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All right, everybody. Welcome back to
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the number one podcast in the world, the
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allin podcast. Episode 273.
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It's a huge week. Saxs is our show. We
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got to get Mark Beni off, CEO of
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Salesforce.
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>> I'm the only one left here. You're the
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only one left. That's why that's how I
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made it on.
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>> No software CEOs, right, to China.
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>> There's no software uh CEOs in China.
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>> Interesting. But did you get the invite?
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What's your what's your status with this
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administration because you were
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obviously very famous for, you know,
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being a Democrat on the left? Um, and
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>> I'm not a Democrat on the left. I never
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have been.
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>> What are you talking about? You donated
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to all these folks and now you're kind
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of in Trump's camp. What is it?
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>> Listen, um, uh, the number one thing is,
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hey, I'm here to support the country.
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>> That's what I do.
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>> Okay.
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>> Yeah.
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>> So, you're right in the middle. You have
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uh an allegiance to America.
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>> I hope so.
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>> Yeah.
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>> I'm not a Democrat or Republican.
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>> You're an independent.
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>> I'm an American.
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>> Okay. I like it. Ben off got the invite
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to the two hottest tickets. He got the
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invite to Windsor Castle in Tales and
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then he got the invite uh when Prince
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Charles came here too. I saw he was in
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Tales then too.
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>> And also we were at that Saudi dinner
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too. Weren't you there?
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>> I did not go to that one. All right.
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Well, we have a big docket here. The
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Trumpi summit has begun. That is the
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number one story right now after a
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two-month delay because of the war in
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Iran. This is the first visit to China
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since 2017.
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Seventh face-to-face meeting for Trump
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and President Xi. There are 12 hours, 15
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hours ahead of us. Today, Thursday was
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officially day one. Here's what
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happened. China agreed that the straight
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of Hormuz should remain open with no
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military commitment and that Iran should
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not have a nuclear weapon. So, we're in
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sync on that. On Taiwan, this is a
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little spicy. She warned that quote if
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handled poorly the two countries will
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collide or even clash putting the entire
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USChina relationship in an extremely
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dangerous situation. Poly market says
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Taiwan is safe for 2026 only 6% chance
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China invades this year on 23 million in
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volume which is a lot of volume 17%
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chance roughly triple
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that something happens by the end of
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2027. There's been a lot of debate. Uh
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some people say it will happen after
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Trump is out of office. Some people
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think it's going to happen while he's in
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office on trade. She committed to buy
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more soybeans, US oil,
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LNG, and 200 Boeing jets. She said the
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talks laid out a vision for
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constructive, strategic, and stable
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ties. Uh Trump was effusive in his
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praise uh for his friendship, giving the
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disclaimer that people don't like it
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when he praises she. Let's stop here and
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have a bit of a discussion. Freedberg,
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you uh have been a bit obsessed with
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this relationship and the bipolar
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nature of it. What are your thoughts
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here? And what is the goal for Trump?
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What is winning for Trump coming out of
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this? What is winning for she?
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I mean, she made comments in his uh
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opening remarks that it would be ideal
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if the United States and China could
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avoid the Thusidities trap, which as
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you'll recall, we talked about with
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Graeme Allison and we've talked about
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several times over the last few years
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that as a a rising power meets a kind of
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declining power, there's always some
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moment where you end up in this kind of
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state of conflict. And the question is,
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can the US and China avoid conflict and
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find a path to cooperation, which has
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happened a few times in history when we
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found ourselves in this moment, but
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doesn't often happen. And I think the
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way to kind of think about the
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opportunity is if you're in a resource
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expansive world where you are increasing
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productivity and increasing production
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globally at an accelerating pace,
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perhaps there's less of a reason to have
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conflict. Perhaps there's a way that uh
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both societies, both countries can
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increase the quality of life for their
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people without taking it away from the
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other side. And in a world where you're
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more resource constrained or resource
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static, that becomes less possible. You
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have to fight and grab land and grab
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territory and grab resources from the
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other side.
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And it seems like in this moment when we
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are seeing these extraordinary
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technology shifts unlocked by AI and
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automation and biotech and all of these
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kind of moments of which could be true
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abundance ahead of us. It seems like the
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perfect moment to say hey maybe the
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world can be more multipolar. It doesn't
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need to be uniolar. It doesn't need to
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be bipolar but everyone can participate
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in the expansion of the pie. And I think
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that that's kind of the idealistic way
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to look at the opportunity in front of
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the administration and Chinese
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leadership right now. Is there a way to
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kind of look at the next 30 years and
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ask the question, how do we all share
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proportionally in growing the pie and
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not find ourselves in a moment of
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conflict where we assume the pie is
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static? That's I think hopefully the
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message that comes out of this from an
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administration political perspective. It
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just seems like this is going to be a
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major coup for the president if he can
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walk away with a series of trade deals
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with China that increase job security,
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increase prosperity, increase income
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levels, increase investment in America
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and American jobs. It would be a huge
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win. And I think that's the tactical
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stuff that people will be truly looking
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for. And I think the big strategic
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question which I care most about which
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is avoiding conflict. Is there a way we
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can chart an economic and cooperative
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path that doesn't involve eating each
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other and involves sharing in a bigger
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pie?
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>> Chimoth, why is Trump bringing all of
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these CEOs with him and what does
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success look like uh coming out of this
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meeting?
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>> I think that you find a resolution and a
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path forward with China through economic
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cooperation. It's the largest consumer
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economy in the world.
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It's still largely closed off. And so I
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think what this is was about bringing
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some amount of financial firepower with
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them so that they could start to
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penetrate that market. Planes, cars,
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chips, you know, very much hard
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equipment type stuff. I've said this
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before, but I think the Chinese are very
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much a top- down confusion societal
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philosophy,
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whereas Americans are much more bottoms
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up kind of an individualist
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construction.
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The fact that we're so different
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actually gives us a lot of room to find
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cooperation and not find conflict. And I
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think at the center of that is economic
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cooperation. I had a friend call me this
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morning, very prominent Democrat. And
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you know, he was the one that called out
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the media, which I was surprised by, and
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he said, you know, the media gets it all
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wrong because they're talking about why
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is he bringing these CEOs? And instead
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the reality is that the simplest and
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shest path to a no conflict dant with
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China is economic entanglement and it
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has to be birectional because really for
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so many years it's been one way where
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they're sending us the cheap goods that
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they've wanted.
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So I think strategically it's good and I
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think you know I'll just take a slightly
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different take on what Freick said. I
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think behind closed doors they're
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probably just figuring out how to divide
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the pie.
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>> Uh unpack that for a second. divide
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which pie the the globe the economy the
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the western hemisphere versus
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>> look China China still needs a lot of
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energy they also need a lot of critical
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technologies that America provides and
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so I think that there's a trade there
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and the quit proquo is there are certain
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regions of the world where we want them
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to deescalate their participation in
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central South America being probably the
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most important and then the second is
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probably in the Middle East and then
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maybe the third is just to find some
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reasonable view of the Asia pack region
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together and I think there's a trade
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there to be done and in that you kind of
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start to carve up the world into a
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pretty easily identifiable bipolar
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construction.
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They also uh Mark need customers uh to
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buy their goods and we've had a bit of a
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uh mixed signals there. Tariffs
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obviously last year sticking it to China
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in a pretty hard way. the decoupling
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after COVID. Hey, we need to be
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independent energy, PPE, drugs, chips
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from China. Now, we're kind of saying,
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hey, let's come to the table and build
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connective tissue. So, sort that out for
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us on a business level. Should the two
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countries be deeply entwined? And then
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how do we manage having too much
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dependency on China?
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Well, you heard it today from President
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Xi when he said he wants a wider door.
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And that means that he wants the door of
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business to open even wider between the
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two countries. We have our absolute best
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salespeople there. Not just our
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president, who has to be one of the best
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salespeople I've ever met, but also
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we've got Elon, we've got Jensen selling
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chips,
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>> Kelly Ortberg selling planes,
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>> Kelly selling planes. He's already sold
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200. He wants to sell financial
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services.
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>> Brian is selling soybeans. Brian Sykes,
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the CEO of Cargle. You know, Cargle is
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the world's largest private company
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based in Minneapolis and he is going to
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come away selling a lot of soybeans. So,
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we have a you go through the list of the
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CEOs. Each one is our best salesperson
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in this category and they're going to
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come back with orders and it's going to
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be amazing. And by the way, I think you
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said it very well. you know, this idea
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of business is this kind of greatest
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platform for change. Um, they are
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working together like never before.
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Don't forget, this isn't Trump's and
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she's first meeting. These guys really
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like each other. They are very connected
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together. You can see they're smiling
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with each other. They're very they have
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a sales orientation. So, I expect a lot
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of order books to come back.
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>> I have a question for you. Are you
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allowed to sell software in China? We uh
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well with the right the Chinese have a
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lot of data residency laws. So uh you
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know we we do it is we don't have any
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offices or employees in China. We never
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have. The only time we end up with any
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residue in China is when we buy a
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company and they have a presence over
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there and then we have to devest from
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it. We have an exclusive partnership
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with Alibaba. Everything just goes
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through them and we we don't do anything
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in China.
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>> Is it significant growing? Is it what
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percentage of your revenue is it?
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>> Yeah, it's it's great. You know, we have
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it's a great partnership. Key customers
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of Salesforce like Louis Vuitton, you
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know, or Laura Piana, I know Chimoth
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loves Laura Piana.
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>> Yeah.
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>> And you know, Laura Piana sells a lot of
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sweaters in China and then, you know, in
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all other stores all over the world,
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they use Salesforce, but in China, it's
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Salesforce on Alibaba.
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>> It's still your code, but then it
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resides in their servers for data
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residency stuff. their data residency,
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their their partnership. It's a totally
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unique relationship. It's the only place
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in the world that we do such a thing.
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>> Yeah. And it has to be all the data has
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to be kept in China. All the data has to
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be accessible by the CCP.
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>> That's why it's so extraordinary. By the
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way, what Elon has, you know, Elon has
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Tesla in China, no partnership. He's the
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only one. He has a phenomenal
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relationship with Shei. When you look at
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she and um Elon together, notice how
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differential and respectful they are of
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each other. And here is these AI cars
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with all these cameras, Americanmade,
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you know, um Chinese factories driving
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around China. That is pretty incredible.
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>> How do you think he pulled that off? Is
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that just a one-off exception?
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>> I think Elon's the greatest salesman in
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the world. That's how
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>> I mean the cynical take on a chim would
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be they wanted him there and they wanted
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to study the company and the innovation
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and they have now become the biggest
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competitor uh with their EVs and so it
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is a pretty coopetition I guess it would
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be the cynical way to do
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>> I want one of those new BYD golf you
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know uh uh what do you call those with
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the doors that flip flip up
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>> Gwing
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>> Gwing I want one of those Gwing BYDs
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they have some cool cars have you seen
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those.
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>> They're cool, but they're not safe.
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>> They're incredible.
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>> They're talking in this in this they
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they said they're talking about bringing
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some of those cars to the US. That would
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be incredible.
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>> Uh would hollow out the entire
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automotive industry here if we had
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$20,000, $30,000 cars from China. It
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would be the end of the US automotive
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industry overnight. And uh Tim Cook's
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there. He has to store all his data
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there. That's been a pretty
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controversial issue for him because
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Freedberg, if anybody has private
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information or is a dissident, Tim Cook
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has to give that data over to the
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Chinese Communist Party. How do you
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think this plays in America visav the
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midterms? Freedberg, Americans feel
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ignored, inflation over 3% and they look
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at the Iran war as a betrayal by
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President Trump and they look at China
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as not material to their well-being. So
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when you look at Trump being on a
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six-month timeline for the midterms and
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he's only got two more years in office
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after that, you got she who's working
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off of a hundredyear playbook. How does
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that dynamic play out with Trump and the
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midterms and his core constituency,
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MAGA, which is now evolving into America
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first, America only? And this kind of is
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is rubbing that group of people the
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wrong way.
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>> I think the second and third order
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effects of anything that comes out of
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China is what's going to be most
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consequential to the average voter,
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which is job security and income
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security and income growth. And then
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cost of living impact. The cost of
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living impact would be if there can be
00:14:00
some deflationary effect from a trade
00:14:01
deal that makes access to goods lower
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price for Americans. And then anything
00:14:06
that America is exporting, there's
00:14:08
increased demand. Like there's a
00:14:09
follow-on effect to the soybean export
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market.
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There's a follow-on effect obviously to
00:14:15
the oil export market. There's a
00:14:18
follow-on effect to for example
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technology and software being exported.
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So that increases economic productivity
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in the US and increases job security
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income. And then the other side of the
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trade deal is can we get stuff that
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Americans really care about and make it
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cheaper. Can people now buy stuff at the
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store that drops in price by 30 40%
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where we've kind of tariffed and reduce
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trade that increases the price of
00:14:42
things. So if those deals kind of get
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worked out, people will see things get
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cheaper at the store and they'll feel
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good about kind of their income
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security. And I think that could be
00:14:50
positive. I think that's what's
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ultimately going to make people make the
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blue red decision when they go to the
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polls in November.
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>> That's the schizophrenic nature of this
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chimoth. We have Americans who very much
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want cheap goods from China and then we
00:15:04
have last year all these tariffs being
00:15:06
put on and we have this great
00:15:07
decoupling. So, how do you handicap the
00:15:11
midterms, Trump's timeline and she's
00:15:14
timeline and what their goals are and
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then I guess we'll get to Taiwan after
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that.
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>> I don't know. No, it's I think it's a
00:15:21
little bit above my pay grade. But what
00:15:22
I will say is that the midterms I think
00:15:25
are probably going to swing more based
00:15:27
on these recent jerrymandering rulings
00:15:29
from the Supreme Court and what happened
00:15:31
in the Virginia Supreme Court and what's
00:15:34
going to happen in the state
00:15:35
legislatures of these red states and
00:15:38
some of these blue states more than
00:15:41
what's going to come out of this summit
00:15:44
with with President Xi. So let me just
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put that over here. And I think that
00:15:48
money is getting organized. There was an
00:15:50
article in the New York Times this week
00:15:52
which really surprised me, but the
00:15:54
largest donor in the in this election
00:15:56
cycle is Andre and Horowitz.
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>> Yeah. What is that about? Yeah.
00:16:00
>> I think it's because they're they're
00:16:01
trying to establish themselves as part
00:16:03
of the financial firmament of America,
00:16:05
which I think strategically as a
00:16:07
business makes a lot of sense. Like
00:16:08
they're in the AUM business, right? So
00:16:11
they can't stop at 100 billion of AUM.
00:16:13
They're marching towards a trillion.
00:16:16
they're going to be the next Blackstone,
00:16:17
which I think is an incredible feat and
00:16:21
they're building a juggernaut of a
00:16:22
business. But I think they also realize
00:16:25
that politics is now a permanent part of
00:16:27
that if they're going to be investing in
00:16:30
higher quantum more geopolitically
00:16:33
influenced parts of the capital cycle
00:16:34
and parts of the economy. So I think the
00:16:37
midterms are largely that the money
00:16:39
that's going to be raised plus the
00:16:42
gerrymandering that will get done and
00:16:44
undone over the next few months. Again I
00:16:46
think I think the the Chinese and the
00:16:48
and the Americans have a very strong
00:16:50
incentive to kind of divide up the
00:16:52
world. Like I think the future at this
00:16:54
point you have these critical resource
00:16:56
inputs. China has a strangle hold. You
00:16:58
have energy and
00:17:01
intelligence AI where America has a
00:17:05
strangle hold on one and an effective
00:17:07
strangle hold on the other which is
00:17:08
energy and I think there's a trade there
00:17:11
to be done and as long as you can
00:17:13
negotiate what a reasonable give and
00:17:16
take is I think they're just going to
00:17:18
find common ground like does China
00:17:20
really need to be in Chile and Venezuela
00:17:23
and Panama? Probably not. Does America
00:17:25
have to have an incredibly strong point
00:17:27
of view about the straight of Malaa?
00:17:30
Probably not. And so there's probably a
00:17:32
trade to be done so that we can get
00:17:34
their rare earths, they can get some
00:17:36
more oil, everybody can be happy, and we
00:17:38
can all find abundance.
00:17:40
>> Yeah. The the key issue here is China is
00:17:42
and most people are, you know,
00:17:44
chinophobic, but China has serious
00:17:47
systematic issues with population, with
00:17:50
their real estate, with their GDP. All
00:17:52
of this is in decline.
00:17:54
And I think she most of all is concerned
00:17:58
about another Tianaan Square if he
00:18:00
doesn't get more people working. They've
00:18:02
had the largest growth of any middle
00:18:04
class
00:18:06
you know in history. They have the
00:18:07
largest middle class in the world. I
00:18:08
think uh you were sort of referencing
00:18:10
that Mark with luxury goods and luxury
00:18:12
goods providers are going there but it's
00:18:15
tenuous uh
00:18:16
>> and that's the number one by the way
00:18:18
that is the number one point of focus of
00:18:20
President Xi. President Xi's focus has
00:18:24
been getting 500 million people from
00:18:26
poverty into the middle class.
00:18:28
>> It's not exactly how we think about the
00:18:30
world in the United States. That's the
00:18:33
main focus of the political leader and
00:18:34
and he's achieved that. That that has
00:18:37
been an incredible accomplishment
00:18:38
>> and and but it's at risk right now
00:18:40
because their GDP is falling. They need
00:18:42
their factories to operate. They're
00:18:44
being undercut by other regions. And
00:18:46
then of course Taiwan is what they want
00:18:49
uh most of all and supremacy in you know
00:18:52
their part of the world.
00:18:53
>> I'm not convinced of that actually.
00:18:55
>> I think what they want Oh, I mean I
00:18:57
think we just kind of said it and to
00:18:59
summarize they they want to have you
00:19:02
know economic success. They want to
00:19:04
continue to grow their middle class.
00:19:06
They want to continue to have a healthy
00:19:07
economy. They want more trade. I thought
00:19:10
it was interesting that they're talking
00:19:12
about Trump is talking about not only
00:19:13
having the board of peace now he wants a
00:19:15
board of trade. That was a discussion
00:19:17
we've never heard before today. Then uh
00:19:20
we have she saying I want the wider
00:19:22
door. Then we have all these folks there
00:19:25
are selling their products. Two people
00:19:26
we didn't mention the co Visa and the
00:19:29
CEO of Mastercard are on the trip. Now
00:19:31
why is that? Because if you look at you
00:19:34
know commerce in China it is dominated
00:19:37
by companies like Alibaba and and these
00:19:39
organization who use these super apps.
00:19:41
It's not really all the way open for a
00:19:44
Visa and a Mastercard. That would be
00:19:46
incredible for those executives. So in
00:19:48
the same way that we want to sell
00:19:50
airplanes, we want to sell chips,
00:19:52
Nvidia, the Qualcomm coristiano is also
00:19:54
there, we want to sell soybeans, we want
00:19:57
to sell payment services, we want to
00:19:58
sell everything. The more economic
00:20:01
collaboration and cooperation you can
00:20:02
get between the two countries, the more
00:20:04
peace you're going to have. I think 100%
00:20:08
I agree.
00:20:09
>> Three, three hard questions, Mark. Uh,
00:20:10
should we be selling them the latest
00:20:12
chips? Yes or no? In your mind,
00:20:16
>> I think it's irrelevant at this point. I
00:20:17
think that the Chinese models are as
00:20:19
competitive as these US models and
00:20:22
they've learned to make these models
00:20:23
without having the highest end chips. I
00:20:26
think the highest end chips is kind of
00:20:27
more of a ego gratification for us. We
00:20:30
have Blackwell, we have this, we have
00:20:31
that. But when you look at their models,
00:20:34
their models are excellent. They fast
00:20:36
follow us. You know, the best models we
00:20:38
had ago, they have now.
00:20:40
>> Should they should we just sell it to
00:20:42
them since they're figuring it out
00:20:43
anyway, Mark?
00:20:45
>> We probably should just sell whatever we
00:20:46
can at this point. Got it.
00:20:48
>> And uh I think that as I said, I think
00:20:51
the more economic cooperation and
00:20:53
collaboration is better. And if you want
00:20:54
peace, I think that this
00:20:57
>> I think Taiwan, it's kind of a circle
00:21:00
back to that. Yeah.
00:21:01
>> Freeberg, uh, your take on chips. Should
00:21:04
we sell them latest chips? And then
00:21:05
Chimat, I want to get the answer to that
00:21:07
question from each of you.
00:21:08
>> I think it's inevitable that they get
00:21:09
there. I, by the way, I do think this is
00:21:11
one of the key aspects of this deal.
00:21:13
I've said this before, but maybe Taiwan
00:21:16
becomes less relevant to the US and to
00:21:18
China as both China and the US um,
00:21:20
mainland FAB. So, as we build out our
00:21:23
own
00:21:24
>> manufacturing capacity here in the US,
00:21:26
and I know we've struggled and there are
00:21:28
fits and starts and issues with it and
00:21:29
whatnot, but the the TSMC facility in
00:21:32
Arizona is running, they're printing,
00:21:35
and if it works and they figure out how
00:21:37
to scale it. There'll be other
00:21:38
facilities in the US and then China's
00:21:40
mainlanding with Huawei standing up a
00:21:42
lot of facilities. They've got a multi-
00:21:44
I think I talked about this on one of
00:21:45
the shows, a multi-deion
00:21:47
government investment in ensuring
00:21:49
competitiveness not just with fabs but
00:21:52
also with semiconductor manufacturing
00:21:54
equipment so that they don't get cut off
00:21:56
on the supply chain with companies like
00:21:57
ASML blocking sales into mainland. So as
00:22:01
they build out their own semiconductor
00:22:03
capital equipment systems and their own
00:22:06
fabs, does Taiwan really matter? Is
00:22:08
there really that much of a security
00:22:10
risk to the United States and to China
00:22:12
in that sense? And perhaps what
00:22:13
everyone's focused on, which is this
00:22:15
pivot point around Taiwan. Maybe it's
00:22:17
not that the US is selling Taiwan down
00:22:19
the river, but it's just that no one
00:22:21
gives a [ __ ] anymore. So, you know,
00:22:23
there may be this kind of cultural
00:22:24
moment for China where they want to at
00:22:26
some point say, "Hey, by 2040," which I
00:22:28
think is what I've heard, they want to
00:22:29
be able to kind of, you know, bring
00:22:31
Taiwan fully into the sphere. maybe the
00:22:34
US shouldn't care that much at that
00:22:36
point from a economic and security
00:22:38
perspective. So I think that's that's
00:22:40
one of the things that's happening that
00:22:41
>> so you're in the camp of sell the chips
00:22:43
to them and it will demotivate the TSMC
00:22:49
or the capture of those fast.
00:22:51
>> Put it this way. I think the more the
00:22:53
global productivity index can climb, the
00:22:57
better off all humans will be. So the
00:23:00
question is, do you really want the west
00:23:02
to see their productivity index climb
00:23:04
and then you're effectively forcing
00:23:06
conflict and forcing issues with the
00:23:08
east? Or if we all grow our productivity
00:23:11
index, we all make more stuff, everyone
00:23:13
benefits, everyone has better jobs,
00:23:15
everyone makes more money, everyone has
00:23:16
access to more stuff, the cost of goods
00:23:18
comes down for everyone, doesn't that
00:23:20
make the world a safer and more secure
00:23:21
place?
00:23:22
>> Sure. So I think this idea that like
00:23:23
technology should be held to one uh side
00:23:27
of the world and not given to the other
00:23:28
side of the world is inevitably going to
00:23:30
lead to conflict or increase the
00:23:32
probability of conflict. Whereas if you
00:23:34
let technology diffuse and proliferate,
00:23:37
everyone benefits and conflict indices
00:23:39
go down.
00:23:39
>> It's commoditized, you know, and
00:23:42
everybody has access to it. So then it
00:23:44
it becomes
00:23:44
>> you give everyone a higher standard of
00:23:46
living and you give everyone's economy a
00:23:48
boost and you give everyone less reason
00:23:49
to fight with each other. Since you went
00:23:50
there with Taiwan, should we take our
00:23:53
arm sales off of the table, Freedberg?
00:23:56
And should we ask China to not sell arms
00:23:58
to Iran?
00:24:01
>> Yes, we should ask China to not sell
00:24:02
arms to Iran.
00:24:04
>> Yeah.
00:24:04
>> Okay.
00:24:05
>> I don't know what there is. What is
00:24:06
there to talk about there? Because I
00:24:08
think what she wants is for us to not
00:24:10
sell arms to Taiwan. So, would you make
00:24:14
that trade, I guess, is what I'm saying.
00:24:15
>> Oh, yeah. I mean, that's a good
00:24:17
question. And I think in that context
00:24:19
that's that's a nuance one. I don't
00:24:20
>> that's why I bring it up because that
00:24:22
seems to be
00:24:23
>> generally you're right. Yeah. I mean
00:24:24
generally that's probably a a trade that
00:24:28
you know that should be kind of trade do
00:24:30
the deal.
00:24:30
>> So you say make the trade
00:24:32
>> chimath. I mean I kind of know
00:24:34
>> we're 18 months from Taiwan not being an
00:24:38
important moment of conversation the way
00:24:41
it is today. Why 18 months? because we
00:24:43
are at a point where we're probably 1
00:24:45
to2 nanometers away from being able to
00:24:48
do what we need Taiwan to strategically
00:24:51
do for us. And so as we scale up our
00:24:54
chip fabs, as we get more capacity and
00:24:57
interestingly there are these orthogonal
00:24:59
technologies being developed. I don't
00:25:01
know if you guys saw but neuralink was
00:25:03
showcasing now a machine that is
00:25:06
literally operating at the
00:25:09
almost nanometer scale to do the brain
00:25:11
operations for the implantation all
00:25:13
automatically. So when when you when you
00:25:15
have the dexterity and the capability
00:25:17
mechanically to make these things, the
00:25:19
real reason then is a very different one
00:25:21
than what it is today. Today it's
00:25:22
economic and if you take that off the
00:25:24
table, I think we'll have a very
00:25:25
different attitude to Taiwan. That's
00:25:26
number one. Number two, sell the chips.
00:25:28
>> And the reason we should sell the chips
00:25:30
is we want Nvidia to win. We do not want
00:25:32
to give enough oxygen for Huawei to then
00:25:35
all of a sudden emerge and have a
00:25:37
version of a chip that works. And what
00:25:38
Mark said is totally right. These models
00:25:41
are catching up. They're almost at the
00:25:43
same pace. So the more important thing,
00:25:45
Jason, is probably we should all agree
00:25:47
is just like let's have a reasonable KYC
00:25:50
for how the models get used so that you
00:25:52
know somebody in a basement doesn't cook
00:25:54
up some boweapon. Meanwhile, sell the
00:25:57
chips. Proliferate. Let Jensen win. I'd
00:26:00
rather he win than Huawei win.
00:26:01
>> Mark, I'm going to give you the last
00:26:02
word, but I'm going to force you to
00:26:03
answer a hard question. China sets up a
00:26:06
blockade around Taiwan and they decide
00:26:08
they're taking it. Should the US defend
00:26:09
it? Yes or no? I I've said this for
00:26:12
years. I I don't agree with Neil
00:26:13
Ferguson on that point. I think that
00:26:15
this is a nonsense issue. I think China
00:26:17
and Taiwan will reconcile. I think that
00:26:20
uh Well, first of all, I do want to
00:26:22
schedule though Chimath for that neural
00:26:24
link. Um next Tuesday 5:00 we can drill
00:26:27
your brain. Chimoth, can I get you in?
00:26:30
>> What are you trying to do? Put some
00:26:31
empathy into Chimoth. I talked to Elon.
00:26:33
He said it doesn't. You just drill right
00:26:35
in. There's a and boom. And then well,
00:26:38
you can get hooked up. It is the
00:26:40
craziest thing.
00:26:41
>> I know. I got you scheduled at 5:00 on
00:26:44
Tuesday tomorrow. Hold your hand if
00:26:46
you're too nervous.
00:26:47
>> And by the way,
00:26:50
finally had a hard literally like
00:26:56
for a even better show.
00:26:57
>> Abs. It would be incredible. Yes. And uh
00:27:02
I would laugh and I would giggle. We
00:27:05
could get into show tunes here. Free
00:27:07
break. I know you're um Yeah. not big on
00:27:09
on the show too.
00:27:10
>> If I only had a heart.
00:27:11
>> If I only had a brain.
00:27:13
>> A heart. A brain. And what's the third
00:27:15
one?
00:27:16
>> If I only had a neural link.
00:27:19
>> You got to give you courage. REEDBERG.
00:27:25
>> OKAY, move on.
00:27:26
>> All right, let's move on here.
00:27:27
>> Your [ __ ] By the way, I took kids.
00:27:30
>> Tim stayed home. I took his kids to the
00:27:32
Wizard of Oz at the sphere. It was
00:27:34
incredible. If you haven't seen it,
00:27:37
>> yeah. do something enriching with my
00:27:40
kids or hit the crafts table.
00:27:43
>> No, I I'll be honest with you. I get a
00:27:45
little freaked out in large
00:27:50
>> like groups of people.
00:27:51
>> Yeah, I get I get a No, just just like
00:27:53
when there's a lot of people, I get very
00:27:54
nervous.
00:27:56
>> Really?
00:27:56
>> Is this because of your newfound
00:27:58
celebrity? Is this is that the issue or
00:28:00
just always like No, I don't even want
00:28:01
to go there. I just have these bad
00:28:03
thoughts of like, oh my god, what if
00:28:04
something happens? How do we get out and
00:28:06
like
00:28:06
>> terrorist attack?
00:28:08
panic disorder. I don't know. Yeah,
00:28:10
exactly. You have panic disorder.
00:28:12
>> Panic disorder.
00:28:12
>> I don't I don't like these large spaces
00:28:14
with lots of people. I get a little
00:28:15
winded up.
00:28:16
>> Anyway, your kids had a great time.
00:28:18
Great show.
00:28:19
>> Tony Robbins lives very near you,
00:28:20
Shimoth. Don't you think we can get that
00:28:22
to happen?
00:28:22
>> Yeah. Let's get Tony Robbins in there to
00:28:24
clear that blockage. You're a Tony
00:28:26
Robbins guy, Mark. Why are you so into
00:28:27
Tony Robbins?
00:28:28
>> I love Tony Robbins. I had him at my
00:28:30
conference this week. It was incredible.
00:28:31
Actually, he did an incredible
00:28:33
presentation.
00:28:33
>> Did he unlock for you your success? He
00:28:36
claims to that he has you on the roster
00:28:38
of $50,000 a year CEOs?
00:28:40
>> I am the number one fan of Tony Robbins.
00:28:42
So I mean
00:28:44
>> what percentage of your success is
00:28:45
attributed to Tony's mentorship?
00:28:47
>> Hey, if it wasn't for Tony Robbins, I
00:28:49
don't think there would be a sales
00:28:50
force. So there you go.
00:28:51
>> Can you actually no jokes aside, can you
00:28:53
tell us like what like what like what
00:28:56
were those big kind of blockages and how
00:28:58
did you how did he help you or how did
00:28:59
you work through it?
00:29:00
>> Just focusing on hey the questions you
00:29:02
know the quality of your questions is
00:29:04
the quality of your life. It's that
00:29:05
insight and just are you asking yourself
00:29:07
the right questions. What do you want?
00:29:08
What's important to you? How are you
00:29:10
getting it? What is preventing you from
00:29:12
having it? How will you know that you
00:29:14
have it? Just no one had ever said that
00:29:16
to me. And then it was just like clear
00:29:17
to me, wait, I need to write that down.
00:29:19
Like what do I really want right now?
00:29:21
What is my point of focus?
00:29:23
>> And that is what gave me motivation as
00:29:26
soon as I got that clarity. I mean, a
00:29:28
lot of us do it automatically, but
00:29:29
that's not where I was when I was a kid.
00:29:31
That's for sure.
00:29:32
>> Did you run across the coals? Did you do
00:29:34
any of that kind of stuff?
00:29:35
>> Oh, I've many times.
00:29:36
>> Really?
00:29:37
>> Yeah, of course.
00:29:38
>> Okay, there it is, folks.
00:29:39
>> Hey, we can go together.
00:29:41
>> Uh, absolutely. We had Tony on the show.
00:29:43
I tried to get in there and understand
00:29:45
his psychology, but he just had us do
00:29:47
breathing exercises. All right. The uh
00:29:50
All-In Summit is happening again. Fifth
00:29:53
year in a row. Wow. We've been doing
00:29:54
this for a while. Allin.com/events
00:29:57
September 13th, 14th, and 15th. We'll
00:30:00
have you back, Mark, in year six. But
00:30:03
when you score so highly on a keynote,
00:30:05
we give you two years off so that we can
00:30:07
build up the anticipation. So coming in
00:30:09
2027, our guy Mark Benning off. But for
00:30:12
this year, uh, allin.com/events.
00:30:15
Okay. Topic two, AI's impact.
00:30:16
>> By the way, real quick, can can I just
00:30:18
do a quick PSA?
00:30:19
>> A public service announcement coming.
00:30:21
>> Public service announcement.
00:30:22
>> Yes.
00:30:23
>> Nick, just pull up this link. This dog
00:30:25
named Scooter needs a home.
00:30:27
>> Okay.
00:30:27
>> Promise my wife I do this. Don't get
00:30:29
Don't get mad at me. This dog named
00:30:31
Scooter needs a home. He's in Baldwin
00:30:32
Park. Dog's about to die. Lives in
00:30:35
Baldwin Park at the Animal Care and
00:30:36
Control. They're overwhelmed in LA.
00:30:38
There are so many homeless street dogs
00:30:40
that are being collected. They're all
00:30:41
being put to sleep.
00:30:42
>> Wow.
00:30:42
>> Someone give this dog a home.
00:30:43
>> Gorgeous dog.
00:30:44
>> Scooter.
00:30:45
>> Good dog.
00:30:45
>> Link. Link will be on the YouTube
00:30:47
channel. Thank you very much.
00:30:48
>> Are you getting a little emotional,
00:30:49
Freeberg, about this dog being put down?
00:30:52
>> I just don't like these, you know, all
00:30:53
these street dogs. like they they didn't
00:30:55
choose that situation they were in and
00:30:57
then they all end up kind of getting
00:30:58
pulled in by animal care and control and
00:31:00
then they all get put to sleep. Kind of
00:31:02
sucks. You're a dog guy. Come on. You
00:31:04
got to have a heart.
00:31:05
>> No, I have a big heart. Chimath, it's
00:31:06
$10,000 to keep these dogs alive for
00:31:08
another week. Can we count on you for
00:31:10
that donation?
00:31:12
>> Any purebred white golden retrievers in
00:31:14
that bunch?
00:31:15
>> No, they're just muts. Just muts.
00:31:17
>> We have a cat that we got at the shelter
00:31:19
actually.
00:31:20
>> Kind of a story. walked into the shelter
00:31:23
looking for a cat. All of a sudden,
00:31:24
we're in the shelter. This cat's like
00:31:26
coming at, you know, my kids and all of
00:31:27
a sudden they're, "Okay, we'll take this
00:31:29
cat." What is this cat's name?
00:31:31
>> This cat's name is Cloud.
00:31:34
>> Cloud.
00:31:34
>> That's our cat.
00:31:35
>> Wow.
00:31:36
>> Absolutely.
00:31:37
>> Yeah. We have Cloud the cat.
00:31:40
>> All right. I like it. That's awesome.
00:31:41
>> All right. AI's impact on software
00:31:43
rippling through the market. Mark,
00:31:45
you're on the front lines here.
00:31:46
>> Thank you for reminding me.
00:31:48
>> Yeah. Well, I mean in pain and suffering
00:31:50
are lessons, right? I think the Buddha
00:31:52
and Tony Robbins both taught us that and
00:31:54
the only way to the other side is
00:31:56
through as you know, Mark. So,
00:31:58
Salesforce down a whopping 37% 90
00:32:01
billion in losses for you. service now
00:32:03
42% workday 45%
00:32:06
180 billion in market cap's been lost
00:32:08
and the assumption mark is that AI is
00:32:13
going to make it unnecessary for you to
00:32:15
use Slack or Salesforce or HubSpot
00:32:17
whatever it happens to be that you'll
00:32:18
just ask your AI to solve this for you
00:32:21
and we'll all look at a piece of glass
00:32:24
and have no actual software the AI will
00:32:27
just tell us what to do what's your
00:32:29
response to the fear the criticism and
00:32:32
how are you managing this massive change
00:32:34
internally?
00:32:35
>> You're right. It's the SAS apocalypse.
00:32:37
Um, I mean, it's not my first SAS
00:32:39
apocalypse, honestly, but it's the
00:32:40
current SAS apocalypse. So, we are all
00:32:42
now drinking at Salesforce Esprillas.
00:32:45
And, uh, we actually have a pet
00:32:47
Sasquatch as well. Yeah, we're all a
00:32:50
little more sassy. That's what I would
00:32:51
say. That's number one.
00:32:53
>> You bring the sass to sass.
00:32:55
>> We got to bring sass to sassy, you know.
00:32:57
And then,
00:32:57
>> well, you've always been a sassy guy.
00:32:59
>> Yeah. And then number two is look the
00:33:02
market is rerated. It's not a mystery.
00:33:04
Everybody knows you know you guys have
00:33:05
been talking about it for a while. I've
00:33:07
been living it. So the market software
00:33:09
market's rerated. It happens every now
00:33:11
and then. There are cycles. You know
00:33:12
I've been doing Salesforce for 27 years
00:33:15
enterprise software for 40 and the
00:33:18
market's rerated. So you mentioned
00:33:20
HubSpot. They're trading at two times
00:33:22
sales. I've never seen that before. They
00:33:25
just had a great quarter. We saw a lot
00:33:27
of great quarters. I looked at the top
00:33:28
10 major enterprise software companies.
00:33:30
They all had great quarters and they're
00:33:33
all trading in two time sales. So why?
00:33:36
Because of everything you just said.
00:33:38
There's like, you know, a hypnosis
00:33:39
around AI and, you know, we haven't seen
00:33:42
it show up in the numbers yet. If it
00:33:44
shows up in the numbers, maybe people
00:33:46
will be right. Right now, all we know is
00:33:48
there's still a lot of enterprise
00:33:50
software being sold in the world.
00:33:51
>> So you've been through this. It's not
00:33:53
your first time.
00:33:55
>> This is not my first apocalypse. I mean,
00:33:57
I remember the cases apocalypse of 2020
00:34:00
when COVID happened and all of it, you
00:34:02
know, everything collapsed. There was
00:34:05
the great cases apocalypse in 2016.
00:34:08
What's that?
00:34:09
>> In all sincerity, what's your strategy
00:34:11
and how do you deal with,
00:34:12
>> you know, your internal team? Obviously,
00:34:14
they are compensated through, you know,
00:34:16
stock and this is headwind and you have
00:34:19
competition for employees from OpenAI,
00:34:21
Anthropic, and SpaceX. So, how do you
00:34:24
deal with uh rallying the troops and
00:34:27
then how do you develop a strategy?
00:34:29
>> Well, you're right. I mean, it's a lot
00:34:31
easier to be a private company right now
00:34:33
where you don't have to be rationalized
00:34:35
by the public markets. If you're in the
00:34:36
public markets and you get rerated,
00:34:38
that's the reality of being in the
00:34:40
public markets. And I think that for
00:34:42
what I tell my employees, what I just
00:34:44
told my employees is look, you can't get
00:34:46
drunk on the stock price. If you are
00:34:48
like focused on today all the time and
00:34:51
that is how you're getting, you know,
00:34:52
your emotional state, it it's not going
00:34:54
to work for you. You have to find a
00:34:56
different anchor. So I try not to pay
00:34:59
really a lot of attention to it. I'm
00:35:00
focused on my customer success. How is
00:35:03
our revenue? Look, we'll do over 46
00:35:05
billion this year, more than 16 billion
00:35:07
in cash flow. We have more than 83,000
00:35:09
employees. These are the things that I'm
00:35:11
focused on. What is the level of
00:35:13
customer success that we're delivering?
00:35:15
That's a really important I can't
00:35:17
control the stock price. There's nothing
00:35:19
I can do. And for our employees, they
00:35:22
can't control it either. That they need
00:35:24
to believe in the company and the
00:35:25
quality of the success they're
00:35:27
delivering to customers in the long
00:35:29
term. And then you look at the market,
00:35:31
you look at these other companies, not
00:35:32
just us. They're doing great. And I
00:35:35
mean, I saw some great numbers, but it
00:35:37
doesn't really matter. The market's
00:35:38
rerated.
00:35:40
>> Well, you've got all that free cash
00:35:41
flow. You've been great at acquisition.
00:35:43
So, I'm sure you're uh
00:35:44
>> I've bought some great companies, by the
00:35:46
way. Everything's a little cheaper. I
00:35:48
like that.
00:35:48
>> Yeah. Chimoth, what's your take on this?
00:35:50
You've been pretty critical of the SAS
00:35:53
space in previous episodes, pointing
00:35:56
out, hey, how durable are these
00:35:58
revenues? So, what's your take?
00:36:01
>> I think the low end of the market is
00:36:03
basically finished. I think there there
00:36:05
is no safe space. I think the high end
00:36:09
of the market where Mark operates, where
00:36:12
the large monoliths operate is quite
00:36:15
safe and the tell was this week.
00:36:18
The the deployment company deal
00:36:21
basically shows you what OpenAI is
00:36:24
running into. So, you know, you have to
00:36:27
put in $4 billion. You get all of these
00:36:29
folks. You gave them a 17.5% preferred
00:36:33
guaranteed return for what? essentially
00:36:37
to stand up a competitor to Ernston
00:36:38
Young, Anderson, Deote, PWC, Cognizant,
00:36:42
etc. If you just look at that, that
00:36:44
doesn't actually mathematically make
00:36:46
that much sense if you look at what
00:36:48
those companies are actually trading at.
00:36:51
But why is OpenAI doing this? I think
00:36:54
why is because at the high end of the
00:36:56
market where all the action is, what
00:36:59
people are finding is, hey, hold on a
00:37:01
second. This is a lot harder than we
00:37:02
thought. It's not like boop boop boop
00:37:04
put in a put in a prompt and beep boop
00:37:06
it all works. It's not how it works.
00:37:09
>> And so I think I think we're
00:37:12
>> I think we're a little oversold.
00:37:14
>> And I now I think this consolidation and
00:37:16
the rerating can happen in the opposite
00:37:18
direction. So what is the opposite
00:37:20
trade?
00:37:21
>> The opposite trade is who has
00:37:24
constructive net dollar retention, who
00:37:26
has negative churn that's been really
00:37:28
predictable, which is a way of saying
00:37:30
who has the best relationships. meaning
00:37:32
they're inside the CXOs and the seauite.
00:37:35
They have relationships with the CEOs
00:37:37
and they're trusted and they've been
00:37:39
around for 20 years. Those guys, I
00:37:42
think, are positioned to crush because
00:37:44
eventually, Jason, the next trade that
00:37:46
has to happen is when the public markets
00:37:48
become a little bit less breathless
00:37:50
about AI and they ask one simple
00:37:53
question. Okay, guys, you've spent $3
00:37:56
trillion in the last four years. What is
00:37:58
the ROI of these tokens?
00:38:01
And what's going to happen is they're
00:38:04
going to have to go to guys like Mark
00:38:05
and other people and say, "Please sell
00:38:08
my tokens." And that's the next shoe to
00:38:11
drop. If you if you had to ask me. So I
00:38:13
think you're going to see these revenues
00:38:15
which are like way out of whack like the
00:38:16
multiples on revenue, multiples on
00:38:18
assets, multiples of they're not even
00:38:19
multiples of those will come way back
00:38:22
down and I think these go back up and
00:38:25
you'll find a balance.
00:38:26
>> Yeah. And you've uh initiated what could
00:38:29
only be described as an unprecedented
00:38:31
massive stock buyback mark 50 billion.
00:38:34
>> I think it's the one of the largest in
00:38:36
history. Yeah, we we're you know we we
00:38:38
want to buy back as much as we can and I
00:38:43
would just say that you know look at a
00:38:46
high level look there's awesome new
00:38:49
capabilities like these coding agents
00:38:51
are awesome. Enthropic is awesome. like
00:38:53
I am going to probably use $300 million
00:38:56
of Enthropic this year at Salesforce
00:38:58
coding. Everything's going to be cheaper
00:39:00
to make. It's more efficient. I can do
00:39:03
things that I just could not do before.
00:39:04
I can go faster than ever before. I can
00:39:07
implement my software and sell it at the
00:39:09
same time. I've never been able to do
00:39:12
that before. I can break through
00:39:14
obstacles that I've had, you know, just
00:39:16
by focusing because I have coding agents
00:39:20
and humans together working together.
00:39:22
Today I have humans, agents and headless
00:39:25
platforms all interoperating never
00:39:27
before. So the opportunity for my own
00:39:31
company and the efficiency that I have
00:39:33
in my own company in service and support
00:39:35
in distribution in marketing across the
00:39:39
board is unprecedented. What I can do
00:39:41
for our customers unprecedented and you
00:39:44
know to that point my gosh have you seen
00:39:46
Anthropic? I mean it is a rocket ship
00:39:49
that will not stop because you can use
00:39:52
this product to do these incredible
00:39:54
amazing things and then complement it
00:39:56
with platforms like ours. It's you know
00:39:59
it's it's it's it's impossible to
00:40:01
describe what we're going to be able to
00:40:03
do for customers. It's going to be
00:40:04
awesome
00:40:04
>> and never waste a crisis. You've been
00:40:06
super focused on the efficiency of the
00:40:09
company, a headcount, share buybacks,
00:40:11
and I'm guessing you're looking at M&A.
00:40:15
So, it's not your finished up one of our
00:40:19
biggest deals ever, Informatica. I think
00:40:21
it was eight or nine billion dollars.
00:40:24
It's been in it's been awesome because
00:40:27
none of this stuff works if you don't
00:40:28
have context. You know, the AI is very
00:40:31
probabilistic. that is it can kind of
00:40:33
kind of figure things out but it needs
00:40:35
to be grounded in real data and it needs
00:40:37
to have that semantic layer. That means
00:40:39
it needs to be locked down into the
00:40:41
truth into a single source of truth or
00:40:43
it just cannot work well. And so our
00:40:46
customers want more harmonized data,
00:40:48
federated data, integrated data. So we
00:40:51
bought Informatica. Our customers want
00:40:53
our apps to use those large language
00:40:55
models to be able to provide not just
00:40:58
automation to their employees but also
00:41:00
to their agents just like we just said.
00:41:02
So like if you call 1800 no software
00:41:05
right now for the first time in 27 years
00:41:07
you talk to agent force hey agent force
00:41:10
what's happening but then after it
00:41:13
authenticates you and you get in the
00:41:14
system and it doesn't know who you are
00:41:16
then boom it'll autoes escalate you to a
00:41:19
human being who says oh I can see
00:41:21
everything you've been doing oh yeah you
00:41:23
just need to resolve this this and that
00:41:25
and so that trinity of the phone the web
00:41:28
and the human being are all together
00:41:30
it's all made possible buy this AI. We
00:41:33
just could never do that before. That is
00:41:35
awesome.
00:41:36
>> Was it controversial, Mark, to make
00:41:38
Slack headless? Was that a big decision
00:41:40
or was that a was everybody kind of
00:41:42
mostly on board with that?
00:41:43
>> Well, we were the first to, you know,
00:41:45
the way that our platform is architected
00:41:47
and Chimoth, you know it so well cuz
00:41:48
you're coding your coding agents and the
00:41:51
company you're building can run right on
00:41:52
top of it and build awesome stuff also.
00:41:55
So, you know, number one is we were the
00:41:58
first with an XML API, a SOAP API, a
00:42:01
REST API, now a CLA API, MCP API. We
00:42:06
always wanted to have a platform that
00:42:08
had every API possible. And our apps are
00:42:10
not hardcoded where we had to cut the
00:42:13
top off of them. They've always be
00:42:14
embedded inside our platform. So now we
00:42:17
can stream our apps out through a new
00:42:19
API called AXL and I can manifest it
00:42:22
into any large language model or device
00:42:24
or anything and it just works better
00:42:28
actually.
00:42:29
>> I think that you know when Jack Dorsey
00:42:32
wrote that memo Jal and part of what he
00:42:34
said is
00:42:35
>> he he's going to try to run his company
00:42:37
by building a world model. Yes. My
00:42:39
initial thought was, well, where is the
00:42:41
context, Mark? What you said before,
00:42:42
where's the semantic understanding to
00:42:45
create a world model? And a lot of it
00:42:47
for a lot of companies is actually in
00:42:49
Slack.
00:42:49
>> It's in Slack and email. Yeah, those two
00:42:51
places.
00:42:52
>> I showed you that Slackbot, Jason. I
00:42:54
mean, the thing is all because you run
00:42:56
your company on Slack, all your DMs, all
00:42:59
your channels, we're reading that now
00:43:01
through the AI and we can tell you more
00:43:03
about your business than you know
00:43:05
>> because Slackbot is reading stuff that
00:43:08
>> you know, nobody knew what was happening
00:43:11
and like I'm using that myself, but I
00:43:13
can then connect it into other things.
00:43:15
So, I have the ability to go into
00:43:16
Salesforce and Google and everything.
00:43:18
And so, when I'm on Slackbot, I can ask
00:43:21
it any question about my company. What
00:43:23
are my top five deals? What am do what
00:43:26
are my employees upset about? What are
00:43:28
the top three things I need to focus on?
00:43:30
And then boom, I get the information
00:43:32
because it has the data.
00:43:34
>> I think you should really look at SL
00:43:36
making Slack more open and cheaper and
00:43:40
getting more of that context because
00:43:43
there are limitations in terms of
00:43:45
getting your data out based on like
00:43:47
which plan you're on. It's just too
00:43:49
convoluted. But once I upgraded to a
00:43:52
higher plan and you know it's whatever 6
00:43:54
12 18k for our small company I was able
00:43:57
to get more and more context to my
00:44:00
openclaw plexity computer and claude we
00:44:03
and we're testing all of those and today
00:44:06
I wrote literally before I got on the
00:44:08
show a new prompt that is every two
00:44:12
hours in our Slack tell me what
00:44:14
decisions are being made who's making
00:44:16
those decisions um and what you would
00:44:19
handicap those decisions. If you were my
00:44:21
chief of staff, if you were a CEO or if
00:44:22
you were a board member and I created
00:44:24
personas to now evaluate decision-
00:44:28
making going on just
00:44:29
>> I have to show you the new version of
00:44:31
Slack. You're going to love it, Jason.
00:44:32
And you know that open AI and
00:44:34
enthropping and every AI company is
00:44:36
standardized on Slack. Yes.
00:44:38
>> And by the way, and our core sales cloud
00:44:40
and service clouds as well.
00:44:42
>> So I got to show you what we're doing.
00:44:44
Yeah.
00:44:46
So fun.
00:44:47
>> What's your advice to let's say you were
00:44:49
running a software company that was like
00:44:51
before the AI wave and you're private,
00:44:53
right? There's a bunch of these
00:44:54
companies that were supposed to go
00:44:56
public, didn't go public. What should
00:44:58
they do? Like what do those boards do?
00:45:00
What
00:45:00
>> they here's some Kleenex for them for
00:45:02
all their tears
00:45:05
>> because they're I mean I talked to these
00:45:06
CEOs. They're crying. What my market
00:45:08
cap? I'm not getting paid for my work.
00:45:10
Guys, grow up. You know, that's what I
00:45:12
love about the public markets. They
00:45:14
rationalize everything all the time. So
00:45:16
>> great, be in the public markets. You
00:45:18
want to be in a private market. Your
00:45:20
valuation is fantasy land until
00:45:21
somebody's actually going to pay you. So
00:45:24
I just tell them, hey, you got to focus
00:45:27
on your revenue, focus on your
00:45:28
customers, focus on your cash flow,
00:45:30
focus on your profitability, focus on
00:45:32
your innovation. How are you going to
00:45:34
add value to your customers? That's
00:45:36
what's really truly important.
00:45:39
>> Freeberg, any thoughts from you? We're
00:45:40
doing a big Salesforce implementation at
00:45:42
O'Hollow and I I would say that one of
00:45:45
my observations over the last six months
00:45:47
because we've talked a lot about using
00:45:49
these generative tools is we've kind of
00:45:52
dropped all the vertical software but
00:45:55
we're doubling down our investment in
00:45:57
horizontal tools. So like we're
00:45:58
investing heavily in these platform
00:46:00
capabilities that then we're able to
00:46:03
build apps and workflows on top of them
00:46:05
that are specific to our business rather
00:46:07
than try and buy an offtheshelf app or
00:46:09
workflow tool. So I think that there's
00:46:11
kind of a really interesting moment
00:46:12
right now where we talked about this
00:46:14
last time you could kind of discern
00:46:15
between founder and non-founder
00:46:17
enterprise software. I also think that
00:46:18
there's this kind of vertical horizontal
00:46:20
shift where they're kind of trading the
00:46:23
same right now but you could probably
00:46:24
break them. You could break that trade.
00:46:26
So, I think there's probably a good
00:46:27
arbitrage there.
00:46:28
>> I think everyone who wants to sell those
00:46:30
potato seeds, you know, is going to need
00:46:34
>> some tools to sell them. But the thing
00:46:36
that's kind of cool is, you know, we
00:46:38
have 15,000 salespeople now. So, they're
00:46:40
out there selling these products like
00:46:42
Slack and selling to David and so forth.
00:46:45
But here's the thing that's interesting.
00:46:47
In the last 27 years, we calculated
00:46:50
somewhere between 20 to 30 million
00:46:52
people, we didn't call back. We did not
00:46:55
call them back
00:46:56
>> because we didn't have the people to do
00:46:58
it. So just this week I called back
00:47:01
50,000 people, you know, just through
00:47:04
agents so I can qualify. I just bought a
00:47:07
company called qualified so I can
00:47:09
qualify the agents, call people back the
00:47:11
BDR, the SDR function. I can go
00:47:14
outbound. I can do things I could never
00:47:15
do before. That is made possible by this
00:47:18
AI automation linking it then to the
00:47:21
apps. You can go to another level.
00:47:24
Yeah. Okay. Breaking news. I want to get
00:47:26
everybody's take on this. Open AAI in a
00:47:28
breaking news story is considering suing
00:47:31
Apple over their Chat GPT partnership.
00:47:33
As we all know, two years ago, Apple and
00:47:36
Open AAI announced Chat GPT would
00:47:38
integrate into Siri, iOS, MacOSS. But
00:47:41
according to Bloomberg, the deal has
00:47:43
gone so poorly for OpenAI that they
00:47:45
might sue Apple for breach of contract.
00:47:48
Here are OpenAI's gripes. Apple chat GPT
00:47:51
integration within Siri requires users
00:47:53
to specifically say chat GPT to get
00:47:56
results. We probably all experienced
00:47:57
this if we haven't given up on Siri,
00:47:59
which is the worst personal assistant
00:48:01
ever created. Uh Apple hasn't it's
00:48:03
discretionad to the highest level. Just
00:48:07
discretad with this product. How do you
00:48:09
get there first and you remain worst?
00:48:13
Apple hasn't promoted the integration at
00:48:15
all and users are still overwhelmingly
00:48:18
going to the standalone chat GPT app or
00:48:21
others. OpenAI
00:48:23
expected billions of subscription
00:48:25
revenue from the deal and it hasn't come
00:48:27
to fruition. According to Bloomberg,
00:48:30
Apple's side of the story is, hey, they
00:48:31
have concerns about Open AI's privacy
00:48:34
practices. Maybe they don't trust the
00:48:35
guy in charge over there, which was a
00:48:37
reoccurring theme in the lawsuit. And
00:48:40
they're annoyed that OpenAI, and here is
00:48:43
the palace entry, they're upset that
00:48:48
OpenAI is building hardware to compete
00:48:51
with Apple and that they recruited their
00:48:55
design guru, Johnny IV.
00:48:58
Mark Beni off, you know, the players.
00:49:01
What is going on here? Yeah,
00:49:04
>> you got to trust Sam Alman and Open AI.
00:49:07
I love him. But let's just upscale this
00:49:10
conversation just one second. Listen,
00:49:13
what has happened? What happened is we
00:49:15
have these LLMs. They starting to come
00:49:17
out come out. Every company's kind of
00:49:20
chosen a slightly different path. You
00:49:22
had Elon, he went out, he had Grock and
00:49:24
he kind of started building these
00:49:25
companions and sex bots and all this
00:49:28
kind of stuff going on. And that was a
00:49:29
huge focus of his, the sexbot focus.
00:49:32
Then you kind of had OpenAI and they
00:49:34
were doing the Sora video thing and
00:49:36
they're also doing ad networks and crazy
00:49:38
stuff like that. Then you had Gemini and
00:49:41
they had the Nano Banana and then
00:49:43
finally you've got Enthropic and they go
00:49:45
we don't know about those sex bots and
00:49:46
we don't know about Nano Banana but
00:49:48
we're going to do coding agents. And it
00:49:50
turned out Enthropic was right. And all
00:49:52
of a sudden the rocket ship took off and
00:49:54
now everybody's like, "Whoa, where did
00:49:56
Enthropic go?" Oh, whoa, they're way up
00:49:58
there. And then they're all like, "Where
00:50:00
are all they going to do coding agents
00:50:01
to?" And now they're all resetting and
00:50:04
kind of hitting their buttons and going,
00:50:05
"Coding agents. Everybody focus, focus.
00:50:07
Kill Sarah, kill this. Get rid of that.
00:50:11
Sex bots off." You know, cursor on.
00:50:14
Yeah. And that's where we are right now.
00:50:18
And so everybody, look, this is what's
00:50:20
cool about right now is that everybody,
00:50:22
it's such a dynamic moment in our
00:50:23
industry. It's so exciting that people
00:50:26
have to pivot and you have to be ready
00:50:28
to focus and refocus and constantly ask
00:50:31
the question like, "What do you want
00:50:32
right now?" And everyone is changing
00:50:35
what they really want. And if you looked
00:50:37
at where everybody was a year ago and
00:50:40
where they are now, they're in a totally
00:50:42
different place cuz we all know that
00:50:43
when Enthropic 46 hit, boom, everyone
00:50:47
could code in their companies. And
00:50:49
before that, they really couldn't. It
00:50:50
was a little bit of a productivity
00:50:52
improvement, but not as much as we
00:50:54
wanted. Now everybody sees this and
00:50:56
goes, "Wow, this is unbelievable." We're
00:50:59
even working on technology inside Slack
00:51:02
to make it easier for everybody to code.
00:51:04
So I think it's going to be really
00:51:07
>> breaking news. Breaking news there.
00:51:08
>> You're going to see some cool stuff with
00:51:10
Slack and Code. I'm not ready to talk
00:51:11
about it yet, but there's no question
00:51:14
that uh we are in a new moment in
00:51:16
coding. I mean Chamas got a whole
00:51:18
company around it. A lot of people have
00:51:19
companies around it. There's going to be
00:51:22
before coding was all about humans and
00:51:24
like that's where I started. I was 15
00:51:26
years old, Berlin game high school on
00:51:29
hands-on keyboard writing video games,
00:51:31
you know, basic 68,000 6502,
00:51:35
you know. No, no, now it's like
00:51:38
everyone.
00:51:38
>> How's that changed your org? Is it the
00:51:40
product manager, the developer, or the
00:51:42
UX designer?
00:51:45
>> The creator, or did it all blend into
00:51:46
one blended? And who wins? Who wins?
00:51:49
It's all blended together. And by the
00:51:51
way, to to Mark's point, the hands-on
00:51:53
keyboard thing, you know, most of our
00:51:55
engineers just speak. They So it's like
00:51:58
And so, you know, one of our guys just
00:52:00
has a foot button operated thing and it
00:52:02
just like
00:52:04
that,
00:52:04
>> too. Yeah. Whisper. That's all they do.
00:52:06
Flow plus.
00:52:08
>> It's all talking. Pedal plus whisper
00:52:10
flow and talking. There is no cans on
00:52:12
keyboard anymore.
00:52:13
>> All right. So, let's get back to this
00:52:14
story here.
00:52:14
>> We're going for dolphin flow at
00:52:16
Salesforce.
00:52:18
>> Dolphins on keyboards. Mahalo for you.
00:52:21
Aalo. Um, Freeberg, two questions. One,
00:52:25
now that Sam has shut down the sex
00:52:27
spots, how are you filling that void?
00:52:28
And then number two,
00:52:31
thank you, Jama.
00:52:33
And number two, what's your take on the
00:52:35
strained relationship here between
00:52:37
OpenAI and the world and specifically
00:52:40
the Apple world?
00:52:42
>> I don't know what to tell you. This that
00:52:43
there doesn't seem to be a lot of
00:52:44
long-term partnerships with Open AI.
00:52:47
That's a very uh generous way to say it.
00:52:52
What should Apple do? Should they just
00:52:54
go back to the loving arms of Google
00:52:56
where they made a hundred billion
00:52:59
dollars being partners with them on the
00:53:01
search default your alma
00:53:03
>> I don't know what to tell I mean look at
00:53:04
the end of the day I think Google has a
00:53:07
real opportunity to integrate a Gemini
00:53:09
assistant into all of your personal
00:53:10
information and Gemini and calendar
00:53:13
>> your Google drive your Google photos
00:53:15
where all of your personal information
00:53:16
sits it can become your your point of
00:53:19
calendaring your point of asking it
00:53:21
questions about your personal
00:53:23
Hey, when did I email this person, etc.
00:53:25
And in the enterprise context, I think
00:53:26
that's also up for grabs with G Suite.
00:53:30
And so, Google has a real chance to kind
00:53:32
of own that assistant interface. Maybe
00:53:34
Salesforce does too, Mark. Apple
00:53:36
obviously has an embedded install piece.
00:53:37
How many people are using Apple services
00:53:41
for doing all of their mail, for
00:53:43
calendaring,
00:53:45
for storing their information? I think a
00:53:47
good number.
00:53:49
>> Yeah. So that may end up becoming kind
00:53:51
of the way that the world silos out is
00:53:52
like you'll have an assistant, but the
00:53:55
assistant for it to be truly useful to
00:53:57
you individually, it has to have access
00:53:59
to all of your information. Whether it's
00:54:01
in an enterprise context or a personal
00:54:02
context, Apple is probably going to need
00:54:04
to either build their own or white label
00:54:06
with a partner, could be anthropic,
00:54:08
could be someone else
00:54:09
>> to get this to really work. But but
00:54:11
they're going to be up against a
00:54:12
formidable competitor is my point
00:54:13
because I think Google Assistant is
00:54:14
going to end up be being kind of a real
00:54:16
kick-ass product once they get this
00:54:18
flywheel going. Apple has the clearest
00:54:20
path to becoming, you know, a top two or
00:54:23
three player in AI simply by buying
00:54:26
something like Perplexity or Mistrol or
00:54:29
or or some AI lab and then using their
00:54:33
hardware footprint, which is
00:54:34
extraordinary. I just got this MacBook
00:54:36
with 48 gigs of RAM on it with an M5. It
00:54:39
is unbelievable. And the new ones with
00:54:41
the the Studio coming out are going to
00:54:43
have a terabyte of RAM. they are going
00:54:46
to have a clear path to maintaining your
00:54:48
privacy running local models and that's
00:54:51
going to solve people's problems. It's
00:54:53
going to be very easy to index all your
00:54:55
images without giving the data to OpenAI
00:54:58
which nobody trusts or giving it to
00:55:00
Gemini. And that's I think a big part of
00:55:03
why they picked the current CEO is
00:55:05
because he's an engineer and
00:55:07
hardwarebased. I I think the future of
00:55:08
this is going to be local models running
00:55:10
on extraordinary desktop hardware. And
00:55:13
if you have employees on this level of
00:55:16
hardware running these models local like
00:55:18
I have started to do, they become 10
00:55:20
times more valuable than the employees
00:55:22
not running it. I I think Apple's my
00:55:24
choice for the next year.
00:55:25
>> I'm not a huge believer in these local
00:55:27
models. And the the only reason why is I
00:55:29
think you want persistence. You have
00:55:31
multiple devices. You have multiple
00:55:33
persona. You're using a web browser in
00:55:35
one instance. You're using a different
00:55:36
computer at home in the other. And the
00:55:38
idea that you don't have persistence
00:55:40
that follows you around in 2026, I think
00:55:42
is a breaking feature. So, I think
00:55:45
you're not going to lug around a 5B
00:55:48
MacBook Pro everywhere you go so that
00:55:50
you can get knowledge. Oh, wait. You're
00:55:52
asking, "Oh, wait. I got a diagnosis
00:55:54
from my doctor. Hold on a second."
00:55:57
>> I don't think that's
00:55:59
the game on the field. The game on the
00:56:02
field though is
00:56:03
>> you will uh be able to use iCloud for
00:56:05
this as well. So, it's going to be, you
00:56:08
know, effortlessly.
00:56:10
>> So, well, look, give me your opinion on
00:56:11
this. I think the thing that you're
00:56:14
assuming is that these form factors
00:56:16
don't need to change. And I just wonder
00:56:19
like, don't we have an iPhone moment
00:56:20
that we're just all going to be
00:56:22
surprised by where somebody shows up and
00:56:24
they're like this thing and you're like,
00:56:26
"Oh my god, that's the thing." Do do you
00:56:28
know what I mean? like yeah that that's
00:56:31
I
00:56:32
>> there's enough ingredients here where
00:56:34
somebody's going to cook something up
00:56:35
and then you have to think about Jason
00:56:37
the sunk cost of like you know look
00:56:40
Apple is incredible
00:56:42
but there that's the product of 40 years
00:56:44
30 years of meticulous process
00:56:47
optimization
00:56:48
what do you do if the form factor is
00:56:50
totally different and the nature of the
00:56:51
device is different how do you pivot
00:56:53
that organization
00:56:55
>> you're hitting on something very
00:56:56
important and it dovetales with another
00:56:57
story on the docket mirror Mrage
00:56:59
released thinking machines new real time
00:57:04
world
00:57:04
>> that was impressive
00:57:05
>> and this is super impressive and Apple
00:57:07
at the same time has patented putting
00:57:10
cameras into your AirPods so you're
00:57:12
right and then I use this plug pin I've
00:57:14
talked about it before
00:57:15
>> these persistent hardware devices the
00:57:17
watch the earpieces are going to know
00:57:18
your entire reality they're going to
00:57:20
monitor your entire desktop and this is
00:57:22
going to lead to a a use of tokens that
00:57:26
would be a thousand times what user
00:57:28
business users are currently using
00:57:30
because the way mirror's and we should
00:57:32
have her on the pod or at one of our
00:57:33
events. The way her model works
00:57:35
Freedberg is it's watching your desktop.
00:57:38
It's listening to all the voices and
00:57:40
then it's watching your webcam all at
00:57:42
the same time and every 200 milliseconds
00:57:46
it's uploading it to two different
00:57:47
models. One is deep thinking and looking
00:57:50
backwards, you know, at a maybe a 30-
00:57:52
secondond clip and the other one's in
00:57:54
real time. that will 1,000x the need for
00:57:58
tokens if people are doing this for 8
00:58:00
hours a day cuz it's not the turnbased
00:58:03
here's my latest prompt here's my
00:58:05
question I got a response it's in real
00:58:08
time always querying an LLM which is
00:58:11
going to require a hardware upgrade to
00:58:13
the average desktop Mark Beni off what
00:58:16
are your thoughts on this brave new
00:58:17
world
00:58:18
>> it's one small step for man one giant
00:58:20
leap towards AGI I think that you said
00:58:25
really well. I mean the we are in the
00:58:27
we've been so kind of think that LLM is
00:58:29
the beall end all. We're going to go to
00:58:31
AGI. I don't really understand how large
00:58:34
language models which are only about
00:58:35
language and words and we know how it
00:58:37
works. It's one word one word therefore
00:58:39
the next word is this is going to get us
00:58:41
to where we want to go to which is
00:58:43
minority report or um
00:58:45
>> agreed
00:58:45
>> all the science fiction movies that
00:58:47
we've seen. But what we saw and and I
00:58:49
think Jason you'd really articulated
00:58:51
that super well by the way multiensory
00:58:54
models and multiensory models. Well,
00:58:56
here's a good one. Oh yeah, me. I'm a
00:58:59
multiensory model in a biological
00:59:01
computer. I'm a multiensory model. I've
00:59:03
got these eyes, ears, mouth, you know,
00:59:05
work. Sometimes some brain, heart,
00:59:07
whatever. And some other things going on
00:59:09
too that I don't even understand. And
00:59:11
it's all running in this biological
00:59:13
computer. I'm not exactly a large
00:59:15
language model, though I do have one.
00:59:17
sometimes. So I would say that
00:59:20
multi-ensory models are the next big
00:59:23
wave for AI and then but we're still not
00:59:26
at AGI at that point. But those demos
00:59:28
like the demo of that model that was
00:59:31
pretty everyone should see like that was
00:59:33
pretty awesome. And then I think we can
00:59:36
kind of say hm where are we now on this
00:59:39
on the path? But I think every model
00:59:42
company is kind of go hold on pivot you
00:59:45
know again pivot like saying pivot
00:59:47
everybody's pivoting and you're going to
00:59:49
have to pick your poison and where where
00:59:51
are you going next you know and you
00:59:54
can't do everything you can't
00:59:55
>> you said you were spending 300 million
00:59:57
on tokens with anthropic. Now imagine
01:00:00
what this would do to an average, you
01:00:03
know, employee if they needed a thousand
01:00:08
times the tokens they have now. So
01:00:09
instead of spending 150k in tokens, you
01:00:11
got to spend, you know, a hundred
01:00:13
million. But you have
01:00:15
>> I don't think that's true. I I don't
01:00:17
think that that I think we're getting
01:00:18
brainwashed on that.
01:00:19
>> Okay. So explain.
01:00:21
>> I think that's a mistake to think that
01:00:22
way. See, I think we are wasting a lot
01:00:24
of these tokens. So my coding here's my
01:00:26
I think I convince you this. So here's a
01:00:29
here we're using $300 million of
01:00:30
enthropic this year and we're coding
01:00:32
we're coding we're coding right the vast
01:00:35
majority of those tokens don't need to
01:00:36
go to enthropic there needs to be some
01:00:39
intermediary layer layer that's saying
01:00:41
oh oh that one has to go to enthropic
01:00:43
but these ones can handle by smaller
01:00:45
models
01:00:47
that can route it to the most affordable
01:00:49
for the job it's such an early moment
01:00:52
you know it's an early moment and you're
01:00:54
and I want to connect back to what you
01:00:55
said before which was brilliant Jason
01:00:57
which because the importance of the edge
01:00:59
because the edge and the cloud are going
01:01:02
to come together. Okay. And yes, you're
01:01:05
going to have more distributed
01:01:06
intelligence. It's going to work
01:01:08
together. That's going to makes a ton of
01:01:09
sense what you said. What Chama said was
01:01:12
also completely right. You were both
01:01:14
right. Then you combine it to this idea.
01:01:17
Let's put it together where we're going.
01:01:18
Yes, we're going to have more
01:01:19
distributed intelligence. We're going to
01:01:21
have intelligence on the edge. We're
01:01:22
going to have multiensory models. And
01:01:25
yes, you're going to do coding. And it's
01:01:26
going to be more efficient though. So to
01:01:28
think that it's going to be always so
01:01:30
expensive, that is just the moment of
01:01:33
time that we're at right now. And I
01:01:35
think there's going to be a hot new
01:01:36
company that's going to come along and
01:01:38
say this. I'm going to sit between you
01:01:41
and Anthropic and Open AAI and I'm going
01:01:44
to make sure that they you only need
01:01:46
their tokens when you actually need
01:01:49
them.
01:01:50
>> And that is not really where we are
01:01:51
right now.
01:01:53
>> Does that make sense what I'm saying?
01:01:54
Like you're like%
01:01:56
>> it's like oh I need a shower and Okay,
01:01:59
great. All the water. No, no, no. I just
01:02:01
need some water. I don't need all the
01:02:03
water.
01:02:04
>> Yeah.
01:02:04
>> Okay.
01:02:05
>> All right. Listen, we uh have two final
01:02:08
topics here. We could talk about
01:02:09
anthropic unrolling the dark SPVS and
01:02:12
the impact that has on the market. Or we
01:02:15
can go to everybody's favorite science
01:02:17
corner.
01:02:18
>> Well, do both. Just do a quick uh around
01:02:20
the around the neighborhood.
01:02:21
>> Yeah. Okay. Lightning round on uh we'll
01:02:23
do SPVS last. Freeberg, what do you got
01:02:26
in Science Corner? Everybody, all the
01:02:28
all the Freedberg fans are just
01:02:30
destroyed when we skip it. So, let's
01:02:31
give
01:02:32
>> a good one. Mark, do you like Science
01:02:33
Corner? No, you do.
01:02:35
>> I do.
01:02:35
>> Come on. Yeah.
01:02:36
>> Only the oceans.
01:02:38
>> Mark is the greatest salesman in Silicon
01:02:40
Valley. He loves it all and he wants to
01:02:42
hear more.
01:02:44
>> Mark, how did you learn sales? How do we
01:02:47
become half as good as you?
01:02:48
>> I'm not a good sal. I'm like a I'm a a
01:02:51
geek.
01:02:52
>> You are, but you know how to
01:02:53
>> call it a Tony Robbins seminar. Let's
01:02:55
go. Walk over the coals together. Let's
01:02:57
roll.
01:02:57
>> We're all going to Tony. Put out the
01:02:59
coals. We're walking across them.
01:03:01
>> Nick, let's pull up the first chart.
01:03:03
This science corner is about the dreaded
01:03:06
El Nino season that is coming up. And so
01:03:09
this is a forecast for sea surface
01:03:11
temperature anomalies. And basically
01:03:14
what this means is that the ocean at
01:03:16
this point has heated up so much that
01:03:21
there's now a forecast on ocean
01:03:23
temperatures that are going to exceed
01:03:25
anything we have seen in recent history.
01:03:29
So we're kind of looking at temperatures
01:03:30
that might be 4° above normal. That
01:03:32
doesn't sound like a lot, but let's just
01:03:34
look at this image. That top image is
01:03:36
the sea surface temperature anomaly.
01:03:38
That means how different the sea surface
01:03:40
or the the ocean temperatures are. Why
01:03:42
does that matter? And this is compared
01:03:44
to 1877 when we had the biggest El Nino
01:03:47
year ever. And I'll explain what that
01:03:49
means in a moment. But why does this all
01:03:51
matter? The reason is the oceans are the
01:03:54
battery of weather. What happens at one
01:03:57
part of the year is that the oceans
01:03:58
absorb heat energy and absorb absorb
01:04:01
absorb gets hotter and hotter and hotter
01:04:03
and then that heat energy is released
01:04:04
into the atmosphere and then the
01:04:06
atmosphere drives the weather events
01:04:07
that happen all over the world and it
01:04:09
becomes somewhat predictable that you
01:04:10
can estimate what the weather over the
01:04:13
next year is going to be like based on
01:04:15
how the temperatures are sitting in the
01:04:16
ocean today. And at this point there is
01:04:19
so much excess energy stored up in the
01:04:22
oceans. I'll give you guys a statistic.
01:04:24
It's about 11 million terowatt hours.
01:04:27
The whole planet Earth uses 25,000
01:04:30
terowatt hours in a year. So 11 million
01:04:33
extra terowatt hours of energy is
01:04:35
currently stored up. That's 500 years
01:04:37
worth of human energy in this ocean. And
01:04:39
over the next few months, that energy is
01:04:41
going to be released into the
01:04:42
atmosphere. And that will absolutely 99%
01:04:46
confidence that will make the upcoming
01:04:48
year the hottest year on record by far
01:04:50
that humans have ever experienced or at
01:04:52
least that we've experienced in recent
01:04:54
history where we didn't have data going
01:04:56
going back a long time. It changes the
01:04:58
trade winds which changes how a lot of
01:05:01
the weather evolves from a normal
01:05:02
season. It changes the moisture in the
01:05:04
atmosphere in certain parts of the
01:05:06
world. And I'll just give you some
01:05:08
highlights of what this means. Over the
01:05:09
coming year, there will be major
01:05:11
atmospheric river events where you just
01:05:13
get water dumped on you in the southwest
01:05:15
in California and the Gulf Coast. You'll
01:05:18
have very low snowfall and very high
01:05:20
heat waves in the northern part of the
01:05:21
US going up to Canada. You guys remember
01:05:23
all those fires a couple years ago in
01:05:25
Canada. Interior regions of the US like
01:05:28
in Phoenix and and so on. They're
01:05:30
already seeing temperatures at 106
01:05:32
degrees in May. A super El Nino like is
01:05:34
forecasted for this year could extend
01:05:36
that duration of these heat domes which
01:05:38
could create temperatures that we've
01:05:39
never seen in those areas. Southern
01:05:41
Argentina, Chile, Brazil could see
01:05:43
record shattering heat waves. And this
01:05:45
is where things start to get a little
01:05:46
nasty because when that happens, the
01:05:48
crops start to fail. And in many parts
01:05:51
of the world, Brazil, India, Australia,
01:05:54
these are critical uh local consumption
01:05:56
for large populations, but also major a
01:05:59
export markets. So if Brazil's crop
01:06:02
fails, if Australia's wheat crop fails,
01:06:05
Australia's wheat crop goes to places
01:06:07
like Indonesia and the Philippines.
01:06:08
Hundreds of millions of people depend on
01:06:10
that that wheat crop. Hundreds of
01:06:12
millions of people depend on the exports
01:06:13
out of Brazil. Brazil is the world's
01:06:15
largest a exporter. And the scariest one
01:06:17
of all is if the monsoons fail, which is
01:06:20
now a very high probability event in
01:06:22
India. 150 million farmers in India that
01:06:25
depend on their agricultural output or
01:06:27
they don't make any money, they can't
01:06:28
survive. and one and a half billion
01:06:30
people that depend on that food. So the
01:06:32
importance of this El Nino event goes
01:06:34
beyond just like an interesting weather
01:06:36
anecdote. But if you think about the
01:06:38
second and third effects of this over
01:06:40
the next year, you could see energy
01:06:42
prices spiking and electricity spiking
01:06:44
and the grid failing in parts of the
01:06:46
southwest, commodity prices spiking all
01:06:48
over the world. And then you would see
01:06:50
places like uh India, the Philippines,
01:06:53
Vietnam starting to face some sort of
01:06:55
unrest if there isn't enough food supply
01:06:57
that's coming into those markets. And
01:06:58
then the question in India is a really
01:07:00
nasty one because there isn't a really
01:07:01
good solution. India and markets like it
01:07:04
that are significantly dependent uh on
01:07:07
having their monsoon event but also are
01:07:10
currently facing a shortage of nitrogen
01:07:13
based fertilizer because of the crisis
01:07:14
with Iran and the straight of Hormuz
01:07:16
which we've talked about as a double
01:07:18
whammy. So over the next year in South
01:07:20
Asia you could see a calorie deficit and
01:07:23
a major kind of economic crisis that
01:07:25
starts to emerge. So, this El Nino
01:07:26
event, I just wanted to kind of bring it
01:07:28
up as an interesting science corner
01:07:29
because the data now seems pretty
01:07:31
confirmed that over the next few months,
01:07:33
we're going to have this record-breaking
01:07:34
El Nino and these are the sorts of
01:07:36
consequences that will play out over the
01:07:38
next year.
01:07:38
>> This is [ __ ] scary. God damn. What do
01:07:41
you do about the the food problem?
01:07:44
That's a big problem.
01:07:45
>> That's a big problem. And this is the
01:07:47
commodity markets are going wild for
01:07:49
this right now.
01:07:49
>> Did this did this happen the last time
01:07:51
we had an El Nino?
01:07:52
>> Yes. So when we have El Ninos, there's a
01:07:54
severity of these sorts of events
01:07:56
happening.
01:07:56
>> No, I mean, did we have a food shortage
01:07:58
problem in the last El Nino?
01:08:00
>> Oh, yeah. When we have El Ninos, there's
01:08:02
food shortages that come out of
01:08:03
Australia, Brazil. You see these events.
01:08:05
That's a regular part of the the thing.
01:08:06
The problem this year is the index is so
01:08:08
off the charts. It is so far beyond
01:08:10
anything we've seen and it's correlated
01:08:13
obviously with the severity that it
01:08:15
triggers a crisis that may be, you know,
01:08:17
really difficult to manage in a lot of
01:08:19
places. So the US is a net a exporter.
01:08:22
So from a US perspective, our big issues
01:08:24
to worry about are the fire season. By
01:08:26
the way, this does decrease Atlantic
01:08:28
hurricanes. You're going to have fewer
01:08:29
hurricanes this year in the uh in the
01:08:30
south, but you know, you have these kind
01:08:32
of major storm events that happen in
01:08:34
California, the heat waves, electricity
01:08:36
prices. We're probably more stable than
01:08:38
other parts of the world. But think
01:08:40
about the Brazil, the a export market is
01:08:42
such a significant part of the economy
01:08:44
and Brazil has a debt problem that this
01:08:46
could end up becoming an economic
01:08:47
problem in some parts of the world in
01:08:50
including Brazil. So the the commodity
01:08:52
markets are trading this El Nino event
01:08:54
pretty actively right now. It's become
01:08:55
kind of a focal area for a lot of folks
01:08:57
in in commodity markets. Can your super
01:08:59
seeds help or no?
01:09:01
>> That's a longer term solution. But I
01:09:03
mean look, we're like at the end of the
01:09:04
day having um this actually a good
01:09:06
point, but having genetics a crop
01:09:09
genetics that can adapt to a more
01:09:11
rapidly changing climate is going to be
01:09:13
critical over the next couple of
01:09:14
decades. Uh that's a big kind of macro
01:09:17
for
01:09:17
>> another part of this Freedberg that as
01:09:20
certain places heat up they actually
01:09:23
become viable places to put crops i.e.
01:09:26
Canada or the northern part of the
01:09:28
United States. So we're seeing the
01:09:31
actual places you can grow certain crops
01:09:34
independent of gen genetic modification
01:09:36
is expanding. In other words, farmlands
01:09:38
expanding because of global warming.
01:09:40
>> Right? So we increasingly grow soybeans
01:09:42
in Canada. That was not the case. uh two
01:09:45
decades ago through both plant breeding
01:09:46
where we've made the genetics adapt but
01:09:48
also the warmer temperature the shorter
01:09:49
winters and whatnot they've been able to
01:09:51
grow that that crop further north but if
01:09:55
you guys go back a couple of years there
01:09:56
were major heat waves and droughts in
01:09:58
Australia
01:09:59
>> huge fires yeah
01:10:00
>> huge fires but remember that wheat goes
01:10:02
to Indonesia it goes to Vietnam it goes
01:10:04
to these countries with hundreds of
01:10:05
millions of people dependent on it and
01:10:06
then they got to go scramble and find it
01:10:08
elsewhere now on a global basis there's
01:10:10
always a a bit of a give and a take but
01:10:13
in a year like this when you have this
01:10:14
much energy pumped into the atmosphere,
01:10:16
you may not have the given the take and
01:10:19
that's where things start to buckle.
01:10:21
>> All right. So, yeah, it's just like an
01:10:23
early warning sign. I know I've given
01:10:24
food warnings, food crisis warnings
01:10:26
twice before on the show. He gave a
01:10:28
really good one for Ukraine four years
01:10:29
ago and it turned out that that warning
01:10:33
resulted in a negotiation to allow wheat
01:10:36
to flow out of Ukraine that Russia
01:10:39
Ukraine and other folks made a specific
01:10:42
carveout in their war to make sure that
01:10:44
famine didn't spread. So
01:10:45
>> and the fertilizer export was negotiated
01:10:47
at the start of the war as well which
01:10:48
was critical.
01:10:49
>> Yeah.
01:10:49
>> Uh for sure.
01:10:50
>> I think you played a role in raising
01:10:52
awareness for that. So I give you credit
01:10:53
to Freeberg Mark. Uh thanks for coming
01:10:56
on the program. Sorry that uh at the end
01:10:58
of the program we all want to commit
01:11:00
sapuku here but you know we have Dr.
01:11:02
Doom and he uh he always loves to end
01:11:04
the show. There he is
01:11:08
with an upbeat you want to rap with an
01:11:09
upbeat anthropic
01:11:11
doomsday starring David Freriededberg
01:11:14
coming to the Marvel franchise in
01:11:16
December. Yes. So you thought Robert
01:11:18
Downey Jr. was playing him. It's
01:11:19
actually Freedberg. Here's your meme.
01:11:23
It's not Mark Beni off's first time uh
01:11:25
here in the SAS apocalypse.
01:11:27
>> There it is. First time.
01:11:31
>> He's like, I've been doing this before,
01:11:33
boys. I'm buying my stock back.
01:11:35
>> Somebody cut that rope.
01:11:37
>> Yeah, absolutely.
01:11:39
>> All right, listen. Uh I'll I'll just
01:11:41
lightning round this one. Philanthropic
01:11:43
has had enough of the shenanigans of the
01:11:45
multi-tiered, multi-layered SPVS being
01:11:49
sold to dentists for 10% loadin fees. I
01:11:53
think we all knew this day was coming
01:11:55
since it's becoming the wild west. They
01:11:57
called out specific platforms and they
01:11:59
said we're going to negate them. Chimoth
01:12:01
Tempest in a teapot or long overdue
01:12:05
punishment for bad actors.
01:12:07
>> Love Mark said it right. All these
01:12:09
companies should go public and get
01:12:11
evaluation and and focus on the higher
01:12:14
order bit. And all of these tickytacky
01:12:17
mechanisms that people can use to stay
01:12:19
private longer need to get a bullet put
01:12:21
in its head. And these SPVS are the
01:12:23
worst. The layered SPVS on SPVS on SPVS.
01:12:28
>> By the way, I and I will guarantee you
01:12:29
this. Once SpaceX goes public, once
01:12:32
Anthropic goes public, once OpenAI goes
01:12:34
public, you're going to see a litany of
01:12:37
these lawsuits back and forth between
01:12:38
the purveyors of these SPVS, they should
01:12:41
not be allowed.
01:12:42
>> They should be all negated if possible.
01:12:46
You can't now you can't unbreak the
01:12:48
eggs. So, I guess you just have to call
01:12:50
it what it is. I hope every company
01:12:51
adopts this and I hope as a result these
01:12:54
companies go public sooner and they
01:12:55
rationalize their equity structure
01:12:58
faster. I think it's the right thing to
01:13:00
do. So, I like the fact that anthropic
01:13:01
is
01:13:01
>> just say it. Descatiad.
01:13:04
>> Well, it's not discretziad. I just I I
01:13:06
just think that you are going to have a
01:13:07
lot.
01:13:08
>> No. Well, you're going to have a lot of
01:13:09
people that are going to be very upset
01:13:10
once this SpaceX thing comes out because
01:13:12
inevitably, because it happened in Uber,
01:13:14
somebody gets screwed in a layered SPV
01:13:16
somewhere that they didn't know and
01:13:18
they're going to be like, "What
01:13:19
happened?"
01:13:19
>> Read the fine print. You're getting
01:13:21
double carry and you paid 10% on the
01:13:23
loadin fee and you paid a price 10% over
01:13:26
what the last round was. So, it's a
01:13:28
recipe for disaster. The fine print. for
01:13:30
disaster.
01:13:30
>> Recipe for disaster. Hey Mark, great
01:13:33
job. Thanks so much for coming back with
01:13:35
you guys. Yeah, come back any time. You
01:13:37
were great. Hey, your
01:13:40
>> there's a we have a fan question here.
01:13:42
This is a fan question that came in
01:13:44
written by your PR department. They want
01:13:46
to know when you do your charity work uh
01:13:50
or your innovation as a founder, are you
01:13:52
more,
01:13:53
>> you know, at this stage in your career,
01:13:55
you're known for both of these things.
01:13:57
Are you more Steve Jobs or more Lorraine
01:13:59
Pal right now? What your PR department
01:14:01
worked very very deep question they f
01:14:04
the best decision I ever made the best
01:14:07
when I started Salesforce we put 1% of
01:14:10
our equity 1% of our profit and 1% of
01:14:13
all of our employees time into a
01:14:14
foundation. Today we've done more than
01:14:17
10 million hours of volunteerism. We've
01:14:19
given away more than a billion dollars
01:14:21
in grants
01:14:22
>> and we run over 50,000 nonprofits for
01:14:24
free on our platform. That's just
01:14:27
Salesforce.
01:14:28
Every I every company should do this.
01:14:30
It's amazing. Pledge11%.org.
01:14:33
That's my advertisement for the show.
01:14:35
>> Everybody should jump on the 111
01:14:37
platform. Best decision I ever made 27
01:14:39
years ago. Irrespective I've obviously
01:14:41
done a huge amount of personal
01:14:43
philanthropy to five hospital.
01:14:46
>> You did one that was really I think
01:14:48
personal. Uh Susan Wjeki tragically died
01:14:51
of cancer and major.
01:14:52
>> You're going to get me crying. Let's not
01:14:54
go there. This is not your time.
01:14:57
My best friend. Bestie. My bestie.
01:14:59
>> She was a special person, huh?
01:15:00
>> She's a star.
01:15:01
>> The best. She was the best.
01:15:03
>> Just I mean,
01:15:04
>> I'm not kidding. You're I'm not kidding.
01:15:06
>> Tell the audience what was so unique
01:15:08
about Susan. Tell tell them what you're
01:15:10
It's a good time to do a remembrance.
01:15:12
>> She This was one of the great people on
01:15:15
the planet. Incredible woman. Mother of
01:15:18
five amazing children. Um, and uh, two
01:15:22
amazing sisters, great family. Uh,
01:15:25
everybody knows Ann, her sister, her
01:15:27
sister Janet at UCSF. Um, sorry, my eyes
01:15:30
are tearing up, but I'll just tell you
01:15:32
that, you know, she contracted a very
01:15:34
rare form of cancer, passed away too
01:15:37
young a couple years ago now. Um, and
01:15:41
she was on our board. She was one of the
01:15:43
great people of all time. I'm so
01:15:45
grateful that her family is focusing on
01:15:47
building a new foundation to go after
01:15:50
this rare cancer. Uh we're backing it. I
01:15:52
think everybody should. Um look,
01:15:54
everyone should try to be a Susan. She
01:15:56
was one of the absolute greats and uh I
01:15:59
have an altar in my office. When you
01:16:01
come to see me, you'll see with the
01:16:02
photos of her and me and I think of her
01:16:05
every single day. And uh my heart just
01:16:09
stays with her, her husband Dennis, all
01:16:11
the children, the sisters, the wholeiki
01:16:14
family. Amazing. And one of the great
01:16:16
institutions in Silicon Valley. We're
01:16:18
lucky to have the whole family.
01:16:19
>> Yeah, she was fantastic.
01:16:21
>> Well said.
01:16:21
>> All right. Well said. Rest in peace,
01:16:23
Susan Waki.
01:16:24
>> Thank you.
01:16:24
>> All right. We'll see you all next time
01:16:26
on the podcast. Love you boys.
01:16:28
>> See you guys. Aloha. Thanks for Bye-bye.
