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awesome hi everyone my name is adina i'm the ceo of divi homes it's a pleasure to
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meet y'all thank you for being here [Music] all right so while they're pulling that
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up i will just kick it off and get started because we're about three hours behind at this point um
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my passions are at the the crossroads of finance housing and and inequality and trying to solve all of these
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i'll get into what my company does at the very end of the presentation that's not what i really want to focus on
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but i want to start off with a little story that i think explains why this is so important to me
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um when it was about the 1980s my mom decided to go on a little road trip with her friends and she was in israel and
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she was backpacking and she was hitchhiking and a man picked her up she got into that car
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fell in love and got pregnant that man is my my dad my mom and dad quickly got married immigrated back to the u.s and
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found themselves very young 21 and 24 pregnant and trying to figure out what they were going to do with their life
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they couldn't get a mortgage to buy a house and settle down and be able to raise a family but they were fortunate
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enough to find a woman who gave them seller financing on their house so this woman financed the purchase of
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the house to let my parents pay an installment and in that house they had three additional kids i'm the third of
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four and then eventually we're able to get a mortgage take cash out of that house and
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use the cash that they took out to pay for all four kids to go to college and i tell you this because to me this
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is the heart of the american dream which is being able to provide a better life for your children than what you actually
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have and so so much of what we're going to be talking about here is why that american
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dream has disappeared for so many americans and what we at dibby are doing to try to address that so let's dive in
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i have these bright blue slides the goal is to just give you the takeaway so you
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don't have to figure it out i try to stick to uh one chart per slide to keep it super simple and i'll explain it but
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this is the the takeaway that you should get from the next couple of data points
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i'm going to give you which is wealth inequality is rising across america i think you all know this chart which is
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that 99 of wealth is owned by the top 50 and the bottom 50 percent only owned one percent of wealth
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here in the united states so this this chart shows distribution of wealth by what your your
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um household income is so the top 10 percent of owners uh sorry the top 10 percent own 76 percent of wealth the
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next 40 on 23 of wealth you sum that up 99 of wealth is owned by the top 50 and what's even more interesting is that
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the rich are getting richer while the poor kind of stay at the same level of income and so what this chart actually
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shows is income percentiles so on the x-axis the zero is if you're at the very bottom end of the income spectrum at 100
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you're at the top end and then the blue line is how much income or family household wealth you had in 1963 almost
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50 years ago and the yellow line shows how much wealth you have today so if you were in the top one percent
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your household wealth was on average two million dollars 50 years ago today it's about 10 million or a 5x
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growth and if you were in the bottom 50th percentile you haven't seen your household income change almost at all
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and so you might be asking okay why is this the case is it that wealthy people are making more in salary i i would say
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while there are some salary differentials the main driver is asset appreciation access to assets when i say
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assets i'm going to use that pretty liberally it can mean stocks it can mean housing it can mean small businesses
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direct investments but all of that i'm going to group together as investments in assets
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and so you can see this is a really simple chart where i took what were the 20-year returns by income as well as
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asset and you can see that household income has not appreciated much in the last 20 years whereas the s p 500 as
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well as if you owned equity in your home you'd see an increase in your value of over a hundred percent
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you want to see something even crazier you get leverage on your home equity which is something that most of you some
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of you might get get uh leverage against your equity that you mess in the stock market but most of you aren't
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um you can actually lever up your home equity right and so you can take out debt that's cheap because it's backed
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and guaranteed by the government eighty percent leverage at what has been almost three percent cost of capital
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no one else can get that sort of cost of capital at that sort of leverage um you're forced to amortize so you build
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up savings in the property and a house has dual utility you cannot live in the s p 500 you can live in a home
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and so if we click on um and so the takeaway has to be those who own assets are more likely to have a higher net
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worth and so this is a chart that i sold from the new york times so credit goes to them but if you look on the left hand
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side the blue bars all of the bars kind of sum up to 100 going across so the blue bars is the percent of family so
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bottom 50 percentile of income earners 50 50 to 80th percentile 30 so on and what this is saying is that the
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bottom 50 percent of families and households own one percent of overall equities in the market and
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when you look at directly held stocks so stocks in the stock market they own zero
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percent right and if you look at the top one percent of of of income earners they own 38 of overall equities which
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includes like retirement accounts and everything remember i said that big asset class
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and they own 51 of all directly held stocks so if you ask why are the rich getting
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richer it is because they own assets assets compound over time there's also a ton of tax benefits around owning assets
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long-term capital gains which i'm sure you all know um another way to look at this which i
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think is really interesting is your net worth um by renter versus homeowner homeowners on
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average have 75 times the net worth of a renter this is all census data it's all publicly available
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i'm happy to share it and i think what is is so interesting here is that i'm not saying the answer
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is home ownership you want to invest in crypto great you want to put your money into the s p 500
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even better however the majority of americans as you just saw on this slide don't invest in equities as much right
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it's just hard to conceptualize whereas a house is actually pretty easy to conceptualize
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and because the debt amortizes you're forced to save over time it's highly illiquid it's hard to take your money
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out of it it is what makes a great investment and so when you look at why this chart is so high it's not because
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homeowners are saving a tremendous amount more right it's they're saving they're putting money into the equity of
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the home they're being forced to in their payments so despite the benefits of home
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ownership it is starting to become fundamentally inaccessible so this is a chart really simple of of
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average home prices there's a bunch of different ways you different sources you can measure home
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prices but you can see that at the bottom of the recession which was actually 2012 for home prices the
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average home price in america was 163 000 um and that today it's closer to 338 thousand dollars that's a 200 percent
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increase in ten years at the same time real median income has only increased from about fifty seven thousand dollars
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to sixty seven thousand dollars um so what has caused prices for homes to increase so dramatically if i do i'm
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pretty sure that none of this is new news you all have been seeing how much home prices have have risen for those of
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you who have bought uh while interest rates are three were still three percent good on you because that is probably the
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lowest they're going to be in a really really long time but here's the quick history which is um
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from 2000 to 2008 we were building on average one and a half billion homes that's our million homes a year not
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billion gosh one and a half million homes a year and that equated to roughly four to five
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months of inventory months of inventory mean that if if there were no more homes that were put
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on the market how long would it take to sell all those homes four to five months
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and that's generally considered a balanced real estate market then what happened the global financial
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crisis there was a mass number of foreclosures the market was completely flooded and all of a sudden you could
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buy an existing home that was going into foreclosure for 163 000 and so builders who had to pay for labor
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for lumber right to actually build a house couldn't build a house for that cheap
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the the cheapest that a home builder can build the home is roughly 200 000 all in cost right and so if you can sit
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there and you're like i can only build a house for two hundred thousand dollars which means i have to sell it for more
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than two hundred thousand dollars well i can't compete with existing foreclosure
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inventory so homebuilders stopped building they went from building 1.5 uh million a year down to about 750
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000 homes a year after that and it stayed like that until about 2015 and at that point a lot of the inventory
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that came from foreclosures were absorbed and they started actually rebuilding again but they didn't rebuild
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at the same rate that they had prior we're rebuilding right now we're building probably new inventories one
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point i'd say 1.2 million annually and so then this massive thing happened which is which is covid and all
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of a sudden everyone went from living in their studio apartment to saying i need
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a backyard i need extra room for child care and i need an office and there was this mass spike in demand after years of
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not building enough inventory and so what happens when demand starts to spike and there's not a lot of supply while
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home prices took off which you can kind of see right over here is that little spiky part at the very end
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and what's amazing is that it's actually just gotten incredibly harder not just because home prices are getting more
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expensive but because of the impact that that has in terms of how much you actually need to save to buy a home so
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the left-hand chart shows the yellow bar is your average down payment and you can see that that's
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grown roughly 2x at the same time median income in the last 20 years hasn't gone
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up so on an absolute dollar basis you now need to save 2x the amount that you would have had to save back in 2000 so
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one it's down payment is an issue the second issue is that post global financial crisis rightly so the
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government tightened underwriting requirements they said you know what turns out when you cause a global
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worldwide recession we should maybe change how we're doing things and so they pulled back and said we're going to
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make you have a higher fico in order to be able to purchase a home which is probably the right answer but also
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pretty painful because people don't wake up one day they're like i no longer need a home
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right and so if you take a look at this the average fico for home buyers is well
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above what the average fico is for the general population and anyone who's under 45 years is even lower because
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fico cures over time and so what does this all come together and say is that um unless you you know have the ability
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to save 2x the amount unless you are above average in terms of fico when you're starting off your life
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in a starter home you're going to struggle to actually be able to buy a home now this chart seems a little confusing
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but i think it's really important to look at and understand so i'll walk you through it so what this chart shows is
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is mortgage rates three percent six percent nine percent we were at three percent call it a year ago we're at i
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think five and a half percent right now is roughly where the 30-year fixed is and then nine percent who knows maybe
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hopefully not in the future and that says what is your mortgage tax and insurance payments what you have to
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include for a 400 000 home which is roughly average home price and i know a little different in miami but this is
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kind of across the u.s and then i said how much income do you need in order to get that mortgage and you
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can see that your income that you need goes from about 94 000 of household income up to about 160 000 of household
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income and then i said how many households could qualify for that because there's
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data on on how much income households make across the u.s they're 126 million households in the us and you can see
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that historically almost 40 percent uh sorry 30 percent of households actually could afford a mortgage where we were
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before and that number today has gone down to now 22 and will go down to about less than 15
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percent of people who can actually get a mortgage on a home this is insane so over here i kind of i like to just
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overly simplify things so i kind of put it here which is a ten thousand dollar increase in home prices means one
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million fewer families can own a home or a one percent increase in mortgage rates mean five million families can
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actually own a home so we're in a little bit of a tough situation here um so when i started divi the goal was
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to help solve wealth inequality by giving americans access to assets this is the sole goal the purpose what i
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really believe in um which is that access to assets and compounding uh wealth in something that you cannot
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easily pull your money out of and you just leave it there is the way that we can help people generate wealth for
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their families for their children for their next generation um so the way divi works is very similar
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to a mortgage except it's not a mortgage uh you come to our website you apply we
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give you a budget so we might say hey you're approved for 500 000 home in miami go out shopping you shop with your
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realtor the same way you would with a mortgage and when you're ready to buy a home you just let us know what home you
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choose we say great we put out an all quick close offer for you so you can compete with every other investor offer
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that's out there we'll take care of it for you because we know how to bid on these
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homes we then take care of the inspections we cover all closing costs all fees everything we head to closing and you
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commit either one to two percent down which is about a tenth of a usual down payment down payments are ten to twenty
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percent we say one to two percent and that's your initial equity in the home you own that that is yours and then you
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move in you make one monthly payment part rent part equity the same way a mortgage is principal and interest
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and the equity piece builds up your percent ownership we let you build up to 10 percent over the course of three
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years at any point in time you can get a mortgage or refinance and take us out or
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you can cash out your equity and walk away hopefully with tens of thousands of dollars saved up
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so that is how we work we operate in 16 metros our biggest ones are georgia texas and florida florida's
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a big one up in tampa the average income of our customers is about a 50 000 to 150 000 household
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income uh 50 of our customers are people of color and 80 of our transactions are
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female female-led and so i think the most important thing is are we successful in our mission and
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what we're trying to do um so 51 of divi customers who have come to the end of their three year lease have been able to
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buy back their home probably another 20 on top of it aren't yet ready for mortgage and so we just let them build
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more equity over time and about 30 percent of people turn over which is completely fine sometimes you have an
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extra kid or two and you need a bigger home and that's that's okay we actually love that people can cash out their
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money uh and continue moving on um over here we have what i think is one of the more powerful thing which is the
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average renter savings versus the average savings that a divi customer has in their home we're almost 25 times the
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savings that the average renter has and this is because they are building up equity in their property over time
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um over here just to show we're growing quickly and we're doing it profitably actually i think this is super important
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is you can sit here and say that you're building a mission oriented company you have to show scale
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you have to show growth and you have to show the people there is adoption and you're actually having an impact and so
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this year alone will deploy over a billion dollars of capital we measure a margin as the rent that we collect less
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home costs less interest so it's like a true profit all-in margin um where we're
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almost probably going to be at about 25 all in profit margin um and now i think we have yeah thank
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you um uh i think that there is a video but i don't know if they're showing it so we
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can we can maybe go to q a for running close on time okay cool thank you i know that friberg's
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going to talk to you about consumer credit but let me just tee up something before um
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there's a tweet i just want to read it to you and maybe we can use this as a jumping-off point
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blackstone calls homes almost as unaffordable as a 2007 peak they just said that today
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yeah um his name is joe ziddle who's a i guess a senior partner there um but he believes a crash is unlikely due to a
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major difference which is that most owners aren't using their homes like an atm like they did back then yeah um can you
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explain um sort of the broader state of housing actually and sure uh why some people
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feel like we're actually okay right at the brink of a crisis again and some people don't
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okay yeah interesting so the global financial crisis is very different than this because it was obviously a
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housing-led crisis where we had people overextend and they didn't have enough equity that was built up in their house
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to cushion a decline in home prices i'd say that this is a very different situation today and i'd say that because
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one we don't have a lot of supply and so fundamentally when you're thinking about pricing supply and demand
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dynamics number one we don't have a lot of supply now what you can probably argue is there is an equilibrium point
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meaning interest rates are increasing which is starting to stifle some demand don't get
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me wrong we're actually seeing that a bit in the market and then there's new home built that are
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coming online and at some point there's going to be enough inventory coming online
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that there's going to be enough supply and a decrease enough in demand that it will impact home prices now i don't know
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that that's going to be in the next six months i actually think it's going to be
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more like 12 to 18 months and i don't think that it means that there's going to be a mass fall off like it was in the
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global financial crisis but it will slow down the price of which homes are growing out how much
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of this is just the like miscast housing policy that a lot of states and cities have i'll give you an
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example of where i live i just got an you know an email from our mayor and basically what it said is like in the
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state of california now they've basically said you need to have a certain amount of housing density
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they're trying to figure out how to do it they're not going to build high-rises because those aren't allowed then they
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you know you allow these adus to get built that qualify and it's all gamesmanship because
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as far as i can read it the nimbyism of not wanting to have high density homes and that seems to be a very just
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american phenomenon well i actually think that it's a little bit that the markets just react slower
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like this isn't the houses aren't equity markets they don't just you can't just buy and sell rapidly it's like oh i want
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to build an entire community of homes five years i'm going to have to now plan in order to get the government licensing
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the regulation the permits to actually build and so you see a problem you're like oh
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home prices are increasing and then it's like five years later you can actually do
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something to actually impact it and by then the entire market has like completely changed and we've rush
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invaded ukraine and covid took over and there's a global pandemic and so i think the bigger issue is that the
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housing market can't react as quick to keep up with public equity markets and a lot of that is because the
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government highly regulates the building of homes which takes a tremendous amount
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of time and especially right now where builders are like i think that most builders miss their q1
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numbers how many houses they were actually going to build by almost 60 which was mostly supply chain so even
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when they rush it a lot of other factors are impacting it and then what do you think about the
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because i've talked about this a little bit on the pot because it's something that's really i think poorly understood
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but important in my opinion where fannie mae and freddie change the upper bounds
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of mortgage of mortgages where you know you can you they can be conforming now at like a million dollars whereas before
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they used to be considered jumbos and yeah anyways the reason i'm asking this question is i feel like there's a lot of
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financialization in engineering here in the housing market that is poorly understood
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that in some ways tricks consumers to getting in a little bit over their ski tips and then in a moment like this
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where rates rise their jobs a little bit more insecure this is when all of the parade of terribles happened yeah so we
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just added a wonderful woman uh her name is kimberly johnson's as actually her first independent she was the ceo of
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fannie mae and i brought her on to like fully understand as much of this as possible
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um so the last time the government changed the underwriting criteria it led to the global financial crisis so if you
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ask them if they're like really excited to do it another time they're like no no
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we we learned our lesson once um so i'd say that they're actually because they've been under conservatorship so
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most of fannie mae's operations have been very dictated by the government um they're not actually taking probably the
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level of risk that they should in this current market and what i mean by that is if home prices go up by 30 percent
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the what actually qualifies as a conventional mortgage needs to go up by 30 percent
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um but that is such a massive change for government to make because they're so shell-shocked i think
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from having made a change before and it having such a negative ripple effect so when i you know spoke to kimberly her
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her response was no no we're not here to start making these changes to make it easier for consumers to get a home
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that's your job you disrupt us you do that i'm not here to take risk but you but they felt the government
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just felt like they still like i they felt like that was just a natural change that had to happen
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raising the the upper bound yeah i mean of course everyone is what's actually even crazier is i'm waiting for them to
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actually raise the debt to income ratio because of what i showed you earlier which is if your income is not
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increasing and mortgage rates are going up and home values are going up you now need to
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spend a larger percentage of your income on housing that's it's that's a lending change right but isn't
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that up to the individual banks they could change they put overlays on top of fannie mae's requirements but fannie mae
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because they actually put so when the global financial crisis happened there were such uh very high fees and
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penalties that went for banks that didn't have really strict overlays that actually had a ton of defaults and so
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now banks are super nervous to lend to people and actually take risk that they actually follow fannie mae's
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guidelines very strictly and actually put overlays on top of it so they actually are more conservative a lot of
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times than what the underwriting requirements are and so in order for them to actually
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start to take risk i think fannie mae would have to encourage and they'd have to do it in such a way that they don't
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penalize yesterday we had uh bill gurley and brad gershner on if you saw that panel didn't hear about it now okay yeah
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so you did see it or not okay okay um we looked at all of assets being inflated yeah uh from
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used cars to nfts and everything in between uh and we've now seen compression and we
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talked about this on the pod in every single sector yeah except housing yep and so we're all sitting
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here wondering what are the chances that housing collapses i was talking to um my pal uh palmer backstage remember
00:24:03
new bestie interestingly we went backstage and no no no don't ruin it every week no we
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just sat there we had a great conversation about ten different things it was pretty interesting um
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so what are the chances and we were talking about the chances of a collapse he said oh maybe it's 30
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chance this real estate collapse we're watching your talk 30 chance maybe the the real estate market collapse
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what are the chances in your mind being so close to it that we will see housing collapse and this be a bubble look
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there's there's no question that housing growth is going to slow down if you look down but i'm asking you guys
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price prices pricing new homes prices pricing the growth will slow now whether it goes negative or not i think is more
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a matter of what the economy does over the next 24 months um but i actually think that what we
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will definitively see which we have seen i'd say in the last two weeks we've seen
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a slow down um in the in the rate of growth for homes um now the global financial crisis was very different than
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than what we're seeing today and if you anybody bottom of the the stock market for the
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global financial crisis 3909 bottom of housing prices june of 2012. three years later
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why because the housing market moves so slowly compared to the equities market and so it is not surprising that housing
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is going to be the last thing that's going to actually start to to compress in terms of people people live there for
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a while they can afford their mortgages then their income drops and they can't afford their mortgages then they get
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foreclosed then it's six months later the stock market drop and you're like i should sell my home that's going to take
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30 days then i have to find someone oh that's going to take another 30 days oh then i have to wait till they move in
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that's another 30 days and so it's three months before you can like make a trade i think you can't log on to
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your robin hood account and be like yeah i know the market's thinking let's get rid of our house can i can i
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shift the conversation for a second um you're a founder of a unicorn yeah raised the big round yeah
00:26:00
uh congratulations thank you uh time to write so well this is what i was just gonna
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ask you can you talk to us about your mindset in this moment now in terms of your valuation in terms of
00:26:14
your cash in terms of your burn in terms of your employees what's what's sort of front of mind what
00:26:19
are you doing same different yeah um i'd say so we raised um a 200 million round from tiger uh it was
00:26:28
preempted um back about six months ago or maybe even nine months ago at this point
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um and i think that it's actually interesting because i listen to you guys on the pod um the besties and i think
00:26:40
that you know for me as a founder when i was going through that moment i was like
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well [ __ ] man it's a black friday sale like i can raise a ton of cash i'm getting
00:26:49
preempted left and right and so i actually think that founders like obviously i should have played the
00:26:56
game that i played which is like why wouldn't i raise a ton of capital and take less dilution there was nothing
00:27:02
that was the right chess move at that point in time and now kind of to your point
00:27:08
and by the way it's not founders fault that the market got overheated you guys gave us the terms you did the
00:27:13
rational thing [Music] by the way don't point it yet you did the right no no you did the rational
00:27:19
thing rational yeah completely and so but now but now now you have to just now i'd say look divvy we make i don't know
00:27:27
we haven't probably put out there but hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue i burn
00:27:31
less than i don't know five to ten million a month to less than five million a month um we have 300 employees
00:27:40
and do i think you have to be conservative yes do i think you had to be conservative along the entire way of
00:27:45
building a company yes every second i thought my company can die at any moment right a hundred percent
00:27:52
and i run my company like that my cup they my employees joke they're like you're
00:27:56
the most frugal person ever like every single time it's awesome we need to spend it i'm like
00:28:04
thank you yeah that's awesome do you um do you rely on your late stage investors
00:28:08
in moments like this to like help you navigate or how do you do it do you rely on your early stage
00:28:13
first of all i don't think you rely on investors ever yeah no i don't mean that offensively i think
00:28:18
that some investors are great but no one's building this company with you i am building this company
00:28:23
with my employees but ain't nobody else there with me and so when times get tough um it is on you
00:28:30
to make sure you can have a path to casual profitability if you can actually raise another round of capital um but
00:28:36
you try to support your employees and work together to kind of weather through this but i don't expect any of my
00:28:42
investors to show up with a hail mary and um i think that it's on me to run a really
00:28:47
strong profitable business and so any changes from june to now or not really just kind of
00:28:53
stay the course get to the cashflow break even um like meaning nothing to accelerate it or
00:28:59
so i think we plan out a bunch of different cases so we always have the base case target case and then what i
00:29:05
call the off ramp which is cash flow positive and every week my cfo ceo and i get on a
00:29:12
call and we just say how's the market doing how do we feel do we want to switch from our base to our target case
00:29:18
do we want to go down the off-ramp path nope this week feels the same the all-in
00:29:22
podcast didn't change our sentiment and we continue on on monday morning as planned we're all in sentiment index i
00:29:29
like it it's it's great to um to have you here and i had had you on my podcast earlier
00:29:35
and i had told you like god i thought this was gonna be the most boring podcast and it was one of the best of
00:29:39
the year uh you are uh thank you i don't know if that's a complimentary tell us how you really
00:29:46
feel yeah you know it was like a boring topic and and uh you you actually do it again please tell us
00:29:52
like a really boring topic but a great guest and you made it really really um both really educational i think the
00:29:59
audience they're still fully until right now wow wait uh day one i do have as we're heading
00:30:09
towards ending i do have an intro oh because i thought we were all getting i tried this it didn't work
00:30:16
well i thought we were all gonna get interest anyone [Applause] which i feel like i should give which is
00:30:29
um are y'all ready for it i'm in miami chilling with the besties on this stage in a minefield of testes
00:30:41
j cal kindly invited me to share my passion so here goes in true all in fashion i play the housing long game as
00:30:49
the stock market will jitter but solving inequality is less flashy than almost buying twitter
00:30:55
i'm the rent to own leader in the prop tech arena i'd like to reintroduce myself my name is adina
00:31:01
[Applause] [Applause] [Music] and they've just gone crazy with them [Music] we should all just get a room and just
00:31:46
have one big huge orgy because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual tension but they just need to
00:31:50
release [Music] your feet [Music] we need to get [Music]