00:00:00
we had dinner last week and sax and I
00:00:02
got bombed last week we had dinner and
00:00:04
we drank a
00:00:07
quadruple Kasa I've not seen jcal drink
00:00:11
like that before I stopped in for a few
00:00:13
minutes drinking I mean Kasa aul he tore
00:00:16
my house apart getting back in oh my God
00:00:20
like a bear like a bear I went Brooklyn
00:00:22
sth he was like a bear he was like a
00:00:23
drunk bear but I I spoke to the lady of
00:00:26
the manor and I will be staying at Sax's
00:00:28
house next time so I will be able to
00:00:31
refresh the ranch's soap and towels yeah
00:00:34
I'm staying in your place I need you
00:00:36
know what I forgot to get towels when I
00:00:37
was at shiman has got these amazing
00:00:39
embroidered towels so I'll just hit
00:00:41
those up when I hit your place um it's
00:00:43
really funny to go to jcal Ranch and
00:00:45
there's going to be a big S on his
00:00:46
towels like wait why why is there an s
00:00:49
on I got
00:00:50
the on it I've got a robe on the back it
00:00:54
says
00:00:56
Maga I took all the Maga robes from what
00:00:59
is What is the stand for is
00:01:03
grifter oh it's so funny
00:01:06
steals Ste he's got a bunch of towels
00:01:09
that say c as well
00:01:11
[Music]
00:01:14
cheap let your winners
00:01:17
ride Rainman
00:01:21
David and inste we open sources it to
00:01:23
the fans and they've just gone crazy
00:01:25
with Love Queen of
00:01:30
all right listen happy Halloween to
00:01:32
everybody and we've got a great docket
00:01:35
for you today but I just upfront wanted
00:01:37
to let people know that we will be
00:01:40
having the all-in Holiday
00:01:43
Spectacular on December 7th at the
00:01:46
Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco
00:01:47
it's going to be amazing allin.com
00:01:50
events and next Tuesday that's right
00:01:53
November 5th if you go to our YouTube at
00:01:57
7 p.m. Pacific Time 10 p.m. eastern time
00:02:01
we're going to do an election Night Live
00:02:03
stream for the fans we're almost at
00:02:05
700,000 subscribers so subscribe to
00:02:08
comment and join us on our live stream
00:02:10
on Tuesday night there'll be guests
00:02:12
right there's going to be some fun
00:02:13
guests I think helth is still banned by
00:02:16
chamath for life but I may bring him on
00:02:18
and let give him a second chance chth is
00:02:20
that okay I bring him on for a second
00:02:23
chance sure okay so we're gonna give
00:02:26
helth a second chance we'll see be a
00:02:30
tight leash if he makes it about himself
00:02:33
in s seconds or less 7 Seconds to Phil
00:02:35
hel youth he's going to get kicked right
00:02:36
off the show okay holiday party did we
00:02:38
announce that yeah so the holiday party
00:02:41
go to allin.com events if you want to
00:02:43
come it's going to be great you guys
00:02:45
aren't going to be happy but we are
00:02:47
setting uh we are GNA spend a million
00:02:49
dollars on this party how do you spend a
00:02:51
million dollars on a party dude did you
00:02:54
see the s belt last time for that sounds
00:02:57
like a lot of founder that's a lot of
00:02:59
yeah about 300,000 we'll probably lose
00:03:02
money on the party but it's going to be
00:03:04
it's not meant to be call it a profit
00:03:06
Center but it's just going to be super
00:03:07
fun be a great part you cannot put a
00:03:10
price on a good time and you know if
00:03:12
you're going to get that premium founder
00:03:14
mode did you always want to be a party
00:03:16
promoter when you were like in high
00:03:17
school and in college so when I was in
00:03:18
college I had a DJ set up I had like
00:03:21
synthesizer setup which I plugged in and
00:03:23
I did live electronic music with my DJ
00:03:26
set I'm going to drop the beat jth
00:03:31
I'm GNA drop the beat here it comes a
00:03:35
couple of uh my startups now are doing
00:03:37
something interesting Athena bought like
00:03:39
a pack of tickets and they're doing like
00:03:41
a holiday party there with their top for
00:03:43
our event for our event they basically
00:03:45
bought a bundle of VIP tickets and
00:03:46
they're giving them to the top customers
00:03:48
and their top employees to come that's
00:03:50
cool and make it like their holiday
00:03:51
party in San Francisco with their
00:03:53
customers so that's kind of neat smart
00:03:54
move by them and so if you uh have a
00:03:57
startup and you want to bring your
00:03:58
startup you can buy a a pack of tickets
00:04:00
as it were that's actually a really good
00:04:02
idea a bunch of these small startups
00:04:04
should just co-opt our holiday party as
00:04:06
your holiday precisely yeah just buy 10
00:04:09
tickets and come hey freeberg is gonna
00:04:11
go below a million
00:04:13
bucks co-opted I'm hopeful today we're
00:04:15
gonna sign this DJ um which is everyone
00:04:18
everyone knows the DJ and it is gonna be
00:04:20
pretty sick if we can get degenerate
00:04:21
Gambler we know him we play bker with
00:04:23
him whatever we pay him he's going to
00:04:26
lose twice as much at the poker game
00:04:27
let's just let's call it what it is SX
00:04:30
can you host Um poker at your house
00:04:32
after the party
00:04:34
yeah
00:04:37
no what a team
00:04:41
player he built an entire poker building
00:04:44
and he's used it like seven
00:04:46
times f David saaks is just the absolute
00:04:49
best all right let's get to work you
00:04:51
know what's winning as well is the US
00:04:53
GDP here we go it grew uh slightly
00:04:56
slower than expected but the top line
00:04:57
numbers are healthy looks like soft
00:05:00
Landing might be baked in we'll see on
00:05:02
Wednesday the Department of Commerce
00:05:04
reported that real GDP grew 2.88% in Q3
00:05:08
uh that means it's adjusted for
00:05:10
inflation and um you know you can't look
00:05:13
at these things in a vacuum you have to
00:05:15
look at the other Western countries and
00:05:17
their GDP Japan 7 Australia 0.2 Germany
00:05:21
.2 Canada 0.5 the world is not growing
00:05:24
us is growing briskly and um in terms of
00:05:29
how the think about it 2 to 3% is uh
00:05:32
sort of The Sweet Spot for mature
00:05:33
economies above 3% positive but can also
00:05:37
signal overheating like we experienced
00:05:39
during zurp and in 2021 under 2% yeah
00:05:43
stagnation uh US GDP was 30 basis points
00:05:46
below the Dow Jones consensus forecast
00:05:48
of
00:05:49
3.1% there's your chart if you missed it
00:05:53
and um obviously inflation we talked
00:05:56
about this last week is at 2.4% very
00:05:59
close to to the 2% Target unemployment
00:06:02
4.1% close to Historic lows 10year
00:06:05
Treasury 4.3% and obviously stock market
00:06:08
at its all-time high again there's your
00:06:11
S&P Dow and NASDAQ as we've talked about
00:06:14
over in over again shth the federal debt
00:06:16
is the issue 35 trillion in debt we have
00:06:19
a trillion in annual interest payments
00:06:21
on that debt and freeberg your pet peeve
00:06:25
23.5 million directly and millions more
00:06:28
indirectly as we know Federal government
00:06:30
employees now at 3 million it's about 1%
00:06:32
of the country and uh state government
00:06:34
employees 5.5 million local governments
00:06:37
15 million put it all together and we
00:06:40
got almost 25 million people working for
00:06:44
our
00:06:45
government what do you think the
00:06:47
prescription here is freeberg as we uh
00:06:50
come up on Election Day and we look
00:06:52
towards next year do you believe we can
00:06:54
cut this crazy spending and what do you
00:06:56
think's going to happen to the economy
00:06:58
will it overheat soft Landing you're
00:07:01
running a company now so you have to
00:07:02
think about this
00:07:04
obviously oh well I'll separate running
00:07:07
a company because I think that's got to
00:07:08
be treated independently from macro you
00:07:10
can't build your business run macro but
00:07:12
10year treasuries are sitting at just
00:07:13
around 4.3% I think what the market is
00:07:16
telling us and remember that's off of a
00:07:18
low right when the the rate Cuts were
00:07:21
happening if you'll remember in
00:07:22
mid-september we got down to just around
00:07:25
3 and a half% the market is telling us
00:07:27
that with the sort of econom growth
00:07:29
we're seeing low
00:07:32
unemployment and you know call it modest
00:07:34
inflation this is not the time to be
00:07:36
cutting rates and the market is saying
00:07:38
we are expecting higher rates for longer
00:07:42
so I do think that that's one big kind
00:07:44
of turnaround that's happened in the
00:07:45
last 90 days which is really I think a
00:07:47
big surprise to a lot of folks is just
00:07:49
how robust things are relative to where
00:07:52
folks thought that they were about 90
00:07:53
days ago urging pleading and supposedly
00:07:56
needing a big rate cut to get the
00:07:58
economy moving again but I think at the
00:08:00
end of the day everyone's looking to the
00:08:01
election as kind of the next big moment
00:08:04
in the economy both Trump and comma have
00:08:08
made fiscal
00:08:09
proposals that would be deeply expensive
00:08:13
if you assume the you know these these
00:08:16
budgeting groups that go out and take
00:08:17
their policy proposals and try and build
00:08:19
a model against them that they're both
00:08:20
going to add trillions of dollars to the
00:08:21
debt they're going to increase deficit
00:08:23
spending Etc but the reality is that
00:08:26
neither of them are actually going to
00:08:27
end up theoretically being able to ex
00:08:30
all those policies and there will be
00:08:33
some degree difference
00:08:36
end lot of talk about Doge the
00:08:39
department of government uh what is the
00:08:43
last word efficiency efficiency
00:08:45
efficiency that Elon might be
00:08:47
collaborating on where do you think the
00:08:49
chances are he said there could be two
00:08:51
trillion in in savings that could occur
00:08:54
what are the chances that any meaningful
00:08:56
Cuts happen and we reverse the trend in
00:08:59
if Trump say he wins and and he and he
00:09:02
creates that position I think the first
00:09:04
question that'll inform how dramatic the
00:09:08
cuts are is whether
00:09:11
we organize ourselves around an accurate
00:09:14
sense of where the actual economy
00:09:16
is if you look at the print today it
00:09:20
would actually tell you that things are
00:09:22
pretty okay and that we are not sort of
00:09:26
near an unsustainable Turning Point
00:09:30
however and Nick if you want to just
00:09:31
throw up this chart if you back out the
00:09:36
percentage of government consumption
00:09:39
that is included in GDP you start to see
00:09:42
a very different picture which is that
00:09:44
over the last two and a half
00:09:47
years all of the economic
00:09:50
gains under the Biden
00:09:53
Administration have largely been through
00:09:55
government consumption what that means
00:09:59
is that private
00:10:01
industry has been standing on the
00:10:03
sidelines somewhat and that actually
00:10:06
maps to a lot of this
00:10:09
intuition that I've had over the last
00:10:11
few months when I've said I think we're
00:10:13
in a low-key recession because what I
00:10:14
could never figure out is why I would
00:10:17
look at the earnings transcripts of a
00:10:19
bunch of companies who would constantly
00:10:21
talk about softening demand and by the
00:10:25
way this is across the board it wasn't
00:10:27
just cpg companies but Dropbox as an
00:10:30
example same sort of thing they just
00:10:32
laid off 20% of their staff and the and
00:10:34
the memo was about weakening demand so
00:10:36
this is a broad-based softening as far
00:10:39
as companies experience the economy but
00:10:43
the high level number is positive which
00:10:45
would make you think that everything is
00:10:46
fine but when you look at that chart and
00:10:48
you back out the percentage of the
00:10:51
positive news that the government is
00:10:53
responsible for what it means is the
00:10:55
economy is flat and the economy isn't
00:10:58
growing which means that roughly there
00:11:00
are a bunch of folks that are seeing
00:11:02
contraction
00:11:04
so I think that if you normalize on that
00:11:08
view of the
00:11:10
world I think the cuts that Elon will
00:11:13
affect will be
00:11:15
meaningful and
00:11:17
necessary if you uh pull up this chart
00:11:20
Nick of the uh Federal net outlays as a
00:11:22
percentage of GDP I mean you're
00:11:25
basically at an you're you're at a flat
00:11:27
stalling economy
00:11:29
well if you look at this you know we we
00:11:31
basically have had High Teens during our
00:11:34
lifetime Clinton era 70s and 80s and
00:11:36
then uh it's gone up into the 20s now so
00:11:40
that is definitely something the amount
00:11:43
of spending we're doing sorry just to
00:11:45
again this is where you can get a little
00:11:47
confused by data Jason this is net
00:11:49
outlays Y and that's different from
00:11:52
total gross government spending which
00:11:53
also includes QE so if you go back to
00:11:56
the other chart why is this one going
00:11:58
down and the other one represents 85% of
00:12:01
GDP it's because that one is a more
00:12:03
accurate sense of what the government is
00:12:05
doing across all of its tentacles in the
00:12:08
United States economy it includes the
00:12:10
money printer going bur which the net
00:12:12
outlays chart doesn't
00:12:14
include so just to be clear about what's
00:12:16
happening 85% of this quarter's GDP was
00:12:19
induced by the government if you sub if
00:12:22
you sub it out so take 2.8% and multiply
00:12:25
it by
00:12:26
0.15 that is the true growth X the
00:12:29
United States government that exists in
00:12:31
the United States economy today saxs
00:12:33
your thoughts here on the GDP obviously
00:12:37
looks pretty good for Biden Harris to
00:12:40
have all these stats going in their
00:12:42
favor but there is the caveat obviously
00:12:45
about the government spending in there
00:12:48
yeah no I think that's right I mean I I
00:12:50
think that for Harris and the election
00:12:53
it's probably a little too late for this
00:12:55
GDP report to be helpful if you go back
00:13:00
all the way to 1992 where the whole
00:13:02
election hinged on the economy remember
00:13:04
that was Bill Clinton running against
00:13:06
George HW Bush and Clinton's message was
00:13:09
it's the economy stupid Y and um
00:13:11
Carville right came up with that
00:13:13
Carville came up with it and and Clinton
00:13:15
beat Bush because we had a recession in
00:13:18
I think
00:13:19
91 but by 92 it was over already and in
00:13:23
the final week of the
00:13:25
campaign Bush tried to tout a similarly
00:13:28
positive GDP report that showed 2.7%
00:13:32
growth that report would later be
00:13:34
revised up to
00:13:35
3.9% growth so the recession was
00:13:38
definitely over and the economy is
00:13:39
growing again and nonetheless Bush lost
00:13:42
because voters impressions of the
00:13:45
economy had already formed and
00:13:48
solidified by the final week of the
00:13:50
campaign so I think it's probably too
00:13:52
late here for the GDP numbers to have a
00:13:55
big impact on the election I think the
00:13:57
other thing is that voters impression of
00:14:01
this economy isn't based so much on the
00:14:04
GDP numbers it's really based on their
00:14:07
perception of inflation over the last
00:14:09
four years and there's no question that
00:14:11
cost of living has increased a lot over
00:14:13
the last four years and voters are
00:14:15
really feeling that and that I think is
00:14:17
is playing into their perceptions of the
00:14:19
economy and I don't think that Harris
00:14:23
has a great answer for that so so I
00:14:25
think the the bottom line here is I
00:14:28
don't think this report going have a big
00:14:29
impact on on the election in terms of
00:14:32
where the economy is going the the thing
00:14:35
that I would come back to is interest
00:14:37
rates and this is the thing that
00:14:38
freeberg was talking about which is even
00:14:41
though the FED has cut rates by 50 basis
00:14:44
points the long-term rates the 10-year
00:14:46
treasury has not gone down in fact it's
00:14:49
gone up slightly you know it's gone up
00:14:51
to call it
00:14:52
4.3% and so we have this real issue
00:14:55
where as the FED is cutting short rates
00:14:58
long r rates are not going down and I
00:15:00
think that is because of the government
00:15:02
deficit and the government debt and the
00:15:04
fact that there's so much debt that
00:15:07
needs to be serviced by the bondet
00:15:10
market for treasuries just the the
00:15:12
buyers are all leaving the market for
00:15:13
treasuries the Chinese we talked about
00:15:15
this last week have been selling down
00:15:16
their treasury position there just
00:15:18
aren't buyers anymore which is and I
00:15:21
think this could this could ultimately
00:15:22
have a very detrimental effect on the
00:15:24
economy you already saw that I think uh
00:15:26
this hasn't been widely reported but I
00:15:29
think it should be a major piece of news
00:15:31
which is the prime rate hit 8% today so
00:15:36
it now it had a seven handle on it
00:15:37
before and now has an eight handle on it
00:15:39
well this matters a lot if you want to
00:15:42
buy a house and get a
00:15:44
mortgage it's much more expensive then
00:15:47
you got to think about all the people
00:15:49
who already have debt doesn't this look
00:15:52
recessionary totally because a few years
00:15:54
ago you could get a a home loan at a 3
00:15:58
to 4% interest rate you know and
00:16:01
amortize that now your debt service
00:16:03
costs can to be twice as high so you
00:16:06
just can't buy as much house it's a very
00:16:08
bad place if the economy is in the
00:16:10
toilet but we can't even talk about it
00:16:12
because there is no structural way to
00:16:14
get an accurate read because the
00:16:17
government
00:16:18
just perverts the effect it has in the
00:16:22
economy like have yeah Distortion fine
00:16:26
you you cannot have a nonprofit entity
00:16:30
representing the plurality of the
00:16:32
economic activity of a country and
00:16:35
expect the capital markets to function
00:16:38
properly at some point the capital
00:16:39
markets will basically throw their hands
00:16:41
up in the air and puke it all out and
00:16:43
say no and I think that you're starting
00:16:46
to see a little bit of these fissures so
00:16:48
I think we're going to have to clean up
00:16:49
our balance sheet pretty aggressively
00:16:51
here yeah and if you look at the
00:16:53
importance of that rate that rate drives
00:16:56
the value of bonds as the current market
00:16:59
rate for treasuries or for the prime
00:17:01
rate climbs the value of a existing bond
00:17:06
that pays interest at a lower rate goes
00:17:08
down because you have to pay a lower
00:17:10
basis in order to get back to the new
00:17:12
high rate that the market is telling you
00:17:15
so there are several trillion dollars
00:17:17
and we can pull up the the graph here
00:17:19
Nick of loans and bonds that are sitting
00:17:21
on the balance sheets of many commercial
00:17:23
banks in the United States that are now
00:17:26
so significantly underwater
00:17:29
where the value is now below the book
00:17:31
that they paid for those loans or that
00:17:33
they issued them at that those Banks now
00:17:36
have unrealized losses and I think that
00:17:39
this number is one of the other kind of
00:17:40
facts you see a few articles come out
00:17:42
here and there about this but the number
00:17:44
as the rates go up the number of
00:17:46
unrealized losses but the dollar value
00:17:48
the unrealized losses at Banks balance
00:17:49
sheets in the United States has climbed
00:17:51
so considerably that it represents a
00:17:53
real crisis in fact the unrealized
00:17:55
losses on banks balance sheets today is
00:17:57
higher than it was 8 it's trillions it's
00:18:00
trillions Buffett warned
00:18:02
BFA public he's been selling off he sold
00:18:05
off right B well he warned BFA publicly
00:18:08
although a bit
00:18:10
obliquely last year
00:18:13
during his annual conference and it was
00:18:16
very clear it's like listen this is an
00:18:18
opportunity for folks to just Mark to
00:18:19
Market these Securities properly and or
00:18:22
sell them and get them off the books I
00:18:24
don't think B OFA acted quickly enough
00:18:26
and so what did Buffett do he just
00:18:27
basically started dumping and he's
00:18:30
almost completely out of B BFA if not
00:18:32
completely out altogether
00:18:34
so there's a lot of talk a crisis of
00:18:37
brewing there's a lot of talk in fin twt
00:18:40
if you go into sort of like the the Deep
00:18:42
far-reaching bowels of of the of the
00:18:45
Fint community on X that there is a huge
00:18:48
credit crisis looming amongst some of
00:18:49
these
00:18:51
large Charter holding Banks because of
00:18:53
this exact issue and the relation
00:18:55
between the fed and the prime is
00:18:58
typically 3% so the FED Cuts rates and
00:19:02
then the banks put 3% on top of it when
00:19:04
they give people creditworthy people
00:19:06
mortgages and credit cards so as the FED
00:19:09
Cuts this should come down but if it
00:19:12
went up what explains that I'm curious
00:19:14
if anybody knows well the FED sets short
00:19:17
rates it sets the the FED funds rate
00:19:19
which is the the rate of overnight
00:19:21
lending between Banks but it does not
00:19:23
set the 10year treasury for example the
00:19:26
long-term the market set Market
00:19:29
and the market now requires a higher
00:19:32
rate of interest in order to accept you
00:19:34
know the risk of investing in those
00:19:36
bonds or it's not really since it's a US
00:19:40
Treasury it's not really risk it's more
00:19:41
about the time value of money and their
00:19:45
expectations of inflation how much that
00:19:47
money is going to be worth in the future
00:19:49
so I think what we're seeing is that the
00:19:51
FED can cut short-term rates but it
00:19:53
hasn't had the impact on long-term rates
00:19:56
that everyone was expecting I think
00:19:57
everyone was expecting
00:19:59
that we had this sort of um burst in
00:20:01
inflation the famous 9% inflation rate I
00:20:04
think people were expecting that that
00:20:05
would work its way through the system
00:20:07
and that we'd get long-term rates back
00:20:09
to where they were but that's not
00:20:11
happening and it's not happening for the
00:20:13
reason we're saying which is there's
00:20:13
just too much debt out there so now
00:20:15
think about the impact on the real
00:20:18
economy let's say that you're a home
00:20:20
buyer and you got like a five-year
00:20:23
interest only arm type mortgage for your
00:20:27
house Tick Tock yeah so now you know you
00:20:30
probably got that in the 3 to 4% range
00:20:33
if you have to refinance it this year at
00:20:35
8% your monthly payment's going to
00:20:38
double that has a real impact on
00:20:40
people's wealth and on their spending
00:20:43
power maybe they can't even support a
00:20:46
payment like that now go over to the
00:20:48
commercial side and it's it's very
00:20:50
similar there's a lot of commercial real
00:20:52
estate out there you know buildings and
00:20:54
so on where they've got debt on it you
00:20:57
can't get 30-year mortgages and
00:20:59
Commercial the typical commercial loan
00:21:01
is 5 to seven years okay we're now
00:21:05
coming up I think in the next few years
00:21:07
on a lot of that that debt will need to
00:21:09
roll it'll need to be refinanced if it
00:21:11
gets refinanced at twice the interest
00:21:15
cost roughly a lot of those buildings
00:21:18
may be underwater I mean they may not be
00:21:20
you know in there may be no equity value
00:21:23
and a lot of people know this now but
00:21:25
they don't really have to mark those
00:21:26
positions to mark it if they did their
00:21:29
zero but they're kind of all on borrow
00:21:32
time right now hoping that rates will go
00:21:34
back down and what we're seeing is that
00:21:37
the long rates are not going back down
00:21:39
it's a pretty scary proposition and then
00:21:40
of course you know a lot of the the debt
00:21:42
on those buildings it's all owned by the
00:21:44
commercial banks that you're talking
00:21:45
about the regional Banks so they're
00:21:47
sitting on a lot of bad debt that they
00:21:50
haven't had to Mark to Market and
00:21:51
they're just kind of hoping that this
00:21:53
problem will get sorted out before you
00:21:56
know before there's a default
00:21:59
and by the way as these numbers climb
00:22:01
the cost to borrow for the federal
00:22:03
government climbs so the new bonds we
00:22:05
have to reissue a good percent I think
00:22:07
nearly $10 trillion doll I think of our
00:22:08
debt has to be reissued in the next year
00:22:11
that's going to get reissued now at this
00:22:13
higher rate and that higher rate means
00:22:15
that the annual expense just to pay the
00:22:17
interest on the existing debt is now
00:22:19
climbing at a faster rate and that means
00:22:22
you've got to issue more debt to pay for
00:22:24
your interest on your current debt it's
00:22:26
quite paradoxical that the FED sets that
00:22:28
rate right well this this becomes the
00:22:31
compounding problem when your G your
00:22:33
debt to GDP reaches a certain level and
00:22:36
you don't reduce federal spending fast
00:22:38
enough it becomes a compounding problem
00:22:40
you cannot get away from and this has
00:22:42
been the beginning of the cataclysmic
00:22:44
economic collapse of every great Empire
00:22:46
in the last 500 years I know I've said
00:22:48
this you guys can joke about it all day
00:22:49
long but this is how it starts is it
00:22:51
starts at a point where you're at
00:22:52
rithmetic not able to get out of your
00:22:54
debt spiral and uh the markets are
00:22:56
telling us that if the US doesn't
00:22:58
drastic action in reducing it spending
00:23:01
and reducing the deficit levels so that
00:23:03
we can actually address the payment
00:23:04
obligations on the outstanding debt that
00:23:06
we've already issued the US dollar is
00:23:08
going to have a real problem and the
00:23:10
creditworthiness of the United States is
00:23:12
challenged that's what the market says
00:23:13
but I know that there's other issues
00:23:15
with the fact that there's no other
00:23:16
better place to put money today and
00:23:17
there's not a lot of other you know
00:23:19
great economies out there and so on and
00:23:21
so forth but the stability of the United
00:23:23
States the hegemony of the United States
00:23:24
and the dollar is challenged in part by
00:23:27
the fact that you've got this bricks or
00:23:28
gation out there now that has greater
00:23:30
GDP and aggregate than the US and so
00:23:32
there may be an alternative that emerges
00:23:34
in the next couple years and maybe
00:23:35
everyone's kind of putting their assets
00:23:37
away in in gold and and other and
00:23:40
Bitcoin and other stuff while they're
00:23:41
waiting for the transition to find
00:23:42
another place to buy we'll see all right
00:23:45
well but what it what it implies if if
00:23:47
rates have roughly doubled let's say in
00:23:50
the last few years and they're going to
00:23:52
stay at that level they're not going
00:23:54
back down it implies there's going to be
00:23:56
a big deleveraging right because
00:23:59
you know you can't support those
00:24:01
interest payments I mean let's say that
00:24:02
you own a building right and now all
00:24:05
well tax that's it's actually
00:24:07
deleveraging or inflation because the
00:24:10
alternative is the fed monetizes the
00:24:12
debt they start buying all the bonds
00:24:13
which means you're pumping more US
00:24:14
Dollars into the market and that means
00:24:16
that the cost of everything goes through
00:24:18
the roof so you have this effect of
00:24:19
economic inflation which is the way that
00:24:21
you inflate away the debt problem
00:24:24
assuming people still want to use your
00:24:25
currency yeah well I mean that's at the
00:24:27
government level I mean I was talking
00:24:28
about the the private sector I mean just
00:24:30
think about it at the level of like an
00:24:32
individual building you've got a loan on
00:24:33
it now you need to refinance the loan
00:24:35
interest rates are twice as high that
00:24:38
let's say that that doesn't the building
00:24:40
no longer produces operating income at
00:24:41
that level of debt so you have to pay
00:24:44
down some of your debt it's called an
00:24:46
equity in refinancing where you're not
00:24:48
pulling money out you're putting money
00:24:49
in you have to deleverage in order to
00:24:51
make your sort of income statement work
00:24:53
right it's just too much debt at at that
00:24:55
new level of interest rates so if rates
00:24:58
stay high there's no choice but for many
00:25:01
people to delever whether it's on the
00:25:03
commercial side or the or or on the
00:25:06
consumer side you just can't afford as
00:25:09
much debt right at that higher interest
00:25:11
rate so think about the impact that has
00:25:13
on the economy when everyone has to
00:25:15
delever that's a very negative effect
00:25:18
and then of course you like you're
00:25:20
saying at the government level you have
00:25:22
to figure out what to do about that
00:25:24
because our interest payments on the
00:25:25
debt are already what 20 to 25% of
00:25:28
federal revenue yeah it's about trillion
00:25:30
five
00:25:32
trillion so you already see there where
00:25:34
there's less money to spend on current
00:25:36
programs because you're paying for
00:25:39
interest on the debt so what do you do
00:25:41
about that so I I think that the next
00:25:43
president's going to face a pretty
00:25:45
wicked set of problems in tradeoffs here
00:25:47
even though the GDP numbers are fine
00:25:49
they're good I still think there's like
00:25:51
a wicked set of problems related to
00:25:53
government debt and interest rates yeah
00:25:56
and there's no way to really skin this
00:25:58
without some some I think there yeah
00:26:00
there there I think the only path is you
00:26:03
have to cut spending which is
00:26:05
recessionary government spending which
00:26:07
is recessionary so you're going to
00:26:08
trigger an economic recession you're
00:26:10
going to have to have some amount of
00:26:11
inflation and you're going to have to
00:26:13
have a spike in unemployment and if you
00:26:14
don't do the first two things you're
00:26:15
gonna have a lot more inflation which is
00:26:18
really hard to get out of so well I I
00:26:20
agree agree we have doesn't seem to be a
00:26:21
win a win win scenario here there's
00:26:23
there's no yeah I agree we have to cut
00:26:26
government spending I don't I personally
00:26:27
don't think it's recessionary I think it
00:26:28
helps the private sector When government
00:26:29
gets cut right uh however because Sachs
00:26:33
that means seor gets to service that
00:26:37
function the government won't be
00:26:38
consuming all these resources that the
00:26:40
private sector could use better it also
00:26:42
won't have as many government
00:26:44
bureaucrats acting as break pedals on
00:26:46
the private sector so I tend to think
00:26:48
that the government the the real economy
00:26:50
will perform better with a smaller
00:26:52
government however I I think the reason
00:26:55
why it won't happen is because it's
00:26:57
politically difficult it's extremely
00:26:59
difficult to cut spending politically
00:27:01
right right well I mean as we saw this
00:27:03
cycle every single proposal seemed to be
00:27:07
a payoff to different constituencies it
00:27:09
was like right CAU in the budget somehow
00:27:13
right somebody somebody fought for every
00:27:15
single line item in the budget some
00:27:17
special interest and they're going to
00:27:19
fight like hell to keep their
00:27:20
appropriation it's not even special
00:27:22
interest it's the representatives in
00:27:25
Congress doing their job which is to
00:27:27
fight for their con getting their fair
00:27:29
share or their Fair shake at the money
00:27:31
that's being spent and that's just the
00:27:33
way that the legislative branch has
00:27:35
evolved over time if someone's getting
00:27:37
something in order for me to vote for it
00:27:39
I want to get something too and so the
00:27:40
whole thing over time becomes
00:27:42
functionally
00:27:43
inflationary right I think that whole
00:27:46
shell game might just be over now
00:27:47
because there's no more money left I
00:27:49
mean it's all been spent in fact you
00:27:52
know what I mean so like all the federal
00:27:54
government probably will end up doing in
00:27:57
the near future is entitlements and
00:28:00
defense that's it because those are the
00:28:02
core core functions of the federal
00:28:04
government I think everything else
00:28:05
that's that's sort of quote unquote
00:28:07
discretionary is probably GNA get cut
00:28:09
because there's no more money left
00:28:11
tragedy of the commons folks uh
00:28:13
everybody acting in their self-interest
00:28:15
and yeah not a lot of coordination or
00:28:18
ability to win office if you actually do
00:28:21
what's in everybody's Collective best
00:28:23
interest and take the medicine moving on
00:28:25
through the docket Tech earnings this
00:28:27
week Google had a great quarter let's go
00:28:30
over that a bit here you're all mamada
00:28:33
freeberg they beat Top Line and bottom
00:28:35
line stock popped 5% looks like cloud
00:28:38
and YouTube are the story here total
00:28:41
revenue let this sink in
00:28:43
88.3 billion up 15% year-over-year
00:28:46
search was uh 49 billion of that and uh
00:28:51
their operating income is now up 34%
00:28:54
year-over-year I think the CFO is
00:28:56
getting some work done there 28 .5
00:28:58
billion and net income was
00:29:01
26.3 billion interestingly people are
00:29:05
expecting even larger profits they got a
00:29:07
new CFO over there who said they could
00:29:10
push a little further on cost cutting
00:29:12
and she said the company will use AI to
00:29:14
cut costs by streamlining workflows and
00:29:17
managing headcount physical footprint I
00:29:20
think that means more layoffs are coming
00:29:22
to Big Tech YouTube had a tremendous
00:29:24
quarter add Revenue 8.9 billion jamath
00:29:27
that's up 12% % but Sundar said
00:29:30
something interesting he said YouTube
00:29:31
surpassed 50 billion in total revenue
00:29:33
over the past year and so if you do a
00:29:37
little uh B math that's the back of the
00:29:40
envelope math for those of you at
00:29:42
home who haven't heard that acronym
00:29:45
Google doesn't report YouTube's not add
00:29:47
Revenue but we know YouTube had 35
00:29:49
billion in add Revenue over the last
00:29:51
year that means they're doing about 15
00:29:53
billion in premium paid products YouTube
00:29:57
TV NFL Sunday Ticket YouTube premium
00:29:59
which is the greatest product ever takes
00:30:01
ads out of YouTube and makes it usable
00:30:04
so 7030 split Cloud had a blowout
00:30:07
quarter Google Cloud I see that all the
00:30:09
time now 11.4 billion in revenue on 35%
00:30:15
annual growth with 1.9 billion in
00:30:17
operating profit I mean it's printing
00:30:19
money there are seven quasi monopolies
00:30:22
in the
00:30:23
world they're all American and if we
00:30:27
allow them to flourish will be good if
00:30:30
we hamper them a little bit and allow
00:30:34
other companies to pick up the whites
00:30:36
space will be great over to you okay
00:30:39
there's your that's called analysis
00:30:43
Cham and if we break them
00:30:45
up I think that you'll have a lot more
00:30:48
the the sum is greater than the parts I
00:30:51
mean clearly YouTube would be one of the
00:30:53
great companies right now you take the
00:30:55
perspective of
00:30:58
if you own stock in any of these
00:31:01
companies the some of the parts analysis
00:31:03
would tell you that the breakup value is
00:31:05
greater than the way that these
00:31:07
companies get discounted you can look at
00:31:09
the multiples that they trade at and you
00:31:12
can see that so if you're a shareholder
00:31:14
of the company you actually silently
00:31:16
probably want them broken up because
00:31:18
you'll get individual shares that are
00:31:19
each will be worth more separately if
00:31:22
you are a shareholder of the United
00:31:24
States economy you also probably want
00:31:27
them broken up because then you'll just
00:31:29
have many more companies creating
00:31:30
economic value which then drives the tax
00:31:34
roles which benefit the United States
00:31:37
balance sheet it's hard to see unless
00:31:39
you're an employee of the company or you
00:31:42
derive a lot
00:31:44
of ego from the existence of a company
00:31:47
the way it is that you would need it to
00:31:49
stay where how it is well let me
00:31:51
challenge your point on two fronts in
00:31:53
Google's case both YouTube and gcp
00:31:56
required many many many many billions of
00:31:59
dollars of investment over many years
00:32:01
same with weo by the way at this point
00:32:04
that took a long time and a lot of
00:32:06
capital to get the payback on if those
00:32:08
were Standalone businesses and they
00:32:10
didn't have the profits being derived
00:32:12
from search and ads over many years they
00:32:15
would not have been able to build those
00:32:17
incredible businesses so if you do break
00:32:19
these businesses up what you do lose is
00:32:21
the ability for an American Juggernaut
00:32:24
to be able just like Amazon did with AWS
00:32:26
and apple did and we can go through the
00:32:28
list to build these new businesses that
00:32:31
require the cash flows from the old
00:32:33
businesses as separate companies it
00:32:35
becomes much harder to make that degree
00:32:37
of an investment that that angle that
00:32:39
angle of belly aching is not going to
00:32:41
pass muster because it's all about
00:32:43
litigating the past and you got to play
00:32:46
the ball where it lies where it lies is
00:32:48
this business is in a position where you
00:32:50
can probably demarcate four or five
00:32:53
logical business units again I'm not
00:32:55
saying it should Happ but it will happen
00:32:57
and and the the argument of but the past
00:33:00
is not going to work no no no I'm not
00:33:01
yeah I'm not disagreeing with your point
00:33:02
about like hey if these things broke up
00:33:04
people would make money I'm just I'm
00:33:06
just trying to understand this point
00:33:07
about American dynamism or whatever you
00:33:09
want to call it that these companies are
00:33:11
all in America they've all been
00:33:12
successful because they've been led by
00:33:14
amazing Founders they've reinvested so
00:33:16
much of the profit they've generated
00:33:18
back into building insane new businesses
00:33:21
that took a lot of capital and a lot of
00:33:22
time and eventually they paid off and
00:33:24
they became the next generation of
00:33:26
ginormous new businesses that would not
00:33:28
have possibly existed if not for the
00:33:30
will and the cash flows coming from
00:33:32
those old businesses you also have a
00:33:34
companion economy in the capital markets
00:33:36
where there's hundreds of billions of
00:33:37
dollars that go and fill in the gaps and
00:33:39
I think the reality is the people in the
00:33:42
capital markets are not stupid and if
00:33:44
these big companies hadn't spent
00:33:45
hundreds of billions of dollars the
00:33:47
capital markets would have so I don't
00:33:49
gole if Google let's just play a
00:33:51
scenario and I'm I'm not trying to
00:33:53
relitigate the past but if Google did
00:33:54
not own YouTube what do you think would
00:33:56
have happened you would have gotten
00:33:58
funded and it would have been fine it
00:34:00
would have raised the billions buil the
00:34:02
because you do you remember YouTube had
00:34:03
a real infastructure serious lawsuit I
00:34:06
think they would have shut down the
00:34:07
reason is
00:34:08
because people are smart enough to
00:34:12
understand when then there's the
00:34:13
potential to make money okay and the
00:34:16
free markets do a really good job of
00:34:18
highlighting where that's
00:34:20
possible again there is no point Rel
00:34:22
litigating this but I
00:34:25
think yeah gcp AWS get funded with
00:34:28
billion yeah I guess that's what open is
00:34:30
right why does why does cor weave get
00:34:32
funded today how is cor weave allowed to
00:34:34
even exist why doesn't it all go because
00:34:37
investors are smart they see that
00:34:39
there's an economic rationale for there
00:34:41
being multiple players and then there's
00:34:43
a smart founding team that creates a
00:34:46
justification that gets it going so the
00:34:49
era of the monopolies Monopoly on
00:34:52
building new monopolies is
00:34:54
over I don't think it's I don't think
00:34:56
it's ever existed but I think the point
00:34:58
is that big businesses are there to
00:35:01
eventually grow at GDP so that they can
00:35:03
be disrupted by small companies that's
00:35:06
what you want because if you had the
00:35:08
same seven or eight companies then you
00:35:09
could make the argument that we should
00:35:11
have stopped at the East West India
00:35:12
company and everything would have been
00:35:14
great I mean it is what we did with the
00:35:17
railroads it's what we did with the AT&T
00:35:20
it's what we did with standard oil like
00:35:22
when when these when these monopolies
00:35:24
were built in the US they were all
00:35:25
broken up and but hold on it's not
00:35:26
necessarily what we did it's the
00:35:28
conditions that enabled other people to
00:35:30
then go fill the gaps and I think that
00:35:32
that's economic boundary conditions you
00:35:34
know Saks had this great tweet this past
00:35:36
week and I almost quote tweeted it but I
00:35:40
thought I don't want to create a lot
00:35:41
more noise where there doesn't need to
00:35:43
be Zach is paying attention now but he
00:35:46
had this tweet about taking back the
00:35:48
licenses for the main broadcast channels
00:35:51
and I thought that was an excellent
00:35:53
thing and I quote tweeted something
00:35:55
where I was like yeah we should buy that
00:35:57
that for all in and I said it half
00:36:00
jokingly but I didn't because I think
00:36:03
that if those licenses were up for grabs
00:36:05
what would happen is a bunch of private
00:36:07
Equity people would get behind Rogan a
00:36:10
bunch of private Equity people would get
00:36:11
behind us and we would all bid and the
00:36:14
outcome would be better so the point is
00:36:17
that these small structural changes and
00:36:19
I know that it may seem large to break
00:36:23
up Google it's not it's a small thing in
00:36:25
the grand course of American businesses
00:36:27
it's not going to really matter that
00:36:30
much would be good generally through the
00:36:33
lens of the individual shareholder and
00:36:35
through the lens of the shareholder of
00:36:36
the United States that's it sax can you
00:36:38
tell us about the broadcast licensing
00:36:41
comment that you made I thought it was
00:36:43
actually pretty good too yeah there's a
00:36:44
history to this I mean originally in the
00:36:46
US we had three major broadcast networks
00:36:50
ABC CBS MBC and they were given licenses
00:36:54
of public Spectrum from the FCC and
00:36:57
those licenses were free but in exchange
00:36:59
for them the major broadcast networks
00:37:01
had these various requirements to serve
00:37:04
the public interest to be fair this was
00:37:06
pre pre- cable and this was broadcast
00:37:09
this goes back like a hundred years and
00:37:11
just to be it's I think it's important
00:37:13
to be clear because I I I don't think
00:37:14
everyone understands that back in the
00:37:16
day all the TV networks only broadcast
00:37:19
over the air so they needed radio
00:37:21
spectrum allocated to them to to do that
00:37:24
which was a you know 100-year old kind
00:37:25
of that's a 100-year Old Situation
00:37:27
doesn't exist anymore sorry go yeah it
00:37:29
was the only way to get information
00:37:31
broadcast on TV was through this this
00:37:35
public
00:37:36
spectrum and so it kind of made sense in
00:37:39
a world in which there were only three
00:37:41
networks because that was the only way
00:37:43
to get information to have these
00:37:46
fairness requirements and public
00:37:48
interest requirements and so it was
00:37:50
heavily regulated well now it's a
00:37:52
century later and there's so many ways
00:37:54
to get information you've got cable
00:37:58
obviously meant that we went from three
00:38:00
or four networks to hundreds and then of
00:38:04
course you've got the internet and
00:38:05
you've got streaming so there's now an
00:38:08
infinite number of ways to get
00:38:10
information in real
00:38:12
time including video and and that sort
00:38:15
of thing you've also got social networks
00:38:17
you've got X and all the rest so there's
00:38:20
no shelf
00:38:21
space limit anymore there's no scarcity
00:38:24
and so therefore tying up this very
00:38:27
valuable Spectrum by giving it for free
00:38:30
to the to the broadcast networks just
00:38:32
doesn't really make sense in the same
00:38:34
way and what we should do is just
00:38:37
auction off the Spectrum use the money
00:38:40
to pay down the national debt and and in
00:38:44
that way it'll go to its most highly
00:38:46
valued use the market will figure out
00:38:48
what that use is if the broadcast
00:38:51
networks are the most highly valued way
00:38:53
to use this spectrum then they'll win
00:38:55
the auction but I suspect they won't
00:38:57
exactly they did this auction in 2016
00:39:00
right for 15 years they've been
00:39:01
gradually auctioning off more Spectrum
00:39:04
but we're talking about here this is
00:39:06
like the most Choice valuable part of of
00:39:09
public Spectrum so for
00:39:11
example one of the reasons
00:39:14
why the spectrum is valuable is because
00:39:17
it can easily go through walls right
00:39:18
like you can watch your TV inside your
00:39:21
house and yeah this broadcast spectrum
00:39:23
is good at getting through those walls
00:39:25
imagine the types of GPS apps you could
00:39:29
enable with that kind of precision right
00:39:31
so there's many other ways in theory
00:39:34
that this spectrum could be used and you
00:39:36
would be able to unleash I think a lot
00:39:38
of innovation in Next Generation
00:39:41
Wireless apps if the Spectrum were
00:39:43
available I don't think the public would
00:39:45
lose anything because ABC CBS NBC first
00:39:49
of all I mean these networks are
00:39:50
basically a commodity now there's so
00:39:52
many other ways to getting used and
00:39:53
they'll still be available through the
00:39:55
internet and through cable so you're
00:39:57
saying
00:39:59
to speed up these auctions because they
00:40:01
do occur every 15 years or something to
00:40:03
that I think what happens is that the um
00:40:06
the licenses are actually granted to
00:40:08
local stations like your you know your
00:40:11
local ABC
00:40:15
whatever yeah and then collectively they
00:40:17
have a Lobby called the NAB or National
00:40:20
Association of broadcasters and this is
00:40:22
why they have so much power is you've
00:40:24
got all these local networks let's call
00:40:26
three or four of them in every geography
00:40:28
and they all come together as part of
00:40:29
this Lobby and so this is why nothing
00:40:32
ever changes but does this model still
00:40:34
make sense no I mean it's completely
00:40:36
obsolete but those local networks will
00:40:39
all go crazy if they lose their free
00:40:42
Spectrum well they pay for it they don't
00:40:45
they don't pay for it now they get a a
00:40:46
free license from the FCC in exchange
00:40:48
for the fairness requirement and these
00:40:51
other requirements I think that they pay
00:40:54
billions of dollars for these and like
00:40:56
hundreds
00:40:58
no every six years or so they come back
00:41:00
up and they get renewed by the FCC H I
00:41:03
was just talking about the Spectrum
00:41:05
auctions I'm looking at it right now
00:41:06
that's different yeah
00:41:08
okay all right interesting no look the
00:41:11
the FCC has auction Spectrum before but
00:41:13
not the spectrum that the broadcast
00:41:16
networks are sitting on which is some of
00:41:17
the most valuable Spectrum got it and
00:41:20
the only reason why it's being used this
00:41:22
way is because of Legacy because this is
00:41:25
how it worked 100 years ago well and
00:41:28
then this parallels into I think some of
00:41:29
the research that's going on right now
00:41:32
around Legacy Media and Trust in Media
00:41:35
bunch of reports have been coming out
00:41:38
about this it's not shocking to anybody
00:41:39
who listens to this podcast but
00:41:41
confidence in institutions is tracked by
00:41:44
a number of different organizations
00:41:46
Gallup being one of them and if we look
00:41:50
at how Americans feel and Trust has
00:41:52
generally been going down in
00:41:55
everything the military
00:41:57
it's also being it's also being tracked
00:41:59
in the wapo upad section yeah exactly
00:42:03
are you g pull that up jcal do you have
00:42:05
that or no uh we'll talk about that yeah
00:42:08
but here if you take a look at from 2021
00:42:11
2022 and into
00:42:13
2023 television news went from 16 down
00:42:17
to 11 and back up to 14 but is amongst
00:42:20
the
00:42:22
lowest in terms of trust
00:42:25
in and 40% of Americans have no Trust in
00:42:30
Media at all according to this Galla
00:42:31
poll here's uh how it breaks down by
00:42:36
party Republican independent and
00:42:38
Democrats confidence by the Democrats
00:42:41
58% Independence
00:42:44
29% Republicans
00:42:47
11% in mass media your thoughts fredberg
00:42:50
as we look at just trust in general in
00:42:54
institutions this transitionary period
00:42:57
we in and specifically the
00:42:58
media I do think we've talked about this
00:43:01
a number of times in the past so without
00:43:03
rehashing too much I think that many of
00:43:06
the
00:43:07
institutions that have offered media
00:43:09
have had to move away from providing
00:43:12
data and information because data and
00:43:13
information has commoditized it's
00:43:15
available broadly through the internet
00:43:16
and other places so the actual Gathering
00:43:19
of information is now democratized you
00:43:22
know agencies put their data on their
00:43:24
website stock stock markets are
00:43:25
published on the internet so the
00:43:26
internet has democratized access to
00:43:28
information so the media companies that
00:43:30
have historically been Arbiters of
00:43:32
information have had to become
00:43:35
effectively content businesses they've
00:43:37
had to provide more than just
00:43:39
information and what has happened is a
00:43:42
iterative feedback system whereby the
00:43:45
more kind of angry they can make someone
00:43:49
the more upset they can make someone the
00:43:51
the more emotive they can make a reader
00:43:53
or a viewer or a listener the more
00:43:56
clicks they the more the kind of lyic
00:43:59
system triggers that consumer to come
00:44:01
back and consume some more of their
00:44:02
media and so the iterative development
00:44:04
cycle is that things look like they're
00:44:06
one side versus another side in nearly
00:44:08
every context in every piece of media
00:44:10
everyone is opinionated and making a
00:44:13
position point from a side from a
00:44:15
perceived side that they are
00:44:17
representing because it is a motive to
00:44:19
the readers and the readers come back
00:44:20
and they align with that side and they
00:44:21
want to have more of that because it
00:44:23
incites their limic system that's what
00:44:25
happened and as as a result when people
00:44:28
look at it and assume that it's what it
00:44:29
used to be which is objective truth fact
00:44:31
finding information gathering and it is
00:44:33
not that they're like well this isn't
00:44:35
even news anymore and the truth is it's
00:44:37
not because information is democratized
00:44:40
it's available to you anywhere and
00:44:41
everywhere you want it you can get it
00:44:43
through citizen journalism via blogs via
00:44:46
podcasts via Twitter via many other
00:44:48
places and so the the Legacy Media
00:44:51
companies have effectively become
00:44:52
emotive content companies in order to
00:44:55
drive clicks Drive views sell ads that's
00:44:57
really all this whole story is and I
00:44:59
don't think that that's going to shift I
00:45:00
don't think that Jeff bezos's attempt to
00:45:02
try and return wapo back to being a
00:45:05
fact-f finding organization is going to
00:45:06
be successful I think all the consumers
00:45:08
that read wo today they love the
00:45:10
one-sided nature they love the bias that
00:45:13
they read it makes them feel good I
00:45:15
think that the people that work there
00:45:16
love the bias they love writing those
00:45:18
opinion pieces it makes them feel good I
00:45:20
don't think anyone actually wants boring
00:45:22
news anymore because you know what they
00:45:23
can go to a website from the government
00:45:26
itself or from a company itself and just
00:45:27
read the information and frankly if they
00:45:30
want to get unbiased honest factual
00:45:32
information there's a hundred other
00:45:33
sources well and then here the
00:45:35
commentary the comment yeah the
00:45:36
commentary about off the cuff Etc you
00:45:39
know what that is that's called
00:45:40
authentic conversation that is how
00:45:43
people speak when we all get together we
00:45:45
are not journalists we are not
00:45:47
necessarily well-versed let's be honest
00:45:49
we mess things up a lot we say off the
00:45:51
cuff comments that are wrong very often
00:45:53
but that's just how people speak and it
00:45:55
feels authentic and when we do have
00:45:57
signal I think that listeners and
00:45:59
viewers are smart enough to separate
00:46:00
that signal from noise and they are
00:46:02
going to make their own decisions about
00:46:04
what they find to be truth and factual
00:46:07
and what they're going to use to make
00:46:08
decisions in their life and that's I
00:46:09
think how people want to consume
00:46:11
information now it's not being told what
00:46:13
the truth is by some fake Authority and
00:46:16
here is a clip from the podcast last
00:46:19
year podcast could play a huge role just
00:46:21
like in 2016 social media broke through
00:46:23
and played a huge role I think in 2024 I
00:46:27
think that podcast could break
00:46:29
through the way that unorthodox
00:46:31
candidates get their message out could
00:46:33
be the way all candidates get their
00:46:34
message out we're moving from
00:46:37
traditional media defining these
00:46:39
candidates to direct to Consumer direct
00:46:42
through Twitter SLX direct through
00:46:44
podcasts this podcast included what
00:46:47
we're witnessing right now is the
00:46:48
transition from traditional media and
00:46:50
the establishment defining who the great
00:46:53
candidates are to the public and the
00:46:56
people on podcast in social media who
00:46:57
are the tip of the spear and the
00:46:59
Vanguard they're going to pick the
00:47:01
winners I love you both you guys totally
00:47:03
nailed it look at that sax your thoughts
00:47:06
on this sort of transition
00:47:08
interestingly as we know Rogan had Trump
00:47:11
on over 40 million views now I think
00:47:13
they're up to 100 million views now for
00:47:15
that Rogan Trump interview oh including
00:47:18
the fact that you literally could not
00:47:19
find it if you search for it in Google
00:47:21
or YouTube it's quite amaz well we'll
00:47:22
get to that in a second yeah that's an
00:47:24
interesting one I got to take on that
00:47:25
but what do you take from
00:47:28
Rogan getting let's say many more views
00:47:32
than the last two presidential debates
00:47:35
Trump Harris 67 million viewers Trump
00:47:37
Biden 51 million viewers I think maybe
00:47:40
Rogan combined with his two episodes
00:47:44
will get more than the first two debates
00:47:48
yeah look I think this is the first
00:47:49
podcast election where you can make the
00:47:52
argument that podcasts will decide the
00:47:54
election and there's a couple of reasons
00:47:56
for that one is podcasts have gotten big
00:47:58
enough that there's enough audience that
00:48:00
they just have the reach now to play a
00:48:02
big role second the format is is highly
00:48:07
informative to viewers you get to see a
00:48:09
candidate expound in long form being
00:48:13
asked questions and having to go for
00:48:15
potentially hours at a time I mean Trump
00:48:17
went for three hours with Rogan impress
00:48:20
and it's very hard to hide who you are
00:48:22
when you're going for that period of
00:48:24
time in an unscripted environment I
00:48:26
would argue even the hour that Trump
00:48:28
spent with us demonstrated that he knew
00:48:32
a lot more about policy issues than
00:48:34
people were giving him credit for and
00:48:35
it's and it also showed his personality
00:48:38
was a lot different than the media had
00:48:39
portrayed him so I think that podcasts
00:48:42
have been a great Advantage for Trump
00:48:45
he's been willing to do them and I think
00:48:47
he does them quite well I think it's
00:48:50
particularly helpful to him in a context
00:48:52
where the Legacy Media has been trying
00:48:55
to portray him as a very extreme figure
00:48:58
as as literally a Nazi or literally The
00:49:01
Reincarnation of Adolf Hitler when the
00:49:03
media is is telling the audience that
00:49:05
you're that and then you can go on Rogan
00:49:07
for three hours and show that you're a
00:49:09
normal funny guy who actually knows a
00:49:11
lot about policy it's just such a
00:49:13
different impression than what the media
00:49:15
is trying to portray that it's been
00:49:18
incredibly I think useful and
00:49:20
advantageous for Trump by the same token
00:49:23
KLA Harris has not been willing to do
00:49:25
Rogen at least not on Rogan's terms
00:49:27
apparently she was willing to sit down
00:49:30
for one hour with him but but not in
00:49:32
Austin according but not in Austin but
00:49:34
Rogan said is no we have to sit down in
00:49:37
our studio for three hours so far she
00:49:39
hasn't been willing to do that I think
00:49:41
that speaks volumes in and of itself is
00:49:43
that she hasn't been willing to subject
00:49:45
herself to the same sort of you could
00:49:48
call it interrogation or really just
00:49:50
longform conversation that Trump has
00:49:52
been willing to but in any event just I
00:49:55
think my bottom line on this is that I
00:49:57
think Trump's biggest challenge in this
00:49:59
election is just to get people
00:50:02
comfortable with the idea of a second
00:50:05
Trump term to get people comfortable
00:50:07
with him and I think that him going on
00:50:10
all these podcasts including ours
00:50:13
including I thought that Andrew Schulz
00:50:14
Swan was really good too has helped him
00:50:16
I think just get people comfortable with
00:50:17
the idea of of trump which I think was
00:50:20
just his biggest obstacle in this
00:50:21
election because people definitely want
00:50:22
to change and they're not happy with
00:50:24
Biden Harris you know the one thing I
00:50:26
say is before you go on Rogan there's a
00:50:31
sense of anxiety that I had which was do
00:50:36
I have enough interesting things to say
00:50:38
for three hours that was really at the
00:50:40
top of my mind I think Jason I talked to
00:50:42
you right before yeah I went on and and
00:50:45
that was a big thing for
00:50:47
me and then you go and you get in the
00:50:50
seat and he's incredible in the way that
00:50:53
he kind of like moves the conversation
00:50:55
along and then you end up you're like oh
00:50:57
it's already been 3 hours that's his
00:51:01
superpow the reason that she should find
00:51:04
a way to go to Austin and do it is
00:51:07
because he has the ability to allow you
00:51:11
to be your true self over a long period
00:51:13
of time and I think again just going
00:51:16
back to the
00:51:17
basics she deserves for herself for the
00:51:21
American people to vote up or down who
00:51:24
she really is and all the campaign
00:51:26
strategists aside and all of the other
00:51:28
nonsense aside I would want if I was
00:51:31
running for president one shot at people
00:51:35
being able to see me for who I really am
00:51:39
and that's why she should go on R I
00:51:41
think she's afraid of that I mean she
00:51:43
has mostly ducked media interviews and
00:51:47
ducked any podcast that would be
00:51:49
perceived as ever she's definitely gone
00:51:51
with the friend but she sto she stopped
00:51:53
ducking them I think In fairness to her
00:51:55
like maybe after she was like in the
00:51:57
third or fourth week she started yeah
00:51:59
she's done call me daddy she's done
00:52:00
Howard
00:52:01
Stern knew would be super friendly yeah
00:52:03
of course yeah doing adversarial is
00:52:06
don't you think that Trump did our show
00:52:08
because he thought it would be friendly
00:52:10
yeah he started with friendlies yeah
00:52:12
yeah why would he do opposition when
00:52:13
Trump did I mean we were one of the
00:52:15
first podcasts he went on went on that
00:52:17
fox she went on that Fox News thing she
00:52:19
did Fox News for 26 minutes freeberg and
00:52:21
her staff was waving they were on the
00:52:24
sidelines waving frantically to get her
00:52:26
off of there um but any event was was
00:52:29
were we the first podcast to interview
00:52:31
Trump second nek boys were first I guess
00:52:34
we were
00:52:36
second I think that it was really
00:52:39
unclear what would happen when you you
00:52:42
know put a major candidate for president
00:52:44
on a podcast for an hour at the time he
00:52:45
did it I think he took a little bit of a
00:52:47
risk um and I think it worked out for
00:52:49
him and then he's done a lot more since
00:52:51
then I mean other than Rogan Rogan and
00:52:54
us have consistent tried to get
00:52:57
everybody on all sides to be on the
00:52:58
podcast I think we did a really good job
00:53:00
looking back on we've gotten everybody
00:53:02
except one person K yeah I mean I wish I
00:53:06
had time to have asked January that get
00:53:11
to on my question we had all The
00:53:12
Independents and we had all the credible
00:53:15
Republicans and to his credit we were
00:53:17
the first for RFK right we were the
00:53:19
first
00:53:21
with first for Dean Phillips Dean
00:53:24
Phillips and V
00:53:27
were the first for V and so yeah I give
00:53:28
us some some credit there on the um
00:53:30
search issue I looked into that there VI
00:53:34
sorry I always get that wrong the search
00:53:36
issue there was some complaints that
00:53:38
YouTube might have been like I don't
00:53:40
know hiding the video which didn't make
00:53:42
much sense to people so I did an
00:53:44
investigation of that sax you're
00:53:47
laughing go
00:53:48
ahead well finish what you're saying no
00:53:51
no no I have a different point of view
00:53:52
than you on this but I didn't get my
00:53:53
point I know I've seen it on Twitter but
00:53:56
keep going oh well no I did um a search
00:53:59
on you're going to defend Google I know
00:54:01
no no I'm not defending Google I'm just
00:54:02
explaining to people how search works
00:54:04
independent of it I went to Bing dock
00:54:07
Dogo search. brave.com Google YouTube
00:54:11
Google video and what people don't
00:54:14
understand about how the search
00:54:15
algorithms work is they are designed to
00:54:18
increase advertising dollars and
00:54:21
freeberg will back me up this he worked
00:54:22
at Google and session link that's the
00:54:26
goal am I correct freeberg with
00:54:28
algorithms whether it's Tik Tok YouTubes
00:54:31
Etc yeah
00:54:34
I I know more about search results I
00:54:36
don't know as much about the video stuff
00:54:37
so so when you look at that it's it's a
00:54:40
very nuanced thing but Joe Rogan doesn't
00:54:42
monetize his search he does
00:54:45
not make any money for them and then
00:54:48
Clips do make money for YouTube and the
00:54:51
clips have flooded the zone so if you do
00:54:53
a search on any search engine whether
00:54:55
it's being or Brave or duck ducko Google
00:54:59
or YouTube any of them what you'll find
00:55:01
is the clips beat out the main episodes
00:55:05
all the time this happens to our podcast
00:55:07
when people clip our podcasts they will
00:55:09
do keyword stuffing and they'll beat us
00:55:12
and it will beat the algorithm because
00:55:14
the algorithm wants to get ads and we
00:55:16
don't have ads turned on either so
00:55:18
people have this frequent frustration
00:55:19
with this weekend startups my other
00:55:21
podcast all in here and Joe Rogan that
00:55:24
anything that's not monetized on YouTube
00:55:26
doesn't rank high and if you look all of
00:55:29
the
00:55:30
clips and this makes sense if you just
00:55:32
think logically the clips will will
00:55:36
generate more engagement because you get
00:55:38
to watch the highlights so it's kind of
00:55:40
like sports highlights sax would you
00:55:42
like to conspiracy theory this and tell
00:55:44
us that Sergey is sandbagging for the
00:55:47
Democrats or something by hiding YouTu
00:55:49
conspiracy theory you can just I mean if
00:55:51
you go to Google every single day and
00:55:53
just type in a trump related search term
00:55:56
versus a Comm related search term you'll
00:55:58
see the difference in coverage but back
00:56:00
to the the Rogan thing look Google is a
00:56:03
search engine this is what they're
00:56:04
supposed to be good at you have an
00:56:06
interview between the biggest podcaster
00:56:08
in the world and a former president
00:56:10
who's probably the most famous person in
00:56:11
the world it's massively trending it's
00:56:14
got something like 100 million views at
00:56:16
the time that people noticed that you
00:56:18
couldn't find it on YouTube it already
00:56:19
had something like 34 million views what
00:56:22
I'm saying is you have to work pretty
00:56:24
hard as a search engine for your
00:56:26
algorithm to be so bad that you can't
00:56:29
find that interview okay when I went to
00:56:31
YouTube and tried to find it at first I
00:56:32
typed in Trump Rogan interview couldn't
00:56:35
find it then I typed Trump Rogan
00:56:38
interview podcast couldn't find it it
00:56:40
was just Clips then it was Trump Rogan
00:56:43
full interview full po podcast still
00:56:45
couldn't find it there's no question
00:56:47
that just is a factual matter this
00:56:49
episode was suppressed in YouTube search
00:56:53
if you went to the main Google search
00:56:54
engine and did a similar search what you
00:56:56
would have found as the number one
00:56:58
search result was an article from the
00:57:02
Arizona Republic which is a publication
00:57:04
I've never even heard of that would have
00:57:06
told you that the Rogan interview with
00:57:08
Trump was a brain rotted waste of three
00:57:10
hours that's the number one result
00:57:12
somehow Google decides that his number
00:57:14
one result for the Rogan interview was
00:57:17
this Arizona Republic story okay I I
00:57:20
mean that is not a search engine doing
00:57:22
its job so it's pretty obvious to me
00:57:25
that they're using other
00:57:28
factors in deciding what to surface here
00:57:32
and somehow the results end up being
00:57:35
almost universally negative towards
00:57:37
Trump and almost universally positive
00:57:39
towards kamla I think you've got to at
00:57:41
this point have your head buried really
00:57:43
deep in the sand not to think that
00:57:46
Google is incredibly biased in this
00:57:49
election against Trump let me pull up
00:57:51
some facts to show how wrong you are if
00:57:55
you pull up you
00:57:57
here's an image of the YouTube search
00:57:59
results that I just did for the Trump
00:58:01
Rogan and what you'll see is as I
00:58:03
explained previously Clips perform
00:58:06
better and make money they make money so
00:58:08
the algorithm favors those and what
00:58:10
you'll see here is Fox News Etc and all
00:58:12
these clips and then eventually you get
00:58:14
to The Joe Rogan interview and if you
00:58:15
look at Bing search results for Rogan
00:58:17
Trump interview what you'll see is all
00:58:19
the search engines put news up first
00:58:22
then they go to organic so it's just a
00:58:24
fundamental misunderstanding of of how
00:58:26
search is designed for users they start
00:58:29
with news on every search engine today
00:58:32
and then here's Google's same thing and
00:58:34
then what you'll see here is on the
00:58:36
Google and on the bang images you have a
00:58:39
collection you know typically five or
00:58:40
six news stories then they go to the
00:58:42
first organic so people just don't
00:58:44
understand how search works it's always
00:58:46
news first when you type in a
00:58:48
politician's name and then when you look
00:58:50
at the news or you it has New York Post
00:58:52
right leaning you have people who are
00:58:54
dead center like AP in there and you
00:58:56
have Fox News there in the Google one so
00:58:58
of the first five two of them are right
00:59:01
leaning and AP is obviously in the
00:59:03
middle Forbes I don't know maybe Forbes
00:59:06
is Right leaning too freeberg over to
00:59:08
you well I was going to say I read
00:59:11
somewhere so I have no direct knowledge
00:59:13
about this I actually hanged several
00:59:15
people at Google to ask them what was
00:59:16
going on and I did not get a clear
00:59:18
response I I so like I have no insight
00:59:20
as to what actually happened but what I
00:59:23
read online somewhere was that someone
00:59:25
reported that someone at Google said
00:59:28
that there were there was kind of a a
00:59:31
whole bunch of people that clicked
00:59:32
inappropriate content flagging on the
00:59:34
video so like anti-trump people went to
00:59:38
the video clicked that it was
00:59:39
inappropriate and when when YouTube gets
00:59:42
that many people clicking that this is
00:59:44
inappropriate it automatically fling yes
00:59:48
it is a technique people will use
00:59:49
they've used it on our program here
00:59:51
where they right so if you get like a
00:59:52
million people that say at once like hey
00:59:55
there's inappropriate content here the
00:59:57
default is hide the video to hide the
01:00:00
video from search results while it's
01:00:02
investigated but clearly there's
01:00:03
something messed up here because they
01:00:05
should have been on top of that and
01:00:06
responded immediately with the video
01:00:08
that has such a large number of views
01:00:10
and such a large audience to allow that
01:00:13
to happen and and drag on for so long
01:00:16
but someone said that that may have been
01:00:17
what happened and then they fixed it I
01:00:18
so I don't know but I just want to point
01:00:20
that out that it may not necessarily
01:00:22
have been kind of overt action by Google
01:00:25
but just the way that the system is set
01:00:26
up that anyone can flag and if enough
01:00:28
people flag you get this s and I can
01:00:29
tell you I know firsthand that Google is
01:00:32
aware of the claims of bias and you I
01:00:36
think you're starting to see it just
01:00:37
like CNN is aware of the claims of bias
01:00:39
added CNN is aware of the claims super I
01:00:42
mean like all these companies are super
01:00:43
sensitive to so Facebook Mark
01:00:46
Zuckerberg's very sensitive to it I know
01:00:48
Sundar himself is very sensitive to it I
01:00:50
I don't want to kind of hide the fact
01:00:51
that these people think that they're
01:00:52
going out and being biased that they
01:00:55
have these kind of information Empires
01:00:57
because they know that they're going to
01:00:57
lose trust and they're going to lose
01:00:59
customers and revenue and Etc CNN has
01:01:02
done I think an exceptional job I don't
01:01:03
know if you watch it at all saxs but
01:01:06
they have been having Trump supporters
01:01:08
and right-wing commentators in CNN on
01:01:11
the desk every yes it's really changed
01:01:14
the nature of it from being like MSNBC
01:01:16
or Fox did you know being something in
01:01:18
the midle I've never I never watched I
01:01:21
never watch these shows but like before
01:01:22
we go off on this topic people
01:01:24
throughout this election have been post
01:01:26
in Google search results when you just
01:01:28
type in Trump versus Harris and I've
01:01:31
done it every single time it's massively
01:01:34
biased I mean let's just go through them
01:01:36
this was a search result I got months
01:01:37
ago where I just typed in Donald Trump
01:01:40
and you the first Carousel was about
01:01:42
kamla Harris I remember joking on the
01:01:45
Pod that if you want to find the latest
01:01:46
news about KLA Harris just search for
01:01:49
Donald Trump and then you go down and
01:01:51
the first Carousel that's about Trump is
01:01:54
negative stories this one was about
01:01:56
project 2025 which has nothing to do
01:01:57
with Trump nonetheless this was a major
01:01:59
Democratic talking point at the time is
01:02:02
that somehow that project 2025 is what
01:02:05
Trump would do in a second term I just
01:02:07
did this and it's different now
01:02:08
obviously this is you said this is a few
01:02:09
months old I've been doing this on a
01:02:12
recurring basis over the last few months
01:02:14
and the point is that whenever you
01:02:17
search for the candidates the news is
01:02:19
very positive towards Harris and it's
01:02:22
very negative towards Trump and even
01:02:24
when you search for Trump they'll give
01:02:26
positive news about Aris now go to the
01:02:28
go to the podcast se you don't you don't
01:02:30
think this is a function of the fact
01:02:32
that so many media Outlets are being so
01:02:33
negative about Trump and positive about
01:02:35
Harris and so therefore the ratio is
01:02:36
just off how does the Arizona Republic
01:02:39
end up being the first choice when you
01:02:40
search for Rogan Trump they're not you
01:02:43
know like page rank can't explain that
01:02:45
they're just not a major publication
01:02:47
they're not being linked to by a lot of
01:02:48
people doesn't make any sense here's
01:02:50
another example okay stay on this one
01:02:52
for a second this was after Trump went
01:02:54
on the Andrew Schulz
01:02:56
podcast that podcast was a very positive
01:03:00
experience for him as we just talked
01:03:01
about helped his campaign a lot what's
01:03:04
the number one result when you look at
01:03:05
for that new Republic podcast host
01:03:08
laughing Trump face as he struggles to
01:03:10
defend rambling that's when he had that
01:03:11
hilarious story about The Weave if you
01:03:14
actually watch the clip the podcast
01:03:16
hosts were they were definitely laughing
01:03:18
with him they were not laughing at him
01:03:19
that was a ridiculous
01:03:21
mischaracterization the new Republic is
01:03:23
not the objective uh source for anything
01:03:26
I don't know how you could say that
01:03:28
objectively page rank should get you to
01:03:31
the new Republic as the number one
01:03:32
source for the Andrew Schultz interview
01:03:35
of trump that is bias I mean it's just
01:03:38
biased you there's been so many examples
01:03:41
of Google giving these ridiculous
01:03:44
results and they find obscure
01:03:47
Publications and obscure articles that
01:03:50
have no basis in the truth to to elevate
01:03:52
to the top it's almost like they're
01:03:54
trying to find the most negative article
01:03:56
they can find on Trump and make that the
01:03:58
number one result yeah it's not the
01:04:00
search engine it's just the Corpus of
01:04:02
media that's being indexed um if you
01:04:05
look here at Google why is New York
01:04:07
Times then that's the number one thing
01:04:09
well I mean just you know here if you
01:04:11
look at Donald Trump you know if we were
01:04:13
to look at these new sources there's NBC
01:04:16
NPR Politico and New York Times are left
01:04:18
leaning if you were to do this on um I
01:04:22
think I have bang as the next one you
01:04:23
can open and you can look at the next
01:04:25
one Nick which is duck Dugo in all of
01:04:27
these cases the problem is only 3 or 4%
01:04:30
of journalists at Publications today are
01:04:33
right leaning and most of the right
01:04:35
leaning Publications are opinion
01:04:37
Publications like Fox Etc and so you
01:04:40
just you don't have a lot of
01:04:41
representation in the index of
01:04:43
Republicans and that's like a big
01:04:45
opportunity I think for Republicans is
01:04:47
to make more Publications or take more
01:04:48
Publications over like we're seeing with
01:04:50
the LA Times and Washington Post think
01:04:53
going to Publications if Google would
01:04:55
choose to surface them but it decides
01:04:57
that it doesn't want to it's it's on a
01:05:00
percentage basis it's very small as the
01:05:02
problem here you go this is Arizona
01:05:04
Republic rocketing to the top of search
01:05:06
results for Joe Rogan Trump interview
01:05:08
that's a publication that is local to
01:05:10
Arizona that no one's ever heard of it
01:05:12
has no basis being the number one result
01:05:14
in Google New York Times is second okay
01:05:16
I can see the logic of that because New
01:05:18
York Times is a big publication then you
01:05:21
go down one row to the Carousel oh
01:05:24
there's new Republic again why because
01:05:26
it's calling Trump appearing on Joe
01:05:28
Rogan shady and then you've got another
01:05:30
one another one there from the
01:05:32
Independent calling Trump a predator I
01:05:34
mean come on this is ridiculous okay so
01:05:36
you've shared these examples um what I
01:05:39
what I would recommend is I think we get
01:05:40
someone from Google on the show we could
01:05:41
arrange that and they can kind of talk
01:05:43
about how the algorithm works because I
01:05:45
don't think any of us are going to be
01:05:46
able to provide a reasonable
01:05:47
Counterpoint or understanding of what's
01:05:49
going on and if there is bias um and
01:05:52
there's some kind of manual intervention
01:05:54
in this in this process maybe it can be
01:05:56
kind of discussed and talked about why
01:05:58
and how and you know what the automation
01:06:00
is that causes this to happen and let's
01:06:02
just try let's try let's try and
01:06:04
cover I'll I'll take that as a to-do and
01:06:06
I'll try and find someone that we can
01:06:07
talk with listen to have a conversation
01:06:09
they do I I look I mean I've talked with
01:06:11
a lot of people over there and I have
01:06:13
heard from a lot of folks that this is a
01:06:16
real issue that folks are trying to
01:06:17
address internally so that there's this
01:06:18
perception of bias that they're trying
01:06:20
to get rid of and they really want to
01:06:22
address it this is what I've heard from
01:06:23
people at Google so I want to give them
01:06:24
a chance to come talk pull up the look
01:06:27
rather than having us all debate it or I
01:06:29
don't even have a strong point of view
01:06:30
on this I'd rather just bring someone in
01:06:31
and talk about it so just as a counter
01:06:33
point here Nick pull up the B I just did
01:06:34
for Donald Trump and we'll just if you
01:06:35
do it as an exercise that's always the
01:06:37
way to find the objective truth here is
01:06:39
to try the independent search engines or
01:06:40
other search engines duck ducko
01:06:42
bravex perplexity do that as well we'll
01:06:46
see but anyway if you look here this
01:06:48
bing one if you take out MSN well
01:06:51
no woke woke search.com J MSN USA Today
01:06:57
Charlotte Observer Seattle Times
01:06:59
Washington Post I think these are all
01:07:00
left leaning so that is more to my point
01:07:03
that like the entire Corpus of news
01:07:06
reportage is 95% left leaning that's
01:07:10
what's happening here and so they need
01:07:12
to they're going to need to manually
01:07:14
Sach say these 5% should get represented
01:07:19
5050 in the search results to please the
01:07:21
other side even though that's not what
01:07:24
the Corpus is and the number of stories
01:07:26
written by left leaning just is probably
01:07:28
50 to one to right leaning moving on I
01:07:33
have an alterate explanation can we just
01:07:35
pull up this this it's got some data I'd
01:07:37
like to just pull up this data if I
01:07:38
could if you look at employee donations
01:07:40
to party we've tech companies it's all
01:07:43
90s something percent goes to Democrats
01:07:46
except for that's a pretty simple
01:07:47
explanation for why the Google search
01:07:50
results are horribly biased in One
01:07:53
Direction Uber's 18%
01:07:57
all right let's go to our final segment
01:08:00
here we'll talk a little bit about the
01:08:01
election why don't you te us up here
01:08:03
Freer all right guys I'll quickly uh
01:08:06
introduce our final political
01:08:10
election update before our live stream
01:08:13
on Tuesday obviously a lot of
01:08:17
daily freakout daily efforts at having
01:08:21
an October surprise that will take down
01:08:22
the other side all sorts of drama all
01:08:25
sorts of insult not a lot of love in
01:08:27
America right now super depressing and
01:08:29
sad all sorts of stuff happened this
01:08:31
week jcal why don't you kick us off what
01:08:33
do you think's going to happen on
01:08:34
Tuesday what are the things that you
01:08:35
think are going to move people between
01:08:37
now and then it's a tossup I mean that's
01:08:39
what everybody's saying it looks like
01:08:40
Trump's got a slight lead and so I think
01:08:42
it's going to be a tossup saxs agreed
01:08:45
are we 6535 as poly Market predicts or
01:08:48
are we 100% Trump are we 90% K La Harris
01:08:53
what are we uh looking well you
01:08:54
definitely can't say it's going to be
01:08:55
100%
01:08:56
anyone I mean but if again if you look
01:08:58
at all the data the data is definitely
01:09:00
pointing towards Trump having an
01:09:02
advantage it's U obviously the
01:09:03
prediction markets are almost two to one
01:09:05
in favor of trump the polling shows that
01:09:07
Trump is ahead narrowly in this in all
01:09:10
the swing States I think every single
01:09:11
one of them even the uh sort of blue
01:09:14
wall states of Pennsylvania Michigan
01:09:15
Wisconsin that Harris must win I think
01:09:18
in order to have a path to
01:09:21
Victory whereas Michigan and Wisconsin
01:09:24
are very very close like 1% or less in
01:09:27
the swing state polls
01:09:29
Pennsylvania polling shows that Trump is
01:09:31
ahead by I think two or three that's
01:09:33
what I've seen today so it's it is
01:09:36
looking good for Trump and if you look
01:09:37
at the numbers that elon's group The
01:09:41
that America pack put out it looks like
01:09:43
the early voting in Pennsylvania is
01:09:47
trending 500,000 votes better for
01:09:52
republicans in the early voting than
01:09:54
four years ago but is that just pulling
01:09:56
votes forward some folks have said it
01:09:59
could be instead of showing up at The
01:10:00
Ballot Box on Tuesday a lot of folks are
01:10:02
doing mailin and making sure they get
01:10:04
their vote in in mail instead of going
01:10:06
in first there's so then you got to look
01:10:07
at polling of people who say they're
01:10:10
going to vote but haven't voted yet in
01:10:13
Pennsylvania who say they're going to
01:10:14
vote on Election Day and I think those
01:10:16
numbers are running about 18 points
01:10:18
ahead for Trump which is about double
01:10:22
what he needs to win so he just to be
01:10:24
clear the early voting favors Harris but
01:10:27
not by the same percentages that it did
01:10:28
four years ago so right now it looks
01:10:32
like Trump is tracking to win that state
01:10:36
but look I can't guarantee it I'm not
01:10:38
representing that you know that's
01:10:40
exactly what's going to happen but right
01:10:42
now the numbers are looking good
01:10:44
remember Biden only won Pennsylvania by
01:10:46
880,000 votes and again the swing so far
01:10:50
is uh Republicans are doing 500,000
01:10:52
votes better than they were doing four
01:10:54
years ago so there's a lot of stories
01:10:56
coming out on Twitter on Independent
01:10:58
Media and on mainstream Media or Legacy
01:11:00
Media as we might call it now talking
01:11:02
about hey I live at a house I got 15
01:11:05
ballots mailed to me all with different
01:11:06
random names and these sort of anecdotal
01:11:09
stories are being pushed and then
01:11:11
Amplified by folks that are involved in
01:11:14
the election chamat is this kind of
01:11:17
dangerous do we think that there really
01:11:19
is a lot of this kind of election
01:11:22
meddling happening and if not or if
01:11:24
there is
01:11:25
is this kind of a dangerous thing to
01:11:27
happen where a lot of people are talking
01:11:29
about this where no matter what happens
01:11:30
on Tuesday people start to question the
01:11:32
results of the election how much should
01:11:34
we be kind of worried about this
01:11:35
rhetoric I think there are two things
01:11:37
there's the substance and then there's
01:11:39
the strategy the substance is
01:11:42
that does it really make sense that the
01:11:44
most advanced and important country in
01:11:46
the
01:11:47
world doesn't have a uniform system
01:11:51
where one ballot is given to every
01:11:54
single
01:11:55
American citizen who is eligible to
01:11:59
vote that probably makes sense so we
01:12:03
should probably just figure out how to
01:12:04
do that separately the strategy of it is
01:12:08
for both sides to lay the groundwork to
01:12:10
say that this
01:12:11
thing somehow wasn't totally right down
01:12:14
the middle I am hoping for a very clear
01:12:18
decisive
01:12:20
Victory and frankly whichever candidate
01:12:24
wins I hope that it's very clear and
01:12:25
decisive so that everybody is forced to
01:12:28
deescalate and move
01:12:30
on now that said I think what the early
01:12:35
voting
01:12:36
data shows is something that you haven't
01:12:40
seen in the past which is that there are
01:12:45
a lot of Republican people that are
01:12:47
voting
01:12:49
early I don't know what that means for
01:12:51
election day but typically it's the
01:12:53
Democrats that dominate these
01:12:55
early voting processes and they build
01:12:59
What's called the firewall and in these
01:13:01
swing States these firewalls become very
01:13:03
important going into election day and as
01:13:06
saak said a bunch of these states
01:13:08
are different than they've historically
01:13:11
been in the favor of the
01:13:14
Republicans I saw an article today that
01:13:16
just said that they've basically
01:13:18
considered Nevada now in the Republican
01:13:22
Camp because like there's been so much
01:13:24
early voting that it's about 60% of the
01:13:26
total votes they think have already been
01:13:27
cast since they they have a very clear
01:13:30
Republican lead going into election day
01:13:32
so there's all kinds of stuff here
01:13:33
that's
01:13:34
new I just hope that it's just an
01:13:36
absolutely crushing victory in One
01:13:38
Direction or the other so that we
01:13:40
deescalate and get get on to the
01:13:43
business of running the country so I'm
01:13:45
going to break with my most my
01:13:47
Republican Brethren on this and say I
01:13:48
think early voting is actually a good
01:13:50
thing it's it's very convenient right
01:13:52
like why force people to only vote on
01:13:55
just one day because what if you get
01:13:58
sick or a kid gets sick and you have to
01:14:00
pick him up from school there's a lot of
01:14:01
things that can go wrong it is more
01:14:03
convenient to have say two or three
01:14:05
weeks to be able to cast your vote I
01:14:06
actually think that's not a bad thing
01:14:08
and in terms of who it helps I'm not
01:14:10
sure but I think that as the Republicans
01:14:12
become more of a populist party and the
01:14:14
Democrats become more of an elitist
01:14:16
party I think higher turnout might
01:14:18
actually might benefit Republicans
01:14:21
regardless I think it's a huge
01:14:22
convenience for voters and I think early
01:14:24
voting is something that we should keep
01:14:27
the thing we got to change is in the
01:14:29
states where you don't have to present
01:14:31
any voter ID to show who you are that's
01:14:34
just crazy I mean you just you go up to
01:14:35
the polling place and you give your name
01:14:38
and I guess your address they look you
01:14:39
up in a computer and they hand you a
01:14:40
ballot and there's no verification that
01:14:43
you're you are who you say you are that
01:14:45
to me is crazy the other thing that's
01:14:47
crazy is that you can even get
01:14:48
registered and added to the voter roles
01:14:51
in a lot of states without any proof of
01:14:53
citizenship so there are states where
01:14:57
you can go get a driver's license
01:14:58
without proof of citizenship and there's
01:15:00
just a checkbox to be added to the voter
01:15:02
rules and no one ever checks your
01:15:04
Citizen and now you're on the voter Rule
01:15:07
and you can go pick up your ballot
01:15:09
without any voter ID that's just crazy
01:15:11
to me so I think that after this
01:15:13
election there should be some sort of
01:15:16
Bill that gets passed and signed by the
01:15:18
president that sets a minimum standard
01:15:22
for for voter integrity and federal
01:15:25
election for federal election for
01:15:26
federal election states can do what they
01:15:28
want right like each state can states
01:15:30
can do what they want but I don't think
01:15:31
States should be able to do whatever
01:15:31
they want in federal election I just
01:15:33
want I want to point out that each state
01:15:36
is effectively voting for the folks that
01:15:39
they want to have go to the Electoral
01:15:41
College and that's really where the vote
01:15:42
for president is cast so but that
01:15:45
affects all of us if there's hold on if
01:15:46
there's cheating in several States and
01:15:49
in a close election by the way I'm not
01:15:52
I'm not accusing that of happening okay
01:15:54
I'm just saying that if we have several
01:15:56
states that don't have basic voter
01:16:00
Integrity that affects the outcome of a
01:16:03
election that has a huge impact on all
01:16:04
of us let's just talk about this really
01:16:06
important point which I think a lot of
01:16:07
folks ignore it's not a direct democracy
01:16:10
it's not like everyone in the united
01:16:11
states votes for the president what
01:16:13
happens is the states send a bunch of
01:16:15
electors to go vote for the president
01:16:17
the each state casts a vote for the
01:16:20
president how each state ultimately
01:16:22
decides who they're going to vote for
01:16:24
for president is through this kind of
01:16:26
process that we've kind of standardized
01:16:27
across the states but each state is
01:16:29
making a vote so shouldn't the states be
01:16:31
able to kind of decide how they want to
01:16:33
make their kind of voting process run
01:16:36
internally to determine who the V are
01:16:38
that are going to go to the Electoral
01:16:39
College yeah I mean I think the
01:16:40
Constitution specifies that the states
01:16:42
will run their own elections and and I'm
01:16:44
fine with that but what I'm saying is
01:16:45
there needs to be a minimum standard to
01:16:47
me the minimum standard is voter ID and
01:16:49
proof of citizenship to get registered
01:16:52
I'm in strong agreement with saxs on on
01:16:54
this front and I've actually done a ton
01:16:56
of research into it that I would like to
01:16:58
share because I think this is an
01:16:59
important service we can do here on the
01:17:02
all-in podcast I
01:17:04
think I had uh Hans so as a dieh hard
01:17:07
moderate you agree with sex I I I mean
01:17:10
as an American I don't you know putting
01:17:12
political parties aside I had Hans Von
01:17:15
spakovsky of the Heritage Foundation on
01:17:18
this week and startups last Tuesday you
01:17:19
can watch it and they have spent a ton
01:17:22
of money and time on elction
01:17:25
fraud and obviously they're a partisan
01:17:28
organization they found 1600 cases in 40
01:17:31
years it's about 40 a year they found 23
01:17:35
cases in 2020 none of them were in
01:17:38
Georgia you can go search those cases
01:17:40
you'll find cases like this one here
01:17:42
that Nick will pull up Randy Allen
01:17:44
jumper who voted twice and the database
01:17:46
is amazing anybody they're they're like
01:17:48
crowdsourcing this and so putting all
01:17:50
partisan aside the Heritage Foundation
01:17:53
is doing great work here because
01:17:55
sunlight is the best disinfectant and
01:17:57
what's really important for Americans to
01:17:59
understand is it is
01:18:02
impossible right now absolutely
01:18:05
statistically impossible to swing the
01:18:08
presidential election with fraud the
01:18:11
Brennan Center they're on the other side
01:18:14
they did a report about voter fraud um
01:18:16
and they put it at
01:18:18
0.003% and
01:18:20
0.0025% and basically you've got a much
01:18:24
greater chance of being struck by
01:18:26
lightning and let's just do a little bit
01:18:27
of math here 158 million people voted in
01:18:30
2020 we'll have about 160 million this
01:18:33
year if the estimates are correct and if
01:18:35
you look at swing States right that's
01:18:39
where I think a lot of people are
01:18:40
concerned oh what if they could swing it
01:18:42
in Georgia right and we all know from
01:18:44
the famous phone call to Brad
01:18:47
raffensberger who's a republican
01:18:49
Secretary of State uh and Trump said hey
01:18:51
you know we got to find these 11,780
01:18:53
votes that was the winning margin so if
01:18:55
we were to talk about that right and we
01:18:57
compare it to what the Heritage
01:18:59
Foundation found 1,600 cases documented
01:19:02
in 40 years about 40 a year now there
01:19:06
could be a multiple of that freeberg 10
01:19:08
times a hundred times but to find 11,000
01:19:13
ballots this would require in
01:19:16
Georgia for which has voter ID and by
01:19:19
the way voter ID is in 35 of 50 states
01:19:22
already after this election it's going
01:19:23
to hit 40 because it's just obvious that
01:19:26
we all want that Georgia requires you to
01:19:29
have ID to vote in person and you have
01:19:31
to water and they' Watermark the ballots
01:19:34
so in order shth for somebody to do this
01:19:37
they would have to fake 12,000 Watermark
01:19:42
ballots and have fake IDs and have those
01:19:45
12,000 people not show up to vote and
01:19:48
have two votes there then well looks
01:19:50
like Georgia's got a great system but
01:19:52
we're talking about the states that
01:19:53
don't like in California they just
01:19:55
passed a law saying that you're not
01:19:56
allowed to look at voter ID right and so
01:19:59
that obviously should change but the
01:20:01
point is even in California which
01:20:04
California California did that why do
01:20:06
you guys think such a law is passed
01:20:08
what's the justification for that they
01:20:11
want to not have somebody who had a
01:20:14
chance to vote vote and it obviously
01:20:16
benefits Democrats if you believe that
01:20:20
uh minorities don't have ID in some
01:20:22
greater population which people have
01:20:24
rightly called out is racist uh and
01:20:26
there is this concept that black people
01:20:29
or Hispanic people might not have IDs to
01:20:32
the same extent and they would lean
01:20:34
Democrat that is the cynical approach
01:20:37
that uh people have taken but if we if
01:20:39
we look at this it is impossible
01:20:42
impossible to S the federal election
01:20:45
sorry Jason you're saying it's a Dei
01:20:47
thing that's that's what people claim
01:20:49
I'm not saying I claim that's I think
01:20:51
that's condescending and nonsense to act
01:20:53
like minorities don't driver's license
01:20:55
that's ridiculous ridiculous or some
01:20:56
other form of ID I I think it's ABS your
01:20:59
question Toth I don't think there is a a
01:21:02
good justification there's none for
01:21:05
rejecting voter ID and the law is even
01:21:06
worse than that because it literally
01:21:08
makes it illegal for someone to ask so
01:21:10
if you go to a polling place in
01:21:11
California they can't look at your ID
01:21:15
even if you say well I lost my Ballot or
01:21:17
something they just have to take your
01:21:18
word for it you when they give you a new
01:21:19
ballot there's a legal requirement for
01:21:21
every employer when you hire somebody to
01:21:24
make sure that that person is eligible
01:21:26
to work in the United States if you're
01:21:28
going to pay them legally right you get
01:21:29
an I9 and they need to you know uh
01:21:33
justify that they have a Social Security
01:21:35
number that typically tells you whether
01:21:37
you need a a supplemental work
01:21:39
authorization or not so if you do that
01:21:42
for normal functional
01:21:45
employment why wouldn't you do it for
01:21:48
voting as well of course you need an
01:21:50
idea to get on a plane you need an idea
01:21:52
to buy a beer right you need an ID to do
01:21:56
all sorts of things in our society right
01:21:58
so it's it's ludicrous I mean and and
01:22:01
voting is something where you should
01:22:02
need an ID because you have to say you
01:22:04
have to match up that the person who's
01:22:06
standing in front of you at The Ballot
01:22:08
Box is the person on the voter roles
01:22:10
well why is it more important to make
01:22:12
sure that the person sitting in 23b on
01:22:15
the United flight is who he says it is
01:22:19
but it's less important for someone to
01:22:21
just walk in off the street and vote for
01:22:22
the president of the United States why
01:22:24
is that
01:22:25
because people believe that certain
01:22:28
communities may not have ID and then
01:22:31
they would be not right to vote why
01:22:34
don't why don't you allow people to just
01:22:35
get on an airplane and just fly wherever
01:22:37
they want like why don't yeah or or
01:22:39
drive without a driver 100% yeah yeah I
01:22:42
mean it's I'm not saying I agree with
01:22:44
any this I'm telling you what people
01:22:45
have said is the reason I think it's
01:22:48
it's cover I think that's total nonsense
01:22:50
I think it's actually if you think about
01:22:51
it it's insulting to minority groups to
01:22:53
imply that they're inable getting a vo
01:22:56
when you say when you say people you're
01:22:57
saying people in
01:22:59
charge the people in charge of
01:23:01
California this is what they think yes
01:23:04
and it turns out the only didn't have
01:23:07
cheating we haven't had voter
01:23:10
ID they wanted not every state has
01:23:14
government IDE that isn't a driver's
01:23:17
license right so this is Gavin
01:23:20
new it's obvious to see what the effect
01:23:23
this is going to be is it it it makes it
01:23:26
easier to engage in cheating do you guys
01:23:28
think if Gavin Newsome was on an
01:23:30
airplane and we said half these people
01:23:34
here have just bought a
01:23:36
ticket but we didn't check their IDs
01:23:38
would he get off the plane or stay on
01:23:40
the plane do you think right and TSA
01:23:42
requires ID so that they can do a check
01:23:44
on everyone make sure they're not on a
01:23:46
do not fly list and all that sort of
01:23:47
stuff there's consensus that everybody
01:23:49
wants voter ID I think you can kind of
01:23:51
think about a there's a do not fly list
01:23:53
and there should be do not vote list
01:23:55
like if you're not a citizen you should
01:23:56
be on the do not vote list meaning you
01:23:58
have to be on the I can vote list in
01:24:00
order to vote seems pretty reasonable
01:24:02
and you know the fact that we've got a
01:24:04
lot of federal agencies checking IDs to
01:24:06
deter important Point here is there is
01:24:09
no way to swing the election even if
01:24:11
there is a moderate amount that's that
01:24:14
is the most important for people to take
01:24:15
out you're not worried draw that
01:24:18
conclusion if people can cheat then you
01:24:19
can swing an election you can draw it
01:24:21
statistically based upon what I've just
01:24:23
said which is the smallest race is
01:24:28
11,779 remember when Trump asked them to
01:24:31
find those votes do you remember
01:24:34
that you're talking about the state of
01:24:36
Georgia which I think actually has
01:24:38
Integrity we're talking about the state
01:24:40
of California here that's the closest
01:24:42
race just law so just in your mind in
01:24:45
your mind logically think about what it
01:24:46
would take to get
01:24:48
11,000 779 people to fraudulently do
01:24:52
that and that they would go to jail and
01:24:54
it would be a felony so this is that
01:24:57
doesn't sound that hard to me I'm just
01:24:58
saying like finding 11,000 votes or
01:25:01
whatever doesn't seem that hard if
01:25:02
there's no voter Ian if Trump couldn't
01:25:03
do it how is it going to get done it's
01:25:06
not possible where would you get 11,000
01:25:08
ballots maybe not in Georgia because
01:25:10
they actually have voter in CIA where
01:25:12
would you get a$ 11,000 CIA is hold on a
01:25:14
second California is a huge State they
01:25:16
allow ballot harvesting and they've
01:25:17
eliminated voter ID yeah so telling
01:25:20
impossible for someone to cheat
01:25:22
nothing's impossible in cheat we all
01:25:25
agree cheating exists like credit cud
01:25:27
fraud exists what I'm saying is it's so
01:25:29
manageable that it is farcical for
01:25:31
anybody to think that we could swing the
01:25:35
presidential election because Trump
01:25:38
tried to swing the presidential election
01:25:40
by asking to find 11,000 and he filed 58
01:25:44
lawsuits and lost all of them it's not
01:25:46
possible folks do do you think so then
01:25:48
what is the value then of having voter
01:25:50
ID Jason if the cheating is so
01:25:52
hard because it would add more trust to
01:25:55
the system and it's always virtuous to
01:25:57
add more trust I think they should also
01:25:58
give you a receipt uh when you vote to
01:26:01
make sure there's no Shenanigans and we
01:26:03
want to build as much trust in the
01:26:04
system as possible but the point receipt
01:26:07
reduce fraud it would reduce people
01:26:12
believing that their vote was changed
01:26:13
after they left the box so if we all had
01:26:16
a receipt and then there was some debate
01:26:18
in a small area because of you know
01:26:21
hanging Chads like in Florida everybody
01:26:23
would have their and if you remember the
01:26:25
hanging Chad's case there were people
01:26:26
who said I voted for Gore I voted for
01:26:28
Bush and my vote got counted wrong
01:26:32
people don't remember this but you had
01:26:33
to push through a card and it popped a
01:26:35
Chad out of a little circle and there
01:26:37
are people who did it wrong because the
01:26:39
instructions were you know it's a
01:26:42
physical thing you have to punch a hole
01:26:43
into it I don't know who came up with
01:26:45
that system as opposed to drawing a
01:26:46
circle but that that was for years ago
01:26:48
I'm sure that's CH by now there was a
01:26:50
guy named Chad yeah but no now they are
01:26:53
giving receipts to people so so the gold
01:26:54
standard is giving a receipt showing ID
01:26:57
and having multiple weeks to do it and
01:27:00
so if anybody's taking anything away
01:27:01
from this there can be cheating but it
01:27:04
cannot swing the president okay so
01:27:05
Jason's going in can I make a um a point
01:27:08
so you mentioned uh I think fraud rates
01:27:11
credit card fraud rates didn't you I
01:27:13
think that's one of the things you
01:27:13
mentioned well the same way we don't
01:27:17
worry about credit C fraud because
01:27:19
there's a certain tiny amount of it in
01:27:20
the system now in this case it would be
01:27:23
a magnitude more than voter fraud voter
01:27:26
fraud is extremely rare because there's
01:27:28
no there's no incentive to cheat that
01:27:33
would be worth going to jail for and
01:27:35
that's why people generally don't cheat
01:27:37
in these elections because the cost is
01:27:39
so great I was the COO of a payments
01:27:41
company so let me actually sorry that
01:27:43
was sax sorry go ahead s let me explain
01:27:46
how this actually works since I was
01:27:48
founding Co of
01:27:50
payp massive amounts of credit card
01:27:52
fraud can I just explain this to the
01:27:53
audience sure you can create all the
01:27:56
models you want and you can create an
01:27:58
expectation of future fraud based on the
01:28:01
prior fraud rates however if you change
01:28:04
your verification standards that data is
01:28:07
no longer relevant if you create a
01:28:09
loophole big enough for a fraudster to
01:28:11
drive a truck through then if a
01:28:14
fraudster figures that out you could
01:28:16
have infinite amounts of fraud the in
01:28:18
other words the historical fraud rate
01:28:20
may not be predictive of future fraud if
01:28:22
you change the verification a standards
01:28:25
and I would say that the state of
01:28:27
California signing a bill that prohibits
01:28:29
voter ID might be such a loophole so I
01:28:32
don't see how you can say with this kind
01:28:35
of certainty and confidence you're
01:28:36
saying that no fraud could ever swing an
01:28:39
election of course fraud could swing an
01:28:40
election could swing the presidential
01:28:42
election it could swing a tiny election
01:28:44
in a state or in a local place of course
01:28:46
it could because there's a very in
01:28:48
finding out what I believe is that I'm
01:28:51
talking logic would you do 11,000 th000
01:28:54
is the question it would be incredibly
01:28:56
difficult to do 11,000 Trump tried to
01:28:59
swing 11 if you create a big enough
01:29:00
loophole it doesn't sound that hard to
01:29:01
me it just doesn't matter of common
01:29:03
sense I don't think you can say that
01:29:04
something is impossible what we should
01:29:06
do is simply tighten up these
01:29:08
requirements we're agreement about that
01:29:10
I'm just talking about this election
01:29:12
voter ID in this election you don't have
01:29:14
to worry 35 out of 50 starting in
01:29:17
January we pass a national voter ID law
01:29:20
minimum standard we all agree on that
01:29:21
100% we all agree on that yes I'm just
01:29:23
saying this election practically 35 out
01:29:25
of 5050 states have voter ID and the
01:29:27
ones that don't the closest margin is
01:29:30
11,700 this time happek we'll see you
01:29:34
we'll see on Tuesday night with Phil
01:29:36
helmuth on a short leash for the
01:29:40
dictator chath ptia your sulan of
01:29:43
Science and the
01:29:44
architect I am the world's greatest
01:29:48
moderate moderator we'll see you next
01:29:51
time
01:29:51
[Applause]
01:29:53
byebye let your winners
01:29:55
ride Rainman
01:30:00
David and in said we open source it to
01:30:02
the fans and they've just gone crazy
01:30:04
with it queen
01:30:07
[Music]
01:30:13
of Besties
01:30:15
are that's my dog taking I your
01:30:19
driveway man oh man my habiter will meet
01:30:23
me at we should all just get a room and
01:30:25
just have one big huge orgy cuz they're
01:30:27
all this useless it's like this like
01:30:28
sexual tension that they just need to
01:30:30
release
01:30:31
[Music]
01:30:36
somehow we need to get
01:30:42
[Music]
01:30:46
mer I'm doing
01:30:49
[Music]
