00:00:00
love you guys uh Hey if you guys are uh around you know and anyone who wants to get some wine and some people just got some wine later maybe next week or something who knows maybe we all get together in person have a glass of wine
00:00:12
I see you soon I love you guys I love you ciao you're about to come to Italy and basically you're gonna gain 15 pounds for sure okay so we were there in Italy this is a long time ago is this
00:00:26
when we were in Venice the quality of Italian white wine is outrageous really it's outrageous do they have a men's
00:00:33
bikini for you for when we're in Italy I would buy that let's just say thank you to the amazing people of Italy for
00:00:40
having what an incredible the greatest country for adults to go on vacation in what an incredible country
00:00:48
here we go in three two hey someone's going through everybody welcome try it again three two hey everybody
00:00:59
welcome to another episode of the all in podcast we are here in beautiful Portofino Italy and we have found a new bestie introduce yourself Natalie is
00:01:10
your name that is my name and don't be surprised by my surname ah you've got a surname uh what is the surname
00:01:22
so your cousins apparently and you were on a biotech business I understand here in Italy in my spare time yeah when
00:01:29
somebody else doesn't consume the life out of me got it okay so you're uh dealing drugs in Italy and welcome to
00:01:35
the all in pod uh in all seriousness uh we are here in Italy uh because chemath and Natalie got married big round of applause
00:01:47
nice and uh we decided we'd tape an episode very quickly uh but tell us um what was it like at the wedding marrying chamath polyhapatia tell us
00:02:00
about the wedding it was um was a lot of work and shamath was as you can expect completely utterly useless yes we've
00:02:12
seen this in fact in fact counterproductive he showed up at times really really frustrating yes
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um but I love him nonetheless so here we are very happy this is the moment I would like to take credit for 30 of the
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wedding and then a number that you can't dispute you don't really know what it means yeah and then everybody ends up thanking you
00:02:33
effusively because they're like the 30 that they love the most that was me yeah if you want to make an estimate 20 30
00:02:39
chance is uh you can't go wrong Friedberg and sax are with us the Don uh Sachs you had a lot of clandestine meetings here any are we any closer to peace in Ukraine Russia I saw you
00:02:50
talking to some Russian emissaries you've been on the continent for a full month tell us why don't you go for 12
00:02:56
hours yesterday yeah I know that you've been on some of these crazy Yachts out here trying to broker piece how close are we and how are you enjoying uh your
00:03:03
time in Europe this summer I I don't think we're too close but uh let me say a word about this happy couple here so
00:03:10
Natalie is brilliant and Unstoppable to moth is superficial in plastic so this was like the wedding of Oppenheimer and Barbie yeah and uh in that analogy chamothy or
00:03:25
Barbie yes absolutely lots of substance and Fire and fire over here and complete
00:03:30
narcissism and plastic over here also the genitalia the same size as you can very smooth over just barely a bump yeah
00:03:38
okay I'm Gonna Leave You guys okay we'll uh we'll do a show Natalie congratulations we love you sister
00:03:44
congratulations thank you J Cal because you celebrated okay here she goes I wasn't talking
00:03:50
about Jamal I'm so clear oh yeah oh here we go here we go what a great great uh week we've had here lots of friends came in lots of friends lots of
00:04:03
special lots of Poker lots of friends lots of Poker lots of poker players that weren't invited to the wedding to the
00:04:11
poker game I mean I mean we walked into the poker game last night and there were all these guys that I didn't see at the
00:04:16
wedding and you invited these guys no no no your poker game no let's be honest let's be honest I think it was the most
00:04:24
unbelievably eclectic guest list yes of any wedding that's ever happened that's very true I mean literally it's like a
00:04:30
two by two Matrix of villainy yeah well um Fame and infamy yes I mean you had every quadrant covered yes it was incredible guy and I were joking it's like walking into the
00:04:42
bar on Tatooine yeah Star Wars guys I could tell that when I was doing my toast which shmath told me No Holds bar just go for it so as I toast he really meant roast roast yeah the Italians did
00:05:05
not get the jokes yeah half the audience was laughing the poker guys were laughing yeah and then the family
00:05:11
section A lot of them got the jokes and they were in on it but uh what an amazing week we've had here um and thank you for hosting us it was
00:05:23
absolutely wonderful this really is in so many ways wait we should cut in some shots on the video on where we're
00:05:28
sitting right now this incredible peace Club we're looking out here people switched it out I posted a photo of us
00:05:35
just meeting out there doing our little board meeting and people immediately sleuth out you're at least
00:05:43
yeah I guess famous red Beach Restaurant I mean language has these two incredible
00:05:48
restaurants in Milano three they're just top of the top and they have this incredible Beach Restaurant here and it's the hotel or sorry it's the restaurant that is beside the beach club
00:05:59
that's also owned by the splendido where we're yeah where you guys are all staying so yeah it's been it's been an
00:06:05
amazing couple days this little block is called this part is paraji and then if you go just a little bit further you're in Portofino proper yeah yeah amazing yeah wonderful food incredible food
00:06:17
unbelievable we've eaten like kings yeah and uh Queens that's the case maybe and
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uh just a Hospitality in Italy is amazing one of my favorite places I just want to say to all of you guys and to
00:06:28
all of our friends I mean you guys literally flew halfway around the world for three days yeah you did ruin all our
00:06:35
summer plans I mean it was incredible and and frankly I picked the we picked the three worst days Monday Tuesday Wednesday yeah if you had a job you had
00:06:43
to work yeah a certain person had two rooms rented at the splendido just for meetings and he would just be running
00:06:48
back meetings and then trying to go to the I mean it's incredible you guys I think this whole thing was a conspiracy
00:06:53
to convene a high-stakes poker game you knew you were spending the summer in Italy here you're like how do I get the
00:07:02
poker game to come he probably to Italy he netted a profit to cover the wedding not know not to cover the wedding but I
00:07:09
did I did win a 1.2 million dollar pot from that was crazy that was crazy my favorite Poker Story is you got a call
00:07:14
out of the blue it's the best get a text oh my God need rooms plenty though at like two in the morning and I was I looked at my phone and I'm like why is
00:07:26
texting me at two in the morning yeah need room splendido and I said it's jamaat is everything okay do you need any help need room splendido and I said
00:07:34
I'm not your [ __ ] travel coordinator and he goes can you help me get a room at the splendido hotel I said what
00:07:39
you're here so I said well why don't you just Meander into our game yeah and so he actually came to the wedding randomly
00:07:46
in the neighborhood he was in the area well he was spending a night in so he thought he would hop over here oh
00:07:58
oh that's how Works in Hollywood okay there's a little backstory to all this what happened was chamat told me in the
00:08:05
spring Hey listen Jay cow I'm finally I'm so excited I'm gonna marry Nat and I said oh that's great you had the kids and now you're getting married
00:08:11
it's not the traditional way to do it but congratulations and he said yeah we're gonna have like a little thing with our families uh in Italy very
00:08:19
bespoke the kids parents that's it and then you know back in Silicon Valley in the Bay Area we'll have a backyard party for everybody else and I said great let me know where in Italy we're going
00:08:29
and Nat said amore it's just going to be the immediate family and I said great where am I going tell me the location and uh if you need an officiant I'm in
00:08:40
and then a week later we get an email Nat and uh Tremont discussed it and they said you know what Jake house right we
00:08:47
should invite everybody to Italy and so uh thanks for making that decision oh my
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God thank you guys for coming it was a dream he didn't tell anyone Jay cow was going to officiate so we're sitting there Italian style for
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like two hours assembling for the wedding nothing happens you're all just standing around waiting for something to
00:09:05
happen and then chamoth comes in Natalie comes in beautiful dressed amazing music is incredible and they sit there for
00:09:12
another 10 minutes and they turn around and they say the offician we just got a letter of the officiant is sick we need someone we
00:09:19
need someone to step in and then Jake out pops up in the back I got it knocks the Italian royalty to the right and the left plows his way through the audience makes his way to the top pulls out his
00:09:30
American bow tie or whatever he had and says let's do this and then we had jaycal officiate you did a very J Cal
00:09:37
way yeah were you surprised yeah I was surprised you were surprised yeah a lot of people were surprised
00:09:43
your original email said Jay cow is going to officiate but then we heard nothing for two and a half months yeah
00:09:49
and no one really knew and but it was a big secret right we kept in a big secret we wanted it to be a surprise and
00:09:55
um it was just the avows and the Poetry oh the Poetry I shared was amazing amore
00:10:02
amore can you do a dramatic reading of the poem that I wrote for you oh this was uh wrote a poem
00:10:14
but we'll do the setup that comes before well so this the setup was that Nat would read
00:10:22
chamat's poems and chamatics Matt's poems and so Nat had this incredible uh Paulo Quello poems incredibly well thought out and um then uhmath wrote a poem from
00:10:36
Anonymous that he found um at a rest stop on the 280 written on the inside of the uh bathroom stall
00:10:43
roses are red violets are no go go ahead go ahead okay you remember it you should have it committed to memory let me think yeah roses are red
00:10:56
pickles are green I love your legs and what's in between oh God it's so embarrassing it was so embarrassing and
00:11:07
she had to read this she literally just dropped all of the Italians rolled laughing horrific it really was like no no one tattooing her her first
00:11:20
poem was a sonnet from Moline Shakespeare my first poem was Beyonce's cuffet yeah where where the last line is will you sit on top of me which she has to say looking at her death it was so
00:11:33
awesome it was so awkward then her second poem was uh something by Gregory Gregory Hoffman I think it was something Hoffman yep and then mine was yeah this
00:11:47
Anonymous and her third was E Cummings and mine was Dr Zeus this was nice yeah Daniel Hoffman yes but we had a great time there's been a lot of news you got here early right weren't you like
00:11:59
camping along the coastlines yes he went camping he was trying to decide to bring San Francisco to this beautiful pristine yeah defecating everywhere
00:12:10
leaving a trail of needles in his wake except needles plastic trash I did I did post a thirst trap I'm very proud I'm down 41 pounds from the peak
00:12:22
20 pounds with uh hiking and using the fasting app that Kevin Rose built and then the other half uh zero great fasting app and the other half was it was epic would go I don't understand
00:12:33
what does an app do to help you fast it's just fast you click a button do you eat the app guess an animation and then
00:12:39
counts down the clock when you're trying to decide whether to eat or not you push a button should I eat or not and it says
00:12:44
no yeah it shows you a picture of yourself that's what I did I took a picture of myself like fat Jason and I just every time I open the refrigerator it's there
00:12:56
okay your question yeah is it is it are you not allowed to talk about like fatness now or I I have strong
00:13:04
feelings on this I think when I I ran marathons my whole life I was very schvelt 165 pounds until I was 32 and then I added two three pounds until you
00:13:15
guys knew me and I hit 213 at my Peak on 171 now 172. and um you know I wish more
00:13:24
people would have done an intervention you were very clear with me hey you got to lose weight oh my God I have to tell you I'm telling the story I can't
00:13:31
[ __ ] Spike the story I'm talking the story no no no no you can't Spike the story now this is your wedding present
00:13:36
to me okay thank you jaycal jcal is bordering on morbidly obese when I was 213. and you're helpful five nine on a good day five and a half yeah on a good day by the way for all for all
00:13:50
these people on Twitter everybody who who meets me always says oh you look so much shorter on camera maybe it's
00:13:55
because I slouched but I'm six foot two just in case everybody's curious on a good day anyways jaycal jcal is is
00:14:02
bordering on morbidly obese so I make a weight bed with him yeah I was 213 I said I can get to 193. one yeah 193 and
00:14:09
I was like I'll give you 10K a pound or something whatever it's 100K bad it was a hundred thousand dollar bet
00:14:15
he had a year a year goes by I put it in my calendar and what I do is I schedule the poker game uh-oh for the day before knowing
00:14:28
that we're gonna play through midnight so I'm like oh I'm gonna set this guy up so I waited a whole year
00:14:33
unbelievable we play poker the clock strikes midnight and he had been eating pizza and ice cream ice cream
00:14:41
thousand dollars what did I say hey it's time it's 1201 it's time for the week he says one weight button and I said [ __ ] you made a wave bet with me
00:14:53
a year ago I have been 192 193 for months I have hit the thing so he says he starts panicking because I weigh myself in the morning he says he's panicking he says okay give me a few
00:15:05
minutes he runs into my child's bedroom and takes a [ __ ] I did not pre-agree that I had to that I could pick the time so he says I have
00:15:33
until midnight which is true so I said okay fine he goes home goes home I go and this does not eat he puts on a sweatsuit I go for a run-up like Rocky around San Francisco he sweats for four
00:15:45
hours he gets like a tenth of a pound under before midnight yes and he's like you owe me a hundred thousand dollars no
00:15:51
then he was kind yeah he said look put me in the mini one for one drop 100 drop and we'll both go and we'll pull it and we'll chop it up we had a great time Jake got lost in the first eight hands and that's not sure I lasted longer than
00:16:04
you 100K I should just leave it okay back to you but anyway but I would say on in terms of weight it is pernicious in America I don't think we should be celebrating it or tolerating it I think
00:16:17
we should be compassionate I think ozampic and when Govi um are incredible tools and Manjaro
00:16:23
um I I don't I I didn't talk about it for the first year David you've done it as well and you've been honest that you've tried wagovi or whatever and you
00:16:29
lost a lot of weight so congratulations uh these guys have been skinny forever but um I think take it seriously it
00:16:36
takes a lot of discipline uh but it can be done and um I encourage people the gains I've gotten from being 40 pounds lighter have been tremendous um I feel great my energy level is
00:16:48
different uh my thinking is different my sleep's better everything's great and so I just want to be around for a long time so that we can do a thousand episodes of
00:16:55
the show for you and the fans and um yeah being fat sucks the end and if you think but do you think it's it's being normalized and do you think that that's healthy what do you think I
00:17:07
like I I think right into the microphone no one no one makes no one chooses obesity
00:17:13
obesity is a struggle just like diabetes no no one chooses diabetes diabetes is a struggle I've you know done some work
00:17:20
made some Investments been on the board of some companies that have been involved in trying to address the needs in this space and one of the things that
00:17:27
we've learned a lot about is how much of a social stigma it feels people that are struggling with obesity and struggling
00:17:33
with diabetes don't feel comfortable actively talking about it yeah because they hold a deep amount of Shame about it yes they recognize that there's
00:17:40
something deeply unhealthy about it and they feel deep shame because they're often portrayed as having the choice and
00:17:47
making the decisions that got them to this point yeah and the truth is we live in a world with extraordinary abundance
00:17:53
in the first world we live in a world with extraordinary opportunities for low-cost calorie consumption we find a
00:17:58
lot of joy in our lifestyles and it you know ultimately living a happy life can lead people to a very sad place um and so generally I would say that this is not something
00:18:11
that should be uh stigmatized in in an open way it should be treated with compassion but it should be spoken about
00:18:17
openly which is that there is a challenge and a struggle that people have and we need to help
00:18:22
and everyone needs to kind of be cognizant of the fact that that's the thing I think we need to I think we're normalizing it and I think it's wrong
00:18:28
yes I I when I first came to Canada you see the pictures when I was like fresh off the boat that's what we used
00:18:34
to call immigrants I was real thin skinny real thin and then after a year of eating whatever
00:18:42
food it was that we could afford yeah I became really fat and you could see it in the pictures and I was fat
00:18:47
all through my grade school I was a little skinny but skinny fat in the face but basically fat all through high
00:18:54
school and then I finally started working out and taking care of myself and it had a huge impact on my
00:18:59
self-esteem and my self-confidence it had a huge impact on my health yep I saw it basically kill my father it's given
00:19:05
seven eleven of my aunts and uncles diabetes so I think that like all of this normalization is unhealthy because
00:19:12
it actually is killing people what I learned from the dieting is portion control in America is just out of control it is the wrong portion sizes so you see it here and you
00:19:25
see it here when you eat here here's a little Tuna here's a small pasta yeah you know here's some cheese and some
00:19:31
grapes for dessert you're done and so once I got my portion control I was fine snacking also but I just wish anybody
00:19:37
who's suffering from it um you know work with your doctors work with nutritionists you were overweight too for a long time where are you
00:19:43
Free Bird yeah I um what were you overweight from I I grew up not eating well I was overweight in college right in the microphone college is when I really started to get exercise actively
00:19:55
and because it was never part of my upbringing as a kid was like eat well get exercise I I was very much
00:20:02
self-taught I've learned how to cook and learned a lot about nutrition on my own um and you know look I I took action on
00:20:09
my own uh in my early 20s so but yeah look I mean it's so easy to not know where you find yourself and then you
00:20:15
find yourself in this place and I do agree that being cognizant of where you are and addressing it in an
00:20:21
open way in an active way is the only path I mean there's just every every cycle we come around with some new easy
00:20:28
solution you guys remember the uh what was it yeah and so look I mean the data so far looks great uh with these glp
00:20:40
um these drugs seem to be very effective there's some data now that shows as soon
00:20:46
as you stop taking it or the average person on it gains the weight right back no that didn't happen for me increased
00:20:51
muscle mass maybe not but like yeah you know across a large population there's just data that's showing there's never
00:20:57
going to be an easy path and it's a very difficult um it's a process you know the the thing I
00:21:03
learned is if you just have like one Oreo a day or every other day let's say that's 50 calories you have one of those every other day you're going to gain two pounds a year for 20 years now you're 40 pounds overweight it
00:21:14
happens very slowly you add it and then you just have to be super disciplined and you can lose a half a pound or a pound a week and then it can come off so
00:21:22
um I really think it should be a movement in the United States so much of our Downstream issues diabetes heart
00:21:28
disease cancer Etc seem to be contributed by obesity so I think for our entire for the entire country I think if I ran for president it would be
00:21:39
wagovi for everybody everybody is my platform single issue voters there's a platform that's it single issue platform um all right get in shape there's some
00:21:51
news I think um we could we could touch on how you feeling yeah playing a catch let's do this so there was an article in
00:21:57
Vice I guess that name checked the all-in podcast has said young people instead of wanting to become McKinsey
00:22:04
Consultants now want to become members of the all-in podcast and be venture capital list I did a little tweet storm
00:22:10
that I thought and I thought it'd be a great topic for us I I think for young people going into Venture early is not a
00:22:17
good idea I think generally speaking 80 of the case cases and I think starting your own company or
00:22:25
joining a high Growth Company or maybe joining a well-run large company or even joining a poorly run large company so you learn what not to do are all better things to do in your
00:22:37
20s learn be in the trenches but I'm curious what you think sax yeah about this issue because we came to venture and investing in our 40s I believe you
00:22:47
know both of us Angel Investors and then both of us having fun so what are you advising a young person who's listening
00:22:52
to the podcast coming out of business school whatever yeah I agree with that um I think the main value prop that a VC has to offer a
00:23:02
Founder is advice and if you've never walked in the founder shoes before if you've never
00:23:07
founded a company or at least had a significant operating role how are you in a position to offer them advice
00:23:13
now I think there's a period of time during the bull market where people stopped thinking that way stop thinking
00:23:21
that advice was the model VCS started competing on the basis of who could be the biggest cheerleader for the founder
00:23:27
who could offer the most sort of positive emotional support largest valuation or the biggest valuation or
00:23:33
least governance the idea of being completely passive not taking a board seat was actually sold to Founders as a
00:23:40
positive for them that like we'll invest and we'll dislike State completely out of the way and all of those ideas
00:23:46
sounded really good when the market was booming and everything was up and to the right but now we're in a situation in
00:23:53
which we're going through two years of intense turmoil and a lot of companies aren't going to make it a lot of
00:23:59
companies are restructuring a lot of companies are going to take down rounds and actually being able to tap your
00:24:04
board for advice on how to get through a rough patch actually is pretty important
00:24:10
you realize now that like the uninvolved passive investor that was not a positive
00:24:16
value prop that was an excuse for not having a value prop and I think at times like this it's really important to have
00:24:24
VCS who've been around the block who saw the last downturn who ideally could have
00:24:29
warned you that it was coming like we did on this podcast repeatedly for you know 18 months yeah
00:24:36
and so yeah I think that we're now seeing the correction and I I firmly agree with your analysis that
00:24:42
there are too many people who join the ranks of VC who formally didn't have a value prop and that's why I mean in our
00:24:48
firm we required that everyone who joins the investment team have operating experience and ideally founder experience uh because that is ultimately
00:24:56
what you're going to offer Founders chamoth was too much of this people LARPing live action role-playing
00:25:02
VC with just absolutely no idea how this works and now what happens to those you
00:25:09
know actor or VCS who really are faced with portfolios that are upside down and they really have no idea how to weather a storm it's this has been a hard 18 months let's be honest well I think that
00:25:21
it was a symptom of just the fact that there was a lot of free money in the system and I don't know the outcome is going to
00:25:28
be pretty basic which is that they're going to lose money for their limited partners and those limited partners if
00:25:35
they're not totally stupid will never give these people money again and these people will need to just find a new job
00:25:40
and I don't say that in a celebratory way it's just a very practical ones and zeros monetary assessment of the facts
00:25:48
look I think that the weird thing that has happened is that it became like this kind of fun thing to be able to say you were doing a lot of people used to Moonlight and do it on the side then there were all these services that will
00:25:59
allow you to basically like abstract the job but the only thing that I would just qualify your statement because I think
00:26:06
what you're saying is like 90 right but I don't think that's where the craziest outcome returns have come from because if you look at the two people that are really or the three people that
00:26:17
have really generated just gargantuan home run Returns on a consistent basis one of them for example like Mike Moritz
00:26:23
really didn't have those Bona fides operationally but I think that what Mike probably has and I'm saying this not knowing him is a preternatural like judge of psychology I think I think he's
00:26:37
an incredibly qualified people judger and there are people like that now he's an outlier in order to do that but the rest of us have to kind of to your point do with what we have which is like
00:26:48
here's our experience and our maturity and you know we're telling you what we think so I'm really excited actually for
00:26:54
this wave to kind of crash on Shore because the number of Founders that are going to get screwed over by folks that
00:27:01
don't know what they're talking about it's very high yeah and that needs to come to an end as quickly as possible yeah I don't think it's just Mike Moritz
00:27:08
I think that there's a class of successful venture capitalist Bill gurley's a great example like he was an
00:27:14
analyst Danny reimert index Ventures was an investment analyst Fred Wilson um Fred Wilson yeah a lifetime VC yeah and Moritz John door I mean John doors
00:27:26
um but there's there are folks who have an incredible analytical capacity and that analytical capacity translates
00:27:34
into incredible selection capability that selection doesn't necessarily mean that they are going to necessarily be the best advisors and I'm not saying that any of those folks are bad advisors but there are some Venture investors
00:27:46
like Founders fund is very vocal about this and very public about this that their objective is not to be your
00:27:51
partner in helping you make decisions and run your company and recruit people and all the other sort of rigmarole that
00:27:57
many VCS go out and count they are there to pick the best Founders and the best Founders don't need the VC to be successful and their job then is to have incredible selection capacity so if they
00:28:08
can select the best Founders and get out of their way they've made a lot of money and their returns are unbelievable and
00:28:15
then there are some VCS who are really incredible Partners to their Founders and their objective Josh koppelman at
00:28:21
first round built an entire firm around this practice which is to partner very closely with Founders and to build
00:28:26
support and capabilities Andreessen Horowitz was built on the same sort of concept that they would roll all of
00:28:32
their fees into building operating support and capacity to support Founders and support companies both firms have
00:28:37
obviously done well in their own right um and so I don't know if there's necessarily one breed that predicts success when it comes to successful
00:28:44
venture capital I will say from my own personal experience I worked as an investment banker for my first two years out of undergrad I you know worked I had
00:28:51
a science background I worked in a short stint in private Equity I worked at Google I did Corp Dev and M A there I
00:28:57
started a company ran it sold it did that with another business where I was on the board so you know I've I've
00:29:03
been on a couple of different places around the table that you know I think have given me the ability to to provide
00:29:10
advice I don't know if I necessarily have the same skill set that the team at Founders fund and
00:29:16
um Mike Moritz and others might have at this astute extraordinary ability to spot Founders and bring them in so I
00:29:22
think everyone needs to kind of recognize what they do bring to the table be very clear about what that is and I think to your point there have
00:29:28
just been an incredible bull market over the last 15 years since 2008 more money has I heard an incredible statistic by
00:29:34
the way um I don't want to get it wrong so maybe we should fact check me after this from someone at your wedding uh who I was
00:29:41
talking to for a long time and he was like because like basically the top one percent of VCS didn't beat what would
00:29:48
have happened if you just bought the top five public tech companies and you know effectively did a rebalance over the
00:29:54
past 15 years the bull market and the um the aggregation of value in technology has largely been 50 50 to public and
00:30:00
private so you could have just bought a few stocks and held on to them and beat all of the VCS over the last 15 years
00:30:07
even though a bunch of VCS have made good money and their irr looks like 12 percent but you have to be the risk adjusted Returns on Ventures and this is
00:30:14
not to throw shade at even all of those people that you mentioned are [ __ ] terrible like you should not have invested in any
00:30:21
of those right because there's no way to ton it in any of those funds because you get a small allocation One Fund does
00:30:27
well three funds here over the past 10 years or 15 years I forgot the number we've seen the public market cap of
00:30:35
these top tech companies grow from 1 trillion to 10 trillion that's a 10x so all you had to do was buy those and you would have made 10x and that works out to north of 25 irr yeah and there's very
00:30:45
few VCS that have been able to beat 25 irr they assume now he was telling me his model shows that over the next 10
00:30:51
years it'll be roughly 70 30. um so it'll be about 30 percent will agree and they think over the next 10 years it's
00:30:57
gonna go from 10 trillion to 25 trillion which is still a great return but it shows how much of a hurdle there is in
00:31:03
venture to be successful I started the business in 2011 so now this is the 12th or 13th year just how hard this game is
00:31:10
I had about a 31 32 gross irr going into last year and then my irr fell off a cliff because I couldn't get into obviously there's like there's no money yeah distribute well there's nothing to distribute so my
00:31:23
IRS start to Decay and then I had this really really [ __ ] up choice I have to start selling stuff earlier than I would
00:31:29
have otherwise to get the money back out so to your point right now it takes courage then it it's a really tough game
00:31:36
over here yeah a really tough game I think there's also something going on you know in the United States and
00:31:43
Society where there are some idealized jobs we talked about Saks Elites Surplus Elites and I I want to dovetail this
00:31:50
with what's happening in Hollywood the rider strike um and the actor strike and I was looking at it there's some unbelievable
00:31:57
number of actors in Sag some unbelievable number of writers they all make uh just incredibly small amounts of
00:32:03
money uh on average and obviously there's some big fish who do well but it does seem like
00:32:09
there's too many people who want too many of these idealized jobs and Venture is one of those and I I just would like young people to understand also be careful what you wish for this
00:32:22
job has seemed easy just like it might seem easy for Tom Cruise or Christopher Nolan when you see them or Tarantino
00:32:29
what you don't see is all of the people who tried to become Tarantino who tried to become you know Tom Cruise and there
00:32:36
are far to 10 to 15 years before they realize that they're not and they did not actually have the fundamental skills
00:32:43
or the work ethic that is required to become Tarantino I listened to Tarantino's podcast he does a have you
00:32:49
heard the video archives podcast yet you have to get on this it's him and his the co-writer of um who did you write Pulp
00:32:55
Fiction with Roger Avery Roger him and Roger Avery my favorite podcast right now they just talk about films their
00:33:02
knowledge of films is so unbelievable and the detail in which they talk about that it is so crisp they finish each other's sentences in the way with maybe you
00:33:15
listen to this podcast you know we all go oh John door no he worked at Intel oh this person yeah Moritz he was a
00:33:21
journalist we have a deep deep understanding of this business that comes from 30 years within it or 20
00:33:27
years and I think you have to I know it sounds corny but you have to pay your dues you have to put 60 70 hours in a
00:33:34
week to get that Elite job and the problem today I feel is and for people who are listening who are young people coming out of schools if you're not willing to sacrifice 60 70 80 hours a
00:33:45
week for a decade or two you're just not going to be successful in that by the way and young people push back on this
00:33:51
and I think the simplest way to reframe it is in the following do you really think for example let's
00:33:58
pick NBA basketball do you think you would be really interested or find credible that the
00:34:04
best player in the NBA only practiced three hours a week does that happen impossible where do you
00:34:11
think they're practicing three hours in the morning and then also three hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives the most incredible thing that I
00:34:17
saw in the NBA was all of these men literally gave up their life to play that game to perfect it and that's true for anything and so I don't understand how whether if
00:34:28
you're a filmmaker whether you want to be an investor whether you want to be an athlete whether you want to be an actor a surgeon
00:34:34
it's just like it's an immutable law of physics so to just get over it which is you need to put in tens of thousands of
00:34:41
hours and if you cannot or won't you should not expect the success and you should not complain and also because it's not free yeah these these guys do you agree with that or not yeah look I
00:34:53
mean LeBron 20 what was it 2016 when they came back and won in game seven 2016 yeah
00:34:59
right but um the next day they were you know his teammates go out and celebrate you know
00:35:05
what LeBron did on Instagram the next day posted a photo at 7 A.M yeah working out
00:35:11
um but look one thing I'll say LeBron knows what his skill is and he knows what his game is I think every individual needs to figure out what
00:35:18
their skill is and what their game is and not to find glory in what others have found to be their skill and their
00:35:25
game that there is something that comes from mastering any craft that gives an individual joy and purpose in life and you see this in basketball you see it when these athletes really find what
00:35:35
they love and they do it and they commit to it and there are things that we each have realized we are good at and there are things that we've all certainly
00:35:41
realized we are not good at and identifying that and mastering one's craft is the key to any person being
00:35:47
successful and happy I believe I just just assuming that there's a thing out there that everyone makes money
00:35:52
distraction alert all of our wives are about to go swimming oh my God they're so hot
00:35:57
look at my wife Jesus God Almighty I have the jackpots Beauty and the Beast huh you can relate huh we were joking at breakfast today we
00:36:10
were like my wife must have low self-esteem because she's married to me Sox had the best line he's like if you
00:36:15
Google Natalie don't pay you find this picture of her holding a tiger a lion by the tail which is a lot more exciting than holding a Sri Lankan by the schlong
00:36:28
[Laughter] you know what happened cat told me what happened so the backstory is Phil hammuth is a narcissist no no that if
00:36:51
you know Phil hot moves you know that yeah that's implied and he just cannot give a speech and he's your best friend we oh he's not my best friend
00:36:58
um but he's he he gives horrible speeches every speech well Phil every speech he gives at every event it's all about himself it's all about himself that's
00:37:10
why we say seven seconds to fail but it's incredible because it could be it could be a wedding a bar mitzvah a
00:37:16
funeral it doesn't matter a little bit but in our chat so when when jamas said okay Phil's gonna give a speech Phil's
00:37:22
like of course I'm gonna give a speech every speech I give is amazing everything
00:37:28
he goes the last event I gave a speech it brought the house down everyone was laughing I killed it it was Doyle brunson's Funeral oh my God
00:37:40
no dude dude what what you killed him at a funeral so I asked I asked Tommy to do to do
00:37:47
this toast and I was like okay well we'll do four of them but I thought if we start with helmuth it'll just be so bad yeah you bought him out early yeah
00:37:53
you bought him out early and then the rest of you guys set the bar yeah from the right sequence but sax crushed it
00:37:59
nailed it crushed it I think we're all still amazed up the stairs it was 400 steps to that uh yeah
00:38:13
um it looks good that's pretty impressive yeah well this has been a great episode of the only part did anybody see Oppenheimer yet I'm
00:38:20
so excited how do we see it it's going to be a barberheimer double feature in honor of the barberheimer wedding yeah
00:38:32
Nolan's like so about 70 millimeter prints he's like you have to watch it and you know the metronome Metreon in
00:38:37
the city is it so we should just rent to the theater and invite some fans or just go yeah I mean we should do that right there let's rent it this week I've
00:38:44
rented it before it's I think it's sold out until like a very limited time oh the theater is we just have to call them and say hey can we rent the thing
00:38:50
they'll do a show here's 20 dimes I once I went to a showing of um Interstellar there and Christopher
00:38:56
Nolan came and spoke and got to meet him and speak to him afterwards he's a very soft-spoken guy and he's not very
00:39:01
sociable he doesn't you know sort of like sex he doesn't want to make eye contact and actually talk with you but you know we challenge you are you making
00:39:07
fun of people with Asperger's but he was great I mean I know pot it's Kettle calling I will say um he's he's what cop three
00:39:20
filmmakers of our time top four there's uh for me it's Ridley Scott Tarantino Nolan there's a very funny
00:39:27
moment where's your list sax right now you gotta put Scorsese on that list oh right of course
00:39:33
no Woody Allen can we mention that name I mean say that bleep it's hard to watch now it's hard to watch the whole time I I like uh it makes it too hard I like uh
00:39:52
no nick nick there's a very funny moment on the the first the first dinner yeah you know we did this great thing Nick peep out the names when sat down
00:40:04
everybody's like the and I was waiting for David to sit yeah and he just keep talking and talking
00:40:11
yeah talking and talking and finally NatWest like sit the [ __ ] down right now and had to get this [ __ ] thing going
00:40:18
so who do you got you got Score says yeah of course yeah you're talking about like currently alive filmmakers I think
00:40:23
active filmmakers Melissa mentions pretty good um I don't have to think about it for missing anybody
00:40:29
yeah really Scott's up there for you yeah yeah really Scott yeah I mean he's still making Christopher Nolan is pretty
00:40:35
excellent he's very productive too every two years versatility Michael Bay number one but um I met Michael Bay in Costa Rica
00:40:53
for Transformers no I mean like I I didn't particularly know who he was cannot watch any of his films I cannot
00:40:58
watch any of those yeah he's like a very nice guy yeah I'm sure he's great um so uh also he's got Napoleon coming out
00:41:05
the trailer looks amazing amazing anything with Watkins no no no no no no really Scott oh Ridley
00:41:11
Scott walking Phoenix playing Napoleon it's kind of interesting I hate to go deep into the um do you guys want to
00:41:18
talk about desert bad behavior or you want to talk about the resolution of this Hollywood stuff and what it means writ large well the Hollywood stuff I
00:41:25
think it's fascinating I tweeted about this a couple weeks ago my observations on this were twofold one is that it's
00:41:30
gonna have the exact opposite effect that they want if what they want is what the writers and the Actors Guild want
00:41:36
is to show the owners of the studios how valuable they are the problem is that this moves the owners and the studios one step closer into the hands of tools
00:41:48
that will disintermediate the actors and the writers they'll Embrace that technology they'll embrace the AI tools
00:41:55
that you guys have talked about you are showing something around even like yesterday whatever so like the point is
00:42:00
like I don't see it as very effective and then my second thought is like I just think unions in general are
00:42:07
probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay and you can just see that in terms of like the number of people in unions are just
00:42:19
kind of decaying pretty quickly the wage gains are pretty de minimis it's just not an effective mechanism of
00:42:25
negotiation sax the unions are a way for average performers to fight to get a little bit
00:42:31
more but right it's the antithesis of having a meritocracy and people fighting for their best possible pay and so the conundrum I have is I'm seeing all these
00:42:42
Marvel actors superhero actors getting dropped off at the protests and they're complaining about Bob Iger making 25
00:42:49
million when Tom Cruise or you know Robert Downey Jr pick the person I'm not singling anybody out but those people who got to the top of the Heap after 20 30 40 years in the business are getting
00:43:00
paid 50 million a picture 100 million a picture of back ends and and so what's your take on what's going on here
00:43:07
because there it's I don't want to say hypocritical but it feels like they're talking out of both sides of their mouth they want to have an auction to the highest bidder
00:43:18
for these incredibly talented writers directors producers as it should be but then they also want to fight for the
00:43:24
average right it's confusing because some of the Union demands I think are reasonable and I understand why they
00:43:29
want them so for example I think they're arguing for more residuals for like you
00:43:34
said the kind of lower level performers so that they can get health care yeah average ones yeah so I I can understand
00:43:40
that at the same time they're demanding that writer's rooms not use AI software which they're already doing yeah which it's just crazy because AI is going to be incorporated into all software so to
00:43:51
not be able to use the latest features of whatever word or Google Docs or whatever screenwriting software yes that's like the king who ordered the tides to stop you know this is the march of technology is not going to work so I
00:44:03
think that's like really off base so I can sympathize with some of the demands other ones I think are hard to see in
00:44:08
terms of your point about the economics I mean look the basic problem about with Hollywood is it's a winner take all
00:44:14
business I mean you've got a few actors who become big stars this is true actually with all the creative
00:44:20
Industries is there power law businesses you know JK Rowling makes a billion dollars as an author the 10 000 author
00:44:30
or whatever yeah that makes sense of fantasy person makes a living yeah exactly yeah can't even make a living
00:44:36
and the reason for that by the way is because there's a lot of people going to do it for free humans are fundamentally
00:44:41
creative there's a lot of people willing to be actors for free or sure honestly or writers or write or whatever
00:44:48
creatively because they're willing to do their art for free podcasters right and so the reality is the reason Hollywood
00:44:54
doesn't have to pay these sort of the entry-level actors very much is there's a lot of people willing to do that job
00:45:00
there's too many people a lot of people and it doesn't need to be in a structured production system anyway anymore I you guys saw the latest Disney
00:45:08
earnings release and Iger said we are going to consider selling Nat Geo and a bunch of our other channels there may actually be a spin-off because content creation for the that mid tier or that
00:45:19
tail no longer makes sense not viable profitable because there's so much content being generated by this very
00:45:25
long tail that's accruing a lot of the eyeballs and a lot of the hours of consumers mindset and time I think that
00:45:31
there's a big just can I connect that idea so we were talking earlier about career choices so first of all it's it's
00:45:37
I agree with what you guys said about the time commit you have to make but it's not really about time per se it's
00:45:42
about your obsession level can you be obsessed with something so that 60 70 hours a week feels like nothing to you because you're so immersed you're so obsessed with it right the way that Tarantino and Avery are obsessed with
00:45:53
classic films have the whole database in their head so if you want to pursue one of these careers in a winner take all
00:46:00
space like writing like acting or whatever you better just be completely obvious you gotta be all in yeah you got
00:46:05
to be all in I'd say furthermore and be unique like what makes you novel yeah I mean even if you are all in you still
00:46:13
have to have luck yeah and scale and yeah and furthermore you have to know where the bar is so I think a lot of people this is one things I noticed when
00:46:19
I was producing a movie is a lot of people look at like the worst actor or the worst screenwriter and say I'm
00:46:26
better than that person so I'm gonna make it but your bar is not the worst person who's made it your law is the best person who hasn't made it that's the person you're really competing next
00:46:36
up it's the next stop it's the person you're going on auditions and you're competing against someone who hasn't made it yet but they're amazing and you
00:46:43
don't necessarily know where that bar is because it's much harder to see yeah but that's where the bar really is right
00:46:48
look I think there's also so a big disruption really well said yeah totally and as we extend the long tail of
00:46:55
consumer content creation into what is effectively now the infinite tale of AI generation AI generated content creation it is going to totally disrupt and change the game of media of content
00:47:07
generally speaking we're getting to a point now where you can effectively tie together rendering engines with
00:47:14
scripting with scene definition with directorial lines all the stuff that it goes into pre-production and production
00:47:20
can be generated uh through through AI through scripting and then tuned and tweaked by a human But ultimately it increases the scale like all Technologies do it increases leverage
00:47:31
for humans and we could see a hundred times more films come out Each of which costs 1 100 the cost you know one of the
00:47:37
best production companies in La is blumhouse you know they make horror films two million dollars they make them for two million bucks and they make a
00:47:43
bunch of them because they cost so little to make and if any one of them hits they make 180 million bucks or 200 million bucks at the box office to
00:47:49
Fantastic genre films it's very much a unique model in Hollywood and it's really changed the game quite a bit and
00:47:55
I think we're going to see something similar emerge because of generative Ai and the tooling and then people start to question what is it called
00:48:01
what is it called uh but um one thing one thing I do want to say I do think that there's also a change in Hollywood that's going to be driven as we talked about before by the ability to
00:48:12
generate personalized film personalized content um rather than one piece of content for everyone where you have to make
00:48:18
Blockbusters and everyone watches it there is a question however of culture and culture is you know shared
00:48:25
experience stories and beliefs shared experience stories and beliefs can still be realized through personalized media through personalized um content generation think about you know an old
00:48:36
narrative an old tale that was told you know via uh people speaking to each other around a campfire the ethics and
00:48:42
the morals of the story are still there but everyone tells it a little bit differently I think that's what we may end up seeing Hollywood production or AI
00:48:48
generated Productions everyone tweaks their content in their own personal way they consume it in their own way but the
00:48:54
Hollywood Studios how much of a role do they ultimately end up playing and does this start to go 10 times more what
00:49:00
we've seen in YouTube content consumption goes way up and the number of folks that are contributing to it
00:49:05
goes way up by 10 or 100x I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and Hollywood have not yet
00:49:12
groked completely which is they're not fighting each other they're fighting Tick-Tock YouTube podcasts and people
00:49:18
making their own content they're fighting people they're fighting Jimmy Donaldson they're fighting Mr they're
00:49:24
fighting they're fighting each other over the last scratch the people that spend two hours a week listening to us rant on about stuff right like they're fighting two Less
00:49:35
hours that's what I'm saying it's two Less hours of broadcast TV and then Mr Beast these kids watch his videos five
00:49:41
times they watch three minutes he's probably the only person in recent memory that has rebuilt uh event based
00:49:49
viewership because people know Saturday mornings at noon eastern time is when these videos Drop hundreds of millions
00:49:56
it's appointment television it's appointment television now back by the way when you hear you know the story
00:50:02
about Mr Beast that's a guy that's been doing it since he was 13 years old studying he's 24 years old so that's 11
00:50:08
years where he's literally only lived and breathed everything in the last generation in the lab down to the very
00:50:15
pixel right like when he for example like the cuts remember watch his cuts on his video remember he told us about like
00:50:21
thumbnails he has an entire PhD thesis that he's learned just on thumbnails yeah right and that's a level of commit
00:50:27
I think what Hollywood needs to do just to put it out there is the the leadership in Hollywood gets
00:50:33
compensated on a corporate level and then they come up with this you know pay and sometimes residuals sometimes not and scraps for the talent I would encourage them to read something like an
00:50:45
autobiography by Kurosawa and study the Touhou system where everybody was aligned inside the company if I'm
00:50:52
running Disney I'm hiring the top two or three hundred Riders putting them full-time on staff giving them equity and getting everybody rowing in the
00:50:58
right direction they do not have time to [ __ ] around they need to be in alignment making great content but the incentive
00:51:04
structure matters if Bob Iger is getting compensated by stock options the actors
00:51:10
Robert Downey Jr who's the guy the incredible director of swingers and Favreau I was talking to Fabro at an event and I was like how much like equity in Disney did you get for doing
00:51:23
Mandalorian and like launching Disney Plus for them and he's like zero zero but then I'm like
00:51:31
and this is what's crazy if you look at the biggest content producers of that older generation they locked up the
00:51:36
equity you know Spielberg owns equity in the movies that he makes George Lucas owns equity in the movies
00:51:43
cut on um on Oppenheimer no I think he gets uh 20 of the gross off the first dollar that's absurd yeah and he got a 100 million dollar budget and 100 million marketing commit uh on the on
00:51:55
the the deal uh Joker was uh Todd Phillips well this is a perfect example I was talking to Tom Phillips actually um I got to have dinner with him last time great guy yeah yeah great guy and
00:52:05
he waved his fee on Joker to take a big chunk of the equity because Todd Phillips is very sat on the hangover and he owned the IP of The Hangover he owned the sequels and hangover one and two
00:52:18
amazing hangover three that you can miss it yeah but he made more I think on hangover three yeah and he got all those
00:52:25
guys Galifianakis et cetera they got their biggest Payday on their number three right you have to craft a deal we
00:52:30
have Equity the other the studio the studio was less bullish than he was on both hangover and Joker because it shows
00:52:37
you how unusual movies so they allowed him to test equity in exchange for giving backers they're like you only
00:52:42
want to spend 50 million on a superhero film that's never gonna work and then he's like yeah it made a billion Joker
00:52:48
made a billion right but they thought it was too dark yeah underestimating audiences as always I'll tell you a very
00:52:54
funny Poker Story without Phillips your Disney stock uh right now I'm gonna ride it out I think their IP collection is
00:53:00
amazing I think there's a chance that you know depending on how uh the FTC winds up being run over the long term
00:53:07
that Disney could be um selling pieces of that business and I think that it could become an
00:53:13
acquisition Target itself at some point you want to hear a Todd Phillips Poker Story I play a part with him yeah he's uh he's fine Phillips is a very very
00:53:20
disciplined poker player you know he's got like a stop loss he hits the stop loss he's done and he's very funny and
00:53:28
jokes around you know bus balls whatever and there was a while where he would play in the big game in LA with us and
00:53:36
he didn't say much he was very focused and tight is right and then he did this deal and then hangover three comes out
00:53:41
and all of a sudden you know he's got chirping chips he's splashing the pot I bust Phillips in a pot and he looks at me and he called me Slumdog billionaire
00:53:53
the guys at the table thought it was so funny because that movie Slumdog Millionaire had just come out yeah so
00:53:59
then they all started calling me slummy slum talking to me that's gonna stick it took me a year for them to get stop
00:54:05
calling me that yeah yeah pretty great on the union thing I'll tell you a story so recently it was just announced that Anchor Steam shut down anchorstein was
00:54:13
this beer this native beer in San Francisco that's been around forever Japanese Brewery bought them right it
00:54:18
was bought by Sapporo several years ago and Anchor's theme shut down Christine me yeah I used to go there all the time
00:54:24
for like work events you do like an off-site there and go to the brewery yeah it was like one of The Originals yeah
00:54:31
it's out of business now and the reason is well it was losing money and you want
00:54:37
to know why is because three years ago the workers all voted to unionize there were only something like 60 workers 62
00:54:43
workers and three years ago they vote to unionize and they voted themselves big pay increases yeah and so I guess
00:54:49
Sapporo had to go along with it three years later it supports it's like yeah shut the whole thing down
00:54:54
um and that and that's and that's the things you got to be careful what you wish I really think the thing with unions that they get wrong is unions
00:55:01
fight for exactly this which is this short-term increase in current compensation and I think what unions do
00:55:09
very poorly is actually understanding the long-term Equity that the employees and members of that Union actually
00:55:16
create I tweeted this a few weeks ago as well but the single biggest reason that
00:55:22
motivated me when I sold my piece of the Warriors was obviously just the crazy increase in the valuation right I bought it for you know 300 600 300 and it was
00:55:33
worth 5.2 billion at the time whatever but the second biggest reason was my huge fear
00:55:38
was that I as an owner I just wanted to cash in the chips because I think the most right thing to do for the Union like the NBA Players Association is to
00:55:48
fight for Equity yeah if like Michael Jordan single-handedly has created 15 billion dollars of equity in the NBA yep how much has he captured one or two billion but not from the league he
00:56:01
captured it accidentally from shoes right how much money is LeBron James actually created for the NBA it's
00:56:07
enormous yep how much is he he made captions they're not trying to get the right pieces they're not trying to get
00:56:13
the right also when the business doesn't do well then the the labor contracts become a source of huge inflexibility
00:56:19
huge influence you can't make the necessary business change so it's your point the businesses get shut down don't to your point like when you when what
00:56:26
happens now is there's these huge luxury taxes in professional sports and so folks bloat the payroll they try
00:56:32
to get all these players but if you don't win and get to the playoffs you're not selling more merch you're not getting incremental share of TV revenues
00:56:40
you're not getting ticket revenues and all of a sudden you have these massive luxury taxes you have to pay and not
00:56:46
enough Revenue to pay for it and so these teams all of a sudden now start to gush money have to make Capital calls
00:56:52
because these things that sound incredible up front start to become real weights on these businesses the real
00:56:58
thing all unions in all Industries I would I would tell you all to do is figure out how to get the equity upside
00:57:04
in the business in which your members are working in and are creating value it right in exchange for that have more
00:57:11
forgiveness on the downside to the business it's actually personally whether the storm is supposed to have to
00:57:16
shut down exactly alignment you know align the incentives are just so critical I was talking to the head of
00:57:22
one of the giant Publishers I wouldn't say which one giveness Insider I don't know which one it was but um they were being unionized and I said wow is this a disaster for your business
00:57:33
he says uh Jake how greatest thing ever I said why he's like now when people come to us and they want to get paid
00:57:39
more we just take out the chart how many years have you been here oh five okay yeah one two three four five seventy two
00:57:45
thousand and they said well no but I bring more pages or whatever it's like yeah okay yeah page view multiplier 0.15
00:57:51
okay so you're 70 AK and then just basically what happens at Business Insider yeah but that's kind of who
00:57:57
knows that's probably why they're a clickbait business drives perverse incentives and it's like
00:58:03
why not align it with what is the profitability of the business what is the growth of the business a bonus pool
00:58:09
a base level of pay and if the unions are coming in they are literally rearranging the chairs on the Titanic
00:58:15
yeah and it's that simple you you both the beer industry and Hollywood are both shrinking Industries and so when you got unions demanding more and more and more of a shrinking pie something's going to
00:58:26
break now look just to be clear I'm in favor of unions demanding things like better working conditions and health
00:58:31
care and just like the basics yeah but you know when they try to go for things like I don't know Banning Ai and weird
00:58:39
and proposals that distort the cost structure of the business to the point where it's just not feasible it's not profitable that
00:58:46
doesn't work also the question is why collar workers who can move so freely between jobs yeah we're so Elite why
00:58:54
would any white collar worker who is learning and sharpening their blade and increasing their value year after year
00:59:00
why would they even want to join a union there was a podcast Union that started in Spotify and gimlet media all of this
00:59:08
stuff and one of the podcasts I think it was reply all they didn't want to join the union because they're like well
00:59:13
we're overcompensated we're a hit show and they were all claimed that they were coming in the schools but can we steal
00:59:20
that you can't get rid of a bad teacher because they're in the union so it's like a huge procedure they put them in a
00:59:25
building right where the incontinent teachers deal man Pro case of joining a union in 2023
00:59:33
I mean if you could get benefits like some basic level of benefits look I I think that the pitch and Jay Cal this is why I asked you this a few episodes ago you know tell us your
00:59:46
experience having grown up in a family that I think unions are pretty proliferant in these um
00:59:52
cops firemen cops firemen yeah I mean if you were the pitch is you're you're part of a membership you have a voice and
00:59:58
that voice always is your Advocate and that Advocate looks out for benefits comp time off whether or not and how you
01:00:06
get fired all the things that you feel you may be unfairly treated by management there's nothing novel here I
01:00:11
don't know it's a strong appealing Point yeah so I don't know if that's the best steel man before because look employee
01:00:17
it's a competitive labor market if you have skills that companies want so you should be able to negotiate for a lot of these things yourself I think the steel
01:00:24
main case for unions and the reason why they formed in the first place is because American industry was basically
01:00:29
owned by an oligopoly they were themselves Monopoly so if you have a monopoly of Industries like U.S steel or
01:00:37
Standard Oil then there's not a competitive labor market they just set the prices they set the conditions
01:00:43
that's why the unions got started is you needed a basically a monopoly of Labor to face off against a monopoly of business that's how I got started and I think in those conditions we're talking about the
01:00:55
early 1900s people were losing limbs in factories yeah of course very different working conditions different working
01:01:00
conditions but now you're talking about much more competitive Industries but look yeah there was a great deal of like
01:01:06
manual labor needed to get productivity out of businesses and Enterprise so you know so much of Industry changed where
01:01:12
things became automated whether it became specialization and differentiation amongst the workforce and it wasn't everyone is just using
01:01:19
their arms to do things and you know this is obviously now measurable and the idea that you can basically you know
01:01:25
capture management or do a hostile takeover of the corporation or the equity I I think it's effectively what's
01:01:30
happened with a lot of these these uh and I'll be honest knowing what I know about unions if you were to do a deep
01:01:36
dive into you know the police unions or the firefighter unions or the sanitation
01:01:42
unions or the teacher unions and you look at their pensions and their overtime you would see some pretty
01:01:49
significant abuse use that the unions have built up over years to where people can make three or four hundred thousand
01:01:55
dollars a year in the last two or three years they Goose that up because then they base their pension on the average
01:02:00
of the last three years and what basically happens is all the senior guys say listen all over time goes to these
01:02:06
three guys who are retiring in three years and none of the junior guys can take any overtime and when it's your
01:02:11
turn right you get that all that and then we're gonna Gooch your pay so what that does unreasonably yeah is the pension calculation the pay into the pension is based on some Assumption of
01:02:22
today as that starts to happen the pensions become underfunded because they no longer have enough Capital to make
01:02:28
all the disbursements that are supposed to happen and there's a big argument now that there's probably over a trillion dollars of underfunded pension
01:02:35
liabilities in the United States many of which are based on the fact that these payout principles were defined by some
01:02:41
negotiation with the union and their games and there's a large difference between somebody writing a listicle or
01:02:47
rewriting a Washington posterior business owner you know somebody rewriting a Wall Street Journal paywall story and Business Insider somebody running into a
01:03:02
running into a burning building or you know right um having a Target on their back as a cop in San Francisco these are
01:03:09
very different jobs and the white collar knowledge workers are lasting what what's the average tenure right now 36
01:03:16
months 30 months I mean you're obviously moving from place to place what's the point of the
01:03:21
Union it's a competitive labor market and to your point it's true that in some cases the unions do get a better deal
01:03:28
for their members however there is a deadweight loss for the union itself because the unions representing its own
01:03:34
interests one and a half percent so they're taking something they've got to skip they're skimming not Scorsese movie
01:03:41
was it the Irish Irishman yeah you really get a taste of the corruption that was there was some skimming going on everybody gets a little skim all of a
01:03:47
sudden one and a half times then also the pension fund starts getting you know rolled into mob projects or whatever I
01:03:53
mean that's like a while ago but yeah I I there were some significant downsides my view of it is we lived in a
01:04:01
decade of surplus Elites you know having these luxury jobs and I'll put in the luxury jobs being a journalist being a venture capitalist you know these elitist luxury jobs and
01:04:13
in some of them they became so wildly overcompensated I think they wanted to feel oppressed they wanted to feel
01:04:20
like they need a representation and I think they were LARPing to use the term again live-action role-playing that they
01:04:25
were going to be in a union like they wanted the LARPing as being victims right they've wanted to like
01:04:31
literally The Business Insider people were putting up pictures of Henry Blodgett and his grievances yes and
01:04:37
they're on the street holding a picket sign up and I'm like what's the matter is your keyboard not ergonomic enough at
01:04:43
home you haven't been to an office in three [ __ ] years setting it the latest flavor of kind bars or whatever
01:04:48
yeah no they didn't get the Cherry the Crayons tomorrows I mean like leave the unions for the people who are actually on the front lines all right so I think well we
01:05:01
could wrap good rub should we wrap it's probably rap time would you want to do a quick science Corner update I got a lot
01:05:07
of action room temp superconductor yeah there is a uh actually it's a very uh interesting you may remember two episodes ago and if you if you don't remember you kind of can go back and
01:05:17
watch it um where I talked a little bit about the effort to try and identify a material
01:05:22
that can be superconducting at room temperature which means no resistance electrons can flow through the material
01:05:27
with no resistance perfect um electricity trans for across distance and also enables the Meisner effect
01:05:33
where magnetic waves can reflect off of the material which can allow things like levitating trains which is very low
01:05:39
friction Transportation all these benefits of superconducting materials Quantum Computing Etc so yesterday and
01:05:45
I've gotten literally dozens of emails and notes about this in the last 12 hours there was a paper published by a
01:05:52
team in South Korea who seem like a very legit team there's no reason why they would kind of make a
01:05:58
fraudulent claim that there is a material that they've identified and measured to show has superconducting
01:06:05
properties at room temperature and ambient pressure where a lot of these efforts historically have been made at
01:06:10
room temperature but they use 200 times atmospheric pressure to compress it and it turns out that this material that
01:06:16
they're using is a lead appetite which is a uh it's a hexagonal Crystal that uses calcium phosphate and lead and that some of the calc the lead gets replaced
01:06:27
with copper and the copper causes the hexagon the crystal structure to compress a little bit that compressed
01:06:33
Crystal allows the electrons to flow through this is their theoretical explanation on what's going on it will
01:06:38
be replicated people will try and do what they are now claiming they did to demonstrate this there was some
01:06:44
condensed matter physics people that sent me an email and said they don't think that this is real they have great deal of skepticism well let me but sorry
01:06:51
let me just say two things about this um you can read the paper let me say a few things firstly I think it's unlikely that these guys are gonna
01:07:04
make a fraudulent if they did make a fraudulent claim it would be the end of their career as their reputation would be damaged so that may happen if they did not make a frog the president of Stanford if they
01:07:16
did not make a fraudulent claim and it is and it does turn out to be real then I I do think it'll end up being
01:07:23
the the most important Discovery in physics of this Century okay so it's easy no no no something serious look I I don't think I
01:07:35
know you guys are joking about it but yeah we talked about the importance of this material in technology yes it's an everyday life I want to build on top of
01:07:42
what you're saying the thing that you're saying the more generalized concept is we have such a poor understanding of the
01:07:49
periodic table just broadly speaking of condensed matter of physics there's so much about physics and quantum mechanics
01:07:55
we are just literally poking around poking around trying to figure out what's going on and that's what led to
01:08:00
this discovery supposed a discovery I've made this analogy before but if you take the periodic table and it actually kind of looks like the United States of
01:08:06
America we have like a really good sense of like the upper Northwest and like the east coast and otherwise we don't know
01:08:13
anything and I think it was about two and a half years ago right the beginning of the pandemic there were these three
01:08:19
guys and I that started with this idea just building some machine learning to experiment in silica around different
01:08:26
materials right and can you guess physical properties and if you think these properties are better at a certain
01:08:32
thing can we then go and actually make samples and figure it out and we pointed it at batteries and we said let's just
01:08:39
take the cheapest form of batteries lfp lithium right that's used in the model 3 and let's make better lfp and what we're
01:08:45
finding is holy [ __ ] like we don't know anything and there are these like really big breakthroughs one which we'll probably
01:08:52
announce in like the next few weeks because we just raised a bunch of money around this idea but it's all just people experimenting
01:08:58
better and smarter and really what you find is that there just aren't enough of those people doing it and so the cycle
01:09:04
time is just too long well and this is where AI can actually have some it's incredible games transformational
01:09:11
guy gets smarter you put in the inputs you give it the data set we don't know what it's going to come up with and it
01:09:17
could profoundly the the better version of increase our understanding part of what this Korean team did is they they
01:09:24
had a separate paper that they published talking about the demonstration of using AI to try and be predictive around
01:09:29
quantum mechanics which is something that people have said we can't really do Quantum modeling until we get quantum
01:09:34
computers and so there has been this this belief that once we get quantum computers we'll be able to understand
01:09:40
the physics of of the quantum skill and be able to do modeling that will allow us to do more Discovery but we are still
01:09:47
very much just poking around and theorizing and every cycle by the way in superconductor research there's a
01:09:52
different theory on what causes superconductivity and it shows so uh how little we do actually yeah yeah so these
01:09:59
guys basically when we were trying to build so if you if you look at like a Tesla Model S right or model X these are
01:10:04
nmc or NCA batteries right very very very energy rich but also very expensive and very complicated batteries that won't scale to the average everyday car and what was crazy in our attempt to
01:10:16
take lfp which is the cheap version and make it as keep the cheapness but as energy dense as nmc and NCA we ended up doping it with all kinds of random stuff that you would have never
01:10:28
guessed in a million years given billions of dollars you would you needed computers to go off and actually make
01:10:35
these guesses so this idea that we're going to find all the stuff at the periodic table bumbling around I think
01:10:40
is such an interesting part of the physical sciences and again this will lead to infinite energy storage and
01:10:47
batteries yeah you can put electricity into a battery if you have a superconducting battery and it would cycle forever no resistance
01:10:53
and then you could just plug in and get the energy back out so imagine infinite storage on batteries
01:10:59
completely so you can there are already superconducting um circuits that are used in quantum
01:11:04
computers and other high-end applications but because they're so expensive to cool and so expensive to
01:11:10
operate they're not ubiquitous but the power of having them be ubiquitous would be extraordinary for computing for
01:11:15
discovery for AI for modeling the applications of what we'll end up discovering because of the modeling we
01:11:20
can now do in a more ubiquitous way is going to be incredible these are very profound moments when they do and if they do happen we should be excited
01:11:28
optimistic but obviously very very cautious about uh where and when this may happen yeah I really love you what
01:11:34
an incredible so thankful that you guys came and showed up that really means a lot to me thank you fantastic yeah
01:11:40
incredible weekly I really love you guys thank you very very much for that all right we'll see everybody uh at the all
01:11:46
in Summit oh my gosh yum yum it's in like in is it like six weeks more a little more I will announce it and then we'll take
01:11:56
it out if it's not okay but we did confirm Ray dalios and we'll add him to the speaker list we've got a few other guests that we're not going to announce
01:12:02
that will be last minute fun surprises for everyone always some fun surprises at the end I'm really excited to have right now yeah how the party's going for
01:12:10
the summer for the parties we uh we have narrowed down to three themes we think are gonna be a lot of fun opening night
01:12:15
uh Sunday night the day before the event starts September 10th I think that is you have location yet uh we are
01:12:21
negotiating the final contracts with the locations we've got about a dozen of them and we're gonna narrow it down to the three that give us um the best
01:12:27
flexibility we'll have the floor plans uh which is the last step um you know you got like six weeks right
01:12:33
yeah no no it's we have more than enough options now so uh Sunday night Jake house handling the parties not me I'm
01:12:38
doing the party I want to hear a great all in Summit story yeah but let me just go through the three um yeah the three-party themes so opening night is
01:12:45
going to be bestie Royale uh the best you who love me a James Bond theme so what is that tuxedo white tuxedos white
01:12:50
tuxedos or you can go as a Bond girl or you could go as Austin Powers anything in that theme casino games but no black
01:12:57
tuxedo you can go black taxi you go white tuxedo you could go Daniel Craig you could go Sean Connery Roger Moore you pick you can go on Sean Connery you
01:13:04
go whatever you want I like the black talks I've tried the white tux it doesn't you can do it yeah for me I look
01:13:09
like a waiter his bucket hat Monday night is going to be bestie club uh Breakfast Club big 80s
01:13:21
the location is incredible I wouldn't say it but um not to be confused with Fight Club where Jake Hill and I get in a ring no not if I ask each other yeah
01:13:28
that wouldn't last very long um best club we worked everything out of the board meeting yeah did we work everything up between the two of you
01:13:34
everything's good boy you were embracing afterwards I saw the two of you embracing of course I tried to give him
01:13:40
a hug it was an awkward you didn't fully let me in oh it was like you ever see 3PO trying to get Han Solo a hug it does
01:13:46
like this like oh uh there's a 472-1 chance that you're my bestie oh um and then uh the last night it will be bestie Runner a Blade Runner send up a cyberpunk theme wear your best cyberpunk
01:13:59
oh you must have a good like punch-up person for this kind of stuff like you have a person though yo he's got a art
01:14:04
director no that's level two in the basement sub level two in the basement is the costumes you know how you haven't been to that level in your elevator yeah you go down level two is costumes yeah level
01:14:19
three is sets okay I'll tell you a quick story all in Summit I'm walking in the streets of Milan me not
01:14:25
and we're we're walking just on Via Monte Napoleon in Milan and I hear it and I turn around it's Damian Bertrand the CEO of Laura Piana and he and so he
01:14:37
comes we're so excited to be a part of the all in Summit and I'm like oh my God this isn't I didn't tell you this oh
01:14:43
oh it's not happening no it is I know they're cushioning every seat with uh I don't know don't ruin it okay
01:14:50
but my team's been working really hard on this anyways I I saw Damian they they're excited he's coming yes
01:14:59
it's gonna have um Montclair you had every opportunity these last three days to do everything you needed to get a sponsorship is listening what are you the guys right there on the
01:15:11
beach on the beach do you see the yacht right there that's his boat this is his restaurant this is his restaurant
01:15:23
I can't do enough I can't do any more than anything get on the dinghy go to his people get off your phone he's
01:15:29
sitting right there you need to pay attention yeah get another funny here's what happens the guy uh Freebird
01:15:44
comes up he's in a panic oh we've got a problem Jake how uh the production has got a problem they're gonna kick us out
01:15:49
of the restaurant the guy goes I don't think it's going to be a problem I'm gonna fix it and everybody's like how are you gonna fix it he's like well I
01:15:55
owned the restaurant and uh so I'll ask them we bought it do um not to kick you out and I'm sorry not gonna be a problem not gonna be a problem and he sat beside
01:16:07
for a whole day right who is on the board and I said David she's on the board so if you this is
01:16:14
your moment you sold out their hats and this is David cut to David bleep out the name hold on
01:16:20
oh oh hold on a lot of stuff Peter chill and I are in level four of my basement I'm in a game of Blitz with Peter Thiel hold up you're playing
01:16:32
a terrible hangover let's do that all right everybody live from Portofino four hungovers thank you guys thank you everybody
01:16:48
[Music] and they've just gone crazy with it [Music] besties [Music] it's like this like sexual tension that we just need to release somehow
01:17:30
[Music] we need to get Mercies [Music]