00:00:00
Can I ask a question about the nicotine pouches? Yes. Does it melt in your mouth
00:00:05
or do you have to spit it out later? You can spit it out. You can swallow it or you just savor it. I mean, you throw it
00:00:10
in like a you would a dip of tobacco. Okay. But you just let it sit there and then it suses your nervous system with
00:00:17
life-giving nicotine and it it really does feel like the hand of God is massaging you. But does it feel like the
00:00:24
high of smoking a cigarette? It's simultaneously, if you can imagine the Zen paradox, higher alertness
00:00:32
accompanied by deep relaxation. So, you you really are No, no, it it's a zen experience. You're like cat-like in
00:00:42
your readiness, but you're fully And how long does it last? I always have one going. Sometimes if things are, you
00:00:50
know, if I need it, I'll I'll put another one in. So, I've got 18 milligs of nicotine. But that gives me an unfair
00:00:56
advantage. You're banging 18 milligrams. Woo. That's impressive. I don't like to
00:01:01
because it everybody else kind of recedes into the background and I become this kind of colossus when I do that and
00:01:07
I feel guilty about it. Hubris is inevitable at that point. So I usually keep it to one. I mean I could use a new
00:01:13
addiction. Oh yes. What's the gateway drug level? Uh what would you prescribe? sits between caffeine and they sell a 3
00:01:20
mig but you know there's a transition like all all great addictions like it's not instant you you do vomit at first
00:01:28
but then but then your body acclimates it's kind of like heroin in that way you know like when you oric you just you got
00:01:37
to power through IA you heat twice and then you're addicted and then enlightenment
00:01:44
[Music] let your winners [Music] Rainman David and we open sourced it to the fans and
00:01:55
they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. [Music] All right everybody, welcome back to the
00:02:03
number one podcast in the world after Tucker Carlson's amazing podcast. That's right. Tucker is back here on the All-In
00:02:10
podcast with Chimath Polio Hapia, your chairman dictator and the Zar David Saxs. Not from the White House, he's
00:02:18
from the suite, but he's here back on the program looking great. Look at the collar. Brion. I ordered three or four
00:02:24
bronies after last week's show, guys. I did. I'm getting in the Brony. Well, I have the all- in expense accounts now.
00:02:31
What' you call it? Brony. Brion. He'll be paying for it over 72 months. 72 monthly payments. the layaway. You as a
00:02:39
firm or CLA. Pray for that. Hey, uh Tucker, last time you were here, uh you famously famously gosh, we been a
00:02:49
year of feedback on your last performance. Thank you for coming back. We got a lot of crazy feedback from the
00:02:54
private equity housewives, but I got more feedback. They love me. But you know what? You're
00:03:01
in you're in deep. you're in deep because I I'm here in LA and the Los Angeles studio wives group is really
00:03:09
really pissed off at you because they feel that they're the problem. They feel they're a much bigger problem than
00:03:13
private equity housewives. So, Hollywood Studio heads wives versus private equity
00:03:18
wives. I know some of them um and they're absolutely a bigger problem, but there are fewer of them. God, it's kind
00:03:25
of hard to get critical mass. Yeah, exactly. They're they're a smaller threat. They're kind of an elite unit.
00:03:31
You know what I They're like Delta Force. Got it. They have less money, too. You know, they don't get as much in
00:03:35
the divorce as these private equity wives. Got it. So, they they're coming in like a SWAT
00:03:42
team. If you want to send them in to deal with a very specific issue, great. But they're not going to cause as much
00:03:48
bedum globally as the private. They cause a lot of misery though, as one McKenzie Bezos. Exactly.
00:03:55
Oh my god. All right. Listen, let's get a plug in here. All-in summit, fourth year. Tucker's coming this year, I hope.
00:04:03
Uh, September 7th to 9th in Los Angeles. The goal, have the world's most important conversations, yada yada yada,
00:04:10
blah blah blah. Apply for a ticket. Allin.com/ yada yada yada or allin.com/summit
00:04:16
to apply for a ticket. Freeberg is out this week. So, Tucker is here and my lord, a lot going on in the news. Let's
00:04:23
start with the immigration protests slash riots slash ice actions in Los Angeles. I'm actually here last Friday.
00:04:34
Protests broke out after ICE raided Home Depot, a fashion wholesaler. In total, 44 people were arrested by ICE. 10 times
00:04:42
as many, 400 and counting, from the protests. They even ran into uh ICE that is ran into a strawberry field in Oxnard
00:04:51
uh to just randomly pick people up. It seems uh at least a half dozen Whimos were vandalized and burned. 20 plus
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businesses looted and uh Whimo narrowed their area and it's spiked to 30-minute wait times. Uh
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so that's a first world problem. Riders throwing bricks, Molotov cocktails, shooting fireworks at law enforcement.
00:05:11
Completely unacceptable. Two men were charged with throwing molotov cocktails at officers.
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Trump deployed the National Guard, 2,000 at first, then 4,000 apparently. And uh apparently there's a battalion of
00:05:25
Marines here, 700 of them. Karen Bass instituted a curfew downtown LA 8:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. And uh prosecutors,
00:05:33
federal prosecutors that is, are trying to identify hundreds of people. Nuome Bass denounced the raids obviously and
00:05:41
uh they're blaming Trump for escalating the situation. Trump and members of the White House responded by calling out
00:05:46
California's weak leadership and now we have protests popping up everywhere else. New York, Chicago, Austin, DC.
00:05:52
Tucker, you grew up in Southern California, I think. You I did. Yeah. LA and La Hoya. I mean, are these riots
00:06:00
more or less than a Lakers championship? Uh how concerning are they to you? Who's
00:06:05
to blame? Well, as measured by violence, they're less profound than, you know, what
00:06:11
happened in 2020 after George Floyd died. They're way less dangerous than say the Watts riot um or the Rodney King
00:06:20
riots in LA, but they're much more profound. I mean, it it really does. They're certainly a bigger deal than
00:06:26
anything that happened in Fort Sumpter, for sure, which kicked off the bloodiest
00:06:29
war in American history. The federal government has as a core duty uh the right and responsibility to enforce
00:06:36
immigration law and police the borders. That's what the government is. That's what the federal government is really.
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And so if you contest that, it is like a threat to disunion fundamentally. I mean, I think there's a lot at stake.
00:06:48
And we reached this point because a series of paradoxically weak federal governments allowed sanctuary cities to
00:06:57
continue literally for decades. each one its own form of insurrection against the
00:07:01
central government. And maybe maybe you don't believe that the federal government has a right to pass laws
00:07:06
restricting immigration. It's not in charge of the integrity of the borders. You know, that that's a kind of
00:07:11
philosophical or constitutional case I guess you could make. But most people accept that those are federal duties.
00:07:16
And once you accept that, you can't allow states or municipalities to flout the law any more than you could allow
00:07:21
Central High School in Little Rock to keep black students out or whatever. I mean, certainly federal troops have been
00:07:26
called in for much less. And I think the longer this continues, the greater the threat of disunion, the
00:07:34
greater the threat of reaching a point where you I don't know, you can't drive from New York to LA. We take a lot for
00:07:40
granted in the country. And the main thing we take for granted, I think, is freedom of movement between states. But
00:07:45
you could easily imagine that ending like soon in the same way that you can't drive from, and I cuz I've tried from S.
00:07:51
Apollo to to Rio in Brazil, pretty first world country. It's too dangerous to do
00:07:56
that. You could easily see that happening here. So, I think once the Trump administration commits to putting
00:08:03
down the riots, to enforcing federal law by force, it kind of can't back away from that. Like I, you know, and that
00:08:09
raises a question, who's funding these, etc., etc. And I think it's a really interesting question. We should find
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out. I don't think the only arrest should be on the scene. I do think the drug cartels are involved flexing their
00:08:20
authority in California. They have a lot of control in California as I'm sure you
00:08:23
know, etc., etc. But the bottom line question is, does the federal government have a right to enforce federal
00:08:29
immigration law? Yes. And if states are out of compliance with that, it doesn't have any option but to force the issue.
00:08:36
Traumatha, when you see this amount of paramilitary, milit literal military coming in, the dragging of, you know,
00:08:47
handymen from Home Depot, as opposed to the strategic way this started, which was, hey, we're going to go after the
00:08:53
felons, we're going after the gang members, the really bad folks. And then this time now it seems like, hey, we're
00:08:58
just going to roll up to a farm. We're going to roll up to a Home Depot. Just grab everybody. We'll figure it out
00:09:04
later if their, you know, papers check out or not. Are you in favor of the, hey, all 20 million got to go? I'll call
00:09:12
that the Steve Bannon position. Or are you into in the 5% of alien, illegal aliens who are criminals, they need to
00:09:19
go, but maybe a path to citizenship for the other 19 million. I think the president was asked a version of that
00:09:26
question today, Jason. And I think what he said is there are people that have worked for example on farms for 20 to 25
00:09:33
years or they work in the leisure industry. And he said we have to take a common sense approach to those people
00:09:40
because if you do take those people then it's creating a vacuum where these jobs
00:09:44
could get filled by folks that are essentially criminals or other things. So I believe that that's a reasonable
00:09:51
starting point. What I would say is where do we go? There are seven and a half legal, not illegal, legal immigrants in
00:10:03
the United States waiting for their adjustment of status. Those are doctors, those are lawyers,
00:10:13
those are scientists, those are family members of existing American citizens. There's an entire body of people that I
00:10:22
think we have to recognize that have been waiting in line and their first act in America was a legal action to come in
00:10:30
and contribute. And every time we start this conversation, we go to the plight of people whose
00:10:37
fundamental first action was an illegal action without understanding that there has to be actually a more balanced
00:10:44
approach. So yes, I think the president is right. common sense for the folks that have now been here for a very long
00:10:50
time. But we have to prioritize the people that started by saying we're going to wait in line properly and then
00:10:56
there's people in the middle. But I think that there needs to be a way to give those folks a chance to get their
00:11:01
affairs in order, but they should be playing by the rules. Got it. And I think it's unfair to reward not playing
00:11:08
by the rules. Okay. So some middle ground between the extreme all 20 million got to go and the
00:11:15
one example that I saw online Jason was give folks a stipend and a year. Yes. The stipen's been out there for a while
00:11:23
right to get their affairs in order and then Kaizen said that right Kaizen said that exactly and I think I think
00:11:29
Kaizen's clip is actually the most the most rational for the middle chunk. But I would really focus on these legal
00:11:37
folks and say what are we doing about those folks whose first action was to raise their hand, stand in line and say
00:11:44
I want to contribute by the rules that America sets. So reward them and then punish the illegal folks coming in.
00:11:51
Adjudicate everybody else or adjudicate everybody else. Love it. Okay, Sax, I'm going to play two clips here to level
00:11:56
this up and we can kind of look at this in a multi-deade way. Here's Reagan on immigration and then followed by
00:12:01
Clinton. It is bold men and women yearning for freedom and opportunity who leave their homelands and come to a new
00:12:09
country to start their lives over. They believe in the American dream. And over and over they make it come true for
00:12:15
themselves, for their children, and for others. But their greatest contribution is more than economic because they
00:12:22
understand in a special way how glorious it is to be an American. They renew our
00:12:28
pride and gratitude in the United States of America, the greatest, freest nation
00:12:32
in the world, the last best hope of man on earth. All Americans, not only in the
00:12:39
states most heavily affected, but in every place in this country, are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of
00:12:45
illegal aliens entering our country. That's why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders more
00:12:52
by hiring a record number of new border guards by deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before. We are a
00:12:59
nation of immigrants, but we are also a nation of laws. It is wrong and ultimately self-defeating for a nation
00:13:06
of immigrants to permit the kind of abuse of our immigration laws we have seen in recent years, and we must do
00:13:13
more to stop it. Okay, Sachs, my question for you is on a party basis, this seems to have flipped. We talked
00:13:21
about this before on the program, Republicans wanted immigration, NAFTA, legal reg uh even maybe an open border
00:13:29
where workers could go freely back and forth from Mexico, kind of like the EU. And uh Clinton
00:13:35
wanted to deport folks so that Americans get could have more jobs and that wages
00:13:40
would go up. Now, it seems to have flipped. Obviously, you're inside the administration. Disclaimer, disclaimer,
00:13:45
whatever you however you want to disclaim this. What's in the best interest of all Americans going forward?
00:13:50
Because we have an interesting wrinkle here which I'm sure you've been thinking about as the AI ZAR which is jobs are
00:13:57
going away in a lot of key fac. So you have to contend with what the American people want and AI and job
00:14:10
destruction or displacement that could be caused by it. So what are your thoughts generally and and I obviously
00:14:15
you work in the administration so I want to give you that chance to explain personal versus administration position.
00:14:21
Well my reaction is that you're doing everything possible to avoid the fact that LA is on fire right now and law
00:14:27
enforcement is being assaulted by riers who look like an invading army. They're rioting under a foreign flag. Yeah.
00:14:34
You're showing clips of Reagan and Clinton. What the hell does this have to do with the fact that there are riots in
00:14:40
LA right now? Oh, I was trying to This is the issue at hand. Oh, I was trying to level up the
00:14:45
conversation to talk about the big picture of immigration, but if we want to get down changing the conversation, I
00:14:49
think the No, I I'm I'm trying to expand. But Hold on, hold on, hold on. If you're going to accuse me personally
00:14:54
of like having a scale here, I'm happy to discuss law enforcement January 6th or this one. I believe you should not
00:15:01
beat up cops. I come from a family of cops. You know that we've been friends for over 20 years. My family is cop. My
00:15:07
family is firefighter. We don't approve of throwing moral tough cocktails at cops. Period. Full stop. I am insulted
00:15:16
if you even insinuate that. I didn't insinuate that, but we have not discussed the issue at hand, which is
00:15:22
you can feel free to go is burning right now. By the way, if you don't want to get deported, try not rioting under a
00:15:31
foreign flag. I mean, it's just a stupid way to advocate for your position if that's what it is. But that's that's the
00:15:38
topic of the week right now. I don't know why you're trying to uplevel this and talk about what Reagan thought 40
00:15:44
years ago. It's just not relevant to what's happening in the news today. Now, you asked what is the quote unquote
00:15:49
American position if there is one. I can give you some polling on that. So, first
00:15:53
of all, voters approve of the ICE raids in Los Angeles by 55 to 37. That's plus 18. Voters support the administration's
00:16:00
effort to deport illegal immigrants by 5837. That's plus 21. They approve of Trump deploying the National Guard by 20
00:16:08
points, 5939. Only 36% say the administration's gone too far, while 55% say it's about right
00:16:15
or too little. So at plus 19. And even the liberal uh Quinnipiac poll found that Democrats approved numbers are at a
00:16:24
new all-time low of minus 49, whereas Trump is now up to plus six in Morning Consult and plus eight in Rasmusen. So,
00:16:35
I think the American people approve of what the administration is doing here. And just to fact check, one thing you
00:16:41
said in the introduction, you mentioned this fashion wholesaler that along with Home Depot, you made it sound like these
00:16:46
raids were just happening willy-nilly, like there's some big roundup where they were just busting into places and seeing
00:16:51
who's illegal, checking people's papers. That's not what happened. This fashion wholesaler is a moneyaundering operation
00:16:57
for the Mexican cartels. This is according to Tom Hman. and many employees there are involved in very
00:17:03
serious crimes, drug gang and violence, murder, child rape, and there were warrants for their arrest. So, the way
00:17:10
that this whole thing started is ICE was serving criminal warrants that state and local authorities have no
00:17:17
right to resist. That's how this started. It wasn't random roundups. Okay. Okay. I was just there's reporting
00:17:23
that Steven Miller specifically said just he was disappointed with the number of people being round up and deported
00:17:31
and he said just go to a farm just go to Home Depot. So I mean that's the reporting. Okay. Well, I have not been
00:17:38
able to confirm that reporting. I don't I personally don't believe it. I think that what Tom Holman said is that they
00:17:42
were serving criminal warrants. That's how this started. Okay. Now, I think that part of the reason why the
00:17:49
Democrats are so unpopular here is they're basically perceived as excusing the lawlessness by saying that it's only
00:17:56
happening because the Trump administration's daring to enforce the law. And so once again, they're siding
00:18:02
with lutters, arsonists, and violent criminals just like in 2020. And who's who's siding? This is Democrats. Okay?
00:18:09
Because the Democrats, they said no violence. So that was many times Gavin Newsen said no violence. Karen Bass said
00:18:15
no violence. They they've been tweeting. They also Okay, great. They also are saying that this is all Trump's fault
00:18:21
that Trump started this. Bassid Newsome said that the National Guard wasn't needed because LAPD had everything under
00:18:26
control. But LAPD was at first told to stay out of the protests and when the violence erupted and that forced him to
00:18:34
step in, they were according to their own chief of police, Jim McDonald, quickly overwhelmed. So this is
00:18:39
McDonald. He said, quote, "We are overwhelmed. Tonight we had individuals out there shooting commercial grade
00:18:45
fireworks at our officers that can kill you. They'll take backpacks filled with cinder blocks and hammers, break the
00:18:50
blocks, and pass the piece around to throw officers and cars, even at other people. So according to their own chief
00:18:56
of police, they needed the help from the National Guard. So that's the real issue
00:19:00
here is that Bass and Nuome had this policy of of doing nothing and then engaging in denialism, pretending like
00:19:07
there wasn't a problem, and then when the problem got too big to ignore, they pretend like it's Trump's fault for
00:19:12
causing it. Tucker, what's your thoughts on should the Trump administration have
00:19:18
had such a show of force? If the reports are true that they're randomly going, you know, to a Home Depot, if that is
00:19:24
true, is that the right approach right now or is it, you know, a little too provocative and they should do this more
00:19:30
strategically in your personal opinion? Uh, well, considering that we have American troops in over a 100 bases
00:19:37
around the world in countries most Americans can't identify, it's a little weird to be shocked when on that rare
00:19:43
occasion they're used to keep the second biggest city in the country from burning
00:19:47
down. It seems like a the point of having a military is to keep foreigners from burning your cities. And these are
00:19:54
foreigners as David said. They're foreign nationals committing crimes beneath a foreign flag. So that if there
00:20:01
was ever a time to use the US military, it's then. And as noted earlier, you can't allow the states to be flagrantly
00:20:07
out of compliance with federal immigration law. And I have to say the core question for me as an American is a
00:20:14
really a fairness question. So the idea that, you know, people are breaking the law, but it's cool because they're doing
00:20:18
essential services, like, well, you know, I pay a lot in taxes. Maybe I pay 80% and that feels like enough to me.
00:20:23
And hey, man, do you really have a right to collect the the last 20%. I mean, isn't 80% enough? Like, back off. I
00:20:30
don't have the right to say that as an American citizen to an IRS agent, I wind up in jail if I do that or if I break
00:20:35
any law, by the way. It's a rule of law, critically important. No, but not only that, it's a double standard. And and I
00:20:41
live in a place where a lot of the population subsists on food banks and where there very few jobs and it really
00:20:47
is one of those places that NAFTA destroyed whose economy NAFTA destroyed and to see in the place where I live
00:20:53
immigrants get preference on housing on jobs which is actually true and I know that liberals watching be like that's
00:20:59
not really true. It is true actually and I and I wonder cuz the real number is not 20 million it's closer to 50
00:21:05
million. I think that's true uh illegals in the United States. Clearly, they can't all be deported by ICE. But I also
00:21:12
think if you have a system that hands out meaningful grants in effect, cell phones, travel vouchers, housing
00:21:20
vouchers, free education, food stamps to people who are here legally or who are here legally as refugees, you are going
00:21:27
to draw the world's poor. And I think it's fair to ask, do we want that? How do we benefit from that? And are we
00:21:32
giving more to foreigners than we're giving to our own citizens? And the answer is yes. And like how dare you at
00:21:38
a certain point like you get a revolution if you keep doing that. That's too much. It's too offensive. Got
00:21:42
it. So I think we all agree no violence on cops, shut the southern border and giving crazy amount. Let me just think
00:21:49
the National Guard should never brought in. You let me ask questions, don't you?
00:21:53
Do you think the National Guard should be brought in? Yes or no? If the local police can't handle what's going on, of
00:22:00
course they should be brought in. Sure. I believe that during are questioning that decision. You ask
00:22:06
me the question. I believe they should have been brought in for January 6th for BLM or for the LA riots if the local
00:22:13
police can't contain them. 100% I believe the National Guard should have been brought in for January 6th when
00:22:18
they were beating cops. I believe they should be brought in now if cops are being beaten. And I believe they should
00:22:22
have been brought in during BLM when cops were being beaten. I am pro cop. I come from a family of cops. So you can
00:22:29
ask me the questions. So Newsome and Bass are out of line when they say that the National Guard should not have been
00:22:34
brought in. I think well number one I think they should call the National Guard if they can't control it. I'm not
00:22:40
But that's their criticism of Trump is that he called in the National Guard. You agree that that was necessary. It's
00:22:45
obviously necessary. Just look at the TV. The still on fire. The cops are completely overwhelmed.
00:22:51
By the way, I find it comical that Well, let me stretch this one point then you can speak. Yeah. I find it comical that
00:22:59
permission the Massachusetts governor called up the National Guard when Dantis sent remember when he sent the 50
00:23:05
migrants over to Arthur's Vineyard. Yes. And they all freaked out and they literally called the National Guard in
00:23:11
because 50 migrants all of a sudden had been flown into Marthur's Vineyard. They
00:23:14
did. Yeah. Okay. But was that you can have you can have them or because there was riots? Well, that was when Dantis
00:23:20
was making a point about but that was to process them. They weren't rioting on Martha's Vineyard. These were just
00:23:26
nonetheless the National Guard was brought in and you know you can have thousands of people though riding in LA
00:23:31
but somehow the National Guard shouldn't be brought in. I we we're in agreement.
00:23:35
So you can try to force me to disagree with you but I'm in agreement. Anytime the cops are overwhelmed I think the
00:23:39
National Guard should be brought in. Period. Full stop. So we're in agreement on that. What I'm trying to get to is
00:23:44
Tucker, if you believe there's 50 million people, let's say the numbers 30 million. We we split the difference
00:23:49
between the two, 35 million, whatever it is. My question for you, how many should
00:23:54
be deported by ICE at $20,000 a person, which is the estimate that, you know, both sides seem to agree is what it's
00:24:01
going to cost. Should we deport a million? Should we deport 10 million? And then how, Tucker Carlson, would you
00:24:06
deport them? Well, I think the goal has to be full compliance with the law for everybody within our borders, citizen or
00:24:16
foreignb born, illegal, refugee, green card holder. If you're in the United States, you obey our laws. And if you
00:24:23
don't, we make a good faith effort to enforce them despite how powerful the political block may be. 50 million. So,
00:24:32
so of well, of by definition, or else why wouldn't I apply that same standard to my taxes, right? So, but how do you
00:24:38
do it? Citizenship. Yeah. Let's get into that. Yeah. Right. So, well, that's a hostage situation. It's like we've got
00:24:43
50 million here already. We've lied about the number for 30 years now. Wow. It's 50 million or 35 million. We need
00:24:49
them. everyone gets a path to citizenship, you know, that's a kind of crime actually. But the first step, and the
00:24:56
phrase has been devalued, but self-deportation, if you have a system where people come
00:25:02
to the United States to make their own way and take advantage of the freedoms offered in the economy, uh, they're
00:25:08
allowed to participate in the economy, then I think you could have a system where people really admire immigrants in
00:25:13
the way that they did when I was growing up and that I I still do in some ways. I
00:25:16
mean, some of my favorite people are immigrants and they all tell the same story. Came here with nothing, built
00:25:20
this great life, but you make everybody cynical and you sort of destroy the idea
00:25:26
of the virtue of immigration when you hand people stuff and give them preference when they arrive. And we
00:25:33
don't talk enough about what that actually looks like. We spend a lot more than 20 grand a person right now in
00:25:39
subsidies to people who aren't even allowed to be here. They pay into social security too, right? to the tune of 100
00:25:45
million years. Oh, okay. Right. No, no, that's just what was reported by our government. If we want to get conspiracy
00:25:51
corner, that's I think those are fake. I think those are fake numbers. Look, does
00:25:54
anybody really believe that 50 million illegals is a net benefit to the US economy? Are you serious? Have you been
00:26:00
to our cities? No, of course not. It's not. I actually probably a large number of them are a net benefit because
00:26:07
they're working in jobs that Americans don't want to take and we're at 4% unemployment. So, who's going to take
00:26:12
all those jobs if they get deported? Chucker, aren't But weren't you just saying that we're on the cusp of a of a
00:26:17
labor revolution where some you 20% of American jobs are going away in 2 years? It could be. Yeah. So that's the that's
00:26:23
the nuance in this discussion is 5 years ago we might be dealing. It's like a brick wall we're about to hit at high
00:26:29
speed. And I don't understand having accustomed an entire generation of tens of millions of immigrants to government
00:26:35
handouts what the social fabric is going to look like when that stops. Yeah. Can
00:26:40
I say something cuz I I Tucker is saying something really important which I agree
00:26:44
with. What should immigration be in a highly developed nation like the United States and my perspective is you have to
00:26:54
come and say well what is the goal? I think the goal should be to maintain supremacy. The United States is the most
00:27:00
vibrant economy in the world. It's the most important military power in the world. It's the most technically
00:27:05
advanced entity in the world. If we do not focus on maintaining our supremacy, I don't think any American wants to go
00:27:16
through the process of going from first to not first. And if you look back in history at all
00:27:22
of the other countries that have had to go through that transition, that is where revolutions and chaos happen. So
00:27:30
we should avoid that. So where does immigration play a role? It needs to play a role first and foremost in
00:27:36
technical, military, and economic supremacy. The problem, as Tucker says, is when you have five or six times the
00:27:43
number of illegal immigrants as legal immigrants, all of a sudden the idea of using immigration as a cream skimming
00:27:50
technique to reinforce the most capable people in the world to come here goes away because you can't have that
00:27:58
conversation. We have people languishing for 10, 15, 20 years on visas, okay? Their kids age out. They all go back to
00:28:07
India and other places. Why? Because we can't focus on that conversation, Jason, because we're
00:28:14
focused on how do we give amnesty to folks whose initial action was breaking the law. Absolutely correct. And this is
00:28:21
where the whole immigration conversation devolves. We are missing the bigger picture and you need to deal one second.
00:28:29
You need to deal with the illegal immigration thing in an extremely foundational way where you can defend
00:28:36
the decision. You started illegally and you have to now go and conform to the law which is where I'm trying to
00:28:43
steer this discussion. Number one, we all agree on closing the border. It seems like there's a a breaking
00:28:48
consensus here. Tucker wants to eventually deport everybody. You want to do something in the middle like Trump.
00:28:54
Sax, I'm not sure what your personal position is or if you want to give it. Do you feel we should try to have a path
00:28:58
to deport as many of these 20 30 million as possible or do you believe we should
00:29:02
have a path towards uh citizenship for them? What is your personal belief or do you want to not get Well, I I remember
00:29:09
when you asked that question to now vice president JD Vance at all summit and he
00:29:14
said that you basically address that problem the same way that you eat a sandwich, which is one bite at a time.
00:29:21
So that makes sense to me. If there's 20 million illegals, you start with the top
00:29:25
million who are violent criminals and gang members and you deport those. And that is what ICE was doing. They were
00:29:33
serving criminal warrants. And then after you successfully do that, then you see where you're at and you can address
00:29:38
the next bite of the sandwich. That makes sense to me. Now, look, I I think that we're not really addressing a
00:29:44
really core part of the issue here, which is for a couple of decades now, conservatives were demonized, and Tucker
00:29:53
in particular, I think you were demonized for warning about the policies that have created the mess that everyone
00:30:01
can see on TV right now. And that mess is we have a large unassimilated population of military-aged males who
00:30:10
are basically rioting right now under a foreign flag as if they were foreign invaders. We basically have allowed a
00:30:17
separatist movement into the United States. That's what it looks like to me. And I remember when Tucker was warning
00:30:22
about the the policies that might create this on his show for years, you know, virtually alone, probably alone on Fox
00:30:29
News, you know, you were called a racist. this was great replacement theory, blah blah blah. How can everyone
00:30:35
not look at what's happening on TV right now and say Tucker was right? You know,
00:30:39
that was really dumb. And look, I say this as someone from a family. I'm I'm one of the people that Ronald Reagan was
00:30:45
talking about. You know, my family and I came over here. We're immigrants, but we
00:30:48
came over here to assimilate. You know, we believe in the melting pot. Be careful. You might get canceled for
00:30:52
bringing up the melting pot. The melting pot's good. I mean, I think that was the
00:30:56
classic American model. Melting is totally good. You speak. I'm just saying you could cancel. That's what you're
00:31:02
supposed to do. Like why do why would anybody I came here because I wanted to be American and everything that American
00:31:08
meant. If I was bigger, I would have played football. You know, like there's all these things that I would have done
00:31:12
to assimilate more and more. I believe in the culture of the United States. That's why people should come, right? So
00:31:19
we came here, we assimilated, you know, high skill immigrants, didn't have a lot, but had good education and willing
00:31:25
to assimilate. That's very different than what you're seeing on TV right now. And again, if the people on TV just
00:31:31
wanted to protest immigration policy in the way that you're talking about, I mean, you're describing it in this like
00:31:37
very nice gental way, they would be peacefully protesting under an American flag, saying, "We want to be here. We're
00:31:44
willing to contribute." I think the issue was that's not what's happening. I I you can see that, right? I mean, they
00:31:50
they look like foreign invaders. I would say, by the way, this is like the dumbest PR that, you know, if this
00:31:57
debate is really about immigration, this is like the dumbest way for them to present their side of the argument.
00:32:02
Yeah. Because who wants to keep in this country a large unimilated population that is proud to march, not just march,
00:32:10
but actually protest and riot and burn and assault under the flag of another nation. I would say dollars to donation.
00:32:17
Majority of the people who are doing the looting and rioting are not actually immigrants because they have the ability
00:32:23
to be deported. The people who are doing that are the bad actors that we saw during BLN. The bad actors that we saw,
00:32:29
you know, in LA when the Lakers win. I've lived here for a decade and I am here right now. I can tell you it's
00:32:35
contained. And those 80 90% of those people are not the immigrants. The immigrants are hiding right now for fear
00:32:40
of being deported. But let's sort of talk about do the path. Well, where do you where do you guys want to go with it
00:32:48
here? I mean, uh, I can give you my opinion if you want. Well, Tucker, I mean, like I I don't know. I mean, I
00:32:52
don't want to speak for you, but I mean, I I I I do think that like Tucker should
00:32:55
feel vindicated on this issue for speaking about so many years. You feel vindicated?
00:33:01
I mean, I never doubted it. I grew up I was born in California in 1969 and I my family got there in 1850. I have some
00:33:08
sense of what the state was like um certainly through my childhood and it was an it was idyllic and it's it's it's
00:33:15
not you know the rich areas are great is great is still great I think I mean there are great Mount Shast is great
00:33:22
lots of great places in California um but fundamentally the state is a slum Latin American country and immigration
00:33:28
did that and I say that as someone who is pretty pro-immigrant actually my best friend's an immigrant I mean I I've
00:33:33
always admired liked immigrants um I'm hardly anti-immigrant or anti immigration, but the way we did it
00:33:39
destroyed the state. Immigration is what made California into a slum, and there's
00:33:43
kind of no way around that. And so, that's not an argument against all immigration. I I'm not making that
00:33:47
argument. I don't feel that way. But, uh, it's an argument against what we did in California. And rather than learn
00:33:54
from that, we're doing it in every other state. And I don't know why. And I think, you know, if the other side had a
00:34:00
reasonable argument, they would profer it. But instead, they call you names and try to turn you into some kind of
00:34:06
thought criminal or whatever. I don't care obviously. Um but it's a it's a sort of measure of how um little they
00:34:14
have to say in response. They're not actually trying to make the country better. That's kind of the main thing. I
00:34:18
have always thought immigrants are great because they did it make the country better, right? I mean I I think that's
00:34:23
demonstrable. But the people pushing our current policies don't have that as a goal. This is a kind of punishment for
00:34:30
something. And a lot of it's ethnic actually. It's a it's a kind of attack on the people who were born here. I
00:34:36
don't know where that hostility comes from. You can feel it though. And I think it's foolish to deny it. That is a
00:34:42
motive. They're trying to hurt the people who live here. And I again, I live in a place currently where I see
00:34:46
that happening. Um, and it drives me totally bonkers. And the last thing I'll say is if you think the way we once did
00:34:53
immigration was good and a lot of immigrants are awesome people and I do think that this is discrediting all
00:35:00
immigration 100% and it's turning people into pretty radical immigration restrictionists are like look I don't
00:35:06
want any more immigrants. Yeah, you know that's inevitable. Um but it's sad to see it.
00:35:13
By the way what you're saying is is the most true for immigrants. Legal immigrants look at illegal immigration
00:35:20
even more negatively than nativeborn Americans, which makes sense, right? I mean, they waited in line and other
00:35:26
people didn't. You would be really upset if somebody cut the line. Jason, what do
00:35:30
you think? Obviously, there's a lot of emotion around this issue. I think numbers help and I always look to see
00:35:35
what is the consensus amongst the group here and amongst, you know, Americans. Everybody wants the border closed. Trump
00:35:42
won on that. So, okay, we all agree the border should be closed. I think 80 90% consensus in that 80 90% of Americans
00:35:49
think we should deport violent criminals. Okay, we got consensus there. So then what's left is what do we do
00:35:54
with highskilled recruiting? I like to use the word recruiting and we had that discussion with President Trump here. He
00:36:00
promised to put a green card on every degree. I agree with him on that. I think we should be recruiting at least a
00:36:07
million or two million amazing people per year. 1 to two million amazing people. We should match that to what the
00:36:13
needs of the country are. If we need energy, if we need doctors, we should match that. Where we probably disagree
00:36:19
is I think the Democrats and the Republicans share equally in this issue that was created that Tucker pointed
00:36:26
out. Yes, there are 40, 30, 50, who knows what the exact number is. That's part of the problem. Here's a chart we
00:36:31
made. This just shows you under each of the last, you know, uh 50 almost 50 years of of presidents, how many people
00:36:41
net uh immigrated to the country. And as you can see, you know, it's been pretty
00:36:46
consistent. You know, around 3 million per and uh Clinton and Bush had a ton of immigration. Both uh Bushes were paid
00:36:55
for a lot of their donations came from corporates who wanted free migration. America created this. Hold on. Let me
00:37:02
finish my thought. Outlier here, Jason, though. Oh, well, yeah. Biden is the huge outlier. We We all agree on that.
00:37:07
Biden let it go yolo. And I understand people have a lot of resentment for that and rightfully so. And if you bring in
00:37:13
10 million people, you're going to let get a lot of bad guys. But you put this all together. My belief is that this is
00:37:19
a country of immigrants and that this country does great when hardworking immigrants assimilate. I think we should
00:37:25
take this raw firepower of these incredible immigrants who have been here for decades. If you've been here for 10
00:37:30
or 20 decades, pay a fine, pay some extra taxes, and we give these people a path to citizenship. And we recruit the
00:37:39
top one to two million people. That's my belief. You do that before or after the
00:37:43
people that have been waiting in line get a fair shake. I think I would start before or after. I think you have to do
00:37:49
it before because we created this. And I I I know that that's not something that
00:37:53
people want to take ownership of, but America created the situation. Bush created it. created Clinton America.
00:38:00
Yes. The country that we live in, our government allowed millions of people here and the Republicans did this
00:38:07
specifically in order to get cheap labor. Let me let me ask for what we did with these people. Let's just say that
00:38:14
you're an international Let's just say you're an international mathematics olympiad winner. You get recruited to
00:38:21
come to the United States on a student visa. You crush it. Let's say you go to MIT and then you go and do a PhD at
00:38:28
Caltech and then you get recruited on an OPT visa by Google and you're just crushing. Awesome. And and you're saying
00:38:36
that that person Oh, no. Sorry. That's a more subtle question. That person we should recruit. As I said very clearly,
00:38:41
recruit 1 to 2 million. They're currently waiting in line, Jason. Yes. So, let's just So, I'm saying yes, let
00:38:48
them in. And yes, a path to who do you prioritize? You have one. You can do both at the same time. No, no, you
00:38:53
don't. Can of course you can we could have one group recruiting a million to 2 million highly skilled labor highly
00:39:00
skilled individuals of the type you're describing while having another group. We can do two things at the same time.
00:39:06
Chimoth absolutely you can you're you're giving a false question here. Then we take the person who's been here for 20
00:39:12
years as a dishwasher as a nanny who has been an amazing citizen who has been paying into social security. give them a
00:39:18
path, a compassionate path. And we as America and Americans should take ownership of the fact that we allowed
00:39:24
this and the people who allowed it were Republicans and Democrats. We allowed these people to come in to work in our
00:39:30
restaurants and fields, which is what Trump said today. Trump is in agreement with me. That's not what he said. He
00:39:37
said something. He said he wants to not have those people leave. It's just amazing to me that on this podcast
00:39:44
during the Biden years, you were echoing this party line that the videos of, you
00:39:49
know, mass migration, caravans streaming across the border, going through the holes in the wall. You said those were
00:39:54
videos cherrypicked by Fox News. You told the party line that there was no problem. Now all of a sudden, now all of
00:40:01
a sudden you're saying it was a bipartisan problem. No, no, fact check. I said we are we don't know because we
00:40:06
don't have the the metrics and we don't have a good system, which we all agree on. There's no good system. Anybody who
00:40:11
went down to the border was saying that it was wide open, right? And as we got that data, I said this data on the
00:40:16
ground shows we should shut the border. That's always suddenly became very empirical about the issue. I I've always
00:40:22
been empirical about it and I've also been compassionate. This whole like both sides are to blame thing kind of ignores
00:40:27
the fact that you had the Trump revolution in 2016. There is some truth to the idea that both parties neglected
00:40:33
the problem. If you go back far enough, like you know, Tucker will remember this
00:40:36
when Bob Bartley was the editor of the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, they actually supported a constitutional
00:40:41
amendment in favor of open borders. I mean, they really believed in this whole idea of pull free trade, open borders,
00:40:49
free flow of capital and labor. Okay, but that was a long time ago. And you know, with the rise of Trump in 2015,
00:40:55
2016, it became a different party. Trump got elected on building a wall. Yeah. And what happened? The Democrats fought
00:41:03
him tooth and nail. They tied him up in litigation. He was able to build hundreds of miles of wall, but there
00:41:08
were uncompleted parts of it. And when Biden came into office, there were large pieces of the wall that were still on
00:41:15
the ground just waiting to be erected. And Biden sold them off as scrap metal for two cents on the dollar. Do you
00:41:20
remember this? And then Biden and the Democrats proceed in favor. Hold on a second.
00:41:27
Please don't frame it as I'm against that. Okay, just forget about you. Just you you said Democrats and Republicans
00:41:31
are a blamed for this. Not in the last not in the last eight years. No. Oh yeah. No. No. Biden Trump wanted a wall.
00:41:38
Yeah. Biden. Yeah. Opened up the border and Democrats supported him in that and they thwarted every Republican attempt
00:41:46
to close the border for three years. Hold on a second. For three years they gas lit and pretended it wasn't a
00:41:52
problem. Then when it became undeniable, they claimed that Biden didn't have the
00:41:57
executive authority. So they would need a new act of Congress. That was also total nonsense. As Trump said in the
00:42:02
State of the Union, you didn't need a new law. You just need a new president. Look, if you want to go back 20 or 30
00:42:08
years, you can blame both parties. If you want to talk about the last 8 years, there's only one party to blame. One
00:42:14
party, the Democrats. And that is why you look at the polling right now, Democrats, their party all-time low. It
00:42:21
is, let's get the exact number, -49. 21% approve of Democrats, 70% disapprove because they know that Democrats cause
00:42:29
this problem and Democrats are the ones denying. They're the ones basically making excuses for the disorder and the
00:42:36
chaos right now. The only Democrat The only Democrat who's actually talking sense right now is the one with a head
00:42:42
injury, ironically, Federman. He's a lone voice here. I want to pull up this quote. Don't make
00:42:51
dude that's No, I mean it's amazing. No, I mean it's it's kind of sad. But look,
00:42:56
I'm agreeing with Federman. Federman says caveat that he hit his head. I don't know what it is about Democrats.
00:43:04
I don't know what it is about Democrats. It takes a head It takes a head injury for them to talk sense. Okay. It's like
00:43:10
a Bullworth thing. Anyway, Federman said, "My party loses the moral high ground when we refuse to condemn setting
00:43:17
cars on fire, destroying buildings, and assaulting law enforcement." He's talking about January 6th. I unapolog
00:43:23
unapologetically stand for free speech, peaceful demonstrations, immigration, but this is not that. This is anarchy
00:43:29
and true chaos. So, kudos to Federman, but he's the only Democrat out there. He's a low voice condemning the
00:43:35
violence. And Tucker's our guest. We're going to give Tucker the last word on this topic before we go on to the next
00:43:41
one. And you are 100% correct. Biden 10 million net im immigrants and Trump 3 million which sounds like a lot but is
00:43:48
actually the lowest in like 10 administrations. The lowest since Reagan. Tucker, you're our guest. Wrap
00:43:53
us up here. What should we think? I think that we should measure the health of a country at least in part by
00:44:00
the condition of its cities, including the cleanliness of its cities. And by that measure, our country is
00:44:07
collapsing. Our our cities are a disaster. and the the richest part of the richest cities are fine and the rest
00:44:14
of them are just absolutely awful. And so I think that has got to be just job one. If you want to renew the United
00:44:21
States, you have to make sure its population centers are clean, safe, orderly, but especially clean. There's
00:44:27
something really important and I know that the left just instinctively discounts that, but cleanliness is next
00:44:32
to godliness. And your city is a reflection of your self-respect, how you feel about your nation, your patriotism.
00:44:39
And if you allow it to become like Paris or New York, covered in graffiti and filth and random people from other
00:44:46
countries selling fruit on the street and begging and having sex in ATM vestibules and just like the whole
00:44:52
Midtown Manhattan, Central Paris experience, like that's a sign your civilization is going under. I think
00:44:59
it's really really important and I do think you know that decay is not entirely caused by mass immigration but
00:45:05
mass immigration has made it much worse and I just know that from walking around
00:45:09
cuz I like to walk around cities. I think it's a national emergency and the riots are just the most fluid expression
00:45:15
of that. You know a burning car is something you can't ignore but we do ignore the condition of 6th Avenue at
00:45:21
49th Street. like how can a self or the condition of Penn Station or you know of
00:45:26
our airports like how can we allow that? Um so if I were in charge I mean I would
00:45:32
make you go to Dubai or Doha or Moscow or some place that has a sense of itself when we got soba in Tokyo remember two
00:45:40
years ago and we were talking about this exact issue it just well but it's true I
00:45:45
mean Tokyo is the most radicalizing experience for an American. Everyone who goes there is like I can't even deal
00:45:51
with this. I'm so angry that we've put up with what we're putting up with. I had to talk it in. You did. Let's not
00:45:57
overthink it, I guess, is what I'm saying. It's not even about the Constitution. It's about litter. Yeah.
00:46:02
Okay. Tucker gets the last word on that. And now David Saxs gets to take his incredible victory lap. Economic data
00:46:09
has been objectively pretty great the last two weeks. Tariff revenue spiked 23 billion in May, 2x from February. So
00:46:17
there we go. we see the impact of a little bit of extra income. Inflation continues to come down and uh what are
00:46:25
we at? 2.4%. Across the board, there's some pluses and minuses in there. We'll get into it
00:46:31
later. GDP. Okay, this is the leading GDP prediction model from the Atlanta Fed. Could be as high as 3.8%. Again,
00:46:40
this is a prediction for Q2. Q2 is obviously not over, but this would be a pretty big jump over Q1. Despite all
00:46:46
this positive data, the deficit remains the sticky issue. Some of our friends might have some issue with this and been
00:46:54
vocal about it. In May, the US had 371 billion in revenue with 687 billion in spend. Not good. Big high burn rate,
00:47:03
$316 billion deficit. We paid $90 billion in May in interest on the debt almost up to a hundred billion a month.
00:47:14
And uh there's a nice key chart uh which we all like. We could double click on that if anybody finds something
00:47:19
interesting in here. Here's your deficit tracker. What I'll highlight here for you is those first two lines 2020 and
00:47:25
2021. You got to kind of give a mulligan there for the COVID years and uh purple
00:47:31
2025. We are a bit ahead of the last couple of years. We're 13 our spending now and you know obviously the debt
00:47:39
service is a big part of this. 13% above 2024, 20% above 2023 and 65% above 2022.
00:47:47
The balance sheet of the United States is really bad right now. Sachs, I'm going to start with you. This obviously
00:47:54
has been an emotional issue and uh oh, apology. I just noticed forgot to hit publish on last week's episode, but
00:48:02
let's let that go. Uh it won't happen again. Sachs, what are your thoughts here? Well, I mean, you'll recall that
00:48:10
back in early April, Jim Kramer predicted we'd see a Black Monday in response to Trump's tariffs. And that's
00:48:16
all the proof that we should have known that we were about to get a bunch of good economic news. Uh and it wasn't it
00:48:22
wasn't just Jim Kramer. I mean, Larry Summers was on our pod with that big debate that we did and he was predicting
00:48:28
doom. And what we're seeing now is good economic news is breaking out all over. So Q2 GDP on track for 3.8% according to
00:48:35
the Atlanta Fed. The May jobs report was above expected plus 139,000. CPI, you know, inflation down to 2.4%.
00:48:44
So growth is back. Inflation is low. And what you saw over the last few months was the elites in both parties, I'll
00:48:52
give you that, have they were scaremongering on tariffs and predicting doom and they've been proven to be out
00:48:56
of touch with popular sentiment and reality. I mean, you don't want to spike the football too soon, but things look
00:49:01
really good right now. Yeah. And I mean, in fairness, when the Trump shock and awe with the tariffs, he came out pretty
00:49:08
strongly, Zach, you will admit, and the market did tank massively for about 30 days. Tucker, what's your take on the
00:49:15
economy today? This debt, does it concern you? And I'm wondering what because there seems to be a little bit
00:49:22
of a rift inside of the Republican party on the BBB, not bill back better, but the big beautiful bill. What's Tucker
00:49:30
Carlson's take? I'm curious, on out of control spending, the deficit, and this bill in relation to that. Well, I mean,
00:49:38
I have the world's most predictable views. I believe in physics. So, you know, an unpayable debt tanks your
00:49:44
country at a certain point. That was pre-existing. It's accelerated as you noted. I I don't know a single person
00:49:51
who's got a any kind of plan to fix it. I think we're just going to ride it into
00:49:55
whatever the point of oblivion is. But I would just say on tariffs, you know, my
00:50:00
you've got the reverse Kramer. David was saying that's his measure of economic forecasting. For me, it's the Wall
00:50:06
Street Journal editorial page. Whatever they're for is poison. um generally speaking and anything that drives them
00:50:12
insane is a virtue. And I just can't imagine a policy more perfectly designed to just make them like explode than uh
00:50:23
Trump's tariff announcement. And I and I have to say, I mean, I've been kind of pretty conventional Republican my entire
00:50:29
life. I remember when I decided the Iraq war was a bad idea. That felt like an outlaw, you know, idea.
00:50:37
What What led you to got Uh well, I went to Iraq um in December of 2003 to see where a friend of mine had been killed
00:50:46
and um so I was there right after the invasion and I just immediately recognized this is not we're we're not a
00:50:51
good colonial power because we won't admit that we are. We won't admit that we have an empire, therefore we can't
00:50:56
admin administer it in a rational way. Um just the obvious stuff. But anyway, the point is the last remaining kind of
00:51:03
unexamined orthodoxy in my head was free trade. And I happened to be just by chance at the White House the day of
00:51:08
that announcement. And I remember thinking, man, if this works, what a caper, you know? I mean, I don't know.
00:51:15
Worst case scenario in your mind of, you know, this tariff negotiation. Obviously, there have been multiple
00:51:22
rounds of it. I'm not gonna use the term taco, but it does seem like we've shifted from shock and awe to maybe like
00:51:31
kind of bore. It's kind of boring like and and that does seem to be Trump's approach, right? He in negotiations big
00:51:37
bang and then fall back to a reasonable position. So, I think we're in the reasonable position phase. What does
00:51:43
success willing? I I hope I pray that's what we're seeing on Iran right now. Um but you're absolutely right. I mean,
00:51:49
that's sort of the nature of negotiations, of course. Um, and there is nothing in writing with China, so far
00:51:55
as I know, and it'll be reassuring, I think, when there is. Um, but in general, we haven't seen what Jim Kramer
00:52:03
and Larry Summers predicted, and that itself is amazing. It's amazing and it it causes you someone like me is sort of
00:52:09
on the sidelines of the economic debate, but watching carefully, it does make you
00:52:13
sort of wonder like what other absurd midcentury orthodoxies about economics have I internalized that just aren't
00:52:20
true, right? Cuz that was the biggest of all. Tariffs are, you know, they caused
00:52:24
the Great Depression. We know that. And and so what if like you can have a kind of mixed approach with some trade
00:52:31
barriers that are tailored to your benefit and that sort of works in a longitudinal way. If that's true, holy
00:52:38
smokes. And it looks like it might be true. So it's been true for the other side, right? They have been doing that.
00:52:44
So if it's for China and South Korea and Australia, why wouldn't it be true for us? It seems like we're the sucker at
00:52:50
the poker table. Well, I think you're right. I guess what I'm all I'm saying I'm making a pretty pedestrian point,
00:52:55
but I can't get past it, which is this is so far from what the Republican party stood for 10 years ago, which was
00:53:04
neoconservative foreign policy, free trade, um open borders, as as you noted, maybe a little more than 10 years ago,
00:53:11
but 15 years ago. Um this is this is the mirror image of it, and it just blows my
00:53:16
mind. And it's it's such a better version. It's such a more reality based, flexible, thoughtful uh version than we
00:53:23
had before. And I'm just really and most Republicans in the Senate are not even aware this is happening. They are the
00:53:28
most recalcitrant people in the world. Also the dumbest. So most of them, you know, don't accept any of this. But just
00:53:34
as an observer, I'm thrilled to see it. All right, Chimath. Uh actually, can I get Can I um Oh, yeah, sure. No, no, no.
00:53:42
I mean, I know you like to go right after Tucker. It's very engaging. Oh no. You got me thinking about these. Um,
00:53:47
this is his dream. When you're on, he cannot in the group chat. He's so excited. Tucker, when you're coming on,
00:53:52
it's 48 hours of Sax being like, "When does when is the pod coming? Is Tucker really coming?" That's how I feel about
00:53:59
David Saxs. Trust me, if you if you had a camera at my dinner table, you would hear something similar. Oh, boy. Here we
00:54:05
go. Go ahead, Sax. It's uh it's great to have someone to the right of me on the podcast for once. You know, it's not an
00:54:11
easy task. I we invited Alex Jones and Steve Aman to have him respond. Tucker got me thinking about these
00:54:19
unexamined orthodoxies. And that is a good way of putting it. I mean, you know, cuz I studied economics in college
00:54:25
and you know, I learned that the Smoot Holly tariff caused the Great Depression. And it's like in hindsight,
00:54:29
you're like, how can that even be true? Like a tariff is basically a tax rate on
00:54:33
foreign goods. And you're saying that, you know, increasing taxes on foreign goods all of a sudden cause a great
00:54:38
depression. It doesn't make any sense when you actually like just think about it. Now, what caused Great Depression?
00:54:44
Well, I would say when thousands of banks went under and there's no FDIC and everyone just got wiped out by that and
00:54:50
it's a systemic risk. So, like one bank failure leads to the next one. That's so
00:54:54
obviously what caused the Great Depression is nobody had any money left. They all got wiped out when all the
00:55:00
banks went under at the same time. Right. Well, and then what how do we take a something that happened in the
00:55:06
20s and 30s and apply it to a much more dynamic world like today? It doesn't make much sense. Well, I think what
00:55:12
happened is we had all these post-war meaning postw World War II understandings that kind of got
00:55:17
hardwired into the consciousness of our intellectuals. And if you think about the the era right after World War II,
00:55:26
the US was like the last great power standing. Um it was us and the Soviet Union, but they kind of were had a
00:55:31
different system. they were not part of the um let's say the the free world. They're part of this communist block. So
00:55:38
with in in terms of the the quote unquote free world, we were the only country that was relatively undamaged
00:55:44
and we had this giant manufacturing base. And so yeah, obviously that the the fewer trade barriers existed across
00:55:51
the world, the better it was for the United States because it was our goods and our factories that basically were
00:55:56
able to sell all over the world. And so we proceeded to define a world order in which we just kicked down every single
00:56:02
barrier to free trade because that's what benefited us. Now, I don't know that that means that that situation
00:56:09
always benefits us in all times and all places. I mean, the big issue we have right now is that you've got a rising
00:56:16
China and they have become the scale producer in the world for all sorts of goods. They now have this giant
00:56:22
industrial base that we seem to have exported to them. And again, it was and we exported a lot of that because of
00:56:29
this um free trade ideology that got so entrenched in our thinking that we just stopped thinking about under what
00:56:36
circumstances this might not continue to be good for us. And so we've ended up becoming dependent on them for all sorts
00:56:42
of goods that we now realize are highly strategic. And we're trying to figure out well how do we onshore these things
00:56:48
because it seems really dangerous now for us to be singlethreaded on you know on potentially adversarial power for
00:56:56
rare earth or you know rare earth magnets and chips and pharmaceuticals and all these things but you know our
00:57:03
intellectual class just never seems to revisit any of its assumptions they just kind of have these dogmas chimoth
00:57:11
building on Sax's sort of cottification of truths heristics and not getting questioned how much of it is we just
00:57:19
codify hey trade good you know open borders good free trade good and how much of it is just incentives like I
00:57:26
mean rich people paying off politicians to have more free trade independent of party seems to be what's happened over
00:57:32
the last 10 20 years it just made more sense to put workers and to send jobs to the lowest cost place to increase
00:57:39
profits for American companies which let's face it although it may have hollowed out our manufacturing and
00:57:45
created this weakness in the four or five areas you point out every week that we need to reinforce quite eloquently
00:57:51
the real issue is we did that because we wanted to make money. We wanted to have
00:57:56
the most highly profitable companies and we did succeed. But maybe we succeeded too much and our companies benefited
00:58:02
more than the middle class. You got Josh Holly out there saying, "Hey, we should
00:58:05
go to $15 minimum wage federally from this." The wrong the wrong people won in the early in the early 2000s. I think
00:58:14
that there was a war of ideas and there was a group of people that advocated for
00:58:20
this reckless form of free trade and this globalist view like every country is going to meld into one mega monolith
00:58:28
country organization that'll get governed out of New York by the United Nations and its sleeve organizations.
00:58:36
And that worldview won. But it was the wrong worldview. And it didn't acknowledge that we have
00:58:44
competing philosophies, competing priorities, competing ideals of what the future looks like. And I think that we
00:58:53
need to go back and reset all of those things. If you just take where we are, if you can just put the Sanki diagram
00:59:00
back up, there's a couple things that are really worth noting that people need to fundamentally understand. I said a
00:59:06
couple weeks ago that I thought the GDP print was going to come in hot. I think everybody now is sort of where I am. So,
00:59:14
let me give you the next thing. Let me just ask you though, why is it hot? Do you have a thesis on why GDP spikes so
00:59:20
much or potentially did that's obviously a forecast. I don't know the puts and takes yet. And
00:59:26
I think when we see the print, we have I have a way of forecasting this stuff, which is a bunch of signals that my team
00:59:33
and also many macro teams all around the world, the bond vigilantes to the hedge
00:59:39
fund guys, they all feed it to me. And what I was noticing was that we were going to come in, I said in the low 3s.
00:59:49
And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are, but I think it's going to be in the low to
00:59:53
mid-3s. is going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting. So let me just give you my next
00:59:58
prediction. My next prediction are two really important things. What this Sanki diagram looks at which is a snapshot of
01:00:06
the balance sheet and the health of the United States in May misses in my opinion two very important things that
01:00:14
have to change. The first and this is a positive for the Trump administration and the United
01:00:21
States economy is we are run rating 300 to400 billion dollar above forecast in terms of our receipts meaning the
01:00:33
revenues that we will take in and you get to that number by looking at the last three months of tariffs and
01:00:40
forecasting forward assuming a reasonable balance here. So, back to Tucker's point. Yeah, we all thought
01:00:47
that this was like a boogeyman that you weren't allowed to touch it and that if you touched the stove, you were going to
01:00:52
get burned. The mathematical reality is that this is actually going to work out much better
01:00:59
for us than we anticipated and it's going to be somewhere in the range of 300 to 400 billion of extra revenue per
01:01:05
year. That's a huge win. So, why is that important? That then sets up this next cataclysmic
01:01:13
thing that we're going to see over the next 60 days, which is what does Jerome Powell do?
01:01:21
If Jerome Powell stays politicized, his incentive will be to keep interest rates where they are.
01:01:30
If Jerome Powell looks at the conditions on the ground, especially when you start
01:01:36
to see inflation stay in the low twos and approach 2.0, The real thing that he's going to be
01:01:43
under tremendous pressure to justify is why are you not cutting? And just to give you a sense of how
01:01:50
important that is, if we cut by 100 basis points, that's another $300 billion. Now, in that case, that's not
01:01:57
money that we get in, but it's money we don't have to spend. So if you add these two things together,
01:02:04
we are in the next 60 days going to have to reforcast the American balance sheet
01:02:10
where this is or we're actually going to be able to positively forecast an extra
01:02:16
600 billion. 300 billion of incremental revenue and 300 billion of savings. Jason, if that happens, watch out. What
01:02:25
does that mean? Watch out. It means that every single risk dollar is going to run
01:02:30
to America. Every single one. Yum. Yum. Forget Japan. Forget Europe. There is no
01:02:36
place to put your money except the United States. So, I think that we have to figure out
01:02:44
how to get Jerome Powell on the side of America versus on the side of what could
01:02:48
happen politically. Because I think that there's probably a version in his head that says, "My gosh, if I do this, it
01:02:55
helps Trump and if I don't do it, it hurts Trump." Practically that is true. But the
01:03:01
reality is the conditions on the ground justify cutting. Okay. So you're predicting this 300 billion two
01:03:08
different ways in and out 50 billion a month. It starts cutting this deficit pretty significantly. your claim, I just
01:03:16
want to be clear here, is that Powell is playing politics, not working towards the dual mandate, which is very clear,
01:03:25
controlled unemployment at the 2.0 rate and full employment. Your belief is that
01:03:30
he's playing politics. Yes. I I believe that these decisions are political. I think that the Federal Reserve has
01:03:36
veered away from actually controlling the money supply in the best long-term interests of the United States and more
01:03:44
towards what benefits the short-term. And this ties back to how I started this. What is Powell's motivation?
01:03:51
Somewhere in the 2000s, Jason, we transitioned away from having the strategic 20-year conversation about
01:03:58
what's in the best interest of America. And instead, we started to have these uniolar globalist conversations. And the
01:04:05
people that got into these centers of power, the IMF, the World Bank, the Federal Reserve, the central banks
01:04:12
around the world, they all worked towards an agenda that is now being undone. I'll give you an example of
01:04:17
where this is now being undone. Just today, the World Bank undid a rule around being
01:04:24
able to fund nuclear energy. And you would have thought, well, hold on a second. The World Bank steps in to backs
01:04:30
stop all these developing countries when they're in the middle of all this nonsense, right? And if you think about
01:04:34
a country that's developing, what is the single biggest input to that country? Energy.
01:04:39
And you think for the last 40 years of multi- trillion dollar bailouts, we never demanded abundant clean energy in
01:04:47
the developing world. Of course not because it was a political decision. Okay, Tucker, do you believe the Fed is
01:04:53
playing politics here? It's kind of hard to believe if Pal was placed by Trump and Biden. He's there was consensus
01:04:59
there and his mandate is to get to 2.0 and full employment. He's kind of trending towards that. He's made a
01:05:04
couple of cuts. The markets predict he is going to make a cut. Here's poly market for September showing 80% chance
01:05:10
of a cut. Let's take a look if that's changed since the last time. Uh so in September, no. Okay. Well, this has
01:05:16
changed. Uh 32. All right. So here's your poly market fed decision in September. No change. 53% 25 bips 43 50
01:05:24
bips 3.8. So you put those two together, you're you're roughly at 47% chance of a
01:05:30
cut. 53% chance of no cut. So 50/50 coin toss. Do you think the Fed is playing politics? Do I think the Fed chairman
01:05:38
who who lives in who lives in Chevy Chase is a political actor? I mean, are you serious? What's his motivation then?
01:05:46
What's his endgame? Why does he not want to cut rates or or why would he not want
01:05:52
to put it? Well, of course. I mean, he lives in a world in which there is no one who doesn't want to stick it to
01:05:58
Trump. I mean, I know the zip code that he lives in very very well. Um, I know the club that he goes to. I know the
01:06:04
world. No, no, I would. Of course not. And I'm not mad at him. I'm just saying I I I know the world well. And um of
01:06:11
course no uh no one in that world wants to be seen uh helping Trump and Trump has attacked him by the way in public.
01:06:17
So I don't think that helps either. I think the structure of the Fed governance is very weird. I think um I
01:06:25
I'm not exactly sure what the Fed is. I've asked this question to a lot of economists including Larry Summers.
01:06:30
Never really gotten a straight answer. Like how is it that um this is beyond political control? I mean, I don't know
01:06:37
if we're for democracy, shouldn't voters have some say in how this is administered? But they don't. I mean,
01:06:43
there's no direct mechanism for voters to be heard um in this the single most important institution in the American
01:06:49
economy. How does that which is a crypto government organization? It's, you know,
01:06:52
administering US dollars. I don't I just don't understand it. I think it's very the idea that you're going to
01:06:57
depoliticize it by making its leadership immune from the control of elected officials strikes me as the kind of like
01:07:04
midcentury dumbness that got us NATO and a lot of other bad institutions. I just
01:07:09
don't get it. The exact opposation of the Fed be here I've asked this two times. Can't seem to get an answer. What
01:07:20
what's the motivation of the Fed? Just is it to stick it to Trump? Jason Jason let me well let me give you another data
01:07:25
point. Okay now let's assume let's just scenario play. Yes please. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut
01:07:32
right now? I'll tell you. So one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.
01:07:39
But there's something else that happens which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve. Meaning, how do people
01:07:48
borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years? If you make that cheaper, we know is it's a
01:07:56
test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money. That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP.
01:08:04
So, what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the 300, but you can get this reflexive
01:08:10
positivity in the economy. What that allows you to do is even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're
01:08:18
actually growing yourself out of this whole thing. So then you ask yourself, well, hold on a second. If the numerical
01:08:25
justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States
01:08:33
economy, why don't I do it? The only answer is political. I I wonder if Hold on. Let me just let
01:08:40
me let me teach you. Um, okay. So, we're at 2.6% on uh inflation. He wants to get
01:08:47
it down to two. Feels like we're in striking distance. Maybe you could maybe give us a theory here, Sachs, of what
01:08:52
would the political motivation be? I find it hard to believe that he's trying to sink Trump for some reason as opposed
01:08:58
to maybe just being scared of inflation popping up above that 3x handle, which then triggers them to, you know, raise
01:09:06
rates. So, what's what's your theory here? If you're pal, it's better to take the risk of being Paul Vulkar than
01:09:12
Arthur Burns. I mean, that's that's basically what it comes down to. For people who don't Well, because what
01:09:18
happened is Arthur Burns let inflation slip the leash in the 1970s and he's remembered as a horrible Fed chair. And
01:09:24
then Paul Vulker came in and jacked up rates to like I think close to 20%. And caused a vicious recession in 1982. But
01:09:33
by 1983, the economy had bounced back and inflation basically was under control. And then the rate cutting cycle
01:09:41
started. And that rate cutting cycle went for like 25 years. And then Reagan got reelected in 1984. So you you know,
01:09:48
you rather be a vulker than than a Burns if you're a Fed chair. Now you raised the question, is pal political? Yeah, of
01:09:55
course he is. If you go back to uh was it 2021? So, the first summer of Biden's presidency, we got that shock 5.1%
01:10:06
inflation print of in May of 2021, if my memory is correct. What did the Biden administration do? They sent Janet
01:10:13
Yellan out to say it was transitory and Pal got on board with the whole transitory narrative. Exactly. And as a
01:10:19
result of that, he did not raise rates for six months. And worse than that, they continued QE. I think they bought
01:10:26
like 180 billion of bonds in that time period and that's what allowed inflation to get so out of control. Now, why is it
01:10:33
that Pal did that because he wanted to get reconfirmed and yes, he was nominated by Trump originally, but Biden
01:10:42
renominated him and he basically wanted the reappointment by Biden. and he wanted to get confirmed and then the
01:10:48
month after he got confirmed all of a sudden he shifted gears and started raising rates again once he was safely
01:10:54
in Wisconsin's office. So he did the right thing in terms of raising rates in the face of inflation once he was free
01:11:02
from those political incentives but for 6 months he was intensely political and that cost the United States dearly I
01:11:09
think dearly dearly. So now if you're a pal, you've got PTSD from that whole experience and you're going to heir on
01:11:17
the side of not letting inflation come back. I think what with inflation down to 2.4%.
01:11:24
I think it is time to cut rates, but he's fearful because again his incentives are to be a Vulker, not a
01:11:31
Burns. Yeah. And uh you want to read a good book? Paul Vulker is keeping at it. great uh book about has uh Reagan going
01:11:39
to him and trying to get him to cut rates. So, this is a reoccurring story just on but you know if if he had done
01:11:44
the right thing in the summer of 2021 we would never would have had that bubble at the end of 2021. Yeah. Remember and
01:11:50
that that basically created a huge crash in 2022 and we could have avoided a good
01:11:57
part of that if he had done the right thing. You know like the Fed chair it's not a hard job most of the time. I mean,
01:12:04
these guys sit in their ivory tower and then once a quarter they come out and do
01:12:08
this, you know, and basically testify and say a bunch of, you know, things that no one can understand, but like
01:12:14
once in a while you got to get the decision right. And he totally screwed it up in that one time where he had to
01:12:19
get it right. Yep. And I would say this could be one of those moments too where I think he's being a little bit fearful.
01:12:25
I think that there's a simpler explanation quite honestly. Like if you look at Powell's history, he was he was
01:12:30
nominated as a governor by Obama. Then Trump picked him out of the Fed to be chair, but then he was reappointed by
01:12:36
Biden. If you look at the vice chair of the Fed, Phil Jefferson, he was appointed by Biden. If you look at
01:12:41
Michelle Bowman, who's the vice chair for supervision, she was appointed by Trump. Michael Bar appointed by Biden.
01:12:47
Lisa Cook appointed by Biden. Adriana Kuger appointed by Biden. Chris Waller appointed by Trump. So I
01:12:54
think the point is that there is a balance of power here. If you look at political affiliations that tend to
01:12:59
favor a democratic view of the political landscape and let's be honest, what benefits the
01:13:09
Democrats more, a thriving economy and a shrinking deficit going into the midterms or the exact opposite? The
01:13:17
reason I'm bringing this up and I'm just harping on it is he's a Republican who Democrats have opposed. So I'm I'm just
01:13:22
trying to reconcile this grand conspiracy that he wants to sing Trump. I don't think it's Republican. I think
01:13:28
it's just a general decision. I think these guys move the dot plots and you can see it in the movement. Okay.
01:13:34
They're going away from reading the actual data and moving in concert with the data to giving themselves a window
01:13:43
to let the data play itself out beyond a reasonable point. And my point is the beyond the reasonable point is the key
01:13:49
part because when you talk to the large sophisticated pools of money. Yeah. Many
01:13:54
of them are like what is going on here? All right. Currently the big beautiful bill is uh in the Senate pass the house
01:14:01
by a one vote margin. Trump said he wants the Senate to pass the bill by Independence Day July 4th. Uh Senate
01:14:08
math. Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority. As you know, they can afford three nos on their side since Dems are
01:14:14
united against the bill. With 50 votes, JD Vance can break the tie, obviously. So, it's easier if they can get to 51.
01:14:21
Seven GOP senators are either no or maybe no. Three likely nos, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Rick Scott. Four maybe nos
01:14:30
over the Medicaid cuts. Uh Josh Holly, Susan Collins, Marowski, Jim Justice. Uh none of those senators have committed
01:14:38
either way. and Republicans are now falling into three camps on BBB. Hard yes, soft yes, no until it's fixed.
01:14:46
Obviously, uh some friends of ours were a little upset about the BBB and uh we had a
01:14:53
pretty chaotic week the last week. It looks like the reconciliation is in. Your take on the last week and the
01:14:59
reactions to the BBB and obviously Elon and Trump's relationship. Tucker Coffin,
01:15:06
I hate the whole thing. This is not how to legislate. I You shouldn't have a bill this big. It's impossible to get
01:15:13
your mind around it. No one can read it. No one understands it. It favors professional staff over legislators.
01:15:21
It totally leaves the public out. It'll be a decade before anyone understands what it means. Um the lobbies love it.
01:15:29
It's just it's Washington at its ugliest. Um not this specific bill, though. It is an example of it, but just
01:15:36
this is just not the way to do it. And it's not the way it has been done throughout American history. I mean,
01:15:40
there's just no reason to aggregate it all together like this. It becomes totally unmanageable and totally
01:15:46
undemocratic. So, you know, I mean, yeah. Well, it's insane. It's totally insane. Do can I
01:15:53
mean, can can you tell me what's in it? No. I mean, you know, like all of us know like 11 things we've read on
01:15:59
Twitter or whatever, but like the truth is even the professional staff that wrote it couldn't if you had dinner with
01:16:05
them over 3 hours really give you a comprehensive sense of what's in it. And remember, when it passes, and I think it
01:16:11
likely will, um, you know, it's it's the law. So, and that's by design in order of course by design. Of course, it's by
01:16:20
design. It's just Well, I mean, look, it's, you know, it's just it's just overload. You can't I mean every single
01:16:26
part of this this is the economy of the city that I've lived in my whole life. Every single part of this is there by
01:16:33
design. It's been managed. It's been thought through. It's been written artfully. And by artfully I mean
01:16:38
deceptively. So you can't understand its purpose or its benefit. And literally it is years
01:16:45
before the ramifications become clear. And again this is why we have committees. you know, a committee
01:16:51
masters a subject and then theoretically produces legislation that bears on that
01:16:56
subject with, you know, knowledge and depth and hopefully wisdom. Um, the Congress is not designed to pass
01:17:04
legislation in this way and we've evolved to this and I guess I would um encourage the White House to try and
01:17:12
blow that up. I think it'd be better for everybody if uh you know legislation was
01:17:17
passed peacemeal as it always has been. Um I think part of the problem is the leadership in the Congress and nobody
01:17:26
wants to say it is just embarrassing. It's just totally embarrassing. And I would say the conference isn't united
01:17:31
either. I mean this is part of the problem with Trump's agenda. Um, it's the beauty of Trump's agenda in my
01:17:37
opinion, but it's, you know, it's so different from what your average 65-year-old Republican was raised
01:17:43
believing. It's so different from what Fox News is telling you. It's the mirror image of what the Wall Street Journal
01:17:48
editorial page is telling you that there just not that many members of the House
01:17:53
or the Senate who are truly on board with Trump's message even now. And of course, they cowtow to the man, but when
01:18:01
it really comes down to it, they hate his stated agenda. and state agenda. Unpack what do they
01:18:09
hate most? What do they hate most? It's not even a close call. They hate his foreign policy views. They hate his
01:18:13
foreign policy views because look, out of 535 members of the House and Senate, I would say 510 have given up on
01:18:22
improving the United States through their jobs. Like they they know they can't. It's like intractable. This is
01:18:27
their view. It's complex. It's boring. It's difficult. And it's super hard to solve. and the numbers in the House and
01:18:33
Senate make it practically impossible to move the ball on whatever issue they care about or were elected on. And so
01:18:38
they take all of that energy and they apply it to making the rest of the world better. Fighting for democracy or you
01:18:45
know the the the the grander the description, the the less accountability there is. You know, if we're just like
01:18:51
fighting for Churchill against Hitler, like it's always a win because we don't know any of the details. It's a simpler
01:18:57
Yeah, it's a simpler cause for them to take on than looking at how do we balance what would you like to see Trump
01:19:04
do, Tucker? What would Tucker Carlson advise if you were in the White House, which many people have requested that
01:19:10
you do that? If you were at the right hand of the father, what would you tell him to do?
01:19:15
Understand the politician brain, which is reptilian by its nature. It responds only to pain. Period. Only to pain. So,
01:19:23
if you want a politician to do your bidding, it's a super simple conversation. Do what I ask or I will
01:19:30
make sure you lose your job. And by the way, Trump has the power to do that, which is what Elon said on Twitter. Just
01:19:35
put it out there. No, but it's true. And I do think if there's, you know, a number of criticisms of any living
01:19:41
person, but one I would level at Trump is he is he's nice. Like he likes to get along with people. He actually doesn't
01:19:46
like to fight in person. That is true. He likes to get along with people. No one will believe that, but I've seen it
01:19:51
a lot. And I think it's tough for him to say, it's easy for him to, you know, go after
01:19:59
a reptile like Mitch McConnell like at a press conference. You'll make fun of cocaine Mitch or whatever. But to really
01:20:05
go to McConnell and say, "Yeah, listen, son. You know, this is going to hurt in in the following six ways unless you
01:20:13
obey, you little bitch." Which is really what he ought to be saying. No, I mean it. I absolutely mean it. And be saying
01:20:18
that to all of these guys. Tom Cotton, are you joking? How does Tom Cotton have a say in anything? You know, and oh,
01:20:26
I'm, you know, you're that chairman of the Intel Committee. I'm so impressed. Listen, Tom Cotton, you represent a
01:20:31
state that likes me a lot more than you. So, if I find you undermining me, yet again, and Tom Cotton spends an awful
01:20:36
lot of time undermining Trump. Like, Tom Cotton hates Trump, actually, of course.
01:20:40
Um, but if I find you doing that, I'm going to take your Senate seat away, and that's going to be really easy for me to
01:20:45
do. And I really wish he would do that. It would only take one cycle to clear out, you know, to really get some
01:20:50
discipline like the French in Algeria, you know, for the encouragement of the other. The first guy goes out of the
01:20:55
helicopter and then the second guy is super talkative. If you did that in the United States Senate, you would have a
01:21:01
much more coherent um party, I think, like in about a cycle. A little more leadership, a
01:21:07
little more stick than carrot. Uh, who wants to go next? Jam or Sax? A lot more stick. Okay, here we go. Tucker says
01:21:14
more stick. Sachs, what you're feeling? Are we still talking about the big beautiful bill? What are we talking
01:21:19
about? Yeah. I mean, well, I mean, we're talking about it all. Everybody wants to
01:21:23
hear, you know, about our takes on the kurfluffle between Elon and uh Trump, obviously, in relation to BBB. So, let's
01:21:30
just tackle it or you can pass on it. Yeah, let's we got to put it out here. We're 40 We're an hour into the episode.
01:21:35
Let's just talk about it. Let me speak to BBB for a second. So, so listen, if the question is whether I can defend a
01:21:42
system that produces $2 trillion deficits every year, no, I I can't I can't even defend the Senate rules that
01:21:49
require you to get 60 votes for some things and 50 votes for other things. I mean, it's all just seems kind of random
01:21:55
when you're an outsider. But those aren't the rules is they've got these crazy bird rules and once a year you get
01:22:03
to do this reconciliation bill where it only takes 50 votes instead of 60 votes to pass something which means you can
01:22:10
actually get something done without the Democrats which is a rare opportunity and you know you just have to basically
01:22:17
come up with um a nexus to a budgetary issue and so that's what the BBB has done and as a result of of that
01:22:26
conduit it. I guess you could say that it's a way for the president to ratify many of his most important campaign
01:22:33
promises from the 2024 election. And so you've got the tax cut extension in here. You've got full funding of of
01:22:41
border security for four years. You've got no tax on tips. You've got drill baby drill. You've got the missile
01:22:46
defense shield. So these are campaign promises that are important to the president. It's kind of a once in
01:22:52
a-lifetime opportunity to pass these things. I think that Republicans would be committing political suicide if they
01:22:58
don't. I mean, the polling on this, I'll give you some numbers. So, first of all,
01:23:01
the bill itself is popular despite all the bashing of it. I think that popular with who? Well, this is a national poll
01:23:09
by Signal, which actually has a bias in favor of Democrats by plus 2.1. So, this with the
01:23:16
public, it's who haven't read it. I know, believe it or not. So, um, what does that even mean? that support for a
01:23:22
big beautiful bill plus six increased funding for border security plus 35 that'll probably be even more now that
01:23:28
what's going on in LA work requirements for Medicaid and SNAP plus 38 so despite
01:23:34
the Democrats carping on that point people really like the idea of of work requirements and then permanently
01:23:39
extending the 2017 tax cuts support plus 19 so these are very popular planks of the president's agenda it's the only
01:23:48
chance they're going to have to to pass this Look, you know, I I said this three
01:23:52
weeks ago on the pod the last few episodes that I don't support the bill because it's perfect. I support it just
01:23:56
pragmatically because it's better than the status quo. And my view is that we should take this now. We should get this
01:24:03
done and then come back for more later. And there should be a big fight over the
01:24:08
budget at some point in the future, but this is not the right time to do it. We don't have the votes. We're not
01:24:12
organized. And it would compromise these other promises the president's made. And
01:24:16
the time to really have that battle is at the beginning of the new fiscal year, which is October 1st. So we at some
01:24:22
point do need to have a big fight over the budget. There does need to be resistance to the deficit. We can't
01:24:27
continue in this current state forever, but I don't think that's the hill to die
01:24:31
on right now. Chimath, your thoughts on BBB and the Kuruffle, if you want it. Here's what I'll say. I was sad at the
01:24:38
end of last week. one is my friend and the other is my president and it seemed like a really profound friendship and so
01:24:44
I was bummed. Here's what I'll say this week though on a much more positive note. I saw Elon on
01:24:51
Tuesday and I got to spend a couple hours with him at Tesla. He let me audit a couple of meetings with him actually.
01:24:59
It's always fun. Yeah. Yeah. One was Dojo and then right after that was the Optimus team. H one thing I'll say is
01:25:07
I've said this before but he attracts these incredible men and women to work for him. They are inspiring. Just
01:25:14
sitting in a meeting and hearing it what they're doing was amazing. And then second to see Elon in action at scale in
01:25:25
that way is like watching a maestro paint a masterpiece. It's it's really impressive. And then separately, I saw
01:25:32
President Trump doing a couple of pressers and he was in his zone of excellence. So, it seems like they're
01:25:39
going to find some common ground here. They are better together. And I'll just say Elon, amazing. Tesla, incredible.
01:25:49
And I would not be sleeping on this company is what I would say. Jason, what do you think? So,
01:25:56
we're not the main characters in this story, obviously. And when I saw what happened last week, obviously this is
01:26:01
one of my best friends for many decades. And given the popularity of this podcast, my decision was I don't want to
01:26:10
insert myself into this, have my quotes or my feelings uh about Trump, about the
01:26:17
bill get weaponized. And that's typically what happens when you have a friend who's the number one story in the
01:26:23
world. Uh and now not friends with Trump, but he is my president as well by default.
01:26:28
What benefit does it have to me to then speak about it and then have everybody weaponize it? So, I know this is hard
01:26:34
for the audience to reconcile, but sometimes it's better for me to just step back. That's why you don't see me
01:26:40
commenting on Tesla or SpaceX publicly all the time because people weaponize what I say against my friend, and I just
01:26:46
don't like that. And, you know, it it's happened in books. It's happens in news stories. So, when Elon is doing
01:26:51
something and it's this intense, I like to just step back and maybe take a beat.
01:26:55
That was my decision. That's why I didn't want to do a pod last week. Everybody else can speak for themselves.
01:27:01
That's where I'm at. How do I feel about it? I think Trump uh is making a mistake
01:27:06
with BBB. I think he should push back on it harder. I said that in a previous episode. And I think Elon's 100% correct
01:27:12
about that. I also think if either of these parties can't control spending, there needs to be like the Nor what was
01:27:19
it? The Norquist um you guys would know more about this, but Norquist pledge, Tucker, where you you know, you agree to
01:27:25
not increase taxes. I think we need something like that where a reasonable party says we should balance the budget.
01:27:33
We have to control the deficit. There should be some pledge like that that we force our elected officials on both
01:27:37
sides of the aisle to take. And I'm going to start pursuing that myself personally. You can go to join
01:27:43
thereresponsibleparty.com and I'm just going to start an email newsletter and just talk about it. I
01:27:47
think there needs to be a pledge that these politicians take to balance the budget and cut the deficit over some
01:27:53
reasonable amount of time. Uh but I wish them both the best and I'm glad that the
01:27:57
two of them have reconciled because that's good for the country. We can't have these two giants at war. The
01:28:02
greatest innovator in our country and a president who's got, you know, an agenda
01:28:06
which I agree with twothirds of. I may not agree with how he's doing immigration on the margins, but I agree
01:28:11
with everything else. So, I'm just rooting for the both of them because it's so important that for America that
01:28:16
they get along. Great. So, in summary, you're not centering yourself, but you have a website www. I have an opinion.
01:28:25
It accepts Apple. I'm not telling you to go to founderun university. It's $1 a month, but if you subscribe for a year,
01:28:32
it's $6. Yeah, you actually threw in a plug. I have an issue. I'm throwing a plug in. That was insane. I I don't
01:28:37
care. Listen, sign up the responsible party.com. I'm going to start my over my own your quiz pledge, but also join.
01:28:46
It's insane. You're insane. I'd also like to plug Chamat's Substack. It's $1,000 a year to get his reports and uh
01:28:53
you can of course buy David Saxquil.com/ucker. What plugs do you have? I've never
01:28:58
plugged. No plugs from Tucker. Tucker, you where what's in the merch store, Tucker? You got to have something in the
01:29:04
merch store. Alp, America's greatest nicotine pouch. That's all I've got. Okay, here we go. Plugs central. Uh,
01:29:10
fantastic. All right, breaking news here. Foreign policy looks like a major escalation with Iran could be happening.
01:29:15
Maybe on Wednesday, it was reported some US personnel were being evacuated out of
01:29:19
the Middle East. Partial evacuation of the Iraqi embassy. Okay. Oil prices move 4% on the news. Later reported that
01:29:28
Israel is prepared to launch an operation into Iran. US thinks Iran could retaliate on spaces in Iraq which
01:29:35
explains the evacuations. Trump was asked about the evacuation said the following quote they are being moved out
01:29:42
because it could be a dangerous place. We'll see what happens. The classic Trump will see what happens. And then he
01:29:48
added they can't have a nuclear weapon. Very simple. Okay. Poly market odds are spiking on Israel. Action against Iran
01:29:58
50%. Oh boy. Uh Tucker, can the West allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon or is this more a WMD
01:30:10
situation that we referenced at the start of the program? If Tucker Carlson was in the White House, which many of
01:30:15
your fans wish you were, what would your advice be here? Is it up to us? Do we have the power?
01:30:23
Nobody wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon. I don't think the Iranians want a nuclear weapon right now by judging by
01:30:28
their actions, but it could we prevent it is the question. And if so, how exactly given that we just lost to
01:30:36
Russia and the Houthis? Um I'm skeptical. Um but I'm amazed by how close we are to military action against
01:30:45
Iran. It's no defense of Iran. Of course, I'm not a Shiite for the record, but I think it comes with perils that
01:30:51
people are not considering or willfully ignoring. And the main one is Iran is not Iraq or it's not Libya. It's not
01:30:57
isolated. It's a it's a central player in bricks. 90% of of Iran's oil exports go to China. It just signed an defense
01:31:05
agreement with Russia in January. So it's not you know what I mean? It has backup. It has big allies that represent
01:31:11
the majority of the world's population and the majority of the world's economy and land mass. So the potential for this
01:31:17
to become something much much bigger and unmanageable is is real. It's there. their conventional weapons are fearsome
01:31:24
and could do great damage to our allies to Israel and and to American assets in that area and also to energy production
01:31:32
um in countries that we we rely on. So I think the downsides are uh are really kind of overwhelming. I think um a
01:31:40
protracted meaning anything over a day or two uh engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the
01:31:48
presidency and I think it could really sink this administration and so I pray this this doesn't happen. I think by the
01:31:54
way I think the timetable is distorted. There is absolutely no reason to the president has said repeatedly we will do
01:32:00
everything we can to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. I think it's a completely reasonable goal. Nobody wants
01:32:05
that. I certainly don't want that and the Israelis don't want it and the Gulf States don't want it. Nobody wants that.
01:32:10
But it doesn't mean that it has to happen on Friday actually and there are other forces exerting pressure on the
01:32:18
administration to get this done quickly even before Steve Wickoff, God bless him, um meets with his counterparts in
01:32:26
Oman in a few days from now. So it's like why in the world would you preempt a scheduled negotiation with air strikes
01:32:35
which the United States would US is driving is driving this and we're just you know it's it's a it's a combination
01:32:42
of both and by the way Israel is a country with 9 million people in it. I mean it's it's the Israeli government.
01:32:49
Um but there also elements of the US government. The head of SenCom you know is in favor of this. There are a number
01:32:54
of Republican senators who are in favor of this who are lying. For example, here's one, I think, interesting point,
01:33:00
um, that's a statement of fact. There's no American intelligence, this is a statement of fact, that suggests Iran is
01:33:07
in the process of assembling a nuclear weapon or within months of doing so. There's none. And yet Tom Cotton of
01:33:14
Arkansas, the chairman of the intel Senate Intel Committee, is out there saying, you know, we know that they're
01:33:19
doing this. Well, actually, you don't know that. That's not true. Whether he believes it or not, I can't, you know, I
01:33:23
can't say, but that's that's a lie. Our intel does not say that. period. So why so they're lying because industrial uh
01:33:31
military-industrial complex? Yeah. I mean I think there a whole it's not it's not as simple as OB wants it. I mean I
01:33:38
think this is a very complicated um coalition of aligned interests but whatever their motives I don't even need
01:33:46
to know their motives. This is not a timetable that we need to adhere to. It's a completely artificial timetable.
01:33:53
The president has done his best to resolve this diplomatically. That's clearly his stated preference. He said
01:33:58
it a million times. And he's being bumrushed into making a very uh snap decision that could have bigger
01:34:09
consequences than we're thinking through. So, I'm very concerned about it. What's your thoughts here? Can Iran have
01:34:17
a nuclear weapon? And should the United States participate in if they do have um
01:34:25
one imminently which is a big debate obviously should we be involved in uh stopping
01:34:32
them or should we be doing negotiations soft power etc. I think this is where I'm glad that it's President Trump in
01:34:40
the seat. I think he's shown a consistent desire to offramp all of these conflicts and if he and Witoff
01:34:49
can hopefully hold the line with BB and everybody else, I think we're way way way better off. But you see this like
01:34:56
every time we're on the verge of victory, somebody in the military-industrial complex invents
01:35:01
some, you know, escalation of something so that we can just go to war. It's the the answer always seems to be let's go
01:35:08
to war or let's support a war or let's enable a war. And the bull work to that has been the president. If we go to war,
01:35:16
Tucker's right, this totally screws everything up. I mean, you could see oil double double. What What happens to the
01:35:25
economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything, of inflation if you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a
01:35:32
barrel? It's not good. So, you have to wonder like why would people want this escalation? Who wants
01:35:39
this escalation? And you see that it's deeply beneficial for America to avoid anything calamitous happening here. So I
01:35:48
hope we find an off-ramp and I hope that the president gets his way. One thing people should know about Iran is that
01:35:56
there is a massive demographic switch happening here. You can see a chart. Is this from your paid newsletter site? Uh
01:36:04
this is Yeah, this is from chimoth.subsect.com. $1,000 a year, $700 a month. You get to
01:36:09
have lunch with him twice a year. Is this is this from choose your responsible party.org? What's it called?
01:36:14
No, this is from founderun university application coming in for around the world. Uh here we go. Take a take your
01:36:21
uh nicotine patch and come to founder university. Iran 2020 uh if you look at the number of millennials, Gen Xers, uh
01:36:31
this is not a boomer country and they're going to have a revolution when all those 30 year olds you see there, that
01:36:37
big fat middle, 30 and 40 year olds who are on VPNs right now and reading and watching what's happening in the West.
01:36:46
You do not need to interfere with this country. You just need to let those 30 year olds become 40 and 50 year olds and
01:36:51
take over the country. We need to negotiate heavily. The idea of going in there and creating a war with Iran is
01:36:58
exactly probably what those older people want. Demographics are destiny. Uh and this there's an amazing actual Anthony
01:37:04
Bourdain episode from Iran and it was he said it was his favorite episode. Rest in peace Anthony Bourdain. But the
01:37:09
demographics here are just going to drive this change. Your ability as a moderator to cover so much ground. Thank
01:37:14
you. Wow. Compliment. All right. This is a hard turn to make, Tucker, but this week's All-In podcast is brought to you
01:37:21
by the Trump card. Everybody go get a Trump card and use the promo code J promo code JCAL. And I uh just full
01:37:29
disclosure, get paid $500,000 every time you buy a Trump card. But the Trump card
01:37:34
website is up. Use the promo code JCAL 10% off. Tucker 12% off. And Saxy Pooh for 15% off. 15,000 15,000 people have
01:37:45
signed up. That's $75 billion there if you convert them all. Let's go. I mean, I I I'm an idiot because I proposed this
01:37:52
years ago for $500,000 and you know what the genius of Trump is? He made it gold
01:37:57
and added a zero. You have You have consistently proven to your friends that you mispriced by an order of magnitude
01:38:03
typically two. Now I add a zero every time. All right. Listen, thank you Tucker for coming on. What's the website
01:38:09
to get our nicotine? Uh Alps. Alps. Alps. What? I want the website. Als.com. Alpouch.com. All right, Tucker, you got
01:38:16
to get us in on this. We need alpouch.comallin. We need an all-in branded one. Okay.
01:38:22
With the flavor of What's the flavor, Chimamoth, we should do here. What's the flavor? Can we do a burgundy money?
01:38:28
That's why I'm in. But how do we get How do we How do we get promoing this? We need to get some We need to get in on
01:38:34
this. I would say like it should taste like a 2001 Meetto. Can you do that? Can you get the team on a Metto flavor for
01:38:40
us? It's I'm going to send Tucker a bottle. I am uh sending this in right now. We're to start with barata flavored
01:38:47
to then go from there. I would if you can make a coollette steak for me. A rare koollette steak would be great as a
01:38:53
flavor. A wagu would be great. Sax, what do you got for a flavor here? Just something minty.
01:38:58
Maybe a little minty. Okay. Minty fresh cuz you want to get the breath going. This is dual purpose. Why chew gum when
01:39:04
you can just go right to a pouch? There. There it goes. Clip that. I just texted
01:39:09
I texted the factory and I said we need specially branded ALP for Allin. Let's go. You think I'm kidding? We're
01:39:16
in BD mode. We're in BD mode. We're not kidding either. We're in BD mode here at
01:39:19
Allin. Allin.com. Come to the summit. Tucker, why don't you come to the summit in September? What are you doing? You
01:39:24
want to come? Done. It'd be fun to As long as it's not it's not the end is um grouse season, so I can't I'm not
01:39:30
allowed to leave during grrow season because I've got dogs. But um is it before the end of September? September
01:39:36
8th and 789 I think it is. So yeah. Oh brow flavor pouch. Those that's a little g it's a little gamey for a nicotine
01:39:46
pouch but I'll think about it. We'll think take it under advising. Too gy. All right everybody. We missed you.
01:39:51
Sultan of science. We'll break your chops but we wish you were here. David Saxs the miss you buddy. See you in LA
01:39:57
hopefully at the all-in tequila lunch later this month. Chamath Poly Hapatia great to see you. Good luck with your
01:40:05
health and for my guy Tucker Carlson. Alpouch.com/allin. Get your promo codes going. This is the
01:40:13
number one podcast in the world after the Tucker Carlson show. My last shout out. I would like to thank Robin Hood
01:40:18
for sending me their gold card. You finally Yeah. Sax and I have had it for 100 days. I shhat on American Express
01:40:25
because I think they're just trash and then they they reached out to me and it was so ridiculous for the black card.
01:40:32
No, they they didn't even offer me the black card. They said, "Here's a chance for you to apply for the black card."
01:40:38
And I was like, "This is this just proves so insulting. So insulting." They have no idea who anybody is. They're
01:40:44
nagging you. They're I mean, literally, this is the number one podcast in the world, bro. I mean, I generally if any
01:40:52
of the four of us ran a credit card company and we decided that we were going to have a $10,000 a year credit
01:40:58
card for big spenders, what you would do is actually run a query to find who are
01:41:03
the biggest that you already have and upgrade them so that they're paying you 10,000. Who who wants to do the all-in
01:41:10
card with us? Email jasonallin.com. BD lines are open. We're going to monetize this brand. All right,
01:41:16
everybody. Thanks again, Tucker. You're awesome. We appreciate you and best the greatest. See you next time. Byebye.
01:41:23
Love you besties. Love you. Love you s. I got you. We'll let your winners ride. Rainman David
01:41:36
and it said we open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you. Queen of Kino
01:41:44
[Music] besties are gone. That is my dog taking notice your driveways. Oh man, my appetiter will be. You should
01:42:00
all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all just useless. It's like this like sexual
01:42:05
tension that we just need to release somehow. Wet your feet. Wet your feet. her feet.
01:42:13
We need to get Mercury's back. [Music] I'm going all in.