren't we yes we were forewarned but the point is that we were involved in the fighting
00:52:28
right we were involved with the Israelis with the French the British the jordanians and the Saudis we were all
00:52:33
involved in the fighting so this gets at the escalation problem now to counter the Iranian escalation scenario the fact
00:52:43
is Iran does not want a war with the United States and the United States does not want a war with Iran and it's the
00:52:51
Israelis especially Benjamin Netanyahu has been who has been trying to sort of suck us into a war because he wants us
00:52:59
the United States to really whack Iran weaken it militarily and especially to go after its nuclear capabilities
00:53:07
because as you well know they are close to the point where they can develop nuclear weapons so the Israelis are the
00:53:13
ones who want us to get involved in a big war with Iran that's the escalation flasho and The $64,000 question is
00:53:22
whether you think the United States and Iran kind of loting can work together to
00:53:28
prevent the Israelis from getting us that that question will be answered based on the next who who who leads the
00:53:35
next Administration well if you believe that it matters who leads the next Administration that's
00:53:43
true take it out thank you let me just say Jeffrey and John now I know why saxs will not stop talking about you too this
00:53:53
was the most amazing panel of the event so far are give it up for Jeffrey Sachs and John Mir shimer all
00:54:01
right wow