00:00:00
this week we're going to play our
00:00:02
favorite new game show guess who's got
00:00:04
covid yes that's right somebody on the
00:00:07
Pod
00:00:08
somebody's got coded
00:00:12
it's not the Me Oh No you're ruining the
00:00:15
game oh sorry so here's the game
00:00:19
person who got covered have they been
00:00:21
vaccinated or not okay all four of us
00:00:23
have been vaccinated we covered that on
00:00:24
our previous spot so everybody's
00:00:25
vaccinated double vacs
00:00:28
did we all get Pfizer I was Pfizer
00:00:30
Pfizer Pfizer Pfizer okay so Pfizer
00:00:34
across the board we got quads
00:00:36
and
00:00:38
this is a breakthrough infection has
00:00:41
anybody
00:00:42
taking a z-pack after a night of party
00:00:47
[Laughter]
00:00:50
lasted 39 episodes that was good that
00:00:53
was good okay so number one clue number
00:00:56
one this best
00:00:59
a breakthrough infection Outdoors
00:01:03
at a restaurant number one got it
00:01:05
Outdoors number two got it from somebody
00:01:07
who was also vaccinated number three
00:01:09
this bestie does not fly commercial and
00:01:13
he's not a fan of being interrupted and
00:01:17
he is not an Evangelical David the
00:01:21
Breakthrough vaccination
00:01:22
David sacks
00:01:25
I'm glad that uh am I getting a
00:01:27
breakthrough case of covet is uh is
00:01:30
comedy fodder for you somehow
00:01:33
we'll let your winner slide
00:01:37
[Music]
00:01:45
[Music]
00:01:48
foreign
00:01:52
what happened and then how you felt yeah
00:01:54
okay so what happened and we're glad
00:01:56
you're safe obviously obviously we
00:01:58
wouldn't be joking you're still losing
00:02:00
weight you lost five pounds so yeah yeah
00:02:02
so you may want to read some of the
00:02:04
beautiful text messages we sent you when
00:02:06
we found out this week yes
00:02:10
Jason what would you say Jason you said
00:02:13
it uh I was just like wow big about who
00:02:15
we could recruit for the fourth spot
00:02:17
Keith or a boy we get Peter teal in here
00:02:20
I said that I really really hope you
00:02:23
didn't die but if you did I would love
00:02:25
to have your plane as a support plane
00:02:27
for my plane I was thinking you know
00:02:29
what I might be pro-san Francisco if you
00:02:31
die I could I might want all right well
00:02:33
sorry guys I'm gonna live sorry Jason
00:02:34
I'm gonna live
00:02:36
here's basically what happened okay is
00:02:39
um so Tuesday of last week I had dinner
00:02:42
with a few friends and then my friend
00:02:45
just we're out outdoors in a restaurant
00:02:47
yeah I'll tell you exactly where we were
00:02:49
at matsahisa in La which happened in the
00:02:51
outdoor parking lot yeah yes the outdoor
00:02:53
parking lot area which is a covered
00:02:54
outdoor area so you know these like
00:02:57
covered areas are effectively inside
00:02:59
because it traps the air in there
00:03:02
but at any event we had dinner there
00:03:04
um the next day he woke up with a fever
00:03:06
and sore throat he went and got a covet
00:03:08
test he tested positive he is also
00:03:10
double vaxed with Pfizer okay so and and
00:03:14
I reported this to you guys last week on
00:03:16
last week's show so I went out right
00:03:18
away on Wednesday got a covet test was
00:03:22
negative I repeated the test on Friday
00:03:24
was negative and then Sunday rolls
00:03:27
around and I wake up and I got a fever
00:03:29
I don't really have a sore throat but
00:03:31
I've got kind of a I'd say an occasional
00:03:33
dry cough and I've got and I've got some
00:03:35
sinus congestion David mild fever or
00:03:38
like like 99.9 or like 102.1 it topped
00:03:43
off at about 99.9 it's apparently a
00:03:46
fever yeah really fever but I mean it
00:03:49
was definitely there and I took Tylenol
00:03:51
and it brought it down to the low 99s
00:03:54
and uh so any event first thing Monday
00:03:57
morning I went and got the covet test
00:03:58
and sure enough I had covid uh they
00:04:00
can't confirm that it's Delta variant
00:04:02
but they think it is because that's
00:04:03
what's like exploding in LA right now
00:04:05
and so yeah I mean look I mean the good
00:04:08
news is it's very mild I mean I'm it's
00:04:10
now Thursday and I feel like I'm like 99
00:04:15
recovered I don't have a fever anymore
00:04:17
are you 10 days in now this no no no no
00:04:20
this is the you know I came down with
00:04:22
symptoms on this past Sunday and it's
00:04:25
now Thursday so I am and when were you
00:04:28
exposed Tuesday night so I was but yes
00:04:30
you're right it's about 10 days
00:04:32
you're convinced that was the only way
00:04:34
you could have gotten it right yeah
00:04:36
because somebody else at the dinner got
00:04:37
has symptoms now too
00:04:39
ah so it's a super spreader at matsuhisa
00:04:42
yeah yeah basically but it shows you how
00:04:45
virulent this new Delta variant is I
00:04:48
mean you've got there are four people
00:04:51
out that night plus the person who who
00:04:55
had it and two out of the four basically
00:04:58
got it and we were all vaccinated
00:05:00
including the person who had it and of
00:05:03
course he didn't know he had it he
00:05:04
didn't have any symptoms till the next
00:05:06
day so
00:05:08
um and you know I got it I got it five
00:05:10
days after exposure it's that five days
00:05:13
is like clockwork you know did you um
00:05:15
did you have like a pulse ox did you
00:05:17
measure any of these other things did
00:05:18
any of that stuff change at all yeah I
00:05:20
mean I've have the pulse ox meter and
00:05:22
it's been around 95 so it is Dallas yeah
00:05:25
you should be like 98 right yeah it is
00:05:27
down slightly it is down slightly and if
00:05:30
you go to 92 or 93 they say go to the
00:05:32
emergency room I think and and did you
00:05:34
self-isolate from your family yeah I did
00:05:38
but we were lulled a little bit into a a
00:05:40
place of overconsciousness yeah well I
00:05:43
remember I got I got kova test on
00:05:45
Wednesday and then Friday and they're
00:05:46
both negative I thought we were through
00:05:47
it so I was at home and
00:05:50
um and then and then so my 11 year old
00:05:53
got it
00:05:54
even though I was isolating this thing
00:05:56
is I mean this thing is so contagious so
00:05:59
you know what I've read is that Delta
00:06:01
variant is 60 more transmissible than
00:06:03
the UK variant which was the alpha
00:06:04
variant the alpha variant was 60 more
00:06:07
transmissible than original covid so
00:06:09
you're looking at a transmissibility you
00:06:11
multiply those together of two and a
00:06:12
half times the original and the original
00:06:14
covid had an R naught of two to three so
00:06:18
you multiply two to three by two and a
00:06:19
half times and you're looking at five to
00:06:22
eight and you know explain to the
00:06:24
audience what that means in terms of
00:06:25
reality it means the r naught is uh how
00:06:29
many people does the average infected
00:06:31
person transmit before they know they
00:06:34
have it and can fully self-isolate and
00:06:37
so you're going from the original Cove
00:06:39
it was two to three Delta variant might
00:06:41
be like eight we're getting up into like
00:06:43
smallpox territory with this thing and
00:06:46
it's all the more transmissible because
00:06:49
um you know vaccinated people can get it
00:06:51
you know the the Israel data that we
00:06:53
talked about in the show last week was
00:06:55
64 Effectiveness that Israel reported
00:06:59
that the effectiveness of Pfizer had
00:07:00
gone from like 95 to 64 in terms of
00:07:04
preventing infections so you have maybe
00:07:06
a third of vaccinated people can get it
00:07:09
and then they can spread it without even
00:07:11
knowing they have it
00:07:13
so I think we're at the point now where
00:07:15
if you're not vaccinated you're gonna
00:07:17
get you're going to get the Delta
00:07:18
variant we're seeing now cases explode
00:07:21
you know all over the country even in LA
00:07:24
county they've now had a um the five-day
00:07:27
average of cases has jumped 500 in one
00:07:30
month so pretty and Jason you've tweeted
00:07:33
this if you are not vaccinated you are
00:07:35
choosing to get the Delta variant at
00:07:36
this point I mean this thing is
00:07:38
extremely transmissible that's what uh
00:07:40
there was a great tweet by Scott Adams
00:07:42
the guy who the cartoonist who I
00:07:44
wouldn't who listens to the Pod by the
00:07:46
way who does this into the pot uh he had
00:07:48
a he had a really great quote he's like
00:07:50
um
00:07:51
uh today is either Wednesday yeah for uh
00:07:57
those that are vaccinated or uh yet
00:08:00
another day where the unvaccinated
00:08:02
amongst you are likely to get uh coveted
00:08:05
something like that right was that the
00:08:06
two yeah basically today's Wednesday for
00:08:08
people who are vaccinated or it is the
00:08:11
day you're gonna get you know the the
00:08:13
virus yeah we gotta stop stop messing
00:08:15
around with this thing now here's some
00:08:17
here's some good news actually is um and
00:08:20
so on on the the Wednesday when we found
00:08:22
out that my friend had tested positive
00:08:24
but again I was still negative I had no
00:08:26
symptoms I had nothing
00:08:28
um I told my wife she had gotten one
00:08:30
shot she hadn't gotten the second shot
00:08:31
and we were on the fence about whether
00:08:32
my 13 year old should get the vaccine
00:08:34
they both raced out that day got
00:08:36
vaccinated we did not get the virus so
00:08:39
they had basically call it three or four
00:08:41
days of the of the vaccine to trigger an
00:08:45
immune response in their system and it
00:08:46
protected them they did not get sick sir
00:08:48
and and David did you take anything else
00:08:50
like prednisone you took nothing no
00:08:52
steroids nothing nothing the only stuff
00:08:54
I so my friend did take uh he did get
00:08:57
prescribed prednisone my doctor thought
00:08:58
that was unnecessary or a bad idea for
00:09:00
me all I took okay was Tylenol to
00:09:03
control the fever and I took Flonase to
00:09:06
reduce the sinus congestion look I mean
00:09:08
I don't want to overstate this it was a
00:09:10
very mild cold for me and that is why I
00:09:14
think everybody should run out and get
00:09:15
vaccinated what did you pair it with
00:09:16
like a Pappy Van Winkle or did you go
00:09:18
with a screaming eagle
00:09:23
has such a [ __ ] wine list you probably
00:09:25
drank this like random swirl that's why
00:09:27
you were drinking some like uh nigiri
00:09:30
sake in all likelihood Freeburg last
00:09:31
week I was uh asking you or maybe it was
00:09:34
two weeks ago I was considering getting
00:09:36
the moderna because I was like I think
00:09:38
getting two of these things will boost
00:09:40
you into the high 90s you said I was
00:09:42
crazy uh has your position changed on
00:09:44
that yes
00:09:46
okay explain
00:09:47
because this is the one time I'm ever
00:09:49
gonna be right about science
00:09:51
a week before you so I I think that I
00:09:54
think the data up to that point didn't
00:09:55
necessarily
00:09:56
um kind of validate that additional
00:09:58
level of action but now it does and I
00:10:01
think new data is coming out so I saw
00:10:04
uh an executive from a pharmaceutical
00:10:06
company a few days ago okay
00:10:09
who broke down some statistics that they
00:10:12
looked at in Israel and what they were
00:10:16
identifying was that of the newly
00:10:18
infected cases in Israel
00:10:21
of people that are vaccinated
00:10:23
uh nearly two-thirds of those people
00:10:25
were vaccinated in January
00:10:28
about 30 percent were vaccinated in
00:10:30
February and less than 10 percent were
00:10:32
vaccinated in March and I'm just
00:10:33
approximating and I'm and I'm I'm just
00:10:35
kind of transcribing you know uh from
00:10:38
kind of what I remember him saying and
00:10:40
so he said you know the more recent
00:10:42
vaccinations we're not seeing
00:10:44
breakthrough cases breakthrough
00:10:45
infections so the the more recently
00:10:47
you're vaccinated
00:10:49
um the the less likely you are to have
00:10:51
this and then I I met with a a pretty
00:10:54
well-known virologist a few days ago as
00:10:57
well
00:10:58
who highlighted for me that we are
00:11:00
seeing antibody titers decline over time
00:11:03
in people but there's other studies that
00:11:06
are showing which means that the
00:11:07
antibodies against covid in your blood
00:11:09
after you get the vaccine slowly go down
00:11:11
over time so we're seeing that we knew
00:11:12
that right we knew that to some extent
00:11:14
but there was another study that showed
00:11:16
that memory B cells B cells are the
00:11:19
immune cells that make antibodies and
00:11:21
they remember the antibodies to make and
00:11:23
they were worried are we losing those B
00:11:25
cells in the human body and another
00:11:27
study found actually they're in your
00:11:28
lymph nodes so they they went in they
00:11:30
pulled them out and they identified look
00:11:31
that these B cells are persistent we are
00:11:33
having a persistent immune memory to
00:11:35
covid when we get exposed to the vaccine
00:11:37
or the virus
00:11:38
and um and so you know those two data
00:11:42
points both of them kind of said I think
00:11:44
we're going to need to do a booster very
00:11:46
soon for everyone and we're going to
00:11:47
need to get a third shot if the tail
00:11:50
Freeburg seems like it's like six months
00:11:52
yeah it sounds like he was saying that
00:11:54
you're going to see an efficacy drop to
00:11:55
that kind of two-thirds level after
00:11:57
about six months of your after getting
00:11:59
your your vaccine
00:12:00
and you know he said look this Delta
00:12:02
variant is virulent but you know the
00:12:05
more pressing kind of point isn't that
00:12:07
it's this variant that's breaking
00:12:09
through it's that the efficiency of
00:12:12
these vaccines at this point looks like
00:12:14
it's such that we're gonna need to do
00:12:15
boosters now Pfizer went to the White
00:12:17
House this week with some of this data
00:12:20
and they presented it to the White House
00:12:21
and the White House said uh if you guys
00:12:24
follow the news I I I'm hearing this I'm
00:12:26
I'm repeating what I read in news
00:12:28
reports at this point
00:12:30
but what they said was uh you know we're
00:12:33
not ready to kind of commit to doing
00:12:34
booster shots
00:12:36
for a couple of reasons one is there are
00:12:38
a lot of people out there that haven't
00:12:39
had their first shots
00:12:41
um and uh we're seeing the people that
00:12:44
are having these breakthrough infections
00:12:46
almost universally not always but very
00:12:49
very large majority having very mild
00:12:51
symptoms and not getting hospitalized
00:12:53
and the death rate is still very very
00:12:55
low in other words the vaccine did its
00:12:58
job the vaccine didn't didn't prevent
00:13:00
you know an infection meaning that the
00:13:02
virus starts replicating in in a way
00:13:04
that's uncontrolled in your body but
00:13:06
that your immune system had enough of a
00:13:08
defense to keep it from causing severe
00:13:10
disease in your body 99 of the people
00:13:12
going to the hospital
00:13:13
are unvaccinated right exactly and so
00:13:16
we're seeing that that great success
00:13:18
still with the vaccine but they are
00:13:21
seeing and there are now studies that
00:13:23
you know I think referenced to your
00:13:24
earlier point that you know if you put a
00:13:26
different RNA strain
00:13:28
um RNA sequence into your body which
00:13:30
moderna and Pfizer have slightly
00:13:31
different you know sequences you end up
00:13:33
creating different antibodies and having
00:13:35
more diversity of antibodies uh can kind
00:13:39
of provide greater immunity so it's
00:13:41
almost certain we're going to get
00:13:42
boosters and that we're going to end up
00:13:44
seeing them hit the market next month
00:13:46
yeah is the is the booster
00:13:49
different than the original so for
00:13:50
example if I get a Pfizer booster
00:13:52
and am I only basically getting still an
00:13:55
expression of that RNA strand that I'm
00:13:58
supposed to basically like is it the
00:14:00
same formulation the same dosage so so
00:14:02
both of those options are still up in
00:14:05
the air and so we may still get the same
00:14:07
vaccines that we were getting before you
00:14:09
could go get a modernist shot you could
00:14:10
go get another Pfizer shot of the exact
00:14:12
same RNA sequence that you got before or
00:14:16
they may introduce some new ones and so
00:14:17
all the Pharma companies are proposing
00:14:19
both approaches and they're pursuing
00:14:22
both pads right now and we'll see where
00:14:24
we end up and what about swapping
00:14:25
between an RNA approach and a
00:14:27
traditional vaccine approach so getting
00:14:29
J and J plus moderna or Pfizer versus
00:14:32
like there's a lot of a b testing we
00:14:33
need to do to figure out what is the
00:14:35
most efficacious this is exactly like
00:14:38
the this is reminds me exactly of HIV
00:14:40
where it took 10 years for them to
00:14:42
figure out what cocktail actually worked
00:14:43
the best and now look HIV is I mean it's
00:14:46
it's it's kind of level yeah nothing
00:14:48
it's really not that not that bad the
00:14:50
way that we probably for those of us in
00:14:52
our 40s have it emblazoned in our mind
00:14:54
is how bad it is versus how bad it is it
00:14:56
was a death sentence it seemed like a
00:14:58
death sentence and today it's kind of
00:14:59
more it's more manageable than frankly
00:15:01
it's a chronic disease now that's
00:15:02
manifest yeah it's like having diabetes
00:15:04
or something yeah I have another crazy
00:15:06
statement here which is that if you take
00:15:08
the the case fatality rate of covid and
00:15:14
um now you think about the fact that
00:15:15
there's going to be call it 60 of
00:15:18
America that's vaccinated and then every
00:15:20
six months we'll be getting boosters and
00:15:22
then you have the petri dish on the
00:15:25
other side of the 40 where you'll just
00:15:27
be ripping through variant after variant
00:15:29
after variant eventually it stands to
00:15:32
reason that if 40 of Americans remain
00:15:35
unvaccinated two or three years from now
00:15:38
the odds that there will be a strain
00:15:41
that is the killer strain that does
00:15:45
meaningful damage to those people I
00:15:47
think is basically a hundred percent
00:15:49
and if you think about a case fatality
00:15:51
rate that's meaningfully high what
00:15:53
you're effectively going to do is start
00:15:55
to call these people from the earth and
00:15:57
that is a crazy idea but that's what
00:16:00
folks who choose to not get vaccinated
00:16:01
are setting themselves up I mean it's
00:16:03
the quintessential you know uh is that
00:16:06
just about probabilities like am I
00:16:08
getting something wrong here
00:16:08
probabilistically isn't that that's what
00:16:10
I'm concerned about and it's not just
00:16:12
Americans not getting vaccinated it's
00:16:14
the rest of the world I mean even if we
00:16:16
got to externally extraordinarily High
00:16:18
vaccination rates in the U.S there's
00:16:20
going to be large you know numbers of
00:16:22
people outside the US who never get
00:16:23
vaccinated will continue to be a petri
00:16:25
dish uh to give you to you know
00:16:28
comparison the common cold has 1800
00:16:30
variants that's why we can't get
00:16:32
vaccinated so you know we're on the
00:16:34
Delta variant right now I think they
00:16:36
actually have numbered variants up to
00:16:38
Lambda we're going to run out of the
00:16:39
letters of the alphabet really soon you
00:16:41
know how long will it be until there is
00:16:43
there are these killer variants that
00:16:45
that I mean look I mean that could punch
00:16:48
through that can punch through the the
00:16:49
vaccines it's pretty scary actually and
00:16:52
I would say that
00:16:54
um this is like quite a come down off
00:16:56
where we were just two weeks ago you
00:16:58
know where we thought the Pfizer vaccine
00:16:59
was still 95 effective now at 64
00:17:02
effective I mean look I I do want to
00:17:05
like underscore that the the vaccine
00:17:07
worked in the sense that what I got was
00:17:09
super mild I mean it was really just
00:17:11
like getting a cold I mean I didn't need
00:17:13
to take anything more serious than
00:17:15
Tylenol but uh but it does show that the
00:17:18
virus is mutating really fast it's
00:17:20
highly transmissible and uh I'm not sure
00:17:24
you still have it you still have it
00:17:26
right I still have it yeah yeah so when
00:17:28
will you get tested to figure out when
00:17:30
you don't have it anymore I'll probably
00:17:31
go in tomorrow you know because it feels
00:17:33
it feels to me like I'm about 98 better
00:17:36
freebrook is there is there any data
00:17:39
um about the pattern of people who are
00:17:41
vaccinated getting this thing like is
00:17:43
there remember how like you know there
00:17:45
was early data that showed you know
00:17:47
women had a different immune response
00:17:49
than men and like people who were what
00:17:51
was it O positive or you know a certain
00:17:53
blood type effectively had inborn
00:17:55
immunity I haven't heard her read
00:17:57
anything like that
00:17:59
um and so this is still an emerging
00:18:01
issue I think
00:18:02
um you know by the way I was vaccinated
00:18:05
a few months ago guys like I mean I'm
00:18:07
like saying you're three years right
00:18:09
when was your second shot
00:18:12
basically like a few months ago yeah
00:18:14
it's uh mine was in March yeah one thing
00:18:17
I think it's worth highlighting just to
00:18:18
reinforce the vaccine importance
00:18:21
um you know the virologist the
00:18:22
Infectious Disease guy I met with was
00:18:24
telling me that
00:18:25
um you know one way to think about this
00:18:27
is the more opportunity the virus has to
00:18:30
replicate the more opportunity it has to
00:18:33
evolve and so when you're vaccinated and
00:18:36
you have a mild case and your body
00:18:39
recovers in a few days
00:18:41
um just to give you guys a sense the
00:18:43
difference when someone that's not
00:18:44
vaccinated has coveted and they've
00:18:46
measured the viral load in the nodes
00:18:47
from day one when they start having
00:18:49
their infectious kind of presentation to
00:18:52
day four which is when they Peak the
00:18:54
viral load is 10 to the eighth higher
00:18:56
okay that's like a hundred million times
00:18:58
higher
00:18:59
and so that's a hundred million times
00:19:01
more viruses that are being produced on
00:19:03
day four than were being produced on day
00:19:04
one when you were already showing
00:19:06
symptoms so every time a virus is being
00:19:08
produced and is replicating within your
00:19:10
body uh it's getting a chance to mutate
00:19:12
the important point he emphasized was
00:19:15
what matters most is we get the most
00:19:16
number of people on planet Earth
00:19:18
vaccinated as fast as possible because
00:19:20
the faster you can get more people
00:19:22
vaccinated the fewer opportunities you
00:19:23
give the virus to replicate and find
00:19:25
itself a mutational path that can
00:19:27
ultimately break through all these
00:19:29
vaccines and and cause real severe loss
00:19:32
of life
00:19:33
um and so the you know the presentation
00:19:34
that sax kind of described is
00:19:37
encouraging in the sense that it likely
00:19:39
means that the virus did not create that
00:19:41
there wasn't that much of a viral load
00:19:42
or a huge viral load relative to what
00:19:44
there would have been if he wasn't
00:19:45
vaccinated
00:19:47
um and so even though he did have an
00:19:49
infection
00:19:50
um you know the virus didn't get as much
00:19:51
of a chance to spread to other people it
00:19:53
didn't get but it did but it did because
00:19:55
my friend who I got it from after one
00:19:58
having dinner one night he was double
00:20:00
vax with Pfizer and it might you know my
00:20:04
11 year old daughter got it yeah it's
00:20:06
for her again it's just like a cold yeah
00:20:08
but um so this thing is highly
00:20:11
transmissible and what is it it changes
00:20:14
it changes the equation I think on some
00:20:16
policy questions so yeah that's what I
00:20:18
was going to ask you what does it mean
00:20:19
for the fall what now what
00:20:21
so two weeks ago I thought that because
00:20:24
I was vaccinated I didn't need to care
00:20:26
whether other people were vaccinated
00:20:28
because the you know up until that point
00:20:30
the data was you were 95 plus you know
00:20:34
Effectiveness so why care if other
00:20:36
people get vaccinated now we can say for
00:20:38
sure that that unvaccinated people can
00:20:42
or vaccinated people even can get other
00:20:44
people can get you sick even if you are
00:20:46
vaccinated so I think it absolutely
00:20:48
changes the equation on so for example
00:20:51
colleges were acquiring students to get
00:20:54
vaccinated to return in the fall like
00:20:56
before I didn't think that necessarily
00:20:58
made a lot of sense because if you
00:20:59
wanted to protect yourself you just get
00:21:01
vaccinated but now it makes sense right
00:21:03
because the college needs to get to herd
00:21:05
immunity to protect everybody against
00:21:07
you know potentially right Delta variant
00:21:10
right so I do think it changes the
00:21:12
equation quite a bit and I think we need
00:21:15
to make a big push here to get everyone
00:21:17
back are you then in fact sex for vax
00:21:21
passport ports which as a you know uh
00:21:24
libertarian I think is I think part of
00:21:27
your political I think everybody on this
00:21:29
call has kind of got a little
00:21:30
libertarian like you got to make your
00:21:31
own choices here but does it change your
00:21:33
thinking about that I.E employers uh
00:21:37
colleges
00:21:38
uh city-state workers teachers are
00:21:41
either get vacs or don't come back to
00:21:43
the office and you're fired
00:21:45
well I'll tell you I I don't like the
00:21:47
idea of government uh having the power
00:21:51
to to stick a needle in your arm but I
00:21:53
do think that employers workplaces
00:21:55
schools I think it's very reasonable for
00:21:58
them to say if you want to come back to
00:22:00
the workplace you have to get vaccinated
00:22:02
because your unvaccinated status creates
00:22:05
a risk it creates an externality for
00:22:07
everybody to be able to fire you if
00:22:08
you're a teacher should they be able to
00:22:09
fire you if you are a bus driver if
00:22:12
you're a pilot yes okay
00:22:14
here's the craziness this is a a
00:22:17
self-inflicted wound we are down to only
00:22:19
700 000 vaccines being given a day we
00:22:22
peaked we had the ability to do five
00:22:25
million shots a day at the peak back in
00:22:28
April we hit over 5 million shots in one
00:22:30
day in the United States and that's a
00:22:32
country where you know whatever 270
00:22:34
million adults you know were able to get
00:22:36
it in other words two percent of the pop
00:22:38
adult population in a single day could
00:22:40
have gotten it now we're down to 700 we
00:22:42
have over a billion vaccines sitting on
00:22:43
shelves eighty percent of Democrats have
00:22:45
received one shot compared to 49 percent
00:22:48
of Republicans 27 percent of Republicans
00:22:51
say that they won't get vaccinated under
00:22:53
any circumstances compared to three
00:22:55
percent of Democrats answering that
00:22:57
question the same way and an additional
00:22:59
nine percent will only do so if required
00:23:01
again three percent of Democrats said
00:23:02
they would only do so required so that's
00:23:04
36 percent are opting out forever I get
00:23:07
it but it's because we allowed it to
00:23:09
become a position meaning it's not it's
00:23:12
not like anybody has a position on
00:23:14
breathing breathing is not a political
00:23:16
position right it's not like I choose to
00:23:18
not breathe or drinking water or trying
00:23:21
to you know like these like eating three
00:23:23
meals a day if you can uh we have
00:23:26
allowed the most basic of issues in this
00:23:29
case you know Collective Public Health
00:23:31
to be politicized in a way and that is
00:23:33
entirely the government's fault
00:23:35
it's the government's fault and it's the
00:23:37
media media and the media because the
00:23:39
media's exacerbated it so that they can
00:23:41
have power people on the conservative
00:23:43
side of the spectrum have learned to
00:23:45
distrust the media and big corporations
00:23:47
because and government because they've
00:23:49
been lied to so often most recently yeah
00:23:51
right most recently with like the lab
00:23:53
League Theory and so you know there's
00:23:56
this suspicion on the right like what
00:23:57
aren't they telling us you know
00:23:59
um now look I think we got to get over
00:24:01
this I think you know we need to get
00:24:02
everyone vaccinated for all the reasons
00:24:04
that free Brook said or look everyone's
00:24:07
going to get Delta variant I mean maybe
00:24:09
this is the good news is that we can
00:24:10
rapidly get to herd immunity by everyone
00:24:12
getting Delta variant well that's the
00:24:13
inevitable outcome for any infectious
00:24:15
disease right a highly infectious
00:24:16
disease is either you can vaccinate or
00:24:19
everyone's going to get it uh and it's
00:24:20
gonna you know I mean you've got a Delta
00:24:22
variant maybe than whatever the you know
00:24:24
whatever the more dangerous deadly one
00:24:26
is yeah let me just highlight what I'm
00:24:27
most concerned about I I am most
00:24:29
concerned about what's what's happening
00:24:30
with sax it's just anecdotally speaking
00:24:32
I'm not going to speak to the I'll speak
00:24:34
to one statistic but like anecdotally
00:24:36
speaking I'm hearing this happening more
00:24:38
more frequently I don't know about you
00:24:39
guys other friends other people you know
00:24:41
but a lot of other people I'm hearing
00:24:43
about their double facts that are now
00:24:45
getting covered
00:24:46
so as that starts to happen uh the
00:24:49
implications for the economy I think are
00:24:52
pretty significant
00:24:53
um because I think people whether
00:24:55
there's a policy change or not people
00:24:58
are going to get scared again and people
00:25:00
if we're not kind of enforcing economic
00:25:02
lockdown people will go into social
00:25:03
lockdown and we're going to revisit uh
00:25:07
you know more of the behavior we saw
00:25:08
over the past year where people are
00:25:10
going to be nervous to travel uh people
00:25:12
are going to be nervous to fly people
00:25:13
are going to be nervous to go to
00:25:14
restaurants and you know the downstream
00:25:16
consequences of everyone kind of locking
00:25:18
up again even if the government doesn't
00:25:20
enforce lockups uh could be pretty
00:25:23
catastrophically are you feeling that
00:25:25
way yourself Freeburg in other words am
00:25:26
I going to lock myself up are you going
00:25:28
to go to dinner are you going to go to
00:25:30
travel to Italy or to you know Japan or
00:25:33
you know would you go to Disneyland with
00:25:35
your kids how is it affecting you your
00:25:37
personal Behavior being a man of science
00:25:40
uh so so my personal circumstances are a
00:25:42
little different right now uh not not to
00:25:44
get into it um uh just with my uh you
00:25:48
know my wife's pregnant and we're moving
00:25:49
houses and so we've got a bunch of
00:25:51
reasons why we're not traveling and and
00:25:53
exposing ourselves unnecessarily right
00:25:55
now
00:25:57
um but uh I I would say that at this
00:25:59
point uh you know if all other things
00:26:02
being equal would I go to Disneyland
00:26:03
with my kids I would probably wait right
00:26:06
now six to 12 weeks to see what happens
00:26:08
here
00:26:10
if I'm feeling that way now I think a
00:26:13
lot of people are going to be feeling
00:26:14
that way in in the next four weeks as
00:26:16
they hear about more friends getting
00:26:17
covered now you know the good news is
00:26:19
the hospitals and so so I am most
00:26:21
concerned we were in a very very very
00:26:23
very delicate economic recovery right
00:26:25
now and you know we have put out so much
00:26:27
money to stimulate this economy everyone
00:26:30
is so walking on like the razor's Edge
00:26:32
to keep things you know growing we were
00:26:34
afraid of inflation lumber prices today
00:26:36
by the way are lower than they were when
00:26:38
this whole kind of inflationary thing
00:26:39
started and everyone was freaking out
00:26:41
about it so um you know lumber prices
00:26:43
are lower than they were at the start of
00:26:44
the year which is you know like a lot of
00:26:46
this kind of inflation risk has kind of
00:26:47
come out of the equation already so the
00:26:49
markets have taken that pricing out and
00:26:51
now we're going to be in a circumstance
00:26:52
where people might cancel their travel
00:26:54
people might cancel their their
00:26:55
restaurants people might stop going to
00:26:57
the office again stop you know getting
00:26:59
in the car etc etc so I am most
00:27:02
concerned about like the psychological
00:27:04
effects of of what we're seeing what
00:27:06
these breakthrough infections the
00:27:08
frequency of them now if you look at the
00:27:10
Israel data Israel had zero deaths for
00:27:12
two weeks they're now averaging about
00:27:14
one death a day and despite this you
00:27:17
know huge increment they're getting
00:27:18
about I think 500 breakthrough
00:27:19
infections a day right now so that is
00:27:21
good statistical needs right
00:27:23
statistically these breakthrough
00:27:25
infections are not fatal they're not
00:27:27
causing hospitalizations they're they're
00:27:28
you know if you kind of did the math
00:27:30
going back a year and said these are the
00:27:32
actual statistics of covid people would
00:27:33
be like okay no big deal let's move on
00:27:35
it's a it's a tough kind of uh virus but
00:27:38
because of the circumstances where we we
00:27:40
are kind of under these these feelings
00:27:43
that this is a fatal disease and could
00:27:45
cause uh fatalities
00:27:47
um those statistics don't matter the
00:27:49
fear is what matters and people are
00:27:50
going to start to behave quite
00:27:51
differently I think in the next few
00:27:52
weeks I have a slightly different point
00:27:53
of view here but
00:27:55
um I think Freeburg you're you're
00:27:57
I think you're right in some respects
00:28:00
um but I don't think it's going to come
00:28:02
from people I don't think people uh I
00:28:04
think people are exhausted and they want
00:28:06
to go back to life as normal yeah and I
00:28:08
think this summer was a window into some
00:28:10
amount of normalcy for a lot of us and I
00:28:14
don't think we really do want to go back
00:28:17
um and so I think what's what's really
00:28:19
going to happen is there's going to be
00:28:20
essentially some form of class Warfare
00:28:24
and instead of Rich versus poor and left
00:28:26
versus right it's sort of between people
00:28:29
who believe in science and then the you
00:28:31
know ideologically dogmatic who refuse
00:28:33
to get it and that's going to play
00:28:36
itself out economically I agree with you
00:28:38
there's going to be meaningful forms of
00:28:40
economic discrimination against people
00:28:42
who
00:28:43
um are unnecessarily compounding risk
00:28:45
for the rest of us who want to deal with
00:28:47
it ideally touch wood as a common cold
00:28:50
like David said and move the [ __ ] on
00:28:53
and if we are prevented from doing so
00:28:56
because economic policy and Health Care
00:28:58
policy has to constantly get re-rated
00:29:00
for a cohort of people who could protect
00:29:03
themselves and everybody else but
00:29:04
chooses not to there is going to be a
00:29:07
real pushback on that
00:29:09
the second thing that I think is going
00:29:11
to happen is politicians proved that if
00:29:14
you give them a window to seize power
00:29:16
they will do it
00:29:17
and I think what's really going to
00:29:19
happen in the fall is if there's even a
00:29:21
small modicum of
00:29:23
risk which there will be as we just
00:29:26
talked about yeah it exists now yeah I
00:29:28
think it's the politicians that are
00:29:29
going to want to jump all over this and
00:29:31
say okay guys you know lockdowns here
00:29:33
you can't do this you can't do that so
00:29:35
literally just giving you some just at
00:29:36
the big grand reopening California's
00:29:38
back you could see him locking it back
00:29:39
up in September oh that's the best way
00:29:41
to it's the best way to Snuff out any
00:29:43
chance of the recall going against them
00:29:45
is that even if you were angry you're
00:29:46
not going to be allowed to basically
00:29:48
it'll be a massive form of Voters
00:29:50
oppression well I think that that too
00:29:52
that would backfire pretty bad you saw
00:29:55
the flip-flopping that he already did
00:29:56
actually on schools where the the
00:29:58
government of California basically said
00:30:00
hey you know we're going to mandate a
00:30:02
mask policy in the fall and then Newsome
00:30:05
came out because people freaked out and
00:30:07
said uh actually no each local
00:30:09
municipality can figure it out based on
00:30:11
you know what it what it means for them
00:30:13
the point is guys
00:30:15
um free Brook is right
00:30:17
these things aren't going away
00:30:19
we have a cohort of people who will
00:30:21
continue to allow this thing to become
00:30:23
worse than it has to be
00:30:25
and I think that there will be economic
00:30:27
repercussions and discrimination against
00:30:29
those people for that and I think
00:30:32
economically we are going to take a step
00:30:34
back because politicians will try to
00:30:37
slow the economy down again and there is
00:30:40
definitely from the right not to get
00:30:42
political here but they've been pretty
00:30:44
silent about encouraging people to get
00:30:46
vaccinated and um you know at CPAC and
00:30:49
other places people were cheering the
00:30:52
anti-vaxx movement Mitt Romney came out
00:30:54
uh we don't control conservative media
00:30:56
figures so far as I know at least I
00:30:58
don't that being said I think it's an
00:30:59
enormous error for anyone to suggest
00:31:01
that we shouldn't be taking vaccines
00:31:02
look the politicism politicization of
00:31:06
vaccination is an outrage and frankly
00:31:08
moronic Mitch McConnell came out and
00:31:10
says a polio victim myself when I was
00:31:11
young I've studied that disease I took
00:31:13
70 years 70 years to come up with two
00:31:15
vaccines that finally ended the polio
00:31:16
threat as a result of operation warp
00:31:19
speed we have not one not two but three
00:31:22
highly effective vaccines so I'm
00:31:23
perplexed by the difficulty we're having
00:31:24
finishing the job this is where you can
00:31:27
expect the politically correct companies
00:31:30
to act first because they're the woke
00:31:32
mob will force some action on this issue
00:31:36
whether you like it or not but this is
00:31:38
this is where the next petition will
00:31:39
come from Apple where the two or three
00:31:41
thousand employees who are vaccinated
00:31:43
Etc who have people with you know
00:31:46
um people in their households with with
00:31:48
uh who are immunologically suppressed
00:31:50
and they're going to say hey guys this
00:31:52
is crazy well that that petition might
00:31:54
be the first application that would make
00:31:55
sense because those employees are
00:31:57
directly impacted by other employees who
00:31:59
come to the workplace unvaccinated
00:32:00
unlike you know the issues around Israel
00:32:03
or Antonio's book whatever that they
00:32:05
shouldn't have taken a position on wait
00:32:06
a second you're saying Antonio's book
00:32:07
wouldn't make them feel safe and getting
00:32:09
coveted would make them unsafe yeah
00:32:11
actually actually yes yes yes
00:32:15
in the workplace is a real safety issue
00:32:18
uh not you know not whether somebody
00:32:20
wrote a book five years ago so so I
00:32:22
think they do I think employees do have
00:32:24
a right to say to their employers listen
00:32:26
are we going to be a vaccinated
00:32:27
workplace or not because it does impact
00:32:29
their risk but but Jason's your question
00:32:32
about
00:32:33
should people change their behavior in
00:32:35
light of this news Okay in light of the
00:32:37
fact that we now are learning about some
00:32:40
reduce effectiveness of the vaccines
00:32:41
here's what I would tell people sitting
00:32:44
where I am this is not a big deal I mean
00:32:46
for me okay it was not a big deal it was
00:32:48
like a mild cold I am not gonna change
00:32:51
my I'm gonna go back to normal like my
00:32:53
pre-covered behavior uh and I would tell
00:32:56
you like if you're double vax I don't
00:32:58
think you need to be that afraid of this
00:33:00
because you know my doctor said they are
00:33:02
seeing a bunch of these breakthrough
00:33:03
cases but they're all very mild it
00:33:05
really is like getting a cold I'm not
00:33:07
changing my behaviors I made my I made
00:33:09
my decision my risk assessment is if I
00:33:10
get it
00:33:12
um then I'm doubly protected uh and I'm
00:33:15
not going to wind up in the hospital I'm
00:33:16
going to focus all my energy on riding
00:33:17
my bike and and taking my kids out and
00:33:19
having a good time I'm not going back in
00:33:20
lockdown so I think that's right for you
00:33:22
but but here here's where it gets a
00:33:23
little bit complicated is my parents who
00:33:25
are in their 70s and one of them has an
00:33:27
immune condition that's what they should
00:33:28
do and I said listen if I were you guys
00:33:31
I would not be going to public places
00:33:32
I'd be masking up they're asking me if
00:33:35
they should go on a trip and I said no I
00:33:37
would actually if I were you I would
00:33:39
lock down until this blows over because
00:33:41
they're at elevated risk and so yeah for
00:33:44
me getting covid was like a mild case
00:33:47
but for them maybe it could be more
00:33:48
serious so all it takes is 10 of the
00:33:51
population acting like what you just
00:33:52
described you recommended to your
00:33:54
parents sex for there to be economic
00:33:56
ripples associated with this um uh this
00:33:59
this breakthrough kind of condition for
00:34:01
a while and that's where I have the most
00:34:02
concern is again like you know we're
00:34:04
kind of you're not concerned about the
00:34:06
deaths Freebird you're concerned about
00:34:07
the economic impact and the
00:34:09
psychological scars that are now in
00:34:11
place I will explain I I sent you guys a
00:34:14
link to the Reuters article where they
00:34:15
covered the press conference with the
00:34:16
prime minister of Israel the other day
00:34:18
and um basically they are taking what
00:34:21
they're calling a soft suppression
00:34:22
strategy
00:34:24
um where they're encouraging Israelis to
00:34:25
learn to live with the virus involving
00:34:28
the fewest possible restrictions and
00:34:30
avoiding a fourth National lockdown that
00:34:32
could do further harm to the economy and
00:34:34
he said implementing the strategy will
00:34:36
entail taking certain risks but in the
00:34:38
overall consideration including economic
00:34:41
factors this is the necessary balance
00:34:44
and so it's a it's a it's a very kind of
00:34:47
pointed position that they're coming to
00:34:49
I think the U.S government the federal
00:34:51
government's going to have to come to
00:34:52
the same one but we have different
00:34:54
states and different local governments
00:34:55
that are going to act differently and
00:34:57
because we've you know we have authority
00:34:59
um vested in those different
00:35:01
jurisdictions you could see different
00:35:03
public policy officials take different
00:35:06
positions and what we're talking about
00:35:07
if San Francisco said restaurants have
00:35:09
to go back to 25 capacity it would
00:35:12
decimate these already struggling small
00:35:14
businesses and there's no more stimulus
00:35:15
dollars available and so you kind of
00:35:17
think about this or 10 of people cancel
00:35:19
their vacation plans what's that going
00:35:21
to do to Airlines and hotels so again my
00:35:24
concern is are we about to hit a wave of
00:35:27
economic ripples that aren't necessarily
00:35:29
tied to what is the right thing to do
00:35:31
from a policy perspective or a science
00:35:33
or health perspective but really the
00:35:35
psychological effects of the scared and
00:35:37
concerned saying you know what there's
00:35:39
more money available that you know we
00:35:41
got bailed out before we'll get bailed
00:35:43
out again let's Implement a shutdown
00:35:45
let's Implement a lockdown let's not go
00:35:46
to work it's whatever the the decision
00:35:48
tree you may have as a business owner or
00:35:50
policy maker well there's an important
00:35:52
Point here which is listen kovitz can be
00:35:54
with us for a long time we're going to
00:35:56
need to make really smart cost benefit
00:35:58
analysis decisions in how to deal with
00:36:01
it we can't go back to lockdowns because
00:36:03
they didn't work and they're extremely
00:36:04
expensive we spent 10 trillion dollars
00:36:06
battling covid last year we cannot do
00:36:09
that again we don't have the the bullets
00:36:12
and are going to keep firing at this
00:36:13
thing like that we got to start making
00:36:14
Intelligent Decisions zeroism is not
00:36:17
going to work this idea that the premise
00:36:19
of zeroism is that we can stamp out
00:36:21
every last message of covet that maybe
00:36:24
that was even a possibility when
00:36:26
vaccines were 99 effective but now that
00:36:29
they're not there's no chance of
00:36:30
stamping out covet so we have got to
00:36:32
learn we've got to like the Israel
00:36:34
example we've got to learn to live with
00:36:37
this thing and make smart cost benefit
00:36:39
decisions but I also think you know this
00:36:42
is kind of a disaster for Humanity we
00:36:44
now have this new category of illness
00:36:46
that's rapidly mutating we don't know
00:36:48
what the end of it's going to be like I
00:36:51
said there's 1800 variants of the common
00:36:52
you know what though David is causing
00:36:54
the these symptoms by the way has anyone
00:36:55
noticed how many different symptoms this
00:36:58
virus causes in people there's over 200
00:37:01
uh well they've worked on it for a long
00:37:02
time David In fairness yes exactly
00:37:04
everyone knows it's a lab engineered
00:37:07
virus that's now a plague on Humanity
00:37:09
this is really a disaster this is gonna
00:37:11
I think permanently impact human life
00:37:14
expectancy I mean this is this is a
00:37:17
serious problem we could have avoided
00:37:19
this entire thing here in the United
00:37:21
States at least
00:37:22
if people just took the win how
00:37:25
frustrating is this that we would
00:37:28
probably have cases down to a thousand a
00:37:30
day and debts down to 10 a day like
00:37:33
Israel if we had just gotten everybody
00:37:36
to take one of the billions of excess
00:37:39
vaccines sitting on shelves and in CVS's
00:37:43
and Walgreens across this country how
00:37:45
stupid are we we don't have the
00:37:47
collectivism to to make those actions if
00:37:50
you think about what's happening in
00:37:51
Israel did
00:37:52
two different examples in China
00:37:54
collectivism manifests as like basically
00:37:57
a top-down you know uh
00:38:00
form of governance okay in in Israel
00:38:03
collectivism comes from a need for state
00:38:06
level security right I mean I've
00:38:08
traveled to Israel a lot I have worked
00:38:10
there and it's crazy when you see how
00:38:12
people cooperate together the minute you
00:38:15
hear the uh missile alarms right and so
00:38:18
there there is a way for people to do
00:38:20
cost-benefit analyzes in Israel because
00:38:22
it's a matter of life or death and
00:38:24
they've been trained to do that so
00:38:26
either it's imposed on you like in China
00:38:28
or people Bottoms Up can understand
00:38:30
these trade-offs like in Israel we are
00:38:33
in a very different place where
00:38:34
literally what we have are three things
00:38:37
that are in conflict with each other
00:38:40
Jason we have
00:38:41
politics and the desire for power
00:38:44
we have the deconstruction of Power by
00:38:47
social media and then we have the
00:38:49
traditional media trying to stay
00:38:51
relevant that's a toxic thing that's
00:38:53
spinning around and spinning around and
00:38:55
spinning around
00:38:58
trying to allocate this very ephemeral
00:39:00
thing called power and influence and we
00:39:02
don't know how it works anymore and so
00:39:04
we cannot get our [ __ ] together half the
00:39:06
people care about vegan [ __ ] milk the
00:39:09
other half the people care I mean it's
00:39:10
it's we are in a alternate universe as
00:39:13
bad as we are Europe and even Japan have
00:39:16
done even worse because I mean we our
00:39:19
our government was fairly efficient
00:39:21
about the distribution of the vaccines
00:39:22
in Europe they've just completely
00:39:24
botched it
00:39:25
um same thing in Japan so we are not the
00:39:28
worst on vaccination rates yes it should
00:39:30
be better but um well we are those
00:39:32
people capturing the opportunity David
00:39:34
we have the opportunity
00:39:37
America America is the most exceptional
00:39:40
country in the world it has been for
00:39:42
hundreds of years it should be for
00:39:44
several hundred more there is no excuse
00:39:46
for this country to have [ __ ] this up
00:39:49
this badly I've spent enough time as as
00:39:52
you guys have in Europe and in Japan
00:39:54
it's understandable why those countries
00:39:56
are in the positions they're in it is
00:39:58
not understandable by America's in the
00:40:00
position so dumb it's like it's like
00:40:01
having a 20-point lead and you just with
00:40:03
like eight minutes to go and you just
00:40:05
screw up and you lose the game so stupid
00:40:09
all right do we want to move on to the
00:40:10
billionaire Space Race yeah I think
00:40:12
that's positive news this company go uh
00:40:15
what's it called Virgin Galactic there's
00:40:18
a company called Virgin Galactic and
00:40:19
they take people to space it's two
00:40:21
hundred thousand dollars stock seems to
00:40:23
be doing pretty well
00:40:25
um anybody have thoughts on Richard
00:40:27
Branson getting to space I don't know
00:40:28
let's just randomly go to somebody
00:40:31
no congratulations in all seriousness
00:40:34
congratulations I cried Nat and I start
00:40:37
the SEC transcript public statement here
00:40:39
we go no Nat and I uh watched it
00:40:42
together
00:40:44
you cried and it was emotional uh and
00:40:46
it's emotional because you know I mean
00:40:49
being a little bit more on the inside
00:40:51
how hard they worked I mean we've all
00:40:54
been there where we're all toiling in
00:40:56
obscurity where there are moments where
00:40:59
everybody thinks that what you're doing
00:41:00
either is crazy or isn't going to work
00:41:02
or is going to fail
00:41:04
and there's a moment where you just have
00:41:06
to push through it right and find people
00:41:08
that believe in you
00:41:10
I think I came in very late to that but
00:41:13
I had the opportunity to find these
00:41:16
incredible people believe in them help
00:41:17
them give them Capital which was
00:41:19
essentially oxygen right that's oxygen
00:41:21
for a company
00:41:22
and then to see them achieve it it felt
00:41:25
so special to be a part of it so yeah I
00:41:27
mean I was really emotional
00:41:29
um and it was it was beautiful
00:41:32
um so I don't know I think this is the
00:41:34
beginning of the beginning
00:41:35
um I tweeted this out but basically if
00:41:37
you think about
00:41:38
and there's other stuff that we can't
00:41:40
talk about with some other companies
00:41:42
that we are all involved in David and I
00:41:43
particularly but here's the point guys
00:41:45
between sending people
00:41:49
and making us an interplanetary species
00:41:52
by creating pervasive internet access
00:41:54
and by enabling us to safely and
00:41:57
reliably transport people either point
00:42:00
to point suborbitaly or basically into
00:42:02
space
00:42:04
we are completely reimagining how the
00:42:06
human race can work and I think that's
00:42:09
incredible and to be a part of that is
00:42:12
really special
00:42:13
there was a lot of people who got very
00:42:15
negative on Twitter I noticed there was
00:42:17
a lot of people that said you know no
00:42:20
like you know maybe now we can deal with
00:42:22
I don't know child hunger or you know
00:42:24
hey why are all these billionaires doing
00:42:25
this out of the other end I took a step
00:42:28
back and I thought my gosh a
00:42:30
people are increased there's a small
00:42:32
virulent cohort of people that are
00:42:34
incredibly negative and B doesn't even
00:42:38
know what they're talking about because
00:42:39
you're talking about issues of State
00:42:42
responsibility and confusing it for what
00:42:44
private citizens are doing to advance a
00:42:47
set of technologies that I think have
00:42:48
broad appeal so those are my thoughts I
00:42:51
mean I was I I watched every minute of
00:42:53
it and I thought it was incredible just
00:42:54
to add to that um yeah I want to I want
00:42:56
to take the part that all the naysayers
00:42:58
and the negativity I mean chamoth is
00:43:00
right all the very online people
00:43:02
immediately came out attacking this
00:43:06
extraordinary accomplishment an act of
00:43:09
Bravery by Branson I mean this is a
00:43:10
billionaire he doesn't need to be
00:43:11
risking his life launching himself into
00:43:13
space I mean this is a courageous act
00:43:16
you know he's putting his his um his
00:43:19
life where his mouth is and you had all
00:43:21
these very online people but you had one
00:43:24
CNN commentator basically said this was
00:43:26
bad for the environment you had uh
00:43:28
another one saying that calling him a
00:43:30
tax sheet then there was another whiner
00:43:34
who said what about all the starving
00:43:35
children in the world I mean it just
00:43:37
went on and on like this and Mike Solana
00:43:40
had a pretty funny tweet summing up the
00:43:43
sort of the left's
00:43:45
um argument thusly he said number one
00:43:48
this is their argument according to
00:43:50
Solana one money is evil two therefore
00:43:53
people with money are evil three
00:43:55
therefore things people with money care
00:43:56
about evil I mean that is basically the
00:43:59
level of sophistication everybody's got
00:44:01
the argument that's being made it's it's
00:44:03
that that's the argument that the left
00:44:04
is Right everybody's a bond villain
00:44:06
right but here here's the problem is
00:44:08
that first of all we do get tremendous
00:44:10
benefits out of these innovators who are
00:44:14
pushing the boundaries of Science and
00:44:16
Technology and Engineering
00:44:18
um you know Branson actually went on
00:44:19
Stephen Colbert show and defended it he
00:44:21
said he said listen uh I think they're
00:44:23
not fully this is Branson he said I
00:44:25
think they're not fully educated to what
00:44:27
space does for Earth is connecting the
00:44:29
billions of people who are not connected
00:44:31
uh down here he said every single
00:44:33
spaceship that we've sent putting
00:44:35
satellites up there monitoring different
00:44:36
things around the world like the
00:44:38
degradation of rainforests monitoring
00:44:39
food distribution even monitoring things
00:44:41
like climate change these things are
00:44:43
essential for us back on Earth so we
00:44:45
need more spaceships going up to space
00:44:47
not less so you know they're really just
00:44:50
kind of ignorant about the benefits of
00:44:52
Technology
00:44:53
and what do they want to do with the
00:44:55
money anyway you know we've got all the
00:44:57
yes we do have all these problems on
00:44:58
Earth but so many of our problems are
00:45:00
not a problem of underfunding we have
00:45:02
tons of money going to the problem of
00:45:04
homelessness in California it just keeps
00:45:06
getting worse because we have the wrong
00:45:07
approach we have on education we have
00:45:10
very the wrong ideas
00:45:12
organization we have the wrong execution
00:45:15
fix the operating details it's not a
00:45:18
money issue exactly take education in
00:45:20
California we have very high levels of
00:45:22
per pupil spending and our test scores
00:45:24
keep going down why because we have
00:45:26
unions controlling the schools there's
00:45:28
no competition we're getting rid of
00:45:30
testing we've eliminated day testing we
00:45:32
solved that problem we spent more as a
00:45:34
percentage of GDP on Healthcare than any
00:45:36
other Western country in the world yet
00:45:38
the life expectancy of white men which
00:45:40
is basically the top of the Pyramid of
00:45:41
healthcare is now sub 80 years old what
00:45:44
is going on all of these if all of these
00:45:47
negative naysayers could actually just
00:45:49
get into the arena and try to do
00:45:52
something right instead of watching
00:45:54
whining instead of a professional Winer
00:45:57
class they have no ideas they have no
00:45:59
ideas they have no executions they just
00:46:01
have gripes and no ability to execute
00:46:04
apparently yeah why don't they come up
00:46:06
with new programs actually Test new
00:46:08
programs at a hyper local level to see
00:46:10
what works okay can I tell you why
00:46:13
can I Can I Tell You Why
00:46:16
these sort of like leftist whiners
00:46:20
are not motivated to actually do the
00:46:22
hard work
00:46:23
meaning even even if they have an idea
00:46:27
for Education the precondition to
00:46:29
working on an education program or a
00:46:30
healthcare program is they may need to
00:46:32
spend four or five years in the bowels
00:46:34
in obscurity just learning pay ing their
00:46:37
dues they don't want to do that either
00:46:39
because they grew up in a culture of
00:46:40
kindergarten soccer everybody gets the
00:46:42
gold star everybody gets to touch the
00:46:44
ball everybody gets to be at the front
00:46:45
of the line
00:46:46
and they're not willing to put in the
00:46:49
work because the minute they realize how
00:46:50
much actual work is demanded of progress
00:46:53
they run away because they're scared and
00:46:56
the reason they're scared is because
00:46:57
somewhere along the way somebody tricked
00:46:59
them
00:47:00
that it was not actually about trying it
00:47:03
was actually about succeeding and that
00:47:05
is the biggest failure that we could do
00:47:07
to people is all of a sudden tricking
00:47:09
them to believe you have to have it to
00:47:11
work so they'd rather be called monitors
00:47:13
critics
00:47:17
failure is just as good because you're
00:47:19
one step closer to succeeding somewhere
00:47:21
along the way Unfortunately they were
00:47:22
not taught that incredible secret hiding
00:47:25
in plain sight Friedberg what do you
00:47:26
think of the Space Race and the hall
00:47:27
monitor Winer class if you guys look uh
00:47:30
I was going to send these statistics
00:47:31
earlier but if you look at the amount of
00:47:33
venture capital money that's gone into
00:47:35
um uh into uh private space companies
00:47:40
space technology companies I think it
00:47:42
was a few hundred million dollars call
00:47:44
it three to four hundred million dollars
00:47:45
pretty consistently from 2011 through
00:47:48
2014 pretty flat
00:47:50
and then in 2015 I think this is when
00:47:53
SpaceX started to kind of create a lot
00:47:54
of momentum and hype that private
00:47:56
companies can't actually build
00:47:57
businesses
00:47:58
um in kind of call it the space industry
00:48:01
the number jumped to 3 billion a year
00:48:03
and then it was a little over three and
00:48:04
a half billion in 16 and then it jumped
00:48:06
to almost 5 billion and 17 it was a
00:48:08
little bit down in 18. 2020 it's climbed
00:48:10
to almost 10 billion and in q1 of this
00:48:13
year I think we're at 2 billion
00:48:15
uh Venture Capital money going into
00:48:17
private space companies so there's
00:48:19
clearly
00:48:20
um a great deal of momentum in this
00:48:22
industry the question is always what's
00:48:25
the market at the end and so if you
00:48:27
break out how do these companies make
00:48:29
money one is to provide services to
00:48:31
governments you know launch services and
00:48:34
then taking people to the space station
00:48:36
and what have you and SpaceX has
00:48:37
obviously built a tremendous business in
00:48:39
that there has been obviously a lot of
00:48:41
interest in tourism
00:48:43
um and I think it's uh you know we're
00:48:45
seeing this first breakthrough with um
00:48:47
with Virgin Galactic and we're going to
00:48:49
find out over the next couple of years
00:48:51
is there a tourism Market
00:48:53
historically there's been an interest in
00:48:55
a market for a visual uh satellites but
00:49:00
you know if you look at some of the
00:49:01
financials of companies like Planet labs
00:49:03
they did a few Acquisitions in space
00:49:04
Imaging and the revenue hasn't really
00:49:07
taken off there and then mining was
00:49:09
always this other question is can we go
00:49:11
out and mine you know Rare Minerals from
00:49:13
space and that one is just you know if
00:49:15
you do the math on it it's so far away
00:49:17
it's impossible to kind of model
00:49:19
so I think over the next and then
00:49:21
finally it's Communications and
00:49:22
Communications are cheaper to run on
00:49:24
Earth if you're in cities versus you
00:49:25
know the the SpaceX model is to reach
00:49:27
rural areas that it's going to be more
00:49:29
affordable to do this through space
00:49:31
um and so you know there's um there's
00:49:34
obviously a ton of momentum and a ton of
00:49:36
interest in uh in private companies
00:49:38
getting to space everyone right now it
00:49:40
seems is trying to figure out what's the
00:49:42
market right what's the how big is the
00:49:43
market how big is the business and you
00:49:45
know how quickly can you actually see
00:49:46
that Capital turn around into real
00:49:47
Revenue
00:49:49
um so you know there's this kind of
00:49:51
Market question that I think is still
00:49:52
outstanding
00:49:54
in terms of you know the opportunity uh
00:49:58
if you go back to like the 15th century
00:50:01
I think something like 60 to 70 percent
00:50:03
of ships Maritime travel uh you know uh
00:50:08
got into shipwrecks you know the uh and
00:50:11
you know that's around when
00:50:12
um you know we sailed across the
00:50:13
Atlantic or the Spanish sailed across
00:50:15
the Atlantic are funded no or they or
00:50:16
they disappeared or they disappear I
00:50:18
mean they basically crashed it didn't
00:50:19
work it was a one-way trip sometimes to
00:50:22
the bottom of the ocean if you were
00:50:23
sitting in Spain in 1450 and someone
00:50:27
said hey these ships it's going to be a
00:50:30
great business we're going to build lots
00:50:31
of ships and we're gonna go out maybe
00:50:32
we'll get trade routes going maybe we'll
00:50:34
discover new land maybe we'll make money
00:50:35
maybe we'll take people on trips on
00:50:37
these ships you would be like this is
00:50:39
crazy half the people are dying there's
00:50:41
no Market on the other side so you know
00:50:44
we are and yeah you would have been
00:50:46
totally wrong yeah and you are in that
00:50:48
15th century moment right now with the
00:50:51
space industry would anyone in the space
00:50:53
would anyone a ship business in the 15th
00:50:55
century have been able to predict
00:50:57
Carnival Cruise Lines or been able to
00:51:00
predict Evergreen ships taking stuff
00:51:02
from China to America with these huge
00:51:05
shipping crates would anyone have been
00:51:06
able to predict
00:51:08
um you know uh going down to the bottom
00:51:11
of the Atlantic I mean like all of the
00:51:13
technology and the entire industry that
00:51:15
kind of came out of that
00:51:17
um you know that that set of pioneering
00:51:19
activity in the 15th century transformed
00:51:21
the planet transformed the economy uh
00:51:24
transformed humanity and um you know
00:51:26
it's very it's very hard it's very hard
00:51:28
to sit here today and say hey I know
00:51:30
where space is go where the space
00:51:32
industry is going I know what's going to
00:51:33
be possible but I can tell you that if
00:51:35
history is any predictor of the future
00:51:38
um you know this pioneering work that's
00:51:40
going on which is burning tons of money
00:51:41
and and everyone's kind of questioning
00:51:43
whether there's businesses here it could
00:51:45
transform our species once again so
00:51:48
um yeah David your 15th uh Century
00:51:52
shipping example is so beautiful full
00:51:54
three things that came out of that which
00:51:57
I think we all value
00:51:58
One Insurance
00:52:01
to tort law and Carrie exactly and three
00:52:06
was basically how they did risk
00:52:08
management so that you know each ship
00:52:10
would take a little piece of everybody
00:52:11
else's cargo so that some of the cargo
00:52:13
would always get to Marketplace of the
00:52:15
merge Lloyds of London marketing places
00:52:16
yeah Lloyd to London emerged because of
00:52:18
the the maritime insurance that was
00:52:19
required and the and almost all PNC
00:52:21
Insurance can trace its roots back to
00:52:23
Maritime Insurance during that that era
00:52:25
wow and so so these these ancillary
00:52:28
industries that emerged were like
00:52:29
surprising right it's almost business
00:52:31
models emerge because you had to figure
00:52:33
out how you do the Arbitrage here and
00:52:34
carry is the perfect example people
00:52:36
don't understand the Venture Capital
00:52:37
Carry we get 20 of the profits was
00:52:40
designed so that people with ships the
00:52:42
captain would get to say we get 20 of
00:52:44
whatever makes it there now you're
00:52:45
aligned whatever makes it there you get
00:52:48
20 off okay I'm gonna I'm gonna go
00:52:50
through that storm and I'm gonna try to
00:52:51
get it there and we don't there's so
00:52:52
many unknowns but just looking at the
00:52:55
one thing you know starlink
00:52:57
um I was doing a little research today
00:52:58
about internet penetration we've got you
00:53:00
know close to five billion people on the
00:53:02
internet now but a very small number of
00:53:05
them are on broadband it's like 20 30
00:53:07
somewhere in that number it's hard it's
00:53:09
hard to get an exact number there
00:53:10
but if you think about what's going to
00:53:12
happen to humanity we're talking about
00:53:14
billions of people who did not have
00:53:16
access to broadband and they are going
00:53:19
to go
00:53:20
from not having you know if you think
00:53:23
about what we went through in the west
00:53:24
when the internet first came out and we
00:53:26
got our first Broadband connections you
00:53:27
know to find us like DSL or whatever we
00:53:30
had libraries we had books we had
00:53:31
colleges we had stores everywhere Barnes
00:53:35
and Noble so the internet was
00:53:36
unbelievably transformative but we were
00:53:39
in a modern society now you go to the
00:53:40
developing world and they're going to go
00:53:43
from you know not even having running
00:53:45
water in some cases in their homes or
00:53:47
electricity or you know variable to
00:53:49
having broadband and they're gonna have
00:53:51
access to YouTube Circa 2022 2023
00:53:55
they're gonna have access to you know
00:53:57
MIT courseware or brilliant.org and all
00:54:01
of this information and shopping we're
00:54:03
going to take a billion or two billion
00:54:05
people and give them Broadband instantly
00:54:07
within a decade this is going to change
00:54:10
the the face of the planet
00:54:12
I think that that's the Revolution and
00:54:15
it's not just Starling doing it there's
00:54:16
like three competitors to starlink
00:54:18
obviously starlink's got the biggest
00:54:19
lead yeah before SpaceX doing this and
00:54:21
and and and there were others there was
00:54:23
a company called o3b it was uh stood for
00:54:26
other three billion and they had raised
00:54:28
a ton of money to do this I just I I by
00:54:30
the way I just want to speak to like a
00:54:31
trend that we've seen
00:54:33
and and also speak to the the quality of
00:54:36
elon's leadership
00:54:38
um so many companies have tried this
00:54:40
Google talked about it for years
00:54:43
well Project Loon was a follow-on to
00:54:46
what we talked about early on at Google
00:54:47
which was putting up satellites and
00:54:49
ultimately Google had a satellite
00:54:51
program that was killed in favor of
00:54:54
buying a company called Skybox and
00:54:56
Skybox was this Coastal adventurers back
00:54:58
startup that was trying to make a
00:54:59
smaller scale startup and if you guys
00:55:01
will remember around the early 2010s
00:55:05
um there were a bunch of startups that
00:55:06
emerged that were all about building
00:55:08
small scale
00:55:10
um uh satellites that could go up into
00:55:11
low earth orbit and do things like
00:55:13
Imaging and Communications and a bunch
00:55:15
of these companies were banking on the
00:55:17
fact that the cost per kilogram to get
00:55:20
your payload into space was declining
00:55:22
pretty precipitously so they were like
00:55:24
let's make super cheap commodity you
00:55:26
know space Imaging or space
00:55:27
communication boxes put them in space
00:55:29
and after a couple of years they'll fall
00:55:31
out of orbit and burn up but it doesn't
00:55:32
matter if we can get enough use out of
00:55:34
them and they cost so little to put into
00:55:35
space and they cost a little to make
00:55:37
let's put hundreds of them is a company
00:55:38
called Planet Labs that that does this
00:55:41
that's I think going public via SPAC now
00:55:43
they again they've been challenged with
00:55:44
building the business and imaging but
00:55:46
there was a Google bought a company for
00:55:47
I think half a billion dollars called
00:55:49
Skybox trying to do this which it was
00:55:50
like Imaging slash comms and they had a
00:55:53
bigger refrigerator size box that they
00:55:54
were trying to put up ultimate
00:55:56
ultimately Google's Google's found that
00:55:58
out to Planet labs and the whole thing
00:56:00
kind of you know became Imaging but I I
00:56:02
just want to highlight that this has
00:56:03
been a big trend for a while and it
00:56:05
speaks to the quality of Elon on his
00:56:07
leadership because the fact that this
00:56:09
guy did what 20 other 30 other people
00:56:11
have tried companies have tried to do
00:56:13
for the past decade or so and he said
00:56:15
you know what instead of just providing
00:56:17
the uh the infrastructure to get all
00:56:19
these devices into space we're just
00:56:20
going to build the actual devices get
00:56:22
this thing up and just go crazy with it
00:56:23
and put our Capital into it
00:56:25
um and it's really impressive to see
00:56:27
because it's such a no-brainer and
00:56:28
people have been talking about this this
00:56:29
opportunity for over a decade and these
00:56:31
guys just have absolutely rushed the
00:56:33
field and they could build an incredible
00:56:36
business uh out of this and you know the
00:56:38
two most important companies in
00:56:39
Satellite Communications are starlink
00:56:41
and swarm uh and swarm was a company
00:56:44
that I seeded and sax did the series a
00:56:46
and the if you talk to the founders of
00:56:48
that company you know they'll give you
00:56:50
this use case in I think it was in 2014.
00:56:53
do you guys remember there was a like a
00:56:55
Malaysian Airlines flight that just
00:56:56
disappeared yeah disappeared 370.
00:57:00
yeah Malaysian Airlines flight 370 and
00:57:02
it was like 230 240 people that passed
00:57:06
away
00:57:07
and the the most you know indelible
00:57:11
question that I remember from this was
00:57:14
um we we couldn't track it and not to
00:57:16
myself how is that even possible how do
00:57:18
you how do you lose how do you lose a
00:57:20
flight in the middle of the Earth it's
00:57:21
not possible it turns out it is because
00:57:24
our internet coverage is so sad that it
00:57:26
only covers small areas and it it it
00:57:30
made obvious that like you know we
00:57:32
should live in a world where there is
00:57:34
absolutely pervasive internet access
00:57:36
everywhere every single little shred
00:57:40
inch of the world should be covered and
00:57:43
saturated that should never happen you
00:57:45
know the people should be able to have
00:57:47
closure they should be able to go and
00:57:49
get that plane recover the bodies give
00:57:50
them proper funeral these are simple
00:57:52
things but they're human things that we
00:57:54
should be doing as human beings right
00:57:55
and just think about the iot internet
00:57:57
access enables this and the idea that we
00:57:59
can't do that is shocking and so
00:58:01
hey I agree with you fever we uh elon's
00:58:04
incredible and I think that um within
00:58:06
the next five years we'll probably have
00:58:07
pervasive internet access everywhere in
00:58:09
the earth and that's that's
00:58:10
transformational you know the the second
00:58:12
most valuable private company in space
00:58:15
is
00:58:16
um also a company that you know uh uh I
00:58:20
invested in led the series a called
00:58:21
relativity space and their idea which I
00:58:24
think will help everybody that wants to
00:58:27
go to Mars and other places is why don't
00:58:30
we just 3D print the Rockets
00:58:33
and why don't we 3D print the engines
00:58:35
and why don't we make that functionally
00:58:37
useful because it basically takes the
00:58:40
cost of a rocket and divides it by 10.
00:58:42
and these printers are small enough
00:58:44
where you know you can actually send
00:58:47
them to and dismantle them and take them
00:58:49
with you to Mars and set them up there
00:58:51
and all of a sudden you can print the
00:58:53
parts that you need to get back to Earth
00:58:54
as an example
00:58:56
um so I think that additive
00:58:58
manufacturing has an enormous upside
00:59:01
here in space
00:59:03
um and I think that that's another area
00:59:05
that's going to be really really anybody
00:59:06
read Andy Weir's Hail Mary yet the guy
00:59:09
who did the Martian
00:59:11
he's a science fiction author it's
00:59:13
really great because you don't actually
00:59:14
know what you're going to find out there
00:59:15
I think that's one of the things that
00:59:17
you know to to freeburg's point what do
00:59:19
we find out there what if we find a
00:59:21
compound out there that like plutonium
00:59:24
has some attributes that we could
00:59:26
leverage in very small amounts to create
00:59:28
unlimited energy or unlimited prosperity
00:59:31
in some ways there are there are things
00:59:33
that can exist that we have not been
00:59:34
exposed to and of course the probability
00:59:37
is there are many things that we have
00:59:38
yet to be exposed to 100 yeah look I
00:59:41
don't subscribe to to uh to that thesis
00:59:45
um I'll I'll tell you
00:59:47
um I'll tell you why and and this maybe
00:59:49
also speaks a little bit to some of the
00:59:50
counterpoints against
00:59:52
um the space industry getting the
00:59:54
attention and resourcing it has relative
00:59:56
to call it other places to allocate
00:59:58
capital and human resourcing
01:00:00
um and that is like the tools that we
01:00:03
have in science and engineering today as
01:00:04
a species uh continues uh to expand at
01:00:08
kind of a geometric Pace our ability to
01:00:11
convert any molecule into any other
01:00:14
molecule is basically fulfilled now it's
01:00:18
a function at this point of how much
01:00:20
energy and time it takes to do that work
01:00:22
so almost all industry the function of
01:00:24
Industries to convert molecules from one
01:00:26
form to another and we have tools
01:00:28
ranging from Hardware engineering
01:00:30
mechanical engineering and more recently
01:00:32
in the early 20th century chemical
01:00:34
engineering and in the 21st century
01:00:35
biochemical engineering those tools are
01:00:38
allowing us to invent discover and
01:00:41
convert molecules and even in some cases
01:00:44
kind of Elemental forms that into nearly
01:00:49
anything else we want to produce and the
01:00:51
technology is accelerating in such a way
01:00:53
the set of Technologies compound that if
01:00:55
you think about 100 years from now 200
01:00:58
years from now 500 years from now the
01:00:59
human species theoretically for very
01:01:01
minimal time and very minimal energy
01:01:03
should be able to have something that
01:01:05
looks Akin today to the Star Trek
01:01:07
replicator you basically type into a
01:01:09
device what you'd like to make and it
01:01:10
makes it it for you in a few minutes and
01:01:13
you could just like Mr Fusion and Back
01:01:14
to the Future too you could put any
01:01:15
input you want into the thing you could
01:01:17
throw in bananas and cans and whatever
01:01:18
and out comes this thing you want to
01:01:20
make so as the human species evolve
01:01:23
towards that capability
01:01:25
and we don't need to get into the
01:01:26
details that's just like the general
01:01:27
trend line it becomes less relevant that
01:01:30
we need to go get other molecules or go
01:01:32
get other things from extra planetary
01:01:34
sources the planet earth has you know on
01:01:38
the order of 10 to the 23rd atoms
01:01:40
um you know two-thirds of the surface is
01:01:43
water there's so much that is like
01:01:45
unexplored and untapped from a resource
01:01:47
perspective within this this spaceship
01:01:49
that we're already on that the argument
01:01:51
would be made that our technology is
01:01:53
allowing us to effectively recreate all
01:01:55
of our fantastic dreams right here where
01:01:57
we live today and you know first thing
01:02:00
we're going to have to do is fix this
01:02:01
planet and fix the ecosystems that that
01:02:03
are kind of at risk but as we progress
01:02:05
and as these Technologies progress we
01:02:07
can do these extraordinary things that
01:02:08
we don't necessarily need to rely on
01:02:10
extra planetary travel and colonization
01:02:12
in order to achieve those objectives so
01:02:14
so that that's that's the that's the
01:02:16
optimistic counter argument yeah but we
01:02:18
keep finding things like these molecules
01:02:21
and Titan's atmosphere Etc that we can't
01:02:24
explain and we're finding those two
01:02:25
telescopes let alone we get out there I
01:02:27
mean we might be able to create them
01:02:29
sure yeah but we're going to discover
01:02:31
them in other places we they may be
01:02:34
beyond our human comprehension that
01:02:36
these things could even exist David
01:02:37
there are interesting things we're
01:02:38
seeing there for sure and I think um you
01:02:41
know there's a I think I mentioned this
01:02:42
book before uh it's so esoteric and
01:02:44
difficult but uh it's called Uh every
01:02:47
life is on fire by this guy named Jeremy
01:02:49
England and he highlights how all of
01:02:51
evolution is effectively predicted by
01:02:53
statistical physics and the energy bath
01:02:56
and the molecules within a system
01:02:59
um create a structure of molecules that
01:03:02
you wouldn't see except for that
01:03:05
condition meaning that over time the
01:03:07
complexity of that system evolves to
01:03:10
create an equilibrium with the energy uh
01:03:13
that it's uh that it's covered in so
01:03:15
what we see on planet Earth he argues is
01:03:17
organic molecules in what we call life
01:03:19
which are these molecules that are
01:03:21
really good at copying themselves to
01:03:23
absorb energy and dissipate energy so
01:03:25
the molecules and the energy state of
01:03:28
you know Titan is different than what we
01:03:30
see at Earth so the way the molecules
01:03:31
have evolved there are so different than
01:03:33
what we've seen on Earth and you can see
01:03:34
these incredible concepts of what we we
01:03:37
wouldn't call life today but really
01:03:38
could be defined as life there and so
01:03:41
there's certainly a lot to learn and a
01:03:42
lot to explore it doesn't mean that
01:03:44
we're Limited in terms of our ability to
01:03:46
kind of realize those things here on
01:03:47
planet Earth but uh you're absolutely
01:03:49
right like exploration is the core of
01:03:51
being a human right and for people who
01:03:53
don't know Titan is one of the it's the
01:03:55
largest moon of Saturn and it's
01:03:58
got its own really weird dense
01:04:00
atmosphere that's icy and
01:04:02
slushy and we don't even we we can't
01:04:05
even comprehend half the stuff going on
01:04:07
there yet would any of you guys take the
01:04:08
Richard Branson
01:04:10
um uh trip would you do the uh you know
01:04:13
like next week or or two year I guess at
01:04:15
what point would you be comfortable
01:04:16
taking it two months I'm sure you've
01:04:17
take you're you're sorry I can't answer
01:04:18
for sacks the answer is no
01:04:20
600 and 600 and something so how many
01:04:23
flights more would you want to see you
01:04:25
would want to do 10 more flights 20 more
01:04:27
flights
01:04:27
no I feel I feel really confident that
01:04:30
we know what we're doing the this flight
01:04:31
was so critical because it was about
01:04:33
figuring out what it was like to have
01:04:35
passengers in the back and how they'd
01:04:36
all behave when you had multiple folks
01:04:38
and I think once that readout is done
01:04:41
and Richard apparently took a bunch of
01:04:42
notes
01:04:43
um
01:04:45
so you know we'll uh we'll be starting
01:04:47
commercial Ops I think uh you know the
01:04:49
next two or three quarters so wow
01:04:52
yeah
01:04:54
well I mean if if I had a 500 million
01:04:58
dollar super yacht like Jeff Bezos
01:05:00
that's where I'd be hanging out I don't
01:05:01
think I'd be blasting I would be
01:05:03
blasting myself into space but I mean
01:05:06
look more power to him I mean they got
01:05:08
you know they certainly uh he's doing
01:05:11
those yeah he's doing both yeah Jacob
01:05:13
would you do it I you know I my my
01:05:16
theory is with kids I kind of think
01:05:19
differently about it but if I was over
01:05:21
70 like Branson certainly I would do it
01:05:23
yeah I would have to have that
01:05:25
conversation with my spouse and my kids
01:05:27
and say
01:05:28
you know hey this opportunity exists
01:05:31
they've done let's call it a hundred
01:05:33
flights uh somewhere in that
01:05:35
neighborhood I would I think I would
01:05:36
feel pretty comfortable doing it but I
01:05:38
would want to check in with my my family
01:05:40
and kids and see if we were all in sync
01:05:41
on taking that level I I stopped riding
01:05:43
motorcycles as an example I think that
01:05:46
flying in space tourism in the next year
01:05:48
or two will be a safer than riding a
01:05:50
motorcycle and then eventually it'll be
01:05:52
safer than you know driving a car or
01:05:55
something it's it's quite possible I was
01:05:57
I was watching a space show with my
01:05:59
daughter she's three years old on the
01:06:01
couch the other day and then she um she
01:06:04
was like oh space it looks so fun and
01:06:06
I'm like make you know I said do you
01:06:08
want to go to space and she said she
01:06:09
looked back at me and she said I want to
01:06:11
go to space with you and it made me cry
01:06:12
and it was the first time I'd ever
01:06:13
thought like man first time you'd ever
01:06:15
cried first time I ever cried yeah I
01:06:17
just uploaded that to his firmware yeah
01:06:19
crying but I was like what are these
01:06:21
water particles on my chin but I was
01:06:24
going down my head like no desire I
01:06:25
would say before she said that to go to
01:06:27
space but it was a um
01:06:30
poignant moment that like man this like
01:06:33
moment of like inspiration of like going
01:06:35
to space is something that like I think
01:06:37
is going to inspire
01:06:39
um you know a generation and and I told
01:06:40
my daughter I said you know you are
01:06:42
going to go to space uh I hope I could
01:06:44
be there with you yeah yeah can I give
01:06:46
you an idea
01:06:47
two different ideas but they're roughly
01:06:49
related when each of your kids turn 18
01:06:53
um buy them a ticket to space so that
01:06:54
they become an astronaut
01:06:56
which I think is like a beautiful kind
01:06:58
of an idea where like you know what an
01:07:00
incredible present to give somebody as
01:07:01
they mature into age you know if you if
01:07:03
you read if you if you basically have
01:07:05
heard all these astronauts have said you
01:07:07
know what the the overview effect like
01:07:09
when you're above the Earth looking down
01:07:11
it has this completely transformational
01:07:13
effect on your outlook on life and the
01:07:16
planet
01:07:17
and so you know to the extent that
01:07:19
that's a quantifiable thing to give that
01:07:22
to your child seems like an enormous
01:07:24
gift or
01:07:25
or um when everybody's of age or
01:07:28
whatever where all of you guys go as a
01:07:30
family so that the whole cabin is your
01:07:31
family that would be really cool too
01:07:33
either those ideas I will do one of
01:07:35
those too hold on a second Shabbat there
01:07:37
were four people correct in this fight
01:07:38
if I remember this one there's four
01:07:40
passengers yeah okay wait a second there
01:07:42
are four besties
01:07:44
how are you not setting up a flight for
01:07:46
the 100th episode of all in to be on
01:07:49
Virgin Galactic can you imagine watching
01:07:52
David cry and be so scared I mean I
01:07:55
could pretty much guarantee obviously
01:07:57
you guys have to buy tickets but I can
01:07:59
pretty much guarantee you that if the
01:08:00
three of you decided to buy tickets I
01:08:03
I'm pretty sure I can organize that we
01:08:05
all go on the same flight that would be
01:08:07
ratings
01:08:11
that's all I need is to be entombed with
01:08:13
you guys for eternity
01:08:16
you know
01:08:21
can you address the Von Carmen line
01:08:24
controversy around you know what's the
01:08:26
right point to be in space because it
01:08:27
came up a lot this week in the news I
01:08:29
didn't want to kind of came up by one
01:08:31
person well no no there was people
01:08:33
talking about on the news and stuff like
01:08:34
maybe you can just blue origin being
01:08:36
lame honestly that's so petty by Bezos
01:08:39
so sure maybe just share what happened
01:08:41
and kind of uh you know the point of
01:08:42
view on this be awesome but basically
01:08:44
the question is what defines space right
01:08:47
so
01:08:49
um if you if you just like start from
01:08:50
the bottom from
01:08:52
um
01:08:53
uh ground level right you have the
01:08:56
trophosphere right so you have like the
01:08:58
first kind of like
01:08:59
10 20 kilometers or so right then you
01:09:02
have the stratosphere right that's where
01:09:04
like
01:09:05
a lot of like weather balloon activity
01:09:07
happens
01:09:08
that's at 50 kilometers then you have
01:09:10
the mesosphere right that's where you'll
01:09:11
see things like meteors and stuff
01:09:13
then you get to basically the Carmen
01:09:16
line which is around I don't know 100
01:09:17
kilometers or so there are a bunch of
01:09:19
countries that either have no opinion
01:09:23
or point to this kind of group to Define
01:09:28
what the beginning of space is
01:09:30
and they defined that at about 100
01:09:32
clicks which is I want to say 62
01:09:35
miles okay
01:09:37
then there's the United States
01:09:40
um
01:09:41
and the dod and NASA Etc and we uh
01:09:47
Define it at a different level 50 odd
01:09:49
miles
01:09:51
and so in the United States you need to
01:09:55
pass the U.S regulatory body's
01:09:58
definition of what the threshold of
01:09:59
space is to be considered an astronaut
01:10:03
um there is other countries that would
01:10:06
then point to a different line the
01:10:07
Carmen line as the line
01:10:10
um I think the point is it's all Much
01:10:12
Ado About Nothing I think in the end I
01:10:14
think virgin stated that they went to 52
01:10:17
and a half or 53 and a half
01:10:19
um you know things are iterative so over
01:10:21
time you'll folks will get higher and
01:10:24
higher
01:10:25
but the point is
01:10:27
okay and what you basically go into
01:10:29
space you get to see the planet you get
01:10:32
to feel microgravity
01:10:34
you know you get the benefit of the
01:10:36
overview effect whether you're at 52 and
01:10:38
a half I'm guessing you'll get the same
01:10:39
effect at 58 or 60 or 61. and then you
01:10:43
come back to earth
01:10:44
um so I thought it was kind of a little
01:10:48
cheap and unnecessary because there's
01:10:50
not there's there's nothing experience
01:10:52
wise that changes right I mean like the
01:10:54
not my understanding yeah blue origin
01:10:57
did a tweet from the beginning new
01:10:58
Shepard was designed to Fly Above the
01:11:00
Carmen line so none of our astronauts
01:11:02
would have an asterisk next to their
01:11:03
name for 96 of the world's population
01:11:06
space begins 100 kilometers up in the
01:11:08
Internet it's just like why would they
01:11:11
do that the days before the Richard
01:11:13
Branson goes up it's just totally
01:11:15
classless it shows that Bezos has a
01:11:17
competitive shriek which is just not
01:11:20
graceful I would say
01:11:23
um and I think there's a little bit of
01:11:25
bitterness there and then you look at
01:11:26
Elon
01:11:27
what did Elon do he went he's so classy
01:11:30
he went and he took a picture with
01:11:32
branta and he went to support him and
01:11:35
wrote a congratulatory tweet Elon does
01:11:37
not feel he's in competition but for
01:11:39
some reason Bezos you know Bezos had to
01:11:42
like draft and approve this specific
01:11:45
tweet from Blue origin and I just
01:11:47
thought it was classless and just stupid
01:11:49
Jeff really made you look so bad Elon
01:11:52
Elon was so fabulous I mean it just
01:11:54
shows you like what a Class Act he is
01:11:55
and what he cares about which is like he
01:11:58
cares about advancing
01:12:01
um humans and our ability to do things
01:12:04
that are incredible and inspiring and
01:12:07
when other people do it he's not
01:12:08
zero-sum about it as you said Jason he
01:12:11
was there he was supportive
01:12:13
um it was just lovely to see I think
01:12:15
Bezos is still uh stung for when Elon
01:12:18
said he couldn't get it up meaning he
01:12:20
couldn't get his couldn't get his rocket
01:12:21
into space so so I don't know if that
01:12:23
was that was too classy of Elon
01:12:25
well it was funny
01:12:28
yeah well I don't know if you guys have
01:12:30
seen Jeff's rocket
01:12:33
kind of small
01:12:35
this rocket is I mean it's Jason now
01:12:38
you're doing it it's got a tiny rocket
01:12:40
just so we uh put a pin in it Melvin
01:12:43
Capital the people uh who uh went to war
01:12:46
with the Reddit Traders or vice versa
01:12:48
lost five billion dollars couldn't
01:12:51
happen to a nicer group of people I mean
01:12:53
they're down
01:12:55
which is just
01:12:56
singing and of itself in this kind of up
01:12:58
Market but then to actually quantify it
01:13:00
they lost five
01:13:02
billion dollars fighting a bunch of
01:13:05
self-proclaimed ours I wouldn't say the
01:13:08
words I don't get canceled but they call
01:13:10
themselves ours on
01:13:16
Jason you can say it there you're not
01:13:19
calling them that they call themselves
01:13:21
that they call themselves that yes all
01:13:24
right listen love you besties uh sax
01:13:26
we're glad that you're safe and you're
01:13:28
uh healthy no thanks to you
01:13:30
I didn't put any jokes in there I have
01:13:33
so many jokes I'm gonna save them I mean
01:13:36
honestly my thought on your recovery is
01:13:38
no comment
01:13:40
I'm just jealous you're gonna lose
01:13:42
another five freaking pounds because oh
01:13:44
yeah I'm down to 178 by the way come on
01:13:46
stop are you really yeah manorexic I
01:13:49
can't even break one when uh when are
01:13:51
you gonna stop was there a bet or no no
01:13:53
bad I would probably lose that bad
01:13:54
that'd be like me playing Saxon chess
01:13:57
it's just not uh Jason what are you
01:13:59
tipping the scales at right now 190 one
01:14:01
190 and you're about to come to Italy
01:14:03
and basically you're gonna gain 15
01:14:05
pounds for sure no I'm doing one meal a
01:14:08
day one meal a day that's it one meal a
01:14:11
day that's it
01:14:12
I'm eating one meal a day how am I gonna
01:14:15
turn down the food but what if you eat
01:14:17
for three hours in that one meal I just
01:14:18
I try everything I'll just try and then
01:14:20
I have discipline now just like I
01:14:22
stopped using Twitter I'm stopping
01:14:23
Twitter can I tell one funny story about
01:14:25
Jake Owen Italy talking about discipline
01:14:27
okay so we were there in Italy when was
01:14:30
this Jake out a few years ago whatever
01:14:31
this is a long time ago is this when we
01:14:33
were in Venice yeah you were with Jade
01:14:35
and I was with with Jack that was a
01:14:37
great story and we went to some ice
01:14:39
cream place right and so we all had we
01:14:41
all had these like ice cream gelato with
01:14:44
like two scoops or whatever on there so
01:14:46
Jason finishes his in like five seconds
01:14:49
it would like just disappear and then he
01:14:52
walks up to Jacqueline and just like
01:14:54
goes like like that and and then one
01:14:57
Fell Swoop he ate the the ice cream it
01:15:03
was like it was like a bulldog it was
01:15:04
like a it was like a bulldog just eating
01:15:07
your ice cream but how good was that
01:15:09
fish that we got remember that
01:15:10
restaurant I found yeah
01:15:12
Rod I mean we still talk about that
01:15:14
place yeah that was like one of the best
01:15:16
meals I've ever had I've been having a
01:15:17
gelato guys every day every day but
01:15:20
they're so small that's what I love
01:15:21
about this about the Italians it's a
01:15:23
little
01:15:24
it doesn't feel like there's like a lot
01:15:26
of preservatives and stuff in there no
01:15:27
it's just like butter and sugar heavy
01:15:30
cream whatever it is it's so good it's
01:15:32
so good it's so good how the tomatoes
01:15:34
right now I can't wait to be incredible
01:15:36
incredible I mean I eat them I bathe in
01:15:39
them I rub them on my face what about
01:15:41
the mutts you got the moots how's the
01:15:42
burrata and the Moots
01:15:44
he's gonna gained 15 pounds
01:15:56
you're going to turn down this food I
01:15:57
don't know how you're going to say no to
01:15:58
the pasta you'll have Pasta lunch pasta
01:16:00
dinner you're just gonna you're gonna go
01:16:01
crazy I'm gonna just have two bites of
01:16:04
everything two bites of six different
01:16:06
pastas and by the way by the way the the
01:16:09
the the the the biggest the best kept
01:16:12
secret is the Italian the quality of
01:16:15
Italian white wine is outrageous really
01:16:18
it's outrageous we should play some
01:16:21
cards and drink some wine
01:16:23
I think we're going to play no how many
01:16:26
how many calories are in the white wine
01:16:27
shramas
01:16:28
calories I I mean I have no idea but you
01:16:31
know look the thing in the summertime
01:16:33
here is you end up walking so I end up
01:16:34
walking a lot or bicycling a little bit
01:16:37
blah blah blah at the end of the day
01:16:38
like you're burning through everything I
01:16:40
gotta say this e-bike I got I got a rad
01:16:42
power bike no no no the whole point is
01:16:44
to not have a motor that powers it you
01:16:46
[ __ ] lazy back no no what you don't
01:16:48
understand is because you have the motor
01:16:50
in it your mouth you ride your bike
01:16:51
normal but then like let's say you do
01:16:53
have dinner or something like that or
01:16:54
you want to go to dinner 10 miles away
01:16:56
or 50 miles away you might not take your
01:16:58
bike it's too long of a ride with these
01:17:00
electric bikes instead of going 10 miles
01:17:01
on the way there it takes your 10 Mile
01:17:04
ride and just puts you at 25 but you're
01:17:05
still burning the same number of
01:17:06
calories it's like augmenting
01:17:09
I really think that electric bikes are
01:17:11
going to change cities like in a major
01:17:13
way they're already starting to in
01:17:14
Europe and in China but all right
01:17:16
everybody we'll see you next time on the
01:17:17
all-in podcast love you sex
01:17:19
back at you sucks I hope I hope you get
01:17:22
better
01:17:23
feel better thank you
01:17:24
thanks guys yeah I'm better I'm ready
01:17:27
better don't worry about it and wait
01:17:28
Freeburg you have nothing to say
01:17:29
computer
01:17:33
it was nice to check off the box for my
01:17:36
social interactions for the week I will
01:17:38
now go back down 75 minutes of social
01:17:40
interaction powering down in three two
01:17:44
one Mama we'll see you next time
01:17:49
let your winners ride
01:17:52
Rain Man Davis
01:17:56
and
01:17:58
they've just gone crazy with it
01:18:03
[Music]
01:18:05
besties
01:18:12
[Music]
01:18:23
it's like this like sexual tension that
01:18:25
they just need to release
01:18:26
[Music]
01:18:28
is
01:18:38
[Music]
