00:00:00
Jake out do you have intros today no I don't have time for intros oh come on all right fine he started as a nerd with
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no followers on Twitter now he's a nerd that gets recognized when leaving the [ __ ] he turned water into wine he
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just wants to please us now he's a mixture of Kermit defrog and a science nerd Jesus he's the man with the stands
00:00:18
the queen of quinoa the Sultan of science the prince of Prozac the Lord of Lexapro he gets stops for selfies all
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over town my producer fee gave him a mental breakdown the zultan of Zoloft Mr David Friedberg it's true it did give me
00:00:31
a breakdown but you're over it now you just name dropped three ssris in that intro is incredible well I talked to his
00:00:38
I talked to his psychiatrist he said he's working on the cocktail yeah save some for me
00:00:44
oh oh you speaking of you he's got a very quick wit and impeccable grammar known for building beautiful products
00:00:50
that don't work oh my God like Colin and Yammer he used to invest in SAS quite a
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lot now he's fighting a brigade of Ukraine Bots he's spending so much time in his bunker it's starting to get
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smelly we see him only three times a week all in Tucker and Megyn Kelly he'd invest in your startup if you had the
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Knack but right now he needs that cash for his GOP Super PAC the world's biggest [ __ ] the Rain Man himself Mr
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David sacks that's all that's a repeat joke that's not I know but it kills every time so I'm gonna
00:01:22
keep repeating it until you tell you it's friends with his white truffles he scaled Facebook to a billy that wine
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collection it's just [ __ ] silly he's on the world tour meeting with princes and kings is he talking luxury sweaters
00:01:38
or maybe bigger things the dictator himself chamath polyhapatia that was really nice actually wow I mean I
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appreciate it you were obviously trying to get invited to dinner tonight because
00:01:49
I'm trying to get off the alternate alternative list he's trying to get off the alternate that the email was harsh
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nine was alternate all right you were trolling me I know I have a seat as for me I'm the world's greatest moderator
00:02:00
who can take a note compared to these guys I'm just a millionaire who's broke the all in Summit almost killed us but
00:02:06
we came back from Death store I knew he peaked when Friedberg took over the Dance Floor we love the fans but we love
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each other more thanks for the first 100 fellas here's to 100 more really good wow that's really really good look at
00:02:20
you touching surprisingly you came prepared today first time he fought after 100 he
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finally to prepare so that was the note just prepare your job just do your job do
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your job do your job do your unremutirated job do your job speaking of unremmediated we heard that
00:02:41
somebody's grifting off the Pod oh yeah so good point what we heard sex is that you got a big care package from
00:02:48
Montclair yeah that's true what what I think we're all going to declare today is that we all want to wet our beak and
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if Montclair sends each of us a care package we will all wear Montclair gear at episode 100 of course my brand go to
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your own brand yeah we decided to jamasca Laura piano I got Montclair you go get like you know Izod or something
00:03:12
I saw it actually I got eyes on too you have to just uh I got Uniqlo we got Gap Kids for Jay cow
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it sucks you didn't you didn't declare your Moncler gift package that was the discovery we made this weekend so I want
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to thank I want to thank the folks that there's a company called and they sent me this uh gift actually
00:03:35
this hoodie this Montclair hoodie which I never said what is this plug they send you a hoodie for 1200
00:03:45
or from Montclair yeah these guys are getting hundreds of thousands of dollars yeah how bad is your portfolio that
00:03:57
you're grifting did you put this Montclair stuff onto like eBay after you got it I was already wearing it they
00:04:03
sent me more so I'm gonna wear this hoodie is pretty cool what can I say I'm not gonna work it's three cents and all
00:04:08
of a sudden you're grifting uh hey just for everyone listening I'm looking for a
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wardrobe too soon okay just send my package to my own let me tell you something there's no upgrade that's
00:04:17
gonna help Freeburg I think you're [ __ ] no I'm gonna bring you guys Montclair shirts to the poker game
00:04:21
tonight gee thanks sax appreciate that how did how did you guys even find out that he got this gift we're at his Fleet
00:04:28
Week party and there was an angel some uh Blue Angels party and there's someone there
00:04:33
who started telling me like did you hear the sex cut this whole thing oh somebody
00:04:37
there's a rat there was a I'm not telling you there's a rest but he's got to leave he's got a mole we were talking
00:04:43
about the podcast we were talking about 100 100 it was away 100 no no it wasn't what way no 100 was it Jeff I know what
00:04:51
are my one of my friends was in the man cave and he saw this like care package from Montclair and he really admired
00:04:58
this like jacket it was like a puffer jacket but with like wool sleeves or something so you gave it to him and I
00:05:04
gave it to he liked it so much I'm like I'm like here you take it you're not even on the Pod he's not even on the
00:05:09
podcast give it to producer Nick so he was walking around with it he was really appreciative so maybe he said something
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or well see let's just say there was a lot of conversations going on about your care
00:05:21
package socks well and it makes us Wonder sacks are there other care packages that have come in and like have
00:05:28
you been promoting other stuff on here so who makes the captions behind the magazines that you wouldn't want how
00:05:33
much of your Laurel piano have you actually paid for over the past year that's 100 here 100 I would never I
00:05:39
would never accept it for free it's important look wait no all joking aside it's hard if you're running a clothing
00:05:48
business especially if you're like a small Niche provider stuff so yeah you have a responsibility to pay for this
00:05:53
stuff not to grift and get it for free I know when I was at the Laura piano store
00:05:57
on 57th Street in Manhattan the 18 000 square foot store I was thinking the same thing these poor people how do they
00:06:03
survive well literally 170 square foot renters Friedberg exploiting poor baby goats well whatever
00:06:14
I mean the fact is the Market's down there's gonna be a little grifting on the margins it's understandable
00:06:19
[Music] let your winners [Music] we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with them
00:06:35
Freeburg he loves to produce every 17th episode he does a great job oh no I like
00:06:40
to prepare or at least know what the heck we're going to talk about when we get together
00:06:49
oh God all right so first up on uh freeberg's curiousness this is uh free bird this is how you're gonna do it
00:06:56
let's skip ahead to the next section come on no no okay so um go go go why do you think chamoth
00:07:03
people love the podcast why do you think they listen why do you think they love it what is the the phenomenon what what
00:07:09
lightning has been captured in this bottle first is I think that they appreciate our friendship it's kind of
00:07:15
like odd and quirky and I think a lot of you know it maps to like relationships that they
00:07:22
have amongst their own friends so that's what makes it relatable but the second is that all of us
00:07:28
uniquely have a point of view about stuff that matters more and more in the world I think that's just the
00:07:36
basics of it like it's not like technology is going away and it's not like its impact in the
00:07:40
world is going away and the more it becomes mainstream the more it's important for a lot of folks to
00:07:45
understand what's happening and I think we provide a pretty unfiltered view of it and
00:07:52
we do it where and this is a lot of credit to sax more than anyone else on this show
00:07:58
to take a Counterpoint and steal man what would otherwise be controversial views and if he didn't have his three
00:08:04
friends around him that would make the Pod meaningfully worse I think can you evacuate for people who don't
00:08:10
know what steel Manning is what that means well just it just means like to have intellectual honesty around a point
00:08:15
of view and actually put your best foot forward and trying to explain it even when it's not Orthodox even when it's
00:08:21
not what the mainstream would say is right and so what it actually does is it creates a contrast against every other
00:08:28
alternative that you have to learn about things which you find incrementally is biased and I think that's what we've
00:08:37
gotten right we are four friends that have a reasonable point of view rooted in some amount of success and I think
00:08:43
that that's important because it gives us credibility and we take all sides of issues
00:08:48
yeah and oftentimes it is not the obvious simple reductive answer and I think that that's where
00:08:57
um it really shines just so people know about the steel man argument you want to
00:09:00
make sure people are currently I think most people refer to it as the act of presenting the other argument in the
00:09:06
strongest way possible to be intellectually honest like the opposite exactly obviously because the way the
00:09:12
way the debate happens on Twitter and so forth is it's almost like the intellectual debate is uh being attacked
00:09:20
uh using opposition research tactics like or a political campaign so in other words they go back through anything you
00:09:26
might have said or written take the the thing that was most wrong or at least justifiable or the thing they can even
00:09:32
just take out of context and then they'll try to make it about that as opposed to the argument you're actually
00:09:38
making and we just see this tactic over and over again and it's not an intellectually rigorous way of having a
00:09:46
debate about something you don't learn anything right and deep down inside you know that it's contrived and that is the
00:09:52
in a nutshell so it has it almost in many ways has less to do with how good we are but frankly how bad all the
00:10:00
alternatives are so even if you wanted to learn about tech and you go up and you sign up for
00:10:04
these newsletters or if you look at some of these Tech sites they're really terrible
00:10:11
and they have done an increasingly terrible job over the last five years in telling
00:10:17
the most important things the truth and everything in between and so if you can find a source
00:10:24
for an hour a week that is trying to tell you how basically the world is going to come together in a really
00:10:33
integrated multi-faceted way it's not like we're right and it's not like we know better than
00:10:39
other people in fact many times a lot of the criticism I get is how dare you talk
00:10:43
about X or how dare you talk about why because it makes people who are experts in that field you know feel like how
00:10:49
dare you come into my realm and even have an opinion on you know uh what Russian politics was like in the 1980s
00:10:55
and those things really annoy these folks because they feel that those opinions and that knowledge
00:11:01
should be cordoned off and held tightly as this secret that only they are allowed to talk about into the world and
00:11:07
this is the point where with the internet all this knowledge is accessible so the
00:11:13
value of that knowledge in my opinion is the least it's ever been it's the interpretation that's valuable and it's
00:11:19
the ability to actually like think narratively around how all these things connect and this is where I give a lot
00:11:24
of credit I think you guys do an incredible job I think the way fried Brooke thinks is super unique I think
00:11:29
the way that saxis thinks is unique I think jaycal your courage to basically fight back is very special all of it
00:11:36
together is a really unique recipe it works and what I will tell you consistently
00:11:41
is the number of people that listen to this of import and influence I am constantly
00:11:49
shocked and if you are not sure of it you need to get out of this stupid little Echo chamber of Silicon Valley go
00:11:56
to New York go around the world and if you're in the right meetings it's incredible how folks are getting
00:12:00
educated using this pod and I think that's that's really amazing yeah I think I I think there's like been a
00:12:06
tendency in like what we call Media today historically kind of you know communication amongst humans it was very
00:12:15
slow for a communication cycle to go from beginning to end to close because we had print and books and then
00:12:22
telegraphs and telephones and then television and then and radio and the internet I think has really
00:12:27
changed the cycle um the loop cycle to the point that you know a story iterates and proliferates
00:12:34
very quickly a lot of people talk about the new cycle being very short nowadays and what that means is that there is a
00:12:43
group think approach to resolving to a point of view on what the news is so the news comes out everyone iterates on it
00:12:51
they form their point of view and all of a sudden everyone's on the same point of
00:12:54
view and so there is no room for Dissent or debate or discussion because the cycle closes so quickly and everyone
00:13:00
coalesces around the same point of view and nowadays I think we see not just that unipolar behavior but we see this
00:13:07
bipolar Behavior where everyone coalesces on their point of view and how their point of view is is the opposite
00:13:14
of the other side and everyone has their own heuristic for what the other side is
00:13:18
there's this populism versus elitism sighting there's this red versus blue sighting
00:13:24
there's this Us Versus Them citing US versus China citing everything is now bipolar and so you very quickly coalesce
00:13:32
around what your poll says and what your poll is instructing you to believe and that is what is fundamentally wrong with
00:13:39
how the system is working today and I think what people find refreshing about a discourse that doesn't succumb to that
00:13:47
bipolarity as a standard is that it provides people the ability to have a real rational out of sync
00:13:55
point of view that maybe changes one's point of view and changes one's mind in a meaningful way and I think that's
00:14:00
what's really missing today and I think maybe sometimes we do a good job and we touch on that
00:14:05
and so that's what I would strive to do is to always try and avoid that bipolarity on everything you know the um
00:14:12
Zen Buddhists call it dualistic thinking you know the human brain and generally the universe seems to evolve into this
00:14:19
kind of dualism on everything and it's not really always the case that there are Shades of Gray that there um
00:14:25
is Nuance uh that there is a complex uh dimensionality to things that I think people really if they take the time to
00:14:32
understand recognize that maybe it's not left and right maybe it's not Elite and
00:14:35
populism maybe it's not all black and white and that's an important hopefully framing that maybe we can
00:14:41
bring bring to light through our diagnosis of what's going on in things right now yeah and I I'd like to add to
00:14:47
that I think there's there's a ton of great journalism going out there we see it um there's a ton of great sub Stacks
00:14:52
out there people go deep there's other great podcasts out there and right now it's a tumultuous time for media
00:14:57
journalism and and getting information and do what trust what sources do we actually trust who actually is thinking
00:15:04
in a crisp way um and informing people and you know having been a former journalist when we
00:15:10
were journalists we knew that we would get 10 20 30 40 of a story we would publish it and we would try our best uh
00:15:17
but journalism has changed dramatically in the last 20 years and I can tell you journalism is dead sorry okay I'm sorry
00:15:25
there's some great journalism occurring it's on the margins it's irrelevant and I'll tell you why because the facts are
00:15:31
known instantaneously on Twitter and through the internet we don't need people to relay facts we need people to
00:15:37
wrap facts in context and allow us to come to our own conclusions that's why I think journalism isn't what it used to
00:15:43
be that's why people who are historically journalists struggle because now they actually have to create
00:15:49
context and narrative and have an opinion but when you publish that into the Wall Street Journal or the New York
00:15:54
Times it becomes very confusing they don't know that that's what they were supposed to do that's not what they used
00:15:59
to do that's not how Pulitzer prizes were were historically given out and that's why everybody then you know Rants
00:16:05
and rails about things kind of going is you know if you if you look at it as journalists people don't know this but
00:16:11
journalists are being compensated they're little salaries in many cases are based on their follower accounts
00:16:16
they're based on what audience they're bringing to the table and you see this in sub stack sub Stacks just said we're
00:16:21
going to hire the top journalists on who have the most followers on Twitter but you have to
00:16:26
change the word so that you change how people think about it these people are not journalists these people are opinion
00:16:30
makers okay in some cases they're doing journalism in some cases no no there are
00:16:35
some cases where they're actually doing real journalism there are people doing investigative reporting still it's not
00:16:39
the majority of what you see but it still exists it's just a very much smaller percentage but putting that
00:16:45
aside if you think about but you can't wrap a virtuous blanket around every a thousand people because of the acts of
00:16:51
one I'm not and I'm not I said there's a range here it's a small percentage but this is
00:16:58
what do you think that percentage of content creation I put it at five percent so that's you know one out of
00:17:03
20. yeah shocked yeah anyway I think it's less than one percent but let me just finish this one thought here you
00:17:08
know if you are going to be hired and compensated and we we talk about systems here a lot so just thinking from first
00:17:16
principles if you're a journalist if you're a writer opinion writer whatever you produce content for Wall Street
00:17:20
Journal for podcasts Etc today let this sink in your follower account is what your book Advance is
00:17:28
it's what your compensation is it's who hires you now if that's the truth and it's it's not all the time but I think
00:17:35
that your job is not to relay facts we can get facts exactly let me finish my thought here and so then what happens is
00:17:42
how is follower account on Twitter actually derived how do you get that follower count by being tribal and so
00:17:48
what's happened is journalists that became tribal they get big followings they give spicy takes they pick a side
00:17:54
and then their compensation follows it and that's why New York Times said can we all stop on Twitter and they
00:17:59
literally put an edict out then you look at this podcast I think people look at us as you know in their mixture
00:18:05
podcasting long form taking the time week after week to spend 90 minutes chopping these things up I think that's
00:18:12
what to the original question Freeburg you had is what people find so great I I when people ask me I say it's really
00:18:18
about the fact that there's a there's a friendships here and it's funny but it's
00:18:21
also informative and it it's insightful and at times as you're pointing out your
00:18:24
mouth you know random acts of bravery and taking positions that are not popular and and to think that you and Friedberg
00:18:32
almost blew this up over a few hundredk I didn't oh yeah no the two of you equally should share I wouldn't classify
00:18:39
it that way by the way here we go now the bad feelings are ready getting spicy I'm more of an ethical framework but
00:18:47
yeah that's mine go ahead that's even worse look at Jim Bob stirring the pot just to
00:18:54
chime in on this point I mean I think I'm in violent agreement with you guys but I'd frame it a little differently I
00:18:58
think the reason why people seek out our podcasts and other podcasts and sub Stacks is and and sort of this kind of
00:19:06
independent journalism and are willing to pay for it is because the mainstream media has become totally
00:19:13
devoid of substance it's as partisan and idiol and ideologized as it's ever been
00:19:19
reporters are extremely ideological you look at the New York Times The Washington Post the your major
00:19:25
television networks it's all kind of the same thing and yeah there is like you know a little bit of an echo chamber
00:19:31
problem in terms of the partisan politics but the mainstream media is the most ideologized it's ever been
00:19:37
I mean just to give you one small example that we talked about in the pod the you know we had two quarters of
00:19:43
negative GDP growth which the media is always considered to be the definition of recession and then all of a sudden
00:19:47
they said no we can't know what a recession is anymore because they know that'd be a horrible headline for Biden
00:19:52
right before the midterm elections that's more of a partisan version I think on the you know a more ideological
00:19:58
version would be just around this Ukraine war I mean it's just incredible how biased the coverage is they don't
00:20:04
even present the other side of the story like it's called the meershimer take about how we got to this point that
00:20:11
we're in so the American people just aren't being informed at all I you know we we love to talk about how the people
00:20:18
of all these other countries are being propagandized by their governments we never talk about how propagandized the
00:20:23
American people are the media does not present the other side of the story at all on how we got into the Ukraine war
00:20:31
and how we're now at the brink of what Biden calls Armageddon that we see you know effectively short formed and
00:20:46
short form meaning it can be presented in a sound bike or on a tick tock clip or in a couple paragraphs where
00:20:53
someone's attention span before someone's attention span lapses out always misses the dimensionality that
00:20:59
got us to that point and so there's one perspective one point of view on one dimension and the dimension like tax is
00:21:06
talking about about the time and the history of the Dynamics of all the countries and all the people and all the
00:21:12
interactions that have happened for the past couple of decades that led up to this moment but then this moment is
00:21:18
taken in its context alone and reclassified as being something that is good versus evil it completely misses
00:21:26
the entire storyline of what happened it's like going to be end of a fairy tale and saying here's this moment of
00:21:31
what happened and all the build up and all the things that occurred are often missing and all the different sides of
00:21:36
the story are missing and I think that that's really what makes it so difficult today to feel like you can trust
00:21:42
Authority and that you can trust the the media that's presented to you as a consumer not just in the US or in the
00:21:49
west but around the world because there's so much that's left out and manipulated and kept away and what
00:21:54
people are waking up to is the fact as kamath points out that so much of that information the direct information is
00:22:02
available now and so this investigation this ability to uncover the data and the
00:22:08
story lines and the perspectives that are typically missing from one form of media is making people realize that
00:22:14
there's so much that's being left out the lie about this 100 100 and I think in this podcast that's what's really
00:22:20
shocking to people nowadays and I think that's what makes maybe to some degree hold our conversations a little more
00:22:25
appealing I'll I'll drop to you in a second there sex but I did see this happen in three specific topics that we
00:22:31
discussed here uh if you remember we talked about abortion and we were on that topic very early and no one wanted
00:22:37
to talk I remember when we started talking about the number of weeks maybe how Europe looks at this that wasn't
00:22:42
part of the popular conversation it was always just are you against Choice are you for killing babies it was like a
00:22:48
very two-dimensional look at it immigration same thing nobody would talk about the numbers nobody talked about
00:22:53
recruitment nobody talked about the point systems used in other countries it was almost like those basic things were
00:22:58
not allowed to be discussed why can't the media discuss those nuances and freedom of speech is I think the biggest
00:23:05
one and the search for truth you know nobody wants to talk about the fact that the ACLU used to actually protect
00:23:12
unpopular speech and unpopular speeches you know the hardest thing in the world to protect but how did that become
00:23:18
something we can't even talk about now right and and just the snap uh silencing of any opinion whether it's Chappelle or
00:23:26
you know pick a topic in freedom of speech Trump Etc you know who gets protection for freedom of speech and
00:23:33
we'll talk about it later on the news with Alex Jones obviously a very uh controversial topic as well go ahead sax
00:23:37
do you want to add something to it well I think just to take this Ukraine situation as an example I think the
00:23:42
media's biggest power is the power to Define when time begins on an issue well like right with Ukraine we're part of an
00:23:52
escalatory spiral that's been going on for well more more than eight or nine months this issue's been going on since
00:23:59
2000 decade yeah for a decade so in other words if you come in in like the seventh inning okay so it's a free Works
00:24:07
point you come in at the end of the story and it's been an escalatory spiral but the media just pretends like time
00:24:12
begins on February 24th of course you're gonna have a certain kind of view on the
00:24:16
subject whereas if you know the history of the situation if you know that back in the 1990s you had people like George
00:24:24
Kennan who was the architect of our Cold War containment policy you had uh William J Perry was Bill Clinton's
00:24:29
defense secretary you had Henry Kissinger you had John meersheimer all warn that bringing NATO right up to
00:24:35
Russia's front porch was extremely provocative to them that they would see that as a provocation it would
00:24:40
eventually lead to a moment of crisis when that moment of Crisis finally came you know we're not told that this was
00:24:48
predicted we're told that anyone who says that this war has anything to do with NATO expansion is basically a Putin
00:24:55
apologist and is spouting Putin talking points all right let's not let's not let's save some of that for the Ukraine
00:25:00
talk we're going to talk about it you could agree or disagree with that take but the point is the media doesn't
00:25:05
even portray it they really just pick a side and they I think I like your analogy of like just
00:25:10
coming in for the last 15 minutes of the game and just describing that you know we you need to have a deeper discussion
00:25:16
of how did we get here how did we get here on immigration why don't we have a point system why do we look at people
00:25:21
suddenly coming from South of the Border differently than we did just 20 years ago how did that become a politicized
00:25:26
issue what's the right solution here especially if we can't hire people for basic jobs in the United States
00:25:32
everybody wants to know this question what's your favorite you have a favorite moment or a least favorite moment a a
00:25:40
great moment in the show history and then I guess we'll move on maybe to some audience questions here but let's let's
00:25:44
get this one because an embarrassing moment your favorite moment your least favorite moment a moment now you look
00:25:51
back on and you you're particularly proud of tomorrow I love the cold opens I I think that they are uh unbelievably
00:25:57
human and funny and normalizing they are by far the best part of the pod and yeah that's my that's my absolute
00:26:11
favorite part by by like miles and miles uh it's actually got a favorite moment other than Ukraine other than Ukraine I
00:26:19
know you got Ukraine on the brain probably you when you started talking like Joe Pesci
00:26:24
the Joe Pesci voice do it on command I'm [ __ ] a [ __ ] bad idiot uh no seriously you have any other
00:26:38
favorite moments um or things you're particularly proud of things that people tell you you know
00:26:44
hey I love what do you I love this part of the show I'm also proud that we we were able to air our Dirty Laundry a
00:26:49
little bit in public and still get over ourselves and our own Egos and we're still here I think that takes a
00:26:56
lot of courage and a little bit of a little bit of maturity that's that's not in uh public visibility all the time
00:27:03
in the media I like that sentiment a lot I think there's a lot of people yeah they were uncomfortable about it you
00:27:09
know I I think there's a lot of personal growth that's going on here uh for everybody involved yeah
00:27:15
a Freebird you got a favorite moment other you know I don't like it when you and sex fight that's just that's your
00:27:22
least favorite moment I literally turned I turned my headphones off and I like do
00:27:27
some emailing it really is just it really is just this political thing but yeah it does come up you know I don't
00:27:33
like the fact all the moments I've been interrupted by you that like that just happened five seconds ago like you know
00:27:38
those are usually pretty tough go ahead I don't know what I what I did enjoy I did enjoy meeting people at the summit
00:27:47
who shared that this has been like a really important thing for them to listen to I I think I
00:27:55
I was at a Pete's Coffee in the city and some guy came up to me this was when early after uh early when we were doing
00:28:02
the podcast and he was like listening to you guys has really helped me get through covid
00:28:07
and he was like locked in his apartment and he didn't have a lot of friends and he didn't have a lot of people to talk
00:28:12
with and just being able to hear through you know kind of a good conversation around when's this going to end how's
00:28:19
covid gonna you know what's going to change in the city and hearing our friendship really
00:28:25
made a big difference for him and it was actually really interesting that was off
00:28:28
the show but it made me realize that this show actually is impactful and helpful and made gave me kind of the
00:28:34
energy to keep going even though I've had uh frustrations um in the past so I don't know I like I like those moments a
00:28:40
lot to be honest that there's real value here for people I also I thought the summit was a lot of
00:28:48
fun I mean I had a good time well you know it's uh I I think we're steering towards I think we're staring towards
00:28:55
Summit 2023. that was me starting the pot a little bit George 20 I'm done listen as far as I'm
00:29:03
concerned you do it you produce it or you hire a producer I'll show you I'm if you I don't need to make a
00:29:10
producer fit you can do it you can take the producer free whatever it is all right guys I got a couple of questions
00:29:14
here from the audience you guys uh see this list yeah we can stand out for you guys well you pick you
00:29:20
pick so here's a question um we got it over email from Nathan and Nathan said we know the
00:29:28
reasons uh the reason you guys started the Pod what is the motivation of each bestie to continue doing it every week
00:29:35
and I asked myself that every week that sex is therapy hey it was that was Derpy yesterday I was thinking about
00:29:45
taking a break not because I don't like doing it but it is time consuming and I do want time to get back to doing some
00:29:50
business writing I was on a pretty good track to publish a book about SAS before
00:29:56
he started doing the Pod I had written a lot of business blogs and this is kind of taking a break how many weeks because
00:30:03
wait 10 weeks what are you thinking maybe like a month or something yeah oh four weeks ah wait you can take that's
00:30:09
not a big piece maybe I don't know 40 times all right there's there's a I've got like a right now it's like doing
00:30:14
jumping jacks in his backyard put me in the game well we could do that I mean I've got like five half written business
00:30:20
blogs in my Hopper that I really want to finish and um so I don't know the show does take a lot of cognitive energy is
00:30:27
what you're saying it takes a lot of those things a lot of your time each week sex I mean as you guys know the
00:30:32
taping is only a couple hours but then it's just keeping track of all the issues and then you know if I'm
00:30:37
preparing takes for this pod I also turn some of those takes into articles this is foreign
00:30:54
because he is the most heterodox is the heaviest and this is like poorly understood it's easy to just basically
00:31:01
be on the side of the current conventional wisdom or to not have an opinion and to talk about things that
00:31:06
are orthogonal but David is consistently the one that Wades into the middle of the ocean and it is it I can I can
00:31:12
understand why no because he he knows and that he has to be more prepared than the rest of us yes because he is more
00:31:20
open to the attacks from all of these nitwits he just did I mean on Twitter I'm being told
00:31:29
these are like uninformed nitwits you know they're they're the cancer the cancer of people who comment on Twitter
00:31:36
is the following they suffer from the worst kind of cancer which is a lack of belief in themselves and so what they do
00:31:42
is they point to other people and try to convince yet more people to not believe
00:31:46
in them but that has nothing to do with anything it's just misdirection from their core problem which is they don't
00:31:51
believe in themselves and so you know David has to fight all of that stuff off but he has to fight it off with logic
00:31:56
which must be exhausting you know my Approach has just been to turn off comments and to not start this is the
00:32:02
single biggest problem I think with social media is it's at this heightened point where it's this virulent strain of
00:32:09
a lack of belief in oneself that manifests in this hatred that you direct to anybody else that believes in
00:32:14
themselves interesting interesting Theory yeah and I would just just to add to that
00:32:18
you know it's not like I haven't heard any of the arguments that they're making no I guarantee you they have not heard
00:32:26
the arguments I'm making but but I've heard all the arguments are made 100 I'm totally familiar with 1938 Munich
00:32:32
Neville Chamberlain all this kind of stuff I just don't think that is the correct understanding of what's
00:32:36
happening right now I think the correct historical analogy is either 1914 with World War One and the blank check
00:32:42
guarantee or is 1962 the Cuban Missile Crisis the people on the other side generally don't understand that they are
00:32:50
just kind of part of this like Twitter mob who's buying into the current thing and whatever they're told by the media
00:32:56
so it it is it is a little bit exhausting I think that that's what people don't realize is you know you
00:33:01
when this thing got very popular the two or three days after an episode comes out becomes your text your email
00:33:09
your DMs and your replies become filled especially again I would I would encourage you to keep doing this thing
00:33:15
and just to turn off comments and don't look back yeah it's hard for the first few weeks and then you realize 99 of
00:33:22
people who comment have nothing important or useful or interesting to say like zero like negative zero and you
00:33:28
forget that there's like 99.99 of the world that just reads your content and couldn't even care about their comments
00:33:44
but it would still be time consuming I there is a bunch of business blogs I want to get done so I mean I said you
00:33:50
take two weeks off you come back and see how you feel I mean you can do it week by week too I mean just take one week
00:33:54
off and see it I think you'll I think he'll come back he'll be back of course he'll be back great great question from
00:34:03
Nathan thank you for your participation that's Nathan um next question I actually like this one I'm gonna pull it
00:34:09
out it's an email question from Juan T oh hey wanted uh wanted uh Bill Gurley recently put out a piece explaining how
00:34:16
this might be as good a time as in a decade to build a company how are you guys seeing your own portfolio companies
00:34:22
trying to take advantage of the situation and I guess I'll add do you guys agree and how do you think about
00:34:26
this as a moment for company building okay I could take that one I am seeing a lot of the companies that
00:34:34
were you know had done a great job racing around seed round series a never got product Market fit now wrap it up
00:34:41
right they're they're shutting down they're doing the wind down process and then we're seeing
00:34:46
lists of very talented people and I've talked about this before on the show The consolidation of talent behind the
00:34:51
winning ideas the the the experiments that actually worked products that got some traction are now having an easier
00:34:57
time hiring talent and so to Bill's point he's got a lot more experience in this than the four of us put together is
00:35:04
absolutely right when you build in this down Market yeah it's harder to raise money of course but Talent is what makes
00:35:10
great products and products that Delight customers get the flywheel going and if
00:35:15
you survive through this and you have that Talent you're not going to face 20 copycats and there's not 50 new products
00:35:23
coming out a day people have more time to actually engage and try a product which they've been burnt out on and the
00:35:30
peanut butter spreading you know we have this thin layer of peanut butter Talent
00:35:33
now it's getting Consolidated in the winter so absolutely a great time for five CEOs with and Founders or you know
00:35:40
10 Founders across five companies to consolidate down to two do those tuck-in Acquisitions and get focused and build
00:35:47
really good teams and cut the weakest people on the teams there's a lot of weak talent that have been overpaid and
00:35:52
aren't actually contributing to these teams and they need to get cut and then you pull in the All-Stars it's a
00:35:56
fantastic time he's 100 right all of the if you look back in history since 2000 all of the best performing
00:36:03
funds of all times were the ones that were formed right in the middle of the downturns
00:36:07
030809 these are the vintages that have always been the best and what that means
00:36:11
it's a proxy for investing which is it's the hardest time right now it's when you
00:36:15
have the shakiest hand when you're writing the check but it'll probably be where all of the real money is made or
00:36:22
the real generational wealth both for the entrepreneurs who have the courage to start and the investors who have the
00:36:28
courage to invest there was a story that I heard in New York I was talking to a really well-known
00:36:35
hedge fund or family office and they were talking about how they were meeting with a CEO of a fintech
00:36:43
unicorn very well known fintech unicorn and they said they left the meeting and they said this person had an
00:36:50
unbelievable disrespect for money and it was the most arrogant interaction that they had ever heard and they said
00:36:57
under no circumstances would we invest in this guy in this company at any price and you know lo and behold a year later
00:37:03
that company is now visibly going through a bunch of hiccups and it just reminds me that Jason we've always had
00:37:11
two problems when times are good problem number one is that there's never been a check and balance on that kind of
00:37:18
behavior a lack of respect for Capital and uh and a almost a disregard for business models which is just
00:37:24
inexcusable and I think it's partly the fault of a very young entrepreneur but it's also partly the fault of a board
00:37:31
who doesn't know how to direct that person enablement is real yeah but then the second the second thing is we've
00:37:36
always had this you know this big Tech put on the table where every time you would try to really hone in on running a
00:37:44
lean highly efficient organization the alternative would be to go work at you know Google Facebook Apple Amazon
00:37:50
Microsoft where the terms were just completely different to what the experience was you
00:37:56
know at a startup and the bigger the Gap the harder it was for you to be able to
00:38:01
hire and retain good people without just copying them and now that that's also coming off the table that is a key
00:38:07
moment so Gurley is a hundred percent right there is no longer the big Tech put those are the generals that are
00:38:13
about to get shot over the next eight to twelve months in my opinion in the public markets in terms of market cap
00:38:18
and employment and perks and then second is that these really thoughtful investors who felt pretty deeply
00:38:26
disrespected will now be able to call the shots and these Founders will have to come
00:38:32
back hat in hand and either apologize or just completely find a different religion and I think in that you'll have
00:38:37
a lot of amazing opportunities to build companies I think it's well said tax what are you seeing
00:38:43
yeah I think that's right I mean look when times are as frothy as they were a lot of bad ideas get funded and there's
00:38:48
a lot of bad behavior that occurs I don't think all of it's intentional some of it is just the lack of discipline
00:38:54
that when capitalist is so freely available people are building their businesses in ways that we're optimizing
00:39:00
solely for one variable which was Top Line growth they just weren't paying enough attention to gross margins or
00:39:07
burn and when you then have a downturn in capital is not so available you have to build your business in a much more
00:39:13
Capital efficient way and you can't create fake businesses where you're buying growth that's not economically
00:39:19
Justified you know where you've got negative unique economics around the growth so I think that this downturn is
00:39:26
going to create a ShakeOut it's going to weed out bad ideas bad practices and and
00:39:33
a lack of support Focus bad boards and yeah one-trick ponies you know there's just a
00:39:42
lot of one-trick ponies out there who've optimized growth but don't have a real business and it's going to require it's
00:39:49
going to require entrepreneurs to to play sort of more like multi-variable calculus or math not just single
00:39:56
variable it is extremely difficult to convert TDPI to DPI you know the value of paper values into
00:40:04
actual distributions and that takes a skilled hand and I think that a lot of young
00:40:11
folks were hired into Venture that fundamentally did not know what they were doing
00:40:16
they've neither ever built a company or helped build a company or actually learned how to generate returns but they
00:40:22
became very good at buying you know free call options on companies you know I remember like a lot of people the way
00:40:29
that you these young people I remember I heard a story that you would sell against Gurley right so let's just say
00:40:34
you were trying to do a deal and Bill gives you a a term sheet from Benchmark and you get you know somebody else the
00:40:40
Young Folks are like oh Bill's too negative and he doesn't get it and they would try to convince these
00:40:44
entrepreneurs that you know these rainy days don't happen my experience with Gurley is he is the most sophisticated
00:40:50
investor of Our Generation and what I mean by that is you know he was trained as an equity analyst that
00:40:58
really understood business models and cost of capital and so in A Moment Like This the way
00:41:05
that Gurley would help you on a board is meaningfully more important than how some you know middling VP at some
00:41:11
Randall startup who's now a you know a junior partner at a venture firm because that person has literally no
00:41:17
clue and so these companies are going to go through a very difficult moment which
00:41:22
again is the reason why a good Steady Hand who knows what they're doing will make a ton of money
00:41:28
in this next cycle and for people who don't know tvpi let me just give you a quick definition this is the total value
00:41:33
divided by the paid in capital so total value is distributions like hey here's your Robinhood stock here's your Uber
00:41:40
stock here's Cash Plus the net asset value what's that fancy word for the value of the uh shares of the companies
00:41:46
that haven't had an exit and so you divide those two numbers you get a ratio 1.5 1.2 Etc but to schmatt's point net
00:41:54
asset value is debatable in some of these right and distributions are what matter you can't you can't eat the uh
00:42:00
the irr you got it you got to eat the stuff that's been distributed yeah all right let's keep going I've I'll do one
00:42:06
more I'm going to skip over well I'll just the the question on Twitter that got the most votes was
00:42:12
what's the exact net worth of each bestie uh I would make the case that that's probably not the best way to
00:42:18
measure oneself and you know I don't think we're gonna do it I also would argue that we're probably
00:42:24
all exposed to a lot of Fuzzy Math With Private assets that we own and in terms of companies who cares like how does
00:42:31
that correlate with happiness in life it doesn't right so it doesn't really stupid question and I don't think it's a
00:42:35
big focus in terms of objectives I'll say the next uh one that got a lot of votes which I really like it's a
00:42:42
lagging indicator and a byproduct of what we do there are moments when what we do
00:42:49
reflects in value that frankly where we are over earning and then there are periods where what we do is under
00:42:54
reflected and we are under earning and so the through line has to be that you need to survive in both good times
00:43:01
and bad times which means you got to like what you're doing and if you get caught up in a numerical
00:43:06
number there's all kinds of math you can do to make it look a lot bigger than it
00:43:09
is but it's all meaningless yeah I would argue you're as long as you're actively
00:43:13
developing yourself over time the weighing machine will do its job somebody told me in my 20s
00:43:21
when I was at AOL he said you know if you're because at the time I you know I grew up on welfare I thought the goal
00:43:28
was to make money I didn't know any better I've learned later that there's a lot more leading indicators of
00:43:34
happiness and things that actually cashier create happiness why truffles white truffles um I was gonna say
00:43:41
friendship my family but yeah friendship and family laughs I Define it as laughs
00:43:45
and friendships you know friendships but uh but but he said to me you know your goal should be to
00:43:50
just be in the upper few percent of your age bracket and just enjoy what you're doing and he
00:43:56
said let time take care of everything else because as long as you find something you're you know you decently
00:44:01
enjoy and are good at you'll just get better and better at that thing and then at some point you know you will lose
00:44:08
track of what the you know measurement of that is because you're just too caught up in in how much you enjoy doing
00:44:15
the thing and I thought that he had no idea what he was talking about and now 25 years
00:44:21
later I can tell you he was totally right totally right yeah by the way this this was a question I
00:44:29
was trying to skip over so no but it led to a good Fork yeah okay what is happiness yeah yeah I think after you
00:44:36
know observing outcomes for 25 years in Tech what I would say is that if you're a smart hard-working don't have
00:44:44
behaviors that sabotage yourself and you know take intelligent risks you will be
00:44:48
successful in this business I mean technology is such a wind at your backs it's such an engine of wealth creation
00:44:54
how can you not do well but the exact magnitude of how well you do I think is ultimately it is substantially affected
00:45:01
by timing and you know like if you were employee whatever number X at Google you're going to do better than most
00:45:09
Founders even of the Unicorn company and when you found your company and then when you exit what the market is doing
00:45:15
those things have a huge impact on the ACT on the magnitude so you know whether you end up being you know a billionaire
00:45:23
or a centimillionaire you know a Deca million or whatever you want those things are very affected by timing and
00:45:29
chance but not whether you're going to be successful at a substantial level and so it just you know be smart be hard
00:45:37
working don't sabotage yourself you know get into Tech and you will do well trust the exact amount of how well you
00:45:45
do will be dependent on some you know stochastic factors but not the fact that you're going to do well we are
00:45:51
enormous beneficiaries of having been born when we were because we are a bunch of late 40 and early 50-somethings that
00:46:00
in the prime of our career in Tech um the Federal Reserve took rates to zero and we had no idea a priori how
00:46:10
important that would be in all of our outcomes but they were and even more importantly
00:46:15
PCS Internet and mobile happens all of that hard work was done beforehand by an entire court of people that had to fight
00:46:22
much stronger headwinds than we had to fight so you know David I just want to build on that like we were
00:46:27
extraordinarily lucky and so don't get caught up in that because there's all these factors you don't you
00:46:33
cannot control I'll say one more thing that I think is the most important observation I've made in terms of
00:46:41
whatever it is Building Wealth over time is to make sure you're building equity uh in yourself if you're in a Services
00:46:49
business and every day and whether that's serving the clients of the company you work for or just serving
00:46:55
clients on behalf of yourself and everything you do is a transaction and that transaction doesn't build on itself
00:47:01
doesn't compound value in some way then you're missing out on an opportunity every year that goes by that you're
00:47:08
earning income where you're not building Equity uh is is a non-compounding year and it's compounding Equity value that I
00:47:16
think ultimately pays off for you as an individual and I can give a lot of examples of this but if you're in a
00:47:22
let's say a brokerage business and you just do deals and you might make have a good year you might have a bad
00:47:28
year the real question you need to ask yourself is what is compounding are you growing a client base are you growing
00:47:34
your skill set are you next year able to do more things or have more options than
00:47:39
you had this year and if the number of options you have is declining or static every year then you're limiting your
00:47:44
Equity value and that ultimately will translate into limited wealth creation can I chime in on that point around
00:47:49
Equity so yeah when I discovered what Equity was this was when I was in law school and actually the guy who
00:47:54
explained to me was Antonio gracias a light bulb really went off for me because my dad is a doctor and I was on
00:48:02
a path to becoming a lawyer and in both those cases you're a professional the way you get paid is you more or less
00:48:08
charge an hourly rate and so the amount of money you can make is capped right just take the number of hours in the day
00:48:14
and in the week multiple apply it by your rate and that's the most money you can make in a year and the difference
00:48:21
between that and Equity is with Equity you own a piece of a business and that business could be ultimately worth you
00:48:30
know any amount and so your Equity could therefore be worth virtually any amount
00:48:34
and so you're uncapped and so just you know if you want to have outside success you have to have equity in something I
00:48:42
think that is exactly right if you're just basically working for wages you even if you are the best at what you do
00:48:50
and you get paid an insane hourly rate you again you can be successful but you're not going to be uncapped
00:48:56
and so that is the beauty that's the beauty of Silicon Valley is all these companies offer Equity to everybody and
00:49:02
it's not just shares in something you can actually get equity and create leverage in your life in this era more
00:49:08
than any human has ever had in any era prior because of software and Computing and automation you can create a website
00:49:16
that prints cash for you every day if you wanted to you can create a service that you get leverage out of and there's
00:49:21
Equity value in that and I think that's really key because then you can go build
00:49:25
another one another one and you're building value over time and that's just the most simplistic
00:49:30
example of how technology today provides leverage that can really allow anyone to
00:49:35
pursue a path of equity and and I think you make a good point about what what are you getting leverage off of
00:49:41
yeah so there's there's a bunch of different things so the old way was leverage off labor
00:49:48
and I guess if you were to own like a consulting firm or like some sort of factory then the more people you have
00:49:54
working the more money you'd make the other way would be like you can get leverage off Capital like a fund manager
00:50:01
or you can get leverage off of Technology because software can basically create these super scaled
00:50:06
outcomes so you need to figure out like what is it you're getting leverage off of yeah I'll go so I'll do the last one
00:50:11
which I thought was a really good question and I got a lot of votes from Marcos Ortiz if you had to start from
00:50:18
scratch no money no connections only the knowledge you have right now and 100 bucks what would you build in 2022
00:50:26
I would build something in energy transition or in life sciences with a hundred dollars
00:50:33
yeah I would build a startup incubator Venture fund of some type a way to fund entrepreneurs and just be
00:50:43
a capital allocator much earlier in my career I would create a B2B software company
00:50:49
that actually I'm already creating it so I haven't unveiled it yet but there's something I'm incubating right now let's
00:50:56
go David go whoa where's the bad week wait whoa whoa wait what your beak what is going on here I haven't gotten the
00:51:03
subscription I've not raised money yet my subscription documents sir you can think
00:51:10
of this idea as Yammer 2.0 so Jake how you're not in because you criticize the Amber but it was a joke I gave of you
00:51:16
though I let you win TechCrunch fifth yeah I put the [ __ ] fixing for you David just to put my pitch in I ran
00:51:22
Eamon icq helped Facebook was an investor in Yammer was the for series a investor in slack so I'm ready for you
00:51:28
yeah I'm right here you were there for us when we needed you back at Yammer days unlike J Cal what are you talking
00:51:34
about your meme let me in let me leave it one million round round thank you did you just agree on TV yes
00:51:54
well assuming hold on there's one thing you have to do which is you've got to rip out slack and use this instead yes
00:51:59
100 100 I will do that just so you know Community well I'm gonna be very honest with you the day I left Facebook I
00:52:06
stopped using it the day we sold we distributed slack stopped using it so don't worry about me I am right I am 100
00:52:13
alive with you I'm all in I'm all in absolutely all right let's do the show let's do the show
00:52:18
Freebird you didn't answer that question what would you do well actually I would
00:52:21
get some water vaporizers and then I would get some molecule and I would make a new super protein that was made out of
00:52:29
good sorry let's keep going I like it I think it would be something with the protein slurry you'd make some kind of
00:52:35
steak that takes better mistakes it's some type of protein I would definitely build a business again I
00:52:41
think the you know the challenge is uh As you move past that stage in your career where you know you have the
00:52:50
willingness and the time to be a hundred and twenty percent building one product every day
00:52:56
uh it's it's really hard to go back to that and I think if I was in a position again where I had no money and had no
00:53:03
I think that's the key part of the question not the hundred dollar part yeah I think I would go back to building
00:53:08
something I do think the intersection of Life Sciences with software creates this
00:53:13
era of opportunity it would probably be something in the realm of AIML meets Life Sciences where
00:53:21
you can actually work in a leveraged way with software to drive outcomes in these
00:53:25
important markets so I would actually create right yeah we could have started something
00:53:33
yeah maybe we can still oh okay the co-founders sax will let you in the pre-round if you let us in your
00:53:40
pre-round okay sounds good okay all right Kelly you want to take us forward should we go forward okay let's see
00:53:46
what's on the docket we've got Russia's invasion of Ukraine you had Biden last week saying we're facing the risk of
00:53:56
Armageddon how is that not the top story go taxi poop go take it all right here we go let me just queue it up for uh sax
00:54:03
fine last week so we're facing risk Armageddon that's your tia okay we go and then Leon Panetta just let's teed up
00:54:10
Jayco we don't need everyone knows what's going on Leon Panetta just who was the former
00:54:15
Secretary of Defense and director of Central Intelligence wrote an op-ed for Politico saying that intelligence
00:54:22
analysts have now raised the probability of a use of a technical nuclear weapon in Ukraine from
00:54:29
one to five percent at the beginning of the war to 20 to 25 percent now is what he says
00:54:35
so and I don't think he'd be saying that if this wasn't pretty much conventional
00:54:40
wisdom in Washington now I mean Panetta is sort of an uh very respectable figure
00:54:45
in in the Beltway so you might have said it right for the first time said that we're facing the most dangerous
00:54:50
situation and the highest risk of nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis he called the risk of Armageddon
00:54:57
the problem is that nobody is willing to say what we should be doing differently
00:55:03
to avoid this situation so you know people are always attacking us or having a point of view on foreign policy first
00:55:09
of all this affects us I don't know why we're not allowed to have a point of view but you know in in our business
00:55:14
thinking where there is an existential issue you have the attitude of drop everything and figure this out if
00:55:20
somebody told you that there's a 25 chance of your company blowing up maybe in the next few weeks you would drop
00:55:26
everything and focus on that problem but it's like you know after the Armageddon
00:55:30
comments it's like the media just passed over it it's like oh this is like crazy
00:55:35
Biden or whatever it was minimized it was textualized the White House walked it back nobody's really focusing on this
00:55:42
and what we should be doing differently and in fact what Panetta recommends and Petraeus said the same thing is that if
00:55:48
Russia uses attack nuke in Ukraine then we should respond by attacking Russia directly
00:55:54
now if we do that we are literally in World War III and remember at the beginning of the war Biden was really
00:56:00
clear that we weren't going to get directly involved he vetoed the idea correctly of of the no-fly zone which
00:56:06
would have required us to shoot down Russian planes Biden remember he was asked in the press conference at the
00:56:11
beginning of the war by Lester Holt he said Holt said you know Mr President what if Americans are trapped Behind
00:56:16
Enemy Lines in Ukraine would you send in American troops to go get them buy and said no I think very properly said no
00:56:23
because he said listen we do not want to risk War III but now because of mission
00:56:28
creep and the slippery slope and we've all gotten more involved in this war we've gotten more emotionally committed
00:56:33
you now have Panetta and Petraeus calling for us to directly attack Russia and get in World War III the Russians
00:56:40
almost certainly would respond with nuclear because that's all they've got they don't have the conventional forces
00:56:46
to stand up to us so look at how close we have now gotten to the brink of a nuclear Showdown and has anybody
00:56:53
reassessed is any anyone calling for us to reevaluate because that's the conversation we should be having right
00:56:58
now and free break this brings up two points that I think you you can comment on Naval uh actually
00:57:05
the founder of angelist angel investor and uh just public thinker I would say public intellectual
00:57:11
he came on to call him with the two of you and he you know outlined like who does get to have an opinion on Ukraine
00:57:18
and other issues which has dovetail with this like who gets to be an expert in the world today and of course at the
00:57:26
same time not only Sachs has been commenting on hey what's the off ramp here Elon has been talking about hey you
00:57:32
know how do we get out of this do we have some votes uh you know by these uh regions that have been annexed or that
00:57:39
are in dispute AOC now is getting criticized under for people shouting her down at a public
00:57:44
event today or yesterday that she's a war monger and she won't speak out against War how do you frame the public
00:57:51
dialogue about this Freeburg and then do you see a potential off-ramp here other
00:57:55
than Putin leaves Russia which is I think the public stance uh by a lot of folks you know Putin can end this he
00:58:02
just has to leave Ukraine in order for this to end so two questions there for you free bird it's very hard
00:58:09
to have good dialogue about any situation where an argument could be made on the
00:58:18
grounds of morality in an absolute sense making it really difficult to have a discourse
00:58:25
around what the right thing to do is because you don't agree fundamentally on the objective you're shooting for one
00:58:32
side says the objective is to preserve the Integrity of democracy and the freedom of people
00:58:40
and the other side says the objective should be to secure the interests of the West and the United States and preserve
00:58:48
the world from nuclear Holocaust I think that's what makes this a challenging conversation
00:58:54
the objective can be reframed and then from that objective each side can make their own case without being forced to
00:59:03
take in the point of view of the other side and it's why we're at a bit of a standstill and it's also why it's so
00:59:10
easy to get swept up in a mass point of view a coalesce point of view of the masses
00:59:17
that makes one feel good about what may end up being a very bad situation it feels good to say I'm doing this for
00:59:25
freedom of the people I'm doing this to save lives and the end of the day it may
00:59:30
cause a nuclear war and it's okay because I feel good going into this debate that this is the right
00:59:37
thing it's the morally Superior thing to do what's very hard is that we can't actually say
00:59:45
as a group our objective should be to preserve the Integrity of democracies around the world to an extent and that's
00:59:52
a nuanced point of view to an extent means I'm willing to preserve the democracies through certain
00:59:58
actions but I'm not willing to cross a certain line and absolutism doesn't need to come into play
01:00:06
that's what I think is making this such a very difficult conversation and it's why it's so hard to actually have a
01:00:11
conversation around it and it's really I would argue the most poignant and the most dramatic moment in what we talked
01:00:19
about earlier which is this deep-seated kind of you know bipolarity and once you're sitting on your pole you don't
01:00:26
want to come off and you don't realize that so much of the dialogue is in this middle
01:00:29
and we have to come to some point of view that maybe this isn't about an absolute outcome it's not absolutely
01:00:34
going to be nuclear war and it's not absolutely going to be the end of democracy there's some conversation in
01:00:40
the middle that's very difficult to have and people that work somewhere in the world hopefully
01:00:47
ambassadors foreign policy people State Department people hopefully are having the more nuanced critical conversation
01:00:53
about how do we resolve to the maximal outcome that doesn't necessarily take us to an absolute end to that point it's
01:01:01
going to be an imperfect outcome here I think this is much much simpler than all
01:01:05
of this Leon Panetta is a senior counselor to this defense Contracting agency called
01:01:12
Beacon Global strategies who works on behalf of Raytheon I found that out while Friedberg was talking in a
01:01:18
two-second Google search I suspect that if you looked for petraeus's conflicts of interest you
01:01:23
would find that through some Byzantine set of you know strategic Consulting organizations and whatnot he also works
01:01:30
on behalf of the defense industry so you have these people who will generate more
01:01:35
revenue and more profit if there is a massive war and those people have been trying to push us into a land war in
01:01:45
Europe since this whole thing started and so this is just yet another attempt it's just the most final way of doing it
01:01:51
so I would just encourage people whenever you see all these folks clamoring for war
01:01:58
um it's just to keep in mind that they are riddled with conflict and that you can find it out again this information
01:02:04
is sitting in plain sight on the internet and you can figure out whether this person is is really advocating a
01:02:09
truth that makes sense or they're getting paid to shill um a revenue generating mechanism for
01:02:16
some part of the military industrial sex how much of this is people talking their
01:02:19
book their book being the military industrial complex in your mind I think it's a big part of it I think
01:02:24
all these Washington think tanks are funded by defense contractors I think it's short-sighted obviously because if
01:02:30
it leads to a nuclear war there's nobody with the defense industry there won't be
01:02:33
anything left so but look I think that I think that Washington is wired for war in part because there's a huge Lobby for
01:02:43
it for all these defense contractors and what's the lobby for peace I mean there's no one really arguing for peace
01:02:48
speaking of this Elon oh I I'll tell you what I'll tell you what's lobbying for peace
01:02:53
and I'm going to connect what may seem two disparate ideas together but the single biggest thing I think that will
01:02:59
prevent nuclear war is the inflation that we're feeling and the reason is because it allows the
01:03:06
FED in my opinion for the first time really in the last 15 years to act properly and if they hold the line and
01:03:14
they take interest rates to four or five percent I think one non-obvious outcome of all
01:03:19
of that is it becomes extremely expensive next to Impossible to finance military adventurism abroad
01:03:28
and that's a practical economic outcrop of really you know meaningfully High rates greater than zero
01:03:35
and so I actually think the reality is that for a lot of these governments the more that inflation sticks around
01:03:42
the stickier it is the higher rates are in general the bigger the problems at home are and the less prone they're
01:03:49
going to be likely I actually think that explains that explains the escalation of
01:03:54
this rhetoric because people want to try to make this issue and put it on the table but you understand that you know
01:03:59
these folks don't say it's a 90 likelihood they go from one percent to 25 which if you understand probabilities
01:04:06
is effectively a left tail risk that's effectively the same and the reason they're trying to do it is they're
01:04:12
trying to get it back David as you say to time stamp it to get it in front of people's perspectives to make it
01:04:17
important in a moment where everybody increasingly not just in the United States but in the UK in Europe are
01:04:24
looking internally and trying to figure out how to keep their economies in a reasonably functioning way and how to
01:04:31
make sure that their financial and other infrastructure keeps working so you're saying and that is not necessarily a
01:04:36
priority when rates are zero but when rates are four percent I mean just by the way if you guys saw what happened
01:04:41
today it was the competing of two narratives this week there was a financial Narrative of the UK having to
01:04:49
bail out their pension system right of all of a sudden the pensions being forced sellers of those four sellers now
01:04:56
you know uh spilling into the United States debt markets around Clo's and collateralized Loan obligations and junk
01:05:03
debt which then could theoretically spill as a contagion into other parts of the market that was narrative one
01:05:09
and and all of that by the way is a result of hiding inflation and the you know fed moving up rates and you know
01:05:15
other countries being forced to to attack inflation with higher rates and creating all these dislocations
01:05:21
narrative one versus narrative two which is hey all of a sudden we have to put the nuclear risk on the table and if you
01:05:28
actually saw the print that was spilled the disproportionate amount of the rhetoric actually focused on the former
01:05:34
narrative and not the latter and so I think that that's why the these folks are escalating the rhetoric in order to
01:05:43
kind of create an equality so that they get enough print they want that version of the outcome what you're saying is you
01:05:50
have the world saying we can't afford to have this conflict we are broke well not
01:05:56
too many chaotic issues the world is saying we are increasingly under enormous domestic pressure
01:06:02
and as a result we cannot spend on things abroad we can't afford this and then on the other side saying well we
01:06:09
need you to afford this so nuclear is going to happen there's going to be a nuclear and there's a small attention
01:06:15
there's a small strain of folks who would economically benefit yeah who are now ratcheting up their rhetoric so that
01:06:21
that second path is more and more on the table what do you think of this freeberg
01:06:24
this analysis that shamoth has these two polar these two uh groups vying for the attention and or budget of
01:06:34
the world the the military-industrial complex versus yeah uh citizens saying our
01:06:42
country can't afford this we need to focus inward not citizens the central banks
01:06:46
but I think the central banks influenced by citizens right like there's a whole system here we're talking about people
01:06:51
are you know watching their questions away they're watching jobs get cut if I was a
01:06:57
betting man I spent that I I would guess that the next half a trillion to a trillion dollars that is spent in
01:07:02
Western world economies will be to subsidize something that's broken internally inside of one of our
01:07:09
countries whether it's the UK pension system or whether it's the high-yield credit markets and it will not be the
01:07:15
finance military adventurism in Russia people um so there's an article today in the
01:07:22
Washington post about how the U.S government's Debt Service is going to be around 570 billion this year which is a
01:07:28
45 increase Biden's budget for 2023 is only 1.6 trillion so you're talking about something like over a third now of
01:07:37
the official budget is already going to Debt Service because it's not variable right it's a variable right exactly
01:07:42
because so much of it is is um it's not locked in long-term rates so because interest rates have gone up so
01:07:48
much The Debt Service gone up and interest rates are still going up and so you know druckmiller had those points
01:07:54
around how the debt services within a decade is going to eat up practically the whole federal budget so trimath is
01:08:00
right that we've never really had to choose between guns and butter before in the past it was just let's just do both
01:08:05
and we'll rack up more national debt I do think there will be more and more pressure to question this type of
01:08:12
spending and why we've already given Ukraine 80 billion dollars in handouts when we can't afford to basically pay
01:08:20
for you know major entitlements at home so I think there'll be more pressure now
01:08:25
I think I don't know if that pressure is going to come in time though to de-escalate this Ukraine it's more it's
01:08:30
not and that's what concerns me and just to just to cut to the chase on this I think where the rubber meets the road on
01:08:36
Ukraine is Crimea it's and why because the Russians have a major Naval Base there at sevastopol it's the home of the
01:08:44
Black Sea Fleet and they will never give that up they are willing to use nukes I
01:08:50
believe to basically protect that asset it's a vital interest of theirs hold on 80 of the population of Crimea they're
01:08:57
Russian and three quarters of them according to polling that was done by Gallup and by a German polling firm so
01:09:03
not Russian polls indicated that they see themselves as Russian and only part of Russia so if we supported
01:09:08
self-determination we'd be fine with Crimea being part of Russia but here's the rub Ukrainian nationalism demands
01:09:14
that every square inch of Crimea goes back to Ukraine and it is State Department policy right now that we will
01:09:21
never recognize Crimea as being Russian will never recognize the annexation which happened back in 2014. so
01:09:27
something's got to give here something's got to give either we have to sit down zielinski and say to him listen you're
01:09:34
not getting back from me yet we're going to make that part of a peace deal or we
01:09:38
are going to back the ukrainians in their military effort to retake Crimea with the result that I think is quite
01:09:44
likely that the Russians will be willing to use a tactical nuke to prevent their
01:09:49
total defeat so at some point we're gonna have to choose here which of these outcomes do you want do you want to
01:09:54
basically go for a negotiated settlement which means telling the ukrainians they
01:09:57
cannot have everything they want or do you really want to risk a nuclear war to take back Crimea which is Russian and
01:10:04
the people there see themselves as Russian so we need to make a choice here yeah so Elon put out a tweet for and got
01:10:11
Savage for it and he outlined sort of what you're saying here so do you think his plan he said redo
01:10:18
elections of annex regions under U.N supervision Russia leaves if that is the will of the people and then he says
01:10:24
Crimea formerly part of Russia as it's been since 1783 water supply to Crimea assured as you're saying Ukraine remains
01:10:30
neutral should the West Force Ukraine to accept these type of terms essentially elections and I don't know why Crimea
01:10:38
wouldn't be part of that election process do you think U.N supervised elections in those regions should occur
01:10:45
and we should force Solinski to do that so he who pays the pipe or calls the tune of course we need to have a point
01:10:51
of view on how this war should be resolved should we force him to do that listen it's not about Force they can
01:10:58
fight on and do whatever they want as long as they want hold on with our support
01:11:02
American weapons so you think he should do that weapons if he doesn't if zielinski wants our weapons and support
01:11:10
which appear to be infinite we should not give him a blank check guarantee the blank check is how is what started World
01:11:16
War One the German Kaiser gave Austria a blank check guarantee and it led to World War one that is how great Powers
01:11:22
get pulled into the wars of minor powers and we absolutely have to have a point of view on how we do not get pulled into
01:11:29
this and I think our one of our lines should be that we are not going to fund the ukrainians in retaking Crimea got it
01:11:37
so just to put a to clear this so we can move on to the next topic you're in support of removing or not giving
01:11:44
further weapon support to the Ukraine unless they negotiate this it's not going to come to that we need to have a
01:11:50
point of view on how you are in support of stopping our support if they don't sit down and negotiate a settlement here
01:11:56
that's what you would do America needs to have a point of view of what is in its own interests what is in our
01:12:01
interest is for this to get resolved diplomatically at some point through a negotiated settlement not for it to
01:12:07
escalate into a nuclear war that we could get pulled into the only way that's going to happen Okay is if Crimea
01:12:13
goes back to Russia I'm telling you they will be willing to pull out all the stops they could even use Tech nukes
01:12:19
before Crimea but can you answer the question though that I asked three times would you remove American support and
01:12:24
weapons if they don't accept that if Ukraine doesn't accept that would you be comfortable taking away our support in
01:12:28
wealth I don't think it's going to come to that but yes we should be willing to threaten that okay that's it I'm just
01:12:32
trying to get you to answer that one question hold on a second they are a client state of the U.S they do not call
01:12:38
the shots we're America we call the shots we're the big dog here all right that's the bottom line and you really
01:12:43
want to get pulled into a nuclear war but I do not I just wanted you to answer that one question
01:12:47
if they don't let's get real okay it's not about our future you know we're our American nationalist at least I am I'm
01:12:54
not a Ukrainian nationalist I support self-rule I think we accomplished something by preventing Kiev from
01:12:58
getting toppled but I want to support self-rule for the people of Korea it's time for a settlement in Saxon I think
01:13:05
the most important thing that we can all be thankful for which I think will prevent a lot of wars in the next 10 or
01:13:12
20 years is inflation and non-zero interest rates it's just going to be really tough like you know the UK cannot
01:13:19
do anything right now other than make sure that they have foreign currency reserves to back up the pound which they
01:13:25
don't really have that much they're going to need money to bail out their pension system whoever thought it was a
01:13:30
good idea to allow pensions to run levered risk was it's obviously insane could you imagine if it turned out that
01:13:37
the teacher's pensions and the firefighters pensions in America were running levered long I mean
01:13:43
this has to get resolved now I mean it's just another Breaking Point yeah it's clear you know what a pension is I know
01:13:49
yeah it's just no no I'm saying it I I'm saying don't use some fancy intellectual
01:13:55
argument I'm saying practically speaking the treasurer is not allowed to call Goldman Sachs and say I'm going to run
01:14:00
two turns of Leverage on this money that is not allowed to happen in the United States okay I get in some fancy way it
01:14:05
could be thought of as levered long with you know all kinds of indirection but that is not how the world works today
01:14:10
practically speaking it is how the UK Works a treasure in a UK pension system is allowed to call a an investment bank
01:14:18
and actually run levered that is insane okay so my point is when rates are non-zero all of that Jig Is Up
01:14:28
governments are forced to batten down the hatches and you know husband cash for God knows what will break in the
01:14:36
system and I think that that is and and as disruptive as that is it may actually be
01:14:42
the bulwark against War The Jig Is up folks uh I mean I think that's what we should take away from
01:14:50
this is we can't afford this and the United States is funding it we have to force a settlement here and it will be a
01:14:55
profile it may be the silver lining of inflation okay Andy jassy's uh had an all hands meeting Amazon is freezing
01:15:01
hiring for corporate roles in its retail business almost 90 VPS or higher level execs have left Amazon since 2021
01:15:08
earlier this week there was an all hands presentation and the slides were leaked
01:15:11
to Business Insider some of them constraints breed resourcefulness self-sufficiency and Innovation there
01:15:18
are no extra points for growing headcount budget size or fixed expense of slide instructed employees to
01:15:22
accomplish more with less sounds familiar sounds like something the U.S needs to do and foreign policy needs to
01:15:28
do Amazon leadership team urged employees to double down on frugality chassis also spoke in the meeting just a
01:15:35
couple of quotes and then I'll get your thoughts chimoff it's on a lot of people's minds and of course none of us
01:15:40
know for sure what's going to happen but there are a lot of signs that point to this being a difficult and rough economy
01:15:45
ahead of us and I don't know how long that'll last but I think it's one of the things that
01:15:49
we are thinking about and we've decided that we're going to be more streamlined in
01:15:54
how we expand in 2023 good companies that last a long period of time who are thinking about the long term always have
01:16:00
this push and pull trimath what do you read into this I'll say uh three quick things one is
01:16:06
that today Thursday October 13th we had an inflation print which was worse than expected and the markets are materially
01:16:15
higher right so you know strange why well I you know we talked about this a few weeks ago but you know my thought
01:16:22
then and same is it's the same that I think now is that we've effectively seen the near-term bottom and we're now
01:16:27
consolidating and so every opportunity people have to justify that most of the news is behind them they take and they
01:16:34
use that as a reason to buy okay so that's number one which is that we are sort of near the end the second however
01:16:41
is that if we do see another leg down there is really only one cohort of company that hasn't been really whacked
01:16:51
and I'll summarize it very quickly by saying it's Microsoft Amazon Apple and Google that's it even Facebook has now
01:16:58
been sort of put into the bucket of everybody else where you know we've been crushed 60 70 80 in those companies so
01:17:05
so so what does that mean well those four companies are now being identified for what they may be which in capitalism
01:17:14
is called over earning okay they are making more money than we think is appropriate this letter from Andy jassy
01:17:22
is his way of effectively telling his major shareholders that he is now moving the business to become more of a cash
01:17:29
cow business Tim Cook made this incredible decision in 2016 1718 that effectively did the same thing that's
01:17:37
when Buffett came in that's when he established a huge ownership in the stock that's when the stock absolutely
01:17:42
ripped because it moved into a different bucket in people's minds it became growth at a pretty reasonable price and
01:17:49
I think Andy is making the case that Amazon is going to become one of these GARP stocks growth at a reasonable price
01:17:55
he's going to generate a ton of cash flow he's going to keep expenses nominal he's going to return a ton of cash to
01:18:02
shareholders with BuyBacks that's the reading in between the lines of that letter I think it's a really profound
01:18:09
statement and a very smart move because you haven't seen that letter or a version of
01:18:15
that letter yet for Microsoft and you started to see hints of that letter from Sundar where he said you know it's it's
01:18:21
and he's not he's saber rattling he's not there yet he's in the appetizer part you know he's emus Bouche where he's
01:18:27
like oh you know guys you got to work harder hey guys let's create some fancy acronyms but sundar's got courage no no
01:18:34
but he's got courage he is going to rip the Band-Aid off too and so I think what
01:18:38
it means is these three and maybe these four companies are going to draw a hard Line in the Sand and say we are not over
01:18:45
earning do not abandon this stock that again will help put in the bottom in the stock market
01:18:51
what do you think free Burger you worked at this company and uh you know the the
01:18:55
the principals across the board the saber rattling will turn into saber swinging uh in Q4 q1 you think Google
01:19:04
Apple Cuts coming Amazon is affected in a different way because they operate this physical supply chain
01:19:14
business they're delivering Goods to people's homes that people are buying so they're they're uh they really have to
01:19:21
uh change their trajectory very quickly it was incredible you guys remember when
01:19:25
covet hit you tried to place an order on Amazon it was like three weeks to deliver because the infrastructure
01:19:30
wasn't there to do it so they actually were seeing more orders than their system had predicted and they did
01:19:36
massive build out they hired what a million people or something uh in their network uh to meet demand and then over
01:19:42
the next year uh earnings went through the roof uh their infrastructure and employee head count went through the
01:19:48
roof and now we're obviously coming back down the other side of a mountain and they're having to shift uh strategy and
01:19:53
and shift their operating model yet again there's a a broader set and that's because they're in the direct Commerce
01:20:00
business Microsoft Google and other kind of software companies some of which benefit from advertising
01:20:09
which is almost like a first derivative on the consumer Market or a first derivative on the spending of companies
01:20:15
that sell to Consumers have a little bit of a different calculus they're a much higher margin business 30 ebitda kind of
01:20:23
business with ebitda margin business with a very uh distinct kind of set of challenges on how advertising revenue is
01:20:30
going to be affected over the next couple of quarters and balancing that against their Cloud platform which is
01:20:36
sold to Enterprises and their media consumption platform which is generally like YouTube at Google's case which is
01:20:43
less affected so it's not as much of a direct calculus I will say what's happened over the past decade which
01:20:48
we're now seeing change is these companies have had extraordinary growth uh hiring people to no end there's
01:20:54
always been you know kind of this extended expense on Capital on human capital and that
01:21:01
expense on human capital has driven the average cost per employee through the roof and it's not just the salaries it's
01:21:08
the cost of the rsus it's the cost of the facilities and the free ice cream and the gyms and all the other stuff
01:21:13
that's gone on to compete that's now changing and so it really is creating a different model for operating that
01:21:19
hasn't existed for the last decade where everything has been you know how many more things can we throw in the kitchen
01:21:24
you know throw like the kitchen sink at this problem to get all the human capital here and I think that's really
01:21:29
you know what's what's going to kind of structurally change in the valley it's not as acute as what Amazon is dealing
01:21:34
with it does feel like um that is those are the last cities to falchum off they are the ones
01:21:42
they are the ones that take the index to 3200 if we're going to try to do it there's only one place to look you've
01:21:48
whacked everybody else everything is down you know 50 to 90 in some cases so and then finally you know and by the way
01:21:57
sorry just just at the end of life of last year a quarter of every s p dollar was crowded in those names a quarter so
01:22:03
you got to go there yeah I mean and also they're automatically bought right they're automatically bought by these
01:22:08
index funds and and so who's at the wheel saying we're not we're going to take the money out of them right who who
01:22:14
in their right mind is taking money out of apple Amazon and Microsoft where do you put it I guess is everybody's
01:22:20
question right trim off like if you take it out of there where do you put it well
01:22:23
no I think I think it's just that when when you have patterns of selling typically as I've seen it uh my
01:22:30
experience is that initially it's the algorithms that really start to push a market in a
01:22:35
direction then you have you know the more traditional fund complexes that's the hedge funds and the long onlys they
01:22:42
follow suit and then the last group tends to be retailed and it works in reverse the other way as
01:22:49
well and so you know obviously there's exceptions to all of these but as a general rule so if retail starts bailing
01:22:56
on Amazon well they are right now and apple yeah they are sellers now but okay now time to buy it right but again this
01:23:03
is this is where sort of organized Capital now is finding a bottom again like when you start to shake just think
01:23:09
about the psychology of like being delivered bad news after bad news you go through the cycles right there's denial
01:23:15
there's anger there's depression there's bargaining but then at some point there's acceptance and in that
01:23:21
acceptance phase you're like yeah you're right things are bad but when you see a market rally into a
01:23:27
print like this it's uh it's really really interesting psychological Turning Point as a proof point to what you're
01:23:33
saying sax uh chamoth and sax I want to get your comment on this Venture Capital
01:23:38
firms like Sequoia Excel and others that have now uh changed their status as you know
01:23:43
just private companies but also dabbling in public are buying public equities which basically means they see more
01:23:51
opportunity in public underpriced tech stocks growth stocks Etc then they do in late stage private companies correct and
01:24:01
you saw the Wall Street Journal story I'm assuming sex yeah I saw that what is what do you read what you read into that
01:24:06
is it overblown or is it indicative of something I think it's probably overblown because Sequoia created that
01:24:11
fund that is a hedge fund and an Andreessen Horowitz became a richer investment advisor so they could buy
01:24:16
public security so I look I don't think most Venture funds are all of a sudden investing in public markets we aren't
01:24:22
even allowed to do that as far as I know nor will we ever try to so I think probably it's exactly you have to give
01:24:28
up socks your VC exception exemption but you could do it you could do it yeah yeah I mean we wouldn't want to but it's
01:24:34
kind of the point but look I can't explain why the market did what it did today it could have liked him I said it
01:24:41
could have been some sort of algorithmic you know buying or selling um but I just think that the overall
01:24:48
news today was the economic news was just another really bad report I mean just look at these headlines from The
01:24:54
New York Times today okay I'm going to read you the headlines on a single sort of scrolling page here number one
01:25:01
inflation came in much faster than expected bad news for the FED takeaways from another painful inflation report
01:25:08
three disappointing inflation data keeps Democrats on defense out of midterm elections four food prices climb again
01:25:13
Weighing on household budgets five rent inflation remain tepid a troubling sign six used car prices aren't declining as
01:25:20
much as economists of the host slow down get give Freeburg a chance to take some
01:25:24
time take his Xanax for you gas prices fall slightly but overall energy costs are soon expected to rise and eight
01:25:31
retirees are getting an 8.7 Social Security costs living raise the biggest in decades I guess that one is sort of
01:25:36
positive but it's like literally negative headline efforts in the New York Times but can I reinterpret that
01:25:41
for you I think I think the way to think about it is this gives the fed the resolve it needs it's going to go by 75
01:25:48
it's probably going to go another 75. we're going to have rates by four to four fifty to five percent probably
01:25:54
within q1 which means if you're trying to figure out where the bottom is it's roughly now ish and so that's why you
01:26:00
see smart money David shaking this thing off um and starting to enter the market and
01:26:05
so again and the other version interpretation is when rates are four or five percent the cost of servicing
01:26:11
United States debt is so meaningful as a percentage of their budget the incremental spend that they would need
01:26:18
to make to enter a new war is too much I think I love this point I love this point where we're we're weaving all
01:26:24
these things together so so right so on the economics page of the New York Times disasters headline
01:26:32
after the disasters headline then you turned the foreign policy page you got Tom Friedman writing a column here
01:26:36
saying we are suddenly taking on China and Russia at the same time and Tom Freeman historically has been a huge
01:26:41
Hawk and he is even saying he's saying yeah pump on the brakes never fight Russia and China at the same time yeah
01:26:49
so he says we are an Uncharted water Waters I just hope these are not our new forever Wars It's Like Whoa so basically
01:26:56
look our economic base our economy is crumbling at home at the same time that we are doing unprecedented saber
01:27:02
rattling abroad this does not compute we we need to take a timeout my prediction
01:27:08
but my my prediction is that we will not enter a new war with rates flexing up as
01:27:14
aggressively as they are I love it I love weaving these two stories together I think it makes a lot of sense we
01:27:19
didn't have time for Alex Jones but we'll save that for another episode gentlemen I think it's our best episode
01:27:24
ever it's an honor and a privilege to spend this hour or so with you every week I love you like brothers
01:27:29
and it's been a great hundred episodes I look forward to a hundred more sacks if
01:27:34
you need a mental health break Dr friedberg's oh no he's got him doped up David David will be back next Friday I
01:27:39
just want to say hey David don't read your replies get off of that I just want to say how much
01:27:44
I love you guys and I'm really proud of what we've created and I'm really excited to get to the
01:27:49
next hundred and uh I'll see you guys tonight I'll break out the light so we're all you
01:27:54
want to keep going that's the news today I will say that Jake house moderation has been a lot better since he got
01:28:04
brigaded that is his way [Applause] I love you I love you Freeburg let's see if we can get sacks to do it it's been
01:28:15
100 episodes he hasn't said it yet but I love David Zacks David's are you coming
01:28:19
tonight taxi before you coming yeah I'll come I'll come you're coming oh wait wait wait wait uh let me check I'll get
01:28:23
back to you offline I'll see you tonight Rain Man Davidson I'm going home and I said we open source
01:29:03
it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] it's like this like sexual tension that
01:29:30
we just need to release somehow we need to get Mercies [Music]