00:00:00
so wait a second you guys I saw that you were at a kotu conference or a tpg conference or at some banking
00:00:07
conference sax Brad and I were both at the coaching Summit CO2 kotu is uh and a large investor is it a hedge fund
00:00:15
private Equity they're a late stage fund it's being lazy Tron summit's a really big word it was at a summit or was it
00:00:21
more like a meeting well it's like a two-day conference in Santa Barbara oh nice they've done a
00:00:28
number of years in a row now last year Brad and I went and we met with SBF never tell you that SPF story no let's
00:00:38
go who's got crazier you or SPF give us a quick take that hat off for a second take that Moncler off for a second let's
00:00:45
get it side by side oh my God sax is using no product it's not bad it's not that bad you're
00:00:54
starting to look like the emperor like Senator Palpatine from Star Wars I mean people are having a field day with this
00:00:59
crazy hair but what was the vibe if you said there was a Vibe two years ago the vibe was crypto Mania SPF was the bell
00:01:07
of the ball I suppose he'll be the bell of the ball when he goes in the uh as well
00:01:12
I know it looks like he's getting off he's getting up I thought he was getting off I guess the fix in is the ivy league
00:01:17
fixes him oh God I agree can you imagine if he gets off he's almost as protected as Hunter Biden
00:01:24
here we go okay everybody freeburg's not here this week insert jokes and conspiracy theories for the mids there's
00:01:33
going to be about 8 000 messages on a subreddit about Freeburg missing this week and sax missing last week I'll let
00:01:38
you guys all uh read into it but would you say Brad Brad Garson are back of course Chef bestie Brad what would you
00:01:44
say the vibe was at this one if it was SPF lunacy two years ago what was the five this year
00:01:50
well you know first they put on incredible events called East Meets West and it was really about bringing you
00:01:57
know CEOs and Founders from China to the states and connecting them with uh Founders and CEOs in the United
00:02:03
States um listen I think it's somber right there's a recognition that we've seen
00:02:09
about in the public markets you know off of this Devastation in 2022 but I think listen they gave a great
00:02:18
tough love speech discussion with the 1400 unicorns that are out there and they said do not
00:02:25
expect your unprofitable tech company to bounce like one of The Magnificent Seven
00:02:30
right those are highly profitable companies traded 1920 times earnings and if you are burning cash today there you
00:02:38
can't come back to the well so you need to either figure out how to get profitable figure out how to get fit
00:02:45
or you need to sell your business because you know the there's not an endless stream of money so I thought it
00:02:52
was a sober view you know Larry Summers was there and I think a lot of the people who call 22 right were looking
00:02:59
for a hard Landing in q1 of this year probably including you know Larry was probably more in that
00:03:06
camp and I think everybody still views this distribution of probabilities over the
00:03:11
course the next four quarters and you know whether it's drucken Miller Stern lit this morning on CNBC or whether it's
00:03:17
Larry Summers they're all saying well we could 30 chance of a hard Landing Q4 q1
00:03:21
so I would say it was sober yeah I could tell it was sober snacks go ahead you want to say something well I would say
00:03:27
last year it was somber in a different way because you gotta remember in the first half of 2022 you had this huge
00:03:33
decline in the markets around growth stocks because interest rates said started going up we had the whole regime
00:03:37
change but I don't think Founders had internalized the way that it applied to them and then the thing that has
00:03:44
happened over the past year is that the sales have been hit you know every software company that I know is
00:03:51
re-forecasting down it's so much hard to grow customers are consolidating vendors
00:03:56
sharpening their pencils seat expansion has been replaced with seat contraction so negotiations are hard right yes
00:04:04
right now to sell software than it was let's say a year ago you know 2x is now the new 3x if you can go up 2x in this
00:04:12
environment it's basically it's going through X before it's funny to me that how much the fed's actions impact
00:04:21
buying Behavior that's the thing that I understand psychology is distinctly different yeah yeah the psychology
00:04:26
really is different yeah I mean we knew that the fed's behavior influenced valuations and sort of capital markets
00:04:33
but the way that it influences the business Outlook and and how willing companies are to spend money and CO2 is
00:04:39
no different I see they hired Billy McFarland from fire Festival to do the food um what is this should be ashamed of
00:04:48
themselves look at this Focaccia some vegetable soup with the broth drained out Superstar measures are so wrong look
00:04:57
at this I mean it looks like a dog went to the bathroom and I opened our lunch box and we're like uh let's let's go
00:05:03
somewhere else on a budget wow it looks like a surprise had someone to put a surprise in our
00:05:15
wow well listen it's good coach LP should be very happy looking at that seven dollar
00:05:20
lunch that they put out there I mean right should we tell the SPF story from last year's Summit I mean last year we
00:05:26
talked about the maybe Founders hadn't internalized yet but the market said corrected but the one founder who was
00:05:31
super bullish and optimistic and talking about how he was spraying money all over
00:05:37
the place and he was acquiring companies and who was followed around by minions and had everyone like a beehive
00:05:44
surrounding him and trying to talk to him was SPF and so I remember yeah so I remember
00:05:51
thinking like who's going to be this year's SPF you know somebody here with Sam Altman there so basically the
00:06:00
kotu conference went from [ __ ] to dog [ __ ] [Laughter] Brad is like look at Brad it's so
00:06:09
uncomfortable Brad's like I like this invite exactly I got a good invite shamoth and I are invited to nothing we
00:06:17
give no shits about code 2 or their budget they do put on a really good event incredible firm and I think that
00:06:23
the message they gave to Founders thanks for the invite this year and last year was great it was actually really
00:06:28
appropriate whether Founders choose to listen is a different story but the message they've been conveying
00:06:33
is similar to the message we've been conveying for the last year and a half hey chamoth any more uh jokes we can
00:06:38
make about CO2 since you and I get invited to nothing no I mean I'm not making fun of kotu I
00:06:44
was just making fun of the fact that we went for literally [ __ ] with SPF to what looks like dog [ __ ]
00:06:50
by the way I bet they would invite you if you wanted to go I'm pretty sure they would send 10 invitations if I if I even
00:06:57
feigned a desire to go but I'm in Milan right now the pod's very popular there by the way I know you
00:07:05
did a focus group tell everybody can we play the focus group or was that I think
00:07:09
we could play it well just a fan a fan came up to me I mean when I say fan this is like a very high profile person this
00:07:15
woman works at Netflix she's she works at Netflix and her husband is the founder of a startup she said she was a
00:07:21
fan of the Pod so I started asking her questions about it the focus group because you know we've been having this
00:07:26
debate over the last couple of weeks about what issues we should be talking about and so people on the Pod never
00:07:33
want to discuss politics it's not like I only want to discuss politics I just don't want to exclude it I think we
00:07:39
should just be talking about whatever the biggest issues are in the world in any given week current events yeah I
00:07:45
mean whether it's business markets or politics and she confirmed that was basically right don't change it so I I
00:07:51
don't know why we would want to change the formula for the pot at this point every week sax there's a group of people
00:07:57
who are like stop talking about politics and then there's another group of people
00:08:00
and their feedback is why didn't you talk about Hunter Biden Ukraine Ukraine Putin China whatever
00:08:06
and so the docket is the docket just to let the audience know not that it's like all that big of a deal it
00:08:14
should be fairly obvious everybody has equal input on the docket so it's not like anybody uh owns the docket if you
00:08:19
want to talk about something you can talk about something but some people want to not talk about politics some
00:08:23
people want to talk about a lot of politics The Magnificent Seven for those people who didn't catch the reference is
00:08:28
I think something Cramer's been talking about on CNBC seven stocks make up the mo most of the gains this year meta
00:08:36
Tesla Nvidia Amazon alphabet Microsoft and Apple can I tell you guys my welcome back to Milan story oh yeah absolutely
00:08:44
so I'm back in Milan for the summer on this Throne Senator Stefano and if you could say hi to um stefanoia all my
00:08:52
friends uh Butlers everybody I can tell you're back in Italy because the buttons
00:08:55
are gone I'm working for my office here but this morning I went to Coppola which is my
00:09:01
stylist my hairdresser oh and the thing is there's like a hierarchy in the hairdressers and so Roberto this guy
00:09:08
Roberto he's like the sort of top of the ticket and Nat has first dibs with Roberto and I have this other guy who's
00:09:14
excellent his name is jokino yes you guys will see tokino in a few weeks anyways the best thing about the
00:09:20
haircuts at this place Coppola is you get a hair fluffer which means that as jokino Roberto Cuts your hair
00:09:27
a guy comes and he's just like he like does this and then he like you're patting your hair in a very he
00:09:35
fluffs your hair he's a very uncomfortable it's a roughing that doesn't exist anywhere that will never
00:09:42
get disrupted by Ai and it's incredible a hair styling the hair fluffer the hair fluffer gets like
00:09:50
a 50 Euro tip doesn't matter what he does wow when sax rolls in you're gonna need
00:09:56
two fluffers with that hair because I need one on each side I mean the Tufts are getting crazy sucks tell me if you
00:10:01
want your keynote to cut your hair because when you come because he will do it he'll do an incredible job and I'll
00:10:06
ask him to bring the hair fluffer all right listen I I think we just going back to the CO2 thing I know we're in a
00:10:11
high interest rate lunch environment the herp environment is hard right now for everybody but we did get the feedback
00:10:17
let's play the feedback hey guys I'm at the coach who Summit and uh just met a friend who wants to explain the magic of
00:10:26
the Pod because you guys keep wanting to change things and mess things up so everyone
00:10:33
um my husband and I were let's listen to your podcast pretty much religiously and
00:10:36
there is this incredible magic that the four of you have of the red party the back and forth it's super informative
00:10:42
but you're all sort of rooting for characters almost so it's almost like a scripted show in some way so I have my
00:10:47
favorite character my husband has his favorite character I want so who's who because I want you all to stay together
00:10:52
and keep doing the show but it's fantastic and we we love it and you work at Netflix right I work at
00:10:58
Netflix back in the day I produce shows so pick up the shows you're telling David trying to get that magic you can
00:11:03
put any number of scripts together but once you get the cast on the floor and actually start getting you know that
00:11:08
chemistry going that's when the magic happens and you guys kind of just nailed it so yeah all right so that's a
00:11:14
professional right there so stop screwing with the formula stop protesting oh I mean
00:11:23
the camera really does add 10 pounds doesn't it I take two things away from this chamoth number one she's much more
00:11:29
charismatic on camera than sax she stole the show she's delightful and then two that sweater oh my Lord
00:11:36
fantastic no the sweater is fantastic the shirt's fantastic I just think they may not have been I don't think the
00:11:43
intention was to mesh the two together but too many buttons for future moth no bro when you have a cream colored
00:11:50
sweater you can't wear a red checkered shirt it's just not yeah yeah I agree red striped anyways it's uh yeah I mean
00:11:58
it looks like you're wearing an Italian tablecloth under there from a pizzeria combined with like an eight thousand
00:12:03
dollar sweater I agree but the hair I mean the hair is out of control I think the hair is fantastic I do don't share
00:12:10
do not cut the hair don't let your Kino touch your hair bro I'll just get it fluffed I'll tell them just fluff it
00:12:16
don't just hit it [Music] let your winners [Music] we open source it to the fans and
00:12:30
they've just gone crazy with them [Music] let's talk about the zuckily on cage match oh yeah oh my God this is I'm a
00:12:41
little worried for my friend here yeah it looks like Elon is completely up to date on what kind of shape Zuck is in
00:12:48
Zuck is in tremendous shape he's got like a dojo at his house he's been getting training in you know mixed
00:12:55
martial arts from Jiu Jitsu the Gracies or whoever you know Jitsu he's been competing in events Zuck is in
00:13:03
tremendous shape and uh no joke here now elon's a big guy elon's a monster but I
00:13:09
mean elon's not elon's not in this kind of shape you don't have time to work out
00:13:13
like this I hope you get some sort of Gracie on your team to train you up for this thing
00:13:19
also Elon has a neck injury that he got yeah from that Sumo thing years ago yes and he's had to have surgeries on it so
00:13:28
it'd really suck if that would get re-triggered here's the thing though he did take on a sumo wrestler we were
00:13:33
there for that at his birthday party and he held his own against the giant sumo wrestler if Yuan does get on top of and
00:13:42
do the walrus on top of Zuck Zuck has no chance he will get worse you're telling me what he should do is
00:13:51
abandon the mission to Mars yes stop electrifying the world totally and stop free internet around the world yeah so
00:14:02
he can beat up Zuck I mean if you were to put that to a boat speeding up suck as number one
00:14:10
this is the dumbest [ __ ] idea I've ever heard in my life oh my God I love the banter between the two of them and
00:14:17
let's just say we can all agree out of all the companies right there's only one Contender to Zuck getting fit right
00:14:25
getting that company fit getting himself fit is Elon yeah 75 80 of the people gone in product velocity is on fire at
00:14:33
Twitter so this is this would be a cage match between the two who have defined this era of getting fit
00:14:41
all right let's get to the docket here what the [ __ ] are you talking about he's
00:14:46
using that Fitness the guy burned a quarter trillion dollars and then found a way to stop it
00:14:52
well there you go that's very different than firing on all cylinders in three companies I didn't say he was firing on
00:14:58
also and by the way I am the only one of anybody I think that knows me both well
00:15:03
maybe socks well it's kind of like you know if you've got like a faucet running and it's spilling over the sink and then
00:15:09
you turn it off that doesn't make you a firefighter you just make you a plumber stop spending money on there's a feature
00:15:21
of a bathtub where when you get into it and the water gushes so violently over the over the outside of it yeah and then
00:15:28
there's a drain at the top as well as the bottom and so then eventually it just stops yes
00:15:33
yeah but tomorrow is a good point which is look elon's a big guy if he got training in MMA I'm sure he'd do fine
00:15:41
but we don't want Elon spending two hours a day for the next six months or whatever because zuck's been doing MMA I
00:15:47
guess for a while a couple years maybe years he's into it yeah all right well listen there's been some updates
00:15:52
this uh War between Russia and the Ukraine or the invasion of Ukraine by Russia you wrote
00:16:00
a piece about it in what was it the Federalist I think this week titled the truth about Ukraine's falling
00:16:07
failing counter-offensive and the peace that could have been why don't you give us an overview of what you wrote and
00:16:14
what your take is on the State of Affairs right now well the the thing that's been going on
00:16:18
since around June 4th or June 5th is this long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive
00:16:24
this has been touted for a long time as is going to reverse Russian territorial gains uh Ukraine's gonna use all this
00:16:31
modern Western Equipment these leopard tanks that have come from Germany and Bradley's from the United States and a
00:16:38
lot of other NATO or American equipment and they're going to push Russia out of their country this has been
00:16:45
told to us since the fall of last year since that sort of car keys counter-offensive
00:16:52
produce some Ukrainian territorial gains you've had former generals like Ben Hodges and Petraeus say that this
00:17:00
counteroffensive is going to be highly successful where it stands right now is that around 18 or 19 days into it it has
00:17:06
produced minimal gains in fact it's been somewhat of a disaster it's hard to get
00:17:14
conclusive estimates of personnel and material losses but I think as many as a quarter of the tanks and armored
00:17:23
vehicles have already been destroyed and the casualties may be as high as around
00:17:28
10 000 out of an army that was trained up for this purpose of around fifty thousand so so far it has not gone well
00:17:35
the the Ukrainian Army hasn't even made it to the first line of defense so what the Russians did
00:17:43
is they created three fortified lines or belts of defense and then in front of that is what they call a gray zone or
00:17:51
security zone or crumple Zone which is an area they can test but it's not technically a fortified line the
00:17:57
ukrainians are still in that sort of Gray Zone they are not punching through they are not even at the first Russian
00:18:04
fortified line to give you some idea of what's involved here the Russians have these obstacles
00:18:11
there's basically trenches have been dug there's ditches that would stop tanks or
00:18:16
sort of force them to go in a certain direction steer the traffic there's extensive minefields they've got these
00:18:22
things called Dragon Teeth which are concrete bollards that stop tanks or move them in a certain direction then
00:18:29
the Russians have massive amounts of artillery they've got infantry on the ground that helps spot the artillery and
00:18:35
if all of that doesn't take out these Ukrainian tanks they've got these attack helicopters that come in almost
00:18:43
uncontested because at this point it doesn't look like the ukrainians have any air defense and they've also got
00:18:48
fixed-wing aircraft that are capable of dropping Precision munitions so it really seems like the Russians
00:18:55
have fixed a lot of the problems that they had last fall in their army and so far it seems like this counter offensive
00:19:02
is not going anywhere we're 16 months into this chamoth and it clearly fatigue is setting in it's not
00:19:10
commanding the new cycle here in America and on a percentage basis even the neocons and Republicans are dropping
00:19:20
their support for this at a pretty precipitous rate which is predictable Americans
00:19:25
don't want to be in Forever Wars we all know that so what's your take on how this winds up especially in relation to
00:19:32
a our budget and B this upcoming election which this seems to be will be a major issue if this isn't resolved by
00:19:41
the time we get into the 24 election cycle that's part of answering this I have a question for sax but is it true
00:19:47
that there was a ceasefire like Putin had a press conference where he showed the document that he said was was a
00:19:54
ceasefire that then the United States apparently sent Boris Johnson over to Russia Ukraine to basically blow up blow
00:20:01
up the agreement yes this is finally correct this wasn't a ceasefire this was a peace deal before the war started
00:20:08
correct there were rounds of negotiation before the war notably there was a round of
00:20:16
diplomacy between blinken and lavrov in January the month before the war where blinken said that we cannot compromise
00:20:22
on NATO's open door policy that that sort of diplomacy fell apart but then after the war there was a meeting of the
00:20:29
Russian delegation of Ukrainian delegation and Istanbul under the supervision of of erdogan and
00:20:35
turkey naphtali Bennett also had a similar process in both cases the West rejected a peace deal allegedly we don't
00:20:44
this is Putin we're talking about right hold on a second let me come back to the
00:20:48
evidence for it in a second but yeah what the deal would have provided is that the Russians would move back to
00:20:53
pre-war lines if the ukrainians would agree not to become a member of NATO however the ukrainians could still
00:21:01
receive specified security guarantees from the West that was the deal now well we have now multiple data points you've
00:21:10
got naftali Bennett saying that he thought a deal was along these lines but it was rejected by the West you also
00:21:16
have now Putin showing the very document which was signed by the Ukrainian delegation so this was the definition of
00:21:23
the document right nobody else has this document it hasn't been released yet I hope the Russian government releases it
00:21:28
for the purpose of History so we can inspect it but nobody contested this document is real remember if he's just
00:21:34
making this up you would think that erdogan would basically come forward and say no this is fake there's too many
00:21:39
people who are in that room who'd be able to say this document is fake no one has done that so I think there's every
00:21:44
reason to believe this document is real now it is not a final agreement it appears to be a preliminary agreement or
00:21:49
an outline but the outline is that Russia is saying we will move back to pre-war lines if you agree not become
00:21:56
part of NATO and that deal was rejected when Boris Johnson influenta Kiev and basically told the ukrainians we do not
00:22:03
want to make a deal with Putin we want to pressure Putin and the source for that is not the Russians the source for
00:22:10
that is a Ukrainian publication called Ukrainian Pravda up and they ran an article in May of 2022 that I can put on
00:22:20
the screen and it is the source for saying that Boris Johnson came in and told zielinski we do not want to make a
00:22:27
peace deal we the West are not ready to make a deal with Putin we want you to fight Putin or pressure Putin and if you
00:22:34
do we will give you Advanced weapon systems and that is when the deal fell apart if you look at the timing of it
00:22:39
yes it is this has been lightly sourced here so let's no no no but you have to consider
00:22:45
the source here this is a pro-ukrainian publication writing in May of 2022. now the tone of the article and what they
00:22:53
basically say in this article is that zielinski accepted Boris Johnson's offer in other words he took the Gamble and at
00:23:00
this point in time you've got to remember this is two months after the war started it looked like the
00:23:04
ukrainians were doing well so up was essentially praising zelinski in this article for taking the West up on this
00:23:11
deal to pressure Putin rather than make peace now a year later it looks like this gamble was a disaster yeah and so
00:23:19
that is the real conclusion here a deal was available but the West chose not to take it by the way Fiona Hill who is a
00:23:27
Russia Hawk and you could almost put her I'd say neocon adjacent has basically said that this type of deal was
00:23:35
available the West did not want this deal I think Jason may be to give you an answer my thought is that this week was
00:23:42
a very bad week for establishment politics and institutions because on the one hand if you take the
00:23:49
Russia incident and the Ukraine war what you saw was that there were ample numbers of off-ramps that we chose
00:23:57
frankly to not take so that we could engage our enemy in some long drawn-out war on the hopes that it just depletes
00:24:04
their resources that's kind of rolling the dice I think in a very dangerous way I think this week we
00:24:13
also saw some published stuff on kovid and the covet vaccine which also debunked
00:24:19
a lot of widely held truths and it turned out that folks that may have been conspiracy theorists quote unquote were
00:24:25
right there as well so I think it's just an uncomfortable set of facts that again just reinforce
00:24:32
that if you're not really thinking for yourself you're not going to see the totality of what's actually going on I
00:24:36
think with respect to Russia Ukraine everybody has moved on and so sadly the only people that are
00:24:45
left over are the people that have to fight the war who are so separated from their families there's the people that
00:24:52
are dying there was an article I think today they recruit prisoners right so obviously some of the prisoners of
00:24:57
Russia uses are still pretty crazy that person went on some Rampage inside of a train
00:25:03
killed a couple people stabbed some other people there was just pictures of blood everywhere I mean this is just a
00:25:08
horrible situation and it's still not clear to me why we didn't take the offering if in fact
00:25:16
it's real so I just want to keep putting that disclaimer out there because Putin
00:25:20
flashing her back and it doesn't make all this true uh it doesn't mean it's not true
00:25:24
well Jason I would say I am just being clear here that none of this is confirmed data points do you need I
00:25:33
would say what are you talking about enough tolly Bennett confirmed it what incentives the Israeli former Israeli
00:25:38
leader have to lie about this here's what I would say Jason I think that something like that is so profoundly
00:25:45
important that if it were not true I think it would have been very important for the powers that be to discredited
00:25:53
almost immediately so that they didn't have to look like they were warmongering unnecessarily can I also up
00:26:02
level and connect to this point about the establishment because I think there's been a lot of pushback to even
00:26:10
challenging the status quo even having a conversation about Ukraine or having a conversation about coven and I think if
00:26:19
there's one thing this pod represents the fight going on at Twitter represents is the need
00:26:25
to have this conversation if we look at the wars the U.S has engaged in since September 11th it's estimated three to
00:26:33
four million people have died in Iraq Pakistan Afghanistan we spent eight trillion dollars
00:26:43
inflation adjusted we spent four trillion in World War II 8 trillion represents 25 percent of our
00:26:52
entire national debt and I've yet to meet a single parent who said to me I care so much about this Ukraine
00:27:01
situation I would be willing to put my children In Harm's Way to fight for the defense of Europe okay so those data
00:27:09
points tell me at a very minimum we need more of this discussion more of this debate not less the idea that that we
00:27:17
could be tiptoeing closer and closer to some land war in Europe unnecessarily and
00:27:23
I think the bigger issue is and you can't trust what you're being told and I think that that's what's very problem
00:27:29
that is a bigger picture and just so we're clear here I'm not saying I'm on either side of this I'm just pointing
00:27:35
out that this is all still very thinly sourced no it's not until the West confirms any of this and they expect the
00:27:41
West to do you expect the state department to issue a press release saying yup we [ __ ] up it's on me my
00:27:47
theories has been I and I've been very clear on this podcast my theory has been since
00:27:53
the beginning they want to deplete Russia and they want to deplete their army capabilities and have regime change
00:28:01
in Putin I'm not saying I'm for that just for the people Putin that was the crude language what
00:28:09
they that is what they plan on doing yes I think that's what they're doing and I
00:28:12
think Floyd Austin our secretary of defense said that our purpose was to weaken Russia so to knock it out
00:28:18
yes but I think they want regime change yes that's what Boris Johnson went to Kevin said we want to pressure Putin not
00:28:23
make a deal with him so they courted this war they they prefer that's been my Fury they prefer to fight a problem of
00:28:30
choice that was not my position I actually agree with you if you're saying that that was our government's
00:28:52
objective which was to weaken Putin I agree with you they've chose to fight an optional proxy war of choice that was
00:29:00
easily avoidable if they just taking NATO expansion off the table because they thought it would weaken Putin but
00:29:04
here's the rub on this it has not weakened Putin and is weak in the United States and our allies any way you want
00:29:12
to look at this thing look at just the weapons and Munitions so we are out of 155 millimeter artillery shells we
00:29:20
cannot produce enough this is the crazy thing we spent 800 billion a year plus on the Pentagon in our National Defense
00:29:27
we're out of ammo I mean we must be getting so royally ripped off by the military industrial complex okay we
00:29:33
cannot produce ammo fast enough that's why Ukraine's losing this war the balance of artillery favors Russia
00:29:39
Russia is basically using about 20 000 shells a day the ukrainians are using somewhere between three and six thousand
00:29:46
we are out of ammo we cannot produce enough and this um actually dovetails nicely with another story this week
00:29:53
there is a journalist named Matt Iglesias is that is how you pronounce his name exactly yeah Iglesias and he
00:30:01
said I mean he literally said the quiet part out loud and I'll just quote because he was criticizing
00:30:10
you and chamoth uh for hosting RFK we'll get to that in a second but he basically said this is actually a
00:30:16
really good idea for us basically NATO Equipment Plus Ukrainian lives are being traded for Russian equipment and Russian
00:30:22
lives which leaves NATO coming out ahead that's doubly true because NATO is much
00:30:26
richer than Russia so we win a long-term game of everyone explode their weapons as fast as they can make them again
00:30:33
though what makes that really true is NATO material is killing Russian soldiers while Russian material is
00:30:39
killing Ukrainian soldiers that's a deal in our favor I mean that is a cynical summary of that yeah he wrote that last
00:30:46
year in defense of the war basically like all the neocons you serve an establishment approved intellectual they
00:30:53
think he's smart I think he's really foolish he basically wants to fight the last Ukrainian here for the sole purpose
00:30:58
of blowing up Russia's stockpiles the reason this is so dumb is Russia can always make more those lives aren't
00:31:03
coming back but they can always produce more artillery more weapons and in fact the Russian war machine is now ramping
00:31:10
up to full production okay they are ramping up the number of people in their army I think it's estimated that by the
00:31:16
end of the year they're gonna have 750 000 men under arms they've ramped up artillery shells production they're at
00:31:22
something like one and a half million at the beginning of the war we were only producing 14 000 artillery shells a
00:31:28
month mostly for training purposes in the United States we've since ramped that up to 20 000 but that's still
00:31:33
massively Trails what the Russians can do and they're trying to hold on they're trying to ramp it up to 90 000 a month
00:31:38
but that's going to take till 2028 because you know it takes time to build you got to build up new factories new
00:31:44
production lines you got to issue contracts to suppliers or vendors it takes time to do this
00:31:50
ramped up their War Machine and then the other thing that's happened is that Russia and China have entered a de facto
00:31:58
Alliance and including Iran so you now have the cementing of this giant Alliance in Asia between China Russia
00:32:08
and Iran they're sharing equipment now together Iran is producing drones for Russia Russia is now going to be giving
00:32:16
advanced fighter jets to Iran so this idea that this war has made the West Stronger is depleting the West over an
00:32:23
objective we didn't need to fight the war was easily avoidable and we have now created I think the most fearsome
00:32:29
opponent that America has ever faced we have never faced a adversary with a combined manufacturing capacity and raw
00:32:39
materials of China Russia and Iran if we were to get in a war a new world war against this sort of new axis we could
00:32:46
lose they actually have more manufacturing capacity to produce weapons of war and Munitions and ammo
00:32:53
then the United States does China has been clear that they're not going to provide weapons to Russia
00:32:58
and so I'm not sure that that Alliance is exactly accurate they've given us no such Assurance all they've said is they
00:33:06
haven't done it yet it's a theoretical thing that you're talking about here that could be very serious I think your
00:33:10
point and this is to Brad's point we should be having a very thoughtful discussion here because if China did
00:33:15
pick Russia which they haven't and they went to war it would be warwicks well we should talk about the China
00:33:23
relationship actually yeah okay Lincoln just went to China and this was the first trip
00:33:29
for an American Secretary of State since 2018 obviously things have been strained
00:33:35
with the Spy balloon and the visits to Taiwan Lincoln gave some basic goals for this
00:33:43
engagement with China the fentanyl problem some detained Americans and protecting
00:33:50
U.S citizens working in China those were kind of the easy check boxes but they wanted to create also an open
00:33:59
line of communication between our militaries which China wasn't super stoked on or wouldn't agree to Tony did
00:34:07
a great job yeah okay I think what's really disappointing is that while Tony's over there doing this hard work
00:34:13
which must be tough to do because it must have been a little bit like dancing on eggshells a little bit right
00:34:19
he had to be it's intense yeah he had to be very thoughtful very measured but as far as I could tell he did a
00:34:26
fabulous job now full disclosure he's a friend of mine so maybe I'm biased but then over here Biden at some mid-level
00:34:33
fundraiser in California is calling XI a dictator how hard must it be for you to try to do
00:34:39
your job when your boss is just like completely undisciplined like here and here's the problem with that is that
00:34:46
if the United States actually thought that g was a dictator do you think that a mid-level fundraiser that we were all
00:34:52
invited to in Northern California that none of us said yes to is the place to announce a foreign policy shift like
00:34:58
that absolutely not so it just means that again there's just more evidence about Biden being very undisciplined now
00:35:05
again that could be an age issue it could be a mental acuity issue we don't know because we're not given a chance to
00:35:12
really prosecute that problem meanwhile Tony's there trying to do the best job he can and the Sands shift underneath
00:35:18
him thank God he was able to get the trip done before this thing happened is what I think but that Gap was a very big
00:35:24
gap and a very big problem I think because whatever Goodwill he built up was practically flushed on the toilet if
00:35:31
you saw the reaction from the Chinese which was to be deeply offended when he went to see NBS and they had to
00:35:41
negotiate a fist bump versus a handshake like what is all of this either unplanned or undisciplined theater
00:35:48
why are we engaging in any of this stuff it doesn't make any sense Joe Biden's always been known for being a liability
00:35:55
in terms of these statements when he worked for Obama he was the VP he also said things you know he shot from the
00:36:02
hip a lot you should not be calling him a dictator when you're trying to do this
00:36:05
critical work it's a stupid move I think everybody can agree you were gonna say something Brad yeah I
00:36:10
was just going to say you know kind of Market reaction going in so the K web the Chinese index was up about 20
00:36:17
heading into these series of meetings now notably blinken was not scheduled to have a meeting was she
00:36:26
and so what happened is on day one there's a meeting with the foreign minister right and it seems that there was some
00:36:33
positive trend lines coming out of these first two meetings with the top Diplomat
00:36:37
with foreign minister which led to the meeting and notably in the meeting he did say the United States has not
00:36:43
changed his policy on Taiwan we don't support Taiwanese Independence now the market reaction post visit was
00:36:50
down 10 percent and I think this is owing to what shamas said that people felt like maybe we took a step
00:36:57
forward here that we at least had a meeting but then it was a another step back and so I think where we sit at the
00:37:05
moment is they're probably going to be some follow-on meetings coming out of this this was not you know a a path back
00:37:12
to where we were but I think it was a stabilizing moment and you know again we were just at the
00:37:18
East Meets West Conference where there are a lot of Chinese CEOs and Founders who were there and I think the idea
00:37:25
there was like things are stable like not getting worse and by the way six months ago there was a real concern that
00:37:31
things were deteriorating quickly so I think it's you know you can see something constructive coming out of
00:37:36
this not getting worse was how I felt coming out of it and then Biden then makes it worse is it really it is a I
00:37:43
agree it's just a stupid Gaff let me tell you about some of the reporting from the the Chinese side so after these
00:37:49
diplomatic events and and you're right blinken met with Wang Yi for seven hours then he got an audience with Xi Jinping
00:37:56
they do these readouts where each side basically produces a public summary of the meeting in the Chinese readout they
00:38:03
said that U.S Chinese relationships are at the lowest point they've ever been I mean since I guess diplomatic
00:38:11
relations were kind of re-established under Nixon so that from the Chinese standpoint they believe that
00:38:16
relationships aren't the worst they've ever been moreover the U.S sought to put Ukraine on the
00:38:25
agenda the Chinese response to that was we are not interested in discussing our relationship with Russia that is none of
00:38:31
your business so this idea there's been this neocon fantasy that somehow China would help us
00:38:38
in this war between Russia and Ukraine and I've said all along that the last thing China wants is for neoconso
00:38:45
achieve their objectives with respect to Russia because then China alone will be
00:38:50
in the gun sites of U.S Hawks so China will do what it has to do to support and even prop up Russia if they have to
00:38:58
remember China and and Russia and specifically she and Putin they are the two leaders who've met with each other
00:39:07
more often than any other leader and they've called each other their best friends or most I think the language
00:39:12
they used was most Muslims well most bosom friends was what they called it okay that's a little weird buddies yeah
00:39:19
but yeah awesome bought a great TV show good point yeah exactly just to give people exactly what happened
00:39:24
Biden when he was at this campaign fundraiser in NorCal that uh again yeah we were probably invited to people on
00:39:30
the show he was talking about the military Chinese spy balloon and he said she got
00:39:36
very upset quote that this was a great embarrassment for dictators when they don't know what happened and he
00:39:43
continued to say that she didn't know the balloon had been over the continental U.S and was off course near
00:39:48
Alaska and this is the kind of thing where he's basically saying she is stupid or you know whatever or there's
00:39:54
some level of incompetence over there it's exactly the wrong message you want to send clung of a dictator and calling
00:39:59
him stupid and saying he was embarrassed like why would you provoke that to raise
00:40:03
money or to be a tough guy it makes no sense I mean it sounds like Trump's version of foreign they thought the
00:40:09
whole balloon thing was a travesty I mean I don't know what the truth of it is but they feel like it was just this
00:40:16
continuous uh drumming up of outrage on the American side against China and they
00:40:22
wanted to put that behind us in terms of the relationship I heard Lincoln interviewed about this jamath I agree
00:40:28
with you I have no complaint with blinken in terms of how he handled this meeting
00:40:36
but but not Beijing but they wanted to put this balloon business behind them my guess I've
00:40:43
always said that it never made sense to me that the Chinese would use such a ham-fisted way of conducting Espionage
00:40:50
to fly a deliberately fly a balloon over the years it never made sense to me yeah
00:40:56
of course and it became this cost celeb in the U.S and I think the Chinese at a minimum wanted to put it behind us and
00:41:04
then Biden reopened the issue like the submarine tragedy the balloon is like made for network television because it's
00:41:10
a live event where you can put live cameras up and you can cover it 24 7. it's just like Trump
00:41:18
it's for the media it's catnip for them we have to be very careful now I think In our relation with China because again
00:41:24
you now have this Asiatic alliance between China Russia and and Iran it is the most capable let's say adversary
00:41:32
United States has ever faced remember that when we Face the Soviet Union their economy was never bigger than one-third
00:41:37
the US economy the Soviet Bloc versus the Western Bloc the Chinese economy on a purchasing power parity basis is
00:41:43
roughly the same size as the U.S and they've got more manufacturing capacities if you think about the type
00:41:49
of manufacturing capacity United States had during World War II that now belongs
00:41:54
to China not the us we have hollowed out I just don't understand manufacturing why are foreign policy Brad I'll bring
00:42:00
you into discussion why our foreign policy isn't being driven by some of the things that we could do together to
00:42:07
collaborate on like we have global warming we have you know issues on this planet that we could collaborate on and
00:42:13
it seems like we're spending no time on those issues and saber annoying Cuba another example why can't we set a goal
00:42:21
for the United States to normalize relations with Cuba and get them on our site since they are the equivalent of
00:42:26
let's say Ukraine David to America you've you've brought up that comparison why don't we make peace with Cuba why
00:42:33
can't we have a peace-based foreign policy where we're trying to build Bridges God Cuba and United States could
00:42:39
do amazing things together and we should be trying to win that relationship instead of living 50 years in the past
00:42:46
over it I don't I'm not sure there was legitimate outrage over the past week because we discovered that China was
00:42:52
planning on they already have an intelligence Outpost listening Outpost but also they're thinking about doing
00:42:59
training of troops in Cuba and that would be a violation Monroe Doctrine and we should basically get our backs up
00:43:07
over that the Monroe Doctrine states that no dis and great power can bring troops weapons or bases into the Western
00:43:14
Hemisphere the United States spent over 100 years basically enforcing the Monroe Doctrine
00:43:20
it would greatly diminish U.S security if we allowed any foreign great power to have troops in the Western Hemisphere so
00:43:27
we deserve to have our horns out over that the problem is that we have our horns out over everything and so we're
00:43:33
not really taken seriously we've cried wolf so many times I don't think we're really taken seriously by the Chinese on
00:43:38
this and this should be a teaching moment to the foreign policy establishment because this is Russia's
00:43:43
objection Russia's objection is to having American troops weapons and bases directly on
00:43:49
their border this is our objection to what China is seeking to do in Cuba okay Brad you want to add something to that
00:43:55
or can we move to Chicago but just real quickly I would say yeah there's a real appetite in the business community
00:44:01
to be engaged this idea that we're going to decouple the world never have to deal
00:44:05
with these folks right is just a farce bite dance bought a billion dollars worth of Nvidia chips announced this
00:44:12
week right like like the world is entangled and I think we would be better off having our political and Business
00:44:19
Leaders in more sync over how to achieve this long-term safety and prosperity as
00:44:27
opposed to what feels like a disjointed foreign policy relative to the global reality around Ai and and what's
00:44:35
happening on the business front I agree well said yeah and I mean it's just so obvious why can't we be
00:44:42
collaborating on stuff and we see uh when you and I made our trip to the UAE and then we see the Saudis you know
00:44:47
bringing movies back we have certain regions we're doing a pretty good job of engaging with engagement
00:44:52
you know reasonable engagement is a good idea it's because and I think RFK has said this
00:44:59
we have created a very dangerous revolving door between our most critical institutions
00:45:06
and the largest industrial companies in the United States and that revolving door creates all kinds of conflicts of
00:45:13
interest and those things get sorted out via revenue and dollars and profits incentives and so those incentives will
00:45:22
drive us if it's the military-industrial complex to go to war and you're seeing that it'll complicate
00:45:28
our foreign policy so this is why I've always said the most important thing that we're doing
00:45:33
is something that the military-industrial complex cannot stop which is our energy Independence and
00:45:39
when you have energy Independence and abundant Costless energy I do think that the biggest thing you get is this peace
00:45:45
dividend you stop fighting these wars you become much more rational abroad and you're like okay I don't need to fight
00:45:49
with all these people because you know things are so great within our borders you're so right because we actually have
00:45:55
stopped those Wars and now we've created two other ones Russia or Ukraine we can't help Taiwan China what's that we
00:46:02
can't help ourselves and we'll use the scarcity of Commodities as a boogeyman to basically incentivize us to go in
00:46:10
these foreign Misadventures and it really has to stop by the way just two quick points on that on Taiwan there's
00:46:16
an election next year and it looks like right now that the pro-china party might
00:46:21
actually take power right now the party that's in power is more of a pro-western
00:46:25
party and the reason I think is that the Taiwanese are looking at what's going on
00:46:30
in Ukraine and they're looking at the corpse of the Ukrainian youth pile up and they're thinking maybe it's not such
00:46:37
a great idea to be an American proxy state or in the words of Henry Kissinger he once quipped that it's dangerous to
00:46:45
be an American enemy but it's absolutely fatal to be an American friend I think that this war may be backfiring in terms
00:46:51
of the incentives is creating around Taiwan remember Biden said that this war would basically help protect Taiwan by
00:46:58
deterring China it might actually deter Taiwan from opposing China so we'll have
00:47:03
to see how that plays out all an able-bodied person in Taiwan a voting age needs to do
00:47:08
is read the newspaper and understand it in the last two and a half years we've essentially started a multi-trillion
00:47:14
dollar program to de-lever ourselves from all the critical resources that China and Taiwan gives us and so if
00:47:19
you're a Taiwanese citizen the writing is unfortunately on the wall which is that we are giving ourselves the
00:47:24
optionality to not have to do anything so to your point David if you're a rational thinking Taiwanese person
00:47:30
unfortunately you're forced to be in a position where you may have to hedge your bets
00:47:34
and if the United States can basically have a chip Supply that comes from Europe and Mexico now all of a sudden
00:47:42
the criticality of tsmc goes away to win I publish his tweet yesterday about Buffett and his trades
00:47:51
in Japan right he bought these five trading companies and it's just a really novel carry trade that I've really
00:47:56
fallen in love with just understanding it but the code out to that is that when he did this and going long Japan what he
00:48:03
actually also did was he delivered himself from China he had a long position in tsmc and he said I'm out and
00:48:09
when they asked him why he sold tsmc he said this is a very complicated thing and he basically said that it's not a
00:48:17
bet that's worth making and I think underneath that if I had to guess what he's trying to say about
00:48:23
Taiwan indirectly through his sale of tsmc is the odds are that we are not going to
00:48:29
get into a land War over there which means that that asset and its Equity value is in danger and I don't want to
00:48:37
own it and I think that that's a very clinical summation of his rational action so to your point well here's our
00:48:45
blinking people speak with their dogs I think it's very important you know the one China policy says Taiwan is part of
00:48:49
China it's not an independent country but we've had a very ambiguous intolerance for this ambiguity of Taiwan
00:48:55
acting as its own Nation while saying we support the one China policy and that ambiguity
00:49:02
has served us very well in the China relationship here's a blanket set at the press conference quote we do not support
00:49:08
Taiwan Independence we remain opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo
00:49:12
by either side the status quo he's referring to here Brad is that they get to be independent in Taiwan but we don't
00:49:19
say they're independent they are obviously acting in an independent manner but it is not our business to
00:49:25
tell the Taiwanese people that they're independent or not it's their decision to determine if they're independent or
00:49:32
not any any thoughts on the the trade by Buffett and press conference and this ambiguity
00:49:41
I think we want to maintain the ambiguity I think we're basically saying to China don't change the status quo at
00:49:49
least for now right while we rebuild these chip Fabs in Arizona and other parts of the world
00:49:56
I think most of the wealthy families I've talked to from Taiwan believe that five or six years from now the U.S will
00:50:04
no longer be in the position where they will need Taiwan and Taipei as much as they do today and they're how many years
00:50:11
do you think it will take to be independent say it one more time and explain it well it's not about being
00:50:15
independent it's how much longer will Taiwan have what they believe to be de facto protection from the United States
00:50:24
and I was told by one very influential Taiwanese family that they believe won the fifth chip Fab comes online in
00:50:33
Arizona which I think is scheduled for 25 or 26. they intended to have most of their family members out of Taiwan at
00:50:41
that period in time now I think most Taiwanese don't Envision this being you know a violent invasion of Taiwan it's
00:50:49
more of a take under in the same way that Hong Kong was and so I don't see an American president
00:50:56
frankly going to war nor would I want them to go to war over Taiwan but I think it's in all of our interests to
00:51:03
maintain that status quo which is why taunting the Chinese over the course of the past few years over Taiwan has
00:51:10
seemed like uh a policy that's not fit with our goals right well if you look at skin in the
00:51:17
game the fact that the chips act went through so quickly the fact that Warren Buffett as you pointed out schmoth made
00:51:22
his bet and this family that has obviously you know uh skinned in the game quite literally are making these
00:51:28
decisions I think we know where this is headed you can just follow the bets and if you look at the bets in five years
00:51:34
follow the dollars I mean and also where people put themselves uh geographically
00:51:39
everybody left Hong Kong when the turnover happened or before it they went to Singapore they went to UAE they voted
00:51:45
with their feet and their dollars and that's obviously what's going to happen here this is a good pivot because this
00:51:52
criticism of the Ukraine policy by Matt that sax pointed out came because there is a belief on his part and others
00:52:02
that the Pod here all in is putting its unilateral support behind RFK that is not true there are two people on the pod
00:52:12
who hosted a fundraiser last week and here is what Matt incorrectly said because
00:52:20
I have not put my support behind RFK I think he's very interesting and I'm glad he's in the race and neither has
00:52:26
Friedberg but shmoff and sax did host one and I'll hand it over to them but here is what Matt said in his sub stack
00:52:33
and even though it's not the subject of this post I do want to say that I think it's really Sleazy and gross for the
00:52:41
host of the oil and podcast to be engaging in this Kennedy boosterism as a bank shot way of harming Joe Biden's
00:52:48
re-election prospects and I would say in the recent conversions around Russia policy Kennedy represents precisely the
00:52:54
strand of progressive thought that right-of-center business people have highly have rightly spent the
00:52:59
better part of the century bemoaning his is an anti-progress anti-technology ultimately anti-human twirl view that
00:53:06
stands against biomedical progress against Energy progress and Against Humanity wants to blow up as many
00:53:11
ukrainians as possible yeah exactly anti-human listen I don't even think we should be giving him this
00:53:18
much time well no but I think it is important because people now have connected this pod with the rise of RFK
00:53:24
this was the first major Iglesias is accusing us somehow of do of of supporting RFK not because of issues
00:53:32
but somehow because it's a bank shot for Donald Trump which is ridiculous none of
00:53:37
us support Donald Trump he's not even my preferred candidate in the Republican Lane well what he said was a bank shot
00:53:42
against Biden just to be clear you're against I prefer RFK to Biden it's that simple what's what's wrong
00:53:51
with that he's not even making any arguments here look we've explained in a lot of detail and I explained in my
00:53:56
response all the issues where I support RFK supports free speech over censorship he supports
00:54:03
civil liberties over the surveillance State he supports peace instead of War he supports sealing the southern border
00:54:08
virtually alone among Democrats and talking sense on that issue and I believe that he's completely correctly
00:54:15
diagnosed what we're doing in Ukraine so on the YouTube on some issues right you disagree with
00:54:21
him on nuclear and you may disagree with him in his anti-vaxx stance if he is in
00:54:26
fact anti-vaxxed can I just hold on let's sex finish those I think he was right about covet lockdowns and I think
00:54:30
he was right about right covet the so-called covet shot that wasn't even a vaccine that that should not have been
00:54:36
required but what about those two issues you obviously disagree with him on some
00:54:39
things do you disagree with him on his anti-vax stuff and his nuclear stuff I don't know enough about those issues
00:54:46
to have like a Firm Stance what I would say is that every candidate represents a
00:54:51
bundle of issues and you support the ones who are aligned with you on the issues that are most important to you on
00:55:00
the issues that are most important to me which are these questions the great questions of War and Peace
00:55:06
and the questions of free speech and censorship and even I would say the question of the economy and who do we
00:55:12
prioritize because he wants to prioritize the middle class on those big questions I feel like I'm aligned with
00:55:19
RFK perfect so that's why I support him let me go to church by the way do you think Jack Dorsey is is supporting RFK
00:55:26
as a bank shot something or other no he's supporting it because he agrees with RFK on these questions of War and
00:55:32
Peace okay and Free Speech correct I'm just letting everybody be very clear about their position since this is
00:55:38
becoming the support of RFK by this podcast or two of the four people in the podcast is now becoming kind of national
00:55:44
news Iglesias is even making any arguments here he's just applying derogatory labels to us what this is
00:55:51
this is a disciplinary tactic or a shaming tactic yes by these sort of enforcers for the establishment right
00:55:59
you want to prevent independent thinkers from stepping out a lot I agree that's what this is about it
00:56:05
looks like this Outsider went to the dolphin School in Harvard University so there you have it yeah you got a two
00:56:10
million dollar education doesn't know what a basis point is he's the guy with the basis points right
00:56:16
he graduated Harvard oh good luck with your sub statue oh my God you are pro-nuclear you've been very clear about
00:56:25
that although you're a pro Renewables mostly uh you've been clear about that on this podcast and many conversations
00:56:30
I've had with you you are also pro-vaccine but you're anti what happened with the lockdown so maybe you
00:56:36
could expand upon your support of RFK why you held a fundraiser firm and what things you agree with them on and maybe
00:56:42
what things you don't necessarily agree with them on well first I actually did what I think a lot of people
00:56:50
haven't done which is just listen to him just stop talking zip the old yapper and
00:56:59
there is an enormous amount of long-form content where you can really understand
00:57:05
where he stands on some of these topics he's right about the war on Ukraine we shouldn't be in
00:57:13
he's right about Free Speech which is we should have it he's right that the covet vaccine
00:57:24
was not a vaccine and really what it's done is actually discredit the word vaccine unfortunately
00:57:32
in a lot of people's minds he actually is a person that is pro-vaccine for all these other vaccines
00:57:39
he himself has vaccinated his children are vaccinated you would all know this stuff if you just took two minutes to
00:57:45
just listen to it he is against the covet vaccine and what I would say is I'm very sympathetic to that I'm very
00:57:53
sympathetic to the job the FDA had to do and I think they generally did do a great job
00:57:59
but we Ram something through and we allowed it to be labeled a word that misappropriates what it is
00:58:08
it's not a vaccine and the problem with that is that it now makes people mistrust the measle mumps and rubella
00:58:15
vaccine that's crazy you shouldn't mistrust the MMR vaccine or DTaP but because those things are lumped in with
00:58:22
the same thing as a coveted vaccine that is at best 30 or 40 percent efficacious
00:58:26
we have these problems he calls that out pretty honestly so I like the fact that
00:58:33
he actually speaks in nuance I like the fact that when I listen to him I find that the talking head think
00:58:42
police are generally lying it confirms what I believe about them because he just says things in a very
00:58:50
plain spoken intelligent way and I think that there are a lot of folks who don't want to think who want
00:58:57
to be given the simple answer who want to just reject what he stands for and just take the
00:59:04
establishment view in the hopes that they'll get I don't know maybe accepted by The Establishment The Establishment
00:59:10
just wants to curate power and I just think that people should be thinking for themselves if you listen to
00:59:16
the Rogan podcast if you listen to the Jordan Peterson podcast there are millions and millions and
00:59:23
millions of links and Page views and discussions and thoughts and there's probably thousands of minutes of RFK
00:59:29
explaining what he thinks on basically any topic you can imagine you can get to your own conclusion and now I think what
00:59:35
I think you'll find and this is true for me is there's 10 of stuff you are just vehemently supportive of
00:59:45
seventy percent of stuff that's like quite reasonable and fair and then there's the rest which is a
00:59:52
spectrum of things I disagree with but then you're left with a blended expected value where you're like man this guy is
00:59:58
really better than all the other Alternatives Brad I'll let you go and then I'll give my position what I find
01:00:04
most Insidious about the opposition to this discussion is people are upset that you're not swearing an
01:00:13
allegiance to a dogmatism right the truth of the matter is this group has hosted dinners for rokana
01:00:21
for Senator manchin we've hosted dinners for DeSantis right had I been here I would have put my name
01:00:29
on the dinner for Kennedy because I want to gather information I'm an analyst I want to think for myself
01:00:37
how can we spend trillions and put ourselves into potentially Harm's Way without having a real conversation in
01:00:46
Congress and on these pods about the risk of War why can't we have an authentic post-mortem about the efficacy of the
01:00:56
covet vaccine without being shamed the Revolution going on in this country which is fantastic from my perspective
01:01:02
is that there is no longer a monopolistic control over the discussion and that's why this
01:01:10
podcast and this friendship and the conversation we all had here is resonating with people because they also
01:01:17
want to hear all the different sides because most people are capable are way smarter than the elites on the coast
01:01:24
think you know I'm from Indiana lots of smart folks who think for themselves in Indiana but they're told by Coastal
01:01:31
Elites what to think and they reject this and that's what you're seeing in this discussion and so many of these
01:01:37
others it's not about that it's not about vaccines it's not about a war it's about their control over how you
01:01:44
think and them wanting to force you to swear to an Orthodoxy I think that's really well said yeah yeah that is well
01:01:51
said but the way they try to control what you think is by labeling candidates so as to exclude them or make them sound
01:01:59
crazy so jaycal I mean you kind of introduced RFK as an anti-vaxxer I don't think that is the correct way to
01:02:07
describe its position or the singular way that he should be labeled no I don't I don't believe that I said here are the
01:02:13
things he believes that we agree with and then I gave the things that the media is saying you know so I was trying
01:02:19
to present the totality of it and I said he is obviously in favor of the middle class and all this stuff so
01:02:27
so I am in support of vibrant long-form debate like we have here and I'm in support of anybody who takes
01:02:35
on the establishment because there are crazy incentives as we talk about here incentives matter and we are long
01:02:41
overdue for a discussion on vaccines but it's very important that everybody understand here that everybody on this
01:02:47
podcast took the coveted vaccine and everybody here our kids have been just such a vaccine it's not a vaccine
01:02:53
exactly so they took the projected experimental mRNA treatment because we got Hoodwinked by the media into
01:03:00
thinking it would prevent us and from Ever Getting covet which it did not do I think two months later I got that
01:03:06
experience vaccines are good and the covid thing was not very good and it reduced death in older people and
01:03:15
probably was the only group of people and we'll we'll know when we do a postmortem
01:03:19
but do not worry about this mRNA like flowing through our bodies who knows it might be a time bomb well and then for
01:03:30
percussions the the hypocrisy of the media I think is very important to look at here because the media is going to be
01:03:37
attacking this podcast over and over again not that it matters but when we moved into the top 100 top 50 top 10
01:03:43
that's when the knives came out and I I would like to remind the media of the long history of
01:03:50
investigative journalism and debates what was once a conspiracy theory often goes on to win a Pulitzer Prize and you
01:03:59
know the the hypocrisy here is crazy because if you look at some of the greatest stories an investigative
01:04:04
journalist pieces they started with these debates rumors Etc Abu ghab that was the New Yorker
01:04:12
supporting that was signed versus reporting and he came right he can't get the time of day for
01:04:18
his report on who really destroyed Nordstrom the Catholic Church sex scandal the Boston Globe the mainstream
01:04:25
media does not perform the function that you're describing anymore they act as The Bodyguard for the elite for the
01:04:30
establishment they actually have even of late antonographers for the people in power not exactly true they have
01:04:37
actually done incredible reporting but there is a group of them which is Towing the party line because you have the New
01:04:43
York Times and their expose on the Taxi commission that won a Pulitzer in 2020. I know you don't follow pulitzers or
01:04:52
investigative journalism in 2020 Brian Rosenthal at the New York Times did a massive expose on the predatory uh New
01:04:58
York City Taxi industry and then at the same time there's a few other issues that might be
01:05:05
more important to the nation it was an example of protectionism and rent seeking uh the Enron Scandal big tobacco
01:05:12
60 Minutes what about the pretzel Monopoly in the South part of the Bronx what about that hot dog vendor on you
01:05:20
guys are uninformed didn't have all of his licenses up to date I thought there was a hello botulism
01:05:28
is at the same time the New York Times CNN were attacking what Uber was doing the New York Times won a [ __ ]
01:05:37
Pulitzer for their coverage of predatory loans by Rich powerful people in New York City I bet they also did a great
01:05:44
story on the guy selling trinkets outside Penn Station without a license for somebody who's a man of the people
01:05:49
like yourself sex you should actually be more informed okay she should be reporting on for example what the if
01:05:55
they really if the pulitzers work the way they should is where patient zero came from on covid because Michael
01:06:03
Schellenberg just reported this over the last week and it got picked up by the Wall Street Journal that patient zero it
01:06:09
turns out was a researcher at the wu-shan lab who was performing Gana function research yeah shocker another conspiracy
01:06:18
theory proven true and we'll wind up being a Pulitzer he deserves a Pulitzer he does and the crazy thing about this
01:06:25
quote-unquote conspiracy theory it turned out to be true is like it brought together the most odd bedfellows Rand
01:06:32
Paul and Jon Stewart when rank Paul and Jon Stewart can be in a room and agree on basically the totality of a topic we
01:06:41
should all just pay attention because it's not it's not a normal World in which these two guys would otherwise get
01:06:46
along right and both of them nailed it from day one right they have the same name okay now
01:06:53
connect the dots further okay why was the truth suppressed why did it not come out because fauci had funded gain a
01:07:01
function research at the Wuhan lab via Eco Health Alliance so he knew that if at the beginning of this pandemic it
01:07:09
turned out that he had been partially responsible for the creation of this virus that had now turned into a
01:07:16
pandemic around the world his career would have been over and it's worse sacks it's even worse than that 46 of
01:07:24
the advertising on TV news comes from farm and we did not always allow Pharma spending and this is may not be one to
01:07:32
one it may not be that a specific person doing a report at CNN or fox or any of the networks is saying oh I'm going to
01:07:40
lose my job if I write something critical of Pharma but they're not doing the investigative pieces on I can tell
01:07:46
you this on the people who have 46 percent of their advertising Revenue unless it really
01:07:52
you know gets to the final Inning on something and right and that is something that we need to question right
01:07:59
the media is funded 46 by Pharma companies and Pharma companies were given a pass and if you criticize any of
01:08:09
the Pharma companies the media is going to come for you and so listen I'm not a tinfoil but you do
01:08:15
have a little bit listen the media is funded by big Pharma and its primary sources are these high-level government
01:08:22
employees who've been there forever who leak them information that is why the New York Times was carrying water for
01:08:28
fauci and big Pharma this is the marriage of state power and corporate greed that RFK Jr denounces yeah well uh
01:08:38
there you have it folks so and he believes he could be assassinated by the CIA no he didn't say it like that he
01:08:44
didn't say it like that he was asked what what is his strategy on campaigning and all of that stuff and he
01:08:51
said look I'm going to do as much as possible the one thing that I'm going to avoid are like these open-air parades
01:08:59
just because there's just a lot of folks that we can't control crowd control yeah okay reasonable yeah I mean the
01:09:06
conversation on Rogan went something like this Rogan was asking questions about the Kennedy assassinations and RFK
01:09:13
believes like something like 60 of the American public believes that Lee Harvey Oswald did not act alone then Rogan
01:09:20
asked him well do you ever feel afraid running for office and his answer was basically no not really it's not
01:09:27
something that I'm preoccupied with but yeah I'll take precautions does that mean he thinks the CIA is going to
01:09:33
assassinate him no that's not what he said but that is how the media reported it including Fox News that became the
01:09:39
sound bite well the sound bite from this podcast was that he believes his uncle was and his father were that the ca was
01:09:46
involved Nations Jason a lot of people I am not giving my opinion on I'm giving his opinion on it he said it on this
01:09:52
podcast and the CIA won't release all the information to this day even though they've been commanded to do so so you
01:09:58
make your own decision folks according to Bloomberg there is a ton of action for startup shares in secondary markets
01:10:04
if you don't know what a secondary Market is that's when one investor buys shares in a company that's not yet
01:10:09
public directly from another investors on the cap table so if stripe which is not yet public or Reddit
01:10:15
there are shares floating around in those companies either previous employees or previous investors one firm
01:10:20
might see an opportunity there and buy them as this process of bottom me out has occurred pitchbook reported tiger
01:10:27
Global told secondary investors and that's a class of people who like to buy these that they could bid on any
01:10:33
individual private company in its portfolio they tried to sell a bundle of these uh shares about 30 startups at a
01:10:39
time but they couldn't find buyers according to the reports so now they're allowing people to bid on per company on
01:10:45
a per company basis some of these are being marked down a third 50 percent Etc here's the quote from Bloomberg as of
01:10:54
May 31st shares of startups were trading at a median discount of 61 compared to valuations at their latest funding
01:11:00
rounds according to report by Forge Global Holdings a16 according to the report is actively buying shares in
01:11:07
secondary Excel Bain Bessemer Kleiner are also using secretary to grow stakes in their existing Investments doubling
01:11:13
down as it were crossover firms by kotu Tiger grow Global and even Brad's altimeter
01:11:19
are actively searching for deals so Brad your thoughts on this is this sign of a
01:11:24
bottom and why are you doing this you're doing it yeah yeah it is it is true I mean our
01:11:30
job is to look at all these companies understand their value okay you know I'm sitting here looking at a list that I
01:11:34
was given this morning 125 companies secondary you know the Goldman Sachs unprofitable Tech index in the public
01:11:41
markets uh is down 64 as of this one unprofitable Publications they put together a basket they track
01:11:49
unprofitable public companies down 64 P percent off of its peak as of this morning so you just quoted the Bloomberg
01:11:57
article saying yeah these unprofitable tech companies in the private markets are down about 60 61 percent that smells
01:12:03
right to me the repricings have to occur these have to occur right there are 1400 unicorns
01:12:12
at the end of 2022 and a hundred percent of them will likely do a down run and if
01:12:17
you said what is the average that they're going to be down it's over 50 percent you saw the repricings out of
01:12:24
some of the best ones like a canva or a stripe where it was down let's go out 30
01:12:28
40 50 but you know they're going to be companies like in the public markets that are down 80 or 90 percent and
01:12:35
disappear all together so we didn't see the repricings okay and by the way when we say you know that article quotes
01:12:44
Forge that is what the sellers are offering to sell shares for that is not where transactions are
01:12:53
clearing right so why has an altimeter purchased any of this because the prices aren't
01:12:58
low enough to induce me to get off the sidelines to purchase the shares but we're within kind of you know we're
01:13:05
starting to get in the zone where we can underwrite to a margin of safety competitive or better than the public
01:13:12
markets for companies that we think are great companies now out of those 4 1400 unicorns at the end of 22 they're
01:13:20
probably less than five percent of those companies I would even want to own at the right price right so it's a small
01:13:28
subset of companies the price has to get to this clearing point but you know I think over the course of
01:13:34
the next uh 18 months we're going to see an acceleration of market clearing events as these companies need to raise
01:13:41
Capital as their employees want to get liquid on shares and it's it probably see some great
01:13:47
opportunities but most of these things that get put on sale should not be purchased right most of
01:13:54
them even you know the first sale price is never the last sale price the markdown on the black t-shirts will
01:14:00
continue tomato sax any thoughts are you buying in secondary are you looking at this
01:14:05
yeah we'll look at secondary deals it's not primarily what we do but we're open to it but Brad if you were to categorize
01:14:10
the 1400 unicorns into one of three categories what do you think the percentages would be those three
01:14:16
categories being zombie corns like unicorn companies that just don't deserve to exist they don't have a
01:14:23
product Market fit and they're going to go away category two would be viable companies
01:14:28
that are just overpriced and are headed for a Down Round And the number three would be the ones that are actually
01:14:33
headed for an up round yeah I would say 30 to 40 percent are these companies that were valued
01:14:40
over a billion dollars that don't have product Market fit they'll disappear zombie companies that will disappear
01:14:46
right and listen walking down just to be fair let's explain most of these companies right have less than 200
01:14:54
million a preference preferred shares that Venture capitalists invest into the company and many of those companies in
01:15:02
that 30 40 percent there's a team there's some asset of value they may be able to you know sell the talent of the
01:15:09
team and recoup David let's call it 30 40 of the pref stack right in that transaction we're starting to see some
01:15:17
of those occur then I think the Lion's Share of the companies that are left let's call it
01:15:23
you know another 40 these are companies that should never have been marked at these prices right but they do have a
01:15:31
business and they're going to be marked down you know 50 to 80 percent but all of those like none of those have
01:15:38
been able to grow through it then there's less than 10 percent of the companies right whose growth has been so
01:15:45
robust through this period that they've actually grown into or within 10 15 of those prior prices
01:15:52
and if you do all of that work it puts us back on trendline right the only thing unusual here is how far off trend
01:16:00
line we had 1400 unicorns right in 2020 we had I think 145 IPOs in the last two years we've had four
01:16:11
okay so there's a huge backlog these companies aren't getting public why because Public Market buyers like
01:16:18
ourselves we're not willing to pay the prices that were in the private market so the first step is to just have these
01:16:23
clearing events and as David you and I heard silver talk over the course of the last couple days I think they you know
01:16:30
said to the founders very clearly you need to sell your businesses or you need to get profitable there is no middle
01:16:36
ground in other news Ford has been issued a conditional 9.2 billion dollar loan from the U.S department of energy
01:16:41
to build out three one two three EV battery factories specific loan is coming through the department of
01:16:48
Energy's lpo that's the loan programs office they've got about 400 billion to lend out
01:16:54
you might remember this from 2010 when they gave solyndra A123 batteries which eventually went
01:17:02
bankrupt and got bought by a Chinese company I believe and Tesla a 465 million dollar loan Tesla paid it back
01:17:08
the other two didn't anticipated back with interest [ __ ] Shaw the director of The Loan program office described The
01:17:15
Lending moves as a way to onshore and reshore Manufacturing the goal of the program is not Innovation but to get
01:17:22
more of the supply chain to be manufactured in the U.S guess some people are criticizing this just
01:17:31
out of the gate with um why should we be giving these loans to companies shouldn't this be the private sector
01:17:37
doing it moth what are your thoughts here is this a good idea a great idea a neutral idea
01:17:43
it's a great idea explain it's us using our balance sheet to make sure that we get to energy
01:17:49
Independence so this is actually a perfect role for government it's shaping incentives so that capitalism
01:17:57
can do its job what this does for forward is for it as a partnership with SK and so SK has a lot of capability in
01:18:06
Korea but they can bring that know-how now domestically onshore to the United States you'll be hiring thousands of
01:18:12
people you'll be building battery factories Ford needs batteries their forecast is they'll be selling two and a
01:18:17
half million electric vehicles by 2026 2027. so whatever Ford does you can expect GM will also do
01:18:25
you can expect all of the other big companies to do so this is all just great and at the end of the day
01:18:32
for people to not over this is 9.8 billion I guess it sounds like a lot but we're probably spending 9.8 billion
01:18:38
dollars a day fighting Wars so this is a day of just taking a pause on all these dumb Wars and actually
01:18:45
becoming energy Reliant carbon neutral fixing the climate it's great jobs energy Independence and
01:18:55
less dependency on autocratic Nations it seems like a good idea yeah everything should be how about instead of thinking
01:19:01
about it in terms of Wars let's think about it in terms of so if if the the dod budget is 800 billion dollars okay
01:19:10
per year what is at 2.6 billion a day 2.7 billion a day okay so we're talking about three days
01:19:20
four days Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday I agree with jamas about the wars but
01:19:30
this is all money we don't have I mean we shouldn't be spending the money on Wars and we shouldn't be spending it I
01:19:35
think on Industrial policy so first of all one of our friends who's an energy investor uh we should peep his name but
01:19:42
was telling me that the energy subsidies that were in the you know misnamed inflation reduction act it is like the
01:19:50
biggest Bonanza of all time he said that the energy sector is going crazy now trying to figure out how to exploit
01:19:58
these incentives and his view is that although I think it was supposed to cost about 350 billion dollars he thought
01:20:05
that it would ultimately cost the government somewhere around a trillion because the way these subsidies work is
01:20:11
that you just qualify for them and then you get the subsidy it's not like the credits run out so if you qualify you
01:20:17
get it so this could end up costing the government way more than than it was originally projected and so the question
01:20:22
is what are you going to get for all this money and in this article on Ford they were talking about these seven
01:20:28
thousand jobs they're being created at a cost of 440 000 per job so it's great that the jobs are being
01:20:36
created but if you look at the efficiency of that that spend per job doesn't really make sense I don't
01:20:43
understand how you get that number you take that the article said it the article said for 440 000. do you take
01:20:50
9.8 billion and divided by seven thousand what do you do I'm just quoting that paragraph for the article so yeah
01:20:56
so the job creation is good but you got to look at the efficiency of the job creation
01:21:00
the other thing is the question I would ask you guys actually is who wants one of these Ford EVs do you want an EV by
01:21:08
Ford um I think there are a lot of people that drive a Ford pickup truck we talked about this before Saturday's
01:21:15
coming yeah very popular there was a an article in the Wall Street Journal a few
01:21:20
months ago which talked about the brand consideration cycle that has been going on and there was a large look we're
01:21:26
friends with Elon but we should acknowledge there's a large number of people that are frankly a little bit
01:21:31
turned off by him and they've been very clear that they want an alternative to Tesla because they don't want to buy
01:21:36
Tesla because they don't necessarily prefer him as a brand ambassador for their car and the reality of life is
01:21:44
that even if you're like maximally incredible unless you find some clever way of creating a monopoly in which case
01:21:50
you can be a douche or evil you're only ever going to capture 30 plus 40 maybe of a market Coke Pepsi is a good example
01:21:58
and so there's always going to be long tail Alternatives and you know I had a chance for example in Vegas to drive a
01:22:05
rivian I was surprised at the Quality or drive in Arabian I was surprised at the
01:22:09
quality of Ravine only because I've been so focused on Tesla my whole life so yeah I
01:22:15
think there are a lot of people that'll buy forwards doesn't well take anything away from what elon's doing but I do
01:22:19
think there are a lot of people that'll buy it my problem with industrial policy
01:22:21
is this you think about that EV Summit that the White House did they didn't even invite Elon and that that was for
01:22:27
political reasons Union reasons yeah partly because of his views on speech but I think mostly because he's not a
01:22:33
union shop right and so that's the real reason why Ford is being doled out this sort of nine point something billion
01:22:41
dollar loan is because they're politically connected with the right people in this current Administration
01:22:47
and that's the problem with industrial policy is that the money gets handed out by government to the politically
01:22:53
connected in this case to the companies that may be producing the best products the fact is Tesla did get one of these
01:22:59
loans in 2010 when it was a very nascent company so you got to give them some credit they took a big risk there let's
01:23:04
think about that for a second okay because I know that example comes up a lot and A123 and solyndra yeah so Elon
01:23:11
was basically a fluke I mean you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happens to be working on this EV
01:23:16
problem and he got that loan if you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio it all looks like solyndra yep
01:23:24
so the question is like what is this portfolio going to look like is there really going to be another Elon in there
01:23:30
because if not there's going to be a lot of cylinders but even if they break even
01:23:34
there's gonna be a lot of subsidies to companies like Ford which are politically connected and I think a
01:23:39
point Freeburg would make if he were here is that at some point you're going to turn off the subsidies because we can't
01:23:45
afford it and then at that point is that factory going to be self-sufficient Brad
01:23:51
you wanna you've heard the two sides of the story here and listen while generally against industrial policy I I
01:23:58
come down on jamas side I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security
01:24:06
risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative which is energy Independence it's not
01:24:13
going to happen just according to the Invisible Hand of the market we see our you know great power
01:24:20
competitors who are using this against us frankly and have robust industrial policies so I'm willing to stipulate
01:24:27
that there will be those inefficiencies in this system but I was lucky lucky enough last night I was having dinner
01:24:33
with the deputy secretary of the treasury Wally adiyama who was out here meeting with Founders including battery
01:24:39
Founders in Silicon Valley on this very subject and I know some of the companies
01:24:45
who are getting checks from the US government to scale up right Innovative battery technologies innovative
01:24:53
chip manufacturing and I have to say this is the best of America I see some really great public-private Partnerships
01:25:01
that are onshoring vital national interests in chips and batteries and so I'm happy to see it happening but I also
01:25:09
know there will be grift and there will be waste along the way but compare that David to the 8 trillion we've spent over
01:25:15
the last 20 years on war policy and what we've gotten from that so you know uh yeah I'd rather see us take
01:25:22
chances here on Innovative battery technologies potential waste but not as wasteful as a war well of course I mean
01:25:29
the first thing we got to do is turn off all these crazy Wars but that can't be the bar because that's a very low bar
01:25:34
anything's more productive than War wasting the money blowing up other countries that we don't need to be
01:25:40
involved in I mean remember we do have a 32 trillion dollar debt I think a great thing to do
01:25:46
here is what they should have done with Tesla which is when they give that 500 million dollar loan to Tesla they should
01:25:51
have gotten 10 of that in warrants to buy Tesla shares at the IPO 50 million at that IPO would have gone what 200x
01:25:58
and that would have been an incredible payday so if they give this 9.2 billion to Ford why not get 900 million
01:26:05
governments become a VC no I want them to get a little participation in the uh upside of the company I don't want them
01:26:13
to own it I want that's a potential participation well I I'm giving a modest number here so right now there are VC
01:26:19
without participation but right now they're alone that gets paid back with interest and I'm saying give them some
01:26:25
upside in the equity even if it's a small piece would you object to that sex you basically want to make them a
01:26:30
venture debt provider like svb basically yeah like Venture debt like give them a
01:26:33
pot sweetener yes yes give them a pot sweetener why does it work out so good for svb you may not remember that but it
01:26:40
would have worked out incredibly well with their pressings that's all my problem you might drive a better deal
01:26:45
for the US government in that case which is fine with me but it doesn't solve my
01:26:49
objection which is at the end of the day these decisions are going to be made based on political criteria awesome got
01:26:54
it okay and we're going to end up with chronic capitalism and state capitalism as opposed to entrepreneurial capitalism
01:26:59
but this is in support of that because this is a deal where that 9.8 billion does come over but these are basically
01:27:05
like loans and Loan guarantees and you saw have to put up the equity yourself that doesn't solve anybody's problem
01:27:10
meaning you need to still be entrepreneurial and there needs to be risk capital in this case the risk
01:27:15
capital is coming from Ford and SK and I think that that's my understanding of this chart is really suspicious
01:27:21
or 95 of the cost so there's not much risk Capital here from Ford or SK I mean it might be opportunity costs but it's
01:27:28
not the full cost of these three factories almost 13 billion dollars so there's still a non-trivial amount of
01:27:35
risk risk Capital that has to get put to work here man I would love to only have
01:27:39
to put up 20 on the dollar with 30 cents on the dollar my investments I think Brad does make a good point about the
01:27:46
security of our supply chain I'm more willing to use this sort of industrial policy when we're talking about
01:27:51
something that is vital to the security of the United States I think you could make that argument with chips I don't
01:27:56
think electric vehicles rise to that quite that level batteries might I don't know I wouldn't say batteries do but I
01:28:03
think obtaining a secure supply of the rare Earths that are needed to make batteries there's maybe a role for
01:28:09
government David the reason batteries must is because the only way to wean ourselves off of the dependence we have
01:28:17
on fossil fuels around the world and even though we produce and we're now a net exporter of of oil the reality is
01:28:26
we're still in entanglements around the world because the world is dependent upon those fossil fuels and so I I do
01:28:34
think that that is a national security interest having you know energy Independence not only for ourselves if
01:28:39
Germany was energy independent and kept their nuclear running it didn't have North stream we'd have a different
01:28:43
situation here right now we've got plenty of oil and gas over here all right everybody there you have
01:28:50
it from the architect that was a really good tweet shout out to you oh my god the number of number of
01:29:01
people I I mean did the mids like it or the mids hated it what happened can I just address what this means so when I
01:29:07
think of somebody as a mid it's somebody that is just a hapless impotent cuck that can't think
01:29:14
for themselves Matt Iglesias oh and so what I do what I don't mean is that you know
01:29:21
you're gonna write about us every week you know what this is It's the all-in podcast for clicks if you 10 people have
01:29:28
started can I finish yes it has nothing to do with your financial status it's just everything to
01:29:35
do with your open-mindedness and there are these people that are just so reactive on Twitter I feel a little bit
01:29:41
sad because like in a few years they'll still be very unaccomplished and yet still be wondering
01:29:47
who they can blame now and it'll just be them blame themselves so I would just encourage these people to just [ __ ]
01:29:54
do some work put your head down do the work my god build something make something so anyways most most of the
01:30:00
comments were really great and interesting and then there's a couple of people who are like oh my God how dare
01:30:05
you you know uh and it's like how dare I what how dare I what exactly you can tell that this podcast has truly become
01:30:13
successful when the mainstream media fights up and punches up to try to get us to respond to them to get more people
01:30:19
to subscribe to their substack while playing Matt I'll tell you the funniest thing the funniest thing was I did this
01:30:24
tweet about Buffett and then people are like oh but I thought you compared yourself to Buffett and I was like no no
01:30:31
comparison just benchmarks and then they get tweaked about the word comparison versus benchmark
01:30:36
and then Carson block jumps in and I texted Carson on the side I was like bro I'm just trolling the mids just don't
01:30:44
worry this is all [ __ ] it's not just for [ __ ] together I do it when I'm either pooing or I'm jet lagged it's one
01:30:52
of the other it's on Ambien where while taking a dump or both no ambient for the
01:30:58
dictator the architect and bestie Brad the fifth bestie and our Mass our new mascot Matt the mascot who
01:31:08
will be writing three more sub Stacks about us I am the world's greatest moderator can we make that [ __ ] bread
01:31:14
logo our logo yes to coach who's uh starting measure lunch We Salute You The Olive lunch will not be uh by the
01:31:25
way should you guys touch it do you know what it was was it Brett did you touch it I didn't touch it no what was it I
01:31:32
abandoned it immediately it's a vegan pretzel I don't know that was a vegan is that what they call poop dog poop now a
01:31:39
vegan pretzel Friedberg was gonna be there a vegan [Music] honestly is great I'm gonna buy some fake doodoo
01:32:21
actually you know what they should do they should put that kotu should make fake doo-doo and put it in the gift bag
01:32:25
for all in Summit that would be a great little merch item all right we'll see you all next time bye bye love you boys
01:32:31
[Applause] we'll let your winners ride [Music] we open source it to the fans and
01:32:43
they've just gone crazy [Music] somehow [Music] waiting to get Mercies [Music] I'm going all in