00:00:00
we had dinner last week and sax and I got bombed last week we had dinner and we drank a
00:00:07
quadruple Kasa I've not seen jcal drink like that before I stopped in for a few minutes drinking I mean Kasa aul he tore
00:00:16
my house apart getting back in oh my God like a bear like a bear I went Brooklyn
00:00:22
sth he was like a bear he was like a drunk bear but I I spoke to the lady of the manor and I will be staying at Sax's
00:00:28
house next time so I will be able to refresh the ranch's soap and towels yeah I'm staying in your place I need you
00:00:36
know what I forgot to get towels when I was at shiman has got these amazing embroidered towels so I'll just hit
00:00:41
those up when I hit your place um it's really funny to go to jcal Ranch and there's going to be a big S on his
00:00:46
towels like wait why why is there an s on I got the on it I've got a robe on the back it
00:00:54
says Maga I took all the Maga robes from what is What is the stand for is grifter oh it's so funny
00:01:06
steals Ste he's got a bunch of towels that say c as well [Music] cheap let your winners
00:01:17
ride Rainman David and inste we open sources it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:25
with Love Queen of all right listen happy Halloween to everybody and we've got a great docket
00:01:35
for you today but I just upfront wanted to let people know that we will be having the all-in Holiday
00:01:43
Spectacular on December 7th at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco it's going to be amazing allin.com
00:01:50
events and next Tuesday that's right November 5th if you go to our YouTube at 7 p.m. Pacific Time 10 p.m. eastern time
00:02:01
we're going to do an election Night Live stream for the fans we're almost at 700,000 subscribers so subscribe to
00:02:08
comment and join us on our live stream on Tuesday night there'll be guests right there's going to be some fun
00:02:13
guests I think helth is still banned by chamath for life but I may bring him on and let give him a second chance chth is
00:02:20
that okay I bring him on for a second chance sure okay so we're gonna give helth a second chance we'll see be a
00:02:30
tight leash if he makes it about himself in s seconds or less 7 Seconds to Phil hel youth he's going to get kicked right
00:02:36
off the show okay holiday party did we announce that yeah so the holiday party go to allin.com events if you want to
00:02:43
come it's going to be great you guys aren't going to be happy but we are setting uh we are GNA spend a million
00:02:49
dollars on this party how do you spend a million dollars on a party dude did you
00:02:54
see the s belt last time for that sounds like a lot of founder that's a lot of yeah about 300,000 we'll probably lose
00:03:02
money on the party but it's going to be it's not meant to be call it a profit Center but it's just going to be super
00:03:07
fun be a great part you cannot put a price on a good time and you know if you're going to get that premium founder
00:03:14
mode did you always want to be a party promoter when you were like in high school and in college so when I was in
00:03:18
college I had a DJ set up I had like synthesizer setup which I plugged in and I did live electronic music with my DJ
00:03:26
set I'm going to drop the beat jth I'm GNA drop the beat here it comes a couple of uh my startups now are doing
00:03:37
something interesting Athena bought like a pack of tickets and they're doing like
00:03:41
a holiday party there with their top for our event for our event they basically bought a bundle of VIP tickets and
00:03:46
they're giving them to the top customers and their top employees to come that's cool and make it like their holiday
00:03:51
party in San Francisco with their customers so that's kind of neat smart move by them and so if you uh have a
00:03:57
startup and you want to bring your startup you can buy a a pack of tickets as it were that's actually a really good
00:04:02
idea a bunch of these small startups should just co-opt our holiday party as your holiday precisely yeah just buy 10
00:04:09
tickets and come hey freeberg is gonna go below a million bucks co-opted I'm hopeful today we're
00:04:15
gonna sign this DJ um which is everyone everyone knows the DJ and it is gonna be
00:04:20
pretty sick if we can get degenerate Gambler we know him we play bker with him whatever we pay him he's going to
00:04:26
lose twice as much at the poker game let's just let's call it what it is SX can you host Um poker at your house
00:04:32
after the party yeah no what a team player he built an entire poker building and he's used it like seven
00:04:46
times f David saaks is just the absolute best all right let's get to work you know what's winning as well is the US
00:04:53
GDP here we go it grew uh slightly slower than expected but the top line numbers are healthy looks like soft
00:05:00
Landing might be baked in we'll see on Wednesday the Department of Commerce reported that real GDP grew 2.88% in Q3
00:05:08
uh that means it's adjusted for inflation and um you know you can't look at these things in a vacuum you have to
00:05:15
look at the other Western countries and their GDP Japan 7 Australia 0.2 Germany .2 Canada 0.5 the world is not growing
00:05:24
us is growing briskly and um in terms of how the think about it 2 to 3% is uh sort of The Sweet Spot for mature
00:05:33
economies above 3% positive but can also signal overheating like we experienced during zurp and in 2021 under 2% yeah
00:05:43
stagnation uh US GDP was 30 basis points below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of
00:05:49
3.1% there's your chart if you missed it and um obviously inflation we talked about this last week is at 2.4% very
00:05:59
close to to the 2% Target unemployment 4.1% close to Historic lows 10year Treasury 4.3% and obviously stock market
00:06:08
at its all-time high again there's your S&P Dow and NASDAQ as we've talked about
00:06:14
over in over again shth the federal debt is the issue 35 trillion in debt we have
00:06:19
a trillion in annual interest payments on that debt and freeberg your pet peeve 23.5 million directly and millions more
00:06:28
indirectly as we know Federal government employees now at 3 million it's about 1%
00:06:32
of the country and uh state government employees 5.5 million local governments 15 million put it all together and we
00:06:40
got almost 25 million people working for our government what do you think the prescription here is freeberg as we uh
00:06:50
come up on Election Day and we look towards next year do you believe we can cut this crazy spending and what do you
00:06:56
think's going to happen to the economy will it overheat soft Landing you're running a company now so you have to
00:07:02
think about this obviously oh well I'll separate running a company because I think that's got to
00:07:08
be treated independently from macro you can't build your business run macro but 10year treasuries are sitting at just
00:07:13
around 4.3% I think what the market is telling us and remember that's off of a low right when the the rate Cuts were
00:07:21
happening if you'll remember in mid-september we got down to just around 3 and a half% the market is telling us
00:07:27
that with the sort of econom growth we're seeing low unemployment and you know call it modest
00:07:34
inflation this is not the time to be cutting rates and the market is saying we are expecting higher rates for longer
00:07:42
so I do think that that's one big kind of turnaround that's happened in the last 90 days which is really I think a
00:07:47
big surprise to a lot of folks is just how robust things are relative to where folks thought that they were about 90
00:07:53
days ago urging pleading and supposedly needing a big rate cut to get the economy moving again but I think at the
00:08:00
end of the day everyone's looking to the election as kind of the next big moment
00:08:04
in the economy both Trump and comma have made fiscal proposals that would be deeply expensive
00:08:13
if you assume the you know these these budgeting groups that go out and take their policy proposals and try and build
00:08:19
a model against them that they're both going to add trillions of dollars to the debt they're going to increase deficit
00:08:23
spending Etc but the reality is that neither of them are actually going to end up theoretically being able to ex
00:08:30
all those policies and there will be some degree difference end lot of talk about Doge the
00:08:39
department of government uh what is the last word efficiency efficiency efficiency that Elon might be
00:08:47
collaborating on where do you think the chances are he said there could be two trillion in in savings that could occur
00:08:54
what are the chances that any meaningful Cuts happen and we reverse the trend in
00:08:59
if Trump say he wins and and he and he creates that position I think the first question that'll inform how dramatic the
00:09:08
cuts are is whether we organize ourselves around an accurate sense of where the actual economy
00:09:16
is if you look at the print today it would actually tell you that things are pretty okay and that we are not sort of
00:09:26
near an unsustainable Turning Point however and Nick if you want to just throw up this chart if you back out the
00:09:36
percentage of government consumption that is included in GDP you start to see a very different picture which is that
00:09:44
over the last two and a half years all of the economic gains under the Biden Administration have largely been through
00:09:55
government consumption what that means is that private industry has been standing on the
00:10:03
sidelines somewhat and that actually maps to a lot of this intuition that I've had over the last
00:10:11
few months when I've said I think we're in a low-key recession because what I could never figure out is why I would
00:10:17
look at the earnings transcripts of a bunch of companies who would constantly talk about softening demand and by the
00:10:25
way this is across the board it wasn't just cpg companies but Dropbox as an example same sort of thing they just
00:10:32
laid off 20% of their staff and the and the memo was about weakening demand so this is a broad-based softening as far
00:10:39
as companies experience the economy but the high level number is positive which would make you think that everything is
00:10:46
fine but when you look at that chart and you back out the percentage of the positive news that the government is
00:10:53
responsible for what it means is the economy is flat and the economy isn't growing which means that roughly there
00:11:00
are a bunch of folks that are seeing contraction so I think that if you normalize on that
00:11:08
view of the world I think the cuts that Elon will affect will be meaningful and necessary if you uh pull up this chart
00:11:20
Nick of the uh Federal net outlays as a percentage of GDP I mean you're basically at an you're you're at a flat
00:11:27
stalling economy well if you look at this you know we we basically have had High Teens during our
00:11:34
lifetime Clinton era 70s and 80s and then uh it's gone up into the 20s now so that is definitely something the amount
00:11:43
of spending we're doing sorry just to again this is where you can get a little confused by data Jason this is net
00:11:49
outlays Y and that's different from total gross government spending which also includes QE so if you go back to
00:11:56
the other chart why is this one going down and the other one represents 85% of GDP it's because that one is a more
00:12:03
accurate sense of what the government is doing across all of its tentacles in the
00:12:08
United States economy it includes the money printer going bur which the net outlays chart doesn't
00:12:14
include so just to be clear about what's happening 85% of this quarter's GDP was
00:12:19
induced by the government if you sub if you sub it out so take 2.8% and multiply
00:12:25
it by 0.15 that is the true growth X the United States government that exists in
00:12:31
the United States economy today saxs your thoughts here on the GDP obviously looks pretty good for Biden Harris to
00:12:40
have all these stats going in their favor but there is the caveat obviously about the government spending in there
00:12:48
yeah no I think that's right I mean I I think that for Harris and the election it's probably a little too late for this
00:12:55
GDP report to be helpful if you go back all the way to 1992 where the whole election hinged on the economy remember
00:13:04
that was Bill Clinton running against George HW Bush and Clinton's message was it's the economy stupid Y and um
00:13:11
Carville right came up with that Carville came up with it and and Clinton beat Bush because we had a recession in
00:13:18
I think 91 but by 92 it was over already and in the final week of the campaign Bush tried to tout a similarly
00:13:28
positive GDP report that showed 2.7% growth that report would later be revised up to
00:13:35
3.9% growth so the recession was definitely over and the economy is growing again and nonetheless Bush lost
00:13:42
because voters impressions of the economy had already formed and solidified by the final week of the
00:13:50
campaign so I think it's probably too late here for the GDP numbers to have a big impact on the election I think the
00:13:57
other thing is that voters impression of this economy isn't based so much on the
00:14:04
GDP numbers it's really based on their perception of inflation over the last four years and there's no question that
00:14:11
cost of living has increased a lot over the last four years and voters are really feeling that and that I think is
00:14:17
is playing into their perceptions of the economy and I don't think that Harris has a great answer for that so so I
00:14:25
think the the bottom line here is I don't think this report going have a big impact on on the election in terms of
00:14:32
where the economy is going the the thing that I would come back to is interest rates and this is the thing that
00:14:38
freeberg was talking about which is even though the FED has cut rates by 50 basis
00:14:44
points the long-term rates the 10-year treasury has not gone down in fact it's gone up slightly you know it's gone up
00:14:51
to call it 4.3% and so we have this real issue where as the FED is cutting short rates
00:14:58
long r rates are not going down and I think that is because of the government deficit and the government debt and the
00:15:04
fact that there's so much debt that needs to be serviced by the bondet market for treasuries just the the
00:15:12
buyers are all leaving the market for treasuries the Chinese we talked about this last week have been selling down
00:15:16
their treasury position there just aren't buyers anymore which is and I think this could this could ultimately
00:15:22
have a very detrimental effect on the economy you already saw that I think uh this hasn't been widely reported but I
00:15:29
think it should be a major piece of news which is the prime rate hit 8% today so
00:15:36
it now it had a seven handle on it before and now has an eight handle on it well this matters a lot if you want to
00:15:42
buy a house and get a mortgage it's much more expensive then you got to think about all the people
00:15:49
who already have debt doesn't this look recessionary totally because a few years
00:15:54
ago you could get a a home loan at a 3 to 4% interest rate you know and amortize that now your debt service
00:16:03
costs can to be twice as high so you just can't buy as much house it's a very bad place if the economy is in the
00:16:10
toilet but we can't even talk about it because there is no structural way to get an accurate read because the
00:16:17
government just perverts the effect it has in the economy like have yeah Distortion fine
00:16:26
you you cannot have a nonprofit entity representing the plurality of the economic activity of a country and
00:16:35
expect the capital markets to function properly at some point the capital markets will basically throw their hands
00:16:41
up in the air and puke it all out and say no and I think that you're starting to see a little bit of these fissures so
00:16:48
I think we're going to have to clean up our balance sheet pretty aggressively here yeah and if you look at the
00:16:53
importance of that rate that rate drives the value of bonds as the current market
00:16:59
rate for treasuries or for the prime rate climbs the value of a existing bond that pays interest at a lower rate goes
00:17:08
down because you have to pay a lower basis in order to get back to the new high rate that the market is telling you
00:17:15
so there are several trillion dollars and we can pull up the the graph here Nick of loans and bonds that are sitting
00:17:21
on the balance sheets of many commercial banks in the United States that are now
00:17:26
so significantly underwater where the value is now below the book that they paid for those loans or that
00:17:33
they issued them at that those Banks now have unrealized losses and I think that
00:17:39
this number is one of the other kind of facts you see a few articles come out here and there about this but the number
00:17:44
as the rates go up the number of unrealized losses but the dollar value the unrealized losses at Banks balance
00:17:49
sheets in the United States has climbed so considerably that it represents a real crisis in fact the unrealized
00:17:55
losses on banks balance sheets today is higher than it was 8 it's trillions it's
00:18:00
trillions Buffett warned BFA public he's been selling off he sold off right B well he warned BFA publicly
00:18:08
although a bit obliquely last year during his annual conference and it was very clear it's like listen this is an
00:18:18
opportunity for folks to just Mark to Market these Securities properly and or sell them and get them off the books I
00:18:24
don't think B OFA acted quickly enough and so what did Buffett do he just basically started dumping and he's
00:18:30
almost completely out of B BFA if not completely out altogether so there's a lot of talk a crisis of
00:18:37
brewing there's a lot of talk in fin twt if you go into sort of like the the Deep
00:18:42
far-reaching bowels of of the of the Fint community on X that there is a huge credit crisis looming amongst some of
00:18:49
these large Charter holding Banks because of this exact issue and the relation between the fed and the prime is
00:18:58
typically 3% so the FED Cuts rates and then the banks put 3% on top of it when they give people creditworthy people
00:19:06
mortgages and credit cards so as the FED Cuts this should come down but if it went up what explains that I'm curious
00:19:14
if anybody knows well the FED sets short rates it sets the the FED funds rate which is the the rate of overnight
00:19:21
lending between Banks but it does not set the 10year treasury for example the long-term the market set Market
00:19:29
and the market now requires a higher rate of interest in order to accept you know the risk of investing in those
00:19:36
bonds or it's not really since it's a US Treasury it's not really risk it's more
00:19:41
about the time value of money and their expectations of inflation how much that money is going to be worth in the future
00:19:49
so I think what we're seeing is that the FED can cut short-term rates but it hasn't had the impact on long-term rates
00:19:56
that everyone was expecting I think everyone was expecting that we had this sort of um burst in
00:20:01
inflation the famous 9% inflation rate I think people were expecting that that would work its way through the system
00:20:07
and that we'd get long-term rates back to where they were but that's not happening and it's not happening for the
00:20:13
reason we're saying which is there's just too much debt out there so now think about the impact on the real
00:20:18
economy let's say that you're a home buyer and you got like a five-year interest only arm type mortgage for your
00:20:27
house Tick Tock yeah so now you know you probably got that in the 3 to 4% range if you have to refinance it this year at
00:20:35
8% your monthly payment's going to double that has a real impact on people's wealth and on their spending
00:20:43
power maybe they can't even support a payment like that now go over to the commercial side and it's it's very
00:20:50
similar there's a lot of commercial real estate out there you know buildings and
00:20:54
so on where they've got debt on it you can't get 30-year mortgages and Commercial the typical commercial loan
00:21:01
is 5 to seven years okay we're now coming up I think in the next few years on a lot of that that debt will need to
00:21:09
roll it'll need to be refinanced if it gets refinanced at twice the interest cost roughly a lot of those buildings
00:21:18
may be underwater I mean they may not be you know in there may be no equity value
00:21:23
and a lot of people know this now but they don't really have to mark those positions to mark it if they did their
00:21:29
zero but they're kind of all on borrow time right now hoping that rates will go back down and what we're seeing is that
00:21:37
the long rates are not going back down it's a pretty scary proposition and then of course you know a lot of the the debt
00:21:42
on those buildings it's all owned by the commercial banks that you're talking about the regional Banks so they're
00:21:47
sitting on a lot of bad debt that they haven't had to Mark to Market and they're just kind of hoping that this
00:21:53
problem will get sorted out before you know before there's a default and by the way as these numbers climb
00:22:01
the cost to borrow for the federal government climbs so the new bonds we have to reissue a good percent I think
00:22:07
nearly $10 trillion doll I think of our debt has to be reissued in the next year
00:22:11
that's going to get reissued now at this higher rate and that higher rate means that the annual expense just to pay the
00:22:17
interest on the existing debt is now climbing at a faster rate and that means you've got to issue more debt to pay for
00:22:24
your interest on your current debt it's quite paradoxical that the FED sets that
00:22:28
rate right well this this becomes the compounding problem when your G your debt to GDP reaches a certain level and
00:22:36
you don't reduce federal spending fast enough it becomes a compounding problem you cannot get away from and this has
00:22:42
been the beginning of the cataclysmic economic collapse of every great Empire in the last 500 years I know I've said
00:22:48
this you guys can joke about it all day long but this is how it starts is it starts at a point where you're at
00:22:52
rithmetic not able to get out of your debt spiral and uh the markets are telling us that if the US doesn't
00:22:58
drastic action in reducing it spending and reducing the deficit levels so that we can actually address the payment
00:23:04
obligations on the outstanding debt that we've already issued the US dollar is going to have a real problem and the
00:23:10
creditworthiness of the United States is challenged that's what the market says but I know that there's other issues
00:23:15
with the fact that there's no other better place to put money today and there's not a lot of other you know
00:23:19
great economies out there and so on and so forth but the stability of the United
00:23:23
States the hegemony of the United States and the dollar is challenged in part by
00:23:27
the fact that you've got this bricks or gation out there now that has greater GDP and aggregate than the US and so
00:23:32
there may be an alternative that emerges in the next couple years and maybe everyone's kind of putting their assets
00:23:37
away in in gold and and other and Bitcoin and other stuff while they're waiting for the transition to find
00:23:42
another place to buy we'll see all right well but what it what it implies if if rates have roughly doubled let's say in
00:23:50
the last few years and they're going to stay at that level they're not going back down it implies there's going to be
00:23:56
a big deleveraging right because you know you can't support those interest payments I mean let's say that
00:24:02
you own a building right and now all well tax that's it's actually deleveraging or inflation because the
00:24:10
alternative is the fed monetizes the debt they start buying all the bonds which means you're pumping more US
00:24:14
Dollars into the market and that means that the cost of everything goes through the roof so you have this effect of
00:24:19
economic inflation which is the way that you inflate away the debt problem assuming people still want to use your
00:24:25
currency yeah well I mean that's at the government level I mean I was talking about the the private sector I mean just
00:24:30
think about it at the level of like an individual building you've got a loan on it now you need to refinance the loan
00:24:35
interest rates are twice as high that let's say that that doesn't the building no longer produces operating income at
00:24:41
that level of debt so you have to pay down some of your debt it's called an equity in refinancing where you're not
00:24:48
pulling money out you're putting money in you have to deleverage in order to make your sort of income statement work
00:24:53
right it's just too much debt at at that new level of interest rates so if rates
00:24:58
stay high there's no choice but for many people to delever whether it's on the commercial side or the or or on the
00:25:06
consumer side you just can't afford as much debt right at that higher interest rate so think about the impact that has
00:25:13
on the economy when everyone has to delever that's a very negative effect and then of course you like you're
00:25:20
saying at the government level you have to figure out what to do about that because our interest payments on the
00:25:25
debt are already what 20 to 25% of federal revenue yeah it's about trillion five
00:25:32
trillion so you already see there where there's less money to spend on current programs because you're paying for
00:25:39
interest on the debt so what do you do about that so I I think that the next president's going to face a pretty
00:25:45
wicked set of problems in tradeoffs here even though the GDP numbers are fine they're good I still think there's like
00:25:51
a wicked set of problems related to government debt and interest rates yeah and there's no way to really skin this
00:25:58
without some some I think there yeah there there I think the only path is you have to cut spending which is
00:26:05
recessionary government spending which is recessionary so you're going to trigger an economic recession you're
00:26:10
going to have to have some amount of inflation and you're going to have to have a spike in unemployment and if you
00:26:14
don't do the first two things you're gonna have a lot more inflation which is really hard to get out of so well I I
00:26:20
agree agree we have doesn't seem to be a win a win win scenario here there's there's no yeah I agree we have to cut
00:26:26
government spending I don't I personally don't think it's recessionary I think it
00:26:28
helps the private sector When government gets cut right uh however because Sachs
00:26:33
that means seor gets to service that function the government won't be consuming all these resources that the
00:26:40
private sector could use better it also won't have as many government bureaucrats acting as break pedals on
00:26:46
the private sector so I tend to think that the government the the real economy will perform better with a smaller
00:26:52
government however I I think the reason why it won't happen is because it's politically difficult it's extremely
00:26:59
difficult to cut spending politically right right well I mean as we saw this cycle every single proposal seemed to be
00:27:07
a payoff to different constituencies it was like right CAU in the budget somehow
00:27:13
right somebody somebody fought for every single line item in the budget some special interest and they're going to
00:27:19
fight like hell to keep their appropriation it's not even special interest it's the representatives in
00:27:25
Congress doing their job which is to fight for their con getting their fair share or their Fair shake at the money
00:27:31
that's being spent and that's just the way that the legislative branch has evolved over time if someone's getting
00:27:37
something in order for me to vote for it I want to get something too and so the whole thing over time becomes
00:27:42
functionally inflationary right I think that whole shell game might just be over now
00:27:47
because there's no more money left I mean it's all been spent in fact you know what I mean so like all the federal
00:27:54
government probably will end up doing in the near future is entitlements and defense that's it because those are the
00:28:02
core core functions of the federal government I think everything else that's that's sort of quote unquote
00:28:07
discretionary is probably GNA get cut because there's no more money left tragedy of the commons folks uh
00:28:13
everybody acting in their self-interest and yeah not a lot of coordination or ability to win office if you actually do
00:28:21
what's in everybody's Collective best interest and take the medicine moving on through the docket Tech earnings this
00:28:27
week Google had a great quarter let's go over that a bit here you're all mamada freeberg they beat Top Line and bottom
00:28:35
line stock popped 5% looks like cloud and YouTube are the story here total revenue let this sink in
00:28:43
88.3 billion up 15% year-over-year search was uh 49 billion of that and uh their operating income is now up 34%
00:28:54
year-over-year I think the CFO is getting some work done there 28 .5 billion and net income was
00:29:01
26.3 billion interestingly people are expecting even larger profits they got a new CFO over there who said they could
00:29:10
push a little further on cost cutting and she said the company will use AI to cut costs by streamlining workflows and
00:29:17
managing headcount physical footprint I think that means more layoffs are coming
00:29:22
to Big Tech YouTube had a tremendous quarter add Revenue 8.9 billion jamath that's up 12% % but Sundar said
00:29:30
something interesting he said YouTube surpassed 50 billion in total revenue over the past year and so if you do a
00:29:37
little uh B math that's the back of the envelope math for those of you at home who haven't heard that acronym
00:29:45
Google doesn't report YouTube's not add Revenue but we know YouTube had 35 billion in add Revenue over the last
00:29:51
year that means they're doing about 15 billion in premium paid products YouTube TV NFL Sunday Ticket YouTube premium
00:29:59
which is the greatest product ever takes ads out of YouTube and makes it usable so 7030 split Cloud had a blowout
00:30:07
quarter Google Cloud I see that all the time now 11.4 billion in revenue on 35% annual growth with 1.9 billion in
00:30:17
operating profit I mean it's printing money there are seven quasi monopolies in the
00:30:23
world they're all American and if we allow them to flourish will be good if we hamper them a little bit and allow
00:30:34
other companies to pick up the whites space will be great over to you okay there's your that's called analysis
00:30:43
Cham and if we break them up I think that you'll have a lot more the the sum is greater than the parts I
00:30:51
mean clearly YouTube would be one of the great companies right now you take the perspective of
00:30:58
if you own stock in any of these companies the some of the parts analysis would tell you that the breakup value is
00:31:05
greater than the way that these companies get discounted you can look at the multiples that they trade at and you
00:31:12
can see that so if you're a shareholder of the company you actually silently probably want them broken up because
00:31:18
you'll get individual shares that are each will be worth more separately if you are a shareholder of the United
00:31:24
States economy you also probably want them broken up because then you'll just have many more companies creating
00:31:30
economic value which then drives the tax roles which benefit the United States balance sheet it's hard to see unless
00:31:39
you're an employee of the company or you derive a lot of ego from the existence of a company
00:31:47
the way it is that you would need it to stay where how it is well let me challenge your point on two fronts in
00:31:53
Google's case both YouTube and gcp required many many many many billions of dollars of investment over many years
00:32:01
same with weo by the way at this point that took a long time and a lot of capital to get the payback on if those
00:32:08
were Standalone businesses and they didn't have the profits being derived from search and ads over many years they
00:32:15
would not have been able to build those incredible businesses so if you do break
00:32:19
these businesses up what you do lose is the ability for an American Juggernaut to be able just like Amazon did with AWS
00:32:26
and apple did and we can go through the list to build these new businesses that require the cash flows from the old
00:32:33
businesses as separate companies it becomes much harder to make that degree of an investment that that angle that
00:32:39
angle of belly aching is not going to pass muster because it's all about litigating the past and you got to play
00:32:46
the ball where it lies where it lies is this business is in a position where you
00:32:50
can probably demarcate four or five logical business units again I'm not saying it should Happ but it will happen
00:32:57
and and the the argument of but the past is not going to work no no no I'm not yeah I'm not disagreeing with your point
00:33:02
about like hey if these things broke up people would make money I'm just I'm just trying to understand this point
00:33:07
about American dynamism or whatever you want to call it that these companies are
00:33:11
all in America they've all been successful because they've been led by amazing Founders they've reinvested so
00:33:16
much of the profit they've generated back into building insane new businesses that took a lot of capital and a lot of
00:33:22
time and eventually they paid off and they became the next generation of ginormous new businesses that would not
00:33:28
have possibly existed if not for the will and the cash flows coming from those old businesses you also have a
00:33:34
companion economy in the capital markets where there's hundreds of billions of dollars that go and fill in the gaps and
00:33:39
I think the reality is the people in the capital markets are not stupid and if these big companies hadn't spent
00:33:45
hundreds of billions of dollars the capital markets would have so I don't gole if Google let's just play a
00:33:51
scenario and I'm I'm not trying to relitigate the past but if Google did not own YouTube what do you think would
00:33:56
have happened you would have gotten funded and it would have been fine it would have raised the billions buil the
00:34:02
because you do you remember YouTube had a real infastructure serious lawsuit I think they would have shut down the
00:34:07
reason is because people are smart enough to understand when then there's the potential to make money okay and the
00:34:16
free markets do a really good job of highlighting where that's possible again there is no point Rel
00:34:22
litigating this but I think yeah gcp AWS get funded with billion yeah I guess that's what open is
00:34:30
right why does why does cor weave get funded today how is cor weave allowed to even exist why doesn't it all go because
00:34:37
investors are smart they see that there's an economic rationale for there being multiple players and then there's
00:34:43
a smart founding team that creates a justification that gets it going so the era of the monopolies Monopoly on
00:34:52
building new monopolies is over I don't think it's I don't think it's ever existed but I think the point
00:34:58
is that big businesses are there to eventually grow at GDP so that they can be disrupted by small companies that's
00:35:06
what you want because if you had the same seven or eight companies then you could make the argument that we should
00:35:11
have stopped at the East West India company and everything would have been great I mean it is what we did with the
00:35:17
railroads it's what we did with the AT&T it's what we did with standard oil like
00:35:22
when when these when these monopolies were built in the US they were all broken up and but hold on it's not
00:35:26
necessarily what we did it's the conditions that enabled other people to then go fill the gaps and I think that
00:35:32
that's economic boundary conditions you know Saks had this great tweet this past
00:35:36
week and I almost quote tweeted it but I thought I don't want to create a lot more noise where there doesn't need to
00:35:43
be Zach is paying attention now but he had this tweet about taking back the licenses for the main broadcast channels
00:35:51
and I thought that was an excellent thing and I quote tweeted something where I was like yeah we should buy that
00:35:57
that for all in and I said it half jokingly but I didn't because I think that if those licenses were up for grabs
00:36:05
what would happen is a bunch of private Equity people would get behind Rogan a bunch of private Equity people would get
00:36:11
behind us and we would all bid and the outcome would be better so the point is that these small structural changes and
00:36:19
I know that it may seem large to break up Google it's not it's a small thing in the grand course of American businesses
00:36:27
it's not going to really matter that much would be good generally through the lens of the individual shareholder and
00:36:35
through the lens of the shareholder of the United States that's it sax can you tell us about the broadcast licensing
00:36:41
comment that you made I thought it was actually pretty good too yeah there's a history to this I mean originally in the
00:36:46
US we had three major broadcast networks ABC CBS MBC and they were given licenses
00:36:54
of public Spectrum from the FCC and those licenses were free but in exchange for them the major broadcast networks
00:37:01
had these various requirements to serve the public interest to be fair this was pre pre- cable and this was broadcast
00:37:09
this goes back like a hundred years and just to be it's I think it's important to be clear because I I I don't think
00:37:14
everyone understands that back in the day all the TV networks only broadcast over the air so they needed radio
00:37:21
spectrum allocated to them to to do that which was a you know 100-year old kind of that's a 100-year Old Situation
00:37:27
doesn't exist anymore sorry go yeah it was the only way to get information broadcast on TV was through this this
00:37:35
public spectrum and so it kind of made sense in a world in which there were only three
00:37:41
networks because that was the only way to get information to have these fairness requirements and public
00:37:48
interest requirements and so it was heavily regulated well now it's a century later and there's so many ways
00:37:54
to get information you've got cable obviously meant that we went from three or four networks to hundreds and then of
00:38:04
course you've got the internet and you've got streaming so there's now an infinite number of ways to get
00:38:10
information in real time including video and and that sort of thing you've also got social networks
00:38:17
you've got X and all the rest so there's no shelf space limit anymore there's no scarcity
00:38:24
and so therefore tying up this very valuable Spectrum by giving it for free to the to the broadcast networks just
00:38:32
doesn't really make sense in the same way and what we should do is just auction off the Spectrum use the money
00:38:40
to pay down the national debt and and in that way it'll go to its most highly valued use the market will figure out
00:38:48
what that use is if the broadcast networks are the most highly valued way to use this spectrum then they'll win
00:38:55
the auction but I suspect they won't exactly they did this auction in 2016 right for 15 years they've been
00:39:01
gradually auctioning off more Spectrum but we're talking about here this is like the most Choice valuable part of of
00:39:09
public Spectrum so for example one of the reasons why the spectrum is valuable is because
00:39:17
it can easily go through walls right like you can watch your TV inside your house and yeah this broadcast spectrum
00:39:23
is good at getting through those walls imagine the types of GPS apps you could enable with that kind of precision right
00:39:31
so there's many other ways in theory that this spectrum could be used and you would be able to unleash I think a lot
00:39:38
of innovation in Next Generation Wireless apps if the Spectrum were available I don't think the public would
00:39:45
lose anything because ABC CBS NBC first of all I mean these networks are basically a commodity now there's so
00:39:52
many other ways to getting used and they'll still be available through the internet and through cable so you're
00:39:57
saying to speed up these auctions because they do occur every 15 years or something to
00:40:03
that I think what happens is that the um the licenses are actually granted to local stations like your you know your
00:40:11
local ABC whatever yeah and then collectively they have a Lobby called the NAB or National
00:40:20
Association of broadcasters and this is why they have so much power is you've got all these local networks let's call
00:40:26
three or four of them in every geography and they all come together as part of this Lobby and so this is why nothing
00:40:32
ever changes but does this model still make sense no I mean it's completely obsolete but those local networks will
00:40:39
all go crazy if they lose their free Spectrum well they pay for it they don't they don't pay for it now they get a a
00:40:46
free license from the FCC in exchange for the fairness requirement and these other requirements I think that they pay
00:40:54
billions of dollars for these and like hundreds no every six years or so they come back
00:41:00
up and they get renewed by the FCC H I was just talking about the Spectrum auctions I'm looking at it right now
00:41:06
that's different yeah okay all right interesting no look the the FCC has auction Spectrum before but
00:41:13
not the spectrum that the broadcast networks are sitting on which is some of the most valuable Spectrum got it and
00:41:20
the only reason why it's being used this way is because of Legacy because this is
00:41:25
how it worked 100 years ago well and then this parallels into I think some of the research that's going on right now
00:41:32
around Legacy Media and Trust in Media bunch of reports have been coming out about this it's not shocking to anybody
00:41:39
who listens to this podcast but confidence in institutions is tracked by a number of different organizations
00:41:46
Gallup being one of them and if we look at how Americans feel and Trust has generally been going down in
00:41:55
everything the military it's also being it's also being tracked in the wapo upad section yeah exactly
00:42:03
are you g pull that up jcal do you have that or no uh we'll talk about that yeah
00:42:08
but here if you take a look at from 2021 2022 and into 2023 television news went from 16 down
00:42:17
to 11 and back up to 14 but is amongst the lowest in terms of trust in and 40% of Americans have no Trust in
00:42:30
Media at all according to this Galla poll here's uh how it breaks down by party Republican independent and
00:42:38
Democrats confidence by the Democrats 58% Independence 29% Republicans 11% in mass media your thoughts fredberg
00:42:50
as we look at just trust in general in institutions this transitionary period we in and specifically the
00:42:58
media I do think we've talked about this a number of times in the past so without
00:43:03
rehashing too much I think that many of the institutions that have offered media
00:43:09
have had to move away from providing data and information because data and information has commoditized it's
00:43:15
available broadly through the internet and other places so the actual Gathering of information is now democratized you
00:43:22
know agencies put their data on their website stock stock markets are published on the internet so the
00:43:26
internet has democratized access to information so the media companies that have historically been Arbiters of
00:43:32
information have had to become effectively content businesses they've had to provide more than just
00:43:39
information and what has happened is a iterative feedback system whereby the more kind of angry they can make someone
00:43:49
the more upset they can make someone the the more emotive they can make a reader
00:43:53
or a viewer or a listener the more clicks they the more the kind of lyic system triggers that consumer to come
00:44:01
back and consume some more of their media and so the iterative development cycle is that things look like they're
00:44:06
one side versus another side in nearly every context in every piece of media everyone is opinionated and making a
00:44:13
position point from a side from a perceived side that they are representing because it is a motive to
00:44:19
the readers and the readers come back and they align with that side and they want to have more of that because it
00:44:23
incites their limic system that's what happened and as as a result when people look at it and assume that it's what it
00:44:29
used to be which is objective truth fact finding information gathering and it is
00:44:33
not that they're like well this isn't even news anymore and the truth is it's not because information is democratized
00:44:40
it's available to you anywhere and everywhere you want it you can get it through citizen journalism via blogs via
00:44:46
podcasts via Twitter via many other places and so the the Legacy Media companies have effectively become
00:44:52
emotive content companies in order to drive clicks Drive views sell ads that's really all this whole story is and I
00:44:59
don't think that that's going to shift I don't think that Jeff bezos's attempt to
00:45:02
try and return wapo back to being a fact-f finding organization is going to be successful I think all the consumers
00:45:08
that read wo today they love the one-sided nature they love the bias that they read it makes them feel good I
00:45:15
think that the people that work there love the bias they love writing those opinion pieces it makes them feel good I
00:45:20
don't think anyone actually wants boring news anymore because you know what they
00:45:23
can go to a website from the government itself or from a company itself and just
00:45:27
read the information and frankly if they want to get unbiased honest factual information there's a hundred other
00:45:33
sources well and then here the commentary the comment yeah the commentary about off the cuff Etc you
00:45:39
know what that is that's called authentic conversation that is how people speak when we all get together we
00:45:45
are not journalists we are not necessarily well-versed let's be honest we mess things up a lot we say off the
00:45:51
cuff comments that are wrong very often but that's just how people speak and it feels authentic and when we do have
00:45:57
signal I think that listeners and viewers are smart enough to separate that signal from noise and they are
00:46:02
going to make their own decisions about what they find to be truth and factual and what they're going to use to make
00:46:08
decisions in their life and that's I think how people want to consume information now it's not being told what
00:46:13
the truth is by some fake Authority and here is a clip from the podcast last year podcast could play a huge role just
00:46:21
like in 2016 social media broke through and played a huge role I think in 2024 I
00:46:27
think that podcast could break through the way that unorthodox candidates get their message out could
00:46:33
be the way all candidates get their message out we're moving from traditional media defining these
00:46:39
candidates to direct to Consumer direct through Twitter SLX direct through podcasts this podcast included what
00:46:47
we're witnessing right now is the transition from traditional media and the establishment defining who the great
00:46:53
candidates are to the public and the people on podcast in social media who are the tip of the spear and the
00:46:59
Vanguard they're going to pick the winners I love you both you guys totally nailed it look at that sax your thoughts
00:47:06
on this sort of transition interestingly as we know Rogan had Trump on over 40 million views now I think
00:47:13
they're up to 100 million views now for that Rogan Trump interview oh including the fact that you literally could not
00:47:19
find it if you search for it in Google or YouTube it's quite amaz well we'll get to that in a second yeah that's an
00:47:24
interesting one I got to take on that but what do you take from Rogan getting let's say many more views
00:47:32
than the last two presidential debates Trump Harris 67 million viewers Trump Biden 51 million viewers I think maybe
00:47:40
Rogan combined with his two episodes will get more than the first two debates yeah look I think this is the first
00:47:49
podcast election where you can make the argument that podcasts will decide the election and there's a couple of reasons
00:47:56
for that one is podcasts have gotten big enough that there's enough audience that
00:48:00
they just have the reach now to play a big role second the format is is highly informative to viewers you get to see a
00:48:09
candidate expound in long form being asked questions and having to go for potentially hours at a time I mean Trump
00:48:17
went for three hours with Rogan impress and it's very hard to hide who you are when you're going for that period of
00:48:24
time in an unscripted environment I would argue even the hour that Trump spent with us demonstrated that he knew
00:48:32
a lot more about policy issues than people were giving him credit for and it's and it also showed his personality
00:48:38
was a lot different than the media had portrayed him so I think that podcasts have been a great Advantage for Trump
00:48:45
he's been willing to do them and I think he does them quite well I think it's particularly helpful to him in a context
00:48:52
where the Legacy Media has been trying to portray him as a very extreme figure as as literally a Nazi or literally The
00:49:01
Reincarnation of Adolf Hitler when the media is is telling the audience that you're that and then you can go on Rogan
00:49:07
for three hours and show that you're a normal funny guy who actually knows a lot about policy it's just such a
00:49:13
different impression than what the media is trying to portray that it's been incredibly I think useful and
00:49:20
advantageous for Trump by the same token KLA Harris has not been willing to do Rogen at least not on Rogan's terms
00:49:27
apparently she was willing to sit down for one hour with him but but not in Austin according but not in Austin but
00:49:34
Rogan said is no we have to sit down in our studio for three hours so far she hasn't been willing to do that I think
00:49:41
that speaks volumes in and of itself is that she hasn't been willing to subject herself to the same sort of you could
00:49:48
call it interrogation or really just longform conversation that Trump has been willing to but in any event just I
00:49:55
think my bottom line on this is that I think Trump's biggest challenge in this election is just to get people
00:50:02
comfortable with the idea of a second Trump term to get people comfortable with him and I think that him going on
00:50:10
all these podcasts including ours including I thought that Andrew Schulz Swan was really good too has helped him
00:50:16
I think just get people comfortable with the idea of of trump which I think was just his biggest obstacle in this
00:50:21
election because people definitely want to change and they're not happy with Biden Harris you know the one thing I
00:50:26
say is before you go on Rogan there's a sense of anxiety that I had which was do
00:50:36
I have enough interesting things to say for three hours that was really at the top of my mind I think Jason I talked to
00:50:42
you right before yeah I went on and and that was a big thing for me and then you go and you get in the
00:50:50
seat and he's incredible in the way that he kind of like moves the conversation along and then you end up you're like oh
00:50:57
it's already been 3 hours that's his superpow the reason that she should find a way to go to Austin and do it is
00:51:07
because he has the ability to allow you to be your true self over a long period of time and I think again just going
00:51:16
back to the basics she deserves for herself for the American people to vote up or down who
00:51:24
she really is and all the campaign strategists aside and all of the other nonsense aside I would want if I was
00:51:31
running for president one shot at people being able to see me for who I really am
00:51:39
and that's why she should go on R I think she's afraid of that I mean she has mostly ducked media interviews and
00:51:47
ducked any podcast that would be perceived as ever she's definitely gone with the friend but she sto she stopped
00:51:53
ducking them I think In fairness to her like maybe after she was like in the third or fourth week she started yeah
00:51:59
she's done call me daddy she's done Howard Stern knew would be super friendly yeah
00:52:03
of course yeah doing adversarial is don't you think that Trump did our show because he thought it would be friendly
00:52:10
yeah he started with friendlies yeah yeah why would he do opposition when Trump did I mean we were one of the
00:52:15
first podcasts he went on went on that fox she went on that Fox News thing she did Fox News for 26 minutes freeberg and
00:52:21
her staff was waving they were on the sidelines waving frantically to get her off of there um but any event was was
00:52:29
were we the first podcast to interview Trump second nek boys were first I guess we were
00:52:36
second I think that it was really unclear what would happen when you you know put a major candidate for president
00:52:44
on a podcast for an hour at the time he did it I think he took a little bit of a
00:52:47
risk um and I think it worked out for him and then he's done a lot more since then I mean other than Rogan Rogan and
00:52:54
us have consistent tried to get everybody on all sides to be on the podcast I think we did a really good job
00:53:00
looking back on we've gotten everybody except one person K yeah I mean I wish I had time to have asked January that get
00:53:11
to on my question we had all The Independents and we had all the credible Republicans and to his credit we were
00:53:17
the first for RFK right we were the first with first for Dean Phillips Dean Phillips and V
00:53:27
were the first for V and so yeah I give us some some credit there on the um search issue I looked into that there VI
00:53:34
sorry I always get that wrong the search issue there was some complaints that YouTube might have been like I don't
00:53:40
know hiding the video which didn't make much sense to people so I did an investigation of that sax you're
00:53:47
laughing go ahead well finish what you're saying no no no I have a different point of view
00:53:52
than you on this but I didn't get my point I know I've seen it on Twitter but keep going oh well no I did um a search
00:53:59
on you're going to defend Google I know no no I'm not defending Google I'm just explaining to people how search works
00:54:04
independent of it I went to Bing dock Dogo search. brave.com Google YouTube Google video and what people don't
00:54:14
understand about how the search algorithms work is they are designed to increase advertising dollars and
00:54:21
freeberg will back me up this he worked at Google and session link that's the goal am I correct freeberg with
00:54:28
algorithms whether it's Tik Tok YouTubes Etc yeah I I know more about search results I
00:54:36
don't know as much about the video stuff so so when you look at that it's it's a
00:54:40
very nuanced thing but Joe Rogan doesn't monetize his search he does not make any money for them and then
00:54:48
Clips do make money for YouTube and the clips have flooded the zone so if you do
00:54:53
a search on any search engine whether it's being or Brave or duck ducko Google or YouTube any of them what you'll find
00:55:01
is the clips beat out the main episodes all the time this happens to our podcast
00:55:07
when people clip our podcasts they will do keyword stuffing and they'll beat us and it will beat the algorithm because
00:55:14
the algorithm wants to get ads and we don't have ads turned on either so people have this frequent frustration
00:55:19
with this weekend startups my other podcast all in here and Joe Rogan that anything that's not monetized on YouTube
00:55:26
doesn't rank high and if you look all of the clips and this makes sense if you just
00:55:32
think logically the clips will will generate more engagement because you get to watch the highlights so it's kind of
00:55:40
like sports highlights sax would you like to conspiracy theory this and tell us that Sergey is sandbagging for the
00:55:47
Democrats or something by hiding YouTu conspiracy theory you can just I mean if you go to Google every single day and
00:55:53
just type in a trump related search term versus a Comm related search term you'll
00:55:58
see the difference in coverage but back to the the Rogan thing look Google is a search engine this is what they're
00:56:04
supposed to be good at you have an interview between the biggest podcaster in the world and a former president
00:56:10
who's probably the most famous person in the world it's massively trending it's got something like 100 million views at
00:56:16
the time that people noticed that you couldn't find it on YouTube it already had something like 34 million views what
00:56:22
I'm saying is you have to work pretty hard as a search engine for your algorithm to be so bad that you can't
00:56:29
find that interview okay when I went to YouTube and tried to find it at first I typed in Trump Rogan interview couldn't
00:56:35
find it then I typed Trump Rogan interview podcast couldn't find it it was just Clips then it was Trump Rogan
00:56:43
full interview full po podcast still couldn't find it there's no question that just is a factual matter this
00:56:49
episode was suppressed in YouTube search if you went to the main Google search engine and did a similar search what you
00:56:56
would have found as the number one search result was an article from the Arizona Republic which is a publication
00:57:04
I've never even heard of that would have told you that the Rogan interview with Trump was a brain rotted waste of three
00:57:10
hours that's the number one result somehow Google decides that his number one result for the Rogan interview was
00:57:17
this Arizona Republic story okay I I mean that is not a search engine doing its job so it's pretty obvious to me
00:57:25
that they're using other factors in deciding what to surface here and somehow the results end up being
00:57:35
almost universally negative towards Trump and almost universally positive towards kamla I think you've got to at
00:57:41
this point have your head buried really deep in the sand not to think that Google is incredibly biased in this
00:57:49
election against Trump let me pull up some facts to show how wrong you are if you pull up you
00:57:57
here's an image of the YouTube search results that I just did for the Trump Rogan and what you'll see is as I
00:58:03
explained previously Clips perform better and make money they make money so the algorithm favors those and what
00:58:10
you'll see here is Fox News Etc and all these clips and then eventually you get to The Joe Rogan interview and if you
00:58:15
look at Bing search results for Rogan Trump interview what you'll see is all the search engines put news up first
00:58:22
then they go to organic so it's just a fundamental misunderstanding of of how search is designed for users they start
00:58:29
with news on every search engine today and then here's Google's same thing and then what you'll see here is on the
00:58:36
Google and on the bang images you have a collection you know typically five or six news stories then they go to the
00:58:42
first organic so people just don't understand how search works it's always news first when you type in a
00:58:48
politician's name and then when you look at the news or you it has New York Post
00:58:52
right leaning you have people who are dead center like AP in there and you have Fox News there in the Google one so
00:58:58
of the first five two of them are right leaning and AP is obviously in the middle Forbes I don't know maybe Forbes
00:59:06
is Right leaning too freeberg over to you well I was going to say I read somewhere so I have no direct knowledge
00:59:13
about this I actually hanged several people at Google to ask them what was going on and I did not get a clear
00:59:18
response I I so like I have no insight as to what actually happened but what I read online somewhere was that someone
00:59:25
reported that someone at Google said that there were there was kind of a a whole bunch of people that clicked
00:59:32
inappropriate content flagging on the video so like anti-trump people went to the video clicked that it was
00:59:39
inappropriate and when when YouTube gets that many people clicking that this is inappropriate it automatically fling yes
00:59:48
it is a technique people will use they've used it on our program here where they right so if you get like a
00:59:52
million people that say at once like hey there's inappropriate content here the default is hide the video to hide the
01:00:00
video from search results while it's investigated but clearly there's something messed up here because they
01:00:05
should have been on top of that and responded immediately with the video that has such a large number of views
01:00:10
and such a large audience to allow that to happen and and drag on for so long but someone said that that may have been
01:00:17
what happened and then they fixed it I so I don't know but I just want to point that out that it may not necessarily
01:00:22
have been kind of overt action by Google but just the way that the system is set
01:00:26
up that anyone can flag and if enough people flag you get this s and I can tell you I know firsthand that Google is
01:00:32
aware of the claims of bias and you I think you're starting to see it just like CNN is aware of the claims of bias
01:00:39
added CNN is aware of the claims super I mean like all these companies are super
01:00:43
sensitive to so Facebook Mark Zuckerberg's very sensitive to it I know Sundar himself is very sensitive to it I
01:00:50
I don't want to kind of hide the fact that these people think that they're going out and being biased that they
01:00:55
have these kind of information Empires because they know that they're going to lose trust and they're going to lose
01:00:59
customers and revenue and Etc CNN has done I think an exceptional job I don't know if you watch it at all saxs but
01:01:06
they have been having Trump supporters and right-wing commentators in CNN on the desk every yes it's really changed
01:01:14
the nature of it from being like MSNBC or Fox did you know being something in the midle I've never I never watched I
01:01:21
never watch these shows but like before we go off on this topic people throughout this election have been post
01:01:26
in Google search results when you just type in Trump versus Harris and I've done it every single time it's massively
01:01:34
biased I mean let's just go through them this was a search result I got months ago where I just typed in Donald Trump
01:01:40
and you the first Carousel was about kamla Harris I remember joking on the Pod that if you want to find the latest
01:01:46
news about KLA Harris just search for Donald Trump and then you go down and the first Carousel that's about Trump is
01:01:54
negative stories this one was about project 2025 which has nothing to do with Trump nonetheless this was a major
01:01:59
Democratic talking point at the time is that somehow that project 2025 is what Trump would do in a second term I just
01:02:07
did this and it's different now obviously this is you said this is a few months old I've been doing this on a
01:02:12
recurring basis over the last few months and the point is that whenever you search for the candidates the news is
01:02:19
very positive towards Harris and it's very negative towards Trump and even when you search for Trump they'll give
01:02:26
positive news about Aris now go to the go to the podcast se you don't you don't think this is a function of the fact
01:02:32
that so many media Outlets are being so negative about Trump and positive about Harris and so therefore the ratio is
01:02:36
just off how does the Arizona Republic end up being the first choice when you search for Rogan Trump they're not you
01:02:43
know like page rank can't explain that they're just not a major publication they're not being linked to by a lot of
01:02:48
people doesn't make any sense here's another example okay stay on this one for a second this was after Trump went
01:02:54
on the Andrew Schulz podcast that podcast was a very positive experience for him as we just talked
01:03:01
about helped his campaign a lot what's the number one result when you look at for that new Republic podcast host
01:03:08
laughing Trump face as he struggles to defend rambling that's when he had that hilarious story about The Weave if you
01:03:14
actually watch the clip the podcast hosts were they were definitely laughing with him they were not laughing at him
01:03:19
that was a ridiculous mischaracterization the new Republic is not the objective uh source for anything
01:03:26
I don't know how you could say that objectively page rank should get you to the new Republic as the number one
01:03:32
source for the Andrew Schultz interview of trump that is bias I mean it's just biased you there's been so many examples
01:03:41
of Google giving these ridiculous results and they find obscure Publications and obscure articles that
01:03:50
have no basis in the truth to to elevate to the top it's almost like they're trying to find the most negative article
01:03:56
they can find on Trump and make that the number one result yeah it's not the search engine it's just the Corpus of
01:04:02
media that's being indexed um if you look here at Google why is New York Times then that's the number one thing
01:04:09
well I mean just you know here if you look at Donald Trump you know if we were to look at these new sources there's NBC
01:04:16
NPR Politico and New York Times are left leaning if you were to do this on um I think I have bang as the next one you
01:04:23
can open and you can look at the next one Nick which is duck Dugo in all of these cases the problem is only 3 or 4%
01:04:30
of journalists at Publications today are right leaning and most of the right leaning Publications are opinion
01:04:37
Publications like Fox Etc and so you just you don't have a lot of representation in the index of
01:04:43
Republicans and that's like a big opportunity I think for Republicans is to make more Publications or take more
01:04:48
Publications over like we're seeing with the LA Times and Washington Post think going to Publications if Google would
01:04:55
choose to surface them but it decides that it doesn't want to it's it's on a percentage basis it's very small as the
01:05:02
problem here you go this is Arizona Republic rocketing to the top of search results for Joe Rogan Trump interview
01:05:08
that's a publication that is local to Arizona that no one's ever heard of it has no basis being the number one result
01:05:14
in Google New York Times is second okay I can see the logic of that because New York Times is a big publication then you
01:05:21
go down one row to the Carousel oh there's new Republic again why because it's calling Trump appearing on Joe
01:05:28
Rogan shady and then you've got another one another one there from the Independent calling Trump a predator I
01:05:34
mean come on this is ridiculous okay so you've shared these examples um what I what I would recommend is I think we get
01:05:40
someone from Google on the show we could arrange that and they can kind of talk about how the algorithm works because I
01:05:45
don't think any of us are going to be able to provide a reasonable Counterpoint or understanding of what's
01:05:49
going on and if there is bias um and there's some kind of manual intervention in this in this process maybe it can be
01:05:56
kind of discussed and talked about why and how and you know what the automation is that causes this to happen and let's
01:06:02
just try let's try let's try and cover I'll I'll take that as a to-do and I'll try and find someone that we can
01:06:07
talk with listen to have a conversation they do I I look I mean I've talked with
01:06:11
a lot of people over there and I have heard from a lot of folks that this is a real issue that folks are trying to
01:06:17
address internally so that there's this perception of bias that they're trying to get rid of and they really want to
01:06:22
address it this is what I've heard from people at Google so I want to give them a chance to come talk pull up the look
01:06:27
rather than having us all debate it or I don't even have a strong point of view on this I'd rather just bring someone in
01:06:31
and talk about it so just as a counter point here Nick pull up the B I just did for Donald Trump and we'll just if you
01:06:35
do it as an exercise that's always the way to find the objective truth here is to try the independent search engines or
01:06:40
other search engines duck ducko bravex perplexity do that as well we'll see but anyway if you look here this
01:06:48
bing one if you take out MSN well no woke woke search.com J MSN USA Today Charlotte Observer Seattle Times
01:06:59
Washington Post I think these are all left leaning so that is more to my point that like the entire Corpus of news
01:07:06
reportage is 95% left leaning that's what's happening here and so they need to they're going to need to manually
01:07:14
Sach say these 5% should get represented 5050 in the search results to please the
01:07:21
other side even though that's not what the Corpus is and the number of stories written by left leaning just is probably
01:07:28
50 to one to right leaning moving on I have an alterate explanation can we just pull up this this it's got some data I'd
01:07:37
like to just pull up this data if I could if you look at employee donations to party we've tech companies it's all
01:07:43
90s something percent goes to Democrats except for that's a pretty simple explanation for why the Google search
01:07:50
results are horribly biased in One Direction Uber's 18% all right let's go to our final segment
01:08:00
here we'll talk a little bit about the election why don't you te us up here Freer all right guys I'll quickly uh
01:08:06
introduce our final political election update before our live stream on Tuesday obviously a lot of
01:08:17
daily freakout daily efforts at having an October surprise that will take down the other side all sorts of drama all
01:08:25
sorts of insult not a lot of love in America right now super depressing and sad all sorts of stuff happened this
01:08:31
week jcal why don't you kick us off what do you think's going to happen on Tuesday what are the things that you
01:08:35
think are going to move people between now and then it's a tossup I mean that's what everybody's saying it looks like
01:08:40
Trump's got a slight lead and so I think it's going to be a tossup saxs agreed are we 6535 as poly Market predicts or
01:08:48
are we 100% Trump are we 90% K La Harris what are we uh looking well you definitely can't say it's going to be
01:08:55
100% anyone I mean but if again if you look at all the data the data is definitely
01:09:00
pointing towards Trump having an advantage it's U obviously the prediction markets are almost two to one
01:09:05
in favor of trump the polling shows that Trump is ahead narrowly in this in all the swing States I think every single
01:09:11
one of them even the uh sort of blue wall states of Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin that Harris must win I think
01:09:18
in order to have a path to Victory whereas Michigan and Wisconsin are very very close like 1% or less in
01:09:27
the swing state polls Pennsylvania polling shows that Trump is ahead by I think two or three that's
01:09:33
what I've seen today so it's it is looking good for Trump and if you look at the numbers that elon's group The
01:09:41
that America pack put out it looks like the early voting in Pennsylvania is trending 500,000 votes better for
01:09:52
republicans in the early voting than four years ago but is that just pulling votes forward some folks have said it
01:09:59
could be instead of showing up at The Ballot Box on Tuesday a lot of folks are doing mailin and making sure they get
01:10:04
their vote in in mail instead of going in first there's so then you got to look at polling of people who say they're
01:10:10
going to vote but haven't voted yet in Pennsylvania who say they're going to vote on Election Day and I think those
01:10:16
numbers are running about 18 points ahead for Trump which is about double what he needs to win so he just to be
01:10:24
clear the early voting favors Harris but not by the same percentages that it did
01:10:28
four years ago so right now it looks like Trump is tracking to win that state but look I can't guarantee it I'm not
01:10:38
representing that you know that's exactly what's going to happen but right now the numbers are looking good
01:10:44
remember Biden only won Pennsylvania by 880,000 votes and again the swing so far
01:10:50
is uh Republicans are doing 500,000 votes better than they were doing four years ago so there's a lot of stories
01:10:56
coming out on Twitter on Independent Media and on mainstream Media or Legacy Media as we might call it now talking
01:11:02
about hey I live at a house I got 15 ballots mailed to me all with different random names and these sort of anecdotal
01:11:09
stories are being pushed and then Amplified by folks that are involved in the election chamat is this kind of
01:11:17
dangerous do we think that there really is a lot of this kind of election meddling happening and if not or if
01:11:24
there is is this kind of a dangerous thing to happen where a lot of people are talking
01:11:29
about this where no matter what happens on Tuesday people start to question the results of the election how much should
01:11:34
we be kind of worried about this rhetoric I think there are two things there's the substance and then there's
01:11:39
the strategy the substance is that does it really make sense that the most advanced and important country in
01:11:46
the world doesn't have a uniform system where one ballot is given to every single
01:11:55
American citizen who is eligible to vote that probably makes sense so we should probably just figure out how to
01:12:04
do that separately the strategy of it is for both sides to lay the groundwork to
01:12:10
say that this thing somehow wasn't totally right down the middle I am hoping for a very clear
01:12:18
decisive Victory and frankly whichever candidate wins I hope that it's very clear and
01:12:25
decisive so that everybody is forced to deescalate and move on now that said I think what the early
01:12:35
voting data shows is something that you haven't seen in the past which is that there are
01:12:45
a lot of Republican people that are voting early I don't know what that means for
01:12:51
election day but typically it's the Democrats that dominate these early voting processes and they build
01:12:59
What's called the firewall and in these swing States these firewalls become very
01:13:03
important going into election day and as saak said a bunch of these states are different than they've historically
01:13:11
been in the favor of the Republicans I saw an article today that just said that they've basically
01:13:18
considered Nevada now in the Republican Camp because like there's been so much early voting that it's about 60% of the
01:13:26
total votes they think have already been cast since they they have a very clear Republican lead going into election day
01:13:32
so there's all kinds of stuff here that's new I just hope that it's just an absolutely crushing victory in One
01:13:38
Direction or the other so that we deescalate and get get on to the business of running the country so I'm
01:13:45
going to break with my most my Republican Brethren on this and say I think early voting is actually a good
01:13:50
thing it's it's very convenient right like why force people to only vote on just one day because what if you get
01:13:58
sick or a kid gets sick and you have to pick him up from school there's a lot of
01:14:01
things that can go wrong it is more convenient to have say two or three weeks to be able to cast your vote I
01:14:06
actually think that's not a bad thing and in terms of who it helps I'm not sure but I think that as the Republicans
01:14:12
become more of a populist party and the Democrats become more of an elitist party I think higher turnout might
01:14:18
actually might benefit Republicans regardless I think it's a huge convenience for voters and I think early
01:14:24
voting is something that we should keep the thing we got to change is in the states where you don't have to present
01:14:31
any voter ID to show who you are that's just crazy I mean you just you go up to the polling place and you give your name
01:14:38
and I guess your address they look you up in a computer and they hand you a ballot and there's no verification that
01:14:43
you're you are who you say you are that to me is crazy the other thing that's crazy is that you can even get
01:14:48
registered and added to the voter roles in a lot of states without any proof of citizenship so there are states where
01:14:57
you can go get a driver's license without proof of citizenship and there's just a checkbox to be added to the voter
01:15:02
rules and no one ever checks your Citizen and now you're on the voter Rule and you can go pick up your ballot
01:15:09
without any voter ID that's just crazy to me so I think that after this election there should be some sort of
01:15:16
Bill that gets passed and signed by the president that sets a minimum standard for for voter integrity and federal
01:15:25
election for federal election for federal election states can do what they want right like each state can states
01:15:30
can do what they want but I don't think States should be able to do whatever they want in federal election I just
01:15:33
want I want to point out that each state is effectively voting for the folks that
01:15:39
they want to have go to the Electoral College and that's really where the vote for president is cast so but that
01:15:45
affects all of us if there's hold on if there's cheating in several States and in a close election by the way I'm not
01:15:52
I'm not accusing that of happening okay I'm just saying that if we have several states that don't have basic voter
01:16:00
Integrity that affects the outcome of a election that has a huge impact on all of us let's just talk about this really
01:16:06
important point which I think a lot of folks ignore it's not a direct democracy it's not like everyone in the united
01:16:11
states votes for the president what happens is the states send a bunch of electors to go vote for the president
01:16:17
the each state casts a vote for the president how each state ultimately decides who they're going to vote for
01:16:24
for president is through this kind of process that we've kind of standardized across the states but each state is
01:16:29
making a vote so shouldn't the states be able to kind of decide how they want to
01:16:33
make their kind of voting process run internally to determine who the V are that are going to go to the Electoral
01:16:39
College yeah I mean I think the Constitution specifies that the states will run their own elections and and I'm
01:16:44
fine with that but what I'm saying is there needs to be a minimum standard to me the minimum standard is voter ID and
01:16:49
proof of citizenship to get registered I'm in strong agreement with saxs on on this front and I've actually done a ton
01:16:56
of research into it that I would like to share because I think this is an important service we can do here on the
01:17:02
all-in podcast I think I had uh Hans so as a dieh hard moderate you agree with sex I I I mean
01:17:10
as an American I don't you know putting political parties aside I had Hans Von spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation on
01:17:18
this week and startups last Tuesday you can watch it and they have spent a ton of money and time on elction
01:17:25
fraud and obviously they're a partisan organization they found 1600 cases in 40 years it's about 40 a year they found 23
01:17:35
cases in 2020 none of them were in Georgia you can go search those cases you'll find cases like this one here
01:17:42
that Nick will pull up Randy Allen jumper who voted twice and the database is amazing anybody they're they're like
01:17:48
crowdsourcing this and so putting all partisan aside the Heritage Foundation is doing great work here because
01:17:55
sunlight is the best disinfectant and what's really important for Americans to understand is it is
01:18:02
impossible right now absolutely statistically impossible to swing the presidential election with fraud the
01:18:11
Brennan Center they're on the other side they did a report about voter fraud um and they put it at
01:18:18
0.003% and 0.0025% and basically you've got a much greater chance of being struck by
01:18:26
lightning and let's just do a little bit of math here 158 million people voted in
01:18:30
2020 we'll have about 160 million this year if the estimates are correct and if you look at swing States right that's
01:18:39
where I think a lot of people are concerned oh what if they could swing it in Georgia right and we all know from
01:18:44
the famous phone call to Brad raffensberger who's a republican Secretary of State uh and Trump said hey
01:18:51
you know we got to find these 11,780 votes that was the winning margin so if we were to talk about that right and we
01:18:57
compare it to what the Heritage Foundation found 1,600 cases documented in 40 years about 40 a year now there
01:19:06
could be a multiple of that freeberg 10 times a hundred times but to find 11,000
01:19:13
ballots this would require in Georgia for which has voter ID and by the way voter ID is in 35 of 50 states
01:19:22
already after this election it's going to hit 40 because it's just obvious that we all want that Georgia requires you to
01:19:29
have ID to vote in person and you have to water and they' Watermark the ballots so in order shth for somebody to do this
01:19:37
they would have to fake 12,000 Watermark ballots and have fake IDs and have those
01:19:45
12,000 people not show up to vote and have two votes there then well looks like Georgia's got a great system but
01:19:52
we're talking about the states that don't like in California they just passed a law saying that you're not
01:19:56
allowed to look at voter ID right and so that obviously should change but the point is even in California which
01:20:04
California California did that why do you guys think such a law is passed what's the justification for that they
01:20:11
want to not have somebody who had a chance to vote vote and it obviously benefits Democrats if you believe that
01:20:20
uh minorities don't have ID in some greater population which people have rightly called out is racist uh and
01:20:26
there is this concept that black people or Hispanic people might not have IDs to
01:20:32
the same extent and they would lean Democrat that is the cynical approach that uh people have taken but if we if
01:20:39
we look at this it is impossible impossible to S the federal election sorry Jason you're saying it's a Dei
01:20:47
thing that's that's what people claim I'm not saying I claim that's I think that's condescending and nonsense to act
01:20:53
like minorities don't driver's license that's ridiculous ridiculous or some other form of ID I I think it's ABS your
01:20:59
question Toth I don't think there is a a good justification there's none for rejecting voter ID and the law is even
01:21:06
worse than that because it literally makes it illegal for someone to ask so if you go to a polling place in
01:21:11
California they can't look at your ID even if you say well I lost my Ballot or something they just have to take your
01:21:18
word for it you when they give you a new ballot there's a legal requirement for every employer when you hire somebody to
01:21:24
make sure that that person is eligible to work in the United States if you're going to pay them legally right you get
01:21:29
an I9 and they need to you know uh justify that they have a Social Security number that typically tells you whether
01:21:37
you need a a supplemental work authorization or not so if you do that for normal functional
01:21:45
employment why wouldn't you do it for voting as well of course you need an idea to get on a plane you need an idea
01:21:52
to buy a beer right you need an ID to do all sorts of things in our society right
01:21:58
so it's it's ludicrous I mean and and voting is something where you should need an ID because you have to say you
01:22:04
have to match up that the person who's standing in front of you at The Ballot Box is the person on the voter roles
01:22:10
well why is it more important to make sure that the person sitting in 23b on the United flight is who he says it is
01:22:19
but it's less important for someone to just walk in off the street and vote for the president of the United States why
01:22:24
is that because people believe that certain communities may not have ID and then
01:22:31
they would be not right to vote why don't why don't you allow people to just get on an airplane and just fly wherever
01:22:37
they want like why don't yeah or or drive without a driver 100% yeah yeah I mean it's I'm not saying I agree with
01:22:44
any this I'm telling you what people have said is the reason I think it's it's cover I think that's total nonsense
01:22:50
I think it's actually if you think about it it's insulting to minority groups to
01:22:53
imply that they're inable getting a vo when you say when you say people you're saying people in
01:22:59
charge the people in charge of California this is what they think yes and it turns out the only didn't have
01:23:07
cheating we haven't had voter ID they wanted not every state has government IDE that isn't a driver's
01:23:17
license right so this is Gavin new it's obvious to see what the effect this is going to be is it it it makes it
01:23:26
easier to engage in cheating do you guys think if Gavin Newsome was on an airplane and we said half these people
01:23:34
here have just bought a ticket but we didn't check their IDs would he get off the plane or stay on
01:23:40
the plane do you think right and TSA requires ID so that they can do a check on everyone make sure they're not on a
01:23:46
do not fly list and all that sort of stuff there's consensus that everybody wants voter ID I think you can kind of
01:23:51
think about a there's a do not fly list and there should be do not vote list like if you're not a citizen you should
01:23:56
be on the do not vote list meaning you have to be on the I can vote list in order to vote seems pretty reasonable
01:24:02
and you know the fact that we've got a lot of federal agencies checking IDs to deter important Point here is there is
01:24:09
no way to swing the election even if there is a moderate amount that's that is the most important for people to take
01:24:15
out you're not worried draw that conclusion if people can cheat then you can swing an election you can draw it
01:24:21
statistically based upon what I've just said which is the smallest race is 11,779 remember when Trump asked them to
01:24:31
find those votes do you remember that you're talking about the state of Georgia which I think actually has
01:24:38
Integrity we're talking about the state of California here that's the closest race just law so just in your mind in
01:24:45
your mind logically think about what it would take to get 11,000 779 people to fraudulently do
01:24:52
that and that they would go to jail and it would be a felony so this is that doesn't sound that hard to me I'm just
01:24:58
saying like finding 11,000 votes or whatever doesn't seem that hard if there's no voter Ian if Trump couldn't
01:25:03
do it how is it going to get done it's not possible where would you get 11,000 ballots maybe not in Georgia because
01:25:10
they actually have voter in CIA where would you get a$ 11,000 CIA is hold on a second California is a huge State they
01:25:16
allow ballot harvesting and they've eliminated voter ID yeah so telling impossible for someone to cheat
01:25:22
nothing's impossible in cheat we all agree cheating exists like credit cud fraud exists what I'm saying is it's so
01:25:29
manageable that it is farcical for anybody to think that we could swing the presidential election because Trump
01:25:38
tried to swing the presidential election by asking to find 11,000 and he filed 58
01:25:44
lawsuits and lost all of them it's not possible folks do do you think so then what is the value then of having voter
01:25:50
ID Jason if the cheating is so hard because it would add more trust to the system and it's always virtuous to
01:25:57
add more trust I think they should also give you a receipt uh when you vote to make sure there's no Shenanigans and we
01:26:03
want to build as much trust in the system as possible but the point receipt reduce fraud it would reduce people
01:26:12
believing that their vote was changed after they left the box so if we all had a receipt and then there was some debate
01:26:18
in a small area because of you know hanging Chads like in Florida everybody would have their and if you remember the
01:26:25
hanging Chad's case there were people who said I voted for Gore I voted for Bush and my vote got counted wrong
01:26:32
people don't remember this but you had to push through a card and it popped a Chad out of a little circle and there
01:26:37
are people who did it wrong because the instructions were you know it's a physical thing you have to punch a hole
01:26:43
into it I don't know who came up with that system as opposed to drawing a circle but that that was for years ago
01:26:48
I'm sure that's CH by now there was a guy named Chad yeah but no now they are giving receipts to people so so the gold
01:26:54
standard is giving a receipt showing ID and having multiple weeks to do it and so if anybody's taking anything away
01:27:01
from this there can be cheating but it cannot swing the president okay so Jason's going in can I make a um a point
01:27:08
so you mentioned uh I think fraud rates credit card fraud rates didn't you I think that's one of the things you
01:27:13
mentioned well the same way we don't worry about credit C fraud because there's a certain tiny amount of it in
01:27:20
the system now in this case it would be a magnitude more than voter fraud voter fraud is extremely rare because there's
01:27:28
no there's no incentive to cheat that would be worth going to jail for and that's why people generally don't cheat
01:27:37
in these elections because the cost is so great I was the COO of a payments company so let me actually sorry that
01:27:43
was sax sorry go ahead s let me explain how this actually works since I was founding Co of
01:27:50
payp massive amounts of credit card fraud can I just explain this to the audience sure you can create all the
01:27:56
models you want and you can create an expectation of future fraud based on the prior fraud rates however if you change
01:28:04
your verification standards that data is no longer relevant if you create a loophole big enough for a fraudster to
01:28:11
drive a truck through then if a fraudster figures that out you could have infinite amounts of fraud the in
01:28:18
other words the historical fraud rate may not be predictive of future fraud if you change the verification a standards
01:28:25
and I would say that the state of California signing a bill that prohibits voter ID might be such a loophole so I
01:28:32
don't see how you can say with this kind of certainty and confidence you're saying that no fraud could ever swing an
01:28:39
election of course fraud could swing an election could swing the presidential election it could swing a tiny election
01:28:44
in a state or in a local place of course it could because there's a very in finding out what I believe is that I'm
01:28:51
talking logic would you do 11,000 th000 is the question it would be incredibly difficult to do 11,000 Trump tried to
01:28:59
swing 11 if you create a big enough loophole it doesn't sound that hard to me it just doesn't matter of common
01:29:03
sense I don't think you can say that something is impossible what we should do is simply tighten up these
01:29:08
requirements we're agreement about that I'm just talking about this election voter ID in this election you don't have
01:29:14
to worry 35 out of 50 starting in January we pass a national voter ID law minimum standard we all agree on that
01:29:21
100% we all agree on that yes I'm just saying this election practically 35 out of 5050 states have voter ID and the
01:29:27
ones that don't the closest margin is 11,700 this time happek we'll see you we'll see on Tuesday night with Phil
01:29:36
helmuth on a short leash for the dictator chath ptia your sulan of Science and the
01:29:44
architect I am the world's greatest moderate moderator we'll see you next time [Applause]
01:29:53
byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and in said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:30:04
with it queen [Music] of Besties are that's my dog taking I your driveway man oh man my habiter will meet
01:30:23
me at we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like
01:30:28
sexual tension that they just need to release [Music] somehow we need to get [Music]
01:30:46
mer I'm doing [Music]