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E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics

March 08, 2024 / 01:34:00

This episode covers Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, the implications of TikTok's potential ban, and the rise of Bitcoin. Guests include Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sachs.

The discussion begins with Elon Musk suing OpenAI for breach of contract and fiduciary duty, claiming the organization deviated from its original nonprofit mission. The hosts analyze Musk's motivations, including his concerns about the concentration of AI power and the implications for tax law.

Next, the conversation shifts to TikTok, where lawmakers propose a bipartisan bill to ban the app unless its parent company, ByteDance, divests. The hosts debate the potential risks of allowing TikTok to operate in the U.S. given its ties to the Chinese government.

Finally, the episode touches on Bitcoin's recent surge, attributed to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and an upcoming halving event. The hosts discuss the implications for Bitcoin's future and its role as a store of value.

TLDR

Elon Musk sues OpenAI, TikTok faces a potential ban, and Bitcoin surges amid ETF approvals.

Episode

1:34:00
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Cham who are you giggling with are you with your kids what's going on here you're you're making goog I got I got a
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message from that she's like is it hel no no I got a message from that she's so funny so you know we I was like blah
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blah blah she did a Uranus joke into my chat and I lost it it is like a Freo says your anus is right there at
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the edge of the UN she's like no she's like are you hungry I could eat a Uranus oh no we could go to a great restaurant
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Urus they serve great meals there they have a great chocolate lava let your winners
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ride and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy with iten
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of all right everybody welcome back to your favorite podcast of all time it's episode 169 of Allin with me again the
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chairman dictator jamath ptia David freeberg your Sultan of Science and the Rainman yeah definitely David Sachs has
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his Monclair hat back again I guess they're back in stock how we doing boys welcome back to the show let's get to
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the docket here issue one Elon has sued open AI begun the meme Wars have after we finished the recording last week the
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memes are incredible after we finished recording last week Elon sued Sam Waltman Greg Brockman and
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the open AI organization he's suing for breach of contract fiduciary duty and unfair competition and his argument is
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basically open AI started as an open source nonprofit as you know he he gave them something like 50 or 75 million if
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both those numbers quoted and then of course everybody knows open AI turned into closed AI they became a closed
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Source for-profit Venture after the tech was deployed this enabled them obviously to
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to benefit from tax uh nonprofit tax breaks while building the tech but they now have two corporate entities this is
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nonprofit called open AI there's a for-profit it's called open AI Global LLC that was created in
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2019 and this all this funky relationship between the two we'll get into that because it's kind of
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interesting actually Elon said that if open AI is allowed to do this then it should be the standard for every company
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going forward that's an interesting point you can start by donating money to a nonprofit and then make a for-profit
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seems pretty C Capital efficient so what do Elon want to get out of this according to the lawsuit he wants open
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AI to open source their models by the way that's what Facebook and Appo are doing right now so that that seems more
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than reasonable since that's how the company was formed and he wants to make sure that shareholders receive no
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Financial benefit from open Ai and we can get more into a bunch of the open AI nonprofit status and and
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their structure it's super convoluted but I want to just get your initial reaction sacks I haven't read the legal
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filings Jason my knowledge of the case is just coming from following what's on Twitter and the last time I commented on
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one of elon's lawsuits on this pod I ended up in six hours of deposition so remember that was the the whole
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Twitter lawsuit in any event my understanding of the case from the tweets that are flying back and
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forth is I think Elon is making two points one is that when open AI was set up it was set up to to be a nonprofit
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and to promote AI as an open source technology that everyone could benefit from and no one large tech company would
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control in that case Elon was primarily concerned about Google I think now he's more concerned about Microsoft
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nonetheless the idea was that this would be open source so I think Point number one is
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Elon feels like the rug was pulled out from under him after he donated 40 something million dollars to this they
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completely changed what it was going to be and I think he's used the word swindled
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before he feels like he was cheated and I think usually when there's a lawsuit like this um it's usually because
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somebody does feel phenomenally cheated by what happened so I think that's the first point the second is that I think
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that elon's making is well wait a second if you can start a company as a nonprofit using pre-tax dollars and then
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all a sudden convert to for-profit then why wouldn't everybody do this in order to circumvent paying taxes and I think
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that's another I'd say valid and interesting point that that he's made now openai has responded to this by
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publishing some of elon's emails to them and they think that they have a Smoking
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Gun here because apparently Elon told them they need to raise far more money in order to have a
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chance of taking on Google deepmind I just don't know whether that's the Smoking Gun they claim it is but that's
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that's basically what they're putting out there and then to add fuel to the fire you've got VCS coming over the top
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debating different aspects of this you've got sort of venod Defending open AI he was the first VC investor in it
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and so he's been out there attacking Elon and then I think Mark Andre is responding to venod and may I know if
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he's exactly defending Elon anyway it's turned into a whole melstrom on X and then everyone else is start starting to
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put out a whole bunch of crazy memes so I don't know who's gonna win this case in court but the memes are
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definitely lit and U maybe the funniest one is that Elon has said that uh if open AI will simply changed their name
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to closed AI he'll drop the lawsuit I think he's serious about that I think he is serious about it but I think he's
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making his point which is you ended up doing something different than what you told me when you got me to write this
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big donation and when we co-founded this thing together so I think that sort of sums up elon's position on this
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Jam a year from now where do you think we'll be with this well I think I think there's one more thing which is
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that they used his name pretty aggressively to get more money and he was very instrumental in getting some of
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the early critical hires particularly Ilia which has been I think well documented SS to leave Google right so
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that's probably sacks where also some of this feeling that he was Bamboozled comes
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from but I think that all of those emotions matter less than the rule of law which is his second point which is
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the important Point irrespective of whatever one email says or another email it's not great for the US tax system if
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all of a sudden a big gaping loophole is identified and taken advantage of I think that there's a huge economic
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incentive for the State of California every other state where these open AI employees lived and have gotten equity
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and now have gotten paid there's an incentive for treasury there's an incentive for the
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IRS it touches a lot of aspects of very complicated tax law and so I think that's why there will be a resolution to
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this case because I think that that answer is very important and I think it will as he has correctly
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identified motivate a lot of people's actions going forward so independent of what the emotional situation is amongst
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all the all the actors in this play the reality is he's identified a loophole and that loophole needs to get fixed
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I'll give you a a different example of this that's much more benign but it dragged on for eight or nine years at
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Facebook there was a period where and this was public so I can I can tell you we transferred a lot of our IP to
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Ireland at one moment and there was a transfer payment and whatnot and then a few years afterwards when when every
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everybody realized including us and we had miscalculated but when everybody realized the value of Facebook that
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transfer payment did not seem correct and it was a huge tax ARB that we had facilitated right because all of that IP
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sitting inside of Ireland gets taxed at you know a very different rate than that
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IP would have gotten taxed in the United States and other companies had copied this long story short the IRS Su you
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know similar to you David I was in years of depositions and interviews and all of
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this stuff so the point is that the government really cares about these kinds of things because so much money is
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on the line and if open aai turns out to be this multi hundred billion dollar Behemoth this will get figured out in
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court because there's just too much money at stick freeberg any thoughts and maybe Steelman if if you feel like it
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open eyes position I think we're all ignoring the documents that open AI put out yesterday showing emails and
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interactions with Elon where Elon acknowledged and recognized the necessity of having a for-profit
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subsidiary that could pursue the interests of the foundation by raising billions of
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dollars of outside capital I think it's a really interesting set of facts that provides a
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different light on the story and it was really important that open AI released it I'm going to share a hold on fre I
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did mention that freeberg I mentioned that too my point is it doesn't allow you to break the law yeah so let me just
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um tell you guys uh a little bit about another example my sister works at a nonprofit called the Cystic Fibrosis
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Foundation cystic fibrosis is an inherited disorder affects the lungs and digestive
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tract it's debilitating really affects children there was a nonprofit called the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation
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established in 1955 they did tons of work on drug development research and it was a nonprofit profit for years until
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they realized that there needed to be a market-based system to create the necessary incentives to drive the
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capital needed to find a drug that could cure cystic fibrosis and in the year 2000 they
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invested out of their Foundation endowment $40 million in a company called Aurora biosciences subsequently
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it was acquired by vertex and they continued to invest another $60 million so total of 100 million bucks in the
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lifetime of the development of a drug that could cure this disease in 2005 a drug was discovered
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and in 2012 the FDA approved it the nonprofit then sold their rights their interest in this for-profit
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entity for $3.3 billion it was an incredible return it was the largest wow investment return by
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a nonprofit in history who did they sell it to back to the company I actually think they sold the rights to royalty
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Pharma who you and I know well and that $3.3 billion continued uh opened up this
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ability for them to continue to make investments they now fund biotech VCS and they make direct Investments and
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other things but it really set the Benchmark for this concept of what's called Venture philanthropy where a
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nonprofit parent company can make investments in for-profits that can raise additional Capital that's needed
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to pursue the broad difficult interests of the nonprofit and I think that this argument really kind of ties into what
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happened with open Ai and you can see it in the email exchanges with Elon where he was so impression that I I give Elon
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extraordinary credit for this that he saw that this is going to take billions of dollars a year of investment to
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realize the pursuit that open AI was going after and there was no way that Elon was going to be able to generate
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that cash himself or that Reed or others were going to just be able to Pony up that money they needed to have some sort
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of for-profit vehicle that would allow the market to work and allow capitalists to find their Capital into this
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organization to make this this investment interest so I think the real question with respect to is open AI in
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trouble as a foundation is does the nonprofit own a meaningful piece of the for-profit entity and I
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don't know the answer to that I don't know if you guys do sounds like it I mean yeah must right so if they do then
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they have an investment interest the second question is does the nonprofit parent still do charitable stuff because
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if it doesn't then there's a real question on the nonprofit status I think you have to have a certain amount of
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your assets deployed every year in order to qualify for 501c3 so I think the test in the courts
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will likely end up being look it's totally reasonable to have a for-profit entity to fund a for-profit entity other
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nonprofits have done it particularly when you need to attract billions of dollars of outside Capital to make it
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work the real question is does the nonprofit still do nonprofit stuff that's an interesting question because
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freeberg do you think that when they booted off the uh the nonprofit experts from the board that they they may have
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crossed a tripwire there yes yeah I'm no lawyer I'm no lawyer that's a great question I did a little journalism and I
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talked to a couple of people who are in and around two other of these scenarios one of the
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key issues here is that the IP in your example freeberg it wasn't like that cystic fibrosis organization did the
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drug Discovery right they didn't do it correct well they I think they they handed over some some research that was
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open and public at the time and they but they funded an independent forit and so
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what happened here was you had the IP and the employees of the nonprofit given gied they were transferred over to the
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for profit organization and they when the Mozilla Foundation did this and another company called SAS source and
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these both have two structures a nonprofit and a for-profit but in both of their cases they set up separate
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boards and the two different boards you know answer to the for-profit concerns and the nonprofit concerns they also
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didn't give huge chunks of equity to all of the employees which then sold them in
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secondary so what's happened here is all of the IP in all likelihood has been and
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the wealth transfer has gone to all these employees they've now done a secondary and this actually triggers a
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lot of IRS investigations the Mozilla Foundation which was making the Netscape browser which many of you probably have
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used over the years they were making hundreds of millions of dollars a year David from advertising with Google the
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IRS said hey wait a second you look like a for-profit to us so they made a for-profit entity all of the and
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Mitchell Baker and the team over there set this up so all the money went back into the Mozilla foundation in their
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nonprofit efforts and they just paid above Market salaries but it was very important that these things be separated
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and that the employees not have equity and that all that money flowed back up and I think this is where open AI is
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going to get super tripped up and I think the IRS is going to have a field day here here's the Nick can you please
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throw the image up this is from the open AI website that explains their structure so
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let's just speculate for a second because we're we just guessing but it has been reported that Microsoft owns
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49% right that's the number of the for-profit in this example Microsoft where it says minority economic interest
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that number there would be 49 and that's what they own of this open AI Global LLC and the majority owner is this
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holding company okay so that means 51% is there but it says here that that 51% is owned by a combination of the
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nonprofit employees and investors so the question is back to Sax's question we can know very precisely how much the the
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nonprofit owns by just exing out the investors and employees and I'm going to guess it's at least 30 or 40% I think
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that that's probably a pretty reasonable guess so it means that the open AI Foundation probably own somewhere
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between five to 20% is that fairly reasonable guess at the maximum that's seems right
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yeah and so I think that they're going to have to show that ownership structure and and decompose all these entities and
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show the the actual percentages if it's a lot less than that if it's say like a 1% thing then it's a
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little bit more sketch I think but if it's really like 15 or 20% they're still going to have to prove
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that all of this was done in um in a clean way because the the big thing that these guys did was because by creating
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this lpgp structure and these Capp profits it's clear that they were trying to avoid something and the question is
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in the discovery will everybody learn what it is that they were trying to avoid because I've been through this I
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think saak you've been through it freeberg you were through it when you set up these large vehicles
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and pulled amounts of money folks come out of the woodwork with all kinds of convoluted structures and the discipline
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is always to tell these lawyers and accountants no and they'll be like let's set up a
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master feeder and you'll go through Bermuda and this and that and and it's so easy to say yes because it's very
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seductive what they're selling you but it's always about trying to avoid something so the real question is why
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this convoluted structure what was it trying to avoid and where did this IP come from like all that IP sacks came
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from a nonprofit all those employees worked for the nonprofit then they decided to go from an open
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source model to closed and then by doing that they capture all the value and then
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it's gifted to these employees and this investor base that's where I think but remember well it's important to remember
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the majority of the IP that exists at open AI today was generated after the for-profit was set up the real question
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was there a fair transfer at the time when it was set up of value into this for-profit entity and my guess is that
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GP box that you just looked at the compensation that they're earning through that GP box that the nonprofit
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earns is likely meant to be kind of a a fair amount relative to what was contributed at the time the real
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question for me Still Remains What other nonprofit and charitable work does the open AI 501c3 actually do and if there's
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the answer is nothing and it's just a shell nonprofit and under it the only thing that it owns is a for-profit
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interest then I think there's a real question on what's the activity and I I don't mean to speak out of turn on all
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this stuff I don't know enough but I think that's the only sort of lens I would kind of look at this stuff through
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S going to say something well a couple of points one is one of my contentions has been never innovate on structure all
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you do is create legal problems there's a tried andrue way of creating a startup
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which is a a C Corp when you try to innovate on legal instead of product it almost always
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backfires the second Point here is I think open AI is in a little bit of a damned if you do damned if you don't
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situation to go back to freeberg point about the nonprofit sitting at the top there remember what created all the
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problems when Sam briefly got fired as CEO and then came back is they had these directors from the nonprofit world who
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didn't really seem to understand how startups worked and so either they fired Sam for no reason which was kind of
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incompetent or they had a really good reason but didn't communicate it properly which was Al incompetent either
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way that whole thing was a it was a spectacle and it just kind of showed that there was this like culture Clash
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going on between the for-profit company and like the standard way of running a Silicon Valley startup to maximize the
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outcome and then this nonprofit board that was sitting on top of the whole thing so I think that now they're in the
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situation where they've changed that nonprofit board they've booted off the nonprofit people
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and that may have been the right thing for the for-profit entity but now it might get them in trouble because it
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lends Credence to elon's lawsuit that they've completely changed the original Mission of of this
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organization it was supposed to be it was supposed to be open source yes and it was supposed to be nonprofit and now
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it's for-profit and closed Source think about this you know and again we are speculating here but if it if the
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mission was to be open sourced and then you realize you've got something super valuable and you close
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Source it create a for-profit and then take all the employees and all the IP and put it into the for-profit lock it
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down break the original Mission that hey this was going to help Humanity because
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we're going to make it open source so if you donate money here and we get the tax
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exemption Humanity benefits because everybody gets to look at that code at the same time and work on it and iterate
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now they they've just basically stolen all that in order to enrich themselves and I think think then you add to it Sam
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maybe doing some deal making which seems to be one of the triggers according to reports and this open AI Venture fund
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Etc maybe that deal making made the nonprofit people say Hey listen you're doing even more for-profit stuff with
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the open AI name we're supposed to be a nonprofit here what's the Venture fund thing he started a venture fund to
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invest in companies called the open AI Ventures fund and he was the sole owner of it which they're saying now it's a
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clerical mistake or something but he's invested in a bunch of startups that have unique access ACC to the open AI
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you know I think he's the he's the GP on behalf of open the open. fund he's a no
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but he said GP on behalf of himself or on behalf of open the way the paperwork was done it was on behalf of himself
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they're now saying that that was done in Era so okay fine maybe it was maybe it wasn't who knows actually we're gonna
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wait wait the open AI fund yes whose money is that uh Sam raised the money to create
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an open ey fund to to invest in companies using open AI software okay so that's a different kind of issue that's
00:22:05
called a corporate opportunity issue where open AI fund it's basically a a conflict of
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interest where the Economic Opportunity of the open AI starup fund should belong
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to open AI if Sam created a separate fund with separate LPS that he's the GP of and gets economics in that then
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that's a potential usurpation of a corporate opportunity I don't I I don't know the truth of that matter I'm just
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saying that's a slightly different issue to go back to uses the open a name yeah
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that that's where like the corporate opportunity becomes really explicit to go back to the point you were making a
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minute ago about the employees I just think and you use the word stealing I think it's like a really strong word I
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mean I think we have to complement the employees of this company if it is a company including Sam including Greg
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including Ilia for creating an amazing product right incred they've created something incredible absolutely and
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they've created I think an amazing ecosystem and there's a lot of developers building on top of this and I
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think no one is attacking their work and I and I think it's a little too harsh to
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say that anyone's stealing anything because they have created all the value the question and and I think you have to
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include Sam in that and say say that he's done a great job okay as CEO because they've built something amazing
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and saxs to your point right it's not stealing because very smart investors are putting in money
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Eyes Wide Open yeah I think that the criticism here is related to structure from my standpoint it's related to
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structure and whether Elon was told something at the beginning that's different it got changed and clearly it
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got changed in a way that was not consistent with the terms under which he initially contributed all this money
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yeah I mine is I I'm stating what is the most cynical interpretation of what happened here there is the most
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you know benign and benevolent interpretation you could have as well and and maybe the truth is in between
00:24:03
the two but the series of events that occur does not look good when you have a mission to give this intellectual
00:24:10
property to the world so no one person benefits from it all of humanity is supposed to benefit from it that was the
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point of being open source right then you close it now who gets the benefit if it's closed right the employes right
00:24:26
that's a good point and that's going to be the of this the EMP and and if you really want the investors the investors
00:24:31
the investors that's how they were able to attract billions of dollars because you can't get billions of dollars great
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to invest in something that's going to be open sourced and and then the employees sell two billion in
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secondary so now you if you really want to take the most cynical approach to this or interpretation again this is
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just one interpretation they took an open source project they closed it they raised money and then within the next
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two years on this incredible Innovation they sold $2 billion and put that in their pockets now those employees if it
00:25:03
was a for-profit obviously no problem with that but they took a the stated mission of giving this to all of
00:25:10
humanity and then took three or four per of that gain and put it in their pockets
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that's where I think this whole thing is going to get really crazy and this is where the IRS Point yeah and the IRS
00:25:21
also interpreted Mozilla which was just $100 million and none of the employees took
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any of it the 100 million that came out of Mozilla they were just saying like I think you should pay tax on that should
00:25:32
you pay tax on that and then they were investigated for years so I think the IRS is going to be on this like crazy
00:25:38
based upon what happened to Mozilla which was Jason do you think do you think individual employee sellers are
00:25:45
going to get audited by the IRS because of this I I don't I mean I'm know we're in Uncharted Territory here when I did
00:25:52
some tweets and said hey can everybody contact me who has information on these structures I was able to find the some
00:25:57
Source example and they did it very clean and there was no like IP transfer or employees enriching themselves or you
00:26:06
know a god king like Sam doing all kinds of deals and enriching himself it was a
00:26:11
very clean structure and then Mitchell Baker who set up Mozilla also did the same thing hey we's pay the employees an
00:26:16
extra 50k on their salaries and they'll be a little overpaid in Silicon Valley but they're not getting billions of
00:26:21
dollars in equity which again I have no problem with people getting billion dollar billions of dollars in equity in
00:26:26
a for-profit but this was supposed to benefit Humanity it was supposed to be open if this was open source and they
00:26:33
took the 2 billion I would actually not have much of a problem with it because we could all be looking at that mission
00:26:38
and then saaks and myself and Friedberg and anybody who wanted to use that code could go in there and adapt it and you
00:26:44
know what there are four profits apple and meta which are producing open- Source software so if they're producing
00:26:51
Apple's pretty competent and meta is super competent in this respect they're able to do open source but Sam is
00:26:58
claiming or open AI is claiming it's too dangerous to show us the open source code I call on that their code
00:27:04
is not too dangerous for us to see that's complete utter so you you think that there is a motivation for
00:27:10
profit basically what you're saying is essentially that this was highly motivated by
00:27:16
profit versus like even like like some of the emails the emails try to paint a picture of very
00:27:25
industrious people on both sides who are trying to solve a very hard problem and
00:27:30
dealing with a conundrum that's really around Capital right yeah we need to we need to do all this training it's going
00:27:35
to be so expensive but I think what you're saying which is a a deviation from that is actually come on guys these
00:27:41
are all very smart people and those folks saw an opportunity to make a ton of money and they took
00:27:46
it I mean that seems like what happened here to me I mean it's aam's Razer kind of situation I think they if you look at
00:27:54
it I think they probably regretted making this a nonprofit and then try to figure out a way to reverse it that's
00:27:59
actually what I think is going on here and I do think there is part of it chth you're right that they needed servers
00:28:04
and they needed capacity but they could have done that without giving the employees tons of equity without selling
00:28:10
billions of dollars keeping it Ops and source and then telling Microsoft hey if you want access to this open source or
00:28:16
whatever and you know very you're making a very very good point in and and the reason is that if it was open source
00:28:26
Microsoft could have just taken it and done its own training and just paid for it yeah or make a donation to the
00:28:33
foundation this is interesting because it's a very good point because open AI yeah open AI dropped a few of the emails
00:28:40
that they had with Elon obviously those are Cherry Picked to help their case the
00:28:44
most what we don't know is what do the other emails show like what were their alternatives to this particular
00:28:50
structure could they have raised the necessary funds in a way that was more consistent with the original Mission of
00:28:54
the company could they have remained open source for example example also are there any emails where
00:29:01
employees talk about the potential benefit to them of going private going for-profit right those emails have
00:29:10
already been leaked there was this thing where in the open AI emails that were leaked they talked about being able to
00:29:16
swap this Phantom equity and open AI into either YC equity and then Elon said oh maybe SpaceX to but I'll have to
00:29:23
figure that out well then also like Microsoft coming in and buying 4 % and then it's close this is the other piece
00:29:30
that I would want to see in Discovery as well and again I don't have any problem
00:29:34
with any of the people I love Sam M I think he's great I think all the people there are great I think what they've
00:29:38
done for Humanity is great I just think they should have kept this thing open source which was the mission but then
00:29:43
they close Source at chth and then give 49% of it all the weights all the source
00:29:49
code to Microsoft so that to me was like a really like you you want to talk about
00:29:55
taking this nonprofits IP and then it some amount of that bag gets given to the employees for billions of dollars
00:30:01
and then Microsoft gets 49% of all that nonprofits effort to then go commercialize and Microsoft has added
00:30:08
what $500 billion dollar in market cap since this whole thing has been announced so now right all that profit
00:30:14
has been aggregated into Microsoft stock and I think this is where you got to understand why Elon feels swindled is
00:30:20
because not only are we going from nonprofit to for-profit and open source to closed Source he was specifically
00:30:27
concerned about all the benefits of AI crew to one powerful big tech company now at that time he thought it was
00:30:34
Google now it's Microsoft there's not really that much of a difference he never wanted all the benefits of AI in
00:30:41
the hands of one really powerful tech company right and Microsoft is the most it's now what the biggest company in the
00:30:49
world by market cap so this is like the opposite of what he intended they gifted
00:30:52
a trillion dollars to Microsoft probably there's an easy solution if they are people of good faith and they're doing
00:30:59
this for the right reasons open source it just go back and open source it Jason but to your earlier point that may solve
00:31:06
the lawsuit and Elon may drop the lawsuit but it's opened a can of worms with respect to tax and structuring
00:31:12
that's much bigger than just open AI yeah the entire nonprofit industry it's a tax problem for every new company it's
00:31:19
every other entrepreneur that studies this model and tries to replicate it for their own personal gain even if that
00:31:24
wasn't intentional here so there's whole set of issues that we've we've really cracked the egg here we got we got to
00:31:32
figure out how to unscramble there there's the IRS issues then there's what's morally right and then there's
00:31:37
elon's beef and if it is a for-profit company and Elon put in 50 million when it was a seed round what would he own
00:31:43
saxs what would his ownership in this for profit be oh my God I mean probably 98% okay and so yeah we we need know the
00:31:53
total size of that round he put in the first 40 million do we know what other people put in it was most of the money
00:31:58
right yeah it was most of the money so I mean if you put let's just put a crazy valuation on it 500 million okay he owns
00:32:05
whatever 10% at that point at that point it it would AI was not what it is today
00:32:11
so you would have raised that like you would have raised 150 on 50 pre okay I mean that's that's the way that that
00:32:17
that a very capex intensive deal in a space that wasn't thought to yield big outcomes that's unfortunate half the
00:32:24
company at least at least right so give him 20% of the compan is $20 billion that's even half of what you're saying
00:32:30
sack right we talked about on the show and that whole fracus with these nonprofit directors went down is we said
00:32:37
go back and and restructure the whole thing to make it what it always should have been which is just a clean
00:32:43
for-profit entity give Elon his Equity give Sam his Equity because it never made sense that have Sam has no equity
00:32:50
but he's got a venture firm it's it's all so convoluted it's a weird form of compensation in which they're giving him
00:32:57
corporate opportunities in effect as like a type of compensation when really he should
00:33:02
just have compensation in the corporation and then the corporation should own all of its opportunities oh
00:33:08
that's okay that's a really interesting thing you just said so basically yeah it's like he famously has no equity but
00:33:14
then he has this retained optionality to monetize the ecosystem so even though he's not monetizing the thing he's he
00:33:21
gets to monetize everything around and it seems like the the board or at least the new board's okay with that because
00:33:27
he is being undercompensated with respect to the main thing so then he gets the side things but that's not
00:33:32
really the way it should work either you know Bill Gates said to us famously when
00:33:36
we were at when I was at Facebook the value of an ecosystem is when the economic value generated by the
00:33:42
ecosystem exceeds that of the platform now in this case you'd actually rather have 50 basis points of the ecosystem
00:33:50
than 5% of open AI if that's true because if this thing could be so revolutionary you're talking 10 2030
00:33:56
trillion dollars what a mess oo Sam should just be given like a a huge option Grant an open AI
00:34:04
but then open AI should own its own Venture fund yeah and the SEC is looking into
00:34:10
all this stuff you know they look into a lot of things in fairness but they're looking into it what a mess and uh we'll
00:34:15
keep track of it the other thing that's crazy I don't know if you guys know this
00:34:19
but Nick just as we close here the most insane part of open's LP investment agreement which is on their website you
00:34:25
can just search for open LP agreement is this part the partnership exists to advance opening ey inc's mission of
00:34:31
ensuring that safe artificial general intelligence is deployed and benefits all of humanity the general partner duty
00:34:36
to this Mission and principles advance in open aing Charter y yada y take precedent over the obligation to
00:34:42
generate a profit the partnership may never make a profit and the general partner is under no obligation to do so
00:34:46
the general partner is free to reinvest any and all of the operating entities cash flow into research and development
00:34:52
activities Andor related expenses without any obligation to the limited partners and so they basically told
00:34:59
everybody venod and employees or whatever we can just basically make wipe your Equity out and we can do whatever
00:35:04
we want with the profits and you're probably going to lose your money so this this structure is weird do you guys
00:35:10
think that when the investors came in especially in this latest round the $86 billion round do you think they
00:35:17
underwrote the legal risk inherit in the structure or they just sort of handwaved
00:35:23
over it and said no typically what happens in these deals is you hire somebody like KPMG or deoe
00:35:32
or ernston young to do like the full Financial diligence packet right and that typically tends to be how a lot of
00:35:38
late stage organizations document that they've done and manage their fiduciary responsibilities on behalf of their
00:35:45
limited partners so what happens is you will do a deal you'll sign a term sheet you'll turn it over to deoe you'll turn
00:35:52
it over to KPMG and say please go and run this down and and then what they do is they will furnish a report that says
00:35:59
yes this meets all the customary expectations I suspect that if these folks were
00:36:05
doing a decent job of of running late stage money they probably sent it to those folks and those folks probably
00:36:13
produced something that said this looks fine now if you read Buffett's letter this year he has a really great
00:36:20
commentary on deoe and KPMG and these sorts of letters which is not exactly the most supportive is the best way to
00:36:29
say it you can find that mention in in his case it's deot and touch but typically Sachs that's what they do they
00:36:34
go to a KPMG or a deloid or a nurse and young and say and and by and by the way 99% of the time they're I mean they do
00:36:42
really good work but it's a standard structure and they just want to make sure that nothing nefarious is a muck in
00:36:49
this case I doubt anything was a muck anyways I doubt though that they looked at the structure and then also elevated
00:36:56
the the litigation risk of this getting Unwound I just don't see that that diligence report and I've seen enough of
00:37:01
them typically has that section in it the other thing that's completely hypocritical here is
00:37:09
they said when they hit AGI and they're going to be like a sentient artificial intelligent going on here Friedberg that
00:37:17
they would wrap up shop and they're going to no longer be a non nonprofit Etc but they haven't and but they're
00:37:22
claiming they haven't hit that but they closed the soft so it should be open source if they haven't
00:37:28
hit AGI and you don't think they've hit general intelligence right free barg or anything
00:37:35
close to it maybe you could educate the audience on what that is and and that claim that they have to shut off the for
00:37:41
profit yeah they haven't but I think the we keep repeating this concept of the models should be open source versus
00:37:51
closed Source making AI for the benefit of humanity can be interpreted in a lot of ways there may have been some
00:37:56
anecdotal conversation at some point with Elon or others about we're going to make the models open
00:38:02
source uh but there was a reason that that change was made along the way which was to attract dollars and those dollars
00:38:12
need to have some return of capital available to them because they're private investor dollars and so I don't
00:38:19
think that that was necessarily and correct me if I'm wrong I don't think that's in the mission that the open AI
00:38:24
software models will be open source making AI for the benefit of humanity could probably be interpreted in a lot
00:38:30
of different ways and we'll see but no I I don't think that anyone has this achieved
00:38:38
this Holy Grail of general intelligence yeah I think one of the the one of the more interesting and kind of wacky
00:38:47
things about open AI is that their mission is explicitly to create AGI which most people would associate
00:38:56
with some sort of sci-fi dystopian outcome and I think this has like raised the Fear Factor around AI because
00:39:04
they're explicitly trying to create the sence that's going to replace Humanity now I think they defined AGI in a
00:39:11
different way they say it's something that can replace 80% of the jobs but I think we all kind of know what it really
00:39:18
is so I just wonder if I think I think that that's like that assumes a steady state in the world so if you end up with
00:39:27
a system and the system has all the capabilities of a bunch of really highly qualified knowledge workers and I can
00:39:36
sit in front of a computer terminal and I can say let's design a mission to Mars
00:39:41
a mission to Mars could be a 20-year engineering project with hundreds of people involved to design the buildings
00:39:47
to design the flight path to figure out the fuel needs to figure out how you would then be able to terraform ours and
00:39:53
what if one person could interact with a computer and design a plan to go and inhabit Mars all of the technical detail
00:40:00
docks could be produced all of the engineering specifications could be generated all of the operating plans all
00:40:05
of the dates the amount of Labor needed the amount of production needed the amount of capital needed what would
00:40:10
otherwise take NASA or some you know International or well-funded private company many many decades to do a piece
00:40:17
of software could do in a very short order I think that's like a really like for me poignant example of the potential
00:40:25
of having these tools broadly available that the potential of humanity starts to
00:40:30
become much broader we could say I want to develop a city underneath the ocean because I want to explore more of the
00:40:36
earth I I think humans need to go go solve cancer figure out the biologic drugs and the combination of biologic
00:40:42
drugs that would be needed to solve cancer based on this this patient's genotype the extensibility of Highly
00:40:49
knowledgeable or what other people might call general intelligence type tooling is extraordinary that one individual
00:40:55
starts to have an entire cohort of knowledge workers available at their disposal to do things
00:41:02
that we can't even imagine today so I don't think that it is nefarious it's nefarious because we assume a steady
00:41:07
state of the world today that nothing changes therefore a piece of software replaces all of us but the potential of
00:41:13
humanity starts to stretch into a new era that we're not really comfortable with because we don't really know know
00:41:18
it or understand it yet I'm not saying it's nefarious to uh want to develop AI because I agree with you about all
00:41:25
the extraordinary potential of but I'm saying there's something a little bit cultish and weird about explicitly
00:41:31
devoting yourself to AGI which I think in common parlance means Skynet yeah it mean
00:41:40
you maybe that that parlance is what needs to be addressed which is Agi effectively enables equivalence to a a
00:41:47
human knowledge worker and that you know that can kind of unleash a new kind of set of opportunities you think that's
00:41:54
what it is my definition for AGI is smarter than the smartest human being who ever lived yeah I was talking to
00:41:59
somebody this week who's in a position who said the definition of AGI is very fuzzy that there isn't a clear
00:42:05
definition and therefore it allows every side to kind of anchor on their interpretation of what that term means
00:42:11
and therefore kind of justifies their position so you know I don't really feel great about like just saying are we at
00:42:17
AGI what is it we don't have a clear sense of what it means I do think if you look at some of the work that was done
00:42:22
by anthropic and published in the cloud 3 Model this week did any of you guys see the demos that were done of the
00:42:27
output of that model there was a guy who wrote a thesis in quantum physics on a very esoteric complicated problem set
00:42:34
and he asked Claude 3 to solve this problem set and it came up with his thesis it was really like extraordinary
00:42:40
and this is something he's like no one in the world knows this stuff and he's like I can't believe this model like
00:42:45
came up with my thesis and that's the sort of thing that very few people on Earth even read or understand and the
00:42:52
cloud 3 Model was able to kind of recreate the basis the buildup and then the the the output of his desent was
00:42:59
somebody writing a screenplay and then giving it the first two acts and say guess the third act and it's like oh
00:43:03
yeah this is the third act here's what happens like it's pretty impressive comp ask you like deep down
00:43:09
when these guys say they're going to create AGI what do you think they really mean in their heart of hearts oh they
00:43:16
mean the Terminator yeah they mean the sentient God you guys are you guys are propagating some bad you guys shouldn't
00:43:22
be I think that's what they think said it remember what Larry paage said to Elon don't be
00:43:29
speciest yeah I think there's like I think there's a meaningful number of people in The Tech Community who
00:43:36
deliberately want to give rise to the super intelligence there's another point of view of super intelligence where
00:43:41
super intelligence means that the software is now more intelligent than all humans and as a result the software
00:43:48
may have its own motivations to figure out how to supersede humans on earth now the the Larry Page statement which which
00:43:56
I I don't know firsthand I read the same article you did is one that a group of people might say evolution is
00:44:03
evolution you know people that's right and I know elon's taken this point of view that like you know we need to
00:44:10
maintain human human Supremacy but uh my my favorite test is you know there was there's the Turing test which like you
00:44:19
can't tell if it's a human or if it's a robot but Mustafa came up with the um with the modern touring test which is an
00:44:25
AI mod is given $100,000 and has to obtain 1 million go it's kind of interesting then the other other the
00:44:32
other interesting one was Gary Marcus he said uh the Ikea test the flat pack Furniture test an AI views the parts and
00:44:40
instructions of an Ikea flat pack product that controls a robot to assemble the furniture correctly oh look
00:44:47
what's up sunny it's now time to do a just a quick little congratulations to our dear friend Sund deep mandra we call
00:44:54
him Sunny that's his nickname and he's one of our poker buddies he keeps building great
00:44:59
companies and in this case sandep is the first person to collect all four besties
00:45:04
we all invested in his company definitive and definitive uh was working in AI but we got some great news this
00:45:11
week and we thought we would give him his flowers Sunny you want to tell us what happened this week with our
00:45:17
investment in your company definitive intelligence at definitive doio I believe is your demand yeah well you
00:45:24
know with your guys support and you know we've been growing our company and we saw a really great opportunity to work
00:45:30
together with grock and we've been working with them for a couple of months and all the hype that you've seen has
00:45:35
been built on the collaboration that we've done building the cloud offering the API offerings and so you know we've
00:45:41
decided to merge with them and we're super excited and all the besties are now not only shareholders in definitive
00:45:48
previously but now shareholders in Gro this is this is the first investment I think where we're all on the cap table
00:45:54
right so we can we're all rooting in the same Direction what's happening in the developer site how's the momentum going
00:45:59
well the the momentum is incredible you know we have now 16,000 plus developers in our you know self- served playground
00:46:07
there's well over like a thousand apps that people have developed using the API and all kinds of new functionality you
00:46:14
know the API allows people to get a higher rate of throughput on tokens and low latency so there all kinds of new
00:46:20
applications from voice to real-time translation of web pages you know we're collecting on our Discord we have you
00:46:27
know 3,000 people in the Discord as well it is a real Community that's come together building around Gro and what I
00:46:33
will say is you know sort of the same jump that developers saw when we went from dialup internet to broadband
00:46:38
they're seeing that now and from using like traditional apis for llms to using you know the ones that we offer you guys
00:46:46
support the latest anthropic models that they just launched that seem pretty kickass no we don't have those yet but
00:46:52
we're we're in you know we're having discussions with everyone out there there and we want to support their
00:46:57
models right now what we've done given all the demand is we've kind of limited it to llama 270b and mix trol and we
00:47:03
actually have a bunch of other models that we make available in private mode for folks we're pretty excited but if
00:47:08
there's anyone out there that wants to have us you know give us a call and we'll we'll get you going on our systems
00:47:13
well Sunny congrats to you you're an incredible entrepreneur and it's always fun to kind of be on the
00:47:22
journey with you this is my fourth business that I've done with sunny madra that's amazing extreme lands then there
00:47:29
was a company between no no no there was before you have to understand sunny and
00:47:33
I met because Sunny went to school where I grew up he went to the University of Ottawa I grew up there and we met
00:47:38
through a mutual friend and his first company was called sponge fish which I backed I think in 2006
00:47:46
maybe I mean I had no money I may have written a 0,000 10K maybe maybe less May 5K yeah I
00:47:54
mean whatever I had I didn't have much I like it's scraped together and it's it's
00:47:57
our fourth business Sunny's a veritable rabbit's foot you're a rabbit's foot sun
00:48:02
he is he is a lot Lu prefers the prepared well I mean I've been in two of Sund Deep's companies and uh I thank him
00:48:11
for that and then extreme Labs actually to to thank you again you sponsored a lot of my events 10 years ago when I was
00:48:17
coming up so I appreciate that so it's just great to see a nice guy win as opposed to the three miserable people
00:48:23
who I work with on this podcast keep winning so it's good now finally a good guy wins as opposed to the four of us I
00:48:28
appreciate all your guys support it means a lot to us you guys getting the developers and keep keep putting it out
00:48:35
there and and keep us honest as well so if we're not doing something right let us know really appreciate you guys all s
00:48:40
you want to say something motivational to sunny here I know you always have a great motivational word for your friends
00:48:47
something you say that just gives people that thrill of being in the game go ahead sax you always have something say
00:48:53
we're going to we're going to ship uh 20 million into your a safe note I know you
00:48:56
closed it but we're going to pry it open and uh get get some get some allocation
00:49:01
hey wait a second if you're prying open that's safe if the safe if there's a wedge I know a guy with a podcast who
00:49:08
could got 800,000 followers maybe I could slip in a quick five hundy is there possible what do you think Cy let
00:49:13
us know right now I don't know we we did a really big announcement with the Saudis this week so that price might be
00:49:18
up let us ship something into that safe note so we actually have some real skin in the game David text me all right
00:49:23
we'll do well no but seriously hey s wait a second if he I got to get a second Jason wants in for 500 by that he
00:49:30
means $500 so we'll let you no I got a gift card for you from Starbucks I got a $500 gift card for you and the team I
00:49:37
think I got likeon that that Starbucks gift card you sell for 20 cents in the dollar and then
00:49:43
ship let me zip it in let me zip it in maybe I can 100 Exit no seriously 500k from from your boy jcal all right
00:49:48
everybody thanks uh to Sunny for jumping on congratulations on the mder thanks guys all right issue two issue two apple
00:49:56
is battling two major iOS developers and Regulators are siding with the devs you
00:50:02
may know about the Apple versus epic gam Saga we've talked about it here epic games was planning to create a custom
00:50:08
App Store on iOS because Europe's dma the the digital markets act has said that Apple now has to allow thirdparty
00:50:16
app stores in the EU so epic created a developer account based in Sweden and apple actually approved the account two
00:50:23
weeks ago then on Wednesday Apple flipped terminated epic EU developer account and
00:50:28
app said one of the reasons they terminated the account was because epic CEO publicly criticized their dma
00:50:34
compliance plan additionally on Monday Apple was fined two billion by the eu's antitrust regulators and was forced to
00:50:41
remove its anti- steering rules uh from music apps like Spotify basically Apple has been restricting music apps from
00:50:47
informing users about pricing and discounts and the European commission considered this anti-competitive since
00:50:53
Apple runs Apple music and they want Spotify to pay 30% Daniel e friend of the Pod you know basically did a whole video
00:51:03
on this about how they can't charge 30% more yada yada sax you've uh spoken about Apple's Monopoly before your
00:51:10
thoughts on what's happening in the EU and then we'll get into Apple's wider problems I mean did you just say that
00:51:18
Apple booted Epic from their app store because they didn't like what epic said about them I think
00:51:26
well like they're violating epic's Free Speech because they don't like what epic
00:51:30
is saying I mean according to Epic yes this is crazy heavy-handed by apple apple heavy-handed with developers yeah
00:51:38
have they lost their minds I mean this is right out of power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely yeah
00:51:43
I mean whatever dispute you have with epic you don't boot them out of your app store because you don't like their
00:51:48
criticism of you I mean this is basically proving exactly what everyone's been saying about Apple which
00:51:55
is they're too powerful and heavy-handed and Apple's coming along and saying let
00:52:00
me confirm it for you guys by acting tyrannically against epic exactly I mean talk about a backfire this seems insane
00:52:07
to me yeah it's super nuts chamat any that'ss on this before we get into Apple's other problems I think it's the
00:52:15
beginning of of the decay of Apple Peak Apple well let's let's get into that um there's tons of headwinds facing Apple
00:52:22
you can add a bunch of other things to the list as well Jason yeah the thing is Apple for the last couple of years has
00:52:28
been what is effectively what we call a GDP plus Growth Company which means that
00:52:34
take GDP 2 3 4% maybe they can grow by a couple of percentage points more than that but they are effectively levered to
00:52:41
GDP meaning when you look at a Facebook or an Nvidia they're growing at 50% 200%
00:52:47
2,000% whatever it is that's not tied to GDP they're just taking share but Apple
00:52:53
is is a company now that grows as the as the economy of the world growth so that's not super great for its future
00:52:58
prospects unless it can expand the surface area of where they operate and then on that Dimension the there are a
00:53:06
few trillion dollar markets that they can really penetrate and they just announced that they've killed a project
00:53:11
in one of those areas which is Autos right project Titan which was1 billion turned out to be a
00:53:17
failure so all of these things I think mean to me that it is effectively becoming a cyclical rate sensitive stock
00:53:27
and then the Cuda is Warren Buffett and Nick and I were talking about it this week and what was
00:53:33
interesting about Buffett's letter is that you can tell when Buffett has gotten disengaged with a company based
00:53:42
on the number of times he mentions it in his annual letter so in this example this is the number of times Apple was
00:53:49
mentioned and just to be clear what I mean by mentions is not when it's included in a chart or part of a
00:53:54
disclosure what I mean is when Warren actually explicitly mentions it in a positive or even negative way or he
00:54:01
doesn't mention it at all which I think Rings very loudly he went from basically
00:54:06
saying Apple was the absolute endall and Beall and now what you can start to see
00:54:13
is this shrinking and it's gone from basically a bunch of times to almost none he did mention it once but he
00:54:19
mentioned it in the context of talking positively about Coca-Cola and AMX and he Wasing these two positions but just
00:54:26
mentioning that they were not as large in comparison to Apple that's the only mention in this year's annual letter
00:54:33
what's interesting about that is the last time that that happened was with drum roll Wells Fargo over 15 and 20
00:54:39
years Buffett built up a huge position I think he was able to weather the vicissitudes of the market so even
00:54:48
when the markets would contract he knew when to hold on to that company until he
00:54:52
realized that that company was not really one of his forever stocks and he got out of it and the number of times it
00:55:00
basically was mentioned in his letter went to zero so interestingly I think this Buffet index is a really important
00:55:08
one for Apple which is it went from a forever holding that he said he would own forever to barely getting mentioned
00:55:15
and above him on above apple on that list were all the Japanese trading companies that Buffett owns American
00:55:22
Express Coca-Cola so that is a person that understands the economy I think better than anybody else
00:55:28
in the world and so if you're basically taking a lever bet to the economy as a reason to own apple and the person that
00:55:35
understands the economy the most has now started to Pivot away he started to sell
00:55:40
in quarter four and then you see all of these things Anti-Trust rules killing projects in in trillion dollar Tams
00:55:47
unfortunately it speaks for a very bad next 5 to 10 years for this company unless they figure something out I think
00:55:53
it's just such a great insight with the Warren Buffett mentions and we should do
00:55:57
that forward looking like who is he talking about now and let the monitor when he stops talking about them I have
00:56:02
a theory about this I think this is really just about Peak iPhone if you look at the majority of their revenue
00:56:08
it's obviously from the iPhone which has become massively profitable over time but the iPhone Revenue has been flat for
00:56:15
a couple of years now and they're starting to make their money from Services everybody knows Apple 1 iCloud
00:56:22
storage Apple arcade Apple music apple plus TV they've got a great collection of services and services revenues
00:56:28
growing but I don't think that they are filling in this growth problem with the iPhone and this happened to me for the
00:56:35
first time and I don't know if you gentlemen have had the same experience but I was buying every Apple phone and
00:56:40
then I would buy every like M medium upgrade like when they would do like a 12 and then a 12s or an 11 11s and when
00:56:48
I got to iPhone 13 I was like this thing's kind of peaked and I just forgot to buy the 14 didn't need it and then I
00:56:54
bought the 15 and I'm sitting here with my 15 and my 13 I really couldn't tell the difference between them and so now
00:56:58
I'm a technologist who would buy it every year the latest one and I don't feel the need to upgrade it and I think
00:57:05
that a lot of people and I I have family members who would take two generations off now they take three or four
00:57:10
generations off so I don't even know what number I'm on you know I don't even know either it all looks the same to me
00:57:16
okay so I mean that's the problem here and then if you look at their road map what's what is the device post the Steve
00:57:24
Jobs era that they have launched how do you know what device you have you go to General in your settings and about I
00:57:31
just checked it I'm iPhone 13 Pro what version are they on what is it General they're on 15 and I'm on 13 Pro I don't
00:57:37
even know yeah and you're not price sensitive yeah and these things have gotten absurdly expensive so they're
00:57:43
trying to really extract what is the what is the latest 15 15 I'm on a 14 I don't like the hassle of having to like
00:57:51
reset everything when I get a new phone and it's easy to do now it's like all in
00:57:55
the cloud but even that going to the store buying it like who cares it's not my apps I have to relog in and freeberg
00:58:02
what uh what what Android phone are you on are you you're a googler didn't the googlers all have Android phones or are
00:58:08
you an your team iPhone I got the Macintosh original in 1984 I've only been on MacIntosh and
00:58:15
Apple product since then H what iPhone are you on be honest 15 Pro okay have you ever tried a pixel
00:58:24
freeb I don't like it but I just I'm not used to the OS I just what was the rule at Google if you
00:58:31
worked at Google did were you kind of forced to have an Android phone or did you just keep your iPhone in your pocket
00:58:37
and not take out there weren't a lot of Androids on the market when I was at Google because we acquired the company
00:58:43
when I was there in O we acquired Andy Ruben's company in 04 and I think the first major devices
00:58:53
started to roll out in 7 and so this was all post my era I left at the end of 06 wow freeberg that's an amazing chart
00:59:02
holy so pull up this chart now here's the global here's the global statistics the US market share is 57% for iOS but
00:59:10
on a global basis iOS only has a 27% market share in uh mobile operating systems Android is 72% and all other is
00:59:21
less than 1% but look at this it's all the future GDP is on Android Brazil Nigeria India holy but I think this is
00:59:30
one counter to your point shamat that the macro driver is as um the economic uh position the GDP per capita scales in
00:59:39
these bricks Nations they can start to afford to buy iPhones which are generally some multiple of the Android
00:59:46
devices in these markets that you see here so while today Android is 72% of the market if the Emerging Markets
00:59:53
continue to grow GDP capita and iOS continues to be the superior product you'll see apple able to to steal into
01:00:00
more share over time how do you but how do you do that when you have messaging groups on Android when you have photos
01:00:06
in Google photos and is it does the switching cost stop that do you think I don't know the answer to that it's a
01:00:12
good question they're down to5 to $25 for these Android phones in India there's a famous that's the difference
01:00:20
right so these Android devices I think apple is levered to GDP Global GDP so they need to figure out some way to grow
01:00:26
Superior to that is the market what could they do Services a company that generally has a bunch of cash flow being
01:00:36
generated by some set of products today and you assume stasis over time the market share for those products could be
01:00:43
eaten away you'll see the profits per year go down and a company like that will trade anywhere from you know 7 to
01:00:49
20 times the technology value arises from the value of the brand that you can launch new products lever your brand
01:00:55
leverage your distribution leverage the sale of new services and new products I think to your point shim off the
01:01:01
challenge apple is facing is that the pool of options the portfolio of call options that you would get a new product
01:01:09
coming out of apple is shrinking very Lim with the you know with the car being taken out of that pool now Apple Vision
01:01:15
Pro a lot of question marks on you know how much it can scale as you guys know I
01:01:19
I feel like there's going to be a market for that device but it's a it's a high-end device today it has to become
01:01:25
more cheap to be more ubiquitous the thing that a lot of these companies confront though is that you can also
01:01:30
grow inorganically right you don't necessarily have to incubate these projects we can remember the moment
01:01:36
Apple had a chance to buy Tesla right didn't then they didn't take it Apple still has a chance to buy pick
01:01:44
your company that that would take a sweet acquisition offer rivan Lucid postar whatever it is I'm not saying
01:01:51
that these companies are good or not good I'm just saying that Apple has the one tool that they've never used in
01:01:57
their toolbox is the large inorganic acquisition and at this point if they are proving that they can't execute
01:02:05
internally the market is going to demand that they prove they can use that balance sheet as a cudgel to go and
01:02:11
execute it externally yeah I think the challenge do that they're GNA discount that cash to zero the challenge is that
01:02:18
there's a certain discipline and quality to the products and the businesses that
01:02:23
apple produc es and runs and it's very hard to see that in other markets I mean why would they go buy a money losing low
01:02:30
margin Hardware uh car hardware company when they are proven to make you know quality on the reasons project tipan
01:02:38
fil yeah the article in Bloomberg basically said that the reason that they abandoned the project was in part that
01:02:47
they did not know how to go from where they were to a full production vehicle that could be level five and then when
01:02:54
it was proposed that they step down and just launch a level three autonomous vehicle everybody said no that it wasn't
01:03:00
disruptive enough well if that's the case the the thing that they made a decision about there was not going into
01:03:06
a market because of Regulation not because of technical capability and I don't think that that's
01:03:11
necessarily a smart decision they would have been better off going into the car market launching a level three vehicle
01:03:17
and just letting the market play out they probably just like they were able to do music have the influence to change
01:03:22
the laws yeah especially if they stepped in there with their rigor right and they
01:03:27
they're not doing that so it's a little bit of a head scratch of what's going on
01:03:30
over there they need some new products I mean maybe Apple Vision Pro someday becomes the platform of the future but
01:03:36
they've squeezed as much revenue as they can out of the iPhone Services seems like the best place for them to make
01:03:41
money but as we see my idea under assault yeah my idea was just that they should launch a huge competitor to AWS
01:03:49
as Ur and gcp so if you look every developer that Apple has theoretically could have been running on an Apple not
01:03:57
just on Apple's SDK and apis but they should be running in an Apple Cloud you could have made that claim and it would
01:04:02
have made a ton of sense for app developers to have TurnKey access to that right and they could have
01:04:07
subsidized it and by the way to Sax's point that would have been an incredible way to defend a 30% rev share okay
01:04:13
listen I'm taking 30% but here's a bunch of subsidized access to hardware and the
01:04:17
market would have loved it and in this AI shift they can still do that where now people are chipping away at the 30%
01:04:25
right people are saying well I can just build around you they need to do something and service is Jason the most
01:04:33
valuable thing they could do would be to launch a big cloud I think yeah I mean they have all the app developers on test
01:04:38
flight ready to go they just email them and say hey here's your free storage I mean they could just slowly add features
01:04:44
right and they're they're doing this uh open source I think it's called Maggie or Magpie or something but they're doing
01:04:51
an image one and uh well look if they could if they could just make Siri work like the way it was supposed to using an
01:04:58
llm and have it be like Snappy that'd be a major upgrade to the iPhone I don't think you need to buy a new iPhone for
01:05:05
that because it would just be a software upgrade but just getting Siri to work would be a big win I think that's where
01:05:12
they're going with their silicon and they just announced the M3 on the MacBook airs like they're making their
01:05:17
own silicon and I think it's going to power llms locally on the devices and that's so powerful I was using I photo
01:05:24
this week and in apple photos there's now on certain images if you swipe through them you'll see the little AI
01:05:31
icon when you click it it tells you things in the photo like that's a bulldog that's pasta and so they're
01:05:38
already subtly adding these features now that's a feature Google's had in Google
01:05:42
photos for five years but go ahead and open your phone right now and search for a dog or a bulldog or whatever type of
01:05:48
dog you got you know uh Labrador and then watch golden retriever that it actually knows how to do it they never
01:05:54
announced it it's just subtly being put in there uh so there's so many opportunities if they required a
01:06:00
hardware upgrade to get like actually good AI built into the software then everyone's going to have to upgrade for
01:06:06
that that's a pretty big motivation to upgrade there you have it Tim Cook somebody send this clip to Tim Cook put
01:06:13
put AI chips on your uh phone this isn't hard right I mean all they got to do is
01:06:17
just take the latest open source models and figure out how to customize them for
01:06:21
their own products yeah and they're doing it doing it right now all right let's go to Issue four Tik Tock
01:06:27
bipartisan ban will the CCP agree a bipartisan group of a dozen plus lawmakers introduced a bill that would
01:06:35
effectively ban Tik Tock in the house this week the bill is officially called the protecting Americans from foreign
01:06:40
adversary controlled applications act gives bite dance 165 days to divest from Tik Tok that's the parent company the
01:06:47
Chinese company that owns Tik Tok the app that's very popular in the west especially here in America it would make
01:06:53
it legal for companies like Apple and Google to show Tik Tok in their app stores as you know Tik Tok 170 million
01:07:00
us users and they claim that they're headquartered headquartered in Singapore I know people who have worked at Tik Tok
01:07:06
or do work at Tik Tok and they said that's nonsense to me the company said it has not and will not share user data
01:07:14
with the CCP in my mind it's an obvious lie in 20121 the CCP took a board seat on bite dance Beijing based subsidiary
01:07:22
that's according to Reuters and then in 2022 by dance admitted that it accessed IP addresses and data by journalists
01:07:28
covering Tik Tok to see if they'd been in the same places as B Dan employees obviously to find leakers and by Dan
01:07:34
claims they fired the people involved y yada last year a former head of engineering at by Dan us said CCP
01:07:39
members had god mode access to user data in 2018 sax um I can go explain more of
01:07:45
this but I just got to go to you here if this if bite dance is not spying on Americans and the CCP is on the board
01:07:54
that would be make no logical sense to me and why are they fighting the divestiture if it's just a financial
01:08:00
reason why would they take the CCP off their board do you think it's spyware do you think the US is crazy for allowing
01:08:05
this product here in the United States when we're not allowed to put Twitter Facebook Instagram pick your social
01:08:12
network in China we have zero reciprocity here look if it's true that Tik Tok is sharing data with the CCP
01:08:21
then I think the United States is well within rights to either ban it or cause it to be divested and I personally like
01:08:29
the divesture option I mean that's what Trump was suggesting during his term because we don't I think in the United
01:08:34
States like to just essentially confiscate or destroy people's property but I think we're
01:08:41
within our rights to require to be divested to an entity that we know is completely separate from and won't
01:08:48
cooperate with the CCP this bill is a better is better than the last bill we talked about that was
01:08:55
targeted at Tik Tok I don't know if you remember that one but it was weirdly prohibiting Americans from using VPN and
01:09:03
gave the government the right to go after Americans who are using VPN so this one seems cleaner and better and
01:09:09
more narrowly targeted at divesture now at the beginning of my response to you I
01:09:15
did say if you know I know that everyone's just assuming that it's true that Tik Tok is sharing data with the
01:09:24
CCP but I just want to confirm that that is the case because they are denying it
01:09:29
and I can understand why people think it and why it might even be likely but since we do have a concept of due
01:09:35
process in America I do think some evidence should be provided that that actually is taking place well we've had
01:09:43
you know whistleblowers inside there but chth if the CCP is spying on their own citizens what are the chances that they
01:09:49
wouldn't take the opportunity to spy on government officials who have Tik Tok on
01:09:53
their phone or their kids and get comprom mod on them possibly or no locations of people what does your gut
01:10:01
tell you is a CCP is this too dangerous for us to have here in America under CCP
01:10:05
control or this kind of influence being on their board I think you're asking the
01:10:10
exact right question I have two comments to make one is Nick if you can bring up this article
01:10:19
about the Google AI IP case basically what happened was that doj filed an indictment actually I think I sent I I
01:10:30
think I sent you guys the actual indictment but essentially what happened is there was an engineer at Google that
01:10:37
has been charged crazy that has been charged with stealing AI secrets for China and I don't know if whether he's
01:10:44
back in China now or not but the whole point is that if it's happened at Google right where there's a motivation for the
01:10:53
Chinese intelligence apparatus and frankly every intelligence apparatus to infiltrate that organization and get
01:10:59
access to all kinds of data I think we should presume by default that all of these organizations
01:11:07
are infiltrated and I think that that's probably a more conservative and reasonable posture so Facebook is
01:11:13
infiltrated Google is infiltrated apple is infiltrated Tik Tok is infiltrated so
01:11:19
on that Dimension I think that it should be considered 100% certainty that this data is getting back to not just the
01:11:27
Chinese but multiple state sponsored actors so the question about Tik Tok then I think should be one of business
01:11:35
and I think Paul mer lucky did a very good job of simplifying this down to its Essence which is essentially what he
01:11:42
called The Law of Equivalent Exchange if you want to just play this it's like just a few seconds I was kind of
01:11:46
frustrated that people made Tik talk into a cultural issue by the way I'm totally on the culture War side of it uh
01:11:53
but but but but I was saying practically speaking you should not make this a culture War issue don't talk about how
01:11:59
it's ruining our you's ideals just say strictly on a trade basis yes we cannot allow them to sell this thing to us if
01:12:08
we can't sell the same thing to them like that that should be totally fair that's reciprocity that's reciprocity me
01:12:14
and Palmer lucky and Sy right so this is what he calls the Law of Equivalent Exchange and I think it just makes a lot
01:12:19
of sense so on the face what I would say is Jal my response is I think that the CCP but also other intelligence
01:12:26
organizations have infiltrated all of these big companies and all of our data is accessible by them I'm not going to
01:12:34
say on a whim but I think it's accessible I think you have to deal with Tik Tok as a business issue and I agree
01:12:40
with Palmer lucky which is they should not be able to sell to us what we cannot sell to them and I think that that's a
01:12:45
fair principle that we can live on Resto is a very simple position freedberg let
01:12:51
me use your creativity Your Love of Cinema if you were to use this tool let's take the most cynical
01:12:58
approach here or interpretation CCP has complete access to the algorithms and they want to do maximum damage let's say
01:13:05
during the election let's say in a conflict like the one going on in Ukraine with Russia or in
01:13:14
Gaza what could they do using the algorithm using videos what would be the Doomsday scenario for America as in the
01:13:23
C CP comes in and influences the management of this company and tells them what to tweak and how and why yes
01:13:29
content what would they do I think we saw this during after October 7th that there was a significant surge
01:13:40
in Pro Hamas videos relative to Israel support videos that's the sort of thing where you could kind of see something
01:13:49
that sets an opinion that maybe disruptive to the social fabric to the election cycle that
01:13:57
starts to get shared more frequently and show shows up in feeds more frequently unlike Facebook and other places where
01:14:03
there's a linear feed where you can scroll up and select what you want to watch as you know Tik Tok has already
01:14:08
lined the videos up so when you scroll up they've they automatically play the next thing for you so the ranking really
01:14:14
matters in terms of viewership uh on Tik Tok unlike a lot of other kind of Select
01:14:19
to playay social media type sh an election hearts and Minds in a war well I've always said this I think it's the
01:14:27
craziest thing in the world that someone can spend advertising dollars and change someone's vote like
01:14:34
that like just think about that fact for a second I mean I've said this before and people have told me I'm an idiot for
01:14:39
saying it but meaning that you can or that it does that you that both that that that think about it like like people
01:14:47
don't individually go and gather data and then make an informed opinion about who they're going to vote for their opin
01:14:53
changes based on seeing an ad it is so crazy to me that that's the truth I think the I think the country knew that
01:14:59
it does that's why they prevented it from happening until yeah exactly but I mean I think
01:15:05
that's what's so nuts is that there's no longer a forced discourse that kind of makes people go out and choose what
01:15:14
content they want to consume what they want to hear debate stages Etc that now it's about who spends the most money to
01:15:20
get the most views in front of someone and that that actually influences someone's decision on who to vote for is
01:15:25
what's so compelling to me about why all of these systems have such extraordinary
01:15:30
power it's just so amazing to me that the more frequently someone sees an ad the more likely they are to buy
01:15:35
something or do something here's the bottom line this the more frequently you show someone a
01:15:40
AIC on Tik Tok the more likely they are to vote something differently this thing
01:15:44
is far too powerful for the CCP to have any kind of access to it for the Chinese
01:15:49
government to have any kind of access to it it has to be divested if you look at
01:15:53
what we went through in the last couple of election Cycles not being partisan here at all but we've said and we've
01:15:59
talked about Hunter Biden's laptop as but one example you know that was suppressed obviously on social networks
01:16:05
that could have been Amplified in social networks and it could have had the opposite effect Hillary Clinton's emails
01:16:10
you know Trump this Hillary this Biden that you you could really sway an election by putting in specific subtle
01:16:19
information let alone taking a hack and relasing it like they did with Hillary Clinton's email so you know those things
01:16:26
might not have swayed an election but sax if Putin had access to this like somebody who's super capable and he had
01:16:32
access always where it goes no I just secretly pulling the strings of our election okay Iran this is like the
01:16:40
biggest threat inflation ever okay look if you ask if you ask people out there do you think other people's votes are
01:16:49
influenced by social media they'll say yeah of course people are brainwashed if you say to them is your own vote
01:16:54
influenced by social media do you make up your own mind based on all the information you have they'll say yeah of
01:17:00
course I'm not brainwashed everybody else is and I I believe that people are closer to telling the truth when they're
01:17:06
talking about themselves because they understand their own situation better than they understand everyone else's
01:17:11
situation the fact of the matter is that all of us are constantly bombarded with
01:17:16
information 24 hours a day 7 days a week through all of the channels both online
01:17:21
and offline where we get information some of those data points come from advertisements but I don't think we take
01:17:28
ads very seriously we're trained to kind of even just block out the ads when I see banner ads or even ads in my stream
01:17:35
I just like scroll past them they don't even factor in my Consciousness I am influenced by accounts that I follow but
01:17:45
there are accounts I've chosen to follow because I think they have signal over noise and the more noisy those accounts
01:17:50
are the more I disregard them and and take them them less seriously with advertisements being the most noisy and
01:17:57
least useful channels so look I think at the end of the day this idea that we're
01:18:00
all being brainwashed and secretly influenced by malign foreign actors I think is at a minimum threat inflation
01:18:07
and that entire narrative might just be completely bogus nonetheless I do agree that for data
01:18:16
collection reasons and reciprocity reasons I think it's like I said we're within our rights to require the
01:18:23
divestment of of Tik Tok I you know s you don't make this into more than it is again I think this whole disinformation
01:18:31
narrative by the way you want to know why they push it so hard it's because our own intelligence Community wants to
01:18:38
be involved and there are political actors in the US who want to regulate quote disinformation on our own social
01:18:46
networks and I'm not talking about Tik Tok I'm talking about X I'm talking about Facebook insta and so on and we
01:18:51
saw this in the Twitter files we saw what a cozy relationship the intelligence Community had with Twitter
01:18:57
they were all up in there trying to control what Legacy Twitter was allowing URL they blocked the New York
01:19:06
Post URL and you've said on this program that you believe that could have swung the election well I think it was that I
01:19:12
think that actually was genuine election interference I actually said I didn't know whether it could swing the election
01:19:17
I think that you think could have I think it was a story that deserve be publ published so that and
01:19:25
distributed online so that the public could take that into account when they voted I mean and so if it had been
01:19:31
widely received do you think I'm asking a question not answering it okay you're you're asking me a question that I
01:19:38
personally think is irrelevant how would I know whether the suppression of that story swung the
01:19:44
election how could I know that the point is that the American people were deprived of information that they had
01:19:53
Believe come it would have swung the election well I can't prove I can't prove that it swung the election what
01:19:59
I'm saying is that it was a type of election interference why was that story suppressed because 51 former
01:20:05
intelligence officials who still maintain close relationships with the intelligence Community publish a bogus
01:20:10
letter saying that it was Russian disinformation which it wasn't and then that caused our social media sites to
01:20:16
suppress it so that to me is as concerning if not more concerning than whatever it is that Tik tok's accused of
01:20:25
so I don't want social media companies being used by the intelligence communities of either China or the
01:20:33
United States to swing or to influence our elections and we need to be equally concerned about that as we are about
01:20:41
supposed Chinese influence just to go back in time you probably remember the Willie Horton ad I mean that kind of
01:20:46
sunk dakus if you remember that I mean media and these ads can really have a big impact so people should just look
01:20:52
historically there have been many moments where whether it's Nixon sweating on TV or the wiie Hort Ed there
01:20:57
have been many moments where video can do this and I think the the they could be done even more subtly by the Chinese
01:21:03
by just you know promoting certain videos all right let's move on to bitcoin issue five bitcoin's back baby
01:21:10
it hits an all-time high 69,000 interesting number on Tuesday 69,000 before dropping sitting around
01:21:18
68k as we're taping it be 75 by the time you hear this or 50 it's been ripping in
01:21:25
2024 of 70% since January 25th uh there's two things going on here uh that you've
01:21:32
probably heard about the Bitcoin ETFs finally arrived in the US they were approved by the SEC on January 10th
01:21:38
we'll get into that in a minute moth obviously it's an ETF it's super easy to buy them and sell them they've
01:21:44
been a total hit black rocks Bitcoin ETF became the fastest ETF to ever reach 10
01:21:50
billion in assets also as the technical crypto heads in the audience know there is a having happening in April this
01:21:58
happens about every four years at the current Pace last one was May of 2020 when these
01:22:03
halfings happen the mining rewards are cut in half this reduces the supply of new Bitcoins entering circulation and
01:22:10
can cause some swings shath uh we had a we released a clip I think um just about
01:22:16
your prediction and you nailed it again you said this would be a big year for Bitcoin so your thoughts on being
01:22:25
right I don't have much thoughts on that but my two comments are that I talk to a
01:22:30
lot of Bitcoin Traders and and folks that seem to have a very good pulse and touch on this Market I don't say that I
01:22:38
I do because I don't really look at it every day but they seem to think that this thing is on a death march to 100K
01:22:45
I'm not sure whether that price is realistic or not in the year but I will say that we're going to get to a Tipping
01:22:53
Point where everybody really talks about this I still don't think we're there yet
01:22:57
I think we're just at the beginning but when you see the inflows into these ETFs
01:23:02
jakal it's like a very big deal because it just allows every mom and pop individual to buy some to the extent
01:23:09
that they want to own it or they want to speculate on it whatever it is so I I think it's been a very big
01:23:16
year and I think that psychologically it's proven a lot of folks wrong and it's a setup for something really
01:23:25
constructive the other thing I'll say is that it's not just Bitcoin but as goes Bitcoin there are a handful of other
01:23:34
things people are now speculating that there's going to be an ethereum ETF that gets approved as well because you know
01:23:40
if you approve one there's probably legitimate cause to approve a few others so these things are becoming part of the
01:23:46
financial Fabric and I think that that should not be underestimated and the SEC is still taking action against certain
01:23:53
Bad actors in crypto there were a couple of those this week but Bitcoin fredberg
01:23:57
is incredibly resilient just on a technological basis the fact that it hasn't broken down under stress it
01:24:04
hasn't had you know a denial of service type of attack or a government hasn't been able
01:24:11
to capture 51% of the mining or or some great amount of it or just even be hacked in any way you have to be
01:24:19
impressed by the the fundamental technology here free maybe you could speak to that level of success that this
01:24:25
thing is so stable and trustworthy and reliable to date it's you know it's got a great incentive model as long as
01:24:32
bitcoin price remains High the miners will still be there and the system will keep running if bitcoin price
01:24:39
drops transaction fees will decline the value of mining will Decline and you know it kind of goes the
01:24:47
other way as well I think the real question is in the last couple of years have we really seen seen a change in
01:24:53
Bitcoin being used for transactions or for Commerce in any meaningful way I think the answer is still likely not no
01:25:01
definitely not and it's really a stored value system and it's become this kind of stored value Asset freeberg this
01:25:07
microplastics thing we talked about it on the show and uh since that time I refused to open plastic bottles I'm
01:25:15
doing all glass I'm getting rid of all this goddamn plastic I I already did glass bottles in my house cuz I'm cheap
01:25:21
and I like to fill it from my water filter but we're uncovering more information
01:25:26
and then I saw this headline this week that microplastics are in our blood streams in some cases and what the heck
01:25:34
does that mean it's worse than that team of scientists in Italy collected samples from patients that had plaque
01:25:42
removed from their cored artery it's a kind of common cardiac procedure where you get plaque that blocks up in your
01:25:50
cored they go in they removed the plaque so a total of 304 patients agreed to have the plaque that was removed from
01:25:58
their artery submitted for analysis and then what this team did is they took that plaque and they studied it to
01:26:05
see how much plastic was found in that plaque and they used a bunch of measurement techniques to do this
01:26:14
including electron microscopy and mass spec so they because it's really hard to find these molecules and microplastics
01:26:21
or nanoplastics remember are less than 5 mm in size with a mean level of 21 microG per mg of plaque roughly 1 per 50
01:26:32
is the ratio of plastic to plaque that they found which is really incredible because it shows that Plastics these
01:26:39
little Nano and microplastics are accumulating good or incredible bad incredible bad that these micro Plastics
01:26:45
these nanoplastics are accumulating in the human body now here's the the scary part they then did a followup 34 months
01:26:52
later the patients that had plastic in their blood had a four and a half times higher Ratio or likelihood of having
01:27:00
heart attack stroke or death from any cause so all of these major health effects were four and a half times
01:27:08
elevated in patients that had plastic in their blood this was published in the New England Journal of Medicine if I
01:27:13
didn't say it it really indicates that there is this kind of cumulative problem and that the cumulative problem is
01:27:19
likely leading to really adverse health outcomes and I'll just highlight one other paper from a team in Germany and
01:27:26
Norway back in May of 2022 and this team tried to figure out how Plastics are causing adverse health effects in the
01:27:33
body and they had a theory like let's put little microplastics or nanoplastics together with all the human cells that
01:27:39
we know shake it up and see what happens and what they found was that these little plastic fragments were binding to
01:27:45
dendritic cells and monocytes key cells in the immune system and when those cells were um Bound by PL IC they
01:27:53
release these cyto and the pro-inflammatory signals go through the roof it causes the immune system to go
01:27:58
Highwire increases inflammation and the cascading effects of that obviously can ultimately lead to many of the events
01:28:05
that we're mentioning were measured in this set of patients in Italy so um again we're just starting to uncover
01:28:11
these effects this concept that microplastics and nanoplastics that are accumulating let me just say these
01:28:17
Plastics are mostly pet which is what we use to make plastic bottles that we drink water and drinks out and PVC or
01:28:23
polyvinyl chloride which is what a lot of our plastic plumbing and piping is made from and so as little tiny bits of
01:28:30
these plastic materials either are exposed to sunlight and break off and end up in our water and food supply and
01:28:35
we consume them they are slowly accumulating in in bodies and they may be driving inflammatory response they
01:28:41
may be driving adverse Health outcomes we're really kind of tip of the iceberg and really studying this understanding
01:28:46
and analyzing it but here's another really interesting empirical data set that highlights that this really is
01:28:52
um pretty significant half the patients had it and of that half they had a four and a half times higher chance of dying
01:28:59
or having a heart attack or a stroke in the 34 months that followed yeah the scary data the thing the thing that that
01:29:06
study said which was nuts is it it looked like the the nanop particles the nanoplastics and microplastics were
01:29:12
effectively acting as scaffolding for plaque so in in almost like it was a it was a shim that allowed it to grow the
01:29:20
question is would it grown faster than it would have otherwise that's even scarier
01:29:26
so I did not like reading that paper that really freaked me out really really freaked me out I was
01:29:35
drinking water from plastic water bottles this week and time I drink water out of a plastic bottle now I'm like
01:29:41
like nervous every time I take a Si you're not supposed to double your the risk of all cause mortality by drinking
01:29:47
yeah aiji water you know what I mean four and a half x four and a half X it's crazy in 34 months think about the
01:29:53
cumulative effect over time long perod imagine drinking water out of a plastic bottle thinking you're doing the right
01:30:00
thing and then trotting over to the recycling bin you know yeah and you do that for 20 years you may be killing
01:30:08
yourself well there it is so wait what's the if you if you if the water glass bottles you must use you cannot use
01:30:16
plastic you just can it's over no plastic no plastic you got to stop it's over we're drinking it's done glass cans
01:30:24
good plastic stainless steel stainless steel is fine just like I mentioned when we talked about this a few weeks ago the
01:30:32
carbon footprint the environmental cost the cash cost is much higher with all these alternatives to plastic so there
01:30:37
are big challenges with respect to having some big massive response to Plastics used in our supply but you know
01:30:45
living in the luxury world that we all get to live in we get to have that choice and we'll make that choice but
01:30:50
it's a real problem for Humanity because Plastics are so ubiquitous in so many things and they've they've enabled
01:30:56
they've enabled affordability of consumer goods this is such honestly like all you have to do is have
01:31:01
glass bottles or carry a water bottle with you like I have a Contigo one I like I carry it with me I empty it I it
01:31:10
I have a water filter in my house and we fill water bottles and put them in the fridge no but what if you like yogurt
01:31:15
yogurt comes in a plastic container there's all kinds of stuff you can't avoid plastic that's so scary we try to
01:31:21
that's so scary we we do have the French yogurt that comes in glass bottles but yes it is hard yes we do the French
01:31:26
yogurt in glass where do you get it from there's a French yogurt that comes in glass it's called
01:31:36
like or something they been while no water water you just install a filter system which you have at the mum and
01:31:42
just fill huge glass bottles just have your staff fill glass bottles and put them in the fridge and don't throw them
01:31:49
away and give your kids like some of these thermoses or whatever but don't have the water bottles like you know
01:31:54
it's so funny it's been a disaster in the poker game in some ways we got rid of it and there's been way more broken
01:32:01
glass people knock over the you know the the side tables I get it it's been a huge pain but I will not go back no it's
01:32:09
the right thing to do absolutely the right thing to do okay well if if jamath is endorsing this I guess I'm gonna take
01:32:15
it seriously I think you got to do it my opinion doesn't matter with sex I'm not
01:32:19
saying you're wrong I'm just saying that your threshold for becoming concerned is
01:32:25
lower and then if Cham if it hits Chamas threshold Which is higher I'm gonna take
01:32:30
it more seriously as your besti I would like you to stop using plastic for the rest of your life okay you're in a
01:32:36
position to do it I would ask you to not do it all right everybody Welcome can all you fers come back to the B so we
01:32:43
can see each other absolutely I miss you guys all right love you guys I miss you
01:32:47
I miss you guys too for the Sultan of science the chairman dictator and the Rainman David Sachs I am the
01:32:55
world's greatest moderator okay love you guys I got to go love see you next time
01:33:01
bye let your winners ride and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:33:12
with it love queen [Music] of besties are that's my dog taking your driveway oh man we should all just get a room and
01:33:33
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that we just need to
01:33:38
release [Music] somehow we need to get merch our I'm going all [Music] in

Badges

This episode stands out for the following:

  • 80
    Most shocking
  • 75
    Most surprising
  • 70
    Most dramatic
  • 70
    Best overall

Episode Highlights

  • Elon Sues OpenAI
    Elon Musk has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI for breach of contract and unfair competition.
    “He wants OpenAI to open source their models.”
    @ 02m 32s
    March 08, 2024
  • The Meme Wars Begin
    After the lawsuit, memes about the situation have taken over social media.
    “The memes are definitely lit!”
    @ 05m 30s
    March 08, 2024
  • Nonprofit to For-Profit Shift
    The organization transitioned from open source to a for-profit model, raising ethical concerns.
    “They've completely changed the original mission.”
    @ 20m 10s
    March 08, 2024
  • IRS Investigations
    Concerns arise over potential IRS scrutiny following the organization's financial decisions.
    “The IRS is going to be on this like crazy.”
    @ 25m 36s
    March 08, 2024
  • The Fear Factor Around AI
    The mission of OpenAI raises concerns about the potential for dystopian outcomes.
    “This has raised the Fear Factor around AI.”
    @ 38m 58s
    March 08, 2024
  • Apple's Heavy-Handedness
    Apple's termination of Epic's developer account raises questions about free speech and power.
    “Apple booted Epic from their app store because they didn't like their criticism.”
    @ 51m 21s
    March 08, 2024
  • Warren Buffett's Disengagement
    Buffett's diminishing mentions of Apple signal potential trouble for the tech giant.
    “It went from a forever holding to barely getting mentioned.”
    @ 55m 15s
    March 08, 2024
  • Apple's Market Share Challenge
    Despite iOS's dominance in the US, Android leads globally with 72% market share.
    “iOS only has a 27% market share in mobile operating systems.”
    @ 59m 17s
    March 08, 2024
  • The TikTok Ban Proposal
    A bipartisan group proposes a bill to ban TikTok unless it divests from its Chinese parent company.
    “The bill is officially called the protecting Americans from foreign adversary controlled applications act.”
    @ 01h 06m 35s
    March 08, 2024
  • The Power of Social Media Influence
    Advertising on platforms like TikTok can significantly sway voter opinions.
    “The more frequently you show someone an ad, the more likely they are to vote differently.”
    @ 01h 15m 40s
    March 08, 2024
  • Bitcoin's Resurgence
    Bitcoin hits an all-time high, fueled by new ETFs and market optimism.
    “Bitcoin's back baby!”
    @ 01h 21m 10s
    March 08, 2024
  • Microplastics in Our Blood
    A shocking study reveals microplastics are found in human blood, raising serious health concerns.
    “Four and a half times higher chance of dying!”
    @ 01h 28m 59s
    March 08, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • If OpenAI changes their name to ClosedAI, I'll drop the lawsuit.
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
  • The series of events does not look good.
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
  • The potential of humanity starts to stretch into a new era.
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
  • It's just such a great insight with the Warren Buffett mentions.
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
  • This isn't hard right?
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics
  • Four and a half times higher chance of dying!
    E169: Elon sues OpenAI, Apple's decline, TikTok ban, Bitcoin $100K?, Science corner: Microplastics

Key Moments

  • Meme Wars01:22
  • Nonprofit vs For-Profit01:53
  • Mission Change20:10
  • IRS Scrutiny25:36
  • Structure Issues35:08
  • AGI Concerns38:56
  • Market Share Insights59:17
  • TikTok Legislation1:06:35

Tension Over Time

Words per Minute Over Time

Vibes Breakdown