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all right everybody welcome back it's hot swap summer here at the Allin podcast episode
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1086 of the world's number one podcast calling in from the home office in Italy chth poopaa how are you doing
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sir great how are you you look so relaxed look at you look at you you but it's only been two days that
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I'm working I mean I'm not that relaxed yet but this place does put you in the right mood I got to all right saxs I'm
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sure that it's been an uneventful week for you how are you doing in the great state of California from our
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headquarters at the all-in tower in San Francisco how's the all-in tower doing why are you doxing me what's going on
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here CU you live in San Francisco everybody knows that all you have to do is look for the protests follow the
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protest and you'll find sex also with us of course from the ohal headquarters is
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that Backdraft the house is on fire house is on fire but house you're referring to which house which house
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America Democrats or Biden's house there's a political party there I mean you can interpret it as you wish oh okay
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there you go your butt is your butt on fire did you have some bad Indian food did you hit the taco truck what happened
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there's a heat wave in the west right now he stopped at the taco truck the West is on fire the West is on fire okay
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okay Dr Doom if you want to come to the Allin Summit now in year three we've got
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a ton of programming updates but the tickets are going to sell out we just released another 100 tickets I'm sorry
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you have a fly like a tack in your head right now you look like Mike Pence Jesus
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is it a Mike Pence moment it's a Mike Pence fly it's a Mike Pence fly yeah it is a pence moment God or it could be
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like a a Biden moment circling the dead God that's too dark that's pretty dark it's pretty dark okay three two
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let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
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[Music] withen for folks who are interested in meeting the other lunatics who listen to
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this pod if you have no money and no budget you can come to one of the 50 meetups that are currently happening
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around the world next week on Thursday July 11th go to Allin podcast.co meetups Allin podcast.co meetups you can host or
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you can join them it's for $0.0 now if you're doing well you got a little extra cheddar and you want to get
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together at the all-in summit that's in September we held back 400 tickets according to freeberg who is running the
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summit now he's released 100 this week so get your applications in and if you are trying to score a ticket or a
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speaking G gig just don't email me email freedberg freedberg any updates on the content people want to know what's on
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the on the docket we're definitely going to be talking about the changing landscape of American politics so we are
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going to have some representation there uh to to have that conversation we're going to be talking about the the future
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of media we're going to be doing some really cool technology deep Dives in areas like robotics age reversal
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EVs and uh talking a lot about AI meets Enterprise software so we have a number of you know the leading Enterprise
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software CEO joining us for conversations on that front so it's shaping up to be really amazing
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programming like Jason said we're we held back 400 tickets from the initial batch and we're going to release 100
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this week so put an application in we're trying to be selective and it's going to
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be amazing the parties are going to be awesome really excited how it's coming together you're doing some uh bird of a
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Feather dinners I understand this year some New Concept can you explain that to me the first night of the summit we're
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we've rented out a bunch of great restaurants around town in LA and we're putting people together for dinner at
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all these different restaurants and then the parties are nights 2 and three which
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are going to be you know beautiful it's gonna be great everybody comes to the parties but that first night everyone
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comes to the dinners everything yeah it's gonna be great so so we're trying to create more space for people to meet
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each other I know that's been a big thing in the past in the meetups and at the Summit is people love meeting other
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folks in the communities so yeah smaller groups so the dinners will be 200 people
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or something like that you can expect couple hundred depending on the location yeah yeah and then the bigger parties
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will be everybody 1800 people so where do people apply for this it's at summit. Allin podcast.com okay there you go
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folks and you can come to the free events you can come there all right just uh usually we when we do the docket I
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pursue a mullet docket I do the business first and the party in the back but man
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we got to start with Washington I've never supported the mullet strategy I know that I know that you've been anti-
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mullet from the beginning you want this to be a political show no no no no no I never said be a political show exact I
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always said we start with the biggest most topical issues first and it could be business or it could be politics
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correct you were discriminating against the politics you were insisting that it'
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be a business issue even if the business issue wasn't relevant topical or interesting here we go no I was not I
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think you're talking about freedberg freedberg was the one that's true it mostly came from freeberg who is right
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who brought the ratings of this pod to a whole new level yeah free who brought the Maga lunatic who built this thing
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who built me vad from Robin Hood he is the guy who did from did by the way I mean the the
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ratings of this pod hit some sort of new stratospheric level not just with President Trump interview but last week
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whatever I mean the point is last week was I think the most crazy week in the history of
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politics and it's only going to get crazier so let's start off with hot swap summary you heard of you first or maybe
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not hot swap summer continues you know previously historically if you wanted to understand who's winning an election you
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look at the polls not perfect obviously some of these polls still call land lives yada yada but then people built
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models obviously 538 all this kind of stuff but it seems that this year and this election cycle people are really
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focused on prediction markets AKA betting markets and uh we're looking at them in real time and obviously people
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have skin in the game so you can I'm interested in the panels take on the sharps on these platforms and if you
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think that they're more accurate than say some of these polls or the aggregators of polls but kamla Harris is
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now the favorite to be the Democratic nominee according to one of them so just let that soak
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in in the last 24 hours VP Harris's chances of being the Democratic nominee have gone from 18% to 50% at the same
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time President Biden has dropped from 66% to 28% there are a bunch of long shots Moon
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shots in there new Michelle Obama Gretchen Whitmer all in the 18 12% but they were low single digits prior to
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last week's debate as you can see in the chart Biden and Harris were about even this morning uh the taping of this is
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Wednesday July 3 but the New York Times reported that Biden told an ally he's considering
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dropping out so we should note the White House a White House spokesman said this
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is absolutely false but this is the money chart from I think poly market and we keep updating this document in real
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time while we're taping chances of biding dropping out are now at 77% that's up from 60% this morning
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after debate after we record the show we have to do before we publish a whole well I I don't think he's gonna do that
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because he is scheduled to do a sitdown interview with George Stephanopoulos I think they're recording it on Friday
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right which is two days there oh he's going to do an interview with Stephanopoulos on Friday and then
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Stephanopoulos is showing it in two parts on Saturday and Sunday so it's going to be edited so we don't know what
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they're going to edit in or edit out at this point though the media is in such a
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freeding frenzy that I don't think that ABC is going to cover for Biden so I suspect it'll probably be a pretty fair
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representation of the actual recorded interview in any event that's coming out this weekend I think the Biden
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presidency basically hinges on this interview if Biden can show that he's sharp and he's responsive and not scile
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and presumably he's going to sit down and do this at the best hours of the day right they can't make that excuse
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anymore so is that before nap time or after nap time right exactly so I'm sure he can do this at a time when he has the
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good stuff I think if he knocks it out of the park maybe he can quell all of this speculation but if not if it goes
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poorly then I think he's done so this is the last chance again it's like this is
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like the third last chance yeah because think about it I mean the accusation is that he's seile that's not
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a hard thing to disprove if you're not actually cile right you just need to go in
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there right it's a pretty low bar right not cile yeah so he just needs to go in there and talk for whatever it is an
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hour and he's not gonna be fed hard Hardball questions probably be pretty softball questions he just has to prove
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that he's not scile if he can do that it'll calm things down Stephanopoulos generally does a a good job he's not a
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sick aant I think he he considers himself a legit journalist and will will actually well this is he throw some fast
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balls I think in Bernstein moment I mean like if if Stephanopoulos wants to go into the Hall of Fame this is his
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opportunity if he absolutely if he throws the high heater to Biden and basically is the one
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that delivers to Cuda then his name will be in history alongside Biden for that reason think about it straty if if
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you're the if you're the Democratic Party leaders and you are evaluating who to choose to replace Biden the first
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thing you do is you have to double down on Biden because if you are neutral to negative on Biden or passive it's
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immediately interpreted as he's being swapped out and then you don't have time to pick the right candidate in order to
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have the time to pick the right candidate you have to first double down on Biden be really declarative that he's
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our candidate put him on media put him on talk shows while you were figuring out who's going to replace him and what
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the strategy is to get that person to win so there's a there's a chance that what's actually going on is a little bit
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more of a structured strategy around find the right candidate set up the right program to get them elected figure
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out how we're going to move the $120 million that we raised from Biden over to whoever this new candidate is you can
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only you can only move it to uh Harris you cannot move it you cannot move the entire entirey of thatd you you've got
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to together a real plan you can't just do the hot swap you've got to have a plan for the hot swap which means in the
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meantime you got to buy time and the best way to buy time is throw Biden forward and be like hey look this guy's
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G to go do media he's still our guy you're correct that they're buying time obviously while they try to figure this
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out and the powers that be which powers that be the Biden Camp which is not the political machine it's his literal
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family Hunter jaill Etc um what they're actually doing and this will be the next
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nois prediction that'll come true is they're going to do I didn't have time to get like a all
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all I heard was lick my anus it's NIS not n us so no shanus prediction coming in here hot here's
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what will happen freeberg they going to do all caps all caps locks alert must credit no shanis they're GNA do a
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Democratic primary speedrun here's what's going to happen they're going to do five debates in 10 weeks and then
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whoever wins wins Kamala he's gonna resign Kamala becomes president Kamala gets to um run doesn't speed she gets to
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speedrun like everybody else Dean Phillips gets to come in everybody speedruns it the they take over the
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media the media will go crazy over the summer massive ratings boom and we have a winner come in and they demolish Trump
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that's not going to happen yeah you said he's not going to get hop swapped as well noer canis has gone off the rail
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you said he wouldn't get hot swapped so you have no question if you run a debate
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it shows it shows weak the party the party needs to select a leader and they need to say this is our candidate
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because if they if they do this it's too diffuse it weakens whoever ends up winning it's whoever ends up winning is
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it strengthens the part it strengthens the party because they say listen he decided to resign we wanted to do the
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most democratic thing possible what's the most democratic thing possible we put all our candidates out there and you
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the people choose chth tell him I'm right I think this is one of the dumbest predictions you've made and you've made
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you made some real doozies in your date the hot swap is GNA happen so you didn't
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call it the problem with your hot swap theory has always been that not only would Biden step down but that magically
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they would choose the best candidate we would get a Jeff Bezos we get a Jamie Diamond that somehow we would get
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someone who represented all of Trump's policies without being Trump but you would get some magical moderate to
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emerge in the Democratic party that's not going to happen okay thanks to your incessant demands for the hot swap okay
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you and many others and this feeding I I love it yeah you in part along with many
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others have caused this Feeding Frenzy we are going to get president kamla Harris she's the only alternative you
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can see this in the prediction markets just a few days ago it was sort of evenly divided between there was her
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there was Gavin Nome there was Gretchen Whitmer now it's just her why does that happen because they realize they can't
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sidestep kamla Harris without offending major constituency in the Democratic party equally important maybe even more
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important they would lose roughly a billion dollars of contributions to the Biden Harris campaign if neither Biden
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nor Harris is running at the top of the ticket they'd have to refund all of that
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money back to the donors who contributed it there's no way they're going to start
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over from zero in terms of fundraising so they've realized that if Joe steps aside there is only one feasible
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candidate for them which is KLA Harris let me ask you a question if Jamie Diamond declared that he's going to he
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he would be happy to take on the candidacy for the Democratic party he would call his friend Warren
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Buffett he would call his friend Jeff Bezos he would call up his own personal banker and say we've got half a billion
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let's go and let's have a run at this there are certain folks that are outside of the typical political spectrum that
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might actually have a shot at doing the extraordinary here and stepping up and doing exactly what Trump and others that
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support Trump don't want to see happen which is a candidate that can actually challenge Trump on the merits of their
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experience on their values on their capabilities As Leaders as Executives and on their past performance and I
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think that someone like that might be the strategist's kind of move to say this is the one thing we can do that can
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defeat Trump because we all know from the polling that Harris doesn't stand a shot we tried that four years ago and
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you're missing the history which is Mike Bloomberg tried that exact same thing and there was one word that was said to
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Mike Bloomberg and his candid imploded and it was the word billionaire so the idea that you're going to get some other
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billionaire that all of a sudden is less hated I mean Mike Bloomberg has s so so
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much good quite honestly and so if he can't kind of Escape The Scarlet Letter of that of the b word I don't know how
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anybody but blumberg but here's why Bloomberg ran against other Democrats this is a person that is running against
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another billionaire which is Trump and so if you have two people who are now on equal footing and it is the Trump versus
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Howes this person get a lot of people in this country I suspect let them cook go
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that's you're operating you're operating under the Charming delusion that the Democratic party cares about democracy
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this is basically a party that's run by political insiders that hates billionaires and people like this people
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like Warren Buffett and Jamie Diamond they pay the Democrats protection money okay that's how Democrats see them we're
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going to go shake them down to get money from them they're not going to hand over
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the Reigns of the party don't disagree IE but let me ask you a question this this is this is what Trump
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didum he rewrote the rules of the Party by running you're right no he sh no hold
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on he ran and shattered the party the established power structure remember it was it was the bush family's party when
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Trump first ran Jeb was supposed to be the nominee right he was inherit the mantle from W the way that W
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inherited from his father and Trump came in there and appealed directly to Republican primary voters and called the
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forever Wars a mistake and said he was going to build the wall and said he's going to reset things with China issues
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that were latent in the Republican party and he took over the Republican Party the way you're supposed to through
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democracy through voting that opportunity is gone here because the Democratic primaries happened last year
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and the Biden team ensured that he would basically win the primaries handily so they control all the delegates remember
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that totally they control the delegates they're not going to release them to a Jamie Diamond or some other billionaire
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let me ask the party let me let me ask you a question so if they if they end up facing the terminal nature of this which
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is if we don't put someone in that can win we lose we are not going to win yeah it is over why do you think that KLA
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can't win that's their thinking right now is that she stands a better shot than bid let's assume let's assume that
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they take a of the PO they take a Read Of The Nation they actually do a real look at the circumstances on the ground
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which is that she is not going to win if they looked at that and they said you know what we need to win and some sense
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comes into the head of the leaders of the democratic party and they say who can win and a person like Jamie Diamond
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plls that he can win there is a chance I think that maybe they say this is how we're going to get back to the White
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House they're never going to hand the Reigns of of the party to a total outside the Democratic party is the
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ultimate insider party and they are going to pick an insid it's insiders picking insiders and I think they've
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realized over the past week imp particular that they cannot sidestep around KLA Harris both because it would
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be a slap in the face to her constituency and the money issue so it's commo or a bus for them it's either
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commo or I think it's a really good it's a really good point what we'll see is just how rational the Democratic party
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leadership is are they going to continue to play based on Insider first principles or will they actually take a
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first principal's point of view on how do we win the election and I think it will be very revealing about how the
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leaders of the democratic party think based on the decision they make and they're donors for you well I don't know
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if that's true because I actually think that there's a because the donors are fleeing the ship right yeah there's a
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rift between the donor class and the Democratic party leadership correct and I think the donor class doesn't want to
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lose and by the way Saks what you're saying is probably right but I think it could actually end up being a signal
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that there might be a change in how the who the donors end up supporting the next go around um for a to realize a
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leadership change in the Democratic party look what what the prediction markets are showing is that it's not
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going to be a free-for-all it's either going to be Harris or Biden I mean that's what the prediction markets are
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showing and I think that's fundamentally right uh but look I I think there's real
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danger here to the to the country in this because what a lot of people are saying and I guess it makes sense is
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that if Biden's not fit to run again how is he fit to serve out the rest of his term as to serve his term he's got to
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resign okay so if he resigns and that's probably the thing that helps Harris the
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most right because now she gets sworn in as commanderin-chief she's the president
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of the United States President yeah it's a big it's a major glow up for her and it imuse her with all of this gravitas
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and credibility that she's now the president of the United States they can send her to G7 meetings and deal with
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other world leaders they've got four months to basically take this candidate who everyone thought was ready remember
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a year ago during the primaries when Biden ran again one of the reasons why is because everyone said that Comm is
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not ready you know every interview she does is basically a cackle or word salad in any
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event no one thought she was ready now they have like basically made her seem much more significant by giving her the
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presidency but my point is this we're in the middle of a war we're in the middle of a war with
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Russia just a week or two ago we are Russ we're in the war or we're providing weapons both a week or two ago American
00:21:05
cluster bombs were used to kill Russian civilians sunbathing on the beach in cria okay our weapons are targeting
00:21:15
killing Russian civilians the Russians in response to that said we are no longer in a state of peace with the
00:21:22
United States they did not say we're in a state of War but they said we're no longer in a state of peace and the
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Russians have indicated that they may escalate horizontally by giving Advanced weapons to our enemies for example
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they've talked about giving cruise missiles to the hoodies okay so all of this is happening right now in real time
00:21:40
on the world stage and you're going to remove Biden who look I don't like Biden's
00:21:45
policies and I don't think he's compos menus for more than a few hours a day but I would still rather have Biden as
00:21:53
commander-in-chief for the next six months then take the risk of putting Harrison there who's inexperience
00:21:59
who's a lightweight and who might want to prove how tough she is let's get chath in for the final word here chath
00:22:05
your thoughts on what's going to happen make your prediction between now and September what what do you think's the
00:22:10
the the mid game here before we get to the end game I honestly don't know but I think
00:22:16
that we are in a precarious place where things are going to get worse Biden actually
00:22:24
approved private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to to fight Americans will be on the battlefield as
00:22:32
of I think this was just a a few days ago if you remember the movie Wag the Dog I think that it starts to create all
00:22:40
these weird scenarios where people will want to create major distractions to try
00:22:45
to keep the evidence and the attention away from this core issue that after the debate
00:22:51
everybody is focused on and I think the reality is that if you were accused if any of you were accused of being
00:22:57
mentally incap itated what you would probably do is go on every single talk show go on every single news show go on
00:23:04
every single podcast press conference you would just do so much public facing work so as to completely dispel this
00:23:12
idea so that you could firmly say it was a cold although now this week it's jet lag it was it was jet lag C the time of
00:23:21
day whatever it was you'd be able to just completely take the wind out of the sales I think we're still getting only a
00:23:29
controlled dribble of information and access to the president of the United States so he's going to be on
00:23:35
Stephanopoulos he's going to show up for a NATO meeting and so you're only seeing
00:23:41
drips and drabs of somebody who now a lot of people think is not in a position not just to run but let alone run the
00:23:47
country you said last week Democratic party will have a a meaningful reset still still thinking that sh the issue
00:23:54
that the Democrats will have to face is the person that they probably want to run is is someone different than kamla
00:24:00
Harris and the problem that they're going to have to confront is there's a part of it which is fundraising and I do
00:24:06
think that David's right there was an article in the Ft where one of the oped writers said they're in this sort of
00:24:11
identity politics trap in sorts because they will have to run her no matter what
00:24:16
and even if somebody did show up with the financial wherewithal and I think freeberg actually brings up a really
00:24:22
interesting thought experiment if there was somebody that could take the Democratic mantle who could completely
00:24:28
self fund their campaign but he happened to be just a white man what would the Democrats do relative
00:24:36
to K Harris and I think that they would be in kns around what to do because of the identity politics issue I think they
00:24:43
have made it an important issue this idea of inclusiveness as they've defined it got it so it sets up for I think a
00:24:50
very complicated summer yeah the other thing you have to keep in mind is how the Electoral College works and how the
00:24:56
ballot system works is that you don't infinite time you have to get all of this wrapped up and cinched up by the
00:25:02
middle of August at the latest and so we're very much on like a four or six week shot clock and I don't
00:25:09
think the Democrats are doing what they need to do in order to completely take the wind out of the sales of this
00:25:17
narrative that Biden is not prepared or capable and the only way that you can do
00:25:21
that is by having him appear 24x7 in real time in front of hundreds of millions of people as often as possible
00:25:29
and they're just not and so since they're not doing it they had ample time to do it he's yeah he's he's obviously
00:25:35
and by the way the the other problem that it creates is that you're starting to see some of these fissures inside of
00:25:40
the team there was a really charged article from axios that dropped which basically said that there are three
00:25:46
people that have corded off access to the president it named yeah that was weird Joe Biden and tomasini and some
00:25:51
other person and my initial thought when I read this was other than Joe Biden who's a recognizable person I had no
00:25:57
idea who these other two people were and I thought that's really precise for somebody like that who has inside access
00:26:04
to all of these sort of insiders to put that article up so I think you're starting to see the sort of leaks in the
00:26:11
fissures yeah and then that's sort of this next phase that will make things a little bit ugly and contorted let me ask
00:26:17
one question here because we got we got to move on to the Supreme Court stuff Sachs two poor question one is
00:26:24
there a chance that he has had a diagnosis already and they're covering that up and two if they covered up
00:26:30
something like that what is the ramification of it because it's clear to everybody he's in cognitive decline it's
00:26:39
clear it's been a couple of years of cognitive decline no no no that that was asked of kjp in a press conference
00:26:45
yesterday she was very explicit no and the reason no that she doesn't know she doesn't know no no no the answer was
00:26:51
much more explicit has he been diagnosed and she said no and the reason she said
00:26:56
no is because that is very credible for to say because he hasn't taken the tests
00:27:01
okay so that's your there look it was obvious now for months if not years that there's been a huge cover up of his
00:27:07
cognitive decline and the media has participated in this anyone who raised that question was treated as being a
00:27:13
partisan or a liar and just for a good example of this I know you described George Stephanopoulos as a straight
00:27:19
shooter but when Nikki Haley was on his show a few months ago and I'm not a fan of Nikki haly at all but she started
00:27:25
making this point and Stephanopoulos L wouldn't let her finish I mean basically shouted her down so the media was
00:27:32
actively suppressing the story you take Morning Joe a scarsborough he was saying
00:27:37
that this version of Biden is the best he's ever been I we've been hearing all of that kind of stuff for months they
00:27:42
were describing true videos showing Biden being out of it they were describing those as being fakes clean
00:27:49
fakes they invented this new term for perfectly real videos that basically would reflect his condition so the media
00:27:55
has been engaged in a gigantic cover up of this and as a result the country is in really bad shape
00:28:02
because we have to go through the next six months either with a scen out president who has limited cognition or
00:28:09
we could end up with a new president who has untested inexperienced and based on
00:28:15
every interview she's given in the last four years appears to be completely clueless at a moment in time where I
00:28:21
think we have the most dangerous foreign policy situation since the Cuban Missile
00:28:26
Crisis this a really horrible situation and hold on it's it's the media Bears a lot lot of the responsibility and what
00:28:32
should have happened okay what should have happened is we should have had a robust Democratic primary a year ago
00:28:39
sure based on concerns about Biden's cognitive abilities reported by an honest media we never had that yeah so
00:28:47
did you guys see this clip by the way there's a clip on Twitter where somebody put together a clip on next six minutes
00:28:53
of 100 sort of spokespeople proxies and they all had the same thing to say about President Biden which is he
00:29:02
is sharp as attack and it was all sharp as attack which end of the attack the round part what was so funny to me is I
00:29:09
thought to myself if I asked a hundred people on the street what do you think of Elon Musk you'd have a hundred
00:29:15
different statements there' be a general theme but you would not have even 50 people repeat the exact talking points
00:29:22
obviously and so you have this funny situation where a hundred different people were basically saying the exact
00:29:28
same talking point so it's not even a point of view it was just something that they were told to say by somebody else
00:29:34
and back to your point both both sides sa is the real issue which is that you don't really have an honest media here
00:29:39
and so there is no check and balance on power right now imagine if this Feeding Frenzy happened a year ago well the
00:29:45
contrast and compare I want to make is everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump and I was thinking about
00:29:51
this the reason why everybody has a point of view about Donald Trump is everything that has happened in his life
00:29:57
is completely transparently documented there really is nothing hidden at this point and so you have a point of view
00:30:03
because you've been given all of the stuff right and there's endless amounts of new stuff that come out about the old
00:30:11
stuff and so you know and that's what's so interesting you have the ability to come to your own decision and it's not
00:30:18
packaged through these filters yet with President Biden I think it's so constrained and
00:30:23
controlled and I think you have to understand and appreciate that decline let's assume that he isn't for the sake
00:30:30
of the United States but if he is in it it only gets worse from here and it compounds in compounds and compounds
00:30:37
that is what happens and so not only do you have to wonder what the next five months are like what does it look like
00:30:43
in 18 and 24 and 36 months that is a really important issue here clearly Biden can't serve a second term but the
00:30:51
question is what what do we do now and I got to say it's amazing to me that the Democrats are not considering
00:30:58
the one option that is kind of obvious which is you let the man run the most dignified campaign he can he's the
00:31:06
candidate you chose and oh satire saaks is back here he is no this is not sa sa this is not satire saxs the real problem
00:31:13
here is the Democrats refuse to lose they want to cling to power however they can they refus to let democracy just
00:31:21
work democracy working would be to do the speedrun I have a question what would you do with the money would you
00:31:25
just not spend it then and just save well this is really interesting so there is an analog okay in 1996 Bob Dole was
00:31:33
the Republican candidate for president and quite frankly he was too old he was seen as a relic Clinton was fairly
00:31:40
popular and it was pretty obvious that he was just a loser and he was going to lose did the Republicans engage in
00:31:46
Shenanigans to try and fix the situation no they just accepted the inevitable that Dole was going to lose and what
00:31:52
they did is they pulled financing from his campaign at least in the final month and they redistributed to House and
00:31:58
Senate candidates and actually they did better in the House and Senate they held
00:32:03
on to the House and Senate I think they lost a few seats but way less than they were expecting to and they kind of ran
00:32:08
on a campaign that you know you can't trust slick Willie so keep us on split the ticket and keep us on as a check
00:32:17
against him and it actually worked fairly well it was the best the Republicans could do but frankly they
00:32:22
let Bob Dole run a dignified campaign my advice to the Democrats would be don't have Biden sign doing a shakeup
00:32:30
Democrats listen to Sachs there's your political counsel if you're if you're a democratic right now when you put an
00:32:36
untested unexperienced clueless president in there who was gonna want to show how tough she is and bring in her
00:32:42
own team of this dangerous situation let Biden run a dignified campaign and lose
00:32:48
my advice to the Democrats is to embrace an outsider give the people what they want freedom of choice freedom to elect
00:32:58
a leader and bring someone in that falls outside of the traditional political spectrum that does not want to hold
00:33:04
public office because it's not their career they can bring money to the table they can bring credibility to the table
00:33:10
and they can win votes and compete effectively against Trump if your goal is to retain the White House
00:33:17
Camala give us two Nam Jamie Diamond Jamie Diamond Bob a second name Bob Iger yeah it's a great one jie bober
00:33:28
one yeah it's called wishcasting you're doing wishcasting SX I'm not speaking about realism I'm speaking I'm speaking
00:33:33
about what it would take to win yes if they actually want to have a shot at winning someone that could win a popular
00:33:38
vote someone that could actually win votes away from Trump because you can't introduce someone like Whitmer or more
00:33:44
this late in the season when no one in the United States knows who the heck this person is but when you have someone
00:33:49
with credibility with Economic and Business success with executive Authority with capital and connections
00:33:55
into the Democratic party but isn't part of the political machine that you and many others in the Democratic party are
00:34:01
now starting to hate let's go you have an opportunity to actually win yes and if they were smart and they got their
00:34:07
together they would say you know what it's time for a change just like the Republicans had to do when into the part
00:34:12
use the Republican Playbook brilliant freeberg brilliant okay well you guys better have a magic lamp with a Genie in
00:34:17
it because that's the only way this is going to happen well listen it's I'm just trying to keep the show fresh okay
00:34:23
okay here we go next topic here we goe get the final word here we go I'm giving freeberg the final Ro he had the best
00:34:31
take I'm giving freeberg the the final word oh you're pulling your McNeil absolutely yeah okay here we go there
00:34:37
were seven rulings in a bunch of scotus activity over the last week but these are really important consequential
00:34:43
decisions we are going to talk about three of them and I'm going to try to get through these quickly obviously you
00:34:50
could talk about these for hours and people will be you know doing case studies on them for a long time but let
00:34:56
me try to do this quick so we can get everybody's take on them the first one I want to talk about is net choice this is
00:35:01
the content moderation cases that you may have heard of there were two very controversial laws passed in Florida and
00:35:07
Texas in 2021 in the wake of January 6th the Florida law if you weren't aware of
00:35:13
it and I don't suspect most people are would cover platforms with over a 100 million monthly active users or 100
00:35:19
million in annual revenue in other words they're targeting X YouTube Facebook meta those kind of sites and they would
00:35:26
require those platforms to notify users if their posts are removed or altered and the platforms would have to make
00:35:32
General disclosures about their operations and policies and the Texas law it was very similar platforms over
00:35:37
50 million monthly active users and it would require them to notify users whose posts were removed and provide an
00:35:43
explanation of why all that kind of stuff both of these laws were challenged in court in 2021 just to give you an
00:35:50
idea like why I think the conservatives were upset about this obviously Trump being suspended indefinitely on Twitter
00:35:59
Facebook and other platforms or the labeling of content like we've seen on our own channel on YouTube net choice is
00:36:05
a tech industry group includes Facebook and YouTube and the parent companies of those and they sued to block these two
00:36:12
laws jce Kagan a liberal wrote the unanimous decision obviously no dissensions here and the majority held
00:36:19
the editorial judgment and the cation of other people's speech is a unique expressive product of its own which
00:36:24
entitles it to first amendment protection so just to give you an example if you wanted to create a social
00:36:29
network where you can't be anonymous like LinkedIn you can do that if you want to do something like Twitter X and
00:36:33
have Anonymous accounts you can do that as well if you want to create a social network with adult content you can do it
00:36:38
or like Zuck is doing on threads interestingly they are downplaying political content obviously other
00:36:44
platforms amplify political content so let me um and so the end of all this in terms of how the court handled it is uh
00:36:54
they offered some guidance and sent the cases back to the lower courts to clarify a bunch of stuff just to keep
00:36:59
this brief shth what are your thoughts on this obviously some of the ideas here like letting users know why they were
00:37:08
banned or why content was taken down I think the overwhelming majority of users would like to have that but is this the
00:37:13
government's role I'm not enough of a legal scholar to know the details of this case except to say that when the
00:37:21
entire court goes in One Direction it's probably because this never should have been brought to the
00:37:28
court in the first place and they're giving a very clear message it wasn't even ideologically strained to figure
00:37:33
out what the right answer should be so sax obviously your chosen party was the one who brought this you have concerns
00:37:40
about the platforms doing this but do you have equal concerns about the government then I guess being the ones
00:37:46
who have to enforce these is this a good ruling well I think that with respect to
00:37:53
the Texas and Florida laws I think their heart was in the right place they were motivated by the right things which was
00:37:58
to reduce censorship on the social media platforms specifically censorship of conservatives which is to say they're
00:38:04
their citizens but those laws probably were overly Broad and they infringed on the
00:38:12
free speech of Corporations because I guess corporations get free speech too and basically what the ruling says is
00:38:18
that content moderation receives the same First Amendment protections as any other kind of speech so the decisions of
00:38:24
what content you're going to keep up or take down on your own property is itself
00:38:31
a speech decision and the government has to respect that so that's what the ruling here was saying I think it's not
00:38:37
a bad decision I wish the Supreme Court however had coupled this with a better decision in the Missouri versus Biden
00:38:43
case which they they basically said that the plaintiffs lack standing to pursue so they didn't necessarily give a
00:38:51
dispositive ruling in that case but they threw it they threw it out and Yeah and
00:38:56
basically what that case was was about was the Biden Administration was engaged in attempts to influence or pressure
00:39:03
social media companies to take down speech it's a practice known as jawboning and I wish they had coupled
00:39:09
this decision with a better decision in in Missouri versus Biden saying the government's not allowed to coer social
00:39:16
networks to take down speech either and they refused to do that so I wouldn't say these are like the greatest set of
00:39:23
decisions with regard to free speech that the Court's ever done hope that they will come back in the future once
00:39:30
they find a plff with the right standing to address that issue yeah that's a key
00:39:34
issue freeberg your thoughts yeah so I've said for a long time we've obviously had conversations about
00:39:40
Twitter and Shadow Banning and some of the other activities on what are typically called social media platforms
00:39:46
at the end of the day these are all as I've shared in the past my belief is they're all content companies they have
00:39:51
a choice as Executives and as editors of those companies to decide how to edit talize the content on their platforms
00:39:59
they can choose to create content with writers that they pay on staff like a newspaper M they can choose to create
00:40:05
content with actors and directors that they pay to create novel video series for them like HBO might or they can
00:40:11
choose to make content creation available to third parties that don't get paid like users and at the end of
00:40:18
the day what they choose to do with that content and how they choose to display that content is up to them as an
00:40:24
editorial platform that is ultimately creating content for other consumers I don't view that user generated content
00:40:30
platforms are a right of the consumers to have access to share their thoughts they have the internet to do that they
00:40:37
have many other places that they can go to to create blogs to create websites to
00:40:41
do whatever else they want to do to express themselves but to have a technological platform that lets them
00:40:47
submit content that then the editors get to decide how and where they show that content I think they should understand
00:40:52
because it's in the terms and conditions when you sign up so I don't believe in social media platforms utilities and I
00:40:58
don't think that the government should have any role in deciding what is or isn't on those platforms this goes both
00:41:04
ways I think that the company should decide what kind of platforms they want to have whether they want to have free
00:41:10
speech that allows inappropriate content or content that might be offensive or whether they want to have a highly
00:41:16
moderated platform to make it more broadly available or appealing to users it's entirely up to them and I really do
00:41:22
appreciate the ruling because I think that the government should have less of a role in intervening and deciding how
00:41:27
companies create content and how they editorialize that content yeah so I think that's well said and I I was in
00:41:32
the same sort of Camp as you freeberg which is this is like a battle of snowflakes here like the Liberals
00:41:37
obviously were cancelling people on these platforms and now like the mag of folks want to come in and have the
00:41:41
government regulate it if you want to compete here just create a new product or service in the market you're on the
00:41:47
board of Rumble sacks like they're doing really well and if you squeeze too tight
00:41:52
and your platform doesn't work it's the marketplace should you know figure out who the winners are and you know it's
00:41:59
it's not a situation where you want the government getting in there because then
00:42:03
they're going to go to a newspaper and there's so much precedent here I you know I actually read some of the of
00:42:08
these rulings which is really interesting they're written phenomenally well will put in the show notes the
00:42:13
actual links to the PDFs of these decisions they're well worth reading and in this case they brought up
00:42:19
a bunch of the previous law was fascinating like people wanted to force a newspaper to allow you know one
00:42:26
candidate to reply and give him space they were like no you can't do that it's their newspaper they decide what they
00:42:32
publish another person wanted to have a corporate newsletter be forced to give information about the other sides you
00:42:39
just don't get to do that I'll just say one more thing what what else is striking is just how insular and
00:42:43
protectionist Texas and Florida are being and it's not just with this law it's also with the lab grown meat or
00:42:49
cultivated meat laws that they've passed and other states are passing similar laws which is limiting innovation in the
00:42:54
state and limiting freedom to operate in the state in order to protect interests
00:42:59
of individuals and corporations that already exist within that state so it's really important to note this isn't a
00:43:04
good or a bad thing but those states are operating in a way the lawmakers of those states are operating in a way
00:43:09
that's trying to protect the interests of the individuals and businesses in the state over the freedoms that might and
00:43:15
the Liberties that might otherwise be available I think we often talk about these states being more free but these
00:43:19
laws and the cultivated meat ban laws in my opinion indicate that these states are actually on the
00:43:24
contrary they're much more kind of protectionist where your take on that sax to freeberg point I mean I think
00:43:29
this this um ruling might have been necessary from a constitutional standpoint because corporations do have
00:43:34
free speech rights but again I would say that I think that the laws of Texas and
00:43:39
Florida were coming from a good place which is they were trying to protect the rights of their citizens to engage in
00:43:45
free speech I think it's just unfortunate that in this case it's a zero some game and as a result those
00:43:51
laws were were invalidated I think that makes sense but I still think we have a problem I agree with you the platforms
00:43:56
have to much power what what is your proposed solution you obviously don't want to have the government in there
00:44:02
like running a newsroom or running Twitter X because you yourself we saying hey the government's too involved in X
00:44:08
and these platforms and doing this jawboning so obviously having them more involved is bad right you're against
00:44:14
them being involved yeah I think it's really tricky to figure out how to solve this got it I think for one thing you
00:44:19
don't want the government jawboning these sites to take down content that clearly should be a free speech
00:44:25
violation I'm disappointed the court didn't get to that I think we're totally missing the bigger picture there's like
00:44:30
a lot of fear-mongering that I think has happened with respect to the Supreme Court and that it's all of a sudden
00:44:38
become some super ideological super rigid super activist place and I think it's in fact much of
00:44:47
the opposite and the data supports that and so I think it's important for people
00:44:51
to know that what's actually happening is that many of these decisions are very much split along non-ideological lines
00:45:00
and I think that that's an important thing so I just like I'm pulling this up and I just want to read some of these
00:45:04
things to you US versus rahimi which is a federal law that prohibits people subjected to domestic violence
00:45:12
restraining orders from having a firearm that was an 8 to1 decision where all but
00:45:16
Thomas supported that makes a lot of sense you would think racial gerrymandering that was
00:45:22
more ideological where it was a conservative Block versus Sodor Brown and Trump V Anderson which is Trump getting
00:45:30
back on the Colorado ballot 90 FDA versus The Alliance for hypocracy versus us which is whether Idaho's
00:45:47
strict abortion law conflicts with the federal law non ideological where it was Gorsuch Alo Thomas and katangi brown
00:45:54
Jackson who descended So It Goes On and on and I think what's so interesting about all of this is that I had thought
00:46:01
that this was not like what it was what I thought what had happened is Trump stacked the Supreme Court all of a
00:46:07
sudden we are ripping all these laws apart this longstanding sort of doctrine of what has passed but yet I think
00:46:16
what's actually happening is people are pretty thoughtfully pushing the responsibility
00:46:22
to the states and I think that the Court's decisions are relatively unpredictable in the sense that it's not
00:46:28
just a conservative Block versus a liberal block I think that's the real story and when you unpack a bunch of
00:46:34
these decisions in that context that's what's so interesting to me is like these are pretty nuanced decisions that
00:46:40
get at the heart of a lot of key important issues happening across non- ideological lines the Jan 6 One katangi
00:46:46
Brown Jackson it was the Biden appointee that basically supported this thing that
00:46:49
may throw out 200 plus convictions for Jan 6 and Amy con bear was on the other side this is an unpredictable Supreme
00:46:55
Court I think they think for themselves they seem to be independent and I think they are coming
00:47:00
to their own conclusions that's the only thing to take away from the distribution
00:47:03
of the votes that should make people feel a little bit better so I think this next ruling is the most important one
00:47:09
and I think it will be the most important one that we've seen with this new court that has three of the nine
00:47:16
justices placed by Trump to your point shth and this one is seisman the Looper versus Rondo decision overturn Chevron
00:47:26
okay so this one takes a little explaining the court overruled a landmark 1984 decision in the chevron
00:47:31
case from 40 years ago for context the original ruling created the Chevron Doctrine where the
00:47:38
government and federal courts generally defer to the stances of federal agencies
00:47:43
unless Congress has written specific laws on an issue the 1984 ruling upheld the epa's interpretation of the Clean
00:47:49
Air Act it's very influential this has been cited by federal courts over 18,000 times in 40 years it was overruled in
00:47:57
another 6 to3 decision where the justice is voted along party lines shof basically this shifts power back to
00:48:03
federal judges and courts instead of administrative agency staff by experts academics all that kind of stuff in the
00:48:09
majority opinion Roberts conservative obviously said the Chevron Doctrine violates the administrative procedures
00:48:16
Act of federal law that directs the courts to review actions taken by federal agencies he also pointed out
00:48:20
that the courts are regularly expected to deal with technical questions so this should not be considered beyond their
00:48:24
ability to scope Kagan a liberal wrote a critical descent she said the agency staff with scientists and experts are
00:48:29
more likely to have the expertise to make these decisions rather than the judges she also pointed out that the
00:48:35
system had been functioning for 40 years and this ruling will create a massive quote jolt to the legal system chth get
00:48:41
in there do you remember when President Biden tried to pass the budget two years
00:48:46
ago and he was one vote short and Joe Mansion ended up putting it over the top but he negotiated what was a redo of a
00:48:56
bunch of Regulation and he was promised that there would be this regulatory overhaul that happened and that was sort
00:49:04
of why he had decided to vote for that budget bill it ended up not happening so the reason why I think he had saw that
00:49:13
and he discussed this is that there are so many businesses that now suffer from the regulations of these agencies
00:49:20
because when the agency enacted that regulation it was just a different time and place and there was no clean way to
00:49:28
go back to an independent body and say I understand what your intention was in 1985 when you wrote that regulation but
00:49:36
in 2024 things have changed can we reconsider and basically what the courts have done now will allow
00:49:45
companies who believe that regulations are either overwrought or misguided for today's market landscape
00:49:52
and bring it to an independent Judiciary and have them decide and I think that that's a very reasonable check and
00:49:59
balance and I think that's that makes a lot of sense folks can pass laws and if folks believe that those laws do you
00:50:06
undo harm now you have a mechanism to go and actually explain your case to somebody independent who can then make a
00:50:13
judgment I think that that's a good check and balance freberg I know this was the one you most wanted to talk
00:50:18
about uh what's your take on this end of the age of experts and throwing things back to the court what will be the
00:50:25
practical ramifications I know how much experience you guys have had dealing with Federal Regulators you have a lot
00:50:34
more than I think agencies and yeah I've worked in a lot across a number of federal agencies in in businesses I've
00:50:40
been involved in and I can tell you it is as I'm sure you would expect there's a lot of bureaucratic morass in in these
00:50:48
agencies and if you think about it it's because the agencies are effectively under the Chevron Doctrine vested
00:50:56
Unlimited lied authority to create rules and regulations that they then determine
00:51:02
are meant to represent the laws that were passed by Congress but more often than not those rules and regulations
00:51:08
begin to bleed outside of the lines of the intention of the laws when they were passed and this is because those
00:51:17
agencies by creating new rules and regulations this isn't this isn't some like you know I have a subversive reason
00:51:24
for doing this but these agencies have an incentive for creating more rules and regulations because they then get to go
00:51:31
back to Congress and ask for more budget and hire more people and grow the importance and the scale of their agency
00:51:39
this is the natural kind of organic growth that arises in any living system and any organization of individuals is
00:51:46
also a living system and has the same incentive it wants to have more resources it wants to get bigger it
00:51:52
wants to do more stuff it wants to be more important and the Chevron Doctrine has allowed agencies to operate
00:51:59
independent and outside of the lines that were defined in the laws that were passed that that then vested them this
00:52:05
Authority that then they can go and say I want more budget I want to get bigger and I'm optimistic that this ruling will
00:52:12
limit the agency's authorities and limit their ability to create more bureaucratic overhead more headcount
00:52:19
more individuals that need to now go and administer the rules and regulations that they themselves create and so I'm
00:52:26
actually very optimistic and hopeful about this uh this change now the downside the negative to this is that
00:52:32
there are a number of really important regulatory roles that agencies have come to play that never got passed as bills
00:52:41
like Environmental Protection rules and there's a negative consequence that will
00:52:46
arise to some degree with respect to health of the environment health of people Etc but I think net net Congress
00:52:52
needs to do its job it needs to go back to session and it needs to sit down needs to pass laws that really clearly
00:52:58
Define what is and what isn't going to be legal going forward and then the agencies operate strictly within those
00:53:04
bounds so so to recap it could get a little messy but it's a better healthier system because this system has become
00:53:10
super bloated over 40 years that was my take on it as well saak what's your take
00:53:15
on this this feels like a a huge win to me what do you think well I agree with that and I agree with what freeberg said
00:53:21
look when when this decision the Chevron decision came down in 1984 at the of the
00:53:26
Reagan Revolution conservatives actually liked it they they praised it because we
00:53:31
were coming off a period of an activist Court you know the the Warren court and they thought that shifting power from
00:53:38
the courts to the agencies would actually be a good move well it turns out it completely backfired um which
00:53:43
Cheveron when it came out was not a widely noticed decision since then it's been cited 18,000 Times by federal
00:53:49
courts it's turned out to be enormously important and influential and the reason
00:53:54
for all those citations is it's the core s deferring to the ru making of an agency you know what Chevron basically
00:54:00
says is as long as the agency's interpretation is reasonable or you could say not unreasonable then the
00:54:07
agency can basically promulgate the rule and what this has led to is an orgy of rulle making by all these federal
00:54:13
agencies and so most of our laws now effectively are being made by unelected bureaucrats who are part of this
00:54:22
three-letter alphabet soup of government agencies it's not the Congress it's not
00:54:25
the court it's not the president it's this fourth branch of government that's not in the Constitution which is the
00:54:31
administrative State and so the administr administrative state has become incredibly powerful as a result
00:54:36
of Chevron Doctrine and now I think by reversing it you actually give a chance for the restoration of democracy
00:54:44
basically the agencies are not empowered to essentially make whatever rules they
00:54:48
want as long as they superficially appear reasonable they actually have to show that their rules are within a
00:54:55
statute that they that they were directed by Congress to effectively engage in the ru making so this is a
00:55:00
step in the right direction for sure but again the real problem here is reigning
00:55:03
in this unelected administrative State yeah jamat any final thoughts here as we move on to the next
00:55:10
one seems like the Supreme Court is doing a great job agree all nine of them I mean they really they really seem to
00:55:18
be doing a tremendous job I give them a lot of credit I feel like I've become a conservative maybe I'm a conservative
00:55:25
nowas I don't know I I may have to sit down and confess to you because I read a number of these decisions and I was like
00:55:31
I agree I agree and this is supposed to be a conservative court so I'm not sure it's actually it's not it's not
00:55:37
it's an originalist court it's not a conservative Court this is what I'm saying like these are words that are
00:55:41
planted by people that want you to believe their version of the LIE great point there are a lot of
00:55:48
originalists on the court and what the originalist doctrine says and sxs you can correct me is I read the
00:55:54
Constitution with faith and Fidelity and I just see what it's what it says not I
00:55:59
interpret it not I fill in the words I just what it says is what we're allowed and I think that there's some there's a
00:56:05
really good version of America in that view of the world yeah I mean I would say it's not even necessarily an
00:56:12
originalist or conservative court it's a 333 Court meaning there's three conservatives there's three liberals and
00:56:17
there's three Justice in the middle you have this middle block led by the Chief Justice Roberts with Kavanagh and
00:56:23
Barrett and then you got the conservatives with gorsa and Thomas and Alo and sometimes the middle block goes
00:56:30
with the Liberals sometimes it goes with the conservatives again it's more of like a triangle and as we know the
00:56:36
triangle is in best shape for equipo right because it creates balance and I think what we have right now is a
00:56:41
balance court and I think on the whole they've done a good job and I think it's kind of sad that in reaction to some of
00:56:47
these decisions you've got powerful lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren who are explicitly calling for packing the court
00:56:54
they're actually saying you know put a bunch of Justice on here to ruin this equipoise that we have I think it's
00:56:59
really sad I think that the court right now is one of the last highly functional
00:57:03
institutions in American public life and for elected leaders to be calling for its destruction is just sad well I you
00:57:11
know I think what here and here's an image from axio showing you know six Republican nominated and three Democrat
00:57:19
nominated I think to give the counterargument you know roie way um being overturned was something the
00:57:25
majority of the country didn't want these three people were added For That explicit Purpose By Trump people have
00:57:32
trauma uh pain over that reasonably I think and then the truth is though if they are you know just one standard
00:57:40
deviation here as you can see in this axios chart which is based on some data I don't I don't trust this chart I think
00:57:48
this this chart is worthless Jason I think let exp actual articles no but I'm saying look at the actual how they voted
00:57:55
if you look at it my point is this is meaningless a child could have drawn this it means nothing
00:57:59
no no a child didn't draw it chamat this was how do you know read because I'm reading the source because I'm reading
00:58:05
the source of the data this is based on something called The Martin Quinn score an analysis by political scientist
00:58:10
Andrew Martin Kevin Quinn known as the Martin Quinn score places judges on an IDE ideological Spectrum a lower score
00:58:17
indicates a more liberal Justice where a higher score indicates a more conservative Justice and then they went
00:58:23
through all of their decisions subjective classifier a subjective classifier was created by these two
00:58:30
random people and you're now Regita the score like it means something no I think
00:58:34
it's an interesting way it's an interesting chart to discuss to understand a little bit of their
00:58:40
meanings what I would encourage anybody to do is to look at the actual substance
00:58:45
of the decisions and the votes and what you will see is that people are not as easily predictable as that chart would
00:58:52
show and I think that's what's important uh okay um I think that chart supports exactly
00:59:00
what you just said Sachs right yeah I mean not exactly I mean again I view it as a 333 Court a lot of other
00:59:08
people have written about that and they've got their own diagrams and charts to show that look I think it's a
00:59:12
court like I said in equipoise I don't think it's partisan I think it's it's being reasonably fair I don't agree with
00:59:18
every single ruling like I said I would have liked to seen a different result in
00:59:23
Biden V Missouri however I think on the whole they're doing a good job and it really should be a scandal that you've
00:59:28
got powerful lawmakers explicitly calling for the court to be packed I mean that would be a disaster right
00:59:35
because you have nine justices which is a good number you try to increase that to 13 then the next time the Republicans
00:59:40
have control they're going to increase it to 15 or 21 or whatever and pretty soon we're going to have 100 justices on
00:59:46
the court you'll ruin it you know really nine justices should be a constitutional
00:59:50
requirement we should just fix it at nine and not mess with that so it's just SC handless to me that you've got
00:59:57
politicians who are reacting to reasonable Decisions by saying that we need to pack the court okay quick it
01:00:04
here this is an important story for you choth Scot has also agreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its
01:00:09
next term which starts in October the law in questions will it will it impact incognito mode because if it is
01:00:19
just you're in trouble just I think there's a did you fle it or are you could you imagine if
01:00:28
they banned incognito mode I think you might want to do a deep dive into how Incognito incognito mode is you may want
01:00:35
to get a VPN I'm pretty sure Texas is GNA ban incognito mode exactly Texas and Florida I think a couple of these sites
01:00:45
because of the threat of you know this these laws of ageg gating they've just decided to wholesale leave certain
01:00:54
states by IP address therefore for the sale of vpns in Texas went up because when you went to certain porn sites and
01:01:00
said hey because of Texas's proposing these laws we're not going to allow you to visit this website Nick do the NBC
01:01:07
thing the more you know the more you know okay scotus agreed to hear a case on the limits of online porn in its next
01:01:16
term which starts in October the law in question was passed by Texas legislature
01:01:20
in 2023 requires porn sites to verify the age of their users and restrict access for minors it seems reasonable
01:01:26
fifth Circuit Court in New Orleans upheld the law sending it to the Supreme Court if upheld users would have to
01:01:30
submit personal info that verifies their over 18 to watch porn the law is opposed
01:01:36
by the ACLU and the Free Speech Coalition which is a trade group representing adult entertainers and
01:01:41
companies they argue it places an undue burden on adults wishing to access constitutionally protected free
01:01:46
expression oh speaking of porn and its related businesses the Rick's Cabaret recession
01:01:54
index is back on did you guys see this it was on Twitter so Rick's Cabaret is a collection of public strip clubs
01:02:01
and and and what's interesting about the Rick's Cabaret stock price is that it has pre-aged the last two recessions and
01:02:08
whenever the stock Dives people people have said it actually predicts an upcoming recession and the stock just
01:02:17
you know puked up like 25 or 30% in the last week oh boy there it is so people do not have the cheddar to go to the
01:02:26
Cabaret and go splashy cashy I got it Cabaret it's called it's called Rick's Cabaret but the strip club index
01:02:34
says a recession is is on the offense I prefer Cabaret it's just it's more Charming all right so I'm surprised
01:02:42
you're not discussing the immunity case that's the one that all the pundit hyperventilating I made it I made it
01:02:48
last I'll uh counter the Rick's ceret recession indicator as valid anymore based on the theory of our good friend
01:02:57
on the group chat who I think has done a very good job highlighting that the strip club industry has been decimated
01:03:02
by only fans as a result Rick's Cabaret is more likely down because of only fans
01:03:07
and the lack of shall we say employee base available to work in these establishments because
01:03:15
they make more money working online at only fans now that was a theory post posited by one of our good friends but
01:03:21
you got to think that that showed up in the data at least a year or two years ago know cuz how long has only fans been
01:03:27
around a long time I'm guessing right but I Peak during covid because you know you couldn't go to a cabaret if you
01:03:33
wanted to take in a cabaret show and have a you know a bottle of champagne at a cabaret show you couldn't
01:03:40
do it so you're the thesis of our friend is the the thesis of our friend yeah only fans took all the
01:03:49
entertainers out of the strip club industry because they make more money online cabet Cabaret industry uh the
01:03:54
Cabaret industry sorry please edit that Nick and as a result the quality of the product at the Cabaret business has
01:04:01
declined and as a result Revenue has declined and it took a little bit of time to earn that in so so the virtual
01:04:06
Cabaret industry that's our friends Fury we give him a big shout out we will yeah
01:04:11
shout out beep call it the beep Theory yeah the beep Theory so the the Elite Cabaret
01:04:17
artists can make more money on only fans they go there and then that leaves the less refined artists
01:04:27
real why it's so good so pure I'm trying to navigate this and not get labeled sax
01:04:34
where are you on this what's your opinion SX trying to get into cabinet position
01:04:41
so uh anyway so far 16 red states have passed or agreed to pass age G j's got the Dunder Mifflin index of
01:04:49
whatever sorry I couldn't hear it you guys started laughing too quickly say it again cut out you had the dunder mlin
01:04:56
score of XYZ Mifflin so quick J I'll check the Dr Mifflin score what do it say I don't understand the dunder M
01:05:13
score didn't you ever watch the office I don't watch the office office oh my God
01:05:17
J what is wrong with you you I never got into it I never got into it I've probably watched it like four times
01:05:23
that's the paper company where they work yeah apparently we've had a huge victory for
01:05:28
Trump in the immunity case Trump sued in this case based on special counsil Jack
01:05:33
Smith's prosecution of trump for alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his role in January 6 if you don't
01:05:41
remember that case since there's so many cases against Trump this was uh based on Trump
01:05:47
pressuring Mike Pence to not certify the election his phone call to get the 11,780 votes that were missing in
01:05:55
Georgia or Giuliani and the wackpack trying to fake electorates to overturn the election Trump argued that he should
01:06:02
be immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was President cotus ruled 63 along party lines that former
01:06:11
presidents can't face prosecution for actions that related to core powers of their offit office and official official
01:06:19
official that was the core powers of their office and that all official Act receive at least the broad presumption
01:06:28
of immunity here's the quote under our constitutional structure of separated Powers the nature of Presidential Power
01:06:34
entitles former president to Absolute immunity for criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and
01:06:41
preclusive constitutional Authority and he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for All His
01:06:48
official acts there is no immunity for unofficial acts that would be outside the duty of the President's chief
01:06:55
justice Roberts emphasized that decision that the decision doesn't necessarily mean
01:06:59
presidents are above the law in her dissenting opinion justice so to Mayor wrote that under the new ruling criminal
01:07:07
law can't be applied to presidents even if they misuse their office for personal
01:07:11
gain she wrote that if the president orders the Navy SEAL Team Six to assassinate a political rival he is now
01:07:16
insulated from Criminal prosecution another quote the president is now a king Above the Law she closed with this
01:07:22
line with fear for our democracy I descent notably this breaks a tradition of closing with I respectfully descent
01:07:29
so Trump's attempts to overturn the election results case now hinges on whether Trump's conduct was Private or
01:07:36
related to his official Duty for example the lower courts now have to determine when Trump pressured Pence to not
01:07:43
certify the election if that was an official business of being president or not or when he called Georgia and said
01:07:50
hey can you find me 11,000 votes was that official Duty or was it outside his duty
01:07:56
president Trump has already cited the immunity ruling in requesting a New York judge throw out his conviction in the
01:08:01
hush money case sentencing for that was pushed back from July 11 to September because of this ruling Sach there's your
01:08:08
wrong what do you think J well ja what do you think this is I'm really curious what I mean I I read the or the I'm
01:08:17
halfway through the the original PDF and I do think the president needs immunity
01:08:24
obviously for conducting business and then I do think if they step outside the lines
01:08:29
they should not have immunity and then the devil will be in the details here and that's what courts and juries exist
01:08:36
to do so when he told Mike Pence to not certify the election he's obviously not doing that as part of his duty as
01:08:44
president when he called Georgia to get the 11,000 votes he was not doing that that's why he had outside counsil there
01:08:51
that's why he hired Giuliani in the wackpack what do you think what do you think of s to was hypothetical of using
01:08:56
Seal Team 6 to kill a political Rival Well I that was you think that that's you think that he would be immune from
01:09:02
Pro anybody would be immune from prosecution for that no that seemed a little bit hysterical and actually that
01:09:07
came up in the discussions I actually listened to the audio version of this when they were
01:09:13
doing the the Q&A basically um and and I think you listened to it too freeberg when had talked about it so yeah I think
01:09:20
the devil will be in the details here and how they execute it obviously you need to have immunity if you're going to
01:09:26
I don't know take actions you know to assassinate Osama Bin Laden right or or whatever it is but you know it's it is a
01:09:33
a bit concerning this concept of being able to Shield the president when he asks I don't know the Attorney General
01:09:42
to do something illegal so these are the details that are going to need to be worked out here and obviously it's a
01:09:47
split decision so the Supreme Court themselves can't agree on this I think that there's just so much we don't know
01:09:52
about what it takes to be the president of the United States the example that I gave you guys in the group chat is like
01:09:57
look at the whole Iran Contra affair how complicated was that can any of us really understand what all of the
01:10:03
interplay was when Ronald Reagan decides to work around a weapons embargo sell weapons to Iran take money funnel it and
01:10:13
fund descend denas in the middle of all of that there was a huge cocaine trade that was kind of enabled or
01:10:21
supported I mean who how do we know I think there's just a lot of attitude that you give to the one person that you
01:10:28
elect to be president and so maybe it's just a good reminder for all of us that we are electing one person we cannot be
01:10:34
electing five or six people we're not electing a shadow cabinet we're electing one person and this is just a reminder
01:10:40
of how much power that one person has saak you have thoughts I think this was an easy
01:10:47
decision all the majority did was codify explicitly what has long been presumed that presence and joy Brad immunity for
01:10:55
official acts that they undertake in the exercise of their constitutional Authority and the duties of their office
01:11:02
it was established decades ago that presidents enjoy broad immunity from civil lawsuits so it's already been the
01:11:09
case that presidents can't be sued civy well criminal liability is even harder to prove so if you have the broad
01:11:16
immunity from civil you should have broad immunity from Criminal as well and the Supreme Court I think had never
01:11:23
ruled on criminal immunity because they never had to no former president's ever been subjected to the type of lawfare
01:11:28
that's been deployed against Trump who also happens to be the political opponent of the current president so I
01:11:34
think it's a shame that the Supreme Court has had to rule on this did they get every detail right I don't know I
01:11:40
don't know what it means for the future however I know the reason they're doing it which is we've had this unprecedent
01:11:46
lawfare against Trump and that's why they've been forced to do this so ultimately I think this is the right
01:11:51
decision no it does not authorize drone strikes against the president's political enemies that's insane it does
01:11:57
not make the president Above the Law or a king and I think that Roberts in his ruling said the the key things he said
01:12:05
that the desense position in the end boils down to ignoring the Constitution separation of powers and the Court's
01:12:12
presedent and instead fearmongers on the basis of extreme hypotheticals and then he says that the
01:12:20
desense Overlook the more likely Prospect of an executive branch that cannibalizes it self with each
01:12:26
successive president free to prosecute his predecessors yet unable to boldly and fearlessly carry out his duties for
01:12:34
fear that he may be next I think that's really the key line here is that you're posing all these insane hypotheticals
01:12:41
instead of recognizing the Practical reality that if you don't give presidents immunity then the next
01:12:47
president's going to prosecute the old president and future presidents will be hamstrung in doing this very important
01:12:53
job that's already cold enough so I think that this was just a necessary decision there was no way around it and
01:13:01
the president already has civil immunity you got to give him criminal immunity too freeberg your thoughts I guess the
01:13:06
the steel man on the other side would be you know Trump doing things like calling
01:13:11
Georgia and asking to find votes or pressuring the president the vice president to overturn the election
01:13:18
results after 60 fil legal cases you know is what's concerning the other side so do you have a take on it I think that
01:13:26
the distinction between acting in their executive capacity as president of the United States versus their personal
01:13:36
capacity as an individual candidate or an individual that could benefit through some other means is a
01:13:43
really good distinction I think how the courts ultimately adjudicate that distinction is what's still ahead but I
01:13:50
do think that the clarity of that distinction is critical I it seems like the right thing how this is going to
01:13:56
play out with respect to election interference does interfering in the election constitute one's role as an
01:14:02
executive overseeing the federal election process or does it constitutes one's personal benefits that may arise
01:14:09
if one is individually elected is the key determinant that the lower court will likely have to make maybe that gets
01:14:15
kicked back up again in the future if there's a disagreement over the decision that the court does make
01:14:21
with regards to that distinction where do you stand on that saxs you previous episodes that said you didn't believe in
01:14:26
this election interference and you thought Trump lost have you changed your position on that or are you still in
01:14:32
that position uh that's totally irrelevant to the Court's decision let me ask follow up to that then so in the
01:14:37
case of do you think Trump was acting officially when he asked Georgia to find the votes when he asked Pence to
01:14:43
overturn the election or do you think he was acting in his duty I think that that
01:14:48
what you just described there is what's known as a question of fact in the legal
01:14:52
system there are questions of Law and questions of fact and what the Supreme Court has done is given us a Doctrine
01:14:59
they've answered the question of law they've basically given us a three-part test they've said that when the
01:15:03
president acts within his exclusive constitutional Authority he gets broad immunity when he does an official duty
01:15:09
but that's not in that category he gets presumptive immunity meaning that the prosecutor can still go after him they
01:15:15
just have to rebut the presumption and when he gauges in a personal act there's no immunity so look what has to happen
01:15:22
now is if Jack Smith wants to continue this prosecution of trump he's going to have to make the argument that Trump's
01:15:28
Acts were either personal or were part of his duties but he's going to rebut the presumption so th that is the now
01:15:36
the question of fact that Jack Smith would have to litigate and I'm not going to litigate it here I don't know the
01:15:42
answer to that but again I would separate questions of Law and questions of fact what the Supreme Court has done
01:15:46
I think has given us a useful doctrine that the presidency now needs in light of the reality of laware see this is the
01:15:55
I think chth that is super fascinating because I could see President Trump and and his lawyers saying hey very simple
01:16:02
you know we we think there was election interference so yeah we called Georgia to make sure that those 11,000 votes
01:16:09
were were there and hey you know we thought this was not a fair election so I was acting in my duty and when I told
01:16:14
Pence to not certify the election I can see them making that argument what do you
01:16:19
think I don't I don't know the specifics of these cases but ah I think it's going
01:16:24
to force a prosecutor to have a really strong point of view and have evidence and then
01:16:29
go after somebody but again I think you're focusing too much on Trump Robert said in the decision you have to look
01:16:38
past the exigencies of the current moment this is a set of rules that's about past presidents and future
01:16:43
presidents this is for forever and so that's the most important thing here which is there's a set of
01:16:49
rules that I think we can all agree on because the man that we all elect dutifully El
01:16:55
is the most powerful person in the world we knew it before we know it now so even
01:17:01
more important that we make sure we're picking one person and that person is capable of doing the job you may not
01:17:08
agree but they need to be competent and capable of doing the job yeah well they definitely have to be competent and this
01:17:15
case was brought by Trump over this specific issue so I think that's if we look at this specific judgment here
01:17:22
that's what they're going to have to determine in the coming months or years with this case is was he
01:17:27
acting in his duty or was he not that's going to be a really between between this ruling and another case called
01:17:34
fiser versus us which is the January 6 obstruction case where the Supreme Court in a six3 majority found that sarban
01:17:42
Oxley was being misused to create a new crime called obstructing an official proceeding when you combine that
01:17:49
judgment with this judgment I think Jack Smith should just resign it's pretty clear that suprem Court has kicked the
01:17:55
legs out from under his case and by the way katangi katangi Jackson supported that decision that's right so again not
01:18:01
a not a hypological not a hyper paron Court they just ruled that starban oxy had nothing to do with what happened on
01:18:09
January 6 and it was being misused by a creative prosecutor and I told you when these jacksmith cases first came I said
01:18:16
it's not the job of a prosecutor to be creative their job is to narrowly interpret the law and to enforce the law
01:18:22
and you combine these rulings together and you can see that Jack Smith has now an even more uphill battle it's time for
01:18:29
him to resign stop Ric 200 convictions it's not just one two it's 200 of them small percentage of the
01:18:38
overall convictions though they took hundreds of people who did not engage in any violence on January 6 many of them
01:18:44
just wandered through an Open Door in the capital and they were prosecuted to the hillt they were sent to jail for
01:18:50
that because this doj wanted to send a statement they wanted to use them as a political talking point and that's
01:18:57
a shame I think hundreds of people were horribly mistreated by the judicial system as as part of a political
01:19:05
prosecution now there are except for the ones who beat police and brought problem
01:19:10
putting those people in jail no problem anyone who use violence go directly to jail do not pass go but some of these
01:19:16
people just took a tore through the capital all those people got suspended sentences and trespassing they to Jail
01:19:24
the ones who went chansley spent three years in jail yeah the ones who went to jail were the ones who beat cops or
01:19:31
chansley that just because he wore the Viking remember the guy with the Viking oh yeah
01:19:36
so they also went to jail Shaman if you did damage if you vandalized yeah that was the other reason people went to jam
01:19:42
I saw a video of him getting a guided tour through the capital I mean if you vandalized a capital building I guess
01:19:47
you have to do something he moved to D around no I think they like shattered the windows and you know he didn't I
01:19:54
never saw any video of him doing that anyway they they picked on him because he was an easy target because he looked
01:19:59
like a weirdo and he had the Viking horns and he has he has a history of mental problems and so they put that man
01:20:07
in jail for years yeah I'm not concerned about him I'm concerned about the ones who brought all the long guns to the
01:20:13
hotels around the capital to have backup Firepower but you know hey uh everybody's got a different opinion on
01:20:19
this we uh that ws Up all In podcast you can you can you can have those concerns
01:20:24
I don't think it lets you put inoc some people in jail yeah I think you can hold
01:20:27
both of those ideas I don't think anybody innocent should go to jail and I don't think the oathkeeper should have
01:20:31
brought guns to the capital okay they didn't they brought him to Virginia just to be clear yeah they brought them to
01:20:36
the hotels around them huge large cashes ingin correct yeah inginia yeah they drove to the capital on January 6th guns
01:20:44
to the hotel I'm not defending them no I'm not defending them I'm just clarifying there were no guns at the
01:20:49
capital because that's they were in the hotel a lie but I don't think innocent people who just wandered through the
01:20:55
capitals should go to jail and that clearly we agree we are we agree they should not go to jail they should get
01:20:59
trespassing tickets okay this episode 186 of the world's number one podcast did Biden resign while we're taping
01:21:08
Biden just went on a campaign call and he said let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and
01:21:13
straightforward as I can I am running no one's pushing me out I'm not leaving I'm
01:21:18
in this race to the end and we're going to win whoa I think it's more likely than not that they're not going to
01:21:23
replace by in because the only feasible alternative is Harris and should' be worse and I I think it's more dangerous
01:21:31
for the country frankly I'd rather to see Biden finish out his term than put someone
01:21:37
new even if he had Trump two bad it's two bad choices jcal and I don't agree with Biden's policies but there's
01:21:45
continuity there okay four the chairman dictator from the home office in Italy jamapa your Sultan of Science and the
01:21:53
Rainman yeah definitely definitely cabinet position David saaks I am the world's greatest moderator of the number
01:22:01
one podcast in the world we'll see you next time byebye love you boys [Applause]
01:22:06
byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:22:17
with it love queen of [Music] besties are that's my dog taking your driveway oh man
01:22:36
myet we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all useless it's like this like sexual
01:22:42
tension that they just need to release [Music] somehow we need to get merch our [Music]
01:23:00
I'm going all in