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hello everybody welcome uh we are live at the all
in headquarters and the all in podcast is now live
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we have 63 people watching already and bear
with us while we get the besties on the
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line i'll be doing my introductions
in just a moment after i tweet this but it is an eventful night and
we had to start early because
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it's looking like this could be another
shocker and i am not uh being facetious here
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i am not uh happy about this obviously but
uh trump looks like he's been underestimated
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again this is not a blowout um we are going
live early um this could be a shocker folks
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okay so uh with me early on the pod is regular
david friedberg uh david you're watching this
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early action and what's your early uh reaction
to what we're seeing um you know trump's moved
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we there's no nothing definitive yet but uh he's
moved uh in the results and he's moving markets
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we're seeing forex markets show a sharp indication
um that trump has a real shot at winning here
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treasury markets and as phil hellmuth will share
with us betting markets as well so it's more it is
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more of a nail biter um than a game seven of the
warriors cavs so here we go there's a hell of an
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ale biter guys and i'm just gonna say this uh the
uk markets had it first they he was five to two
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uh you could you could get trump at five to
two two and a half to one then it hit five to four and i thought that was quite crazy you're
watching cnn you're watching these networks and
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they're saying oh my god biden's winning this no
they're not even in the right neighborhood i'll never watch a network again on election night and
now the market from five minutes ago 368 million
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pounds wagered 368 million pounds trump is now
a three to ten favorite okay so for people who
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uh phil who are not gamblers if you bet that's
three thousand dollars you bet three dollars
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no no jason you have to understand if you bet 13
okay you don't get 13 back you only get uh 10 back
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okay now if you want to bet biden it's
seven to four so if i bet seventy dollars uh if i bet forty dollars
i can get seventy dollars
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back on biden now the shocker is right around 6
28 p.m uh the betting odds the markets were have
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been in biden's favor for three straight months
i've been live posting them on my twitter all day
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the worst i saw was uh was trump was a was biden
was minus a dollar 25 still a big favor to win
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and then boom and uh you know there are people in
my house that are actually crying uh you know i'm
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very more much more in the middle of this thing
but all of a sudden uh trump all of a sudden it
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was five to four then it was even and then all of
a sudden trump was nearly a a two to one favorite
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i'm getting live information from my friends
right now um i'm seeing that uh that it's uh
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it's a little bit lower on some of these sites um
i saw 267 that's for a 200 bet so he's a pretty
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big favorite um i saw the lowest i've seen is 217.
but jason if you're watching the odds and i put
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some stuff on my twitter it's amazing how it went
from you know minus 1.70 you know all the way down
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minus the 30 then it came all the way up to minus
1.70 this is crazy and and i've seen this movie
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before in 2016 actually okay so we all know
that you need 270 electoral votes to win
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and that there were a couple of states that were
critical uh for trump to win uh and it seems like
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those states that trump was critical to win um
he has now won so let's bring in david sacks uh
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david we just turned on the live stream and boy is
this a turn of events that i don't think any of us
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except for maybe you but you were very pessimistic
on the last maybe three or four all in podcasts
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you're watching these results come in the betting
markets have totally flipped to trump what are you seeing and what can we expect tonight what are
you looking for yeah i mean it's looking just like
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a 2016. i mean you're right that i was looking
at the polls in the last few pods that we've done
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and there was no way to say anything other than
you know trump was the uh was the underdog but
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at the same time i still thought that um trump
had a really good shot because i was watching
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both candidates on youtube all the time they both
were doing live events i wasn't watching it with
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the commentary i wasn't watching the clips i was
watching trump do these rallies i was watching
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biden do these parking lot events and i would see
trump do four or five events a day flying from
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tarmac to tarmac on air force one having
these huge crowds i saw him do this event in
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butler pennsylvania over the weekend it looked
to me like there was tens of thousands of people there um and i remember trump saying
a line like you know this doesn't seem like
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a second place crowd and you know it's one
of those trump lines but you know it did put
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in my mind this idea you know he's got a point
um whatever the polls say we're seeing tens of
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thousands of people show up at these events who
are fanatical i mean just fanatical for trump and
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so you always had to think that he had a chance
of pulling off an upset just like 2016. i will
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say what i said on our text earlier donald trump
ate the covid virus and killed it with his body
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and then he stood in front of the white
house and ripped his shirt off and let us all know that he is our leader he did not get
elected he claimed victory beginning in 2016
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and he has not and will not let go since then
and i think it is that cult of personality
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that um cultural personality draws so many people
in that are just um you know feeling like they
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need change and they need leadership and they
don't need something from the old school and
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he uh he stood up and he showed us that this whole
thing is it's a fake covet is a fake government is
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fake the people are fake the media is fake i'm
getting some late numbers i'm getting some late numbers here you guys um he's now at minus 1.59
to win pennsylvania and they took every other
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number off the board however if you're a biden
person jason the number is only 2.17 right now
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um so uh oh wow the polls are posters were
miles off on this and this is just amazing
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and it seems like from what we're hearing from the
reporting is that the pollsters did not understand
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uh the latin or i guess latin x is a way to
describe um a group of people who actually don't
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think exactly the same i've always had a a weird
um understanding of this term latinx which seems
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to come from the woke left but cubans puerto
ricans mexicans these are different countries
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they're not all the same venezuelans venezuelans
the this is not a monoculture uh just because
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they all speak the same language and we're seeing
something very different happen in florida right now where male uh cubans maybe are voting very
differently than what pollsters expected uh bestie
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chamoth is now fresh off a tight haircut and he's
here on the pod hear me uh we've got bestie phil
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as our first bestie guestie of the night bestiep
how are you best dp shamath you and i we shouldn't
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talk about this this is about politics but you and
i were just filming high stakes poker in las vegas
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on friday night it was great to see you bestie
is there any indication you can give us besides
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i mean of course there's a presidential election
that is going to determine the future of humanity but more importantly how did you each do
in the high stakes poker game the biggest
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the biggest the biggest part of the night was
around 400k maybe 500k played between me and dir
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yeah and he won he did not win
the hand oh my lord won that one and uh it was i think it was beautifully
beautifully played i think doug polk will
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definitely do a short video clip on it uh i did
a i did a very uh very sneaky three bet pre-flop
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turn check um river over bluff and got him to call
oh my lord a little set bomb i'm guessing but here
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we go uh jason i can't wait uh since i'm here to
promote promote promote everything i promote uh
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you can only watch these episodes of high stakes
poker a lot of players favorite show you can only
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watch them on the poker go app they're coming out
december 16th meet you moth phil ivey tom dwan
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ben lam a lot of your a lot of your heroes take
it away oh well can't wait can't wait to uh and i have a subscription to that all in um i'm
sorry the poker go app it's it's well worth it
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uh david sachs you have one of your i'm recording friends on the pod why don't you introduce uh
one of your consulting friends and and uh we'll
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have him tee up what we think the possible
scenarios are and where we're at right now
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at this very moment it is 657 in california yeah
so michael newman works for me as a researcher and
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um he's uh as a political scientist i guess you
could say and i've known him since college and
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he's very uh steeped in these uh a lot of these
races i don't know if he's yeah i have been
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obsessively following politics since uh the reagan
election of 1980 so i i i i wasn't alive then so
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no i'm afraid i'm uh i was only 10 but i was
already uh a political obsessive and as you can
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imagine a real hit with the ladies as well so tell
us what what are the key states we need to focus
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in on here and which one of them uh have enough
reporting for us to sort of put them in a column
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and then move on and understand the path to
victory for trump or biden yes well i mean uh
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depending upon which network or news organization
you're following they're either calling calling a lot of states or they're being very
conservative about their calls i mean
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nbc has still not called florida for trump but
there's really no path for biden to win that state
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uh so you can put that safely in the trump column
he has just taken the lead in north carolina after
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trailing all night we got about 88 of the vote
in now and i suspect he's home free as is the
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republican incumbent senator there can i can i can
i just can i just ask a question i mean isn't it typically the case that the counts from the
most populous urban areas come last and those
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tend to skew more democrat than republican that
sometimes happens uh it depends on the state
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some states have their rural areas come in last
one of the things that has changed the vote in north carolina is as the early vote came in as
the in-person early vote and mail-in ballots came
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in the last counties that reported that early
vote were the rural counties that's why early
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on it looked very good for biden and now it looks
like uh it's trending away from him wait a second
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north carolina according to the
new york times and according to cnn right now is favoring slightly biden 49.7
to 49.1 percent for trump with 84 percent
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i don't think that's i don't think that's
quite current i think they're up to about 88 but again yeah it's very close what's
interesting is uh biden had five potential
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states where he could have knocked trump out
florida georgia north carolina ohio and texas
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yeah florida's off the table the others
are still on the table but none of them are trending biden's direction at the
present time so he uh yeah so far trump is
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is staying in the hand as uh as you poker
players would would say he's uh he's uh he's getting the cards he needs to stay in
the to stay in the game uh but we still have the
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river to play and the river would be in this case
michigan wisconsin pennsylvania texas had an early
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lead for biden which was crazy to see right now
it's got donald trump at fifty point three percent
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buying at forty eight point three percent
guys again so that's starting to normalize i i i go back to this one very critical thing the
reason why michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania
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right now are trump is because you count the when
the county is counted you can pass the votes and
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you can report and if you have 25 000 people in
a county versus allegheny county which has like
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i don't know hundreds of thousands or a
million plus people it just takes longer yes no i listen i don't characterize michigan
wisconsin pennsylvania at all i think one of
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the reasons why michigan right now looks so red
is because they're counting today's vote first
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a lot of these other states that like florida
that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this they counted all that early
vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile
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as soon as the polls closed in the in the various
counties so that's why you saw early on a blue
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mirage there what you're seeing in a place like
michigan right now is probably a red mirage
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because it's it's today's vote which was going to
skew trump uh because of the because of the way
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he presented it to his people he uh florida
was the one state uh thank goodness for his
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uh sake that he encouraged people to vote early
and by mail in the other states he encourages
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people to vote today so here's a here's a stat in
pennsylvania i'm on the um secretary of state's
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reporting dashboard they've counted uh only
12 of the mail-in ballots um which is and the
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total mail-in ballots is 2.5 million yeah um
which is huge right and they've only it should
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be a majority of the vote i would imagine yeah
yeah and they've only and they've only counted
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24 actually sorry they've only yeah they've only
counted uh a handful of precincts at this point
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a quarter of the precincts right so
here's something i don't understand so uh nick carlson from uh was it like business
insider he just tweeted um minutes ago that
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north carolina biden is ahead with 99 of
the vote counted and biden has a less than
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0.2 percent lead but it's 9 000 votes but that i
mean that's that would be a huge problem for trump
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north carolina listen i think a loss in any
of those five states florida georgia north carolina ohio or texas is probably by the
way guys i just want to give a shout out to
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nothing who's listening here all the way from
sri lanka he's listening he just texted me okay
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by the way guys right now the odds are three to
one on the betting market so i mean obviously
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the networks i realized are completely useless i
stopped watching them a long time ago when they had biden way ahead in florida and the odds
were ten to one against right now if you want
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to bet trump is a three to one favorite on and
there's been billions of dollars bad in england
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australia all over the world he's a three to one
favorite it looks like it's real to me and just a
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and just a just to build your side of the case
uh nasdaq futures ripping s p futures falling
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and the 10 and 30 year falling remember ripping
these are all pro-trump trades and the euro the
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euro collapse the euro dollar falling uh falling
sharply once the markets turn towards trump well
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here's what they're reacting to is wisconsin
michigan and pennsylvania trump is all up big time now but again that lacks a very basic
understanding of how county reporting is happening
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in these highly populous you know or these
sort of sort of these these uh bimodally
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distributed states where they have a bunch of
suburban and rural vote that's fast account and
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the big places for example like you know you're
not going to see milwaukee and green bay report until probably close to midnight so the question
is why are the betting markets so pro-trump then
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what do they know that we don't know i will say
this let me say this jason i mean if you're like
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they're you're talking about billions of dollars
right and so all you had to do was design a system
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to figure out how to calculate votes earlier
and make a couple hundred million dollars okay
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these are the smartest people in the world
there's hundreds of millions of dollars billions of dollars at stake they obviously
do it ten times better than any other site
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than any other network so this information i mean
i give a friend of mine posted hey i'm laying two
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somebody knows something that we don't know while
trump just on bovada trump just moved to minus
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600. yeah he just took michigan unbelievable uh
it looks like he's ahead in michigan but again
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we have to see detroit and there's there's a bunch
of places in michigan let's let's let's let's the
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north so here's the north carolina secretary of
state dashboard and they're showing uh two-thirds
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of the counties and you can actually see by
county when you go onto their their dashboard the um you know the larger counties are partially
reported most of the smaller counties are fully
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reported um 63 total with um you know biden
ahead by literally a thousand votes right now
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across 2.522 million to 2.521 million wow but
what percent reported is that i mean uh it's 63
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of the counties have completely reported and
so the remaining counties if you look at the
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reporting status the remaining counties that are
partially reported there's a mix of rural and
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some of the urban counties you know durham's in
there partially reported uh so there is a mix it's
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not durham should be a biden county the research
triangle is uh upscale well-educated professionals
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that i think are the the backbone of the democrats
uh coalition in a state like north carolina
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now they have um absentee votes that are
counted and they have so far counted 3.3 million
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absentee one-stop votes and a million votes by
mail but that's how many came in it actually
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shows that only five oh i see yeah okay that
makes sense trump trump is now ahead in ohio
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two thirds two thirds of the votes post the link
into the zoom chat so nick can pull it up on the screen please um i i need to get an understanding
of something very basic here for the audience
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who's not degenerate gamblers are is there a
chance here phil and chamath gambling experts both
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that people had put early money on biden and are
now covering or hedging some of those bets is
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that a possibility here yes okay jason jason
the line is minus a dollar minus four ten on
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pinnacle right now let me just double check that
source so what what phil is saying jason is like yes there's going to be a bunch of essentially
covering now that covering will swing the line
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but i think what phil is also saying is when
a line moves this violently literally what we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both
the equity markets the currency markets
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and the betting markets flip 180 degrees
from where they have been not just all day
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but frankly where they have been probably
for the last few months that's what i was saying for three months straight uh right now
biden has been a favorite anywhere between
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three to one favorite at one point all the
way to maybe you know 50 favorite and all of a
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sudden today the lowest i saw was a dollar 35 and
i was kind of shocked and the next thing you know
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boom trump's a three to four to one favorite so
and and i'm looking at cnn and i'm looking at
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these networks and they're still they still abide
in the head and i'm like wow what is going on they're waiting that's that's the next thing we
need to take care of jamal there's a business
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for you is somehow we can deliver the right
data on elections quickly there you go sex
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yeah well i think the betting markets know
something we don't know because um trump is
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just you know if you look at like the live stream
on twitter or the new york times or something trump just slightly took the lead in ohio but
that's the state he's supposed to win in north
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carolina it looks like with over 99 reporting it
looks like he lost by 9 000 votes by the way a 9
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000 margin would probably trigger an automatic
recount of north carolina and there's like a
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hundred thousand absolutely ballots there
i don't know if those have been counted yet okay so let me let's put let's pause for one
second on this everybody north carolina is
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one of the four or five states trump has to
win in order to have a victory right michael
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i i absolutely agree with that uh he had to have
those five florida north carolina georgia ohio and
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texas okay so we have florida he's got now there's
four left there's four left georgia's a very slow
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counting state we really don't know all of atlanta
could be out for all we know so we leave georgia
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on the side so now we've got four states we can
work with north carolina is in biden's pocket by
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just a hair yeah that could change and it would
trigger a recount which would take days to weeks
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yes another three states let's go through them
systematically one by one michael okay uh ohio
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uh was the biggest surprise of the night when
biden built an early lead there although again
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a bit of a blue mirage based upon uh the
fact that the mail-in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the democrats
this year uh because they emphasized it
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and the republicans kind of fought against it
but michael michael with 49 of the vote in ohio
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okay he had a right now biden had a massive lead
and he had about a 400 000 vote lead would have to
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be correct and when you look at the betting odds
he was five to one underdog to win the state so something doesn't add up there and you
can you can say all right some of that is
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all the early voting went for biden we know that
to be a fact but there's something else there
00:23:42
okay i'm just looking at the uh results for ohio
we'll stay on ohio for one more moment and then we
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have another guest who just jumped on ohio is
currently showing donald trump with two point
00:23:56
rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million
slightly rounding up for joe biden 52 to 47 with
00:24:05
78 reporting does that mean we feel comfortable
with trump uh winning ohio unless all of cleveland
00:24:15
is outstanding i would say that's a trump state
yeah okay we now have john cohen on the line
00:24:20
john is a uh member of the survey monkey team
john welcome to the all in pod can you hear us
00:24:28
thank you so much i i'm sorry i didn't hear what
was going on i don't i don't know how much you've been disparaging pollsters so far um so we
were waiting for you we're waiting to get here
00:24:39
tell us as we start what your prediction was
earlier today well we're very clear to say that
00:24:47
we're doing measurements not predictions okay that
said the measurements that we are doing clearly pointed to biden advantages across the board but
we didn't have we so far we have no surprises
00:24:57
you know we had florida had been trump plus two
basically all week going to dead even um you know
00:25:04
coming into election day itself we don't know
where the final votes will be most analysts think
00:25:09
that it's in trump's camp it may end up there but
it's super close we had georgia close we had north
00:25:14
carolina close although and north korea had been
closing it had been a big biden lead it was down to under two points um with the senate you know
kind of even closer than that in some of our data
00:25:24
so you know so far there's no obvious surprise
here like damn the polls were really wrong certainly ours you know it's our it's early though
we're not declaring victory on those obviously
00:25:33
there's a lot to watch but nothing really to
surprise um you know us given the numbers so far
00:25:38
what about ohio and georgia so we had ohio pretty
consistently in trump's camp we had him up four
00:25:45
so it's trending that way now we had as close
as two points for trump i mean again i haven't mentioned the word margin of error that's in my
professional obligation and duty to mention it
00:25:55
it's around three points i believe two and a half
in ohio so close but we always had it in trump's
00:26:00
camp again biden that wasn't part of biden's
you know any of the past the victory that the campaign was counting on so you know no big deal
but we went from having a early night to now we're
00:26:12
for sure in for a really late night here
john um let me ask you the one of the most basic questions that i've had which
is what did we learn from 2016 and tell
00:26:21
me what exactly did people try to fix like
what was the thing that everybody got wrong
00:26:28
and what changed well the biggest thing that polls
fixed was how they adjust their polls by education
00:26:35
what we see in polling no matter how they're
conducted whether online as we do a surveymonkey or still on the telephone which most media posters
do is you get people with more formal education to
00:26:45
answer those surveys in far greater proportions
than you do people with lower education so the biggest thing you've got to do and we'll
look we always did it so we weren't in the
00:26:53
among the state pollsters who kind of failed i
think um you know kind of negligently to really
00:27:00
adjust by uh education at all we always had just
education but we what we failed to notice in 2016
00:27:06
was there was an increasing gap between those
with postgraduate degrees and those with bas
00:27:11
they've always been both to pro-democratic
group but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large
00:27:17
a fix to our polls which i just point out weren't
you know kind of were actually standouts in the in the upper midwest in terms of showing it
as a close race not clear clinton victories
00:27:26
we broke apart post grads and grads into
two distinct categories and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced
air in our polling for 2016. so that's fixed
00:27:36
we've used it to good effect again this time
around we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing we've had this between
a four and six point national lead again we'll get
00:27:46
quickly into why national results don't matter but
you all know that all too well everyone knows that all too well but we've had it kind of more narrow
and that plays out in the states that i mentioned
00:27:54
we had florida tied not a 4.5 and five point five
and it vanished elsewhere you know but we'll see
00:28:00
how it plays out in the midwest we also had
wisconsin what was our final margin there i think it was you know kind of nine and nine and a
half points not the 17 points that you saw from my
00:28:09
former colleagues at the washington post and abc
news so we've always had it a little bit tighter but again it plays how it's going to play
out in these states and so far no surprises
00:28:17
but the night is early and i'm i have
a healthy dose of pulsar's paranoia jamal i don't know if that answered your question
well enough but that was the main thing people did
00:28:25
it's really helpful but now take off your poster
measure you know chief research officer hat for a
00:28:31
second and put on just the american hat um what
does it mean when you know we had effectively
00:28:40
a repudiation of the establishment in 2016 and
despite everything that's happened over the last
00:28:46
four years we may be on the brink of another
repudiation again if you you know where you're
00:28:51
there to measure the pulse of what's going on
but less in sort of measurement speak and just
00:28:58
more in just plain american english speak john
what like what's going on if this happens again
00:29:06
see you're absolutely right there's something
major i would also like to caveat it we are looking once again at if trump wins is because of
the electoral college like he is going to lose the
00:29:16
popular vote there are still far more americans
and american voters who voted today and you
00:29:21
know kind of over the past several weeks who would
prefer joe biden to be president so again we can't
00:29:26
characterize with the broad brush the american
voting population when this is about effectively
00:29:32
i hate to call it a quirk but this is about our
system of vote tallying and the president you
00:29:38
know to pull back your point about kind of there
is something major here the fact that many people you know some of us might be friends with can't
understand why this isn't a hundred to zero race
00:29:47
fail to understand that the president's base
isn't small it is you know we've had it 44 to 46
00:29:54
approving of his job performance for many years
now like he has a completely durable solid floor
00:30:01
he also has a high ceiling right so he was never
going to win the popular vote this time around but he had a chance at that electoral you know
squeaking out another electoral college win
00:30:09
because he's been so stable you know this is the
president who you know kind of oh trump now had an nc thank you for uh the chat window so i think
you're right that we need to understand more about
00:30:19
what is the componentry of that 45 percent that
they would support trump when the other 55 percent
00:30:26
are so deadset against him and see it as something
really wrong with the country so we still have two
00:30:31
countries no what have you guys done to
though understand the people that are voting
00:30:39
for trump better because i think that they
are protesting and they're protesting a lot
00:30:46
and i think that you know if we didn't listen to
them 16 i think it's almost criminal to not listen
00:30:53
to them in 2020 so what are they what are they
saying what are they rejecting or what is it that
00:30:59
they want because at the end of the day you know
i think his incompetence can't really be debated
00:31:05
competence versus incompetence i think what we can
debate is he's a vessel and in that i think that it's incredibly important what's happening
irrespective of what happens today because
00:31:14
we were supposed to walk into a landslide we're
not as you said we're going to be in a nail biter
00:31:20
what is what are what are they using him as a
vessel to communicate to everybody else that's
00:31:25
a really good question some of that will depend
on you know a closer analysis of the surveys ours
00:31:30
where we talked to more than a million voters and
the exit polls are being deducted by two separate organizations today but what's the what are the
story lines that come out of the election you
00:31:38
know one of the things that's being reported early
is there's a much tighter hispanic vote in florida than many early polls you know predicted how
will that play out as we start to get votes you
00:31:46
know coming out in texas how is it being arizona
see arizona looking positively for um biden and
00:31:52
mark kelly in the senate you know in arizona you
know is it is it really hispanic votes that are driving some trump strength in these states or you
kind of visit the obsession that the news media
00:32:02
has had for the past four years around the kind
of trump middle-aged white male voter with less
00:32:09
than college education who has been displaced by
you know technological and industrial trends over
00:32:14
the past 20 years i think it's going to depend on
what that voting coalition looks like for trump and it's more diverse than i think we've been
focusing on before i think i think you're saying
00:32:23
an incredibly important thing i think that that
was a ruse and i've always thought that that was [ __ ] it's not some undereducated rube that's
running around voting for this guy um i think
00:32:33
that there are there are people up and down the
the age spectrum the socio-economic spectrum
00:32:39
and this is what i mean by he has become
a vessel for so many different messages
00:32:45
and i think we really have to start figuring
out what the hell these messages actually mean
00:32:51
because um if biden loses to your point maybe in
florida it's a repudiation of socialism okay but
00:32:59
in pennsylvania it's going to be something else in
michigan it's going to be something else in ohio it's going to be something else for him to keep
winning right um and and i just don't think that
00:33:08
there's a consistent idea and it's very dismissive
to say that i'm not saying you are but i'm saying
00:33:13
you know that idea that it was an out-of-work
ex-factory worker you know in rural ohio that was
00:33:20
protesting this is going to be much bigger than
that because even if biden wins the popular vote
00:33:26
until we figure out how to rebalance balance the
electoral college in a completely you know new way
00:33:33
or just get rid of it all together we're going to
have to live with understanding how some folks in
00:33:40
these extremely pivotal states um are pushing back
are they pushing back on political correctness you
00:33:45
know that's one thing that i've always thought
i think that there's a huge vote here against um
00:33:58
i think those are the under reported uh lockdowns
are the i think the biggest one of the biggest drivers no go ahead john go ahead john i was gonna
say one of the components here that we have to pay
00:34:07
a lot of attention is gender right kind of
you know the storyline for a long time and and you think about you know kind of republican
democratic politics is that you know you talk
00:34:15
about black voters and hispanic voters talking
about them as if they're monoliths what we have seen consistently over the course of the year
is that trump does much better among black men
00:34:26
and hispanic men than he does among black women
and latinas and that is just kind of like you know
00:34:32
whereas black women are 95 5 you know he nears 20
among black men it blends into the what we've the
00:34:38
90 10 we've already seen look but look these these
are measurements these are measurements i don't
00:34:44
think they're telling you the whys of anything and
i think for the wise you have to go a lot deeper
00:34:50
i mean first of all let's let's talk about the
lockdown issue can we just pull up that tweet nick
00:34:55
i mean so this is what i said back in may this
was like months ago before the election even hit
00:35:01
you know which is if the woke left insists on
permanent lockdowns trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of covid response
because i think you know we all we all agree on
00:35:10
that which is whether our lives and livelihoods
belong to politicians to meter out and drives
00:35:16
them drabs as they see fit and this was back when
elon was being shut out of his factory in fremont
00:35:23
and then there was this hairdresser named shelly
luther in texas who was basically um put on trial
00:35:31
for opening up her hair salon and the the judge
wanted her to to grovel and beg for forgiveness
00:35:38
and this was the beginning of the rebellion
over lockdowns and it was so obvious back then
00:35:44
that lockdowns weren't going to fly they weren't
sustainable they were too politically unpopular
00:35:49
um they weren't going to work and and by the way
if it was something a cause that the left agreed
00:35:55
with like you know a blm rally or something
like that then you were allowed to do it you know it was that whole standard around um
you know doing things that were essential
00:36:04
and so you know this insistence on lockdowns
even after the public had really repudiated
00:36:11
them i think was a major issue for for
trump and it was crazy to me that biden was still insisting on lockdowns you know
still i mean that is his official position
00:36:23
um i don't think it's the only reason why he's
in trouble right now but i think it's a big one i think if he if trump reaches the blue wall
again of michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania
00:36:32
lockdowns is the biggest reason why because those
are three states that had extensive and still have
00:36:38
extensive lockdown it hurts it hurts people
i'll here i'll read you a tweet and i won't name who it's from it's from a farmer in um in the
corn belt who's well followed on twitter believe
00:36:50
it or not there's a whole ag twitter community
and he says well it's the day does this country
00:36:56
turn down the road to be like venezuela or
do we continue on the road of capitalism and um he's had this acute um feeling that he's
kind of vocalized on twitter for for months now
00:37:08
on how painful the locked lockdowns have been on
him and his family and his business and on the community and uh it just feels like overreach
to a lot of people that the recognition that
00:37:19
um you know the left might be using to justify the
decision is just not there that the the impact the
00:37:24
near-term impact that folks are feeling is what's
there and that's driving a lot of behavior right now boys all markets are now up everything is
green dow futures s p 500 futures nasdaq futures
00:37:37
oil is up gold is down and there were some guys
that made some heavy bets against the dollar
00:37:42
going into this thinking we were going to have
massive inflation with biden policy coming up and some big fund managers that went really big on
on shorting the dollar this last week um and
00:37:52
the dollar is up right now yeah the dollar by
the way we should we should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important
senate races because it's not just trump versus
00:38:02
biden that there's also a bunch of hitler taking
luber one in colorado again luber one in colorado
00:38:09
but there have been some you know some of the
republicans who look to be in big trouble like lindsey graham have uh have pulled it out
and have won and um so it's looking like
00:38:19
the senate is still very much in play i
would say as big a favorite as biden was
00:38:24
the senate shifting from republican to democrat i
say that was considered as equally big a favorite
00:38:32
and that that may not happen now so we should
make sure to talk about that at some point north carolina right now is 49.8 percent
to 49 for biden 2.6 million versus 2.58
00:38:45
ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2 51 52 to 47 trump is beating
biden i um i have a question for john cohen john
00:38:56
um let's go back to um sort of your understanding
as you've been measuring different trends have you
00:39:03
measured um people's sympathy towards lockdowns on
a state by state level and then second question is
00:39:11
have you measured people's sympathy to cancel
culture at a state by state level and by the
00:39:17
way you're on mute so if you want to just take
yourself off yeah thank you we have not done anything on cancel culture we've done a lot on
the coronavirus we've been tracking that actually
00:39:26
in three countries since uh mid-february and we
have a state-by-state look and what's interesting is we ask the question like this is primarily an
economic issue or a primary health issue and those
00:39:36
two have been running neck and neck but healthy
kind of more people on average say it's a health
00:39:41
issue than an economic one trump with trump's
supporters overwhelmingly say the crisis is one that's financial not health related so there's
always been that but it's been like a 45 55 gap
00:39:52
there so we've been measuring it state by state
but there's a solid core of people and it gets to david's point about why what are they focused on
what is the what is affecting them and their you
00:40:01
know pocketbooks it is the you know lockdowns
and the kind of clamping down and what is this
00:40:07
economic crisis not a health care one even though
that's what we all say that they should follow
00:40:12
there was there was a there was a fantastic line
that the democrats coined which essentially said
00:40:18
something to the tune sexy poo you'll tell me
if i get this wrong but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the for the
rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag
00:40:29
phrase for um for this election cycle and sort
of to frame a lot of policies but when you have
00:40:36
in these states again if we say this cuts along
socioeconomic lines but then maybe bleeds into um
00:40:43
college and even you know uh
graduate level educated folks is there a vote here for um rugged
individualism and just leave me the [ __ ] alone
00:40:55
there certainly could be i want to go back to what
david said about measuring versus the why because i mentioned gender to point out a big difference
that we're seeing across racial groups across the
00:41:05
levels of education but i'm you know we're polling
every day so you guys have the right why question
00:41:10
you know send it to me you know sent to xander
we'll we'll ask it you know we pulled 9 000 people
00:41:15
today on you know kind of their willingness
to accept the results and so we'll be putting that out tomorrow we have a we'll have an
exit poll running uh every day from here on
00:41:24
to certainly until we get a result so
if you have the question you want to ask send along we'll we'll get to the data at
the state level all right john we very branch
00:41:32
appreciate you coming on the pod and uh we will
be checking surveymonkey's amazing data as we go
00:41:39
um i'm going to switch now and just john john
thank you and xander thanks for do for hooking
00:41:44
that up thanks john thanks guys and we'll have
some more bestie guesties coming up some fan favorites from the twitter and the poker group
i just want to point out right now that it's
00:41:54
very interesting to see that fox has biden at
129 electoral votes and trump at 109 and um
00:42:05
some of the other networks have it much lower
how do the networks make these decisions
00:42:11
of when to call a state because it's too early
according to many to call florida but we're
00:42:19
sitting here with a pretty clear understanding of
where florida is at does anybody have any thoughts
00:42:24
on that of well i think they're erring on the side
of extreme caution because of the strange year
00:42:31
that it is and the fact that there is all this we
had a hundred over 100 million votes banked early
00:42:37
through the mail or through early in-person voting
and nobody sure how many more mail ballots there
00:42:44
according to one side i looked at there were still
27 million ballots outstanding now some of those are redundant ballots like david's father-in-law
who got three ballots in the mail in pennsylvania
00:42:55
and a lot of those are probably going in the trash
but there could be another five to ten million of those to come in that are postmarked by today
many states will accept them after the election
00:43:04
as long as they're postmarked by election day so
they're probably being very very careful that they
00:43:10
don't make a premature call of course they all
have ptsd about what happened in 2000 when they
00:43:15
first prematurely called florida for al gore then
prematurely called it for george w bush and we
00:43:21
spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what
the hell happened in florida so uh i think they're
00:43:26
going to err on the side of extreme caution across
the board although uh i feel like the margin in
00:43:32
florida at this point is feels insurmountable now
right that's florida florida's over florida's over
00:43:39
it's about now it's about it's about ohio by the
way the betting markets have just moved again big
00:43:45
time so donald trump was at minus 600 now he's
minus 250 on bovado phil what do you think about
00:43:51
that yeah he's snapping back i will say let me
let me address what jake jason was talking about a few seconds ago and that's it you know basically
florida even the new york times had them at at 6
00:44:03
00 p.m at 95 percent to go to trump at 95 that was
a new york times site my wife and i looked it up
00:44:10
and the batting odds had him at over 10 to 1.
this was at 5 30 this was two hours ago so i
00:44:15
mean i just think there's a huge inefficiency
with with the way i think it was over as soon as the miami-dade dump showed that biden
only won the early vote by nine points i mean
00:44:24
hillary won by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state
so how much of this do we think has to do with tax
00:44:34
policy people in florida are retiring we have
the aoc gang we have come on elizabeth florida
00:44:44
it's his beloved state he has a place okay
so so hometown favorite mar-a-lago i get that
00:44:50
but you have so many retirees and we we have
this bifurcation of how taxes should work in
00:44:56
the united states so i just want to open
that up for the entire group to discuss of art are we seeing old people are we
seeing people who are concerned about taxes
00:45:06
because we have had a flight in the last couple
of years of people from high tax states to low
00:45:12
tax states is this about taxes do you think let's
start with you friedberg no one wants to pay taxes
00:45:19
the [ __ ] like no one's gonna raise
their hand and say i want to pay taxes but i mean there's a moment where taxes don't
matter if well but romney romney was in favor
00:45:32
or taxes and he you know he didn't win any
any of these elections like the way that
00:45:40
trump looks like he's going to i think that
the the traditional republican messages message
00:45:45
of taxes is sort of necessary but not sufficient
trump obviously brought a whole set of issues that
00:45:54
previous republicans hadn't had abroad and i
think that you i think you have to look at 2016
00:46:01
separately from 2020 and so starting with 2016 i
think the big issue that trump that no republican
00:46:09
really had ever figured out except maybe pat
buchanan 20 years ago was the trade issue with
00:46:14
china you know we forget that in the 1970s when
the great chinese economic reformer deng xiaoping
00:46:22
decided to open up the chinese economy the
average chinese was making two dollars a day and today their economy is is roughly the size
of the us now you know what was the reason for
00:46:32
that well we had a bipartisan consensus in this
country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both
00:46:39
clinton's and both bushes that we should you know
open them we should welcome them with open arms and we opened up our market to chinese products we
brought them into the world trade organization but
00:46:50
but that was the start that was the start of that
was the the killer app or the killer issue that
00:46:55
trump figured out and that's what shattered
the blue firewall in those rust belt states
00:47:00
i mean if you're going to try and figure out
going back to 2016 why trump won you have to explain why he won michigan so you're saying our
jobs they took our jobs but what i'm saying the
00:47:11
manufacturing jobs went out and the fentanyl
came in i mean that's his argument and um that
00:47:16
was a killer argument i mean and the proof is in
the pudding it's the proof is that he won these states that hillary thought were so in the bag
that she didn't even bother to campaign there
00:47:26
so that was the big surprise at 2020 and the issue
of taxes well no no no let me explain what's going
00:47:33
on in 2020 in my opinion okay this is not a
partisan explanation but i think that after
00:47:39
the loss in 2016 look in business we know that
when you lose when you make a mistake you make
00:47:46
a bad investment or the company does something
wrong you analyze what you did wrong right and then you figure out what changes to make the
democrat party did not do that what did they
00:47:56
do they blamed facebook they blamed it on russian
interference they never really analyzed why they
00:48:02
lost these rust belt states and made changes
instead what they began was this hysterical
00:48:07
denunciation of trump um you had this sort of
um you know you sort of had this this sort of
00:48:14
um you know media culture uh tech uh industrial
complex who decided that trump was a an
00:48:24
illegitimate president and you know and so what
they did is they went all in on impeachment they went all in on this russia stuff and in the
process they created this enormous backlash
00:48:34
and i think that 2020 if 2016 was an economic
repudiation of the elites 2020 is a cultural
00:48:42
repudiation of the elites that is the big
issue in 2020 yeah i uh i tend to i tend to
00:48:48
i'm sympathetic to david's view i don't
completely agree with all of it but um just to build on something you said i don't
think jason this has anything to do with taxes
00:48:57
um i think that in florida the if we if we end
up really getting to the bottom of what happened
00:49:05
i think there's a lot of people um older people
that probably lived through some version of
00:49:10
mccarthyism and immigrants who actually fled
really shitty totalitarian countries who were like
00:49:16
you want to do what here and i think that
there was a lot of people that basically
00:49:23
are giving a very clear signal which is i'm
a democrat but if you push me to the brink
00:49:28
and talk about a socialized nanny state i'm going
to vote republican so to david's point i totally agree to david's point if there was an economic
repudiation of sort of traditional globalism
00:49:41
in 2016 and donald trump ends up carrying
the day and today then it's a repudiation of
00:49:48
sort of these cultural manifestos and norms
that we're swinging to now the the answer
00:49:54
to that may be to say change the electoral
college because it doesn't represent the
00:50:00
majority or the plurality of americans i hear that
but in the same way that you know we've said for
00:50:06
years now that the republicans will have to change
to win the electoral college or to change to win what's evolving in terms of people's perceptions
on social policy uh it may actually be the
00:50:18
democrats that also have to change if this
doesn't swing hard back in biden's favor so and
00:50:24
chamath when you when you make that statement
i think what's particularly prescient is the
00:50:29
democrats believed that because of the demographic
shift from white americans to people of color
00:50:37
latinos black americans that they were just
going to win all of them this is this is the best
00:50:44
this is the problem with the stupidity of the
establishment like if you take a thousand brown
00:50:50
people and put us in a room what i will tell you
is just in case here's a [ __ ] memo for all you
00:50:55
white people out there we're not all the god
damn same okay and if you put a thousand black
00:51:01
people here's the memo now for the democratic and
the republicans they're not all the same you can
00:51:08
take a thousand hispanics and it turns out they're
not all the same so maybe you know you can take a
00:51:14
thousand straight people a thousand gay people
they're we're not all the [ __ ] same so maybe
00:51:20
what this means is that we've moved past color
and now ideology and social policy and economic
00:51:26
and monetary and fiscal all of these things that
the totality of how a rational well-developed
00:51:35
makes person decision maybe that's at hand and
before if we historically only thought you know older white men and white women could do it maybe
now it actually applies independent of color and
00:51:44
gender yeah i absolutely agree with that and i
would add to that that um uh if if trump's victory
00:51:50
in 2016 laid waste to the republican establishment
if he wins again tonight it will lay waste to the
00:51:55
democratic establishment and the theory of the
case that they've had for 20 years the sort of uh
00:52:01
chair uh emerging democratic majority case that
they just had to sit back and let demography
00:52:08
become destiny and they could just graft an
identity politics onto the same neo-liberal
00:52:15
economic agenda they've been pushing since the
late 1980s and it would all just somehow magically produce majority results in the country they are
going to have to go back to the drawing board and
00:52:25
and i think get more populist themselves and come
up with some kind of version of politics that is
00:52:32
isn't it it's more in the bernie mold it
needs to be left but not woke isn't it going to be socialism it's it probably is going to be
socialism but it doesn't mean that it's not like
00:52:41
if you lay waste to the center you know you're
left like i mean that's basically what happened
00:52:47
to the republicans and now if you're saying
the same is going to happen with the democrats this time around you're going to have
aoc running for president in four years
00:52:55
and i mean she won't be the right brand though
because she's woke you guys you don't need uh
00:53:01
aoc we need a charismatic democratic candidate
somehow sharon brown keeps getting elected in
00:53:07
in increasingly red ohio as a old-school gravely
voiced irish labor democrat and somehow bernie
00:53:15
ignited a movement as a very old-school uh
gravelly voiced jewish democrat neither of whom
00:53:22
gave a damn about identity politics really they
were principally concerned with inequality and
00:53:28
uh income redistribution i uh i wanna i don't
wanna see that happen but i think that's the only path forward for the damage hold on let's let
me go to phil because phil had something he wants
00:53:37
to add there and then we'll go to youtube yeah i
wanna say that we needed for the democrats and uh
00:53:42
they just needed to i think they needed a very
they needed a charismatic powerful leader with a lot of charisma i mean i know that you know the
i was hanging out with one of the trump guys that
00:53:51
was with him on the plane in the 2016 election he
said that you know he outworked hillary there's
00:53:57
no doubt that he outworked biden i mean this guy's
going to seven rallies a day um showing up with a
00:54:03
ton of energy and he has you know like iran he has
a lot of charisma also i can't help but think that
00:54:09
you're talking about repeating repeating
repudiating sorry i'm getting that word wrong um
00:54:15
to me this is all about i think a lot of people
are really scared of socialism okay and i think
00:54:22
it's just like even the young people
that you know even the young people you know who say that they love it they're looking
at their path to the future and and with and you
00:54:32
know they can they can still do great things
there's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and and make a billion dollars by the time you're
30 or 40 and i think with socialism that goes away
00:54:43
i think that um look i uh i i think if trump
does win um i don't think what it means is that
00:54:53
you need a a person that's at the extreme left
to win i actually counterintuitively would say
00:55:00
the ob the opposite which is that you need just a
more credible centered person now that may only be
00:55:08
possible if the democratic party cleaves in two
and the reality is the republicans may actually
00:55:13
quasi cleveland ii independent of whether
trump wins or not anyways and we'll see as david said how some of these senate seats break
because if that goes in a different direction
00:55:23
you know for example if trump wins but we have you
know a democratic tie in the senate maybe that's
00:55:29
not possible um but um i think that would say
a lot around um the need for pragmatic but more
00:55:38
youthful leadership okay i want to go around
the horn right now what is your gut telling me
00:55:44
who is going to win given what we know right
now everybody give it a thought uh when you're
00:55:50
ready look into the camera and i will call
on you michael you're looking into the camera who's gonna win if you had to pick one right
now michael give us your best guess with this
00:55:59
podcast because that would tell me a lot but uh
uh i increasingly think trump is going to win
00:56:07
okay phil you're looking in the camera who do you
think's gonna win we've seen this movie before
00:56:12
um except that hillary was actually five to one
favorite last time and i watched these numbers go
00:56:18
straight up and now i'm watching the same thing
it seems like although i will say this uh you
00:56:23
know saks has been posting some stuff within
our channel about the numbers popping up and down i'm getting texts and they are popping
up and now but still the lowest i've seen is
00:56:31
2.5 to 1 i think trump wins trump wins who do
you got sax well i'm going to assume the betting
00:56:38
markets know something um i'm still a little bit
unclear on north carolina um because i saw some
00:56:46
tweets that fein had wanted by a few thousand
votes but the um the the north carolina website is
00:56:53
showing um that actually trump's ahead about like
70 000 votes so i'm not sure who to believe um
00:57:02
and uh well yeah look i'm gonna i'm gonna go i'm
gonna i'm gonna go with what the bad markets are
00:57:08
saying which is trump and um you know i thought
that he i thought he had a much better shot
00:57:14
than the polls were reflecting and that's what
it's looking like what do you got for you berg
00:57:21
donald trump took on coronavirus for us he killed
it he is our true leader and he will prevail
00:57:30
here in the united states of america tonight at
least the betting markets are telling me and the treasury markets and the s p futures are telling
me that donald trump's gonna win but i do think
00:57:40
that the fact that this guy has never conceded
defeat to anything in his life gives him a huge
00:57:45
leg up and he uh you know he's he is like steve
jobs he warps reality and he tells everyone i
00:57:52
am going to win i have killed coronavirus and it
happened um wait like a jedi knight it's like a
00:57:59
jedi yeah all right four or four so far picking
at uh exactly 7 45 p.m california time chamath
00:58:09
who do you have at this point if you had to shove
your chips all in uh i still think the path is um
00:58:17
um uh i um i think it's biden and i have the
advantage of some information which is that
00:58:27
they just announced breaking news they aren't
counting mail-in votes in philadelphia tonight
00:58:34
and i am going with so so we don't know
uh pennsylvania tonight so if it's down
00:58:42
to a few thousand votes philly i think is
gonna break i think you can count that as three or four hundred thousand votes yeah and
if oh it should be it should be five hundred
00:58:51
thousand it should be five hundred thousand well
then five hundred thousand would carry the state for joe biden yeah they've been they've got so
a hundred thousand so they've got so i'm gonna
00:59:00
i'm gonna stick with biden here because
i think that uh that philadelphia vote count is uh crucial it turns out that
it may it may come down to philly by the way
00:59:10
what an incredibly poignant place for the election
to be won and lost the city of underdogs the city
00:59:18
of rocky uh i i think we can safely say that biden
is going to win the popular vote and it might be by four points five points which means that there
is a discrepancy uh between the popular vote and
00:59:29
electoral college we're going to hear a lot about
that because uh i i am going to go with bison
00:59:35
because my heart is going to be so broken this
country picks this sociopath to run it for
00:59:44
another four years after his absolute failure
to content to do even the most modest things
00:59:53
to battle coronavirus and the strife he has
caused between americans and his personal style
01:00:01
is so heartbreaking to me that i don't
know that i can believe in america if they put this absolutely sociopathic
person who has the least amount of character
01:00:14
of any other human being anybody on this call has
ever met in their lives it would be a complete
01:00:21
absolute utter disgrace if he makes it into
office for a second term what do you really exist
01:00:30
hold on it's an existential threat to the entire
planet and humanity and democracy across the world
01:00:38
if this country puts that maniac into office
again for four goddamn [ __ ] more years i'll
01:00:44
make up for that's my personal feeling i can't i
don't care what the statistics say right now in my
01:00:51
heart i cannot give that man even a benefit of the
doubt if he wins garbage if he wins is fouchy the
01:00:59
first guy fired oh i think you can count on it and
challenge you and christopher ray the fbi director
01:01:06
and right and increasingly maybe bill bart too
and somehow bill barr is not enough for the sync
01:01:12
shred of credibility or honor is gone i wanna i
wanna just say to to jkl i um i really empathize
01:01:22
with how you're feeling because i have never as a
person that has been a citizen of three countries
01:01:29
when i moved to america in 2000 i have never
really i mean you know edge cases yeah i've
01:01:34
felt some racism here obviously you know i've but
i've never felt so unwanted and i remember 2016
01:01:44
for the first time in my life feeling a level
of insecurity i had never felt before because i
01:01:49
was so afraid i didn't know what it meant for
donald trump to be elected four years later
01:01:55
um you know in in so many ways uh it's like two
realms of a coin you know um i leave my house and
01:02:06
uh you can just see that there's just so much pain
and divisiveness i come back into my little world
01:02:12
and things seem to be really great and that's a
really really terrible feeling to have jason so i
01:02:20
i know exactly what you're talking about i wanted
to tell you guys um you know i there was like a i
01:02:26
i've always been sort of like okay bryden's
gonna win biden's gonna win biden's gonna win
01:02:31
and then there's a weird thing that i did and you
guys can see it in the fec filings but i gave a million bucks this year in the elections but
i gave 750 to the senate and i gave 250 to buy
01:02:42
and i didn't understand why i did it um and i and
i and i explained it to nat as she's like why did
01:02:49
you do it that way and the best way that i could
explain it is i i think that there are so much
01:02:56
i don't know about what is driving the vote for
president that i wanted to make sure that you know
01:03:02
there are checks and balances and the best check
and balance was to you know make sure that there was actually some senate um check and balance on
biden i mean on uh on trump so you know i'm i'm
01:03:17
going to jason i'm going to accept the result um
i'm going to try to figure out what the [ __ ] i don't know because this is yet another layer of
i clearly don't know what the hell is going on um
01:03:29
think i can tell you pretty assuredly guys uh
any result that's called tonight i think is going to be uh incomplete because they're not
going to call pennsylvania because they're not
01:03:38
going to call philly and so if there are in fact
three no i think the the exact math is about 350
01:03:47
000 votes that show up in philadelphia a
gap of 350 000 votes that show up in philly
01:03:54
um biden will do what he needs to do by the way
how many people live in philly does anybody know
01:03:59
how many registered voters friedberg is it is that
billy there's a lot of it's supposed to be like
01:04:06
half a million votes coming in there and i think
they've counted a hundred thousand um and so i
01:04:11
think it'd be more than half a million usually the
dims uh margin is about half a million the margin
01:04:18
yeah philly is uh i want to say our fifth or
sixth largest market they've actually got it
01:04:23
lifted it's a pretty significant population that
link i sent you there nick and then if you click
01:04:28
on uh click to view precinct reporting you can
see the data right now sorry it's tough to read
01:04:37
yeah i mean we care about allegheny
and then what else do we care about you care about philly and you care about those
immediate suburbs outside of philly like box
01:04:46
county and chester county and um there's a
there's four or five ringed suburbs of philly that
01:04:52
used to be the uh centerpiece of country club
republicanism they're the the counties that
01:04:58
elected arlen specter to the senate but over
time as the republicans moved right they moved
01:05:04
more toward the democrats michael do you know
why they're going to stop reporting um mail-in ballots tonight why would they do that they just
probably just uh to go home and sleep for a while
01:05:14
before they pick it up tomorrow pennsylvania
unfortunately and michigan as well are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until
all the polls are closed uh that's why those uh
01:05:23
states in the sun belt we were all looking for uh
to be a early bellwether because look at that guys
01:05:31
4.81 this is unbelievable unbelievable what
what are we seeing here what's unbelievable
01:05:39
so what that means jason is that uh in
philadelphia there are 176 precincts okay
01:05:47
of those only 82 have reported the their ballot
tallies so you have 95 of the precincts in philly
01:05:56
not reporting if you take michael's framework and
say there's a swing of 500 000 votes if it goes
01:06:03
historically democrat as it has in the past you
attack on five hundred thousand net new votes
01:06:11
to um to abide and you know and uh he uh he
ekes out a win yeah he it goes blue probably in
01:06:20
that scenario yeah so then it becomes about
but remember though if trump is holding um
01:06:29
if he manages to hold michigan he could
lose pennsylvania it wouldn't matter he had a little bit of a margin he had
what he had 306 electoral votes last time
01:06:41
so if he holds everything he had minus
pennsylvania actually he could lose michigan too as long as he carried wisconsin
he has it has to have one of those two
01:06:49
but i think wisconsin's difficult so for
all of our uh listeners and watchers in
01:06:56
new jersey they legalize recreational
pots so go out and get yourself some cheese yeah i'm gonna i'm i just took four
gummies after my little tirade there because
01:07:08
the two xanax weren't working so that's going
to get really strange for me in about an hour
01:07:17
just to go back the reason i mean are we
going to crack a bottle of wine or what somebody got i already got one yeah this is mostly
coffee but trust me there's some irish whiskey
01:07:27
michael i guess i'm speaking to you but it looks
like i'm seeing reports of the sound of arizona pennsylvania michigan and wisconsin unfortunately
all four of those states are going to probably
01:07:36
take at least a day arizona three days i
think to count maybe not this year because
01:07:44
so much of the vote was early maybe it'll
move faster but they are notoriously slow counters so settle in it could be
the weekend before we have a result
01:07:53
wow okay so let me just drop this if we don't
know tonight what is going to happen over the next
01:08:05
week and we're going to be we're going to be
we're going to need a lot of gummies jason
01:08:11
no i mean joking aside i think everybody's
going to be tense jay i think i don't i don't
01:08:16
think you're going to see a lot of action one
way or the other i think that people i think people in america are incredibly good people
i think that folks are just going to sit tight
01:08:25
and hope that the folks whose job
it is to do their job do their job um i i hope you're right chamath but when i
see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars
01:08:36
when i see people bringing guns on both sides
horrible people on both sides bringing guns
01:08:43
militia style to specifically taunt each other
when you see people getting shot in the street
01:08:49
chasing each other down over politics this is
something that has not happened in our lifetime i mean phil's very old so he kind of remembers
the 60s but for the rest of us under 68 we we
01:09:02
have not witnessed americans shooting each other
in the street over politics we have not witnessed
01:09:09
people taking people out of their lives because of
politics and this is got trump's fingerprints on
01:09:17
it from you mean since this summer i mean what
about all the looting and rioting and protests
01:09:23
my point is when trump got in office his character
and his ability to trigger people his ability to
01:09:33
abuse people his rhetoric put everybody on tilt
i'm not saying people looting stores are correct
01:09:40
but what i'm saying is george bush and ronald
reagan your heroes bill clinton obama other
01:09:47
people's heroes on this call there was a there
was a a kindness in our differences and when
01:09:54
people conceded they conceded with grace and this
individual this horrible human being bush wasn't
01:10:10
and we had a mutual respect for each other
that this deranged individual has removed
01:10:17
from america so jason i'm not going to defend
that's going to happen in the next week because
01:10:22
i'm not i'm not sure each other leading up to this
i think the next week should be incredibly violent
01:10:28
you are fake news thank you for that you are
fake news now look uh jason i'm not going to like
01:10:34
disagree with you about any of that um i the the
only thing i would add though is i do think that
01:10:40
the media has been a co-equal partner in sowing
this chaos and divisiveness because you know
01:10:47
we used to have a media that thought its job was
objectivity and neutrality yes and they ripped the
01:10:55
umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy
trump and um and why do you think they did money
01:11:02
it's very profitable trump trump has made big
money aside picking a side is is definitely more profitable you get more subscribers
it might also be that they were absolutely
01:11:12
suffering from trump derangement syndrome
from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate children
from their parents at the border
01:11:21
yes but they're supposed to they have a job to do
they're supposed to be neutral there's supposed to be a rational contribution to trump yeah but
exactly but but the reason why trump is doing well
01:11:31
or better is because the opposition
to him is increasingly irrational and um and people have voted for trump
to to basically give the middle finger
01:11:41
to you know to the to the media who you know again
who are taking sides to these big tech sensors
01:11:48
you know who don't want us to read
things that are critical of trump um you know and so on down the line i mean i i
tweeted earlier i mean rich lowry had a great post
01:11:58
explaining why if trump was gonna win why you
know why that would happen and it's because
01:12:04
he's the only middle finger available to these
people and uh you know i don't disagree with you
01:12:10
he's not being no one's voting for trump because
of his integrity perceived integrity oh no or um
01:12:16
integrity it's the first time i've heard integrity
in the same sentence as trump i thought you're i'm
01:12:21
agreeing with that point um i'm saying they're
not voting for him because of that they're not voting for him because of even a second term
and they're voting for him in order to to stop
01:12:32
cultural forces they don't like i have
two things to say decidedly by the way two things to say um according to um the national
political writer for the philly inquirer jonathan
01:12:50
tamari his tweet of 7 35 p.m said actually it was
even greater than we thought there are still 2.2
01:12:57
million mail-in ballots to be counted in pa about
87 percent of the total so if that's true then we
01:13:04
have that and philly number one the second thing i
wanted to say is that if you actually look at the
01:13:10
psalm counts right now in pennsylvania it's
371 591 votes that separate trump and bible
01:13:21
wow so it's uh you know not that much guys if 2.2
million votes are outstanding yeah but if it's if
01:13:29
it's two if it's let's see sixty percent or two
third kind of to one third slash forty percent
01:13:37
and it's not let's say it comes in under that
right they probably counted a couple hundred thousand already i mean it is still pretty
close yeah um really close let me um let me ask
01:13:48
jamaat do you think that part of the reason
we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar
01:13:56
jump and um uh and all the kind of uh obviously
correlated assets moving the way they are is not
01:14:04
necessarily because of a trump win but because
the risk of a hung election seems to be coming
01:14:10
out of the system right now that it seems like
we're gonna have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would florida is going to
be much more clear that's always a worry state
01:14:19
um georgia is going to be clear obviously we've
still got pennsylvania to kind of figure out here
01:14:24
but it seems like this is going to break one way
or another whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court fighting overhanging
chads for months and there was concern in the
01:14:33
markets for months about that um do we think
yeah no i think that people were basically
01:14:41
look there's a reason to be
long biden in the markets which is essentially that there are certain
sectors of the economy that would have done
01:14:49
very well those sectors of the economy were
probably slightly different than trump's
01:14:57
under a trump regime the reality is that corporate
taxes broadly speaking are not going to go up and so you know you can forecast higher earnings
power for every stock and so everything goes up
01:15:09
i think what's happening right now is more of
that relief trade of maybe trump was winning so
01:15:14
you could be kind of long everything blindly
um but you know the real canary in the coal
01:15:20
mine was like if you looked at tech futures tech
futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was going to win because they will probably
disproportionately benefit of just having to pay
01:15:28
no taxes because they pay no taxes today um i
um so so that's like kind of like what i what i
01:15:34
think is happening on on that side i mean trump
is very pro-business that's why the markets are ripping right i think i don't know i mean i feel
like there was a real concern like there was a a
01:15:44
non-zero case here call it a 30 case that we were
gonna get stuck for a few months with uncertainty
01:15:50
and litigation about where this election was
gonna go i think i think it's fair to say that we
01:15:55
we still we we could still have that david because
we don't if if this goes to tomorrow i think it's
01:16:00
fair to say that that the game theory would tell
you that tomorrow whoever loses pennsylvania
01:16:06
should ask for an immediate recount right right
and i don't know what the pro they have to i don't know what the process for that is if whoever loses
um arizona should ask for an immediate recount
01:16:17
you know whatever is possible under the law
i think both biden and trump will exercise
01:16:22
because let's face it this is the highest stakes
possible and so you would hate to not if it's a
01:16:28
margin of a few thousands of votes or tens of
thousands of votes or even a hundred thousand votes and you're allowed to do a recount so um if
that's the case tomorrow morning if we go to bed
01:16:38
in another hour and a half or if we finish
this thing in another hour and there is no winner uh clear winner i think markets will be
back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow so
01:16:50
david your thesis is that your thesis is a
clear winner the market's ripped either way
01:16:55
i think yeah clear winner it's just like
there was a lot of grinding expected here that was going to cause a lot of you know
trepidation and bouncing for a while that
01:17:03
folks were concerned about and if you feel like
you're going to have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated if you feel
clear about where it's going to go because it's
01:17:12
55 45 you know i'm sure they're going to ask for
a recount good news for everybody it makes sense look i i think the market does not want those
trump tax cuts repealed stocks just ripped after
01:17:22
um trump passed those corporate tax cuts so
um if either trump wins or the republicans
01:17:28
hold on to the senate then that would be a
reason for the market to rip doesn't mean it doesn't mean trump has to win but it but
but if we have divided government gridlock
01:17:38
so between the two of you the best best possible
scenario for the market is if trump clearly wins
01:17:43
okay i think i think we have another investigation
is it the case if we look at the senate races
01:17:49
um i don't know if anyone i don't know if there's
an easy way for us to pull this up but we have to go pull that up david and i just want to introduce
our next bestie guest brad gerstner is here
01:18:02
right now multi-billion dollar i believe
you would call it a hedge fund or a fund
01:18:08
yeah and he invests large swaths of money in the
american economy has a very is he the best travel
01:18:14
investor of all time jason calganis he's up there
but um he certainly i would i would guess brad
01:18:21
with covid and airlines being grounded
this has not been the easiest year for you so apologies no brad brad just made 10 billion
dollars on snowflake he's fine uh snowflake man
01:18:35
brad uh what's going on tell us what's going
on what do you know well um kyle um it's a um
01:18:46
it's a fascinating night i mean all markets are
ripping we've had a massive reversal in the nasdaq
01:18:52
a massive reversal in the bond market um and it
it appears that you know everybody's now who is
01:19:01
worried about a trump victory is now celebrating
the trump victory um you know one of the things
01:19:07
people didn't understand about a clear biden
victory is the underlying concern in the bond
01:19:14
market right if there's one thing to explain the
expansion of multiples in the market this year
01:19:21
is the fact that rates have collapsed
right so the 30 and 10 year went from you know a couple hundred basis points 20 months
ago to basically 50 basis points in august of
01:19:35
this year we've seen them back up about 40 percent
over the course of the last couple months we see
01:19:41
them backing up again tonight the fact is the the
market is seriously concerned about higher rates
01:19:48
which are the result of both a turbocharged
economy too much stimulus on top of you know
01:19:55
uh vaccines and prophylactics for covid and
so you know if you ask me you know we get all
01:20:02
excited about the election we get all excited
about stimulus and tax policy but the biggest elephant in the room is the fed in rates that's
the 80 to 90 factor in the market this year in q4
01:20:13
of 18 and so what i'm what we're looking at you
know we see the the nasdaq now up 350 bips the
01:20:20
future's up 350 bibs so that says trump's winning
we're not going to break up the tech companies we
01:20:25
see the s p starting to rise again and we see
the bond market falling saying that we're going
01:20:30
to have lower stimulus right in the market um
so you know i i i've heard i've heard y'all
01:20:39
talk about you know a clear victory certainly is
better than not a clear victory uh but you know
01:20:46
not withstanding our own [ __ ] anxiety that
we have to live with for the next four years
01:20:53
in the short run the market is clearly voting on
um you know is is voting that trump is a palatable
01:21:01
alternative um and i would tell you to keep your
eyes on rates as much as you are on the market
01:21:08
brad more than uh a great manager of money you're
actually a great human being but you're also very
01:21:14
wired into the dems um what are the
dems getting wrong if they lose today well you know first this is an upset already
tonight let's call it this is a massive upset
01:21:29
relative to expectations win or lose the reversal
in in the betting markets the reversal in the
01:21:36
stock market you know it's just earlier tonight
it you know a well-known organizer's house uh on
01:21:44
the democratic side there is despondency this is a
massive upset uh by trump and once again a massive
01:21:52
misread by the progressives and organizers
in the democratic party you know i had my 84
01:21:58
year old mother out here from michigan over the
weekend and i'll tell you that ordinary people
01:22:06
are made to be to feel bad about themselves
by people living in these parts the sanctimony
01:22:15
that exists in urban areas you know and coastal
elites is just it's you know this is what we're
01:22:26
seeing people vote against right the idea that
you're going to close down the state of michigan
01:22:31
not allow people to take their boats out on lakes
this is just you know not something that people
01:22:36
are willing to tolerate and i think more than
anything else tonight you see a protest vote
01:22:42
against sanctimony um and this is just ordinary
people saying that you know let us live our lives
01:22:51
don't act so much smarter than us um you know
and you know i asked my 84 year old mother
01:22:59
you know who she voted for she
goes don't ask me who i voted for that's none of your business right like that's
her way of telling me right that uh you know that
01:23:09
she's frustrated by how people in san francisco
make her feel living in michigan i think that's
01:23:17
i think that's brad that's so smart but david
sacks before you talk he's talking about you
01:23:24
well no look i mean i'm on twitter and i echo
technology extremely i mean it's usually vcs
01:23:32
basically they can't comprehend how somebody could
have a political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil i
mean i see this on twitter over and over and over
01:23:42
again i'm like really yeah but but but but this
is like most of silicon valley and i'm just like
01:23:49
look i mean political opinions are
like [ __ ] i mean everyone's got one and to think that yours is a lot prettier than
everybody else's and it's a bit ridiculous
01:23:58
um oh welcome everybody to the podcast if you're
just tuning in well the family hour just ended
01:24:04
there we go wait brad brad can i ask a
question sure what um like what what do we do
01:24:14
yeah you know for me listen a trump victory
the reality is we've learned to tolerate
01:24:21
the anxiety over the last four years and
i think the market's fully prepared to
01:24:26
uh to manage its way through another four years of
trump so i think that's you know the reason we're
01:24:31
seeing the the futures react the way they are is
it's a whole lot of nothing i mean the fact of the
01:24:36
matter is asking how do we get off of our horses
if we're on horses the social elites well i mean
01:24:42
um this is going to take a complete rewiring
right like an abandonment of um you know the i
01:24:52
mean listen you you and i all know the exodus
of people out of the bay area right now right
01:24:58
the fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics
in the democratic party in the state of california
01:25:04
vacated long ago and you know that is not a recipe
for victory it's not a recipe for victory at a
01:25:11
national level it's not a recipe for victory or
tolerable victory at a state level i think we're going to have the single largest migration of
economic uh the single largest economic migration
01:25:23
in the history of this country the convergence of
covid which allows people to work from anywhere
01:25:29
and the risk of changing tax policies in states
like california is going to cause mass economic
01:25:35
migration and i think that people are voting
with their feet and they're voting with their wallets and they're voting you know tonight
in in loud numbers no matter where this where
01:25:44
this comes down this is an upset and a defeat
for what democrats expected to occur tonight
01:25:51
do you buy the framing brad that this is about
political correctness versus cancel culture
01:25:58
yeah i think that's i think that's a big part of
it i mean like you know um i think it comes out
01:26:04
it's it it's amplified this year because
of covid but it comes down to something very simple which i talked about um you know
sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants
01:26:17
right she's like oh you fancy people who live
in san francisco you have all the answers right this is just the way that people in indiana
and michigan and ohio they're made to feel every
01:26:27
day you know they'll sit around watching fox news
these are not people who are racist right chamath
01:26:34
i heard you say earlier tonight the idea that
trump could pull what he's polling and yet if
01:26:41
you talk to all of our friends they would have
you believe that it was just a small band of
01:26:47
you know racist pickup drivers carrying trump
flags i mean they are their head is in the sand
01:26:53
yeah this is this is ceos yeah you know these are
business owners these are small business owners
01:26:59
these are farmers these are old people these are
young people i mean the the millennials you can't
01:27:05
find a millennial in the state of indiana or
michigan who supports biden right you can't find
01:27:10
them and i mean just to add to that point about
what they think about people in san francisco why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and
the people who work at these big tech companies
01:27:21
like twitter and facebook are asserting a right
to censor articles that they don't like and trying
01:27:27
to assert a power over what the american people
get to see and read i mean what a campaign issue
01:27:32
that was for trump in the last two weeks i mean
whatever twitter and facebook thought they were doing to protect or help the biden campaign i mean
what a blunder i mean to give trump the issue of
01:27:44
censorship in the last two weeks and then the
extraordinary thing you know we had that that congressional hearing in the senate commerce
committee that i wrote a blog about and the
01:27:52
amazing thing is right on the heels of that after
that hearing when we heard jack dorsey get that
01:27:57
you know he just got grilled he got ripped apart
by the senators twitter doubled down on censorship after that there's an article by jonathan turley
talking about they censored a whole new batch
01:28:06
of accounts and so if anything you know it'll
be really interesting to see i think you know
01:28:12
if you think back four years ago facebook was
really for whatever reason became the scapegoat
01:28:17
for the election i think this time around it's
going to be twitter because they have been so arrogant and they're assertion of their
right to censor viewpoints that and if the
01:28:27
republicans hold on to the senate um and or
the presidency i think you're going to see
01:28:33
jack dorsey become the poster child for this
new censorship that they're going to target
01:28:38
and the paradox friedberg is that had they
just let that new york post story be tweeted
01:28:47
because it's the new york post this is i mean
you may not like the new york post it may have assorted past or reputation but if that had been
a new york times story washington post story
01:28:57
or an msnbc story or a cnn story it would not have
been banned because it's a rupert murdoch new york
01:29:04
post story and because it was salacious somebody
mid-level inside of twitter decided to ban it
01:29:12
how much you of that do you think plays into
what we're seeing here tonight freedberg which is
01:29:20
this is not uh a small event this
is a large group of people saying i don't want anything to do with the democratic
party anymore i just think back to 2016
01:29:34
and um you know everyone has their own priorities
their own individual things that matter to them
01:29:43
and i remember in 2016 or leading up to it i spent
a lot of time in what we call kind of the rust
01:29:48
belt and the farm belt um if you'll remember this
was around the time of kind of the transgender
01:29:56
bathroom um you know movement yeah yeah yeah
and this was felt very much like a coastal elite
01:30:04
um topic of interest if you're in the rust belt
in the farm belt you're like what the [ __ ] how
01:30:09
is this possibly something people are spending
time on and arguing about and thinking about and the disconnect between the priorities of the
individuals that live in the vast part of the
01:30:20
united states versus what they read about and hear
about others treat as their priority um i think
01:30:27
is what partially helped support trump getting
elected in the first place because the things
01:30:32
that matter to them that they felt were highly
consequential um were completely unrelated and not
01:30:37
being paid attention to while other folks you know
that had the money and the power in the big cities
01:30:43
were focused on social matters and social
issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority
and i think that fast forward to 2020 and it
01:30:53
hasn't moved in the right direction it's moved in
the wrong direction where the the the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority
it's actually become an active interest moving
01:31:05
against you and so if you live in the corn belt
or the rust belt or vast parts of rural america
01:31:12
to your point you're now not only
feeling that there's this disconnect but you're also feeling like this point of view
is becoming um overwhelming and stopping you from
01:31:21
having a point of view and i think whether
your point of view is rooted in fact or not you can base that however you want um it just
feels like it's becoming a silencing effect
01:31:31
and not just kind of a a you know ignoring the
effect and i think let me yeah let me just jump in
01:31:37
here uh i wanted to come back to this but i want
to just jump to something that bogut just tweeted
01:31:42
andrew bogut thank you for this um detroit
philadelphia and milwaukee are all planning to
01:31:47
post vote counts tomorrow as they work through
absentee backlogs so if we look at the counts
01:31:53
that really could mean that phil you know
uh pennsylvania wisconsin and michigan are
01:32:00
either too close to call or not even yet ready
to be called until tomorrow morning um i think
01:32:07
let's take a pause here and let's go through what
the swing states are and where they stand at this
01:32:13
very moment arizona is an important toss-up
state correct let's pull up arizona nick
01:32:19
uh let's all just take a moment to look at
arizona we're gonna go through about six or seven of these states and just get our
bearing right now because when we did the
01:32:27
quick survey about 45 minutes ago four of
us believed trump was gonna win two of us
01:32:34
believe one of us emotionally and
of us somewhat emotionally believed hold on before you start this
i just want to read a tweet um two two tweets number one from nick bilton
when do we get to vote on when we fire nate silver
01:32:54
and the second one wait the second one which is
even funnier he's named nate silver because all
01:33:01
his picks come in second place oh ouch wow i mean
i i was tweeting you guys before the election i
01:33:11
mean the nate silver thing was a joke first of
all he was saying that biden was 90 favorite and at the same time he said that if trump won
pennsylvania then he would become the favorite
01:33:21
but you knew that trump was a few points
of the margin of error in pennsylvania so
01:33:26
how can you be a 90 favorite but some but but
but pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck i mean
01:33:33
even his own internal projections
weren't consistent with each other i mean here's mate silver one of the best sports
predictors in history he's been an absolute genius
01:33:42
he stepped into politics and now you guys
are lashing yeah but this this is the worst case of analytics since uh tampa bay pulled their
picture in the sixth inning of uh the world series
01:33:53
i mean i if we look at what's happening it's
very clear that there are people who are either
01:34:00
lying to the pollsters because
they're embarrassed about their choice or they may actively be trolling the
pulsars so when a pollster calls them
01:34:09
they lie to them to have this exact moment happen
just like the tick tockers all registered for a
01:34:15
trump event so now we have a level of
trolling going on at a national level i think there's a simpler explanation and that's
that we're not all trolls i think the simpler
01:34:28
explanation is that pollsters are empiricists
and they're experts and uh like a lot of experts
01:34:35
you you can kind of you can kind of interpret
the trump phenomenon of of over performing now
01:34:42
two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against
the experts uh and they don't see their biases
01:34:49
uh the way they should they're they're blind to
certain things there's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because michael they
may have been experts yesterday but they're not
01:34:59
experts well this is i mean this is what trump
does this is why people support him in spite of the fact that i don't think anyone disagrees
with jason's opinion of his of his character
01:35:08
is that they love sticking it to the to the
eggheads you know right yeah brad what happens
01:35:15
to um media like what happens to how we conduct
ourselves like do you do you read the new york
01:35:22
times tomorrow and think wow i'm going to trust
the times i'm not saying you did before but i'm just using it as a generality to sort of ask the
question like what happens to media no i think i i
01:35:31
think our belief in you know all of these polls
and all of these mainstream press i mean this
01:35:37
validates the arguments effectively that trump
has been making right that you've been told lies
01:35:43
that these polls were lies that everybody
was trying to manipulate you i mean it's this is a validation of those who are flipping
the middle finger at washington and at the coast
01:35:55
and they're saying we're not going to be
told how to believe how to think how to vote um how to wear masks how to wear masks
and you know it's a dangerous side to this
01:36:06
100 it's the end of expertise i mean who who can
we ever trust i mean and this is putin ironically
01:36:12
it's the experts who got mass wrong remember that
at the time that i was saying that we should wear
01:36:17
masks the who was saying we shouldn't so they were
lying they were deliberately lying to keep uh ppe
01:36:25
from being overrun by so the experts have done
a horrible job on covet too jason i mean look i
01:36:30
think that's yes but now the cynicism of trump and
his approach to absolutely undermine fauci and say
01:36:38
to and admonish people wearing masks while on
stage is a level of danger and and is in is
01:36:45
a little different that's insane so know that
mass work you actually were a proponent of it
01:36:52
yes of course math should never become a poor
question trump last week said don't wear a mask
01:36:58
no he never he was he literally made fun of a
person wearing a mask let's just run through
01:37:19
issue okay um right it should have been a
bipartisan response and it's unfortunate it became a political issue um but uh and i'm not not
forgiving that and it took trump way too long to
01:37:31
get on board with mass i think right around the
time my blog was published a few days afterwards first he said it was optional you could do it if
you want it took him about another three months to
01:37:40
actually say that master a good idea i agree that
had he just gone all in on a mass policy i think
01:37:46
this would not even be a close election i
mean that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year um
100 agree okay so we agree on that but but but
01:37:56
look but you're missing the other half of it
which is what is our cova policy going to be today and the reality is that joe biden and all
these blue state governors are still on the record
01:38:07
as being in favor of lockdowns and in fact they
are doing lockdowns the only reason why michigan
01:38:13
and wisconsin but i say especially michigan would
ever be in play tonight was because of lockdowns
01:38:18
absolutely i agree yes this is a resounding rebuke
of lockdowns let's uh just zip through these real
01:38:26
quick arizona pull it up nick arizona here we are
buy it in 54 if we round up 45 for donald trump 75
01:38:35
looks like arizona is going to uh biden
next up let's take a quick look at iowa um
01:38:45
iowa 64 percent in and we're in a essentially a
dead heat with yeah i was going to trump jason
01:38:53
i was going to trump you can see how that numbers
come down yeah as the uh election day vote starts
01:38:59
to trickle in that's going to trump so they
were one of the states that did the um drop
01:39:05
off ballots mailing ballots first yes i think i
think that's fair to say yeah okay ohio critically
01:39:10
important let's take a look at ohio while we're
here uh ohio wow that's really flipped hard
01:39:17
with a commanding lead yeah you can kiss that one
goodbye yeah ohio north carolina we are now within
01:39:26
one can we just all agree if we were i mean right
if we're momentum investors i mean this thing is
01:39:34
this is a disaster for biden right it's a disaster
this is a disaster for biden and on top of this
01:39:41
all our talk is about the presidency
they're not going to get the senate either no no uh tillis is running ahead of uh trump in
north carolina so i think he's home free and well
01:39:53
the vote in maine is not fully in yet there's
only about 41 percent collins has a 40 000 vote
01:39:58
lead which susan collins keeps her seat that is
the biggest that that is like the mega upset the
01:40:05
democrats were already they were targeting her two
years ago after she voted for kavanaugh yeah okay
01:40:12
the best that as we think through this by the way
just keep this in mind cnn right now shows i mean
01:40:19
cnn's head must be up their ass or we don't know
what we're doing but they show 192 to 114 biden
01:40:25
um oh yeah because they call them california
that's right they called california when the polls closed so that's 55 that went
yeah okay north carolina here we go uh
01:40:36
we we or we did north carolina i believe yeah
we're at uh 95 reporting and trump has a a lead
01:40:43
that looks like he's yeah and unless there's a
lot of charlotte out i think that north carolina is over and that by the way that uh percentage
is outside the recount uh window i think you
01:40:53
have to be within one percent okay let's take a
look at georgia for a quick second we said that michael do you know if we've counted north
carolina's mainland i think that i think they were
01:41:03
all dumped at the outset right north carolina one
of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that like florida they can count in advance
and so they dumped they dumped a bunch right at
01:41:14
the outset here by the way i just got it by the
way i just checked the betting lines trump is over a three to one favorite to win the election
right now the later at the later it goes the more
01:41:23
significant that is wait why did it come down
to 200 on bovado that's the lowest it's been
01:41:31
i just got three to one on one of the sides oh
this has two to one yeah that's the lowest um
01:41:38
if you assume that biden takes arizona trump
takes north carolina south carolina georgia
01:41:46
let's go let's give him pennsylvania wins arizona
uh if biden wins arizona he could lose michigan
01:41:55
so georgia is currently fifty-four percent
declared that biden won arizona oh well
01:42:01
okay that's a quick call uh items has to take
pennsylvania okay so now this is what i'm saying
01:42:08
this is why this is in place so if you assume
biden takes arizona so that's now on the table now if you say that trump takes north carolina south
carolina georgia pennsylvania florida texas ohio
01:42:18
et cetera he still needs to pull out a victory in
michigan wisconsin or minnesota otherwise get this
01:42:27
or nevada well actually nevada wouldn't be enough
nevada wouldn't be enough yeah otherwise let's go to minnesota guys hold on guys hold on just let
me finish please it's going to be if trump so if
01:42:37
that happens trump needs to win one of michigan
wisconsin or minnesota otherwise it's 270 268
01:42:43
biden wow okay so here's minnesota let's just
pause for a second biden with uh biden's got a
01:42:52
56 to 42 with 54 percent in so there's a
lot more to come in but i think michael
01:42:59
you would agree that's a bridge too far i i never
thought minnesota was in play uh the republicans
01:43:04
the republicans put a brave face on there uh and
they are making some gains in the rural areas but minnesota was never in place okay time to go to
wisconsin time to go to wisconsin let's take a
01:43:14
let's pause here we got to do this step by step
everybody wisconsin 51 to 47 donald trump with
01:43:20
54 percent that too i think feels like a bridge
too far or do we not know if they did we don't
01:43:26
oh you know i think wisconsin is another one who's
probably counted their election day vote first so no so still very much alive in wisconsin yeah
exactly milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow
01:43:38
morning yeah michigan we need to take a quick
look at michigan and then we're almost done
01:43:44
okay here's michigan donald trump at uh trending
to 55 to 44 for biden only 44 percent are in and
01:43:53
let's be clear is this um detroit tomorrow
okay is that michigan detroit yeah that that
01:44:01
that wayne county vote is very low yeah look at
that 28 percent a lot of more lot more votes there
01:44:08
okay so we don't know about michigan michigan is
very much up in the air that's that's a pretty good margin for trump there but i would say
it's very much up in the air but by the way
01:44:16
if you put arizona in biden's column he can lose
michigan let's take a look at pennsylvania one
01:44:22
more time actually and trumath is right he could
lose he could lose either michigan or pennsylvania and still he could have trump needs to win
michigan wisconsin one of michigan wisconsin
01:44:31
or minnesota so basically forget minnesota if
destroyed so okay so then if detroit doesn't
01:44:37
show up and milwaukee and green bay don't show up
trump wins pennsylvania does that assume that he
01:44:44
wins pennsylvania yes if i give you if we give him
pennsylvania so again this is why i think guys um
01:44:54
it feels like biden as i said i'm a little shaky
on my prediction right now actually i think the
01:45:00
the betting markets are showing uh it's tightened
almost to even and let me ask brad a question brad
01:45:06
if the betting markets are saying it's almost even
and the analysis we just did isn't missing any information yeah why are the um futures markets
still trading up one and a half points and why are
01:45:16
things still you know i i think that listen the
the the stock market's ripped the last two days
01:45:23
assuming that biden's gonna win and i think
what the markets are starting to uh price
01:45:31
in is that this is not going to be a blue wave
there's no mandate here for massive tax reform
01:45:38
there's going to be a divided senate it's going
to be hard to pass legislation that's going to be overly onerous that the stimulus package is
going to be smaller not larger which is why the
01:45:49
the rates are backing up so i think from a i
think from a public markets perspective the
01:45:55
idea that we're going to have some checks and
balances in place it can live with either the
01:46:01
the devil we know uh or it can live with biden
but it doesn't want biden with elizabeth warren
01:46:08
as treasury secretary so democracy survives
i i think scenario three is starting to
01:46:14
look very possible a biden and a republican
senate and uh i can sleep soundly with that
01:46:19
i don't i don't know we're gonna have to i mean
you guys i don't know what odds you're looking at but uh but i mean 1.9 is i mean that's
like that's a huge significant right there
01:46:29
it's still good i give you that but uh i don't
know those those numbers it's moving fast
01:46:38
i want to take it it's down to 180 yeah i want to
go back to this topic um that that brought up um
01:46:45
okay guys look we'll have a winner and it's going
to be closage um but think of how many people
01:46:54
um like isn't there any empathy for all these
people that are that just feel so completely shut
01:46:59
out of the system like what do we do tomorrow like
irrespective actually of whether trump wins or
01:47:05
biden wins i think brad's right we're to basically
get you know nothing much is going to happen at that level but what do we do at the like on main
street like what are we doing to close the gap
01:47:15
between folks so that you know this entire cohort
like literally i don't care whether biden wins by
01:47:21
the popular vote by five million or seven million
you're talking about tens of millions of people
01:47:28
bill gurley is now on the line uh another one of
our best i guess these bill thanks for joining us you heard the question being teed up here this
is neck and neck this is not something anybody
01:47:39
at least pollsters came anywhere close to
predicting and chamat's question i think is
01:47:44
a really valid one who is got a greater chance
of bringing the country back together and maybe
01:47:51
leading from the middle and maybe healing this
wound because this has been the worst four years
01:47:57
i believe in any of our lifetimes in terms of the
anxiety and the anger between people who used to
01:48:04
be able to what a loaded question totally
well i want to know bill's opinion because
01:48:10
by the way bill gurley is the best coach jason
jason is the best venture capitalist in the world
01:48:18
phil stop hijacking our [ __
] broadcast go ahead girlie so thanks for having me on i you know i think you
guys have done a really good job of breaking down
01:48:27
why people have mis-estimated this thing there
was a you know there's such a royal urban split
01:48:34
there was a there was a really good new york
times daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed uh rural democrats in in
pennsylvania that had switched to trump and
01:48:45
and all the voices they echoed were very similar
to what brad walked through with his mother and so i do think there's a a true lack of empathy for
the the center states and the rural areas from the
01:48:57
coastal elites and i'd say part of breaking any of
it down would be somehow trying to separate that
01:49:03
i think a bigger issue that has really been on my
mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten
01:49:10
and i i've i've come to believe that the way you
can probably just ruin your mind the most is to
01:49:18
just join a tribe and quit thinking about things
and the number of people i know on both sides
01:49:24
that have run off to their tribe is shocking to
me and and it's just not a way to go about being
01:49:31
smart because you know and and if you anyone
that makes fun of a you know a religion that's
01:49:39
extreme or something it's all the same [ __ ] like
you're just believing dogma for the sake of it so
01:49:44
i one of the things that i worry about about a
trump victory is is just very tactically in my
01:49:50
life and maybe it's part of living in california
but a whole bunch of people and things that i want
01:49:56
to get solved become more manic if he wins like
my kids school and the companies that i work with
01:50:03
and and covert quite frankly i i
think that we can't get past covet with trump because the tdsers are so convinced
that it has to be problematic and it's just
01:50:14
you know so i don't i actually i don't know the
exact path to solve it but i i do worry about
01:50:20
just being in a world where everyone hates each
other and it just doesn't seem solvable that way
01:50:27
well th this is why i think you know uh this
this scenario which uh we've called the soft
01:50:33
landing where let's say you had a biden victory
by two electoral votes the republicans hold on to the senate um i think the radical left gets a
big um i'd say rebuke um or a shock and we have
01:50:47
basically divided government in washington but
it takes the whole temperature down because you know trump gets replaced by biden but you've
kind of got you know basically joe and his old
01:50:56
pal metro and a power sharing arrangement in
washington it could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years you know
temperature would go down there'd be kind of this
01:51:06
you know healing process if you will um but
you know there wouldn't be a whole lot of new
01:51:11
sort of legislation that we have to worry about
i think we would get what we want which is the ability to ignore washington for four years yeah
but we wouldn't get a solution to really what
01:51:21
ails us which is the fact that there's all these
people that just feel completely shut out and i
01:51:27
that really bothers me at some very basic level
which is like i just think like you know i fought
01:51:34
my family my parents just escaped some third world
[ __ ] [ __ ] to go to canada and you know canada
01:51:42
gave us a lot but it still wasn't enough for me
i crawled and scratched to get into the united states things work out but i don't feel like i
have a right to all of a sudden um i don't know
01:51:55
just like look down on other people or make
people feel like [ __ ] or not allowed so you
01:52:01
actually think chamoth that biden is going to
do that or do you think bine's going to be no but jason i think middle ground no who who no with
the republicans in the senate what i'm saying is
01:52:12
independent of what happens we're going to have
basically we're going to have a photo finish
01:52:18
and what i think what brad said is right the the
fact that we're in a photo finish means that there
01:52:25
are a lot of people in pain and i think we have a
responsibility to get our heads out of our asses
01:52:33
and stop this sanctimonious holier-than-thou
[ __ ] i agree with brad when he says that it really hits the nerve with me because i feel like
there are a lot of people we work with them all
01:52:42
it's rife within the tech culture and all these
[ __ ] bags think they know what they're talking about all the time and we're doing a disservice
to so many americans and we need to wake up and
01:52:52
that's what bothers me the idea that there are so
many people who feel like they're just getting so
01:53:01
really bothers me that bothers me so i i i can
ignore trump i'll ignore his [ __ ] because
01:53:07
honestly he's done nothing he will do nothing
he is a complete [ __ ] void um but whether it's
01:53:15
trump or biden in a 270 268 election the fact that
so many people still use this guy as a vessel um
01:53:23
i don't know that makes that makes me more upset
i think some people i think a lot everyone thinks
01:53:29
has some degree of empathy to the problem i think
there are different points of view on the solution which is where this stuff gets realized the one
point of view is we should have less government
01:53:38
involved in our lives and our businesses and
the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government
and that's where things diverge very quickly
01:53:46
it doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics
is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting
01:53:53
and i don't think anyone in america does from
the rich to the poor to the left to the right yeah i think the solutions are miscast because
for example like what are we supposed to do
01:54:02
like with our higher educational
institutions the people that are churning out all these folks that are meant to go
and collaborate and find middle ground
01:54:10
i mean i clearly like all of this says our
educational facilities are completely failing from grade school all the way through to high school
um community college college grad school it's
01:54:22
all just a contrived piece of [ __ ] right we
are completely putting out one in two people
01:54:28
for failure okay so that much is clear so i
don't see politicians fixing that on either
01:54:36
side of the aisle what i mean honestly what are
we supposed to do well i mean i might just might
01:54:41
i just suggest that um two things um number one
i think in these results that you see there's a
01:54:50
you know there is extraordinary frustration
right with this with the state of affairs
01:54:57
the fact that trump in the middle of covid after
four years of torturous anxiety-inducing tweets
01:55:06
could even be in a neck-to-neck
race to win this election tells you right how devastatingly bad people feel about
how how they're being treated i think that
01:55:18
you know i said recently i mean we have
to redraft the social contract this idea
01:55:23
we've been living under a social
contract drafted post-world war ii um that you know it's pre-technology revolution
we have a concentration of wealth today in the
01:55:33
world and in this country like we've never seen
and we have uh republicans that are set in their
01:55:40
ways who say you know no no no universal health
care you know no reform of the education system
01:55:47
you have democrats who are demanding that you have
universal basic income i think you have to have
01:55:53
um pragmatic smart younger politics i mean
the fact that we have two old white men
01:56:02
i mean neither of these folks is on top of their
game i mean neither of these like this is i mean
01:56:10
you could you compare biden to pete budage i mean
buddha judge is buddha jizz walks into the lion's
01:56:19
den of fox tv and tames the lion every night every
night right let's get pete bootages solving some
01:56:28
of these problems let's get some younger ideas
on the republican side solving these problems but we're going to have to re-architect architect
that social contract no doubt about it um
01:56:39
you know and i i think the second thing is that
you know to me this is going to be a wake-up call
01:56:46
to the nominating processes in both parties
but but let's be clear mike pence right has
01:56:53
his road map um you know for you know how
to win the election indiana governor right
01:57:01
he's going to tap into the same fears that trump
tapped into i mean these fears aren't going away
01:57:07
right the exacerbation of the wealth
disparity is going to increase not decrease we see it every day out here and so
i think you're going to have to have you know
01:57:17
the democratic party who nominates people
and puts people you know forward who can
01:57:22
you know who can tap into this brad who do
you like if it wasn't biden who would you like
01:57:29
buddha judge he's a south this was
the you know an openly gay mayor of my hometown in indiana you think he can
sell right who fought who fought in afghanistan
01:57:44
and who goes on fox news every damn night right
and has a conversation that leaves republicans
01:57:51
saying oh that guy's pretty smart right yeah i
i agree that he's a tremendous political talent
01:57:58
do you think that he's pragmatic enough brad or
he he would he would end up veering more towards
01:58:04
uh you know sort of like politically correct
leftist socialist agenda and then have the
01:58:10
same result i think that there is a there's been
a doctrine in the in the democratic party that
01:58:17
to win the primary you gotta veer to the left
right you got to contend with bernie you got to
01:58:23
contend with elizabeth warren but ultimately
that's a losing strategy in in the election
01:58:29
and so i think you're going to have the emergence
of a middle of the country governor middle of
01:58:34
the country mayor somebody like pete um who's
gonna run you know on a smart younger pragmatic
01:58:41
democratic ticket um i think that's a winning
formula i mean i think that's the clinton formula
01:58:47
um you know obama was a bit of an anomaly
but the clinton formula was a conservative
01:58:53
pragmatic form of of uh democratic party
leadership i mean i suspect that in the next
01:58:59
three or four days i'm going to get a call
from the democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me and my message
to them is you guys can go [ __ ] yourselves
01:59:07
until you figure this out because to your
point brad it is absolutely shameful that
01:59:13
we're in no no i'm serious that we are in i know
you are that's what i love well but chamoth i mean
01:59:19
what you should tell them to do is go form a dlc
remember the demo democrat leadership committee that bill clinton formed so remember what what
bill clinton did you know when he won in 92 we
01:59:29
had three straight republican presidential terms
ronald reagan incredibly successful president then
01:59:34
his successor basically reagan wanted bush
won a third term for reagan but he was a weak
01:59:40
candidate and clinton came in there what did he do
he triangulated he tacked toward the center um and
01:59:47
you know he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan
legislation david david david let me make this even more blunt okay um my million bucks will grow
to 10 million dollars a per election to 50 million
01:59:59
dollars per election as i get older okay so if
these [ __ ] want a single goddamn dollar for me
02:00:05
what i want first is a root cause analysis
to understand what is actually going on so to your point before you fix it you
need to be honest and identify the problem
02:00:14
well i mean i i think that i think it's it's
because that the issue that trump ran against
02:00:20
was that joe biden was a trojan horse for radical
for a radical left that really owns the democratic
02:00:29
party right now that's what he ran against
bill gurley what do you think the issues are
02:00:34
that if we were going to try to have a great
reconciliation between these two parties between middle america and the coastal elites
where you have spent you know large swaths of your
02:00:44
life i think perhaps you're the only person here
who has lived in both places middle of america
02:00:50
he's from indiana okay but i trust your judgment
on these issues what what does the what does the
02:00:58
what are the coasts need to understand
about the people who believe who when who live between the coasts and what they're trying
to express to us and how can we as coastal uh
02:01:09
occupants and citizens do to kind of bridge
this gap other than just moving to austin and
02:01:14
getting the hell out of california which is
devolving which is what i feel like doing at this point well dude i have two comments on
this one you know having having listened to
02:01:24
you know as much as i can on on all the of the
the voter conversations including this call
02:01:31
um i'm not 100 sure that that these people
feel unrepresented i think a lot of them want
02:01:37
to be left alone and so part part of what's being
engineered or what they fear is being engineered
02:01:45
is someone sitting in a city with views that
are very different than them telling them that
02:01:50
this is the world they have to live by and i
think the lockdown fit in with that but a lot of other things too that the the daily podcast
i mentioned you know there was this guy just
02:02:00
saying what is what does nancy pelosi know about
what i want in my day-to-day life you know and so
02:02:07
there is a notion of being left alone brad's
story about his mom was like hey we're fine here like don't don't bother me and so there's
a there's a difference between trying to solve
02:02:17
a problem for them and being empathetic
to their point of view and and i would say
02:02:22
um having spent a lot of time in these areas and
being a slow talker and sometimes uh made fun of
02:02:27
for that there is a there's unquestionably a uh a
type of social bias against rural americans in in
02:02:38
urban cities there's just no doubt it's it's the
only joke you're allowed to tell without getting
02:02:43
rebuked in other words we can make fun of the
rednecks and we can oh absolutely all day long
02:02:50
all day long we can we can do a bill gurley
impersonation or no they're either they're either idiots well i mean if we and this is the
thing that i don't understand when i grew up
02:03:01
and i'm curious other people's opinions here and
i'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this it feels like the lessons i was taught in the 70s
and 80s which were america is strong because we're
02:03:11
a melting pot we take the best of all the cultures
and we try to make our own out of it and that you
02:03:18
get to make choices for your life and in your city
town and state that don't have to be the same as
02:03:26
the ones we make in new york so if you want to
have a handgun and you want to put it on your waistband in texas or wherever and in new york
city we don't want to have handguns in the city
02:03:35
because it's a little bit more crowded we can
we can have that difference and we can co-exist
02:03:42
and i don't know when we lost this script that
what makes america great is the differences and
02:03:48
that people living in different parts of a very
large diverse country can have different opinions
02:03:55
about you know abortion and and what month
abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning
02:04:02
of a gun or you know how tall a building can be
built when did that get taken off the table and
02:04:09
who took it off the table you know who took it
off the table was these hysterical libs the and i think the hysterical as much as this far right
trump you know uh you know flags on pickup trucks
02:04:22
surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible to
watch i i have equal disdain for hysterical libs
02:04:29
trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch
that they can't have a gun when they've never even been to a goddamn ranch and they've never had
to use a gun to protect their family because that
02:04:39
a cop coming to your ranch is going to take 45
minutes and that's what america needs to get back
02:04:46
to is respecting each other's different lifestyles
whether you're an atheist or you're devoutly
02:04:52
catholic viva la different roles let people live
their goddamn lives i think it's an astute point
02:04:58
bill j cal can we run down california next
yeah i'm very curious how prop 22 is doing
02:05:09
jesus the god damn people are allowed bill can you
tell everyone what prop 22 is and why yeah please
02:05:16
why why yeah but and and and and it would
transition to a whole bunch of conversations about
02:05:22
politics that i i feel more passionate about than
who gets elected which is if you know in order
02:05:30
to solve the problems that everyone's upset about
with an inequality and whatnot i think you have to
02:05:36
have massive innovation and you have to have job
growth and i don't know of any waves in history
02:05:44
where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in
standard living for broad swaths of a population
02:05:51
without being positively aligned with job growth
and what the where i'm going with this is my
02:05:57
biggest concern about washington i used to say the
main reasons silicon valley works is because it's
02:06:02
so [ __ ] far away from dc um and it's because
regulation is the friend of the incumbent and
02:06:09
it's the it's the opposite of innovation it locks
in things and it's very resistant to change and
02:06:16
um matt ridley's new book how innovation works
goes through this over a very very long period
02:06:22
of time it's it's fantastic and he talks about
why europe's gotten stuck in like the top 50
02:06:28
market cap companies in europe there's no new
entrant in 30 years or something like that um
02:06:35
because of this anyway prop 22 is a california
proposition reaction to a law that was put on
02:06:42
the california books called ab5 to the best
of my knowledge and this is consistent with
02:06:47
the editorial groups at the l.a times the
san francisco chronicle and the san diego tribune is that it was written entirely by a
union the seiu who has no representation over over
02:07:00
drivers or gig workers whatsoever they represent
service industry workers um and they would like
02:07:06
to represent uber drivers but they don't today
and i i think i think about this like a bunch of
02:07:12
people living in nevada trying to pass a law for
the citizens of california unfortunately because
02:07:18
of regulatory capture which which i think is
unfortunate on both sides of the aisle the
02:07:24
union's able through a woman named lorena gonzalez
is able to get the state to pass a law that that
02:07:31
basically targeted gig workers which was this new
job type that has all these fantastic benefits
02:07:37
anyway um immediately thereafter there were
several industries were like oh we don't want this
02:07:44
for us so them and their unions and constituents
started calling on sacramento with lorena gonzalez
02:07:50
and and and carving them out one by one so by the
by the time ab5 was set to be put in action there
02:07:58
were over 100 industries that have been carved out
because it was a stupid law written just to target
02:08:04
a single industry and it was written with
political donor dollars now in a moment that
02:08:10
i would say is completely outside of my realm of
what i expected um all of the newspaper all the
02:08:17
editorial boards for all of the major newspapers
in california came to the conclusion that this was
02:08:24
a bad law that this was crony capitalism written
with donor dollars and they all got behind prop 22
02:08:31
which is because we have this ballot initiative
in california is a way for the voters to tell
02:08:36
sacramento that they're full of [ __ ] and
that looks like what's happening right now
02:08:42
sorry for the long answer no no it's it's a great
answer and what what's particularly infuriating
02:08:49
about this and listen you and i are both um you
know investors in companies impacted by this
02:08:58
is that it's there's a group of people who've been
exempted from this and the list of people exempted
02:09:05
all seem to be just slightly more powerful
and slightly better paid um sales people
02:09:14
uh fishermen psychologists uh surgeons dentists
engineers architects lawyers etc and if this had
02:09:23
passed or if it still does pass because we're only
at 15 or 20 percent of people have been counted
02:09:29
so far but it's looking like prop 22 will pass
well in one of the businesses i run inside.com
02:09:36
we had to uh tell all of the freelancers we
were hiring who are writers that they would
02:09:43
lose their gig work with us because they can only
write five stories a year or ten stories a year
02:09:49
and vox one of the big publishing companies which
is incredibly left leaning as left as it gets
02:09:58
they stopped hiring people in california and they
fired and laid off all their california freelance
02:10:04
writers nick and what this does to people who are
doing gig economy 70 of them are working part-time
02:10:12
nick can you go back to uh can you i
need to switch topics nick can you go to georgia please for a second uh a
little little late-breaking data uh
02:10:21
over 400 000 votes outstanding in
atlanta and the suburbs um how close oh my god it's a statistical dead heat if you add
back in 400 000 for all by now i'm just saying
02:10:36
that's not where it's going to be but uh yeah yeah
i mean atlanta atlanta should go 70 percent by oh
02:10:44
sure it will yeah maybe 75 80 but i guess he'd
have to be 100 to zero instead catch up uh if
02:10:52
i'm being that right anyone anyone here cynical
enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that
they can be the center of importance tomorrow
02:11:04
no i just think it's it's almost midnight on
the east coast and people are tired and they're gonna go home and uh have a [ __ ] shower and
a shave and uh start again tomorrow that's the
02:11:14
reason gurley is so successful he always girly
always knows how to diagnose the individual
02:11:23
and he motivations diagnose the [ __ ]
out of it by just thinking about what one guy's motive is and then he's figured the
whole thing out he makes a billion dollars
02:11:29
overnight master of self-interest bill gurley here's the truth here's what it
comes down to so trump needs to win
02:11:37
two out of four of these states nevada
pennsylvania wisconsin or michigan and um he's got to win two of those four so it's
got to be probably pennsylvania and michigan or
02:11:50
pennsylvania and wisconsin but he's got to win
if he loses nevada he needs to win two out of
02:11:56
those three uh rust belt states or he wins nevada
plus like a pennsylvania yeah this is gonna be
02:12:03
this is gonna be really michigan's gonna go to
trump this is going to come down to pennsylvania
02:12:08
um and really to the to the philly suburbs i
was reading on twitter uh election official in
02:12:16
michigan says don't expect results before friday
that's crazy well and by the way i mean so so but
02:12:24
let's just think for a second how extraordinary
it is that trump looks like he might win michigan i mean just to go back to the you know
the theory of the of the case that we
02:12:33
were laying out earlier um about how china about
how trump picked up this this china trade issue
02:12:40
four years ago and and and this this time he
combined it with the lockdown issue um i mean
02:12:48
it's really amazing that that state is leaning
trump right now michigan michigan was two issues
02:12:54
it was uh you know working class democrats feeling
like trump's standing up for them with respect to
02:13:02
china and it was locked down and lockdown wasn't
it was an overwhelming issue uh you know for my
02:13:09
for my friends and my folks in michigan
for sure can we go back to prop 22 for a second jason because i think that this is
um you know this is a uh an issue of extreme
02:13:23
importance you know one of the things that bill
didn't say is you know we're talking earlier
02:13:30
chamath brought up you know what's the third way
you know we we we've we've built a social contract
02:13:37
on the back of kind of w-2 tight employment
for the better part of the last 70 years
02:13:44
we now have a massive part of the economy this gig
and it's not just this is all freelancers this is
02:13:50
all part-time workers and postcovid this is just
a massive portion of the economy and the idea
02:13:55
that we're going to tie all benefits to w-2 it's
just totally asinine it's got to be re-architected
02:14:02
and what prop 22 does is say it's ic plus
it's independent contractor plus benefits
02:14:12
right it's this idea that we don't
have to tie benefits to w-2 employment right so the nonsensical
no argument against prop 22
02:14:24
that this was an abandonment of the employee is
just that it combines flexibility with benefits
02:14:32
and you know from my perspective you're gonna see
if prop 22 passes which i think it will tonight
02:14:38
it's going to be the architecture that new york
and many other states follow they're certainly not
02:14:44
going to follow the disastrous ab5 example um but
we also know that it's not sufficient just to have
02:14:53
uh a bunch of workers with with zero healthcare
and you know and so i think that this is a uh
02:15:00
you know hats off to doordash instacart you know
uber and lyft trying to trying to design something
02:15:07
that is a middle way and you know chamath if we
don't have politicians designing a middle way
02:15:14
right then we need leadership out of the business
community design in a middle way well that
02:15:19
so you just said something so so profound and i
was gonna i would like to build on that i think
02:15:25
what california shows is that um if you have
a completely democratic up and down ticket
02:15:32
and it veers too far to this coastal naval
gazing socialist nanny state then it requires
02:15:40
money and companies to basically level the
playing field because the republicans can't do it
02:15:46
and it's possible to fight back and what's
interesting to me is nobody ever talks about
02:15:54
or or maybe they do and i don't just don't hear
it about how the equivalent happens on the right
02:16:01
um it'd be interesting to know if you guys know
of any states where there's just republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a
detached laissez faire where the whole state needs
02:16:12
to get corrected by for-profit organizations but
it's it seems like we're setting up for democrats
02:16:18
versus companies and people moving to republican
states to have low taxes and to be left alone
02:16:26
well you know it's a sensible set of outcomes in
california right i mean do you guys not agree that
02:16:31
the uh the the yes on prop 22 and saks it looks
like your commercial property tax proposition
02:16:39
that zuck helped fund may not pass it's oh
thank us we don't know it's a point one percent
02:16:46
differential yes which i don't know i agree it's
look the california ballot initiatives are looking really good right now it gives me a lot of hope
it gives me a lot of hope about the state because
02:16:56
the most anti-economic the most let's put a
business on friendly ballot initiatives looks like they're going down starting you know with
the win on prop 22 that's huge but then prop 15
02:17:07
you know we talked about that on a former um
episode of the all-in pod this was chipping away at prop 13 which is the great shield of the middle
class in terms of property taxes i'm not saying
02:17:18
you couldn't get a better tax regime that would
tax commercial property fair market value but you
02:17:23
sure wouldn't want to give that card away without
demanding some structural reform in exchange for
02:17:28
it which is why i thought it was just so stupid
for you know tech billionaires to be funding
02:17:34
you know these these ballot initiatives for higher
taxes you know this is definitely looking like
02:17:40
like a sensible kind of middle ground outcome
where a lot of folks who were concerned about california swinging all the way left and chasing
uh business and enterprise out of the state
02:17:50
um you know maybe kind of getting reeled in and
i think it gives some hope and gives some pause uh to a lot of folks who are trying to build
businesses in california to recognize that
02:17:59
you know hey there there is a thoughtful populace
here um totally agree and this is this is a great
02:18:04
outcome tonight i feel i i personally feel really
good about i i i agree if this sticks it it's um
02:18:12
it it is because the the big the big issue
with california right now is that we've got you know people we've got net migration out
of the state because it's just so hard uh for
02:18:22
for the middle class to live here and to
build businesses here i hope what we hear you know if if we're fortunate enough for prop
22 to pass i hear we i hope we see a coalition
02:18:34
among these companies come together and
really promote this as a national architecture
02:18:42
for a third way for independent
contractors free agents across the country uh to have a living wage and benefits it's totally
detached from w2 employment i really do believe
02:18:55
um a bunch of people on this call will were
helpful to an uh an effort i launched around
02:19:01
the board challenge you know it's high time for
the social consciousness of corporate america to take the leadership position and because it's
not coming out of washington and there's so many
02:19:12
issues that the solution lies among us and we got
to stop spending our election nights wondering
02:19:18
when somebody's going to deliver us from ourselves
we got to start delivering ourselves i think it's
02:19:23
a very how do you think you resolve that union i
mean like you know girlies girl are you still with
02:19:29
us yes how do you resolve things with the unions
after this i mean if prop 22 passes is there a uh
02:19:37
coming to the middle ground with unions and are
unions always just a kind of directional vector
02:19:43
you know they're always like a force on the system
they're not an absolute or objective right they're uh they're just always pushing in one direction
i mean what ends up happening with the resolution
02:19:53
with unions or is it just a constant back and
forth to try and manage the impact they'll have on policy politics tax free market etc so from
from my point of view the if you if you think
02:20:06
about citizens united which a lot of people are
upset about i think rightfully so uh because dc
02:20:12
is so money oriented like it's coin operated and
a lot of people have vivid awareness of it being
02:20:20
coin operated on the right through corporations
this is why the most heavily regulated industries
02:20:27
are the hardest to break into hardest to innovate
against what what i think they missed is how much
02:20:32
of its right is is his regulatory capture on
the left and the difference that a union has
02:20:38
versus a company is it's a natural monopoly and
so it actually has more power to write regulation
02:20:45
than a company does um but and it's going to
be around every single election cycle so if you
02:20:51
listen to them you know you get what you want and
the you know people have pointed out that the um
02:20:59
the gentleman or he's not a gentleman the the
individual that that that killed george floyd
02:21:04
probably wouldn't have been on the force
if it weren't for the union protecting him because of the stuff he had done before but
and this goes back to the red and blue and
02:21:13
blindness of just being dogmatic to your party
most of the people i know that are heavily uh
02:21:20
prescribed to the to the democratic tribe refuse
to acknowledge that one of the big problems in
02:21:27
police reform comes from the unions and and you
can't see those things unless you take yourself
02:21:32
out of that single place um i will tell you the
california situation i think is deeper than than
02:21:38
maybe what brad talked about there the the rule
the law that's causing more companies to leave
02:21:44
from my perspective than ab5 is something
called paga which was passed about 25 years
02:21:50
ago but has finally reached momentum where
it's causing problems for companies and
02:21:55
this was a law passed by um litigators with donor
dollars in sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a
02:22:03
case on behalf of the state against the company
and so they they're basically like local sheriffs
02:22:11
just running around bringing claims and of course
they'll settle every time the the the supposed
02:22:18
victims are getting about 10 percent on average
on packet claims and once your company's been
02:22:24
shook down on three or four packet claims by
a lawyer who's only going to give 10 cents on the dollar to these people that used to work for
you you finally just throw up your hands and say
02:22:34
you know i don't need to hire someone here i
hire someone somewhere else costs twice as much to hire someone here and so i i do worry that
if any state or country wants to move forward
02:22:48
in in our new economy they can't just be
completely anti-business anti-tech um that
02:22:55
i have a strong point of view on that but like it
won't work you're gonna grind to a halt hey jay
02:23:01
jason can we go back to the senate has anybody
prepared to i'm getting a read from my analysts
02:23:09
who are live blogging to me that the senate is
almost certain to go republican at this point with
02:23:14
iowa maine and north carolina going republican
that would do it and michigan and montana both in
02:23:21
real danger for democrats but even if they lost
both of those um you're going to have 51.49 to
02:23:28
republicans in the senate hey brad why are markets
trading down a bit right now from where they were
02:23:36
um i still have it at uh you know nasdaq 280. so
i'm not i'm not prepared to call that down i just
02:23:44
think that's what they did yeah it's bouncing
and both and bovada i guess which is the um
02:23:51
nevada just came back up they stopped
taking action now they've got trump uh minus 150 is that how you say it and joe biden
plus 115 so to if you put a hundred dollars on
02:24:03
joe biden you win 15 is that right and if you
oh you're 100 you win 115. you win 115. right
02:24:11
you probably win 15 115 is very close jason and
donald trump if you were to put a hundred dollars
02:24:20
in you make 150. is that right phil hellmuth you
definitely know a 150 to 100. exactly got it okay
02:24:32
i think the more surprising thing at this point
is it's almost you know i'm certainly going to
02:24:37
uh live to regret this but it appears at this
point that the market's going to be up tomorrow
02:24:43
almost either way and if you look at what the
market was saying last week uh you know just yet
02:24:49
another surprise um the market is celebrating the
fact that this is a close election um but you know
02:24:57
if it's a uh if it's a contested transfer of power
and we have a you know there's there's certainly
02:25:03
a lot of room for uncertainty uncertainty to still
be injected into this but it likes the fact that
02:25:10
we whether it's biden or trump uh who pulls out
the presidency is certainly liking the fact that
02:25:16
it's going to be a close election right now just
to give people an indication fox news has joe
02:25:22
biden at 227 electoral votes and trump at 204
the new york times is at 213 and 136 for trump
02:25:32
the senate on the new york times is 44 dems 45
republicans and i don't know how we're supposed
02:25:41
to tr who we're supposed to trust here there's
a senate the senate on fox news is 45 democrat
02:25:49
44 republican so this is a dead heat which i think
could lead us towards the great reconciliation
02:25:59
which is if trump comes out of office biden
becomes the elder statesman biden reaches across
02:26:04
the aisle we have a massive balance of power in
the senate everybody's forced to work together
02:26:11
in order to get anything done am i correct in my
reading of this as a non-political expert well
02:26:16
what you're describing is the great gerontocracy
we'll have 78 year old biden negotiating 79 year
02:26:23
old mcconnell and schumer is what 74 75. pelosi's
over 80. cindy hoyer her deputy is over 80.
02:26:31
so who do we have in the death pool because two
or three of those are dying in the next four years oh so i don't mean to make it dark but i mean
just looking at mcconnell and his bruised hands
02:26:43
and lips and everything uh something's eating
him alive i'm not exactly sure what it is but uh
02:26:48
that's a bad bad scene yeah is that on the betting
markets phil that's not on the betting markets
02:26:56
and by the way the other direction you're talking
about trump who's 74 negotiating i mean you know
02:27:01
it's it's we've got to get younger in our
political leadership across the board uh it's
02:27:08
there it's ridiculous who who had a better chance
of beating trump would bernie elizabeth warren or
02:27:17
booty judge would one of those three if you had
to pick one of those three and i think it's one of those reads or you could pick your other which
one would have performed better brad you said
02:27:26
i was brad on mayor pete for sure i'm with brad on
that one yeah so bill you believe mayor pete would
02:27:34
have had a better performance he would have been
more inspiring he would have been more energy i i
02:27:39
think that there is a lot of people that want
what brad talked about which is someone who's
02:27:46
who's rational and calm and and centered and i
also think that if you look at the history of of
02:27:52
presidential campaigns um most americans favor
an outsider and i i attribute that to personally
02:27:59
to them feeling like washington's on the hook and
been bought and you know biden would be an outlier
02:28:06
for a lifetime senator there was a lot there was
a lot of excitement around obama there was a lot of excitement about reagan who came you know
from hollywood there was a lot of excitement
02:28:15
about clinton so you know a lot of governors a
lot of a lot of first-time senators is what you
02:28:21
tend to see and so pete fit that mold why
some youth and some charisma would be nice
02:28:29
uh and and david of the two davids and michael
who do you think would have put up the best fight
02:28:36
because tonight if biden does win and it's
feeling maybe like that it's going to happen
02:28:43
so it's clearly a jump ball here it's any it's
coming down to the last 30 sec last minute of the
02:28:48
game if biden does lose who would have been the
candidate that would have beaten trump if there
02:28:57
was another one who would have had the next best
chance david's well biden's still looking pretty good right now so i don't know that there i don't
know that there was somebody better but i do agree
02:29:06
that i always was most impressed with buddha
judge out of the candidates in the sense that
02:29:13
i thought he was the most articulate i thought
he was the best debater i thought he was the best on tv and he knew how to reach for the center and
he had the kind of obama thing of having identity
02:29:24
politics working for him but
without making a big deal out of it um and um and so yeah i mean what you mean by
that mr sachs well he's he's gay he'd be the
02:29:35
first gay president but he's not making that
an explicit part of the reason to vote for him
02:29:41
and but it would have been a first and his voters
would know that but he doesn't want to you know he doesn't want to run on the idea of identity
politics and so so he's not leading with that he's
02:29:50
not leading with it i think that's a smart way to
play it it's you know obama was obviously being an
02:29:55
incredibly important first but he didn't lead with
that as the reason why you should vote for him
02:30:01
um so to a certain extent hillary did lead with
that hillary was going to be there i'm with her
02:30:06
you know her was the slogan yeah and i think a lot
of people did want to make that first but i think
02:30:13
you have those votes you need to make the case
to everybody else so yeah i think he he's a great
02:30:20
political athlete and um you know someone's got
probably a bright future in the democratic party
02:30:26
i'm seeing some people on twitter say that biden's
now becoming the favorite but i just checked betfair it's uh basically 1.1 it's very close now
kind of crazy this is going to come down to one
02:30:37
this is going to come down to pennsylvania and
michigan and it's going to take days to do those counts and we're probably going to end up in the
courts who would have done a better job here look
02:30:49
i mean the market already voted right it voted for
for biden he is the the leading candidate i don't
02:30:55
know if anyone else would have outperformed biden
at this point i think you know the next in line was a very different ideology and that's bernie
and um you know bernie really is the contrast to
02:31:07
um you know the points that we were making earlier
you either think that the way forward is to have
02:31:13
the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in
a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet
02:31:18
and bernie sanders is the you know the guy
in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines are
all going to be free if you elect me
02:31:27
um and that's a broadly you know like everyone
votes for that guy and let me uh let me ask you
02:31:34
a question brad that i build off of david i just
think the mayor pete by the way let me just say i think mayor pete is a great articulate thoughtful
guy and he's certainly appealing to those of us
02:31:44
who want to have a thoughtful well-articulated
response to the problems we're facing but i think that there is a guttural kind of you
know innate um drive that folks want they either
02:31:53
want free [ __ ] or they want to be left alone
and you know you you're going to need to appeal to one of those two motives brad how would you
have voted had your choice been and i'm going
02:32:04
to go around the horn on this so everybody gets
a chance to think about it except really brad brad if you had the choice yep elizabeth warren
slash bernie hardcore socialist let's go with
02:32:16
bernie since i think he's even more on the
socialist side or trump could you have conceived
02:32:22
of voting for trump over bernie or would you
have voted actually voted for bernie sanders
02:32:30
take your time and you can think out loud when
you answer no i mean i i have to say that um you
02:32:36
know i have a nine and 12 year old boy boys and
um the conversation we had is it's not just about
02:32:45
what you stand for it's about how you stand for
it character it's character and i just couldn't
02:32:51
tolerate uh trump's character either in
my own life my own level of anxiety or or standing for that you know and and telling
my boys that that's a okay way to lead
02:33:05
and so for me i was willing to vote against my own
interests and taking comfort in the fact that four
02:33:13
years under any president is not enough to really
change the arc of uh of of the country um but to
02:33:21
send a signal that you know how you lead matters
in this country and uh a rejection of this form of
02:33:27
leadership yeah but brad if you didn't think that
bernie sanders policies would actually i mean if
02:33:32
you thought they would actually pass everything
you wanted to do you couldn't conceive that of voting for trump yeah i mean you know again
like i would just say that i would have bet that
02:33:43
the system that we have would have been slow
enough in moving that that bernie would not
02:33:49
have been you know that when weighing those two
evils right that you know again for me socialism
02:33:56
versus trump are your twitter i can i can tolerate
the mean-spiritedness perhaps myself um but you
02:34:02
know like i'm trying to you know i think it is
important that we we say that like this is not
02:34:08
what we stand for this is not a an honorable
way to lead and and certainly when it comes to
02:34:14
sitting around the dinner table every night and
talking to them about the way i expect them to behave in their form of leadership you know that
that mean-spiritedness just didn't work for me
02:34:23
would anybody else like to answer that question
or is it just well i'm not going to disagree with any of that but i would just like to point out
i'd like to ask a question actually which is
02:34:32
if if this president was so bad that he had to
be impeached why wasn't that a campaign issue
02:34:39
i don't remember being mentioned once by biden
that trump was impeached you would think that
02:34:46
impeaching the president would be something
you'd want to make a major campaign issue so i just think this idea that trump is the only
one who's dishonest and unethical um you know that
02:34:57
whole russian insane hoax that they put us through
for years they put this whole country through
02:35:04
before the guy even took office they were trying
to delegitimize his election i mean come on you
02:35:10
can't just look at trump's behavior which i agree
is outrageous and not look at the other side and
02:35:15
say they're doing the same thing and this is
like a they're they're sort of like co-equal
02:35:22
partners in this chaos that's been uh created
david let's suppose they're co-founders in chaos
02:35:28
let's be candid all these politicians that we've
had to live with in our lifetime are grifters we know that and their kids are grifters putting
that aside do you think there is any chance
02:35:38
that the russians have not bought an inordinate
amount of apartments from donald trump at
02:35:43
extraordinary prices are you just making that up
or i mean i'm just going with my gut right here
02:35:52
yeah qed case in point because you feel it you
can now make an accusation that the president
02:35:58
has received bribes from the russians i
mean come on well we know and actually i i want to i want to bring up the election we
all know putin interfered with the election
02:36:06
and we all know he interfered on behalf of
one candidate okay i i i honestly unless you
02:36:12
don't trust the cia unless you don't trust the
fbi unless you don't trust our agents really i mean you believe you're still holding the
russians every election we've ever had jason
02:36:25
we have bob mueller with a team of like 18 like pitbull democratic prosecutors and
50 specialists what happened to matthew
02:36:33
fbi agents let me finish who investigated for two
years and they couldn't find any collusion i mean
02:36:40
and you're still hanging on to this this insane
fallacy and you're wondering why the american
02:36:46
people are turning against why they're
willing to vote for trump again come on can't you see the insanity of the other side
well i mean i did see manafort go to jail and
02:36:56
pay a 25 30 million dollar fine and i did see that
trump's kids took the meeting with the russians
02:37:04
to try to set up a secret back channel so
while they might not have been smart enough or effective enough to actually collude there
certainly was a lot of graph going on this is
02:37:13
this is this is on the level if not worse than
the whole hunter biden hard drive story which i thought was 100 which i thought was a ridiculous
story an attempt to smear up biden come on for you
02:37:27
to lay this integrity issue on trump alone which
i agree there's some truth there and not lay it on
02:37:35
his democratic inquisitors in the senate who put
in the house who put us through this impeachment
02:37:41
hooks for two years come on we're starting to
sound a little like am radio let's get it we did
02:37:46
go there no sax is a free thinker i like this he's
a free thinker but it's like you guys but we're
02:37:51
but this word impeachment this entire campaign
all sacks is saying is own both sides of this uh
02:38:04
can you say the word impeachment
impeachment i just said okay there we go i was wondering what happened to
that word you know normally no i know
02:38:18
nick can you please throw
georgia back on the map please are you guys seeing this that that now they're
tipping georgia back to uh biden who is
02:38:33
this is insane where well they're
also saying that arizona may have been prematurely called for biden so
arizona may be back in play for trump
02:38:45
that was really weird that they
called arizona so early wasn't it and only fox only fox has done it i think yeah
nick where do you have how do you have georgia
02:38:53
reporting right now how much is in right now uh
yeah click on georgia just for a second we have 81
02:39:00
percent yeah the times had it flip on at 9 13 p.m
i have a screenshot which shows biden plus four
02:39:07
and then north carolina is now just trump plus
1.1 michael well in arizona when they show that
02:39:13
everybody's reporting it's precincts reporting
right it doesn't show uh mail-ins or by precinct
02:39:19
or mail-ins or at the state level well a precinct
will have both mail-ins and uh election day votes
02:39:28
and when they and when they say 81 of
precincts reporting that doesn't mean that 81
02:39:33
of precincts are finished reporting it's a very
misleading uh number because what it means that
02:39:41
81 percent of precincts have reported what they
have but it doesn't mean they're finished counting
02:39:47
necessarily right so you know atlanta is probably
the precincts in atlanta have probably reported
02:39:53
some vote in fact we we see that when we click on
it but there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote
02:39:59
in georgia there could be outstanding vote uh in
some precincts in north carolina as well and they
02:40:04
at this point once you get into the 95 and above
range they do tend to be uh urban centers that are
02:40:12
that obviously have a lot more vote to count it
gets late at night they go home uh they finish in
02:40:18
the morning or three days later if you go zoom in
on arizona please 76 percent of voting reporting
02:40:25
i mean how is this possible 54 basically i don't
know but in all those things you're going to have
02:40:31
the intensity you had around hanging chads in
dade county you're just gonna have like massive
02:40:38
tension and drama around counting each of these
last things yeah we're gonna have five floridas
02:40:46
you knew 2020 would do this on the way out the
door yeah so so arizona they counted all the absentee ballots for the mail-in ballots first
but the in-person voting hasn't been counted yet
02:40:56
so you can't call that state if they haven't
counted all the in-person because trump's going to do better with you know election day ballots
i agree it's pretty premature well it depends
02:41:05
on whether they're considering phoenix is part
of that right okay why is nevada only reporting
02:41:12
one percent yeah local news there are now
groups of people gathering at oakland city hall
02:41:20
so they they go there when like what night aren't they riding
in oakland i mean come on in berkeley they smashed a pizzeria window they do
it every other week hey hey guys i wanna i wanna
02:41:36
just discuss an idea i have that might be a little
bit cheeky but since jkl and i were getting into it before i kind of wanna i want to talk about it
a little bit um okay let's do it which is i i've
02:41:48
called the trump derangement score um which is
if you go to twitter that yeah trump derangement
02:41:55
score which is if you go to twitter and search
trump from your username it'll show you how many
02:42:03
tweets you've you've published that you've posted
that mention the word trump and um so i did this
02:42:09
before the show to see which bestie had tweeted
the most and see what the score was and my sense
02:42:15
is like if your your score is like zero to ten
you haven't really paid a lot of attention to
02:42:21
trump it's probably like very healthy and
then if you're in like the 10 to 30 range
02:42:26
you're paying a little bit more attention but this
could be a normal interesting here it comes here
02:42:35
hold on if you're in like the 30 to 50 range i
think you pretty much are infected there's two
02:42:41
strains there's kind of the magus strain and
then there's the resistance strain but clearly you've tested positive for trump derangement
syndrome and then i would say there's kind of
02:42:52
like an advanced level where um you can't even
count how many tweets there are you've got to
02:42:57
like scroll and like you keep scrolling and
you can't even get to the bottom and that's that's like a level of infection where you
need to immediately quarantine yourself
02:43:05
and um so anyway i i i did this and uh anyway the
winner actually was freeberg freeburg only had
02:43:13
he had a score of one he literally only had one
tweet mentioning trump for the last four years i
02:43:20
only had eight but in fairness five of them were
posted yesterday to advertise this this pod so
02:43:28
um my one was during this podcast by the way yeah jamaat at 20. i had 12.
you had about 20 about 20 yeah
02:43:38
and then jkl you you were in scrolling territory
i couldn't even i couldn't even count i gave up
02:43:46
well i i feel for you i really feel for you
that you're hurting over this election like
02:43:52
you know i don't like i'm not trying to make
fun of you or see you hey guys guys another
02:43:57
just another quick update here that um uh dekalb
county fulton county and cobb county in georgia
02:44:04
are pro-democrat they're huge uh and they're
at 31 58 and 70 and if you play these
02:44:14
out there's somewhere between 400 and 500
000 uh potential incremental votes for biden
02:44:26
which would eke out georgia for biden
potentially according to just this last just looking at fox news i think that they're
trolling the libs because they have trump at 210
02:44:44
and they have joe biden at 237 uh the the new york
times has let me just make sure i'm refreshing
02:44:52
here and have the latest data 213 to 145. so
fox is aggressively calling electoral votes
02:45:03
at a level that the new york times is is far behind
like behind by 50 at least a hundred
02:45:16
what what is the explanation of this wow
uh i this is i mean this is that's um msnbc 205 electoral votes for joe biden which
uh nbc has been the most conservative overall
02:45:33
what happens if it's tied it can tie right
we still have that scenario on the table 269 269 uh uh yeah there's probably a way to
to get there uh let's see well interestingly
02:45:47
uh biden did not get that one district in omaha
nebraska that he had targeted that obama won
02:45:55
his first time that would give you one electoral
vote in in nebraska nebraska and maine both you
02:46:02
get you get uh two for winning the state and you
get one for each of the congressional districts so
02:46:08
while while biden was not going to play in
overall in nebraska he had a shot at omaha
02:46:13
and that 270 268 scenario we talked about
earlier could have potentially been 269
02:46:19
269 if that omaha district was in play but the
polling really missed michael just to jump in
02:46:25
uh bg girl girly's gotta hop off boys say
bye girl thanks for having me i appreciate it
02:46:35
speaking of bill gurley uh how about texas
i mean i think i think texas is definitely going to be republican right michael yeah
that one's trending far away from biden he
02:46:45
looks like he's down about 500 thousand how many
points is that no one's called that yet right it's bizarre that florida and texas are
still listed as uh uh right so that could
02:46:54
explain what jkl's looking at between the
disparity and yeah i don't blame fox if
02:47:00
if fox called texas i don't blame them but i think
arizona yeah that might that might that would explain your difference jacob texas and florida
yeah fox yeah that's 60 67 votes right there
02:47:13
yeah that explains it yeah so the new york times
has not called florida or texas the new york times
02:47:19
had florida at 98 percent i think it's like 99.59
or something right if you add uh 38 for texas
02:47:26
29 for florida you're 67 67 until the 145
puts you at 212. and joe biden at 2 13.
02:47:36
which was one point difference ralph warnock
and kelly loffler and a runoff for the senate
02:47:41
seat in georgia that's just incredible i mean hey
guys a comment and then a question uh looks like
02:47:47
the washington post is projecting that california
approved prop 22. yeah um so there is a uh that's
02:47:55
the first one is that due to uber speaking
right now i think right do we have to try is not speaking yet but he's he's getting applied
to speak the implied volatility on uber stock
02:48:06
at the close today was 14 but by the way every
ballot initiative in san francisco the city level
02:48:11
ballot initiatives passed one of them the prop h
was good all the rest were a disaster so stanford
02:48:17
so the the state-level ballot initiatives were
pretty good news for california but san francisco
02:48:22
okay not much so you know in in terms of what
we were talking about earlier about creating
02:48:27
a more busi business friendly environment
unfortunately what happened in san francisco i think california as a whole is positive
with prop 22 prop 15 failing um but every
02:48:39
single crazy ballot initiative in san francisco
pass so it's just getting crazier and i don't
02:48:44
know if you did this in your household but with
my ten-year-old brad i went through my wife and i jade we we went through each of the uh ballot
initiatives as many as we could we listened to
02:48:55
little encapsulations of what they were and we
talked about the stem cell one and i just thought
02:49:02
why is california which is losing all of these
businesses adding to the tax burden stem cell
02:49:12
research and why isn't that being done by
the private sector if there is a huge prize
02:49:18
to be had with stem cell why would we have
california send billions of dollars on this
02:49:24
when we're losing all the this government i'm
wondering uh you know how how people thought about something like that like the stem cell
did you vote for that david to continue to
02:49:35
have california flip the bill for stuff by the
way just before you answer david i took the pages of the ballot initiative and i use them to
keep my white truffles from developing humidity
02:49:46
i mean basically the truth of the matter jason
is that when when i don't understand a ballot initiative i just vote against it and i didn't
really understand that the stem cell balance
02:49:56
initiative or why even why if that was a spending
priority why it couldn't just be handled by the
02:50:01
state you know the legislature i didn't understand
why that needed to be a ballot initiative so you
02:50:07
know i feel like ballot initiative like i'll
support them when this in the state legislature does something wrong like 202 is a perfect example
where you know lorraine or whatever the had this
02:50:17
tremendous amount of power passed this crazy ab5
and the people had to overrule that um so i feel
02:50:24
like that's where like these balances make sense
is when you want to overrule the legislature but
02:50:29
you know it's kind of crazy for to be passing
these laws directly when you know we don't know that much about them concur i mean the founders
had this vision of representative democracy not
02:50:41
direct democracy and that's generally a good idea
so jason i don't know you have to kind of like
02:50:47
what director the results that direct democracy
has produced tonight the initiatives may be saving us from ourselves since we don't have in this
state unfortunately a viable republican party
02:50:57
to represent us uh this the initiatives may be our
last line of defense well i think i think you're
02:51:03
right in terms of overruling things but like
in in san francisco you know every single about initiative path and i think most of them are well
there's no saving san francisco we all knew that
02:51:14
well i don't like hearing that come to
l.a baby we got a few more years at least
02:51:21
um what is the consensus viewer seems to be the
markets are still up nasdaq futures up 280 still
02:51:29
what what causes us to wake up tomorrow
or the next day and have the futures down
02:51:38
three four five hundred bits there's there's
one thing and so far it hasn't happened and if we avoid it we're going to fade a really big out
here um which is trump declares victory right now
02:51:54
i think that is the disaster scenario because i
think biden's gonna get up there he's not going
02:52:00
to say much of anything he'll be very kind of
down the middle you know kind of let's take a wait and see approach we're waiting until
tomorrow there's a lot to go grind it out
02:52:09
blah blah blah but if trump comes out and says we
won we're done let's move on it's going to be uh
02:52:16
panic because look i mean he's you can't certify
georgia apparently right so you know there's a
02:52:24
there's a path where there's seven or eight states
that have to go through on a meticulous recount
02:52:30
i think this thing is back to a coin flip i
mean trump now has to win georgia michigan
02:52:37
and pennsylvania in order to win the presidency
if biden wins any one of those three states he
02:52:43
wins he has to be a three for three in georgia
pennsylvania and michigan three four three and now
02:52:52
well but we're saying that may they may become
ungod um so if if he loses georgia he loses
02:52:58
if he loses pennsylvania he loses michigan he
loses assuming he's already um lost wisconsin
02:53:06
and um and arizona so hey guys biden's coming
out but my analysts just run this analysis
02:53:14
if biden wins ann arbor and detroit
by the same percentage as 2016 that's 420 000 biden incremental votes versus
the three hundred thousand current trump lead
02:53:27
right just implying he wins michigan
we feel good about where we are we really do i'm here to tell you tonight we
believe we're on track to win this election
02:53:48
we knew because of the unprecedented early
vote in a mail-in vote that's going to take
02:53:53
a while we're going to have to be patient until
we the hard work of tallying votes is finished
02:54:00
and it ain't over until every vote
is counted every ballot is counted but we're feeling good we're feeling
good about where we are we believe one
02:54:16
of the nets has suggested we've already won
arizona but we're confident about arizona
02:54:21
that's a turnaround we also just called it from
minnesota and we're still in the game in georgia
02:54:29
although that's not one we expected and we're
feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan
02:54:40
and by the way it's going to take time to
count the votes we're going to win pennsylvania
02:54:49
come on there it is talking folks in philly
allegheny county scranton and they're really
02:54:54
encouraged by the turnout of what they
see look you know we can know the results
02:55:00
as early as tomorrow morning but it may
take a little longer as i've said all along
02:55:06
it's not my place or donald trump's
place to declare who's won this election that's the decision of the american people
but i'm optimistic about this outcome
02:55:17
and i want to thank every one of you who came
out and voted in this election and by the way chris coons and the democrats congratulations
here in delaware hey john you're the gov yeah
02:55:32
like the whole team man you've done a great
job i'm grateful to the poll workers to our
02:55:38
volunteers our canvassers everyone who
participated in this democratic process and i'm grateful to all of my supporters
here in delaware and all across the nation
02:55:48
thank you thank you thank you and folks you
heard me say it before every time i walk out
02:55:55
of my grandpa's house up in scranton he yelled
joey keep the faith and my grandma when she was
02:56:01
laughing oh no joey spread it keep the faith guys
we're gonna win this thank you thank you thank you
02:56:09
oh my god well there you go guys before before
before we just i just want to give a big shout out and thank you to brad gerstner um thanks brian
incredible investor and person and thinker thank
02:56:20
you bg for uh being on the call thanks for having
me guys really appreciate it incredible and thanks
02:56:25
to bill gurley who stepped in and phil hellmuth
uh this has been a great first time effort uh
02:56:32
we we we had uh i think about 4 000 of you at the
peak here and and certainly five or six thousand
02:56:39
over the night this was an experiment i think a
successful one um and of course i'm speaking about
02:56:45
this country america what a successful experiment
it has been jason jason you can unclench
02:56:54
your your nether regions because i think we're
going to be okay you think we're going to be okay yeah it's very tight anyway see you guys
good night thank you yeah all right thank you
02:57:03
i'm changing my prediction to scenario three
biden president let's do that as we rap besties
02:57:11
i'm still sticking with biden i'm still sticking
with biden okay trump just tweeted that i will
02:57:17
be making a statement tonight a big win so we
we're either in scenarios well i mean two three
02:57:23
and four two three and four are all still four
just for i don't know if the viewers remember scenario one was a buying landslide that's
clearly not happening two was um was basically
02:57:34
um what was was um trump pulling a big upset
that's still on the table i'd say probably
02:57:41
49 chance for right now 40 45 chance uh
then you've kind of got the scenario three
02:57:48
was the soft landing where biden wins the
presidency but the republicans take the uh
02:57:53
the senate and i think it's probably like the 51
and then scenario four was the [ __ ] show that
02:57:59
was a totally inconclusive outcome and here we
are here we are so i mean the reality is i think
02:58:05
this thing i mean i think it's probably at the end
of the day 51 49 in favor of biden right now but
02:58:12
we probably have at least three more
days and maybe a bunch of court cases yeah this could this could be really bad i mean
we may not know who the winner is until december
02:58:21
and this may require another supreme court
case i think we'll know within a week who won
02:58:27
but it's going to be a it's going to be a white
knuckle kind of week yeah well no i think we're
02:58:32
gonna know it tomorrow yeah exactly i think we're
gonna know tomorrow i'm with trump i i i guess you know i guess based on the electoral map i'd
say it's 51 49 in favor of biden at this moment
02:58:42
okay so sax wants biden to win uh friedberg
where are you at the end of this [ __ ] show
02:58:51
i was known as 2020. i was looking at
which island in hawaii i want to go to i'm looking at austin and then
just to uh look at our final
02:59:03
the dots are getting a little better for trump
i wonder yeah who the hell knows yeah this has
02:59:09
been an incredible evening i feel better about
the market reaction i feel like you know those of us who operate businesses and try and build
businesses and you know have employees and all
02:59:18
the stuff i mean i'm disappointed in san francisco
it's a [ __ ] [ __ ] show of the city but uh i
02:59:23
feel good about the fact that markets are taking
this well and it you know means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and shout out
bill lee in hawaii muthi what's your pick and then
02:59:35
j cal and then we're we're going to bounce yeah
i have to go with the math i think trump a dollar 60 is pretty significant so i have to pick that
direction and i'm going by all right everybody
02:59:46
this has been a special edition of the love
you besties thank you michael thank you thanks for having me i enjoyed it thank you later guys
the poker table soon hopefully soon yes bye bye