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Brad Gerstner: Companies Will Pay 5x More for the Best AI

July 13, 2026 / 01:51

This episode discusses the costs associated with AI token usage, comparing cheap and expensive models, and their implications for software engineering and consulting.

Jason highlights the significant expense of using AI models for tasks, noting that while cheaper models may save money, the risks of failure can lead to higher costs in the long run. He emphasizes the importance of reliability in AI applications.

The conversation touches on the competitive landscape of AI companies, particularly Anthropic and OpenAI, and how their revenue growth reflects market choices. Jason argues that there will always be a demand for premium products despite the availability of cheaper options.

Overall, the discussion centers on the evolving AI market, the trade-offs between cost and quality, and the ongoing growth of open-source models.

TLDR

AI token costs impact software engineering and consulting, with reliability outweighing cheaper options.

Episode

1:51
00:00:00
Jason, you talked about summarizing a document. May take 20,000 cheap tokens to do. Of course, shoot that to a
00:00:06
lagging model or an open-source model. But if you're talking about replacing a software engineer for 2 hours, that may
00:00:12
take 2 million expensive tokens. And the consequence of using something that's 95% as good is really high,
00:00:20
right? Because you have a long-running task, and if the task breaks early, or it breaks in the middle, or breaks at
00:00:26
the end, there's a huge cost to that. So >> You still pay >> the tokens, right? You And back to this
00:00:32
analogy I was using, you're pulling the slot machine and you lose. >> And the time and the compute. So, if an
00:00:38
AI agent is replacing a $200 an hour consultant, right? Take that as an example. So, three consulting firms,
00:00:45
they're competing, they need the smartest consultant. If they're charging 200 bucks an hour, the difference
00:00:51
between spending three bucks on a cheap model or 15 bucks on an expensive model to replace a $200 an hour consultant,
00:01:00
it's just irrelevant. That inference cost difference is irrelevant. If you're getting something that's bulletproof for
00:01:06
15 bucks, and so I think that's what we're seeing play out. The best evidence for all of this is just revenue growth.
00:01:12
I'm talking about what is Anthropic's revenue growth compared to OpenAI, compared to the open-source models.
00:01:18
Millions of independent actors are choosing every single day. The open-source companies are growing,
00:01:24
right? >> Yeah. >> But they're growing selling something that is really, really cheap. And
00:01:28
there's room in every single market for premium products, for mid-tier products,
00:01:33
and for commodity products. And I think we see a lot of this token growth. People are speculating that the
00:01:40
intelligence gap between that commodity stuff and the frontier stuff is going to
00:01:45
collapse to the point that people won't pay for the frontier stuff. There is no evidence of that on the field today.

Episode Highlights

  • The Cost of AI Quality
    Using a lower-quality AI model can lead to significant costs if tasks fail.
    “The consequence of using something that's 95% as good is really high.”
    @ 00m 17s
    July 13, 2026
  • Revenue Growth Comparison
    Anthropic's revenue growth is compared to OpenAI and open-source models.
    @ 01m 10s
    July 13, 2026
  • Market Dynamics in AI
    There's room for premium, mid-tier, and commodity products in the AI market.
    @ 01m 31s
    July 13, 2026

Episode Quotes

  • The consequence of using something that's 95% as good is really high.
    Brad Gerstner: Companies Will Pay 5x More for the Best AI
  • If you're getting something that's bulletproof for 15 bucks, it's irrelevant.
    Brad Gerstner: Companies Will Pay 5x More for the Best AI

Key Moments

  • AI Model Risks00:17
  • Consultant Replacement00:41
  • Market Growth01:31