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this week we're going to play our favorite new game show guess who's got covid yes that's right somebody on the
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Pod somebody's got coded it's not the Me Oh No you're ruining the game oh sorry so here's the game
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person who got covered have they been vaccinated or not okay all four of us have been vaccinated we covered that on
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our previous spot so everybody's vaccinated double vacs did we all get Pfizer I was Pfizer
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Pfizer Pfizer Pfizer okay so Pfizer across the board we got quads and this is a breakthrough infection has
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anybody taking a z-pack after a night of party [Laughter] lasted 39 episodes that was good that
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was good okay so number one clue number one this best a breakthrough infection Outdoors
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at a restaurant number one got it Outdoors number two got it from somebody who was also vaccinated number three
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this bestie does not fly commercial and he's not a fan of being interrupted and he is not an Evangelical David the
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Breakthrough vaccination David sacks I'm glad that uh am I getting a breakthrough case of covet is uh is
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comedy fodder for you somehow we'll let your winner slide [Music] [Music] foreign
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what happened and then how you felt yeah okay so what happened and we're glad you're safe obviously obviously we
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wouldn't be joking you're still losing weight you lost five pounds so yeah yeah so you may want to read some of the
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beautiful text messages we sent you when we found out this week yes Jason what would you say Jason you said
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it uh I was just like wow big about who we could recruit for the fourth spot Keith or a boy we get Peter teal in here
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I said that I really really hope you didn't die but if you did I would love to have your plane as a support plane
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for my plane I was thinking you know what I might be pro-san Francisco if you die I could I might want all right well
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sorry guys I'm gonna live sorry Jason I'm gonna live here's basically what happened okay is
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um so Tuesday of last week I had dinner with a few friends and then my friend just we're out outdoors in a restaurant
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yeah I'll tell you exactly where we were at matsahisa in La which happened in the
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outdoor parking lot yeah yes the outdoor parking lot area which is a covered outdoor area so you know these like
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covered areas are effectively inside because it traps the air in there but at any event we had dinner there
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um the next day he woke up with a fever and sore throat he went and got a covet test he tested positive he is also
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double vaxed with Pfizer okay so and and I reported this to you guys last week on
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last week's show so I went out right away on Wednesday got a covet test was negative I repeated the test on Friday
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was negative and then Sunday rolls around and I wake up and I got a fever I don't really have a sore throat but
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I've got kind of a I'd say an occasional dry cough and I've got and I've got some
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sinus congestion David mild fever or like like 99.9 or like 102.1 it topped off at about 99.9 it's apparently a
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fever yeah really fever but I mean it was definitely there and I took Tylenol and it brought it down to the low 99s
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and uh so any event first thing Monday morning I went and got the covet test and sure enough I had covid uh they
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can't confirm that it's Delta variant but they think it is because that's what's like exploding in LA right now
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and so yeah I mean look I mean the good news is it's very mild I mean I'm it's now Thursday and I feel like I'm like 99
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recovered I don't have a fever anymore are you 10 days in now this no no no no this is the you know I came down with
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symptoms on this past Sunday and it's now Thursday so I am and when were you exposed Tuesday night so I was but yes
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you're right it's about 10 days you're convinced that was the only way you could have gotten it right yeah
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because somebody else at the dinner got has symptoms now too ah so it's a super spreader at matsuhisa
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yeah yeah basically but it shows you how virulent this new Delta variant is I mean you've got there are four people
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out that night plus the person who who had it and two out of the four basically got it and we were all vaccinated
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including the person who had it and of course he didn't know he had it he didn't have any symptoms till the next
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day so um and you know I got it I got it five days after exposure it's that five days
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is like clockwork you know did you um did you have like a pulse ox did you measure any of these other things did
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any of that stuff change at all yeah I mean I've have the pulse ox meter and it's been around 95 so it is Dallas yeah
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you should be like 98 right yeah it is down slightly it is down slightly and if you go to 92 or 93 they say go to the
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emergency room I think and and did you self-isolate from your family yeah I did but we were lulled a little bit into a a
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place of overconsciousness yeah well I remember I got I got kova test on Wednesday and then Friday and they're
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both negative I thought we were through it so I was at home and um and then and then so my 11 year old
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got it even though I was isolating this thing is I mean this thing is so contagious so
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you know what I've read is that Delta variant is 60 more transmissible than the UK variant which was the alpha
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variant the alpha variant was 60 more transmissible than original covid so you're looking at a transmissibility you
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multiply those together of two and a half times the original and the original covid had an R naught of two to three so
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you multiply two to three by two and a half times and you're looking at five to eight and you know explain to the
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audience what that means in terms of reality it means the r naught is uh how many people does the average infected
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person transmit before they know they have it and can fully self-isolate and so you're going from the original Cove
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it was two to three Delta variant might be like eight we're getting up into like
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smallpox territory with this thing and it's all the more transmissible because um you know vaccinated people can get it
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you know the the Israel data that we talked about in the show last week was 64 Effectiveness that Israel reported
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that the effectiveness of Pfizer had gone from like 95 to 64 in terms of preventing infections so you have maybe
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a third of vaccinated people can get it and then they can spread it without even
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knowing they have it so I think we're at the point now where if you're not vaccinated you're gonna
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get you're going to get the Delta variant we're seeing now cases explode you know all over the country even in LA
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county they've now had a um the five-day average of cases has jumped 500 in one month so pretty and Jason you've tweeted
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this if you are not vaccinated you are choosing to get the Delta variant at this point I mean this thing is
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extremely transmissible that's what uh there was a great tweet by Scott Adams the guy who the cartoonist who I
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wouldn't who listens to the Pod by the way who does this into the pot uh he had a he had a really great quote he's like
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um uh today is either Wednesday yeah for uh those that are vaccinated or uh yet another day where the unvaccinated
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amongst you are likely to get uh coveted something like that right was that the two yeah basically today's Wednesday for
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people who are vaccinated or it is the day you're gonna get you know the the virus yeah we gotta stop stop messing
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around with this thing now here's some here's some good news actually is um and so on on the the Wednesday when we found
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out that my friend had tested positive but again I was still negative I had no symptoms I had nothing
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um I told my wife she had gotten one shot she hadn't gotten the second shot and we were on the fence about whether
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my 13 year old should get the vaccine they both raced out that day got vaccinated we did not get the virus so
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they had basically call it three or four days of the of the vaccine to trigger an
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immune response in their system and it protected them they did not get sick sir and and David did you take anything else
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like prednisone you took nothing no steroids nothing nothing the only stuff I so my friend did take uh he did get
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prescribed prednisone my doctor thought that was unnecessary or a bad idea for me all I took okay was Tylenol to
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control the fever and I took Flonase to reduce the sinus congestion look I mean I don't want to overstate this it was a
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very mild cold for me and that is why I think everybody should run out and get vaccinated what did you pair it with
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like a Pappy Van Winkle or did you go with a screaming eagle has such a [ __ ] wine list you probably
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drank this like random swirl that's why you were drinking some like uh nigiri sake in all likelihood Freeburg last
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week I was uh asking you or maybe it was two weeks ago I was considering getting
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the moderna because I was like I think getting two of these things will boost you into the high 90s you said I was
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crazy uh has your position changed on that yes okay explain because this is the one time I'm ever
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gonna be right about science a week before you so I I think that I think the data up to that point didn't
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necessarily um kind of validate that additional level of action but now it does and I
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think new data is coming out so I saw uh an executive from a pharmaceutical company a few days ago okay
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who broke down some statistics that they looked at in Israel and what they were identifying was that of the newly
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infected cases in Israel of people that are vaccinated uh nearly two-thirds of those people
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were vaccinated in January about 30 percent were vaccinated in February and less than 10 percent were
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vaccinated in March and I'm just approximating and I'm and I'm I'm just kind of transcribing you know uh from
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kind of what I remember him saying and so he said you know the more recent vaccinations we're not seeing
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breakthrough cases breakthrough infections so the the more recently you're vaccinated
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um the the less likely you are to have this and then I I met with a a pretty well-known virologist a few days ago as
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well who highlighted for me that we are seeing antibody titers decline over time
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in people but there's other studies that are showing which means that the antibodies against covid in your blood
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after you get the vaccine slowly go down over time so we're seeing that we knew that right we knew that to some extent
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but there was another study that showed that memory B cells B cells are the immune cells that make antibodies and
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they remember the antibodies to make and they were worried are we losing those B
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cells in the human body and another study found actually they're in your lymph nodes so they they went in they
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pulled them out and they identified look that these B cells are persistent we are
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having a persistent immune memory to covid when we get exposed to the vaccine or the virus
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and um and so you know those two data points both of them kind of said I think we're going to need to do a booster very
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soon for everyone and we're going to need to get a third shot if the tail Freeburg seems like it's like six months
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yeah it sounds like he was saying that you're going to see an efficacy drop to that kind of two-thirds level after
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about six months of your after getting your your vaccine and you know he said look this Delta
00:12:02
variant is virulent but you know the more pressing kind of point isn't that it's this variant that's breaking
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through it's that the efficiency of these vaccines at this point looks like it's such that we're gonna need to do
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boosters now Pfizer went to the White House this week with some of this data and they presented it to the White House
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and the White House said uh if you guys follow the news I I I'm hearing this I'm
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I'm repeating what I read in news reports at this point but what they said was uh you know we're
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not ready to kind of commit to doing booster shots for a couple of reasons one is there are
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a lot of people out there that haven't had their first shots um and uh we're seeing the people that
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are having these breakthrough infections almost universally not always but very very large majority having very mild
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symptoms and not getting hospitalized and the death rate is still very very low in other words the vaccine did its
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job the vaccine didn't didn't prevent you know an infection meaning that the virus starts replicating in in a way
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that's uncontrolled in your body but that your immune system had enough of a defense to keep it from causing severe
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disease in your body 99 of the people going to the hospital are unvaccinated right exactly and so
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we're seeing that that great success still with the vaccine but they are seeing and there are now studies that
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you know I think referenced to your earlier point that you know if you put a different RNA strain
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um RNA sequence into your body which moderna and Pfizer have slightly different you know sequences you end up
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creating different antibodies and having more diversity of antibodies uh can kind
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of provide greater immunity so it's almost certain we're going to get boosters and that we're going to end up
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seeing them hit the market next month yeah is the is the booster different than the original so for
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example if I get a Pfizer booster and am I only basically getting still an expression of that RNA strand that I'm
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supposed to basically like is it the same formulation the same dosage so so both of those options are still up in
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the air and so we may still get the same vaccines that we were getting before you
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could go get a modernist shot you could go get another Pfizer shot of the exact same RNA sequence that you got before or
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they may introduce some new ones and so all the Pharma companies are proposing both approaches and they're pursuing
00:14:22
both pads right now and we'll see where we end up and what about swapping between an RNA approach and a
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traditional vaccine approach so getting J and J plus moderna or Pfizer versus like there's a lot of a b testing we
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need to do to figure out what is the most efficacious this is exactly like the this is reminds me exactly of HIV
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where it took 10 years for them to figure out what cocktail actually worked the best and now look HIV is I mean it's
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it's it's kind of level yeah nothing it's really not that not that bad the way that we probably for those of us in
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our 40s have it emblazoned in our mind is how bad it is versus how bad it is it was a death sentence it seemed like a
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death sentence and today it's kind of more it's more manageable than frankly it's a chronic disease now that's
00:15:02
manifest yeah it's like having diabetes or something yeah I have another crazy statement here which is that if you take
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the the case fatality rate of covid and um now you think about the fact that there's going to be call it 60 of
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America that's vaccinated and then every six months we'll be getting boosters and
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then you have the petri dish on the other side of the 40 where you'll just be ripping through variant after variant
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after variant eventually it stands to reason that if 40 of Americans remain unvaccinated two or three years from now
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the odds that there will be a strain that is the killer strain that does meaningful damage to those people I
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think is basically a hundred percent and if you think about a case fatality rate that's meaningfully high what
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you're effectively going to do is start to call these people from the earth and that is a crazy idea but that's what
00:16:00
folks who choose to not get vaccinated are setting themselves up I mean it's the quintessential you know uh is that
00:16:06
just about probabilities like am I getting something wrong here probabilistically isn't that that's what
00:16:10
I'm concerned about and it's not just Americans not getting vaccinated it's the rest of the world I mean even if we
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got to externally extraordinarily High vaccination rates in the U.S there's going to be large you know numbers of
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people outside the US who never get vaccinated will continue to be a petri dish uh to give you to you know
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comparison the common cold has 1800 variants that's why we can't get vaccinated so you know we're on the
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Delta variant right now I think they actually have numbered variants up to Lambda we're going to run out of the
00:16:39
letters of the alphabet really soon you know how long will it be until there is there are these killer variants that
00:16:45
that I mean look I mean that could punch through that can punch through the the vaccines it's pretty scary actually and
00:16:52
I would say that um this is like quite a come down off where we were just two weeks ago you
00:16:58
know where we thought the Pfizer vaccine was still 95 effective now at 64 effective I mean look I I do want to
00:17:05
like underscore that the the vaccine worked in the sense that what I got was super mild I mean it was really just
00:17:11
like getting a cold I mean I didn't need to take anything more serious than Tylenol but uh but it does show that the
00:17:18
virus is mutating really fast it's highly transmissible and uh I'm not sure you still have it you still have it
00:17:26
right I still have it yeah yeah so when will you get tested to figure out when you don't have it anymore I'll probably
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go in tomorrow you know because it feels it feels to me like I'm about 98 better
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freebrook is there is there any data um about the pattern of people who are vaccinated getting this thing like is
00:17:43
there remember how like you know there was early data that showed you know women had a different immune response
00:17:49
than men and like people who were what was it O positive or you know a certain blood type effectively had inborn
00:17:55
immunity I haven't heard her read anything like that um and so this is still an emerging
00:18:01
issue I think um you know by the way I was vaccinated a few months ago guys like I mean I'm
00:18:07
like saying you're three years right when was your second shot basically like a few months ago yeah
00:18:14
it's uh mine was in March yeah one thing I think it's worth highlighting just to
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reinforce the vaccine importance um you know the virologist the Infectious Disease guy I met with was
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telling me that um you know one way to think about this is the more opportunity the virus has to
00:18:30
replicate the more opportunity it has to evolve and so when you're vaccinated and
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you have a mild case and your body recovers in a few days um just to give you guys a sense the
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difference when someone that's not vaccinated has coveted and they've measured the viral load in the nodes
00:18:47
from day one when they start having their infectious kind of presentation to day four which is when they Peak the
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viral load is 10 to the eighth higher okay that's like a hundred million times higher
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and so that's a hundred million times more viruses that are being produced on day four than were being produced on day
00:19:04
one when you were already showing symptoms so every time a virus is being produced and is replicating within your
00:19:10
body uh it's getting a chance to mutate the important point he emphasized was what matters most is we get the most
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number of people on planet Earth vaccinated as fast as possible because the faster you can get more people
00:19:22
vaccinated the fewer opportunities you give the virus to replicate and find itself a mutational path that can
00:19:27
ultimately break through all these vaccines and and cause real severe loss of life
00:19:33
um and so the you know the presentation that sax kind of described is encouraging in the sense that it likely
00:19:39
means that the virus did not create that there wasn't that much of a viral load or a huge viral load relative to what
00:19:44
there would have been if he wasn't vaccinated um and so even though he did have an
00:19:49
infection um you know the virus didn't get as much of a chance to spread to other people it
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didn't get but it did but it did because my friend who I got it from after one having dinner one night he was double
00:20:00
vax with Pfizer and it might you know my 11 year old daughter got it yeah it's for her again it's just like a cold yeah
00:20:08
but um so this thing is highly transmissible and what is it it changes it changes the equation I think on some
00:20:16
policy questions so yeah that's what I was going to ask you what does it mean for the fall what now what
00:20:21
so two weeks ago I thought that because I was vaccinated I didn't need to care whether other people were vaccinated
00:20:28
because the you know up until that point the data was you were 95 plus you know Effectiveness so why care if other
00:20:36
people get vaccinated now we can say for sure that that unvaccinated people can or vaccinated people even can get other
00:20:44
people can get you sick even if you are vaccinated so I think it absolutely changes the equation on so for example
00:20:51
colleges were acquiring students to get vaccinated to return in the fall like before I didn't think that necessarily
00:20:58
made a lot of sense because if you wanted to protect yourself you just get vaccinated but now it makes sense right
00:21:03
because the college needs to get to herd immunity to protect everybody against you know potentially right Delta variant
00:21:10
right so I do think it changes the equation quite a bit and I think we need to make a big push here to get everyone
00:21:17
back are you then in fact sex for vax passport ports which as a you know uh libertarian I think is I think part of
00:21:27
your political I think everybody on this call has kind of got a little libertarian like you got to make your
00:21:31
own choices here but does it change your thinking about that I.E employers uh colleges
00:21:38
uh city-state workers teachers are either get vacs or don't come back to the office and you're fired
00:21:45
well I'll tell you I I don't like the idea of government uh having the power to to stick a needle in your arm but I
00:21:53
do think that employers workplaces schools I think it's very reasonable for them to say if you want to come back to
00:22:00
the workplace you have to get vaccinated because your unvaccinated status creates
00:22:05
a risk it creates an externality for everybody to be able to fire you if you're a teacher should they be able to
00:22:09
fire you if you are a bus driver if you're a pilot yes okay here's the craziness this is a a
00:22:17
self-inflicted wound we are down to only 700 000 vaccines being given a day we peaked we had the ability to do five
00:22:25
million shots a day at the peak back in April we hit over 5 million shots in one
00:22:30
day in the United States and that's a country where you know whatever 270 million adults you know were able to get
00:22:36
it in other words two percent of the pop adult population in a single day could have gotten it now we're down to 700 we
00:22:42
have over a billion vaccines sitting on shelves eighty percent of Democrats have
00:22:45
received one shot compared to 49 percent of Republicans 27 percent of Republicans
00:22:51
say that they won't get vaccinated under any circumstances compared to three percent of Democrats answering that
00:22:57
question the same way and an additional nine percent will only do so if required
00:23:01
again three percent of Democrats said they would only do so required so that's 36 percent are opting out forever I get
00:23:07
it but it's because we allowed it to become a position meaning it's not it's not like anybody has a position on
00:23:14
breathing breathing is not a political position right it's not like I choose to not breathe or drinking water or trying
00:23:21
to you know like these like eating three meals a day if you can uh we have allowed the most basic of issues in this
00:23:29
case you know Collective Public Health to be politicized in a way and that is entirely the government's fault
00:23:35
it's the government's fault and it's the media media and the media because the media's exacerbated it so that they can
00:23:41
have power people on the conservative side of the spectrum have learned to distrust the media and big corporations
00:23:47
because and government because they've been lied to so often most recently yeah right most recently with like the lab
00:23:53
League Theory and so you know there's this suspicion on the right like what aren't they telling us you know
00:23:59
um now look I think we got to get over this I think you know we need to get everyone vaccinated for all the reasons
00:24:04
that free Brook said or look everyone's going to get Delta variant I mean maybe this is the good news is that we can
00:24:10
rapidly get to herd immunity by everyone getting Delta variant well that's the inevitable outcome for any infectious
00:24:15
disease right a highly infectious disease is either you can vaccinate or everyone's going to get it uh and it's
00:24:20
gonna you know I mean you've got a Delta variant maybe than whatever the you know
00:24:24
whatever the more dangerous deadly one is yeah let me just highlight what I'm most concerned about I I am most
00:24:29
concerned about what's what's happening with sax it's just anecdotally speaking I'm not going to speak to the I'll speak
00:24:34
to one statistic but like anecdotally speaking I'm hearing this happening more more frequently I don't know about you
00:24:39
guys other friends other people you know but a lot of other people I'm hearing about their double facts that are now
00:24:45
getting covered so as that starts to happen uh the implications for the economy I think are
00:24:52
pretty significant um because I think people whether there's a policy change or not people
00:24:58
are going to get scared again and people if we're not kind of enforcing economic
00:25:02
lockdown people will go into social lockdown and we're going to revisit uh you know more of the behavior we saw
00:25:08
over the past year where people are going to be nervous to travel uh people are going to be nervous to fly people
00:25:13
are going to be nervous to go to restaurants and you know the downstream consequences of everyone kind of locking
00:25:18
up again even if the government doesn't enforce lockups uh could be pretty catastrophically are you feeling that
00:25:25
way yourself Freeburg in other words am I going to lock myself up are you going to go to dinner are you going to go to
00:25:30
travel to Italy or to you know Japan or you know would you go to Disneyland with
00:25:35
your kids how is it affecting you your personal Behavior being a man of science uh so so my personal circumstances are a
00:25:42
little different right now uh not not to get into it um uh just with my uh you know my wife's pregnant and we're moving
00:25:49
houses and so we've got a bunch of reasons why we're not traveling and and exposing ourselves unnecessarily right
00:25:55
now um but uh I I would say that at this point uh you know if all other things being equal would I go to Disneyland
00:26:03
with my kids I would probably wait right now six to 12 weeks to see what happens
00:26:08
here if I'm feeling that way now I think a lot of people are going to be feeling
00:26:14
that way in in the next four weeks as they hear about more friends getting covered now you know the good news is
00:26:19
the hospitals and so so I am most concerned we were in a very very very very delicate economic recovery right
00:26:25
now and you know we have put out so much money to stimulate this economy everyone
00:26:30
is so walking on like the razor's Edge to keep things you know growing we were afraid of inflation lumber prices today
00:26:36
by the way are lower than they were when this whole kind of inflationary thing started and everyone was freaking out
00:26:41
about it so um you know lumber prices are lower than they were at the start of the year which is you know like a lot of
00:26:46
this kind of inflation risk has kind of come out of the equation already so the markets have taken that pricing out and
00:26:51
now we're going to be in a circumstance where people might cancel their travel people might cancel their their
00:26:55
restaurants people might stop going to the office again stop you know getting in the car etc etc so I am most
00:27:02
concerned about like the psychological effects of of what we're seeing what these breakthrough infections the
00:27:08
frequency of them now if you look at the Israel data Israel had zero deaths for two weeks they're now averaging about
00:27:14
one death a day and despite this you know huge increment they're getting about I think 500 breakthrough
00:27:19
infections a day right now so that is good statistical needs right statistically these breakthrough
00:27:25
infections are not fatal they're not causing hospitalizations they're they're you know if you kind of did the math
00:27:30
going back a year and said these are the actual statistics of covid people would
00:27:33
be like okay no big deal let's move on it's a it's a tough kind of uh virus but because of the circumstances where we we
00:27:40
are kind of under these these feelings that this is a fatal disease and could cause uh fatalities
00:27:47
um those statistics don't matter the fear is what matters and people are going to start to behave quite
00:27:51
differently I think in the next few weeks I have a slightly different point of view here but
00:27:55
um I think Freeburg you're you're I think you're right in some respects um but I don't think it's going to come
00:28:02
from people I don't think people uh I think people are exhausted and they want to go back to life as normal yeah and I
00:28:08
think this summer was a window into some amount of normalcy for a lot of us and I
00:28:14
don't think we really do want to go back um and so I think what's what's really going to happen is there's going to be
00:28:20
essentially some form of class Warfare and instead of Rich versus poor and left versus right it's sort of between people
00:28:29
who believe in science and then the you know ideologically dogmatic who refuse to get it and that's going to play
00:28:36
itself out economically I agree with you there's going to be meaningful forms of
00:28:40
economic discrimination against people who um are unnecessarily compounding risk
00:28:45
for the rest of us who want to deal with it ideally touch wood as a common cold like David said and move the [ __ ] on
00:28:53
and if we are prevented from doing so because economic policy and Health Care policy has to constantly get re-rated
00:29:00
for a cohort of people who could protect themselves and everybody else but chooses not to there is going to be a
00:29:07
real pushback on that the second thing that I think is going to happen is politicians proved that if
00:29:14
you give them a window to seize power they will do it and I think what's really going to
00:29:19
happen in the fall is if there's even a small modicum of risk which there will be as we just
00:29:26
talked about yeah it exists now yeah I think it's the politicians that are going to want to jump all over this and
00:29:31
say okay guys you know lockdowns here you can't do this you can't do that so literally just giving you some just at
00:29:36
the big grand reopening California's back you could see him locking it back up in September oh that's the best way
00:29:41
to it's the best way to Snuff out any chance of the recall going against them is that even if you were angry you're
00:29:46
not going to be allowed to basically it'll be a massive form of Voters oppression well I think that that too
00:29:52
that would backfire pretty bad you saw the flip-flopping that he already did actually on schools where the the
00:29:58
government of California basically said hey you know we're going to mandate a mask policy in the fall and then Newsome
00:30:05
came out because people freaked out and said uh actually no each local municipality can figure it out based on
00:30:11
you know what it what it means for them the point is guys um free Brook is right
00:30:17
these things aren't going away we have a cohort of people who will continue to allow this thing to become
00:30:23
worse than it has to be and I think that there will be economic repercussions and discrimination against
00:30:29
those people for that and I think economically we are going to take a step back because politicians will try to
00:30:37
slow the economy down again and there is definitely from the right not to get political here but they've been pretty
00:30:44
silent about encouraging people to get vaccinated and um you know at CPAC and other places people were cheering the
00:30:52
anti-vaxx movement Mitt Romney came out uh we don't control conservative media figures so far as I know at least I
00:30:58
don't that being said I think it's an enormous error for anyone to suggest that we shouldn't be taking vaccines
00:31:02
look the politicism politicization of vaccination is an outrage and frankly moronic Mitch McConnell came out and
00:31:10
says a polio victim myself when I was young I've studied that disease I took 70 years 70 years to come up with two
00:31:15
vaccines that finally ended the polio threat as a result of operation warp speed we have not one not two but three
00:31:22
highly effective vaccines so I'm perplexed by the difficulty we're having finishing the job this is where you can
00:31:27
expect the politically correct companies to act first because they're the woke mob will force some action on this issue
00:31:36
whether you like it or not but this is this is where the next petition will come from Apple where the two or three
00:31:41
thousand employees who are vaccinated Etc who have people with you know um people in their households with with
00:31:48
uh who are immunologically suppressed and they're going to say hey guys this is crazy well that that petition might
00:31:54
be the first application that would make sense because those employees are directly impacted by other employees who
00:31:59
come to the workplace unvaccinated unlike you know the issues around Israel or Antonio's book whatever that they
00:32:05
shouldn't have taken a position on wait a second you're saying Antonio's book wouldn't make them feel safe and getting
00:32:09
coveted would make them unsafe yeah actually actually yes yes yes in the workplace is a real safety issue
00:32:18
uh not you know not whether somebody wrote a book five years ago so so I think they do I think employees do have
00:32:24
a right to say to their employers listen are we going to be a vaccinated workplace or not because it does impact
00:32:29
their risk but but Jason's your question about should people change their behavior in
00:32:35
light of this news Okay in light of the fact that we now are learning about some
00:32:40
reduce effectiveness of the vaccines here's what I would tell people sitting where I am this is not a big deal I mean
00:32:46
for me okay it was not a big deal it was like a mild cold I am not gonna change my I'm gonna go back to normal like my
00:32:53
pre-covered behavior uh and I would tell you like if you're double vax I don't think you need to be that afraid of this
00:33:00
because you know my doctor said they are seeing a bunch of these breakthrough cases but they're all very mild it
00:33:05
really is like getting a cold I'm not changing my behaviors I made my I made my decision my risk assessment is if I
00:33:10
get it um then I'm doubly protected uh and I'm not going to wind up in the hospital I'm
00:33:16
going to focus all my energy on riding my bike and and taking my kids out and having a good time I'm not going back in
00:33:20
lockdown so I think that's right for you but but here here's where it gets a little bit complicated is my parents who
00:33:25
are in their 70s and one of them has an immune condition that's what they should
00:33:28
do and I said listen if I were you guys I would not be going to public places I'd be masking up they're asking me if
00:33:35
they should go on a trip and I said no I would actually if I were you I would lock down until this blows over because
00:33:41
they're at elevated risk and so yeah for me getting covid was like a mild case but for them maybe it could be more
00:33:48
serious so all it takes is 10 of the population acting like what you just described you recommended to your
00:33:54
parents sex for there to be economic ripples associated with this um uh this this breakthrough kind of condition for
00:34:01
a while and that's where I have the most concern is again like you know we're kind of you're not concerned about the
00:34:06
deaths Freebird you're concerned about the economic impact and the psychological scars that are now in
00:34:11
place I will explain I I sent you guys a link to the Reuters article where they covered the press conference with the
00:34:16
prime minister of Israel the other day and um basically they are taking what they're calling a soft suppression
00:34:22
strategy um where they're encouraging Israelis to learn to live with the virus involving
00:34:28
the fewest possible restrictions and avoiding a fourth National lockdown that could do further harm to the economy and
00:34:34
he said implementing the strategy will entail taking certain risks but in the overall consideration including economic
00:34:41
factors this is the necessary balance and so it's a it's a it's a very kind of pointed position that they're coming to
00:34:49
I think the U.S government the federal government's going to have to come to the same one but we have different
00:34:54
states and different local governments that are going to act differently and because we've you know we have authority
00:34:59
um vested in those different jurisdictions you could see different public policy officials take different
00:35:06
positions and what we're talking about if San Francisco said restaurants have to go back to 25 capacity it would
00:35:12
decimate these already struggling small businesses and there's no more stimulus dollars available and so you kind of
00:35:17
think about this or 10 of people cancel their vacation plans what's that going to do to Airlines and hotels so again my
00:35:24
concern is are we about to hit a wave of economic ripples that aren't necessarily
00:35:29
tied to what is the right thing to do from a policy perspective or a science or health perspective but really the
00:35:35
psychological effects of the scared and concerned saying you know what there's more money available that you know we
00:35:41
got bailed out before we'll get bailed out again let's Implement a shutdown let's Implement a lockdown let's not go
00:35:46
to work it's whatever the the decision tree you may have as a business owner or policy maker well there's an important
00:35:52
Point here which is listen kovitz can be with us for a long time we're going to need to make really smart cost benefit
00:35:58
analysis decisions in how to deal with it we can't go back to lockdowns because they didn't work and they're extremely
00:36:04
expensive we spent 10 trillion dollars battling covid last year we cannot do that again we don't have the the bullets
00:36:12
and are going to keep firing at this thing like that we got to start making Intelligent Decisions zeroism is not
00:36:17
going to work this idea that the premise of zeroism is that we can stamp out every last message of covet that maybe
00:36:24
that was even a possibility when vaccines were 99 effective but now that they're not there's no chance of
00:36:30
stamping out covet so we have got to learn we've got to like the Israel example we've got to learn to live with
00:36:37
this thing and make smart cost benefit decisions but I also think you know this is kind of a disaster for Humanity we
00:36:44
now have this new category of illness that's rapidly mutating we don't know what the end of it's going to be like I
00:36:51
said there's 1800 variants of the common you know what though David is causing the these symptoms by the way has anyone
00:36:55
noticed how many different symptoms this virus causes in people there's over 200
00:37:01
uh well they've worked on it for a long time David In fairness yes exactly everyone knows it's a lab engineered
00:37:07
virus that's now a plague on Humanity this is really a disaster this is gonna I think permanently impact human life
00:37:14
expectancy I mean this is this is a serious problem we could have avoided this entire thing here in the United
00:37:21
States at least if people just took the win how frustrating is this that we would
00:37:28
probably have cases down to a thousand a day and debts down to 10 a day like Israel if we had just gotten everybody
00:37:36
to take one of the billions of excess vaccines sitting on shelves and in CVS's and Walgreens across this country how
00:37:45
stupid are we we don't have the collectivism to to make those actions if you think about what's happening in
00:37:51
Israel did two different examples in China collectivism manifests as like basically
00:37:57
a top-down you know uh form of governance okay in in Israel collectivism comes from a need for state
00:38:06
level security right I mean I've traveled to Israel a lot I have worked there and it's crazy when you see how
00:38:12
people cooperate together the minute you hear the uh missile alarms right and so
00:38:18
there there is a way for people to do cost-benefit analyzes in Israel because it's a matter of life or death and
00:38:24
they've been trained to do that so either it's imposed on you like in China or people Bottoms Up can understand
00:38:30
these trade-offs like in Israel we are in a very different place where literally what we have are three things
00:38:37
that are in conflict with each other Jason we have politics and the desire for power
00:38:44
we have the deconstruction of Power by social media and then we have the traditional media trying to stay
00:38:51
relevant that's a toxic thing that's spinning around and spinning around and spinning around
00:38:58
trying to allocate this very ephemeral thing called power and influence and we don't know how it works anymore and so
00:39:04
we cannot get our [ __ ] together half the people care about vegan [ __ ] milk the
00:39:09
other half the people care I mean it's it's we are in a alternate universe as bad as we are Europe and even Japan have
00:39:16
done even worse because I mean we our our government was fairly efficient about the distribution of the vaccines
00:39:22
in Europe they've just completely botched it um same thing in Japan so we are not the
00:39:28
worst on vaccination rates yes it should be better but um well we are those people capturing the opportunity David
00:39:34
we have the opportunity America America is the most exceptional country in the world it has been for
00:39:42
hundreds of years it should be for several hundred more there is no excuse for this country to have [ __ ] this up
00:39:49
this badly I've spent enough time as as you guys have in Europe and in Japan it's understandable why those countries
00:39:56
are in the positions they're in it is not understandable by America's in the position so dumb it's like it's like
00:40:01
having a 20-point lead and you just with like eight minutes to go and you just screw up and you lose the game so stupid
00:40:09
all right do we want to move on to the billionaire Space Race yeah I think that's positive news this company go uh
00:40:15
what's it called Virgin Galactic there's a company called Virgin Galactic and they take people to space it's two
00:40:21
hundred thousand dollars stock seems to be doing pretty well um anybody have thoughts on Richard
00:40:27
Branson getting to space I don't know let's just randomly go to somebody no congratulations in all seriousness
00:40:34
congratulations I cried Nat and I start the SEC transcript public statement here
00:40:39
we go no Nat and I uh watched it together you cried and it was emotional uh and it's emotional because you know I mean
00:40:49
being a little bit more on the inside how hard they worked I mean we've all been there where we're all toiling in
00:40:56
obscurity where there are moments where everybody thinks that what you're doing either is crazy or isn't going to work
00:41:02
or is going to fail and there's a moment where you just have to push through it right and find people
00:41:08
that believe in you I think I came in very late to that but I had the opportunity to find these
00:41:16
incredible people believe in them help them give them Capital which was essentially oxygen right that's oxygen
00:41:21
for a company and then to see them achieve it it felt so special to be a part of it so yeah I
00:41:27
mean I was really emotional um and it was it was beautiful um so I don't know I think this is the
00:41:34
beginning of the beginning um I tweeted this out but basically if you think about
00:41:38
and there's other stuff that we can't talk about with some other companies that we are all involved in David and I
00:41:43
particularly but here's the point guys between sending people and making us an interplanetary species
00:41:52
by creating pervasive internet access and by enabling us to safely and reliably transport people either point
00:42:00
to point suborbitaly or basically into space we are completely reimagining how the
00:42:06
human race can work and I think that's incredible and to be a part of that is really special
00:42:13
there was a lot of people who got very negative on Twitter I noticed there was a lot of people that said you know no
00:42:20
like you know maybe now we can deal with I don't know child hunger or you know hey why are all these billionaires doing
00:42:25
this out of the other end I took a step back and I thought my gosh a people are increased there's a small
00:42:32
virulent cohort of people that are incredibly negative and B doesn't even know what they're talking about because
00:42:39
you're talking about issues of State responsibility and confusing it for what private citizens are doing to advance a
00:42:47
set of technologies that I think have broad appeal so those are my thoughts I mean I was I I watched every minute of
00:42:53
it and I thought it was incredible just to add to that um yeah I want to I want to take the part that all the naysayers
00:42:58
and the negativity I mean chamoth is right all the very online people immediately came out attacking this
00:43:06
extraordinary accomplishment an act of Bravery by Branson I mean this is a billionaire he doesn't need to be
00:43:11
risking his life launching himself into space I mean this is a courageous act you know he's putting his his um his
00:43:19
life where his mouth is and you had all these very online people but you had one
00:43:24
CNN commentator basically said this was bad for the environment you had uh another one saying that calling him a
00:43:30
tax sheet then there was another whiner who said what about all the starving children in the world I mean it just
00:43:37
went on and on like this and Mike Solana had a pretty funny tweet summing up the
00:43:43
sort of the left's um argument thusly he said number one this is their argument according to
00:43:50
Solana one money is evil two therefore people with money are evil three therefore things people with money care
00:43:56
about evil I mean that is basically the level of sophistication everybody's got the argument that's being made it's it's
00:44:03
that that's the argument that the left is Right everybody's a bond villain right but here here's the problem is
00:44:08
that first of all we do get tremendous benefits out of these innovators who are pushing the boundaries of Science and
00:44:16
Technology and Engineering um you know Branson actually went on Stephen Colbert show and defended it he
00:44:21
said he said listen uh I think they're not fully this is Branson he said I think they're not fully educated to what
00:44:27
space does for Earth is connecting the billions of people who are not connected uh down here he said every single
00:44:33
spaceship that we've sent putting satellites up there monitoring different things around the world like the
00:44:38
degradation of rainforests monitoring food distribution even monitoring things like climate change these things are
00:44:43
essential for us back on Earth so we need more spaceships going up to space not less so you know they're really just
00:44:50
kind of ignorant about the benefits of Technology and what do they want to do with the
00:44:55
money anyway you know we've got all the yes we do have all these problems on Earth but so many of our problems are
00:45:00
not a problem of underfunding we have tons of money going to the problem of homelessness in California it just keeps
00:45:06
getting worse because we have the wrong approach we have on education we have very the wrong ideas
00:45:12
organization we have the wrong execution fix the operating details it's not a money issue exactly take education in
00:45:20
California we have very high levels of per pupil spending and our test scores keep going down why because we have
00:45:26
unions controlling the schools there's no competition we're getting rid of testing we've eliminated day testing we
00:45:32
solved that problem we spent more as a percentage of GDP on Healthcare than any other Western country in the world yet
00:45:38
the life expectancy of white men which is basically the top of the Pyramid of healthcare is now sub 80 years old what
00:45:44
is going on all of these if all of these negative naysayers could actually just get into the arena and try to do
00:45:52
something right instead of watching whining instead of a professional Winer class they have no ideas they have no
00:45:59
ideas they have no executions they just have gripes and no ability to execute apparently yeah why don't they come up
00:46:06
with new programs actually Test new programs at a hyper local level to see what works okay can I tell you why
00:46:13
can I Can I Tell You Why these sort of like leftist whiners are not motivated to actually do the
00:46:22
hard work meaning even even if they have an idea for Education the precondition to
00:46:29
working on an education program or a healthcare program is they may need to spend four or five years in the bowels
00:46:34
in obscurity just learning pay ing their dues they don't want to do that either because they grew up in a culture of
00:46:40
kindergarten soccer everybody gets the gold star everybody gets to touch the ball everybody gets to be at the front
00:46:45
of the line and they're not willing to put in the work because the minute they realize how
00:46:50
much actual work is demanded of progress they run away because they're scared and
00:46:56
the reason they're scared is because somewhere along the way somebody tricked them
00:47:00
that it was not actually about trying it was actually about succeeding and that is the biggest failure that we could do
00:47:07
to people is all of a sudden tricking them to believe you have to have it to work so they'd rather be called monitors
00:47:13
critics failure is just as good because you're one step closer to succeeding somewhere
00:47:21
along the way Unfortunately they were not taught that incredible secret hiding in plain sight Friedberg what do you
00:47:26
think of the Space Race and the hall monitor Winer class if you guys look uh I was going to send these statistics
00:47:31
earlier but if you look at the amount of venture capital money that's gone into um uh into uh private space companies
00:47:40
space technology companies I think it was a few hundred million dollars call it three to four hundred million dollars
00:47:45
pretty consistently from 2011 through 2014 pretty flat and then in 2015 I think this is when
00:47:53
SpaceX started to kind of create a lot of momentum and hype that private companies can't actually build
00:47:57
businesses um in kind of call it the space industry the number jumped to 3 billion a year
00:48:03
and then it was a little over three and a half billion in 16 and then it jumped to almost 5 billion and 17 it was a
00:48:08
little bit down in 18. 2020 it's climbed to almost 10 billion and in q1 of this year I think we're at 2 billion
00:48:15
uh Venture Capital money going into private space companies so there's clearly um a great deal of momentum in this
00:48:22
industry the question is always what's the market at the end and so if you break out how do these companies make
00:48:29
money one is to provide services to governments you know launch services and then taking people to the space station
00:48:36
and what have you and SpaceX has obviously built a tremendous business in that there has been obviously a lot of
00:48:41
interest in tourism um and I think it's uh you know we're seeing this first breakthrough with um
00:48:47
with Virgin Galactic and we're going to find out over the next couple of years is there a tourism Market
00:48:53
historically there's been an interest in a market for a visual uh satellites but
00:49:00
you know if you look at some of the financials of companies like Planet labs they did a few Acquisitions in space
00:49:04
Imaging and the revenue hasn't really taken off there and then mining was always this other question is can we go
00:49:11
out and mine you know Rare Minerals from space and that one is just you know if you do the math on it it's so far away
00:49:17
it's impossible to kind of model so I think over the next and then finally it's Communications and
00:49:22
Communications are cheaper to run on Earth if you're in cities versus you know the the SpaceX model is to reach
00:49:27
rural areas that it's going to be more affordable to do this through space um and so you know there's um there's
00:49:34
obviously a ton of momentum and a ton of interest in uh in private companies getting to space everyone right now it
00:49:40
seems is trying to figure out what's the market right what's the how big is the market how big is the business and you
00:49:45
know how quickly can you actually see that Capital turn around into real Revenue
00:49:49
um so you know there's this kind of Market question that I think is still outstanding
00:49:54
in terms of you know the opportunity uh if you go back to like the 15th century I think something like 60 to 70 percent
00:50:03
of ships Maritime travel uh you know uh got into shipwrecks you know the uh and you know that's around when
00:50:12
um you know we sailed across the Atlantic or the Spanish sailed across the Atlantic are funded no or they or
00:50:16
they disappeared or they disappear I mean they basically crashed it didn't work it was a one-way trip sometimes to
00:50:22
the bottom of the ocean if you were sitting in Spain in 1450 and someone said hey these ships it's going to be a
00:50:30
great business we're going to build lots of ships and we're gonna go out maybe we'll get trade routes going maybe we'll
00:50:34
discover new land maybe we'll make money maybe we'll take people on trips on these ships you would be like this is
00:50:39
crazy half the people are dying there's no Market on the other side so you know we are and yeah you would have been
00:50:46
totally wrong yeah and you are in that 15th century moment right now with the space industry would anyone in the space
00:50:53
would anyone a ship business in the 15th century have been able to predict Carnival Cruise Lines or been able to
00:51:00
predict Evergreen ships taking stuff from China to America with these huge shipping crates would anyone have been
00:51:06
able to predict um you know uh going down to the bottom of the Atlantic I mean like all of the
00:51:13
technology and the entire industry that kind of came out of that um you know that that set of pioneering
00:51:19
activity in the 15th century transformed the planet transformed the economy uh transformed humanity and um you know
00:51:26
it's very it's very hard it's very hard to sit here today and say hey I know where space is go where the space
00:51:32
industry is going I know what's going to be possible but I can tell you that if history is any predictor of the future
00:51:38
um you know this pioneering work that's going on which is burning tons of money and and everyone's kind of questioning
00:51:43
whether there's businesses here it could transform our species once again so um yeah David your 15th uh Century
00:51:52
shipping example is so beautiful full three things that came out of that which I think we all value
00:51:58
One Insurance to tort law and Carrie exactly and three was basically how they did risk
00:52:08
management so that you know each ship would take a little piece of everybody else's cargo so that some of the cargo
00:52:13
would always get to Marketplace of the merge Lloyds of London marketing places yeah Lloyd to London emerged because of
00:52:18
the the maritime insurance that was required and the and almost all PNC Insurance can trace its roots back to
00:52:23
Maritime Insurance during that that era wow and so so these these ancillary industries that emerged were like
00:52:29
surprising right it's almost business models emerge because you had to figure out how you do the Arbitrage here and
00:52:34
carry is the perfect example people don't understand the Venture Capital Carry we get 20 of the profits was
00:52:40
designed so that people with ships the captain would get to say we get 20 of whatever makes it there now you're
00:52:45
aligned whatever makes it there you get 20 off okay I'm gonna I'm gonna go through that storm and I'm gonna try to
00:52:51
get it there and we don't there's so many unknowns but just looking at the one thing you know starlink
00:52:57
um I was doing a little research today about internet penetration we've got you know close to five billion people on the
00:53:02
internet now but a very small number of them are on broadband it's like 20 30 somewhere in that number it's hard it's
00:53:09
hard to get an exact number there but if you think about what's going to happen to humanity we're talking about
00:53:14
billions of people who did not have access to broadband and they are going to go
00:53:20
from not having you know if you think about what we went through in the west when the internet first came out and we
00:53:26
got our first Broadband connections you know to find us like DSL or whatever we had libraries we had books we had
00:53:31
colleges we had stores everywhere Barnes and Noble so the internet was unbelievably transformative but we were
00:53:39
in a modern society now you go to the developing world and they're going to go from you know not even having running
00:53:45
water in some cases in their homes or electricity or you know variable to having broadband and they're gonna have
00:53:51
access to YouTube Circa 2022 2023 they're gonna have access to you know MIT courseware or brilliant.org and all
00:54:01
of this information and shopping we're going to take a billion or two billion people and give them Broadband instantly
00:54:07
within a decade this is going to change the the face of the planet I think that that's the Revolution and
00:54:15
it's not just Starling doing it there's like three competitors to starlink obviously starlink's got the biggest
00:54:19
lead yeah before SpaceX doing this and and and and there were others there was a company called o3b it was uh stood for
00:54:26
other three billion and they had raised a ton of money to do this I just I I by the way I just want to speak to like a
00:54:31
trend that we've seen and and also speak to the the quality of elon's leadership
00:54:38
um so many companies have tried this Google talked about it for years well Project Loon was a follow-on to
00:54:46
what we talked about early on at Google which was putting up satellites and ultimately Google had a satellite
00:54:51
program that was killed in favor of buying a company called Skybox and Skybox was this Coastal adventurers back
00:54:58
startup that was trying to make a smaller scale startup and if you guys will remember around the early 2010s
00:55:05
um there were a bunch of startups that emerged that were all about building small scale
00:55:10
um uh satellites that could go up into low earth orbit and do things like Imaging and Communications and a bunch
00:55:15
of these companies were banking on the fact that the cost per kilogram to get your payload into space was declining
00:55:22
pretty precipitously so they were like let's make super cheap commodity you know space Imaging or space
00:55:27
communication boxes put them in space and after a couple of years they'll fall out of orbit and burn up but it doesn't
00:55:32
matter if we can get enough use out of them and they cost so little to put into space and they cost a little to make
00:55:37
let's put hundreds of them is a company called Planet Labs that that does this that's I think going public via SPAC now
00:55:43
they again they've been challenged with building the business and imaging but there was a Google bought a company for
00:55:47
I think half a billion dollars called Skybox trying to do this which it was like Imaging slash comms and they had a
00:55:53
bigger refrigerator size box that they were trying to put up ultimate ultimately Google's Google's found that
00:55:58
out to Planet labs and the whole thing kind of you know became Imaging but I I just want to highlight that this has
00:56:03
been a big trend for a while and it speaks to the quality of Elon on his leadership because the fact that this
00:56:09
guy did what 20 other 30 other people have tried companies have tried to do for the past decade or so and he said
00:56:15
you know what instead of just providing the uh the infrastructure to get all these devices into space we're just
00:56:20
going to build the actual devices get this thing up and just go crazy with it and put our Capital into it
00:56:25
um and it's really impressive to see because it's such a no-brainer and people have been talking about this this
00:56:29
opportunity for over a decade and these guys just have absolutely rushed the field and they could build an incredible
00:56:36
business uh out of this and you know the two most important companies in Satellite Communications are starlink
00:56:41
and swarm uh and swarm was a company that I seeded and sax did the series a and the if you talk to the founders of
00:56:48
that company you know they'll give you this use case in I think it was in 2014. do you guys remember there was a like a
00:56:55
Malaysian Airlines flight that just disappeared yeah disappeared 370. yeah Malaysian Airlines flight 370 and
00:57:02
it was like 230 240 people that passed away and the the most you know indelible question that I remember from this was
00:57:14
um we we couldn't track it and not to myself how is that even possible how do you how do you lose how do you lose a
00:57:20
flight in the middle of the Earth it's not possible it turns out it is because our internet coverage is so sad that it
00:57:26
only covers small areas and it it it made obvious that like you know we should live in a world where there is
00:57:34
absolutely pervasive internet access everywhere every single little shred inch of the world should be covered and
00:57:43
saturated that should never happen you know the people should be able to have closure they should be able to go and
00:57:49
get that plane recover the bodies give them proper funeral these are simple things but they're human things that we
00:57:54
should be doing as human beings right and just think about the iot internet access enables this and the idea that we
00:57:59
can't do that is shocking and so hey I agree with you fever we uh elon's incredible and I think that um within
00:58:06
the next five years we'll probably have pervasive internet access everywhere in the earth and that's that's
00:58:10
transformational you know the the second most valuable private company in space is
00:58:16
um also a company that you know uh uh I invested in led the series a called relativity space and their idea which I
00:58:24
think will help everybody that wants to go to Mars and other places is why don't
00:58:30
we just 3D print the Rockets and why don't we 3D print the engines and why don't we make that functionally
00:58:37
useful because it basically takes the cost of a rocket and divides it by 10. and these printers are small enough
00:58:44
where you know you can actually send them to and dismantle them and take them with you to Mars and set them up there
00:58:51
and all of a sudden you can print the parts that you need to get back to Earth as an example
00:58:56
um so I think that additive manufacturing has an enormous upside here in space um and I think that that's another area
00:59:05
that's going to be really really anybody read Andy Weir's Hail Mary yet the guy who did the Martian
00:59:11
he's a science fiction author it's really great because you don't actually know what you're going to find out there
00:59:15
I think that's one of the things that you know to to freeburg's point what do we find out there what if we find a
00:59:21
compound out there that like plutonium has some attributes that we could leverage in very small amounts to create
00:59:28
unlimited energy or unlimited prosperity in some ways there are there are things
00:59:33
that can exist that we have not been exposed to and of course the probability is there are many things that we have
00:59:38
yet to be exposed to 100 yeah look I don't subscribe to to uh to that thesis um I'll I'll tell you
00:59:47
um I'll tell you why and and this maybe also speaks a little bit to some of the counterpoints against
00:59:52
um the space industry getting the attention and resourcing it has relative to call it other places to allocate
00:59:58
capital and human resourcing um and that is like the tools that we have in science and engineering today as
01:00:04
a species uh continues uh to expand at kind of a geometric Pace our ability to convert any molecule into any other
01:00:14
molecule is basically fulfilled now it's a function at this point of how much energy and time it takes to do that work
01:00:22
so almost all industry the function of Industries to convert molecules from one form to another and we have tools
01:00:28
ranging from Hardware engineering mechanical engineering and more recently in the early 20th century chemical
01:00:34
engineering and in the 21st century biochemical engineering those tools are allowing us to invent discover and
01:00:41
convert molecules and even in some cases kind of Elemental forms that into nearly
01:00:49
anything else we want to produce and the technology is accelerating in such a way
01:00:53
the set of Technologies compound that if you think about 100 years from now 200 years from now 500 years from now the
01:00:59
human species theoretically for very minimal time and very minimal energy should be able to have something that
01:01:05
looks Akin today to the Star Trek replicator you basically type into a device what you'd like to make and it
01:01:10
makes it it for you in a few minutes and you could just like Mr Fusion and Back to the Future too you could put any
01:01:15
input you want into the thing you could throw in bananas and cans and whatever and out comes this thing you want to
01:01:20
make so as the human species evolve towards that capability and we don't need to get into the
01:01:26
details that's just like the general trend line it becomes less relevant that we need to go get other molecules or go
01:01:32
get other things from extra planetary sources the planet earth has you know on the order of 10 to the 23rd atoms
01:01:40
um you know two-thirds of the surface is water there's so much that is like unexplored and untapped from a resource
01:01:47
perspective within this this spaceship that we're already on that the argument would be made that our technology is
01:01:53
allowing us to effectively recreate all of our fantastic dreams right here where
01:01:57
we live today and you know first thing we're going to have to do is fix this planet and fix the ecosystems that that
01:02:03
are kind of at risk but as we progress and as these Technologies progress we can do these extraordinary things that
01:02:08
we don't necessarily need to rely on extra planetary travel and colonization in order to achieve those objectives so
01:02:14
so that that's that's the that's the optimistic counter argument yeah but we keep finding things like these molecules
01:02:21
and Titan's atmosphere Etc that we can't explain and we're finding those two telescopes let alone we get out there I
01:02:27
mean we might be able to create them sure yeah but we're going to discover them in other places we they may be
01:02:34
beyond our human comprehension that these things could even exist David there are interesting things we're
01:02:38
seeing there for sure and I think um you know there's a I think I mentioned this
01:02:42
book before uh it's so esoteric and difficult but uh it's called Uh every life is on fire by this guy named Jeremy
01:02:49
England and he highlights how all of evolution is effectively predicted by statistical physics and the energy bath
01:02:56
and the molecules within a system um create a structure of molecules that you wouldn't see except for that
01:03:05
condition meaning that over time the complexity of that system evolves to create an equilibrium with the energy uh
01:03:13
that it's uh that it's covered in so what we see on planet Earth he argues is organic molecules in what we call life
01:03:19
which are these molecules that are really good at copying themselves to absorb energy and dissipate energy so
01:03:25
the molecules and the energy state of you know Titan is different than what we see at Earth so the way the molecules
01:03:31
have evolved there are so different than what we've seen on Earth and you can see
01:03:34
these incredible concepts of what we we wouldn't call life today but really could be defined as life there and so
01:03:41
there's certainly a lot to learn and a lot to explore it doesn't mean that we're Limited in terms of our ability to
01:03:46
kind of realize those things here on planet Earth but uh you're absolutely right like exploration is the core of
01:03:51
being a human right and for people who don't know Titan is one of the it's the largest moon of Saturn and it's
01:03:58
got its own really weird dense atmosphere that's icy and slushy and we don't even we we can't
01:04:05
even comprehend half the stuff going on there yet would any of you guys take the
01:04:08
Richard Branson um uh trip would you do the uh you know like next week or or two year I guess at
01:04:15
what point would you be comfortable taking it two months I'm sure you've take you're you're sorry I can't answer
01:04:18
for sacks the answer is no 600 and 600 and something so how many flights more would you want to see you
01:04:25
would want to do 10 more flights 20 more flights no I feel I feel really confident that
01:04:30
we know what we're doing the this flight was so critical because it was about figuring out what it was like to have
01:04:35
passengers in the back and how they'd all behave when you had multiple folks and I think once that readout is done
01:04:41
and Richard apparently took a bunch of notes um so you know we'll uh we'll be starting
01:04:47
commercial Ops I think uh you know the next two or three quarters so wow yeah well I mean if if I had a 500 million
01:04:58
dollar super yacht like Jeff Bezos that's where I'd be hanging out I don't think I'd be blasting I would be
01:05:03
blasting myself into space but I mean look more power to him I mean they got you know they certainly uh he's doing
01:05:11
those yeah he's doing both yeah Jacob would you do it I you know I my my theory is with kids I kind of think
01:05:19
differently about it but if I was over 70 like Branson certainly I would do it yeah I would have to have that
01:05:25
conversation with my spouse and my kids and say you know hey this opportunity exists
01:05:31
they've done let's call it a hundred flights uh somewhere in that neighborhood I would I think I would
01:05:36
feel pretty comfortable doing it but I would want to check in with my my family and kids and see if we were all in sync
01:05:41
on taking that level I I stopped riding motorcycles as an example I think that flying in space tourism in the next year
01:05:48
or two will be a safer than riding a motorcycle and then eventually it'll be safer than you know driving a car or
01:05:55
something it's it's quite possible I was I was watching a space show with my daughter she's three years old on the
01:06:01
couch the other day and then she um she was like oh space it looks so fun and I'm like make you know I said do you
01:06:08
want to go to space and she said she looked back at me and she said I want to go to space with you and it made me cry
01:06:12
and it was the first time I'd ever thought like man first time you'd ever cried first time I ever cried yeah I
01:06:17
just uploaded that to his firmware yeah crying but I was like what are these water particles on my chin but I was
01:06:24
going down my head like no desire I would say before she said that to go to space but it was a um
01:06:30
poignant moment that like man this like moment of like inspiration of like going
01:06:35
to space is something that like I think is going to inspire um you know a generation and and I told
01:06:40
my daughter I said you know you are going to go to space uh I hope I could be there with you yeah yeah can I give
01:06:46
you an idea two different ideas but they're roughly related when each of your kids turn 18
01:06:53
um buy them a ticket to space so that they become an astronaut which I think is like a beautiful kind
01:06:58
of an idea where like you know what an incredible present to give somebody as they mature into age you know if you if
01:07:03
you read if you if you basically have heard all these astronauts have said you know what the the overview effect like
01:07:09
when you're above the Earth looking down it has this completely transformational
01:07:13
effect on your outlook on life and the planet and so you know to the extent that
01:07:19
that's a quantifiable thing to give that to your child seems like an enormous gift or
01:07:25
or um when everybody's of age or whatever where all of you guys go as a family so that the whole cabin is your
01:07:31
family that would be really cool too either those ideas I will do one of those too hold on a second Shabbat there
01:07:37
were four people correct in this fight if I remember this one there's four passengers yeah okay wait a second there
01:07:42
are four besties how are you not setting up a flight for the 100th episode of all in to be on
01:07:49
Virgin Galactic can you imagine watching David cry and be so scared I mean I could pretty much guarantee obviously
01:07:57
you guys have to buy tickets but I can pretty much guarantee you that if the three of you decided to buy tickets I
01:08:03
I'm pretty sure I can organize that we all go on the same flight that would be ratings
01:08:11
that's all I need is to be entombed with you guys for eternity you know can you address the Von Carmen line
01:08:24
controversy around you know what's the right point to be in space because it came up a lot this week in the news I
01:08:29
didn't want to kind of came up by one person well no no there was people talking about on the news and stuff like
01:08:34
maybe you can just blue origin being lame honestly that's so petty by Bezos so sure maybe just share what happened
01:08:41
and kind of uh you know the point of view on this be awesome but basically the question is what defines space right
01:08:47
so um if you if you just like start from the bottom from um uh ground level right you have the
01:08:56
trophosphere right so you have like the first kind of like 10 20 kilometers or so right then you
01:09:02
have the stratosphere right that's where like a lot of like weather balloon activity
01:09:07
happens that's at 50 kilometers then you have the mesosphere right that's where you'll
01:09:11
see things like meteors and stuff then you get to basically the Carmen line which is around I don't know 100
01:09:17
kilometers or so there are a bunch of countries that either have no opinion or point to this kind of group to Define
01:09:28
what the beginning of space is and they defined that at about 100 clicks which is I want to say 62
01:09:35
miles okay then there's the United States um and the dod and NASA Etc and we uh Define it at a different level 50 odd
01:09:49
miles and so in the United States you need to pass the U.S regulatory body's definition of what the threshold of
01:09:59
space is to be considered an astronaut um there is other countries that would then point to a different line the
01:10:07
Carmen line as the line um I think the point is it's all Much Ado About Nothing I think in the end I
01:10:14
think virgin stated that they went to 52 and a half or 53 and a half um you know things are iterative so over
01:10:21
time you'll folks will get higher and higher but the point is okay and what you basically go into
01:10:29
space you get to see the planet you get to feel microgravity you know you get the benefit of the
01:10:36
overview effect whether you're at 52 and a half I'm guessing you'll get the same
01:10:39
effect at 58 or 60 or 61. and then you come back to earth um so I thought it was kind of a little
01:10:48
cheap and unnecessary because there's not there's there's nothing experience wise that changes right I mean like the
01:10:54
not my understanding yeah blue origin did a tweet from the beginning new Shepard was designed to Fly Above the
01:11:00
Carmen line so none of our astronauts would have an asterisk next to their name for 96 of the world's population
01:11:06
space begins 100 kilometers up in the Internet it's just like why would they do that the days before the Richard
01:11:13
Branson goes up it's just totally classless it shows that Bezos has a competitive shriek which is just not
01:11:20
graceful I would say um and I think there's a little bit of bitterness there and then you look at
01:11:26
Elon what did Elon do he went he's so classy he went and he took a picture with branta and he went to support him and
01:11:35
wrote a congratulatory tweet Elon does not feel he's in competition but for some reason Bezos you know Bezos had to
01:11:42
like draft and approve this specific tweet from Blue origin and I just thought it was classless and just stupid
01:11:49
Jeff really made you look so bad Elon Elon was so fabulous I mean it just shows you like what a Class Act he is
01:11:55
and what he cares about which is like he cares about advancing um humans and our ability to do things
01:12:04
that are incredible and inspiring and when other people do it he's not zero-sum about it as you said Jason he
01:12:11
was there he was supportive um it was just lovely to see I think Bezos is still uh stung for when Elon
01:12:18
said he couldn't get it up meaning he couldn't get his couldn't get his rocket into space so so I don't know if that
01:12:23
was that was too classy of Elon well it was funny yeah well I don't know if you guys have
01:12:30
seen Jeff's rocket kind of small this rocket is I mean it's Jason now you're doing it it's got a tiny rocket
01:12:40
just so we uh put a pin in it Melvin Capital the people uh who uh went to war with the Reddit Traders or vice versa
01:12:48
lost five billion dollars couldn't happen to a nicer group of people I mean they're down
01:12:55
which is just singing and of itself in this kind of up Market but then to actually quantify it
01:13:00
they lost five billion dollars fighting a bunch of self-proclaimed ours I wouldn't say the
01:13:08
words I don't get canceled but they call themselves ours on Jason you can say it there you're not
01:13:19
calling them that they call themselves that they call themselves that yes all right listen love you besties uh sax
01:13:26
we're glad that you're safe and you're uh healthy no thanks to you I didn't put any jokes in there I have
01:13:33
so many jokes I'm gonna save them I mean honestly my thought on your recovery is
01:13:38
no comment I'm just jealous you're gonna lose another five freaking pounds because oh
01:13:44
yeah I'm down to 178 by the way come on stop are you really yeah manorexic I can't even break one when uh when are
01:13:51
you gonna stop was there a bet or no no bad I would probably lose that bad that'd be like me playing Saxon chess
01:13:57
it's just not uh Jason what are you tipping the scales at right now 190 one 190 and you're about to come to Italy
01:14:03
and basically you're gonna gain 15 pounds for sure no I'm doing one meal a day one meal a day that's it one meal a
01:14:11
day that's it I'm eating one meal a day how am I gonna turn down the food but what if you eat
01:14:17
for three hours in that one meal I just I try everything I'll just try and then I have discipline now just like I
01:14:22
stopped using Twitter I'm stopping Twitter can I tell one funny story about Jake Owen Italy talking about discipline
01:14:27
okay so we were there in Italy when was this Jake out a few years ago whatever this is a long time ago is this when we
01:14:33
were in Venice yeah you were with Jade and I was with with Jack that was a great story and we went to some ice
01:14:39
cream place right and so we all had we all had these like ice cream gelato with like two scoops or whatever on there so
01:14:46
Jason finishes his in like five seconds it would like just disappear and then he
01:14:52
walks up to Jacqueline and just like goes like like that and and then one Fell Swoop he ate the the ice cream it
01:15:03
was like it was like a bulldog it was like a it was like a bulldog just eating your ice cream but how good was that
01:15:09
fish that we got remember that restaurant I found yeah Rod I mean we still talk about that
01:15:14
place yeah that was like one of the best meals I've ever had I've been having a gelato guys every day every day but
01:15:20
they're so small that's what I love about this about the Italians it's a little it doesn't feel like there's like a lot
01:15:26
of preservatives and stuff in there no it's just like butter and sugar heavy cream whatever it is it's so good it's
01:15:32
so good it's so good how the tomatoes right now I can't wait to be incredible incredible I mean I eat them I bathe in
01:15:39
them I rub them on my face what about the mutts you got the moots how's the burrata and the Moots
01:15:44
he's gonna gained 15 pounds you're going to turn down this food I don't know how you're going to say no to
01:15:58
the pasta you'll have Pasta lunch pasta dinner you're just gonna you're gonna go
01:16:01
crazy I'm gonna just have two bites of everything two bites of six different pastas and by the way by the way the the
01:16:09
the the the the biggest the best kept secret is the Italian the quality of Italian white wine is outrageous really
01:16:18
it's outrageous we should play some cards and drink some wine I think we're going to play no how many
01:16:26
how many calories are in the white wine shramas calories I I mean I have no idea but you
01:16:31
know look the thing in the summertime here is you end up walking so I end up walking a lot or bicycling a little bit
01:16:37
blah blah blah at the end of the day like you're burning through everything I gotta say this e-bike I got I got a rad
01:16:42
power bike no no no the whole point is to not have a motor that powers it you [ __ ] lazy back no no what you don't
01:16:48
understand is because you have the motor in it your mouth you ride your bike normal but then like let's say you do
01:16:53
have dinner or something like that or you want to go to dinner 10 miles away or 50 miles away you might not take your
01:16:58
bike it's too long of a ride with these electric bikes instead of going 10 miles
01:17:01
on the way there it takes your 10 Mile ride and just puts you at 25 but you're still burning the same number of
01:17:06
calories it's like augmenting I really think that electric bikes are going to change cities like in a major
01:17:13
way they're already starting to in Europe and in China but all right everybody we'll see you next time on the
01:17:17
all-in podcast love you sex back at you sucks I hope I hope you get better feel better thank you
01:17:24
thanks guys yeah I'm better I'm ready better don't worry about it and wait Freeburg you have nothing to say
01:17:29
computer it was nice to check off the box for my social interactions for the week I will
01:17:38
now go back down 75 minutes of social interaction powering down in three two one Mama we'll see you next time
01:17:49
let your winners ride Rain Man Davis and they've just gone crazy with it [Music]
01:18:05
besties [Music] it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release
01:18:26
[Music] is [Music]