00:00:03
salty Freeburg reminds me of a story for this weekend okay we're waiting in line
00:00:07
to go to The Encore Beach Club to see kaigo and kygo me and Friedberg are at the back of the line everybody else has
00:00:13
gotten through all you guys are filtering into the booth I go it was tight everywhere
00:00:19
and they say take out your clothes so I put off my phone that's all I have my key card
00:00:38
the guy says no food in the club no and he goes what do you mean no food this is
00:00:43
in a bag it's like it's just for sale shoes just precise they get in an argument back and forth he's like I'm
00:00:49
gonna take a stand this is outrageous I said Freebird come on let's just go so we go inside this is where he takes a
00:00:54
stand and then he's like can you believe it they took my pistachios like these were my pistachios
00:00:59
tilted easily and then and then all the way out he's like if I see that guy eating these pistachios and I thought
00:01:07
this is a Curb Your Enthusiasm skit right here are those my pistachios that guy was walking through the casino
00:01:15
later eating the pistachios I fell in love with Freeburg this weekend I had so much fun with this girl oh my
00:01:21
god there he is in the club he's so great he's so he was he was living his best life Nick show the bigger picture
00:01:27
Nick just zoom out so you can see oh there I am yeah I'm right next to him there's me look at how huge my ass looks
00:01:33
God it's a lot of that's a lot of s that is look at that huge dumper wow that's incredible and what's going on with
00:01:40
those are those underwear who's good is that Jake house that's my cat but I think it's just the T-shirt I think it's
00:01:46
just a t-shirt you obviously stopped the Olympic yeah no I'm still I'm still sideways I'm still sideways 170. put it
00:01:52
right back on didn't you nope no you stopped his impact and it came right back Vegas was so fun I gotta say give a
00:01:58
shout out to those guys that run that Delilah joint I think that's like the best new restaurant that is a really
00:02:02
great place a little loud I wish it would just go like one notch lower on the volume for the overview because
00:02:08
we're all good scene once you hit 50 yeah all the clubs are too long [Music] with us again on the all-in podcast the
00:02:30
architect himself crazy hair doesn't care David sacks Friedberg is committing suicide in the bottom of a pool
00:02:37
apparently he just cannot take all the adulation and inside that's the Leaving Las Vegas scene exactly that's You
00:02:45
Leaving Vegas uh down 150 dimes which you could have given to DeSantis like sax did and
00:02:52
hot off of his wonderful weekend the Afterglow of Vegas we went to Vegas to play cards it was a
00:03:01
wonderful weekend we had a great time everybody bonded a lot of laughs were had wonderful time
00:03:07
wonderful time wonderful time I got into craps I was never a craps guy but I had
00:03:12
a I had one of those how great was Jay Colin crabs oh my God I got a 40 I had a 40 dieroll run it was incredible there's
00:03:19
something about that game that is like super addicting to me oh when you just go on a 40 die roll oh I
00:03:27
think craps really is one of the best gambling games ever created so exciting it's so exciting it's so exciting it's
00:03:37
just like hitting the hard ways and then the feature bats the feature bats leaky bets no but when they hit they're
00:03:45
just so fun when they hit they just all the dopamine gets released loved it I spiked Aces for the max bet it was like
00:03:51
oh I saw that you put 500 on it yeah they only let me bet 500 but I bet 31-1 on Aces hit it hmm
00:03:58
table went crazy when that 15 dimes were pushed uh speaking about pushing 150 dimes uh it's actually been getting a
00:04:05
lot of press for being the architect I saw some stories let me ask you a question total fake news all fake news
00:04:11
we know that everybody's emailing me to try to get answers about you I just CCU on this but the Press has been trying to
00:04:17
cover Your Role architecting the Ron DeSantis presidential we talked about it last
00:04:22
week well the press wants to know what 150 dime skis is they could look it up in
00:04:28
the Urban Dictionary I think that would be easier but let me ask you a question about your
00:04:34
giving strategy or your donation strategy I notice that you're donating to RFK for president and you're donating to Ron
00:04:43
DeSantis are you donating to any other presidential candidates and why are you betting both sides of
00:04:49
the aisle this is confusing to me I thought you wanted one side to win I mean I've already explained this on
00:04:53
previous pods I don't know the answer what's the the simplest way to understand my political giving is just
00:04:58
to watch the all in pod and I always end up describing who I'm supporting and why
00:05:05
and which causes on the Pod first and then I back it up I put my money where my mouth is so there's no mystery
00:05:12
there's no like backroom deals going on it's just me writing checks and supportive things I've almost always
00:05:17
already talked about on the pod okay so what about this question of betting both sides so you're you're
00:05:24
betting for both teams in a in a basketball series like I don't know I don't understand that well I've said
00:05:30
that it's not competitive at this point I've said that I would support RFK Jr for the Democratic party nomination and
00:05:37
I support DeSantis on the Republican side because no contradiction I guess if they
00:05:41
both made it to the general then I'd have a real dilemma but let's face it they're both underdogs in their
00:05:48
Lane okay it'd be a high-class problem to have if it ended up being a DeSantis Kennedy race instead of a Biden Trump
00:05:56
repeat well I mean I played blackjack with you and you do play multiple hands at once so I guess it does this does
00:06:02
track it's it's not enough action for you to just play one hand I don't really see a contradiction there right now
00:06:07
there's a Trump DeSantis race going on and there's a Biden Kennedy race going on okay now
00:06:14
you hold a lot of fundraisers chamoth and I are actually doing an event for Bobby Kennedy
00:06:20
soon in the next two weeks got it let's go to YouTube well I think it's important to just
00:06:26
acknowledge an uncomfortable truth and I come at it from a person who's independent I'm not
00:06:33
registered democrat or republican but I've donated millions of dollars to the Democrats in the last couple of Cycles
00:06:40
but I'm concerned about Joe Biden's mental acuity and recently when you look at how
00:06:51
[Music] the White House behaves the thing that I'm worried about is that there's almost like this Sensation that
00:06:59
there's a shadow government that's actually running the country and we didn't elect any of those people
00:07:06
and this is nothing to say anything bad about Janet Yellen or Jeff Zions or anybody else
00:07:12
but I think it's very important to acknowledge that you know other presidents have typically seen
00:07:19
turnover in the highest ranks of government every two years or so and there's been
00:07:25
incredible consistency now one could say well that's a good thing the other side
00:07:30
of it is well that's what allows more vibrancy in government and to make sure that the president remains always in
00:07:36
charge and so I think it's very important in this moment where we have a president
00:07:42
who's 82 odd years old or however old he is we need to have the chance the American
00:07:48
public to re-underwrite his mental acuity and I think that's a judgment that we should all be allowed to make
00:07:54
and I think the fairest way to do that is to feel the candidate who can be on the debate stage with him
00:08:01
and who can actually just go toe-to-toe on the critical issues so that we as an American electorate can decide for
00:08:08
ourselves where does this issue land is he mentally super sharp and ready to go for another four years in which case a
00:08:16
lot of folks will support him or is this a moment where we actually need to be very responsible at the future of the
00:08:22
country and not create some puppet government situation I don't think it's funny that we have this Weekend at
00:08:28
Bernie's like meme that goes around about it this is the president of the United States it's the most important
00:08:34
person in the world we can't be in a situation where like that is a 30 probability that people joke about
00:08:42
so my support of Bobby Kennedy is in part because what I've heard from him I find intriguing but the more important
00:08:49
thing is somebody needs to be in the arena on the Democratic side and put to test
00:08:57
this mental acuity construct here and get us to an answer because otherwise I am worried that
00:09:04
there's a bunch of folks that were not elected who are actually running the government and I'm not sure how much
00:09:09
Biden actually knows or doesn't know and I want to know the answer to that question I think everybody wants to know
00:09:13
that answer and feels like Democrats would like a different candidate that's what the polling is showing to be you
00:09:19
know put on the field here and there is the issue of he's had the fewest number of news conferences we
00:09:24
don't get to hear from him directly which then fuels I think this perception Friedberg
00:09:31
that he's in cognitive decline and perhaps the cognitive decline has increased Republicans love to in the right love to
00:09:40
you know make these images of him confused on stage who knows if he's actually confused or if those are being
00:09:47
selectively edited but it certainly doesn't look good when you don't put the person out there to face the music
00:09:54
and to take hard questions I can't imagine he would do very well in a town hall or in an extended number of
00:10:01
debates and so this is the thing that I find truly scary is if the guy can't make it through the
00:10:06
debates and he can't debate RFK and 10 other people and he can't do news conferences and we
00:10:13
haven't heard directly from him or had him like face some really hard questioning he did one thing on MSNBC or
00:10:20
CNN and it was so pathetically sycophantic and it looked like it was highly edited
00:10:25
I kind of like the the host who did it I'll pull up her name in a minute I forgot her name right now she's actually
00:10:30
pretty good she's kind of funny and she's kind of insightful but she just so through softball to softball is there an
00:10:35
age Sultan of science that we should have a cognitive test for for office in your mind
00:10:42
I don't have an opinion on that you don't on an age I mean yeah like should we or
00:10:49
should we have a cognitive test can we cognitively test the president of the United States for office like
00:10:55
there's always saying is that when you hold debates and you do town halls and you do rallies then that is a cognitive
00:11:02
test you'll see you'll be able to take the cognitive measure by seeing how quick on their feet they are but if
00:11:09
Biden doesn't debate anybody we won't see it and right now they're saying they won't
00:11:14
debate Kennedy so that tells you right there that they're afraid of something I just want to reiterate this this is the
00:11:21
single most important person in the world in the single most important job if it breaks your brain in A Moment Like
00:11:31
This to not be partisan and think what would you do if it was the other side I just think you're like an unpatriotic
00:11:39
rube and you're gonna get tricked I'm not saying you Jason I'm saying anybody that thinks that I'm in your Camp I want
00:11:45
to see him debate yeah especially if the Ukraine war is still going on because we're that close to being in a direct
00:11:50
shooting war with Russia which could lead to a nuclear war so you need more money to be contained I'll be more
00:11:56
worried about the relationships contained I think it's escalated I don't think it's contained it's escalating and
00:12:01
as of yesterday there seems to be some configuration between Kosovo and Serbia that's kicking up so all of a sudden
00:12:07
we're talking about a totally different European land war and we have fiscal instability we're about to talk about it
00:12:14
today but the Home Market could implode in the United States the commercial real estate
00:12:19
market has already imploded there's all this complexity and I think that the idea that you can't
00:12:26
demand the most important person in the world to be on top of their game I just think
00:12:33
that that's outrageous you expect the best player in the NBA to be elite right yes of course yes they have to get good
00:12:40
sleep they have to have good Fitness they're measuring every single dimension of an NBA player's life they measure
00:12:46
their sleep now their diet their shooting percentages everything and we're not doing that for the
00:12:51
president United States by the way the MSNBC host who got the one interview I've seen with Biden in years was
00:12:57
Stephanie rule are you h-l-e from 11th Hour well they give him the questions that's how she gets the interview have
00:13:05
you seen that like Biden has these cue cards when he goes with the podium and literally it's got the questions and it
00:13:10
says who to call on so they script the whole thing that's a stack down that's a stack deck but Trump did that as well if
00:13:15
you remember nobody gave him the questions he said a PR the mcanany lady she had a huge binder and she would flip
00:13:28
to the talk my point is that's okay we never did the same thing with this answer what are you talking about didn't
00:13:33
you pick the first five speakers the first five questions were people you knew you said that he didn't stack the
00:13:37
deck Jason come on stop we didn't have a script you picked the first five speakers my point press
00:13:43
conference that's an introductory event that's the one announcing okay fine whatever same thing
00:13:48
no no no we're talking about a White House Press Conference and he goes up to the podium and secretly when they zoom
00:13:56
in on the camera they're seeing that literally he knows who to call on and what the question is going to be so in
00:14:03
other words the media is cooperating with the buying Administration for access for Access and they're giving him the
00:14:10
questions all right anyway let's let's move on I think it's very important to just acknowledge that you're trying to
00:14:15
normalize it by comparing it to the company different kind of event I am saying that is something they never did
00:14:20
that with Trump they never give Trump the questions he loves to mix it up I mean that's why he's winning that's how
00:14:25
you know he's still mentally fit I mean a mentally unfit Trump would be a scary proposition you may or may not like his
00:14:31
personality or temperament but no one is accusing him of being senile no he's sharp we're having dementia I think it's
00:14:37
important to get on the record I don't think we are saying that he is unfit to be president I think at least what I'm
00:14:43
saying is we have a right to underwrite the president every four years and on this
00:14:49
dimension this is the biggest issue that I see with Biden and I'm concerned in the lack of
00:14:59
turnover in the White House and I want to know that he is actually in charge day to day and making the
00:15:07
decisions versus a shadow government that's all I want to know and I want to see him live on the debate stage
00:15:15
so that he can validate yes that he is firmly on the controls 100 of Americans want this the only people who don't want
00:15:23
it is people who are in power who you know are part of his group that's not 100 doesn't mean I'm talking
00:15:31
about Americans who vote they all want to see him debate I don't think I don't know anybody who doesn't want to see a
00:15:35
vibrant debate so I think this is something the Democratic party the parties against it the Democratic party
00:15:42
needs to rethink their stance on this put them out there put him on the field up or down left or right he has to
00:15:47
debate at least three four debates in the primaries you know earn a slot it'll do real damage to the Democrats if Bobby
00:15:55
Kennedy gets a ton of steam and they ignore him I'll give you a different example of how Bobby's being roadblocked
00:16:01
which is when you go to 538.com and you look at you know Nate does a great job of pulling up all of the polling that
00:16:07
happens from all of the polling agencies there are many instances where the Democratic Fields won't even include him
00:16:15
when they ask him questions and so there is definitely a concerted effort here and I think it's not that I
00:16:22
don't want Joe Biden to win I think he's he could be fantastic again I voted for
00:16:27
him and I think that if he's mentally sharp and his hands are on there what are the chances you think he's Sharp
00:16:32
no I'm saying I don't know I know for myself what do you think the chances are I'm just using logic here I think they
00:16:40
could be pretty good actually you know there's a lot of like if you look at Buffett he's 92 he's sharp as attack
00:16:45
monger's 96 he's sharpest attack I think that if you live reasonably well and Biden's got some great things working
00:16:50
for him he's he's been a teetotaler his whole life so all the things that would have caught up with you in your 80s
00:16:56
Biden has avoided so from a health perspective he has the best chance of being on top of his game can he be
00:17:02
physically frail I don't care about that you know that happens to everybody so I
00:17:07
think it's important to disambiguate those two and so it is very easy to tell when you're standing on a debate stage
00:17:14
hell you can sit on the debate stage I don't care but I want you to be able to explain what you think in a way that's
00:17:22
cogent and coherent and you walk away thinking oh I feel safer with him with his hands on the controls here sex what
00:17:29
do you think is he what do you think the chances are he's sharp as attack he's not in cognitive decline he's not sure
00:17:35
we know that uh the question is whether he can serve at all should people have to take a cognitive test do you think
00:17:43
that would be a good Improvement no look I think the debates the cognitive test but what about the Senate and stuff like
00:17:48
that because it does seem like people are the voters are the cognitive test okay the problem is when the media is
00:17:54
cooperating with the candidate by not asking them tough questions or even worse sharing the questions with them to
00:18:00
give voters a false impression of how strong they are I mean look the media's job is to be fundamentally antagonistic
00:18:07
with the people on power not to cooperate with them here's something super intriguing that happened this week
00:18:12
Jamie dimon has hinted at running for office Bill Ackman made a case for him to run for president in 2024 this is
00:18:21
getting a lot of steam all of a sudden people are talking about it on CNBC uh and it's trending on Twitter on
00:18:27
Wednesday JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie diamond made some comments about potentially running for office in the
00:18:32
future quote I love my country and maybe one day I'll serve my country in one capacity or
00:18:37
another he's 67 years old you didn't know that Bill Ackman tweeted his support for Diamond running as a Dem
00:18:45
against Biden Hackman put out a number of compelling points diamond is one of the world's
00:18:51
most respected Business Leaders that's true politically Centrist pro-business Pro free enterprise all true supportive
00:18:57
of well-designed social programs and rational tax policies that can help the less fortunate smart thoughtful
00:19:01
pragmatic notice how to bring opposing parties together highly respected by right left and Center I think that's
00:19:07
also true superbly managed JPMorgan through every crisis quote no straight talking charismatic leader with an
00:19:16
enormous grasp of the world's issues and how to address them ath I'll just ask it to you plainly if
00:19:23
you had three choices or four choices Trump DeSantis Biden and the Jedi Jamie dimon
00:19:31
stack rank those for us rank them who do you got who do you vote for those are your four choices probably
00:19:39
Jamie Diamond one okay DeSantis two okay and Trump and Biden it's a bit of a tie
00:19:49
a bit of a tie garbage garbage okay not garbage garbage don't don't say that but
00:19:53
okay it's a bit of a time I mean it's two people that nobody wants to vote for it seems uh wants to run I personally
00:19:59
believe that the era of septogenarians and octogenarians should come to an end in terms of their ability to run this
00:20:06
country I want that transition now Jamie is 67 so but he's he's still much younger than these two other guys and
00:20:13
again yours is a lot it's a lot and vitality energy this matters and I think that he is a
00:20:22
very competent economic rational actor so it would be interesting to see I mean look the reality is if I had to be
00:20:30
really honest with you I think that what we should do is keep chipping away at The Establishment in how they pick
00:20:36
candidates it's going to be a slow process but I think in 10 or 15 years the real thing that we should all do is
00:20:43
if there's enough citizen journalism that we should really just change the Constitution
00:20:49
so that we can allow people that have been here for 25 plus years that have paid all their taxes that have followed
00:20:55
all the rules to run for president and then we could actually just we could vote Elon in and just have him clean it
00:21:01
up the way he's cleaning up everything else for honestly why not just do that I mean
00:21:07
who would who would not want them sax let me ask you to stack Rank and then we'll get you the
00:21:13
change in the Constitution issue which is that is the Hail Mary how would you rank those four I think
00:21:19
that we have run out of topics to talk about if Bill ackman's latest political brain fart is a major topic of
00:21:28
conversation I think this is inspired you guys put Trump in office the GOP put trumpet
00:21:34
office he's the outsider is Outsider lunatic and you can't even consider Jamie you're
00:21:41
laughing at that and you put Trump in office you guys put Trump in office and you're gonna do it again you mean you
00:21:46
guys listen the goparty here's the part about this conversation that sort of makes sense
00:21:52
two-thirds of the country says that they are uninspired and in fact fatigued by the idea of having a repeat of the same
00:21:58
choice that four years ago everybody wants a different choice so I get this like fantasy basketball drafting thing
00:22:06
that we're trying to do here okay the reason why I call it the brain fart and I look Bill's a really smart guy I'm not
00:22:13
dragging him but in order to win the presidency you have to get the nomination of a major party and the
00:22:19
problem with all this like fantasy drafting is that you're trying to draft people who are anathema to the party
00:22:26
that you're trying to get them the nomination from and Trump was able to get the nomination the
00:22:33
Republican Party Jamie dying would have to get the nomination of the democratic party that's not going to happen and it
00:22:37
does remind me of Bloomberg remember Bloomberg spent 100 million dollars on his campaign came in late yeah
00:22:43
he spent a lot of money and he made it to the first question of the first debate remember what happened Elizabeth
00:22:49
Warren said that this is a billionaire who talks about he didn't fight he laid down he rolled over she like ended him
00:22:57
it was one question one debate so my point is that you got to be able to get the nomination of a major party
00:23:02
and actually I think neither party could nominate a banker right now I mean if you saw what happened around the whole
00:23:09
banking crisis that I think still going on in slow motion I mean the amount of animosity both towards the banks that
00:23:17
went under and and the idea of you know potentially bailing them out and then also the animosity towards JP Morgan
00:23:24
when it actually bought First Republic I mean both parties have such a strong populist winging them
00:23:32
right now that I think you could never get yeah the head of the number one Bank in
00:23:37
the U.S to be their candidate you're completely wrong I think in this case respectfully I mean he could run as an
00:23:43
independent as well and although you know you you like to think or it seems like you're proposing that things are
00:23:50
going to be as they always were Trump shows a wild card and then people forget Ross Perot you know he got 19
00:23:56
of the popular vote he he hit 20 million votes to Bush's 40 million and Clinton's
00:24:03
44. it is not unprecedented and we are in a really struggling time you started this off by saying the Democrats should
00:24:09
draft Jamie diamonds as an independent there's no movement to draft the top Banker in the country
00:24:23
okay that was the wild card of all wild cards he ran he ran in one of the two major parties and he hit a nerve I know
00:24:30
that's my point so now tell me about Ross Perot tell me about Ross Perot and how did he hit 20 million votes and
00:24:36
isn't the world much different right now because of media because of people going
00:24:39
direct we're talking I mean chamoth just proposed Elon if you're proposing Elon you're saying I'm proposing a
00:24:45
constitutional amendment so that competent people sure who are not being born in the country got it yeah no if
00:24:51
you've lived here for 25 years or 30 years you've created hundreds of thousands of jobs and paid tens of
00:24:57
billions of taxes the idea that you are less fit than half these politicians to run for president is insane okay that
00:25:04
well that's a different question what do you think about that yes do you think we
00:25:08
should change the Constitution allow non-nationals to run for president not don't stop saying non-nationals it's so
00:25:14
gross it's like well you know it's people that weren't necessarily born here but if you lived your whole life
00:25:19
here the majority of your life and you build value for America and helped it win all of a sudden you're less capable
00:25:25
of being president that's absolutely not true oh I didn't say it was I'm I'm describing what the Constitution says
00:25:31
this was called the Schwarzenegger Amendment because you know when he was governor of California there were people
00:25:37
who wanted him to run for president but look it's too hard to change the Constitution it's a very difficult
00:25:42
process so do I think that's going to happen no would you be in favor of that and under what circumstances do you
00:25:49
think that it's about saying we should change that he's emphatic we should change in effect so what do you think
00:25:53
it's not a pressing issue for me I'd rather have a balanced budget amendment I'd rather the president have a line
00:25:58
item veto to control spending if you want to blow up the government and cut it down to size and impose the
00:26:06
ideals of liberalism true liberalism free speech well-controlled borders but good
00:26:12
immigration etc etc I feel like there are lots of people who could do that [Music]
00:26:20
and the only difference is they were accidentally not born here except they've created more value in America
00:26:26
than most Americans that were born here this term would actually be foreign born
00:26:31
National would be the most accurate term correct whatever dumb term you're using the ones in the
00:26:37
Constitution the government is a starhub for using accurate terms um I'll try to use less accurate terms
00:26:43
in the future so back to James Jamie Diamond nobody here is questioning whether he is a
00:26:51
supreme competent executive fully grant that he's done an amazing job taking JP Morgan it was ready the
00:26:59
biggest he's made it even bigger how is that possible whether that's a good thing to say we got to stop the bags
00:27:04
from getting bigger he's a little bit bigger yeah well that's a good thing for the country ultimately has a different
00:27:08
question yeah no one questions his competence and his expertise but again I see no Groundswell for him in either the
00:27:15
Democratic party or the Republican party or even as an independent because again
00:27:18
it doesn't fit the populist mood of the country right now so that's you are pragmatic like path to Victory
00:27:27
but let me ask you about competence then because maybe I could frame the question
00:27:30
and get a better answer out of you that's what I thought I was answering when you said who'd be more confident I
00:27:35
mean you guys interpret my questions have you like you interpret it in terms of competence
00:27:39
sax interpreted the question pragmatology getting into office but let's ask sax the question and I'll ask
00:27:45
you pragmatic then unless ax the question of competence in terms of competence I gave you like
00:27:50
four people right is he the most competent person to run the country right now no I you think DeSantis is
00:27:55
more competent than him I think that of all the major candidates who actually have a realistic shot DeSantis is the
00:28:01
most supremely competent as an executive he's run the State of Florida he did it
00:28:06
during covet which was a major crisis we all saw what happened all of our friends
00:28:11
were leaving California because California had locked down schools were closed we had the worst learning loss of
00:28:18
any state small businesses were going under our toddlers had to wear these stupid pointless cloth masks to score
00:28:25
that group hold on so Florida consensus kept Florida open they had a great economy it's number one in job creation
00:28:34
investment people moving there you balance the budget and that's why he was able to grow his majority from under one
00:28:40
percent when he first got elected to 20 points so you believe he would be more qualified than Jamie Diamond
00:28:48
because he's actually been tested in a political realm God you see you think that that is the better test I disagree
00:28:55
and I think probably the number one thing you have to do to be effective politically is to be able to understand
00:29:00
when the media the mainstream media and all their fake experts are wrong because
00:29:05
that's why the country's in such a mess we keep listening to all these fake experts who are wrong about everything
00:29:10
including covet did Trump do a good job as president in your mind he listens to the fake experts he had fauci in there
00:29:15
so you don't think Trump did a good job as president on covet he listened to fauci too much but okay because Trump
00:29:20
was an outsider and you seem to think he did a good job as president a lot of Republicans do so that's my point he was
00:29:25
an outsider you love putting words in my mouth and characterizing that I'm I'm asking you're going to do a good job in
00:29:31
ways that I never quite said okay I'm just asking you I think I think that Trump did a number of good things in
00:29:36
office for example he kept us out of Foreign Wars and I think the economy was pretty good until covet but yeah he had
00:29:43
no political I would say if they were like two big Achilles heels one was we had huge deficits and debt during Trump
00:29:51
and the other was once Covenant happened he listened to fauci right and fauci was
00:29:55
driving the train during Covenant and hold on gave us the lockdowns and then Trump never fired fauci and on Trump's
00:30:03
last day in office he gave him a medal insane insane and just so everybody remembers
00:30:12
June 16th 2015 Ben Carson and businessman Donald Trump tied in fourth place with five percent so things can
00:30:18
change and now Trump is swinging wildly at DeSantis saying that DeSantis was worse than Cuomo on covet okay
00:30:26
litigate that that's the last thing I want to relitigate is covet man we got bigger fish to fry DeSantis I think has
00:30:32
been doing really well over the last week because Trump has been making all these wild attacks on him
00:30:39
so now like they're they're really punching at each other it's really interesting let's pivot to the debt
00:30:44
ceiling real quick here the house wrote it overwhelmingly lead to pass the debt ceiling agreement 314 to 117. it's in
00:30:51
the hands of the Senate could be passed by the time you're listening to this some Republicans uh think the spending
00:30:56
didn't go far enough no shocker there but speaker McCarthy called it a first step
00:31:01
projected the bill would reduce budget deficits by 1.5 trillion over the next decade
00:31:06
some highlights non-defense spending flat in 2024 at 704 billion only increases one percent in 2025
00:31:16
and am still in the federal budget growth to one percent for the next six years for since 30 billion in unspent coveted
00:31:25
relief money that seems logical fully funds medical care for veterans that seems like a good
00:31:30
idea reallocates 20 billion from the IRS over the next two years to put towards non-defense programs
00:31:37
that's that crazy idea to hire 80 000 or something IRS agents pauses on student loan
00:31:44
repayments will now end in August we've talked about that on the show Biden student loan forgiveness plan will be
00:31:49
settled in the Supreme Court some stats on U.S debt put up two charts here and then I'll get freeburg's
00:31:56
position because he's very passionate about this U.S annual Surplus or deficits through end of year 2022 see
00:32:05
those uh great years I think those are the democratic.com Clinton years you did ran it up
00:32:12
well done Clinton U.S national debt end of year 2022 my Lord uh 32 getting close to 32 trillion U.S
00:32:22
annual federal spending up it around well I'm breaking Six Trillion a year and tax revenue by
00:32:29
deficit here there you have it go to that uh the red chart this is our national debt this is a upside down
00:32:35
hockey stick so this is what's concerning about it is we're going exponential on this thing
00:32:41
the problem with this just to reframe it once again for the hundred thousandth time wait a second wait this red chart
00:32:48
isn't this freeberg's losses in Vegas this weekend I think that's oh no that's our
00:32:53
Collective losses in Vegas this weekend I think we did the math this group was accounted for 10 minutes 10 bits of uh
00:33:00
Vegas's Blackjack revenue for the year so good job everyone good job people everybody in Vegas is now uh completed
00:33:07
their Q3 quarter targets early so the problem obviously with mounting debt is the interest payments on the debt cause
00:33:16
you to take out more debt and there's a Tipping Point where it becomes insurmountable
00:33:21
and there are many people sounding the alarm that we may be entering that point that in order to fund the interest
00:33:26
obligations on the debt we need to take out more debt and then there's more interest payments and therefore there's
00:33:32
more debt and it just keeps getting bigger and bigger and so this chart I'm sharing here is actually from the
00:33:38
federal government's GAO the government accountability office which acts almost like an independent accounting and
00:33:45
forecasting body trying to provide some outlook on the fiscal condition of the federal government and this is an
00:33:52
analysis I think they put out a few weeks ago showing that as of the fiscal year 22
00:33:58
eight percent of the overall federal budget was going towards interest spending by fiscal year 25 it'll be 26
00:34:06
and then net interest spending will need to grow to half of the budget but if you
00:34:11
go to the other sorry why don't you say that why don't you say the years because
00:34:14
it's important to note what years they're talking about 2051 2096 is what they're showing this is a Long window
00:34:21
yeah I get it but let me show you this chart just pull up the first chart so this is our federal government's
00:34:26
interest payments per year mm-hmm and so this is how much the government pays on interest for the debt by the way
00:34:32
most of the debt is getting refinanced now at the higher interest rates because a lot of this debt was sitting in in
00:34:38
zurp Era since 2008. but as the debt has to get refinanced and more debt is taken on to fund the interest payment
00:34:47
obligations the interest payment actually starts to to amount more significantly and that's what we've seen
00:34:52
in the last two fiscal years in particular now when you take this chart and you overlay how much we spend on
00:34:58
defense so here's defense spending we are I think as of this month or last month now spending more
00:35:06
the federal government is spending more on interest payments on the federal debt
00:35:10
than they are on National Defense whether we believe we are spending money on National Defense in a smart way or in
00:35:16
an accountable way or whether these are good strategic priorities and good strategic decisions the fact remains
00:35:22
that at some point here our ability to actually fund the programs that we want to fund whether their social security
00:35:28
Medicare or defense the the major cost outlays for the federal government it's going to get further hindered and
00:35:35
continually more hindered by the fact that these interest payments are climbing so significantly and if you go
00:35:39
to the third chart I think it kind of provides the final point which is Social Security and we're very quickly seeing
00:35:46
interest payments amount to the point of or Social Security spending lays and when that happens obviously as you guys
00:35:53
know everyone talks about that as being the golden program the right and the left the Democrats and the Republicans
00:35:57
simply will not touch Social Security from a policy perspective from a getting elected perspective but the economic and
00:36:05
arithmetic reality is running up against them which is that the interest payments
00:36:09
on the debt are starting to threaten our ability to fund Social Security and and Medicare there's many
00:36:16
more charts we could pull up to highlight this the Republicans in announcing the the debt deal this week
00:36:22
made a lot of proclamations about it being a win and showed how we were able to reduce spending by two trillion
00:36:28
dollars I think the the the statement they made the deal Cuts 2.1 trillion dollars in spending over the six-year
00:36:34
life of the bill and one and a half trillion dollars in statutorily mandated savings over the next two years 2.1
00:36:40
trillion dollars over six years remember we're talking about a seven million seven trillion dollar per year budget so
00:36:46
that's 42 trillion dollars over those six years we're cutting two trillion of 42. so it's a five percent impact to
00:36:53
start it's a start but what leverage do they have now that they actually did decide to make
00:37:02
cuts and that feels to me and we did predict here that they would get this done it does feel to me like this is
00:37:07
some amount of progress right I mean do you feel good about it or indifferent Friedberg yeah I think you guys know I I
00:37:14
think that there's we have we have to tackle the the structural problem of Revenue
00:37:21
spending interest rates right those are like very um big numbers that are that are
00:37:28
challenging each other chipping away at the spending doesn't quite get us there and you know it doesn't seem like
00:37:36
there's a clear path here even you know the argument that RFK made when he came on our show RFK Junior made when he came
00:37:42
on our show that cutting military spending would have an impact I mean you guys see military spending is already
00:37:47
starting to get overtaken by the interest payment spending so does that really move the
00:37:53
needle I think it's going to be an economic reality that all programs are going to need to be cut back in order to
00:37:58
fund the debt obligations or we're going to see massive inflation I guess my question was do you feel like
00:38:06
this was a good step or a good signal that maybe the government is and our representatives are getting the message
00:38:14
that they need to make some cuts at some point I don't think that there's any way
00:38:18
to provide the necessary fiscal security for the federal government without bipartisan
00:38:27
unitary support around the objective which is to get to a balanced budget and to reduce the overall debt and interest
00:38:34
payment obligations and if you can't start from that point it's this push and pull over what programs get cut but I
00:38:41
want more money being spent I want to have a pipeline super enthused by this I thought it was a positive step chamoth
00:38:47
you have talked about refinancing the debt putting the 100 Year trillion dollar coin or whatever we wind up doing
00:38:53
refinancing this on a long Arc 50-year 100 Year Arc what does this debt ceiling reconciliation or whatever we're going
00:39:02
to call it that they came to some sort of agreement here signaled to you you predicted they
00:39:07
would get through this pretty easily so yeah or anything nothing Burger nothing move
00:39:13
on nothing would you buy a 100 year bond from the federal government if I was a foreign government yes what interest
00:39:22
would you need to get paid on that to take that on probably one to two percent one to two percent for a hundred years
00:39:29
yeah so it would be downside protection you just feel like this is a secure place to put
00:39:33
some amount of money this is how any any country with a turbulent currency would make this decision and you could
00:39:43
actually get close to zero I think that when we had zerp you probably could have
00:39:47
charged a negative interest rate because you would have effectively been charging
00:39:51
countries third world developing countries even First World countries that just wanted a protective mechanism
00:39:56
against their currency volatility they would have probably paid you just like today you can get boj debt
00:40:04
that's negative yielding so it's no longer negative but it's still probably in the realm of one one and a half
00:40:10
percent it's nothing if you just do the math it's nothing and this is why I don't understand why everybody just gets
00:40:15
their underwear in a bunch here okay non-gender Underpants put the red chart up there
00:40:21
it's like nothing it's a nothing it's nothing to nothing it's a hockey stick nothing means nothing I think you guys
00:40:29
what you see here is an accelerating problem yeah cut Revenue the debt is getting bigger and bigger at the same
00:40:35
time that uh foreign governments and investors in general don't want to fund our debt so therefore interest rates
00:40:42
will rise our interest costs will keep that's not why interest rates are going up
00:40:46
well if they're going up because the FED is raising rates because of inflation but at the same time that's happening
00:40:50
foreign governments are not as interested in having dollar reserves and U.S treasuries said who does
00:40:57
demonstrated by what you look at the foreign reserves of these countries or these sovereigns they
00:41:04
are much less interested in holding U.S treasuries foreign with China and all the brics countries foreign reserves are
00:41:10
up these guys are banking US Dollars like nobody's business I don't think so I think it's been going down since 2008.
00:41:16
I'll find you a chart yeah maybe from 2008 I don't know from the great financial crisis at the absolute depths
00:41:22
but what I'm saying is that in general the anchor currency for governments and central banks has been will be and
00:41:30
will likely be in the future the United States dollar and we get back to the circular argument which is I don't think
00:41:37
it's possible for politicians to cut expenses so I am just an advocate for cutting Revenue because I do think it's
00:41:44
the simplest way to force people because the next time they go through these machinations and all this theater around
00:41:51
a debt ceiling they'll just have less Revenue to play with and it'll just become a harder and harder and harder
00:41:57
problem meanwhile I do think that you have to take the ball where it lies and take these 24 or 30 trillion dollars and
00:42:04
refinance it well out into the future and make a bet on U.S exceptionalism and U.S GDP and if you don't want to believe
00:42:10
it don't be here move to some other country where you think it's so much better and go do it there what if
00:42:16
the Market's not there what if the buyers are not there and you're wrong sure I mean you know what an asteroid
00:42:21
could hit the earth in the next day we could talk about all kinds of long tail consequences but there is there you have
00:42:27
to be able to probably weight these things and then spend your time thinking about the things that are more
00:42:32
probabilistic and be able to compartmentalize the anxiety of the less probabilistic things so I think that
00:42:39
could there be a scenario where there is no interest sure is there one no because
00:42:44
you see every day the government's in the market doing auctions and there is a robust demand for United States
00:42:50
government debt and until there isn't this argument is specious and all I would tell you is just keep trying put
00:42:58
out more try a 45 Euro Bond and see what it feels like try a 50 or you don't have
00:43:03
to do 100 if it makes you too anxious that's fine let me just ask you at some point if the market isn't there the
00:43:07
buyers are not there but you know but let's just go through the analysis because I know that you
00:43:13
think it's it's a zero chance but if it's as low probability do you agree that the severity is high that the
00:43:19
significance of that being the case I don't again I am not going to give an iota of breath to a long tail five Sigma
00:43:26
outcome it is a waste of time okay because it occupies and I'll tell you why I don't do it it occupies my
00:43:33
mind share which takes away from me figuring out how to make money and win on the field today so I have you know I
00:43:41
wake in a 24-hour day okay just to give you a sense of it I sleep for eight you know I'm eating for another one or two
00:43:47
all this I have four or five hours a day of useful thinking time and I try to think of the belly of the
00:43:57
probable and I try to compartmentalize these dumb long tail Sigma events because it distracts me from making
00:44:04
money and winning I actually try to think about long tail Sigma events that could make me money
00:44:10
this isn't one of them so I just don't spend time thinking about it I mean I could be totally wrong
00:44:15
I could be totally wrong it's worked for me so far and I'm gonna stick to what works guys sax has been on Google for
00:44:21
five minutes he's got something for you tomorrow go ahead he usually stick to the investing strategy that works for
00:44:25
you I'd like to talk about the status of U.S treasuries so if you look here this is total
00:44:32
foreign treasury Holdings as percent of marketable Treasury Securities so it's gone down from the mid 50s to the low
00:44:39
30s since 2008-2009 as a percentage as much as they used to starting with China they are diversifying into other
00:44:52
currencies and gold and there are a bunch of good reasons for that by the way this comes from a
00:44:57
Blog which is really interesting it's a crypto guy named Arthur Hayes and this is actually a pretty interesting piece
00:45:04
called exit liquidity rights interesting pieces on the banking system and de-dollarization he's got a little bit
00:45:10
of a doomor thesis with respect to the US dollar you know obviously he's pro-bitcoin his users are sort of
00:45:16
similar to topologies but anyway I think one of the points he makes that's really
00:45:19
interesting is that if you're to zoom out thirty thousand feet and think about the regime that we had
00:45:26
during let's call it the unipolar moment where China and the United States were strong trading partners and we had this
00:45:34
close relationship with them the way the global economy worked is that China would sell Goods to the United States
00:45:41
they would have huge trade surpluses and then they would take those dollars and they'd use some of them to buy raw
00:45:48
materials like energy that was called the Petro dollar and then they would take other dollars
00:45:54
their Surplus and instead of repatriating at home they would have to have then converted that money into RMB
00:45:59
and brought it home they didn't do that that actually would have increased the value of their currency thereby making
00:46:04
their export less attractive this is why they're accused of currency manipulation
00:46:08
they took their Surplus dollars and bought U.S assets mainly U.S treasuries so we had this trading relationship with
00:46:16
China I think everyone understands the physical world side of that trading relationship where you had U.S
00:46:20
manufacturing jobs got export to China they basically made everything a lot of cheap Goods came into the U.S they had a
00:46:26
trade surplus what I think people don't understand is that a huge part of that trade surplus was used to finance U.S
00:46:33
deficits in debt and so you had this like cozy relationship between US elites and U.S politicians and China where they
00:46:41
got to rack up these huge deficits the government got to spend a lot of money and China would fund it very cheaply but
00:46:48
now that's all ended that's stopped because we're basically starting to decouple from China so China doesn't
00:46:53
want to do its business in dollars if they don't have to obviously for the products they sell of the US they'll
00:46:58
take dollars but they're already trying to do as many transactions as they can buying oil for example or energy in RMB
00:47:07
I I don't want to dispute this chart because this chart is true but it's a small part of how the entire
00:47:13
puzzle works and so this is a Bitcoin maximalist who Cherry picks a few data points to try to make a point but if you
00:47:20
look at the IMF data and I put it to you in the group chat you can't just look at
00:47:24
us treasury Securities you have to look at actual absolute dollar reserves and when you look at that over time it
00:47:29
hasn't fluctuated that much and so for all the dopes that don't understand how this works it's not just Securities
00:47:35
it's actually also money and the actual amount of US dollar money hasn't changed
00:47:41
that much gone between 60 and 70s I just find this argument again one of these long Sigma arguments that are anxiety
00:47:50
riddled and I just don't want to waste my time thinking about it because it'll distract me from winning on the field
00:47:55
today you got to be able to block things out if you want to be a capital allocator I agree but an interesting
00:48:00
discussion nonetheless I don't think these things are just noise I think you're seeing a trend I mean look how
00:48:06
many headlines there are about the brics countries getting together and starting
00:48:10
to transact in currencies other than dollars yeah you know what those are very cherry-picked as well and you said
00:48:15
before you don't trust the Press so you trust the Press on these headlines all of a sudden I don't think that that's
00:48:20
actually I don't think anyone's disputing the fact that China and Saudi Arabia and China and Brazil are doing
00:48:26
energy transactions in RMB they think it's very tiny they're doing all putting all their money into venture capital in
00:48:32
the west private equity and the rest real estate in the West the Middle East that's where they're that's where
00:48:38
they're focusing their energy there's a different issue look no one is disputing
00:48:42
the fact that China and the brics countries more generally are trying to create a trading block that is not
00:48:48
dependent on the US dollar gradually that's not saber rattling I think they're trying to just let the us know
00:48:55
like hey we have other options here and I think it's China just trying to it's China on their heels trying to make
00:49:02
deals with others China pursuing their self-interest which is not to be dependent on a dollar that's been
00:49:09
weaponized since controlled by the U.S political you can be sure that Saudi UAE and the entire voting Block in the
00:49:14
Middle East are shipping their money West not East I think you have a very accurate assessment of what China wants
00:49:19
but it doesn't mean it's going to happen and I think you have to make a bet what
00:49:22
do you think it's going to happen or not it's not going to happen and I think the
00:49:26
reason and I've said this before is China is in a demographic time bomb and that will dominate everything else that
00:49:32
is a country that is imploding and there's anti-capitalist they're anti-capitalism no no I'm going to say
00:49:39
that they are capitalists I'm not going to make these judgments but I'm going to
00:49:41
tell you practically speaking is they are demographically imploding they do not have enough people the country will
00:49:47
be halved by the death rate and the lack of birth rate by 2300 okay so in another 70 odd years
00:49:54
that is a problem that is going away and that is just mathematical and if you just again you just have to take a deep
00:50:01
breath look at the data and just extrapolate and you see this is not a problem China is not a problem China has
00:50:08
real problems there's no question about it they've got demographic problems they've got problems in the banking
00:50:13
system they've got a real estate bubble State problems there are questions about
00:50:17
whether the leadership now is turning away from the capitalism that got them to this point they are so there's no
00:50:23
question that China has problems but you want to talk about friends there is a major Trend in the world right now where
00:50:30
again the brics countries Brazil Russia India China South Africa and you can put
00:50:35
Saudi Arabia in that bucket and a lot of other countries they are looking to diversify off of the dollar I'm not
00:50:42
saying that the dollar is going to stop being the world's Reserve currency because I agree with you that there's no
00:50:47
ready replacement at hand but they are trying to do as many transactions as they can off of the dollar and they do
00:50:55
not want to hold treasuries like they did 10 or 15 years ago that's a very loaded statement I don't
00:51:04
think I don't know if that statement's true what are you talking about this is like major they tried to do one trade
00:51:09
China and Saudi and China and no Saudis talked about it and they didn't do it they talked about it yeah I would like
00:51:15
to see data on that not just a couple of headlines because I think everybody wants to nobody describes us what are
00:51:21
you talking about give us the data the Brazil thing happened but I think it was a small trade David yeah that's what
00:51:25
yeah that's exactly first you say it didn't happen and now you're saying no no I'm saying that Saudi Arabia China
00:51:30
thing did not happen your statement was they're trying to talk many transactions as possible off
00:51:35
the dollar I don't think they're trying to do as many transactions off the dollar I don't have never seen any
00:51:40
actual database you don't know I'm just making up no you're interested of course they want to get off the
00:51:48
dollar if they can't no no I think Jason's saying you're right what they want to do but what they are doing
00:51:53
Chinese is what he's debating is sending their money West I don't think they're trying to send at
00:51:58
least I don't think that's hold on a second you're you're right that Saudi Arabia is investing in the U.S they're
00:52:04
I'd say highly Diversified that's a little different than what China is doing yes we're in agreement China wants
00:52:12
to get people off the U.S dollar China's in Decline China's got big issues we all
00:52:17
agree on that the Middle East has a lot of cash I think if they're going to decide what to do with it they'll
00:52:22
appease China to have a solid relationship to ship oil there but I think that's a normal customer now
00:52:28
hearts are in the west that's where they're gonna there's been a Giants full realignment haven't you noticed I think
00:52:35
the realignment yeah the Middle East becoming westernized and being accepted in the west and moving towards an
00:52:40
investor in the West in technology that's actually the trend the Chinese just negotiated or approached law
00:52:45
between Saudi Arabia and Iran did you notice that that's okay I'm just talking about where they're putting them these
00:52:53
things are all connected where are they putting their chips I think what you've explained and I think we're in agreement
00:52:58
they'll sell their oil to China then what do they do with the bag they take that same bag and they want to put it
00:53:03
towards I don't know it's even it's even worse again the thing is even if you settle a trade in the Yuan I think you
00:53:09
guys keep forgetting this key thing which is the yuan is pegged to the US dollar so it is a proxy dollar so if you
00:53:15
really want to decouple you first have to let this currency free float they have no desire to let them do that
00:53:21
especially in a moment where they're economically imploding internally so again you go back to the circular
00:53:26
argument where everything goes back to the dollar so yes they're saber rattling sacks I acknowledge what you're saying I
00:53:32
think you're totally right that they would love a free-floating currency the Chinese would love Chinese and they want
00:53:37
that free-floating currency to not be pegged to the dollar but right now they have kept it pegged to the dollar so
00:53:42
even if they Google that and it says not it says Google is you on pecked USD and it says
00:53:48
the Chinese yuan is not pegged to the US dollar was pegged from 94 to 2005 but in
00:53:53
2005 China made its currency of floating exchange currency it is not a floating current see yeah and then do you trust
00:54:00
uh yeah it's highly manipulated I agree with that but I don't think it's pegged it's not a floating currency it is not a
00:54:06
free-floating currency China controls the exchange rate between themselves and the US dollar let's move on
00:54:12
I think we've covered this it'd be actually one thing that might be interesting topic of reality you have no
00:54:18
basis which we're declaring that things like the moves that China is making with
00:54:23
Brazil and Saudi Arabia you're just declaring that to be fake news nobody's saying fake news we're saying it's
00:54:28
happening but it's probably minor and it's probably more describing what's your basis for believing that because we
00:54:33
have no evidence to prove that it's occurring we just have a couple of headlines and some small I mean where is
00:54:39
it I mean all we're seeing is the the the money in Saudi Arabia is they're selling oil to China correct they're
00:54:46
doing deals there then they're taking that money and then they want to invest it in the west who are you talking about
00:54:51
the other thing to keep in mind is that the Saudi real is pegged as well to the US dollar
00:54:56
and that's been there since I think the mid 80s so China's is a very opaque manipulated currency Market where they
00:55:03
keep the dollar Yuan spread quite fixed on the other side Saudi has kept the same
00:55:10
Peg 3.75 to the dollar since the mid 80s so again it all just goes back to the US
00:55:15
dollar it's all proxies for the dollar so there's some symbolic value I suppose in trading in Yuan
00:55:20
but everything goes back to the dollar because that's what it's measured in so I said this is not symbolic what's
00:55:25
happening is deeply geopolitical you've got a couple of things going on one is that the US is now instituted sanctions
00:55:32
on over 40 countries moreover the whole world saw that in the case of Russia we froze their foreign reserves and
00:55:40
basically seized the property of their oligarchs so if you're in oligarch in the Middle East do you think you want to
00:55:46
keep all of your money on all of your reserves in dollars you understand that the dollar has been weaponized and it's
00:55:51
a political instrument in the United States that's just a fact so you're going to look to diversify you're going
00:55:56
to look to put your money in Gold you're going to look to put your money in other
00:55:58
currencies is there like I said a currency a hand that's ready to be a replacement for the US dollar no and it
00:56:04
can't be the Yuan they don't have an open Capital where would you diversify if you were
00:56:09
the CIO where would you diversify well what I would do if I were the Secretary of the Treasury of China is I would say
00:56:18
that okay for the exports of the us we're going to keep getting dollars and we'll do something with those dollars
00:56:23
but for everybody else we're going to try and do as many transactions as an r b as possible but what about the sellers
00:56:29
of oil to China what would they do things are exactly the trades that we're talking about you tell them to hold REM
00:56:36
and be over U.S and Euro China is seeking to pay Saudi Arabia you actually don't understand it
00:56:47
let me ask you a question would you as CIO of Saudi or UAE would you want to keep REM and B would you want to keep
00:56:54
Euros or US Dollars where would you want to keep your money and the question is if they sell that would they want to
00:57:00
keep it in remedy I don't think they would want to keep the ones honestly to answer your question I wouldn't put it
00:57:04
in gold here's what China is proposing okay they're saying to Saudi Arabia and Brazil we're going to pay you for your
00:57:14
oil in RMB and then you are going to take the r b and you can buy our products yeah because again we make
00:57:22
everything we're the factory of the world and if you still have a surplus after that you can settle that Surplus
00:57:28
in gold because Beijing has a very liquid you know Gold Exchange Market they're giving
00:57:34
them Amazon that's what they're proposing here's your gift cards yeah spending gift cards two data points on
00:57:40
the sacks that I just read it's in this Barons article that I included Nick you may just want to link to it in the show
00:57:45
notes which I thought was pretty good Swift which is sort of like the international payments backbone the
00:57:50
share of Yuan transactions briefly Rose above three percent in 2022 that was the peak and it's now
00:57:57
off 26 percent down to about 2.2 percent so actually the share of Yuan transactions has
00:58:03
actually been shrinking in the last year and then the second is that what this article states which is interesting is
00:58:08
that all the belt and Road loans that China gave into all these developing countries in Africa the Africans were
00:58:13
like we don't want this you want and so they just dollar swapped and so now the Bri loans are all serviced in US dollars
00:58:19
as well so all the trillions of dollars China spent I'm just saying that again I'm not
00:58:24
judging your own alternative Swift weaponize swift as well yeah but Swift is still 98 of the of the world of how
00:58:30
it works all I'm saying is I just like to look keep things simple I think the US dollar is here for a
00:58:36
while I think that debts suck I would love to have no deficits but I also think these numbers are roughly like
00:58:43
we're playing plus or minus on the margin two to three hundred basis points we talked about that last week
00:58:47
and so I want to keep my brain open to the simple obvious things like you know selling
00:58:57
for youth you're like yeah it's a doubt I'm a big cpg guy now yeah that's where tremont's focused once you've pulled
00:59:03
Freeburg into this debate I have one more time A Doctor Doom go ahead doctor so I think I'm Dr Doom I'm just Dr
00:59:09
reality or at least I try to be I don't know like there was a deal you know China had a big visit with Brazil in
00:59:15
March we talked about it briefly I shared a couple of these articles that covered the transactions they signed 10
00:59:21
billion dollars of trade agreements and Cooperative agreements all of which were
00:59:25
meant to settle in you on Brazil's kind of made the statement that they're going to start to settle in
00:59:29
local currency and you know they're doing this multilateral trade program globally with Partners
00:59:38
where they're going to trade and transact in in local currencies they're not set to the dollar they're not fixed
00:59:42
to the dollar and I think that's just part of a general movement I don't think it's about hey we got to get off the
00:59:47
dollar as soon as possible but I think it's about we could diversify and there are other stable economies around the
00:59:52
world they might be having you know demographic issues or various economic issues but gosh man don't we all Europe
00:59:58
China the US everyone's got debt problems demographic problems over leverage problems growth problems
01:00:05
and fundamentally I don't think that there's as safe a Haven as there has been historically and as a result I
01:00:10
think a lot of these governments and a lot of the Business Leaders in these countries are very much open to doing
01:00:15
transactions in multiple currencies and that's the beginning of the end it's the
01:00:20
beginning of a set of transactions that isn't about hey we're all getting uh against the dollar it's over let's crush
01:00:25
the dollar it's like we're just going to do trades in other currencies no big deal beginning of the end
01:00:32
all right it's the end of the dominance right it's the end of you everything about the end
01:00:39
of the dominance and China imploded during that same time period so I forgive me I still believe in American
01:00:44
expression from American exceptionalism there's another article from Bloomberg brick this is from uh April 24th all of
01:00:51
a sudden this guy loves the Main Street Rick straws membership bids from 1986 listen jaycal I'm fine if you want to
01:00:57
say this is fake news go for it believe it's fake news no I need information about the world
01:01:07
when they write an article about me that's completely made up I'm going to call it fake News why are you treating
01:01:12
like every press article is like the same that makes no sense by the way it does make sense for the bricks to expand
01:01:17
right sax because it's like if NATO was purely an economic organization that's probably what brics evolves into over
01:01:24
time and it makes a ton of sense for them to do it they're creating a competing China's setting up an
01:01:28
alternative to the IMF that's right they've got this alternative to the IMF that they're setting up that's not
01:01:33
dollar denominated and they've got Seven Nations in this thing now it's a it's you know and by the way Jason when I say
01:01:39
the beginning of the end I don't mean the end of the world or the end of the U.S the US will continue to be the
01:01:43
Innovation Hub of the world the U.S will continue to have freedom and civil rights that no that no other country can
01:01:48
parallel the US is an incredible place to live better than anywhere else on Earth but the economic status of the US
01:01:55
given how we have spent money and how we continue to operate our federal government with this extraordinary
01:02:00
deficit and death spiral problem means that other people have to be protective of their currencies and their assets in
01:02:06
a way that's thoughtful it doesn't necessarily mean it's all over and everything but the dominance you said
01:02:10
beginning us has had economically you can already see this in all the trade barriers and tariffs that are going up
01:02:16
the decoupling that's going on look the United States set up a system of global free trade basically in 1945 and we had
01:02:25
a bipolar world with you know the Soviets and in America but the Soviets basically opted out because they were
01:02:32
Communists they had their own system but it was then we had the unipolar world so
01:02:39
basically for you know over half a century we had this completely open system where there were no trade blocks
01:02:45
in the world now we are seeing the rise of trade blocks with multi-polarity yes the US is pursuing a contrary policy
01:02:54
because on the one hand hold on here's the contradiction on the one hand we run these massive deficits and debts so we
01:03:00
are a debtor Nation who needs to make its debt attractive to to debt holders or our interest rates
01:03:09
are going to keep going up okay so that's on the one hand on the other hand we are doing things like weaponizing the
01:03:15
dollar and weaponizing Swift and imposing sanctions and engaging in geopolitical fights that are highly
01:03:25
antagonistic to the Nations that RR would be holders of our debt so one of those two things has got to
01:03:33
give either we reduce our debt and our deficits and then need remember we're not this is not
01:03:41
a stable situation we continue to issue what is it somewhere between one and two
01:03:47
trillion a year two trillion government debt so we have to constantly find more and
01:03:52
more money out in the world to support our debt at the same time that we're weaponizing the dollar in the financial
01:03:57
system so that these sources of global Capital don't want to participate and I agree with sex this is why I think the
01:04:04
disappointment to me is that there isn't bipartisan recognition of this being as severe as a
01:04:10
war it is the sort of thing that the government that both parties need to get behind and say let's figure out a path
01:04:16
to solving this problem this is the objective we've got to get our fiscal Affairs in order and then all the other
01:04:21
stuff the social stuff the policy stuff we can fight about we can argue about later but we have to put some gas in the
01:04:27
tank we have to be able to drive where we want to go and we can't drive right now here's what I'll say to you
01:04:32
Friedberg since you said the beginning of the end now maybe it's a poor choice of words
01:04:38
it's not the end of it again by the end yeah but but don't miscarriage of dollar dominance and global trade
01:04:48
okay I disagree with you I think dollar dominance will continue for some time Jacob are you disputing that the world
01:04:52
is becoming more multipolar do you think we're still living in unit polarity no and nor do we need to live in
01:04:59
unipolarity for America to still be the Champions we still are winning at a pace
01:05:03
that nobody else is space winning one energy cars AI we're probably gonna win chips and we're gonna
01:05:11
probably win Material Science and batteries and we're obviously going to win biotech we're winning in every one
01:05:17
of these categories we're the clear winner the only thing we're not the clear winner in is factories and
01:05:22
mass-producing schlocky stuff that's sold on Amazon China's completely imploded and the Middle East is taking
01:05:28
their last 20 or 30 years of capital and they're investing it in the West in space energy cars AI chips basic
01:05:37
materials batteries all the stuff that's happening here on our Shores we are in the most winning position we've probably
01:05:42
ever been in as a country we took a bad beat we spent too much money we got a dysfunctional government we got culture
01:05:47
wars we got a lot of bad stuff distracting us but the truth is when you look at brass tacks when you look at
01:05:52
Innovation we're winning on almost every Dimension we're just a little caught up
01:05:57
in the fog of culture wars and you know thinking that we're going to be dominant
01:06:02
and perfect in terms of our budget we do have to fix our budget we all agree on that but we are winning and China is
01:06:10
currently stalled out and it's because of Freedom it's because we support entrepreneurs because of the basic human
01:06:16
freedoms we have you two guys are Dr Doom this is so stupid I'm I'm hopping off I'm done with
01:06:22
this just strike my out of this episode whatever you want is there anything else you want to talk about
01:06:27
today because I'm done this is gonna be done I'd love want to talk about it in video but I don't know if you guys I I'm
01:06:31
sick of being characterized as Dr Doom J Cal it's stupid we want to have a real conversation
01:06:37
about having a great conversation matters instead of your screen about what I said I'm not actually
01:06:43
extreme I'm not I'm trying to have like an actual disciplined conversation about
01:06:48
where things are going it's not black and white it's not about oh my God the us is going to win everyone's gonna lose
01:06:52
it's not a win-lose situation we cannot afford to continue to spend the way we're spending with our federal
01:06:57
government that's it I agree with that we have to I think we're still winning on all these other dimensions so why are
01:07:01
we winning that's not the conversation why is the federal government is different from U.S Innovation there's a
01:07:06
difference the federal government these are the Tutors or voters elect to tax and spend and voters elect people to
01:07:14
create a system that can legally go in and take assets and spend assets and borrow money and we've done it in an
01:07:20
extent now that is becoming almost a runaway train it is a problem we saw the negative red chart that sax had you pull
01:07:27
up several times that has nothing to do with U.S dominance and electronics and chips and biotech and
01:07:34
all this other sort of stuff we have a problem with how we spend money at the federal level I agree with that
01:07:40
believe that the dominance that we have in entrepreneurship in every one of these categories is what will pull us
01:07:46
out of this the free enterprise system is a wonderful system that produces a lot of good prosperity for America okay
01:07:52
that's great I agree with that and it remains to be seen if China can sustain its remarkable
01:08:00
economic growth that it's had over the last few decades so that remains to be seen however the United States is
01:08:06
behaving like a late stage Empire and that is separate from the system that got us here
01:08:13
we have unsustainable fiscal deficits we spend way too much money that we don't have we have a uncontrolled Southern
01:08:20
border our cities are in Decline we've got hundreds of thousands of people living on the streets have you seen it
01:08:27
we look like a third world country yes three or four times three or four cities that's we are we're all we're
01:08:33
meddling in countries all over the world engaging in wars or proxy wars we are behaving like a late stage Empire so
01:08:39
jaycal it's true that the United States has a wonderful system and that's what got us here to it got us to unipolarity
01:08:46
where we're the world's only superpower but now we're in a world in which other countries are rising to it's more
01:08:52
multi-polar agreed and whether we continue our dominance will depend on whether we make the right decisions
01:08:59
right now and right now we are not making the right decisions adding two trillion to the debt in peace time a
01:09:05
year makes no sense yeah you're a little ran it's it's like Wiley Coyote going off the cliff and pretending like if he
01:09:13
just doesn't look down there's nothing to worry about I have said from the beginning we need
01:09:17
to get spending under control but I am also incredibly enthusiastic about how we're performing in Innovation
01:09:23
and capitalism right now it is off the charts how well this country is doing on those Dimensions tomorrow if you have
01:09:28
any thoughts while we wrap up this thing no I think we ended up conflating a bunch of issues into one I'll just say
01:09:36
what I've said before which is that the United States is kind of the simplest safest bet and that these decisions are
01:09:42
made on a relative basis China unfortunately for them have has a huge demographic problem that will
01:09:52
diminish them economically and you're already starting to see it but it's going to get really exacerbated in the
01:09:57
next 10 or 15 years that's just the mathematical reality for a country that has literally zero immigration and no
01:10:03
solution Europe is not in a very great situation and the only place that's really firing
01:10:10
in all cylinders is India but it has a long way to go to build the infrastructure that can really scale and
01:10:15
make it as predictable as United States could it do it I think so but it's going
01:10:19
to take a long time that you know 50 60 100 Years of investment so I don't know I just kind of like try
01:10:26
to simplify for myself I think the US will be fine I think the dollar will be fine
01:10:31
I don't think it's right to spend this much but I think that politicians are incapable of cutting expenses and so I
01:10:37
would like to cut their revenues that's it it's a great discussion pre-burger I don't think you uh respect that I don't
01:10:46
think you understand what the audience actually wants to hear this is actually the core of the of the debate that we
01:10:52
just had well just do it feedback asked you which is just to play his clip in his words and then I have it right here
01:10:57
I think that the Saudi China trade if this happens and oil is sold in one is the beginning of I think the end of the
01:11:04
assumption that the US dollar is a global Reserve that's all that's what you said
01:11:10
that was your prediction that you said in the beginning of the end you said it twice now so if you
01:11:16
don't believe it's the beginning of the end of the US dollar as a global Reserve
01:11:19
yes you believe that if the US dollar will not be the global Reserve you said it twice
01:11:24
yeah and I disagree I think that we'll be will we Remain the global reserve for our lifetime that's all
01:11:31
it's a fundamental difference let's move on yes I'm reticent to bring up the cultural Wars but these uh have become
01:11:37
prominent so maybe we could have a meta discussion about these there are three things going on one we
01:11:44
touched on the book Banning I'm using air quotes there and there's been a lot of feedback
01:11:50
that's come in since then just to follow up briefly on it books are not exactly being banned it's
01:11:57
a much more granular and nuanced issue there was a bill 1467 that happened uh that Ron DeSantis did sign this said
01:12:07
that parents reasonably should get to see what's being put into classrooms and as
01:12:13
you might suspect this is being done at a very local level when you put all that
01:12:18
control at the local level you will have different constituents banned books that
01:12:24
maybe shouldn't be some of them are obvious ones that were too graphic that I think most parents would
01:12:30
agree shouldn't be in a school library other ones were horror books or young adult books you can look at all this
01:12:37
stuff just um search for pen banned books report pen America and if you there are instances of books
01:12:46
that shouldn't be banned being banned in instances of books that we'd all agree on but it is not exactly book Banning
01:12:51
it's letting each of the school districts make their own decisions and they're not going to make perfect
01:12:56
decisions when you put them on the edges so just to make that super clear I think
01:13:00
you're right to focus on the the terminology here because this is a question of what is put in the
01:13:07
school library that's it so that's not a ban right a band would be if you couldn't purchase the book for yourself
01:13:14
for your kids any parent can buy any book they want in Florida we do have an issue I think with uh the curriculum
01:13:22
where really important classic books are being removed from the curriculum for political reasons mainly in California
01:13:28
books like to Kill a Mockingbird or a Huck fair that was weird they're being removed because they're being accused of
01:13:34
being racist even though the whole point of those books is to I think call it out
01:13:39
call it out and teach kids about racism so there's a lot of stupid things happening from the left in terms of
01:13:46
removing books from the curriculum which I think is a much bigger deal than removing books from a school library
01:13:52
there's also things happening with like you know Ian Fleming's James Bond books being Rewritten like posthumously
01:13:59
because two seconds accuses sexism or Roald Dahl's books are being posthumously edited
01:14:07
so like books are literally being Rewritten in a way that their authors never intended that is positively
01:14:12
orwellian that really is that's right that's really wrong now on this on this DeSantis thing I mean look this is this
01:14:22
is getting to the level now of being a hoax one of the stories going around is that there was this book of poetry this
01:14:29
totally innocuous book of poetry that was being banned in Florida and I wanted to say about the poems yeah yeah so I
01:14:35
wanted to find out the truth of it well as it turns out like you said jaycal this is a Miami-Dade School District
01:14:42
a decision was made this is not by DeSantis this is made at the level of individual schools okay which are voted
01:14:48
on and their parents on these school boards so it's going to just follow the demographics whatever that local
01:14:52
community is right so basically what happened is this this book of poetry was literally moved from the elementary
01:14:57
school library to the Middle School library that's what happened yeah but all of a sudden this was spun on social
01:15:03
media and by the mainstream media as if DeSantis had banned this book of poetry to the point where Miami-Dade School
01:15:11
District had to put out a tweet correcting this so I never banned or removed it was just moved from one
01:15:17
library to another well that's really I think this is a super interesting point David where you and I are in agreement
01:15:22
you and I are both uh for freedom of speech and we're big Advocates of that and then there are decisions and you
01:15:29
could reasonably make this decision hey let the parents decide great when you let the parents decide you have to take
01:15:35
into account that these school boards could be hijacked by different groups of people or they could be very small
01:15:40
monocultures of you know little towns or cities here's the list by the way if anybody wants to look at this you could
01:15:46
actually look at the very granular list pen America keeps an index of all these they put the the thing in the chat here
01:15:51
and you'll see things in left right everybody in between some places are banning all the lgbtq books some are
01:15:59
Banning the critical race books or books by people of color other ones are Banning you know the James Bond novels
01:16:06
Etc so it's it's a free-for-all of parents executing their rights at a very local level
01:16:12
and you know I guess if you want parents to have a say in their schools it's going to be slightly imperfect and
01:16:18
variable but it's not like a censorship going on but there is censorship going on I guess
01:16:24
in some ways the political question is do you allow government bureaucrats to dictate to
01:16:31
parents what their kids are going to see or have access to and I don't think that's viable I mean
01:16:37
look parents could take their kids out of the school and homeschool them if they wanted yes so at the end of that
01:16:43
day so they have that right so why would you deny parents the right to determine
01:16:48
what's in the school library and it does seem like all of this goes back by the way some of these books that
01:16:54
have been removed are actually really questionable yeah Lord of the Flies will probably get removed because they don't
01:16:59
like somebody being labeled fat piggy piggy oh no no I'm saying right like there are
01:17:07
some great books that were written in an age where you know you just say things in a
01:17:13
certain way that aren't meant to be offensive but these books are very powerful and I don't know about you guys
01:17:18
but I had a bunch of books that I read when I was younger that had a huge impact on me and then I don't want those
01:17:24
books getting removed from the curriculum you're right Lord of the Flies those are all important books that I
01:17:30
read as part of the curriculum but all we're talking about it I think is even this very minor issue of what's in the
01:17:36
library obviously the parents should get to decide and some of the things that have been removed from the library are
01:17:40
pretty out there like for example there was one book that was educating kids on like how to get a grinder date
01:17:49
which they're not even supposed to be able to do right like grinders for 18 and up there are other topics that uh
01:17:55
like suicide and harm and other ones when do you introduce that to a child is that something that's third grade or you
01:18:02
know a suicide discussion when should that reasonably occur this is a crazy question but I'll ask it to you guys I
01:18:07
would rather Lord of the Flies be removed from a library then edited because then at least there's a
01:18:13
different place where you can get the original book oh for sure editing a book is so insane it's so mind control yeah
01:18:21
it's really bad that idea is very very bad because you're reading something thinking that
01:18:27
this is what the author intended and all of a sudden it's manipulated by some random false expert under some guys that
01:18:35
you had no decision making in that's really bad what's really I think important of this discussion is what's
01:18:42
how the Press frame something how politicians frame them and then how they're actually executed on the ground
01:18:47
can be very different so this has become a raw shock test for what caused you back and when you actually look at just
01:18:54
the list you'll see people in California people in Colorado Banning quote-unquote
01:18:59
Banning or just not including certain books in libraries it's parents having age-old debates about when do you
01:19:04
introduce certain topics to your kids that's your job as a parent what happens in the library is going to
01:19:10
be variable all right Nvidia is going for vertical integration they unveiled their GPU CPU Superchip called Grace
01:19:16
Hopper after the Navy Admiral obviously Nvidia Grace gpus is 72 arm newer version V2 CPU cores whatever that means
01:19:23
ecpu can deliver up to 370 score on a spec crate 2017 in base whatever that means uh I'm sorry I'm not familiar with
01:19:33
all the benchmarks is the peak of humor on the show go ahead listen we're talking about Pentium
01:19:39
chips I could have kept up here but I haven't kept up with it since the 90s we're talking about the Intel Inside
01:19:44
Pentium chips yes I could I did keep up with chip stuff yeah yeah no I I mean yeah when we got
01:19:52
past gigabit I stopped I think what's really interesting here is this is a really important moment where
01:19:58
like that design that Grace Hopper design which is basically a massive system on chip it's an entire
01:20:04
rig it's a GPU and CPU in memory and interconnects this is like them going for the jugular
01:20:10
this is what's crazy in A Moment Like This like that is basically them trying to create an absolute Monopoly because
01:20:17
if you have these rigs and these rigs are the most capable for Learning and you have their SDK Cuda
01:20:24
which is becoming the de facto software layer now that you use to write to their
01:20:28
h100s or Grace Hopper when it's available and the a100s that could create a level of lock-in that I think
01:20:35
people should be thinking about so if you're the hyperscalers like Amazon and Google and Microsoft
01:20:40
what is your reaction to this if you're Facebook what is your reaction to this and I think it's really important
01:20:47
because if these guys continue to innovate at this scale you're not going to have any alternatives and it comes it
01:20:53
goes back to like what Intel looked like back in the day which is an absolute straight up Monopoly except the
01:20:59
difference is that even when you wrote something to Intel CPUs you could actually run it on an AMD processor and
01:21:06
it would work with no changes but that's not necessarily the same so if you go from an a100 to something else
01:21:15
an fpga or some other silicon you have to translate the model and so it's very important to understand that
01:21:21
there's no extensibility here so like if Nvidia continues to drive this quickly and and continues to execute like this
01:21:29
it's a one and done one company Monopoly in AI at the hardware layer and I think
01:21:34
that that people are probably thinking about how to blunt that competitive outcome
01:21:40
but that's what I took away from that from that announcement from them which is like they are ready to go for the
01:21:46
juggler here in what looks like the most important Market that's emerging like what do you think
01:21:51
about the valuation trading at 200 times or 50 times the simple thing about price to equity
01:21:58
ratios is if you take the price equity ratio and you invert it that's your implied to earnings price earnings price
01:22:04
to earnings sorry and you invert it that's your yield right and so Nvidia is yielding at these prices I
01:22:12
think it's somewhere like two to two and a half percent Which is less than and it's almost half of a typical two-year
01:22:19
Bond and so when you have a yield that that's low you have to see it just grow absolutely massively
01:22:26
but there's this principle in capitalism which is in order to grow like that you
01:22:31
have you're generating so much profit that competitors look at it and say hold on you don't deserve that much profit
01:22:37
I'm going to take some of that you're a profit's my opportunity your margins my opportunity I think the your margin is
01:22:42
my opportunity is exactly what happens so I think what I'm waiting for Friedberg is like in the next two
01:22:47
quarters if AMD Facebook Google Microsoft and Amazon don't announce something substantive
01:22:56
there's a very good chance that Nvidia runs away with this and I think that that's very problematic
01:23:02
but in that case that price is cheap my bet though it's it's a different version of your bet but we get to the
01:23:09
same outcome is that I don't think that that's going to happen because it's just
01:23:12
too important and so I think that everybody other than Nvidia wants vendor diversity right you don't want to get
01:23:19
locked into one person one set of Hardware or One Clap you know one SDK you don't want that nobody wants that
01:23:27
except Nvidia and Nvidia shareholders so my bet is in the next two quarters you start to see some real action so
01:23:33
that folks start to have to balance their forecasts where it's not just a hundred
01:23:39
percent Nvidia but it's Nvidia plus plus and that's sort of what I would bet because it just seems like logical and
01:23:47
right because I otherwise it would it would be pretty derelict of these hyperscalers to just throw their hands
01:23:53
in the air and just give the whole Market to them and it would be derelict of AMD the other thing that's happening
01:23:57
is and and you know AMD is AMD is a great memory solution but they really don't have a deterministic AI chip and I
01:24:04
think that Lisa Sue needs to get needs to act decisively here and build something announce something buy
01:24:10
something but she needs to be really aggressive here if you look at the language models a lot
01:24:15
of them are taking less and less CPU GPU to actually build them so this has been
01:24:22
like a bit of a race or a competition on hugging face I showed the leaderboard on
01:24:27
another episode maybe two episodes ago but I've been talking to some of the people who are doing these language
01:24:31
models chamoth and they said there's massive inefficiency and so yeah and by the way the other thing that Friedberg
01:24:37
mentions jaycal is also happening which is like the Freebird you talked about this the atomization of these models is
01:24:42
happening I think even faster than when you first brought that up yeah so what took two or three million dollars last
01:24:49
year is now taking two hundred thousand dollars just through software improvements and code improvements crazy
01:24:53
and now they're thinking a number the other thing people are coming to is because of so much what's the term
01:25:00
hallucinations that people are using because of the hallucinations people are making narrower models that are deeper
01:25:05
in legal or just you know stack Overflow just core or just a vertical Inquirer they take less GPU but they get better
01:25:12
results because they've constrained the data set and that's resulting in you know better outcomes so I think this
01:25:19
could also be where maybe people don't need as much GPU or CPU at the same time so many people are going after it so
01:25:25
that could flip where the demand could actually decrease because of software efficiencies or
01:25:30
hitting some Benchmark that's reasonable enough what do you think Friedberg look I think it's performance
01:25:36
improves as cost declines like any economic model there's a pretty non-linear relationship
01:25:42
with demand so we'll find new ways to apply this technology I think the demand's only going to go non-linear
01:25:52
another thing that's happening is people are starting to build like Mosaic ml they're building Cloud independent
01:25:58
models so you can take the same model build it on your own proprietary personal cloud not educate chat cpt4 not
01:26:05
educate Bard but do it with your own model and um then you can move it from introduction and fine-tuning seems to
01:26:13
like get to the point that we can run these things on small machines cheaply quickly
01:26:21
and um it just it'll change the it'll change the applications you're saying run inference yeah not run training run
01:26:29
inference that's right oh no this is not good Biden just had a big fall on stage
01:26:35
at the U.S Air Force Academy graduation oh no I think he'll be okay but whoa it's not like he fell off the stage
01:26:44
oh it doesn't doesn't look good but it could have broke something well I hope he's okay I hope he's okay yeah I mean
01:26:50
we just had this whole talk about it yeah I mean it's just again I think like physical like these kinds of physical
01:26:54
things are are normal and I think people need to be much more empathetic about that kind of stuff I mean he was riding
01:26:59
a bike over the summer last year I remember and you look great yeah I mean FDR was
01:27:04
in a wheelchair so I don't care about that all I care about is mental acuity yeah me too he's okay by the way I I
01:27:12
want him to be well enough to run because I'm scared of some of the other Democratic candidates they might put up
01:27:18
say more like I don't want to get a president of Newsome or president Harris I mean I
01:27:25
don't think Biden is very good but I think he's better than Harris or Newsom Biden drops out who's the lead candidate
01:27:30
in your mind RFK really wow I would prefer RFK to Biden but I think what will happen if buying
01:27:38
drops out is we'll get a flood of establishment Democrat candidates in the race news maybe JB pritzker Harris for
01:27:45
sure there's a lot of differences between the left and the right but the one similarity is that there's a large
01:27:50
amount of Voters in both of those blocks who don't fundamentally like these establishment candidates hmm and I think
01:27:58
that that sentiment is exactly the same and so you know you can have a pro-trump
01:28:01
wave on the right just like you could have a pro RFK wave on the left and they are solidified by the same idea which is
01:28:08
I think you're going to see more and more Outsiders have a chance through the nomination process to get in
01:28:15
I think the military party will stop it I mean they shut down Bernie Sanders remember that it was Sanders against uh
01:28:21
Hillary Clinton and they they shipped him they rigged the primary against them yeah am I allowed to use that word
01:28:29
oh they just labeled our they just labeled the episode [Music] no but look I mean the the establishment
01:28:37
has in the Democratic party has a huge influence over the outcome because they control the super delegates right
01:28:43
they'll never wouldn't do some supercharge the Republican base I mean being like a coastal Elite and what's
01:28:51
happened with San Francisco and La I think that just drives out the Trump voters in a massive way that I said like
01:28:56
over a year ago I thought that the 2024 would be a Newsome DeSantis race I still
01:29:02
think there's like a 10 20 chance of that wow that would be wild be wild today 10.
01:29:10
what about Joe manchin what's the story there anybody have any insights on Joe manchin
01:29:14
we had a phenomenal dinner at my house last week he is so Charming okay so what do you know this what are you talking
01:29:21
about I don't know if you publicly disclose it or not well it's already happened we had a you know we had a fact
01:29:26
we had a fabulous dinner and he met a lot of people here and he's he's amazing did tax come to that and Heather and
01:29:34
Heather's amazing Heather's amazing too his daughter who she ran I think was Milan pharmaceutical incredible
01:29:41
executive Joe manchin would jump in yeah you think Tremont imagines fabulous if Biden
01:29:47
wasn't in Joe manchin would jump in you think I don't know I don't want to speculate any on anything like that but
01:29:52
I think he's I think he's an amazing American Patriot is that you're a guy Freeburg would you
01:29:58
go Joe manchin because he wants to control spending I don't know I don't know all right I'll tell you one of the
01:30:05
reasons why I like RFK Jr is that I mean there's so many issues that he's deviating from democratic party
01:30:11
orthodoxies in favor of free speech and again censorship he's in favor of civil liberties and against this like massive
01:30:18
surveillance state that we've created and on foreign policy he wants to end all the crazy Wars and I would say that
01:30:24
of all the candidates I've heard he understands the situation in Ukraine the most deeply
01:30:29
now both Trump and DeSantis have called for a ceasefire and that's good and I think RFK would work towards the
01:30:37
ceasefire too but RFK Jr Goes deeper and explains how the whole situation Ukraine
01:30:43
came about and so he understands this very deeply all right folks there you have it another episode of The Island
01:30:49
podcast for the dictator the architect David sacks and it was a king maker oh sorry I like
01:30:58
architect okay kingmaker sure King maker fake news you like architecture the whole thing was just like made up no
01:31:07
but I know but as a nickname whether you prefer architecture what do you prefer or King what did the article say King
01:31:14
maker the article's a king maker I said architect I think architect is bengali-ish the article is about a call
01:31:19
that never happened fake news with a person you don't know or the person I don't know
01:31:24
right okay that aside what what nickname would you like us to use going forward King maker that the whole article was
01:31:32
made up yes putting that aside architect can I go with King maker I like King maker I like architecture
01:31:39
Mr secretary please tell us which one yeah Secretary of State look I'm I'm a I'm a mid-level donor mid at best you're
01:31:48
mad subreddits are going crazy right now and then influencer I made it best however
01:32:00
there it's true that there are very few podcasters who probably donate anything you could be yeah Henry Kissinger and
01:32:06
Madeleine Albright highest ranking farmborn citizens to lead yes I think that you would be Secretary General
01:32:12
Secretary of State I'm just going to put that so you could be Secretary of State
01:32:15
cabinet I think you would be Secretary of State because you have the intellectual Firepower to actually not
01:32:20
get bamboozled on this stuff you'd hold your ground you know who actually I think was pretty good on on foreign
01:32:25
policy he doesn't get any credit was was Jared Kushner I was listening to an interview with him
01:32:31
and this happened like eight months ago and he was describing the whole situation in Ukraine and he says very
01:32:38
clearly that he and Trump understood that bringing Ukrainian to Nato was a red line for the Russians and they never
01:32:45
went there so they armed Ukraine but they were very careful to not make any statements about Ukraine coming into
01:32:52
NATO he understood that that was a serious provocation I'll post the interview in the chat
01:32:58
but it was with uh I think Gerard Baker for the Wall Street Journal so Jared understood the situation better than
01:33:04
most of these you know foreign policy Elite establishment types who don't understand
01:33:10
how their actions could be perceived as provocative by the other side well he uh
01:33:16
he's sure secured the bag after getting out of that gig two billion then you got
01:33:20
the Abraham records done and now binds this flush down the toilet because he's alienated the Saudis so much
01:33:27
they've gone to the the Chinese I mean the fact that there's flights between Israel and the Middle East Nations now
01:33:32
and they seem to have a common it's pretty awesome I don't think you can understand how much Biden has
01:33:39
alienated the Saudis do you want to shake buy one shake the man's hand what was the point of that I
01:33:46
I I'm not in favor of buying oh yeah what was that like a fist bumper pre-negotiated fist bump yeah it's a
01:33:53
little how insulting is that the one thing I loved about Trump was he was willing to meet with anybody my idea
01:33:58
foreign policy is meet with as many people as possible as often as possible and not go to war I would meet with Kim
01:34:05
Jong-un Putin Xi Jinping on the regular every country we should be with because that's how progress gets made not
01:34:12
meeting with him is yeah I mean it's not a reward I think there's a part of this military
01:34:20
industrial complex that believes a meeting with the president is a reward or an endorsement of the worst things
01:34:26
anybody's ever done it's not it's a meeting to try to make the world safer or to try to build common ground and so
01:34:33
that is not me or Jim cram or uh or however you want to try to frame it it's intelligent and I'm for intelligent
01:34:41
foreign policy which is talking to people let's talk about some people who said yes to come to all in Summit let's just
01:34:47
do a quick speaker around time I got to go to I gotta go to lunch I love you guys I love you besties yeah this
01:34:52
I'm done with this yes oh three brick I love you see you tonight Lord Rain Man [Music]
01:35:07
we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] fine quack besties
01:35:20
[Music] we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy because they're
01:35:33
always useless it's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow
01:35:37
[Music] we need to get Mercies [Music] I'm going all in