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is anybody else seeing a half a second lag with jaycal or like a second line test test one two one two from like the
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way his mouth moves well that always happens oh God here it comes his mouth never stops moving black sex relaxed sex
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are we going are we recording are you ready to go this is a plus material all right let's
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go this is Chappelle at the punch line let's go let's go [Music] [Music] all right everybody Welcome to episode
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111 of the world's greatest podcasts according to slate the podcast that shall not be mentioned by the Press
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apparently you know what do you mean they just did a profile on us well they did this is the conundrum
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it's so much of a phenomenon that we're the number one business and the number one Tech podcast in the world hands down
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that the Press has a hard time giving us any Oxygen because they want to hate us
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they want to cover it you're saying they take the ideas but not the they don't want to cite it they don't want to cite
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it they don't want to cite it but anyway shout out to Slade yeah what I thought was interesting was the guy pointed out
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that we don't want to subject ourselves to Independent journalists asking us independent questions therefore we go
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direct and that that's kind of the the thing nowadays when everyone says they want to go direct it's because they
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don't want to be subject to Independent journalists well one might ask themselves why subjects don't want to go
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direct yeah exactly you mean don't want to go to journalists yeah because it there's a there's a specific reason why
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principles the subject of stories do not want to have the Press interpret what they're saying is because
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they don't feel they're getting a fair shake they feel like the challenge is that then we avoid independent scrutiny
00:02:02
of our points of view and our decisions they're constantly writing hip pieces about us the the question is when we
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want to present our side of it do we need to go through their filter or not why would you go through their filter
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when it's always going to be a hit piece right well I mean they have a class hatred
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of basically of Technology entrepreneurs and investors you're right Jake how they don't hate
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you because you genuflect to their political biases you see if if you do if you do what SPF did which is basically
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agree with all of their biases then yes they'll treat you better that's the deal
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that's how it works a specific large media outlets right she's not referring to Fox News
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okay you can name one I'll trade you I'll tell you what I'll trade you fox for MSNBC and CNN and the New York Times
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The Washington Post and the Atlantic Magazine on and on and on you get a lot of mileage out of being able to name Fox
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the fact of the matter is Megan Callie that's a podcaster she's independent now that's true you can name one I mean
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literally one Outlet that is not part of this you know mainstream media and they all think the
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same way there are very small differences the way they think that's true it's all about
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clicks uh at this point and it's all about journalism and advocacy well you're calling advocacy is bias and
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activism it's activism it's that's what I'm talking about activism journalism yes I think the Draymond also highlights
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a really important point which is you know he started his podcast it's become one of the most popular forms of sports
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media and he can speak directly without the filtering and you know classification that's done by the you
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know journalist and it seems to be a really powerful Trend the audience really wants to hear direct and they
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want to hear unfiltered Raw point of view and there and maybe there's still a role for I think the
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journalism separate from that which is to then scrutinize and analyze and question and it's not journalism to
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activism they're just activists there are also journalists out there sites right so actually well it depends
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what the topic is and what the outlet is right but I I actually I would argue that most of these journalists are doing
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what they're doing for the same reason that we're doing what we're doing which is they want to have some kind of
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influence because they don't get paid very much right but the way they have influence is to push a specific
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political agenda I mean they're activists they're basically artists become advocacy journalism yes that's
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the term I coin for it it's advocacy you guys see this brouhaha where Matt Iglesias wrote this article
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about the fed and about the debt ceiling and through this whole multi-hundred word thousand word
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tome he didn't understand the difference between a percentage point and the basis
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points yeah I did see that yeah wow so wait a second you're saying the fed's raising 25 percent
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that's a huge difference between my mortgage is coming up 25 between a principal and an outside analyst right
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like a principal has a better grasp typically of the topic than the material but you know the argument
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within the journalist Circle he's considered the conventional wisdom I get it but the argument from a journalist is
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that by having that direct access that person is also biased because they're an agent because they're a player on the
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field they do have a point of view and they do have a Direction they want to take things so it is a fair commentary
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that journalists can theoretically play a role which if they're an off-field analyst and that don't necessarily bring
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I would argue they're less educated and more biased than we are that may or may not be true what the two of you guys are
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debating which is a very subjective take but the thing that is categorical and you can't deny is that there is zero
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checks and balances when something as simple as the basis point percentage Point difference isn't caught in
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proofreading isn't caught by any editor isn't taught by the people that you know
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help them review this and so what that says is all kinds of trash must get through because there's no way for the
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average person on Twitter to police all of this nonsensical content this one was
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easy because it was so numerically illiterate that it just stood out but can you imagine the the number of
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unforced Errors journalists make today in their search for clicks that don't get caught out that may actually tip
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somebody to think a versus B that's I think the thing that's kind of undeniable right yeah
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there's a very simple test for this if you read uh the journalists writing about a topic you are an expert on
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whatever the topic happens to be you start to understand okay well on that story I'm reading
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that they understand about 10 or 20 or 30 percent of what's going on but then when you read stories that
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you're not involved in you know you read a story about Hollywood or I don't know
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pick an industry or a region you're not super aware of you're like okay well that must be 100 correct and the truth
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is journalists have access to them there is a name for it yeah it's called the Gelman Amnesia effect you just
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plagiarize Michael Crichton who came up with that yeah so you yeah no it's exactly right but I think it's worse
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than that it's because now the now the mistakes aren't being driven just by sloppiness or laziness or just a
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lack of expertise I think it's being driven by an agenda so just to give you an example on the Slate thing the Slate
00:07:39
article actually wasn't bad it kind of made us seem you know cool the sub headline was a close listen to all in
00:07:46
the infuriating fascinating safe space for silicon Valley's money men okay but the the headline changed so I don't know
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if you guys noticed this the headline now is Elon musk's Inner Circle is telling us exactly what it thinks first
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of all like they're trying for clicks yeah so they're trying way too hard to like describe Us in terms of Elon which
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you know is maybe two episodes out of 110 but before inner circle the word they used was cronies and then somebody
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edited it because I saw cronies in like one of those tweet you know summaries you know where like it does a
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capsule or whatever yeah yeah and those get Frozen in time so you know they were
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trying to bash us even harder and then somebody took another look at it and turned it down I'll tell you what
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happens in the editorial process whoever writes the article the article gets submitted maybe it gets edited proof
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read whatever maybe it doesn't even in some Publications they don't have the time for it because they're in a race
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then they pick there's somebody who's really good at social media they pick six or seven headlines they a B test
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them and they even have software for this where they will run a test sometimes they'll do a pay test they put
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five dollars in ads on social media whichever one performs the best that's the one they go with so it's even more
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cynical and because people who read the headlines sometimes they don't read the story
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right obviously most people just see the headline they interpret that as a story
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that's why I told you when they did that new Republic piece on you with that horrific monstrous monstrosity of an
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illustration don't worry about it people just read the headline they know you're important
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nobody reads the story anyway no but it wasn't a bad article actually it was well written actually I was in shock I
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was like who is this writer that actually took the time to write some prose that was actually decent yeah he
00:09:31
had listened to a lot of episodes clearly that was a really good moment actually that was great advice because
00:09:35
you gave it to him and you gave it to me because both of us had these things and
00:09:39
Jason said the same thing just look at the picture and if you're okay with the picture just move on and I thought this
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can't be true and it turned out to mostly be true yeah but my picture was terrible
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yeah but it's close to reality oh wow but that just shows how ridiculously biased it is right
00:10:07
Hugh Grant Elon let's pull that up one more time here Elon looks like Hugh Grant that's just kind of he does kind
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of not bad kind of looks like Hugh Grant and like Notting Hill I knew that article was going to be fine when the
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first you know item they presented as evidence of me doing something wrong was basically helping to oust chase a boudin
00:10:27
which was something that was supported by like 70 of San Francisco yeah which is a 90 Democratic City so not exactly
00:10:35
evidence of some you know right-wing movement look at the headline the quiet political rise of David sacks
00:10:42
silicon Valley's prophet of urban Doom I'm just letting you know people don't get past the sixth word in the image
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yeah that's 99 of people are like oh my God congrats on the you know Republic article it could have literally been
00:10:53
Laurel what do they call them uh Laurel lipsums you know like it could have just
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been filler words from their second graph down and nobody would know yeah but now apparently if you notice that
00:11:04
San Francisco streets look like you know Walking Dead that apparently you're a prophet of urban do I mean people are so
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out of touch I mean they can't even acknowledge what people can see with their own eyes that's the bias that's
00:11:16
gotten crazy and I don't know if you guys saw this really horrible dystopian video of an
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art gallery owner who's been dealing with owning a storefront in San Francisco which is challenging and
00:11:29
having to clean up feces and you know trash and whatever uh every day and I guess the guy snapped
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and he's hosing down a homeless person who refuses to leave the front of a store
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oh I saw that I saw just like the humanity in this is just insane like really like you're hosing a human being
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down it's terrible who is obviously not living a great life and is you know I can feel for both of them I agree that
00:12:01
it's not good to hose a human being down on the other hand think about the sense
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of frustration that store owner has because he's watching his business go in the toilet because he's got homeless
00:12:11
people living in front of him so they're both like being mistreated the homeless
00:12:15
person say more the the homeless person is being mistreated the Stormer is being
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mistreated by the city of San Francisco yeah is not in a privileged position that
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person probably the store owner the store owner he's probably fighting to stay in business I'm just saying I'm not
00:12:33
saying that's right but no no I'm laying the Rope you're trying to do what you're trying
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to do is oh my God look at this this homeless person being horribly oppressed no that store owner is a victim too
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oh yeah there's no doubt it's horrible to run a business what is that person supposed to do no wait this is this is
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symbolic of the breaking down of basic Society like these both of these people are obviously like it's just a horrible
00:13:03
moment to even witness it's like oh he it's like something Jason do you have equal empathy for the store owner and
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the homeless person or no under no circumstances should you hose a person down in the face who is homeless
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like it's just horrific to watch it's just inhumane this is a human being now but as a person who owns a store yeah my
00:13:24
dad grew up in the local business if people were abusing The Story You're trying to make a living and you've got
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to clean up you know whatever excrement every day which is terrific yes and this
00:13:34
is dystopian look in that moment the empathy is not equal I think you have more empathy obviously for the person on
00:13:41
the receiving end of that hose okay but in general our society has tons of empathy for homeless people we spend
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billions of dollars trying to solve that problem you never hear a thing about the
00:13:53
store owners who are going out of business so on a societal level you know not in that moment but in general the
00:14:00
lack of empathy is for these middle class store owners who may not be middle class working class who are struggling
00:14:07
to stay afloat and you look at something like what is it like a quarter or a third of the store fronts instead
00:14:13
Francisco are now vacant the city yes this person is running the shocking thing is like this person is running an
00:14:20
art gallery storefront in San Francisco like why would you even bother why would
00:14:24
you bother to have a storefront in San Francisco I mean everybody's left it's just what do you mean why do you bother
00:14:28
if you soap into stores so what are you supposed to start to code all of a sudden well no I mean you would shut it
00:14:34
down at some point and find an exit and do it has large fixed costs right 10 years ago exactly at some point you
00:14:43
have to shut down your story in San Francisco the second you can get out of the solution to everything jcal isn't go
00:14:48
to coding school online and then you know I didn't say it was I'm just but moving to another city is a possibility
00:14:53
oh true a lot of folks in Silicon Valley I think in this weirdly [ __ ] up way do
00:14:58
believe the solution to everything is learn to code or it's an Uber driver yeah get a gig job get a gig years the guy
00:15:07
spent years building his retail business I mean the thing is English person camps
00:15:11
in front and the homeless and he calls the the police the police don't come and move the homeless person the homeless
00:15:16
person stays there he asks nicely to move customers are uncomfortable going into store as a result yeah I stopped
00:15:20
going to certain stores in my neighborhood because of homeless tents being literally fixated in front of the
00:15:25
store and I go to the store down the road to get my groceries or whatever like I mean it's not a kind of uncommon
00:15:30
situation for a lot of these small business owners they don't own the real estate they're paying rent uh they've
00:15:35
got high labor costs you know everything's inflating generally city populations declining it's a brutal
00:15:40
situation all around I think if everybody learns to code or drives an Uber the problem is
00:15:47
that in the absence of things like local stores and small businesses you hollow out communities
00:15:53
you've got these random detached places where you kind of live and then you sit in your house which becomes a prison
00:15:59
while you order food from an app every day I don't think that is the society that people want so I don't know I kind
00:16:05
of want small businesses to exist and I think that the homeless person should be
00:16:10
taken care of but the small business person should have the best chance of trying to be successful because it's
00:16:14
hard enough as it is the the mortality rate of the of the small business owner is already 90 percent
00:16:21
it's impossible in San Francisco let's just be honest I'm not trying to push people listen
00:16:27
yeah you are because here here's something I'm saying the guy I'm just shocked that the guy even has a
00:16:33
storefront I would have left alone you're showing a tweet that's a moment in time and you're not showing the 10
00:16:37
steps that led up to it oh a thousand steps five times he called the police station
00:16:44
customers the stuff that free burgers were just talking about or maybe there was physical conflict that we didn't see
00:16:49
in that you know and he's resolving it man it's really hard to look at these videos and know what's going on it's
00:16:55
awful to see but man we don't know it's the whole thing actually you want to know another reason why we can't solve
00:17:00
this problem this is the language we use around it the fundamental problem here is not homeless no it's addiction it's
00:17:06
addiction because and it's mental illness shellenberger's done the work it's like he said 99 of the people he
00:17:12
talks to it's either mental illness or addiction but we keep using this word homeless to describe the problem right
00:17:18
but the issue here is not the lack of of housing although that's a separate at problem in California but it's basically
00:17:24
the lack of of treatment totally so we should be calling them treatmentless and mandates around this because and
00:17:29
enforcement you you cannot you can't have a super drug be available for a nominal price and give people
00:17:38
you know a bunch of money to come here and take it and not enforce it you have to draw the line that's at fentanyl I'm
00:17:43
sorry fentanyl is a super drug there's three Alternatives is mandated rehab mandated mental health uh or jail or you
00:17:53
know Housing Services if you're not breaking the law you don't have mental illness you don't have drug addiction
00:17:57
and then provide those are the four Paths of outcome here of success and if all four of those paths were both
00:18:03
mandated and available in abundance this could be a attractable problem unfortunately the man the Mandate I mean
00:18:11
you guys remember that Kevin Bacon movie where Kevin Bacon was locked up in a mental institution but he wasn't like
00:18:18
he wasn't mentally ill it's a famous story you guys someone's probably gonna call
00:18:26
me an idiot for for messing this whole thing up but I think um there's a there's a story
00:18:32
where mandated Mental Health Services like locking people up to take care of them when they
00:18:40
have mental uh mental health issues like this became kind of inhumane and a lot of the institutions were shut
00:18:47
down and a lot of the laws were overturned and there are many of these cases that happened where they came
00:18:52
across as like torturous to what happened to people that weren't mentally ill and so the idea was like let's just
00:18:57
development yeah well that's another one right and it's unfortunate but I think that
00:19:04
there's some you know we talk a lot about nuance and gray areas but there's certainly some solution here that isn't
00:19:09
black or white it's not about not having mandated Mental Health Services and it's
00:19:13
not about locking everyone up that has some slight problem but there's some solution here that needs to be crafted
00:19:18
uh where you know you don't let people suffer and you don't let people suffer both as the
00:19:24
the victim on the street but also talking about a 5150 I think like when people are held but because they're a
00:19:31
danger to themselves or others kind of thing right but Jacob think about the power of language here if we refer to
00:19:36
these people as untreated persons instead of homeless persons and that was the coverage 24 7 in the media is this
00:19:43
is an untreated person the whole policy prescription would be completely different we'd realize there's a
00:19:48
shortage of treatment we'd realize there's a shortage of Remedies related to getting people in treatment as
00:19:54
opposed to building housing but why why and laws that mandate it that don't enable it because if you don't mandate
00:20:01
it then you enable the free reign and the free living on the street and the open drug markets and all this sort of
00:20:07
stuff there's a really easy test for this if it was if it was yourself and you were addicted
00:20:14
or if it was a loved one it's one of your immediate family members would you want yourself or somebody else to be
00:20:19
picked up off the street and held with a 5150 or whatever code involuntarily against their will because they were a
00:20:27
danger would you want them to be allowed to remain on the street would you want yourself if you were in that Dire
00:20:31
Straits and the answer of course is you would want somebody what's interesting policy perspective on this Jake house so
00:20:38
let me ask you as our uh our Die Hard liberal on the show no I'm not a die-hard liberal no no he's an
00:20:43
independent only votes for Democrats please get it right 75 of the time I voted Democrat 25 right independent of
00:20:49
us are Democrats okay 25 Republicans is it not that your individual liberties are infringed upon if you were to be
00:20:55
quote picked up and put away you know my position on it is if you're not thinking
00:20:59
straight uh you're in you're high on fentanyl you're not thinking for yourself and you you could lose the
00:21:05
liberty for a small period of time 72 hours a week you know especially if you're a danger to somebody you know
00:21:12
yourself or other people and in this case if you're on fentanyl if you're on meth you're you're a danger I mean I
00:21:18
think if more I think if some people have that if more people have that point of view and have that debate as sax is
00:21:22
saying in a more open way you could get to some path to resolution on just not in San Francisco it's not how it
00:21:28
happened so you guys know this we won't say who it is but someone in my family has some
00:21:35
pretty severe mental health issues and the problem is because they're an adult you can't get
00:21:42
them to get any form of treatment whatsoever right right do you only have the nuclear option and
00:21:49
the nuclear option is you basically take that person to court and try to seize their power of attorney which is
00:21:54
essentially saying that you know individual liberties are gone yeah and by the way it is so unbelievably
00:22:00
restrictive what happens if you lose that power of attorney and somebody else has it over you
00:22:06
it's just a huge burden that the legal system makes extremely difficult and the throttle law is a
00:22:14
backstop you know if the person's committing something illegal like camping out or doing fentanyl math
00:22:19
whatever you can use the law as the backstop you know all that person can do is really get
00:22:25
arrested even that is not a high enough bar to actually get power of attorney over somebody the other thing that I
00:22:30
just wanted you guys to know I think you know this but just a little historical context is
00:22:35
a lot of this crisis in mental health started because Reagan defunded all the psychiatric hospitals he emptied them in
00:22:42
California and that compounded because for whatever reason his ideology was that these
00:22:48
things should be treated in a different way and when he got to the presidency one of the things that he did was he
00:22:54
repealed the mental health I think it's called the mental health systems Act mhsa
00:23:00
which completely broke down some pretty Landmark legislation on mental health and it's and I don't think we've ever
00:23:05
really recovered and that we're now 42 years onward from 1980 but or 43 years onward but just something for you guys
00:23:12
to know that that's that's well that breaking had a lot of positives yeah but that's one definitely negative check in
00:23:18
my book against his legacy is his stance on Mental Health in general and what he
00:23:23
did to defund mental health well let me let me make a couple two points there so
00:23:27
I'm I'm not defending that specific decision there were a bunch of scandals in the 1970s and epitomized by the movie
00:23:33
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nestle Jack Nicholson about the conditions in these mental health homes and that did create
00:23:40
a Groundswell to change laws around that but I think this idea that like somehow
00:23:46
Reagan is to blame when he hasn't been in office for 50 years as opposed to the politicians who've been in office for
00:23:52
the last 20 years I just think it's letting them off the hook I mean Gavin Newsom 10 15 years ago when he was mayor
00:23:58
of San Francisco declared that he would end homelessness within 10 years he just
00:24:03
made another declaration like that as Governor so I just feel like not saying it's Reagan's fault I'm just saying it's
00:24:10
an interesting historical moment I think it's letting I think it's letting the politics Society needs to start thinking
00:24:15
about changing priorities we didn't have this problem of massive numbers of people living on the streets 10 15 years
00:24:22
ago it was a much smaller problem and I think a lot of it has to do with fentanyl the power of these drugs is
00:24:28
increased yes massively there's other things going on here so in any event I mean you can question
00:24:34
what Reagan did in light of current conditions but I think this problem really started in the last 10 15 years
00:24:40
yes like in in an order of magnitude bigger way these are super drugs until people realize like these are a
00:24:46
different class of drugs and they start treating them as such it's gonna just get worse
00:24:52
as far as I know Reagan didn't hand out to these addicts 800 a week to feed their addiction so they can live on the
00:25:00
street San Francisco that is the current policy of the city all I just wanted to just provide was
00:25:06
just that color that we had a system of funding for the mental health infrastructure
00:25:11
particularly local mental health infrastructure and we took that back and then we never came forward and all I was
00:25:18
saying is I'm just telling you I think that's part of the solution here is yeah we're going to have to basically build
00:25:25
up shelters we're going to build up and support the problem now for example is Gavin
00:25:31
Newsom says a lot of these things and now he's gone from a massive Surplus to a 25 billion dollar deficit overnight
00:25:40
which we talked about even a year ago because that was just the the law of numbers catching up with the state of
00:25:45
California and he's not in a position now to do any of this stuff so this one this problem may get worse well they did
00:25:52
they did appropriate I forget the number it's like 10 billion or something out of
00:25:55
that you know huge budget they had to solve the problem of homelessness so I would just argue they're not tackling it
00:26:00
in the right way because what happened is there's a giant special interest that formed around this problem which is the
00:26:07
the building industry who gets these contracts to build the quote you know affordable housing or this industrial
00:26:15
complex so they end up building 10 units at a time on Venice Beach like the most
00:26:22
expensive land you could possibly build because you get these contracts from the
00:26:26
government so there's now a giant special interest in lobby that's formed around this if you really want to solve
00:26:32
the problem you wouldn't be building housing on Venice Beach you'd be going to cheap land just outside the city
00:26:40
totally and you'd be building scale shelters I mean shelters that can house 10 000 people not ten and you'd be
00:26:48
having treatment services but with treatment built into them right you'll be solving this problem at scale
00:26:54
and that's not what they're doing by the way do I do you guys want to hear it this week in grift oh sure we're all
00:27:01
in that's a great example of grift I um I read something today in Bloomberg that
00:27:05
was unbelievable there's about two trillion dollars of debt owned by the developing world
00:27:12
that has been classified by a non-profit The Nature Conservancy in this case as eligible for what they called nature
00:27:19
swaps so this is two trillion of the umpteen trillions of debt that's about to get defaulted on by come countries
00:27:26
like Belize Ecuador Sri Lanka Seychelles you name it and what happens now are the
00:27:34
big bulge bracket Wall Street Banks and The Nature Conservancy goes to these countries and says listen
00:27:40
you know you have a billion dollar tranche of debt that's about to go upside down
00:27:46
and you're going to be in default with the IMF we'll let you off the hook and you know we will negotiate with
00:27:53
those bondholders to give them 50 cents on the dollar but in return you have to promise to
00:27:59
take some of that savings and you know protect the rain forest or protect a coral reef or protect some mangrove
00:28:06
trees all sounds good except then what these folks do is they take that repackage debt they call it
00:28:14
ESG they mark it back up and then they sell it to folks like BlackRock who have decided that they must own this in the
00:28:21
portfolio so it literally just goes from one sleeve of BlackRock which is now marked toxic Emerging Market debt and
00:28:29
then it gets into someone's 401K as ESG debt is that unbelievable so you convert
00:28:35
your signal and buy some ESG to make yourself feel good yeah two trillion dollars
00:28:40
ESG is that Exxon is like the number seven like top ranked company according to ESG and Tesla is even on the list
00:28:48
disastrous how crazy is that it's it's a complete game yeah all of those that we've said this many times but each of
00:28:57
those letters individually means so much and should be worth a lot to a lot of people but when you stick them together
00:29:03
it creates this toxic soup where you can just hide the cheese yeah I mean governance is important in
00:29:09
companies of course the environment is important social change is important I mean but why are these things grouped
00:29:16
together in this it just perverts it's an industry Jacob it's an industry absolutely all right Speaking of Chris
00:29:24
um Microsoft is going to put 10 billion dollars or something into chat GPT degenerate AI as I'm calling it now is
00:29:31
uh the hottest thing in soccer Valley the technology is incredible I mean you you can question the business model
00:29:37
maybe but the technology is pretty well I mean yeah so what I'd say is a 29 billion dollars for a company that's
00:29:43
losing a billion dollars on Azure credits a year that's one way to work at it that's also look at a lot of other
00:29:50
businesses that ended up being worth a lot down the road I mean sure you can model out the future of a business like
00:29:56
this and create a lot of really compelling big outcomes you know potentially yeah so Microsoft is close
00:30:03
to investing 10 million and open AI in a very convoluted transaction that people
00:30:07
are trying to understand it turns out that they might wind up owning 59 of open AI but get 75 percent of the
00:30:15
cashing properties back over time 49 49 yeah of open AI but they would get paid back the 10 million dollars over some
00:30:24
amount of time and this obviously includes Azure credits uh and chat GPT as everybody
00:30:33
knows this um just incredible demonstration of what AI can do in terms of text-based creation of content and
00:30:41
answering queries is taken the net by storm people are really inspired by it sax do you think
00:30:48
that this is a defensible real technology do you think this is like a crazy hype cycle
00:30:55
well it's definitely the next VC hype cycle everyone's kind of glomming on to this because VC really right now needs a
00:31:01
savior just look at the public markets everything we're investing in is in the toilet so we all really want to believe
00:31:06
that this is going to be the next wave and just because something is a vce hype cycle doesn't mean that it's not true so
00:31:15
as I think one of our friends pointed out you know mobile turned out to be very real I think cloud turned out to be
00:31:23
I'd say very real social was sort of real in the sense that did lead to a few big winners on the other hand web 3 and
00:31:33
crypto was a hype Cyclone it's turned into a big bust VR falls into the hype cycle it's probably a hype cycle so far
00:31:39
no one can even explain what web3 is in terms of AI I think that if I had to guess I would say the hype is real in
00:31:50
terms of its technological potential however I'm not sure about how much potential there is yet for VCS to
00:31:58
participate because right now it seems like this is something that's going to be done by really big companies so open
00:32:05
AI is basically a it looks like kind of a Microsoft proxy you've got Google I'm sure will develop it through their deep
00:32:12
mine asset you know I'm sure Facebook is going to do something huge in AI so what I don't
00:32:19
know is is this really a platform that starts gonna be able to benefit from I will say that
00:32:25
some of the companies we've invested in are starting to use these tools so I guess I guess where I am is I think
00:32:33
the technology is actually exciting I wouldn't go overboard on the valuations so I wouldn't buy into that level of the
00:32:40
hype but you think there could be hundreds of companies built around an API for something like chat gbt Dolly
00:32:48
maybe yeah I don't I don't think startups are going to be able to create the AI themselves but they might be able
00:32:54
to benefit from the apis maybe that's the thing that has to be proven out there's a lot of really fantastic
00:33:01
machine learning services available through Cloud vendors today right so as there has been one of
00:33:09
these kind of vendors and uh obviously open AI is building tools a little bit further down on the the stack
00:33:16
but there's a lot of tooling that can be used for specific vertical applications
00:33:19
obviously the acquisition of instabeat by bioentec is a really solid example and most of the big dollars that are
00:33:26
flowing in biotech right now are flowing into machine learning applications where
00:33:30
there's some vertical application of machine learning tooling and techniques around some specific problem set and the
00:33:36
problem set of mimicking human communication and doing generative media is a consumer
00:33:45
application set that has a whole bunch of really interesting product opportunities but let's not kind of be
00:33:50
blind to the fact that nearly every other industry and nearly every other vertical is being transformed today and
00:33:56
there's active progress being made in funding and getting liquidity on companies and progress with actual
00:34:03
products being driven by Machine learning systems and there's a lot of great examples of this so you know the
00:34:08
fundamental capabilities of large data sets and then using these kind of learning techniques in software and
00:34:16
statistical models to make kind of predictions and drive businesses forward in a way that they're not able to with
00:34:22
just human knowledge and human capability alone is really uh real and it's here today
00:34:29
and so I think let's not get caught up in the fact that there's this really interesting consumer Market hype cycle
00:34:34
going on where these tools are not being kind of you know validated and generating real value across many other
00:34:40
verticals and segments when you look at this Microsoft open aidl and you see something that's this convoluted hard to
00:34:47
understand what does that signal to you as a capital allocator and Company Builder I would put deals into two
00:34:54
categories one is easy and straightforward and then two is you know cute by half or you know the two heart
00:35:01
bucket this is clearly in that second category but it doesn't mean that is it in that
00:35:06
category well it doesn't mean that it won't work in our group chat with the rest of the guys one person said there's
00:35:13
a lot of complex law when you go from a non-profit to a for-profit there's lots of complexity in Deal construction the
00:35:22
original investors have certain things that they want to see there may or may not be you know legal
00:35:28
issues at play here that you encapsulated well in the last episode I think there's a lot of stuff we don't
00:35:34
know so I think it's important to just like give those folks the benefit of the doubt but yeah if you're asking me
00:35:41
it's in the too hard bucket for me to really take seriously now that being said it's not like I I got shown the
00:35:47
deal so I can't I can't comment here's what I will say the first part of what Sac said I think is really important for
00:35:54
entrepreneurs to internalize which is where can we make money the reality is that
00:36:01
well let me just take a prediction I think that Google will open source their models because the most important thing
00:36:10
that Google can do is reinforce the value of search and the best way to do that is to Scorch
00:36:17
the Earth with these models which is to make them widely available and as free as possible
00:36:22
that will cause Microsoft to have to catch up and that will cause Facebook to have to really look in the mirror and
00:36:29
decide whether they're going to cap the betting that they've made on AR VR and reallocate very aggressively to AI I
00:36:38
mentioned this in the I did this Lex Friedman podcast but that should be what Facebook does and and the reason is
00:36:45
if Facebook and Google and Microsoft have roughly the same capability in the same model
00:36:50
there's an element of machine learning that I think is very important which is called reinforcement
00:36:56
learning and specifically it's reinforcement learning from Human feedback right so these rlhf pipelines
00:37:01
these are the things that will make your stuff unique so if you're a startup you can build a
00:37:08
reinforcement learning pipeline how you build a product that captures a bunch of
00:37:12
usage we talked about this before that data set is unique to you as a company you can feed that into these models get
00:37:20
back better answers you can make money from it Facebook has an enormous amount of reinforcement learning inside of
00:37:26
Facebook every click every comment every like every share Twitter has that data set Google inside
00:37:34
of Gmail and search Microsoft inside of Minecraft and Hotmail so my point is David's right the
00:37:43
huge companies I think will create the substrates and I think they'll be forced to Scorch
00:37:51
the Earth and give it away for free and then on top of that is where you can make money and I would just encourage
00:37:57
entrepreneurs to think where is my Edge in creating a data set that I can use for reinforcement learning that I think
00:38:04
is interesting that's kind of saying I buy the ingredients from the supermarket but then I can still construct a dish
00:38:11
that's unique and you know the salt is there the pepper is there but how I use that will determine whether you like the
00:38:18
thing or not and I think that you know that is the way that I think we need to start thinking about it interestingly as
00:38:24
we've all pointed out here open AI was started as a non-profit the stated philosophy was this technology is too
00:38:31
powerful for any company to own therefore we're going to make it open source and then somewhere in the last
00:38:36
couple years they said well you know what actually it's too powerful for it to be out there in the public
00:38:41
we need to make this a private company and we need to get 10 billion dollars from Microsoft that is the the
00:38:49
disconnect I am trying to understand that's the most interesting part of the story Jason I think if you go back to
00:38:55
2014 is when Google bought deepmind yeah and immediately everyone started reacting to a company as powerful as
00:39:03
Google having a toolkit and a team as powerful as deepmind within them and that that sort of power should not sit
00:39:09
in anyone's hands I heard people that I'm close with that are close to the organization and the company comment
00:39:15
that they thought this is the most kind of scary threatening biggest threat to humanity uh is Google's control of deep
00:39:21
mind and that was a naive kind of point of view but it was one that was close that was deeply held by a lot of people
00:39:27
so Reid Hoffman Peter Thiel Elon Musk a lot of these guys funded the original kind of open AI business in 2015 and
00:39:34
here's the link so I'm putting it out here um you guys can pull up the original blog post do all those don't
00:39:39
people who donated get stock it was all in a non-profit and then the non-profit owned stock in a commercial
00:39:47
business now but your point is interesting because at the beginning the idea was instead of having Google on all
00:39:52
of this we'll make it all available and here's the the statement from the original blog post in 2015 open AI is a
00:39:59
non-profit AI research company our goal is to advance digital intelligence in the way that is most likely to benefit
00:40:04
Humanity as a whole unconstrained by a need to generate Financial return since our research is free from Financial
00:40:12
Obligations we can better focus on a positive human impact and they you know kind of went on and the whole thing
00:40:17
about Sam Greg Elon Reed Jessica Peter Thiel AWS YC are all donating to support open AI including donations and
00:40:26
commitments of over a billion dollars although we expect that to only be a tiny fraction of what we will spend in
00:40:33
the next few years which is a really interesting kind of if you look back historical perspective on
00:40:39
how this thing all started seven years ago and how quickly it's evolved as you point out
00:40:43
into the necessity to have a real commercial alignment to drive this thing forward without seeing any of these
00:40:49
models open sourced and during that same same period of time we've seen Google share Alpha fold and share a number of
00:40:57
tensorflow predictive models and and Tool kits and make them publicly available and put them in Google's cloud
00:41:03
and so there's both kind of tooling and models and outputs of those models that Google has open sourced and made freely
00:41:10
available and meanwhile openai has kind of diverged into this deeply profitable profit-seeking kind of Enterprise model
00:41:17
and when you invest in open AI in the round that they did before you could generate a financial return capped
00:41:25
at 100x which is still a pretty amazing Financial return you put a billion dollars in you can make 100 billion
00:41:30
dollars that's that's funding a real commercial Endeavor at that point well and then to it is the most striking
00:41:37
question about this whole thing about what's going on in our Ai and it's one that elon's talked about publicly and
00:41:42
others have kind of sat on one side or the other which is that AI offers a glimpse into one of the biggest
00:41:50
and most kind of existential threats to humanity and the question we're all going to be tackling and the battle
00:41:56
that's going to be happening politically and Regulatory wise and perhaps even between nations in the years to come is
00:42:03
who owns the AI who owns the models what can they do with it and what are we legally going to be allowed to do with
00:42:08
it and this is a really important part of that story yeah to build on what you're saying I just put in pie torch
00:42:13
people don't know that's another framework uh p-y-t-o-r-c-h this was you know largely built inside
00:42:20
of Facebook and then Facebook said hey we want to democratize machine learning and they made and I think they put a
00:42:26
bunch of Executives they may have even funded those Executives to go work on this open source project so they have a
00:42:32
huge stake in this and they went very uh open source with it and then tensorflow which you have an investment
00:42:40
in Tremont tensorflow was inside I don't I don't have a investment in tensorflow
00:42:46
we've no tensorflow the public Source came out of Google and then you invested in another company but we we're building
00:42:51
silicon for machine learning that's different right but it's based on tensorflow
00:42:56
no no no no no it the the the founder of this company was the founder of tensorflow oh got it okay all right no
00:43:03
sorry not a tensorflow part of me of the of TPU which was Google's internal silicon that they built to accelerate
00:43:10
tensorflow right if that makes sense and so that's the I you know I don't mean to be cynical about the whole
00:43:18
project or not it's just the confounding part of this of what is happening here it reminds me I don't know if you
00:43:23
remember this the biggest opportunity to hear the biggest opportunity here is for
00:43:27
Facebook I mean they need to get in this conversation ASAP I mean to to think that like look pytorch was like a pretty
00:43:35
seminal piece of technology that a lot of folks in in Ai and machine learning were using for a long time
00:43:42
tensorflow before that and what's so funny about like Google and Facebook is they're a little bit kind of like
00:43:48
they're not really making that much progress I mean Facebook released this kind of like Rando version of alpha fold
00:43:55
recently it's not that good I think these companies really need to get these products in the wild as soon
00:44:04
as possible it cannot be the case that you have to email people and get on some list I mean this is Google and Facebook
00:44:10
guys come on this is the I think the big innovation of open AI sax to bring you in the conversation they actually made
00:44:20
an interface and let the public play with it to the tune of three million dollars a day in Cloud credits or costs
00:44:28
which by the way just on that my my son was telling me he's like hey Dad do you want me to tell you when the best time
00:44:34
to use chat gbt is I'm like huh he's like yeah my friends and I have tried we've been using it so much we know now
00:44:40
when we can actually get resources oh wow and it's such an interesting thing where like a 13 year old kid knows you
00:44:47
know when it's mostly compute intensive that it's unusable and when to come back
00:44:51
and use it when's the last time Sachs a technology became this mainstream and captured people's imagination this
00:44:58
broadly maybe the iPhone or something yeah yeah look it's it's powerful there's there's
00:45:06
no question it's powerful I mean I I'm of two minds about it because whenever something is the hype cycle I just
00:45:11
reflexively want to be skeptical of it but on the other hand we have made a few investments in this area and I mean I
00:45:19
think it is powerful and it's it's going to be an enabler of some really cool things to come there's no question about
00:45:24
it I have two pieces of more Insider information uh one I have a chat GPT IOS app on my phone one of the nice Folks at
00:45:32
openai included me in the test flight and it's the simplest interface you've ever seen but basically you type in your
00:45:39
question but it keeps your history and then you can search your history so it looks sacks like you're in iMessage
00:45:44
basically and it has your threads and so I asked them hey what are the best restaurants in yawnville yeah a town
00:45:51
near um Napa and then I said which one has the best duck and it literally like gave me a great answer and then I
00:45:58
thought wait a second why is this not using a Siri or alexa-like interface and then why isn't it oh here's a video of
00:46:04
it I gave the video to Nick by the way Jason this what you're doing right now is you're creating a human feedback
00:46:10
reinforcement learning pipeline for chat GPT so just the fact that you asked that
00:46:15
question and you know over time if chat GPT has access to your GPS information and then knows that you went to
00:46:22
restaurant a versus B they can Intuit and it may actually prompt you to ask hey Jason we noticed you were in the
00:46:29
area did you go to Bottega if you did how would you rate it one through five that reinforcement learning now allows
00:46:36
the next person that asks what are the top five restaurants to say well you know over a thousand people that have
00:46:41
asked this question here's actually the best answer versus a generic rank of the
00:46:45
open web which is what the first data set is that's what's so interesting about this so this is why if you're a
00:46:52
company that already owns the eyeballs you have to be running to get this stuff out there well and then this answer uh
00:46:59
and you know cited Yelp well this is the first time I've actually seen chat GPT site and this is I think a major legal
00:47:06
breakthrough it didn't put a link in but if it's going to use yelp's data I don't
00:47:11
know if that permission for me out but it's quoting Yelp here it should link to French Laundry Bottega and Bouchon
00:47:16
Bouchon actually has the best confit for the record and I did have that duck so I asked this afterwards to see you
00:47:23
know in a scenario like this but it could also if I was talking to it I could say hey which one has availability
00:47:28
this afternoon or tomorrow for dinner and make the phone call for me like Google Assistant does or any number of I
00:47:36
was thinking about next tasks this was an incredibly powerful display in a 1.0 product I was thinking about what you
00:47:43
said last week and I thought back to the music industry in in the world of Napster
00:47:51
and what happened was there was a lot of musicians I think Metallica being the most famous One famously suing
00:47:59
Napster because it was like Hey listen like you're allowing people to take my content which they would otherwise pay
00:48:05
for there's economic damage that I could measure that legal argument was meaningful enough that ultimately
00:48:10
Napster was shut down now there were other versions of that that folks created including us at Winamp we
00:48:16
created a headless version of that but if you translate that problem set here is there a claim that Yelp can make in
00:48:24
this example that they're losing money that you know if you were going through Google
00:48:31
or if you're going through their app there's the sponsored link revenue and the advertising Revenue that they would
00:48:37
have got that they wouldn't get from here now that doesn't mean that chat GPT can't figure that out
00:48:42
but it's those kinds of problems that are going to be a little thorny in these next few years that have to really get
00:48:48
figured out reading every review on Yelp about duck then you could write a blog post in
00:48:58
which you say many reviewers on Yelp say that Bouchon is the best doc so the question is like is GPT held to that
00:49:06
standard or exactly or something different and as linking to it is linking to it
00:49:11
enough this is the question that I'm asking I don't know it should be because I'll argue it should be because if you
00:49:17
look at the four-part test for fair use which I had to go through because blogging had the same issue we would
00:49:22
write a blog post and we would mention Walt mossberg's review of a product in somebody else's and then people would
00:49:27
say oh I don't need to read Walt mossberg's in need of Wall Street Journal subscription and we say well
00:49:31
we're doing an original work we're comparing two or three different you know human is comparing two or three
00:49:37
different reviews and we're adding something to it it's a you know it's not a uh it's not interfering with Walt
00:49:44
mossberg's ability to get subscribers in the Wall Street Journal but the effect on the potential Market
00:49:49
is one of the four tests and uh just reading from Stanford's uh quote on fair use another important fair use factor is
00:49:55
whether you're used deprives the copyright owner of income or undermines a new or potential market for the
00:50:01
copyrighted work depriving a copyright owner of income is very likely to trigger a lawsuit this is true even if
00:50:08
you are not competing directly with the original work and we'll put the link to Stanford here
00:50:13
this is the key issue and I would not use Yelp in this example I would not open the Yelp app Yelp get no Commerce
00:50:20
can Yelp would lose this so chat GPT and all these Services must use citations of
00:50:26
where they got the original work they must link to them and they must get permission that's where this is all
00:50:30
going to shake out but forget about permission I mean you can't get a big enough data set if you
00:50:35
have to get permission in advance right yeah it's it's going to be the large data
00:50:41
sets quora Yelp the App Store reviews Amazon's reviews so there are large corpuses of data that
00:50:49
you would need like Craigslist has famously never allowed anybody to scrape Craigslist the amount of data inside
00:50:54
Craigslist as but one example of a data set would be extraordinary to build chat
00:50:58
GPT on chatgpt is not allowed to because as you brought up robots.txt last week there's going to need to be an ai.txt
00:51:08
are you allowed to use my data set in Ai and under and how will I be compensated
00:51:13
for it I'll allow you to use Craigslist but you have to link to the original post
00:51:18
and you have to note that the other gray area that isn't there today but may emerge is when section 230 gets
00:51:26
Rewritten because if they take the protections away for the Facebook and the Googles of the world for the
00:51:31
basically for being an algorithmic publisher and saying an algorithm is equivalent to a publisher
00:51:38
what it essentially saying is that an algorithm is kind of like doing the work of a human in a certain context and I
00:51:43
wonder whether that's also an angle here which now this algorithm which today David you use you said the example I
00:51:50
read all these blog posts I write something but if an algorithm does it maybe can
00:51:54
you then say no actually there was intent there that's different than if a human were to do it I don't know my
00:51:59
point is very complicated issues that are going to get sorted out and I think the
00:52:06
problem with the hype cycle is that you're going to have to marry it with an economic model for VCS to really
00:52:11
make money and right now there's just too much betting on the come so to the extent
00:52:15
you're going to invest it makes sense that you put money into open AI because that's safe
00:52:21
because the economic model of how you make money for everybody else is so unclear right oh it's clear actually I
00:52:27
have it for business I just signed up for chat GPT premium they had a survey that they shared on
00:52:34
their Discord server and I filled out the survey and they did a price Discovery survey uh Freeburg what's the
00:52:39
least you would pay the most you would pay what would be too cheap of a price for chat GPT Pro and what would be too
00:52:45
high of a price I put in like 50 bucks a month was would be what I would pay but
00:52:49
I was just thinking imagine chat gbt allowed you Friedberg to have a slack Channel called research and you could go
00:52:55
in there or anytime you're in slack you do slash chat or slash chat GPT and you say slash chatgpt tell me you know what
00:53:03
are the venues available in which we did this actually for I did this for values for on summer I
00:53:10
could say what are the venues that seat over 3 000 people in Vegas and it just gave us the answer okay well that was
00:53:16
the job of uh of the local event planner they had that list now you can pull that
00:53:22
list from a bunch of different sources I mean what would you pay for that a lot well I think one of the big things
00:53:30
that's happening is all the old business models don't make sense anymore in a world where the software is no
00:53:39
longer just doing what it's done for the last 60 years which is what is historically defined as information
00:53:45
retrieval so you have this kind of hierarchical storage of data that you have some index against and then you go
00:53:53
and you search and you pull data out and then you present that data back to the customer or the user of the software and
00:53:59
that's effectively been how all kind of data has been utilized in all systems for the
00:54:07
past 60 years in Computing largely what we've really done is kind of built an evolution of application layers or
00:54:14
software tools to interface with the fetching of that data the retrieval of that data and the display of that data
00:54:20
but what these systems are now doing what AI type systems or machine Learning Systems now do is the synthesis of that
00:54:27
data and the representation of some synthesis of that data to you the user in a way that doesn't necessarily look
00:54:35
anything like the original data that was used to make that synthesis and that's where business models like a Yelp for
00:54:41
example or like a web crawler that crawls the web and then presents web page directories to you those sorts of
00:54:48
models no longer make sense in a world where the software the signal to noise is now greater the signal is greater
00:54:53
than the noise in being able to present to you a synthesis of that data and basically resolve what your objective is
00:55:00
with your own consumption and interpretation of that data which is how you historically use these systems and I
00:55:07
think that's where there's you know going back to the question of the hype cycle
00:55:10
I don't think it's about being a hype cycle I think it's about the the investment opportunity against
00:55:15
fundamentally rewriting all compute tools because if all compute tools ultimately can use this capability in
00:55:22
their interface and in their modeling then it very much changes everything and one of the advantages that I think
00:55:27
businesses are going to latch onto which we talked about historically is novelty
00:55:32
in their data in being able to build new systems and new models that aren't generally available example
00:55:39
in biotech and Pharma for example having screening results from from very expensive uh experiments and running
00:55:48
lots of experiments and having a lot of data against those experiments gives a company an advantage
00:55:55
in being able to do things like drug discovering we're going to talk about that in a minute versus everyone using
00:56:00
publicly known screening libraries or publicly available protein modeling libraries and then screening against
00:56:06
those and then everyone's got the same candidates and the same targets in the same you know kind of clinical
00:56:10
objectives that they're going to try and resolve from from that output so um so I
00:56:14
think novelty and data is is one way that Advantage uh kind of arises but really you know that's just
00:56:21
kind of you know where's there an edge but fundamentally every business model can and and will need to be Rewritten
00:56:27
that's dependent on the historical on the legacy of kind of information retrieval as the core of what Computing
00:56:35
is is used to do sacks on my other podcast I was having a discussion with Molly about the legal profession
00:56:42
what impact would it be if chat GPT took every court case every argument every document and somebody took all of those
00:56:51
legal cases on the legal profession uh and then the filing of a lawsuit the defending of a lawsuit
00:56:58
public defenders prosecutors but what data could you figure out like if and like just to think in recent history
00:57:06
look at Chessa Boudin you could literally take every case every argument he did put it through it and say you
00:57:13
know versus an outcome in another state and you could uh figure out what's actually going on with this technology
00:57:19
what impact could this have on the legal field that you are a non-practicing attorney you have a legal degree I I
00:57:25
never practiced other than one summer at a law firm but no I think did you pass the bar was I did pass the bar yes yeah
00:57:32
yes I did try yes of course of course yeah come on here I went to Stanford dude I may not have passed the bar but I know
00:57:44
a little [ __ ] enough to know that you can't look I I I would be curious in terms of a very common question that a
00:57:53
an Associated Law Firm would get asked would be something like you know summarize the legal precedence in favor
00:57:59
of X right and that you can imagine GPT doing that like instantly now I think that the question about that I think
00:58:08
there's two questions one is can you prompt GPT in the right way to get the answer you want and I think you
00:58:14
know tremath you shared a really interesting video showing that people are developing some skills around
00:58:19
knowing how to ask GPT questions engineering away exact prompt engineering why because GPT is a command
00:58:27
line interface so if you ask gbt a simple question about what's the best restaurant in you know Napa it knows how
00:58:33
to answer that but there are much more complicated questions that you kind of need to know how to prompt it in the
00:58:38
right way so it's not clear to me that a command line interface is the best way of doing that I could imagine apps
00:58:44
developing that create more of like a GUI so we're an investor for example on copy AI which is doing this for
00:58:49
copywriters and marketers helping them write blog posts and emails and so you know imagine putting that like you know
00:58:57
GUI on top of chat GPT they've already been kind of doing this so I think that's part of it I think the other part
00:59:04
of it is on the answer side you know how accurate is it because in some professions having 90 or 95 or 99
00:59:14
accuracy is okay but in other professions you need six nines accuracy meaning 99.9999 accuracy okay so I think for a
00:59:26
lawyer going into court you know you probably need I don't know I mean it depends on on the
00:59:32
the ticket versus a murder trial is two very different yeah exactly so is 99 accuracy good enough is 95 accuracy good
00:59:41
enough I would say probably for a court case 95 is probably not good enough I'm not sure GPT is at even 95 yet
00:59:50
but could it be helpful like could could the associates start with chat GPT get an answer and then validate it probably
00:59:58
yeah if you had a bunch of Associates bang on some law model for a year again that's that reinforcement learning
01:00:06
we just talked about I think you'd get Precision recall off the charts and it would be perfect by the way just a cute
01:00:12
thing I don't know if you guys got this email it came about an hour ago from Reed Hoffman and Reed said to me hmoth I
01:00:19
I created fireside chat Bots a special podcast mini-series where I will be having a set of conversations with chat
01:00:27
GPT so you can go to YouTube by the way and and see Reed having and he's a very smart guy so this should be kind of cool
01:00:35
and by the way chat GPT will have an AI generated voice powered by the text-to-speech platform play.ht
01:00:44
go to YouTube if you want to see Reed have a kind of a conversation with chat GPT I
01:00:50
mean we have a conversation with the two Davids every week what's the difference
01:00:54
we know how this is going to turn out hey but actually so synthesizing to Moss Point about reinforcement learning with
01:01:02
something you said jaycal in our chat which I actually thought was pretty smart well that's first yeah so I'm
01:01:08
gonna give you credit here because I don't think you've said it on this this episode which is you said that these
01:01:15
open AI capabilities are eventually going to become commoditized or certainly much more widely available I
01:01:21
don't know if that means that they'll be totally commoditized or it'll be four players but there'll be multiple players
01:01:25
that offer them and you said the real Advantage will come from applications that are able to get a hold
01:01:32
of proprietary data sets and then use those proprietary data sets to generate insights and then layering
01:01:38
on what you must said about reinforcement learning if you can be the first out there in a given vertical with
01:01:44
a proprietary data set and then you get the advantage the mode of reinforcement learning that would be the way to create
01:01:50
I think a sustainable business just to build on what you said this week is the JPMorgan conference
01:01:56
Friedberg mentioned it last week I had dinner on Wednesday with this really interesting company
01:02:01
based in Zurich and what they have is basically a library of ligands right and so these ligands are used as a substrate
01:02:10
to deliver all kinds of molecules inside the body and what's interesting is that
01:02:14
they have a portfolio of like a thousand of these but really what they have is they have all the nuclear medicine about
01:02:21
whether it works so you know they're they target glioblastoma glioblastoma and so all of a sudden they can they can
01:02:28
say well this ligand can actually cross The Blood Vein barrier and get to the brain they have an entire data set of
01:02:34
that and a whole bunch of nuclear imagery around that they have something for Soft Cell carcinoma so then they
01:02:39
have that data set so to your point that's really valuable because that's real work that Google or Microsoft or
01:02:47
openai won't do right and if you have that and you bring it to the problem you can
01:02:54
probably make money you know there's a business there to be built just building on this conversation I just realized
01:03:00
like a great prompt engineer is going to become a title and an actual skill the ability to interface with these here you
01:03:07
go hey guys Lanier somebody who is very good at talk to these you know instances and and
01:03:16
maximizing the result for them and refining the results for them just like a detective who asks great questions
01:03:22
the that person is going to be 10 or 20 times more valuable they could be the proverbial 10x engineer in the future of
01:03:31
as a as in a company and as we talk about austerity and doing more with less and the 80 less people running Twitter
01:03:38
now or Amazon laying off 18 000 people Salesforce laying off 8 000 Facebook laying off 10 and probably another 10
01:03:45
000. what catalytic effect like could this have we could be sitting here in three
01:03:51
or four or five years and instead of running a company like Twitter with 80 less people maybe you could run it with
01:03:56
98 less people look I think directionally it's the the right statement I mean you know I've I've made
01:04:02
the statement a number of times that I think we moved from this idea of greater economy to narrator economy
01:04:08
where historically was kind of Labor economy where humans use their physical labor to do things than we were
01:04:14
knowledge workers we used our our brains to to make things and then ultimately we kind of I think
01:04:21
resolved to this narrator economy where the the way that you kind of can State intention and better manipulate the
01:04:27
tools to drive your intentional outcome the more successful you're going to be and you can kind of think about this as
01:04:32
being the artist of the past Da Vinci was um what made him so good was he was technically incredible at trying to
01:04:41
reproduce a photographic like imagery using uh using paint and there's these really great kind of Museum exhibits on
01:04:48
how he did it using these really interesting kind of like split mirror systems and then the the better the
01:04:56
artist of the 21st century the 20th century was the best user of Adobe Photoshop and that person is not
01:05:02
necessarily the best painter and the artist of the 22nd century isn't going to look like the Photoshop
01:05:08
expert and it's not going to look like the the painter it's going to look like something entirely different it could be
01:05:14
who's got the most creative imagination in driving the software to drive new outcomes and I think that the same
01:05:20
analogy can be used across every Market in every industry however one thing to note jaycal it's it's not about
01:05:26
austerity because the the Luddite argument is when you have new tools and you get more leverage from those tools
01:05:33
you have less work for people to do and therefore everyone suffers the reality is new work emerges and New
01:05:39
Opportunities emerge and we level up as a species and when we level up we all kind of fill the gaps and expand our
01:05:45
productivity and our capability set I thought what J Cal was saying was more that Google will be smaller didn't mean
01:05:51
that the pie wouldn't grow it's just that that individual company is run differently but there will be hundreds
01:05:56
of more companies or thousands more Millions more yeah that's sort of I have an actual punch-up for you yeah instead
01:06:03
of narrative it's the conductor economy it's you're you're conducting a symphony
01:06:07
oh a bunch up punch up there but I do think like we're gonna there's gonna be somebody who's
01:06:12
sitting there like remember Tom Cruise a Minority Report as a detective was moving stuff around with a interface the
01:06:18
in yeah you know with the gloves and everything this is kind of that manifested you could even if you're not
01:06:24
an attorney you could say hey I want to sue this company for copyright infringement give me my best arguments
01:06:29
and then on the other side Say Hey I want to know what the next three features I should put into my product is
01:06:34
can you examine who are my top 20 competitors and then who have they hired in the last six months and what are
01:06:39
those people talking about on Twitter you could have this conductor you know who becomes really good at that
01:06:46
um yeah the leveling up that happens in the book Enders game I think is a good example of this where the guy goes
01:06:53
through the entire kind of ground up and then ultimately he's commanding armies of spaceships and space and his
01:07:00
orchestration of all of these armies is actually the skill set that wins the war
01:07:04
yeah you predicted that there would be like all these people that create these next-gen forms of con content
01:07:10
but I think this Reid Hoffman thing could be pretty cool like what if he wins a Grammy for his you know computer
01:07:16
created podcast mini series that's one thing the thing I'm really excited about it's the first AI novel gonna get
01:07:23
published by a major publisher I think it happens this year when's the first AI Symphony gonna get performed by a major
01:07:28
Symphony Orchestra and when's the first AI generated screenplay get turned into an AI generated 3D movie that we all
01:07:34
watch and then the more exciting one I think is when do we all get to make our own AI video game where we instruct the
01:07:40
video game platform what world we want to live in I don't think that's happening for the next three or four
01:07:44
years but when it does I think everyone's got these new immersive environments that they can live in I
01:07:48
have a question when you know when I say live in I mean video game wise yeah sorry go ahead when you have when you
01:07:53
have these computer systems just like to use a question of game theory for a second they're these models are
01:07:59
iterating rapidly these are all mathematical models so inherent in let's just say this the perfect answer right
01:08:06
like if you had perfect Precision recall foreign models get there at a system-wide level
01:08:13
everybody is is sort of like they get to the game theory optimal they're all at Nash equilibrium right all these systems
01:08:20
working at the same time then the real question would then be what the hell do you do then because if you keep getting
01:08:27
the same answer if everybody then knows how to ask the exact right question and you start to go through these iterations
01:08:32
where you're like maybe there is a dystopian hellscape where there are no jobs maybe that's the Elon World which
01:08:39
is you can you can recursively find a logical argument where there is no job that's possible
01:08:47
right and now I'm not saying that that path is the likely path but I'm saying it is important to keep in mind that
01:08:52
that path of outcomes is still very important to keep in the back of our mind as we figure these things out well
01:08:58
Freeburg you know you were asking before about this like you know will more work
01:09:03
be created of course artistic Pursuits podcasting is a job now being an influencer is a job yada yada new things
01:09:09
emerge in the world but here in the United States in 1970 I'm looking at um Fred I'm looking at the St Louis Fred
01:09:16
1970 26.4 percent of the country was working in a factory was working in manufacturing you want to guess what
01:09:24
that is in 2012 sorry what percentage it was 26 in 1970 and in 2015 when they stopped the
01:09:34
percentage in manufacturing United States they discontinued this it was a 10. so it's possible we could just see
01:09:40
you know the concept of office work the concept of knowledge work is going to follow
01:09:46
pretty inevitable the path of manufacturing that that seems like a pretty logical Theory or no
01:09:54
I think we should move on but yes okay so how would we like to ruin the show now should we talk about Biden and uh
01:10:01
the documents and ruin the show with political talk or should we talk about since it's been such a great episode so
01:10:10
far what do we want to talk about next again a couple of choices don't want to talk about
01:10:16
um give it to him hold on a second we all know jaycal that according to you when a president is in
01:10:29
possession of classified documents in his home yes that apparently have been taken an unauthorized manner basically
01:10:37
stolen he should have his home raided by the FBI almost close close yeah if so anyway
01:10:45
the Biden uh as of the taping of this has now said there's a third batch of classified documents this group I guess
01:10:55
there was one at an office one at a library now this third group is in his garage with his Corvette certainly not
01:11:01
looking good uh they say they say that in his defense they say the garage was locked meaning that uh you could use a
01:11:07
garage door opener too to open or close that that's what it was locked when it went closed so we're pretty much as
01:11:13
secure as the documents at Mar-A-Lago same equivalency no no no actually I mean just to be perfectly Fair the
01:11:20
documents in Mar-A-Lago were locked in a basement the FBI came checked it out said we'd like you to lock those up they
01:11:25
locked them up so got it a little safer than maybe a little safer then but functionally the same functional
01:11:33
functionally the same uh the only difference here would be what sacks when you look at these two cases
01:11:38
well that in one case mayor Garland is appointed an independent Council to investigate Trump and there's no such a
01:11:45
special counsel or investigator appointed to investigate Biden I mean yeah these things are functional put
01:11:51
somebody on it though I don't think they've appointed a special counsel yet no they did as of an
01:11:57
hour ago a special counsel was appointed did that just happen yeah one hour ago uh Robert her is his name okay I guess
01:12:04
there are real questions to look into here the documents apparently were removed twice why were they moved two
01:12:11
ordered that what was a classified document doing in Biden's personal Library what do the documents pertain to
01:12:19
do they touch on the Biden families business dealings in Ukraine and China so there are real things to look into
01:12:25
here but let me just take a step back now that the last three presidential candidates have been ensnared in these
01:12:33
classified document problems remember it's Biden now and then Trump and Hillary Clinton before Trump I think
01:12:42
it's time to step back and ask are we over classifying documents I mean are we fetishizing these documents are they all
01:12:50
really that sensitive it seems to me that we have an over classification problem meaning that ever since uh foia
01:12:58
was passed the Freedom of Information Act the government can avoid accountability
01:13:02
and and prying Eyes by simply labeling any document is classified so overclassification was a logical
01:13:09
response by the permanent government to the Freedom of Information Act and now it's gotten to the point where just
01:13:16
about everything handed to a president or vice president is classified so I think I can understand why they're all
01:13:23
making this mistake and I think a compounding problem is that we never declassify anything there's still all
01:13:29
these records from the Kennedy assassination well that's crazy classified they they and they're
01:13:35
supposed to have Declassified these the CIA keeps filibustering on the release of
01:13:42
the JFK assassination documents and they've been told they have they have to stop and they have to release them and
01:13:48
then they keep redacting stuff conspiracy theorist here but what are they trying to cover up I mean this is a
01:13:58
long time ago that's the only way to interpret it but even for more mundane documents
01:14:02
there are very few documents that need to be classified after even say five years you could argue that we should be
01:14:08
automatically declassifying them after five years unless they go through a process to get reclassified I mean I'd
01:14:14
say like just you guys in business I know it's not government and business how many of the documents that you deal
01:14:21
with are still sensitive are Trade Secrets five years later certainly 20 years later they're not
01:14:29
right like okay let's say like five years I mean the only documents in business that I
01:14:35
think I deal with that you could call sensitive are the ones that pertain to the company's future plans right because
01:14:42
you wouldn't want to compare the table to get those yeah there's a handful of things legal issues yeah even cat people
01:14:49
is not that sensitive Because by the time you go public it's legally has to be public yeah at some point like
01:14:54
there's a hundred people who have that I mean it's exactly so like in business I
01:14:58
think our experience has been there's very few documents that stay sensitive that need to remain secret now
01:15:05
look if Biden or Trump or whatever they're reviewing the schematics to the javelin missile system or to you know
01:15:13
how we make our nuclear bombs or something obviously that needs to say secret forever but I don't believe our
01:15:18
politicians are reviewing those kinds of documents well I mean we both I don't really understand what it is that
01:15:24
they're reviewing why are they keeping needs to be classified five years why are they keeping them was the issue we
01:15:30
discussed previously we actually agreed on that I think they're just keeping mementos I think there's a simple
01:15:35
explanation for why they're keeping them Jason which is that the that everything
01:15:40
is more classified and there's a zillion documents and if you look like both Biden and Trump these documents were
01:15:48
mixed in with a bunch of personal effects and mementos my point is if you work in government and handle documents
01:15:55
they're all classified so I mean if the National Archive asks for them back or you find them you
01:16:01
should just give them back I mean that is that's going to wind up being the rugby Trump didn't give them back fair
01:16:06
enough I did so that's the only difference here well no no hold on the FBI went to Trump's basement they looked
01:16:11
around they said put a lock on this they seem to be okay with it initially then maybe they changed their minds I don't
01:16:16
know I'm not defending Trump it's pretty clear that he wouldn't give him back him
01:16:19
that was the point I'm making is that now that Biden Trump and Hillary Clinton have all been ensnared in this is it
01:16:26
time to rethink the fact that we're over classifying so many documents I mean just think about the incentives that
01:16:33
that we're creating for our politicians okay just think about the incentives number One never use email remember
01:16:40
Hillary Clinton the whole email server yeah you got to be nuts to use email number two never touch a document never
01:16:46
touch a document what never let anyone hand you a document flush them down the toilet
01:16:51
never let anyone hand you a documentary if you're a politician an elected official yeah the only time you should
01:17:00
ever be handling anything is going to a clean room right you know make an appointment go in there read something
01:17:05
don't take notes don't bring a camera and then leave I mean this is no way to run a government
01:17:11
it's crazy who does this benefit who does this benefit it doesn't benefit our elected officials it makes it almost
01:17:17
impossible for them to act like normal people that's why it benefits the Insiders the permanent government you're
01:17:24
missing the most important part about the sex this was if you want to go into conspiracy theories this was a setup
01:17:30
Biden planted the documents here we go so that we could create the false equivalency
01:17:35
and start up Biden versus Trump 2024 this ensures that now Trump has something to fight with Biden about but
01:17:43
and this is going to help Trump because they're both tainted equally tainted yes
01:17:48
the same Source in the new cycle no I think but I think it's the opposite I think mayor Garland
01:17:55
now is going to have to drop the prosecution against Trump for the stolen documents or at least that part of what
01:18:02
they're investigating him for they might still investigate him over January 6th or something but they can't investigate
01:18:07
them seems more sticky yeah I agree with that actually I think it's going to be hard
01:18:11
to do but my point is like just think about look but both sides are engaged in hyper partisanship the way right now the
01:18:18
that the conservatives and the right they're attacking Biden now for the same thing that the left was attacking Trump
01:18:24
for my point is like just take a step back and again think about the incentives we're creating about how to
01:18:31
run our government you can't use email and you can't touch documents and by the way if you're don't ever go
01:18:40
into politics if you're a business person because they'll investigate every deal you ever did prior to getting into
01:18:47
politics what are you going to do when you try to get uh your treasury a position what's
01:18:53
going to be nuts you got to be nuts to go so you're not going to take a position
01:18:57
that the Washington insiders by which I mean the permanent Washington establishment I.E the Deep state they're
01:19:04
creating a system in which they're running things and the elected officials barely can operate like normal
01:19:10
functioning humans there interesting I heard a great rumor this is total gossip mongering oh here we go uh
01:19:21
that you know one of Ken Griffin's best out is to get DeSantis elected so that he
01:19:28
can become treasury secretary I mean Ken Griffin would get that if he wanted it and then he would be able to divest all
01:19:35
of Citadel tax-free so he would Mark the market like 30 billion dollars which is
01:19:41
a genius way to go out now then it occurred to me oh my God that is me and Sax's path too
01:19:52
why would it be tax-free when you get appointed to those branch those senior posts you're allowed to
01:19:59
either stick it in a blind trust or you can sell with no capital gains yeah what well because they want you they
01:20:08
want you to diverse yes anything that presents a conflict they want you to divest and so the
01:20:13
argument is if you have if you're forced to divest it to enter government you shouldn't be forcibly if I become mayor
01:20:20
of San Francisco or Austin Secretary of Transportation Jay Cal you can do that oh I'm qualified for that
01:20:27
I've take the bus I got an electric bike to answer freeburg's point I think Citadel Securities there's a lot of
01:20:34
folks that would buy that because that's just a Securities trading business and then Citadel the hedge fund probably
01:20:39
something like a big bulge bracket bank or Blackstone probably Blackstone in fact because now Blackstone can plug it
01:20:44
into a trillion dollar asset machine it's a I think there would be buyers out the door this is this is an incredible
01:20:51
grift now I know why it's not a grift at all but it's a it's an incredible come on man a cabinet position for No Cap
01:20:59
gains well that's not a grift that's like those are the laws they force you to sell everything
01:21:04
and then you do Public Schools I think you're I think you're misusing the word to continue to genuflect to the left
01:21:10
lane you're being a little defensive that or you're dumb I'm not stupid man that's when I see it you take a camera
01:21:21
position where does that exist yes if you were asked to serve look any normal person
01:21:29
who wants to serve in government you can't use email and you can't touch a document and every deal you've ever done
01:21:35
gets investigated yes yes why would you want to do it I mean I'm saying that you
01:21:40
get to divest tax-free me think thou dot protesteth too much David the fact that
01:21:46
you two know this rule no I know I know it it's like a well-known language I know this rich
01:21:53
people I looked up Grifton stage it means that to engage in a petty or small scale Swindle I don't think selling a 31
01:22:02
billion dollar engine no it's not a combination of BlackRock and Blackstone would be considered a petty small did
01:22:08
any of you guys watch the Madoff uh series on Netflix no was it good no oh my God it is so so
01:22:16
depressing I gotta say like just that that Madoff series there is no glimmer of light or hope or positivity or
01:22:26
recourse everyone is a victim everyone suffers it is just so dark don't watch it it's so depressing
01:22:34
is so depressing it's so good they all kill themselves and die and like all the ones one guy died of cancer person pick
01:22:42
hard I didn't realize all this the trustee that went and got the money he went and got money back from these
01:22:47
people who were 80 years old and retired and had spent that money decades ago and
01:22:51
he sued them and took their homes away from them and no one and and they had no one they were part of the scam no one no
01:22:57
one won it was a brutal awful whole thing yeah by the way that's going to be really interesting as we enter this SPF
01:23:05
trial because 100 that that is the track that that is what happens if you guys southern district of
01:23:11
new York said that this case is becoming too big for them because all the places
01:23:15
that SPF said money all those uh pacts and all those political donations before they have to go and investigate where
01:23:23
that money went and see if they can get it back and it's going to open up an investigation into each one of these
01:23:27
campaign finance and election and kind of interfering right now propublica sorry propublica on the other
01:23:35
end of the spectrum I did watch this weekend triangle of sadness have you guys okay sadness is great it's so dark to
01:23:45
The Davids uh listen this is one of the it I thought it was it didn't pay off the way I thought but this is one of the
01:23:51
best setups you'll see in a movie so basically it's a bunch of people on an on a luxury yacht so you have a bunch of
01:23:58
rich people as the guests then you have the staff that interacts with them and this is like mostly Caucasian and
01:24:07
then under in the bowels of the ship what you see are Asian and black workers that support them okay so the the in
01:24:14
some ways is a little bit of a microcosm of the world Oh I thought you would say
01:24:18
a microcosm of something else and then and then what happens is there's like a shipwreck basically right oh don't spoil
01:24:25
it come on okay and so but no but I'll just say so so the plot is you have this Caucasian patriarchy
01:24:33
that that gets flips upside down because after the Shipwreck the only person who
01:24:38
knows how to make a fire and catch the fish is the Filipino woman who is in charge of cleaning the toilets Social
01:24:43
Security comes in charge so now you flip to this immigrant Matrix pretty great meditation on class and um survival it's
01:24:51
it's pretty well done it didn't end well I thought I thought okay yeah well it's
01:24:55
hard to wrap that one up well you know what they say Boys still a little and they throw you in jail still
01:25:00
a lot and they make you King uh famous Bob Dylan quote uh all right well this has been a great episode great
01:25:06
to see you besties uh austerity menu tonight tremath uh what's on the austerity menu tonight what are we doing
01:25:12
salad uh some tuna sandwiches no I think uh I think Kirsten is doing uh I think durad
01:25:20
yeah that's yeah that's a good fish Jake and I once had a great rod in Venice in Venice Venice
01:25:31
[Music] so good I agree when it's done well the durad kicks us there's only one way to
01:25:36
cook it to rod do you know what that is you gotta you gotta it's the way they did in Venice you got to cook the whole
01:25:43
fish yeah yeah okay and then after you cook the fish then you de-bone it right and uh right yeah absolutely that's the
01:25:51
way to do it that was back when sax and I used to enjoy each other's company this podcast made us into mortal enemies
01:25:59
check out I'm a little disappointed you couldn't agree with my take on this document Scandal instead of dunking in a
01:26:05
partisan way I tried to explain why it was a problem of our whole political system I like your theory I I I I think
01:26:12
you know you you keep I just think your party Crystal a little bit more but you know compare your grift are we
01:26:25
gonna play Saturday after the wild card game are you guys interested in playing Saturday as well because I got the hall
01:26:29
pass I can I can do a game outside I don't know I have to check with my boss who's going to the are you guys walking
01:26:35
on sex are you gonna come to play poker at that live stream thing for the day in
01:26:41
a way I doubt it no oh he doesn't want to interact with humans that does not uh play well in
01:26:47
confirmation hearings you know the last time I did one of those Alan Keating destroyed me on
01:26:53
camera feet and every time he bluffed I folded every time he had the the nuts I called
01:27:01
that's true a shellacking a classic saxophone saving thing is that what's going on here no no
01:27:10
no no it has to do with the cabinet positions he doesn't need to be seen recklessly gambling so badly you could
01:27:17
do any cabinet position sacks which one would it be steak I don't know that those like cabinet
01:27:32
positions are that important I mean they run these giant bureaucracies that again
01:27:36
are are permanent you can't fire anyone so if you can't fire a person to the early report to you right
01:27:44
Trump's idea was like put a bunch of Hardline CEO type people in charge have them blow up these things and make them
01:27:50
more efficient it didn't really work did it yeah well you know why as CEO is actually in charge like Elon he walks in
01:27:57
if he doesn't like what you're doing he'll just fire you you can't fire anyone how do you manage them when they
01:28:02
don't have to listen to anything you say that's our whole government right now our cabinet heads are figureheads
01:28:10
for for these departments for these Giants is that a no or is that a yes you'd still take state
01:28:17
look at that well you know I think I have another feeling first what is the best ambassadorship
01:28:24
well you can't you can't digest everything you can tell which ambassadorship is the
01:28:30
best one based on how much they charge for it yeah so I think I think London is the most expensive I think that one is a
01:28:37
million for London 10 to 15. yeah 10 15 million that's that's what Sax's fourth least
01:28:45
expensive home cost no no you have to spend that every year to run it Jason you only got you gotta pick for him you
01:28:52
could be the ambassador to guinea or the ambassador to the UK you get the same budget actually what's kind of funny is
01:28:57
I know two people who serve as ambassadors under Trump and it was really cheap to get those because no one
01:29:02
no one should be part of the Trump Administration two for one they were on they were on
01:29:09
fire sale after because of trump who wants to be tainted but by the way one of them and you can just beep out the
01:29:16
name was telling me it was the best thing because he ended up selling they already
01:29:20
did the all-time highs to take the job he was like I gotta get out of all of his stuff no but listen let me tell you
01:29:25
the the ambassadorships it was it was a smart trade by those guys because Ambassador is a lifetime title so your
01:29:31
Ambassador whatever no one remembers was president when you were Ambassador no one cares so you are going for the
01:29:37
Ambassador so stay I think it's fair I think he's going to Ambassador I'm not interested in ceremonial things I'm
01:29:44
interested in making an impact and the problem with all these positions I mean being a cabinet official is not
01:29:51
much different than being an ambassador so you're gonna you're gonna enlist in the navy no what what would it what has
01:29:58
a bigger impacts or being an ambassador who's more influential Saks on the all in pod
01:30:05
or beep as the ambassador of Sweden actually all in pod is more impactful by the way this is why I take
01:30:14
issue with your statement about the term mainstream media because I think you have become the mainstream media more
01:30:20
than most of the folks that are Independent Media we're Independent Media trust me it's Independence things
01:30:24
happen by thread and stop genuflecting three episodes I just like saying the word genuine you like genuflecting I
01:30:37
know because that is the top word of 2023 so far for me oh is that is somebody doing an analysis with Chad
01:30:43
chapite of the words used here no but sax brought that word up it was just so it's a wonderful word it's it's not used
01:30:48
enough all right everybody we'll see you next time on the all-in podcast comments are
01:30:53
turned back on have at it you animals love you guys love you besties bye Rain Man
01:31:03
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