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Chamath: “What does the Fed actually do in 2025?”

August 30, 2025 / 01:28

This episode discusses the Federal Reserve's role in 2025, monetary policy, and economic data accuracy. Key topics include the Fed's effectiveness as a lender, its role in price stability, and banking supervision.

The conversation highlights concerns about the Fed's ability to create monetary policy and maintain price stability, suggesting that capital markets may perform better in these areas. The speaker argues that the Fed's reliance on often incorrect data undermines its decision-making.

Additionally, the episode touches on the Fed's functions in banking supervision and as a payment system, which are viewed as less controversial. The speaker expresses skepticism about the Fed's capacity to manage dynamic economic responsibilities effectively.

TLDR

The episode critiques the Fed's effectiveness in monetary policy and data reliance for 2025.

Episode

1:28
00:00:00
What does the Fed actually do in 2025? We have an extremely vibrant and complicated and interconnected $130
00:00:08
trillion global economy. It's moving at the speed of light. The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine
00:00:16
what monetary policy, what the money supply should look like based on data that is often incorrect. We see that in
00:00:23
the BLS data. We see that in the GDP prints. We see it in all of the inputs. So, I think the real question is there
00:00:29
are certain parts of what the Fed does that they can continue to do and I think everybody would probably say it's an
00:00:35
okay thing. Could they be a lender last resort? Personally, in my opinion, no. I
00:00:40
think that Treasury does a better job. And I think that Treasury has a better mechanism to get the American taxpayer a
00:00:47
win than the Fed does. Do they actually create monetary policy and price stability? I would say that the capital
00:00:53
markets and the free markets actually do a better job of that. They define much more what the spread is. I think sofur
00:00:59
is a much better rate mechanism than the Fed funds rate at this point. Do they do
00:01:03
banking supervision and regulation? Yeah, they probably do a reasonably good job of that. Do they do a good job as a
00:01:08
payment system and a clearing house? Again, probably something that's pretty uncontroversial that they could continue
00:01:14
to do. The bigger picture is the two things that are the most dynamic, they are the worst at doing. And so I would
00:01:21
actually question whether that responsibility should sit with a handful of humans looking at faulty month old
00:01:26
data.

Episode Highlights

  • The Role of the Fed in 2025
    Exploring the effectiveness of the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on the economy.
    “Could they be a lender last resort? Personally, in my opinion, no.”
    @ 00m 38s
    August 30, 2025

Episode Quotes

  • The Fed gets together once a month, tries to divine monetary policy.
    Chamath: “What does the Fed actually do in 2025?”
  • I think Treasury does a better job than the Fed.
    Chamath: “What does the Fed actually do in 2025?”
  • Capital markets do a better job of defining price stability.
    Chamath: “What does the Fed actually do in 2025?”

Key Moments

  • Fed's Monthly Meetings00:11
  • Treasury vs. Fed00:38
  • Market Mechanisms00:53