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pick up your phone dip hello sax yeah i'll be ready in like two minutes okay let's go splash some water on your face
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take a couple of whatever you need some and uh let's go we're waiting okay i'll be here
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okay hurry up is your chance to get max air time are we really gonna report that
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you listen freeberg's out that means you're gonna get by default 33.3 percent of airtime it's gonna be your biggest
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week [Music] every man [Music] hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast
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with us today the dictator himself jamal polyhapati the rain man david sacks i'm j cal
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and the queen of quinoa quit the show where is it here he quit the show i think i think he quit
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so we're looking for a science person if you know anybody email all science guy at the all-inpodcast.com if
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you want to apply for the science position here no uh he couldn't make it he was uh he's moving he's moving he's
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moving i guess we can say that without invading his privacy but he's not going to be able to
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do a show anyway because there's so much going on uh and i think we should start with this
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do we want to start with the covet stuff again for the third episode in a row or
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do you want to start with china and then back into kobe oh govind i think we should just do covet quickly because i
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think you know as much as the audience complained about it we got a lot of comments saying why
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are you talking about kovitz so much we were ahead of the curve i'm predicting this whole new delta wave you know we
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told people what was coming i think it was a useful service so people might not want to hear it but it was i think i
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would say we were probably two weeks ahead of the it was very impressive i think that we've gotten a couple things
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actually right the a couple weeks ahead of other people yeah so yeah i mean it was pretty obvious that this was going
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to race through the places that had low vaccination and having the breakthrough cases is
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i don't think anybody anticipated that and the thing we didn't yeah over the last week on twitter i'm seeing this big
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debate on whether vaccinated people can spread the delta variant and i'm like guys
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didn't you see the show two weeks ago we covered this yeah i got it i was vaccinated i got it from someone who is
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vaccinated this is known you know delta variant has slipped the vaccine it still
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prevents the most serious cases generally speaking we need to see it as a spectrum of protection rather than
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completely binary but uh yeah absolutely you can get it and pass it on if you're vaccinated like we
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know that and we said we told the audience that three weeks ago the other thing we predicted was
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you know that this is going to be incredibly disruptive and it's going to create another debate of lock and
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potential lockdowns and mask mandates and most of all we discussed and you know we had i think
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a pretty vibrant debate between all of us about under what circumstances does your decision to not get vaccinated
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impact everybody else vis-a-vis the petri dish of the next variant that's coming
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uh hopefully that'll be less uh deadly less contagious which is tends to be how these things go
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uh but we also predicted some people are just gonna start requiring vaccines vaccine cards and we
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we mentioned what's happening in france and i don't know what examples you've seen this week yeah
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i thought last week when you made vaccine passports the main issue i thought i i well let's put this way i
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think that was actually turned out to be great moderation because what has been the big issue all over the world since
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the last episode vaccine passports you saw it with naftali bennett in israel they are not taking any of this vaccine
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hesitancy there's nine million people in that country eight million are vaccinated they're telling the last
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million you gotta go get vaccinated he has laid down the law saying enough is enough a billion people have gotten
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vaccinated uh it works and for the last million of you who haven't gotten vaccinated if you want to attend
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any function with more than 100 people if you want to go to synagogue if you want to go to a sports game if you want
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to go to the mall you have to be vaccinated or you're gonna get tested that day at your own
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expense um everywhere you go it's gonna be so they're gonna make it a real pain in the
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ass until you get vaccinated you then separately had roger goodell basically doing the same thing in the nfl saying
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to players you well first of all all the coaches have to get vaccinated there was
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an anti-vaxx coach who got fired and then they don't have as much power with the players because the players have a
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union but goodell said to them listen if you don't get vaccinated you're going to
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get tested every day that you go to work and if the team if there's an outbreak on the team and
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you guys miss a game you're going to lose all of your salary we're not going to put up with apparently there's a game
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last year during the um during uh kovid where it was a ravens um uh steelers game and half of the uh one
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of those two things the ravens half of the first string was out with covid or they were in isolation protocol because
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they're around players you know obviously if you're in a locker room one player gets everyone's gonna be exposed
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right so it turned out to be like one of the the worst games uh that the nfl put on last year and get
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all saying we're not gonna put out product like that anymore if you are the reason why the team misses a game guess
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what you and all of your teammates are going to lose your salary and since there's only 17 games in an nfl season
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you're just hearing about real real money so you had goodell doing that and now you have facebook and google
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basically coming out saying in order to go back to the office you have to be vaccinated now it's a little bit of the
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soft it's sort of more of the the iron fist beneath the velvet glove because they
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are offering testing so if you don't get vaccinated you can get a test every time
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you go to the office but unlike israel which is making you pay for it you know you know facebook and google
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are so rich they're going to pay for it so basically what you're saying seeing here is that government is not in the
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u.s it's not representing the mandate uh federal workers um otherwise you have to get tested weekly
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this is beyond now debatable um i think the funny thing is the republicans i think somewhere along the
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way realized oh my god we're going to lose the midterm elections they have found a way
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to find a single modality and behavior to steal defeat from the jaws of victory you know
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i think that the republicans were probably trending to basically win back the house
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and now i don't think that's the case um and you have a bunch of these um red state governors who are literally
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flipping their right now trying to figure out how to get their folks vaccinated many of these people may not even be
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able to vote come midterms because they're either going to be dead or still sick i mean
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uh it's it's uh we've learned a lot um and at this point you're being left with folks there again
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there are people who do it for religious reasons i get it there are people that you know are going to sort of like live
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off the grid and live by themselves i get them too but the folks that want to be a tax on
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the system or use public resources i don't understand and uh they're basically going to get singled out and
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discriminated against and the carrot and the stick method here i think is going to work because we saw a
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bunch of people sign up to get vaccinated in france once they said listen you can't go to a cafe or a bar
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and i think that a lot of the people who are not vaccinated are probably enjoying
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going out and having a life danny meyer the restaurant tour in new york from union square cafe and gramercy tavern
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one of the most famous restaurateurs of all time announced on cnbc this morning that he'll be requiring vaccines for all
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staff and customers what do we think of that restaurant saying you've got to show a vax car like the way in if i love
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it listen to me if i'm gonna go in and i'm gonna spend two or three thousand dollars on wine
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and then a couple of thousand bucks on a tip i don't want some who's gonna get me sick there it's bad enough
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that i still may get sick and and by the way danny meyer's restaurants are not like you know
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you know uh red robin these are extremely high-end the idea that you can get a communicable
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respiratory disease and spend five thousand dollars is untenable untenable non-starter
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sacs i mean listen you you've you it's very interesting last episode i felt like you were
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really trying to balance your belief in freedom uh and people being able to make
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decisions themselves with you know the reality that we can't be close forever how has the
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last week changed your thinking and what do you think of the danny meyer i i like what danny meyer did in this
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sense he wants to create a certain experience for his clientele and he knows that his clientele are more likely
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to go dine in his restaurants if there's a vaccine policy at his restaurants he's
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not saying the policy for the whole country he's sending it for his establishment he has every right to
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be able to do that and he believes that will help his bottom line and he's probably right
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about that similarly roger goodell same thing i mean he took a tough line because he knows that if he wants the
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nfl to put out a great product every week they can't be cancelling games because of covet outbreaks uh you know
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they can't have the first string players out with covet so he made a smart business decision i think people should
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have the freedom the right to do that now i still have let's call it a reservation about
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government requiring it not because i don't see the benefit i definitely see the health benefit but
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just because i don't like giving government the power to you know stick a stick a needle in
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your arm if you're a government employee i do think the government has added power we talked about this last week
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they can make it a job requirement and you know what's interesting in california
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california said if you're a state employee you got to get vaccinated but the one group they
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singled out were the teachers because you know gavin newsom has no guts to stand up the teachers union
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whatsoever and i find it so ironic that early in the pandemic we had this big debate about whether the teachers would
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go back to school in the fall and the teachers union said we won't go back unless we're first in line for the
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vaccine well guess what they got that now they're saying they're not going to go back if you make us get vaccinated i
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mean you can't win and they're moving the goal post i mean people over the goal post they want to
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work from home they it's kind of ridiculous it's one group that needs to do it most and they should
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be the one it's kind of like the army and teachers and healthcare workers they should be given a mandate if you want
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this job you must be vaccinated you cannot be in the army in the military and not be vaccinated because we need
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you in close quarters on a helicopter to go whack osama bin laden we can't have a
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covet outbreak in the navy seals when we gotta go i'm okay with that i think i think every
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employer has the right to require it if they believe it's going to impact job performance now i want to go back to the
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point that your mother made about the midterm elections i i because i there's a part i agree with and a part i
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disagree with so the part i agree with is that the republicans were cruising to you know a midterm slacking and now
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um the uh the whole vaccine hesitancy issue i think there was a prospect of that
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causing damage to the republicans not because most republicans are vaccine hesitant
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but rather because republican politicians were not out front enough on getting vaccines but
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look there's a difference between reality and perception here's the reality every single republican governor
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every single one has been vaccinated and has supported the vaccine mitch mcconnell is vaccinated sports vaccine
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kevin mccarthy put out a statement you even have the house minority whip um scalise get vaccinated on on live tv why
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had he not been vaccinated because he already had covet and he didn't actually think he needed it but he got the
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vaccine anyway to basically double down you had sarah huckabee sanders come out and say that she was getting the trump
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she called the trump vaccine yes please if put the trump logo on it right i mean
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she understands right like this is probably you know operation uh light speed or warp speed or whatever was
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probably the biggest operation operation up the midterms that's what the republicans should call this yeah well
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so so look i mean the republican politicians in the main support vaccines the problem is that
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they were being a little bit too quiet about it and as a result of that you had the fringe people the marjorie killer
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greens and so forth they were occupying too much air space around this issue um and
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you know frankly you know right now i think that i think the democrats are going to keep thous
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i wouldn't i wouldn't actually go that far but because i think that i think the republican problem was not
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that their vaccine hesitant but rather that they were just being a little too quiet about it um yeah but now i think
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that's changed i mean there is not a single major republican politician who isn't strongly in favor of a vaccine if
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the republicans can get their actual act together and actually get these uh you know and jason does joke about it
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but i do think he's bright in a certain way basically like this this group of republicans largely um who refuse to get
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vaccinated then they may be able to pull something out but i think that it's going to have to
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require a little bit of backtracking and showing up as you said by the mainstream
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republican political groups and they just have not done a good job there's a really simple
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off-ramp for them new information new strain new approach listen we didn't anticipate
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delta would happen this is ten times more it allows people to save face basically they can save face they got a
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perfect offer listen there's new information here this thing is even the cdc hasn't officially changed their
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policy yet um i mean it's coming right we know it's coming they've always been behind the curve we've predicted the
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policy change on the show anywhere from two weeks to two months before they actually do it
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um but look on the vaccine i don't discern a difference in position on the vaccine itself between republican
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governors and democratic governors they both are advocating it they're both allowing private organizations to
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require it but none of them to my knowledge have either had the the guts or the temerity
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however you want to see it to actually require it oh i love that word temerity not really used not used enough and just
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putting a cap in this before we move on to what's going on in china um we talked
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about implementing this and how do you implement it well we don't need to have a national registry people have vaccine
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cards you bring your vaccine card you show it and then of course people go to well what happens if you
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uh create a fact can anybody create a fake vaccine card yes of course you can but the fbi has put out
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a statement now because the lollapalooza the music festival they are saying do not buy a fake
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vaccine card because if you want to have no mask at lollapalooza you have to show your vaccine card and they said the
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fbi is uh tweeting about this uh it's illegal it endangers yourself and those around you and it's a federal
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crime that could lead to hefty fines or prison time oh my god yeah so show us your papers
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just get the facts just get the vaccine folks becoming a darwin award this is quickly
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moving into darwin award territory we are i talked to my doctor and i was like i want to get the moderna or j and j
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which one should i get and they're like you got the fives already i'm like yeah i want to take a second like i don't
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think that's going to make a difference i was like i think it's totally going to
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make a difference this was like when we got off the pod last week and they're like yeah i was like well
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just give me the third shot of fisher then and they're like well that's not necessary either i'm like i don't care
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if it's not necessary i want it give me the third shot of fives and then i open up drudge report yesterday and it's like
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third shot of vaccine pfizer in israel or whatever they're just gonna start giving people a third shot yeah i just
00:16:06
want to get ahead of the customer you're exactly right but by the way there's one
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other piece of news that came out that i think is very positive on on covid which
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is the availability of these oral anti-virals the pills that you can take when you get an early case of it right
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so it's like what they have for tamiflu with the flu like no one should ever die
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of the flu because tamiflu is like completely effective at stopping it provided you take tamiflu early in the
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case so i think that you know with the reduced effectiveness of vaccine what we're going to have to do is supplement
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the vaccines and the boosters with home testing and then you know these oral antivirals so that you get you you take
00:16:45
a test you discover you got coveted and you immediately get prescribed you know one of these these uh pills and the
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pharma companies are coming out there's like three different pharma companies coming out with these oral and
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antivirals and if freeberg were here he could tell us all about it yeah free break explain the science
00:17:00
behind this you know what the science can go itself hey danny meyer chill a great bottle of white burgundy because
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i'm coming baby let's go baby ready to go oh my lord uh all right the the china situation has been
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perplexing to me you know my position was always be careful working in china or investing in china
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we're investing in chinese companies because they could change the rules at any time and change the rules they have
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in the past a year we talked about obviously and financial uh and jack ma going mia bite dance the ceo and founder
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uh stepping down as ceo amid chinese regulations and all the scrutiny and then we have dd last week
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being pulled from the app store in an unprecedented penalty where you're not allowed to download dd and the existing
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users can use it and then on top of that all the educational companies this week
00:18:01
were told that they uh cannot operate as for-profit companies and these companies have gone
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public in hong kong and in the west uh and this has caused such an acute effect softbank
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uh is clearing a bunch of its uber position to cover their losses in dd uh and then there is the story of larry
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chan who is a chinese education entrepreneur he was worth 15 billion in january now he's lost 99 of his net
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worth according to bloomberg he uh founded gautu taichidou or techchito which is a
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chinese online tutoring firm as we know education is huge uh in china that company uh gow2
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peaked at 140 a share in january and has fallen to three dollars a share big sorted story there 10 cent lost 100
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billion in market cap in three days earlier this week as china crack down on what they call the monopoly in music
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right so while we debate what happens with the monopolies here in the united states
00:19:01
china just literally told them and here's the quote from the bbc article the company and its affiliated
00:19:07
businesses have been told that they can no longer engage in exclusive deals over
00:19:10
music rights and must dissolve any existing agreements within 30 days i mean this would be like
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biden just saying the app store is now open you have to let other app stores in apple or you
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know just coming down and saying to amazon you can't sell amazon basics anymore in 30 days no more amazon basics
00:19:25
at the site what are we what do you think the end game is here is this a because china seems like they
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are very deliberate and they plan in centuries what is happening here there's the short term and the long term
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i think what's happening in the short term is that the same thing that we are talking about in the united states that
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saks is you know very eloquently basically i think led most everybody in just really framing
00:19:52
for a lot of people is this idea that um you know we have privatized free speech
00:19:57
and we have put the distribution of information into the hands of three or four founder ceo oligarchs
00:20:05
that's also true in china and when you look under the hood of the major internet companies there's four or five
00:20:10
guys that are in charge and so i think that in the united states politicians feel increasingly uneasy
00:20:19
with those folks having power because it's applied indiscriminately trump gets banned trump may not get banned this
00:20:25
person gets distribution this article is considered misinformation that article is considered disinformation this
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article is suppressed it's a dangerous place to be um and in china they were just like
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enough's enough so i think the short term as it relates to the internet companies was basically a realization
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that we are not going to allow any more devolution of power from the chinese communist party to and into the hands of
00:20:48
these internet entrepreneurs so that was that was sort of like the so it's a move
00:20:52
out of fear they're scared they're gonna lose their power base not scared i think
00:20:56
they're just smart and they were like we're not gonna allow this to happen so they don't have to deal with section 230
00:21:02
or any law like that i think it was just a realization that we want them to understand who was boss
00:21:08
right and so there was a wave of resignations there was uh now all of this market cap upheaval
00:21:15
and this is now where we get to sort of like the appetizer and i think in the appetizer what
00:21:20
they're basically saying is we will control how money is made and who makes money and
00:21:27
and i think that that sets up the really difficult thing that i think happens which is about the long term so in this
00:21:33
in this thing what's happening right now is china very firmly telling everybody we are
00:21:38
firmly in control there is no private market and there is no capital market without
00:21:46
our approval and that's a really big statement um and in fact it was such a big statement that um i think the chinese uh
00:21:53
security authorities then had like a conference call at goldman sachs jp morgan all these folks were invited and
00:21:58
you know the vice chairman basically his quote was something to the effect of we
00:22:02
promise that any more changes will at least let you know not hey there's nothing nothing to see
00:22:08
here or there's nothing more to come it's just more that as we decide new rules we'll make sure that we give you
00:22:13
guys enough warning so it's very much firmly saying we know exactly how money is made we
00:22:19
will decide who makes money in what way and we're going to make sure that you know all of this wealth creation
00:22:26
happens under terms that we define and i think that the set up for the long term
00:22:31
the long term in china is complicated it is an enormous demographic time bomb we've talked about this before by the
00:22:37
end of 2100 china's population will shrink from 1.1 1.2 billion people down to about 700
00:22:43
million people right so they had very progressive quote unquote under their framework
00:22:50
laws of one child policy to basically make it economically viable in the 60s and 70s
00:22:55
there was such a number of people those people were able to get great jobs in the you know 80s and 90s and 2000s
00:23:03
and now they've realized oh wow we made a huge miscalculation because now there is just not enough people
00:23:09
and so china's going to shrink and i think that honestly i think xi jinping probably thinks
00:23:15
the simplest way to solve this is to basically nationalize a lot of the economy over time and so i if i was a
00:23:21
betting man which i am general but i'm not in china because i just don't understand the market it's superb it's a
00:23:26
rich casino it's a stupid place to bet i'm not going to say that i just think that i don't know the market
00:23:32
well i think they changed the rules of the game hold on let me just finish what i'm saying i think that what we're start
00:23:38
what we're starting to see is the beginning of nationalizations and i think it's going to start in
00:23:43
technology universe because those are the critical assets that the chinese need to own for
00:23:49
the future so that's in my opinion what's happening i think it's really important
00:23:53
what's going on there um and uh yeah i don't know saks when you look at this we've been talking about
00:23:59
you know this these two great competitors america and china and who's going to win how does china win
00:24:06
if this would seem not having a vibrant entrepreneurial you know socialist communist hybrid is this the end of that
00:24:16
experiment and now it's just going to go all national and then doesn't that make it easier for the west
00:24:21
to win if china is just going to say we're going to we're going to operate everything and they don't have a
00:24:26
competition of ideas if they go that far i think it's really interesting actually to compare what's
00:24:31
happening in china with what's happening on the us in the us because on the surface both countries are having this
00:24:37
debate about whether big tech needs to be reined in broken up controlled we're having that debate in the u.s and
00:24:43
obviously they're having some version of it in china but it's a little bit like the the civil rights debate right where
00:24:49
you know we have our civil rights issue in the u.s and you know they have shinzen you know they have uh the
00:24:55
uyghurs you know it's like a whole order of magnitude different in terms of the way they react and i think
00:25:02
there's i would say there's three main differences here between the chinese approach and the us approach number one
00:25:09
data privacy we have a concept of separation between private companies and the data they control
00:25:16
and the data that the us government can get its hands on and the us government typically has to get a warrant and go
00:25:22
through a corporate scene to get that data what china is doing they've now passed a law basically saying all these
00:25:28
companies your data belongs to us if we want it we get it they're taking operational control over the data and
00:25:33
you know they're going to use it okay that's a big difference number two i think that china seems to be really
00:25:40
worried about these big tech companies not just in terms of whether they might engage in
00:25:47
anti-competitive practices or consumer harm sort of those conventional anti-trust concepts in the united states
00:25:54
but they're concerned about these big tech moguls becoming power centers in china and you saw this with jack ma
00:26:01
right i mean clearly the ccp had a problem with the way that jack ma had become a figure that people rallied
00:26:08
around him they looked to him they cared about what he had to say and all of a sudden yes the ant ipo was put on hold
00:26:14
but it was more than that right um you know this was not just like you know what the sec would have done all of a
00:26:19
sudden jack ma disappears he goes into some sort of house arrest he comes out three months later looking kind of
00:26:25
emaciated uh you know they are putting the the fear of god in you know these big tech moguls in a way that we would
00:26:31
never do in the u.s i mean look i don't want tim cook to engage in anti-competitive practices but i don't
00:26:36
want anything bad happening to tim cook i don't think the guy should be under house arrest if he wants to donate his
00:26:41
money to political causes and speak out as a private citizen he has every right to do that and i'll defend his right to
00:26:47
do that no matter you know how much i want you know apple to be reined in that they don't have that that again that
00:26:52
separate concept in china and i think the last thing that's going on here that's different
00:26:58
is you saw china put the kabosh on there are 34 ipos of major china uh chinese tech companies that were scheduled to
00:27:06
ipo in u.s markets and they have sort of shut that pipeline down and what it appears to be to they appear
00:27:12
to be saying is that you know we've talked about reshoring strategic industries back to the u.s like
00:27:18
pharmaceutical manufacturing they seem to be saying we are going to reshore the ipo business we do not want you
00:27:26
uh big chinese tech companies ipoing on american markets on american exchanges we are bringing that business back to
00:27:32
china and that is why i think you're seeing you know giant ripple effects now because i mean such mom's point about
00:27:40
decoupling we now it looks like are going to be decoupling our financial markets and um you know that's why
00:27:47
you're seeing you know gigantic hits the valuation that's a would you would you agree with me that the decoupling of
00:27:53
these financial markets might be in the best interest of humanity and ultimately the
00:27:58
decoupling of these two economies if we don't see eye to eye about human rights and how to treat people
00:28:04
maybe it's good that we have a little more distance between the two markets i mean
00:28:08
it's hard to know if engagement is the better process but it doesn't seem like the chinese communist party wants to
00:28:15
have anything to do with democracy anything to do with free markets they want to control all the markets
00:28:20
yeah i mean you could see um but you know in a way the product that the us was exporting to china was was our
00:28:28
financial markets and not an in in i think a good way right so that i think the bad version of this is when china is
00:28:35
able to buy up ownership in critical strategic centers in the u.s and that affects people's speech rights
00:28:42
over here but this is not china buying up ownership in the u.s this was china acting as a consumer of u.s
00:28:49
financial markets and um and i think i think it's different right when we're selling products over there
00:28:55
that helps correct our trade balance right this is why i don't have a problem with elon selling cars over in china's
00:29:00
he's helping our trade balance okay but so but they're kind of canceling that they're kind of saying we're going to
00:29:06
reassure this industry we want to have a domestic you know this is creating a mono economy right
00:29:15
it's like it's going to blur the lines between public and private ownership and it's going to basically make it one
00:29:23
huge pot from which the chinese government can can take and put it back into as it
00:29:30
deems fit for the broader success of china as a whole right so if you're a ceo and they don't
00:29:36
like you you're going to resign right if you're a company and they're worried about your propensity to be a little too
00:29:44
frisky on your own they'll rein you in i'd love to use cyber security law or something else but the point is that i
00:29:50
think that we shouldn't take this as free market regulators having their way this isn't lena khan implementing you
00:29:58
know some laws this is a top-down decision to nationalize large parts of the economy starting with
00:30:07
technology and i know that for some people that may seem unfathomable but if i'm a betting man which i am
00:30:15
that's what i would bet on that this is the beginning of the beginning of an attempt to pull these companies in i
00:30:22
mean what david said is true the chinese government owns the data of chinese companies so at the end of the
00:30:29
day the chinese government also owns the users and it also owns the revenues it just hasn't told you yet yeah in a way
00:30:35
it's like the chinese government in our our government is trying to officiate the game fairly and create a really
00:30:41
competitive vibrant game and i think what the chinese government just said is the game's over
00:30:47
like there is no game yeah no there's a game it just has it's what is the game because
00:30:53
it has an uber ceo it made a bunch of ceos general managers in a large corporation that report through a
00:31:00
reporting chain to one person xi jinping but there's no more game in terms of building companies and investing in
00:31:05
china like how is the west ever going to trust how is goldman sachs or sequoia you know
00:31:11
launching a venture firm there or retail investors or hedge fund investors how are they ever going to want to
00:31:16
participate in that market because so look for example when you invest in china right or if you set up a fund you
00:31:22
know there are two pools of capital right there's the local remember denominated investment vehicles and then
00:31:27
there's the us dollar denominated investment vehicles and they do that to segregate where the capital comes from
00:31:33
so it's not too difficult for the chinese government to basically say you know what i'm going to actually make
00:31:38
a constraint on dollar inflows so that you know the renminbi denominated investment funds
00:31:45
that are from chinese investors into chinese companies needs to be above a certain percentage call it two-thirds
00:31:50
right or call it 80 they can make all these decisions because these are all just rules that are completely under the
00:31:55
control so i i think that people who don't think this is going to happen are probably not looking at the setup the
00:32:01
setup seems to be directing itself towards that outcome and it by the way it makes sense for what xi jinping wants
00:32:08
to do from no no that's not my question my question is why would masay yoshi-san
00:32:12
or another entity ever invest in china because you looked through the risks and you got completely
00:32:19
enamored by the population and the tam but what i'm saying now is why would they do it again or are they not going
00:32:25
to do it no but there are there are boundary conditions that would say that even before this you would have had to
00:32:29
reconsider the population is shrinking there's a different demand side pull that's happening right older people need
00:32:35
different kinds of services than younger people there's not enough younger people
00:32:39
there's too many men there's not enough women so there's not enough couples there's not
00:32:43
all of these demographic issues ultimately will get reflected in the economic reality which is that smart
00:32:48
investors would put money in china differently over time anyways but i think that this is a bigger thing
00:32:55
as david said which is if that's coming to pass you want to control the pipes because
00:33:00
you want to control how that information is presented to people your citizens so
00:33:04
that they don't get pissed off and then you might as well just own the economy own the business i see this as
00:33:09
being amazing for american tech companies because i don't see who would ever want to be an entrepreneur whoever
00:33:15
has a great idea and wants to pursue it in china i just wouldn't do it no i disagree with you and and the reason i
00:33:20
disagree with them we don't have access to their markets anyway what company has
00:33:23
access to their market the difference is young smart chinese people for decades have been staying in china in part
00:33:30
because it was more they could more relate culturally to jack ma than they could to jack dorsey
00:33:36
okay that's just i mean that just makes sense sure okay and i understand that and then the second is we
00:33:42
uh like a lot of uh like sorry like the opposite of some other western countries
00:33:46
that canada closed our doors why would the next jack ma start a company if they saw jack ma
00:33:53
disappear that's my baby because you know what if you're coming from china and you can you can only make a billion
00:33:59
versus 45 billion i think you still take the shot okay i think j cal is is right in the
00:34:05
sense i don't think it's gonna be like a binary decision where all of a sudden everyone just stops doing business in
00:34:08
china but they're gonna be hedging their bets i mean if you were a chinese billionaire looking at this landscape
00:34:14
your your your priority has got to be to get some wealth outside the country beyond the control of the ccp you're
00:34:20
going to be buying bitcoin you're going to be trying to get your money overseas you have got to be very nervous about
00:34:25
what's happening buying homes in palo alto absolutely i mean look i think what president xi is doing is fundamentally
00:34:31
redefining the bargain between chinese entrepreneurs and the government and here here was the
00:34:37
original bargain right the great chinese leader and economic reformer deng xiaoping basically set the bargain
00:34:45
you know 40 years ago and what and basically the bargain was this we're going to open up the economy and let you
00:34:50
the entrepreneur get rich we're going to keep all the political power so as long
00:34:54
as you don't mess with us politically you can get as rich as you want that was the original bargain now president xi is
00:35:00
saying there's a new bargain there's a new boss in town and here is the deal that economic interest in china be
00:35:08
subordinate to national interest those national interests are defined by the ccp and i run the ccp for exactly
00:35:18
they just got layered there is a new ceo that they report to this actually makes
00:35:23
me very hopeful actually i think this is going to be like a spiraling down of their economy i
00:35:29
don't think it's going to smile i don't i don't think so i mean who's going to change them who's going
00:35:34
to invest in their economy everybody guess what because if you want a shred of lithium if you want a battery
00:35:40
if you want nickel if you want anything to happen you need to work with china they are
00:35:45
incredibly smart and thoughtful they have been strategic while we've been running around you know
00:35:51
complaining crying talking about the kindergarten soccer game they were doing the hard work
00:35:58
they were doing it for decades and until we find solutions that can work around them
00:36:06
we need to work with them i think they just throttled innovation and they just shot themselves in both feet i think
00:36:11
they're going to regret this decision i would come out in the middle and say they've just attached a discount rate
00:36:16
that now every investor has to consider political risk when they invest in china
00:36:21
because the future is very uncertain the bargain is getting changed and if you're
00:36:25
an investor you now have to take you're taking some huge positions i agree with david i think that's a
00:36:31
better way i would refine what i'm saying by saying it's a distribution of risk where it's closer to russia now
00:36:36
than it is to the united states yeah and then i think there's a there's literally
00:36:41
an act called the mcginsky act maginski act what is the act that bill broder's lawyer
00:36:48
maginski oh yes um because basically in russia they were just killing people and
00:36:54
taking their businesses i mean this feels like the equivalent in china yeah i mean they literally that was bill
00:37:03
broder's uh lawyer who was tortured to death and i i just don't see anybody wanting to invest
00:37:10
there anymore and it just does make the bitcoin in hindsight it does look like they shut
00:37:15
down bitcoin a couple of months before making these actions so your point david they probably anticipated that people
00:37:22
would start shipping their money out using bitcoin and so they banned bitcoin and now they're banning ceos from having
00:37:29
too much power that was probably a sequential event that would be very smart on their part you know
00:37:35
can't leave very smart what does this do to like the sequoia capital china the masayoshi-san investing heavily there
00:37:44
tencent investing here all the chinese feel very active in the united states investing in companies all the chinese
00:37:50
lps are are fine all the chinese gps are fine all the chinese companies are fine i think
00:37:55
david's right it's just a discount factor i do think it affects global dollar flows and i think it's hard
00:38:01
for um a western capital pool to allocate money into china without doing a little bit more work and
00:38:09
applying a higher discount rate yeah i i have to believe that the conversations happening in these firms that have made
00:38:17
gobs of money in china over the last couple of decades it has to be are we living on borrowed time
00:38:23
how much more time do we have before china says that chinese profits chinese return on investment are going to go to
00:38:30
chinese individuals and companies under our control because that's that's the direction it all seems to be headed yeah
00:38:37
and how quickly can i get my get out of these positions i mean how do you even get out of these positions if this is
00:38:42
the other thing i don't understand if they're going to reverse some ipos how does that
00:38:46
mechanically happen are they going to just say it's a buyout it's a second second transaction and they'll just do
00:38:51
like a a buyout so if massion hassan owns some amount of dd they say here's the here's the price
00:38:59
per share that we pay you here's your cash give us a share ciao that's incredible a forced sale at
00:39:05
whatever price they determine ah no i mean like i think these things will operate more efficiently than that
00:39:10
because you have a distributed shareholder base so you know china can't force a shareholder of dd to sell the
00:39:16
shares because it's listed in an american stock exchange but they but if dd does go private the way that you know
00:39:21
the news reports are saying somebody's going to have to backstop that capital i suspect it will be a
00:39:27
chinese organization so they will take dd private again and then buy out all of the shareholders
00:39:33
who bought from by the way if that does come to pass i think that is the that is an obvious signal that we're
00:39:40
moving into sort of a more a nationalization of critical resources and china has determined that internet
00:39:48
resources are critical and i think that that's right if i was in their shoes that's exactly what i would do as well
00:39:52
does this mean that we should be uh kicking out chinese companies from operating in the u.s i.e tick-tock et
00:39:59
cetera no but i do think that tick-tock needs to get carved out of bike dance and it
00:40:03
needs to have a completely american cap table but that shouldn't be a government edict that should be
00:40:09
something that the bike dance investors and board are scrambling to do right now because otherwise that equity
00:40:15
value may go to zero bike dance should be a half a trillion dollar company it probably is
00:40:21
a couple hundred billion dollar company now which means that it probably lost half of its market value that's crazy
00:40:27
crazy yeah i think i think there's a few things for us to worry about there um i
00:40:30
mean i i i i like the idea of out competing china by having freer and more open capital
00:40:37
markets and allowing anyone in the world to invest in our companies i think the issues with tick tock are more around
00:40:43
data you know we know now that any data that by dance has belongs to the chinese
00:40:49
government this isn't just a tick tock issue it's any company any us company that's doing
00:40:54
business in china look it applies to zoom okay look zoom we're on zoom right now zoom hat is not a chinese company
00:41:02
but it has a giant engineering team in china what are the data implications for that
00:41:08
yeah they stopped routing their servers to remember they had some servers routing through china but i do think
00:41:12
they're going to have to shut down and sell off whatever their assets are in china that's going to be
00:41:17
untenable to have a communication platform you know it's it's kind of like huawei right we don't allow huawei to
00:41:23
operate and we're going to have to do that with software right there's been a big crisper breakthrough
00:41:28
65 year old man named patrick doherty uh was suffering with a disease in which his protein was misshaped misshapen uh
00:41:37
building up in his body destroying important tissues such as nerves his hands and feet he
00:41:42
watched the same disease kill his dad uh and here's the quote had watched others get
00:41:47
crippled and die difficult deaths from this disease and it's a terrible prognosis he entered
00:41:53
a trial utilizing crispr the gene editing tool and researchers reported the data indicating that the experiment
00:42:00
treatment worked well the study doherty volunteered for is the first in which doctors are simply infusing the gene
00:42:06
editor directly into patients and letting it find its own way to the right gene in the right cells in this case the
00:42:11
cells in the liver making the destructive protein the advance is being held not just as
00:42:18
not just for amyloidosis patients but also as a proof of concept that crispr could be used to
00:42:24
treat many other much more common diseases it's a new way of using the innovative technology to my thoughts
00:42:30
i think this is a really important breakthrough and what it allows us to do now is see a world where look if you if
00:42:36
you think about the two different paths of the following idea you're going to make a solution to a
00:42:43
problem if if the problem was an internet company or you wanted to make a product what you would do is you
00:42:50
would go to amazon web services you'd be able to consume a whole set of abstractions and then you would build a
00:42:56
light amount of programming which is essentially like the application logic of your app right i think a lot of
00:43:01
people listening understand that idea because that's what they do here what we're getting to a place is
00:43:06
now soon we're going to be able to view biological problems in the same way so we're building all these small little
00:43:13
building i don't want to call them small but building these very important building blocks that is very much akin
00:43:18
to the building blocks we needed to put together the first set of computers to put together ms-dos all of that allowed
00:43:24
us to create windows windows allowed us to actually access the internet and there was this in-serie autumn
00:43:30
development of things that happened and i think that we're on the verge of that and that's what these kinds of
00:43:34
breakthroughs really show us which is that you can view so for example you know in a different company
00:43:40
they they've created these mrna gate arrays logic gate arrays so if you're you know a chip designer you would
00:43:45
understand how to basically create electrical function in part using you know gate arrays but
00:43:52
if you reduce a biological function to the same idea now that same person has a translational ability to solve a
00:43:57
different problem that they didn't have before so i think what we're saying is that
00:44:02
we're seeing this platformization this awsification a biological tool chain with things like crispr and all the
00:44:11
other modalities that need to stack on top of it so that the next person can view it as a programming problem
00:44:17
and i think that that's the really exciting path that accelerates a lot of this development
00:44:22
but this was an enormously important breakthrough because it validated a lot of what crispr was beyond a lot of
00:44:28
theoretical innovation that that up until now was basically what it was known for and a lot of investment
00:44:34
had gone into companies that were trying to do things but this was the first really important
00:44:38
one [Music] the funny thing about intelli is that it's been public for like seven eight
00:44:43
years and it's just been toiling toiling toiling toiling and then you know the last little while obviously it's gone
00:44:48
absolutely crazy because of this breakthrough yeah and related new cr in related news
00:44:53
crispr creates its first genetically modified marsupials after years of using the gene editing technique crispr to
00:44:59
genetically modify everything from vegetables to labs rodents researchers have used it to edit
00:45:04
one of the hardest target chats marsupials the mit technology reports i guess it turns out they're very hard
00:45:10
to edit and we're now editing more stubbles and changing things like their hair color
00:45:15
so brave new world freeberg was here the freeberg ratio would be off the charts all right wrapping up we have pretty
00:45:21
incredible just just one thing to add to that i mean i think what it what it shows is that these covet vaccines are
00:45:27
just the first product the first breakthrough product of this mrna technology there's going to be a lot
00:45:33
more and what i wonder about is you know this this category of vaccine huston people they're kind of like you know in
00:45:39
the in the technology world you have kind of a spectrum of early adopters late adopters luddites you know people are
00:45:46
actively against technology yeah well i mean luddites are even laggards yeah yeah ludics are even more violently
00:45:53
opposed i think the original luddites um i think the original luddites were in england they lost their jobs at some
00:45:59
factory and so they broke in to the factory with sledgehammers to destroy all the machines that replaced their
00:46:04
jobs so yeah there's clearly a spectrum and what i wonder about is that if you're on sort of the luddite end of the
00:46:09
spectrum with respect to biotechnology i mean are you going to have a materially
00:46:13
worse life because you're not getting the benefits of all these vaccines and all these treatments
00:46:19
and i mean kova could just be the first example of this well i mean if you build
00:46:23
on it it's sort of like we're going to create a two-class society one that is not only dealing with all the maladies
00:46:29
and cancers and and living longer but we haven't even started to think about well
00:46:34
taking somebody who's already in great health and what can you do for them so oh you know what uh you can be two
00:46:40
inches taller you could add 10 iq points you could run faster you could have higher blood oxygen whatever i mean
00:46:47
we could we could genetically modify people to stay underwater for 10 minutes and be you know better processors of
00:46:53
oxygen like other mammals are you could have superhumans i mean that that's basically where this is going yeah and
00:47:01
that unlocks a whole nother level of ethical and moral considerations but you're right there could be a group of
00:47:06
people who are like i don't want to touch any of this and they die at 60 70 80 years old and then we got another
00:47:11
class of people who embrace this and they have 20 more iq points and they live to 120. no i mean it's it
00:47:17
sounds funny but and like science fiction but that is in the realm of possibility in our
00:47:22
lifetimes there's a lot of great science fiction written about this whole sort of
00:47:25
transhumanist idea a book series i really like is uh nexus by ramez nam who actually was a developer at
00:47:34
microsoft and you know then became a writer and he writes with i'd say a high degree of
00:47:40
sort of accurate accuracy and specificity about these technologies and how they might evolve um
00:47:46
people should be sure to check out that book jason be honest if you could actually increase anything in your body
00:47:52
through this gene editing what would it be just throw anything out there but the first
00:47:56
thing is anything out there anything i would increase my muscle mass 100 percent increase my muscle mass by the
00:48:02
way there's a percentage of fat would go down not in reality in absolute terms but
00:48:07
just in percentages so this crispr thing was a public company called intellia therapeutics
00:48:13
but i want to throw a shout out to another startup that seemingly i think may have had a breakthrough this week
00:48:19
called form energy and the reason why these guys are interesting is that they've built this
00:48:24
incredibly massive long duration battery out of iron now why is that important we have really simple ways of harvesting
00:48:36
iron from the earth it is literally everywhere everywhere you look iron exists it's not so true for nickel it's
00:48:42
not true for cobalt it's not true for manganese it's not true for lithium it's not true for all of these other
00:48:48
specialty chemicals that we need in order to build batteries but these guys have solved a very
00:48:54
complicated technical challenge that'll allow you to store energy cheaply which has huge implications for
00:49:00
electricity and grids and so big shout out to these guys at form uh because if if if it looks like
00:49:07
what they said they did is true it's a really important breakthrough that'll have some important uh
00:49:14
ramifications it's a lot it's amazing by the way to see progress now you wake up and you read
00:49:21
these things and you're just like god this is incredible that there are people working away on that really matters
00:49:27
it's almost as if there's like one group we talked about cynicism in a previous episode recently
00:49:33
there's one group of people whether you're in the founder circles or capital allocator or a journalist covering the
00:49:39
space uh who understands it there there's a a technical you know explosion going on here an
00:49:47
innovation that is going to solve a lot of problems and they have another group of people who think that all these
00:49:52
problems are intractable i'm kind of looking at this you know what happened with kovid and i was talking to my wife
00:49:58
about global warming and i was like feels to me like we can solve global warming like it feels like it's very
00:50:04
much in our control and there's another group of people who feel like it's over and don't have kids because the whole
00:50:09
planet is going to go on we're i mean uh i think elon tweeted this out um and i think we've talked about this now with
00:50:16
respect to china but you know we have an enormous problem in the world in general which is that
00:50:22
unless our birth rate is positive and accretive it has huge implications to progress
00:50:28
right if you just like if you eliminate or you decrease the denominator of the global population
00:50:35
the odds that there's another elon musk or jeff bezos that are created are just lower and so net
00:50:41
of anything else a declining population rate particularly in western countries has huge detrimental effects to the
00:50:47
world and so all the folks that think that they're going to solve the ecology of the world by not having kids it's a
00:50:52
little misguided the thing to do is to actually have a positive birth rate find technological solutions to this problem
00:51:00
and allow what we've been able to do which is a rising populace to basically be motivated to work and solve problems
00:51:06
and i think that we have to be very careful about that because if people don't get this right they're going to
00:51:10
take the wrong solution it's not going to be a solution at all and it's going to make the problems even worse could
00:51:16
you imagine if the population of the earth shrank in half what it would mean in terms of productivity services
00:51:23
the health care requirements that are needed the cost of providing those things the economic viability of
00:51:28
countries will go away it would be a disaster yet there is a group of people who feel we should do exactly that
00:51:34
and not a small group of people yeah well they think that i think i think the mistake is in thinking that human
00:51:42
consumption is the problem um and specifically with respect to to climate change or global warming no
00:51:49
you you can't see it that way because look humans in order to exist need to consume and we're going to emit carbon
00:51:57
as part of that process the important thing to focus on is energy production are you shifting to
00:52:04
clean production not because you're never gonna be able to shrink your consumption enough
00:52:09
to to basically eliminate carbon emissions um it has to be done on the production side and one of the
00:52:15
interesting things that's happening now i think we should talk about is in europe they're creating this new
00:52:21
carbon trading plan i think china's even trying to set up one of these markets and so
00:52:26
they're creating these new um you know marketplaces to trade carbon permits and i think the most exciting
00:52:32
part about this is that it gives an incentive for um for innovators to create new
00:52:39
technologies that actually take carbon out of the atmosphere uh they're called negative emissions
00:52:44
technologies because what happens is if you have a technology to take carbon out
00:52:49
of the atmosphere you can now sell a permit on the exchange that gives somebody else the right to emit
00:52:57
that carbon and now those technologies those those um those nets the negative emission technologies it's unclear
00:53:03
whether they really exist yet but no one's going to create them if there's not a customer for them and that's
00:53:09
what's really cool about these new tradable permit schemes is they create a buyer for for for those nets and i think
00:53:16
that's ultimately how we're going to solve this problem of climate change we're not going to do it through
00:53:21
reducing human consumption like we're going to go back to the stone age if you don't want to emit carbon it's about
00:53:27
moving to clean production of energy and creating uh negative emission technologies
00:53:32
yeah let me just build on that for a second there's look there's a bunch of cap and trade systems china basically
00:53:37
has a terror a carbon tax system in place the big thing that none of these folks
00:53:43
have gotten to yet but i think if you look at the laws in europe they're going there is the idea of a carbon tariff
00:53:49
and i think these carbon taxes if they actually exist properly will look like a tariff what does that mean
00:53:56
let's just say you're britain and you want to import a volkswagen from germany if britain has a carbon tariff that says
00:54:05
basically you need to account for all of the emissions that went into making this
00:54:09
car and i'm going to assess an import duty that basically maps to that um i think that that's where the world
00:54:18
is going and that's probably david to your point it's going to be a really big value unlocked because the amount of
00:54:24
money that will get both made but also destroyed in that process will be incredible
00:54:31
and that's where we have a chance to really reimagine consumption in a different way like there are just so
00:54:36
many categories i saw this interesting stat if you look at cpg companies right companies like procter gamble clorox and
00:54:41
you compare them to the places where they sell their goods like walmart and target
00:54:46
every single major big box retailer has basically declared a net zero emission strategy in the next five to ten years
00:54:52
not a single company on the cpg side has actually any plans to do anything meaningful
00:54:58
anywhere near 2030 2045 2050. and when you look under the hood those companies like png and clorox
00:55:06
are enormous emitters enormous so even though you walk into a target in amazon and you try to make yourself feel good
00:55:13
thinking thinking to yourself i'm buying something that's zero emissions it's not true
00:55:18
it's basically that amazon will will bear the cost of getting to net zero but the products that you actually consume
00:55:23
are horrible for the environment and the amount of you know um fossil fuels that
00:55:28
went into it and the amount of plastic that will then get put into the ocean it's
00:55:32
tremendous and so moving slightly more aggressively beyond these cap and trade systems into
00:55:38
something that looks more like a tariff i think could be really important for the world and we're going to need to do
00:55:43
it there's and there are multiple ways to do it i don't know if you guys saw elon backed this
00:55:48
the uh x prize carbon sequestrant sequestrant project which is a 100 million dollar
00:55:56
prize and you can do this in multiple ways you can do it at the factory and there's the
00:56:00
one trees.org i don't know if you saw that where they're trying to plant a trillion trees because that's the
00:56:05
original way to uh sequester this carbon so there's going to be like three or four different ways to do this and if
00:56:10
there's an incentive to do it yeah that um is going to help for sure part of why
00:56:16
there's such political disagreement over this is because you look at approaches like the green new deal
00:56:23
i mean i think they understand the the problem but what they're proposing is always on the consumption side it's
00:56:30
basically politicians picking and choosing how people are going to consume carbon whether it's you know cracking
00:56:35
down on private planes to you know factories i mean again taking us back to the stone age
00:56:41
nobody wants to no no one sane i think wants to support that kind of totalitarian principle that the
00:56:49
politicians get to tell us how to consume but this is this is why i think these these market-based solutions where you
00:56:57
say look carbon emissions are obviously an externality if you want to emit you need to basically pay the correct price
00:57:04
for carbon emissions and we use the the money that you pay as as some sort of whether it's a tax or whether it's
00:57:13
buying a permit we use that money then offset into negative carbon emissions it's a market-based system where the
00:57:19
government controls the externality but they don't dictate how people get to consume carbon and i think that's the
00:57:24
right balance and we don't really have that type of balanced conversation in the u.s yet because
00:57:31
you've kind of got one side that says they want to save the planet but they want to control everything and then
00:57:36
you've got the other side saying well look i want to save the economy because your plan the green new deal is going to
00:57:41
destroy it what we need is is again a market-based solution to this and i guess the
00:57:48
criticism of a market-based solution is you're basically giving people a way to a the most cynical interpretation would
00:57:55
be you can pay to pollute you can just you can pollute all you want and just pay a fine essentially but that's not
00:58:01
the right way to look at it you're actually offsetting somebody else is capturing what you put out there and it
00:58:06
depending on the rules of the road if you had to capture 50 more than you put in you could
00:58:11
create a formula there right i mean there could be some formula that over time there's been a lot of fraud in
00:58:17
this market like um you know people sell these carbon credits from you know certain forests and there's this joke
00:58:24
which is like there's been a tree that's been sold like 80 billion times because
00:58:28
it's like you can't really verify you can only really estimate the amount of carbon
00:58:32
sequestration that you know for example a tree actually does in the first place and so there's been just a lot of um
00:58:39
unfortunately you know fly by night uh unreliable non-trustworthy ways that this market has evolved
00:58:46
people have been waiting for decades for this carbon trading market to really step into high gear which is why some
00:58:51
folks think the more aggressive plan will just be introduce tariffs and let the market david to your point sorted
00:58:56
out jeremiah what do you think the prospects are for these negative emission technologies i i can't believe that a
00:59:02
solution as low tech as planting trees is going to solve the problem yeah yeah so the question is what do you
00:59:09
what do you think assuming we create the market the demand for negative emission technologies the permits
00:59:17
to emit what do you think the prospects are technologically that innovators are going to come up with these solutions i
00:59:24
do think that we are a couple of breakthroughs away from these things being non-issues so i'll give you a
00:59:29
couple of examples if you look at like i'll just use batteries as an example because where i'm spending a lot of time
00:59:34
when you look back and like you ask yourself like how did we decide to make the batteries the way we make
00:59:40
them um you know was it some like you know broad survey of every single chemical
00:59:46
composition and all these different structures and we realized that you know a composition of nickel and manganese
00:59:52
and cobalt was the right thing to do or lithium and iron and phosphate was it turned out that it was mostly like a
00:59:59
handful of people decided and we all just been iterating around the edges ever since
01:00:04
so one of the solutions to a lot of these problems is to actually go back to first principles the problem is that as
01:00:10
these industries get built up and you know this you have so much um pp e like so much equipment so much
01:00:18
investment in physical capex that's happened the idea of switching platforms is almost impossible because it's not
01:00:24
economically viable so we are in this situation today where a bunch of solutions have been proposed
01:00:31
david to solve that problem right the problem with carbon capture and other other things and negative emission
01:00:36
technologies is that they're extremely expensive they're very inefficient they require an enormous amount of energy
01:00:42
themselves and it's not clear that they work so what's happening one is that there's
01:00:48
been some pretty novel innovations in moving people past some of these basic problems by looking at the periodic
01:00:53
table to try to find different ways of solving things like energy storage which has
01:00:58
huge implications to climate but the second is that we are pushing the boundaries of physics in different ways
01:01:04
as well and that's where there's going to be the potential for an enormous breakthrough
01:01:08
specifically around superconductors so what is a superconductor it's something that allows an enormous amount of energy
01:01:16
to basically trans through it now we have this issue which is that you can actually create superconductors in
01:01:22
highly controlled environments that are extremely extremely cold but they have incredible performance characteristics
01:01:27
that would revolutionize power and energy transmission and storage people have been innovating in bringing
01:01:34
that up to room temperature in that breakthrough which i think you will see in the next 20 to 30 years
01:01:42
it's just a complete sea change of how we think about this whole problem so i think the short term we're innovating
01:01:47
in the periodic table in the long term we're figuring out how to bend the laws of physics
01:01:53
and i think that those are those are probably the two most practical solutions to a lot of these things that
01:01:58
remove the constraints that we've created and again the constraints have been completely human defined which is
01:02:04
the sad thing they were not necessary from the start we could have made very different decisions had we known these
01:02:09
problems were going to be as big as they were you know the way that we make plastic didn't have to be this way
01:02:14
right the amount of petroleum that we use it didn't have to be in this specific way but this is where we are
01:02:19
and there are direct air capture technologies dac which is basically an energy issue you can literally suck the
01:02:26
carbon dioxide out of the air and again another another issue of material science because the the
01:02:33
substrates that you use tend to be relatively inefficient and sort of really activate them you're pumping a
01:02:37
tremendous amount of energy through there that's the issue is can you give the energy and i think when we talked
01:02:42
about the small reactors uh the small modular nuclear reactors if energy is free
01:02:49
or it's solar based you could you could kind of get a virtuous cycle going here that's essentially what superconductors
01:02:54
allows you to see is a world where you basically have limitless free energy it sounds like the thing
01:02:59
that we all agree on is that this problem is ultimately going to be solved by innovation and this is the problem i
01:03:04
have with so many of the political proposals is you know our ability to innovate is a
01:03:09
function of the size and scope of our economy and the incentives and rewards for innovation and the freedom for
01:03:15
entrepreneurs to do their thing and if you crush that yeah you know with government mandates you won't get the
01:03:21
innovation we need to get out of this problem we can easily innovate our way out of it
01:03:25
and it requires some individual to say i want to dedicate my life to it and then what is the motivation to do
01:03:32
that and who are the capital allocators who are going to give them the billion dollars to create this
01:03:39
i spent a bunch of time so i'm the capital allocator that'll give billions in fact i did a survey of the
01:03:43
superconductor space as an example and here's what i found of the of the four folks that i found
01:03:51
uh who are all each individually doing things in superconductors that i think are incredible
01:03:56
they're all immigrants every single one were not born in the united states you could you they are
01:04:04
so happy to be here they feel so lucky and they don't understand why everybody complains all the time
01:04:15
yeah complaining is i there's a disease of constantly complaining about stuff and if you count the number of
01:04:23
times you complain every day and it's more than two or three times a day uh you need to get your head examined
01:04:29
you're probably just talking yourself into anxiety problems stop complaining start building i mean these problems are
01:04:34
solvable there is an immigrant in in the united states right now that will figure out how to conduct electricity
01:04:41
without resistance it will transform the world and we are so lucky that that guy came here to to this country
01:04:47
and we have the chance to give the guy a billion dollars one of my favorite movies is uh whack the dog with chris
01:04:54
and robert de niro right yeah and dustin hoffman plays this producer character yeah and every time there's a setback
01:05:01
he's like ah this is nothing i remember when we made this movie and three out of
01:05:05
the four lead actors died and we recast the movie it's like this is nothing yeah
01:05:09
and you know and that's sort of his catchphrase is he's got this can-do attitude where no matter what setback
01:05:15
happens he just makes it he's like oh this is nothing we got it and you know and that's kind of the attitude you need
01:05:20
if you want to be an entrepreneur is there's gonna be so many setbacks you gotta be like ah this is nothing can you
01:05:26
figure out a way around it yeah this one of the guys that are working on superconductors showed me his data for
01:05:30
the last 10 years and what's interesting david to your point is he had a four-year period where
01:05:35
he took a huge step back where basically like you know he had this superconductor
01:05:39
he's like it works at you know i'm just gonna use simpler numbers here but like you know minus 300 celsius he got it all
01:05:47
the way up to minus you know 100 and then it went back to minus 200. for four years
01:05:54
could you imagine the mental devastation and i said how did you deal with it he goes ah you know basically he's like ah
01:06:00
it's nothing yeah and thank god for that guy it's interesting i just listened to quentin
01:06:05
tarantino's on a podcasting tour because he's got a new book he he wrote a novel
01:06:10
out of the once upon a time in hollywood characters and i just started listening to it it's
01:06:15
fantastic uh listen on audible and uh [Music] brian koppelman from the moment interviewed quentin i listened to it
01:06:25
yesterday on my bike ride and he was just talking about how he just never gave up and he had written true romance
01:06:31
and then he wrote um what was the other one he wrote at that time natural born killers natural killers yeah and he was
01:06:38
just talking about how the first movie nobody would do then he wrote the two screenplays and nobody would do and then
01:06:44
he got to our dogs and you know they tried to scrape together eight hundred thousand dollars and
01:06:51
he kept asking like why didn't you quit why didn't you quit he's like well you know i just i figured it out like i
01:06:55
figured out i had a voice and then nobody would buy my scripts because i was trying to do something innovative
01:07:01
and they were reading the scripts and they didn't understand what i was doing in terms of innovating on how a movie
01:07:07
would be with you know how he does with pulp fiction he changes the time and tells the storytelling in a non-linear
01:07:12
fashion he's like nobody understood it but every time i read it i realized i had a voice it was my voice it was
01:07:17
getting better and better and then people you know i sold those movies and then he kept building them and it was
01:07:23
very inspiring to think about that take of like he just didn't give up and he just
01:07:28
totally looked at his work and he found his he found his own value in his own work
01:07:34
improving even without the external you know it's a it's a fantastic story it's like
01:07:40
one of those classic you know hollywood or entrepreneur stories he's working at a video store for years
01:07:46
and you know he would start recording he was uh making his own movie and he would
01:07:51
uh film on the weekends and then you know he made a few hundred dollars every week basically and then he would rent
01:07:56
the equipment on a friday because then they would only charge him for one day because it was the weekend so he could
01:08:01
basically record the entire weekend and so he'd go off and record and and then he'd have to go back to work
01:08:07
and he started making this movie you know one weekend at a time for like two or three years and then he finally put
01:08:13
he didn't even have the money to get the film developed so finally after three years he gets the film develop and he's
01:08:18
unfortunately it sucked it wasn't what he was expecting but during that time uh he wrote true romance which then got
01:08:24
bought he sold that screenplay that gave him a little bit of money then he wrote reservoir dogs and then he
01:08:30
met lawrence bender and you know bender went out read the script it was like holy that's amazing they raised the
01:08:36
you know million or so bucks to make the movie and then that kind of launched everything and uh yeah it's it's one of
01:08:41
these you know amazing rags to riches stories um you know they're kind of rare and or
01:08:47
they're more rare in hollywood they occur all the time in the tech such industry
01:08:52
interesting point he said uh they're like you would never let you make that movie now and you know in
01:08:57
another conversation i think i listened to three podcasts with them uh joe rogan
01:09:01
brady cineless and then brian koppelmans and all three of them are tremendous but
01:09:06
uh i think in the bretty cinel and in the joe rogan one he's like oh they would never let you make that movie he
01:09:10
was like you can just make it i just made it i did you not see the last two films and
01:09:14
how politically incorrect they were and you know i don't care what bruce lee's you know fans think of how i portray
01:09:20
bruce lee he was a he was a bad actor he was a terrible you know human being to these folks and he his basic thing was
01:09:28
everybody keeps waiting to ask for permission and he's like i'm just going to make my movies
01:09:33
and uh let the chips fall where they may i'm not going to be censored i'm not going to censor myself and i'll make my
01:09:38
10 movies and that's it game over i'm going to tell it right a story i want to tell this uh poker story i get
01:09:44
one last thought on tarantula yeah you tell your story tarantino's success with reservoir dogs i think it came out in
01:09:50
1991 that really inspired me to want to make movies um because i saw that somebody
01:09:56
could make a movie outside the system for so little money and that's why i made thank for smoking um and we have
01:10:02
another we have another independent movie coming out next year about several dali which you know finally got made
01:10:07
after about 15 years so um yeah i mean he's inspired a lot of people and he shows what can be done uh this is a rags
01:10:15
to riches story that involves j-count so uh i get invited i get invited to the harvard business school to give a speech
01:10:22
first and last time i was invited because i was disinvited jason after that what happened but well the back two
01:10:27
rows walked out in the first five minutes wow incredible it was incredible like we i get invited to do this thing
01:10:35
obviously it's in boston it's in winter time right jacob it was it was winter and it was boston it's like not a great
01:10:40
trip so sax you know i was like okay jacob what are we gonna do to spice this trip up and we invite big al
01:10:46
oh okay and uh we get on the plane and big al says oh you want to play a little poker i said
01:10:53
absolutely and i turned to jake allen i said jason do you want to play he's like
01:10:58
i said you know you guys can play against each other and i said jason why don't you deal he's like i'm not
01:11:03
interested in dealing and i said j kyle i'll give you ten percent of whatever i win i was like shuffle up
01:11:12
he deals the game for six hours from l.a chinese poker to boston i smash big al i smash miguel smash uh i
01:11:26
smashed him and then we go into the thing we have like a nice dinner blah blah blah we go
01:11:31
out we have the thing at the at harvard where i said something like you know i think an mba is
01:11:37
basically worthless it's just not a good use of your time i think you should be out building things
01:11:42
the back two rows walked out they were completely offended and uh i did the speech it doesn't matter i get back on
01:11:48
the plane and we're flying back and uh at some point i realized i said jason what's the tally
01:11:55
and jason says i'm up 40 000. and i said excuse me you're up for and it turned out that i was
01:12:04
smashing him smashing smashing anyways the long story short of it was that we circled for a few times and then we
01:12:11
finally landed and jkl won fifty five thousand dollars but that's circling so you could win more okay
01:12:17
here's what you don't know through the pack of cards at jason and said i never want to see you ever again i
01:12:24
never want to have you play poker sure guys i went to the pilots and i told them i'll give you five grand if
01:12:29
you can make this flight last another hour and they were like yeah we got a circle they got
01:12:33
we just kept circling i was like i gotta get another hour in he lost five hundred and fifty thousand
01:12:41
dollars on a stupid trip he never even wanted to come he just came he didn't wanna go to the best michelin
01:12:46
star restaurant in boston oh my god in boston it's so stuffy by the way it's so stuffy
01:12:52
and so stuffy they take themselves so seriously and they're trying to you know bring you
01:12:58
know 18 courses to us and you know big owls are big guys he's called big al for a reason i mean he's a
01:13:05
linebacker and they say the big he's like i'll take this i want a steak what do you think
01:13:10
he's like oh there's a steak included in the prefix you should do the tasting manure it's like oh yeah tasting money
01:13:14
it let's go i'll put more truffles on it like it's not truffle season sorry he's like okay we'll make it truffle
01:13:18
seasoning anyway he start bringing the food and he he wants to eat a steak and they bring him like you know what i
01:13:27
was funny sees in a movie where like they pulled the tin and it's like a like a small piece of meat that's like giant
01:13:34
giant shaffer comes flying off a piece of parsley and that's it the steak was the size of a pack of
01:13:42
wrigley's gum i am not kidding they took like a beautiful steak and they just made a little rectangle out of it
01:13:50
he takes his fork he puts it on and he holds it up to the woman he goes where's my steak and he puts the whole
01:13:57
thing if you ask him about the strip he's like i lost so much money yeah he's like i
01:14:15
didn't eat it was cold and but it was cold it was the worst trip ever this is a horrible trip ever and he
01:14:21
is like the woman's like well how can we make you happy he's like bring me a steak
01:14:26
well sir we gave you a steak point the steak container how many steaks how many steaks are you going to afford now that
01:14:31
uh robin hood just went public congrats um yeah you know it's right now it's my third biggest win uh ubercom and then
01:14:39
this one and you know time in market i i think robin hood going out at 30 billion
01:14:46
there's a chance this could go 10 20 30 x from here i think it could be a trillion dollar company someday
01:14:51
22 million members even through all the craziness that we talked about on this podcast uh you know they're learning
01:14:57
they're fixing things and 22 million people using the product and they're gonna launch so many other products as
01:15:03
part of it and all these young people getting financially literate i know it's a
01:15:07
double-edged sword but i kind of feel like this generation balance it's it's it's better balance is
01:15:12
important i mean can you imagine if we were in our 20s trading derivatives and options and just trading stocks all day
01:15:19
i wanted to do that but it was too hard you had to get a broker it was 35 dollars a trade when i started trading
01:15:24
and you had to call charles schwab and put it in order all the things of all the things i could
01:15:30
have done online in my 20s and 30s uh trading stocks what didn't end up being high on the list but
01:15:36
you didn't play right but that's what these kids are doing like for them this is you know in
01:15:42
the same zone a lot of them as sports betting wagering playing poker for money they're they're
01:15:48
learning i don't know how you feel like investment strategy well i mean if you make a lot of
01:15:54
mistakes early in your career when you're making 100 bets or buying a tenth of a stock that's true you know it's
01:15:59
small stakes and you're going to learn a hell of a lot so i think the education part is you can only learn by doing
01:16:05
right sex i mean you just really can't learn in a you know anything okay listen there's
01:16:09
been an amazing episode even without freeberg uh we miss you freebird come back next week uh let the conspiracy
01:16:14
theories abound but freeburg just was busy he couldn't make it and we all wanted to we
01:16:20
missed each other so we wanted to see our besties we love you freeburg and we love you freebird we love you for your
01:16:24
bird back at your favorite and we'll see you all next time on the all in podcast
01:16:29
bye-bye rain man david and it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:16:51
besties [Music] we need to get back [Music]