00:00:00
Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US, right? Like my job, don't worry, I will
00:00:07
get criticized if if we say, "Oh, whatever Gavin Newsome or AOC is a 55% favorite," and they lose. But like, but
00:00:15
43 of the 50 states, stated, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028.
00:00:23
And it's not because of rigging. Because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to to
00:00:30
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00:01:09
>> All right, everybody. Welcome back to the All-In interview program. We are delighted today to have the one, the
00:01:16
only Nate Silver on the program. Gambler, statistician, podcaster, Substacker. Go subscribe right now for a
00:01:24
Hyundai. Quick Hyundai at Silver Bulletin over at Substack. It's a great Substack. How you doing, brother? Nice
00:01:32
to see you with your Nicks hat on. >> I'm good. You know, I think I have like one more week to wear the Knicks hat.
00:01:37
It's a little bulky, not super podcast video friendly, but I I you know, once in 53 years, once in my lifetime at
00:01:44
least. >> Did you go to any of those games? >> I went to a bunch of the Philly series.
00:01:48
I went to um I think as Jason did, I was in Philly for like the >> New York City Takeover of Wells Fargo or
00:01:55
whatever the hell it's called now, Infinity or something. Um I went to the Trump game, which was not the right game
00:02:01
to go to, but I wanted to be there. I wanted to kind of cover it for my readers. I felt like it was a moment
00:02:07
where New York might triumph out of this [ __ ] show that it was to get into the
00:02:11
arena. Um >> it was a >> You had to show up what 2 hours early to get in 3 hours.
00:02:16
>> I am I am not a particularly prompt person. No, I got I'm not wasn't going to miss. So I got there at like 6:05
00:02:23
for an 8:30 game. >> Lined up. You're supposed to get in on 6th Avenue and 33rd and I was like on
00:02:29
6th and 30th or 29th. It wasn't the worst. >> It wasn't the least efficient process
00:02:34
I've ever seen. New York has a way of getting things done and you just kind of like
00:02:37
>> follow people and and once you get in, I mean, it was like literally TSA security. They like literally like look
00:02:44
at your wallet by hand and they take your lighters and and and your pens and your vapes and everything like that. And
00:02:50
uh once you get in it was pretty normal. I did feel like the crowd was a little bit fatigued by the second half, which
00:02:56
was a choppy second half where there were some questionable officiating decisions. Yeah, I actually did you bet
00:03:02
any of the games and like did you find the odds were off anywhere? >> I had the Knicks to win the Eastern
00:03:07
Conference Finals and then after they wrapped up their series, I bet them uh to win the finals against either OKC or
00:03:13
San Antonio. So, I actually I the ticket was not cheap. I paid it would not cover
00:03:18
Jason's tickets, but I was able to cover uh cover my 200 level bull seat with the
00:03:24
profits from from those non-H homer bets. I thought the Knicks were legitimately overlooked in the East. And
00:03:29
when you see a team that wins like that game against Atlanta where we were up like literally like 77 to 22
00:03:35
>> at some point or something like I'm like as somebody who like studies this stuff
00:03:38
and builds models to see that kind of signature significance for that level of dominance over whatever it was four
00:03:45
rounds of the playoffs like that's that's real. That's like not noise. >> Do you bet prediction markets or how do
00:03:52
you bet >> big Tony? If if you are I don't bet through big Tony. If you are someone
00:03:58
who's pursued so I've been limited by draft kings and and MGM a lot of the uh traditional retail sports books limit
00:04:05
you the prediction markets do not I can solve for poly market I should say. So if you're a sharp better I have other
00:04:11
issues believe me with the prediction markets but if you are a sharp better then it becomes easier to just
00:04:15
concentrate your activity on the prediction markets where you know you have very smart people you have hedge
00:04:20
funds who are probably making bets in these markets more and more but yeah more more and more I don't want to go
00:04:25
through the rigma roll of like can I even get my money down so I' I will admit I've gravitated toward toward
00:04:30
those yes >> and uh when you look at this team what do you attribute because obviously
00:04:35
during the season it was up and We were 15 games from the end of the season. People were like, "Hey, we got
00:04:42
to trade for Giannis. We got to get Cat out of here." But in January, February, we had this incredible run where we had
00:04:48
used Cat as the point center. And then we backed off of it and I was on Knicks Fan TV talking with like the real deep
00:04:55
folks and there was speculation like they figured it out and they're like, "Let's hold this play." Mike Brown said,
00:05:01
"Let's hold cat at the point from, you know, until the playoffs because we know it works so good." But what makes this
00:05:07
team so special? Is it the the wings? Is it just Brunson's grit? Is it the three-point shooting across the team?
00:05:14
Selflessness, ball movement? There's so many things people talk about here with this team.
00:05:18
>> I think it's Mike Brown and Cat. I'm not saying the most important components of
00:05:23
the Knicks. I'm saying they're those are the deltas where things changed the most. Um
00:05:28
>> on defense, a couple of things. Number one, you have I love Jaylen Brunson. Might be my favorite player. Um, he's
00:05:34
not a terrific one-on-one defender. He gets a few seals, but like he's undersized. The low center of gravity
00:05:39
somehow doesn't work on defense as well. But like every other defender of the Knicks, including Towns, which is a
00:05:45
descent descended point of view, are are at least average, if not better. And so
00:05:50
like kind of figuring out that system. By the way, when you rely on a defensive system that requires high effort and
00:05:56
transition play, not playing your guys 37 minutes per game against like the Charlotte Hornets in the regular season,
00:06:02
probably a smart move. Um >> yeah, this is why Tibs had to go when you look back on it. Tibs going who
00:06:07
ground these guys into submission for three seasons and they were >> Yeah, it was like we were down one, two,
00:06:14
or three starters for every round of the previous playoffs. Yeah. >> Yeah. I remember going uh to the Indiana
00:06:19
I guess game seven of the semi-finals against Indiana in 2024 and you kind of see like OG was hobbling around out
00:06:26
there. I guess Josh Hart kind of valiantly played and you're like these guys are like an infirmary ward.
00:06:31
>> Um and especially because you're relying on smart higheffort defense. So that
00:06:36
part on defense and low key they became like a much better defensive team in the
00:06:41
second half, right? Um, I remember also going this year to the Knicks Nets game in December, January, not the most fun
00:06:48
part of the year in New York where um where they had lost like seven out of nine games and there was all the talk
00:06:55
about like cap being traded and I just wanted to go and check out the vibe. actually bet on the Knicks to win by
00:07:03
like 15 points or more because I thought this is either going to be like the beginning of the end for this regime or
00:07:09
it's going to be a turnaround game against you know a team that's trying to lose frankly a cross town rebels trying
00:07:13
to lose and the fans were like pretty tolerant of cat they wound up winning by like 60 points or something totally
00:07:20
absurd or held the nets of one of the lowest scorers in the modern NBA era and like that team from there they by the
00:07:26
way they won the NBA cup >> yep >> but like in the second half they had something like the fifth best defense in
00:07:33
the NBA. They had the best defense in the NBA in the playoffs. Maybe not sustainable, but like but that on
00:07:38
defense and then Cat presenting look again like I love Jaylen Brunson. The offense can be a little bit predictable
00:07:45
maybe in clutch possessions. >> And it's amazing that Jaylen Brunson I mean he shot like 53% between 16 and 22
00:07:52
feet which is kind of insane given that you know it's coming. It's like Marian Rivera's like cut fast ball. You know
00:07:58
it's coming. Um, but just to have more optionality and variety in the offense and to have more ball movement. So to
00:08:05
have those two spontaneous things happen, the coaching system led improvement on defense plus like Cat
00:08:12
having a revelation like I think he's like one of the >> 15 best players in the league. He was
00:08:18
rated as like >> yeah, he's a really good player. And so those two things combined, you know, a
00:08:25
little bit unusual for a veteran team, granted, but spontaneous improvement on both sides of the ball. Um, coupled with
00:08:30
the Knicks, by the way, have the most playoff games out of any team in the past four years, more than Boston, more
00:08:37
than OKC, a lot more than San Antonio. There is empirical evidence that playoff experience does matter. Um, this comes
00:08:44
up in in poker, too. If you are in your first big tournament and maybe you're rated the GPI number one player
00:08:51
and you're playing in the main event of the World Series of Poker, nerves are a thing. Even in golf, nerves are a huge
00:08:57
thing. It's a physical ordeal almost and like you're operating on a different operating system. And to have had
00:09:02
experience in a lot of high stakes games, not all of which were wins, but like it really does it really does help.
00:09:09
and and >> those two comebacks from the Pacers game from the Boston games where we just
00:09:15
broke their backs last year that I think made it obvious to anybody when we're down 10 15 points that's not a lead
00:09:22
against the Knicks. The Knicks are going to come back. We're just that good. Um and it's just fantastic now that the
00:09:28
entire league has to plan how do they beat the Knicks. We've spent the last like five or six years how do we get
00:09:34
through Boston? How do we get through this team? Now the entire league has to do that. All right, we should get
00:09:39
started here. We got so much to talk about and obviously you specialize in elections. We got the midterms coming
00:09:44
up. We're going to talk about 2028 postTrump world, all of that. But we just concluded an election. An election
00:09:51
which I don't want to speak for Dave, but you may have seen or heard the podcast where he was like, "Hey, this is
00:09:57
not illegal, but it doesn't feel like a real election." take us through what happened in your estimation in
00:10:05
California with Spencer Pratt fraud just mailing ball. >> That was just Yeah, that was just the LA
00:10:11
election, Jason, just to be clear. >> Yeah, just to go with LA, but go ahead, build on it. Yeah. The question that I
00:10:16
wanted to talk to you about, Nate, is when you look at the in-person return data and then you look at the early
00:10:22
mail-in data and then the late mailin data where suddenly Nipia Ramen has this massive surge and there's this huge
00:10:29
statistical difference as the ballots start to get counted in the days and weeks that follow. She wins. it seems
00:10:36
very improbable that there's a true statistical difference in the population that might you know be in person mail in
00:10:44
early and mail in late and I just wanted to get your read on that. So I'd say I think there's no evidence of fraud is
00:10:50
the short summary version. The mistake that can be made is to assume that each ballot like comes in independently when
00:10:58
there are systematic differences between groups and when they tend to cast their
00:11:01
ballots. So, Democrats have long been encouraged to vote by mail. Actually, it used to be more of a Republican thing,
00:11:07
but like under Trump who discouraged mail voting in 2016 and 2020 um and 2024 to some extent, like that shifted. So,
00:11:16
look, I think California's system is completely unacceptable. I've done um some consulting work on like the Indian
00:11:25
election where you like literally have polling stations in the Himalayas and they actually stagger their elections.
00:11:30
But once election day happens, they count their vote within 24 hours. I think it's ridiculous and very failed
00:11:37
state that California takes longer than that. But if you have one party who systematically tends to vote later, also
00:11:43
Democrats in both the LA race and the governorhip had more of a choice to make. Uh you know, it wasn't clear. You
00:11:50
know, for a while it looked like Eric Swallwell was going to was going to win and then Katie Porter and then and then
00:11:56
and then you know, Basera finally emerges. Bera like look my dad is from LA. I spent a lot of time in California
00:12:04
and I am all on board with the criticisms of how the state is being governed at least in parts of the state.
00:12:09
I was in um San Diego for New Year's and beautiful time of year to be in San Diego and like you can like literally
00:12:17
run on the sand in the beach and everyone's kind of like hot and you have good fish tacos and everything else like
00:12:22
that. I kind of understood the California of like my youth or my dad's youth or whatever else and understand
00:12:30
the appeal of the state and I understand why LA and SF I think LA in particular kind of never really recovered from the
00:12:36
pandemic. We can talk about that. At the same time, it's a very partisan state. We have very partisan Democrats like Kla
00:12:43
Harris and Gavin Newsome who emerged from the state. We saw in the redistricting referendum, I guess it was
00:12:48
in 2025, how like you can debate whether it's a good idea or not, but like that traced with the Democratic margin in
00:12:55
presidential years very strongly, even though for many years Democrats had been the party against gerrymandering. Um,
00:13:01
it's a capital D democratic state. It's not an idiosyncratic blue state like Maine or something. And like so like to
00:13:11
expect even a very talented Republican like Spencer Pratt to win the mayorship. I mean even in New York we have a bit
00:13:18
more heterodoxy historically. We've had a a you know socialist mayor. We've had Michael Bloomberg and Rudy Giani in
00:13:25
recent years too. California is not that way. It's much more of a a machine state.
00:13:31
>> But when you look at that statistical difference, I I get the idea that Democrats mail in ballots and they show
00:13:37
up late. But when you look at the overwhelming votes for NPIA Ramen over Karen Bass that happened late in the
00:13:45
counting cycle versus early in the counting cycle and the statistical kind of shift over that happened and you look
00:13:52
at the difference between in person and mail in being so statistically different
00:13:56
and I get your point about Republicans are more likely to go in person and maybe you can make that leap there but
00:14:01
the difference in accounting that happened over time the ratio just seems so different between ramen and bass and
00:14:07
then People bring up this idea of ballot harvesting where there were homeless people from Skidro and the number of
00:14:12
ballots that came from that particular region in the late mailin was kind of concentrated for NPIA Ramen. Do you get
00:14:19
a sense that that actually is a true representation of individual voters and how they individually voted in that
00:14:26
election? >> I think the California vote count is an accurate tally of the votes that were
00:14:31
cast. So, I mean, yeah, look, >> mail in. >> Were they cast by the individuals that
00:14:36
were supposed to cast them? Right. This is one of the theories is that there's ballots that are getting filled out on
00:14:41
mass in these ballot harvesting efforts or people walk around and they say, "Hey, fill out this ballot for this
00:14:47
person and here's a free lunch or I don't know what's going on, but like there's all these videos. I don't know
00:14:51
if they're true or not." >> I think there is propaganda around this. I also think that like mail and voting
00:14:57
provides some verification challenges in different ways. uh you know I don't inherently see anything that wrong with
00:15:05
a system where you go to a physical place to vote and you sign um you sign your voter log and and whether you show
00:15:13
ID or not and then if you have like a disability or you're really in bad straight you're traveling in Albania or
00:15:18
something then you can >> that makes sense but I want to ask I just want to ask you the empirical
00:15:22
question what is the difference in states or districts or cities that don't have voter ID and those that do
00:15:29
politically like is that basically create a huge overweighting for Democrats. Can you just help us
00:15:34
understand the politics behind this from an empirical perspective? Not putting on
00:15:38
a spin hat or anything. So the theory used to be that Democrats benefit from higher turnout by kind of any means at
00:15:47
all. And that was an era when Democrats tended to dominate among non-olucated voters whereas Republicans were like the
00:15:54
the you know country club kowanas club people who like show up in the first day of voting. that has shifted. Look where
00:16:01
Democrats have really, really overperformed. It's in special elections. It's in midterms as opposed
00:16:08
to high turnout races like like when Trump's been on the ballot. Um and so like I think if Trump like look I think
00:16:15
voter ID would be pretty reasonable. I'm not against voter ID. You show your ID to do you know if you show ID even at
00:16:23
mid-40s to get into a bar, you can probably show it to vote. Um, but like at the same time, um, I don't think that
00:16:30
explains what we saw in California. I think it's a system that is much too slow where you have different branches
00:16:34
of ballots that are kind of differently and where younger people that might be more progressive tend to vote later
00:16:41
andor by mail. And again, it's not like this happened in Alabama or something. The the prior on Pratt advancing
00:16:50
probably would be pretty low potentially. And I wish that people were were less partisan. I, you know, I have
00:16:57
been um critical on on the newsletter Silver Bullion about Graham Platner, for example, um because I think he's
00:17:06
somebody who has not proven a reliable figure, so to speak. And I was critical of of Joe Biden. And I'm not even
00:17:13
registered as a Democrat, by the way, despite what people assume. Um, but if you're going to have five different ways
00:17:20
to vote, and I say this to someone with experience, like actually trying to build election night models and being on
00:17:26
national TV on election nights, these blue shifts or red shifts are somewhat predictable and are going to be a
00:17:32
notable consequence of of having different mechanisms to vote where you have like different cues in the line.
00:17:38
Right? If you're at MSG and you have like a VIP line, the cohort that arrives through the VIP line is going to be
00:17:44
different than the one that arrives through like the main gates on on 7th Avenue or whatever. And I think the
00:17:49
system should be simplified. By the way, also things like rank choice voting, which I again, as an election wonk, I
00:17:56
support giving voters more choice. You shouldn't need like Maine or New York City take um an extra two weeks to count
00:18:04
rank choice voting where I could claude code. Yeah, >> a a rank choice voting algorithm that
00:18:12
would resolve itself in seven minutes even with 100 million votes in Maine or half a million or whatever it was Nate
00:18:19
that we have the appearance of impropriety and we have a highly politicized system. I don't want to lead
00:18:25
the witness here too much but we do find isolated cases like this woman Anakah Brenda Lee Brown Armstrong.
00:18:33
was paying people three bucks or giving them cigarettes to register them. You have these on the margin fraudulent
00:18:41
looking behaviors and then if it takes this long that gives another appearance of impropriety but I keep bringing up
00:18:48
the Heritage Foundation. I'm sure you've looked at their data. They have a lot of
00:18:51
people trying to figure out where fraud exists investigating it and it's dimminimous. It's couple of thousands of
00:18:58
cases they can find. So even if you extrapolated them 10x or 20x, pick your multiple, it would never swing a major
00:19:06
election. In fact, the number of elections that have been swung based on what they told me is like the most local
00:19:13
smallest election where there's tens of thousands of votes or thousands of votes. So is that the issue that we're
00:19:18
seeing here? This collection of appearances of impropriy? >> Yes. Look, the you the American election
00:19:25
system is very decentralized. um which you know as kind of like a a old school liberal in some ways who I'm
00:19:34
kind of against centralized power I think is quite brilliant in some respects but yeah the scale there is
00:19:41
certainly there are certainly cases of fraud when Al Franken won what was it 2006 right that came down to like a
00:19:47
recount of like 200 votes we're never going to know that with any degree of certainty there is like a margin of
00:19:53
error but in practice and we know this too when you do have recounts again and I've studied this a
00:19:58
You have an 0.5% recount threshold in most states. Almost never have you had a margin larger than 0.05%
00:20:07
or so overturned. The errors can also cancel out. Again, you know, the notion that someone can vote without physically
00:20:16
being like the ward of their ballot. Understand why that bothers people. And I think California has been
00:20:22
complacent about this. And I think perception does matter. And I think you can there's a kind of certain arrogance
00:20:29
I guess is a term that comes to mind um about saying well we want everyone to vote and so we're just gonna do things
00:20:35
our way and it takes a long time because we're like taking time to verify things.
00:20:38
Again you know having studied elections all around the world that's very unusual. Most countries would count much
00:20:44
much faster than the US. It's probably because we have an electoral college system. it's decentralized but like in
00:20:51
most elections in France or the UK where they keep having elections or wherever else or Japan or India even you know the
00:20:58
result of the vote within a few hours and the fact that the United States the technological leader of the world and
00:21:03
the supposed like beacon of democracy can't do that I think is is a sign of atrophy of of the efficacy of the system
00:21:10
>> or is it by design Nick let me ask you a question if voter ID laws don't change
00:21:15
and mail and ballot laws don't change and the system doesn't change. Is there a chance, do you think, from the data
00:21:22
you've seen for Republican governor to be elected again in California or for Republicans to win more seats in the
00:21:29
House or have a shot at winning a Senate seat in California? I mean, fundamentally, does this system not get
00:21:35
set up in such a way that it creates a irreversible model for Democrat establishment to maintain its control
00:21:42
over elected seats in the state? I mean, Democrats have lost plenty of elections
00:21:47
recently, but not in California. Partisanship is the gravity that dictates every election in the US,
00:21:54
right? Like my job, don't worry, I will get criticized if if we say, "Oh, whatever Gavin Newsome or AOC is a 55%
00:22:02
favorite and they lose." But like, but 43 of the 50 states, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence
00:22:09
who they'll vote for in 2028. And it's not because of rigging. It's because polarization and partisanship are very
00:22:17
powerful forces that we can't seem to to escape from. You know, again, I would love um you see a little bit of this in
00:22:23
New England actually, right? You see like a Charlie Baker or as Phil Scott in Vermont, right? You see a little bit of
00:22:29
like crossartisanship in New England. You see even in the South like Basher in Kentucky is a moderate but Democratic
00:22:37
governor. Um, for some reason you don't see it as much in California. I don't know why. California has like always
00:22:43
been like the laboratory of weird and eccentric political ideas, but it's come it's become a machine state. Maybe
00:22:49
because it's so large that voters can't kind of touch the candidates up close and don't have a lot of like directly
00:22:57
relatable experience. Um maybe California is just kind of like too large in general. But I look I am very
00:23:03
concerned about polarization and partisanship. I think it leads to lower quality of governance. I think it's
00:23:11
exacerbated by gerrymandering. This gerrymandering kind of war to the bottom. Um and Democrats have paid the
00:23:19
price where like the triangulation you pick the least worst nominee works perfectly fine in blue states. They're
00:23:26
going to win the general election. um it hasn't given the Democrats very effective general election nominees,
00:23:32
right? Between um you know, I consider like, you know, they're one out of the last four. I consider Biden to have lost
00:23:38
in 2024 before Harris lost instead. Um you know, the one election that did win was during a once in a century pandemic
00:23:46
that although I have my critiques of liberal handling of COVID, was kind of objectively handled well. I don't know.
00:23:52
You can talk about Operation Worksheet. I understand why voters were very unhappy with 2020, the 2020 version of
00:23:58
Trump and and the greatest economic disruption since the 1930s. Um, so they kind of won the gimme. They haven't won
00:24:05
the close elections recently except for Obama who conspicuously at least kind of
00:24:10
made rhetoric to trying to bridge a divide between the parties. Um, you know, Obama still has a I looked at this
00:24:18
today a 57% approval rating postfacto with with independence. Biden is at 20%. Um, and like look, I think a lot of
00:24:26
Democrats and Republicans, certainly, maybe even more so, Republicans, frankly, under Trump feel as though you
00:24:31
don't even have to try to turn out the other side or persuade people. It's just a numbers game. And in California, if
00:24:37
you're Democrats, you win the numbers game. >> You run backtoback calls all day.
00:24:46
Decisions get made, then the details slip. Plaude fixes that. Clip Plaude Note Pro to your phone, hit record, and
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00:25:04
Find Claude Note Pro at Claude.ai. I think we want to really get to 2026 and 2028 and talk about what you were
00:25:14
alluding to, which is the polarization and how these parties have changed. The Republicans used to be, you know, this
00:25:22
country club group, uh, elites, rich people, business owners. Now they're the populist party. Then the other side,
00:25:30
which used to be the working man and the working women's party, they've become this liberal weird socialist party. and
00:25:36
that seems to be playing. >> They're both parties. >> What's going on with the vibes, I guess,
00:25:42
between these two parties? And how do you look at them? Because it does feel like inside of each of those parties,
00:25:47
you have two subp parties. So, you really have like some sort of 4x4 matrix here or 2x2 matrix with four different
00:25:53
groups. How is that going to play out in 2026, which still feels like the anti-Trump vote? Like, hey, I'm not
00:26:00
happy about Trump. But 2028, there's Trump's not going to run a third time in all likelihood. So, let's take those two
00:26:07
buckets as well as the vibes and these parties fracturing a bit. >> Yeah, I think Democrats really have
00:26:13
three factions as I've described them. Um, one is the left, the avatars might be Zoron, um, might be AOC, might be
00:26:22
Bernie Sanders, all of whom, by the way, are quite effective politicians in their
00:26:28
own way. I mean, Zaren understood how to like be a Knicks cheerleader, for example.
00:26:34
>> Oh, God. Yeah, >> he speech was like almost perfect. Whoever wrote it for him is a Knicks
00:26:40
fan. >> But look, I'll be honest. I I didn't vote for him, but like I think find
00:26:45
anyone who's like trying to like bridge gaps and expand a tent, even if it's from a direction that I might not agree
00:26:52
with. I find that like somewhat appealing, I suppose. You know, AOC, you can take or leave. She has become a more
00:26:59
effective tactical politician. you know, Bernie, what he's built with um with being a freaking old guy from Vermont,
00:27:06
the socialist mayor of Burlington, Vermont, coming within not a hair's breath, but coming, you know, quite
00:27:12
close and beating Clinton in 20 states in 2016 or whatever was quite impressive. But like that's one
00:27:17
constituency and historically the left has not had a lot of big wins outside of the bluest states. On the other side,
00:27:23
there are the abundance libs kind of named after Ezra Klein, right? They are more pro- free market. They sometimes
00:27:29
deny that they're centrist. I think they're pretty centrist. They are the ones who are very concerned with
00:27:34
California as a case study of poor governance. And whenever you think about parties at the national level, um,
00:27:40
generally speaking, it's the purple states, sometimes the red states where things are more are more functional,
00:27:48
where there's more housing, where when you get out of the airport to catch an Uber, there's not some convoluted system
00:27:54
where you have to wait 20 minutes in line to go to some shuttle like an LAX or whatever else, right? Um, where
00:28:01
there's population growth. I mean you want to talk about like hard data, population data in the US and jobs data
00:28:06
is pretty good and those are states where people have moved to and the abundance lies are critical of
00:28:11
democratic governance and critical of of um culture war issues on policing and trans rights and and you have what I
00:28:20
call the resistance lib faction. They're the ones who say they really fit up with
00:28:26
the Democratic establishment, but are still often very partisan and often very like cheerleading for the blue team.
00:28:34
They're the ones who thought that Joe Biden was railroaded out of the 2024 race, for example. They're really Gavin
00:28:40
Newsome's constituency. Um why is Gavin Newsome going out of his way to support and endorse kind of the Bidens when
00:28:48
Biden, even among Democrats, is not all that popular anymore? Everyone else wants to move on. And well, it's because
00:28:53
it's a signal to like the resistance libs that like I have your back. I'm a fighter. The reason why we didn't win in
00:29:00
2024 was because the media was unfair to Biden andor because Kla Harris was a black woman. So, pick a white guy who
00:29:08
will fight for you and tweet in all caps and you'll win. I don't. >> So, it's kind of like ride or die. We're
00:29:13
going to just our team, our team, our team's going to win. It doesn't matter. We never apologize. Kind of the Trump
00:29:19
playbook. Never apologize. Go on the attack. seems to be what Gavin's doing, right?
00:29:23
>> Absolutely. And he had some some proof of concept. I mean, the redistricting thing was a genuinely smart tactical
00:29:30
move. Democrats are going to wind up losing seats, but like without California, they probably lose even
00:29:35
more. And so, he did skate where the puck was going there instead of the party's like usual risk version that
00:29:40
I've critiqued before. Um, but at the same time, the triangulating spirit of like, let's pick Kla Harris
00:29:49
cuz she she's like the least unacceptable candidate or Hillary or or John Kerry if you want to go back to
00:29:55
2004. Um, the establishment doesn't seem to have an understanding of the fact that like almost every election now,
00:30:02
Obama in 2012 was, I guess, the exception, almost every election now is a change election. We might pingpong
00:30:08
back and forth for many cycles. Like I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028. It wouldn't shock me if AOC
00:30:17
or Newsome or Shapiro or Assaf or whoever wins. If they're underdogs again in 2032, look what's happening in the UK
00:30:24
where I mean it's kind of become like a running joke, but we're going to be through like what like six prime
00:30:28
ministers in 9 years or something and they're probably the US's like closest comp. Um it's not a good time to be a
00:30:36
defender of the status quo. And I do think candidates like Kamla Harris who was unable to distance herself kind of
00:30:43
literally unable or unwilling to distance herself from from Biden or Newsome who's kind of like defending
00:30:49
that legacy in the same way. Like to me that seems like a a failed strategy. But
00:30:55
like in a lot of these World Cup games sometimes, you know, sometimes you win on penalties. You know, I I don't think
00:30:59
that any of the GOP nominees look to be particularly strong. Donald Trump and our approval ratings now is down to 38%.
00:31:07
People are upset about Iran. They're upset about gas prices. They're upset about just fatigue of having, you know,
00:31:14
a singular center star of politics over the past. You know, Trump kind of is like it's
00:31:20
fatiguing a little bit. And so, like, it's an uphill battle for the GOP. Democrats might do their best to to give
00:31:26
Republicans a fighting chance despite that. So just to extrapolate from that like the point about needing change,
00:31:33
driving change on the progressive side, we are seeing socialists getting elected
00:31:39
as mayor, socialists starting to rise at the state level and many of these candidates that you've mentioned are
00:31:45
self-declared socialists at the national level. We may potentially have a Democratic socialist as president 2028
00:31:53
based on what you're saying. Is that ultimately where this goes where the populist movements drive the left
00:32:00
further left and everyone in that party now seems to be jumping on this bandwagon proclaiming socialist
00:32:07
principles as the only way to solve inequity and unfairness in this country and you know kind of jumping on what we
00:32:13
were from empirical kind of history shown doesn't work as a governing system as a economic system but suddenly
00:32:21
everyone's kind of been swept away by it and seems to think it's it's the the only way forward. Does that kind of the
00:32:27
the output of the conditions that you're describing that the left the democrats basically become a socialist party and
00:32:32
they embrace socialism fully and fullthroated? I think there are huge generational divides where you know so I
00:32:39
grew up I'm 48 um so I still remember the kind of not lastes but like I still remember the cold war I still remember
00:32:49
the Berlin wall following right so for me the connotations are of socialism are close adjacent to communism
00:32:58
are a long history of failure of economic development in countries that adopted that system I think people who
00:33:04
are a a little bit older don't realize that like the socialism brand is much more popular among younger Democrats. By
00:33:11
the same token, America is still a supremely capitalist country. You know, if not for and again I in my book I have
00:33:20
lots of critiques of the tech sector. We still are attracting the best and brightest young talent from all around
00:33:26
the world. You know, I personally think the AI capital boom, whatever becomes of
00:33:30
it, is responsible for keeping our economy, at least the stock market, in relatively good shape. Um, and you know,
00:33:38
also things like where have Democrats lost support? Well, actually, the biggest differences are concentrated
00:33:44
among Hispanic and to some extent Asian-American voters. You know, who do you think are the most likely people to
00:33:50
own small businesses in the US? It's a cliche, but 100% true that like recent immigrant groups are very
00:33:57
entrepreneurial. It's one thing that I believe makes the United States great and one thing that makes me very
00:34:02
pro-immigration. Um, but you have seen shifts in those groups and the most entrepreneurial groups away from
00:34:08
Democrats. >> Yeah. Because I mean they they all escaped socialist countries and
00:34:12
socialist backgrounds and the economic mobility that's afforded by free markets and capitalism and the degree of true
00:34:19
liberalism we provide in this country is what's given folks opportunities that don't exist elsewhere.
00:34:26
But the second and third generation of the American middle class are probably you know more likely as you point out to
00:34:33
kind of be convinced of the benefits of socialism. This isn't your wheelhouse, Nate, but if you were hired to give a
00:34:39
playbook to either party for 2028, what would be in that playbook? What would you tell them is the right platform for
00:34:49
this moment in time, a postTrump era, and with socialism, wealth disparity, healthcare, this there's a group of
00:34:57
issues here that keep coming up. The support of Israel, foreign wars. What's the perfect platform for either party,
00:35:04
an independent or left-leaning or right-leaning? What are on going to be on the top of Americans minds if you can
00:35:11
look that far out? >> Yeah. Look, I by most definitions am an elite as are you guys. You can afford
00:35:18
tickets to game three of the >> first NBA Finals game in New York in whatever 25 years and you're probably an
00:35:24
elite. And most elites like me say they're, you know, socially liberal, economically moderate, econ, you know, I
00:35:32
use the term liberal, meaning the way liberals use in Europe, meaning some role for the state, but pro- market in
00:35:39
general. And that's probably my view. Um, I'm not sure that view is actually an electoral winner as much, right? Um,
00:35:48
the most neglected voters in the US are people who are culturally a little bit more conservative, but like economically
00:35:56
more progressive potentially, but not quite in the same way that you get from like a an AOC. They support small
00:36:04
business. They are wary of conglomerations of power. Or maybe I'm putting that with with too generous a
00:36:09
brush. But like I do think that like when you have the worst world's first trillionaire when people have a lot of
00:36:16
anxiety. Maybe the anxiety is not the right shape of anxiety but understandable anxiety about AI. When
00:36:22
you have AI leaders saying things like it's going to displace all these white collar jobs. I look I think a
00:36:30
electorally I'm not saying morally or righteously whatever else, right? I think combining a little bit of the
00:36:37
right kind of anti- oligarch rhetoric um with moderation on some of the issues um
00:36:46
you know on the woke stuff. I get that term already feels like it's becoming outdated. Um but like still supporting
00:36:52
small business especially for men right um young men still want to feel as though they control their own destiny. A
00:37:02
lot of them feel like they don't do that anymore, but I don't think they necessarily want like all that much
00:37:06
handholding. But no, it's a difficult thing to to triangulate. And the US is not alone in having a lot of resistance
00:37:14
and dissatisfaction with with the status quo. You know, I mean, again, this is part of why, and I'm sure about 2% of
00:37:21
your audience will be sympathetic to this, why I have like been more defending of Zoran Namani living in New
00:37:28
York is because like he's at least getting the ins and outs. We'll see what happens in in after 4 years of like New
00:37:35
York being like a a basically functional city, right? We have really nice new airports. It's not Zoran's doing. That's
00:37:43
quo and a hell of a lot of money spent. But like our crime is like relatively low compared to to California. I used to
00:37:51
live right near Penn Station Madison Square Garden. Not the nicest neighborhood, not the nicest block, but
00:37:56
like I never walked around feeling unsafe there when I visit SF. Um then you have to be more careful, right? And
00:38:03
so I I think like combining functional performance in government with whatever message you want is part of it. I think
00:38:10
maybe even like having like a little bit more like optimism too. I'm I'm kind of
00:38:15
always a fan of like zigging where other people zag Obama presented a more optimistic take about like kind of like
00:38:23
the American spirit, right? You know, look, I see um all the enthusiasm around the World Cup and the Knicks. I I don't
00:38:31
want to sound like cliche, but you know, tonight after we tape, which is taping on a Monday night, New York time, right?
00:38:37
I can like wander around the streets of New York and there'll be some like Norwegian bar that has Norway game on
00:38:44
and like that does make America great and like rediscovering those values. I don't know. I mean maybe somebody like a
00:38:51
you know I think maybe the most electable Democrat might be somebody like a a John Oaf who is who is younger
00:38:57
who is pretty progressive if you look at his voting record but like but isn't like a brawler in quite the same way
00:39:03
that that Nuome is trying to be. I mean, the generational part is a lot of this.
00:39:08
Uh, you know, I think it's insane that we had a candidate who was trying to be president until he was 86 and the
00:39:16
alternative is someone who's trying to be president until he's 82. Like I I don't you don't see very many Warren
00:39:21
Buffett fine. If Warren Buffett ran for president, maybe I'd vote for him, right? But like you don't see very many
00:39:27
leaders in the parts of the world. You don't see very many CEOs or leaders otherwise. I, you know, I very much
00:39:32
value the contribution of my older friends, right? But like to run the biggest country in the world um as an
00:39:38
82y old to me seems kind of insane. >> And so there's some basic level of competence that Mandami is showing in
00:39:45
New York. He's positive. He's fixing potholes. He's making it, you know, a celebration of whatever the sports teams
00:39:52
are. He's fixing garbage. Like there are some basic things that New Yorkers very
00:39:56
much appreciate in quality of life. And that's not something you expect from a Democrat or a socialist. Um and it those
00:40:03
kind of like blocking and tackling and the high level of engagement um which Trump you mentioned kind of
00:40:10
burns people out with that high level of engagement seems like Mandami comes just
00:40:14
under that. He's a little more positive. He doesn't use like the toxicity that much but he's he's engaging right and
00:40:21
that seems to be working in New York and with the voter base. No, >> he's pretty popular here so far. And
00:40:28
again New York is a New York is a capitalist >> city. I think I think it's different
00:40:32
than somewhere like California. It's not kind of as West Coast uh freshwater progressive. New York is a pragmatic
00:40:39
place that people from all around the world migrate to. It's a place where there's a lot of wealth all around you.
00:40:45
It's also a place that despite seeming like a chaotic [ __ ] show at times. I mean, it's look, it's easy to be
00:40:50
optimistic about New York in in mid June when we have like the most beautiful weather of the year and everyone's
00:40:55
coming to visit and everything else, but like but New York is a success story in
00:40:59
a way that I think California has become less of one maybe. >> Sorry, let me just ask you a question on
00:41:05
this capitalism. Have you seen data that underscores this mainline that everyone's talking
00:41:12
about that the youth are kind of disillusioned by capitalism and don't believe in capitalism? I mean to see
00:41:18
this happen in a city like New York to your point, a city that is a bastion of capitalism and progress and opportunity
00:41:24
for people for people to put in place a candidate as mayor that denounces the capitalism as a system and talks about
00:41:31
collectivism just seems to indicate that maybe there's a real movement with the youth. I mean, one of the statistics I
00:41:37
always quote to people >> is I think 45 million people graduated college in the last decade in the United
00:41:43
States that have all of them or a large percentage of them I should say have a pretty significant debt burden that they
00:41:51
feel is going to be very hard to get out of. And I would argue that that's a function of the federal student loan
00:41:56
program and its underwriting processes and it really condemns people to a life that is going to be very hard to grow
00:42:02
your way out of. But what does the data tell you about capitalism and what that says about the next cycle here?
00:42:09
>> Yeah. Where the cut point is is probably around age 40, I'd say. Obviously, it
00:42:16
kind of ages by a year every year. And like, you know, we saw I saw before the New York Mel race last year, people who
00:42:23
were able to make incredibly accurate almost blockbyb block, neighborhood by neighborhood projections based on where
00:42:29
Zoran would be good versus Cuomo, just based on knowing the city and where younger people, younger, more
00:42:34
progressive people live. I would say, you know, I think part of it might have to do with economic anxiety for sure. I
00:42:41
think it's also your experience like growing up and exactly when you kind of came of age, right? Again, I grew up in
00:42:47
like um I guess the first election I was old enough to vote in was Clinton in '96. This is like the triumph of the
00:42:55
West and capitalism. You had a very robust economy in the 1990s. You had a lot of growth. Um and by the time you
00:43:05
get to your, you know, when the great recession hit, you know, I already had by a year, right? I already had a job. I
00:43:10
already had a foothold. I think the people kind of like born if you were in college when September
00:43:18
11th happened like that might be kind of the the cut point roughly speaking. It doesn't cut quite cleanly from Gen X
00:43:24
through millennials. It goes a few years into the millennials. Um but like sometimes I kind of joke it seems to be
00:43:30
like people like in their 40s through early 50s are like the only like sane people in the US, right? that
00:43:37
kind of like second half of of Gen X in particular, although we've never had a Gen X president. Kl Harris would have
00:43:44
been a boomer too, technically speaking. Um, but they're the people who are like,
00:43:47
okay, we grew up and we worked hard and we still felt like more or less the American system worked for us. I I think
00:43:56
people wrongly or rightly that are half a generation younger don't have that experience. Also, we should talk about
00:44:04
like as much as I think that in certain ways the media is an overrated story line, how people consume their news, um
00:44:12
you know, you look now at what's happening at CBS and Paramount or CNN or whatever else, right? We had an era
00:44:18
where you had very centralized news delivery systems under TV and radio. I know I sound like I'm dating myself. The
00:44:26
internet's been around for for a long time, but when you have three or four major networks that have a huge amount
00:44:32
of editorial control over the message and I used to work at the New York Times, right? You know, when I first got
00:44:38
there, you would still have like the page one meeting every day where it's like we are the people the editors of
00:44:42
the New York Times like deciding like what is news and what's not. And now it's become very decentralized.
00:44:49
Obviously, social media plays a role in that too. I think the evidence is pretty
00:44:52
decent that like uh phones and social media affect youth satisfaction a lot. You know, you also have a culture I
00:45:00
think among liberals where um where it's like no longer a stoic culture. It's a culture where maybe you might express
00:45:08
your grievance. Ironically, maybe AI will change this a little bit. there's some initial evidence that like the
00:45:15
models actually gravitate toward consensus views, expert opinion, sometimes a a jaded or hallucinated
00:45:24
version of what the consensus really is. Um, but you know, Claude or Chat GPT is
00:45:30
probably less polarizing than Blue Sky or Twitter. >> Let's talk about social media for a
00:45:35
second. It used to be a paradigm of you follow people, you build your filter, you have your list, you spend a lot of
00:45:40
time curating that and then Tik Tok comes out with their for you page FYP. YouTube goes full algorithm and now X
00:45:48
has gone basically full algorithm. You can follow whoever you like, but your follower count is not your viewer count
00:45:54
and engagement count. And obviously after Elon took over Twitter, libs, a lot of celebrities decided to leave.
00:46:02
Business people stayed. Lots of anonymous accounts. It's the free speech platform of all free speech platforms.
00:46:08
It's chaotic. But what impact just in that very tiny nuance of followers to algorithm has changed and impacted
00:46:18
politics because it feels like the filter bubble is becoming incredibly pronounced man. You you give two or
00:46:24
three things alike and now that's the rest of your entire day. >> Yeah. Look, for me, I don't think a
00:46:30
person should have a correlated stance on taxes and abortion and and Gaza and, you know, the free market and whatever
00:46:38
else. Um, partisanship is a very powerful force to squish this very complicated array of political issues we
00:46:46
have in the United States on into into just one dimension, blue versus red or left versus right. And social media,
00:46:54
Twitter in particular, I think, is a very effective mechanism for that. And I get I get totally yelled at for um any
00:47:01
bit of heterodoxy like in particular like saying Biden is obviously too old. Democrats you're going to you're going
00:47:06
to lose unless you replace him. Like that even though it's a stance that like literally 80% of voters agree with will
00:47:14
make you like seem like a heretic on Twitter. I've been critical by the way of of parts of what Elon has done.
00:47:21
Although some of the things predate him like the algorithmic feed um wasn't purely invented by email on it was
00:47:27
improved or perfected or worsened depending on your point of view by the current regime. You know I do think it's
00:47:32
a problem that like look if I choose to follow an account you Jason or the New York Times or whatever else or Nick's
00:47:38
account I want to see their tweets without having to give the algorithm an additional signal like that part bothers
00:47:42
me. I don't like the depreciation Twitter debates about. >> That's incredibly frustrating. Like, you
00:47:47
literally have to favorite or like things in order to keep them in your feed. And I told the Twitter team, you
00:47:52
should have a little button on the follow. Show me every post from this person. Like, if I want to get my Ski
00:47:58
Mountains reports or I want my Knicks fan TV, I want every single post. And there's no way to do that except like
00:48:04
every post and then your feed just goes off the rails. >> Mhm. Yeah. I mean, it's very I look, I
00:48:10
actually think the for you algorithm is pretty decent for what it is. You do have to train it. Like, you know, for a
00:48:16
while, I got a bunch of like fight videos cuz they're compelling. You see like a fight of teenagers and like, oh,
00:48:20
I'm I spent 8 minutes watching this or whatever else, right? >> If you click don't show me this anymore,
00:48:28
it is pretty responsive and is pretty good. Like the algorithm knows right now, I just want to read tweets about
00:48:33
the World Cup and is Jiannis getting traded, right? and maybe a little bit about the New York and California
00:48:38
elections. Um, but I wish there were like, you know, I I don't like any algorithm that like presumes it's like
00:48:46
smarter than the user and if I if I log in or if I subscribe to somebody and I want to see their tweets and I haven't
00:48:52
muted them, then show me their tweets. You can mix in things that you think I'll like. Breaking the algorithmic or
00:48:58
the time, the chronological feed is also annoying to me, right? Like I want um if
00:49:03
I'm watching the World Cup and there's a tweet about a match from 6 hours ago, someone's like, "Oh my god, amazing."
00:49:09
Right? I'm like, "What just happened?" And like it's not surfacing things in quite the right order. Um look, I think
00:49:15
a lot of companies kind of make the mistake of uh Twitter was I'm not sure if Twitter was ever going to be like a
00:49:21
hugely profitable company. It was a very unique resource for following the news if like I am and like you guys are at
00:49:30
least you Jason are a like total news addict like it was a very unique platform and
00:49:35
>> I wish that functionality had been preserved again to be fair >> um this started before Elon although has
00:49:44
been continued since >> let's wrap on 2028 and in particular Gavin Newsome >> oh no predictions for the midterms
00:49:51
predictions for the midterms Lightning prediction for the >> midterms house and senate predictions.
00:49:55
What does the data tell us right now? >> So we'll have a model out within a few weeks. Been a little bit delayed by the
00:50:00
World Cup and the redistricting stuff. Prediction markets say Democrats are around I think 80 or 85% to take the
00:50:06
House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me.
00:50:11
I think if anything it's a little bit low on the House. Um I think it might be more like 85 or 90. My models surprise
00:50:18
me sometimes, but like look, we have been through a lot of elections that are inherently hard to forecast. The House
00:50:24
is the one where everything kind of points in the same direction. Democrats um are facing a very unpopular
00:50:30
president, an economy that voters have a lot of anxiety about. Trump, no new Middle Eastern wars. On top of that, the
00:50:37
very very long history of the president's party drawing a backlash and performing poorly at the midterms, the
00:50:45
more recent history of incumbent backlash in the US and all around the world, the good results Democrats in
00:50:51
like New Jersey and Virginia last year and special elections. You know, look, the redistricting thing helps the GOP a
00:50:58
little bit in the end, but you're fighting against a lot of gravity, whereas the Senate is more of a more of
00:51:04
a numbers game. Even in a pretty blue environment, Democrats have to win some seats in red states. It seems to me that
00:51:12
taking a big risk in Maine, which is a state that by all rights they ought to win in a D plus8 year and a D plus 10
00:51:19
state, but Grand Platner is only two points ahead of Susan Collins. I think I take that polling at face value. I think
00:51:25
he is I take him in at 50/50, but like that's a unnecessary risk potentially. Um but look um the GOP will be able to
00:51:34
in these red states a candidate like Terar Rico who is also probably in roughly a toss-up race and and Paxton is
00:51:40
a far less than ideal Republican nominee like partisanship is still a powerful force. people are saying why are they
00:51:47
kind of attacking Telerico on I think things that are are not above board you know critiquing his sexuality or
00:51:54
whatever else cuz Texas is like a really red state like Trump's not popular so you're like you're kind of going for
00:52:00
like the lowest common denominator but in our system that works a fair amount of the time so it's just a a a polling
00:52:07
and math and numbers game in the Senate we're going to see more money spent than
00:52:11
ever whereas the house 435 seats I think the partisan gravity is more likely than
00:52:16
not just too much for Trump to overcome. >> Is there anything that Trump can do or
00:52:22
that could change in a macro out of our control perspective that could shift things more significantly for the House
00:52:29
back to the Republicans >> if he can get gas prices down? It's such a visible indicator. You drive by the
00:52:35
Chevron station, whatever else, right? You you literally see it. You know, I think if you look at forecast, there is
00:52:41
supposed to be some abatement, but very contingent on how long the conflict war in Iran persists in this quagmire. Um,
00:52:51
you know, look, maybe if we uh maybe if we have a a right by by in October or something, who knows what happens then?
00:52:59
But no, it's his unfavorable ratings are very entrenched and Democrats are very enthusiastic despite their misgivings
00:53:08
about their own party and as much difficult as I think they'll have in 2028 nominating a candidate to vote for
00:53:14
your generic Democrat against a generic Republican is a pretty easy ask for for Democrats who feel like democracy on the
00:53:20
line and like and like so I think that's fairly baked in as someone who builds models. I don't been on poss. I've been
00:53:27
on sports, but I'm always aware that like, yeah, there's the 10% chance that the underdog you never see coming
00:53:33
prevails. You know, Cape Verie ties with Spain or something. But like that's pretty fundamentally driven. Whereas on
00:53:41
the on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss
00:53:48
up. probably probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly
00:53:55
50/50 or maybe maybe 60% GOP >> the chance of winning both is that you know 80 time 40 type situation and
00:54:02
you're or is it different because of politics and and the way the statistics work
00:54:08
correlated? Yeah. >> Yeah. >> They're they're almost perfectly correlated. So if the odds of Democrats
00:54:13
winning the Senate but not the House are like are like 1%. And if you go to Cali
00:54:17
or Poly Market, whatever else, they have to be like around 1%. So condition on Democrats winning the Senate, they'll
00:54:23
almost certainly have won the House. They'll almost certainly have won governorships, which by the way, these
00:54:30
things are important. You know, I think people probably focus too much on the national picture and not enough on on
00:54:35
what happens at the state level where people actually have executive power and you're picking the the candidates and
00:54:39
the policies for the next generation. State legislatores are important. If I were talking to all the listeners,
00:54:46
right, I'd say look for like a a city council candidate for whom your contribution might make a lot of
00:54:52
difference. But like no, if Democrats win the Senate, that means it's a really blue year to overcome the fact that
00:54:57
you're winning in places like Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and if that happens, therefore probably the rest of it. All
00:55:03
the dominoes fall that way. >> All right, Gavin Newsome in 2028. He's an enigma of a politician, worstrun
00:55:10
state in the union as far as I'm concerned, but he's so polished and he speaks so well and people seem to like
00:55:17
him with that great hair. What should we take from Gavin Newsome's, you know, continued ascension? Am I
00:55:24
correct that he's still, you know, on the up? >> He's not. So, we have an article up on
00:55:29
Silver Bulletin, which we'll publish shortly after we finish this podcast. Newsome has fallen in Democratic primary
00:55:35
polls from around 25% to 15%. He's fallen on poly market from like 33% to 22% or something. I think he was
00:55:45
benefiting from some degree of name recognition. Whereas now Democrats see a candidate like John Oaf in Georgia um
00:55:53
another good-looking young guy but like actually has a credential which will never have of having won an election in
00:56:00
a purple state. Um and being a younger fresher face like whatever you say about Graham Platner and Janet Mills in Maine
00:56:09
I think Mills in the abstract might have been the face safer choice. I think it's
00:56:13
good that Democrats are showing a bias toward younger candidates, right? Like that's a lot of what happened with
00:56:20
Zoran, too. You know, I wouldn't discount, by the way, someone like an AOC. I'm not sure if she'll run. Someone
00:56:26
like Chuck Schumer might be very vulnerable in the 2028 primary, for example, she has a lot of time to wait,
00:56:32
but like I could see like I again in New York, it's New York, so therefore you can't extrapolate too much from New
00:56:37
York. However, people saying we are sick and tired of the Democratic establishment. I'll take a more septous
00:56:43
version or a more leftwing version, but not the same. I think ultimately Nuome has like a a hard argument to make. He's
00:56:49
argued for continuity with Kla Harris and Joe Biden. He's embracing Joe Biden when that strategy has failed
00:56:57
electorally. I would argue in California governance-wise as well. It to me it's like a I think Newsome is actually
00:57:04
>> in a pretty defensive position and that's why you see him >> having Hunter Biden or something on his
00:57:10
podcast. Yeah. Yeah. And AOC is now 36 years old, so she qualifies. You're you're saying it's not a zero chance
00:57:17
that she could become the equivalent of Trump, the outsider or the burn it down,
00:57:22
the I'm sick and tired vote. >> She's my She's my bet. Yeah. >> That's your bet. Okay. What do you
00:57:28
think, Nate? Let's talk about AOC. She got that possibility with her charisma. >> We've seen in states like Maine, we may
00:57:34
see this in Michigan as well, where Yeah. I mean, um, look, for many years in the Republican primary, the notion
00:57:41
was that the establishment always won out. That you'd have like the Rick Santorums or Sarah Palins or Herman
00:57:48
Kanes or whatever else who would get 40% of the vote, but the same country club establishment types we talked about at
00:57:54
the top of the show would prevail at the end of the day. And then it doesn't take
00:57:58
that much of perpetually growing dissatisfaction or generational ter like young people in general like don't
00:58:05
understand like why the would I care about like a party brand anyway like the Democratic party brand is like a a lame
00:58:12
brand as certainly the GOP is. Um, interesting. And so if you're an avatar for that brand then like you know I look
00:58:20
I think the best candidates even Obama in 2008 obviously not even Obama Obama was a highly effective one of the you
00:58:27
know generationally charismatic candidate but even he combined on the one hand positioning to the left of
00:58:34
Clinton on issues like Iraq. On the other hand, he had a whole whatever we have gay sisters in blue states and red
00:58:41
states and we play little league in the blue states and like that whole like postpartisan rhetoric. I think the most
00:58:46
effective candidates can exactly what he is. He has made some efforts. I mean he
00:58:50
had Charlie Kirk on his podcast. I think it was last year, right? He has tried to
00:58:54
moderate. I mean he's against the billionaire tax. Um he's tried to moderate on some of the culture war
00:59:00
issues like nominated a institutional candidate from California. She didn't come that far from winning, but she lost
00:59:07
all the swing states by by, you know, two to five points. And like I don't believe at the end of the day, the
00:59:13
Democrats will be persuaded that like, oh, just cuz you're white and you have different anatomy like that that that
00:59:18
one that every Democrat was terrified by in 2024. >> All right, an hour with our guy Nate
00:59:24
Silver. Let us know what you think in the comments. We will have you back on when we do our live election coverage
00:59:31
for sure if you're available. And the audience always loves when you go. >> He gets paid a lot on that night. J I
00:59:36
don't think he's coming on all >> whatever. I mean he's a fan of the He's a fan of all win. Everyone's like he's
00:59:41
part of the family. Oh, come in the next day. Whatever. Whenever you're not securing the bag to secure more Nicks
00:59:46
ticket for our repeat next year. Everybody go right now if you hear my voice to the silver bulletin. Pop out a
00:59:52
Hyundai and subscribe. You're going to love >> 95 bucks. Jason, >> that's what I round it up to a Hyundai.
00:59:58
But yeah, listen. I know that you've probably done the metrics. 94.97 is the right number for the guy at the
01:00:04
door. Five bucks for the guy at the door. >> Whatever. A little bit off the top. It's
01:00:08
all good. And uh yeah, everybody go to Poly Market, place some bets. Our favorite partner, Nate's favorite
01:00:13
partner. And uh yeah, we'll see you all next time on the All-In Interview Show. >> Thanks.
01:00:19
>> Great job, Nate. You rock. Thank you so much. That was awesome. I'm going all in.