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The Cocoa Short Squeeze: Why Cocoa is Trading like Meme Stock

April 02, 2024 / 00:57

This episode covers the recent spike in cocoa prices, the impact of black pod disease on cocoa production, and potential changes in chocolate products.

The discussion highlights how cocoa prices surged from $2,000 to $10,000 per ton, primarily due to a significant decline in production from Ghana and Ivory Coast, which account for 73% of global cocoa supply.

Key points include the role of extreme weather and the spread of black pod disease, which has led to a 50% drop in cocoa production in Ghana.

The episode also addresses how chocolate companies may respond by reducing the size of chocolate bars, increasing prices, and using alternative ingredients.

Listeners can expect to see these changes reflected on store shelves in the coming months.

TLDR

Cocoa prices surged due to production decline from disease, impacting chocolate products and pricing.

Episode

0:57
00:00:00
this is the big news in the commodity markets right now is this parabolic spike in Coco prices Coco's moved in
00:00:05
price from about 2,000 bucks a ton which is where it normally trades at to $10,000 a ton so here's all the Coco
00:00:11
production 73% of it's in Africa mostly in Ghana and Ivory Coast Coco is grown from the cacao tree when you eat a
00:00:17
Hershey's bar for example 11% of that bar is ground up cocoa powder so in Q4 of last year ELO spiked like crazy and
00:00:25
that caused a lot of rainfall to hit the west coast of Africa and as a result result this fungus was spread in cocoa
00:00:32
trees there's a fungus called blackp disease so now if you look at the Coco production out of Ghana you can see that
00:00:37
we've seen them 50% rough decline in Cocoa production so when that happened everyone started to Corner the market
00:00:43
and then all the short sellers got squeezed and it caused this big parabolic jump in price chocolate
00:00:47
companies they're talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars raising
00:00:50
prices and starting to use other ingredients so you'll start to see that happen in the shelves in the next couple
00:00:55
of months

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Episode Highlights

  • Cocoa Prices Skyrocket
    Cocoa prices have surged from $2,000 to $10,000 a ton due to production issues.
    “Coco's moved in price from about 2,000 bucks a ton to $10,000 a ton.”
    @ 00m 08s
    April 02, 2024
  • Production Decline Due to Disease
    A 50% decline in cocoa production has been reported, impacting the market significantly.
    “We've seen a 50% rough decline in Cocoa production.”
    @ 00m 37s
    April 02, 2024
  • Chocolate Bar Changes Ahead
    Chocolate companies may reduce bar sizes and raise prices due to cocoa shortages.
    “Chocolate companies are talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars.”
    @ 00m 47s
    April 02, 2024

Episode Quotes

  • Coco's moved in price from about 2,000 bucks a ton to $10,000 a ton.
    The Cocoa Short Squeeze: Why Cocoa is Trading like Meme Stock
  • We've seen a 50% rough decline in Cocoa production.
    The Cocoa Short Squeeze: Why Cocoa is Trading like Meme Stock
  • Chocolate companies are talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars.
    The Cocoa Short Squeeze: Why Cocoa is Trading like Meme Stock

Key Moments

  • Cocoa Price Spike00:08
  • Production Decline00:37
  • Market Reaction00:44
  • Chocolate Bar Adjustments00:47