00:00:00
hey everybody hey everybody welcome to the all in podcast with us today again the queen of quinoa
david friedberg david sacks the rain man himself
00:00:11
and of course the dictator here chamoth
and let's get ready it's it's time
00:00:19
off and saks here it comes everybody
00:00:26
saks is ready in the red representing
richard nixon ronald reagan
00:00:34
and rich people everywhere dave in the rain man
sacks somebody's got a new corner representing
00:00:45
lbj underserved the forgotten the
underdogs the woke left chamoth papa
00:01:08
and they've just gone crazy with them
00:01:16
and and i will also be representing john f
kennedy who said arising who said a rising
00:01:22
tide lifts all boat and maybe even some bill
clinton bill clinton bill clinton i was gonna say don't forget the championship for the
champion of the left and the right yeah
00:01:31
bill clinton did a great job he ended he ended
the welfare state all right so here we go folks um
00:01:38
in in show housekeeping we do need to point
out that uh we we've been running some polls
00:01:46
the fans of the show have been running polls and i
i don't even know why i'm bringing this up because i got barbecued in them but we have three balls we
need to share with the audience from twitter the
00:01:57
first is if you could have just one of the all in
pod besties to mentor you and your startup growth who would it be and why looks like rain man
you ran away with that one with 39 percent the
00:02:07
dictator with 34 queen of quinoa coming in at 17
and uber's their fourth investor came in with the
00:02:13
measly eight percent i will tell you this is this
is why 83 of startups fail they choose the wrong
00:02:20
mentor perfect so i was i was proud to win this
one but the truth is so tremoth was slightly ahead
00:02:28
and then i put my thumb on the scale by retweeting
the poll because obviously my followers are more likely to vote for me so then i shot ahead and
i kept real quiet because i didn't want your mom
00:02:40
retweeting it to his 1.2 million followers and
if he had done that he probably would have blown me out of the water but i kept real quiet until
the time elapsed and then i and then i shared it
00:02:49
with the group no nobody keeps a track of uh
followers but uh it's actually closer to 1.5
00:02:57
the only person who knows your follower account
better than you is phil hellmuth actually every
00:03:05
morning phil hellmuth subscribe uh subtracts his
number of subscribers from yours to know the net
00:03:11
all right second poll came up thanks matt for this
by the way matt yarger no friend of mine all right
00:03:17
per request let's do another poll and see the
other side of the story if you could have just one of the all-impod besties moderate your podcast who
would you choose and it turns out the dictator 31
00:03:30
to my point six percent a full one percent more
than me i came in second world's best wingman
00:03:38
and rain man twenty-one percent queen of kings
sixteen percent and then most importantly which
00:03:44
bestie would you want in your on your side in a
bar fight i would say smooth velvety voice that
00:03:49
uh that ran away for him here hmm thank you yes i
think i think that you know i think the audience
00:03:55
is just trying to hurt jason i think they're
just trying to hurt jason that was it that was it
00:04:01
jason has heard he's inadequate by
more than one percent for a long time
00:04:08
i mean people usually it's measured in inches
not percentages somebody was dunking on me on twitter and they're like you're the poorest of
all your friends i was like that's the strategy
00:04:17
always have more powerful and richer friends
than you then you don't have to worry about picking up the check okay uh and then there was
another interesting ai breakthrough this week
00:04:28
wait wait wait did you talk about the bar fight
what was the bomb curious the bar fight one hold on you're right i didn't get to that one uh the
bar fight was oh here we go for some reason these
00:04:40
morons seem to think that your stick legs are
going to help them in a fight bro that's a bad
00:04:45
i honestly i i need to correct this like
that was maybe bad lighting or a bad camera
00:04:54
no stop
00:05:04
guys guys guys guys honestly come on they are
not as skinny as people seem to be railing and
00:05:11
honestly i'm i'm happy to you know if
if there's a standard way of measuring
00:05:16
okay you know what jason if there's a standard
way if somebody can tell us what is the standard way of measuring leg circumference i'm happy
to submit my my my measurements i don't think
00:05:26
they're that skinny they're really really
anorexic it's super disturbing thank you
00:05:32
you got a lot going on up top i'm very proud of
you but below the belt it's not true bro i work on my legs a lot you know it's it's it's keep working
it's legs and abs to keep your back straight i'll
00:05:42
tell you guys one thing this this uh podcast will
win in a poll is the hosts talk about themselves
00:05:47
more than any other podcast on the internet if
we need to talk about each other in order to make
00:05:53
fun of each other yeah this should be called
the naval gaze podcast all right here we go so uh besties that you most want in a fight queen
of quinoa coming in dead last yeah i'm coming in
00:06:02
at 17 rain man 32 percent and chamath i guess that
thirst trap you tweeted got you 39 in that bowl
00:06:11
the other thing these polls take me is
is why democracy doesn't work but go on i can i can hold my own in a physical
altercation i because i think
00:06:22
saks is going to be under the table calling
9-1-1 and freeburg is going to try to talk it out and get just absolutely sucker-punched
like guys we don't really need to fight
00:06:33
jason jason is the one that would smash the beer
bottle create a shiv and say let's go i i would
00:06:40
i would have jason uh i would i would actually
pick jason his number and if you were going to be in a bar jason certainly touts his taekwondo
skills on more than one occasion he's claimed
00:06:50
to be an expert in taekwondo can we pull
up the video isn't there a video of you
00:06:55
now where's the video of jason pushing hellmuth
fake news video if you want to see jason
00:07:03
and a grown man another grown 50 year old
overweight man fighting we have video yeah
00:07:09
well that that one i don't know if we should show
but nick you should definitely insert the image of jaecal trying to do the taekwondo kick and it
looks like he's about to have a herniated groin
00:07:21
yeah i was from my 20s all right let's start
jason what do you got what do we got this week i guess the topic we should get right to is
inflation um this is a topic we've been talking
00:07:30
about a whole bunch uh because
we're printing a ton of money everybody seems to think the hedge against
inflation is to buy bitcoin or do you put your
00:07:38
money into equities and are we actually going
to see things other than homes and education
00:07:45
massively inflate we've seen some anecdotal
evidence of this tesla increased the price
00:07:50
of their cars used cars have gone up in price
which is a function of the lack of production
00:07:56
of some cars during the pandemic so there might
be a multitude of factors there but just putting
00:08:02
it out there are we going to go are we going to
face inflation that you know goods and services are going to just go through the roof and cost or
do we have enough efficiency in the system that
00:08:11
the average consumer is not going to see massive
inflation on the products and services they buy coming out of the point is is it the real issue
that chamas says inflation is good and he because
00:08:20
it creates equality and he thinks 1979 was a great
year i think we should go straight to that all
00:08:26
right let's go let's go give a general discussion
let's let's go i think we should go to chamoth to
00:08:31
explain his tweet storm and then i'll respond okay
so i think david you got unnecessarily emotional
00:08:39
and personal that was not again these these were
things that i've learned from someone who i will say without betraying him um is an extremely
well-respected person at an extremely well-known
00:08:54
institution that basically has helped make a lot
of sort of you know capital allocators very smart
00:09:01
about things and has made people a lot of money
so i was relaying what i learned through him so
00:09:06
let me just relay that again and i'll just start
with this whenever you have a dollar of income
00:09:13
you can do one of two things with that income
you either consume things right so you buy or
00:09:20
you can save and you can put it into investments
for the future right so consumption and investment
00:09:25
the reality is that most people so the lower 60
of the income distribution essentially spends
00:09:32
above their income right the lowest
actually spends at so a dollar earned is a dollar spent and then the middle two because
they have access to credit a dollar earned they
00:09:41
spend about you know uh percentage points
more than that when you get to the richest
00:09:48
uh 20 of the population they're actually
able to save and they save about 13 cents
00:09:53
of every dollar and they're able to invest in the
future so consumption and investment the reality is inflation comes through a volume of activity
right so you as a rich person can go and buy one
00:10:04
100 000 necklace at tiffany's it doesn't move the
needle for inflation but when you know 200 000
00:10:11
people buy a thousand dollar television that's
felt in the economy it moves so inflation comes
00:10:18
because of gross tonnage of volume so you need
consumption and by definition what that does is
00:10:24
it pushes consumption into those you know that 60
to 80 percent of people that are not the top 20
00:10:31
so what it means is that you know you have a
volume game of people buying things and when
00:10:37
they buy more of those things inflation goes up
how do they buy more things they have more income
00:10:43
because their propensity is to consume so then you
have to ask yourself where is this incremental uh
00:10:49
income coming from and all he has observed which i
think is very credible is we had the supernatural
00:10:56
event in the pandemic we've now started to print
trillions of dollars of incremental consumption
00:11:02
and that's going to start to lead to the most
simple ways in which consumption manifests in inflation which is via commodity prices what
does that mean let me say it simply a rich person
00:11:12
lives in a well-insulated house drives an
electric car and eats fish a less rich person
00:11:20
lives in a poorly insulated house lives
you know drives a an suv and eats beef
00:11:27
beef versus fish as a simple example it
consumes 20 30 50 100 times more input costs
00:11:34
to generate that same pound of protein than a fish
does it's just an example of showing how income
00:11:39
distributions and the effects and the consumption
patterns of large swaths of people drive different
00:11:45
consumption behaviors which drive inflation so
all he was trying to represent to me was that idea
00:11:51
which is that we have printed trillions of dollars
we are creating artificial levels of consumption
00:11:59
that consumption will actually drive up commodity
prices commodity prices will actually drive up
00:12:04
inflation then what he told me was the best
analogy again it's not perfect but it rhymes
00:12:13
to the history is what actually happened in
the 1970s which is that by having this sort of
00:12:20
boundary condition you have to ask yourself what
will happen if inflation rips higher and you know
00:12:26
starting in the late 60s through the 70s that's
kind of what you had a same kind of boundary can
00:12:35
forget the way in which the money got to people
you know in this case it was a government check
00:12:40
but in the late 60s and early 70s we had
similar kinds of programs we had head start we have uh you know americorps we had food
stamps act we had the social security act
00:12:50
all of these things were transfer payments and
when you put that much money into the hands of a large swath of people consumption went up
commodity prices went up inflation went up
00:13:01
it peaked in 1979 but it also happened that
when that happened the gap between the rich
00:13:06
and the poor was the lowest it had ever been and
so i thought that that was a really interesting thing to observe okay sex you uh were
triggered you were triggered by this
00:13:17
well i wasn't triggered i just said it was
jamal's worst take ever and then uh david but
00:13:23
david it wasn't like it wasn't my take you
were triggered it wasn't my takeaway no no okay well let me let me explain let me explain
what's wrong with the take i created a powerpoint
00:13:35
i pulled at your moth no it's not boring and and
chamoth has done it too so don't don't even go there but i'm gonna do email you guys come and
hit me up in the second half no no free bird
00:13:44
we're gonna keep the freedberg index high so go
ahead sacks take us through the powerpoint what is it what do you want i'll i'll keep this quick okay
so i've called the powerpoint jamas horseback ever
00:13:56
david david it says right at the top of
the disclaimer here is something i learned today why isn't it well you said you responded
to me then saying that i didn't like facts so
00:14:07
that was your response so i am proving i'm going
to show you some facts okay so first of all let's
00:14:13
ask the question was 1979 a good year i don't
think you can just cherry pick this one number the the ginny index and say that this was some
sort of great year 1979 a severe recession begins
00:14:24
which ultimately leads to negative 0.3 gd growth
in 1980. the word stagflation misery index become
00:14:31
household terms we had unemployment of six percent
on its way to seven point two percent in 1980 we
00:14:37
had a 13.3 percent inflation rate the prime rate
for 30-year mortgage was eleven point two percent
00:14:44
good luck trying to buy a house we had long
lines of the gas pump there was an oil embargo do you guys remember the gas pump lines i wasn't
born yet but go on yeah it was crazy and then you
00:14:55
know jimmy carter declares a national crisis
in confidence this was the so-called malay speech he was well on his way to becoming
a one-term president so what this shows is
00:15:05
david that you know david hold on no no let me
just do the takeaway so the takeaway is that
00:15:10
you know the ginny index says 1979 was a great
year and you know the the issue is the reason
00:15:16
it wasn't is because it's a lot easier to make
everyone equally poor than ever than equally rich when the economy does poorly guess what the
gap shrinks um then margaret thatcher had a great
00:15:26
line about this so long as the gap is smaller
they would rather have the poor be poorer that's a great video everyone should watch on her last
speech to parliament chamath posted this chart
00:15:38
showing this is the the percentage of
wealth held by the top point one percent chamath we'll go to you next to explain
one two and three but let me just point out
00:15:46
look at when else the genie index was plummeting
the 1930s the great depression did a great job
00:15:51
creating relative equality by making everyone poor
so my point is yeah i understand there are these
00:15:56
equalities but you know what creates inequality
economic booms that's what creates inequality
00:16:02
what we should care about is not just inequality
but economic growth real wage growth poverty
00:16:08
how many people are below the poverty line and
concentrations of power so that's what we should be looking at not just this gini coefficient let
me stop there i've got other sides but i'll stop
00:16:17
there and let you respond sex go back one slide
um the the the three points there were just uh
00:16:23
interesting to me number one was uh lbj and the
war on poverty and all those social programs
00:16:29
number two and you spoke about this but i don't
think you're doing a full accurate assessment what carter's what carter's biggest mistake was
was he stopped the transfer payments because lbj
00:16:40
started them nixon continued them carter
stopped them and i think it's important to frame
00:16:46
explain what transfer payments are for people
who don't understand well it's basically like you know there there are all kinds of ways to get
money into the hands of individuals you know we
00:16:54
we now talk about universal basic income that's a
way of transferring money from the government and
00:17:00
from systemic holders of capital to individuals
um food stamps was a way the social security was a
00:17:07
way um there's all kinds of different ways welfare
was away until clinton disassembled that so i i
00:17:14
think that what we'll never know is what would
have happened if carter hadn't actually stopped
00:17:21
those balance of payments and the the key point
is about what happened then afterwards in three
00:17:28
so you had this basically stopping by carter
he didn't get to he didn't get to reap any of
00:17:34
the benefits of it reagan comes in and says you
know what we're going to simplify the tax code we're going to defund all kinds of stuff
including for example all the mental health
00:17:42
defunding that he had already done in california
that spewed people with mental health disease onto the streets of san francisco and los angeles
and that sort of continued and then the real
00:17:54
cataclysmic change on top of all of this which
sealed the fate of that trendline happened
00:17:59
in point number three which is when george george
bush in 2001 had this really seminal decision
00:18:06
which is he had the ability to block china from
entering the wto and instead he left them in and
00:18:13
he traded that for a vote on the security council
and when you think about what really happened there you unleashed one billion people willing
to do anything at a cheaper faster and better
00:18:23
rate you ushered in globalization you ushered
in the gutting of the middle class of america
00:18:29
and you transferred all that wealth creation
that could have happened in a more inefficient but in a in a balanced way that could
have benefited americans and you ship
00:18:37
them abroad to china so i think it's just
interesting to note that basically since 1979
00:18:44
we've all been singing from the same playbook
and and i think that maybe what we need to do
00:18:50
is figure out whether we need to come back to
this idea of shifting the balance of payments
00:18:56
back into the hands of individual consumers
and all i'm saying is without making a judgment is when you look at what um biden
has done in just in the first 60 days
00:19:07
1.9 trillion dollars of uh stimulus and a proposed
three trillion dollar stimulus package we're just
00:19:14
you know we're not even infrastructure packaged
we're not even three months into his presidency and you forecast that forward it feels like
we're entering an era of spend spend spin
00:19:24
and that was an opinion of mine which
i believe is actually fairly accurate i do think it will drive inflation i do think
it'll drive commodity prices and i think
00:19:34
on balance i do think it will suppress the wealth
creation of the rich and i do think it will give
00:19:39
folks that don't necessarily have investments the
ability to make more unreal income which they will
00:19:45
spend well okay just just quickly so i'm going to
begin by agreeing with the the part of chamath's response that i agree with which is uh what
happened around 2000 2001 which killed wage growth
00:19:56
for the average worker chamath is right about that
but it was it wasn't just george w bush it was a
00:20:01
bipartisan disaster in 2000 bill clinton pushes
congress to approve the u.s china trade agreement
00:20:08
and gave them full access to the wto this was
basically temporary mfn and look at what he
00:20:15
said he said economically this agreement is the
equivalent of a one-way street it requires china to open its markets to us in new ways and it
turned out to be a one-way street the other way
00:20:25
and then he also said that for the first time
our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in china made by workers here in america
without being forced to relocate manufacturing to
00:20:33
china will be able to export products without
exporting jobs well gee the exact opposite happened so and then and then what happens in
2001 is bush makes this situation permanent he
00:20:43
grants permanent what's called permanent normal
trade relations which basically mfn status
00:20:48
in perpetuity to china granting them full
access to our markets and chamath is right
00:20:54
that that devastated the average worker because
all of a sudden they're being forced to compete with you know foreign labor that's potentially
making two dollars a day and is not subject to
00:21:03
the same labor laws and environmental laws as
workers in the u.s are so i agree with tremoth
00:21:09
about what happened then but but i got to go back
and clean up this view of what happened between
00:21:15
1980 and 2000 because that's where i think
we have this this disagreement let's talk
00:21:20
about the china thing for a second yeah
we made a mistake there we got hood winked
00:21:26
we don't have access to their market i think it
would be good to pause for a second and say okay we tried this experiment for 20 years there was
some good that came out of it our companies were
00:21:36
able to grow and become the dominant players
in the world like apple uh but an amazon right
00:21:41
we did capture a lot of this value and a lot of
people came out of poverty in china i guess on
00:21:46
the margins that's a good thing we can all agree
but it's a communist country and we basically enabled a communist country to become essentially
you know uh our counterparty in running the planet
00:21:58
and in our leadership positions on the planet
what do we do now in terms of unwinding this is there a way to roll this back or do we just
mute it from this point forward and how does
00:22:07
it become a two-way street or is that just
not even possible as we've seen with the nba and some other companies twitter google just not
being allowed to even operate in china who's we
00:22:18
america the united states the united states i
mean citizens u.s companies global companies i mean yeah you know i think that the the challenge
is your your framework right guys i think i think
00:22:28
there's one big thing you're forgetting in 2001
which is i think that bush actually traded away
00:22:34
access to the wto so that they could guarantee
china's vote when he wanted to go to war with iraq which happened in 2003 okay well two
dumb decisions that got worse by being put
00:22:44
together all i'm saying is it was a trade it was
a trade he traded he traded access to he traded
00:22:50
access to the wto in return for their support
for a u.n resolution to go to war with iraq
00:22:55
look i you know you chamath you said that i
was defending the republican point of view i'm not i'll be the first to say that george w bush
was his presidency was a disaster i think it'll
00:23:05
go down as one of the worst he got us into all
these stupid foreign wars in the middle east he
00:23:10
began them i think the decisions with china
were a mistake um so i certainly don't want
00:23:15
to defend that and by the same token i think
the clinton years were generally great years in america so this is not a partisan free analysis
on my part what do you think though about the
00:23:24
china concept here and how we would go forward
and what's what's the path forward with china
00:23:31
i i i mean again like i think it comes down to
your objective and who are you solving for um
00:23:37
and uh who should we solve for democracy the human
species well i mean i feel like they're mentally
00:23:44
the point of view that you know one government
is innately better than another is being tested and proven right and wrong every day right now
and um and i'm not sure that it's fair to say
00:23:55
that just because the form of government that the
you know that the chinese have kind of um adopted
00:24:02
and used to govern their their their country
and their people uh is innately wrong um there's
00:24:07
certainly things that are innately wrong in many
democracies and that are innately wrong in many uh non-democratic republics and so i'm not sure
it's fair to just say that um you know that that's
00:24:18
really the objective is let's get rid of that
communism i mean that was an easy kind of simple you know check that you could use a few decades
ago as a way to kind of rally everyone emotionally
00:24:27
towards some cause but um i i think there's a lot
of businesses today that operate effectively in
00:24:33
their own kind of geopolitical cloud and it's a
little bit um of a kind of misstatement to think
00:24:39
that an american company is an american company
it's not that american quote-unquote american companies solely build their stuff and sell
their stuff in the united states many americorps
00:24:49
american companies build stuff overseas and sell
stuff overseas and global is uh globalization as
00:24:54
much as we might want to kind of poo poo the
effects it's had on the average quote-unquote american worker it really has transformed
the way businesses operate with respect to
00:25:06
politics and countries there's a oh god what's the
book i can't remember the book but there's a book
00:25:13
that speaks to how a lot of large multinational
corporations today effectively have to operate
00:25:18
as if they were countries into and unto themselves
and so they have competing interests with respect to what the average american or the american
government or the american people might have
00:25:28
even though they might be quote unquote american
companies and there might be some intricate tie and so i'm not sure it's as simple as we
have to quote unquote defeat china we are so
00:25:37
intricately tied to the uh to the economy of
china to the workers of china and vice versa
00:25:44
um and i think that it's a much more complicated
thing than you know here's our three-point checklist for how do we quote unquote beat china
and that's that's why it's hard and that's why
00:25:52
i think a lot of smart people have you know kind
of taken on and been challenged by and failed at
00:25:57
trying to resolve a path forward where there's
this quote-unquote looming enemy that is going to become the global economic power which strips
the american uh uh people of their influence
00:26:08
around the world and you know that may be kind
of the inevitability of the 21st century i don't think that there's a dark inevitability if but i
don't know if there's a simple easy answer and i
00:26:16
don't know if from a from a business point of view
let's say i'm a company i'm not sure i necessarily
00:26:22
feel the effects of one quote-unquote country
affecting you know having more influence globally
00:26:27
with other countries than others it turns out a
lot of businesses have greater influence than a lot of governments um and so you know one way to
kind of think about the evolution of globalization
00:26:37
and maybe even with respect to kind of the notion
of what we've been talking about decentralization is that maybe governments themselves become
less important uh in the 21st century
00:26:46
and it's the kind of decentralized online
movements and businesses and and you know other kind of entities that perhaps are not as
regulated and controlled and owned by governments
00:26:55
and you know maybe the big failure of the
21st century will be governments we'll see
00:27:00
chamath yeah that's on uh sorry that was a bit
esoteric but um no no i think it's yeah it is
00:27:07
the thing the thing that you're not willing to
acknowledge is that even when gdp shrinks it's like a it's a it's it's shrinking from a base
where there's substantive growth year over year
00:27:15
like you know our the gdp in 1969 when lbj was
president was less than a trillion dollars and the gdp now is like 23 and a half trillion
dollars and so it's been nothing essentially
00:27:25
but a straight line up and so you know this
idea that we the inflation causes you know
00:27:31
the only way that we close the wealth cap is by
making everybody poor is not true some people
00:27:37
may be getting less rich at the same rate so
they feel poorer but the idea that you actually become poor is just not true it's a feeling
that you have but it's not rooted in fact
00:27:47
so when you look at the wealth gap are you
concerned about the gap or are you concerned with
00:27:54
you know the status of the folks on the bottom
and how much their lot in life has gotten better
00:28:00
yeah i mean i'm concerned with both um actually
there i have a slide on this too i would buy
00:28:06
this argument and i've heard this argument from
before from people not as smart as david i would buy this argument if gdp did something other
than go up in an absolute straight [ __ ] line
00:28:17
no it doesn't it doesn't well hold on let me i'm
going to show let me show gdp in a second the first thing i want to discover is that part of the
problem with the genie index is it doesn't fully
00:28:26
account for government transfers this is something
i didn't fully know until i researched it um after your tweet stormtroom but basically only two
percent of the population so the publicly reported
00:28:36
stats are that 13.5 of the us population lives
in poverty once you actually take into account
00:28:42
all these programs and transfer payments uh it's
more like two percent you can see this on this chart in the left here that the green represents
the transfer payments by the way i'm not against
00:28:52
transfer payments i think we need a social
safety net i want the social safety net to be
00:28:57
as effective as possible i don't want it to trap
people in government dependency i want it to work
00:29:03
i wanted to get people out of poverty and into
the opportunity economy but i absolutely believe
00:29:08
we need a social safety net and we need these
transfer payments and you can see that the green bars there make a huge difference in reducing
poverty the genie index doesn't really take that
00:29:18
into account well how do you fund this these types
of transfer payments the more of a of a stronger
00:29:24
economy that you have the more that you have a
government the more that you have an economic boom the more that you see real wage growth and
the ability to fund these programs let's go back
00:29:32
to let's just look at gdp for a second so if
you go back to let's go back to this period
00:29:38
82 to 2 000 i call this the reagan clinton
boom i see this is a bipartisan a relatively
00:29:44
bipartisan period where under reagan and clinton
you had gdp growth of almost four percent
00:29:49
compared to the usual two two and a half
percent by the way this is why reagan and clinton left office with huge approval numbers
despite scandals remember reagan had iran contra
00:29:59
clinton had lewinsky none of that mattered really
in the eyes of the american people because the economy was so strong and you can see that here
and by the way it hasn't been this strong in the
00:30:09
2000s we've never really gotten back to this type
of economy um you know since since uh you know
00:30:16
2009. is that because of the economic boom of the
pc and internet eras what would we attribute to
00:30:23
the technology boom has a huge impact but
let me just describe what started it okay what's what happened in 1981 reagan's inaugurated
as president in january of 1981 he cuts the top
00:30:35
marginal income tax rate from 70 to 50 percent
and i'd say equally important you had paul
00:30:40
volcker at the fed he breaks inflation he jacks
up interest rates causes a very severe recession
00:30:46
in 1982 but it broke the back of hyperinflation
and we it ushered in decades of declining interest
00:30:53
rates you can see that on this chart here interest
rates have more or less been in the decline since paul volcker was at the fed what does this do it
made the the um it reduced the the the risk-free
00:31:03
rate of return which leads to more investment
in um in everything in everything it leads to
00:31:09
more investment it caught caused a rally in the
bond market and the stock market and by the way
00:31:14
no one remembers mod in a modern area i'm sorry
sex but like most interest rates for buying a home mortgage rates were over six and a half percent
for most of the um yeah it was 15. the last
00:31:24
couple of decades yeah yeah good luck good luck
buying a home in the 1970s david like david david
00:31:30
can you like can you actually be intellectually
honest and overlay aggregate actual gdp on this
00:31:36
chart because what you'll see is it goes up and
to the right independent of all of this [ __ ]
00:31:42
no they're that's not true you can't
it's absolutely true and i'll just can i share my screen gdp growth rate versus
no threat forget growth rate what is the actual
00:31:54
number right we're talking about the real number
not the percentage growth because i was actually about to ask the real numbers this is great i
know this is talking about change in gdp i know
00:32:04
i'm talking about grade 2 mathematics here
guys the absolute number the absolute number keeps going up and to the right because no it
doesn't these these these dots that are below
00:32:14
zero are recessions right right but they're
in which gdp is restricted those are changes from the year before so when you're compounding
naturally no no no no the green and red bars at
00:32:23
the very bottom are changes from the year before
but these are absolute percentage changes in gdp
00:32:28
i know so the recession a recession is defined as
two quarters of negative growth so gdp can go down
00:32:36
david can i just show you the aggregate gdp growth
from 1960 to 2000 and you can just look at this
00:32:41
and tell me what's what what is wrong with the
trading economics website that that everybody
00:32:46
else would use yeah i mean i i think one of the
things that i have as a question for everybody
00:32:52
is is there a is there a major difference between
uh two percent two and a half percent three
00:32:58
percent growth in terms of how we all experience
our lives and what are we optimizing there for
00:33:06
are we optimizing for consistency or are we opt
and you know no recessions well this is what's interesting so do you see this chart right here
it's perfectly consistent with the exception this
00:33:15
is the aggregate gdp okay it started off
at less than a trillion in 1950 something
00:33:21
it was about you know a trillion dollars at
1968 and it's about 23 trillion dollars now
00:33:28
this is the aggregate of what has happened
in the american economy over the last 70 years compounding interest is an amazing thing now
exactly right now this has happened in democratic
00:33:38
presidencies republican presidencies when rates
were at 16 percent when rates were at zero percent
00:33:44
so all i'm saying is we have a natural tendency
and inertia to move forward the rate of change
00:33:50
we can debate and obviously it has ebbed and
flowed over years but the fact that it's towards
00:33:55
moving forward and downhill with increasing
momentum is undeniable and so again i would
00:34:00
ask when we think about the fact that the natural
tendency is that the next five or ten year period
00:34:06
in aggregate will become bigger and better
there'll be more of the pie to share
00:34:12
why is inflation a bad thing because all it does
is depress financial assets it drives up earnings
00:34:17
and income which drives up consumption of
the lower three or four quartiles of the
00:34:22
lower three quartiles of the earnings population
i just don't see why it's such a bad thing
00:34:28
i think i think mild mild inflation you
know in the two to four percent range is is fine and it's probably better
it's certainly better i would say than
00:34:37
two to four percent deflation but when you start
to get runaway inflation like we did in the 1970s
00:34:42
it massively increases interest rates and
that makes it harder for people to buy houses
00:34:47
and borrow money and invest money because now
the risk-free rate of return is higher and uh and
00:34:53
that's that's not only if i know but that only
applies to the top quartile of the population the bottom three quartiles don't give a [ __ ]
about what you just said because they don't do it
00:35:04
um i don't think people want to have to spend 600
on a loaf of bread you know that's it look you
00:35:11
look at venezuela you look at weimar germany you
do not want inflation to get out of control and
00:35:16
it can spiral out of control because once people
start to expect is that realistic though that it will spiral out of control given technological
advances efficiency i mean what you backtrack
00:35:28
you are bringing up i think the the really
brilliant point which is could it really even happen today because if you think about where we
allocate our time and attention and consumption
00:35:36
half of it by definition are things
that are just so naturally deflationary we're all you know we're we're on youtube you
know facebook tick tock all the time those are
00:35:47
naturally deflationary sinks of time and energy
and effort and money right so today to jason's
00:35:53
point like i think that that's actually true i
don't think that it's even possible to actually have hyper inflation anymore where do we
have hyperinflation nfts bitcoin equities
00:36:04
and financial assets financial assets and homes
right i mean and that's a highly regulated and
00:36:09
i guess healthcare and uh educate higher
education those but pretty much anything
00:36:15
that the government's involved in basically well
the government's not involved in nfts and bitcoin
00:36:21
those are the anti-government portfolio but but
by the way healthcare inflation really started in obama because of obamacare yeah anything
that the government's involved in in flights
00:36:30
yeah because if the government's paying the bill
why won't you raise prices there's there's no competitive market there's one customer charge
whatever you want et cetera so to so trump to be
00:36:39
clear i inflation is not my number one concern
right now i'm just saying that it would not be
00:36:45
a good thing to let it get out of control that's
all uh but it's not it's not the biggest concern on my list your main concern is dunking on chamath
for that tweet storm no no i'm not dunking on him
00:36:55
i'm he he dunked on me saying that he basically
turned into a bunch of 15 year old girls who
00:37:01
said something and got misinterpreted on social
media and now we have to work in no no no no no no you i'll tell you and you the audience are the
beneficiaries no i i'll tell you i'll tell you my
00:37:12
my main concern is this idea that economic booms
are not a good thing because you know god forbid
00:37:19
the people at the top might get richer um that's
the problem give it to that then yeah i don't know if you guys have been following um what's
happening with uh the head of operations at or i
00:37:29
guess he's the head of warehouses at amazon amazon
is standing up to elizabeth warren on twitter
00:37:36
they're mixing it up did you guys see these
tweets let's pull up no what let's go what you haven't seen these no jamaat didn't you
donate like some ridiculous amount of money
00:37:44
to elizabeth warren's campaign no 25k just a
little tasty poo it was a little teaser bet and
00:37:50
i and i didn't like what i saw so i had to shut it
down i shut it down on the turn the flop was nice
00:37:58
you limped in you limped in with seven four i
limped in with seven four off suit i put a little
00:38:03
teaser bet out there i didn't like what i saw and
so i folded basically amazon is finally saying
00:38:10
hey we're just gonna st we're gonna stand up when
elizabeth warren or bernie sanders kind of attack
00:38:15
us and attack bezos and they just said listen you
guys set the minimum wage do your job we moved
00:38:22
the minimum wage at amazon to 15 an hour we made
our decision get back to work and set the federal
00:38:28
minimum wage of 15 an hour and stop telling us we
don't pay our taxes because you make the tax law so essentially this dovetails with the hearing i
don't know if you guys watched any of the hearing
00:38:37
with zuckerberg and everybody but basically
they were all it seems like big tech is just
00:38:44
putting their foot down and saying just tell us
what you want us to do because we're doing it we're giving people yes zuckerberg what
zuckerberg and dorsey basically said is
00:38:52
that if you don't like that kind of speech then
why don't you prohibit it instead of telling us
00:38:58
to do it you can't and you won't because you know
it's it's it's a violation the first amendment
00:39:04
so that yeah they were kind of pushing back
on them saying listen if if you have such a problem with it pass a law yeah and this guy dave
clark you guys know dave clark at amazon nope so
00:39:14
this is the guy who's been mixing it up and if the
audience is listening you can see a bunch of this uh on the youtube channel because we will put
in oh wow he's like the number two guy there he
00:39:25
he runs all he runs the entire retail business i
guess yeah so now amazon is on a full court press
00:39:31
to engage with let's call it the socialist
left um i guess they call themselves democratic
00:39:38
socialists because they don't want to be called
socialists and they're saying like listen we give people health care we give them 15 bucks an
hour and if you want to tour the facilities
00:39:46
toilet philly but nobody is peeing in bottles and
then of course the press and a couple of people
00:39:51
showed bottles with pee in them that drivers can't
stop to even go to the bathroom which i think is a
00:39:58
tragedy and horrible people should not have to
pee in bottles i mean they asked me about on cnbc
00:40:03
today i was like this is a serious question like
of course nobody should be peeing in bottles but if you look at this exchange i think we're kind of
hitting the end of this debate which is everybody
00:40:11
kind of agrees we should have health care for
everybody in the country we should have a 15 minimum wage why are we dunking and fighting with
each other when we've got this adversary which is
00:40:21
or two adversaries with russia and china we have
these two crazy adversaries who want to build authoritarian countries and control the economy
and eventually control the planet why are
00:40:30
americans fighting with each other over these
issues i mean this is this is just incredible i just want to read it bernie sanders says i look
forward to meeting with amazon workers in alabama
00:40:39
on friday all i want to know is why the richest
man in the world jeff bezos is spending millions
00:40:44
trying to prevent workers from organizing a union
so they can negotiate for better wages benefits and working conditions to which he replies all we
want to know is why the senator is one of the most
00:40:54
powerful pauls and politicians in vermont for
30 plus years and their minimum wage is still
00:41:00
only 11.75 amazon's minimum wage is 15 plus
great healthcare from day one the senator
00:41:06
should save his finger wagging lecture until
after he actually delivers in his own backyard to your point it is getting to a point
now where folks are like all right guys
00:41:16
so step up and change the laws and change the
incentives and i think that that's going to be
00:41:21
really important saxi you had something that you
uh you were really miffed by uh what zuck said or
00:41:26
something uh at the thing about well well i wha
what zuck was trying to do in that hearing uh
00:41:33
the the sir techery guy what's his name ben
thompson uh strategically i think it's true
00:41:39
no no no no no it's strategy no strategy he
literally said it he came to the poker game
00:41:46
that we do at the d conference uh or the recoil
conference whatever it's called code conference and he said it's structured right it's strategy
first it's the worst name that was ever created
00:41:57
strategy yeah anyway it's 100 bucks a year he's
got like 10 000 people paying for it it's crazy
00:42:03
obviously what what that makes me the way he okay great so the way thank you for that thank
you for that clarification what what ben thompson
00:42:14
wrote the way he describes zuck's statement is
that zuck was pulling up the latter uh on all
00:42:19
the other social networking sites that might
come afterwards and it was look it was one of those tactical maneuvers that's in facebook's
sort of narrow self-interest but it's so
00:42:29
obviously in their self-interest that you
know people slam them for that it's just too machiavellian and basically what zuckerberg said
is listen we now have over 30 000 people doing
00:42:40
content moderation you guys should check you
you the the lawmakers should change section 230
00:42:46
to say that you know you the social media sites
only get section 230 protection the liability
00:42:51
shield if you engage in this kind of content
moderation but if you're a site that doesn't
00:42:56
then you don't get protection well what's what's
zuckerberg trying to do you know small startups can't hire 30 000 people to do content moderation
so this is like classic regulatory capture but
00:43:07
done brazenly in the open at a congressional
hearing i think you're right i think it kind of makes a lot of sense from him that the the
game theory is pretty obvious which is like okay
00:43:16
make it now impossible for anybody to compete
with us and uh you basically lock us in forever it's it's pretty pretty brilliant the question
is what do you think the odds are the politicians
00:43:26
fault for this i think they're they're forcing
their hand now so they don't have to take choice
00:43:31
yeah well i mean the democrats on that committee
have basically been saying that disinformation is a huge problem and you the social media sites
need to correct it you need to control it
00:43:40
and so zuckerberg comes along and says okay
great no problem we've hired 30 000 content moderators we're going to do what you said in fact
we're going to hire more and by the way if you
00:43:49
really want to get tough about this why don't
you modify section 230 to require it well how many other startups can ever hire that number
of content moderators this is creating a moat
00:44:00
that will basically protect zuck and facebook
forever right capture yep and the other crazy thing in this was the this stupid format they
come up with where they give each person who's you
00:44:10
know a senator or a congressman who's or congress
person who's doing the questioning they give them five minutes so they're like i only want a yes no
answer and you're like i'm going to ask you the
00:44:19
most challenging problem in the world i need you
to answer yes or no binary one or zero and it's like well that's not kind of how a nuanced issue
works like section 230 this is going to take some
00:44:28
time can i get one minute to answer the question
two minutes to answer the question and so jack and
00:44:35
zuckerberg and everybody just kind of threw their
hands up they're like i can't answer this in a yes no can you ask me give me 30 seconds to answer
these questions it was pretty ridiculous and then
00:44:43
they were trying to get them all to say that
their platforms were used for the january 6th
00:44:49
insurgency and i don't agree with zuck on
much but he was like no i think the people who were involved in january 6 were responsible for
it so whether that's the president or the people
00:44:59
who broke into the capital they're the ones who
are actually responsible for this you guys didn't
00:45:05
yes so no i well i i i read i read some summaries
of it and i think dorsey actually did a did a
00:45:12
great job and i i like i liked his performance and
let me read you a quote um salana tweeted this so
00:45:19
but he said jack said i don't think these
decisions should be made by private companies or the government which is why we're
suggesting a protocol approach to help
00:45:27
the people make the decisions themselves that
was jack dorsey now that almost sounds like me
00:45:32
if he just changed the word protocol to first
amendment case law so i don't want these companies
00:45:38
or the senate judiciary committee you know
censoring people i want to use a revered external
00:45:44
standard which is the first amendment case law
that's been developed over the last two centuries so jack wants to use a protocol okay but fine but
he's on the right track here which is he's saying
00:45:53
look we don't want to be in the business of having
this power to decide who's gonna have access
00:46:00
to you know to the town square and that's a step
in the right direction but he's also got a project there to turn social networks into open standards
so in other words the way we can all anybody can
00:46:11
make an email client because email is an open
standard anybody can build a web page or a browser because html is an open standard he wants to do
that and he's working on that inside of twitter
00:46:20
where anybody is going to be able to take their
tweets and they're going to be decentralized
00:46:26
there's going to be no central server and
you're going to be able to bring your own algorithm so if you feel the algorithm is
causing you to see extreme views you can
00:46:36
say i want mine to only lean towards i want this
one that leads towards positivity and kindness
00:46:42
right and somebody can make a third party
there's an algorithm that gets rid of jerks you guys probably saw this week but uh a deal
was announced an investment was announced
00:46:52
andreessen sequoia myself and a few
others we did this thing called bitclout
00:46:58
oh i heard about this yeah so what is it
just to give you a sense of it it's like hearing about it separately from a bunch of
people yeah so i mean like the in a nutshell
00:47:06
you know what these guys did was they said
okay well you know we're just going to take you know this entire blockchain concept and we're
going to fork it and we're going to create this
00:47:14
thing where folks can um essentially have one
blockchain they can you know have content around
00:47:23
it and then identify sort of people and nodes and
all of a sudden like we all have this currency
00:47:29
that sits on top of this bitcloud currency
and why that's interesting is their first
00:47:35
app that they built on top of this was basically
a kind of a clone of twitter just kind of as a
00:47:40
proof of concept app and i think jason it's moving
to a place where now people with reputation and
00:47:49
people with trust can actually signal that they
have it and then that's a probably a better way
00:47:55
over time for for for folks like us to figure
out um what is valuable and not valuable what
00:48:02
is trustworthy or not irrespective of whichever
end of the spectrum it's coming in off of and then
00:48:07
if there is disinformation you know
that person's quote unquote bit clout stock right that their token will fall in value um
they'll probably be a lot of interesting apps that
00:48:17
are built on top of this i was really drawn to
the general idea of the project and i think that's
00:48:24
what andreessen and sequoia probably felt as well
so you know there are these interesting solutions there's bitcloud there's jason what you said this
open source project at twitter it's all it's all
00:48:32
going to be really interesting but i think if we
can get to a way where we can quantify reputation and trust that's the another way of around
working around the pulling up the ladder effect of
00:48:42
of what facebook and twitter effectively told
congress this week um i want to talk to you guys about what the hell what the hell is going
on in the suez canal and what does this mean
00:48:50
i mean uh freeburg what the [ __ ] is
this this is unbelievable you know it's so
00:48:57
random um and unfortunate but this this
ship that weighs 200 000 metric tons
00:49:04
uh that's taller it's longer than the empire state
building is tall going through the suez canal
00:49:10
which i think you know there's about a hundred
ships a day go through the suez canal and it's you know the suez canal uh really is um uh you
know kind of an amazing engineering accomplishment
00:49:22
that uh connects the uh mediterranean sea to the
red sea it basically allows ships from asia to
00:49:27
not have to go all the way around africa to get
to europe and the ship goes into the suez canal
00:49:32
and it had a blackout its power went out and so it
just kept cruising without being able to control the steering because there's like friggin power
steering on these massive ships you know like they
00:49:42
don't have like a wire connected to the rudder and
so um you know no backup battery supply i guess
00:49:49
no one knows but like the power went out and the
total blackout on the ship they couldn't get the power back on and the thing just keeps cruising
and cruising and cruising and it cruises right
00:49:57
into the side which is this big sand barrier on
either side of the suez canal and it gets lodged
00:50:02
in the sand barrier on the side now when you have
200 000 metric tons moving at a few miles an hour
00:50:07
that's an incredible amount of momentum of energy
and so it when it lodges in the side that's you
00:50:13
know it's lodged in there now acceleration yeah
it's actually math times velocity but yeah you're
00:50:20
close and so um the thing just uh basically got
lodged in there and they can't get it out and now
00:50:25
they think it's going to take another week or
two before they'll be able to kind of dig all around the sand and tugboat the thing out of
there um but i think what's interesting so 10
00:50:34
of global trade moves through the suez canal
and about 100 of these massive ships a day
00:50:39
you know move through this canal but it really
highlights the fragility of our global supply
00:50:45
chain similar to kind of the experience i think we
had during the covet pandemic when all of a sudden things like toilet paper were less available to
us but you know a small power outage on a boat
00:50:56
on a ship you know uh in the middle of um of the
suez canal can suddenly block up so much of global
00:51:03
trade and cause you know massive fluctuations
and commodity prices and availability of supplies and products for businesses around the world
there's going to be rippling economic effects
00:51:11
for a period of time it's unclear how significant
they're going to be but you know i really do think
00:51:17
that um taking note of the fragility of our
of our supply chain in this particular context is worth taking a step back and you know i
i spent a lot of my personal in my work time
00:51:27
uh obviously off the podcast thinking about kind
of our systems of industry and you know the global
00:51:33
industrial revolutions were really predicated on
this notion of centralization you know we took
00:51:39
a lot of our production systems and we centralized
them and created automated repeatable tasks
00:51:44
and that reduced the cost and allowed us per unit
of production to basically make things much more
00:51:50
affordably but the problem with centralization
generally speaking in supply chains is exactly this which is you you have a supply chain um
that is much more delicate and it is much more
00:52:01
i mean think about the difference in power
right if the power goes out at a power plant all the homes that are connected to it lose power
versus if every home had their own power generator
00:52:09
or solar cells they could continue to support
themselves and in a similar context so much and this goes back to our conversation earlier about
globalization so much of our global supply chain
00:52:18
for industry has become centralized by finding
the lowest cost possible but it loses all of its
00:52:24
durability and so the 21st century and especially
leading into this infrastructure bill that we're
00:52:30
going to be talking about or that's going to be
talked about for for a long time now for months to come presents an opportunity for us to think
about durability in industry and durability and
00:52:40
supply chains that i think is really profound
and allows us to shift the balance of um
00:52:46
of power but also shift the scent uh the the
sources of production of all the things we consume
00:52:52
as a species uh in a much more distributed way and
that can be done using green technology using you
00:52:58
know 3d printing using biomanufacturing you know
using um solar there's a lot of vertical farming
00:53:05
vertical yeah whatever um i i'll disagree with you
on that one and we'll talk about that separately but i would argue like so much of of industry
has been centralized because remember when the
00:53:15
industrial revolutions took hold the only skill
set we had as a species was mechanical engineering
00:53:21
and in the years that followed we developed skills
in chemical engineering and ultimately in software
00:53:26
and hardware engineering and now more recently
in biochemical engineering where we can use biological systems to make stuff and the advent of
those technology capabilities i think really gives
00:53:35
us the opportunity today to reinvent these supply
chains and so the suez canal i hope is a little
00:53:41
bit of a wake-up call and i hope leads into some
of the thinking around the infrastructure build proposals where we're about building durability
in the supply chain and in that process by the way
00:53:50
creating manufacturing jobs um you know in a more
distributed way let me build on uh what you're
00:53:55
saying so for all the people listening that really
really care about um electrification and electric
00:54:02
cars and there's a bunch of tesla bulls here
you know tesla uses a specific kind of battery called nca and uh there's you know other forms
of batteries but for the most part and tesla in
00:54:11
china uses this lfp chemistry but the point is
uh there's a lot of very very valuable nickel
00:54:18
that goes into making lithium-ion batteries and so
if you believe in electrification and you believe
00:54:24
in you know zero emissions and you believe
in using these batteries you need to believe in nickel which is a tough business okay you're
you're grabbing you know rock out of the ground
00:54:34
and you're leeching this this extremely important
metal out of it so just a a little while ago
00:54:42
there is a huge nickel manufacturer uh called uh
noralisk nickel right and they have these uh two
00:54:48
russian nickel mines and just very recently they
flooded and uh the plug which had been erected
00:54:56
for localizing the flooding was washed away
not for the first time not for the second time
00:55:01
but for the third time and people now think
that getting all this water out of the mine
00:55:07
may take at least a year okay so what why should
we care well right now if you think about all
00:55:14
the batteries that were forecasted to make in
order to sort of eliminate climate change and you know do all these good things and for you
know tesla to to make their you know beautiful
00:55:23
cars or whomever that you know um they need nickel
and right now we have we have a deficit of nickel
00:55:30
that's going to emerge now in less than a year and
we have we have about a 37 to 40 percent shortage
00:55:37
of what we need so it's like you have all these
grandiose visions of how the world should work
00:55:45
and an electric failure in a barge shuts down the
global supply chain for weeks blood in the nickel
00:55:52
a flood in a nickel mine is going to cause
the price of a tesla to basically double and shouldn't people at some point ask ourselves
is this really what efficiency is supposed to feel
00:56:03
like on the ground and it may not be right and so
maybe again going back to the first conversation
00:56:09
a little bit more inefficiency a little bit more
inflation a little bit more redundancy will allow
00:56:16
us to be resilient and maybe that's what we really
want we don't well i mean you could ask the people in texas what they want after they lost their
power and they have one light snow storm and
00:56:26
the whole city is destroyed i mean there really
is there is something to having the redundancy
00:56:32
in your home and the supply chain and obviously
drugs which we witnessed during the pandemic right
00:56:40
with the infrastructure we were so we were so
concerned about short-term profit maximization
00:56:46
that we offshored our entire pharmaceutical
production and ppe manufacturing to china which
00:56:53
then said that they might ration it to us based
on you know geopolitical concerns no thank you so yeah that that is that is that is pennywise
and pound foolish the absolute definition is
00:57:04
the is the infrastructure bill um going to fix it
freeburg you have a rundown of the infrastructure bill you know there isn't a good cl there isn't
good clarity on this my concern is um that there's
00:57:14
going to be lots of uh push for things like roads
and you know stuff that doesn't create ongoing
00:57:20
jobs that so much money is going to go into
basically a disguised stimulus package versus
00:57:27
you know the ideal kind of infrastructure program
set is to enable industry so if you go back and
00:57:34
you think about like the manhattan project and the
apollo mission you know those were very expensive government programs that have a very specific
mandate but because there were big investments and
00:57:43
difficult problems they unlocked a lot of industry
um that followed that initial development cycle
00:57:49
and i think that that is kind of a good guideline
for us to think about with respect to what we might hope for an infrastructure bill to
do which is to create unlock for industry
00:57:58
as opposed to plowing money into short-term
service contracts with a bunch of guys who are going to make a ton of money building roads and it
doesn't really change the industry very much and
00:58:07
so i'm concerned it's going to be a giveaway of
money that's going to create a short-term stimulus but doesn't really create long-term effects in
the industry but we'll see what kind of comes
00:58:14
out as they get more clarity on this there's
certainly a big push for quote-unquote green but i'm not sure the people that are
quote-unquote green advisors in this in this
00:58:22
context are going to be thinking about this
you know this next century of opportunity you know yeah so so we'll see america is going to
have to have a real come to jesus if they actually
00:58:31
really give a [ __ ] about climate change um i'll
give you an i'll give you a different example like
00:58:36
again to to really electrify you
have to pull metals out of the ground that is a dirty business okay and there are
impacts to the environment even if you're the best
00:58:47
at it and right now in in the western hemisphere
it takes 20 years to green light a mine
00:58:53
20 years our shortages start in the next year
in china they have you know no issues whatsoever
00:59:02
right let's just say so maybe it takes them seven
to ten years to get to get a project greenlit now i'm not advocating that we become china but uh
i think that it's really important for us to
00:59:11
realize that like you know uh if we're gonna
really take this seriously uh you can't have
00:59:18
progress being hijacked by things that may not
matter as much in the grand scheme of things like
00:59:24
there is the opportunity for example to build
a massive set of copper and nickel mines in the
00:59:29
western hemisphere but the minute that they
get greenlit they get there's an injunction that's filed by an ngo that'll say oh you know
we have to think about the land grouse and it's
00:59:37
like like what the [ __ ] is the land grouse uh
and at some point you have to figure out whether
00:59:43
you actually want your kids to have asthma or not
and whether they can suck up you know pm 2.5 and
00:59:49
pm10 for the rest of their lives or you care more
about the land grouse and this is going to come
00:59:55
come to a head and hopefully the infrastructure
bill paves the way for these decisions because i
01:00:00
think as a country we're going to have to decide
because many other countries in order to have
01:00:05
clean air and drinkable water are going to
basically prioritize humans over the land grows
01:00:11
yeah i mean it reminds me of the nuclear
discussion we had earlier in this podcast of like we can't even put a new nuclear power plant in
this country without it taking decades and any
01:00:22
uh any any interesting updates on the business
side i saw uh is microsoft really about to buy discord for 10 billion dollars yeah if you look at
that compared to you know the slack acquisition is
01:00:33
slack got bought for 28 billion with was it 800
million in revenue yearly revenue at the time
01:00:40
and discord has 150 million and they're going for
10. that's unbelievable it's it's an even higher
01:00:45
multiple how do you feel about your summer sale
for 1.2 billion at this point it doesn't mean well
01:00:51
it was it was in hindsight it was probably cheap
it made the market yeah yeah yeah well i mean
01:00:56
back in 2012 we we really thought back in 2012
that one to two billion was like the best case
01:01:04
scenario yeah the upper bound of what a sas exit
would look like we just never realized how big
01:01:09
the market could get and now obviously you have
slack at close to 30 billion you have docusign ipo at 40 billion you have zoom at over 100 billion
and so the markets just ended up so much bigger
01:01:20
than we ever thought and we were the optimists we
were the ones building companies in sas back then and so the cloud has just been so i mean and you
see this now with you know the numbers that azure
01:01:30
and uh google cloud and aws keep reporting where
they're at like tens of billions of revenue
01:01:37
and they're still growing like 40 50 a year so
the cloud is just so much bigger than what we
01:01:43
all thought and what came before so that's what i
mean so i've just decided to stop trying to find
01:01:50
new ideas and just i mean you think like a new
thesis and just keep investing in this that's
01:01:55
why i'm kind of all in on on sas right now do
you think microsoft is doing this to compete
01:02:00
with slack or they're doing it to just really
take over gaming do you have any insights sex
01:02:06
i think probably it's probably an element of
both where uh they do like one of their few
01:02:12
consumer business lines that's done really well is
xbox and gaming and they bought minecraft and so
01:02:18
i think they can get some value out of it there
but i i have to believe that this is competitively driven they got to be worried about slack i mean
the crown jewel at microsoft is the office suite
01:02:28
the reason they bought yammer is to accelerate
the transition of office into cloud social and
01:02:33
mobile and uh and it did help do that and they got
to be worried about salesforce now buying slack i
01:02:40
mean that is benioff has been wanting to go after
office for a long time and this is his way to do
01:02:45
it yeah all right uh there you have it folks uh
another all-in podcast is in the can let me just
01:02:53
ask a question are people making summer plans
and fall plans based on the how much i'm making
01:03:00
i'm making tonight plans i can't
wait to get you victims into the into the poker room sacks i want you to fly in
come and play we need help we need we need a
01:03:09
full bestie victim well sacks what's your plan
tonight like are you going to some fancy like
01:03:15
pasta restaurant with your wife
are you doing popping bottles with yeah yeah who are you hanging out with tonight so
what are you doing yeah what are you doing these
01:03:22
are sometimes i'm not hanging with the kids it's
friday night do you know their names yeah exactly
01:03:33
come to the poker game tell
us your kids middle names
01:03:38
actually that's a good one
01:03:45
who knows i went to the movies last night um
i was i took uh my 11 year old out she went
01:03:51
she was uh uh she wanted to get a shake shack so
i took her to shake shack and the movie theater was there and it was open and i was like oh let's
go check it out of what's going on at the movie
01:04:00
theater and terminator 2 was playing 15 minutes
later great film incredible film holds up and
01:04:06
amazing to see on the big screen we walk in i
kid you not you know 100 seed theater with these beautiful big chairs nobody there and they
were so sorry did you rent the whole thing
01:04:18
no it just happens to be that they're open for
business they space people out and you know it was
01:04:24
five dollars a ticket to see i'm taking my uh i'm
taking my daughters to the movies this afternoon
01:04:30
first time they've ever been to the movies
they're uh you know three and a half and and two
01:04:35
i am so excited to take them to a movie theater so
we rented the whole theater for 99 it's the best deal in town what uh what movie are you seeing
uh trolls you can choose a movie that's the cool
01:04:45
thing there's like a list of like 50 films and you
can pick a film so i got like a little kids film for them and they get to go see a movie theater
and have popcorn and have the experience that'd
01:04:53
be awesome and you can have other friends there
yeah you can have up to 20 people so you rent the whole theater for 99 bucks and you you can
kind of if you want to come see trolls chime
01:05:01
off just cruise up i'll send you a ticket oh
my god that's the coolest [ __ ] thing because kong is happening and i'm renting a theater for
it so if everybody wants to bring their kids
01:05:10
um it's a great my kids would never sleep after
seeing that no it's not for three to five year olds but you know 10 year olds yes it's a hundred
bucks this is an amc theater 99 bucks it's awesome
01:05:21
for amc yeah but the the cinepolis i think charges
200 and that's the like really high-end theater
01:05:27
where you can press a button and the waiter
comes and the waiter was like thanks for coming we really appreciate it like you're one of the
first guests no way there is no way yeah it was
01:05:37
kind of like an emotional moment for me to take
my daughter again because that's what we would do every friday yeah you know school there's no way
movie theaters go out of business i mean they're
01:05:45
just it's such like like a traditional experience
it's so american it's just what tmc's trading at
01:05:50
hmm yeah i wonder if amc would be an interesting
i um jax is sitting this conversation out he's
01:05:55
like i got my movie theater downstairs the
the usher is on standby ready to let me in how many seats are you like oh you can only
rent a 20-seat theater i have a 40-cent theater
01:06:05
how many theaters are do you have built in
your various homes yeah do you only have one
01:06:10
theater for home sacks is it one theater per
home no he's got a multiplex in each in case people want to watch they meet at the popcorn
stand i'm i'm excited to go back to the movies
01:06:24
how excited are you guys to go to disneyland
i i want to take my kids to disneyland yeah i can't wait okay by the way how right how
right were we i think it was like two or three
01:06:36
pods ago we were saying that kova would
be over by memorial day memorial day and even in california gavin newsom basically is
finally capitulated to logic and everybody can get
01:06:46
a shot now as of april uh 15th yeah which means
which means by may 15th everybody who wants to get
01:06:53
vaccinated all it took was a recall in 2.2 million
it took the recall and and shame and shaming him
01:06:59
and berating him on twitter constantly i mean
peter pham was tweeting out like every day the the
01:07:04
growing uh inventories of vaccine and all the open
appointments we all were and it's like ridiculous
01:07:10
we kept at mentioning him five million shots on
shelves in in a pandemic i mean you don't need to
01:07:15
be freeberg to understand how vaccines work each
person's a blocker right yeah and the other thing
01:07:22
the other thing that got newsom to move was that
biden gave that press conference in which he moved
01:07:28
up the date and so then that prompted newsome to
move up his date and the same thing happened like
01:07:33
a month ago when uh when biden gave that that
speech where he uh said he gave that may first
01:07:40
date as a date everyone should get vaccinated
so frankly it'd be nice if we had a governor who would just do the right thing without the constant
threat of recall and tweet shaming and you know
01:07:51
and and and the president dragging him you know
into the future but um but what should we do with
01:07:57
all i'm curious what you guys think of what we
should do with all this extra supply i had an interesting idea for the economy if you come to
america and you've tested that you don't have
01:08:06
covet right you take a test on the before you
get there if you come to america we will give you the vaccine at the airport i think here's what
we're going to do from now on how great with that
01:08:16
you're going to have you're going to have three
little chips a week and you get to put a chip in a jar and then you can suggest one of your
ideas but then once you hit three we're done okay
01:08:27
the economy yeah vaccine tourism like formalized
vaccine towards if you come to america for
01:08:33
vacation complementary vaccines on the way in
i mean we're already at the point everyone's
01:08:40
look i mean look effectively affected no i think
effectively we're going to have that it won't be at the airport but i mean the all the restrictions
are coming off in every state by mid-april now
01:08:50
most people can't afford an international plane
ticket you know they're not like going to come to the u.s to to get a shot i uh i would like to
advocate that we take these extra vaccines and
01:08:59
we ship them to the developing world yeah they
should go south of the border for sure for sure
01:09:04
yeah and by the way we're doing a much better
job vaccinating people than europe i mean it's unbelievable but covet is spiking in europe right
now because they've been so incompetent at getting
01:09:13
people vaccinated well their issue was they didn't
want to shock water ends shockingly incompetent
01:09:18
canadians and the europeans said we want you
to prove to us the vaccine works before we put our order in i don't think that jason i think
i think jason like i think that like sometimes
01:09:28
i think over the last 40 years there's been two
polar opposites of governing people one is what
01:09:35
i would call the autocrat and the other is what i
would call kindergarten soccer where when the ball
01:09:40
no matter where the ball is on the on the soccer
field every player on every team is surrounded
01:09:47
and so as a result no progress is here progress is
bursty and unpredictable and sometimes not great
01:09:53
but it can happen and this is where like you know
so like i mean we are i'm i'm still shocked at
01:10:00
the lack of scientific rigor and understanding by
these people and so how could you have an entire
01:10:08
western set of countries who are theoretically
not stupid be in this situation in april of 2021
01:10:15
knowing what we know yeah well how's
how's brexit how's brexit looking now
01:10:22
because britain is like it's almost fully
vaccinated their covenant numbers are coming way down and then the british variant the british
variant that started in the uk is spreading
01:10:32
like wildfire across europe because they're too
bureaucratic to get everyone vaccinated so i mean
01:10:37
britain is looking really good by comparison right
now and they opted out of kindergarten soccer
01:10:44
yeah and by the way this is just to tie
back to the infrastructure for a second i don't have a problem with infrastructure
if the investments can be spent wisely
01:10:51
but how much of us trust the government to spend
the money wisely as opposed to on pork barrel
01:10:57
spending and wasteful projects and taking too
long we have the bay bridge in san francisco the
01:11:02
original bay bridge took two years to build
and then the the repair of it took 17 years
01:11:07
where they did like the the upgraded version and
that's the problem we have is that nobody really trusts our government anymore to allocate this
money wisely uh just to give people an idea doses
01:11:18
administered per 100 people 39 well now 40 for the
u.s and israel 114 obviously there's two doe shots
01:11:27
uh and uh spain 14 italy 14 canada 12. mexico 4.
my mom who's almost 80 just got her first shot
01:11:37
which i think is inexcusable justin trudeau
if you're listening disaster i just i just
01:11:43
think that's unacceptable unacceptable she's
79 years old it's unacceptable oh god i mean
01:11:50
literally these politicians these politicians and
bureaucrats designed this complicated system to prove that they're helping people it's just like
new south wales it's just all they do is go in
01:12:00
the way equity that's the way all you do is get
in the way the red the red light should go off and you should run far away from whatever
comes after we're going to solve an equity
01:12:09
problem let's go for efficiency let's let's go
yeah all right everybody we'll see you all next
01:12:14
time on the online podcast love you guys love
you best dc tonight see you tonight tonight
01:12:23
bring us some of that bring us some of that saks
crafty poo money come on yeah buy it come on we
01:12:30
won't play pll we'll keep it to hold them yeah we
know if you fly up if you fly up for the evening
01:12:36
you're going to be just fully committed you know
you're going to be playing right hold them only yeah you're right i'll i'll come in tilted
because i'll be a negative jet fuel yes
01:12:47
just go for a coin toss how about if we cover
it we'll just do a flip and we'll cover it
01:12:52
we'll cover your jet fuel wait that's not
a no i didn't hear enough that's not a somebody slow someone said text and tell
her to kick him out of the house tonight
01:13:12
and they've just gone crazy
01:13:22
besties
01:13:44
your feet
01:14:00
you
