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is is jkl here i can't see him maybe i've been blocked i don't know i'm getting static on the left i can't hear
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anything i can't hear you why do the two fat guys have to ruin everything i mean get your [ __ ] together youtube we
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have [Music] [Music] if you'd like to skip the bestie twitter drama and get right into the episode
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jump to 20 minutes and 48 seconds hey everybody hey everybody we've got a great show for you today
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what a treat this is going to be here at the all in podcast we cover everything technology business
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market politics science and of course the besties emotions and their feelings i'm dave friedberg the king of canola
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joining me today are the guys that used to be besties first joining us from berlusconi's
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palace the pied piper of spaxx himself welcome you look great today thank you and
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uh from one of his many houses the uh sas bully himself david sax and of course our former moderator and host the one
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and only the internet famous the bronx bully jason calacanis everybody j-cal welcome you're looking great you
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look like you're ready to do a little uh jabbing a hook so for those of you joining us today that haven't been
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following on twitter i'm sorry did you get kermit the frog to host the show i mean
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jesus christ that opening was the worst most painful thing i've ever heard it it really was not very good okay well
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welcome sax and j cal not really feeling great about this you can't it's a failed experiment
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already i thought the opening was good good job free bird i think you're doing well it's a [ __ ]
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four of 10. stop pre-judging his performance it just began and interrupting already
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stop interrupting stop interrupting calcaneus so the moderator is moderating and j
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cal has to take the money the dreamers and block him i'm gonna mute him thank you
00:02:30
so gentlemen welcome as we know over the past week there has been a twitter feud between jason
00:02:36
and um david sacks and i'm going to give you guys a little bit of this background
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for those of you who haven't followed online which i'm assuming is the vast majority of you
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but there's a twitter account called all in stats and they publish an analysis showing
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that j cal has been talking a lot on our podcast and saks uh you know kind of quote
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tweeted and said you know here is statistical proof of jason's piss-poor moderation of
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the all-in-pod j-cal if you were moderating correctly you would be fourth place in airstein
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enter airtime instead of tied for first your job is to facilitate discussion not
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dominate it stop interrupting and let the grown-ups talk j-cal immediately jumps up with a
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response maybe you could start your own pod with peter thiel and keith or boyce and have tucker carlson moderate
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sac says i know it's rough doing 10 years of this week in startups and never getting to number one
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then chamoth friedrich and i do it effectively on the first date on the first take
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but this is why you need to stick to your lane and stop talking over us oh my god so
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brutal sex jay cal then responds with a niche podcast about just startups is never gonna be number one
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it's not for a general audience like all in by design number two sure trash the guy
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who has relentlessly supported you for decades because you're obsessed with your stats and forget about the quality
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of the conversation then j cal blocks david sacks on twitter publicly sax tells everyone jay cal blocked him
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and this whole thing escalates and snowball so the besties have they broken up are they gonna get back together is this
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podcast gonna continue my mom sent me a text this morning has the pod disintegrated jason pulled
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out question mark question mark question mark the drama ensues so gentlemen um i leave it to you saks with your
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opening remarks and then j-cal you may respond i'm here to moderate this opening of
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today's all-in pod so we can kind of get past this and hopefully get the besties
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back together and continue our conversations that i think many people find valuable
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and are super helpful and useful for us and for our listeners saks please well i mean i i can see on
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jason's face that he's he's hurt that by my my tweets um you know i uh maybe he should go
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first and explain what's so hurtful i mean look the reality is about this show that you know breaking balls is part of
00:04:56
it we've been doing it for you know a year and a half and nobody does it more than jason and
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then all of a sudden you know he's on the receiving end of a couple of mean tweets and he's like the
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schoolyard bully who finally gets popped in the nose and goes running to the teacher
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and he can't stop bawling so you know where is it that somehow the word piss-poor crossed a red line for
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you after all of the you know ball busting you've been doing for the last year that
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somehow that's out of bounds and now you're gonna block me and potentially end the show in our
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friendship so explain that to me big baby all right number one i want to talk about the statistics in
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my role on my perception of you david is that you got a taste of fame and celebrity and it's gone to your
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[ __ ] head and you're out of your ego is out of control you now have stopped doing your job
00:06:02
every day and you are obsessed with your statistics and how you're perceived on the pod
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as seen by your obsession and your bromance with henry or harvey bell cast or whatever you're sitting
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there obsessing over what percentage each of us talk none of the other besties are reading all in stats
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or getting obsessed with henry belcaster and how they're perceived on the pod you have taken a championship show
00:06:32
which i pulled together with my decades of experience in team as the point god i am the chris paul
00:06:41
of moderating the reason this show is number one is because i created a super team
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there are four people on this podcast who bring a lot to the table and you have asked for decades for air
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cow i will not pull out a list but the time that you were going to get cancelled because of b
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and the other time that your company was in the beep because the beep was investigating it
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you called air cow you called an air cow you can't deny it and nobody has benefited more from my skills in
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media than you are are you speaking in an accent i'm not speaking in an accident i'm
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getting uh this is when i get upset what he's getting for he's getting for clubs he's controlling it okay i'm just
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bringing the ball up court and i [ __ ] pass the ball to everybody i am white chocolate on this team i am
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the professor i am chris paul okay and i pass the ball now if you want to be a point guard like me and throw crisp
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passes that make the audience laugh and make them cheer and bring down the whole goddamn stadium
00:07:59
well sometimes i'm going to do a no-look pass it's going to hitch in the back of
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the head or it's going to bounce off you can't [ __ ] cry about it constantly david and if you're looking
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at the minutes i have to read the story and prep the story so i can put it in your lap
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which i love to do i love my role here and you're taking my min account which is at least two-thirds moderation
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and you're saying that's indicative of me being pissed poor now if it's all a goddamn joke that's fine but you're
00:08:29
messing with my business my business is podcasting and performing if you got a problem with me as the
00:08:36
moderator you have my [ __ ] phone number you can call me but don't go out and start some fight
00:08:43
with me and then go start hanging out with henry belcaster when i'm your boy okay and then
00:08:48
everything with you is about your call-in clubhouse killer and we've got to move the pond to that
00:08:55
you're getting out of control david you need to realize we started a podcast that went to number
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one instantly and be grateful about that and stay the course the end i'm done well all right good all
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right so can i respond so first of all j cal i agree you put the the super team together for this
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pod you're an indispensable part of it i'm not questioning that you know i don't think we should
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i don't think well let me come to let the adults talk let me first uh let me i'm actually saying some positive
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things about you before i get into my uh critique okay so look you deserve credit for putting this
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thing together along with with chamoth uh it wouldn't be the same without you you
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do bring an element of entertainment to it uh lord knows if it was just freeburg moderating all the
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time it'd probably be extremely boring so um look i although we're gonna give him a chance today so who knows
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um but rough start and it's not that i was angry or upset or concerned about my air time or any of that stuff
00:09:57
i was frustrated okay because your moderation i have a couple of um concerns about her
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or i guess complaints okay one is that you do tend to interrupt and i'd say you interrupt not true
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more than the others false okay and specifically not true let's talk about the issue the the issue
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where this came up was eric adams issue last pod okay so you didn't even go to me this this issue
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the eric adams issue is all about the crime issue what the audience doesn't know is that
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you went to chamath like three times then you moved on and we had to come back i said no listen i raised my hand
00:10:33
to get back into the conversation we edited that part out you skipped over me completely i don't
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know how that was good passing where was the dish okay to me okay let me explain to you can i respond
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to that sure you've got three people on the team who can score i come down the court
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i pass it sometimes there's two open guys you're the guy who was open who didn't
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get the pass and now you're walking down the court complaining no instead of keeping your head in the game
00:11:03
this would be like not going to freeburg on a science issue all right sorry i understand
00:11:08
any chance for you to defend the cops beating up criminals i understand that's your wheelhouse no time when it comes to
00:11:16
that i'll make sure i it would it would be it would be a concern i agree with you i agree with you it's
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an oversight i can't hit every perfect pass you're expecting perception so then it's a missed pass and now you're upset
00:11:27
about it okay okay so then so then i basically say listen i want to talk to this issue i have three points
00:11:32
to make i'm not through point number two before you're interrupting me and taking the
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ball away the specific reason why i said i have three points is to telegraph to you
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don't interrupt me [ __ ] i got three points to make okay what do you do you cut me off in the middle of point two
00:11:47
how is that good moderation i don't think you do that to chamof or even freeburg this really is about
00:11:53
this really is about chamath versus you and my relationship with each other i love you both
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the reason why i brought up the all-in stats okay is not cause i'm concerned about my air time but but to show you
00:12:04
i'm a little concerned no because i i they broke down that i was like fourth in their time and so the
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only point about that is why are you giving me the hook when i'm not talking too much
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if i were talking too much if i were monologuing it'd be a whole different story
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but you're yanking the mic away from me in the mid sentence before i even had a chance to finish
00:12:23
and there's and there's one more thing okay which is as soon as i bring up any concern
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with the moderation where do you go you start calling me tucker you know you start labeling me in
00:12:33
this way okay it's like just like a year dinner with tucker in the world you're proving my point where do you go
00:12:40
where are you joke yes but why i'm trying to keep the show entertaining and keep it moving
00:12:45
part of keeping the show entertaining moving is keeping you guys from monologuing
00:12:49
i have to cut you off and make jokes a year and a half ago at the beginning of the pod we had to
00:12:54
have the last time we had a sort of session like this it was because you kept trying to paint me
00:13:00
as the trump supporter which is not my agenda okay now did you vote for trump now you're trying
00:13:05
to hang did you tuck her label on me why aren't you saying hey let's hear from george will let's hear from william
00:13:10
buckley the reason why you're choosing those labels is because you know they are anathema to most people in
00:13:17
silicon valley and you're trying to stigmatize me with them no that is you're trying to are you
00:13:22
reading from your notes are you reading from you're trying to hang that album over my neck
00:13:27
okay and that is you're trying to anatomize me in in the in the view of most people
00:13:32
silicon valley you're calling that's not what i'm trying to do i'm trying to tell me but you are
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causing the audience to pre-judge my message my points before i've even had the chance to
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see what i'm trying to do by attacking i'm trying to make a joke of the left to me okay the result of
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that is the audience is going to prejudge what i have to say and probably a third of the audience
00:13:51
will never want to hear what i have to say because you've pre-labeled and pre-judged me that is a serious
00:13:56
problem and that is [ __ ] with my business that is [ __ ] with my business a lot
00:14:00
more a lot more than me calling out your shitty moderation on one show oh sorry no it is
00:14:06
shitty moderation oh okay i thought it was great now we're back to a big shitty moderation let me ask you you know what
00:14:12
you're doing did you know what you're doing did you have photography you know what you're doing have you had
00:14:16
dinner with tucker answer the question i'm going to mute both of you now okay i'm in the moderator do you want to
00:14:22
weigh in on these two idiots and talk a little bit about how we can do this show
00:14:25
forward and at this point i'm thinking about vetoing the publication of the show so
00:14:29
we could just have this conversation offline this was this is so [ __ ] pod because
00:14:33
this is just this was paint this was this was so stupid nick edit all this nonsense and
00:14:38
make it 30 seconds and move on hey guys this is a really important powerful thing that we accidentally stumbled into
00:14:47
i'll make two points david does get labeled and i don't think it's fair and jason
00:14:52
does an excellent job of moderating and sometimes i think that jason does get excited and in
00:14:58
getting excited you know he's also not just there to moderate he's there to contribute as well
00:15:03
and so i think that if you look at the the number of minutes as a guide it's not going to be accurate because he does
00:15:10
have two jobs to do whereas the rest of us only have one and david does bring an enormous amount
00:15:16
of clarity to what he says in a very fair way and it is unfair to him that he gets
00:15:22
basically slathered with uh here's the crazy guy on the right so i think what i would just say is just
00:15:28
let's just tone it the [ __ ] down and calm down okay we're at a million [ __ ] people a
00:15:33
week we could be at 10 million people a [ __ ] week and we could [ __ ] own the distribution of our ideas to
00:15:40
millions and millions of people let's just stay the course and calm the [ __ ] down well i i agree with all that
00:15:46
actually i i agree i'm 100 in agreement i want to address the labeling issue i want to
00:15:51
address the legal issue i am joking nine out of ten times when i talk about trump
00:15:55
because it's hilarious and your relationship with tucker i think it's hilarious that you're part of the keith
00:16:00
reboy and and teal thing and and i don't think it's damaging for your business at all
00:16:05
and i think people are telling me i'm purple viewed we're moving to the center here
00:16:09
so i believe that we're doing something noble by bringing all these voices together
00:16:13
it's all a big joke and you know what i don't care what you say about me on twitter
00:16:17
i know i'm good at what i do there's nothing you could say that can change that why'd your accident change
00:16:24
i i think in general you are good at what you do and i and i and the reason why two of the top 10
00:16:30
tech podcasts go open at your [ __ ] podcast player don't tell me to get my [ __ ] shoe
00:16:34
shirt number four and number eight no nobody's saying that so i think i think what
00:16:40
what david's literally what he said that's literally what he said what he's doing right now is showing why i had to
00:16:45
tweet which is he won't take a note i can't tell the guy hey listen you gotta know for me
00:16:51
it's not gonna happen on twitter you got my [ __ ] phone number well it doesn't happen in private either
00:16:55
we know that you could [ __ ] call me oh really you're gonna take a note in private chat with you
00:17:01
i've tried we've had this conversation before we had this specific conversation about the trump thing a year ago
00:17:07
we haven't talked about trump in six months you're back to all your bad habits can we just hear an apology from one to
00:17:14
the other and tell them yeah yeah i'm absolutely willing to hear sax's apology tell him what you appreciate
00:17:19
about him and what you like about him go ahead yeah go [ __ ] christ is this therapy all
00:17:23
right i unblocked [ __ ] sacks and i'm following him enough thank you move on we move forward
00:17:28
apologize to each other all right sorry you tweeted that [ __ ] sex i'm sorry david apologize to him let's just move
00:17:35
on jason tell sacks you're sorry for labeling him and you know you'll be more conscientious in
00:17:40
the future please i'm sorry that i brought up your relationship with tucker and that i labeled you
00:17:47
a trump disciple i don't even need an apology i just want him to recognize me too so i'm trying to
00:17:55
be the bigger man [ __ ] it i take it back okay i unblocked you and you're followed
00:18:00
i unblocked you and you're followed that's enough sex his feelings were hurt by you telling
00:18:04
him that his podcast sucks and piss poor piss-poor okay look you asked you asked me to have ten of your
00:18:11
founders on the podcast in the last two years i counted your team is in the [ __ ] mix trying to get
00:18:16
people booked on the show we're not gonna we're not gonna keep it going you've benefited from this relationship
00:18:21
as well so thank you for this i never said i didn't thank you all i've ever said is thank
00:18:25
you to you all right we good look my frustration over your moderation boiled off into a
00:18:32
couple of tweets last week i did not mean to hurt your feelings i was just trying to give you a
00:18:37
note okay if you would take the notes in private i would give you them to you in
00:18:41
private i do think that overall you're a great moderator your contribution to the show is
00:18:48
absolutely necessary and essential never disputed that i think we should keep doing the show
00:18:54
um i didn't expect you to block me honestly i didn't expect your feelings to be so hurt by what i said and um
00:19:01
so yeah look i apologize for that all i wanted to do was give you a note and i would appreciate if you could try
00:19:07
and respect my note not mischaracterize it i think you know what i'm saying right
00:19:12
i just want the chance to be able to present my views without the audience prejudging them
00:19:16
because you know that certain labels will not go over well with our audience okay it'd be like introducing chamoth as
00:19:24
the michael milken of spaxx okay there is that out no i mean i'm not saying he is
00:19:31
collaborating no i'm saying it would be as if you did that right you understand what you've
00:19:37
been doing if you labeled him that way i don't think that is a fair label in fairness i thought the labeling and
00:19:44
the joking about you being the token republican was a meta joke about the fact that
00:19:48
silicon valley doesn't have too many of you and teals and reboys et cetera there's a
00:19:52
small i think the whole point of what we were trying to say is silicon valley's heads up their ass
00:19:57
i agree so maybe so maybe the problem maybe the problem we've we've identified is
00:20:01
all these left-leaning people are just sniffing their own balls basically running to a cliff sweating so
00:20:08
yeah a lot of my views like on free speech are the old center left exactly and now you're for
00:20:13
universal healthcare look at you i haven't moved the whole world's gone crazy i mean
00:20:18
everyone supported free speech until five minutes ago okay that's what i went on tucker to discuss you were a free
00:20:23
market about uh education and you were free market about about health care and now you're like i
00:20:28
mean we should have health care and safety i i am i am a believer in in markets all
00:20:32
right jason let's start go let's [ __ ] start the shot three two hey everybody hey everybody the all-in
00:20:37
podcast is back besties unblocked with us again the rain man himself david sachs and david freeburg the queen
00:20:46
of and from his italian hideaway gallivanting in italy chamoth paulie hepatia the
00:20:57
dictator big news for besties this week robin hood has filed their s1 and paid a fin
00:21:06
refined 70 million dollars for outages and misleading customers multiple days of outages back
00:21:11
in march 2020 we talked about here and poor communications around options trading risks
00:21:18
robin hood's s1 highlighted some extraordinary uh growth during that period as we
00:21:24
discussed on the pod 18 million funded accounts and they're on a two billion dollar run rate 522
00:21:33
million dollars in revenue in the first quarter up 4x and uh monthly active users have more
00:21:39
than doubled 8.6 million accounts to 17.7 million uh just for in the last year revenue is
00:21:45
up 300 percent any thoughts on robin hood's s1 obviously i'm an interested party
00:21:52
it's the largest fine ever i think of this type but on the other end yeah yeah so it
00:21:57
should be a black eye for the company but the reality is that they're happy to pay the fine and
00:22:01
just move on so they don't have this issue hanging over their heads anymore and now they're going to be able to
00:22:06
ipo at like a 50 60 70 billion dollar valuation and so for them it's just sort of cost
00:22:11
of doing business i think there's something a little bit off about that but um that's kind of how
00:22:16
it works freeberg anything i mean congrats to you jake how looks like you're gonna
00:22:20
do really well with this deal huh it will return roughly this one dl will do three or
00:22:27
four times the value of the first fun the launch fund one which was uh 11 million did you invest in the seed
00:22:33
round or the a or what round did you invest in i think it was the seed round um and so
00:22:38
what's your multiple going to be on a 50 billion dollar market cap you know uh it would be 500x
00:22:47
amazing amazing congrats big boy yeah it's a congrats jake allen i'm happy to see that you're successful
00:22:54
your success is finally catching up to your ego and so i think here we go your net worth is catching up to your
00:23:06
weight size congrats oh my god uh well actually between this and the composition
00:23:12
uh i'm uh you know listen it's a long way to go before we distribute obviously but that first fund i did which came
00:23:19
after the scouts fun my sequoia scouts portfolio my only advice to you jason is talk talk to a few seasoned gps like
00:23:24
gurley fred wilson and figure out the right distribution strategy one of the biggest
00:23:28
things that i see these folks do is early-stage venture investors thinking that they're public market investors
00:23:35
trying to time the market trying to figure out how to do distributions and it never works
00:23:39
which means do you hold the shares for another year or two or you distribute them i would
00:23:44
distribute that immediately book the win move on yeah you know it's interesting a lot of
00:23:49
the top firms that i'm in are holding their shares and i i had a firm that had uh
00:23:54
square and they held some number of them until it's 7xed and then distributed so
00:23:59
i guess technically they get to book that win what are your thoughts on that sax of
00:24:04
when to distribute and how are you doing in your fund yeah i mean it's a good question um the
00:24:09
the reality is that you know let's say that you're in your four or five a 10-year fund you
00:24:14
could hold the shares for another five years and if the shares go up over that five
00:24:19
year period you'll you'll do better so i think the question is on irr your your numbers will look better well
00:24:26
i mean you're you're compensated on the absolute amount of return that you generate and so it might
00:24:31
happen if you distribute the shares and then if you're in carry and you just hold the shares you'll realize the same
00:24:36
gains you know you're not saying well it depends what happens to the stock price
00:24:39
i guess i guess what i'm going to do but hold on a second if the stock were to go 10x and you get 20
00:24:43
of those shares if there were 100 shares you had 20 if it 10x you're still getting 20 percent right shamaf
00:24:48
so it nets out to the same if you hold the shares yourself personally this is why
00:24:51
i think that if you're in the business of running uh a multi-fund business i think you're better off
00:24:57
generally and i think again if you talk to the best firms out there they typically will not try to guess
00:25:04
what's going to happen in the public markets they distribute and they move on to their next fund
00:25:08
um and then because you have to remember the irrs you know you go through these rough patches it decays quickly
00:25:14
and all of a sudden something that looks great can start to look not so great and the example of that might be
00:25:19
snowflake or something going down after it went public and if you had distributed it you would
00:25:24
have booked the win at that high multiple yeah and then then you're thinking to yourself wow i hope it goes back up and
00:25:29
then you're like well when do i distribute it's all these are all not things that venture
00:25:33
capitalists should be engaged in they should be there to help build the next the next david versus goliath
00:25:37
i think the the count argument to that is if you really believe in the company and think you
00:25:41
understand it better than the public markets do or or because you've been on the board
00:25:45
and you have information you know if you hold it for another yes there's gonna be ups and downs but
00:25:50
let's say that you plan to hold it for another four or five years um yeah you'll still get the same 20 25
00:25:56
carry but um the point at which that carry will crystallize would be at like a much
00:26:00
higher level and so essentially you're preventing your lp's from selling is what you're doing and so you may get
00:26:06
an extra turn of your fun by doing that how do we feel as lps david freeburg but
00:26:12
there's sorry there's also isn't there like a um i'm just trying to pull up the goldman sachs report they
00:26:17
did in 2019 where they analyzed 4 500 ipos over a 25-year period and i think that and i could be wrong on
00:26:27
this but if i remember some summary of this i'm trying to find it so i can't find it right now um
00:26:31
but that they basically highlighted that ipos as an index generally outperformed
00:26:37
the market over some period of time whether it's one year or three years and so if you have access to those ipo shares
00:26:43
assume you're a venture investor you can beat the smp by 10 15 points just generally without having any
00:26:50
thought about the business itself or the company itself um and you know participate in 20
00:26:55
carry on the upside from there or 25 carrying the upside from there um and so generally the rule of thumb
00:27:01
becomes well you shouldn't distribute right away you should hold is that not kind of a common dogma amongst gps
00:27:07
nowadays well look at square look at square i mean square at all like most of the appreciation
00:27:13
happened in the public markets i think sequoia held on to their square shares did way way better
00:27:19
because nobody sold effectively for several years and the best firms do this right i mean
00:27:24
like you you hear from gurley and others that you know they hold onto these shares for
00:27:28
years and you know a good business going public has a much better chance of performing
00:27:35
well as a public company than you know just tracking the s p uh after an ipo regardless of the
00:27:40
valuation it exits at well how do we feel as lp's chamath your lp's in a lot of terrible women
00:27:46
15 terrible no offense to any gp out there but i don't think they're as good of a public market investor as i am so
00:27:52
give me the shares i'll manage it myself uh and get out of the way um i i give money to a lot of to your
00:28:00
point a lot of gps because i want private market exposure i don't want them speculating in the
00:28:06
public markets for me i do that for myself and so i would rather just get the shares and make my own decision
00:28:12
um you know a lot of foundations for example are in this situation where they're there to fund programs
00:28:18
so if they have a you know multi-hundred million dollar position in a great company
00:28:22
and they can't fund a program or the you know a hospital system can't do what they need to do because some gp is
00:28:28
speculating in the public markets i think it's insane so give you give give give the lps the
00:28:34
money and move on it's not your job otherwise you should run a generalized fund and both people don't because they
00:28:41
can't generally how do you guys when you are a large owner in a company that goes
00:28:46
public or just say the pool of venture investors or owners in a company that goes public
00:28:52
and the lock-up is expiring you know typically six months after the ipo and you can now distribute your shares to
00:28:57
your lps do those um you know investors take note of or have concern about the impact it might
00:29:05
have on the stock price when they're making those distribution decisions typically
00:29:08
i think they think about that but a lot of these lps particularly the non-profits
00:29:13
they're forced day one sellers the minute that they get the stock they're just putting it in like as soon as the
00:29:17
stock gets distributed everyone's selling and the stock takes a hit right and yeah
00:29:20
you know what there's something happening i mean uh this is speculation um that i don't have so just
00:29:28
you know take it as that but my understanding was some investment banks went to the uh and chamath might know the
00:29:35
background on this went to some of the major lps in the world i'll leave it at that
00:29:40
and said hey you have a position in i don't know this cab company um it's going public it's
00:29:46
fully valued or it's very well valued would you like to collar your shares before that and we will take them off
00:29:53
your hands uh and and and lock you into a certain price for some percentage of it
00:29:57
basically end running the gp's decision making process of course there's there's a lot of that
00:30:03
that happens this is why i'm saying i think the gp is better off if you're in the
00:30:06
venture fund business be in the venture fund business do a great job at that raise funds distribute cash do what
00:30:12
you're supposed to do but please don't try to do some it's kind of like asking you know the firemen to also operate on
00:30:17
you no i don't want that take me to the hospital and let the doctor do the job i think it's a very
00:30:22
valid perspective i think it's probably the baseline that vcs should operate from but i do think there are
00:30:27
exceptions where if the vc's been on a company board for a while it feels like they have
00:30:31
they understand the company better than the public markets especially during the
00:30:34
first two years as a public company when the markets can be really choppy and the company's
00:30:39
trying to find its level and people don't really understand it i think there is an argument for
00:30:44
the vc having expertise in in that initial public run then they might be doing their lp's a favor
00:30:50
by holding but but look i i think tomas point is well taken also uh companies are going public
00:30:57
earlier so this is going to become a bigger issue because it's an easy decision in year 11 if you
00:31:03
were an uber investor and airbnb investors say okay it's been 11 years we're going to give
00:31:07
you your shares but if you're in year five and the company goes out so early you know you could make an argument hey
00:31:14
maybe we hold it for two or three years just going back on the previous topic jkl the um
00:31:18
the finra news on robinhood right so finra just so everyone understands is not a
00:31:23
government regulator it's a entity yeah it's called a self-regulatory organization
00:31:28
and these sros are basically they have a board and a you know a bunch of people that run them
00:31:33
but they're pooled and managed by all the participants the private participants in the market so goldman
00:31:38
sachs and morgan stanley jp morgan and all the banks they are all part of the finra sro and
00:31:44
so the way that these sros are set up is to avoid government regulation and to avoid government
00:31:49
intervention in markets and allows the markets to effectively self-regulate themselves
00:31:54
in a way that everyone in the market is kind of keeping an eye on each other and
00:31:57
making sure that this is being taken care of and i think one thing to take note of from this fine
00:32:03
is that it telegraphs that finra and the markets in general the market participants in general
00:32:08
may be rather concerned and rather worried about government intervention um in some
00:32:14
of these new markets and emerging fintech practices because they wanted to say look we put
00:32:19
the gauntlet down on robin hood we made them pay the biggest fine ever we made them pay 70 million dollars
00:32:24
stay away we're taking care of it because the concern everyone's had is that aoc and elizabeth warren and a
00:32:29
bunch of people on capitol hill are waving flags saying we need to step in we need to regulate these companies
00:32:34
we need to regulate these practices we need to protect consumers and so this fine really signals that the
00:32:39
market is a bit concerned that the government is going to come in and start trying to tell fintech
00:32:45
companies how to practice and how to operate and generally tell all market company you know market
00:32:50
participants how to operate which is a very scary prospect for them so to me this was really this
00:32:55
this was really big news about what telegraphs the backdoor conversations are you know
00:32:59
that are going on with market participants right now what you're almost saying is that this is a benefit
00:33:05
to robin hood to pay the largest fine because it it says to the you know to the politicians look we've
00:33:10
already been punished in this you know maximal way you don't need to layer it on top
00:33:15
so in a way it's better for robin hood that they paid 70 million instead of 10 million
00:33:20
yeah and it's not it's not by the way it's not even for robin hood i think all the market participants jp morgan
00:33:24
goldman sachs they all have huge you know tech teams and they all have acquired fintech companies
00:33:30
and they are all trying to go digital and everyone is worried about the government intervening
00:33:35
and changing how this business is transforming because as soon as the government gets involved it's going to
00:33:39
slow down the transformation it's going to you know make things much more challenging
00:33:42
and i think that everyone's trying to keep the government at bay while the great digital transformation of markets
00:33:47
is underway um and and i think that's like the biggest signal from this this finra fine
00:33:53
and there's there's some interesting nuances there that they brought up something like the confetti so when you
00:33:59
buy something on robinhood it used to explode confetti gamification they're like oh we're going
00:34:05
to take that out and you know if you go to vegas they've got bells and whistles going off
00:34:09
everywhere when you place a bet and so it is a little bit of window dressing i think it's also interesting
00:34:15
that you bring up the self-regulatory organizations there's two other equivalents for people who are thinking
00:34:20
about this the mpa motion picture association which was formed back in 1922 because people had
00:34:26
the same fear about movies and valentini i think was the the guy who really uh changed uh how movies were perceived
00:34:35
in the pg-13 era allowing a lot more violence terminator those kind of movies and then you had a similar thing happen
00:34:42
in the video game industry in 90s does robinhood still have like the lawsuits with like
00:34:49
uh massachusetts uh there's like 10 other lawsuits class actions etc about um no no but these are more like
00:34:57
with with government entities right like like didn't massachusetts try to stay deter state attorney general
00:35:02
yeah something like that i think right yeah i don't know um but the other one that was very
00:35:08
interesting was the um esrb which is the entertainment software ratings board because video games like mortal kombat
00:35:14
and those and doom were you know had to self-regulate right um so either you regulate yourself
00:35:20
when champ was asking a question about lawsuits that robin hood i know i was trying to deflect
00:35:28
come on man can we move on to the delta variant because i'm supposed to be hysterically afraid of getting covet now
00:35:34
because i've been vaccinated people keep talking about there's this delta variant it's spreading
00:35:40
and then i'm hearing one set of information which is if you're vaccinated it's not an issue
00:35:45
and then uh other folks are going on tv saying this is gonna be like we're gonna have to put masks back
00:35:51
on in california i can't find any data about how many actual cases there are but
00:35:58
according to the usc dc 46 percent of the total u.s population has been vaccinated now
00:36:03
uh and new york new jersey california oh well above 50 some people are in the 60
00:36:07
percent of adults 70 of adults florida is still trailing but i can't and people are saying this is
00:36:13
going to become the dominant variant free break how should we look at the delta variant if you're vaccinated
00:36:18
and then how should we look at it in terms of are we going to go through mandatory masks again which people are
00:36:24
starting to signal already in certain uh coastal cities yeah so trevor bedford's a great guy to follow on this
00:36:32
uh he's a epidemiologist virologist who um on twitter on twitter yeah trv rb is his uh twitter handle and so he's
00:36:42
aggregated a bunch of good data so there was a paper published two days ago out of the uk
00:36:46
where they are trying to estimate the um uh you know the reproduction rate of the
00:36:52
delta variant um and it looks like it's about 1.3 that means for every person that gets infected with the delta
00:36:58
variant of the sars kobe 2 virus one that's the r knot you're talking about that's that's yeah some people call
00:37:04
arnold yeah and so um it turns out that you know that number is higher than what we saw with the
00:37:09
original south kobe 2 which i think is probably closer to 1.1 or so and so um you know what that means is
00:37:15
this variant is much more infectious right it could spread through the air the proteins could last in oxygen much
00:37:21
longer and not degrade all these different reasons why it might be kind of more infectious
00:37:26
and there are some cases of people that have been vaccinated but this is not the
00:37:30
predominance of what we're seeing that have tested positive for having this delta variant
00:37:35
but are having mild to moderate symptoms there aren't at this point a lot of people there's not a lot of data to
00:37:41
indicate that this is actually kind of like a lethal risk or fatal risk to people that have been vaccinated in case
00:37:46
in fact that seems to be not true and one way that that data is kind of demonstrated right now is
00:37:52
there was another analysis that was done where they showed what is the reproduction rate of this
00:37:57
variant based on what percentage of the population has been vaccinated by state and they showed that you know for a
00:38:04
state that's had maybe thirty percent of its population vaccinated the r naught is closer to one point
00:38:09
three five when sixty percent of the state is vaccinated the r naught is just at one
00:38:13
and so there's this you know um unco you know uh negatively correlated kind of relationship between how many people
00:38:19
have been vaccinated and how much this variant is transmitting and that makes intuitive sense right like if
00:38:24
people are vaccinated they're not going to get infected the virus isn't going to
00:38:27
hop from person to person to person now when you do the analysis of what percentage of the u.s population is
00:38:33
unvaccinated and how reproductive this virus is a lot of epidemiologists are saying that the models indicate that we
00:38:41
could see up to 10 percent of the u.s population now get hit with this variant and what we don't know is what
00:38:46
percentage of people actually had you know stars kobe 2 in the first run around last year
00:38:51
um but we are seeing this this variant pop up now the the fatality rate doesn't appear to be much higher
00:38:56
than what we saw with stars cov2 the first time around and um and so there's no indication to say like hey this is
00:39:02
going to be much more lethal so when you combine those factors it seems like at this point you know the
00:39:06
the death rates in the u.s are remaining flat uh and stable while we are going to see and may expect
00:39:12
to see a continuing upsurge surge up in terms of the number of cases are we going to require masks this goes
00:39:17
back to kind of my previous point about i think we've kind of normalized ourselves to masks and shutdowns and
00:39:23
lockdowns and all the stuff that we did last year thinking that it had an effect a recent
00:39:26
paper showed that lockdowns had no effect on the reproduction rate in the united
00:39:30
states because at the end of the day what if a government says lockdown or government says put masks on
00:39:35
people still have a tendency to do whatever the hell they want to do and at least in the united states that is the
00:39:39
case that is not the case likely in asian countries where we did see an effect of lockdowns and masks
00:39:44
but in the united states these uh these restrictions obviously had adverse economic effects
00:39:50
but didn't seem to have a strong epidemiological effect based on a recent paper that i will
00:39:56
share uh in this thing so so what are we going to do i don't know i feel like we've
00:39:59
normalized math we've normalized blocked we've normalized these responses but sars code v2 is going to be here forever
00:40:04
and it is going to cycle through variants and that's the concern right in the world
00:40:08
let me let me make a prediction i think that what at the end of this thing what i think i have come to the
00:40:15
conclusion of is there was a lot of unknowns that got perverted into hysteria and
00:40:25
mania by a handful of organizations to basically sequester power and what we realized is
00:40:34
that these people were incompetent and they didn't know what they were doing because you ended up in the same
00:40:40
place with all of these different distributions of actions and so now i think when you have this
00:40:46
other variant i think there's a growing sensation by a lot of people not just americans
00:40:52
that the cdc the who whoever it is is probably at best guessing and at worst making it up
00:41:00
and the ultimate result is their this it's almost as if they like being drunk with power
00:41:06
and so i think the last part of what you said freeberg is what i really agree with which is that this is not going to
00:41:12
be tolerated anymore and the reason is because they are also politicizing science
00:41:18
and what they're doing is when they don't know they're making poor guesses in the name of science which is
00:41:24
just as bad so you know i don't know what's going to happen with the delta variant
00:41:29
maybe a lot maybe a little but as far as i can tell i think people are tired of uninformed
00:41:37
impacts to their lives and they're not going to put up with it anymore saks chances california goes back to
00:41:44
lockdowns or some sort of mask mandates uh well well they are they're they're imposing mass mandates in doors in
00:41:51
places like la and you have the teachers unions the the national education union is now putting
00:41:59
down all these conditions on going back to school in the fall so i think you could be in a situation
00:42:04
where we do not have they will call it school reopening but we will not have five day a week in
00:42:10
person learning and the schools the public schools that have it are going to have all sorts of
00:42:14
insane restrictions and conditions like making kids who really aren't at risk for covet even even the delta variant
00:42:22
they're going to force them to wear mass they're going to enforce this ridiculous social
00:42:26
distancing they're talking about making the kids who aren't vaccinated sit at a separate table like the
00:42:31
outcasts i mean it's insane what they're talking about doing so why is that insane david not to
00:42:37
interrupt you but i'm just curious if i want you to unpack that because so so look i i'm pro-vaccine you
00:42:43
know i think adults should get vaccinated i don't think my kids need to get vaccinated um
00:42:48
i don't think that is a wise policy to to force kids to get vaccinated they're at very low risk for getting the
00:42:55
virus they're very low risk for transmitting the virus if they get it and even if they get it they're at
00:43:00
almost no risk for it being harmful or you know to cause serious illness or death
00:43:06
and so to impose all these restrictions on kids it's like we're living in a time
00:43:10
warp you know back to last summer we didn't know as much about the virus i mean to jamaa's point they're imposing
00:43:16
all these restrictions which are just unscientific and it really seems like the real point
00:43:21
is to create excuses for the teachers not to have to go back to work and you know you
00:43:27
know a school system is borked when the truancy is on the part of the teachers not the students
00:43:33
the students want to go back the teachers want to be truant it's like they want to be on permanent
00:43:38
vacation forever it is a really broken system by the way let me just highlight um you know to
00:43:45
support uh the concern that i think people like like people that saks is kind of
00:43:51
speaking to might be having a research letter was published in the journal um of the american medical medical
00:43:58
association two days ago a lead researcher with a guy named harold walsh and this paper is going
00:44:04
viral amongst kind of the um you know the the scientific and medical community right now and what
00:44:09
these guys did is they measured the carbon dioxide content of children's lungs um from wearing masks and so they were
00:44:18
trying to identify like is this a risk to children to actually be wearing masks health-wise
00:44:23
and the results are pretty scary it turns out that you know um in in in air in in ambient air
00:44:31
0.07 by volume is carbon dioxide when a normal and then they measured kids you know
00:44:37
randomized control double blind you know here's your enough double blind but randomized control there's kids that
00:44:41
have masks and kids that don't the kids that don't have masks their carbon dioxide when they exhale is about
00:44:48
0.28 percent when you have to wear a surgical mask your carbon dioxide increases to one
00:44:54
point three percent um and uh you know when they looked at this in a more detailed way it turns out
00:45:00
that it could be as high as three point eight percent and so this starts to reach a medical level
00:45:04
that is concerning for doctors that having these kids wear masks for hours a day could actually be having an
00:45:12
adverse health effect because it is increasing the carbon dioxide content of their blood because
00:45:16
you know their lungs aren't strong enough to breathe all this carbon dioxide out it builds up in their body
00:45:21
and so there is a now a counterpoint that is being made by scientists and doctors
00:45:26
that maybe the benefit of the safety we might get from kids wearing masks and spreading the virus
00:45:30
is um outweighed uh by the uh the cost of their health as a result of wearing these masks and to ask
00:45:37
kids to wear masks for eight hours a day or five hours a day for nine months a year we're just now
00:45:43
waking up to the fact that there may actually be consequences to this and i'm not making a struggle
00:45:47
it's like it's like it's like it's like child abuse so we sent our five-year-old
00:45:50
to a summer camp in la okay and the camp is outside and all the the adults are vaccinated okay
00:45:56
but they're making the kids wear masks and it's no fun you know and they can't play sports
00:46:02
the way they need to and we just said the hell with this and we took them out now what i don't
00:46:06
understand is why people aren't laying this at the feet of gavin newsom this is a hundred percent his
00:46:12
order you know all he has to do is say listen we don't need these rules anymore it's kids it's outside and all the
00:46:19
adults are vaccinated what is the point of this and you know and i think we have this
00:46:24
recall election now that's been scheduled for mid-september you know right now it looks like
00:46:29
nuisance going to cruise to to to winning but if we had a candidate in california who could say
00:46:35
listen we need five day a week ins you know in person schooling in the fall no exceptions all the teachers need to
00:46:43
go back to work or they're going to need to be looking for new jobs we're not going to kowtow and
00:46:48
give in to all these unnecessary unscientific restrictions okay because newsome will
00:46:52
not make that guarantee i think they could they could basically steal this thing we don't have anyone
00:46:58
standing up saying that and i think the closer we get to the start of school if we don't have that
00:47:03
kind of five day a week instruction i think parents are going to be up in arms about this
00:47:08
i think they will be and i think what we're going to prove is none of these folks really know what
00:47:12
they're talking about and so they will make it up and someone will have some shred of
00:47:18
evidence about something on either side of any topic and all it'll do is obfuscate and confuse and the end of
00:47:26
it will be somebody imposing something onto you that will have a negative impact on your
00:47:32
life but for their benefit in the teachers for their benefit like i don't want to go back
00:47:38
there's i mean listen i want to say all teachers don't want to go back to school
00:47:40
i know a lot of teachers want to go back to school and teach kids and take the masks off because it's
00:47:45
insufferable no you there is a contingency you can say the union and separated from teachers
00:47:49
exactly yeah i don't think it's all teachers it's some percentage of teachers but i think we're
00:47:54
going to move david freeburg quickly if i'm wrong here we're going to move to a two-class system here if you're
00:47:58
vaccinated you get one set of rules and if you're not vaccinated you get another and this is where david
00:48:03
i think kids who are over the age of 11 or 12 who do get vaccinated they shouldn't have to wear a mask at
00:48:09
school but then well sorry can i just say something this is what the insanity of this thing is it's like okay
00:48:14
we're going to throw around again we're probably going to use the word equity when we make these new rules but then
00:48:20
fine why don't you just create a school that has everybody in it who is vaccinated well sac state
00:48:28
i don't even understand i don't understand this because all of us are vaccinated so our
00:48:32
we don't need to worry about it so in other words we're going to impose restrictions on people and force
00:48:38
kids or whoever to get vaccinated to protect whom if all the adults are vaccinated we're
00:48:42
not protecting anybody all we're doing is protecting i guess unvaccinated adults that makes no sense
00:48:48
to me well they're taking the risk right i mean if you're choosing to not get the vaccine at this
00:48:53
point friedberg you're taking some significant level of risk or some moderate level does the
00:48:58
government have a responsibility to protect that person i don't think it matters what i
00:49:03
think matters is remember like the societal responsibility is not and cannot be to protect every
00:49:10
individual the societal responsibility is to make sure that society functions and
00:49:16
um and if we take a zoom back and i just want everyone to reset your brains go back to march of
00:49:21
last year and we were talking about the surge of deaths in hospitals and hospitals were
00:49:26
going to be overwhelmed and that was the reason we needed to go into lockdowns and the reason we needed
00:49:30
to stop the surge even if this delta variant is highly infectious there are enough people and people
00:49:37
vaccinated in the united states at this point that this delta variant is not going to
00:49:41
crush our hospital system it's not going to cause massive amount of fatalities which is the reason we
00:49:46
went into lockdowns in the first place all of the concerns that we had last year that rationalized a lot of the
00:49:51
extreme behavior that we undertook no longer exists and we are now talking about continuing those
00:49:57
those behaviors under a different set of standards and the set of standards is now i can't
00:50:02
put a teacher at risk i can't put an individual at risk and even if that individual got infected
00:50:07
if the fatality rate is so low i can still say well they could die therefore i can't have them exposed
00:50:13
right and that has become the new standards what i think saxon that that article kind of talked about
00:50:17
is heroism you know you get to a point if you're if you're fighting a war on a battlefield and you're like well i
00:50:23
can't let any of my soldiers die we can't move down the field you're not going to move down the field
00:50:28
you're not going to win the war and i'm not saying that this is a war the point is society has to progress the
00:50:33
economy has to progress people's lives have to progress people have to be educated life is about
00:50:38
progress and if we halt progress because of the concern that any individual might get
00:50:43
harmed because of the progress of the group as a whole we will not go anywhere and
00:50:47
we've created a new set of standards that i think creates that very reality and it is
00:50:51
frightening let me let me let me put a finer point on this which is just this coat this delta variant is just
00:50:58
more covered fear porn okay this is the third variant of concern where they've been you know running
00:51:05
around alarms saying that you know we have to worry the truth is is it more transmissible
00:51:10
yes it is going to i think sweep through areas of the country in the fall that aren't vaccinated but
00:51:16
the question is how does it perform against the vaccines and so far the vaccines are holding up
00:51:22
the the variants none of the variants have really punched through the vaccines in a meaningful way i think
00:51:27
the stats on pfizer were it's it was it maybe reduced the effectiveness from 95 to 88 or something like that but it
00:51:35
wasn't a material difference if you were double vax with pfizer you are protected against the delta
00:51:40
variant and so this is just more fear porn that they keep popping i'm in agreement with you and i think
00:51:46
this reminds me of when we were growing up in the 80s they tried to scare us about sex and hiv and
00:51:54
were you not going to have sex if you were in your 20s in the 90s and into the 80s no you
00:52:01
learned about hiv you learn to use condoms you learn that you you probably couldn't do
00:52:06
uh you know what people did in the 60s and 70s which had many many partners you maybe had to have fewer partners
00:52:11
maybe longer term partners but you could you could take your own risk by putting on a condom you could make
00:52:16
that decision for yourself here i think there's a group of people who don't want
00:52:20
anybody to make any decisions for themselves and in this case the vaccine is wearing
00:52:24
a condom if you're wearing a condom like your chances of getting hiv go down dramatically it's just a known fact and
00:52:31
we're at 263 people on average dying a day how many of those fredberg do you think are
00:52:37
with covid versus from kovit if you had to take a guess i have i have always i i hate doing this because then
00:52:44
people think it's like an inhuman analysis but the way that um actuaries or economists would kind of
00:52:49
take a look at this sort of decision tree and this sort of data is the number of
00:52:54
life years lost okay um so imagine someone is going to die tomorrow if someone's going to die tomorrow and
00:53:01
they catch covet today and they die a day early you have lost a life day and everyone yes that is
00:53:06
absolutely devastating and it is awful emotionally but like when we're making big decisions we have to think with the
00:53:12
data and so um if someone catches covid and they and they lose five years and they
00:53:17
die five years early then they statistically would have died that's five life years lost when a child dies
00:53:22
you are losing 68 life years right that is an incredible loss of life is one is one way to kind of think about this
00:53:28
statistically and so um you know part of i think what's been missing in the equation and
00:53:33
it's easy to tell the narrative by speaking about people that have dead that have died that tested positive for
00:53:39
covet when they died is it now speaks to the fact that this is a binary experience
00:53:44
and there's a binary number of lives lost but the statistical the data-driven exercise which may sound
00:53:49
inhuman and may sound awful but again we have to make these decisions using data if we're going to make large
00:53:55
decisions that are going to impact everyone in a meaningful way is to look at the number of life years
00:53:59
lost and i think if you were to do that you would still find that the vast majority of deaths
00:54:04
associated with covet are very elderly people who are already very close to dying and
00:54:09
that's why we are seeing the fatality rate so low right now in the united states even though covet is still
00:54:14
spreading with the delta variant it is because almost 90 of people over 70 have been vaccinated and as a
00:54:21
result the people that are most at risk of dying are well protected and we are not
00:54:26
seeing a significant loss of life associated with this terrible virus the terrible virus is still spreading
00:54:30
but the life loss is still not there now someone might raise their hand and say well we don't know the long-term
00:54:34
implications of long-term ramifications i would raise my other hand and say show
00:54:39
me what the data is that says that there are those long-term implications ramifications because i can
00:54:44
say the what-ifs about anything and then implement any policy decision i want by
00:54:48
just saying what if and we don't know we have to say we do know here's the data in order to make a tough decision
00:54:54
versus saying we need to be you know protective and use the protective you know principle of um of precaution or the
00:55:02
precautionary principle and be really careful in these circumstances because at this point the impact and the
00:55:07
damage associated with some of our practices to quote unquote guard against covid and
00:55:12
and you know protect people it's turning out their real consequences to those decisions all right freeberg
00:55:17
final question on kovid uh should you wear two condoms in other words should you get moderna
00:55:23
and pfizer or j j and pfizer there are studies coming out now to say one plus one equals three there is some
00:55:30
super effect of getting two i am looking into this i'm thinking i'm gonna get a second vaccine
00:55:36
i might get to get a modern or a pfizer a j j just don't make it don't wait don't waste the vaccine shots
00:55:41
let them go to other countries you know not needed not needed even though the studies are starting to show
00:55:47
it gives you increased i mean do you need your tests do you need your tesla to go from 180 to 185
00:55:52
miles an hour i mean like you know that's a good point i mean look everything we learn about the vaccines
00:55:58
makes them look better and better the protection lasts longer than we thought the
00:56:03
um they're more effective against variants than people were afraid of and now we learn that there is even more
00:56:09
protection by sort of this mix and match idea so the vaccines have worked there are
00:56:13
still i think a couple of groups in america that are very vaccine hesitant um evangelicals and african-americans are
00:56:22
the two groups that was male republicans it's it's more like evangelicals and so in a place like
00:56:27
mississippi where you have large numbers of both the vaccine rates only like 29 30
00:56:32
it's actually pretty low in a place like that you could see the delta variants sweep through in the
00:56:38
fall and you could see a lot of cases i you know let me let me buck your uh labeling
00:56:44
categorization of me jake by saying that i don't think the leaders on the right are doing anyone
00:56:51
any favors any of their voters any favors by not coming out and saying look the vaccines
00:56:57
work you know i think trump could do a lot of good by coming out and just saying listen i got the vaccine i'm
00:57:02
pretty sure he did right he did he did and so you know i think if you are in one of those groups you know and
00:57:10
certainly you're over like 40 you should be getting the vaccine i mean not to harp on this but what did trump
00:57:15
say when you suggested you come out publicly about it nobody's listening to it nobody's no
00:57:21
it's fine nobody's listening to me obviously i mean it it is very weird that trump spent
00:57:31
massive amounts of money on the vaccine and now doesn't want to take credit for project light speed by telling everybody
00:57:36
to get it i think he's got what is your other issues i think he's got a lot of other
00:57:41
issues on the plate to deal with including an indictment that just landed yesterday so
00:57:45
maybe you know maybe he just doesn't know what to focus on because he he sees his uh his budding
00:57:51
empire unraveling before him did you see the report that said that trump was extremely thrilled by the fact that
00:57:57
his cfo was indicted for two reasons one is it kind of indicates that they didn't have enough
00:58:03
to go after him and two is it's going to make joe biden look bad and his administration
00:58:08
look bad uh because it looks like they're being kind of prosecuted and persecuted now but that he views
00:58:13
this as a positive and and he's thinking about it as a way to kind of stage a 2024 run
00:58:19
well i didn't i didn't see that particular story but i do think that maggie tweeted okay well
00:58:26
what the charges show i think is that they got nothing on trump directly um i mean this turned out to be
00:58:32
a big nothing burger after years of investigation just like the whole russia thing
00:58:37
and so 15 15 felony counts trump was not let me finish trump trump was not named they didn't get close to
00:58:48
trump all they got was they're trying to charge the wesley high muzu cfo with basically receiving certain perks
00:58:54
as compensation t and that was tv violations it was crazy yeah this is penny annie's stuff it does look
00:59:00
like persecution rather than prosecution and what they're trying to do is they're going after this guy
00:59:05
wesselheim to squeeze him to try and roll over on trump well good luck with that that's about as
00:59:10
likely to happen as uh putin releasing the p tapes not going to happen sorry jacal
00:59:16
trump is getting away one thing i would say i think that i disagree with respectfully is um
00:59:23
this is a 15-year uh tax avoidance scheme that included more than t e included people getting their tuition
00:59:31
paid for for free and free apartments so they just would be and then hold on they then
00:59:36
knowingly did this and changed the books knowingly so they caught them going into their accounting
00:59:41
and changing to hide it and so the cover-up worse than the crime this is an explicit way
00:59:46
to not pay their taxes this would be if all of us took our personal residences and our kids
00:59:51
private school tuition and didn't pay taxes on it it's significant jason so the the total amount for
00:59:56
example that this guy got in uh tuition reimbursements over this 15-year period was about 375
01:00:04
000 the total amount of some other rent perks that he got was for about 1.6 or 7
01:00:10
million the total amount of value that i think his son got you know was spending a
01:00:15
thousand dollars a month in a trombone department when you add it all up for a guy that
01:00:20
was accused of you know being in cahoots with russia this and that and everything you pinch
01:00:27
the cfo for a few million dollars of effectively again t e let's just say that he did it
01:00:34
you know some of these checks came directly from trump it i think i agree with david it's a bit of
01:00:39
a nothing burger and it really does look like it's politically motivated and the reason is
01:00:44
because these kinds of chargers are typically not brought these are things that typically result
01:00:50
in a civil penalty a restatement and you just kind of move on you know nobody nobody's trying to send
01:00:55
somebody to jail for you know getting for miscategorizing or i have a theory because we don't have
01:01:01
full information and they weren't investigating this stuff before trump became a politician
01:01:05
why weren't wh this if this been going on for 15 years why didn't this investigation happen
01:01:11
five six seven years ago i could tell you why his um the daughter-in-law of weisselbergs uh was uh
01:01:20
received a lot of these perks and then she dropped a dime and gave all the documents to them
01:01:24
my theory on this is because we don't have complete information yet i think that they have other i think
01:01:30
they have this bigger tax uh case around making the assets look um smaller when paying taxes and
01:01:38
inflating the value of the assets when getting loans and i think they want to get that and the way to get that
01:01:44
is to flip weiselberg because trump does not use email and communications i think
01:01:48
that that's what's going on here um but yes you're right they're trying to they're trying to flip him look
01:01:54
the the kgb had a saying show us the man we'll tell you the crime okay they decided we're gonna go after
01:02:01
trump this is entirely political they weren't interested in him five six seven years ago once he got
01:02:06
into politics they became interested in him he became the man and now they are trying to roll up and flip all these
01:02:12
people and try to get them to turn on trump and give them something these democratic
01:02:16
pit bull prosecutors they are going to make trump look like the victim here this will rebound i think in a negative
01:02:21
way it is a really stupid thing that they're doing i mean this this could have happened in
01:02:26
so many different ways the guy was finished and washed up right he was in his little hovel in
01:02:33
florida you know no twitter account you know in the one no twitter account no access to
01:02:37
his base um the one time he actually showed up in new york two or three weeks ago i don't
01:02:41
know if you guys saw the photos he looks so disheveled so old so broken let the guy wither
01:02:48
into obscurity but instead you pin these charges you create an entire press cycle you're
01:02:54
going to rally so many people on the right and actually a lot of people in general
01:02:58
who feel like wait what are we doing as a country why don't we just let it just be done
01:03:02
with this guy i don't ever want to hear about him ever again and instead we're kind of like bringing
01:03:07
it all back front center i just think it's a bad look what do you think about the insurrection
01:03:13
commission do you think that that should um should be disbanded as well because you think that should that should be
01:03:19
pursued yeah because that's not necessarily about trump that it is about a whole totality of things that really
01:03:25
will lead into the fact that we have a lot of far right organizations that need to be understood we have one
01:03:35
far-left organization that needs to be understood all in the same light which is that
01:03:39
these folks are destabilizing force to democracy and so yeah you got to get to the bottom
01:03:45
of what the hell happened sex do you do you think the insurrection commission is going to be equally kind
01:03:50
of politically motivating for uh for trump's face and for folks like that well i just think that
01:03:57
you have to decide as a country whether you're going to keep relitigating you know what happened in
01:04:02
the previous administration i mean if we're going to go back and keep this going
01:04:06
you know we're going to go back and look at why did the fbi used the steele dossier
01:04:13
to go to a fisa court to spy on members of the trump campaign and there are 17 misrepresentations in
01:04:20
their uh in their petition to the fisa court i mean there was clear misconduct there
01:04:24
we're going to go back and relitigate that and go after people and punish them look maybe we should
01:04:29
okay but i think that this is the thing about politics everyone just wants to move forward
01:04:33
we're in a new administration now whatever misconduct occurred i think the punishment was paid at the
01:04:39
ballot box i think it's just time to move on and uh and i look i know there's going to be a
01:04:45
lot of partisans on both sides who just want to go re-litigate and punish their enemies forever
01:04:50
but you know i think the american people just want to move forward yeah what do you mean are you in the far
01:04:56
what are you in the far left want to do well i'm not on the far left i mean i i think that there is a
01:05:01
i do think that there is a bunch of gamesmanship here i think this is a a chess board that on the left they're
01:05:08
saying if we we if we have a chance to take trump out of political life we need to
01:05:16
do that because the cost of him getting re-elected in 2024 is too great and so what we're talking
01:05:22
about here is you know what is the best path to doing that and you know chamats right like
01:05:27
just letting him fade into obscurity he may not want to run again because he's so old
01:05:31
and it's so painful to be president he's 75 i mean he's going to be 78 or no 17 he'll be the same age as biden
01:05:38
going i mean this is ridiculous both of these two guys are one-term presidents i think
01:05:43
that is abundantly clear i think the question is what is biden's transition plan
01:05:49
you know does he actually only stay two years and transitions to takamala i don't know but there's no way that
01:05:55
he's running for a second term either he does not look healthy i think that much
01:05:59
is at least and i'm saying this as you know a centrist democrat he doesn't look completely fit um
01:06:07
and it's only going to get worse and this is the most incredibly stressful job in the world
01:06:11
neither of these two guys are our long-term solution it's time to let it all go right
01:06:18
it's like we had four years of just chaos we now get to have four years to catch our breath
01:06:26
it's time to find the late 40s to mid 50s centrist normal people again and we have
01:06:34
three years to do it who do you think that is on the republican side and tomorrow who do you
01:06:39
think it is on the democrat side who's going to run for the next election cycle because just this morning by the way an
01:06:44
article came out that um highlighted that several insiders in the white house are
01:06:49
completely like up in arms about how uh chaotic uh kamala harris's office is which is
01:06:56
basically a way of starting to shoot her down right so if you think about the the
01:07:00
motivation here someone in the white house is starting to shoot kamala harris down
01:07:03
which means they're starting to weaken her a little bit in terms of whether she could actually be a good replacement for
01:07:08
the next term i don't know if that's truly the motivation but that's typically what these sorts of stories
01:07:12
indicate so if not her if not her who on the democrat side and you know if not trump who on the
01:07:19
republican side in the next election cycle because those folks are going to start to pop their head up right
01:07:23
the well i mean i think the i think the person who has enough credibility to take a shot it's
01:07:30
not clear that she will but if she did she would be really serious and she could actually get people to be
01:07:37
relatively normal as nikki haley on the right but ron desantis is going to be the right
01:07:43
candidate correct and she's kind of normal desantis is definitely the early front runner
01:07:47
um there was a straw poll in which he was the first republican to actually run ahead of trump in a
01:07:54
straw poll for what four or five years and uh so yeah it looks like uh he now he's running for re-election in
01:08:02
florida in 2022 so that's on his plate and but i think it looks like he's going to sweep to victory he made the right
01:08:10
decisions on lockdowns this is the central feather in his cap that before any other governor really he
01:08:18
looked at the data saw that to freeburg's point lockdowns don't make a difference
01:08:23
he went back to normal the state benefited you look at per capita covades in florida
01:08:28
it's middle of the pack which is actually a really good result given how many old people they have so
01:08:33
he did a phenomenal job i think setting covet policy in florida and he did it in the face of a hostile media that was
01:08:42
just tearing him limb from limb and so he stowed that he only can find the right policy
01:08:47
but that he's got the spine to stand up for it and i think as a result of that yeah he has
01:08:53
galvanized early the republican base if he wins re-election in 2022 by uh by a strong margin i think he does
01:09:02
become the putative front-runner for 2024. very similar in a way i think to the way that that george w
01:09:08
bush you know he he basically won re-election in texas two years before he ran for president
01:09:14
and on the heels of that victory he was able to make the case look i just got reelected
01:09:19
very popular in a huge state of the country you know i should be the front-runner
01:09:23
i think desantis is in a similar position what do you think about nikki haley's sex
01:09:28
i think nikki haley is sort of popular with the establishment wing of the republican party but she
01:09:33
does not bring together both the the sort of the establishment wing with the populist wing and what
01:09:39
desantis has been able to do is get the business republicans and the establishment
01:09:44
republicans to get behind him as well as the populist trump base loves him and that's that's
01:09:51
the um that's the combo you got to have i think to to win the republican nomination and so
01:09:57
nikki haley i think you know everybody who sort of reads elite media is going to over index
01:10:03
on her but if you go to the the straw polls and the rallies she's not just not going to perform in
01:10:08
those polls there's a very interesting article on politico though over the past week about how
01:10:13
desantis is being very careful not to do anything to upset trump and i think he understands
01:10:19
is he the vp candidate with trump you think well that that pre-assumes a lot of things happening i mean look
01:10:26
we don't know what's gonna happen i think that you know the the number one way to resurrect
01:10:31
trump is what chamas said is to keep poking that bear to fill him with the the rage to to sort of counter punch and
01:10:40
come back i think it would be better however for a new generation of leaders to look we have we're being
01:10:47
run by a gerontocracy right now so i mean just biden is 78 pelosi is 80. schumer is 77. mcconnell is 80 and trump
01:10:56
is 75. and that's today okay in 2024 all those people are going to be in their 80s or
01:11:02
just about who will even be alive i mean feinstein will be 91 or 92. it's time to have a new generation of
01:11:09
both parties why are we being run by this gerontocracy what a joke do we want to move on to the
01:11:14
drought and impending uh death and or the facebook ftc dismissal oh that was incredible and also at the
01:11:22
uh ftc got two gut punches in a row uh and then you know amazon writes this petition to recuse lena khan
01:11:30
it's like that's why she was hired incredible she was hired because she's an expert on amazon the the amazon the
01:11:36
amazon letter was actually extremely well written and basically said i know that she's in charge of basically
01:11:43
finding fairness and fairness seems to be that we will get legislated but we believe
01:11:47
that it's unfair to us so please take her out of the mix i just think it was fantastic i mean it's
01:11:53
incredible it's like isn't this the point of having her in the job it's like we've hired a new prosecutor
01:11:58
who specializes in organized crime and the gambino crime family has petitioned to have them
01:12:03
exactly refused refused from doing any organized right there their argument is that she
01:12:09
should be recused because she published um articles yeah that amazon should be broken up and they're saying she's
01:12:15
already prejudged the situation there's no way this is gonna fly there's no way she's gonna get recused
01:12:21
but i think what they're trying to do is put an argument on appeal so that if lena khan does break them up
01:12:28
somehow they can then go appeal to the supreme court or wherever and this is basically reserving an argument
01:12:34
they can make later so just to highlight the ftc um brought this case against facebook saying that they're a
01:12:42
monopoly in their monopolistic practices or damaging the market the dc federal court threw out the case
01:12:47
and they basically said that the ftc failed to demonstrate in any way that facebook has a monopoly over anything
01:12:54
because they kept using the 60 market share term and they're like 60 what and the ftc was never able to give
01:13:01
them data or facts to indicate what facebook has a 60 share of there are other social media
01:13:08
services or other advertising platforms there are other content sites that are all
01:13:11
um in aggregate much larger than facebook and so the case was dismissed because there was no demonstration
01:13:18
at all which is why of the traditional definition of a monopoly and then elizabeth warren comes out two
01:13:24
days ago and says we need to rewrite the laws uh the anti-trust laws entirely redefine
01:13:29
what it means to be a monopoly redefine what this this impacts and so i think the big question is how much of a
01:13:34
priority is it going to be for this administration and for this congress before they're out of session
01:13:39
and we end up with a split congress again to step up and rewrite anti-trust laws at
01:13:43
this point is this really a high priority question um or is it going to get that's why khan is
01:13:48
being brought in is to take another approach like we talked about on the last episode which is
01:13:54
you know the harm is competition uh and not uh the monopolistic power but downstream competition as chamath uh
01:14:03
eloquently explained on the last pod the irony of the elizabeth warren uh statements was that she released them
01:14:09
on twitter not her facebook somebody dunked at her like she's talking about the monopolistic powers of facebook on
01:14:14
twitter right right you have an alternative it was the point um i mean how big of how big of a like
01:14:21
legislative priority is this going to be for democrats because this could be real
01:14:26
if they rewrite the laws it could be impactful to amazon apple facebook google you know
01:14:32
huge it's a huge priority there's six bills that just got passed in the house is going to the senate and i do think
01:14:37
moving fast this is one of the areas where you could actually get some bipartisan agreement
01:14:42
in the senate you remember it's a 50-50 senate all it would take would be a few democrats
01:14:46
to defect and they wouldn't be able to pass anything but you got 21 republicans who supported lena khan so you know that
01:14:54
says to me that legislation is likely i think it's going to go through i think we are going to see some some
01:15:01
big changes and in fairness to lena khan this ftc lawsuit that got thrown out was brought before she got there she
01:15:07
didn't have a chance to shape those arguments they have 30 days to refile it'll be
01:15:12
really interesting to see how she handles this hot potato now whether she brings the lawsuit in a
01:15:19
different way in the next 30 days or whether she lets it drop but i do think that of all
01:15:24
the big tech companies the argument for breaking up facebook is the weakest because it's true like it's it's harder
01:15:31
to say definitively they have a monopoly in social networking when you've got twitter
01:15:35
you've got snapchat you've talked to reddit you've got you've got linkedin you've got so many
01:15:41
other companies in social media but but that does not mean that the argument against amazon google and apple isn't
01:15:48
strong those companies are clearly monopolies or duopolies in their spaces nobody can effectively compete with them
01:15:54
their network effects or monopoly scale effects i think that facebook's monopolistic
01:15:59
impact probably tends towards some form of information distribution but it's a very
01:16:04
technical argument that has to be framed accurately on the one side or it's how they've aggregated long-tail
01:16:10
advertisers on the other but to your point david on the idea of social networking i don't think they're
01:16:14
a monopoly in the lease well also they're re-litigating the approved acquisitions of instagram and
01:16:20
whatsapp i kind of feel like if you bought these things and you approved it what is it nine years ago
01:16:25
and seven years ago yeah they said they said if you guys had an issue that you know the state's
01:16:30
attorney general that filed the suit against the instagram acquisition and whatsapp they're like if
01:16:34
you had an issue with it you should have filed the suit years ago you waited too long and clearly there's
01:16:39
you know you know other motivations like just because google was successful buying youtube
01:16:43
doesn't mean you can go back in and unwind youtube because they did a great job building youtube
01:16:47
99.999 percent of youtube success is because of google not because youtube they took a small
01:16:54
team and they rebuilt that whole thing and they scaled the heck out of it let me ask you a
01:16:57
question to sacks if these companies paid more taxes and got out of the censorship business
01:17:03
uh do you think they could you know maybe take a little wind out of the sales yes yeah of course look the only reason
01:17:10
the only reason those 21 republicans have now gotten on board with regulating the power of these big
01:17:16
tech companies is they see those big tech companies using their gatekeeper power to restrict free speech
01:17:21
and it's all one-sided and it's partisan against you know their side of the aisle because
01:17:26
these companies are populated generally speaking by people on the other side of the aisle
01:17:31
and so you know big tech if they had just reigned in their own impulses to want to censor the other side they
01:17:37
would not be in the hot water they're in right now because it seems like facebook is
01:17:42
starting to backtrack on the trump ban well they haven't twitter and i think i think they got a big problem now no
01:17:49
look i think they should have been doing this over the last couple of years what they thought could never happen all
01:17:54
of a sudden became arbitrary and the thing that they did was they started to legislate
01:17:59
a private company started to legislate power and that's just a third rail issue the
01:18:05
minute you do that you have every government in the world saying you're saying to themselves wait a minute
01:18:10
i am only focused on this one thing right i don't take a huge salary i've been grinding at the low levels of politics
01:18:17
for 40 50 years to get to this exact place and now i have a bunch of hipsters in
01:18:22
menlo park telling me what i can and can't say to the people that i worked a lifetime
01:18:27
to basically be able to govern over i mean i you know yeah you can't it can't stand
01:18:33
yeah so i think a big mistake that zuckerberg made goes all the way back to 2016.
01:18:37
facebook basically bought into the disinformation argument they apologized for it
01:18:42
what zuck that was the time for zuckerberg to fight he should have said no listen was the fsb were these bad actors
01:18:49
on facebook yes but when you look at the total number of impressions and page views it was like a
01:18:54
drop of water in the ocean we're not the ones who caused this election to go the way it did obama used facebook
01:19:01
very effectively in 2008 and nobody has examined us then and that was the time to fight
01:19:07
that was the time to fight and to your point david he actually should have been even more
01:19:11
he said the reason trump got elected was not me but it was obama you know he could
01:19:16
have really gone on the attack and he would have done himself well hillary hillary just ran a bad campaign
01:19:21
if hillary had just campaigned in wisconsin it would have gone a different way in 2016. so what zuck should have she
01:19:27
had an idiot team she had an idea she had a terrible team and they were bad at everything including facebook
01:19:32
including social media so zuck should have said listen don't blame us for the fact the
01:19:37
campaign was bad at social media you put victory into the jaws of defeat uh let's uh end on this u.s sprinter case i
01:19:44
think it's super interesting you're a sprinter richardson test positive for marijuana
01:19:49
and is suspended a month putting her tokyo doubt uh she is the gold medal favorite in the women's 100 meter uh and
01:19:58
she could miss the games after testing poverty positive she said she smoked pot when
01:20:02
she found out uh in oregon legally when she found out her mom had died um and it's on the united states
01:20:11
doping agency announced this result on friday her explanation is so [ __ ] heartbreaking
01:20:20
i mean what are we doing here well there was there was this is similar to the golfer who was about to win the
01:20:26
pga and got kicked out on the final day because he tested positive for kova without anything
01:20:32
outdoors he's outside guys i cannot imagine a worse drug for a sprinter than marijuana
01:20:40
yeah i mean for healing great but i mean you're gonna like run the hundred meters
01:20:44
and it's not a performance enhancing drug what this is is this legalism these bureaucratic legalistic
01:20:53
technicalities gone wild in this case or this runner in the case of the golfer i mean it's like
01:20:59
it's like the bureaucrats enforcing the rules have completely lost sight of what the purpose these rules are the
01:21:06
spirit of the rule is super important um and there was a professional snowboarder
01:21:13
and his name was ross galati from canada and he wanted a medal and they took his medal away
01:21:22
because he had thc in his uh system and disqualified him and then they went back and gave him his medal
01:21:29
back i believe and so this is heartbreaking and ridiculous and i i i'm not going to watch the i
01:21:38
love watching the olympics i watch a lot of the olympics i really enjoy it um i think it's awesome and i'm just not
01:21:43
gonna watch this this year [ __ ] it i i just i'm so offended by this like you want these people to take like
01:21:49
opioids for their pain uh and suffering or you want to take some antidepressant i mean
01:21:54
jesus christ jason look i'll also say like in in our friend group we have a handful of
01:22:01
nba players and i don't i don't think you remember this conversation or maybe you do
01:22:05
i think we were all together when they talked about the up until uh marijuana was more widely
01:22:12
used in the nba yeah the pills that these players were given literally borderline opioids crazy
01:22:21
ripped their stomach apart ripped everything apart you know created dependencies
01:22:26
and all of a sudden you had a natural alternative and people are going to judge folks for taking i mean
01:22:32
these guys are brutalizing their bodies for enter for effectively our entertainment
01:22:37
and then we don't give them a reasonable way to manage their pain it's outrageous
01:22:41
and everybody else is smoking a doobie during halftime or taking a gummy on the way home to sleep
01:22:47
i mean it's so hypocritical and it feels like i mean this country just feels like it's
01:22:52
being run by a bunch of bureaucratic technocratic leaders weenies and whether it's
01:22:59
whether it's we should give them a wedgie and throw them in the locker that's what we should do with this
01:23:03
whoever put this person they get a wedgie and get thrown in a locker i knew you i knew you were a schoolyard
01:23:09
bully jkl i'm not a schoolyard bully but i do think the hall monitors you know those people you were a wall
01:23:15
monitor did you volunteer to be a home monitor be honest no no no no you were in the chess club i
01:23:22
liked our chess game sax yeah okay this is how i knew this is how i knew that jake out wasn't
01:23:28
real i knew i knew i had heard him okay i knew he was genuinely hurt but i knew he would get over it when i
01:23:34
got i saw my push notifications or requests from chess.com he started a chess game
01:23:39
with me so i'm like how did i play because i'm a neophyte he couldn't have easily he
01:23:44
couldn't be away from how easy was it to beat me as a 1200 player to my 600 yeah well the
01:23:49
chess.com analysis said that uh i was never i was never in any danger but uh i thought you played pretty well
01:23:56
and uh yeah give me a tip what's my tip well you you didn't castle fast enough you let me you left
01:24:02
you let me get that bishop out yeah you let me trap your king in the center and then
01:24:07
you know it was a but that but you did good you did good all right i knew i was okay with you
01:24:12
when i got to chess.com i think we need a vegas trip maybe we're all just a little cooped up
01:24:16
maybe we need to go to vegas do a quick 48 hour run this weekend should we do a little 48-hour vegas run
01:24:25
all right everybody this has been an amazing episode so i'm officially unblocking saks and um
01:24:31
i even followed him love you chamoth love you sacks love you free birthday jkl i have
01:24:37
something to say to you as well which is i appreciate you i i rain man david sacks
01:25:02
and they've just gone crazy [Music] one big huge orgy because they're all just useless it's like this like sexual
01:25:28
tension that they just need to release [Music] your feet [Music] what are those pants dude these are my
01:25:55
swim trunks whoa swim trunks ah there they are the internet famous legs i mean these legs are actually but much
01:26:04
much bigger look look how big they are oh please tell me you're recording nick look at how big these are