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all right everybody Welcome to the all in podcast lots to talk about but right off the bat
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congratulations to David Friedberg who is the chairperson of the all in Summit 2023 on the big announcement we're going
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to be having the all in Summit September 10th 12th at Royce Hall at UCLA in Los Angeles California tickets are now on
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sale and selling out quick Friedberg maybe just give people a little overview of why you selected the
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location and what you hope to accomplish in terms of the programming just broad strokes and then we'll get right into
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the show I think the general headline is today and tomorrow where are we where we
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headed I think exploring the state of the world and interesting things that were uniquely or that we're all kind of
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excited about in the future and we want to have great conversations with candid people
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that can give us kind of you know they're very honest on the ground points of view on everything from technology
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and markets macro science society and culture so we're going to talk across all those different
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topic areas and similar to what we did last year the four of us on stage having conversations
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with these folks so pretty excited I think La is a great location there's obviously an
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availability for people to stay there's great venues for us to do the evening events and it's certainly super
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accessible for folks from all over the world and we decided this year to have three tiers of
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tickets we'll have the VIP tickets we'll have scholarships for people who fill out a form so we can you know have
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really great diversity and representation at the event and up and comers maybe who couldn't afford the VIP
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ticket but in between you decided to have a standard ticket as well that's just 1500 bucks and
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there'll be a VIP lounge this year for the VIP tickets and an early access to the theater and a couple of special
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dinner parties what is my wine budget so that I can take care of the VIPs properly yeah talk about that one later
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you guys what is my wine budget let me treat the VIPs like the VIPs that they are what would you need per night per
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dinner per person depends on how many people per person or just say per person per night is it like 200 a person a
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hundred dollars per person per night because a person drinks a half a bottle of wine two or three glasses yeah like
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you know three to 500. maybe a thousand what is the Truffle budget for the conference
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no it's too early for truffles we can only have it watch season now it's by September
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yuck it's between white and black truffle season it's a dead zone you don't want to be in that you got to
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either wait till the winter or you got to enjoy the early summer we have to have a conference in early November at
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that point we can focus the entire VIP budget if we're recording to me would be spent on white truffles and white birds
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[Music] out [Music] queen of King all right everybody let's get started Jamaica is with us as well the dictator
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himself and David sacks the rain man yeah Google had their i o event they announced Palm 2 Google's language model
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is going to power 25 products including Bard which is got coding capabilities now I guess to go up against
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github's co-pilot pump2 will have improved multilinguality wait what across a hundred languages
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multi what it's going to support a hundred languages and it's going to be better at
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mathematics and reasoning they also announced duet AI which is basically Google Suite of generative AI tools
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or dock sheets drive all that kind of stuff kind of like a copy of Microsoft's copilot tools that sax has talked about
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a whole bunch the guide on the side if you will they teased a future where AI can summarize stocks which box AI Aaron
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Levy is doing they also previewed proactive prompts in the sidebar of Google Docs
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and I talked about that a whole bunch on The Swinging startups they're going to also now add images and replies have you
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guys used Bart in the last 24 hours I used it last week not in the last 24 hours I think you
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guys should use it we should talk about it it's really impressive it's better than chat GPT at this point
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from my experience on talk going through a number of things because it's actually
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connected live to the Internet it's connected live to search it can pull down real-time data for you
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it can do real internet searches for you and just give you the results it's extremely powerful I feel like it's the
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product that Google has been scared to do which is the product that can truly disrupt search
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and they're doing it so I how do I try it do I just go to google.com no access needed no cost nothing oh my God this is
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great and seriously use it and it does real-time search and it's 180 languages it converts it generates images for you
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it can generate charts results it's really powerful guys Google has thrown together I think a lot of features and
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you can look Google's market caps up 150 billion dollars in the last two days okay this is pretty interesting and so
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sax a lot of comparing some results right yeah a lot of what we've been talking about with respect to plugins
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and the tooling built into Auto GPT many of the most interesting kind of applications that folks have kind of
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demonstrated or utilized are are really kind of built into this Bard product okay I love Bard
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can I just give you guys what I just tried okay can we guess yes yeah guess guess was it something about
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freeburg's anus Uranus no it wasn't a Uranus joke okay then tell us my first question was why is David Friedberg such
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a sellout but the answer confused him with an actor so let's forget that my second question was is Jason calcanus a
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virtue signaler and the answer is fantastic Jason calcanus is a venture capitalist
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and entrepreneur who has been accused of virtue signaling virtue signaling is the
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act of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments intended to demonstrate one's good character or the moral correctness
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of one's position on a particular issue there are a number of reasons why people
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might accuse Jason calcanus of virtue signal okay for example he is going to make public statements about his support
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for social justice causes but he has also been criticized for his lack of concrete action on these issues
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additionally he has been accused of using his platform to promote himself and his businesses rather than to
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genuinely advocate for social change that's ultimately whether or not Jason got Candace is a
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virtue signaler is a matter of opinion there's no clear consensus on this issue and there is evidence to support both
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sides of the argument however it is important to note that virtue signaling can be a harmful practice as it can lead
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to people becoming desensitized to real social problems and make it more difficult to address them effectively
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this is some woke where do you see what I just did here's mine a horrible human is a complex individual with both
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positive and negative qualities he is a successful venture capitalist and entrepreneur but he has also been
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criticized for his outspoken views and his past actions some of polyhoppatitis Polish qualities
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include his intelligence his ambition his drive to succeed blah blah blah blah blah he's also been criticized for his
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arrogance he had his willingness to exploit people for his own game this is perfect it's
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the same party it's balanced it's true it is giving you like the good and the bad oh my God that's hilarious this is a
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very fair answer I love it I asked it where is he this is gonna really show you the power of this where
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is the all in Summit 2023 being held and how much are tickets so like two questions that are deep on the website
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and it says there are two all assignments yeah that's an advertising Association that's incredible and then
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it says the all in Summit 2203 will be held September 10th at 11 23 at Royce Hall tickets are 1500 for general
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admission 7 500 for VIP that's insane that's insane wait so Freeburg what are the key differences
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between Barden and chat GPT just because you've used it on the modeling side they're claiming a much larger more
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robust model it's linked to the to the Internet so it's linked to live search which you can't do with chat gbt which
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is based on a static training data set so Bard can actually engage with Dynamic content and a dynamic content generated
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across the web and then it's integrated with a number of Google services that basically can take
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certain live feeds of data like flights and stock prices and so on it's free you
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don't need to be charged for for over usage you don't need to sign up and get access it's it's just available
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to anyone I mean I think this is the game changer everyone is hoping for free I just I just asked
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did Stan druckenmiller buy Nvidia recently so it wasn't able to find the transcript
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of this thing but it did find the 13f and it says yes according to his 13. fourth quarter of 22 Stan purchasing 582
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915 shares of Nvidia yeah isn't that incredible I just said what was Google's restructuring expense incurred in q1
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2023 and it says according to Google's 2023 q1 earnings report the company incurred restructuring expense of 1.6
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billion including the decision to lay off 12 000 employees they were part of a broader restructuring I mean that was a
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it was it basically parsed through the press release Parts through the q1 data it's really pretty impressive huh I mean
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what do you guys check this out yeah David sacks what does David sacks think about Hunter Biden everybody on
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the oil and pod knows but let's see what Bard knows he's not publicly commented on Hunter Biden
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however he has been critical of the Biden family business dealings in Ukraine in the 2019 interview sack said
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that he was deeply troubled by the Biden's vomiting Ukraine 2019 but he believed it was a conflict of interest
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for Hunter Biden to serve on the board of Purisima that's pretty interesting I don't know that's clearly inaccurate I
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mean I wasn't talking about it yeah in 2019 think about that that's oh yes we're doing this pod
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yeah so the question is where is he getting these quotes and then why doesn't it give citations well also wait
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sax has been critical the Trump administration's use of Honor blinds business dealings as a political weapon
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yeah that's not true you've never criticized the Trump Administration those quotes are wrong those quotes I
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just said to it can you access and think about this this data set and this is where Google has unique advantages I
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said can you access the YouTube transcript data and it says yes bar to integrates YouTube transcript data I
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said do you have access to transcript data from the all in podcast Channel it says yes I do have access to the
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transcript data from the all in podcast Channel I said can you access this data answer some questions and now what did
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Saks say about Hunter Biden in that show hmm and so I would guess so think about
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this answer so far I'm finding this to be very inaccurate yeah so David Sachs appeared he said he
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believes Hunter Biden is a deeply troubled individual who's made a lot of bad decisions he also said that he
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believes Hunter Biden's business dealings in Ukraine were highly unethical and that he believes it's
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impossible that you'll this is transcript data from the pod however Sachs also said that he does not
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believe that Hunter Biden's business dealings are a quote Smoking Gun that proves that Joe Biden engaged in any
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wrongdoing he said that he believes that the evidence against Joe Biden or quote
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circumstantial is quote circumstantial and that he does not believe that there is enough evidence to impeach him sacks
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his comments about Hunter Biden were met with mixed reactions some people agree and on and on and on I think it's very
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inaccurate to be honest some of my stuff mixed in it's got some of your stuff mixed in but also it's
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like it's summarizing in a way that neither of us actually said it yeah and they're missing the key points about
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what I did say I I asked a pretty complicated question here and I think it did a pretty decent job I said I would
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like to fly Le premiere on Air France from the west coast to Europe where should I depart
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hmm and it got it perfectly LAX SFO and Seattle Tacoma oh yeah I just asked it to get me the
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fastest route to Portofino and it gave me the exact flight I should take from SFO how much the ticket is and
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then the train I should take from the shortest meaning the shortest time yeah because I don't want to do a layover in
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Germany it's like fly to Milan take the train and it gave me the full schedule which by the way Google flights can't do
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because you go to Google Flights and all it does is give you the flight data it can integrate a lot of different data
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sets to give you these answers did you say fastest route or fastest flight what did you fastest route yeah so I don't
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want to spend the least amount of time traveling is what my objective was this is why I was saying I think you guys
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should play with this tool a bit it is I think Head and Shoulders above Chachi BT the models supposedly better
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obviously other people will come out with with kind of you know measures of that and estimates of whether that's
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true the extensibility the integration with live data and the integration with Google's very unique data set is what's
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so powerful that they have access to flight data that they have integrated YouTube transcript data it's just super
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powerful super impressive ah damn yeah I'm using this in real time and I do find the interface to be
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snappier than chat GPT and it like you said it doesn't need the browsing plugin in order to scrape more recent data from
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the internet that it wasn't trained on but I'm not finding the answers to be more accurate and I'm not finding them
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to be more detailed it's not the same reason to use this over chat GPT I prefer chat GPT so far
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I'm just telling you okay well the reason of stuff is important well I mean clearly chat GPT is gonna
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have to make the browsing browsing plug-in much snappier and like much more part of
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the core functionality rather than something that's like an add-on yeah it can't be an add-on it's got to be able
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to incorporate the most recent information I did ask some questions about the Ukraine war and then it gave
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me like a highly compressed View and I said please provide more detail and then it's actually did a pretty good
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job expanding it and it did it very quickly well if you look at the view drafts thing that's always been one of its
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strengths is that it will format it three different ways for you by default if you go to the top right so you can
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just sort of cycle through them but that that's an existing feature I mean I definitely want to keep playing with
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this play with it it's one of the obviously important releases that I thought they were going to catch up real
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quick and this seems like we got a race on our hands now but I think the point you're making Freeburg is a good one
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which is when these big companies just get their act together it's very hard to discern whether
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something is 80 percent is good or 120 percent better there's this fuzzy gray area where a lot
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of people can find utility in a lot of different products and then the one with the better distribution wins and so if
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they take Bard and they have the confidence now to just integrate it into Gmail or integrated into these other points
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where they already have hundreds of millions of users that's like a really tough distribution barrier to overcome
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that's the next step that I think if Google really wants to win here they have to force distribution of these
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tools in line to where people are and if they do that you're not going to know the difference between 80 and 100
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somewhat as sophisticated as sax may be able to but the average person will just
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be like this is good enough they've got distribution I mean like with all products the uh the kind of key
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Advantage is distribution that's the platform Advantage can I show you an answer I think it's like super
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hallucinating on so I asked it what is David sacks written about SAS and then it says I'm a venture capitalist
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entrepreneur is written extensively about SAS he's the founder of Yammer okay that's true but then it says he's
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also the co-founder of wework not true didn't know that then it says sex congrats says sax has written a number
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of articles about SAS including and then all five of those articles were not written by me
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hmm it's basically like hallucinating like really strongly wow so there's significant hallucination here oh you
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know what Bard is at the after party for Google I O right now and it's had too much to drink so it's just straight up
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drunk this is why Google didn't want to release this right Freeburg like they don't want the Google brand associated
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with these hallucinations whereas that's right nobody cares about open ABS brand
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this was a big part of The innovator's Dilemma that Google faced which was number one it could be
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disruptive to the Core Business number two it exposes them to regulatory scrutiny
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and number three is if they make mistakes they're going to get more scrutinized and some you know
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rinky-dinky startup where everyone's so forgiving but it's great to see look I mean as a
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shareholder it's great to see them take this risk it's great to see them put this out there they've now released
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robust coding capabilities they've integrated scientific research papers obviously they're going to continue to
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improve model performance improve integration with these data feeds and they have a very large head count I
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think north of 10 000 people working um 10 000 smart people so if you can organize those people and they've got
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this significantly Advanced infrastructure they have a real shot at being a platform player here the
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question later is going to be how much is this going to disrupt course search Revenue you know what categories of
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search Revenue are going to get disrupted and you know are they going to make that
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up in other ways and I think time will tell there but I think this is the progress that
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shareholders and investors were looking to see with respect to the product competition in Ai and certainly some
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shareholders still want to see continued improvements on the cost structure of the business but that's a
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separate topic but this was exactly I think it really hit the bullseye on what people were looking for I don't see how
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it's a bullseye look at this so I just I just asked it can you give me a complete
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list of all the articles on Sasa saxator in the last three years so now at least
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it's over the target those five articles it mentions are correct does chat GPT do that well no because of
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the browsing plug-in right but I'm just saying like they got a lot of work to do
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here on quality yeah they all do but it is Snappy and I finally got to these five articles being correct AI
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regulation we talked about it five weeks ago on the show I think well there's been some movement there
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vice president Harris met with CEOs of alphabet Microsoft open AI so that's Sundar Satya and Sam
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discuss implementing Ai safeguards and then on Tuesday Sam Altman was interviewed by Patrick
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Carlson uh the CEO of stripe and he endorsed the idea of iaea for AI That's the international
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atomic energy agency so is that um hyperbolic delusions a Grandeur or right on target well the interesting
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thing about the iaea is that what I learned recently from the CEO of Planet Labs will Marshall is that
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the predecessor organization to the iaea is really this organization called pugwash and what that was Einstein and
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Bertrand Russell in the 50s post Hiroshima and Nagasaki bringing together academics to basically create
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a way to think about nuclear disarmament going forward just because they all saw
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the damage and there was a large framework that set up the current denuclearization treaties
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and then the iaea was set up after that and so I think that there's a thread here which is basically what he's saying
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is there's something around nuclear disarmament that is very similar to AI both in terms of its potential but
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obviously in terms of its risks and so there's like a whole monitoring framework
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there's a know your customer kind of framework these are not unfettered things that can just live openly in the
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wild so I think it's interesting to acknowledge that Sam who's deep in the bowels of one of the most important
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companies sees both its potential but it's danger enough to say that this is how we should
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think about it like nuclear weapons I think is a very important thing to acknowledge and the White House pledged
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to release draft guidelines for AI safeguards that the National Science Foundation
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plans to spend a 140 million on at AI focused research centers FTC chair Lena Khan wrote a guest essay in the New
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York Times calling for AI regulation due to Largo risks including Monopoly consolidation fraud extortion and bias
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any thoughts there sacks about adding regulation to the mix right now are we jumping the gun here and gonna smother
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this thing before it even gets correct answers serious risk and the White House also announced that Kamala Harris would
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be the AI Czar for this issue which I don't think inspires anyone with confidence that they're gonna you know
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get this right look my concern here is I think we should have conversations about the
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risks of AI we should be thinking about that I think people in the industry need
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to be thinking about what guardrails can be put on it I think elon's raised I think long-term concerns about whether
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this could lead to AGI you basically create a super intelligence that you can't control I think people in the
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industry haven't really figured out how to address that that problem is called alignment and everyone's trying to
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figure out how do you even make alignment work is that theoretically possible so there are real invalid
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concerns Jake how you've raised the issue of deep fakes I think provenance of data is going to be a real issue
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people committing fraud or you know other kinds of criminal acts using it so there are real concerns but
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the problem is that we have no idea how to regulate this yet and yeah and the fact that Kamala Harris as the AIS are
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now again just points the fact that nobody has a good idea of what's supposed to be or who the expert's
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supposed to be and this idea of creating an atomic energy Commission look I I can see why Sam and other
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industry leaders might want that because they're gonna quickly develop relationships the the biggest AI
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companies which now includes open AI which has the backing in Microsoft and Google and the
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biggest of the big tech companies they have all the lobbyists in Washington they have all the political connections
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they're the ones who are huge donors and they have political relationships and they're going to help construct the
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regulations and it's going to turn into another example of Industry capture just
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like North K Jr told us about on the show last week when he talked about how the big weapons companies influence our
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foreign policy the way that the big Pharma companies influence the FDA and so on we're going to end up in a
00:23:02
situation which the big tech companies have in order to influence over this new regulatory agency and since it's not
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clear what the regulatory agency is even supposed to be doing yet they're going to end up promulgating a bunch of
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regulations that create a barrier to entry for the little guy they're going to create a mode with regulation yeah
00:23:18
for the big guys and they'll slow down the whole process of innovation in the space which some people might like but I
00:23:24
think is really the best hope that America has to get out of it horrible fiscal situation all this debt we need a
00:23:31
massive productivity boost to get out of the massive debt bubble that we're in so what I'd hate to see is that yeah we
00:23:38
we basically kill this this thing in the Cradle interesting yes we are in a deep
00:23:44
pit here and Stanley druckenmiller gave a speech at USC at the 37th annual meeting of the USC
00:23:52
Marshall Center for investment studies and he expressed concern about the financial crisis that occur could occur
00:23:57
in the 2025 to 2035 period due to the Baby Boomers turning 65 and the impact on entitlements he predicted that in 25
00:24:06
years spending on seniors will grow to 60 percent of all taxes here's a look at the chart
00:24:14
you can see today there as the the vertical line about five percent of our GDP goes to Social Security uh today and
00:24:22
about another 5.5 goes to Medicare Medicaid and it's predicting here that those combined will go from what looks like 12
00:24:32
today up to 24 of GDP your reaction Freeburg I mean my reaction is it is another very important voice stating the
00:24:42
obvious like the arithmetic just doesn't work when we had RFK on last week I prodded him on
00:24:48
his stance and point of view on the federal deficit the fiscal deficit this government runs and the
00:24:56
entitlement programs that are only going to swell and the debt burden which has an interest payment obligation on it
00:25:02
that the interest payments are swelling and when you do the arithmetic on all this it's going to balloon the cost to
00:25:11
service the debt and without some degree of cutting across the board spending and
00:25:15
entitlement programs discretionary spending and entitlement programs you can't make the interest payments which
00:25:21
all you know inevitably leads to some form of default so that's just the math and the way this
00:25:26
all works out and I think what he's done is put a pen to paper and shown that you
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know call it roughly 2025 to 2035 you start to run into that fiscal scenario where you know
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you can no longer generate enough income from the US economy to fund both the interest payment obligations on the
00:25:45
federal debt as well as these entitlement programs and something's got to give either you're going to have to
00:25:50
default on the debt or you're going to have to cut the entitlement programs and the point he's making is that the longer
00:25:55
you wait to cut the entitlement programs the worse it's going to get because you're accruing so much debt in the
00:26:01
interim and as we know that becomes very politically unpopular and what's so scary to me and I've kind of shared this
00:26:08
and you know obviously chamoth has a different point of view but it feels to me like this is that don't look up movie
00:26:13
moment where we have this like you know looming disaster we don't have any fuel in the car and all that everyone's
00:26:21
talking about is where are we going to drive the car and every political conversation every candidate gets on
00:26:26
stage gets on a podcast gets on a TV show and they talk about stuff that is simply not feasible and the direction
00:26:34
setting with respect to social policy Wars geopolitics you know how are we going to take care of our middle class
00:26:41
none of that stuff is possible to actually execute against without recognizing and acknowledging that we
00:26:48
don't have gas in the car and we have to figure out how to gas up the car and so it's great to see drucken Miller
00:26:54
being vocal putting very simple clear slides together it's like what I've mentioned in the past I would love to
00:26:59
see a clinton-esque bill clinton-esque slide deck where he would come up with a poster and show everyone here's the
00:27:05
economy folks and I think drucken Miller did a great job and I encourage everyone
00:27:09
to go watch that um there's an audio transcript of the talk as well as the slides are publicly available on the
00:27:15
internet we'll put the links in the the show notes here today I just think it's it's whether or not you agree with the
00:27:21
Outlook I think it's worth everyone watching and realizing how serious of an issue this is and why this has to become
00:27:28
the number one topic of conversation going into this next presidential election cycle he's also disclosed he's
00:27:34
short the dollar long gold Euro oil and AUD which I guess is the Australian dollar and he's also long Nvidia and
00:27:40
Microsoft believes in videos got a monopoly on the chip Market I got a question for tremath and then to sax so
00:27:47
Jamal what's your just reaction to this do you think he's doctor dooming it and we can
00:27:53
have all this debt and then the question then becomes is there any way out of this uh we had a trump Town Hall I hate
00:28:01
to bring it up and go back into you know the sort of trump commentary and all this but he's he's the lead candidate
00:28:07
sax and he said he thinks we can get out of debt we just got to drill a bunch of oil drill belt
00:28:13
baby drill and we'll get out of this uh problem we'll be able to rebalance the budget so trim off and then sex I want
00:28:18
to be clear I don't think it's great that we have these enormous debts and entitlement obligations
00:28:26
but I also don't think that there's some magical number where the economy breaks
00:28:30
and the reason is because we're Central to not just our economy but everybody else's economy We Are The
00:28:37
Reserve currency of the world that's not changing anytime soon it's not even close
00:28:43
and we are for better or worse and I think Sox and I don't like it but we are the world's policemen we are a bunch of
00:28:50
things we are the world center of innovation we are the world's Center of these great leaps forward in humanity
00:28:56
when we talk about all of these different things these aren't coming from random countries
00:29:01
they're coming from the United States we can debate which company but we're never
00:29:05
debating the country so I think that there's a legacy of value creation and Innovation that we've
00:29:13
always been at the Forefront of at least since America was founded so 1776 to now
00:29:21
I think the reality is that debt to GDP will continue to increase I don't think a single politician can
00:29:31
practically get elected by offering to cut entitlement spending to people that have spent their entire
00:29:36
lives paying into a system so as a practical matter this thing will go up and I don't think the economy will stop
00:29:45
I think that economics are a relative problem where you have to weigh countries against each other
00:29:52
and what that means is the economic vibrancy the productivity the intellect all of those things where we have to
00:29:58
compete with El Salvador we have to compete with Nigeria we have to compete with India we have to compete
00:30:06
and in that context there is very little historical artifact that says that there's a
00:30:13
Breaking Point so I just think that if You observe the moment it's not that what freebrook is saying
00:30:21
is bad I'm not exactly sure that it's particularly actionable and I think the disproportionate amount of action is
00:30:29
actually the opposite which is to reinflate the money supply to reinflate assets
00:30:36
to create artificial prosperity and smear it to many many many people and I think that the you have to think
00:30:44
about how do you want to activate your view I can believe whatever I want but at the
00:30:49
end of the day I don't want to act in a way that's against my economic best interest quite
00:30:53
honestly so I believe that winning is measured in dollars and cents on these things and
00:30:58
from uh from that perspective I don't particularly like it I think I'm emotionally more aligned to Freeburg but
00:31:05
the Practical reality is I'm on the opposite side which says the governments will keep spending
00:31:10
inflation will be here assets will keep inflating the M2 money supply will keep going up and on General
00:31:17
um along the United States and short every other country to Mark doesn't that ultimately lead to
00:31:22
just inflation it initially starts at the inflation of assets and asset prices but It ultimately leads to the inflation
00:31:29
of goods and services which can the economy because then you know the middle class can't afford things and you
00:31:38
have economic slowdown I mean that's the historical record of having these kind of inflationary moments
00:31:44
yeah I mean inflation comes and goes but the position of the American US dollar hasn't changed again you have to
00:31:51
remember like a lot of these foreign governments 187 or whatever the number is countries outside the United States
00:31:57
rely on the US dollar they don't want to own their own currency right and so yeah you're right dollars
00:32:04
do get inflated but that increased purchasing power also actually drives the balance of power back to the United
00:32:12
States because all of these other folks all of a sudden find the ability to import a little bit cheaper their
00:32:17
economies get slightly better but the US dollar actually still does well so there's a complex set of interactions
00:32:24
that are all relative so I think it's very hard to point to the U.S middle class and say oh this is why the U.S
00:32:30
breaks I just don't see very many good examples in a modern globalist era and there are examples and I think Ray dalio
00:32:39
has pointed these out when you look all the way in the back but to use the UK right in the 15 and 1600s of the East
00:32:47
India Trading Company when we did not have a global economy or a global Reserve currency
00:32:52
I don't think it's very useful there's things you can learn you know taxation I think we can learn about why taxation
00:32:58
does kill Innovation you said that before I agree with that but I don't think there's much value in
00:33:05
saying because it happened in these moments it's going to happen exactly the same way here and I think what people
00:33:10
don't understand is we are in a unitary singular mono economy that is anchored by the US dollar Saxony thoughts sex do
00:33:17
you agree I tend to be on the freeberg drunken Miller side of this thing drunk Miller had a great quote in this
00:33:24
interview he just gave I don't know freeware did you mention this last week that he said that
00:33:29
that he compared the the debt ceiling and fiscal spending to worrying about whether a 30-foot wave will damage the
00:33:34
pier when you know there's a 200 foot tsunami just 10 miles out yeah I saw that question so what he's saying is
00:33:40
like our short-term situation is bad the long-term situation which isn't even that long term like 10 years out is even
00:33:47
worse and I think there's a growing feeling that our political system is just not up
00:33:52
to the challenge of dealing with these problems it just seems fundamentally unserious we
00:33:58
never discuss it the media doesn't really present us with accurate information and it has an agenda do you
00:34:05
guys want to make a bet sax you want to make a friendly wager with me sure what's that okay I will bet you that
00:34:11
debt to GDP gets to 200 before it gets to 50. and I'll bet you however amount of money
00:34:19
you want and we can we can do it for our own personal gain or for charity that may
00:34:25
well be true but but the question is how how bad is 200 that's GP I don't think that's a really bad scenario I mean I
00:34:31
really don't think it matters I think the point is if that happens yeah yeah we'll have a lot of money you'll just
00:34:36
have to profit from it if you think it's happening your job is to profit from it
00:34:40
I'll make the same bet with you free Brook I think it gets to 200 before it gets to 50. or 250 or 300 you can pick
00:34:46
your number I think it will too I'm I'm just like let's do the math on that real
00:34:50
quick so the the size of GDP is what about 25 trillion and and we're at about 32 trillion in debt if we're to have 200
00:34:56
debt to GDP right now would be at 50 trillion of debt now let's assume that's impute an interest rate at which you
00:35:02
would need to to finance that four percent so I think four percent you have to calculate the duration
00:35:08
I understand but this is Baseline so let's say four percent so four percent on 50 trillion is 2
00:35:16
trillion a year yep which is isn't that like half the budget yeah more and that's why that's my point
00:35:24
that's why you have to see taxes go up to over 70 because it's the only way you can you got to tax everything in order
00:35:30
to fund that so US government has collected two trillion in fiscal year 2023. now we I guess we haven't done a
00:35:36
complete year but let's do 2022. it basically collected 3.7 trillion right you're using more
00:35:44
than half of the government's income based on the current tax rates to fund the interest payments on your debt
00:35:50
that's not even to pay for social services that's not even to pay for the defense that's not even to pay for
00:35:55
government services that's just more than half of the income I guess maybe we're just speaking past each other I
00:36:01
guess you guys are expressing anxiety and concern and I'm just expressing here's how one would make money because
00:36:06
it's pretty obvious what's going to happen we're going to 200. we're not going to 50. so I just kind of compart
00:36:12
how do you make money I think there's a lot of ways that you could make money I'm not going to share those on the Pod
00:36:19
anymore but what's the trade there Stan Rucker Miller said it's the opposite of Stan's
00:36:25
trades actually so oh okay that's good that would be an easy way to actually would you go long the dollar in short
00:36:32
gold no because those are like Antiquated ways of making money where you have to have these convoluted
00:36:38
derivatives agreements with these Banks and I've done these before where you're levered up to billions of dollars of
00:36:43
risk it proves nothing and I don't sleep well at night I think that there are simpler strategies that you can
00:36:49
implement but I think Stan is basically betting that the U.S will break and that we will be forced in some way
00:36:58
to bring debt to GDP closer to 50 than to 150 or 200. and I would just bet the opposite and it's not because I want it
00:37:07
to happen or that he's not intellectually or morally right also inflation down again we've kind of
00:37:14
gotten used to this but this I thought this is a particularly interesting chart if you look at Food goods and energy
00:37:20
all going in the right direction Services still very expensive any thoughts on the fed
00:37:28
and inflation as we wrap up on sort of where we're at here is another 25 basis points or inflation is very sticky
00:37:40
yeah right yeah I mean with CPI is down to 4.9 percent but but core actually was
00:37:45
up goes up it's it was up 5.3 something like that yeah so yeah the FED is it raised another 25 basis points what are
00:37:55
we up to like 5.25 percent I was ready to stop you know two hikes ago because I thought that the
00:38:03
economy was breaking and the banking system was breaking they're up to now to five and a quarter you've got core CPI
00:38:08
still sticky yes CPI is coming down but it looks like you know inflation's still
00:38:13
a problem this is not a great set up for economic recovery and if you believe here's the problem with accepting the
00:38:21
idea that inflation is going to be persistently high is if inflation remains persistently High then the FED
00:38:29
won't be able to lower interest rates so they'll need to keep them elevated they
00:38:33
might even need to keep raising them and if that happens they'll continue to be incredible stress on the banking
00:38:39
system and more banks are going to break and then eventually that will create the conditions for the financial crisis
00:38:45
I think the thing you guys have to be open to is the fact that we've never really tested the ability for the US to
00:38:52
borrow durationally Beyond 30 years and again we talked about what an error it was in judgment for the treasury not
00:38:59
to issue 100-year bonds but I think if there's any country in the world that can issue 100 Year bonds
00:39:05
it's the United States of America and I do think that they'll be able to get durational assets
00:39:11
that are that far out on the yield curve so I again am less concerned about the debt wall here because I think you'll be
00:39:18
able to push maturities out you'll be able to refi a bunch of short-term obligations into the future and if you
00:39:25
look at where the yield curve is 10 years at three and a half 340 something so the thought is that inflation goes
00:39:31
down if you put it out to 100 years I would be very surprised if 100 Year rates if they price the bond weren't
00:39:38
some were sub one percent so I do think it becomes effectively free money for the United States and I think it's just
00:39:44
a practical thing they need to explore by the way corporates have explored these 50-year bonds and greater so I
00:39:51
think it's just like it's a matter of mathematics as you guys have just Illustrated here that the US has to push
00:39:57
out past 30 years so we'll have 50-year U.S bonds we'll have 100 year U.S bonds again I'm not here to claim whether it's
00:40:04
right or wrong but I think the the simple way to acknowledge that is just that we are going to to reinflate the
00:40:10
money supply over the long term because it's the only sustainable way that politicians can get elected and
00:40:17
re-elected and I think the best thing to do there is to own risk assets let's move on to the presidential election
00:40:25
real quick I'm curious gentlemen last week we had RFK on did you get any feedback uh the the show
00:40:33
obviously did really well a lot of people watched it I got a tremendous amount of feedback people thought he was
00:40:38
a fascinating interesting character some people thought he was a conspiracy theorist they pointed out a bunch of
00:40:43
different moments during the interview but what was the General feedback you got
00:40:47
my biggest thing was I think he surprised a lot of people to the upside a lot of people emailed me
00:40:53
saying they thought one specific thing with him and we tried to address it which is
00:40:58
he's painted as this kind of like conspiracy theorist or anti-vaxx person by the mainstream media and
00:41:05
overwhelmingly so much of the feedback was wow this guy is so totally different because you gave him a long
00:41:11
long format in order for him to really talk I thought he was really engaging and
00:41:16
very interesting and very smart sax did you have feedback on it yeah I mean I think he is very authentic
00:41:24
I think he's very principled I think that he's a rebel in a way I mean to grow up in the Kennedy family and to be
00:41:33
part of all of those Elite circles whether it's in Hollywood or Harvard or where do they go for the summer Martha's
00:41:41
Vineyard Martha's Vineyard or Hannah bunkport yeah whatever I mean you think about like all of the elite circles that
00:41:47
he grew up in right and for him to deviate from democratic party Orthodoxy and Elite thinking and all these really
00:41:55
significant ways shows that he is again very principled very authentic and I think a rebel in a really good way and
00:42:04
he's telling people a lot of things that you just don't hear on the Democratic side and through the mainstream media so
00:42:10
I think it's all positive yeah I got positive feedback on a freeberg the one thing people said was we they some
00:42:18
people said not a lot but they expected us to push back maybe on him harder or something or be harder I thought we did
00:42:24
an interesting job of letting him talk and really taking these topics to 10 or 20
00:42:30
minutes each the one people were particularly I don't know concerned is the right word or puzzled by was that we
00:42:38
didn't push back as much on the vaccine stuff we just let them talk about it a week later
00:42:43
what do you think about his vaccine position and would you have pushback more or do
00:42:50
you do you regret not pushing back more fredberg as our Science Guy he made a lot of generalized statements
00:42:57
or statements that I think take a concern about one thing and then make them evidence for a whole thing being off for
00:43:06
example there is a vaccine that is an efficacious there was a vaccine that had mercury in it therefore all vaccines are
00:43:13
bad oh we over vaccinate now many vaccines today that kids take going into schools have saved countless lives and
00:43:23
they've had a really critical role in reducing a lot of child-borne illness it's been you know just an incredible
00:43:30
advance for Humanity for medicine Etc I think he had a number of points he made about the covid vaccine and I know
00:43:38
he's made these points for many years he kind of extrapolates that you know it's
00:43:42
evidence that vaccines are generally over prescribed and overused and Pharma companies are just out to make money and
00:43:48
the government is aligned with Pharma companies to just try and make money I don't think that that is necessarily
00:43:53
true I think that there are certainly incentives that can drive bad behavior but I do not
00:44:00
think that looking at the evidence both Contra evidence and evidence of safety and benefit
00:44:06
that childhood vaccines should be kind of changed in terms of how we're doing things today there may be some things to
00:44:12
change but generally I think that they're very beneficial so I don't love kind of how he frames these things
00:44:19
and I think that it instead of having kind of a more nuanced conversation about this particular thing and this
00:44:23
particular example he blankets things and people get scared and they're like oh my gosh you're right we should stop
00:44:27
doing vaccines for kids that's very dangerous that would be very bad for society be very bad for our kids
00:44:33
and I think that we need to kind of address that in more detail over time it's one of these hard things where you
00:44:38
have to have kind of a nuanced conversation to give people all the necessary depth and context to feel
00:44:42
better informed to make a better decision because you know there's always this kind of gripping fear that if
00:44:48
something's off and I'm getting you know poison or I'm getting bad medicine or you know people are trying to make money
00:44:53
off me people immediately react negatively and angrily and they want to kind of resolve to a blanket position I
00:44:59
don't think that that's healthy so I'd love to have a deeper debate on that but the reason we didn't go into it is
00:45:04
because we didn't we had limited time with him and we wanted to take our time kind of giving him a chance to talk
00:45:09
about the overview of topics and getting his point of view across the the set of topics that we generally
00:45:15
thought were going to be relevant in this election cycle so that's and that was with two hours we still didn't have
00:45:20
enough time you could talk for two hours about vaccine could I address the conspiracy theorist Point yeah sure so
00:45:26
first of all that that label conspiracy theorist doesn't pack the punch that it used to as you'll recall anyone who
00:45:32
thought the virus might have come from the Wuhan lab was once called a conspiracy theorist
00:45:37
if you believed that fauci and the NIH were funding gain of function research that was dubbed a conspiracy theory if
00:45:44
you believe that cloth Mass didn't do anything that was a conspiracy theory if you believe that Hunter Biden was
00:45:50
getting paid off by Foreign governments that was a conspiracy theory so this accusation just doesn't really pack the
00:45:57
same punch anymore not having a relationship with the Russians in this family meeting with the Russians
00:46:01
multiple times yeah that's still a conspiracy theory um but in any events my point is it doesn't
00:46:08
pack the same punch in fact in some cases it's starting to become a badge of honor so that's one thing the second
00:46:13
thing is when you listen to him make his arguments he's not just alleging certain
00:46:18
things he's laying out his evidence right he's he's connecting dots he's explaining the causation and you can
00:46:25
disagree with it but he is thinking in terms of like causation and it made me think about something that Peter Thiel
00:46:33
once said about you know Founders being Asperger's where he flipped it on his head and said what is it about our
00:46:38
society that talks Founders out of all of their contrarian ideas unless they are a little bit Asperger's ah
00:46:45
interesting what is it about our political system and our media that talks people out of seeing causation
00:46:52
unless they are a little bit of a conspiracy theorist and what I mean by that is
00:46:57
look at San Francisco okay all you have to do is walk down the street and you can see that things have gone totally
00:47:04
off the rails and whatever we've done politically is not working and yet the voters in San Francisco just like
00:47:10
completely block that out they don't see any causation between the way they vote
00:47:15
at the city level or at the state level and the policies that are manifest on our streets they just don't see any
00:47:21
causation there and you can just play that movie over and over again our Elites don't see
00:47:28
any causation between the way they ran the country and the election of Donald Trump the fact that we hauled out our
00:47:34
Manufacturing in the Rust Belt by throwing open our markets to China exporting our jobs to China the way that
00:47:41
we squander all this money in the forever Wars of the Middle East regards to what your views are on those policies
00:47:47
it's pretty obvious to me that they helped cause the rise of Donald Trump and yet you just can't get the media to
00:47:53
see any causation between the policies they endorse and the inevitable reaction to them and so the way I see this is
00:48:01
that our political analysis certainly our mainstream media they're just completely bereft of seeing any
00:48:07
causation between policies and the problems in our society and so Along Comes RFK Jr and he's willing to
00:48:16
actually connect dots now you may not agree with all the dotsies connecting but maybe it takes it the same way maybe
00:48:22
it takes a little bit of an Asperger's founder to stick with their contrarian idea so they don't get talked out of it
00:48:28
maybe it takes a guy like Robert F Kennedy Jr not to get talked out of these things that he believes
00:48:35
some of which I think are just obviously true at the one of the selling points he
00:48:39
made was just Hey listen farmer spends an awful lot on Advertising the media is dependent on that advertising they don't
00:48:46
seem to criticize it all that much maybe that's something we should look into now
00:48:50
I don't think that like Pfizer is writing the script for Anderson Cooper but you can be sure that if Pfizer
00:48:55
didn't like something Anderson Cooper said there's somebody they could call at CNN and say something to and have a
00:49:01
conversation about you know setting the record straight whatever however you would frame it speaking of CNN right and
00:49:07
oh wait don't leave that point before I thought it was a really interesting part
00:49:11
of the conversation when he mentioned that he had been friends way back with Roger Ailes and Roger L specifically
00:49:17
told him yes that they could not post certain or televise certain content if it was too critical of Pharma companies
00:49:24
because they were the number one Advertiser yeah and should farmer companies even be
00:49:28
advertising so then all of a sudden let's say it was a conspiracy theory or he is like way out there in terms of his
00:49:34
belief but the fact is it does bring up the point should we actually be letting Pharma companies advertise on television
00:49:41
or on news programs maybe they shouldn't be allowed to be on news before it's not
00:49:45
like it's not like the consumer who watches the ads and go out and buy the drug as you prescribed by a doctor they
00:49:50
can ask their doctor about it yeah all right well speaking of CNN there was an absolute train wreck of a
00:49:57
presidential Town Hall with a moderator named Caitlin Collins I don't recognize her name I don't know if
00:50:04
she has a show on CNN but I saw the clips from it I couldn't find the full debate but my Lord was this that's
00:50:12
unbelievable it's unbelievable it was unbelievable he got a standing ovation he absolutely owned her on every
00:50:19
question all of her questions were about you know January 6th you know all of them are valid but none
00:50:27
of them were about running the country essentially and uh he was hilarious at least to this
00:50:35
audience and he CNN staffers are really upset that they did this that they gave him that they
00:50:44
platformed him which shows you exactly where they stand they're upset I guess they thought they
00:50:49
could own him and they didn't did you guys see the part where he was talking about the trial and he's like and she
00:50:56
has a cat named vagina I mean it was surreal and I just thought to myself is this going to be for the
00:51:04
next year and a half we're going to have these town halls and then I thought oh he's going to get elected is it true
00:51:08
that EJ and Carol has a cat named vagina I have no idea but I mean it was that was a pretty vicious section and then I
00:51:14
got the sense that CNN's management wants this this is like a ratings Bonanza for them and I think they
00:51:22
secretly want him Freeburg said it it's so true he's so entertaining I could not
00:51:27
stop laughing I watched him on CNN and I was like man it's it's like uh one of your one of your old TV shows that you
00:51:35
don't really remember watching a lot of and it comes back on and you're like he's so ridiculous the things he says
00:51:40
it's true because when he first got when he first got elected I was so afraid and
00:51:44
then you realize he this guy's just an Entertainer really he's a terrible politician Bill Barr said that or yeah
00:51:50
did you see the bar interview yeah the bar clip that I shared is just bananas about Trump but so he's a showman and
00:51:55
he's a great showman you know he's entertaining and you realize that he was that's all he's ever really wanted to be
00:52:00
was like famous and popular and on television and and he got all of those things and he took it to the to the most
00:52:08
infinite level what Bill Barr said was most insightful that it's chaos when he actually tries to get things done he
00:52:14
can't get things done right and he'll tell you all the things that you want to hear that he wants to that you want to
00:52:22
see get done he did this to Peter Thiel and Peter Thiel spoken about this publicly so I'm not saying anything
00:52:28
not a line here I don't know if this is something that's on the record or not but it was publicly stated that Peter
00:52:35
was disappointed that Trump did not get the things done that he said he was going to get done and I think that's
00:52:39
really what what he does is he incites he entertains he gets people engaged he knows what you want to hear he sells you
00:52:46
on it he cripples The Establishment which everyone feels treated poorly by that everyone feels held backed by that
00:52:53
everyone feels has taken something from them that isn't giving something to them
00:52:56
and then he says you know what I'm going to fix all that for you and then you get
00:53:00
excited by it and then all of a sudden he doesn't actually deliver it and four years have gone by and we've forgotten
00:53:05
about it and he's come back in and he's kind of you know titillating again so I think I think the reality is he's got
00:53:12
a real shot at getting reelected here oh my God here's what I wanted pretty amazing I'll go around the horn I'll
00:53:17
start with you I mean he said January 6 was like a beautiful day he said that everybody in the Republican
00:53:27
Party who said he lost the election is wrong and that the election was in fact stolen like he literally doubled down on
00:53:33
every single thing right so at the end of this he gets his Standing Ovation in New Hampshire
00:53:39
so how did CNN pick that audience did they do that on purpose did they know that
00:53:44
was going to be the outcome but at the end of the day after that does that increase his chances of winning the
00:53:51
Republican nomination and the presidency in your mind sacks yes of course it does
00:53:55
why look well look I mean Donald Trump showed that he's a force of nature he's a wrecking ball he went into CNN's
00:54:04
carefully laid trap where he's not just up against Caitlyn Collins make no mistake she's got an earpiece in her ear
00:54:10
with all of CNN's researchers and hosts and producers they're all for us exactly and he basically demolished sure
00:54:20
he controlled the interview he had the crowd laughing when he wanted them to laugh
00:54:24
responding the way he wanted them to respond and to the point now where the CNN staffers are like oh my God what did
00:54:32
we do an AOC was basically you know ringing her hands about how how could CNN platform him this way
00:54:38
so so look he gave No Quarter whatsoever like you said he doubled down on everything he tripled down and he showed
00:54:46
his ability to kind of Bend reality to his will so all the strengths of trump that being
00:54:52
said I'm sure that Trump and his campaign were delighted with what happened last night because I do think
00:54:56
it makes him more likely to be the nominee I think first and foremost I think Republicans want a candidate who
00:55:04
will fight the media and their fake narratives and lies no matter how many lies Trump tells they think the media is
00:55:10
the bigger liar and they want someone who is willing to step in the Lion's Den and take them on and he is incredibly
00:55:16
adroit and quick on his feet and DeSantis is imploding so what would any of them do yeah just
00:55:26
be fair the same as clearly as the underdog okay but just give the guy a chance because we haven't seen what he
00:55:30
can do yet but there's no question that Trump showed an adroitness and a willingness to counter punch and fight
00:55:37
back that they base the Republican base definitely responds to now yeah so we know we know that Trump is happy with
00:55:44
the debate I think the other party that is super happy with this debate is Biden
00:55:49
and all of his people because as much as that debate helped Trump in the Republican primary it did nothing for
00:55:55
him in the general I don't think like you said Jason he doubled down on January 6. the campaign ads right
00:56:01
themselves okay they're going to show footage of January 6 with a tear gas and the riots being beaten people being shot
00:56:08
people pushing down the barricades and they're going to do a narrative a voiceover with Trump saying it was a
00:56:13
beautiful day the people there had love in their life itself yeah it writes itself and then you know he doubled down
00:56:19
really strongly on Roe v Wade that was crazy being overturned he's like yeah that was I mean I don't have his quote
00:56:25
which again I think it doesn't hurt him in the Republican primary but it's you know it it will lead to a campaign
00:56:30
attack at in in the general and there are other issues as well okay so so the Biden campaign is super happy right now
00:56:36
because I think the only Republican he could beat is Trump I think the reverse is true for Trump I think the only
00:56:41
Democrat who Trump could beat as Biden I mean they are both two of the most unpopular
00:56:47
candidates in America in a general election so they love the fact they're going to be facing each other but you
00:56:53
know who doesn't is the American people two-thirds American people don't want this choice they say they're already
00:56:58
fatigued by it and they're only going to get more fatigued by it because I think
00:57:02
for the next like you said 18 months we're going to have the Trump show with him taking on the media and that plays
00:57:08
into Biden's hands because Biden doesn't need to campaign he'll just let Trump and the media beat each other up he'll
00:57:14
do a Rose Garden campaign where once a week he goes in front of the microphones and responds to whatever Trump's latest
00:57:19
outrage is he doesn't have the Vigor to campaign and he won't and then we'll just see where the chips land I think
00:57:25
that it's it's quite possible here that after 18 months of trump and the media beating each other up the American
00:57:31
people just say you know what this Biden guy is totally senile but I'm like so tired of the the Trump show I've got
00:57:36
Trump fatigue again I'm just gonna have to go with Biden and I think I think this is how Biden gets reelected this is
00:57:43
a disaster for American the fact that we are putting Biden who's in clearly in cognitive decline and Trump as the two
00:57:52
candidates again the two candidates nobody wants makes me think this is just like a complete disaster for America can
00:58:00
we not find two other candidates chamoth what did you think coming out of is stand up special on CNN the Trump
00:58:08
Town Hall stand up special I think that I'm more surprised by the fact that the big Republican Mega donors have taken a
00:58:16
big step back away from DeSantis I thought that if the money train on the Republican side picked DeSantis
00:58:24
that it would be very difficult for Trump to overcome it but he's managed to somehow fade that
00:58:31
bullet too he's like Neo in the matrix it's like you have these guys shooting bullets at this guy and he just keeps
00:58:37
somehow finding a way to evade them but this week 's main point on that I was just going
00:58:44
to say well Schwartzman step back Ken Griffin basically has gone silent so there's a lot of guys that came close to
00:58:51
him and this is what I've maintained which is I think DeSantis ages poorly you know he's best before you actually
00:58:58
spend time with him and the more time people seem to spend and again this is just evidenced by these big Republican
00:59:04
Mega donors they don't seem to be running towards this guy they seem to be at least saying we're going to head yeah
00:59:10
they're waiting Friedberg any thoughts and then I'll go back to you okay you went for like 10 minutes
00:59:17
any thoughts on it in terms of is this make him more electable do you think he's going to win
00:59:23
for sure got to tell you the CNN thing yeah yes post CNN you think do you think he's
00:59:28
gonna win you think he beats Biden the crazy polling data is that Biden had you know 20 of the votes going to
00:59:36
RFK Jr who's like a nobody no one knows candidate and he's beating a sitting president in his own party so that says
00:59:43
a lot about you know how much support Biden has and I think that Trump is going to be pretty appealing as the
00:59:50
anti-biting candidate I mean Biden was the anti-trump candidate and now turns the anti-viding candidate and right now
00:59:56
he looks like he's Dynamic and he was uh a big shift I think RFK Jr feels a lot like a trump candidate to me too I mean
01:00:06
you know some of the positioning and the statements and the way he talks and being anti-establishment he could also
01:00:11
have that appeal I think there's a non-zero chance Biden actually doesn't run for re-election at
01:00:17
this point play that out I can play that out that's a really scary scenario because I think that's how he got a
01:00:21
president Newsome listen I mean Newsom is warming up in the bullpen right now and he's not just
01:00:27
you know hanging out back there and you know spitting Shaw he's pitching fastballs very noisily he's been running
01:00:33
TV ads he's been going to Florida he's been picking fights you know well outside of his State he is basically
01:00:40
telling the Democratic party putting me in the game Coach and he's just waiting for the signal to go he he needs to know
01:00:47
from democratic party insiders in the establishment that he can go he doesn't want to risk throwing away his career
01:00:53
challenging Biden but if Biden becomes too weak to run and he gets the signal to go he'll go and he can raise a lot of
01:01:01
money and I'm going to explain sorry can you can you guys just explain both of you like how does that actually like
01:01:07
what do you guys think happens like there's a press conference that where Biden says he's retiring I think he said
01:01:14
after careful thought and consideration I've made the decision that at my age I'd like to spend more time with my
01:01:20
family and not continue this Hefty responsibility and I'd love to see someone else take the mantle and I think
01:01:26
that that will result you know from a series of polls that will indicate that he may not have a shot
01:01:33
if he continues this campaign I think that I'm not saying that's a certainty I think that's a non-zero chance right now
01:01:38
that that scenario plays out when that does play out to Sax's point it's probably not just news then but there's
01:01:44
probably half a dozen and likely a dozen folks that pop their head up and want to
01:01:48
get not just kind of have a real run at the presidency on the Democratic side but probably end up saying I want to
01:01:53
heighten people's awareness of me and so on and they all run on that on that ticket but the DNC might be having a
01:02:00
real tough conversation in the next couple of months about how Biden's pulling and whether he really is the
01:02:05
right candidate to have on the ticket so let's see let me give you a historical example so I mentioned this I think when
01:02:11
RFK Jr was on the Pod but LBJ was the sitting Democratic president in 1968 and he went into the New Hampshire primary
01:02:17
and he won the New Hampshire primary but not by a big enough margin and a few weeks later he announced he was leaving
01:02:23
the race because of health reasons but the specific Challenger who helped knocked him out of New Hampshire was
01:02:28
Gene McCarthy and then after that happened Bobby Kennedy got in the race so we could have a situation here where
01:02:36
it's Bobby Kennedy Jr is you know initially playing the gene McCarthy role of being kind of the anti-war
01:02:43
protest candidate who helps knock Biden out of the race and then who knows I mean
01:02:50
Gavin Newsom they're going to want to come in into the race at that point but remember you know the thing the thing
01:02:56
that happened in early 1968 that caused LBJ to leave the race is you had the Tet
01:03:01
Offensive and Cronkite got back from Vietnam saying the war cannot be won and then at
01:03:07
that point it was like game over well look this Ukrainian counter offense of zelinski just announced today that they
01:03:12
need more time so we've been hearing for months if not a year that you're going to have a big Ukrainian counteroffensive
01:03:19
in the spring summer of this year and Ukraine is going to win this war and instead it looks like it's being
01:03:23
destroyed Ukraine is so this war is turning into a debacle I think it could be an even worse debacle by the end of
01:03:30
the year the economy has a banking crisis going on it's turning into a big Fiasco so I think it's very possible
01:03:36
that Biden could announce that it's time for him to step aside and you could see
01:03:40
the floodgates open for Newsom or JB pritzker or something like that however let me just say this I think the odds of
01:03:46
Biden leaving the race went down significantly as a result of last night because all of the political people
01:03:53
around Biden are saying we know how to win this thing we just a b tested the strategy in the midterms remember we had
01:04:00
three quarters of the American people in the midterms think that we're ready in a
01:04:04
recession and um and now the country was on the wrong track and the out-of-power party
01:04:10
is supposed to gain seats and the Red Wave turned into a puddle why because Biden's strategy of saying democracy was
01:04:16
on the ballot and running against January 6. it actually worked I'm not saying I bought that argument but enough
01:04:21
Independents did Independence ended up breaking for Biden and the Democrats Republicans didn't but Independence did
01:04:29
so Independents have bought that argument in the midterms in and Trump again if he's the nominee they're going
01:04:35
to run that same Playbook now it's not guaranteed to work I think this thing's going to be a nail biter I think it's
01:04:41
going to be a toss-up if it's buying versus Trump but I think that Biden's people have to feel very good about this
01:04:47
matchup because they feel like they already know how to run this campaign this is what he said about Roe v Wade it
01:04:52
was such a great victory I mean can you imagine how that's going to play with Women Voters they're just
01:05:00
gonna be like yeah no it was not a great Victory you took away our right to choose for ourselves well definitely
01:05:06
definitely Democratic Women Voters will not like it but there's a lot of Republican Women Voters that that will
01:05:11
support that state here let me give you this 30 let me give you this data of the
01:05:15
country so take a look at this I I don't think you're right Jason I just shared with you kind of the Reuters polling
01:05:21
data the most recent one and the number one issue at 24 of likely voters that they care about is the economy 24 number
01:05:30
two is crime at 14 number three is immigration at nine percent number four is inequality at six percent and on and
01:05:36
on and on only when you get down to like number 10 you get to abortion which comes in at three percent two percent of
01:05:43
Democrats one percent or you know three percent four percent of Democrats one percent of Republicans yeah but what is
01:05:48
the margin of the election well I don't think that that's the issue that breaks it I think there's other things that
01:05:52
there's significant differences on particularly around crime and immigration inequality that are pulling
01:05:58
much higher in terms of importance to likely voters do they drive turnout like abortion does
01:06:03
I don't know I'm just I'm just thinking these numbers it's like you know one to three percent of people saying it
01:06:08
matters to them is not that significant I think these other topics are going to be very divisive and very different uh
01:06:14
very polar different than what people say in a poll and what people turn out to vote for like for some people that is
01:06:20
a major issue but who knows I think it's a toss-up basically look I like I said I
01:06:26
think the only candidate that Biden could beat is Trump and Biden's probably the only sitting president that Trump
01:06:32
can beat so I mean again they're both it poll nationally in the mid 30s and this
01:06:37
is the choice we have I Gotta Give sacks his red meat I saw these uh Republicans
01:06:43
are going on a revenge tour here to uh go after the Biden family they said they would and they have so the oversight uh
01:06:52
house oversight committee reveals a guess nine Biden family members received wire transcripts from foreign Nationals
01:06:59
by shell corporations and they don't have any connections to Biden we know that Hunter was securing the bag
01:07:07
all over the planet he's clearly a grifter I don't think there's any doubt about that
01:07:12
what's the truth here and how much evidence do they have because this is obviously a partisan thing just like
01:07:18
there were partisan things on the other side when they were investigating Trump so how do you look at this information
01:07:23
this revelation they keep they're using this like fighting cried crime family meme
01:07:30
do you think this is actually evidence of something or is it just another Rich family with a bunch of llc's
01:07:37
another Rich family wait how do they get rich good question the Kennedys were a rich family yeah but the bidens were not
01:07:44
a rich family so how do they get rich their only business is they don't have money they don't know how much money is
01:07:50
actually here and how it's being what what evidence they have it's not red meat for me I just think the media
01:07:56
should have done its job investigating the story properly and what this investigation has turned up is that
01:08:01
there's a lot of members of the buying family I think they're up to like 10 or 12 or something we've received payments
01:08:06
flowing from foreign governments no one can tell you what any of those people did in exchange for the money it does
01:08:13
appear to be an influence peddling operation I don't know whether that's influence paddling operation so people
01:08:19
were giving money again the the point is that why would you give money to members
01:08:23
of the buy-in family it presumably for some sort of access to the person who's been in Washington for 50 years did they
01:08:31
know who gave the money is it China is it Ukraine do they have that data well I think we know about barisma which is a I
01:08:37
see it going to Hunter yeah yeah and then I think China is another one now I don't know what the quid pro quo
01:08:45
is for that money but I wonder if this is like the Kraken or if this was actually reality because they seem to be
01:08:50
short on actual facts I think they got a lot there but I mean they're putting out
01:08:54
all these reports but listen I think to me the the actually the bigger story or the bigger Scandal
01:09:00
is just more details on the way that the security State wrote that fake letter basically calling the honor buying story
01:09:08
Russian disinformation there's an email now that just came out where Mike Morrell is corresponding with John
01:09:14
Brennan and Morel specifically says we're creating the letter to give Biden a talking point in the debate they're
01:09:21
the former CI directors right yeah exactly both of them were Ciara directors at different points so there's
01:09:25
no question now that that letter where 51 Security State officials claimed that the hunter bind story is
01:09:33
Russian deformation that was all basically a political dirty trick and dirty tricks happen but I don't think
01:09:39
the CIA should be involved that's the thing I don't think the the branches of our
01:09:45
government should be involved in helping to get any candidates these guys they're former but foreign
01:10:04
so that was another thing that came out well that's what bothers me more than anything is I do not think our permanent
01:10:10
government especially security agencies should be involved in partisan politics they really need to stay out that is
01:10:17
election meddling that bothers me that's a form of corruption that I think is even worse
01:10:22
than monetary payments take out can you tell us about your trip to the Middle East what have you been doing there so
01:10:28
our bestie Brad gerstner was coming here and we were at the poker game A couple weeks ago maybe a month ago and he said
01:10:33
he was going and I've always wanted to come to UAE and I've never seen Dubai or Abu Dhabi and so I said yeah I'd love
01:10:41
to go with you and we did a couple speaking gigs where are you staying so four seasons in Ritz Four Seasons in Abu
01:10:47
Dhabi and the Ritz here in Dubai and I was just going to do these three speaking gigs a podcast and isn't IFC in
01:10:55
Dubai incredible yeah I mean it's it's and it's all been built in the last 10 years I I would say
01:11:04
generally speaking what I'm super impressed about and I I'm not it's not a fundraising trip I was just going but
01:11:09
then uh one of your former employees chamoth set me up with a bunch of meetings because it's like hey there's a lot of
01:11:16
people who want to meet you so I I'm doing like a maybe a dozen meetings or so and there is
01:11:23
um a real this is a very Progressive place the the UAE of all the uh and Dubai obviously is very Progressive and
01:11:31
so it reminds me of like you know Silicon Valley in the early days where everybody's doing something and it's
01:11:36
incredibly Cosmopolitan there's only 500 000 Nationals but there's 10 million people here more so there are people
01:11:42
spoken than any other language in Dubai yeah I mean the number of people here from all around the world is Bonkers and
01:11:49
then everybody's working on something everybody's got a project and the people are delightful did you go
01:11:55
to the French restaurant I told you about in Abu Dhabi I did this question you got this ribeye did you get the
01:11:59
ribeye yeah we had like a family solving so I didn't get the ribeye but it was it
01:12:02
was exceptional the food's exceptional it's just like incredibly cost of pollen it's like going to New York
01:12:07
you know or London and they are there's a very unique moment in time right now sax when you go to Abu Dhabi and you
01:12:14
stand you stay at the Four Seasons in the adgm go to this French restaurant and order the rib eye it is a top five
01:12:21
steak I've ever had top five I've never been there I've never been to the Middle
01:12:24
East Side so delicious so delicious so delicious and in Dubai do not stay at the Ritz in IFC IFC is incredible but
01:12:32
the Ritz sucks stay at the Bulgari Hotel beautiful just beautiful but there's a very unique moment of time I literally
01:12:39
came down the elevator at the Four Seasons and I met four or five people from Silicon Valley in the lobby and
01:12:46
then I came out of dinner uh and there was a table of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and Venture capitalists it
01:12:52
is I mean it's basically like going to the Rosewood in in Abu Dhabi but what a statement that is
01:12:59
like the US is tapped out we are like broke that's I think basically the they are the way it's been explained to me is
01:13:07
they believe they have 20 years 30 years to convert the oil economy into a technology Capital allocator economy and
01:13:14
so they want to make Evergreen funds to invest they haven't had a chance to invest in Venture Capital because most
01:13:21
Venture Capital there weren't that many they were fully allocated and there was no opportunity now with what's happened
01:13:27
in the United States in this pullback and sort of the cycle starting over again I think there's an opportunity for
01:13:32
them to invest in some funds and start relationships and then you know we've had a long talk here about human rights
01:13:38
in different countries and it's not a monolith over here and I mean I don't know who needs to hear that exactly but
01:13:43
there there's these countries are very different very different I'm sure they appreciate your lectures on that subject
01:13:49
Jacob actually you know what's interesting we didn't have rushers on it but we had I've had multiple
01:13:53
conversations about these issues enjoy your lectures on this pod I Don't lecture about it I think these
01:14:00
are important issues that people discuss and the serious thing is a number of these countries are majority
01:14:05
young people and they are reforming very quickly and rights are changing and so the question is
01:14:14
for you know all of us and uh for the world is do we collaborate and you know support as they
01:14:24
you know become more liberal and become more tolerant and they you know become more Western
01:14:30
basically and young people it's very Western here and the parties going on here are pretty much like the parties I
01:14:36
attended in LA or New York and so I think actually we're probably not as at least UAE and in a couple of countries
01:14:43
here are not as disparate as like we one might think I'm glad you did the trip because I'm glad
01:14:49
to hear you talking like that that there isn't an Us Versus Them point of view you know visiting and seeing the culture
01:14:55
and the intention of the people within the culture super important and I think it's it's
01:15:01
good that you did it so good to hear it I wanted to share the video that these guys did but let's do it next week I
01:15:06
think it's really it's worth it no the um the Lord of the Rings one that this guy did which is amazing wait what
01:15:14
there's a Lord of the Rings video no not with us not with us Jacob oh I don't want to watch it okay why would I want
01:15:19
to watch that yeah thank you Elvis yeah exactly a tiger video for the third time did you
01:15:27
see that yeah I took an outtake from the guy's video on Lord of the Rings we'll put the link in the show notes but this
01:15:34
guy made this incredible AI generated Wes Anderson does Lord of the Rings oh I did see that did you see how that was
01:15:41
amazing and uh the clip I'm using today as a background is is an outtake uh from
01:15:46
the trailer did you see it sax oh my God it's so funny the guy is incredible but I mean the creativity and
01:15:55
the potential with AI it's just so evident this guy talks about it on his website and on his Twitter feed he did
01:16:01
it in a couple of days he learned a bunch of new AI tools a lot of generative tools were integrated to make
01:16:07
this possible it's an amazing two minute piece of art that I think really speaks
01:16:12
to the creativity being Unleashed with AI again going back to this point about it
01:16:17
not just being about Job reduction and reductionism but it's really about unleashing new potential that we didn't
01:16:22
Envision before separately there'll be another I think we should talk about this next week but there's now this kind
01:16:27
of generative video game platform that's being demoed where you can instruct the video game intentions
01:16:33
and it generates a immersive video game experience for you on the fly with something we talked about a couple
01:16:38
episodes probably a couple months ago at this point something on this week in startups who showed a video game where
01:16:43
he made like you make 25 objects in the game it's really incredible in a certain
01:16:47
style and then you say I want to make more characters like that I want to make more backgrounds like that like you take
01:16:51
a Wes Anderson style whatever and it just generates them for you and it just keeps generating them for you so one
01:16:57
artist can make a palette for a game and you say I want to have a penguin in my game I want to have a zombie in my game
01:17:01
yeah that's exactly right yeah and it just does it and then people who are playing the game can say what they want
01:17:08
with prompts and it creates it and you can drive a storyline and then you can integrate with other people's story
01:17:13
lines I mean it's really powerful anyway I gotta run for David Friedberg David sacked here Heim your boy J Cal love you
01:17:22
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